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Big Jim Agronomic Outlook · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Professional Egg Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you want a deep dive into the egg markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: All right, today is July 29th, and I've got uh Jim Rowland, a strategic account manager uh with um with some field agronomy background here from Pioneer with us here today, and he's gonna give us a little uh update on how conditions look in South Dakota.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: How's it going, Jim?
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: Doing great, Mike.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: Uh thanks for the invite.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we're gonna kick off our uh crop tour next week with uh a little agronomy outlook here for uh for South Dakota, and I was just curious, you guys have had a few rainfalls over there, at least east of you.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: Uh you're located by Mitchell mainly there, right?
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, uh been in Mitchell for many years.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Nice.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: How are things looking in your area then as a general observation?
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: So uh if we kind of talk, I'm gonna talk west to east here because usually my east side is uh usually gets more rain, but for some reason in uh 2022, the west guys have been getting more rain.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: So we we get over to like that chamberlain and we move into like Lyman County all the way to Vivian.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: Those guys have been really catching some timely rains.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: So uh they look really, really good right now.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: So our corn, our beans, our Milo.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: We have some great wheat out there.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: So those guys right now are sitting sitting pretty good.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna need some more rain come August, of course, for the beans.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, as we slide to the east here, Mike, I tell you what, my Planckington, Kimball, uh, you know, even the getting into uh Mitchell and Ethan, even down into South of Salem there.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we're kind of on the bubble here right now.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: We're in the pollination process.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: We got short corn, we're kind of dry.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: We really need to hit a rain here uh for the corn crop real soon.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: This week's been uh good as far as uh uh temperatures, but we're we're facing some 90 to 100 degree temps next week, and uh we do we really do need a rain here.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: So we're kind of on that tipping point.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: If we catch something here, uh we'll have an okay crop.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_01: But uh I I think all the growers are concerned right now, Mike.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: So it's Friday, we're going into the weekend, and and we know how forecast can change in a hurry here, but we do have about the first half of August is really hot and dry for the Western Corn Belt.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: How do you think that is for timing?
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we're hearing a lot more about um pollination and maybe uh the drought resistant technology that we have in today's world.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe pollination isn't as big of a factor, but we are getting a lot of this in the blister stage, if I'm correct, right, Jim?
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: Or how do you think this is for timing for the dryness?
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: So so in our world right now, we're probably beginning pollination to just about wrapping up right now, right today.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: So we do need some rain here shortly.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: So uh the rains that we have had, we I didn't talk about that earlier, but they've been very, very spotty.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: So we've got a few spots that hey, these guys are gonna benefit good, but uh there's a good chunk uh that that needs that need rain in the next seven, especially on the corn crop.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_01: On the soybean side, uh man, it's all about August rains, and and we're flowering, we're potting, we're kind of hanging out okay there.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: But uh our beans are definitely for that first half of August.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: We're hopefully we're gonna have some some rain show up.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: But I I I understand your forecast.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: It's it it looks dry here in the next 10 days, that's for sure.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: It definitely does.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: So, of a damage perspective uh going forward, is this kind of the worst time frame to to be dry here, or what's your observation on that, I guess?
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think I think on the corn side, you know, definitely gonna have some impact if we don't catch any rain here.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: Pollination for the most part looks good, but obviously we'll pull back if uh if we don't get any any any more rain for some of these areas.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: Beans, on the other hand, uh if man, if we can catch something anytime in August, not too late, but uh if we can catch something by Dakota Fest, I think that will be that that'll be great, you know, if we could kind of kind of do something there.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: So a little earlier on the corn, a little bit later on the beans will be just fine.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly right.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and the beans, probably cooler weather is almost gonna help them more than anything as well, correct?
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: For sure.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean we hey we've got some short beans and and we're potting and and flowering.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you know, if we could catch some rains here, boy, boy, that would help that out a lot.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: And guys, you guys know that.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: So uh I I'm probably being a little too optimistic, but it's it we're right in that teetering point.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: Man, if we could catch something, it'd be it'd be big big time, and and uh if we don't, then we're gonna have a pretty disappointing crop, I'm afraid.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: So I know once you go west of Salem, it seems like it uh it doesn't take too long for things to really start going south once it does start to get hot and dry over there.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: But I know that you know we go custom combining out by Kennebec every year, and this year it was amazing wheat out there, and they caught a few of those really bad thunderstorms that wrecked bins and stuff that we uh in those storms we actually didn't even get much out of that at all over here.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: So uh they did catch some stuff and had some late planning as well out there.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: How was your planning time frame?
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: A few guys have been able to complain, you know, mudded it in, or um, you know, the not perfect stands.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: How did you sit in the springtime?
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_01: I I think you you're I I'd agree with your comments.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: It it it was not ideal, so we've got a little bit of unevenness on emergence.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: I know guys try to do the best we can, but we are no-kills, so it's never exactly perfect, but it's best best we can do there.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: But uh that Kennebec area you mentioned about, I mean, they they look phenomenal right now.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: Kennebec, uh Press show, uh Vivian, uh look look really, really good right now.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's an odd time of the year to see green stuff over that way.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: The uh other than that here, Jim, any final thoughts to kind of wrap up uh your part of the world is crop potential uh going forward, if you do get those rains, does it still have pretty full potential or a little bit knocked off already?
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I I think I think we maybe knocked a little bit off, but I I I think if we can catch something here soon.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: Beans have, I think, a lot of potential yet.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh corn, it just kind of depends where we're at in the planting date phase, but maybe we took a little uh took a little off there, and then if we don't get anything, it'll it'll be pretty pretty tough.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: Uh maybe another comment.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: Dry conditions also bring on some some spider mites and that.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: So I know that's another concern guys have is okay, you know, if it does get dry, we start seeing those guys show up, and then okay, now what do we do?
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_01: Do we spray or not spray?
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: So a lot of things up in the air uh as the uh growers move forward here.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: Not seeing much for bugs uh yet, anyways, right?
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: Not so much, some little bit of grasshoppers kind of here and there on edges, and and they kind of been here all year long.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: So guys have been doing a little bit of cleanup there, but uh as far as like aphids, uh saw some very few as we go to the east.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh really not nothing much today, anyway, and and not really ideal conditions for for those guys coming up.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: And then uh then that's the spider mites.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: Then we'll have to kind of see how that kind of plays out, but uh we'll see.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for joining us today, Jim.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: This will be the first uh real agronomic talk we have over the next uh week here.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna be talking with a few different people as well.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: Larry Osborne with Pioneer as well is gonna stop in.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: So it's gonna be a fun trip.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: Can't wait to hear what some people across at Corn Belt got to say.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Uh thank you for joining us today.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: I appreciate the opportunity.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: And as we wrap up uh today's podcast, just a few general observations about the grain market here this week.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans on the August contract closed$2.03 higher this week than last week.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: So a really big week in the gr in the grain markets, really led by the soybeans with that hotter, drier forecast that we just talked about with Jim there in the first half of August.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: So that is impacting the soybean market a little bit more.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: The corn ended up about 52 cents higher on that September contract.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: So that had a really good week, too.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: It was kind of getting drug along by the soybean market.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, into the weekend here, we did see the corn try to separate itself out a little bit more from the soybeans.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, weather is gonna play a little bit bigger factor, as Jim just mentioned there for the soybeans in August than it will with the corn wrapping up.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe the first week will play a big one here.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: But other than that, folks, we uh we're walking into this weekend with a hot and dry forecast.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: And think of it like a July 4th weekend forecast where things can change.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: And if we do change up that forecast to a little bit cooler, wetter forecast, we're gonna see things uh try to back off and take some risk back off.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: But we did see money pile back into this market this week, some really good strength.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: We also saw uh besides the weather portion of uh these markets, we did see some outside influences with uh with Russia and the Ukraine situation.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: After their deal last Friday, we did see Russia continue to bomb two major ports that make up about 90% of their export market for the grains out of Ukraine into the Black Sea.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: So both those ports got bombed, and uh that continues to be uh a very volatile and risky situation.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: It continues to be uh a tough war to trade here as we move on.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: Uh wheat uh did have some strength through the wheat here, but we did end on a little bit more of a rough note.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: The livestock market, the cattle just can't seem to get out of their way.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: They had a really rough week here, hitting some resistance towards 136 on the August.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Saw the cash market continue to back up a little bit here, head towards the futures.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, the north pulling back to where that south market's kind of been trading at, and we continue to see that with low cash being in the lower 140s.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: And uh we saw another catalog feed report last week that Jeff and I talked about that failed to give us too much more uh optimism that we've been waiting for so impatiently.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: And then as well this week we had a lot of outside influence from things like uh the GDP report that came out.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: Uh consumer sentiment continues to fade.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: So things like uh this is a second time now we've seen GDP contract or go negative.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: So technically, depending on who you ask, we we could call ourselves or consider us in a recession here today in the United States.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, the U.S.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: government came out and said we don't quite have all the factors lined up to technically make it that yet, in their opinion.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: But either way, things are changing fundamentally in these financials, and uh, it's something to watch out for.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: And as that consumer sentiment fades, you saw people like Walmart and McDonald's talk about how uh how their consumers are switching to more just essential based buying, and we're already starting to see that a little bit here.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: We're starting to see the housing market back up, and when we start to see things like this, you're gonna see the pork market probably do a little bit better in that environment with more people smoking uh uh at home in their backyard, a little bit cheaper, can feed more people that way.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Where a choice meat, uh a steak downtown Sioux Falls is probably uh gonna be put on the back burner for a little bit and that as that demand could slow.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: So that could limit a little bit of this upside on the cattle market going forward as well.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: Something that uh we kind of saw coming eventually, right?
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: We have been talking about recession for a while, but now is really when we're starting to see the first glimpses of it.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: And uh to finish up on the livestock market here as we move forward, it's a little bit of a counter-seasonal rally for this hog market, and uh you're seeing that in the grain market as well.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: So I found that interesting this week.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: And uh please, guys, if you need to uh reach out to us to talk about some recommendations or uh how to manage this from a seasonal perspective, uh, it's something that needs to be talked about today and find some uh risk management options that really fit your business and uh fit your risk tolerance.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: So if you need anything, please give us a call.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Otherwise, we'll catch you next week.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: Almost every day we'll be coming out with a new podcast on the crop tour as we travel 2,000 miles plus across the Corn Belt to try to get a gauge of how this crop is doing and what all of you think out there.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: So if you have any samples, please send them in to us on Twitter or Facebook.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: That'll be the main resource there.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you guys.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great weekend.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: Please reach out to us from our website at professionalagmarketing.com.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: Or check out our newly added hog specific podcast named Hog Market Talk that's released every Thursday.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk and loss that is not suitable for all investors.