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X's O's and DiCaprio - Analytics with Bill Barnwell · Rosters to Rings Podcast

0:05
Speaker 1: Welcome to Rosters to Rings alongside Ryan McDonough, I'm fad Levine.
0:10
Speaker 2: Ryan.
0:10
Speaker 1: We have an awesome show this week. We've got a
0:12
Speaker 1: very timely guest, Bill Barnwell will be joining us for
0:15
Speaker 1: the second segment. But before we get into that, there's
0:18
Speaker 1: an exceptional controversy that has taken place in the NBA,
0:21
Speaker 1: and our diehard listener, Josh trum Atlanda, wants to ask
0:25
Speaker 1: you a question, specifically, what do you make of the
0:28
Speaker 1: Kawhi Leonard Los Angeles Clippers investigation that's ongoing right now
0:32
Speaker 1: in the NBA.
0:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, So with that, I think we have to go
0:35
Speaker 3: back a few years to the beginning of Kawhi ending
0:38
Speaker 3: up as an LA Clipper, and that was in twenty nineteen,
0:41
Speaker 3: and I think it's easy to forget given what's happened
0:44
Speaker 3: from twenty nineteen to now, the injuries that Kawhi's had,
0:46
Speaker 3: the lack of availability for the LA Clippers, how good
0:50
Speaker 3: he was in twenty nineteen. I was just traded from
0:53
Speaker 3: the San Antonio Spurs to the Toronto Raptors the year before.
0:56
Speaker 3: It's a controversial trade. Kawhi did not necessarily want to
0:59
Speaker 3: be in Toronto, and then he went on to have
1:01
Speaker 3: one of the great seasons in NBA history.
1:03
Speaker 2: That hit the.
1:03
Speaker 3: Triple bounce shot from the corner in the playoffs to
1:06
Speaker 3: beat the Philadelphia seventy six Ers. Philly fans haven't forgotten
1:10
Speaker 3: that one. Joel Embiid was crying after the game. Then
1:13
Speaker 3: he goes on to dominate the entire playoffs, including the
1:16
Speaker 3: NBA Finals. The Toronto Raptors win the first championship in
1:20
Speaker 3: franchise history in twenty nineteen, and Kawhi was not only
1:23
Speaker 3: one of the best players in in the league that year,
1:27
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, he had one of the best runs
1:28
Speaker 3: in recent NBA playoff history. So he was a huge
1:31
Speaker 3: free agent in twenty nineteen. In the processed dad was
1:36
Speaker 3: clouded by his uncle Dennis's involvement. Dennis Robertson is Kawhi's uncle.
1:42
Speaker 3: He's a father figure to Kawhi. I believe Kawhi's father
1:44
Speaker 3: passed away when he was young, so Uncle Dennis is
1:47
Speaker 3: very close to Kawhi at some extent. His business manager
1:50
Speaker 3: and so and Uncle Dennis met with a handful of teams,
1:54
Speaker 3: the LA teams, the Raptors, maybe a couple others, and
1:59
Speaker 3: there some stories they were a little bit concerning about
2:02
Speaker 3: Uncle Dennis allegedly asking for impermissible gifts and benefits from
2:06
Speaker 3: those teams. The nbba's collective arguing Agreement is very specific
2:10
Speaker 3: about what you can and can't offer two players, and
2:13
Speaker 3: Uncle Dennis reportedly asked those teams for a private plane,
2:17
Speaker 3: a house, part ownership in the team's guaranteed endorsement money.
2:22
Speaker 3: All of those things are illegal for the NBA's collective
2:25
Speaker 3: bargainer agreement. So the NBA investigated that they didn't find
2:28
Speaker 3: anything that was directly tied or linked to the Clippers.
2:31
Speaker 3: But that started the swirl. That was six years ago,
2:34
Speaker 3: But that started some of the swirl and some of
2:36
Speaker 3: the questions around Kawhi Leonard and his uncle Dennis is
2:39
Speaker 3: involved in.
2:40
Speaker 1: You know, you got to admire Uncle Dennis. He didn't
2:42
Speaker 1: just cross the line, He triple jumped across it there
2:44
Speaker 1: and right into the jet black of it. How do
2:48
Speaker 1: you how do you feel this as linked to what's
2:50
Speaker 1: happening now, the situation involving Kawhi, Clippers owner Steve Boehmer
2:55
Speaker 1: and the NBA.
2:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you may make a great point about Uncle
2:58
Speaker 3: Dennis and one of the concerns that teams in the league.
3:01
Speaker 3: In particular, has is uncle Dennis is not a certified
3:04
Speaker 3: player agent, right, So if somebody's in the league, obviously,
3:07
Speaker 3: if you're an owner, player, coach, executive, an agent, the
3:12
Speaker 3: NBA Players Association certifies an overseas the agent, you can
3:15
Speaker 3: get banned or suspended or fined or disbarred. Well, what
3:18
Speaker 3: do you do to a somewhat nefarious third party that
3:22
Speaker 3: who's kind of floating. He's not under anybody's jurisdiction or umbrella.
3:26
Speaker 3: So that complicated the situation, But really what happened last
3:29
Speaker 3: week complicated it even more. Pablo Torre former ESPN personality,
3:34
Speaker 3: he's got a very popular podcast. He did an incredible
3:38
Speaker 3: expos a basically, and he found out that there was
3:41
Speaker 3: a company called Aspiration. Interesting name. This is four or
3:45
Speaker 3: five years ago, coming out of the pandemic. But Aspiration
3:49
Speaker 3: had an endorsement deal with Kawhi Leonard. And look, we
3:51
Speaker 3: know NBA stars and Major League Baseball stars do endorsement deals,
3:55
Speaker 3: but this one was very unusual. That because in all
3:58
Speaker 3: these leagues it's supposed to be completely separate from the team,
4:01
Speaker 3: and especially separate from the player's contract. Those two things
4:04
Speaker 3: aren't supposed to have any correlation to each other. So
4:07
Speaker 3: the deal Kawhi signed with Aspiration, which touted itself as
4:11
Speaker 3: a driver in environmentally conscious business practices, including facilitating carbon
4:16
Speaker 3: offsets as we know coming out of the pandemic, green energy,
4:20
Speaker 3: green this and that was all the rage. So Aspiration
4:23
Speaker 3: Sound signed a bunch of stars, superstars across sports and entertainment,
4:28
Speaker 3: including Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert Downey Junior, and Drake. They all
4:32
Speaker 3: had deals with Aspiration. But the thing that's a pretty
4:35
Speaker 3: significant red flag that in my opinion, was that none
4:38
Speaker 3: of those deals were nearly as large as Kawhi Leonard's
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Speaker 3: Aspiration guarantee. Kawhi Leonard twenty eight million dollars over four years,
4:46
Speaker 3: seven million a year, And what Pablo Torre found out
4:49
Speaker 3: in his podcast was that Kawhi did not appear in
4:53
Speaker 3: any of the promotional materials that the other endorsement other
4:56
Speaker 3: endorsers did. In fact, it was also reported by a
4:59
Speaker 3: differ media outlet that Kawhi also had a side deal
5:03
Speaker 3: with Aspiration to receive an additional twenty million dollars in
5:06
Speaker 3: company stock, so his total compensation from Aspiration could have
5:10
Speaker 3: reached forty eight million dollars. Now that why is that
5:13
Speaker 3: number very interesting to me and a lot of other folks. Well,
5:17
Speaker 3: that's because Steve Balmer, who is not only the richest owner,
5:20
Speaker 3: not just in the NBA, not just across all sports,
5:23
Speaker 3: that he is one of the ten wealthiest individuals in
5:26
Speaker 3: the world for Forbes and the other groups that measure
5:29
Speaker 3: these things. He invested fifty million dollars into Aspiration. So
5:33
Speaker 3: you have a Clippers owner who's former Microsoft CEO, one
5:37
Speaker 3: of the best businessmen of our time. Basically now saying, geez,
5:42
Speaker 3: I just kind of blindly invested fifty million in this company.
5:44
Speaker 3: I didn't know much about it. I'm embarrassed they conned me.
5:47
Speaker 3: I didn't do my due diligence. And then you have
5:50
Speaker 3: a star player Kawhi Leonard, who had all those questions
5:53
Speaker 3: circling around him back in twenty nineteen that have to
5:55
Speaker 3: some extent lingered in the NBA and the wealthiest owner
5:58
Speaker 3: of sports. Now you fast forward to say, wait a minute,
6:01
Speaker 3: Steve Balmer, whose bile accounts a very savvy and experienced investor,
6:05
Speaker 3: he just handed this company fifty million, and this company
6:08
Speaker 3: then sponsored the Clippers. They ma did a team sponsorship
6:11
Speaker 3: deal including the Jersey Patch, and they had sponsorships with
6:14
Speaker 3: individual players, specifically Kawhi Leonard, and that total compensation happens
6:19
Speaker 3: to be forty eight million. That's a little bit unusual.
6:22
Speaker 3: Maybe it's just a coincidence that. But the other thing
6:24
Speaker 3: that's really a red flag that I want to get
6:26
Speaker 3: your take on is Kawhi Leonard, who was notoriously frugal
6:31
Speaker 3: and conservative with his money, a few years back, signed
6:35
Speaker 3: an extension with the l Clippers that was below a
6:38
Speaker 3: max extension. It was below the maximum in terms of
6:41
Speaker 3: dollars and I believe in terms of years that he
6:43
Speaker 3: could sign for. That surprised a lot of people around
6:46
Speaker 3: the league. Why would Kawhi Leonard do that? Well, I
6:48
Speaker 3: think the reason he did that, At least people are
6:51
Speaker 3: alleging the reason he did that was because, well, what
6:54
Speaker 3: if they had a way to circumvent the salary cap
6:56
Speaker 3: get that money in his pocket. That helps the team
7:00
Speaker 3: keep the luxury tax build down, It gives them more
7:03
Speaker 3: roster flexibility. And is this Steve Balmer the richest owner
7:06
Speaker 3: again in all of sports? Is this some kind of
7:08
Speaker 3: complex plan to do Those who thinks circumvent the salary
7:11
Speaker 3: cap gain roster flexibility and make Kawhi Leonard Hoole in
7:15
Speaker 3: a roundabout way.
7:16
Speaker 1: Well, it's remarkable, Ryan, when you hear the facts as
7:20
Speaker 1: you just presented him, it seems extremely egregious, extremely ostentatious.
7:25
Speaker 1: It seems like the type of case Inspector Cluso could
7:28
Speaker 1: crack if he was assigned to it. How are the
7:31
Speaker 1: other twenty nine NBA franchises reacting to this at this point.
7:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, they's significant concern now. On the one hand, NBA
7:40
Speaker 3: owners historically have not wanted everything to be completely open
7:43
Speaker 3: and transparent, and that's one of the lines that stood out.
7:46
Speaker 1: Sad Is.
7:47
Speaker 3: I think back to the recruitment of Kawhi in twenty
7:50
Speaker 3: nineteen that got pretty contentious in the Board of Governors,
7:52
Speaker 3: the group of owners that meets multiple times a year,
7:55
Speaker 3: and Toronto's contingent especially was frustrated with Adam Silver because
7:59
Speaker 3: they thought the La Clippers had done things that they
8:02
Speaker 3: weren't supposed to do, as far as showing up at
8:04
Speaker 3: Kawhai's games when he played for the Raptors, putting it
8:07
Speaker 3: out there in the media that he was their main focus,
8:09
Speaker 3: you know, was their tampering involved. And what I was
8:11
Speaker 3: told is that you. Rick Buchanan, who's the top a
8:14
Speaker 3: lawyer for the league, said to all the owners said, well,
8:16
Speaker 3: do you want us to look at all your cell
8:17
Speaker 3: phone records and servers, because we can do that. And
8:20
Speaker 3: the group said, well, maybe not to that extent. No,
8:22
Speaker 3: we don't, you know, we don't want to open everything
8:25
Speaker 3: up and have this be an FBI style forensic investigation.
8:28
Speaker 3: So they did back off a little bit. But yes,
8:31
Speaker 3: I think the fact that this is Steve Balmer, who
8:33
Speaker 3: at the time paid a record two billion dollars cash
8:36
Speaker 3: for his team, I don't think he financed it all
8:38
Speaker 3: that or brought on any minority investors. This is in
8:41
Speaker 3: twenty fourteen, before franchise valuations skyrocketed over a decade ago,
8:46
Speaker 3: and so there are questions about that. And the main concern,
8:50
Speaker 3: honestly and somewhat selfishly as far as the other twenty
8:53
Speaker 3: nine owners go, but honestly is did this cost us money?
8:57
Speaker 3: Because if Steve Balmer, who's blowing the spending that's out
9:00
Speaker 3: of the water under the old collective Bardinger agreement and
9:03
Speaker 3: having astronomical payrolls and luxury tax bills, Well, the teams
9:07
Speaker 3: that don't pay the luxury tax in the NBA fad
9:08
Speaker 3: get reimbursed by the teams that do so. If this
9:11
Speaker 3: was the way for Steve Balmer to improve his team
9:13
Speaker 3: on the court and gain competitive advantages and then also
9:17
Speaker 3: save some money and then essentially take money out of
9:20
Speaker 3: the other owner's pockets and keep it in his own,
9:22
Speaker 3: that's going to be a major issue. So all these
9:24
Speaker 3: questions swirl, and it is fascinating the timing of us
9:27
Speaker 3: recording this podcast, because as we speak, this is what
9:31
Speaker 3: mid September. The NBA Board of Governors is meeting right
9:34
Speaker 3: now in New York City. I believe the meetings are
9:36
Speaker 3: today and tomorrow. This will be topic one A. I've
9:39
Speaker 3: been told that Adam Silver is supposed to have a
9:40
Speaker 3: press conference later in the day on Wednesday, So we'll
9:44
Speaker 3: see if he addresses these kinds of things, what he
9:46
Speaker 3: says about it, because we know it's going to be
9:49
Speaker 3: hot topic with the fans, the media, and the other
9:51
Speaker 3: owners in particular. They're going to want some answers as
9:54
Speaker 3: far as what Steve Balmer knew or didn't know. And
9:57
Speaker 3: I think for me that this is going to come
9:58
Speaker 3: down to one thing. Can the NBA proved that Steve
10:01
Speaker 3: Balmer knew about this, and that he was complicit in
10:03
Speaker 3: it because again he invested fifty million in aspiration you
10:07
Speaker 3: know or not? And if if they can't, what is
10:09
Speaker 3: the extent of what they can do? Saying as far
10:12
Speaker 3: as okay, he didn't know or we can't prove that
10:15
Speaker 3: he know new, but we're still going to find him
10:18
Speaker 3: significantly or suspend him. That's a gray area in a
10:22
Speaker 3: you know, talk about a slippery slope. So I'll be
10:24
Speaker 3: fascinated to see how this ends up.
10:25
Speaker 2: But that this is a.
10:26
Speaker 3: Very popular owner who's to some extent of public figure
10:29
Speaker 3: as the form of Microsoft CEO and the richest man
10:31
Speaker 3: in all of sports. So this is one that the
10:34
Speaker 3: other owners is saying, well, because it's him, will he
10:36
Speaker 3: be given the benefit of the doubt composed as opposed
10:39
Speaker 3: to you know, Donald Stirling or Robert Sarver who I
10:41
Speaker 3: used to work for, who were not nearly as popular.
10:44
Speaker 3: And there was some thought that the league's you know,
10:45
Speaker 3: you know, working to give do those guys any favors?
10:48
Speaker 3: Is is Balmer who is more popular? Is is he
10:51
Speaker 3: going to get you know, kind of a softer treatment
10:53
Speaker 3: from the league. Those questions do continue to swirl.
10:57
Speaker 1: You know, in baseball, we don't see this as prenominantly
10:59
Speaker 1: because we don't have a salary cap. So yes, there's
11:02
Speaker 1: penalties to be paid in the form of tax, but
11:05
Speaker 1: there's less motivation to manipulate things on the top end
11:08
Speaker 1: because the penalties aren't as severe and there's not a
11:10
Speaker 1: hard cap. That's that. I think where this shows up
11:13
Speaker 1: in baseball is a few fronts. One is you know,
11:16
Speaker 1: I think you just referenced how Balmer will be treated
11:19
Speaker 1: based upon his reputation. I've often wondered when you're the
11:24
Speaker 1: leader of an organization, whether it's a GM such as
11:27
Speaker 1: we were, or an owner like you, either knew and
11:30
Speaker 1: so you're complicit, or you didn't know and so you
11:34
Speaker 1: were negligent, and I don't know that either makes you
11:37
Speaker 1: absolves you from guilt associated with whatever's transpiring. So it'll
11:41
Speaker 1: be interesting to see with what frame they put this analysis.
11:46
Speaker 1: And Balmer's inclusion in this is excuse me, I'm sorry
11:50
Speaker 1: if he doesn't know what was going on? Is that
11:52
Speaker 1: really a viable defense in this case?
11:55
Speaker 2: What you see in.
11:56
Speaker 1: Baseball sometimes is there's a lot of shared revenues. Is
11:59
Speaker 1: some team have gotten very creative in kind of hiding
12:02
Speaker 1: some of those revenues or making them not seem to
12:05
Speaker 1: be things that they should have to share. And so
12:08
Speaker 1: you know, they carve out TV deals or real estate
12:11
Speaker 1: deals or marketing deals that they try to shelter from
12:15
Speaker 1: inclusion in the calculation of their overall revenues, and they
12:19
Speaker 1: siphon them off into other companies and as a result,
12:22
Speaker 1: don't have to share as much of their revenues with teams.
12:25
Speaker 1: You see that in baseball, You see it more than
12:27
Speaker 1: you see what you're talking about here.
12:29
Speaker 3: Yeah. One historical example in the NBA that's getting referenced
12:32
Speaker 3: a lot and will continue to be referenced over the
12:34
Speaker 3: last next few weeks and months is Minnesota the Timberwolves
12:39
Speaker 3: with Joe Smith. What happened in two thousand. Glenn Taylor
12:43
Speaker 3: the then owner and Kevin McHale then GM got Joe Smith
12:46
Speaker 3: to sign below market deals to get his bird rights,
12:49
Speaker 3: which allows a team to exceed the salary cap and
12:51
Speaker 3: then sign them to whatever. So they did something that
12:54
Speaker 3: I've never heard of, that they actually agreed on the
12:57
Speaker 3: contract and signed it, and I think put in a
12:58
Speaker 3: vault and thought it would never find the light of day.
13:00
Speaker 3: Well it did, and David Stern, the then commissioner, who
13:03
Speaker 3: was a very tough guy. He fined the Wolves three
13:06
Speaker 3: and a half million, which was the maximum fine. Keep
13:09
Speaker 3: in mind this is twenty five years ago. He voided
13:12
Speaker 3: Joe Smith's contract. He stripped the team of its next
13:15
Speaker 3: first five first round picks, two of them were essentially
13:18
Speaker 3: eventually returned for good behavior, and then he basically suspended
13:21
Speaker 3: Glenn Taylor the owner and Kevin McHale the GM for
13:24
Speaker 3: a year. That's the only real precedent for this in
13:27
Speaker 3: the NBA. One more final point that that I should
13:29
Speaker 3: have mentioned earlier, that's really important here. The contract Kawhi
13:32
Speaker 3: signed was also very unusual because in addition to guaranteeing
13:36
Speaker 3: four years in twenty eight million, there seemingly was a
13:38
Speaker 3: clause in there that Kawhi Leonard did not have to
13:40
Speaker 3: promote aspiration at all. In fact, he didn't have to
13:43
Speaker 3: do anything if he didn't want to do it. The
13:45
Speaker 3: only condition of the contracts that made it voidable Thad
13:50
Speaker 3: was if he was no longer a member of the
13:51
Speaker 3: La Clippers, which is really unusual because think about that,
13:55
Speaker 3: what's in that for aspiration if that is the case,
13:59
Speaker 3: and just kind of how looks on its surface, Why
14:01
Speaker 3: would that be a good deal in any way for
14:03
Speaker 3: the companies to pay a guy twenty eight million dollars
14:05
Speaker 3: if he doesn't want to do anything. He didn't do anything,
14:07
Speaker 3: So that, you know, adds some suspicion that that, yeah,
14:10
Speaker 3: what Balmer at least knew about it, or you know,
14:13
Speaker 3: potentially was complicit in it, because because why else would
14:16
Speaker 3: it happen? That Those are the kind of questions that
14:18
Speaker 3: NBA teams are asking, and I think to this point
14:21
Speaker 3: I haven't heard a real good, good answer, And that's
14:23
Speaker 3: why I think Balmer and the clips are in some
14:25
Speaker 3: hot water.
14:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, it just it feels like there's a ton of
14:28
Speaker 1: smoke here not to have a fire somewhere percolating. So
14:31
Speaker 1: it'll be fascinating to see how this plays out. You know,
14:33
Speaker 1: the biggest controversy in baseball over the last ten years
14:36
Speaker 1: was the Houston Astros scandal, you know, coming out of
14:39
Speaker 1: the World Series and trash cans being involved in in
14:42
Speaker 1: proprieties about sharing of information in game to enhance their
14:45
Speaker 1: chances of winning. But to your point, the maximum penalty
14:48
Speaker 1: at that time was a five million dollar fine. It
14:51
Speaker 1: was levied on the ownership of the Houston Astros, and
14:54
Speaker 1: you know, for those of us who were competing with them,
14:57
Speaker 1: you think about those in those moments, and he certainly
14:59
Speaker 1: was not near as wealthy is as Balmer is. Is
15:02
Speaker 1: a five million dollar penalty to win a World Series,
15:05
Speaker 1: I think that's a payment most owners would make. They
15:07
Speaker 1: didn't want their integrity taken into question. But the reality
15:10
Speaker 1: is that finds associated with these things, which are collectively
15:13
Speaker 1: bargained in large regard, are really a pittance in compared
15:17
Speaker 1: to the benefits that can be gained from some of
15:19
Speaker 1: these activities that some of these owners are undertaking. So
15:23
Speaker 1: it's fascinating to see how this one unfolds, I.
15:26
Speaker 3: Think, and Steve Balmer, according to Forbes and other sources,
15:29
Speaker 3: it's worth over one hundred and fifty billion dollars. The
15:32
Speaker 3: most the NBA has ever find somebody was ten million dollars.
15:36
Speaker 3: That's what Adam Silver, the Commissioner, find Son's owner Robert
15:39
Speaker 3: Sarver in twenty twenty two, three years ago. So there
15:43
Speaker 3: is a limit that And you know, Steve Balmer probably
15:45
Speaker 3: has ten million dollars in his ATM account walking around.
15:48
Speaker 3: That's pocket teams. Dam You're not going to be able
15:49
Speaker 3: to hurt him financially. So the questions continue, and this
15:53
Speaker 3: story is not going away. It's going to be investigated
15:55
Speaker 3: by the league. They announced late last week they're launching
15:57
Speaker 3: a full investigation I think the two of us and
16:00
Speaker 3: certainly the other twenty nineteenth, they're fascinated to see where
16:03
Speaker 3: it ends up. So we'll have more about that story
16:05
Speaker 3: here on Rosters the Rings as it develops, But right
16:07
Speaker 3: now we're going to have a football insider, a guy
16:10
Speaker 3: who brinds more film and knows more about the NFL
16:12
Speaker 3: than just about anybody, especially from an analytical statistical bount.
16:16
Speaker 3: That is Bill Barnwell. Stay with us. Will be right
16:19
Speaker 3: back on Rosters to Rings with Bill Barnwell just after this.
16:23
Speaker 1: Welcome back to Rosters to Rings. What perfect timing to
16:26
Speaker 1: have our next guest on Bill Barnwell. As a little
16:29
Speaker 1: piece of background, Bill attended Northeastern University in Boston, where
16:33
Speaker 1: he worked for Football Outsiders, a website dedicated to football
16:36
Speaker 1: statistical analysis. Bill started working full time for Football Outsiders
16:40
Speaker 1: upon graduation. In twenty eleven. Bill joined Grantland, a sports
16:44
Speaker 1: and pop culture website originated by the esteemed Bill Simmons
16:48
Speaker 1: affiliated with ESPN. After dipping his tootsies and covering the NBA,
16:53
Speaker 1: UFC and Premier League, Bill started specializing in the NFL,
16:57
Speaker 1: establishing himself as a pioneer in foot ball analytics. Overtime,
17:02
Speaker 1: Bill has married his exceptional statistical acumen with advanced phil
17:06
Speaker 1: for roster construction and scheme analysis. Bill continues to serve
17:10
Speaker 1: as one of ESPN's foremost NFL analysts. Bill is regarded
17:15
Speaker 1: throughout the industry as one of the brightest NFL minds,
17:19
Speaker 1: and in addition to reading Bill's work on ESPN and
17:21
Speaker 1: seeing him across all their platforms and hearing them on
17:24
Speaker 1: countless podcasts, you can also hear Bill in his podcast,
17:27
Speaker 1: The Bill Barnwell Show. Bill, Welcome to Rosters to Rings.
17:31
Speaker 2: This was great. If I had known I was going
17:34
Speaker 2: to get that kind of intro, I'll do the show
17:36
Speaker 2: every week if that's the ego boost I'm going to
17:39
Speaker 2: get from Hoppy on. Thank you so much that.
17:41
Speaker 1: I actually had a lot on the cutting room floor
17:42
Speaker 1: that didn't even include, which we may hit you on later.
17:45
Speaker 1: It's something about being part of an improv group in
17:49
Speaker 1: American Express Concierge as well. But those are questions for
17:52
Speaker 1: down the.
17:53
Speaker 2: Road, Bill, I may have signed an NDA about the
17:58
Speaker 2: concierge stuff. I'm not sure if it still holds up now.
18:01
Speaker 2: I don't know how long the NBA's last, but hopefully
18:03
Speaker 2: not fifteen years or so. Bill.
18:05
Speaker 1: One of our actual traditions on the show, in addition
18:08
Speaker 1: to great introductions, is asking every guest their sports origin story.
18:13
Speaker 1: How'd you fall in love with sports? Bill?
18:16
Speaker 2: Oh gosh, So I grew up with a family that
18:19
Speaker 2: was very, very sports exposed. My dad was a roller
18:24
Speaker 2: hockey player who played in Manhattan and Brooklyn, so we'd
18:28
Speaker 2: go to get dragged to all of his games. My
18:31
Speaker 2: uncle had some sort of undefined role with the New
18:35
Speaker 2: York Islanders. I'm not sure exactly what he did. My
18:39
Speaker 2: best guess is something like traveling secretary. So we would
18:42
Speaker 2: get you know, we'd go to Islanders games and we
18:44
Speaker 2: would go back into the locker room, and that was
18:46
Speaker 2: the coolest thing in the world to me. Oh my gosh,
18:47
Speaker 2: I could be you know, there's actual players here. I
18:50
Speaker 2: It just it was so much fun and so growing
18:52
Speaker 2: up in Queen's obviously plenty of sports. You know, you've
18:55
Speaker 2: got two teams in pretty much every sport regularly plenty
18:58
Speaker 2: of MSG network and then and you know, playing at
19:01
Speaker 2: a very low and unsuccessful level at pretty much everything.
19:05
Speaker 2: But just from the first moments I can remember, sports
19:08
Speaker 2: were an essential part of my family life. And so,
19:12
Speaker 2: you know, as someone who was very early on realized
19:15
Speaker 2: I was not going to be playing sports professionally, started thinking, okay, well,
19:18
Speaker 2: you know what interests me and what am I actually
19:21
Speaker 2: good at that might vaguely be sports adjacent.
19:25
Speaker 3: Bill in the intro of Thad mentioned that you did
19:27
Speaker 3: different things before becoming one of the pre eminent football
19:30
Speaker 3: experts and a pioneer in the football analytics movement. What
19:33
Speaker 3: was it that drew you toward football? And as you
19:36
Speaker 3: were going through your process dabbling in the NBA and
19:39
Speaker 3: other sports, what was it that kind of kept drawing
19:41
Speaker 3: you back to the NFL, where you've really made your name.
19:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it all goes back, oddly enough, to a website.
19:49
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if you guys remember or know of
19:51
Speaker 2: Do you remember Baseball Primer? Oh? Wow, okay, so we
19:56
Speaker 2: got an oh yes for Baseball Prime. So back in
19:59
Speaker 2: the day, this is right when I would have been
20:01
Speaker 2: starting college as a big baseball perspectives reader. You can't
20:04
Speaker 2: see in this book's here. But there was like some
20:06
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety seven nineteen ninety eight baseball perspectus is up
20:10
Speaker 2: on the shelf up there. But I was also a
20:12
Speaker 2: baseball primer reader, and I had moved to Boston. I
20:15
Speaker 2: was starting at Northeastern, and a guy who was another
20:20
Speaker 2: baseball primer poster posted about this, like very intense, like
20:24
Speaker 2: twenty five man national league only fantasy baseball league auction
20:29
Speaker 2: twenty five man, you know, with minor league players. Basically,
20:34
Speaker 2: just if you are a nerd about baseball, come join
20:36
Speaker 2: this fantasy baseball league. This sounded great to me. This
20:38
Speaker 2: is exactly what I wanted to do. So I went
20:40
Speaker 2: and joined that league. And the guy who ran that
20:42
Speaker 2: league was Aaron Shatz, who I think, in the next
20:45
Speaker 2: twelve months started Footbodsiders, so that I went back for
20:50
Speaker 2: the second year's draft. He had started this football thing. I,
20:53
Speaker 2: you know, was not expecting to really do anything with sports,
20:56
Speaker 2: but I didn't really know what I was going to
20:57
Speaker 2: do with my life anyway, so I sort of asked, hey,
20:59
Speaker 2: do you anybody to help with the website? And then
21:01
Speaker 2: that became some data entry opportunities, and it became some
21:04
Speaker 2: you know, writing for five or ten dollars here or there,
21:07
Speaker 2: opportunities and one thing led to another. I mean it
21:10
Speaker 2: was always something where you know, the idea of using
21:14
Speaker 2: data or using analytics or using evidence to answer questions
21:17
Speaker 2: is always interesting to me. And that's not a you know,
21:20
Speaker 2: just had to be a football thing. That can be
21:21
Speaker 2: a basketball thing. It can be a baseball thing, it
21:24
Speaker 2: can be a Premier league thing. But I do think
21:26
Speaker 2: the exciting thing about football. Then this is incredibly unfair,
21:31
Speaker 2: but this was I think my naivete at the time.
21:33
Speaker 2: With baseball, it was like, well, everything solved. You know,
21:36
Speaker 2: it's two thousand and six. We figured everything out. There's
21:38
Speaker 2: nothing else to learn about baseball. And of course that
21:40
Speaker 2: you can attest to you how false and obviously untrue
21:44
Speaker 2: that is. But you know, with football, it was such
21:46
Speaker 2: an exciting space because we didn't know so much. I
21:49
Speaker 2: mean a lot of the times when I was doing
21:50
Speaker 2: research on a topic, the data set didn't exist. I
21:53
Speaker 2: had to you know, scrape different websites or you know,
21:56
Speaker 2: sort of go into you know, the web archive to
21:59
Speaker 2: gather data. I remember very vividly, like going on like
22:02
Speaker 2: a CNN website that suff for some reason had like
22:05
Speaker 2: injury reports from nineteen ninety nine that I was grabbing
22:08
Speaker 2: to do an injury research topic. You know, so that
22:11
Speaker 2: exciting thing of it being sort of a wild West
22:13
Speaker 2: of Okay, if I gather the data, I could be
22:16
Speaker 2: the first person to answer this question. And when I
22:18
Speaker 2: do the research, I don't even know what the answer
22:20
Speaker 2: actually is this question. And that was so fun and
22:22
Speaker 2: excited to me, like more and more to football, and
22:25
Speaker 2: then of course football being what it is because it
22:27
Speaker 2: was such a you know, such a cornerstone of American culture.
22:31
Speaker 2: There was so much interest in football, there were more
22:33
Speaker 2: opportunities writing about football, and so that inevitably too, you know,
22:36
Speaker 2: kind of a career covering football.
22:38
Speaker 1: Pill You just kind of touched on it a little
22:40
Speaker 1: bit there. But the state the state of analytics in
22:42
Speaker 1: the NFL when you started working at football outsiders, like like,
22:46
Speaker 1: what would what was the average employment status of people
22:49
Speaker 1: for NFL teams who were dedicated to analytics and statistical analysis?
22:54
Speaker 2: It was It's funny because it wasn't. It's not like
22:57
Speaker 2: there was like, you know, one person or sort of
23:00
Speaker 2: one like tier of people across different teams. It really
23:04
Speaker 2: varied from team to team. There were a lot of
23:06
Speaker 2: teams who had absolutely nothing and who were not interested,
23:09
Speaker 2: maybe actively actively aggressively excited about how uninterested they were
23:14
Speaker 2: in analytics. And then you'd have a handful of teams
23:18
Speaker 2: who would have a totally different range of people. And
23:21
Speaker 2: when you found out somebody was analytically inclined, it was
23:24
Speaker 2: like a little small victory, like, oh, you know, for
23:26
Speaker 2: some teams ABO, you know they're trying to think their
23:31
Speaker 2: quality control coach is open to using data and reached
23:35
Speaker 2: out to us. Well, great, that's awesome. We know we
23:36
Speaker 2: have a guy in Tennessee just picking an organization randomly.
23:39
Speaker 2: I remembered exactly which organization it was, but we have
23:42
Speaker 2: a guy in this organization. And then you'd have an
23:44
Speaker 2: organization where the owner would be super into analytics, and
23:47
Speaker 2: it's like, well, that's slightly more powerful and helpful to
23:49
Speaker 2: us if the owner is interested in working with data.
23:52
Speaker 2: You'd have a couple of coaches and a lot few
23:53
Speaker 2: assistant coaches, a few gms here and there, and it
23:57
Speaker 2: ranged like it's not a binary thing. It's not like
23:59
Speaker 2: you either have you know, the most analytically inclined person
24:03
Speaker 2: in the world or someone who will not turn on
24:05
Speaker 2: a computer, there's a balance of some people are more
24:07
Speaker 2: open than others. Some people are really open and interested,
24:10
Speaker 2: some people are trying to find different ways to use
24:12
Speaker 2: it and leverage it. And so you had a really
24:14
Speaker 2: wide variance from team to team, which then you know,
24:17
Speaker 2: and I think this is true in other sports as well,
24:20
Speaker 2: became very clear in terms of the decisions those teams
24:22
Speaker 2: made when there were people in charge, you had analytics backgrounds,
24:25
Speaker 2: you know, if you had an owner who was very
24:27
Speaker 2: analytically inclined. And I don't think I'm telling tales out
24:30
Speaker 2: of school now and saying that the Eagles the Ravens
24:32
Speaker 2: are two of the most analytically inclient teams in the
24:34
Speaker 2: organ in football, from ownership down, that was a Those
24:39
Speaker 2: were teams that made analytically inclient moves and you could
24:42
Speaker 2: very much see other teams who did not have people
24:46
Speaker 2: in those roles, people in meaningful roles there who were
24:49
Speaker 2: not making quite as analytically inclient moves. And those some
24:52
Speaker 2: of them work, some of them didn't. But just the
24:54
Speaker 2: process was very clear and transparent for those teams versus
24:57
Speaker 2: maybe some other teams who didn't have people in those
25:00
Speaker 2: those buildings.
25:01
Speaker 3: Bill is someone who's studied analytics in the NFL for
25:04
Speaker 3: a couple of decades. Now, what would you say is
25:06
Speaker 3: the state of the analytical movement today in twenty twenty five?
25:10
Speaker 3: A Thad and I have talked about it before on
25:12
Speaker 3: the show. I don't think there's any question that baseball
25:14
Speaker 3: was the first mover. That's why you were doing this
25:16
Speaker 3: stuff in the early two thousands, and baseball was way ahead.
25:19
Speaker 3: Obviously Moneyball popularized it. Then the NBA to some extent
25:22
Speaker 3: with what Darryl Moore in the Houston Rockets did, I
25:24
Speaker 3: think was probably in the middle. To me, the NFL
25:26
Speaker 3: seemingly is the last one, at least as far as
25:29
Speaker 3: widespread adoption of the strategy. How would you describe the
25:32
Speaker 3: state of analytics in the National Football League in twenty
25:35
Speaker 3: twenty five.
25:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really come a long way. And to start,
25:40
Speaker 2: I mean, the data is so much more impressive and
25:43
Speaker 2: there's so much more to work with. The NFL's Next
25:44
Speaker 2: Gen Stats Project, I mean, is giving out billions and
25:48
Speaker 2: billions of data points on player moving player data, and
25:50
Speaker 2: of course that gives you an opportunity to gain a
25:52
Speaker 2: significant advantage if you can find something that's really valuable
25:55
Speaker 2: and other teams are really not doing anything with that data.
25:57
Speaker 2: That's a big opportunity, and there are teams who I
26:00
Speaker 2: think really trust that information and trust that data. The
26:04
Speaker 2: access to not just analytics, but access to film has
26:07
Speaker 2: gone a long way. I mean, it wasn't that long ago.
26:11
Speaker 2: I feel very old saying this, but you know when
26:13
Speaker 2: I started, which would have been almost twenty years ago,
26:16
Speaker 2: now getting very old, you know, it wasn't like you
26:19
Speaker 2: could pull up the ALL twenty two from a game.
26:22
Speaker 2: Even if you worked in the league. You would get
26:24
Speaker 2: tape sent to you with ALL twenty two. You'd have
26:25
Speaker 2: to load it up, there'd be an intern who had
26:27
Speaker 2: to chop it up to individual plays, and then maybe
26:30
Speaker 2: you'd have a assistant internally that would you know, assign
26:33
Speaker 2: that to stuff. But now, I mean I was watching
26:36
Speaker 2: the Bears Vikings game on Monday night, and twenty minutes
26:39
Speaker 2: after the game was over, I was watching the ALL
26:41
Speaker 2: twenty two. And that's something that is just an incredible
26:45
Speaker 2: amount of power and information when it comes to figuring
26:48
Speaker 2: stuff out, understanding what you're doing, and then if you
26:51
Speaker 2: are someone who's analytically inclined, then interpreting that and turning
26:54
Speaker 2: it into meaningful data is something that was totally impossible
26:58
Speaker 2: fifteen twenty years ago. There is more buying. Every team
27:02
Speaker 2: has analytics people. Now, I will say this, it is
27:06
Speaker 2: not baseball in the sense that every team has analytics people.
27:10
Speaker 2: I would say that in baseball, and then you can
27:13
Speaker 2: correct me if I'm wrong. I would say above ninety
27:16
Speaker 2: percent of teams have a meaningful analytics department who actually
27:20
Speaker 2: have a meaningful say and impact into the decision making
27:22
Speaker 2: on a day to day basis. That is not the
27:24
Speaker 2: case in football. Everyone has analytics people or an analytics
27:28
Speaker 2: department because they don't want to be left behind. Do
27:30
Speaker 2: they actually use that to make decisions? That is still
27:33
Speaker 2: I think more of a a binary situation. I think
27:39
Speaker 2: there are teams who are incredibly analytically in client and
27:41
Speaker 2: who make smart moves and some not smart moves, but
27:44
Speaker 2: who I think approach things with an analytic bent, but
27:47
Speaker 2: they still might be very aggressive doing something that analytics
27:50
Speaker 2: would say is a bad idea. I'd go with the Jags,
27:53
Speaker 2: for example, where certainly they're open to analytics and I
27:56
Speaker 2: think they're smart people there. In terms of James Pladstone
27:58
Speaker 2: and some of the people they've hired but they went
28:00
Speaker 2: out and traded two first round picks this last year
28:02
Speaker 2: for Travis Hunter, a player who was not a quarterback,
28:05
Speaker 2: was not an edge rusher, who does not play He
28:07
Speaker 2: plays wide receiver, and I guess we'll see how much
28:09
Speaker 2: quarterback he plays. But they saw him as a transcendent talent.
28:12
Speaker 2: Maybe he will be, maybe he won't be. I don't
28:13
Speaker 2: think it's the worst idea in the world, but that's
28:15
Speaker 2: something that I think maybe other organizations would say, hey,
28:18
Speaker 2: that's not an analytically inclined booth. There are teams who
28:20
Speaker 2: will spent money on running backs. The Eagles, the most
28:22
Speaker 2: probably analytically friendly organization in the league, spent money on
28:25
Speaker 2: sa Kwon Barkley, and obviously that worked out quite well
28:28
Speaker 2: for them. So I do think it is easier in
28:33
Speaker 2: football to make exceptions. I do feel like there are
28:35
Speaker 2: teams who might be very analytically inclined to say, well,
28:39
Speaker 2: we're going to trade up in the draft, even though
28:40
Speaker 2: that's not a good idea, because this is the exception,
28:42
Speaker 2: and maybe that's not always the exception, it's always easier
28:45
Speaker 2: for me on the outside to look at it and say, okay, well,
28:47
Speaker 2: you should stick with your principles as opposed to being
28:49
Speaker 2: in the building, you know, being the GM and saying, oh, well,
28:51
Speaker 2: we have a second round grade in this guy, and
28:53
Speaker 2: he's here in the fourth round. We need to get
28:55
Speaker 2: this guy. So it's always easier from the outside. But
28:58
Speaker 2: I do think it has come signific It is so
29:00
Speaker 2: much further than what it was twenty years ago, and
29:04
Speaker 2: it's really fascinating to see.
29:06
Speaker 1: Bill. One just observation I would share relative to the
29:08
Speaker 1: point you made and how it ties into baseball is
29:11
Speaker 1: I do think baseball gets a lot of credit for
29:13
Speaker 1: being on the forefront, but it wasn't universal. You know,
29:15
Speaker 1: there were a handful of teams that were really on
29:17
Speaker 1: the cutting edge, and I think what we saw was
29:20
Speaker 1: a real evolution. So you know, we were having people
29:22
Speaker 1: who were exceptionally intelligent who were helping inform decisions, but
29:25
Speaker 1: they were very much separated from the coaching staff. I
29:28
Speaker 1: think the teams that have done the best, and Bill,
29:31
Speaker 1: we've had aj Hinch and Scott service to two managers
29:34
Speaker 1: on the show here is the managers who have integrated
29:37
Speaker 1: those analytics folks almost into being part of their coaching staff.
29:40
Speaker 1: I think have had the most success because when you
29:43
Speaker 1: water down their message to a coach, to a manager,
29:45
Speaker 1: then ultimately to a player. Sometimes the impact of that message,
29:49
Speaker 1: sometimes the impact of that information doesn't actually impact the
29:52
Speaker 1: in game decision making. The teams that are integrating the most,
29:55
Speaker 1: I think are getting the most out of this, to
29:58
Speaker 1: say the least in baseball. And I think your path
30:02
Speaker 1: speaks to some of that evolution. Like you started grounded
30:04
Speaker 1: in analytics, but you've really matured into somebody who is
30:08
Speaker 1: really advanced in roster construction and scheme and video breakdown.
30:12
Speaker 1: Like how did you make that transition in your career?
30:15
Speaker 1: How did you apply yourself to become an expert in
30:18
Speaker 1: both sides of the analysis?
30:21
Speaker 2: Well, I mean the reality was, I'm just not good
30:23
Speaker 2: enough at math to be someone who was going to
30:26
Speaker 2: be on the level of you know, the quants NFL
30:28
Speaker 2: teams can hire now. And I mean certainly there's brilliant
30:31
Speaker 2: people working for NFL teams these days, with degrees and
30:35
Speaker 2: resumes I could never touch if I'd voted the rest
30:37
Speaker 2: of my life to studying math or studying development. Just
30:41
Speaker 2: really smart people. And that's great. There should be smarter
30:43
Speaker 2: people in these buildings working for teams than me. But
30:47
Speaker 2: I think with the NFL, like I was not hired
30:50
Speaker 2: as a quantitative writer at places, I was hired as
30:52
Speaker 2: a football writer. And so I've always felt like my
30:55
Speaker 2: job is to be accurate and fair and to give
30:57
Speaker 2: evidence for what I'm saying, to get evidence or why
31:00
Speaker 2: things are happening, why things are going to happen, why
31:02
Speaker 2: things happened, and inevitably the numbers were only going to
31:07
Speaker 2: take me part of the way. There. You know something
31:10
Speaker 2: that is maybe analytics adjacent, but we don't really think
31:13
Speaker 2: about it this analytics. It's a salary cap. And the
31:16
Speaker 2: reality is if you want to understand what happens in
31:18
Speaker 2: the NFL, why teams do things, why gms feel leverage
31:21
Speaker 2: to do things, you have to understand the salary cap.
31:24
Speaker 2: You have to understand why how contracts work. And frankly,
31:28
Speaker 2: even now, I mean here in twenty twenty five, like
31:30
Speaker 2: it's gotten better, but there were still so many times
31:33
Speaker 2: where I'll see an article or see a video on
31:35
Speaker 2: a guy where it's like, now'll hear, oh, you know
31:37
Speaker 2: this guy might get treated and I think it's there's
31:40
Speaker 2: no way they can financially make that work as the
31:42
Speaker 2: salary cap, and it's just you know if you can
31:45
Speaker 2: take care of that and just remove Okay, I'm not
31:47
Speaker 2: going to say this one dumb thing, because I know
31:49
Speaker 2: this could different possibly happen. You might have eventually then
31:52
Speaker 2: land on things that can happen and leads you to
31:53
Speaker 2: maybe some of the things that might make sense for teams
31:56
Speaker 2: based on the money and the contract situations involved. And
31:59
Speaker 2: then with the film, it has really been great to
32:03
Speaker 2: have the opportunity to see stuff. I mean, when I
32:05
Speaker 2: was at Grantlin twenty eleven, twenty twelve, the first couple
32:09
Speaker 2: of years I was there, all twenty two, data was
32:11
Speaker 2: not only not available, but the NFL was even talking
32:13
Speaker 2: to the Wall Street Journal and saying, We're never going
32:16
Speaker 2: to make this available. We don't trust people with this data,
32:18
Speaker 2: which seemed a little crazy to me that the NFL
32:20
Speaker 2: wants to make money on everything, was not going to
32:22
Speaker 2: monetize this video that was going to be dedicated to
32:25
Speaker 2: hardcore fans. And sure enough, they eventually did monetize it,
32:28
Speaker 2: and now it does very well for them as a product.
32:30
Speaker 2: But you know, I'd have to write about a game
32:33
Speaker 2: or write about a play, and I wouldn't have the
32:36
Speaker 2: video of the play. You know, I'd have what I
32:38
Speaker 2: saw on TV. Maybe I'd get lucky and there'd be
32:40
Speaker 2: a replay, but that was you know, talking to coaches
32:43
Speaker 2: or talking to beat reports and say, okay, what happened
32:45
Speaker 2: on this play? What you see? And now I mean,
32:48
Speaker 2: like I said, having that video ten twenty minutes after
32:52
Speaker 2: the game or the worst than the day after the game,
32:55
Speaker 2: there's just more opportunities to learn. I just see so
32:58
Speaker 2: much more because I can now you know, I can
33:00
Speaker 2: go on the NFL Next ten stats platform or NFL
33:03
Speaker 2: Plus and I can go say, show me every third
33:05
Speaker 2: down from last week, and I'll do that and want
33:08
Speaker 2: to see every team play, look at to see everything
33:10
Speaker 2: they decided, every concept they ran. And then eventually you're
33:13
Speaker 2: going to see more stuff and learn more. And then
33:16
Speaker 2: on top of that, I think from the from the
33:18
Speaker 2: knowledge side, something that's been really valuable for me that
33:21
Speaker 2: it's maybe harder in other sports, but I think with
33:23
Speaker 2: football there's a really strong culture of coaches clinics. You know,
33:26
Speaker 2: you can if you look hard enough, you'll find a
33:29
Speaker 2: clinic of Bill Belichick talking about defense to stick save
33:31
Speaker 2: and talking about defenses. You can even go to clinics.
33:34
Speaker 2: I remember a couple of years ago, I was in
33:36
Speaker 2: Texas for a trip and there was a clinic on
33:40
Speaker 2: the air raid offense, and I said, Okay, you know,
33:43
Speaker 2: might as well go, right, Like, I don't know enough
33:45
Speaker 2: about the air raid offense. It's interesting NFL teams run
33:48
Speaker 2: air raid concepts. Let me go to this clinic in person.
33:50
Speaker 2: And I got there and there was a bunch of
33:53
Speaker 2: high school coaches and me with a little ESPN name tag,
33:56
Speaker 2: and sure enough, like you know, a couple high school
33:59
Speaker 2: coaches talk and then a third HI coach comes up
34:01
Speaker 2: and he says, yeah, I got fired last year and
34:04
Speaker 2: it was the media's fault and I hate the media.
34:06
Speaker 2: And then everyone cheers, and I'm like, oh, we well
34:09
Speaker 2: nervous and I'm going to sneak out of the back
34:10
Speaker 2: of this this you know, coaches clinic. But really it's
34:13
Speaker 2: one of those things where I think when coaches and
34:16
Speaker 2: when players see that you want to learn and that
34:19
Speaker 2: you want to report on things accurately and kind of
34:21
Speaker 2: give not just say oh, this guy screwed up, that
34:23
Speaker 2: guy screwed up, but more just what is the actual
34:25
Speaker 2: logic behind what happened? Here, you not only learn a lot,
34:28
Speaker 2: but I think you also open more doors for you
34:30
Speaker 2: up as well. So I think just you know, sort
34:32
Speaker 2: of trying to be more thoughtful about elements of the
34:35
Speaker 2: game that weren't just analytics opened up doors for me
34:37
Speaker 2: and I think made me a more well rounded and
34:39
Speaker 2: better you know, I guess journalist or analysts. Yeah.
34:43
Speaker 3: Bill fadd and I do clinics about how to run
34:45
Speaker 3: successful sports podcasts. We're not sure anybody listens or pays attention,
34:49
Speaker 3: but we do those. Maybe it's just the two of
34:50
Speaker 3: us talking to each other offline, but now on a
34:54
Speaker 3: more serious note, I want to get inside your process.
34:56
Speaker 3: And one of the things we like to do here
34:57
Speaker 3: on Roster Ster Rings is take listeners behind the curtain.
35:00
Speaker 3: We were talking about a little bit pre show, and
35:02
Speaker 3: as I analyzed the three major sports in this country,
35:05
Speaker 3: I think the NFL, see me, the NBA has the
35:07
Speaker 3: longest season start to finish. It's really a marathon. Major
35:10
Speaker 3: League Baseball is the most condensed. What that and those
35:13
Speaker 3: guys are doing. It's every day for five or six months.
35:15
Speaker 3: And then the NFL to me, is the most like
35:17
Speaker 3: a sprint. And so this week was a little bit
35:19
Speaker 3: unique Week one in the NFL. The Thursday night opener
35:22
Speaker 3: the Friday night game in Brazil, which is streamed on YouTube,
35:25
Speaker 3: and then Sunday Monday. So take us inside next week,
35:28
Speaker 3: for example, give our listeners a preview of what will
35:30
Speaker 3: We two is like for Bill Barnwell, starting say at
35:33
Speaker 3: noon on Sunday, because I imagine that's a pretty intense
35:36
Speaker 3: twelve to fifteen hours of football.
35:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, noon on Sunday. I forget what I mentioned it
35:42
Speaker 2: on the show or off air, but we just had
35:44
Speaker 2: our first child in March, which has been really exciting.
35:46
Speaker 2: So I spent you know, the last five months timing
35:49
Speaker 2: on the baby was perfect. End of March, just before
35:51
Speaker 2: the draft, really nailed the time in on that one,
35:54
Speaker 2: which was great. But you know, I last five months,
35:56
Speaker 2: I've been spending Sunday hanging out with my new baby,
35:58
Speaker 2: hanging out with my wife, going out and joining Boston,
36:01
Speaker 2: which is beautiful in the summer. Now it's just I
36:05
Speaker 2: am here in my office, which is really a couch
36:08
Speaker 2: and a couple of TVs, and I'm just sitting there
36:10
Speaker 2: watching I am watching a little bit of Red Zones,
36:12
Speaker 2: I'm trying to get to see a little bit of everything,
36:14
Speaker 2: and then I'm quad boxing on the other TV. So
36:16
Speaker 2: I'm watching four games and TV and flipping back and forth,
36:19
Speaker 2: and if there's a game I really want to watch,
36:21
Speaker 2: I am trying to focus more on that, and it's
36:24
Speaker 2: usually more later in the year, you know, really in
36:25
Speaker 2: this season, I want to see a little bit of everybody,
36:27
Speaker 2: just so I get a sense of, Okay, this is
36:29
Speaker 2: what's happening in this building, and that's building. This is
36:31
Speaker 2: you know, who's playing well here, who's not playing well here?
36:33
Speaker 2: Just learning about the league as a whole. And then
36:35
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. I do want to pick on
36:39
Speaker 2: any team, but I'll say the Raiders not gonna lie
36:41
Speaker 2: when you get to December. Usually if the Raiders are bad,
36:43
Speaker 2: I'm not watching a lot of Raiders. I'm trying to
36:45
Speaker 2: move on and focus on other stuff. But the beginning
36:49
Speaker 2: of the year, I am watching everyone. So Sunday one o'clock,
36:53
Speaker 2: four o'clock games, I'm sitting there and watching, taking notes.
36:57
Speaker 2: I'm doing some some TV stuff, some video stuff with
37:00
Speaker 2: Dominique Foxworth through a former NFLPA head. I'm doing that
37:05
Speaker 2: stuff in the evening, usually during the Sunday night game.
37:07
Speaker 2: So oddly enough, I don't typically watch a Sunday football
37:10
Speaker 2: game in real time. This was this week's game, which
37:13
Speaker 2: was insane, which in the Bills and Rings was kind
37:14
Speaker 2: of an exception where I did, you know, sort of
37:16
Speaker 2: sit down for the third and fourth quarter to watch
37:18
Speaker 2: what ended up being one of the games of the year.
37:21
Speaker 2: I ended up being really fun to watch, but I
37:23
Speaker 2: typically skipping that game and I'm talking with my editors,
37:26
Speaker 2: I'm talking about what I'm going to write about, and
37:27
Speaker 2: the until about three am I am writing. I am,
37:32
Speaker 2: you know, trying to talk about the league as a whole.
37:35
Speaker 2: I'm trying to give the perspective of, Okay, if you
37:37
Speaker 2: didn't watch this, this is what happened. This was the
37:39
Speaker 2: most meaningful story from what we saw on Sunday. This
37:42
Speaker 2: is a you know, sort of a swath of things
37:44
Speaker 2: that were interesting on Sunday. Just trying to find you know,
37:47
Speaker 2: because the reality is like, you can't watch eight or
37:50
Speaker 2: nine games on Sunday in a row. You cannot sit
37:52
Speaker 2: there as a fan if you're a fan, if you're
37:54
Speaker 2: a fan of one team, even if you're watching Red Zone,
37:56
Speaker 2: You're not going to see everything. And so I think
37:58
Speaker 2: just trying to be thoughtful about, Okay, what did you
38:00
Speaker 2: need to know what did you need to know about Sunday?
38:02
Speaker 2: What did you not see on Sunday? What was interesting
38:04
Speaker 2: on Sunday leads me to stuff that I think it's
38:07
Speaker 2: been pretty interesting for content. So I'm writing that I'm
38:10
Speaker 2: getting up a Monday. Last year I was doing Around
38:13
Speaker 2: the Horn on Mondays, which is no longer a show.
38:14
Speaker 2: So I'm not doing TV on Mondays, which is a
38:16
Speaker 2: little easier. But then Monday, during the day, I'm catching
38:19
Speaker 2: up at what I missed because I didn't get to
38:21
Speaker 2: see everything. I am watching the Sunday night game. I
38:23
Speaker 2: am watching clips from around the league. I'm you know,
38:26
Speaker 2: I might sit there and say, okay, I want to
38:28
Speaker 2: watch every third down. I want to watch every red
38:30
Speaker 2: zone play. I want to watch every explosive play that
38:33
Speaker 2: game ten or fifteen yards. I want to study who
38:36
Speaker 2: actually played the player participation data, just who was actually
38:39
Speaker 2: on the field, who got benched, who you know, who
38:41
Speaker 2: didn't play well as the game went along. And that's
38:43
Speaker 2: a process throughout the week. That is going to be Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
38:47
Speaker 2: That is, you know, if I have a spare half hour,
38:50
Speaker 2: I'm going to have to watch two teams third downs,
38:52
Speaker 2: that's watching the ALL twenty two from behind the quarterback,
38:55
Speaker 2: trying to see what actually happened on a play. Much
38:58
Speaker 2: easier from that angle that the class I mean Madden
39:01
Speaker 2: video game angle versus you know, the TV angle where
39:04
Speaker 2: you're not getting the safeties in the field, you're not
39:06
Speaker 2: getting to see the offensive line play because it kind
39:08
Speaker 2: of just looks like a jumbled mess if you're watching
39:10
Speaker 2: from the TV side, but just learning about, Okay, what
39:12
Speaker 2: actually happened, you know what worthy, what led to some
39:16
Speaker 2: of these plays happening, what led to a sack, what
39:18
Speaker 2: led to a big run, And you don't get to
39:21
Speaker 2: see that really, you know, it really is unique about football.
39:24
Speaker 2: It's not like with baseball. You know, it would be
39:27
Speaker 2: like if on the TV view of a baseball game
39:30
Speaker 2: you never got to see the outfield. You never got
39:32
Speaker 2: to see like what happened with defensive alignment or anything,
39:35
Speaker 2: never got to see, you know, how people were playing
39:37
Speaker 2: a hitter. It is. It is good for TV and
39:41
Speaker 2: in football. It is an incredible product on TV obviously,
39:43
Speaker 2: but there's just so much you miss without watching that
39:45
Speaker 2: stuff from behind the stanes at ALL twenty two. So
39:47
Speaker 2: I'm doing that during the week I'm doing my own
39:49
Speaker 2: podcast twice a week. I'm doing I did my podcast
39:51
Speaker 2: Monday night after the Monday night game, which I'm watching.
39:54
Speaker 2: But there's just a lot of you know, Sunday is
39:57
Speaker 2: very busy, but it is just the start. I mean,
39:59
Speaker 2: there was so much to learn, and you're constantly playing
40:02
Speaker 2: catch up because you know, like you said, it is
40:04
Speaker 2: a sprint. There's never a point during the year where
40:07
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, I've watched everything I need to watch.
40:09
Speaker 2: I am good. There's always more to see, always more
40:11
Speaker 2: to study, and those are opportunities to gain a competitive edge,
40:16
Speaker 2: you know. I mean, at the end of the day,
40:17
Speaker 2: like I'm a writer and I'm not winning anything, but
40:20
Speaker 2: I am trying to be smart. I'm trying to get
40:22
Speaker 2: people things that they can't get anywhere else, or learn
40:24
Speaker 2: things they don't they wouldn't learn anywhere else. And so
40:26
Speaker 2: the only way you can do that is, you know,
40:28
Speaker 2: with contacts and talking to people, but also then just
40:30
Speaker 2: sitting down doing the work, watching and figuring out what
40:32
Speaker 2: actually happened on.
40:33
Speaker 1: A Sunday and Bill you're delivering on that front two people,
40:37
Speaker 1: and for those who don't read your stuff on ESPN,
40:40
Speaker 1: it's exceptionally well written. It's extremely thoughtful. I also hear
40:44
Speaker 1: you asking Ryan and I for parenting tips here, and
40:47
Speaker 1: I'm going to just offer one. One is that one
40:51
Speaker 1: thing that I learned is when you're sleep deprived and
40:53
Speaker 1: you're trying to pacify a child, say from two to
40:56
Speaker 1: five in the morning, get some go to songs that
40:58
Speaker 1: you know. Mine were the Gap and the theme song
41:01
Speaker 1: to The Jeffersons. Feel free to use those if those
41:04
Speaker 1: help you in any capacity. I mysteriously all three of
41:08
Speaker 1: my kids know the theme song to the Jeffersons, having
41:10
Speaker 1: never watched the show, but it was just burnt into
41:12
Speaker 1: their brain when they were children. I Bill, we would
41:15
Speaker 1: be remiss to have you on and not have you
41:17
Speaker 1: weigh in on the bombshell trade that was made a
41:20
Speaker 1: week before the season started, Micah Parson's going to the
41:23
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers. We've had everyone from part owner or
41:26
Speaker 1: Scott Service of the Green Bay Packers, way In and
41:29
Speaker 1: former general manager Tom Telesco, Ryan and I have even
41:32
Speaker 1: weighed in. Skin weighed a local radio host in Dallas
41:36
Speaker 1: has given us the fan perspective, What is your analysis
41:39
Speaker 1: of this? Why did this trade happen when it did
41:42
Speaker 1: or some of the behind the scenes element and why
41:44
Speaker 1: did this work for both teams?
41:45
Speaker 2: Okay, so it was such a fascinating trade. I mean
41:48
Speaker 2: it is such a rarity, right, I mean talking about
41:53
Speaker 2: a player at a premium position who is a four
41:57
Speaker 2: years into what probably projects at this point to be
41:59
Speaker 2: a hall career. Like he's not one hundred percent lock
42:02
Speaker 2: to be a Hall of Famer, you know, if he
42:03
Speaker 2: gets hurt, if he has you know, a serious injury
42:05
Speaker 2: or something, if he falls off, it could happen. But
42:08
Speaker 2: we're talking about a guy where he's five seventy seventy
42:11
Speaker 2: five percent to be a Hall of Famer fifteen years
42:13
Speaker 2: from now at a premium position. Those guys don't hit
42:16
Speaker 2: the market very often. So what I found so interesting
42:20
Speaker 2: is that you had two teams really sort of go
42:22
Speaker 2: against what they're known for in this move. The Cowboys
42:27
Speaker 2: eight team that if you know anything about Jerry Jones,
42:29
Speaker 2: he's about accumulating star players. He always wants to get that,
42:32
Speaker 2: you know, that highest profile player. He wants to win
42:34
Speaker 2: the headlines. Maybe that's some of that nonsense, but I
42:38
Speaker 2: think there is a little bit of truth, like he
42:40
Speaker 2: wants to be the center of attention and so they're
42:42
Speaker 2: a very good drafting and developing team. If anything, they've
42:45
Speaker 2: been too aggressive signing their own players. They actually have
42:47
Speaker 2: had some contracts that haven't worked out because they have
42:50
Speaker 2: fallen in love with some of their own guys. But
42:52
Speaker 2: they don't let guys like this lead. Nobody does, but
42:55
Speaker 2: the Cowboys especially don't let guys like this leap. And
42:57
Speaker 2: then the Packers, you flip it. They're a very distinct
43:02
Speaker 2: franchise and how they operate. They're very sort of Leonardo
43:06
Speaker 2: DiCaprio esque, and that if you're over twenty seven or
43:09
Speaker 2: twenty eight, they don't want to hire you, they want
43:11
Speaker 2: to get rid of you, and so they will. They're
43:14
Speaker 2: very aggressive moving on from guys after their second contracts,
43:17
Speaker 2: a lot of players on rookie deals. They draft and
43:19
Speaker 2: develop really well, and they've been the youngest team in
43:21
Speaker 2: football each of the past couple of years because they
43:23
Speaker 2: really are dedicated to no, we're going to build through
43:25
Speaker 2: the draft, may add a free agent here or there,
43:28
Speaker 2: but like we are, our core is going to be
43:31
Speaker 2: guys we've brought through the organization and for first and
43:34
Speaker 2: second contracts, and so for them to go out and
43:36
Speaker 2: trade two first round picks to get Michael Parsons is
43:39
Speaker 2: kind of a shock because that's not eighteen that trades
43:41
Speaker 2: one first round pick typically, let alone two first round picks.
43:44
Speaker 2: But I do think there's a logic that makes sense
43:48
Speaker 2: for both sides. For the Cowboys, you know, this is
43:51
Speaker 2: a financial thing to me, and maybe it's not what
43:53
Speaker 2: Jerry Jones was thinking you're saying when he made the move.
43:57
Speaker 2: But number one, I think if you look at what
43:59
Speaker 2: the cow Boys do, there's a very big disconnect between
44:01
Speaker 2: what Jerry Jones says publicly and what the Cowboys have
44:04
Speaker 2: actually done privately, which I think hence towards Stephen Jones,
44:07
Speaker 2: his son, having more of a impact and emphasis on
44:10
Speaker 2: what they do on a football basis. Like Jerry Jones
44:13
Speaker 2: wants to go get star players, They've drafted offensive and
44:15
Speaker 2: defensive linemen like he used the last five years in
44:17
Speaker 2: the first round. That's not what Jerry Jones would do.
44:20
Speaker 2: If he wanted to go get a star play, you'd
44:21
Speaker 2: get the flashy running back or the flashy wide receiver.
44:25
Speaker 2: They have a big analytics department that they did not
44:27
Speaker 2: have four or five years ago, and they are making
44:29
Speaker 2: some decisions that are in line with what analytics would
44:32
Speaker 2: suggest they But what I think it comes down to
44:37
Speaker 2: for the Cowboys is they had Dak Prescott on a
44:40
Speaker 2: deal worth forty million dollars a year, Ceedee Lamb I
44:43
Speaker 2: think was making about five or six million dollars a year,
44:45
Speaker 2: and Micah Parson's on a rookie deal as well in
44:47
Speaker 2: the five six million dollars a year range. So those
44:49
Speaker 2: guys making, depending on how you do the math, probably
44:52
Speaker 2: fifty two fifty three million dollars a year. And now
44:55
Speaker 2: on their new contracts, Dak Prescott's making sixty million dollars
44:58
Speaker 2: a year, Cedee Lamb's making thirty four million dollars a year,
45:01
Speaker 2: and now Mike is making forty seven. So I can't
45:03
Speaker 2: do math in my head one hundred and forty. So
45:07
Speaker 2: basically the idea is this, if you're the Cowboys and
45:10
Speaker 2: you could not win a Super Bowl with those guys
45:12
Speaker 2: making fifty two fifty three million dollars a year, how
45:15
Speaker 2: are you going to do that? If they're making one
45:16
Speaker 2: hundred and forty million dollars a year. That is I
45:18
Speaker 2: think the part that they had to answer, and they
45:20
Speaker 2: had to come up with a solution for. And I
45:22
Speaker 2: don't know that they ever got there. You know, I
45:24
Speaker 2: think there was a maybe if they had drafted well
45:27
Speaker 2: in the prior to or three drafts after between the
45:29
Speaker 2: Parsons deal and having to pay these guys, maybe it
45:31
Speaker 2: would have been easier. If they'd had some great draft
45:33
Speaker 2: class they could say, Okay, we have six or seven
45:35
Speaker 2: guys and rookie deals we feel good about. I don't
45:37
Speaker 2: know that they do, and so they sort of, I think,
45:40
Speaker 2: got stuck in a situation where they had to kind
45:42
Speaker 2: of make a roster model work that hadn't they won
45:46
Speaker 2: a bunch of games, they'd won a playoff game, maybe
45:48
Speaker 2: they would have had things go right, maybe they would
45:49
Speaker 2: have had a great draft in twenty five or twenty
45:51
Speaker 2: six and made it work down the line. But they
45:53
Speaker 2: were going to have to make a roster work with
45:55
Speaker 2: three guys making such an incredibly high portion of their
45:59
Speaker 2: cap of their budget, and that was going to be
46:01
Speaker 2: difficult to do. Then you flip it at the packer's side,
46:04
Speaker 2: think you have Jordan Love making a lot of money,
46:06
Speaker 2: but they are It's probably unfair to call them like
46:09
Speaker 2: the the Tampa Bay Rays of football, but there is
46:13
Speaker 2: a real emphasis on like let's get our pre our guys.
46:15
Speaker 2: Let's get our rookie contract. Guys. We know we're gonna
46:18
Speaker 2: have that built in. We are very financially prudent about
46:23
Speaker 2: how we build our deals. There are a lot of
46:25
Speaker 2: their contracts, even their big contracts for free agents are
46:28
Speaker 2: you know, one year of guarantees and then we can
46:29
Speaker 2: get out of it after one season. They have a
46:32
Speaker 2: lot of flexibility, so they had a lot more ability
46:35
Speaker 2: I think, to go and say, okay, like we have
46:36
Speaker 2: those pieces in place, we have those you know, cost
46:39
Speaker 2: control talents around the superstar that we can go out
46:42
Speaker 2: and make sort of a big splurge for a player,
46:44
Speaker 2: thinking okay, this might be the guy who puts us
46:46
Speaker 2: over the top. So I feel like, even though I
46:50
Speaker 2: like the do the I like the Packers side of
46:53
Speaker 2: it a little more just because I think it is
46:54
Speaker 2: such a rare opportunity to get a player that you're
46:56
Speaker 2: not gonna be able to get in freegency and you're
46:58
Speaker 2: gonna hope, you're gonna pray maybe you have like a
47:01
Speaker 2: five percent chance of a first round pick turn against
47:04
Speaker 2: that kind of player. I do think it does make
47:07
Speaker 2: sense for both sides, and I do think that in
47:09
Speaker 2: the long run, I think we're gonna look at it.
47:10
Speaker 2: It's like we're gonna win, win, but certainly a thing
47:14
Speaker 2: where we can see why the Cowboys made this decision.
47:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, Bill fed and I have a commitment to you
47:19
Speaker 3: that if we're back with the team and there's somebody
47:21
Speaker 3: on staff who likes younger players, we're going to use
47:24
Speaker 3: a team Leo Nardo, DiCaprio, ESK and then give you
47:27
Speaker 3: credit for that. That's going to be prominently featured in
47:29
Speaker 3: the scouting meetings any room I'm in going forward. I
47:32
Speaker 3: love that term. But let's let's get back to the
47:35
Speaker 3: running back debate. You mentioned Saquon Barkley earlier, because as
47:38
Speaker 3: a fan of the NFL, look, I get the statistical
47:42
Speaker 3: argument that running backs break down, that they don't hold
47:45
Speaker 3: up as long they're not as valuable financially. But then
47:48
Speaker 3: I look at two teams in particular who have kind
47:50
Speaker 3: of gone counter trend to that, the Eagles with Kwan
47:53
Speaker 3: Barkley and then the Baltimore Ravens with Derrick Henry, and
47:57
Speaker 3: as a fan, I said, wait a minute, how do
47:58
Speaker 3: those teams, with the defenses and the quarterbacks they have
48:01
Speaker 3: and the infrastructure get those guys? So do you think
48:04
Speaker 3: maybe some of that has gone too far as far
48:06
Speaker 3: as to shift away from running backs, and you know,
48:09
Speaker 3: kind of the counter trend movement with those two teams
48:11
Speaker 3: in particular taking advantage of that potential over correction.
48:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean those are probably the most two of
48:18
Speaker 2: the three most analytically inclined organizations in the league. Like,
48:21
Speaker 2: those are the teams who for years would have told you, yeah,
48:24
Speaker 2: we don't think we shouls been money on running backs,
48:26
Speaker 2: like you know, we can, we can sort of, we
48:28
Speaker 2: can build through our offensive lines, we can build through
48:31
Speaker 2: our quarterbacks, like that's going to be a secondary tertiary
48:34
Speaker 2: piece for us. So for them to both go out
48:36
Speaker 2: and say, actually, this is totally wrong. We need to
48:38
Speaker 2: go out and invest these guys. And then, of course
48:40
Speaker 2: the incredible results they got last year I think speaks
48:43
Speaker 2: to you know how that sort of idea of Okay,
48:46
Speaker 2: running backs don't matter, running backs are overvalued is changing.
48:49
Speaker 2: And I think the reason why they were smart to
48:52
Speaker 2: be ahead of the curve and why I think it
48:54
Speaker 2: is fair to say it has gone too far in
48:56
Speaker 2: some ways is the prices have changed. If you look
49:00
Speaker 2: at running back contracts, the biggest contracts are still deal
49:04
Speaker 2: signed by Adrian Peterson fifteen years ago, a little maybe
49:08
Speaker 2: thirteen fourteen years ago at this point, but his contracts
49:10
Speaker 2: with the Vikings were the largest contracts signed by our
49:12
Speaker 2: running back if you adjust for the salary cap, which
49:16
Speaker 2: has gone up over one hundred percent over that timeframe.
49:19
Speaker 2: I mean running backs are making what seemed like a
49:23
Speaker 2: lot of money. Stecon Barkley I think was around twelve
49:25
Speaker 2: and a half million dollars a year. Derek Kenny would
49:27
Speaker 2: have been I think seven million for his first year
49:29
Speaker 2: last year. That's what marginal second third wide receivers are getting.
49:33
Speaker 2: And I mean no disrespect to the Diyami Browns of
49:36
Speaker 2: the world or the Gabe Davises of the world, but
49:39
Speaker 2: those guys do not move the needle the way a
49:41
Speaker 2: Sekwon Barkley does the way that a Derek Henry does.
49:44
Speaker 2: And the other factor is sort of the team fit,
49:48
Speaker 2: the qualitative elopment to all this, which is se Kwon
49:51
Speaker 2: Barkley was playing for a Giant's offense. He doesn't have
49:55
Speaker 2: a great quarterback, not have a great offensive line. He
49:57
Speaker 2: was the focal point of the offense. Derreic Henry same
50:00
Speaker 2: thing in Tennessee. Very bad quarterback play offensive line that
50:04
Speaker 2: I was really banged up. Just those guys were in
50:07
Speaker 2: terrible situations. And these two teams, the Eagles and the Ravens,
50:10
Speaker 2: were two of the most running back friendly spots in
50:13
Speaker 2: all of football. The Eagles have Gialen Hurts. We know,
50:15
Speaker 2: a mobile quarterback just creates some gravity for your running backs,
50:18
Speaker 2: and that is an opportunity for them. They'd be more efficient.
50:20
Speaker 2: They had the best offensive line in the league. Like
50:22
Speaker 2: they were in a position where he moved from the
50:26
Speaker 2: worst possible place to be, say Kwan Barkley, to the
50:28
Speaker 2: best possible place to be Sae Kwon Barkley just happened
50:31
Speaker 2: to be sadly for me as a Giants fan about
50:33
Speaker 2: two hours south and with the arch rivals of the
50:36
Speaker 2: New York Giants, and then with Derrek Henry moving to
50:38
Speaker 2: the Ravens, where you have Lamar Jackson, a very valuable
50:42
Speaker 2: and essential part of their run game, is going to
50:43
Speaker 2: make like easier for him in terms of having the
50:46
Speaker 2: focus on him. I mean, those those mobile quarterbacks changed
50:49
Speaker 2: the math for how defenses approach you in the run game.
50:52
Speaker 2: So they're facing one defender fewer than they would in
50:55
Speaker 2: an offense where they have a more traditional quarterback, say,
50:58
Speaker 2: such an opportunity to get you get a player or
51:00
Speaker 2: players who were undervalued at a position that had gone
51:04
Speaker 2: down financially when so many of the positions had gone
51:08
Speaker 2: up dramatically. And I think even if you can make
51:13
Speaker 2: the case that okay, well, having an average running back
51:16
Speaker 2: and paying that premium, that's probably not worth it. Like
51:18
Speaker 2: you can find there's more supply than demand for your
51:22
Speaker 2: average running backs. How often can you go out and
51:25
Speaker 2: get a twenty seven year old player who is the
51:28
Speaker 2: maybe the best player at his position in free agency
51:30
Speaker 2: and pay you know what you would have paid a
51:34
Speaker 2: mid tier player at the same position ten years earlier.
51:36
Speaker 2: That's just not an opportunity that I think was going
51:39
Speaker 2: to happen at edge rusher or wide receiver or offensive tackle.
51:42
Speaker 2: And so I think it was really smarter those teams
51:44
Speaker 2: to recognize, you know, okay, like, yes, the talent is
51:47
Speaker 2: still there and the price has changed dramatically, and maybe
51:50
Speaker 2: at the price from ten years ago when in they
51:51
Speaker 2: made sense, but at the price now, that's a really
51:53
Speaker 2: valuable opportunity for us. And I mean those are two
51:55
Speaker 2: of the best free agent signings teams make this pass
51:57
Speaker 2: off season.
52:00
Speaker 1: A number of things you've said have reminded me of
52:02
Speaker 1: this theory that we came up with when we were
52:05
Speaker 1: in Texas, which is, you do want to ground all
52:07
Speaker 1: your decisions in the data. You want to be as
52:10
Speaker 1: informed as you possibly can. But if you do believe
52:12
Speaker 1: that everyone has great data and analytics, then everyone's kind
52:16
Speaker 1: of shooting par, so to speak. And while you tend
52:20
Speaker 1: to not lose tournaments shooting par, you also maybe don't
52:23
Speaker 1: win tournaments shooting par. And so there are times where
52:26
Speaker 1: you have to take calculated risks and try to fly
52:29
Speaker 1: it over the water and get to the green in two.
52:32
Speaker 1: And there's a real risk associate with that. You can
52:34
Speaker 1: land in the water and you have to take a penalty.
52:36
Speaker 1: But if you get to the green and two, you're
52:38
Speaker 1: a head of teams. And when you trade two first
52:40
Speaker 1: round picks as Green Bay, you're taking a risk. You
52:43
Speaker 1: referenced earlier that the Jaguars did the same thing. That's
52:46
Speaker 1: obviously a real risk. They're trying to fly the water
52:48
Speaker 1: and get to the green. Well, so two are these
52:50
Speaker 1: two teams that are investing in aging running backs, which
52:53
Speaker 1: is a counter to every trend you see in football.
52:57
Speaker 1: Most of those don't work out. They have here, I'd
53:00
Speaker 1: like to just shift the topic to something that has
53:02
Speaker 1: become pressing in football recently, and I feel like this
53:05
Speaker 1: hasn't gotten as much airtime as it probably should. But
53:09
Speaker 1: there's a controversial story surrounding the Chicago Bears, and these
53:14
Speaker 1: things are terrible. We've talked about this in the past,
53:16
Speaker 1: Ryan and I have about leaks from within your group. Well,
53:20
Speaker 1: something was leaked recently reflecting the analysis that they did
53:24
Speaker 1: pre draft twenty twenty four when they had the first
53:26
Speaker 1: pick in the draft and they clearly were prioritizing quarterbacks
53:29
Speaker 1: and they were reviewing tape of all the eligible guys
53:32
Speaker 1: who were first round talents, Drake May's videos on the board,
53:36
Speaker 1: and one of the scouts is quoted as saying they
53:39
Speaker 1: made fun of him, they laughed, The GM left Drake
53:43
Speaker 1: May off the screen, then he cut the tape off.
53:46
Speaker 1: What is your assessment of that situation. It seems to
53:49
Speaker 1: me to be concerning at a number of different levels,
53:51
Speaker 1: and from a general manager's perspective, I'd love to hear
53:54
Speaker 1: Ryan's field too, Like when you hear that. My initial
53:57
Speaker 1: feeling is, first of all, it seems grossly unprofessional. But
53:59
Speaker 1: second early very concerning that people from our room are
54:03
Speaker 1: now advertising that publicly. It speaks to an undercurrent of
54:06
Speaker 1: cultural concerns that maybe much greater than this one clear
54:10
Speaker 1: mistake that was made within that room.
54:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, Tyler Dunn reported that story, and I'm you know,
54:18
Speaker 2: weren't there, so he can't say what the context was.
54:20
Speaker 2: Maybe it was a little different. I don't want to.
54:22
Speaker 2: I don't have any reason to think that Tyler is
54:24
Speaker 2: making it up. I don't think that's accurate story if
54:26
Speaker 2: that's what he was reporting. But I think it's fascinating, right,
54:30
Speaker 2: I mean, you know there is in that organization when
54:36
Speaker 2: you see their moves publicly, there has been an element
54:38
Speaker 2: of getting very attached to certain players. You know, they
54:41
Speaker 2: wanted to help justin fields a few years ago, Okay,
54:43
Speaker 2: nothing wrong with that. They went out and traded a
54:45
Speaker 2: second round piper Chase Paypole at the trade deadline, a
54:47
Speaker 2: guy who was buried on Pittsburgh's depth chart because they
54:50
Speaker 2: wanted to get back by now, like, what this guy
54:52
Speaker 2: is going to fix our team. He was not a
54:54
Speaker 2: good fix. He was terrible. Next year, the trade set
54:57
Speaker 2: round picked for Montes Wet. Well, we need a pass
54:59
Speaker 2: rusher we need to fix right now, even though there
55:01
Speaker 2: was a great crop of bage rushers coming out of
55:03
Speaker 2: free agency, and they maybe could have waited and got
55:05
Speaker 2: one of those guys, but they said, no, this is
55:07
Speaker 2: a guy we're stuck to. Once we kind of fell
55:10
Speaker 2: in love with this one player. We need to get him.
55:11
Speaker 2: There was no alternative. And then with the Caleb Williams situation,
55:17
Speaker 2: you know, nothing wrong with drafting Caleb Williams over Drake May.
55:19
Speaker 2: It's still too early to say which of those guys
55:21
Speaker 2: are going to work out. But it's not like they
55:23
Speaker 2: were watching a side went there own pick. They were
55:25
Speaker 2: watching a guy who went off the board very high
55:27
Speaker 2: to the New England Patriots. And so what I find
55:31
Speaker 2: so fascinating about it is, like you said, number one,
55:33
Speaker 2: what does it tell you about their culture that not
55:36
Speaker 2: only was this a normal thing that happened, but also
55:39
Speaker 2: that someone felt like they had to tell a reporter
55:41
Speaker 2: about it because it was so jarring and so unprofessional
55:45
Speaker 2: relative to what you should be doing. And then I
55:47
Speaker 2: think the question I have for you guys is, you know,
55:50
Speaker 2: even if we're not going through this extreme of laughing
55:53
Speaker 2: at another player's stock, clearly they wanted to believe Kayleb
55:57
Speaker 2: Williams was the best quarterback prospect, and they didn't want
56:00
Speaker 2: you believe that there was anyone else who is comparable,
56:02
Speaker 2: with Drake May being an example. And so when you
56:04
Speaker 2: guys are scouting players, when you're going through that pre
56:07
Speaker 2: draft process, you know, how do you balance the idea
56:10
Speaker 2: of falling in love with the guy you really like
56:11
Speaker 2: I think is going to be a superstar and then
56:13
Speaker 2: poking holes in that player or seeing alternatives and saying, Okay,
56:16
Speaker 2: well maybe this guy, even if we don't think he's
56:18
Speaker 2: as good, he can still work out, he can still
56:20
Speaker 2: be good. You know, you could still be a valuable player,
56:21
Speaker 2: maybe better than the guy we fall in love with.
56:23
Speaker 2: I just think that is something on the outside that
56:25
Speaker 2: I don't have to do, but I feel like inside
56:27
Speaker 2: team buildings is so fascinating to kind of balance that
56:29
Speaker 2: thing of you know, you spend months trying to figure
56:32
Speaker 2: out who you want to fall in love with, and
56:34
Speaker 2: then it's probably hard to poke holes or feel like
56:38
Speaker 2: maybe you are wrong before that process actually takes place
56:41
Speaker 2: in the draft actually occurs.
56:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think bill teams need to have a robust
56:45
Speaker 3: discussion and look at all sides of the issue. Even
56:48
Speaker 3: if you're certain somebody is the number one pick in
56:50
Speaker 3: the NBA, times are overwhelming favorites Victor women Yama recently
56:54
Speaker 3: comes to mind. But at least somebody on staff has
56:57
Speaker 3: to say, Hey, how's this not going to work? Or
56:59
Speaker 3: how's he just going to be pretty good but not great?
57:01
Speaker 3: Let's look at it that way. Is it the injury risk?
57:04
Speaker 3: Is it the fact that he's never played basketball in
57:06
Speaker 3: the US. And I'm not picking on Wemby. I think
57:09
Speaker 3: he's going to be an all time great player, but
57:10
Speaker 3: you do you need somebody with that perspective. And then
57:13
Speaker 3: somebody says, well, what if God forbid, something horrible happens
57:16
Speaker 3: between when we're having this debate and the actual draft,
57:19
Speaker 3: you know, some catastrophic health issue or car rack or
57:23
Speaker 3: whatever you know happens in life. So I think it's
57:26
Speaker 3: a lazy approach to just put all your eggs in
57:28
Speaker 3: one basket, so to speak, and not really beat it up,
57:30
Speaker 3: even if the decision seems obvious on its surface, because
57:33
Speaker 3: we've seen, especially in the NBA history of the NBA,
57:36
Speaker 3: there were decisions that seemed obvious and you look back
57:38
Speaker 3: and sign and says, oh, my goodness, how did that
57:40
Speaker 3: guy go number one? Anthony Bett, poor Anthony Metic gets
57:43
Speaker 3: beat up a lot, or how did that guy go
57:45
Speaker 3: outside the top ten? You know, number of examples there,
57:48
Speaker 3: Yannis Kawhi, Jokic, et cetera. Could go one obvious in hindsight,
57:52
Speaker 3: they certainly weren't obvious at the time. So I think
57:55
Speaker 3: that part of it is so important and fat. I
57:58
Speaker 3: want to get your perspective on it. But what I
58:00
Speaker 3: would say is if somebody in the draft room did
58:02
Speaker 3: say that that's BS, because there's no place for that,
58:06
Speaker 3: right and all of these things. You want to increase
58:09
Speaker 3: your degree of certainty and have it as high as
58:12
Speaker 3: it can possibly be, but nobody's one hundred per cent
58:14
Speaker 3: certain all the time. There's no possible way to be.
58:16
Speaker 3: We're dealing with human beings. So to kind of disparage
58:19
Speaker 3: Drake may or act like, you know, he's a joke,
58:21
Speaker 3: not an NFL player. We'll see how his career goes.
58:23
Speaker 3: It seems to me like he's off to at least
58:25
Speaker 3: a decent start, a pretty good start. I know some
58:27
Speaker 3: fans of the Patriots are excited about him, but I
58:29
Speaker 3: don't see any reason to take that approach and disparage
58:32
Speaker 3: a player, because look, we know in twenty twenty five
58:34
Speaker 3: these leagues the players turn over frequently, the staff turns
58:38
Speaker 3: over frequently. So if you're that kind of arrogant and
58:41
Speaker 3: dismissive boy, you better be right because either way, in
58:43
Speaker 3: my opinion, it's not a good look for the Bears
58:45
Speaker 3: franchise and Ryan Poles if he did indeed say that,
58:48
Speaker 3: because what's the upside for him in the franchise?
58:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Ryan, I think extremely well said. So I
58:53
Speaker 1: don't want to repeat what you said. I just want
58:55
Speaker 1: to add a few thoughts to this is I also think,
58:58
Speaker 1: you know, we aspire to create a forum where we
59:01
Speaker 1: have real substantive dialogue. When you disparage a player to
59:05
Speaker 1: that respect, like it doesn't open the door for that.
59:07
Speaker 1: Like now for somebody to raise their hand and say, well,
59:10
Speaker 1: wait a minute, I see it differently, and it sounds
59:11
Speaker 1: like some scout did actually do that. You know, like
59:14
Speaker 1: it's a real risk because now you think your job's
59:16
Speaker 1: a little bit at risk because you know you've now
59:18
Speaker 1: put the the person in a really jeopardy position to
59:21
Speaker 1: present their side of the story. I certainly have been
59:25
Speaker 1: in a lot of draft rooms of where you know,
59:27
Speaker 1: in baseball, we want to say such things as like
59:30
Speaker 1: this guy has no he's playing center field, but he
59:32
Speaker 1: has no chance to play center field at the next level,
59:34
Speaker 1: or he has no chance to play shortstop at the
59:37
Speaker 1: next level. And when that, when that is left unchecked,
59:40
Speaker 1: people now all a sudden just degrade the player. I've always
59:43
Speaker 1: tried to frame it dustly, just saying he has we
59:46
Speaker 1: have concerns about his ability to play center field today,
59:49
Speaker 1: or we don't know if he can throw a curveball yet.
59:52
Speaker 1: But like, that's where our coaches need to engage and
59:55
Speaker 1: try to get the best out of this player. What
59:57
Speaker 1: we don't know what the future holds, Like there are
1:00:00
Speaker 1: people who played major league baseball who do not look
1:00:02
Speaker 1: the part, who do play shortstop, who do play centerfield,
1:00:05
Speaker 1: who do catch. So all we know is that maybe
1:00:07
Speaker 1: he isn't doesn't have the talents or skills to do
1:00:10
Speaker 1: it yet, but we don't know if he never will.
1:00:13
Speaker 1: And once we make it a definitive statement, I think
1:00:15
Speaker 1: it really closes off those conversations, and that's when we
1:00:18
Speaker 1: start making poor decisions. And I think honestly, that's where
1:00:21
Speaker 1: owners should be very concerned about a decision making when
1:00:24
Speaker 1: we're cleaving off portions of the field and not rationally
1:00:27
Speaker 1: discussing their talents, but emotionally assigning and ascribing pejoratives to
1:00:32
Speaker 1: these players such that they now get diminished in the
1:00:35
Speaker 1: room and nobody feels comfortable standing up for them.
1:00:37
Speaker 2: Yeah. And I think the other thing I would say
1:00:39
Speaker 2: at that that you brought up that really resonated with me.
1:00:41
Speaker 2: It's this idea of you should want people who disagree
1:00:45
Speaker 2: with you, right, Like I understand, Yes, in football, you
1:00:49
Speaker 2: want scouts who are going to recognize where players players
1:00:52
Speaker 2: are bad. But like history tells us, we know the
1:00:54
Speaker 2: NFL draft is more of a crapshoot than anything else.
1:00:56
Speaker 2: Once you adjust for draft position, it is it is chaos.
1:01:00
Speaker 2: And there's so many factors that go into that. It's
1:01:01
Speaker 2: not that scouts don't matter, that they're not good, but
1:01:04
Speaker 2: you know, teams turn over their personnel, they change their
1:01:06
Speaker 2: styles of play, they you know, injuries are attrition such
1:01:09
Speaker 2: an incredibly valuable thing. Teams get stuck on draft position
1:01:13
Speaker 2: and so players maybe are not the best players play
1:01:15
Speaker 2: for longer. It's not that that process doesn't matter, it does,
1:01:20
Speaker 2: But I think you have to be thoughtful enough to say, Okay, like, yes,
1:01:25
Speaker 2: I think Cale Williams is the best player in this draft.
1:01:27
Speaker 2: We're going to take him. Nothing wrong with that. Take
1:01:29
Speaker 2: the guy you like, of course, But I think if
1:01:32
Speaker 2: you're so dismissive of the idea that a player is
1:01:34
Speaker 2: going to go in the top five, is not even
1:01:35
Speaker 2: worth watching on tape. Er, We're not even worth giving
1:01:38
Speaker 2: the benefit of the doubts to talk about with respect.
1:01:41
Speaker 2: And most of the people in the room are laughing
1:01:43
Speaker 2: with you and agree with you. There's a group think
1:01:45
Speaker 2: elements to that, right, Like, you know, I think you're
1:01:47
Speaker 2: going to end up with the players who you the
1:01:50
Speaker 2: GM like, And you might have the best taste of
1:01:52
Speaker 2: energym in history, but history tells us that you're not
1:01:55
Speaker 2: going to be able to do it. Even if you're
1:01:56
Speaker 2: real Belichick, You're not going to be able to draft
1:01:58
Speaker 2: guys consistently at a high level. So you want different perspectives,
1:02:01
Speaker 2: you want different viewpoints. A lot of people who are
1:02:03
Speaker 2: going to actually do their job watch tape and say, Okay,
1:02:06
Speaker 2: you don't have to like him, this is why I
1:02:08
Speaker 2: like him. We don't have to take him. But like,
1:02:10
Speaker 2: let's move on and let's just say, okay, you know,
1:02:12
Speaker 2: let's get that perspective because you might have a blind
1:02:14
Speaker 2: sponge GM not. You know, even if you're a you're
1:02:17
Speaker 2: a really good scout and you get run into that role,
1:02:19
Speaker 2: there's going to be positions you don't ally rate as well.
1:02:21
Speaker 2: There's going to be, you know, maybe some biases you
1:02:23
Speaker 2: have in terms of things that have worked in the past.
1:02:25
Speaker 2: Having those different perspectives is so valuable. And I think
1:02:27
Speaker 2: if you're a Bears fan or really a Bears employee,
1:02:31
Speaker 2: I feel like that has to be so discouraging to
1:02:33
Speaker 2: feel like, you know, if you don't agree very directly
1:02:37
Speaker 2: with what the general manager thinks, you're going to be
1:02:39
Speaker 2: laughed out of the room.
1:02:40
Speaker 3: Bill that and I feel we actually did have the
1:02:42
Speaker 3: best perspective and evaluation ability of any general manager in
1:02:45
Speaker 3: the history of our sport. In fact, as we look
1:02:47
Speaker 3: back on our ten years, it was the staff and
1:02:49
Speaker 3: the owner. If any mistakes were may it was their
1:02:51
Speaker 3: fault in any of the credit, you know, for the
1:02:53
Speaker 3: good stuff that goes to us. All joking aside, One
1:02:57
Speaker 3: of the things that I want to talk to you
1:02:58
Speaker 3: about are your kind of thoughts on fourth downs and
1:03:03
Speaker 3: NFL teams going for it on fourth down. I know
1:03:05
Speaker 3: you've been at the forefront of that movement as a fan.
1:03:08
Speaker 3: It seems like it's being embraced more. But then reading
1:03:11
Speaker 3: your column this week, you talked about how the Ravens
1:03:14
Speaker 3: and John harbar our team that usually goes for it
1:03:16
Speaker 3: on fourth down and the Numbers said in Buffalo on
1:03:18
Speaker 3: Sunday night they should go for it on fourth down,
1:03:20
Speaker 3: and they didn't, and they lost the game when Josh
1:03:22
Speaker 3: Allen and the Bills came back. So take us inside
1:03:26
Speaker 3: kind of your the evolution of your thoughts and why,
1:03:28
Speaker 3: especially initially, you were so passionate the teams should go
1:03:31
Speaker 3: for it more on fourth and short.
1:03:33
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I don't know if you guys remember
1:03:36
Speaker 2: the Patriots Colts game from two thousand and eight or
1:03:39
Speaker 2: two thousand and nine where they Colts are out of timeouts,
1:03:42
Speaker 2: the Pagagtriich are facing a fourth and two. They have
1:03:45
Speaker 2: Tom Brady, the best quarterback in the history of the
1:03:47
Speaker 2: National Football League. The guy on the other side of
1:03:49
Speaker 2: the field is another Hall of Famer in Peyton Manning.
1:03:51
Speaker 2: And they went forward and fourth and two and didn't
1:03:53
Speaker 2: get it, And it was like it was like the
1:03:55
Speaker 2: world that ended it was like national news, like, oh
1:03:58
Speaker 2: my god, Bill Belichick went forward fourth and two with
1:04:01
Speaker 2: ninety seconds left on his own side of the field
1:04:03
Speaker 2: when that would have won them the game, and it
1:04:05
Speaker 2: was you know, it was such a crazy situation. And
1:04:09
Speaker 2: now that has changed, Like the idea of you know,
1:04:13
Speaker 2: a team going forward and fourth and one, now that's
1:04:15
Speaker 2: the norm. Fourth and two, that's the norm. There's still
1:04:19
Speaker 2: situations where I think the numbers would say teams are
1:04:20
Speaker 2: too conservative or they are aligned too much with you know,
1:04:24
Speaker 2: what history tells us. I think even Mike McDonald, the
1:04:27
Speaker 2: Seahawks coach, you know, he actually did a really good job.
1:04:30
Speaker 2: I thought of explaining his thought process, even if I
1:04:31
Speaker 2: don't necessarily agree with it. But they had a fourth
1:04:34
Speaker 2: down in the tie game earlier or in Week one
1:04:37
Speaker 2: where they decided to kick a field goal to take
1:04:39
Speaker 2: the lead as opposed to holding onto the football ended
1:04:41
Speaker 2: up losing, and he said, well, you know, our model
1:04:43
Speaker 2: said we should go for it. But here were some
1:04:45
Speaker 2: of the factors for why I thought the model was wrong,
1:04:47
Speaker 2: which I don't know. I think the model in tap
1:04:49
Speaker 2: sides ont of the things he said, but that's a
1:04:50
Speaker 2: different story. But basically, you know, I think we had
1:04:54
Speaker 2: objective evidence saying teams are leaving opportunities on the table
1:04:58
Speaker 2: by not going forward and fourth and one fourth to
1:05:01
Speaker 2: that they're by by being conservative, by by building their
1:05:05
Speaker 2: ideas of what to do in those situations based on
1:05:08
Speaker 2: the past, based on history, based on what they did
1:05:10
Speaker 2: growing up. We have pretty strong empirical evidence that is false.
1:05:14
Speaker 2: And so it really stuck with the Carolina Panthers, the
1:05:18
Speaker 2: Ron Rivera era Carolina Panthers, which was a team I
1:05:21
Speaker 2: was writing about regularly at Grantland, which lost a ton
1:05:23
Speaker 2: of one score games and even beyond the numbers, And
1:05:26
Speaker 2: I think this is matters a lot when it comes
1:05:27
Speaker 2: to doing these evaluations. They if there was any team
1:05:31
Speaker 2: built to be great on fourth and short, it was
1:05:33
Speaker 2: the Carolina Panthers. They had Cam Newton who they were
1:05:35
Speaker 2: very comfortable using in the run game in a way
1:05:37
Speaker 2: that they used. No other team used their quarterback at
1:05:39
Speaker 2: that point. Maybe Michael Vick would have been the exception,
1:05:41
Speaker 2: but they were very comfortable with Cam Newton. They had
1:05:43
Speaker 2: a great run game, they were very good, and short
1:05:45
Speaker 2: yardage they loved. They would love to run on third
1:05:47
Speaker 2: and one, third and two, but then fourth and one
1:05:48
Speaker 2: wold come up and Ron Vera would say, oh, well,
1:05:50
Speaker 2: we can't stand in fourth and one. They were losing games,
1:05:54
Speaker 2: and then they started to go forward and fourth down
1:05:55
Speaker 2: and they started winning games. And it was not that
1:05:57
Speaker 2: easy of a correlation. They didn't suddenly become a twelve
1:06:00
Speaker 2: win team because I started going forward on fourth down,
1:06:03
Speaker 2: but they did get better, and so you sort of
1:06:05
Speaker 2: would have these little things pop up. Our teams would
1:06:07
Speaker 2: be more aggressive in situations, and then I don't think
1:06:09
Speaker 2: that would change everyone's perspective. But I do think the
1:06:14
Speaker 2: NFL is very much a we don't want to get
1:06:17
Speaker 2: left behind league, And I think once there's a proof
1:06:19
Speaker 2: of concept and something works in one place or two
1:06:22
Speaker 2: places or three places, once you have for example, the
1:06:25
Speaker 2: Eagles go forward on fourth and one against the Patriots
1:06:29
Speaker 2: and the Super Bowl and they throw a touchdown pass
1:06:31
Speaker 2: to Nick Foles, their backup quarterback, Like I think that
1:06:35
Speaker 2: barrier of oh, we're gonna get in trouble. Oh, our
1:06:39
Speaker 2: owner is going to be mad at us. Oh the
1:06:40
Speaker 2: fans are going to be mad at us. Like you
1:06:42
Speaker 2: see if you watch an NFL game on Sunday and
1:06:44
Speaker 2: fans and fans feel like you're not going for it
1:06:48
Speaker 2: in a situation where you should be going for it.
1:06:51
Speaker 2: They get booed. You don't see the go for it,
1:06:53
Speaker 2: get booed, You don't see the aggressive decision, get bood
1:06:56
Speaker 2: You see the conservative decision, get booed. And I think
1:07:00
Speaker 2: outside of the building, from a fan perspective, I think, honestly,
1:07:03
Speaker 2: and this is kind of silly to save it, It's true.
1:07:05
Speaker 2: I think people growing up playing Madden and being aggressive
1:07:07
Speaker 2: on fourth down and Madden not being such a ubiquitous
1:07:10
Speaker 2: thing for NFL fans, I think made it more comfortable
1:07:13
Speaker 2: and more aggressive that I think there was a generational
1:07:15
Speaker 2: divide between maybe some of the younger people in the
1:07:16
Speaker 2: league now being more aggressive doing that stuff, coaches being
1:07:19
Speaker 2: more comfortable doing that stuff now if they grew up,
1:07:21
Speaker 2: you know, playing video games and actually getting those reps
1:07:23
Speaker 2: with being a coach making decisions on fourth down, versus
1:07:27
Speaker 2: maybe the older coaches who were not doing that. And
1:07:29
Speaker 2: then I think from a player perspective, I think there
1:07:34
Speaker 2: was this idea that, oh, if we are aggressive on
1:07:36
Speaker 2: fourth down, our players are going to dislike. Our players
1:07:39
Speaker 2: are going to be furious, they're going to immutiny. They're
1:07:40
Speaker 2: going to think that you don't know what you're doing.
1:07:42
Speaker 2: We've seen there are exceptions. Players get upset when you
1:07:45
Speaker 2: don't win no matter what you do. But we've seen,
1:07:47
Speaker 2: you know, offenses, quarterbacks, offensive linemen say oh yeah, we
1:07:51
Speaker 2: should do that, like trust us, leaning to us, let
1:07:53
Speaker 2: us get that yard for you, let us do that,
1:07:55
Speaker 2: as opposed to, you know, just punching the ball off
1:07:57
Speaker 2: and saying, okay, we'll figure it out later. Well, let
1:07:59
Speaker 2: the defense minute. And I think that's been something that's
1:08:03
Speaker 2: kind of been a barrier that disappeared because I think
1:08:06
Speaker 2: coaches have seen I don't have anything to be scared of,
1:08:09
Speaker 2: like we might not get it, we might lose, but
1:08:12
Speaker 2: I don't need to be scared of that. And so
1:08:14
Speaker 2: I feel like that conversation has shifted to dramatically now
1:08:16
Speaker 2: that I think a lot of the low hanging fruit
1:08:19
Speaker 2: that was there when I first started writing at the
1:08:20
Speaker 2: NFL fifteen years years ago, that stuff's not there anymore.
1:08:23
Speaker 2: Like if you're not going forward and fourth and one
1:08:25
Speaker 2: on the opposing side of the field, you're behind the
1:08:27
Speaker 2: curve now when you would have been ahead of the
1:08:29
Speaker 2: curve fifteen years ago. And so I think for teams
1:08:31
Speaker 2: now it's more a question of when can we believe
1:08:33
Speaker 2: regressive in the right situation, When can we what can
1:08:37
Speaker 2: we do to take the data and these models we've built,
1:08:39
Speaker 2: and I think every team has a fourth down model
1:08:41
Speaker 2: at this point and actually apply it to our team
1:08:45
Speaker 2: to what we do best. And I think that's what
1:08:46
Speaker 2: made the Ravens thing so frustrating, is that they had
1:08:52
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson and Derek Henering in their backfield to incredible
1:08:55
Speaker 2: runners who had been great running the football in that
1:08:59
Speaker 2: very specific game. The Bills are a very light defense.
1:09:02
Speaker 2: They don't are not typically very good in short gardage
1:09:04
Speaker 2: against the run. And you know, maybe it was that
1:09:08
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson had cramps because he had said after the game,
1:09:10
Speaker 2: I'm third down. I wasn't feeling that great. They could
1:09:12
Speaker 2: have called the time out, maybe got him some fluid
1:09:14
Speaker 2: scy if that would have got you know, made him
1:09:15
Speaker 2: in a better situation. They could have just given the
1:09:17
Speaker 2: ball to Peric Henry, who's fantastic. But this idea of okay, well,
1:09:22
Speaker 2: the numbers in the past said everything was too conservative.
1:09:24
Speaker 2: Now it's much closer to teams are getting to where
1:09:27
Speaker 2: they need to be. But I do think you're having
1:09:28
Speaker 2: this kind of push coaches to be a little more
1:09:30
Speaker 2: aggressive situations where they don't want to be. I think
1:09:33
Speaker 2: the fourth and one barrier is gone, That is over.
1:09:35
Speaker 2: But I think now teams are finding advantages and maybe
1:09:38
Speaker 2: leaning into their personnel, leaning into what they do best,
1:09:40
Speaker 2: and then being aggressive in situations where the numbers say, hey,
1:09:43
Speaker 2: maybe you don't have to be aggressive. I think if
1:09:45
Speaker 2: you're the Ravens and you're a great run team where
1:09:47
Speaker 2: the Eagles and you're a great run team, you should
1:09:49
Speaker 2: be going for it and fourth down every time because
1:09:50
Speaker 2: you do have a great run defense. But maybe for
1:09:53
Speaker 2: a team that doesn't have a great running offense, maybe
1:09:55
Speaker 2: it's not quite as clear. So I think we're at
1:09:56
Speaker 2: a point now where it's not as much of a
1:09:58
Speaker 2: binary thing as it would have been to fifteen years ago.
1:10:01
Speaker 1: Bill, it's awesome stuff. It's ironic a little bit that
1:10:04
Speaker 1: we're talking about writing the old veteran running backs. These
1:10:08
Speaker 1: aren't the spry leg guys, but those are the guys
1:10:10
Speaker 1: that we want to have the ball in their hands
1:10:12
Speaker 1: at the end. Bill, thank you so much for coming on.
1:10:15
Speaker 1: This has been wonderful stuff. Your analysis is so valued,
1:10:19
Speaker 1: Your writing skills are exceptional. We really appreciate you coming on.
1:10:22
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us here on Rosters to Rings.
1:10:25
Speaker 2: Oh anytime, guys. I certainly feel like I would learn
1:10:31
Speaker 2: a lot more from talking to you than you guys
1:10:33
Speaker 2: talking to me. But hopefully the listener's got a mix
1:10:36
Speaker 2: of both when during the course of the podcast.
1:10:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, we really enjoyed it. Bill, thanks again for joining us.
1:10:42
Speaker 3: He is Dad Levine. He is Bill Barnwell with a
1:10:44
Speaker 3: Leonardo DiCaprio esque performance today. I am Ryan McDonough. Join
1:10:48
Speaker 3: us next week and every week right here on Rosters
1:10:51
Speaker 3: the Rings.
1:10:57
Speaker 1: Please join me host Dad Levine and McDonough and other
1:11:01
Speaker 1: general managers every week for Roster Syringes on Apple, Spotify,
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Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts.