Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Trump JUST Flipped the FED: BUY NOW & DON’T STOP BUYING + Stock Market News 26 August 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Trump JUST Flipped the FED: BUY NOW & DON’T STOP BUYING + Stock Market News 26 August 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: President Trump just fired a Fed.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: President Winston just told me that, so I looked it up and he's right, and we need to understand the impact of that on the stock market and your portfolio.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: And I also want to walk you through two or three other key points that will make or break the market this week and also, as a bonus, show you how to actually invest when you are at the top of the market, like, what do you do?
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Do you run for the hills or do you keep going?
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Well, that's what we're going to cover in the next couple of minutes, so stick around.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: You're going to get some value out of this.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: You know what to do Smash the.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: You know what, and I will share my screen with you here.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: This is the letter that President Trump just sent to Governor Cook.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Pursuant to my authority, you are hereby removed from your position on the board of governors of the Federal Reserve, effective immediately.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: You may be removed at my discretion if there is sufficient cause to remove you from your position.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: I've determined that there is.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Now, this is all about some sort of mortgage this lady took out.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: I allegedly made statements that are not entirely true, so mortgage fraud is one way of describing it.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Whether or not that's true.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Again, I have no real interest in going into that, but it's an extraordinary move by a president to gain control over the Fed Because at the moment, there are essentially three people he appointed.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: There are essentially three people the other side appointed.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: This will be the swing vote to make the Fed rate cut friendly, so it's an extraordinary piece of news for the market.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Nick Liminaros, who is the sort of Wall Street Journal's probably only smart guy and he's sort of known as the Fed whisperer.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So if you want to follow one guy on Twitter, that's probably only smart guy and he's sort of known as the Fed whisperer.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: So if you want to follow one guy on Twitter, that's probably a good guy to follow if you like Fed news.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: And he says Cook said President Trump purported to fire me for cause, but no cause exists.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: I will not resign.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Her lawyer says the move is flawed.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Demands lack any proper process.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Basis of legal authority will take whatever action needed.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: So there'll be a legal case about this, obviously, but in the meantime, it puts tremendous pressure on the Fed to actually cut rates.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Now what happens when interest rates come down, when we are close to the top of the market.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Well, this is a lovely piece of data which tells you all the times over the last 45 years where we were within 2% of an all-time high, so really top of the market stuff.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: What happened the next month, I don't really care that much, but what happened over the next year and I think that's the key piece of information you might want to be writing down 100% of the time, the market went up on average by 13.9%.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know why I'm using a red pen.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: It's a bit gloomy and doomy, isn't it?
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: 13.9%, that's almost 14%.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: You can't really see that either, can you?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Not even with my glasses.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Here we go, plus 13.9%, which is a pretty good year for the S&P.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So what does that therefore mean for you and me?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Do we keep buying stocks?
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Do we go?
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Oh my God.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Well, the initial reaction of the futures market is certainly we're a bit concerned about this.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: The Fed loses its independence.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Does that shake up the belief and the trust in the US dollar and the US financial system?
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: And there's all that kind of stuff to consider.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: But there is also just simply the fact that, statistically, the market always goes up.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: And if you think about this, just think about this for a second.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Let me share my whiteboard with you so you can see what I'm talking about.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Well, we're going to touch on that piece of data in just a second.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: But think about what you're going to get.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: You're going to get lower rates.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: What do lower rates do?
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Well, one thing they do is they drive stock prices up.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: So stock prices, not just prices stock prices go up.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: We're getting lower corporate taxes right, that's passed.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: What does that do?
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: That drives higher stock prices.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: We have a massive, massive government spending right, they're spending more money than in, like wartime.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: What does that do?
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Well, that tends to drive up stock prices because it's just spending.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: So anything else?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, we've got one of the biggest technological shifts in the history of the world.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: That is actually going to drive more efficiency.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: So we have AI.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: What is AI going to do?
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Ai is going to improve how much money each employee brings in.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because you need less people to create more output.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: That's what that does.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: It's like what electricity did.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: It's what machines did.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: It's what computers did.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Like, you can do more nowadays than you could 50 years ago Faster, right?
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: It's the same story here.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So what is that going to do?
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Well, that's going to improve margins.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Well, what do higher profit margins do?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Well, it leads to higher stock prices.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So the bear case scenario is a little hard to see right now.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: So you essentially have a government massively pumping the market and then you have the private market doing its best to keep up with the AI thing.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: So there are some stocks, for example, that are popping up back on the radar.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: These are the 50 stocks that most frequently appear on the largest holdings of hedge funds.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Let me see if I can make that a bit bigger for you.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Not that much bigger.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Right, there we go.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: You want to take a screenshot of that?
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: These are the biggest hedge fund holdings right now Amazon at the top, microsoft, meta.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: These are not that surprising, but Tesla has not appeared on this list in years.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I would say, how many years?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Since 2022.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: So that's an interesting one.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Is that making a comeback?
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at that in just a second and, again, take a screenshot of this if you want to take this away, so to speak.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: And is there anything that could upset the market?
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Well, just when you thought Trump was going to make everything perfect for investors and I'm not saying this because I love or loathe Trump, or I'm a Republican or whatever.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: I don't really care about politics all that much.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I mostly care about my portfolio, my returns, my financial freedom, how I can provide for my family and myself, and I suggest you do the same thing.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: So ignore the whole noise around, whether you like this or not, and whether it's an outrage or any of that.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Just take the facts, use them to make better decisions, right.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: And if you want to learn how to do that make better decisions based on facts, take the emotion out.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: And also how to invest at the top of the market.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Well, can you see the link down here?
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: How to invest at the top of the market and keep your profits.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: There's a live masterclass this very Saturday at phoenixfundsorg slash training, 10 am, new York time, and we might just have something special up your sleeve as well, because I hear it's Labor Day coming up for you guys as well.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: So we're going to do something special there too.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: But yeah, join me for that If you want to learn, if you want to do exactly that.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: If you don't, don't, and it's live and it won't be recorded.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: No, because if you can't make the time to show up for it, you don't want it, you're not ready to learn.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: It's like a nice to have but it isn't really a must, and I kind of like teaching people for whom it's a must so we can get some real value there, because you're going to do something with the information.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: But yeah, trump just said that the US has incredible cards that could destroy.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: China Wants off 200% tariff on rare earth magnets, which is an odd move but weirdly, also possibly a logical move.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So at the moment there are people always talk about let's get a different color pen.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: People always talk about rare earths being rare.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Now, rare earths are actually not rare.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: They're everywhere Processing rare earths.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: So the processing part, which basically means you can then turn them into magnets, which is what you need for every electric motor.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: You have anything electric in your house.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: It needs a motor.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: You've got an EV it needs a motor.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: You have a wind turbine it needs a motor.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: You have pretty much any piece of military equipment.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: It needs magnets rare earth-based magnets.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: That processing is what China essentially has a monopoly on.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: So the US could weirdly tax magnets.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: It would mean the pays a lot more for magnets, but it would create a private incentive for US companies to spend a lot more on US domestic magnet manufacturing essentially.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: And at the moment the government is subsidizing that sector.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: They're taking shares in those companies, but he's basically saying, hey, we might do more.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: They're taking shares in those companies, but he's basically saying, hey, we might do more.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: They're guaranteeing prices.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: The Department of Defense will buy everything that you're making.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So they're basically saying, look, why don't we just make all the magnets 200% more expensive?
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: And therefore the private sector will step in.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Kind of a weird move, because the US is going to pay for most of that.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: But you can also see the sense in it.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: It creates the incentive for US companies to actually invest in this space.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: So there is an odd one for you, but it's a true one.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Now, all-time high investing.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Well, it isn't quite as simple as this, but if you go back to 1989, the returns after new highs have been better than at any other time, literally at all-time highs.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Investing at all-time highs, the returns have been better than if you bought the freaking dip right or the crash, the bear market.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: It's a it's a weird logic.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: And why is that?
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Well, generally speaking, we made all-time highs.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: No one's losing money, no one's selling, so you go higher.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: It's one of those simple, clear rules.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: We'll talk a bit more about that on Saturday to really break that down for you.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: But you see stocks like Nvidia reporting earnings on Wednesday.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: That's, of course, a big, freaking deal.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: If that's a disaster, then the market's going to take a breather.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: But if they come in as strong as they always have, then you know.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: And look at the last earnings, by the way, on the day, nothing.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: The next day, up 3%.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: The day after that, minus 2.3%.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: The market didn't really do anything and everyone's like it's all over for AI.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Well, from the earnings to right now, we're already up 32%, which is half a percentage day for each trading day, which is just an extraordinary performance by this company.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: So I'm bullish, I'm buying stocks.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: I'm actually loving some of these pullbacks.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: We're seeing some pullbacks on some good companies.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Some of the gold stocks are pulling back Okay, not that one, but some of the other ones I saw earlier.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Really solid businesses are pulling back a little bit Johnson, johnson, a little bit.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: So if you believe this rally is going to continue, really solid businesses are pulling back a little bit johnson, johnson a little bit.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: So if you believe this rally is going to continue for the reasons up above.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: You know, pullbacks are a beautiful thing because we get good companies cheaper, but I would be very selective and I would be very sector selective because some sectors have done a lot and other sectors really haven't done very much at all.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So we are still looking at those lovely sectors.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Biotech, for example Can we see a biotech ETF Hang on SP bio Okay, there we go.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Xpi It'd be easier.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: If you remember the ticker, I never do so.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: These are sort of sectors that are early right, really really early.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: We talk a bit more about that on Saturday, if you join me at FelixRensselaercom training.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: These are the sort of patterns that we're looking at and we're looking very, very, very selectively at things that are breaking out of these zones here and are, like you know, giving us good entry points into very, very good businesses.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So I think the opportunity the next six to 18 months is one of the best I've ever seen.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: And maybe you have strong political views on that, I don't really care.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Just follow the money.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Just follow the money.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Take all the politics out of your thinking.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: All the noise, all the emotions, all the news.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: I think the less news you watch, the better you get as an investor.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: You got to have rules.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: You got to have rules.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: You got written down.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: You got to have rules.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: You can teach somebody.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: If you don't have rules, you're just hoping.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Hope's not a strategy.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: It never has been.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: It's worked very well right now and it might work well right now for a while, but you're then going to fall on your face.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: That's, unfortunately, what happens to most retail investors.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: So if you're tired of falling on your face and if you still remember what it felt like to fall on your face, it wasn't all that long ago, was it?
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Remember the beginning of the year?
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Everyone's like it's all over right.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Everyone's panicking.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Actually, people were panicking last Thursday.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Remember that.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Well, get prepared.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Get prepared.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Make sure your risk management is tight.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Make sure you know how to exploit this generational opportunity of money printing, interest rate cutting, tax cutting, government spending, massive investment by government US government in sectors that weren't traditionally based in the US or haven't been, at least for decades.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Opportunity beckets, absolutely freaking everywhere.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: The question is just whether you'll take it.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Most people won't.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: So if you're one of those most people I don't blame you.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: You've been conditioned.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: It's more comfortable to sit back on a couch and watch Netflix and have a beer, it's more comfortable.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: But in 10, 20, 30, 40 years, who's more comfortable?
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: The guy or the girl who took a few hours out every week?
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: That's all it takes.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Give me three hours a week and I'll change the way you look at money, I'll change the way you invest, I'll change the way you manage risk and I'll change the way your portfolio behaves in good times and in bad times.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: So come and join us Thursday.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Felixfrenfriendsorg slash training Link is down below in the description.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: If you got some value out of this video, share it with somebody else so they can get some value out of this as well.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: That's the whole point, by the way, and I wish you a beautiful day.