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Is it a temporary buffer or something more permanent · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: Israel's military says it has killed around seven hundred has
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  Speaker 1: Bala fighters since launching operations in Lebanon in response to
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  Speaker 1: rockets fired by the Iran backed group. Israeli troops are
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  Speaker 1: operating in southern Lebanon, where one soldier was reported killed
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  Speaker 1: on Thursday. Israel says it needs to establish a zone
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  Speaker 1: of control in the depopulated south in order to shield
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  Speaker 1: its northern communities, which have faced daily rocket attacks. Israel
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  Speaker 1: has ordered all Lebanese civilians to leave the area south
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  Speaker 1: of the Latani River. Around a million Lebanese have been
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  Speaker 1: displaced by the fighting. Isid say he is a senior
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  Speaker 1: fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
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  Speaker 1: in Beirut. Welcome to DW. What's your assessment of Israel's
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  Speaker 1: real intentions in southern Lebanon. Is this a temporary buffer
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  Speaker 1: or something more permanent.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think the main goal here is to keep
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  Speaker 2: up the pressure on the Lebanese government and army to
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  Speaker 2: take forceful action against Hezbela, to disarm it by force,
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  Speaker 2: in other words, and failing that, to inflict such severe
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  Speaker 2: suffering on the civilian population across Lebanon generally, but also
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  Speaker 2: in particular the Shia community, which is the base, the
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  Speaker 2: support base of Hesbullah, to keep exerting pressure, keep ratching
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  Speaker 2: it up until there is movement, until the Lebanese government
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  Speaker 2: and army and or other Lebanese communities start to forcibly
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  Speaker 2: disarm Hesbelah. And so in that sense, the proposed buffer
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  Speaker 2: zone South Lebanon I see as part of a political
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  Speaker 2: strategy of increasing pressure. It is not so far at
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  Speaker 2: least feasible or realistic. Militarily, the Israelis have barely crossed
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  Speaker 2: the border in a few points so far. On the ground,
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  Speaker 2: they can't maintain an actual security zone of such a
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  Speaker 2: size from the air, and in any case, as far
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  Speaker 2: as we understand, Hesbellah is mostly firing rockets from north
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  Speaker 2: of the security zone anyway. And so Israeli occupation of
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  Speaker 2: this area is designed, I think, entirely to maximize political pressure.
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  Speaker 1: Right, And is that determination to maximize the political pressure
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  Speaker 1: on the Lebanese government on Hesblah because you because you
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  Speaker 1: believe that the Israelis, believe that the Lebanese government is
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  Speaker 1: not acting in good faith when it has said that
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  Speaker 1: it will do what it can against Hezbollah.
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  Speaker 2: No, I think Israel this time around is seeking more
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  Speaker 2: maximalist aims. I in fact think that it isn't satisfied
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  Speaker 2: with disarming Hezbellah. It wants Hesbellah dismantled, dissolved entirely as
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  Speaker 2: a political movement, even if it were to give up
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  Speaker 2: its weapons. But Israel basically can't achieve this goal on
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  Speaker 2: its own, and therefore is seeking to coerce Lebanese parties
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  Speaker 2: into doing this job. Let's keep get a bit of
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  Speaker 2: context here, a bit of historical context. Israel first pursued
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  Speaker 2: the strategy in nineteen sixty nine, nearly sixty years ago,
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  Speaker 2: when it was facing Palestinian guerrillas of the Palestine Liberation
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  Speaker 2: Organization operating from South Lebanon, and Israel at that time
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  Speaker 2: launched what it called an active defense policy of deliberately
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  Speaker 2: striking civilians in South Lebanon to drive a massive flow
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  Speaker 2: of refugees to the capital Bay route so as to
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  Speaker 2: exert pressure on the central government to crack down on
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  Speaker 2: the PLO and end its guerrilla sanctuary in the south
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  Speaker 2: of the country. So we're seeing a replay of that
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  Speaker 2: exact same strategy. Israel has been pursuing punishment of Lebanon
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  Speaker 2: for nearly sixty years. And ultimately all this, of course,
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  Speaker 2: is because the Israeli government in the meantime is moving
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  Speaker 2: almost formally but certainly very systematically to annexing the West
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  Speaker 2: Bank and the East Judisalem of the occupied Palestinian territory.
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  Speaker 2: So you know, this is not just about Lebanon, this
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  Speaker 2: is not just about it about Hezbollah.
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  Speaker 1: It's of a piece, Israel is effectively insulating itself on
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  Speaker 1: as many fronts as it can. And you mentioned the
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  Speaker 1: historical context, Well, what do we learn from back then
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  Speaker 1: that we can apply to today? Was it successful? Was
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  Speaker 1: that policy successful then? Will it be successful now?
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  Speaker 2: Of course, these are different times. Israel today has American
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  Speaker 2: backing of a type that never enjoyed in the past,
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  Speaker 2: an administration that has now gone to war with Iran
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  Speaker 2: basically at the behest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Ndaniahu
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  Speaker 2: so now in Lebanon. In the past, when Israel pursued
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  Speaker 2: this kind of military strategy of producing political outcomes through
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  Speaker 2: brutal military means in the early nineteen seventies, this led
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  Speaker 2: to the Civil War in Lebanon, which ended the domination
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  Speaker 2: of the Christian Maronite community that to some degree was
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  Speaker 2: open to having peace with Israel basically, so there was
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  Speaker 2: a reverse result to Israeli action. When Israel went in
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  Speaker 2: again in nineteen eighty two and occupied something like forty
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  Speaker 2: percent of the entire country for about twenty years, what
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  Speaker 2: it did was to trigger the birth of Hasbelah, and
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  Speaker 2: eventually Israel had to retreat under Hasbela attacks. So there
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  Speaker 2: is a risk, of course that if Israel does actually
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  Speaker 2: move troops in on the ground, and it is basically
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  Speaker 2: expanding its physical occupation of Arab territory, it'll be very
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  Speaker 2: hard to pull out of that for Israel on the
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  Speaker 2: one side, But again, the goals here are political. It
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  Speaker 2: wants to reshape the political system of Lebanon. It wants
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  Speaker 2: to produce new kinds of political arrangements inside Lebanon, and
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  Speaker 2: this is something it tried in nineteen eighty two under
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  Speaker 2: then Defense Minister Ariel Sharon, and it failed miserably. Now
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  Speaker 2: there's maybe a better chance in the sense that has
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  Speaker 2: well as more isolated inside Lebanon, there's far more desire
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  Speaker 2: among the Lebanese to end this duality of having an
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  Speaker 2: army on the one side and also an armed militia,
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  Speaker 2: which is Hasbola on the other. At the same time,
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  Speaker 2: if Israel exerts too much force, it could end up
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  Speaker 2: simply breaking the system, collapsing the government, splitting the Lebanese army,
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  Speaker 2: or you know, even we're sort of pushing other Lebanese
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  Speaker 2: communities into a civil war that they cannot actually win.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, this is the approach to that Israel seems
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  Speaker 2: to be taking an Iran as well, that if they
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  Speaker 2: can't get the regime they want, then they prefer to
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  Speaker 2: collapse the regime. There are differences, but it's basically about
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  Speaker 2: Israel seeking it's feeling under this far right government that
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  Speaker 2: it has the opportunity to either reshape its regional environment
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  Speaker 2: or to bring it down and in either case leave
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  Speaker 2: itself dominant.
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  Speaker 1: And what of has Bella itself? Its leadership has been decimated,
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  Speaker 1: even the Lebanese government has turned against it. Is it
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  Speaker 1: now actively trying to pursue its own political and military
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  Speaker 1: objectives or is it just trying to survive.
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  Speaker 2: As well as main aim is to survive as an
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  Speaker 2: armed force and right, And you're totally right in saying
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  Speaker 2: that it was. Its leadership was decimated, It lost a
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  Speaker 2: big chunk of its Veteran Officer Corps in twenty twenty
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  Speaker 2: four in its war with Israel, and it's I think
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  Speaker 2: there must be a really big question facing as well
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  Speaker 2: as leadership today, or at least what once the war
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  Speaker 2: is ended, what is its long term plan. It has
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  Speaker 2: to come to terms with the rest of Lebanon and
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  Speaker 2: come out with a different kind of arrangement. But for
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  Speaker 2: now it's certainly fighting for survival. And I think the
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  Speaker 2: key here is that Hesballah will keep on fighting, certainly
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  Speaker 2: so long as Iran keeps on fighting. And Iran may
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  Speaker 2: well seek as part of any deal to end the
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  Speaker 2: war with the United States administration, it will seek an
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  Speaker 2: end to the war in Lebanon as well, which therefore
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  Speaker 2: would leave Hesbella maybe battered, but still alive. So you know,
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  Speaker 2: I think Hesbella's fate and outcome are very closely tied
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  Speaker 2: to the outcome of the war in Iran.
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  Speaker 1: Good talking to you, thanks for joining us at you
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  Speaker 1: see seig from the Malcolm hk Khani Middle East Center
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  Speaker 1: in Beirut.