Latest / Arroe Collins Like It's Live / President Reagan's Six Minute War Today It's Even Less From Historian Michael Dobbs

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President Reagan's Six Minute War Today It's Even Less From Historian Michael Dobbs · Arroe Collins Like It's Live

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  Speaker 1: I was doing some research yesterday on Morgan Wallen. I
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  Speaker 1: didn't know the dude was on NBC's The Voice. Did
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  Speaker 1: you know that? Season 14. See, that's the reason why
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  Speaker 1: we've created this channel called That Voice on Arrow.net. A-R-R-O-E.net.
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  Speaker 1: You just never know where these people from The Voice
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  Speaker 1: are going to end up. Just ask Morgan Wallen. A-R-R-O-E.net.
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  Speaker 1: Look for That Voice. Enjoy your exploration. I grew up
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  Speaker 1: in this era. I feared Ronald Reagan. I voted for him.
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  Speaker 1: That was my very first election. I got to vote
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  Speaker 1: for it at the age of 18, but I grew
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  Speaker 1: up fearing this man because I, I really thought that
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  Speaker 1: he was going to bring the end of the world here.
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  Speaker 1: And then I get your book right now and I'm going,
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  Speaker 1: how close were we? How I had authentic fear, dude.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think there were two Ronald Reagan's. There was
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  Speaker 2: the guy who was denouncing the Soviet union as an
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  Speaker 2: evil empire and was sort of very ideological. And then
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  Speaker 2: there was a much more pragmatic Reagan who ended up
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  Speaker 2: negotiating the end of the Cold War with Mikhail Gorbachev
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  Speaker 2: and traveling to Moscow. So there were these sort of
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  Speaker 2: two different Ronald Reagans, the far breathing one that certainly
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  Speaker 2: brought the world, you know, much closer to a conflict
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  Speaker 2: with the Soviet Union. And there was the one Ronald
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  Speaker 2: Reagan who helped to resolve it all.
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  Speaker 1: Well, the Ronald Reagan that I got to see in
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  Speaker 1: the radio industry was the one where he was sitting
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  Speaker 1: there joking around inside the studio where he said we
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  Speaker 1: were going to bomb Russia. And, you know, of course,
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  Speaker 1: that just drove that fear even deeper into my soul.
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  Speaker 1: But the fact of the matter is, is that I
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  Speaker 1: still trusted the man. What is it that I agree
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  Speaker 1: with you on the two sides of Ronald Reagan?
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  Speaker 2: Well, Ronald Reagan had some sort of very he he
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  Speaker 2: didn't think things through very clearly, but he had good instincts.
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  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 2: And one of his instincts was that he actually turned
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  Speaker 2: out to be one of the most anti-nuclear presidents that
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  Speaker 2: the United States has ever had. And he was frightened
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  Speaker 2: by these terrible weapons. He was terrified by the biblical
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  Speaker 2: prophecy of Armageddon. And, you know, that was one of
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  Speaker 2: his motivations in trying to reach out to the Kremlin
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  Speaker 2: and to, you know, eventually find a Soviet leader that
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  Speaker 2: he could do business with, which turned out to be
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  Speaker 2: Mikhail Gorbachev.
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  Speaker 1: You're going to think I'm a freak here, but as
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  Speaker 1: I'm reading this book and I'm getting deeper and deeper
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  Speaker 1: into the chapters, I have a highlighter with me because
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  Speaker 1: I want people to go through this book after I've
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  Speaker 1: read it and see how you have touched me. And
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  Speaker 1: then I want to see them use their own color
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  Speaker 1: of highlighter to see what they're touched by as well.
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  Speaker 1: This is a book that is so important to where
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  Speaker 1: we are now.
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  Speaker 2: Well, thank you, Arrow. I mean, I did find many
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  Speaker 2: parallels between the situation that Reagan faced in 1983 and
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  Speaker 2: the kind of crisis that we might have to deal
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  Speaker 2: with in the future. And, you know, the most obvious
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  Speaker 2: one is this compression of nuclear early warning times. There's
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  Speaker 2: a point in Reagan's autobiography where he says, he talks
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  Speaker 2: about the Russians stationing nuclear missiles off our East Coast.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: That could turn the White House into a pile of
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  Speaker 2: radioactive rubble within six or eight minutes. And then he says,
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  Speaker 2: six minutes to decide how to respond to a blip
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  Speaker 2: on a radar scope and decide whether to unleash Armageddon.
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  Speaker 2: How could anyone apply reason at a time like that? And,
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  Speaker 2: you know, that was really the, in 1983, you had
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  Speaker 2: ballistic missile technology had developed to a point where either
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  Speaker 2: side could destroy the other in five or six minutes
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  Speaker 2: without any with very little advance warning. And now with
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  Speaker 2: the development of computers and further development of missile technology,
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  Speaker 2: we've probably reduced it to even less than six minutes.
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  Speaker 2: So the question becomes, you know, who is in control
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  Speaker 2: or who can control these weapons and what role is
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  Speaker 2: left for ordinary human beings and for political leaders?
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  Speaker 1: That's what makes this book so scary, is the fact
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  Speaker 1: that we had this blip that was on the map,
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  Speaker 1: and yet if we would have seen that blip on
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  Speaker 1: the map during Pearl Harbor, they didn't react. But Reagan
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  Speaker 1: did react. Did we learn from those lessons of Pearl
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  Speaker 1: Harbor to be more aware and to act with sensible kindness?
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  Speaker 2: Well, Pearl Harbor was a completely different era, of course,
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  Speaker 2: and there was a surprise attack on the United States airport.
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  Speaker 2: Pearl Harbor, but it ended up destroying our naval base
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  Speaker 2: out in Hawaii. I mean, a surprise attack these days
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  Speaker 2: is going to take an entirely different form. It's not
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  Speaker 2: going to just be focused on one very distant American state.
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  Speaker 2: It'll be focused on the American heartland. And, you know,
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  Speaker 2: that's really the difference of the atomic era to World
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  Speaker 2: War II, that nuclear weapons were are the first direct
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  Speaker 2: threat to the American heartland.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I'm going to add to that, and I realize
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  Speaker 1: we need to get back to talking about six-minute war,
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  Speaker 1: but I want to add to that because there was
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  Speaker 1: a senator just a couple of days ago that stepped
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  Speaker 1: forward and said that we could actually have war on
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  Speaker 1: our own grounds here because of these things called drones.
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  Speaker 1: And I don't know if Reagan even knew what a
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  Speaker 1: drone was back in his day.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think drones have been invented in 1983, but
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  Speaker 2: computer technology was beginning to be developed at that time.
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  Speaker 2: And we were beginning to cede authority to computers to
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  Speaker 2: control not nuclear weapons, but other kinds of weapons. And
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  Speaker 2: that's what we have seen come to fruition in the
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  Speaker 2: war in Ukraine, where actually the drones... beginning to make
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  Speaker 2: decisions for themselves. They're no longer controlled by human beings.
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  Speaker 1: I always thought it was an urban legend, or it
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  Speaker 1: was just my way of my father's just calming my
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  Speaker 1: little kid butt down. But I always thought that the
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  Speaker 1: Soviets having a warning system mistake was just urban legend.
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  Speaker 1: But my, you know, like I said, my father would
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  Speaker 1: be the one that says, stop it, stop it, stop it.
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  Speaker 1: We're not thinking like that. But did it actually happen?
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  Speaker 2: Well, certainly the, you know, Reagan reports that, um, The
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  Speaker 2: Soviets deployed nuclear submarines off our eastern coast. They had
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  Speaker 2: nuclear weapons that could destroy the United States. The question was,
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  Speaker 2: you know, how these weapons would be used. So the
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  Speaker 2: possibility was always there. They have the capabilities, certainly.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, Kay Patteras, if you knew what I'm reading that
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  Speaker 1: inside your pages, I'm going, oh my God, that's only
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  Speaker 1: a few hours from me right here in Carolina right now.
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  Speaker 1: And with The Way of the World, whoa, it's an
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  Speaker 1: eye-opening book, Guy. Although 1983, it's like you said, there's
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  Speaker 1: still some comparisons into what we're experiencing even today.
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  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, this big comparison and parallel is the reduction
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  Speaker 2: in early warning times for a missile attack to just
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  Speaker 2: a few minutes and the ceding of control to computers
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  Speaker 2: and nowadays to artificial intelligence. Because if you only have
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  Speaker 2: a few minutes to predict a nuclear missile attack, human
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  Speaker 2: beings can't take decisions in that amount of time or
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  Speaker 2: can't take rational decisions. So the temptation is to cede
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  Speaker 2: that authority to computers and to artificial intelligence. But AI
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  Speaker 2: can also make mistakes. And I think that's one of
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  Speaker 2: the lessons, actually, from 1983, is that computers were making
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  Speaker 2: mistakes and they were making false predictions. And in the end,
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  Speaker 2: to save us from these mistakes, we need human beings.
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  Speaker 2: And to save us from the mistakes that are going
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  Speaker 2: to be made by artificial intelligence in the future, you
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  Speaker 2: need rational thinking, empathetic human beings. But the time available
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  Speaker 2: to these human beings to take rational decisions is becoming
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  Speaker 2: ever more reduced. So that's really what worries me as
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  Speaker 2: somebody who lived through the entire Cold War.
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  Speaker 1: Kind of scary, huh? We're going to be right back
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  Speaker 1: with Michael Dobbs coming up next. Hey, thanks for coming
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  Speaker 1: back to the conversation. The Six Minute War. Did you
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  Speaker 1: know this took place? How much do you really know
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  Speaker 1: about Ronald Reagan and what was unraveling in 1983? We
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  Speaker 1: are back with Michael Dobbs. Did it change Ronald Reagan
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  Speaker 1: or President Reagan in the way of him experiencing reality
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  Speaker 1: when he visited the Cheyenne Mountain? Because we've all heard
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  Speaker 1: so much about it and to millions of people, it's
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  Speaker 1: still that big mystery. But But to read that he
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  Speaker 1: was physically there, now I want to know. Now I
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  Speaker 1: want to read his notes. I want to know more
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  Speaker 1: about this.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, while he was preparing to become president, Reagan went
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  Speaker 2: out to Cheyenne Mountain, which is where the Strategic Air
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  Speaker 2: Command had its early warning capabilities. And he was shocked
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  Speaker 2: to learn that the United States had no means of
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  Speaker 2: defending itself against a Soviet missile attack. And so that
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  Speaker 2: was actually one of his primary motivations in developing what
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  Speaker 2: he called the Strategic Defense Initiative, what most other people
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  Speaker 2: call Star Wars. And certainly was a motivation throughout his presidency,
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  Speaker 2: not just to develop Star Wars, but also to find
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  Speaker 2: a way to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in
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  Speaker 2: the world, which led to his meeting with Gorbachev in
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  Speaker 2: Reykjavik and led to him negotiating with Gorbachev the first
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  Speaker 2: real reductions in many of these weapons.
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  Speaker 1: Now, I know that we're talking about Gorbachev, but we
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  Speaker 1: can't forget about Yuri Andropov as well, because that was
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  Speaker 1: a person that was always on my mind. And I
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  Speaker 1: was watching him as that young adult because, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: he was now at the helm. And a lot of
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  Speaker 1: people have totally forgotten about Yuri Andropov. Yeah, he's sort of.
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  Speaker 2: Been lost to history, but he's an interesting person. He
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  Speaker 2: was the KGB chief. He had been the Soviet ambassador
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  Speaker 2: in Budapest during the 1956 uprising against communism. And he
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  Speaker 2: was a very sophisticated person, but he was also a
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  Speaker 2: hardline communist. And there's something that happens right at the
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  Speaker 2: beginning of my book that has stayed with me is
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  Speaker 2: that he's visited by Averill Harriman, who was one of
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  Speaker 2: our elder statesmen in the Kremlin. And he says to Harriman, well,
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  Speaker 2: perhaps you're not going to attack us with nuclear missiles immediately,
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  Speaker 2: but I do fear a war that could be started
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  Speaker 2: by mistake. And in that case, it will be so
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  Speaker 2: terrible that there'll be nothing that can save mankind. And
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  Speaker 2: I think actually that risk of an accidental nuclear war
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  Speaker 2: was and remains much more of a real threat than
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  Speaker 2: an intentional nuclear war. I don't think Andropov or Khrushchev
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  Speaker 2: or even Putin is about to use nuclear weapons intentionally
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  Speaker 2: against the United States or against the West. but I
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  Speaker 2: can conceive of circumstances in which both sides lose control
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  Speaker 2: over an escalating crisis and we end up in a
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  Speaker 2: nuclear war.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, because I'm in fear right now of too many
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  Speaker 1: people crying wolf in the way that they just toss
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  Speaker 1: it out there. Well, we'll just eliminate them. We'll take
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  Speaker 1: them off the planet. Oh, we may use some nuclear
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  Speaker 1: weapons over here in Ukraine. And I'm going, you guys
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  Speaker 1: are using this word like no other president or a leader.
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  Speaker 1: And it's like we're going to become numb to the
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  Speaker 1: fact if we keep using it like this and nothing happens.
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  Speaker 2: Well, particularly the Russian rhetoric is frightening, particularly at the
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  Speaker 2: level immediately below Putin. For example, a guy, his former
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  Speaker 2: sidekick Medvedev, who routinely tweets about, you know, how we're
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  Speaker 2: going to take Britain off the map completely and how
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  Speaker 2: we have these terrible weapons that we're fully ready to use.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, there's a very loose rhetoric there. which, although
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  Speaker 2: Khrushchev back in the day said, we will bury you
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  Speaker 2: to the United States, he didn't mean we will bury
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  Speaker 2: you with nuclear bombs. We will bury you economically. So
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  Speaker 2: the rhetoric is much wilder, actually, than it was at
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  Speaker 2: any time during the Cold War right now.
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  Speaker 1: See, this book is so important because I'm so addicted
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  Speaker 1: to growing in the future, but I always believe that
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  Speaker 1: the past is where we are now. And when I
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  Speaker 1: hear words like this coming from your book, the decision
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  Speaker 1: to launch nuclear weapons is mine alone to make. I
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  Speaker 1: think that's designed to really make us aware of really
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  Speaker 1: the potential of something. And we as readers, shouldn't we
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  Speaker 1: also take what you've written and prepare our own lives
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  Speaker 1: right now?
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  Speaker 2: Well, that was Reagan talking in his autobiography. And that,
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  Speaker 2: of course, is American nuclear doctrine and also Russian nuclear doctrine,
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  Speaker 2: that the Decision to use nuclear weapons rests with the
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  Speaker 2: president of the United States or the leader of China
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  Speaker 2: or the leader of Russia. And these are fallible human beings.
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  Speaker 2: And their time for making rational decisions is getting ever
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  Speaker 2: smaller and smaller. And, you know, that is worrying, obviously.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, this is your honesty and what I
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  Speaker 1: love about the way that you write, because you're educating
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  Speaker 1: this uneducated generation. We are so chat GPT right now.
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  Speaker 1: And what I did not know that that Russia was
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  Speaker 1: mirroring their image with the U.S. And in your quote,
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  Speaker 1: it says, but they've got different actors. My God, that
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  Speaker 1: was so powerful to my heart because it's like I
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  Speaker 1: have an image of Russia. Guess what? I'm wrong. I'm
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  Speaker 1: learning more through your pages.
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's kind of you to say, of course. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: there's a lot of mirror imaging going on. You know,
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  Speaker 2: we traditionally had this sort of incredible, probably overblown fear
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  Speaker 2: of the Soviet Union. And they had the same overblown
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  Speaker 2: fear of us. And, you know, it took a lot
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  Speaker 2: to get through those fears. And, you know, this is,
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  Speaker 2: This was the background for both the 1962 crisis and
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  Speaker 2: the 1983 crisis. And this lack of understanding is also
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  Speaker 2: the background for the kind of terrible situations we could
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  Speaker 2: be facing in the future.
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  Speaker 1: Now, you know, Michael, someone's going to be stealing this
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  Speaker 1: next line from you and they're going to be using
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  Speaker 1: it in their motivational speeches. And it's the fox versus
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  Speaker 1: the hedgehog. This is powerful, Guy. You may know many
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  Speaker 1: things versus do you know one thing? That's powerful because,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, I would love to use that in a
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  Speaker 1: conversation when somebody is running around, you know, acting like
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  Speaker 1: a know-it-all.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think this is what Reagan's strength in regard
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  Speaker 2: to the Soviet Union, was that he certainly didn't know
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  Speaker 2: a lot of things. There was a lot that he
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  Speaker 2: didn't know about Russia. But he didn't know one important thing,
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  Speaker 2: which was this system was not going to last. And
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  Speaker 2: he knew another important thing, which was that the world
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  Speaker 2: could be destroyed by nuclear weapons. So he focused on
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  Speaker 2: those two important things. And whatever you think about Reagan,
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  Speaker 2: and certainly, you know, ideologically, one can agree or disagree
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  Speaker 2: with him, he did have this sort of very simple
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  Speaker 2: vision that he was able to implement in the end.
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  Speaker 2: I think he was very lucky because he came to
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  Speaker 2: the presidency at a time when the rival ideological system
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  Speaker 2: was in the process of falling apart. But by holding
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  Speaker 2: on to this belief in what made America work, And
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  Speaker 2: understanding why the rival system didn't work, he helped enable
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  Speaker 2: an end to the Cold War. That's not to say
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  Speaker 2: that he caused it, but he certainly facilitated it and
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  Speaker 2: he made it possible.
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  Speaker 1: This is such an amazing book because everything that I'm
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  Speaker 1: reading about Generation Z as well as Alpha and Beta
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  Speaker 1: is that they don't know Ronald Reagan. They don't know
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  Speaker 1: the 1980s. They hear their parents talking about it. But
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  Speaker 1: this is what I really want to help plant in
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  Speaker 1: their hearts. Because YA authors are writing books about that era.
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  Speaker 1: Now we need the authenticity of a book like this.
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  Speaker 1: And that's why, to me, this book is important for
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  Speaker 1: young adults as well as grown adults like myself. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I do think that, you know, in order to
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  Speaker 2: avoid the history repeating itself and avoid... Being trapped in history,
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  Speaker 2: the first requirement is actually to study history.
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  Speaker 1: That's right.
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  Speaker 2: And that was one of the strengths of Kennedy, actually,
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  Speaker 2: that Kennedy had studied history and Khrushchev had studied history.
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  Speaker 2: We need leaders who study history. That's not to say
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  Speaker 2: that it repeats itself exactly, but you have to be
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  Speaker 2: aware of the directions in which history is moving in
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  Speaker 2: order to avoid its pitfalls.
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  Speaker 1: That's so funny that you say that, because I was
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  Speaker 1: in a conversation yesterday, and the guy goes, every 80 years,
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  Speaker 1: history repeats itself. And we both agreed, uh-oh, we're headed
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  Speaker 1: to another world war. I mean, it's like, no, no, no,
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  Speaker 1: we don't need to be going in that direction. We
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  Speaker 1: can stop this.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, we can stop this. But in order to stop it,
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  Speaker 2: we have to understand what is happening. And in some ways,
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  Speaker 2: you kind of are referring, well, back to World War I.
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  Speaker 2: I mean— Prior to World War I, the world was,
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  Speaker 2: you know, making huge advances. There'd been peace for several generations.
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  Speaker 2: And then suddenly we're in this conflagration that nobody is
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  Speaker 2: able to stop. Nobody wants it, but nobody is able
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  Speaker 2: to stop it. And, you know, in a way we're
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  Speaker 2: sort of in a similar situation now that, of course,
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  Speaker 2: we've enjoyed many decades of unparalleled economic progress. but we're
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  Speaker 2: also losing the ability to control everything that we have created,
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  Speaker 2: particularly nuclear weapons.
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  Speaker 1: You got to come back to this show anytime in
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  Speaker 1: the future, Michael. I love where your heart is. I
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  Speaker 1: love where you're sharing your stories and your authenticity is
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  Speaker 1: just so important to this generation right now.
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  Speaker 2: Well, thank you so much. It's been great to talk
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  Speaker 2: to you.
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  Speaker 1: Well, you be brilliant today, okay, sir?
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  Speaker 2: Thank you. Best to you.