Latest / Trumponomics / How the Pandemic Jobs Bust Will Hurt Some More Than Others
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: I tell you what's a surprise for me that day
- 0:03Speaker 1: I went to work. After two hours, they let um
- 0:09Speaker 1: know that we have to close the restaurant and going
- 0:13Speaker 1: to Human Reserve to receive a letter of later. Hello
- 0:22Speaker 1: and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the global
- 0:25Speaker 1: economy to you. And that was Roy James talking about
- 0:28Speaker 1: his last shift on March nine at a restaurant inside
- 0:32Speaker 1: Miami International Airport, where he tended bar for the past
- 0:35Speaker 1: ten years after coming to the US from Cuba fifteen
- 0:39Speaker 1: years ago. More than thirty million Americans have far for
- 0:43Speaker 1: unemployment benefits in the past two months. Now. If you're
- 0:47Speaker 1: having trouble thinking about that very big number, try this.
- 0:49Speaker 1: It's the equivalent of wiping out all of the jobs
- 0:52Speaker 1: created in the US economy, since it's more than twenty
- 0:56Speaker 1: years of job gains gone in a matter of weeks.
- 1:00Speaker 1: As we record this, we're waiting for the official US
- 1:02Speaker 1: jobs report for April, but we already know it's going
- 1:05Speaker 1: to show a record breaking fall and employment. And we
- 1:07Speaker 1: also know that the parts of the workforce that had
- 1:10Speaker 1: only recently benefited from that long slow recovery after the
- 1:14Speaker 1: last recession are the parts that are now being hit. First,
- 1:18Speaker 1: our US economy reporter Katia Dmitrieva has been one of
- 1:22Speaker 1: several Bloomberg reporters who've been trying to put a face
- 1:25Speaker 1: and a voice on some of those numbers. I'll talk
- 1:29Speaker 1: to her in a minute, and I'm also going to
- 1:31Speaker 1: be hearing from our Eurozone economist Maheva Kuza about the
- 1:35Speaker 1: contrasting situation in Europe. Unemployment there hasn't risen as fast
- 1:39Speaker 1: as in the US, but as many as forty million
- 1:42Speaker 1: workers are now having their wages indirectly paid by the state. First, though,
- 1:48Speaker 1: let's hear a bit more from Roy James about what's
- 1:51Speaker 1: happened to him since he lost his job. He was
- 1:53Speaker 1: talking to Bloomberg reporter Jeff Green. I was trying to
- 2:02Speaker 1: apply online. The system was impossible, also ready out for
- 2:11Speaker 1: eleve of weeks, and I didn't see nothing yet and
- 2:15Speaker 1: not even information. Right now, I'm already okay my to
- 2:22Speaker 1: pay my rent. I get a deal for the first month,
- 2:26Speaker 1: but for the second months, I didn't get a deal.
- 2:28Speaker 1: I had to pay on my rank, my grand yesterday.
- 2:33Speaker 1: About the time everything's gonna go back to normal, we
- 2:38Speaker 1: we have to pay everything. But that at the same time,
- 2:41Speaker 1: and we if we're not received the help that we're
- 2:44Speaker 1: supposed to receive from the government, from where I'm gonna
- 2:47Speaker 1: get the money to pay all those twos? But the
- 2:50Speaker 1: people need to help and there are a lot of people. No,
- 2:53Speaker 1: we're not talking about a couple of homebreds talking about millions.
- 2:59Speaker 1: So that was Roy James in Florida. Well, Katia Dmitrieva
- 3:05Speaker 1: has been part of the same project. She's a US
- 3:07Speaker 1: economy reporter and she's with me. Now, Katia, give me
- 3:11Speaker 1: some of the background the story you were trying to
- 3:14Speaker 1: tell by talking to the seven people featured in this article,
- 3:19Speaker 1: because I know you were in a way you're trying
- 3:21Speaker 1: to draw a contrast between what they're experiencing now and
- 3:24Speaker 1: what these groups were enjoying in the labor market, the
- 3:29Speaker 1: conditions that they were seeing even as recently as just
- 3:32Speaker 1: a few months ago. Yeah, that was one of the
- 3:34Speaker 1: things we wanted to explore, is what the labor market
- 3:39Speaker 1: looks like right now and what it feels like for
- 3:41Speaker 1: people on the ground. The first entry point into this
- 3:45Speaker 1: was just putting a face behind the data and and
- 3:49Speaker 1: the second part is really just finding out what is
- 3:52Speaker 1: happening on the ground. One thing that we were really
- 3:54Speaker 1: curious about is what happens when people are looking for
- 3:58Speaker 1: a job right now, when they're when they're hunting, because
- 4:01Speaker 1: a few months ago, they would have been welcomed with
- 4:04Speaker 1: open arms by employers. Employers were desperate for workers, They
- 4:09Speaker 1: were willing to pay higher wages. They were willing to
- 4:12Speaker 1: offer benefits everything from childcare to maybe a bit more
- 4:17Speaker 1: um loose kind of hours if you want to stay
- 4:20Speaker 1: here your hours, for example, they were offering healthcare benefits
- 4:24Speaker 1: at a higher rate. And that's completely changed, and it
- 4:28Speaker 1: happened very very quickly. We've had a long jobs recovery
- 4:33Speaker 1: since the global financial crisis, some of these more marginalized
- 4:37Speaker 1: members of the labor market, minorities, women had really only
- 4:42Speaker 1: just been benefiting from that recovery the last few years.
- 4:46Speaker 1: Are we seeing those groups being hit first by this
- 4:50Speaker 1: crisis to kind of first in, first out dynamic. The
- 4:54Speaker 1: March data does show a take up in the unemployment
- 4:57Speaker 1: rate for African Americans, for Hispanics, for women, but it
- 5:03Speaker 1: also shows a tick up in the unemployment just more broadly.
- 5:06Speaker 1: What we do know from the data is that they
- 5:09Speaker 1: are more likely to be let go first um they're
- 5:14Speaker 1: in industries that happened to be a bit more precarious,
- 5:19Speaker 1: and so they're more likely to be let go. And
- 5:21Speaker 1: also there are in industries that were most affected first,
- 5:25Speaker 1: so retail stores, restaurants, So this is um people over
- 5:30Speaker 1: the age of fifty five. There was this sort of
- 5:33Speaker 1: rise in the participation rate in labor market amongst that
- 5:37Speaker 1: amongst that group, and um, of course we know across
- 5:40Speaker 1: the country restaurants just shuttered in in droves, and the
- 5:46Speaker 1: same with retail stores. We had a bunch of closures.
- 5:49Speaker 1: These are also minimum wage jobs, and a large portion
- 5:53Speaker 1: of those uh folks for let go as well. Yes,
- 5:56Speaker 1: it's interesting not only that I was listening to some
- 5:58Speaker 1: of these interviews, and they do all seem to have
- 6:01Speaker 1: been surprised by losing their jobs. They had somehow thought
- 6:06Speaker 1: that it was going to be temporary, or that their
- 6:08Speaker 1: employers would try and hold keep them on. UM. And
- 6:12Speaker 1: you also had spoken, you and your colleagues to quite
- 6:15Speaker 1: a lot of young people. And we know historically that
- 6:18Speaker 1: young people can have the most lasting effects from a
- 6:23Speaker 1: recession if they lose their first job or are not
- 6:27Speaker 1: unable to get on the job's ladder at all after
- 6:29Speaker 1: leaving high school or college because of a recession. You
- 6:32Speaker 1: might think, well, that's just a few months delay, but
- 6:34Speaker 1: actually the numbers suggest people can have a permanent hit
- 6:37Speaker 1: to their income from missing out in that first step
- 6:41Speaker 1: in their career. And I think catchier. You and your
- 6:45Speaker 1: your colleagues interviewed a few people like that, including a
- 6:49Speaker 1: woman in Ohio, Danny or thiece who Viviana Further your
- 6:55Speaker 1: colleague met. Do you how much do you know about her?
- 6:57Speaker 1: What's what's her story? Yeah, Danny is a twenty five
- 7:03Speaker 1: year old in Cleveland, and she was furloughed from her
- 7:07Speaker 1: part time job as a teaching assistant at a Montessori school.
- 7:12Speaker 1: And it kind of shows this chain reaction that happens
- 7:15Speaker 1: because when she lost her job, she basically lost her
- 7:19Speaker 1: main source of income and how she was paying for
- 7:22Speaker 1: her school. And she was supposed to complete her associate's
- 7:26Speaker 1: degree this summer and that would have let her do
- 7:29Speaker 1: uh Montessori teacher training and then also transferred to a
- 7:33Speaker 1: b A. So the knock on effect of that job
- 7:37Speaker 1: loss means that she cannot complete her associate's degree, she
- 7:40Speaker 1: can't move on to do this really crucial teacher training,
- 7:45Speaker 1: and essentially she has delayed the start of her career.
- 7:48Speaker 1: So here's Dannie Ortiz now. But it was just so
- 7:52Speaker 1: out of nowhere. So it just happened so sudden, you know,
- 7:56Speaker 1: you didn't have time to prepare. It was like, Okay,
- 7:59Speaker 1: here's your last check, and you won't get four more
- 8:02Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. And at least for me,
- 8:05Speaker 1: I am okay money wise, but that's not gonna last forever.
- 8:11Speaker 1: It's gonna last me at least two more months. Maybe
- 8:16Speaker 1: this summer I was supposed to take the Monastori training
- 8:20Speaker 1: and so that I could have my own classroom in
- 8:22Speaker 1: two years. But you know that all changed. Um so
- 8:27Speaker 1: just like just like career wise, like I've had to
- 8:30Speaker 1: reconsider things, not just schooling, but like the training that
- 8:33Speaker 1: I wanted to do this year. To me, it sounded
- 8:37Speaker 1: a lot like what happened to um millennials when they
- 8:41Speaker 1: graduated into the recession in two thousand and eight, two nine,
- 8:44Speaker 1: as far as two and they were faced with a
- 8:48Speaker 1: few jobs and the jobs that they were able to get,
- 8:51Speaker 1: the power was really with the employer. They could they
- 8:54Speaker 1: could pay them what they wanted, um, often not not
- 8:57Speaker 1: the best benefits. So basically the polar opposite of of
- 9:00Speaker 1: what we were seeing up until a couple of months ago. UM.
- 9:03Speaker 1: The point you made actually about the surprise that these
- 9:07Speaker 1: folks had when they lost their jobs. I think it's
- 9:10Speaker 1: really important because the economic expansion completely changed the dynamic
- 9:15Speaker 1: of the workforce. You went from something that Danny Ortiz
- 9:19Speaker 1: is probably gonna face now, graduating into a market that
- 9:23Speaker 1: maybe doesn't want her um, And instead they were going
- 9:27Speaker 1: into a market where people were desperate for workers, all
- 9:31Speaker 1: kinds of workers, people without a college degree, people who
- 9:34Speaker 1: had some college um, people who didn't even want to
- 9:37Speaker 1: go to college. UM, African Americans who, like I mentioned,
- 9:41Speaker 1: their unemployment rate went down. Jobs were offered to them.
- 9:44Speaker 1: So it's it's worth emphasizing how surprising it was because
- 9:48Speaker 1: employers were really bending over backwards up until a few
- 9:51Speaker 1: months ago to keep people on hand. Katia, Finally, was
- 9:57Speaker 1: anything surprising to you in the report voting that you
- 10:00Speaker 1: did in the last week or recently? You know, it
- 10:03Speaker 1: was the main takeaway bin for you. I think one
- 10:06Speaker 1: of the more interesting parts in the reporting and in
- 10:08Speaker 1: speaking with some of these people that are in this
- 10:11Speaker 1: story is just how finding out just how precarious the
- 10:16Speaker 1: labor market was for them even before the coronavirus. You know,
- 10:20Speaker 1: I think I think we often talk about the coronavirus
- 10:24Speaker 1: as this black swan event that caused a lot of
- 10:27Speaker 1: these issues, But the reality is that as as good
- 10:31Speaker 1: as the gains were beforehand, you know, wages did rise
- 10:35Speaker 1: and people were able to find jobs easier, but a
- 10:39Speaker 1: lot of the protections weren't in place either, and the
- 10:43Speaker 1: wages often didn't compensate people for the kind of for
- 10:47Speaker 1: the kind of work they were doing. So, if anything,
- 10:50Speaker 1: I think that's the question going forward is after all
- 10:53Speaker 1: of this is over, when the economy quote unquote reopens,
- 10:57Speaker 1: when people start going back to work, what will the
- 11:00Speaker 1: brief worth look like? Basically, um, maybe people will get
- 11:05Speaker 1: that kind of stability where they can't just be let
- 11:07Speaker 1: go at a moment's notice and lose their healthcare and benefits,
- 11:11Speaker 1: or will it be eroded further, which is what we
- 11:13Speaker 1: saw in the two thousand eight financial crisis. So I
- 11:16Speaker 1: think that's a big question going forward, and there's definitely
- 11:20Speaker 1: one that we're going to be talking about a lot.
- 11:21Speaker 1: And you here asked across the world now, not just
- 11:25Speaker 1: in the U. S. Catier Dmitrieva, thank you very much
- 11:28Speaker 1: thanks so much so, the International Labor Organization estimated this
- 11:42Speaker 1: week that working out as worldwide would be at least
- 11:45Speaker 1: ten percent lower this quarter than before the pandemic started,
- 11:50Speaker 1: which is the equivalent of three hundred and five million
- 11:53Speaker 1: full time jobs. Now, countries probably don't have a choice
- 11:57Speaker 1: about whether to have that kind of decline in an
- 12:00Speaker 1: employment in their countries if they want to contain the virus,
- 12:03Speaker 1: but the decisions that governments take can affect whether people
- 12:07Speaker 1: at the sharp end of that decline can formally stay
- 12:11Speaker 1: in their jobs during this time, earning wages rather than
- 12:15Speaker 1: joining the ranks of the unemployed. In the US, as
- 12:18Speaker 1: we've heard, unemployment has already sowed and that could yet
- 12:21Speaker 1: happen across Europe. But we've also seen governments step in
- 12:25Speaker 1: to cover wages directly, to the point where now a
- 12:29Speaker 1: mind boggling number of people are getting their wages indirectly
- 12:33Speaker 1: paid by the state. Our Eurozone economist may Vakuza, who
- 12:37Speaker 1: has been on the program before, has been looking at
- 12:39Speaker 1: the numbers. May ver, good to have you back. How
- 12:42Speaker 1: many people across the Eurozone are currently being paid by
- 12:47Speaker 1: the state by your calculation, So looking just at the
- 12:51Speaker 1: four biggest countries so Founds, Germany, Italian, Spain. It's about
- 12:56Speaker 1: thirty million people who have found for those short term
- 13:00Speaker 1: employment schemes, the partial unemployment schemes where they are still
- 13:04Speaker 1: employed by a company but there's no activity and their
- 13:07Speaker 1: wages are paid bases states. And what does that meant?
- 13:10Speaker 1: I mean you look at what the equivalent might have
- 13:13Speaker 1: been in terms of the unemployment rate if you hadn't
- 13:16Speaker 1: seen governments introduced those wage support schemes quite early on,
- 13:21Speaker 1: at the same time as lockdowns began. So at the moment,
- 13:26Speaker 1: are about ten million unemployed across your economies as Big four.
- 13:31Speaker 1: If you had thirty million people who are now short
- 13:35Speaker 1: term in the short term and employment schemes, that would
- 13:38Speaker 1: mean forty million unemployed. It would multiply the unemployment rate
- 13:42Speaker 1: by by about four so to about thirty percent. If
- 13:47Speaker 1: you had on top of that those the other workers
- 13:50Speaker 1: that can't go into the unemployment, the short term unemployment,
- 13:54Speaker 1: you could get easier each forty percent unemployment rate at
- 13:57Speaker 1: the at the peak of the of the down, so
- 14:00Speaker 1: around now start of me it's probably the big for
- 14:04Speaker 1: tip percent from eight percent in February. We're recording this
- 14:08Speaker 1: before we've got the April employment numbers for the US,
- 14:11Speaker 1: but most forecasters are expecting well over twenty million decline
- 14:17Speaker 1: in employment and potentially an unemployment rate in the US
- 14:22Speaker 1: heading to over the next few weeks if it's not
- 14:25Speaker 1: there already. So what you're saying is it could be.
- 14:28Speaker 1: It could have been maybe even double that in Europe
- 14:32Speaker 1: if you've not had this support programs in place, But
- 14:35Speaker 1: now it's going to be maybe in the region of
- 14:38Speaker 1: twelve or fourteen percent, depending on depending on what happens. Yeah,
- 14:42Speaker 1: that's about where is it. That's that's a sort of
- 14:45Speaker 1: runch at the moment. It's difficult to know how much.
- 14:47Speaker 1: In fact, so if you look at a much unemployment
- 14:50Speaker 1: rate in your area, it has increased only marginally. And
- 14:55Speaker 1: the main reason from seven points hip percent for your
- 14:58Speaker 1: areas or to seven points opposite, I think. And the
- 15:01Speaker 1: main reason is that um to be registered as unemployed
- 15:05Speaker 1: according to the high definition, you have to be not working,
- 15:10Speaker 1: you have to be actively looking for a job, and
- 15:12Speaker 1: you have to be available to start a job. And
- 15:14Speaker 1: because people are in lockdowns, they're not necessarily available to
- 15:18Speaker 1: start a job because they can't move. So the headline
- 15:22Speaker 1: unemployment rate won't tell you the full extent of the impact.
- 15:27Speaker 1: But when you look at claimant numbers, so people who
- 15:29Speaker 1: have failed to get the unemployment benefits, then you can
- 15:32Speaker 1: see some increase. In Spain, for instance, that is reason
- 15:36Speaker 1: too um more or less where it was at the
- 15:39Speaker 1: end of twenty sixteen, so quite a lot. In France
- 15:42Speaker 1: it has increased as well, but still it hasn't increased
- 15:46Speaker 1: as much as you could have expected. And you can
- 15:49Speaker 1: see as well in the administrative data. In Spain, for instance,
- 15:53Speaker 1: about nine hundred thousand people have lost their jobs due
- 15:57Speaker 1: to the pandemic, so between mid March the end of
- 16:00Speaker 1: paper um, most of them almost eight hundred thousand are
- 16:06Speaker 1: temporary workers and very few permanent workers. And in contrast,
- 16:11Speaker 1: you have had an increased in the short term and
- 16:14Speaker 1: employed so these followed workers schemes of about three million
- 16:19Speaker 1: in Spain, so you can see that there is still
- 16:22Speaker 1: an impact on the labor market. It's not necessarily something
- 16:26Speaker 1: you can see very well in the data yet, because
- 16:29Speaker 1: of these problems of connecting the statistics during the lockdowns,
- 16:34Speaker 1: but the impact is a lot smaller than it would
- 16:38Speaker 1: have been without the fellowed workers schemes, and we've seen
- 16:44Speaker 1: that also in the US. We see it everywhere. Actually,
- 16:46Speaker 1: this gap between a number of people losing their jobs
- 16:49Speaker 1: and the number of people who you see joining unemployment
- 16:51Speaker 1: roles for exactly that reason. I think it's it's about
- 16:54Speaker 1: forty or fifty of people losing their jobs in the
- 16:57Speaker 1: US are not necessarily joining the formally unemployed. People outside
- 17:02Speaker 1: the Europe might say, well, this isn't so different. You know,
- 17:05Speaker 1: we think of Europe as being a place of big
- 17:08Speaker 1: government and they already have lots of people working in
- 17:10Speaker 1: the public sector. Um, maybe this isn't such a psychological
- 17:15Speaker 1: shift for European governments. But I mean, what do you
- 17:18Speaker 1: think is the implications of the government having intervened this
- 17:23Speaker 1: heavily in the labor market? I mean, is it going
- 17:25Speaker 1: to be hard to unwind? And is it going to
- 17:27Speaker 1: be impossibly expensive even for these notoriously big spending European government.
- 17:34Speaker 1: So I don't think it's going to be helped to unwind.
- 17:36Speaker 1: When activity returns, those workers will go back to work,
- 17:41Speaker 1: And in a way, it's actually that should be easier
- 17:44Speaker 1: to unwind than normal unemployment, than people moving onto the
- 17:49Speaker 1: unemployment benefits and then they have to find a new job.
- 17:52Speaker 1: Those workers they still have a job, they are still
- 17:55Speaker 1: linked to a company. It's just that there's no activity
- 17:58Speaker 1: for this company at the moment. So I think it
- 18:01Speaker 1: should be relatively straightforward for um those workers to go
- 18:06Speaker 1: back to their normal activity and go back to their
- 18:09Speaker 1: employers pay roll rather than being paid by the States.
- 18:13Speaker 1: So I'm not too worried about the difficulty in unwinding.
- 18:17Speaker 1: But it is clear that the programs have been generally
- 18:22Speaker 1: made more generous, more easy to access, and most most
- 18:27Speaker 1: governments initially had said it would be for March and April,
- 18:30Speaker 1: but now they have to increase, and they have started
- 18:33Speaker 1: increasing um or extending to May as well, of course,
- 18:37Speaker 1: because the lugduns are still in place and they're only
- 18:40Speaker 1: going to be gradually removed, so it's going to cost more,
- 18:45Speaker 1: but it will come to an end when activity resumes
- 18:48Speaker 1: and returns. They will go back to work. But is
- 18:51Speaker 1: it is it worth the money? Do you think? You
- 18:53Speaker 1: make the good point that is the European Commission has
- 18:56Speaker 1: helped to provide a backup so that country which perhaps
- 19:01Speaker 1: didn't feel they had the fiscal capacity the budget to
- 19:05Speaker 1: do this could could do it. As far as your concern,
- 19:08Speaker 1: just this, these tens of billions, money well spent. In
- 19:12Speaker 1: many countries, it's not much more expensive than people claiming
- 19:15Speaker 1: unemployment benefits. In Spain, for instance, it is exactly the
- 19:18Speaker 1: same money that people will receive as unemployment benefits. So
- 19:23Speaker 1: if those workers would have been fired and moved to
- 19:26Speaker 1: the to the claiman account, then you know it's it's
- 19:30Speaker 1: the same amount, and at least they are keeping a
- 19:32Speaker 1: direct link to the labor market and you're not destroying
- 19:37Speaker 1: it's quite a un it's an investment. It's it's a
- 19:40Speaker 1: productive capacity that's matching between workers and firms, and when
- 19:43Speaker 1: you lose them, you have to spend more effort, more
- 19:45Speaker 1: time finding the right people and training them. So I
- 19:49Speaker 1: think it's money well spent. Difinity maybe because I thank
- 19:53Speaker 1: you very much. It's great to talk to you again.
- 19:55Speaker 1: Thank you so thanks for listening to Stephanomics. We'll be
- 20:04Speaker 1: back next week with more about the way COVID nineteen
- 20:08Speaker 1: is turning the world economy upside down. Remember you can
- 20:12Speaker 1: always find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website, app or
- 20:15Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. And for more news and
- 20:17Speaker 1: analysis from Bloomberg Economics, follow at Economics on Twitter. This
- 20:22Speaker 1: episode was produced by Magnus Hendrickson, with special thanks to
- 20:26Speaker 1: Roy James, Danny Orkiece, Jeff Green, Viviana Hertadol Kidmitrieva, and
- 20:33Speaker 1: Mava Kusan. Scott Lanman is the executive producer of Stephanomics
- 20:37Speaker 1: and the head of Bloomberg Podcast is Francesca Levi.