Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | The Penix Mightier | MLB & WNBA & NCAA Football & NFL | 9/24/26

Transcript

Thursday BEST BETS | The Penix Mightier | MLB & WNBA & NCAA Football & NFL | 9/24/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: In your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: this mad.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't.
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: You fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: out That fell apart by its heart But it don't
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: get the crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: What's up everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports Thursday,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: September 24th. We went 2-1 on the show yesterday.
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: We got the under right with Milwaukee, Philadelphia. Henderson, I
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: think he only went five innings in the game. He
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: was good, but I think they kind of wanted to
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: limit him maybe a little bit, getting ready for the playoffs.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee still won the game, too. Their bullpen was good.
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: Philly's bullpen actually did their job as well, so the
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: bullpens helped us out with that under, believe it or not.
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, it made sense on the Milwaukee side, maybe
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: not the Philly side. Nola, I mean, he was not
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: bad in the game, although he gave up some runs
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: early in the game, but he had a good amount
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: of strikeouts, didn't really walk many guys, so he wasn't
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: really that bad. The under came through, though. I think
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: it was the right call. The Mets were winners as well.
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: I haven't really looked at the box score in that one,
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: but that was a win. I don't think it was misleading,
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: but I don't know. I've got to go look at
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: it and see. And we did lose the Angels play,
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: which kind of sucks because that was the heavier favorite
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: of all three of them, so it was still a
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: winning day, but not as winning as some two-in-one days
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: would be.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: Urania, not good in that game. I don't know what
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: else to say.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: Springs wasn't exactly good either, and Anaheim teased a little
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: bit by scoring a couple runs in the fourth and.
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: Fifth inning, I think.
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: I think they were down maybe 5-1 at one point,
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: or 5-0 even, and then it was like 5-3 in.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: The top of the fifth. I'm like, come on, man,
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: score two more.
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: No, they were not going to do that. And then
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: they never scored again after that either. So Angels did
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: not even score off of the A's bullpen, but I
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: didn't want to deal with either bullpen in that game.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: All right. We have many different sports in action. Football
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: is back tonight.
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: I do not like either football game tonight. I will
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: talk about them both, but there's a lot going on
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: in the NFL game that it's that game is like
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: you get whiplash trying to handicap the side in the
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: NFL game. So There's no way I want a part
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: of that game, really from any perspective, but I'm not
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: much of a totals guy.
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: Don't listen to Mr.
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: Thursday Night for this Thursday night game. This one is really,
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: really difficult to figure out, and it maybe even depends
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: on the number that you get on the game to
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: even figure out what you want to do with it.
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: I hate the game tonight.
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: And there's WNBA. It's like the end of the regular.
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: I think this is the last day of regular.
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: Season WNBA play.
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: I got nothing, but I have one baseball play, and
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: I'm not even sure if it's even good, but we have,
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: I don't know, 12, 13 baseball games here.
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: Some afternoon action here. St.
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: Louis and Pittsburgh finishing their meaningless series here.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, both teams look like they're trying to win.
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh did just lose a five-game win streak with a
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: loss yesterday, so sometimes that will hang a team over
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: when they.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: Lose a win streak here.
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: Both teams, I think, are kind of motivated here just
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: because it is a– divisional series but if you look
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: at this matchup I mean this pitching matchup has to
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: favor Pittsburgh here right but the money is not coming
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: in on them Pittsburgh is somewhat of a heavy favorite
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: here and you know it's Paul Skeens we know he
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: hasn't been himself this season really although who is the
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: real Paul Skeens I don't like Pittsburgh's bullpen setup here
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: they had a bullpen game yesterday so I don't really
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: love that I was wrong about the over in that
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: game yesterday though Pittsburgh used five relief pitchers yesterday.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: St.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Louis only used three. I think Libertore actually pitched well
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: for St. Louis yesterday.
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: I don't know what the hell that was. Did not
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: think that was going to happen. Kyle Leahy is on
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: the mound for St.
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: Louis this time.
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: I think he's better than Libertore, but he's not exactly great. 3.65 ERA, 1.34
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: whip is not that good. He's a bit worse on
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: the road, 3.94 road ERA. He was not good in
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: his last appearance against Washington. I believe we had Washington
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: in that game on the show with Cavalli, I think,
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: was pitching.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: First five, I think, is what I did in that game.
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: That was a winner.
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: Leahy has gone no more than three innings in any
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: of his last four outings. His team has lost three
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: of the four. He's not pitching well right now. I mean,
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: he's given up a bunch of runs, more runs than
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: innings pitched this month. Not a whole lot else to
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: say about this. He did face Pittsburgh. at the start
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: of that stretch, and he wasn't really that bad in
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: that outing. They limited him to three innings, but he
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: only gave up one run in that particular outing.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: However, he's not usually good against Pittsburgh.
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: They have 48 at-bats against him,. 354 average,. 978 OPS,
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: 16-5 straight-out walk ratio. That's fine, but the rest of
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: these numbers are not very good. That good start against
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh was at home, where it's more pitcher-friendly, and Leahy
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: does pitch better there. On the road, I think it's
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: a bit of a different story. Pittsburgh hits better in
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: their own ballpark, and it's not as pitcher-friendly here. Paul Skeens,
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: like I said, is starting for Pittsburgh here. I thought
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: they might shut him down, but they haven't done that.
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: He's got a 3.91 ERA, which is a lot worse
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: than you would expect out of him.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: 1.13 whip. I mean, he's still a good pitcher.
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: Even the non-elite version of Skeens is still pretty good. But, yeah,
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: I mean, his home ERA, 3.94, not great. He gave
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: up five runs last time out at home against Kansas City.
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: But I think he got unlucky, to be honest. He
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: got hit for a couple of home runs there. He
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: only gave up six hits, one walk, seven strikeouts. It's
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: not like he was out of control or anything in
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: that game.
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: He's given up some runs recently, but his command numbers
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: look all right, although his strikeout number is a little
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: bit down recently. He's got a low hit rate on
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: the season. His walk rate's fine. His strikeout rate is
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: still high. Those numbers are still good. 4.1 strikeout walk ratio, 10.3
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: strikeouts per nine. Those are all pretty good still. He's
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: usually pretty good against St. Louis, 258 average allowed. 646
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: OPS is.
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: Not very high.
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: 89 at bats we're looking at here. 28 to 2
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is really good. I mean, it seems
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: like Pittsburgh should win with this matchup, but again, the
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: money is not indicating that way. Leahy, by the way,
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: just to go over his overall numbers here, he's got
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: too high of a hit rate. He's given up more
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: than one hit per inning overall. By quite a bit,
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: that's not good. His walk number's not bad, though. His
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is mediocre. He's got a 3.1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: That's all right. 8.4 strikeout per nine. Also okay.
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: Looking at the money here, though, 79% of the tickets
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: are on Pittsburgh. 50-50 on the cash, though. Pittsburgh around
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: minus 160-something. So the money is backing St.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: Louis here. I still don't really see it.
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: The total's low, the total's at seven, so both pitchers
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: getting respect here, the money's coming in on the over
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: pretty strongly though, and you know, I mean, I can
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: see the argument for the over, like, it seems to
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: me like both pitchers are being overrated in this total here, like,
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: Leahy on the road, really, and Skeens, yeah, I mean,
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: I don't know, I don't know what to tell you,
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: he just hasn't exactly been himself here, so, Maybe the
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: over is the better way to play this game.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. You know me.
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: I don't really like playing overs with these lower totals,
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: although I am actually doing that today with my only
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: play today. I don't know, and I almost did it
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: twice today. This was not one of those games, though.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I still think Pittsburgh should come away
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: with a win here, though. I don't like their bullpen usage, though. Pittsburgh,
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: I keep forgetting to go over all the shit that
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: I usually go over. Pittsburgh's the 19th ranked bullpen. They're
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: better than St.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Louis.
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: St. Louis is 22nd, but Their ERA is like a
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: half run worse than Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's number six offensively.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: St.
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: Louis is not good in that department. They're number 26.
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: Arranged by OPS and WIP is how I do that crap. Yeah,
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: I mean, Pittsburgh first five still makes sense to me.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: I think isolating Skeens over Leahy and avoiding Pittsburgh's used
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: up bullpen, I still think that should be a winner
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: if you lay the half run with Pittsburgh in the
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: first five, but.
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: You know, I mean, I don't know, man.
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: To me, I just wouldn't think that the public would
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: even love Skeens at this point because of the season
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: that he's had.
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Who the fuck knows?
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Chicago, White Sox,
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: Kansas City. The White Sox still have something to play
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: for here as they're trying to win their division, but
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: also they're in pretty good shape for getting the wild card,
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: the last wild card.
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: If They don't win their division.
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: Toronto is now eliminated, I believe, so I will talk
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: about that when I talk about them. They lost both
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: doubleheader games yesterday to Baltimore. Yeah, kind of crazy. Toronto,
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: the team that was in the World Series last year,
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: they're not making the playoffs. That's baseball, man. Their offense
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: has been putrid this year. Anyway, White Sox, Kansas City.
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: The White Sox are the better team here. I think
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: people are going to look at these two pitchers and
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: draw incorrect conclusions about these pitchers. I think it looks
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: like Kansas City's pitcher in this game is better than
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: the White Sox, and I do not agree with that.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: So maybe that's one way to look at this game here.
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: The White Sox used four relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: is better than Kansas City's, though. Kansas City used four
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: as well. Kansas City still ranked last in WIP, although
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: I still think they're better than the A's. But other
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: than that, they're not good at all. They're one of
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: the worst bullpens.
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: The White Sox are okay.
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: They're number 16. White Sox are the better offense here
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: as well. They're number 10. Kansas City is, where are they,
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: number 18, tied with Arizona, which doesn't sound that bad.
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: But Kansas City, they do hit better at home, though,
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: so there is that.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: Which team won this game yesterday? I don't even know.
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: Kansas City actually won the game yesterday by one. So
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: they ended a five-game losing streak. And sometimes when a
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: team ends a losing streak, they will carry that momentum forward.
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: So decent situational spot, I guess, for Kansas City here.
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: Motivation is still going to be on the Chicago side, though,
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: because they're still trying to make sure they make the playoffs. Ideally,
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: they'd want to win this division. They're one game behind
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: Cleveland right now with a few games to go. Kansas
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: City's still going to show up too, though. They want
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: to spoil the party here, so it's a divisional series.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: They'll be motivated.
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: But I think David Sandlin is the better pitcher in
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: this matchup, even though he's got a 6.29 ERA for
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: the White Sox. 1.28 whip is not good, but it does.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: Indicate his ERA should be lower than this.
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I want to back him, though.
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's got a 7.62 road ERA. That's not good.
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: Wasn't good last time out against Detroit in that crazy
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: 11-8 game where the White Sox lost. He did pitch
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: well in the previous outing against St. Louis, but that
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: was in St. Louis against a weak lineup in a
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: pitcher-friendly ballpark. Sandlin recently has been alternating good and bad starts, though,
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: and he had a good one against Kansas City. The
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: White Sox won 22-1 in that game. I don't believe
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: it was Dobnock on the other side of that, although
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: I could be wrong.
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: Let me see. No, it was not.
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: It was a bullpen game, basically, for Kansas City. But, yeah,
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: I mean, Sandlin did okay in that game against Kansas City.
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: At home, though, Kansas City not as good on the road. Hitting-wise, Sandlin,
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: I mean, his hit rate is all right. He doesn't
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: really walk that many guys either. His strikeout rate is okay, too.
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: So these numbers don't really look that bad. Like, I
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: think his ERA is misleading. 2.5 strikeout walk ratio.
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: It's not great, but it's not horrible.
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: 8.7 strikeout per nine is all right as well. Sandlin
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: against the Royals. They have 17 at-bats against them. Mostly
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: it was that one start he made against them earlier
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: this year. 176 average allowed, 557 OPS, 5.2 strikeout walk ratio,
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: only one extra base hit in here, which is a
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: triple from Cagley and Oney. Yeah, I mean, I think
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: Sandlin might actually pitch all right here. That would be
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: my thought here. And if he's alternating good and bad starts,
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: this one would be a good one. Randy Dobnock is
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: pitching for Kansas City. I don't trust him, man. He's
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: got a way better ERA, 3.08, but his whip is
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: worse out of the two starters here.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: 1.33 whip. He's not as good at home. 3.93 home
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: ERA with a. 296 opponent batting average at home. I
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: think he's bad.
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: I mean, if you watch my show, you know that's
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: what I've been saying. Like, I don't know what else
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: to say, man. I mean, he's given up seven runs
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: over his last, whatever this is, nine and a third
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: innings or something like that.
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: That's not good. Yeah, I mean, he's not in good
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: form right now.
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: He's given up 14 runs over his last 21 and
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: a third innings.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: That was over the course of September so far.
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: That's not good. He's not having a good month here.
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: The Royals have lost four of his last five starts.
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: He lost six of his last eight. His hit rate
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: is almost one per inning, which is not very good.
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is, I guess, okay. He doesn't strike
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: anybody out. He gets a lot of ground balls, but
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: the advanced analytics guys will tell you this is not good. 1.9
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, that's not good. There's a reason why
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: he hasn't really stuck around in the majors, man. This
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: has been like the longest that he ever has stuck
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: in the majors, and it's because he's pitching misleadingly well
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: right now. 5.9 strikeout per nine is also not very good.
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: White Sox only have two hitters who have faced him, though.
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: Benintendi and Vargas. Benintendi is three for five off.
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: Him with two home runs. They're overall three.
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: For six off him with two strikeouts, no walks. Benintendi
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: has all the hits off him, but still.
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: I would lean to the White Sox here.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: I mean.
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: They're the team that has more motivation.
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: I think Sandlin is better than Dobnok, and I think
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: you do have a bullpen advantage here, too, with the
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: White Sox. It looks too easy to play them, though,
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: and that's kind of the problem I have. Everybody knows
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: that the White Sox are the better team and they
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: need to win, so you're having to lay like minus
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: 120-something on the road here.
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know if Sandlin....
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, I can tell you he has not established
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: himself to the point where really he should be a
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: road favorite like that.
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: I don't know. And you saw his road numbers are
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: not very good.
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: 72% of the tickets are on the White Sox, 63%
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Kansas City. So the money is
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: back in Kansas City here. Yeah, I mean, I lean
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: White Sox, but I'm not going to do it. To me,
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: I think they have a misleading pitching edge in this game.
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: The White Sox do. So those are my thoughts on it.
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: The money is also heavily backing the over 8.5 in
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: that game. I mean, I guess I wouldn't totally disagree
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: with that. I mean, I think you have two pitchers
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: that could be shaky here, so maybe that is a lean.
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: But again, Sandlin has pitched pretty well against Kansas City,
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: although granted, like I said, that was at home where
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: he is a little bit better, and Kansas City's offense is.
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: Worse on the road.
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: So maybe Sandlin will be a little bit worse here
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: in a game at Kansas City. And Kansas City, you know,
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: they've moved the walls in, so it's more hitter-friendly there now.
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: So, you know, the over.
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: I suppose it makes more sense than the under in
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: that game at the very least. Miami at Chicago, the Cubs,
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: the other Chicago. Cubs are on the verge of getting
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: swept here at home.
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: Both games were close. This is pretty misleading.
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: They lost 8-2 in 12 innings the other day, and
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: then yesterday they lost by one. Maybe Chicago's going to
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: show up motivated here to avoid the sweep, man. I
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: usually like the better team to avoid the sweep at home.
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: That's usually the way I'm going to be looking. The
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: Cubs have something to play for here as they're still
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: in this wild card race here, trying to get home
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: field if they can here. I believe they're still tied
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: with Philadelphia because they both lost yesterday. And San Diego
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: actually is in the top wild card spot now. If
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: I'm getting that correct, I believe that's right. I think
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: all three teams might have lost yesterday, though. Or no,
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: San Diego actually won yesterday, right? They finally won. They
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: beat the Dodgers.
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I forget. Whatever.
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the Cubs will show up in this one, though.
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know if the Marlins are going
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: to be looking ahead. The Marlins have Atlanta next, though,
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: so maybe they will. I mean, that's a divisional series,
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: so I don't know if they're really going to overlook Chicago,
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: but if they're going to overlook them for anybody, maybe
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: it will be the team that's going to win their
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: own division.
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: The Cubs' bullpen... They used three guys yesterday. Miami used
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: three as well. These bullpens are both okay.
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: Chicago number 15, Miami number 12. Chicago's ERA is a
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: little bit better. Cubs are still the number one ranked
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: offense right now. Miami is number seven, tied with Tampa Bay.
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: Miami has Tyler Phillips on the mound here. Don't love
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: that for them. 3.45 ERA is all right, but 1.31
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: whip is not really that good.
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: He's also not good on the road.
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: 4.83 road ERA. He hasn't gone deep into some of
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: these recent outings here. So a lot of times he's
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: sort of like an opener, like a long opener, depending
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: on how you want to look at this, where sometimes
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: he'll go like three, four innings.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: Sometimes he goes a little bit longer than that.
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: I guess depending on how he's pitching, he hasn't exactly
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: killed his team though. He hasn't really allowed that many
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: runs in these outings here recently, but I don't love
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: everything I'm seeing here. Like his walk rate's not really
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: that good. His hit rate is okay on the season.
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is too high. His strikeout rate is
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: fairly low. So advanced analytics will come in and not
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: like that. Even though he does induce a decent amount
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: of ground balls, he's got a 1.2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: That is not good. Low strikeouts combined with high walks.
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: You don't want that. 7.3 strikeout per nine isn't great either.
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: His numbers against the Cubs are pretty bad. 29 at bats.
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: Not a huge sample here, but everybody in this lineup
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: has faced him pretty much. 345 average, 1,042 OPS, 4-2
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. None of that is good, so I
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: expect the Cubs to at least get some runs here
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: after they haven't scored much at all in this series.
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: They've only scored four runs in this series, man. I
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: think they're going to put up more in this one.
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: Matthew Boyd is pitching for the Cubs. He's not great,
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: but I think he is the better of these two
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: pitchers here. 4.06 ERA, 1.22 whip. However, if you do
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: want to back him, his numbers are not good at home. 5.53
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: home ERA. He was good in his last start at
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: the Reds. Good enough, I guess, but I don't know.
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: He's had some issues recently, I would say.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: He's just been kind of mediocre, I would say. Prior
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: to that start, the Cubs had lost six starts in
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: a row of his. although he wasn't really bad in most.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: Of those starts.
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: He was okay for the most part. His hit rate
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: is all right. His walk rate's all right. His strikeout
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: rate is kind of low, though, so not really great
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: strikeout stuff here this year. 2.5 strikeout walk ratio is
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: lower than what he posted the last couple of years.
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: Seven strikeout per nine is also a bit lower, so
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: he is a little bit worse this year than he
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: has been.
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: He's also... I think I mentioned he's also.
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: Not good at home. 5.53 home ERA. So that goes
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: against him here. Miami, I don't know how this is
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: possible because Boyd has been around forever. Miami, they don't
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: have a single batter who's ever faced him before in
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: a major league game. That is very strange to me.
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: But I guess Boyd has the unfamiliarity edge, if you
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: want to call it that, where the hitters.
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: Might have to figure him out on the fly. However.
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: There's a lot of tape on Boyd out there. I mean,
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: he's 35. He's spent a long career in the majors
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: at this point, so he's not really exactly a mystery.
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: I think the Cubs should win. I would prefer Boyd
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: over Phillips here and maybe the Chicago bullpen as well.
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: The money is back in Chicago. The problem is you
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: have to lay minus 200.
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: If you want them.
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: 85% of tickets, 94% of the cash on them. They're public-ish,
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: but it looks like some of the real money might
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: be on Chicago here as well. I think they do
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: have the better pitcher and the situational edge here, but
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: you'd have to lay minus 1.5 with them probably, and
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: with a low total again here with 7, 7.5, whatever
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: the hell this is. Laying the 1.5 runs with a
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: home team, not exactly something I would love to do
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: with a low total like that where you need them
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: to score, win by margin here. I think an over
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: is worth considering here. Like I said, I'm leaning towards
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: some overs with some low totals today, man, which usually
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: is not a good idea because the odds.
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: Makers are not misleading you.
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: They know what they're doing, so when they put a
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: low total up like this, they're telling you it should
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: be lower scoring. Could possibly be the wind blowing in
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: here in Wrigley, because remember, it is Wrigley Field. And
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: it's getting a little bit colder here up north, so
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: the cool air might help keep some of these games under.
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: Like Red Sox in Fenway right now, they're playing in
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: like 50-something degree weather right now in these night games.
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: I don't know about the Cubs. This is an afternoon
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: game with Chicago here, though.
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: It's going to be 65 there, so it's slightly cool,
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: I guess. I still think an over makes some sense here, though.
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: Boyd is not that good at home. Phillips isn't good
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: against the Cubs, and he's not as good on the road.
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: 69% of tickets, 92% of the cash on the over. Yeah,
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: those would be my leans. I would lean towards the
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: Cubs in some fashion here. You could take the Cubs
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: over their team total, as that would be the natural
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: conclusion of this.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: Then you avoid Boyd. Avoid the Boyd. You know what
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: I mean? Not the Noid, like in The Simpsons.
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: But.
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah like if you wanted to do that because boyd
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: could pitch well here because he's unfamiliar to miami or
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: he could suck because he sucks at home if you
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: want to take that mystery out cubs over their team
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: total after they haven't hit well the last two days
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: that makes sense i don't know if bregman is going
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: to be back after he got hit in the face
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: in the on deck circle uh by a foul ball
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: off of one of his teammates bats i don't know
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: if he's back yet or not um we will see
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: um Chicago still has a good offense anyway, though, even
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: if they have one guy out of the lineup, so
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Yeah, but those are my thoughts on
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: that game. Chicago over their team total might make some
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: sense given the natural conclusion of liking the over and
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: leaning towards Chicago here.
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: You'll need them to score.
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: You might need them to get to six, though, and
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: they've scored four runs combined over the last two games,
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: but this might be a setup where they're able to
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: actually do that and get some offense going here.
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: The Mets at Texas.
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to be playing this one, but Texas, man,
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: they've had, I think, a pitching disadvantage in every game
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: in the series, and I think they have another one here.
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: This is not looking good for Texas. They pretty much
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: need to win their division. to get into the playoffs here. They're,
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: they're still tied with Houston because Houston lost again yesterday.
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: Seattle is still not eliminated by the way. Uh, Seattle, uh,
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: is playing Houston. They just played Houston. Uh, yeah, Seattle's
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: still playing Houston today or no, wait.
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: No, no, no.
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: Seattle and Houston are both playing the A's and the
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: angels now.
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: So this is going to get really interesting.
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: I think, um, Likely Seattle's done, but they're not technically
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: eliminated yet. But anyway, Texas, they got to be motivated
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: here because they're trying to win their division. But this
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: does not look... Again, it looks like a bad pitching
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: matchup here. We got the game right with the Mets yesterday.
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: I guess I can look at the box score to
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: see if it was misleading in any way. It was
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: tied late in the game, so the game was a
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: little bit closer than that. But, I mean, McClain, obviously,
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: outpitched Bradford here, so I still think it was the
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: right handicap. McClain went seven innings. He was good in
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: the game. And then the bullpen finished it off for
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: us in the game yesterday. So with the ex-Yankees that
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: the Mets have here. But again, I think the Mets
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen still and the better starting pitching
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: here in this one.
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: Mets used two relief... Wait, what? I thought the Mets used... No,
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: they only used two relief pitchers, I guess. They used Williams.
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: I thought they used... Who was the other guy they
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: got from the Yankees? Oh, no, they traded him away.
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: What am I saying? Yeah, it was Luke Weaver. They
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: traded him to Pittsburgh, I think. Never mind.
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: So they used Devin Williams yesterday, but not as their closer. But, yes,
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: the Mets used two relief pitchers yesterday. They did use
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: the back end of their bullpen, though, I think, a
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: little bit to kind of finish it off. Texas used five, though.
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: Texas is already the lesser bullpen here. Texas is number 20.
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: The Mets are number six. So I'm still going to
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: give the Mets the bullpen edge here. Texas is the
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: better offense slightly, number 20. The Mets are number 24.
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: But this pitching matchup, again, looks like it favors the
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: Mets here. So not good pitching matchup set up for
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: Texas in this series, man. This has been bad for them.
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: The Mets are still trying to win games. Hand it
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: to the Mets, I guess, for at least maintaining motivation.
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: Zach Thornton is pitching for the Mets here. He's been
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: pretty good. I think he's a rookie. 3.4 ERA, 1.15 whip.
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: That's pretty good.
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: He's been really good on the road. 2.86 road ERA.
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: Last two starts are both solid against the Yankees and Philadelphia.
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: He wasn't good before that against San Francisco, though, which
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: doesn't look good because they're not a good offense. But
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: then he bounces back with good performances against better offenses
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: than that.
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know.
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: That's interesting. Thornton, he's mostly in good form here. Besides
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: that San Francisco start, most of the starts have been good.
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: In fact, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: every start except that San Francisco one and a start
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: against Washington to start his major league career, I believe
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: is what that was. His hit rate is all right
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: on the season. His walk rate is really low. His
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate isn't really that good, though. But 3.5 strikeout
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: walk ratio, because he doesn't walk anybody, really. 6.7 strikeout
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: per nine, that's not that good. You know, the advanced
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: analytics guys will point out, well, this guy doesn't miss bats.
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really strike guys out. But whatever he's doing,
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: he's pitching effectively, man. And the Rangers have never seen
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: him before. They're not that intimidating of an offense, especially
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: when he's faced other good offenses this year. This is
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: a pitcher-friendly ballpark. So I do think Thornton should pitch
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: well here again. Rangers will have to try to figure
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: him out on the fly. Thornton should pitch well, and
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: I think he has the matchup edge here against Kumar Rocker,
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: who I don't really think is that good. 4.47 ERA, 1.42
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: whip is pretty ugly. Rocker has not been good at home, 4.87
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: home ERA.
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: He hasn't made it past four.
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: And a third innings in his last two outings, although
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: they kind of limited him, I guess, and he only
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: gave up one run in each of them, so he
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: wasn't that bad.
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: In those innings, but one of them was.
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: Against Toronto, and we know they suck offensively. I don't
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: really trust Rocker here, man. He's been too hittable this year.
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is over one per inning. His home
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: run rate's not even really that good, even though he
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: pitches in a pretty pitcher-friendly stadium. He's got a high
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: walk rate. His strikeout rate is just okay. Not a
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: lot to love here. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio is not great. 8.4
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: strikeout per nine is okay. Only one hitter has ever
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: faced him in the Mets lineup, though. Christopher Murrell is
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: one for two often with a single. No strikeouts, no walks.
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: I'm still leaning to the Mets here yet again, though.
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: I think Thornton is the better pitcher over Rocker. I mean,
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: that's what we've seen so far. Yeah, they're both unfamiliar
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: to the opposing lineups, so I guess there might be
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: an argument for an under in this game.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: The money's coming in on the over, though. The total...
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: is around 8, 8.5, which.
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: Is, I guess, slightly higher than what you usually see
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: in a Texas game, but the market read is definitely
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: agreeing with the Mets. 59% of the tickets on Texas,
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: because everybody kind of knows Texas needs to win, but
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: you know that's being built into the line, and it's
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: minus 130-something, even though I think the Mets have the
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: better pitching in this entire game, and you're going to
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: be getting the Mets as an underdog here. 79% of
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: the cash on the Mets, so yeah, I would lean
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: to the Mets yet again in this game, even though
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: I don't really want to do it here because Texas
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: is one of those home teams that is trying to
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: avoid getting swept, which is a motivator in of itself,
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: but also they're trying to make the playoffs. So Texas
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: is highly motivated here. It's just the pitching matchup has
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: not favored them in any game in the series, and
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: it again does not. So tough break for Texas in
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: this series, man, with the pitching matchups.
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: It's just the way that it is. I don't know
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: what else to say.
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I think getting the Mets as an underdog
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: with that matchup makes sense to me in that one.
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: Arizona at Colorado. Arizona, I mean, they're technically still alive,
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: I think. I think they're four games out of the
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: wild card right now. They're not going to make it,
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: but I believe they do play San Diego next.
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: So, you know, maybe.
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: Arizona could stay alive. They have stayed alive so far
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: in this series. Colorado's trying to avoid a sweep here.
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: at home so Colorado does fall into that motivated category
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: where they get a chance to kind of try to
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: play spoiler here if they can but Colorado I thought
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: their best shot at winning a game in the series
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: was yesterday with the way that pitching matchup looked in
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: Colorado still fell short and lost by two did they
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: win in the first five I don't know let me.
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: See Because that was one of my opinions in the
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: game yesterday. No, they didn't. They gave up four runs
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: in the first inning. Oh, God.
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: Anyway, I don't think Colorado has a pitching matchup edge
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: in this particular game either, though. So I would not
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: want to be back in Colorado here. They also don't
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: have a good bullpen. They used two guys yesterday. Arizona
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: used four. Arizona is still the better bullpen. They're ranked fifth,
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: although I don't think they're that good. Colorado is number 26, though.
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: They're definitely worse than Arizona.
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: It's not even really close. Colorado is better offensively. They're
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: number five.
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: Arizona, number 18, tied with Kansas City, as I already mentioned.
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: Their offense is doing some things in Colorado, though, of course,
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: because every offense gets a boost in Colorado. erod is
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: pitching for arizona here eduardo rodriguez he's had a good
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: season that has mystified the advanced analytics guys because he
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: doesn't strike anybody out at this point he's got a 2.89
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: era 1.23 whip that whip does indicate his era should
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: be higher than this but he's had a pretty good
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: season overall and he's been good on the road 2.45
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: road era will he pitch well in cores though i
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: don't know His last start was bad at home against
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: the Yankees, but maybe you could argue that was an
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: outlier because he was pitching pretty well for a while
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: up until that point. He had good numbers against the Yankees,
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: if I'm not mistaken, though, so I thought that Arizona
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: would play a lot better in that game. I think
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: I leaned Arizona pretty strongly in that game, first five. Obviously,
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: they did not get it done. Maybe Erod bounces back, though.
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: it's hard to say like, is he actually like falling
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: out of form here? He did give up a lot
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: of hits against Texas in the previous start too, even
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: though he kind of just, his fielding let him down
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: in that game against Texas though. And it looks like
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: he couldn't get out of whatever inning it was because
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: half the runs he allowed in the game were unearned
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: in that one. Um, His hit rate is low on
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: the seasons. That's the best thing about him is he's
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: been hard to get hits off of. His walk rate
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: is not great. His strikeout rate is not great either,
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: which is why advanced analytics guys have an issue with him. 2.3
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is not great. 6.9 strikeout per night
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: is also really low, lower than what he's ever posted.
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: He is usually good against Colorado. 83 career at-bats, 205
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: average allowed, 515 OPS average. 19-5 strikeout walk ratio. So
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: typically he does do well against this lineup. Now, is
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: he home run heavy? I would say not particularly. He
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: is definitely fly ball heavy, but I don't know. His
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: home run rate isn't really that bad.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. Will he pitch poorly in cores?
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: He pitched here once this year in May, and he
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: gave up a lot of hits in that game, but
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: he didn't walk anybody, and he held Colorado to three
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: runs in five and a third.
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: So he was mediocre in that start, I would say.
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: Overall, it looks like he might be able to bounce
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: back and pitch okay here, though. But hard to say
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: in Coors Field. However, Colorado's going with Tanner Gordon, and
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: he sucks. 6.01 ERA, 1.55 whip. He's been awful at home. 8.2
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: home ERA. He hasn't pitched that much this year, but
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: when he has, yeah, it has not gone well. He
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: got lit up by San Diego last.
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: Time at home.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: He got.
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: obliterated on the road in the start before that against Detroit.
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: He's been awful in his last three starts with an
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: ERA over 12. He's allowed more than two hits an inning,
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: like close to three hits an inning over his last
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: three starts. That's insane. Even though he doesn't really walk
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: that many guys, it doesn't even matter. He's extremely hittable.
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: He's throwing batting practice out there. His strikeout rate isn't
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: really that good either, although his walk rate is low,
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: so Yay for him, I guess.
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: His home run rate is high.
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: He's a fly ball pitcher, so that doesn't bode well
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: for pitching in this state, in which we've already seen
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: he does not pitch well here. His numbers against Arizona
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: are okay. It's a small sample, 28 at-bats, six hitters
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: have faced him, 250 average, 680 OPS, 6-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: I would still not want to try to back Colorado
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: in this one, although the money is coming in that way.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: 89% of tickets on Arizona. Colorado is trying to avoid
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: the sweep, and they were a big underdog here.
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: 51% of the cash on Colorado. Arizona's like minus 190
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: on the money line here. I don't know what else
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: to say about this. I mean, I think Arizona should
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: win this game. I think they have the pitching edge
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: throughout this game. It's just the price is not very good.
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: They're going to be.
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: More motivated, but everybody knows that, and it's built into
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: the price, so I don't know. And then the money
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: is back in the over 10 here. it's not that
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: high of a total for a Coors game, which maybe
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: the over does come through here. I mean, again, the
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: logical conclusion of this, like I said with the Cubs,
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: would be to just play Arizona over their team total.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: Then you don't have to worry about figuring out Erod.
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: You could just go with Arizona to beat up on
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: Colorado's pitching. However, as I already pointed out, Arizona's matchup
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: numbers against Gordon actually aren't really that good. So....
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's not a game where I really want
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: the over here either. And you might even be able
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: to make an argument for an under in the first
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: five here just based on the matchup numbers, which you
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: don't want to overrate matchup numbers, although I am going
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: to do it with my one play.
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: So I guess be aware of that. I don't know.
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee, Philadelphia, we got the under right in this game yesterday.
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: These teams have split the series so far. Nothing is
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: loading for me, so that's awesome.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee got the win yesterday.
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia is trying to get the top wildcard spot still.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee is still trying to.
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: Secure the number one overall spot above the Dodgers. This
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup looks kind of ugly, though, in this one.
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: This is not a game where I want to play
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: an under, I'll tell you that. Milwaukee used three relief
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday. Philadelphia is the worst of the two bullpens today.
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: They used two, but the bullpens did well for us
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: in that under game yesterday. Milwaukee's number eight out of
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: the bullpen, but I think they're better than that. I
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: think they're number three or four. Philadelphia's not as good.
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: They're number 18, but they were good enough to get
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: it done for us yesterday at least. They're at least
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: better than horrible, I would say. Milwaukee's better offensively too,
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: though they're number four. Philadelphia number 22, although Philadelphia does
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: hit better at home. Milwaukee is going with Bryce Wilson
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: on the mound here. He's coming back from the injured list.
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: He's mostly been a relief pitcher this year. He's got
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: a 3.67 ERA, 1.28 whip. I kind of remember, like,
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: making fun of this guy because I'm like, oh, you know,
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: this is a bullpen game when he's listed as a
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: starter or whatever, but he's kind of proven me wrong. Like,
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: he hasn't really pitched that badly. Although, some of these
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: numbers don't look that good. Like, his whip isn't really
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: that good at 3.52 ERA on the road is all right,
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: but a 3.02 opponent batting average on the road is
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: not good. So he's been a little bit hittable. He
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: hasn't made a lot of long appearances here. It looks
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: like he's been on multiple different teams this year. He
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: was on Philadelphia, then he was on the Cubs, and
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: he's been on Milwaukee since the trade deadline. So he's
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: been moving around all over the place, man.
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know what else to say.
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: That's not necessarily a good sign. His hit rate is
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: too high on the season. Good strikeout walk ratio, though
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: he hardly walks anybody. But even so, I don't think
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: he's going to be in the game that much. So
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: I don't think we really need to look at him
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: too much here. I mean, I guess we could see
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: what his numbers look like against Philly, I guess. But
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: I think he's going to be an opener. It's going
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: to be like a bullpen game for Milwaukee here. Wilson
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: does not have good numbers at all against Philly. 333 average,
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: 938 OPS allowed, and 48 at-bats, 7 of 5 strikeout
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. But again, I think he's only going to
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: pitch a few winnings. here at most philadelphia is going
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: to go with andrew painter here um he has this
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: is rookie season and It hasn't been good. 5.59 ERA, 1.42 whip.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: Obviously, that's not good.
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: But he's been better since they recalled him again from
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: the minors, at least. Although his home stuff has not
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: been good.
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: 6.11 home ERA.
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: 2.83 or excuse me 283 opponent batting average at home
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: that's not good now they sent him to the minors
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: they brought him back up um in late july and
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: he pitched well for a while he's had three bad
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: starts in here since then but two of them have
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: been in his last three outings so is he starting
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: to regress a But he's definitely improved since they sent
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: him back down to the minors, though, so you've got
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: to give him that. He's definitely been better since then. Overall,
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: his numbers aren't really that good. His hit rate's too high.
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is not excellent. His strikeout rate is
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: not great either, really. 2.4 strikeout walk ratio is not great.
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: 8 strikeout per 9 is whatever. Against Milwaukee, he has
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: not done well, though.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: In 20 at-bats, 300 average, 891 OPS, 3-3 strikeout walk ratio. So, yeah,
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: I think maybe this is an over. That might be
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: the better way to look at this. Well, the money
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: seems to be back in the under here. Total is
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: not that high. It's at 8 or 7.5, which, you know,
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: like I said, there are a lot of games today
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: where I like.
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: The over, a low total here.
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: And maybe it's because it's getting cooler in some of
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: these northerly games here.
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. Like, we're in the northeast here
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: with Philly, but.
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: 63% of tickets, 77% of the cash on the under here.
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: I would not back the under here. Like the pitching
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: looks like it's pretty ugly in this one. So I
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: still think the over makes the most sense here. Uh,
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: Philly is actually favored at about minus one 20.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: Is that too much respect to give painter here? Milwaukee
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: is going to be a public side. I think because
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: they have the better record, 56% of tickets, 57% of
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: the cash on Milwaukee, hard to gauge what that means.
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: Like is, is there actually professional money on Milwaukee? I'm
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: not so sure about that. Um, Does Painter deserve to
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: be a favorite, though? I mean, I know he's going
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: up against a bullpen game.
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's hard to figure out the side for
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: me in this one, so I think if I was
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: going to play the game at all, I think I
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: would take it over the total. All right, Cleveland and
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox. We have another cool atmosphere game here.
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: Does that mean it's going to keep the run total down?
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: I'm not so sure because I actually like the over
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: in this game, too, even though it's a low total
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: in this one.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: This has been a low-scoring series.
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: We had a 3-2 Cleveland win in the first game,
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: and yesterday the Red Sox won 1-0 behind another good
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: start from Sonny Gray. Red Sox stranded a lot of
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: base runners in that game, though, man. It seemed like
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox were constantly threatening.
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: Look at this.
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox had 12 hits in the game, and
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: they scored one run. That is unbelievably misleading. The Red
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: Sox should have won this game more easily than they did.
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: Like I said, I watched the highlights of it, and
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox were constantly threatening players. and stranding runners
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: on base. Griffin, I mean, it looks like he pitched
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: all right, but he got hit around in this game, man.
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: He didn't walk anybody, but he got a little bit
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: lucky that he only allowed one run because he allowed
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: 10 hits in six innings. So the Red Sox should
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: have scored more than they did, but the Red Sox
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: did have to use all of their better relief pitchers
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: to get that win.
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: I guess they really wanted it because.
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox, I believe they clinched the number two
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: wild card spot with that win yesterday. I thought they
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: had already done that, but they hadn't done that yet.
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: So they used Guerrero, Whitlock, and Chapman out of the
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: bullpen yesterday, and those are their three best relief pitchers.
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: So Red Sox still do have a good bullpen, though.
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: But yeah, those are the three guys they used yesterday
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: out of the bullpen. Cleveland's bullpen is not bad either, though.
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: They used three guys out of the bullpen as well.
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: but Armstrong for one pitch. I think he just came
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: off the injured list. Good name for a pitcher, Armstrong.
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: Cleveland is number 10 out of the bullpen. Red Sox
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: are number one, but the Red Sox did use their
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: three best relievers yesterday, like I said, so that takes
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: their bullpen edge down a little bit, but I think
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: generally we can still say these are both good bullpens here.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: The offenses, the Red Sox have been the better one,
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: but They've dropped off a little bit. They're number 13
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: right now, tied with the Yankees.
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: And they're almost tied with the Yankees in.
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: The bullpen department, too. It's kind of crazy that the
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: teams have wound up having similar statistics right at the
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: end of the season here. And they're going to play
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: each other in the wild card round, too.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: Oh, God.
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: For the second straight year. Hopefully it goes differently this
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: year for the Red Sox.
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: I don't know if it will. And Cleveland, I mean,
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: they're not a good offense.
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: Cleveland is number 28, so they're definitely deficient offensively. Cleveland's
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: going with kind of a bullpen game here with Daniel
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: Espino listed as the starter here.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: Or Espino, I don't know if there's a tilde on
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: that thing, or whatever it is.
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: 4.73 ERA for him, 1.43 whip.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: Not good numbers here.
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: He is young, though, I don't know, and he's been
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: good on the road ERA-wise, I guess, 2.57 road ERA,
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: but He's going to be an opener, so I don't
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: think we really need to go into this too much.
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: I mean, the Red Sox, I don't think I've ever
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: faced him, but he's going one to two innings in
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: every one of his outings, so that's what you're going
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: to get out of him. He has high strikeout stuff.
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: His strikeout stuff is good, but he walks too many guys.
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: His hit rate isn't really that great, so The good
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: thing about him is he strikes out a lot of guys.
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: That's what we can say about him.
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: But you're going to get a Cleveland bullpen game here,
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: whereas the Red Sox probably have the starter who's going
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: to actually go deeper into this game because Ronyer Suarez
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: is an actual starter here.
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: 3.27 ERA, 1.2 whip from him. He's not as good
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: at home, though. 3.82 home ERA.
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: It looks like they're setting him up to be their
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: number three man in the playoff rotation here. He walked
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: five guys in his last outing against Tampa, which was
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: not good, although he picked up a win and only
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: gave up one run. And he's picked up a win
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: in his last three straight outings and allowed one run
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: or zero in all three of them. But that walk
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: rate last game, A little bit concerning, but it also
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: could have been a little bit of an outlier because
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: he only watched one guy in the previous 14 innings.
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: So for the most part, Suarez is pitching better right now.
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: And they're letting him go like his full workload again
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: here recently after they're ramping him back up after his
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: groin injury like about a month ago or so or
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: a little bit over that. He's got a low hit
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: rate on the season. His walk rate's not too bad.
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is okay. Yeah, I mean, he's been
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: a good acquisition for the Red Sox as one of
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: the offseason acquisitions here.
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: He's got a three strikeout walk ratio, which is all right.
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: 8.5 strikeout per nine is fine. He's not good against Cleveland, though.
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: I don't know why, but they have 44 at-bats against him.
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: And even though he's a lefty, Jose Ramirez is a
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: lefty as well, isn't he, or.
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: Is he switched? Oh, he switched. Never mind. I'm like,
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: wait a minute. What?
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: Jose Ramirez hits him hard, but Cleveland has a 386
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: average and 890 OPS against Suarez with 10 strikeouts, two walks.
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: The strikeout walk ratio is good for him, but for
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: whatever reason, he's not been good against Cleveland. Fry and
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: Ramirez both do well against him, and some of these
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: other hitters have done well against him too, so I
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: actually like the over in this game. Yesterday's game was
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: misleadingly low scoring because the Red Sox were constantly stranding
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: base runners. But the odds makers know what they're doing
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: with putting a total of seven out here.
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: So I don't really want to go over a low
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: total like that unless I have a really good reason
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: to do so.
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: And I don't think I do here.
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: Even if Cleveland goes with a bullpen game here, The
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: Red Sox still might struggle a little bit against that.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I mean, Cleveland's bullpen is at
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: least good.
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: Suarez is usually good, although, again, against Cleveland, he isn't.
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: But Cleveland's offense is also not good.
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: So it's like, I don't know.
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: There are a lot of competing factors here. But the
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: money does look like it agrees with me on the
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: over here. 55% of tickets on the under, 95% of
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. That is how I would
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: play it if I was going to play this game.
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: This one almost made the cut for me, playing the
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: over here, but it is also really cool here. I
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: was at the House of Blues for Mastodon last night,
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: so I was literally at Fenway Park pretty much. I
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: was on Lansdowne Street looking at the crowd and whatever.
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: By the way, I tweeted it out. I'm pleased to
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: tell you that... I mean, I'm not pleased that there
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: were a lot of Cleveland fans there, but whatever.
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, good. Go support your team. That's cool.
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: There are a lot of Cleveland fans in the crowd,
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: but I would say half of the Cleveland fans that
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: I saw were wearing Cleveland Indians merch, even like the
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: Chief Wahoo old hat and whatever, and the Indians jersey,
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: Indians jackets. I saw all that shit yesterday. I'm like,
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: hell yeah, man. They want it back, I'm telling you.
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: There is demand to bring back the Indians. Yeah.
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: This is woke garbage the guardians name is fucking terrible
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: like guardians looks like it's guardians and commanders those names
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: what they look like is they look like like one
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: of those old video games that you would get where
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: they didn't get the rights to use like the actual
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: names you know what i mean so they call the
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: team something else that's what it looks like like they're
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: the fake name uh of the team in those video
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: games that didn't get the rights um you know Whatever.
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: But yes, I like the over here.
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox have 80% of tickets, 85% of the
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: cash on them. Red Sox are down to about a
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: minus 120 something favorite here though. Looks like the Red
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: Sox are slightly public here.
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: I i can't figure out the side in this one
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: like normally i would say yes suarez is preferable to
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: a bullpen game but maybe not in this particular matchup
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: so i don't know i think the better way to
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: look at it is the over yesterday's one nothing game
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: was misleading at least on the side of the red
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: sox red sox should have won that game like six
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: to nothing or something like that you know Or 6-1
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: or something, rather than 1-0, based on the amount of
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: hits that they had. All right, Tampa Bay and New York.
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: Yankees got the win yesterday. Tampa Bay, I believe, switched
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: to a bullpen game yesterday. They were going to use
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: Seymour yesterday, and they didn't. They moved him to today. But,
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: you know, Tampa was out celebrating winning the division the
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: previous night. Like I said, Tampa's already clinched the division here.
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: And the Yankees have nothing to play for either at
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: this point. The Yankees have already clinched the number one
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: wildcard spot. So... There's nothing for these teams to really
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: play for here other than whether they want to beat
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: each other in this series.
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? So basically, these teams are free-rolling.
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: But I think the Rays were out celebrating after they
• 50:19
  Speaker 4: won the second game of the doubleheader two days ago.
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: They just were not in good shape to show up
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: for that game yesterday. I did tell you I leaned
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: to the Yankees yesterday, but it would have been a
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: stronger lean if I realized that Seymour was going to
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: get pushed back to today. So... Um, but still, I
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: think the Yankees might want to be in the right
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: side in the game today too, though.
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: Uh, the Yankees do have a bullpen edge.
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: Tampa used four relief pitchers yesterday. The Yankees did use
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: a five. It looks like here, but the Yankees do
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen. Uh, they're number four in bullpen.
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: Although I think they're like a top two bullpen at
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: this point. I would, it's them in the red socks.
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: And then, uh, What are we looking at here?
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: Oh, yeah, Tampa Bay.
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: They're ranked third, but they're not as good as the Yankees.
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: Their ERA is significantly worse.
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: Tampa's probably like a top 10 bullpen more so.
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: Not bad, though. Tampa is tied in seventh offensively with
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: the Marlins.
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: The Yankees are 13th tied with the Red Sox. Yankees
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: again are without Judge again right now. So that seems
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: to have impacted their offense when he's been out.
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: So we will see. Ian Seymour is getting the start
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: today now for Tampa. He's got a 4.3 ADRA.
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: I talked about it all yesterday, but 1.17 whip does
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: indicate that he's better than his ERA makes him look. 4.96
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: road ERA, though, so he's not that good on the road.
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: Didn't pitch that well in his last start against the
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: Red Sox, but he's generally been pretty good here. He's
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: pitched a lot out of the bullpen this year, though,
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: but he does have a low hit rate.
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: He does have a pretty low walk rate. He is
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: pretty home run heavy, though.
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: So that's a little bit of a problem that when
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: guys connect with him, they hit it hard.
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: But he also has a really high strikeout rate.
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: Some of that was because, you know, usually relief pitchers
• 52:04
  Speaker 4: have high strikeout rates because they come in and they're
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: throwing gas and going all out for like an inning
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: or two. So you have to take something off of
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: it when you're going to try to last five plus innings,
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: you know. But he's got a 4.3 strikeout walk ratio,
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: 11 Ks per nine.
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: That's all solid stuff here. His numbers are.
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: mediocre, I would say, against the Yankees, 39 at-bats. He
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: does have a really good 20-to-1 strikeout walk ratio against them.
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: That's a really good ratio, really high strikeout rate, and
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: very few walks. But he's allowed a 788 OPS to them.
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: So, again, the home runs have kind of hurt him
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: a little bit.
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: Rice and Bellinger have combined for three home runs against him.
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: Only a 231 average for the Yankees against them, though.
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: So I talked about it yesterday. Rice has two of
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: those home runs, by the way.
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: Yankees don't hit him for.
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: Average, but they have hit him for a little bit
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: of power, although Seymour I think is an all-right pitcher,
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: but he's also not as good as Cam Schlittler, who
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: is pitching for the Yankees here. He is going to
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: win the Cy Young at this point. 1.94 ERA is ridiculous. 0.91
• 53:09
  Speaker 4: whip is also really good. He's still in form over
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: his last— how.
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: Many starts in a row is this now? Eight starts
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: in a row.
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: He's allowed one or zero earned run, although he's faced
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: some pretty weak offenses in here, I'll tell you that,
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: but still, that's really good.
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: He's pitching really well recently.
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: He has not fallen off, even though he's approaching 200 innings,
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: which a lot of times when you get a young pitcher,
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: sometimes they're going to run out of steam at some point.
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: Hasn't happened for him yet. He's got a really low
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: hit rate. He's got a low walk rate as well.
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: High strikeout rate.
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: All those numbers are good. Five strikeout walk ratio is
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: really good. 11 strikeout per nine.
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, he's an elite pitcher, and he's also
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: good against Tampa Bay. 70 at bats, 243 average, 588 OPS,
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: 21 to three.
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: Strikeout walk ratio. That is all good.
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: This total is, yet again, we have an extremely low
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: total here, man. Another six and a half or even
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: six on this game, which is insane. But again, as
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: I've pointed out the last three days in a row
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: probably with all these sixes, six and a halves as
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: we get into cold weather here, which I think this
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: is going to be a cold weather game even though
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park, by the way, are usually
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: both more hitter friendly. I think the under is in
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: consideration here. And as I was about to say, as
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: I keep pointing out, playing the under long-term in six
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: and a half or six total games in MLB, does
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: result in a slight profit long-term. And I think it
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: makes sense. I think the under makes sense here. I
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: know there was a little bit of bullpen use suggested.
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: Both bullpens, I would say, are good. I think both
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: starters could do well enough. They both have good command
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: metrics here. So, yeah, I think the under actually is
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: what makes the most sense in this game, although I
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: also still lean Yankees as well. 79% of tickets, 88%
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the Yankees around minus 150. It'll
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: be hard to gauge the motivation a little bit here, but...
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: Schlittler is the better pitcher still, plus you get the
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: better bullpen with the Yankees. So you'd have to lay
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: a minus one run line with them, though. And laying
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: a run line in a game with a total this
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: low is not really.
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: Something I would want to do.
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: So because whenever the total is that low, a lot
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: of times I like the underdog when the total is
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: that low, because the underdog has a better chance to
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: hang around in a game like that. So that's what
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: I have to say about that. Uh, what are we
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: at next game up? We will be my only play.
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: Of the day.
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: Um, then I got to figure out when I want
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: to take a break before I come back and I
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: have to talk about all these other sports here. Cause
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: I know everybody wants football talk, but the football games
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: are not particularly interesting tonight. Um, I told you I
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: was going to take an over with a low total
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: and this is the game I'm doing it in Cincinnati
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: and Atlanta. I think we have a lot of things
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: going for us here, even though I, It's a little
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: bit questionable fading Atlanta's pitcher here, but I think everything
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: else lines up pretty well here for this.
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: This is not going to be that cool of a
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: game because it's Atlanta.
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: It's supposed to be 68 degrees, so it'll still be
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: warm-ish in this game, let's say.
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: Maybe it'll be a little bit warmer than that. Maybe
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: it'll get into the 70s. Who knows?
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: But I think this has a lot going for it, actually,
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: as far as the over is concerned. Even though I
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: know Atlanta's bullpen is good, I don't necessarily want to
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: fade them.
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: They used five relief pitchers yesterday, so.
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: Maybe their bullpen will be not in their best shape
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: here at the very least. Cincinnati's bullpen is bad. They
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: used three guys out of their bullpen. I'm definitely fine
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: with fading them. Atlanta's the number two bullpen, although I
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: think they're, in actuality, I think they're number three or
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: number four behind the Red Sox and the Yankees. Cincinnati
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: is definitely a fadeable bullpen, number 25, and their ERA
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: is in the high fours, so we could definitely fade
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: them here. Atlanta's a good offense. They're number 11, tied
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: with the A's, although Acuna got hurt the other day,
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: so I don't know what his status is. I guess
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: I could look, but I still like the over in
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: this game regardless, but let me see. Acuna is day
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: to day. So I guess we have to see, uh,
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: what's going on with him. I don't know if there's
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: any news on him. Uh, he did not play yesterday. Um,
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: I think he fouled a ball off his leg, but
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: he might play today.
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: We'll see.
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: Um, as far as the motivation is concerned though, um, Oh,
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: by the way, I forgot to mention Cleveland and Boston.
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: Cleveland has more motivation. So that is something you got
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: to consider with the... I apologize for forgetting that. Cleveland
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: is trying to win their division still, you know what
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: I mean? Or at least maintain a wildcard spot at
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: the worst. So Cleveland has motivation, whereas the Red Sox
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: are already locked into the number two wildcard spot after
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: winning yesterday. So the Red Sox have nothing to really
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: play for. So keep that in mind there. This game, Atlanta,
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: I mean... Atlanta might not have a whole lot to
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: play for. I think Atlanta's pretty much locked into the
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: number three seed in the National League.
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: So I really don't think they.
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: I think they are actually mathematically locked into that. So
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: I don't think Atlanta has a whole lot to play
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: for here. This game's on Fox Sports 1. Cincinnati's just
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: playing out the stretch here. I mean, they don't have
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: much to play for either other than maybe they want
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: to beat the Braves. I mean, they did actually beat
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: them in the first game. Both games in the series.
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: Have gone under the total.
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: So far with four and five runs in each game
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: of the Braves winning yesterday, but that was a Chris
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: sale game.
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, this, this game is not a Chris sale game.
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: So Atlanta was able to squeak out a win in
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: that one. Uh, but if you try to play like
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: a minus one and a half run line, you lost
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: on that one, which by the way, I told you
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: one of those, uh, big favorites was going to lose.
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: And it wound up being the Dodgers yesterday, even though
• 58:46
  Speaker 4: they had Yamamoto pitching. I didn't see that one happening,
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: but yeah, uh, I told you one of the big
• 58:53
  Speaker 4: favorites was going to lose, and that was.
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: The one that lost. Atlanta won, and actually, what was
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: the other one that was a huge favorite? I can't
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: remember now.
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: I forget. Maybe two of them lost. Was it the Cubs?
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: If it was the Cubs, then two of them lost. Anyway, um,
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: What else was I going to say?
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah.
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati, Atlanta. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right.
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: We're fading the pitchers here, man. I mean, that's what
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: it's all about. We're fading this specific matchup. Brady Singer,
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's an easy fade. I mean, he sucks. 5.67 ERA, 1.56 whip.
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: Terrible numbers. He's been even worse on the road.
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: 6.37 road ERA, 3.07 opponent batting average on the road.
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: He's given up six-plus runs in his last three outings. Yeah,
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: he's been bad for... However many outings in a row,
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: like at least four outings in a row for him
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: have been really bad. Granted, yeah, his last three outings
• 59:46
  Speaker 4: were against Milwaukee and the Dodgers.
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee twice.
• 59:49
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, he's facing a Braves team that's not as
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: good as those offenses, but they're still pretty good.
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: He's pitching terribly, dude.
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: He's got a 15-plus ERA this month with 15 walks
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: and only eight strikeouts. in 12 and a third innings
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 4: on top of 21 hits allowed yeah he's just getting
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: obliterated there's nothing to like about this at all and
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: his numbers against the Braves are not good either in
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: 87 at bats 276 average which you'd expect maybe it
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: would be higher than that but he has a lot
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: of 920 OPS to them they have seven home runs
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: against him in 87 at bats uh two a piece
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: from Murphy and Olsen by the way And if Acuna
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: is in the lineup, he does have a home run
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: off him as well. He's three for five. But even
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: if you take him out, they still have good numbers
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 4: against him. 26 to 11 strikeout walk ratio here. So
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: I don't see Singer pitching well here. But I am
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: also fading Tyler Molle here, even though he's been good
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 4: with the Braves.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: There's no doubt about that.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: 3.81 ERA, 1.22 whip. He's completely turned his season around.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: He's been good at home, 2.29 home ERA. I get
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 4: all that. He's in good form, so why do I
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: want to fade him here?
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: Because he's given up.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: One or fewer earned run in five straight outings and
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: two or fewer in literally every start with Atlanta. So
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: why am I playing the over here? Well, it's about
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: the matchup, man. Molly, by the way, his hit rate
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: is all right. His walk rate is all right as well.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is kind of mediocre. He's got a 6.3
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: strikeout by walk ratio with Atlanta, but three on the season. But, yeah,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 4: he's been way better with Atlanta. you got to think
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: the reality lies somewhere in the middle here.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? Like he was bad with
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: San Francisco.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: He's been really good with Atlanta, but in reality, like
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: his career is good, uh, but not as good as
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: what he's looked at with Atlanta. So I think the
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: reality does lie somewhere in the middle here. And I
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: think the reality is closer to what his overall numbers
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 4: are this season. Um, He does have an 8.3 strikeout
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: per nine on the season, which is all right, and
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: a three strikeout walk ratio on the season, which I
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: think is more in line with what he really is.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: But the reason I'm doing this is his numbers against
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: the Reds are horrible. It's 27 at-bats. I know that's
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: not a huge sample, and 12 of the at-bats are Hayes.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: So if he's able to pitch around him, maybe he
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: can do okay. But Stewart and Suarez have both done
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: a lot of damage against him as well. And De
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: La Cruz has a home run off him too. He's
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 4: got bad numbers against the man of 481 batting average
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: allowed 1650 OPS and seven to six strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: Those are numbers that I don't want to ignore them,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: even though I don't want to overrate like matchup numbers here,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: but those are really, really bad numbers. And yeah, I mean,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: of course, in a game like this, you're expecting Atlanta
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: to do the heavy lifting offensively.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: That's fine.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: Like as long as Cincinnati can get a few runs here.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: I think we can get this thing done and get
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: over this total, right? Like, give us like a 5-3
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: type of game or something like that and it'll go over.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: That's what I'm going to do here. Let me take
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: a look here.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: The money is also fading Atlanta, by the way. Atlanta's
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: around a.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: Minus 200 something favorite here because Molly has been so
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: much better than Singer, but 81% of tickets, 61% of
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: the cash on Atlanta, so the money is fading Atlanta here.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: A lot of it has to do with the price,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: I think, but I'm okay with the idea of fading
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: Atlanta because I don't see anybody in their right mind
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: thinking that means Singer is actually going to pitch well here.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: So I think it might kind of just be a
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 4: fade of, I don't even know what it's a fade of.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's really probably just a pricing thing, like
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: fading Atlanta because they're overpriced in the market. But I
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: don't like the total seven and a half. I understand
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: the odds makers are telling you they think it's going
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: to be a lower scoring game, but When does Singer
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: warrant a lower scoring total like this, man? I don't
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: get it. I don't think Singer's going to pitch well
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 4: at all here. 67% of tickets, 93% of the cash
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: on the over here. Money seems to agree with me,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: so that's what I'm going to do. You could also
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: play Atlanta's team total over. Like, if you want to
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: take Molly, the question mark of Molly, out of the equation,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: because maybe he pitches well here. Atlanta over team total
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: makes sense here, but you're going to need him to
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: score probably six in this game to do that, so
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 4: I'd rather go over the full game total and spread
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 4: it out a little bit more and hope that both
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: teams can get us some runs here. So that's what
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: I'm going to do over in that game.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll take a break.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 4: I'll talk about the remaining three games, then I'll talk
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: about the rest of the sports, WNBA and football.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: College and pro. I'll be right back.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: Inside, I want to kill myself. We were on an
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: 0-7 run over the last two days after tonight. It
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: was just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't even
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: know what to tell you about that. I just don't
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: want to do this anymore. I have never seen anything
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: like this, man.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 4: day at all, 0-4.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: I have not had a good season, man. What can
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: slump do? Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: reached a new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: Bruins hat, man. I don't know what is going on
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: with the Bruins.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: March 8th?
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know what day it is anymore. I don't
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: possibly have. Back with you as I always am. Until
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: I die, at least.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: you about this anymore.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: Next up is Anaheim at Seattle. Seattle's still alive here,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: as crazy as that sounds. And they get to play
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 4: a weak Anaheim team here.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: Seattle... They're not in a good spot here, though.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: They just had a huge win over the Astros yesterday
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: in extra innings.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: It was a crazy game. I actually had it on.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: I was watching the end of that game. It was insane.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: Houston scored, I think it was a 10-inning game. Houston
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: scored in the top of the inning, and then Seattle
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: came back with two runs in the bottom of the
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: inning to dramatically win the game. Coming off of an
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 4: extra inning game like that, a dramatic win against the team,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: one of the teams they're fighting for in the AL West,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 4: I think this looks like a letdown spot for Seattle here, man.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 4: So Seattle needs to maintain their motivation, though, because they
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 4: can still win their division, as ridiculous as that sounds.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: They need to win out, though. They cannot lose a
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: game from here on out. But this is a tough
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: spot coming off that crazy ending against Houston. Anaheim had
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: an ugly game yesterday. That was my only loss on
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 4: the show yesterday. Urania, I don't know what it was, man.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: He didn't have it. I thought it was a good
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: handicap in that game yesterday. Yeah, I don't know.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to tell you. Urania was not good.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: I think he was really bad in the first inning
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: or something.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: I forget. But Anaheim is now coming in from Sacramento
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 4: going up to Seattle here. I mean, Anaheim probably will
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: be motivated. They probably do want to play spoiler. I mean,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: it was kind of ugly to get swept in that
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: two-game series in Sacramento. This will be a much more
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: pitcher-friendly ballpark for Anaheim here. There's a chance Anaheim could
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 4: stick around in this game, man. I mean, it's a Again,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: it's a bad spot for Seattle in what I think
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 4: is kind of a letdown spot here, even though they
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: got a win out. And it's a pitcher-friendly park here,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: and I actually think the pitching might actually be okay
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: on both sides here.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: I don't like Anaheim's bullpen. They used five guys out
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: of the bullpen.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 4: I don't like Seattle's bullpen either, and they used a
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: bunch of guys because it was an extra inning game.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: They used five guys. Seattle has not been a good
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: bullpen this year.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 4: They're number 21, Anaheim 23, so I'd probably be avoiding
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: the bullpens in this one although we do have two
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: bad offenses here too.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: Seattle 29th, Anaheim 30th.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: So these are the bottom two offenses in baseball in
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: a pitcher-friendly park here. Grayson Rodriguez, G-Rod. We have E-Rod
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: and G-Rod today, I think. G-Rod is pitching for Anaheim here.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: He has not been very good, trying to bounce back
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: from missing one or two entire seasons.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: With an injury. He's got a 5.96 ERA.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: 1.54 whip. He hasn't had it this year. However, he's
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: been better on the road. 4.54 road ERA. And he's
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark here. He's been okay over
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: his last two starts. He allowed three or fewer runs
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 4: in each of the last two. Although, yes, Anaheim has
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: lost his last five starts in a row. But he
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: looks like he's pitching a little bit better recently. and
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: he was decent before he had his injury a couple
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: he missed one entire season last year but he was
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 4: like pitching better with Baltimore prior to that so you
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: know he's not like totally dead I would say although
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: he does have a high hit rate which isn't good
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is okay. His strikeout rate is not
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: great either, really, though. 2.2 strikeout walk ratio is not great.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: 8 strikeout per 9 is whatever. However, he might be
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: able to match up here in a pitcher-friendly environment against
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 4: a Seattle team that he actually has kind of dominated historically.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: They have 34 at-bats against him, a 147 average, 540
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: OPS average. 14 strikeouts and six walks.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: That's not good.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: The walks are the only bad number here, though. Everything
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: else looks pretty good. In Seattle, really nobody in this
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: lineup has done damage against them except for Taylor Ward,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 4: who I believe they got at the trade deadline. But
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 4: I think G-Rod might actually pitch well here, and I
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: would guess that Brian Wu is going to pitch well
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: for Seattle here because.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: I think he is their best pitcher.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: He's got a 3.92 ERA, 1.08 whip. It hasn't been
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: his best season, but it's because he's had some road
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 4: struggles this year, which I don't know what's going on
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: with him there, but he's been really good at home, 2.36
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: home ERA. Typically, that's been the case with him. He's
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: been very good at home throughout his entire career. He's
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: coming off a game in Coors Field and the game
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 4: before that in the A's Stadium. So I think this
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: is going to be good for him after pitching in
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: two very hitter-friendly ballparks.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: And by the way, he wasn't even that bad there.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: He was too hittable in the Coors game, but he
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: still limited them to three runs.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: That wasn't that bad. And he held the A's to
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 4: no earned runs in six innings in their ballpark. So
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: coming off of pitching in those ballparks, I think he's
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 4: going to feel pretty good being back home here in
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: a much more pitcher-friendly environment. He's still had good numbers overall, though.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: His command numbers have been good for the entire season.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: He's got a pretty low hit rate. His walk rate's
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: really low. His strikeout rate is around one per inning.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: Those numbers are all good. 4.6 strikeout walk ratio, 9
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: strikeout per 9. Yeah, he's been a little bit less
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: good this year than he has been in years past,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: but he's still really good. Wu against Anaheim, they're not
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 4: a good offense, so you'd expect that he's good against them,
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 4: and yes, he is. 63 at-bats, 20 strikeouts, 3 walks.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 4: That's kind of domination here. They only have one extra
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: base hit off him, which is a double from Josh Lowe.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: They have a 190 average against him. 434 OPS. So
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: I think Wu will pitch well here as well. I
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: think the way to play this game is the first
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: five under, man. But this is another game with a
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 4: really low total. Seven bordering on six and a half here.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: If you're going to take the under in the first five,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 4: you're going to be looking at a three. I mean,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: I guess you could make the argument that you should
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: extend it to the full game here. Take the full
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 4: game under seven. These bullpens concern me quite a bit, though, man.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: It's just maybe.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: These pitchers can last a little bit deep into this game.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, Wu definitely could get you deeper into this
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: game and kind of rescue the bullpens a little bit here.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: I still think first five under is the way to
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: approach this, though. You've got two weak offenses here. Both
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 4: pitchers actually have good matchup numbers here. I think that's
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: the way to look, and it's probably going to be cool,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: I would imagine, in Seattle at this time of year.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: So that will help with the under as well. Cool,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: pitcher-friendly environment here. We have 90% of the tickets on
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: the over and 89% of the cash on the over,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 4: so it is a very public over here. Yeah, I
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 4: think the first five under makes the most sense, although
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: you'd be looking at a three probably. You know I
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 4: don't really love that. There's not a lot of leeway
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 4: there with the under three in the first five. Under
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: seven full game is an option, though. I still wouldn't
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 4: disagree with that. And then Seattle's a minus 200 favorite here.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 4: Coming off that huge win last night, that dramatic win,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 4: staying at home. I don't love the Seattle side here.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 3: I really don't.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: Anaheim first five actually might be a little bit of
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: an option here just to take Anaheim to just hang
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: around with Seattle off of that crazy performance last night.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 4: But again, Seattle cannot lose at this point.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: But.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: the odds makers are asking Seattle to lay a ridiculous
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: price here, right?
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: Like I know Wu is good. He is the better
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: pitcher here.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: Uh, so the matchup should favor Seattle here, uh, given
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: that they do have the pitching matchup edge here, but, um, yeah,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: minus 200 laying a minus one to have run line.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 4: I think is not what you want to do with
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 4: a low total like this in a spot like Seattle's
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 4: in here. Maybe Anaheim first five. There is some argument
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 4: for that. I would avoid their bullpen, but, Uh, taking
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 4: them plus a half run or plus one run, even
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 4: maybe in the first five might be an option. Uh,
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 4: this might be a game where Seattle somehow like squeaks
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 4: by with like a one run win or something.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: Jay Forte, what's up, man? Um, no, well, that question is, um,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: I don't know who, I don't know who's a free
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: agent in your league. Uh, you have to show me
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 4: who your free agents are. Um, Yeah, I mean, I
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: couldn't answer that without knowing that, but you're not guaranteed
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 4: nine points.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 3: Per game with anybody, really. You need a running back
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: that has usage. That's what you want.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 4: Like, you got to find a running back that is
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: used a lot in the game, and it depends on
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: whether your league is PPR or not. If it's PPR,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 4: you want to look at pass-catching running backs.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I don't know.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 4: In a 12-team league, there probably aren't many good running
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 4: backs available. My league has no good running backs available.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 4: I'm in an ultra-competitive 12-team league. Houston at the A's.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 4: This is a similar situation with Houston here. So like
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 4: I said, Houston, kind of like Seattle, both these teams
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: are playing bad teams to finish.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 3: This off here.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: Houston is playing on the road, though, at the A's.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: So first of all, Houston does have to travel. Oh, no, wait,
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: they're only coming from Seattle. Oh, no, no, no.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, Houston's traveling, yeah, because Houston was in
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 4: Seattle last night.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: Yes, correct.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: Right, but Houston is coming off of that extra inning game.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: That was a huge game, man, and Houston losing that game.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: They could be hung over a little bit coming into
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: this game in the A stadium, and they're going from
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 4: a very pitcher-friendly Seattle stadium to a hitter-friendly A stadium,
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 4: so that is going to be a little bit of
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: a jarring shift for Houston here.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: Maybe that's not good.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: As far as the A's, they're staying at home, and
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 4: they did just beat the Angels, so I don't know.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 3: The A's have a little bit of motivation, I guess,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: or a little bit of.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 4: Momentum, I mean, after they ended their losing streak there.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: Maybe the A's want to play spoiler, you know. Oh,
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: we got Houston coming to town. You got a division
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: rival coming to town. Maybe you do want to show
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: up and spoil the party for Houston. I think the
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 4: teams in this division are probably sick of Houston being
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 4: the team that wins this division almost every year, so
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: maybe the A's do want.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 3: To play spoiler here.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 4: Houston's in a tough spot after that crazy Seattle game
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 4: last night. Houston still has the better bullpen, though, even
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 4: though they used five relief pitchers yesterday. The A's used four, so,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: I mean, the A's bullpen's terrible. They're ranked second last,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: but I think they're the worst bullpen.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: They're awful.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: Houston is mediocre, though. They're number 14. They haven't really
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 4: been that good recently.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: Out of the bullpen. So maybe avoid both bullpens in
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: this one. Or play an over perhaps. Houston is the
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: 9th ranked offense.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 4: The A's are 11th tied with the Braves. So these
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 4: are capable offenses here. Peter Lambert is getting the start
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 4: for Houston. He's had a pretty good season.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: 3.7 ERA.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: 1.23 whip.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: He's been good on the road. 3.17 road ERA.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 4: Was good in his last start against the Braves. He's
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 4: been pitching well in his recent starts. 16-1 strikeout walk
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: ratio this month, that's really good. So his command is
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: definitely on point right now, although Houston lost all three
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: of those games. Definitely was not his fault, as he
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: allowed three or fewer earned runs in all of them.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 4: He went at least five and a third innings in
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: all of them. So he's pitching well right now, but
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: the question is, how is he going to pitch in
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: this A's stadium?
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: Because remember, Lambert was on.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 4: Colorado A's, for a lot of his career and he
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: did not pitch well in Colorado. So is he going
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 4: to pitch poorly in another hitter friendly stadium here?
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 4: He has not had to pitch in the A's stadium
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: this year. Uh, he does have a low hit rate
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 4: on the season. His walk rate is his one real
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: concern here. He does walk too many guys and he
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: is kind of a fly ball pitcher. So that might
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 4: be a bit of a concern in this stadium. The
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 4: fly ball rate here is a bit high.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 3: Um, But the walk rate is a concern for him
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: as well.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 4: The strikeout rate is okay. This has definitely been his
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: best season, though, by far. It's been good for him
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 4: to get away from Colorado. He's got a 2.6 strikeout
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 4: walk ratio, which isn't great. 8.8 strikeout per nine is
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: all right. I guess those are all right numbers. Lambert
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 4: against the A's has been kind of mediocre. They only
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: have 17 at-bats against them. Only six of their hitters
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 4: have faced him. One extra base.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 3: Hit in here. Bolt, Bolte, Bolte.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 4: I don't know who the hell that is. Is three
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 4: for three off him with a double. I guess he'll
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 4: be in the lineup, though, whoever the hell he is.
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: The A's have three strikeouts, one walk against Lambert. A
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 4: 294 average, though, so they've hit him for average.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: For power, not really, though.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 4: Like I said, they only have one extra base hit
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: against him, so a 686 OPS. That's pretty low, but
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: I'm not convinced that Lambert is necessarily going to pitch
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 4: well here.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 3: He might.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, his numbers there are not horrible, and he's
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 4: been good over his last few starts, but it's going
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: to be hard to pitch in the A's stadium here, though,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: I would think. The A's have Mason Barnett pitching, even
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: though ESPN doesn't have it listed.
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 3: He is listed on.
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: The betting board here. Barnett will be making the start.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 4: He has not been good. 7.16 ERA, 1.75 whip.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 3: He's been better at home. I don't know how. 6.23
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: home ERA.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: He gives up more home runs at home, though, but
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: somehow his overall numbers are still better at home. Makes
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: no sense, but I don't trust Barnett. I mean, he's
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 4: only gone five innings once this entire season. He was
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: coming out of the bullpen prior to that. His recent
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 4: starts have all been bad. He's allowed three or more
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 4: runs in all of them and failing to go more
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 4: than four and a third.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 3: In all of his recent outings.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 4: The A's have lost every game he's appeared in since
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: late June. That's an insane stat. He's got a high
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: hit rate here. His walk rate's not good. His strikeout
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 4: rate is all right, but everything else is bad here. 1.5
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is terrible.
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: Because he walks way too many guys.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: 8.6 strikeout per nine isn't that bad, but everything else
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 4: is bad here. Barnett against Houston. Believe it or not,
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 4: he's been good against Houston. I laugh because they're one
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 4: for 11 off him. Most of their hitters have faced him,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: and they only have one hit, and it was a
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 4: single by Altuve. Seven strikeouts, two walks, 0-91 average, 322 OPS.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: Do I really think Barnett's going to actually pitch well here?
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: Not really. The money's coming in on the under, although
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 3: this seems like more of an over game to me.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 3: The total's at 10.5.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm sure it's not going to be that
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: warm in Sacramento here, but in Northern California this time
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 4: of year. But 63% of tickets, 81% of.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: The cash on the under.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: Total's at 10.5, so it is below that 11 key
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 4: number there. I think the over makes more sense. I mean,
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 4: Houston's got a burned out bullpen. A's bullpen sucks. I
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 4: don't really think either pitcher is necessarily trustworthy. I think
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: the over makes sense, but I also think playing the
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 4: A's in the first five I think might actually be
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 4: the best way to play this game. 91% of tickets
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: and cash on Houston. Like I said, Houston, everybody knows
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 4: they need to win. They're around minus 160-something. They're fighting
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: to win the division here, but maybe they shouldn't be
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: this much of a favorite on the road, man, with
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 4: Lambert on the mound, even though he's had a decent season.
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 4: His matchup numbers are actually worse than Barnett's, believe it
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: or not, even though Barnett is the worst overall pitcher.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: Maybe Barnett's got a ceiling of some kind there because
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 4: he does have decent strikeout stuff.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 4: Um, but Barnett has good numbers against Houston at the
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 4: very least. So his matchup numbers beat Lambert. So maybe
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: the A's can hang around in the first five, take
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 4: the A's run line in the first five.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 3: Maybe they somehow get it done. I don't know, man.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: And then, uh, MLB network, uh, The late, late game
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: of San Diego and L.A.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: Continuing or completing their series, L.A.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 4: Did just lose a five-game win streak with last night's game.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 4: Yamamoto lost the game, man. Kind of surprised by that.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 4: Was he actually bad in the game, though?
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Let me see. No, not really.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 4: Two of the runs were unearned, and then the bullpen
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 4: gave up a run, too. Yamamoto wasn't even really bad.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: He actually outpitched Ray, and he still lost the game.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 4: Ray got really lucky in that game, and he gave
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 4: up a lot of hits and somehow escaped. So that
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 4: game was a little bit of a misleading result there. Uh,
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 4: but I looked at this game. My first reaction was,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 4: this is going to be an under with two good
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: pitchers here today between San Diego and LA, uh, San
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 4: Diego's probably going to be more motivated because they're trying to,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: at this.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: Point, they're trying to lock up the number one wild card.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 4: Uh, who would have thought that San Diego would make
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 4: this run and be in the top wild card spot.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: Now they might get it, man. Uh, that would be crazy.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: And then they have to, they force one of those
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 4: other teams to have to come out West. That would
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 4: be interesting. Uh, But they've got to try to beat
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: LA here. So San Diego, I think, will have more
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 4: motivation here. Do they have the pitching matchup edge here?
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: That I'm not so sure. Dodgers, I mean, the Dodgers
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 4: still have a little bit to play for because they're
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 4: trying to be the number one seed. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: I guess that's a similar motivation, being the number one
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: wild card. It's a little bit of motivation for both
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 4: teams here. It is a huge divisional series, though, so
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 4: both teams will be motivated for that reason. The Dodgers
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 4: might want to bounce back after yesterday, and it was
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 4: a misleading result, as I just said. The Dodgers used
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 4: three relief pitchers in that game. San Diego does have
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen, but San Diego did use everybody yesterday
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 4: because Ray didn't last that long, and all the better
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: relievers came into the game pretty much for San Diego.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: They used five relief pitchers, so even though San Diego's
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen, that does balance out the bullpens a
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 4: little bit. They're number seven. The Dodgers are number nine,
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 4: although normally San Diego is... Better than the Dodgers by
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 4: more than what that would suggest. But again, yesterday, San
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 4: Diego did use a lot of their relief pitchers.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 3: They're good ones.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are the number two offense. San Diego's number 17
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 4: right now. So San Diego has moved up in the
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 4: second half offensively, but the Dodgers are still an elite offense.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 4: Nick Pavetta is getting a start for San Diego, though.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 4: He just came back a couple starts ago. He's been
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: pretty good. He's got a 3.3 ERA this year.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: One whip. He's not as good on the road, though.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: He's got a four road area this year.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 4: But since he's come back, he's made three starts since
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 4: coming back. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: all of them. San Diego's won all three starts. He's
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 4: got an 11-to-1 strikeout walk ratio over that span of
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 4: 14 innings.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: That's pretty good.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 4: He hasn't gone that deep into these outings yet, so
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 4: they're kind of ramping him up here because they don't
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: want to overwork him as he's coming.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: Back from injury. But he's pitched pretty well.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 4: At some point, he's going to be like fully starting
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 4: again and maybe it'll start tonight um he's got a
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 4: pretty low hit rate on the season it's a very
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: limited sample though but he's got a low walk rate
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 4: too and a high strikeout rate so he's had a
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 4: good season in the short amount of time that he
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: has pitched five strikeout walk ratio in that small sample
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 4: but that's probably going to go down looking at what
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: he's done throughout his career but still uh he's good
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 4: though anyway a 10.5 strikeout per nine on the season
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 4: that's probably going to go down a.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: He's still a good pitcher. His numbers against the Dodgers, though,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 3: are kind of mediocre.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: They have 162 at-bats against him, so they're very familiar
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: with him. And Freddie Freeman, in particular, does a lot
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: of damage against him in a big sample size. So
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 4: if you want to player prop something here, you could
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 4: go Freeman, hits plus runs plus RBIs over.
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: Those are my prop recommendations.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 4: I'm not really a prop guy, but I usually try
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 4: to find a big sample where one hitter just destroys
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 4: some pitcher and isolate that. Um, we have a two
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 4: 65 average overall. The Pavetta is allowed to the Dodgers
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 4: seven 86 OPS 40 to 17 strikeout walk ratio. That
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 4: is not a good ratio. Uh, so the Dodgers have
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: had a little bit of the upper hand against Pavetta.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 4: It's not too bad for him, but the Dodgers do
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 4: beat him to some extent. Uh, Tyler Glasnow is pitching
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 4: for the Dodgers here.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: 3.5, 60, 3.4, 60.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: All right. Excuse me. 0.96 whip.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 4: He's missed most of the season with an injury because
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: that's what the Dodgers do, trying to keep these slightly
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: older pitchers ready to go for the playoffs. He hasn't
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 4: been as good at home for whatever reason, 4.25 home ERA,
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 4: but that's a little bit misleading because it's a small
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 4: sample size, and his opponent batting average at home is
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 4: still 200, which is really low. He pitched well in
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 4: his last outing against San Francisco, although he kind of
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 4: struggled a little bit in the two starts before that.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: He had some command issues there, but he looks to
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: be returning to form. He smoked San Francisco in his
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 4: last start. His strikeout rate has been really good over
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: all three of those starts, so he's still striking out
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: a lot of guys. He's got a low hit rate
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 4: on the season. His walk rate is a little bit questionable.
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is really high, though, so his strikeout
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: walk ratio is still really good at 3.8, even though he's.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 3: Been a little bit wild.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 4: He's got an 11.6 strikeout per nine. That's really high.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: Against San Diego, he's been really good in the past.
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 3: 101 at-bats.
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 4: We have a huge sample here, and they have not
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 4: done well against him. 42-10 strikeout walk ratio. 139 average allowed.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 4: 474 OPS allowed. There's really nobody in this lineup that's
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: been able to figure him out. So, to me, it
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 4: looks like the Dodgers probably are going to win this game.
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 4: We have 77% of tickets, 88% of cash on the Dodgers.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 4: They're around minus 170.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: Um.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the Dodgers probably find a way to win.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: You could make a minus one run line on it,
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 4: I guess, and then at least if they win by one,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: you won't lose your bet. Maybe that is one way
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 4: to play this. The total's pretty low, seven and a half, eight.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: I still think the under is my lean on the
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: total here, although we have 67% of tickets, 90% of
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. But to me, it still
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 4: looks like you're mostly getting pretty good pitching throughout this game.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 4: So the under, I think, still makes more sense to
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 4: me than the over does. But it's not a game
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 4: I'm really interested in. If Pavetta had better matchup numbers,
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 4: I think maybe I'd be sold on the under, but
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 4: not going to do it.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 3: All right, so let's move to.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 4: WNBA next, I guess, even though it's the last day
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 4: of the WNBA season, man. NBA TV has this hideous
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 4: matchup first up, Toronto and Connecticut.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 3: They're both done. They're not making the playoffs. These are
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 3: both bad teams. It's Toronto's last game of their inaugural
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 3: season here. Maybe both teams will.
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 4: Show up because Toronto's lost whatever this is, seven, eight
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 4: games in a row, whatever the hell. They're coming off
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 4: another ugly loss on the road in Chicago, but now
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: they're having to travel over to Connecticut.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 3: For this.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: Connecticut, it'll be their last game. It'll be at home
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 4: for them, though. Connecticut covered for us in their last
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 4: game against Washington. They weren't really in that game, so
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 4: I'm not really going to say it's going to be
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: a flat spot for them here because I don't think
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 4: it really will be.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 3: They played all right.
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 4: Against the Lynx and the Mystics in the last couple games.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 4: They were able to at least cover in those games
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 4: and again they were never threatening to actually win the
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 4: game so i don't think it's really going to be
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 4: a hangover spot for them they've lost six games in
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: a row as well but connecticut they're a little bit
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: more battle tested right now because since they came out
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 4: of the all-star the uh excuse me the world cup
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: break they played three pretty good teams three playoff teams
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 4: atlanta minnesota who's the best team in the league and
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: then washington i think i would leave connecticut here And
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 4: people are going to look at this and think, why
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 4: is Connecticut a favorite here? Although they actually dropped from
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 4: three and a half to two or one and a
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: half here. The money's actually coming in on Toronto. It's 50,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: 50 on the ticket, 68% of the cash on Toronto.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 4: So the money seems to actually be back in Toronto,
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: but I don't think I really agree. I think I
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 4: would slightly leave Connecticut here. Um, I don't know, I
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 4: think that final game at home gives you a little
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 4: bit of a boost, and I don't really know why
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 4: the line has moved a little bit like this. Maybe
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 4: there's an injury, or maybe it was just the money
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 4: actually coming in on Toronto. I don't know. There are
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 4: a lot of injuries here, I don't know, on both sides.
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 4: I don't know how many of them are recent, so
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: I don't know. It's a little bit hard to gauge.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 4: Griner is still out, I guess. So I guess Griner
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 4: probably hasn't even been playing recently, I don't know, for Connecticut.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: I mean, to me, Connecticut's got one of the worst
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: records in the league. They're even worse than Toronto record-wise.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: So to me, I would think the public would not
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 4: really want to lay Connecticut as a favorite here, although
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: it's basically a pick the winner at this point, though,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 4: so I don't know.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 3: The money's coming to Toronto, but I don't know.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 4: I kind of slightly disagree with that, given that Connecticut's
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 4: a little bit more battle-tested recently, and they were not
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 4: that close to winning either of those games.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 4: It's a low total in that one, by the way,
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 4: at 166.5 or whatever. But that's because both teams are
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 4: just not really good at scoring.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 3: Chicago at Washington. Washington will be in the playoffs.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 4: The question is, how much motivation do they have here
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 4: to try to advance their playoff standing? I think Washington is...
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 4: trying to avoid being the last team to get in
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 4: because they want to avoid Minnesota. So I think that's
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 4: what their motivation is here, if I'm not mistaken. Washington
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 4: just beat Connecticut in their last game. It didn't cover.
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 4: They're playing Chicago to be at home. It's their final
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 4: game here. Chicago did just win to end a long
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 4: losing streak. Chicago had lost five games in a row.
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 4: A lot of them do good teams, though, and then
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: they finally beat Toronto. But I think that'll give Chicago
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: some momentum coming into this one. They ended a long
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 4: losing streak. A lot of times when you do that,
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 4: you'll have positive momentum coming into the next game. And
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 4: they'll probably want to show up because this is Chicago's
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 4: last game of the season, man. Whereas Washington might be
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: looking ahead to the playoffs now.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 3: Playoffs.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 4: So I think Chicago might be the right side here
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: to look at. Not a strong opinion at all for me,
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 4: but we have 50% of tickets, 56% of the cash,
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 4: it looks like, on Chicago.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 3: Or maybe it's 70% of the tickets on Washington. I
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: don't know. This board is fucked up. I don't know
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: how to read this.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 4: But what we do know is that Washington's a 12,
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 4: 13-point favorite here with a pretty.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 3: Low total in the 160s. And you know what I
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 3: say about that.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 4: I like underdogs with low totals because the points are
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 4: worth more and it's easier for the underdog to hang
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 4: within that number if it's a lower scoring game. Washington
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 4: is not that good as a big favorite because they're
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 4: more of a defensive team. And the spot I think
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 4: favors Chicago because they could go all out. They could
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 4: pull out all the stops and do whatever they want
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: because it's their last game.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 4: So they might play a little bit loose and do
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: some kind of crazy things and maybe it'll work out.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 3: Whereas Washington.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 4: Probably just kind of wants to get in, get out,
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 4: and not get people hurt and focus on the playoffs.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: So I would lean Chicago there. Indiana at Minnesota on USA. Now, Indiana,
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 4: you'll notice they're favored on the road, even though obviously.
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's the better team.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 4: And if Minnesota was playing their play, you know that
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 4: this means Minnesota's not playing their starters. Because if they were,
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 4: then Minnesota would probably be like a six point favorite
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 4: in this game. And the reason they're not is because, well,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 4: miles is hurt, but I think it might be precautionary.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 4: So she's not going to play for Minnesota here. But
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 4: to me, this line is indicating Minnesota is going to
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: rest like all.
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 3: Their starters here. So that's what you have to try
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 3: to figure out. What is Minnesota going to look like
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 3: with their backups? And it could go one of two ways, right?
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: Like that line could be an overreaction to Minnesota resting
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 4: all their starters.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 3: Like maybe Indiana should not be this heavy.
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 4: Of a favorite on the road here. Um, And maybe
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 4: the backups will play motivated, you know what I mean?
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 4: Because they want to show up and you're still playing
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 4: for contracts and stuff like that. And you get a
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 4: chance to play more minutes. Maybe you're excited about that.
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 4: So yeah, maybe the line's a little bit of an overreaction. However,
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 4: the fact that Minnesota's wrestling all their players, obviously that
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 4: means they're not taking this game seriously. They're already the
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 4: number one seed in the playoffs. They've already wrapped that up.
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 4: So Minnesota has no reason to try to win this game.
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 3: So that's the thing.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 4: They might just be throwing the game, whereas Indiana, I think,
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 4: is still jockeying for playoff positioning, so they still have
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 4: motivation in this game, and they will be playing their starters,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 4: it appears here. Would I want to lay the points, though,
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 4: with Indiana now that they're up to 3.5 after they
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 4: open 1.5?
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 3: No, I wouldn't.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 4: They have 87% of tickets, 89% of the cash on them.
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 4: I don't think the public is playing Indiana.
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 3: The public.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 4: They just look at records and stuff, man. Like, the public,
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 4: they always do bad in, like, the last week of
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 4: the NFL season because they'll see these lines that look
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 4: like they're way off and think they're being smart. Like, oh, yeah,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 4: I'm going to, you know, take the other side of
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 4: this number here because the number looks, like, way off.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 3: It looks really weird.
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 4: And they're not taking into account, like, how much it
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: does matter that this team just doesn't give a shit
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 4: about this game. Even though it might be an overreaction
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 4: in the number and the, you know, An overreaction to
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 4: that team playing all backups. So the thing is, if
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 4: that team's not motivated enough, and that's what they're kind
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 4: of telling you, they're not going to really try to
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 4: win this game. That's usually not a good thing. So
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 4: maybe Indiana is the right side here. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 4: laying that many points on the road, though, with A
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 4: team like that where the line looks like it could
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: be a bit of an overreaction, I don't really want
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 4: to do it. Although I guess slightly I would lean
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 4: Indiana there, but I don't want to do it, man.
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: Golden State at LA. This will be LA's final game
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 4: here of the season. Golden State will be in the playoffs.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 4: They're going to be either the number two or number
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 4: three seed, excuse me. I don't know if Golden State
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 4: can lose their positioning or not behind Vegas who's won
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 4: a bunch of games in a row here and caught
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: up to them.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 4: I think Vegas is probably better than Golden State, but
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 4: They might wind up in the three spot here. Speaking
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 4: of Vegas, LA just lost in Vegas by 10. They
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 4: played all right in that game, but now they're back home.
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 4: It was only a single game road trip to Vegas.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 4: Not really a big deal. Final home game here for LA.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 4: I think they'll show up again. It's similar to what
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 4: I said with Chicago, that team playing their final game.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 4: They might show up with some motivation, whereas a team
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 4: like Golden State, they might be starting to look ahead
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: to the playoffs.
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 4: So Golden State might not care as much about this game,
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 4: even though They could potentially be jockeying for position here,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 4: but I don't know if they care that much whether
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 4: they get the two seed or the three seed. Either way,
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 4: they're going to host a series, and it's going to
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 4: be against one of the lesser teams. I forget who
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 4: their opponents might be. I don't know if they have
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 4: a preference between Dallas, Washington, whoever else is in that.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 3: I think New York is in that mix too. I
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: don't know, whatever.
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 4: Golden State just lost to Portland, though. So that's interesting
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 4: because that could go one of two ways. So they
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 4: lost a six game win streak. And I talk about
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 4: that a lot of times when a team loses a
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: win streak, they'll be hung over in the next game
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 4: because it's like all that momentum comes to a screeching halt.
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 4: They do have to go down to LA from Portland here,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 4: but you could make the argument Golden State will bounce
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: back because that was an ugly loss to Portland.
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? But it was Portland's final
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 3: home game. And that's what we're looking at with LA
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 3: here too.
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 4: And I talked about how I thought Portland would get
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 4: up for that game, for that final game at home
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: in their inaugural season. Maybe LA will get up as
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 4: well at home for their final game. Golden State might
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 4: be looking ahead. I don't want to lay the points
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: with Golden State. They're up to an 11.5 point favorite
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 4: here from 7.5. There were always injuries on the LA side.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 4: We pretty much know that LA's injury plagued, but Golden
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 4: State has 80% of the tickets on them, 82% of
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 4: the cash on LA. You're getting a double-digit underdog with
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 4: a really low total in the 150s here that's actually
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 4: gone down as well. So I think the move is
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: to play the home underdog in this one probably. Again,
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 4: getting that many points with a low total like that.
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 4: The money also agreeing with it. That's probably the way
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: to look there. Maybe Golden State does look ahead to
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: the playoffs, but... I don't have much on that game.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 4: It's not a TV game. The last game is a
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 4: TV game, USA Network, CNBC, and that's Vegas at Phoenix. Vegas,
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know if Vegas cares that much
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 4: because Phoenix did embarrass them in their first game of
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: the season at home, which was a play I gave
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 4: out on the show because it was a rematch of
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 4: the finals last year. It was Vegas' ring ceremony, so
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 4: I thought Vegas was just going to be All up
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 4: in their heads in that game. And Phoenix would be
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 4: highly motivated. And Phoenix blew them out. But then Vegas
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 4: was able to return the favor later in the season.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 4: So I don't know if Vegas cares about that at
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 4: this point here. I think Vegas might be looking ahead
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 4: to the playoffs now.
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 3: Similar to Golden State.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, do these teams care that much about whether
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 4: they're the two seed or the three seed? The only
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 4: reason you would care is that you get to host
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 4: your opponent in the second round. So that's the big
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 4: reason why you would care is that Golden State, Vegas...
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 4: they might wind up facing off against each other in
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 4: the second round, right? Cause they're the number two and
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 4: the number three. Cause I don't think it, I don't
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: think it recedes in the WNBA, although I could be wrong.
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong about that. Um, I don't think so though. So,
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 4: you know, that might be the motivation there for both
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 4: of those teams, but I don't know. I'm leaning towards
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: both home underdogs here though. Phoenix, again, it's their final
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 4: game of the season at home. Yes, they have some
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 4: injuries as well. Plum, who they got from LA, I
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 4: believe is, uh, not going to be playing, uh, Vegas,
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 4: how seriously do they take this game with the playoffs upcoming?
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 4: Vegas just kind of had a sleepwalk game against LA
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 4: where they won but didn't cover. Phoenix is coming off
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 4: a big game, though, against Dallas, I think. Yeah, Phoenix
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 4: just beat Dallas. They just had two pretty tough games
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 4: against Dallas. So Phoenix, I don't know, maintaining that effort
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 4: again in another game might be a little bit difficult
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 4: for them to do. After kind of a big game there,
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 4: so I don't know. I don't love it, but I'd
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 4: probably still slightly lean Phoenix here. 89% of tickets, 94%
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Vegas. You're getting 10 points with Phoenix.
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 4: This is not a particularly low total, though.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 3: It's in the 170s, so I don't know. Those are
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 3: my thoughts on that game.
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: Vegas looks like they're public, even if it looks like
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 4: maybe some of the money's coming in on them.
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure that it really is. All right, that's that.
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 3: We have one college.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 4: Football game here, which is Liberty at Coastal Carolina on ESPN. Now,
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 4: with these ESPN games that are really isolated like this,
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 4: the only college football game of the night, the home
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 4: team does tend to get up for games like that.
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 4: So Coastal on their teal color turf here or whatever
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 4: you want to call it, I believe that's what they
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 4: play on. They might get up for this game a
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 4: little bit, you know, because it's a home game. They
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 4: don't get too many of these games. Totally isolated. The
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 4: only college football game of the night at home. Liberty
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 4: considered to be a pretty good team. So Coastal, motivation-wise,
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 4: they might get up for this. And there are other
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 4: positives for Coastal here. This is a, this is, I
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 4: thought this was a, it's not a conference game, I guess.
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 4: I thought it was, but I guess it's not. um, Liberty,
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 4: where the hell is Liberty? They're in conference USA, I guess.
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: Coastal's in the sunbelt and I forget where the hell
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 4: all these teams are. But anyway, coastal, the other good
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 4: thing for coastal though, is they've actually have not looked
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 4: bad so far this season. They played pretty competitively against
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 4: West Virginia, West Virginia team who just beat Virginia. So
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 4: that was not a bad performance at all from coastal there.
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 4: Then they smashed Fordham, which is whatever that's an FCS team. Um,
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 4: But then last week, unfortunately, this was in my pick
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 4: seven last week, Coastal. I liked them in this game,
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 4: and they should have covered, man. They lost by eight,
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 4: but if you look at this game, Coastal was winning
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 4: the game almost at halftime.
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 3: They gave up a.
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 4: Touchdown and two-point conversion going into halftime, and then there
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 4: were no more points scored until the final quarter where
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: Coastal was still within one point, and then they gave
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 4: up one more touchdown. They wound up not covering.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 3: Because of that.
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 4: And if you look at the game statistics, the game
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 4: was really close statistically. Almost the same yardage, just Coastal
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 4: had two turnovers, and that might have done them in.
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 4: I think I should have won that game in that
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 4: pick seven entry. Man, I had Coastal plus five and
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 4: a half or whatever it was in that entry. That
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 4: was one of the stronger leans I had of the
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 4: week on my show. Kind of pissed about that one.
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 4: But it was a little bit of a misleading result
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 4: there for Coastal. They played better in that game against
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 4: Delaware than it looks. However, Liberty is the better team here.
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 4: which is why they are favored on the road. Now, Liberty,
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 4: they didn't look good, though, in their first two games.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 4: We lost by half a point with the game against
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 4: James Madison, though. We tried to back Liberty in that game,
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: and Liberty lost, but they lost for us, although they
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 4: almost came back and covered.
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 3: They missed by half a point for us.
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 4: They had a really bad game coming off that game,
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 4: but maybe they were in a hangover spot because, you know, Liberty,
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 4: James Madison, you know that's a big game between two
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 4: Virginia schools. They're rivals, I think. I think they're both
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 4: sort of on the Western part of the state too.
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 4: So I think that was a big game for them.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 4: So they were hung over, but they had a bad
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 4: performance against FCS Gardner Webb. The next game out where
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 4: Liberty only won this game is 28 and a half
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 4: point favorites. They only won by one and they almost
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 4: lost the game. They had to score a touchdown late
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: in the game to win. So that was a bad
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 4: game for Liberty, but Liberty bounced back in a big
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 4: way and they absolutely destroyed ball state last game.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 3: So, I was kind of high on Liberty to start
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 3: this season.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 4: I thought they would be the team to win Conference
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 4: USA this year after they kind of underperformed last year.
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: I don't know. We'll see.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's a decent sign that Liberty looks like
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 4: they're kind of coming back into form by crushing Ball State.
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 3: But I don't know, man.
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 4: Going out on the road here now. They did play
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 4: one road game already in James Madison, but this will
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 4: be their first out of state road game. This, this
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 4: is their first time leaving the state of Virginia, although
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 4: it's only going to South Carolina, which is not really
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 4: that big of a deal, but still, um, I don't know, man,
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 4: the money's all coming in on Liberty. And I think
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 4: I kind of disagree with it. 59% of tickets, 92%
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Liberty. They're around two and a
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 4: half point favorite, but I think because coastal is, you know, coastal,
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 4: I think it's better than they look like that. They're
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 4: more battle tested because they played West Virginia, uh, Yeah,
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: that game against Liberty against Gardner-Webb is still a little
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 4: bit damning. Coastal, having played West Virginia, they've played the
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 4: only big conference team either of these teams have played
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 4: so far. And Coastal was better in that game last
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 4: week than they looked. It'll be a big ESPN game
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 4: for them at home, man. And a lot of times
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 4: you do want to look towards the home teams in
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 4: games like this. As a home dog, I don't know.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 4: Although I did listen to Steve Merrill on Wager Talk
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 4: talk about this game in his video. I would recommend
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 4: watching his stuff. I mean, he's pretty good, man. He
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 4: did point out that there are some trends against the home,
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 4: the small home underdogs in games like this when they
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 4: come off a game where they were better than they looked.
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 4: For some reason, they tend to not do well in
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 4: these quick turnaround time games. But the quick turnaround time
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 4: you would think would favor the home team, though.
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 3: It's weird.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 4: If these teams both played on Saturday, which I think
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 4: they did, you'd think the quick turnaround time would favor
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 4: the home team because they have less preparation to have
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 4: to do.
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 4: Like, Liberty has to do this travel here, Coastal does not, so,
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 4: you know, I believe that's the case, I believe these
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 4: teams played on Thursday, let me say, or, excuse me,
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 4: played on Saturday, excuse me, now they're having to play
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: on Thursday, yeah, both teams definitely played on Saturday, so
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 4: quick turnaround time a lot of times does favor the
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 4: home team, so, and I'm about to talk about that
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 4: again with the ESPN game, but yeah, I think, yeah, maybe, um,
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 4: I think Coastal would be my slight lean in that game.
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 4: I definitely don't love it, though. That's not going to
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 4: be close to a play for me. It's not going
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 4: to be one of my pick seven entries or anything
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 4: like that. The total looks like there's some money coming
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 4: in in the under, but the total initially dropped through
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 4: the key number of 51, and it's down below 51 now.
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 4: But it looks like some money's buying back on the
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 4: over here.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. I don't have a great feel
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 3: for that, although I think.
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 4: Maybe these offenses are better than what we think they are,
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 4: what we've seen so far.
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 3: Maybe. I don't know, man. It's a tough game to
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 3: figure out.
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 4: And then we have the NFL game, which is really
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 4: tough to figure out, too, even though I am Mr.
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 4: Thursday night. I'm only one and one in my Thursday
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 4: night lean so far. And one of them was the
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 4: Australia game and not the prime game. Although I was
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: right about the Wednesday night game between New England and Seattle.
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 4: So I was right about those two covers that week.
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 4: Not right about Detroit last week. This game, this all,
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 4: I mean, a lot of this game depends on what
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 4: number you got. Cause this number has moved all over
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 4: the place. Green Bay opened a seven point favorite and
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 4: the money immediately came in against them. Like the money
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 4: knocked it down to about six, six and a half,
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 4: but the line has also moved further than that. And
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 4: that's because Michael Pennix is returning for Atlanta and So
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 4: that's why there's been such a move down to 4.5.
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 4: Now the question you have to ask yourself is, is
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 4: that an overreaction? Green Bay is the better team. This
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 4: is at Green Bay here. Atlanta's looked really bad, but
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 4: I'll talk about that in a minute. Green Bay, now
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 4: that they're a 4.5 point favorite, it's because Penix is
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: coming back. Now Atlanta's looked really bad, but the odds
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 4: makers are considering Penix to be an upgrade here over
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 4: Cooper Rush. It was not good, although I still think
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 4: Jack Strand... Should be the guy for Atlanta, man. I
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 4: think he should start. I know he threw a pick
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 4: six last week when he came in, but I think
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 4: he's good, to be honest.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 3: I like Strand.
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 4: I'm not sold on Penix. I don't think two was good.
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 4: We'll see what Penix can do here, man, but I'm
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 4: not sold on him. Maybe it is an overreaction here.
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 4: So there are some negatives here for Atlanta. It'll be
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 4: Penix's first game of the season. So sometimes that's not good.
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 4: Like when you get your, it's the reverse injured player spot,
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 4: kind of, you know what I mean? Where when you
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 4: have your, starting quarterback coming back. A lot of times
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 4: the line overreacts to that, and you have to worry
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 4: about the chemistry early on and him getting back in
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 4: rhythm and stuff. So I don't like that for Atlanta here. However,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 4: the public is on Green Bay here, 70% of tickets,
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 4: 69% of the cash on them. Atlanta's looked really bad.
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 4: There's no question about that. Nobody's going to want Atlanta here.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 4: And some positives for Atlanta are that they're not as
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 4: bad as they looked in their last game. They got
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 4: destroyed by the Panthers. But I mean, the turnovers are
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 4: just ridiculous. They were minus five in turnovers in this game.
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 3: And what do you expect? So it was a misleading final. Like,
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 3: did they get outplayed in the game? Yeah.
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 4: You know, Carolina outgained them, but it was only by
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 4: less than 60 yards. So the game should have been
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 4: a lot closer than it was. The turnovers just destroyed Atlanta.
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 4: Atlanta actually won the possession battle. So this game was
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 4: actually a lot closer statistically than it looked. So it
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 4: was a misleading result. And a big outlier like that,
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 4: a lot of times you do want to look towards
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 4: that team in the next game. So that would be
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 4: an indicator towards looking for, looking towards it. That would
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 4: be an indicator that, Towards Atlanta here, let's say, I
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 4: can't talk right now, whatever. Now, for Green Bay, though,
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 4: I think there are positives for Green Bay, too, though,
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 4: because they outgained the Vikings by, like, 200 yards in
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 4: that first game against the Vikings.
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 3: That game was completely misleading.
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 4: Green Bay outplayed them, like, by a lot statistically in
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 4: that game. There's no way they should have lost, and
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 4: there's definitely no way they should have lost by 17
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 4: in that one.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 3: So that was misleading.
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 4: Then Green Bay, you know, I thought they would bounce
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 4: back after that, but they got caught against the Jets.
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, the Jets are not really that bad. I
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 4: don't think people still think the Jets are this ass team,
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 4: but I actually think they're like more of a mid
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 4: team this year, really. Jets were competitive in that game
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 4: against Green Bay. It was the second straight road game
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 4: for Green Bay, which I guess wasn't that easy. And
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 4: they were still coming off a big divisional game. And, yeah,
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 4: Green Bay almost got caught, and they were able to
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 4: escape with the win. I think the Jets had some
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 4: really dumb clock management in that game, if I remember correctly.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 4: Aaron Glenn, I don't know if that guy knows what
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 4: he's doing, man. I think the Jets, like, I don't know,
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 4: there was some really weird, like, non timeout usage. I
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 4: think at the end of that game where they let
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 4: the clock run down when they should have used timeouts
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 4: to stop, I think they could have stopped the clock
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 4: to get the ball back or something. If I remember correctly,
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 4: I don't know. They did something stupid at the end
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 4: of that game. And then they actually gave green Bay
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 4: a hail Mary shot at the end of the, at
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 4: the end of regulation that shouldn't have happened. But because
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 4: green Bay is in Michigan and it wasn't Aaron Rogers,
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 4: who was the hail Mary King, if you remember, um,
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 4: Green Bay did not win on the Hail Mary, and
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 4: they wound up winning in overtime, though. But Green Bay
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 4: is coming off an escape against the Jets. So I
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 4: think Green Bay is better than they've looked so far.
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 4: That is what I will say. So I don't think
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 4: it's a negative spot for Green Bay either. And as
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 4: I was pointing out, the home team in an unfamiliar
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 4: matchup here like this, the home team usually has the
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 4: advantage on the short week. Even though Green Bay is
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 4: having to travel back home, Atlanta is having to travel
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 4: in as well. And usually the short turnaround usually does
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 4: help the home team. So that would help Green Bay
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 4: a little bit here. What the hell do we do
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 4: with this? There are so many conflicting factors in this game, man.
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 4: I hate this game. This game is not going to
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 4: be a play for me, quite obviously. It is not
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 4: going to be in my pick five entry or anything
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 4: like that. I don't have a good read on this game.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: I mean, if you want to fade the public here
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 4: and you want to take the team that looked even
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 4: worse last week, that would mean you should take the
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 4: points with Atlanta.
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I'm not sold on Pennix. Green Bay,
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 3: you know.
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 4: I mean, without Jacobs there, Green Bay's rushing attack might
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 4: still be a little bit lacking here with Marshawn Lloyd,
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 4: not Lynch, Lloyd, not beast mode. I think he's a
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 4: little bit, I don't know, I think he's a rookie,
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 4: so he's kind of working his way in here. Although
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 4: usually running backs are pretty plug and play in the NFL,
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 4: so I don't know if we're overrating that a bit,
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 4: but it is a downgrade from a very good running
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 4: back like Jacobs, and I want Jacobs to come back
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 4: because I have him in fantasy, but.
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think the.
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 4: Under might be in consideration here.
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 3: The money has come in that way, though.
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 4: And the line has already dropped down from like 44.5
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 4: to 43-ish.
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 3: But I think the under makes sense here.
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 4: You know, Atlanta, it might take Penix a while to
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 4: get back up to speed here. Green Bay, I mean,
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 4: I don't think their offense is really that prolific here
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 4: right now. So the under kind of does make sense here.
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 4: Although a lot of times overs make more sense in
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 4: these quick turnaround times because the defenses are less familiar
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 4: with these offenses here.
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 3: In a quick turnaround time, it's.
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 4: A non-divisional game. I mean, when it's teams that don't
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 4: know each other that well, you know what I mean?
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 4: Like sometimes that will lend itself more towards more scoring
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 4: because the defenses don't know what the offenses are really
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 4: going to do. But in this game, I don't really
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 4: think so. I mean, I just think Atlanta is going
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 4: to be slow to start offensively.
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 3: And I don't know.
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 4: Green Bay, I mean, their offense is better than it
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 4: looks so far. I guess it was better than it
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 4: looked in that Viking game. And you saw what the
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 4: Vikings did to the Bears last week, but still. So
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 4: that Viking defense is pretty good. But yeah, I don't know, man.
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 4: I don't know what else to say about this. Atlanta's
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 4: going to want to shorten the game, though. The way
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 4: that Atlanta's going to hang around in this game is
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 4: by running B. John Robinson. He is their best asset.
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 4: He's their best offensive player. Now, I know Drake London
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 4: actually has put up good stats with Pennix, so there
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 4: is that. Pennix and London do have good rapport, so
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 4: there is that. So maybe that will help Atlanta. So,
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 4: you know, given all that, yeah, I guess I will
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 4: slightly lean Atlanta here. That'll be my lean on the
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 4: side in this one, I guess. I got to pick
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 4: them in pick-ems, but I think in ESPNs it locked
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 4: on Tuesday, so I think we're going to get like six.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 3: And a half probably in pick-ems.
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 4: So I'll probably just take Atlanta, you know, because we're
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 4: getting the better number there too. But six and a half,
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 4: four and a half is not a huge difference though.
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 4: There's no key number in between those two really. That's
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 4: all I got, but yeah, I still think the under
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 4: maybe is worth a lean there, even though Green Bay
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 4: did put up a lot of offense against that Minnesota defense,
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 4: but they also did not look that good offensively against
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 4: the Jets. I think the Jets are a decent defense, though,
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 4: to be honest. Again, I think the Jets are a
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 4: better team than people think. With a quarterback that's not
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 4: complete ass there, even though I'm not really a Geno fan,
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 4: he's at least capable. And they got Brees Hall, good
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 4: running back. And they got Garrett Wilson, who's like an
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 4: elite wide receiver. I think they have one other really
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 4: good wide receiver there. I forget who else they have.
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 4: But yeah, that Jets team, I don't think they're as
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 4: bad as people think. I think they're going to be
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 4: like a six or seven win team, to be honest.
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 3: All right. That's it, man. I only have one play
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 3: on the day, and it is the.
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 4: Over 7.5 in Reds Braves. I know it's over a
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 4: lower total, but the pitching matchup looks like it supports this.
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 4: So I think the money, the market read looks like
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 4: it does support it as well. So that's what I'm doing.
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 4: Learn to tote on Twitter. Learn to tote on Instagram. Like,
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the show here, and you'll get me when
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 4: I go live for all these football night shows that
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 4: are coming up. I'll do an NHL preview soon. I
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 4: guess that starts on Tuesday, so I've got to figure
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 4: out when I want.
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 3: To do that.
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 4: Um, you know, either tonight maybe, or Monday, I don't,
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 4: I don't know when I want to do it, man.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 4: I got to figure it out, but it's not, I'm
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 4: not going to have much to say other than looking
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 4: at the odds, you know, and it's going to be
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 4: just a whole bunch of guessing on my part. So
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 4: don't listen to me as far as the NHL preview
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 4: is concerned. And then we will have to have an
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 4: MLB playoff preview. And, uh, Clint's team is going to
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 4: be in the playoffs, the Padres. And so was my team. Um,
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 4: the uh well I guess I don't want to jinx
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 4: it I don't think it's guaranteed maybe I think the
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 4: Padres have clinched actually now uh clinched a a playoff
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 4: spot at the very least because I think they're one
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 4: game ahead of those other wild card teams so I
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 4: don't think Arizona can catch them now I'm not entirely
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 4: sure though but whatever I don't want to jinx it
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 4: but it looks likely that both of our teams will
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 4: be in my team is of course the Red Sox
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 4: but I may have Clint back on for bald uh
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 4: to predict the MLB playoffs anyway um.
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 3: What else?
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 4: Either way, I'm probably going to do my official filling
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 4: out of the ESPN bracket for it, although whatever. It
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 4: didn't go great for me last year, though. I think
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 4: I had Dodgers. Did I have the Dodgers winning the
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 4: World Series? No, I had Seattle winning it, I think.
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 3: Whoops. That sucked. I think I had Seattle over the Dodgers.
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 3: I don't remember. I don't remember what the fuck I did. Anyway. Yeah, Seattle,
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 3: I mean, they can't make a World Series, man.
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 4: History is against them, and they're not even going to
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 4: be in the playoffs this year, so whatever. Anyway, unless
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 4: they win out, it's not going to happen, though. But yes,
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the show here is what I'm saying. Also,
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 4: listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Numbers have been going
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 4: up there. I want them to continue going up, and
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 4: maybe we could actually make some serious money off of
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 4: this thing.
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 4: We're not at that point, anywhere near that point yet,
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 4: but it would be nice. Um, covered in you cause
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 4: my ukulele channel on YouTube. I got to update that
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 4: with the last few that I did, including the newfound glory,
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 4: Chad tribute that I did. Um, patreon.com slash learn to toad.
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 4: You can support me there. Loser cast every Tuesday and.
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 4: I don't know what's going on with the G-Spot podcast, man.
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 4: We might not be motivated to do it with our
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 4: guy out for the season, Jackson Dart.
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 3: Really, really is painful to me, man. I love Dart.
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 4: I want to be right about him being a good quarterback,
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 4: and I think I am right, but he keeps getting injured.
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 4: This time it wasn't a concussion either. This time it
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 4: was a leg injury that was like, you know, they
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 4: were using him differently this year with Harbaugh there.
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 3: Like, he wasn't taking as many chances with his body.
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 3: And just, yeah, I mean, his leg....
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 4: Got, you know, bent in the wrong direction, whatever. But
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 4: unlike Caleb, Caleb Williams is like, like week to week, basically.
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 4: And I think he might miss one game. Williams and
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 4: he had to be like carted off the field and
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 4: he was overreacting to the whole thing. Whereas Dart had
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 4: a much more serious injury and he walked off on
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 4: his own power.
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 3: Uh, who's the real man here, man? I'm sorry.
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 4: Um, yeah, it's, it's my man Dart. Anyway, that's going
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 4: to do it. I appreciate it. Everybody. Uh, Jay Forte,
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 4: you can like, uh, DM me or whatever, and I
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 4: can try to help with the fantasy stuff.
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 3: Um, that's going to do it.
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: Peace.
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 2: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 3: Let somebody answer.
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 2: Let somebody know you do not have.
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: To lose this round alone.
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 2: Hold on, not tonight, not now.
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That.
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 2: Bad luck bites hard But it don't get the crown
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on. You're still here now.