Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 134 - 10/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 134 - 10/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 134 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Friday. The weekend is upon us.
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The work week is wrapping up and you know what that means.
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We got a lot to get to as we look toward the weekend.
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And I have a bunch of sweats for you guys today and going to give
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you my final best bet card going into the weekend for today.
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I'm looking at two bets overall. I know there's a big slate of
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college football here tonight at a couple leans, but only one
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game in particular really checked off all the boxes for
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me. So I do have a dog getting some
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points. Contrarian with some sharp game
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day buyback in a prime time spot and then also one play in the
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WNBA. We're in the playoffs, so
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postseason sweat here. I noticed a home team getting a
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very sharp line move with a good bet split and a really good
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historical edge when it comes to these home favorites in the
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postseason. So hopefully chalk will help us
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out with this one. So 1 college football, 1 WNBA
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for today and then majority the pod will be doing some homework
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and finalizing our card for the weekend.
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So I have that's right, the return of biting UFC.
1:34
That's UFC 307 in Salt Lake City and I found a fighter or biter
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as I like to call them, with a very sharp line move, a
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fantastic low bets, higher dollars bet split and a massive
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youth advantage. So stay tuned for that.
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If you want to sweat a UFC, play with me on Saturday.
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And then final card here for college and NFLI have 4 college
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football games, three of which were already in pocket.
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Couple of them you can still get the good number here.
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The triggering #1 is moving. So I hope you got the hook while
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we talked about it earlier this week.
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And then final one here is going to be a money line play where I
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think you're going to get the best money line price right now.
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And looking toward the NFL, another four pack here,
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including some fading of trendy dogs.
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I got to play on the Minnesota and New York International game,
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which is 9:30 AM on Sunday. And then there's another bet
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here that I really didn't have my eye on all week.
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And then I noticed a big flip. So I'm going to take advantage
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hopefully of this line move in a game where we're super
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contrarian and we're also taking advantage of a team with a lot
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of injuries that just came out today.
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So overall guys, 2 pack tonight, 1 college football, 1 WNBA, and
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then I guess a nine pack I can call it for this weekend, one
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UFC for college football and four NFL plays.
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Now looking back to our last night guys, OMG, the Atlanta
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Falcons an incredible sweat. I don't know what it is about
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the Falcons. I feel like I bet on them quite
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a bit and they've been pretty decent to us.
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I know we had that great hit that was at Philly when they
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came back and won. They let me down against the
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Chiefs when that was a prime time game.
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But last night, looking at fading a trendy dog, it wasn't
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easy. But the Falcons came through.
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They were down for much of that game, was back and forth.
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They actually look like they were going to blow it because
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they had a great turnover. And then they went three and out
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and went for on 4th down like an idiot, which I didn't understand
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was like 4th and 15. Luckily, though, they had three
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timeouts, got it back, had a great kick there.
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Young Hoku who missed a couple earlier, forced overtime and
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then an OT 45 yard. Awesome move by a guy I'd never
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heard of, Hodge, who came in because Drake London was hurt.
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So a walk off winner there with Atlanta, but not just the
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winner, Atlanta. Why do we play Atlanta?
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Public is on Tampa Bay. Early move was Tampa Bay, but
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late game day action went back to Atlanta and money landing
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short favorites. That came through for us with
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the Falcons. It was a good game because we
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doubled up. We also got our Kirk Cousins
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over. Remember passing yards over 2/29
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and 1/2 was 228 and a half, 2/29 and 1/2.
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I had some people tweet me that I think it closed 235.
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So maybe there's some ASG steam in the market to move that
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number up. But either way, it doesn't
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matter what you got. He passed for over 500 yards, so
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it was great to see a good rhythm edge there.
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They're predicting closer to 260.
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So we got the Cousins over. We got the Falcons.
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Unfortunately, though, my heart was ripped out and danced to the
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beat because after I played our softball game last night, which
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we won one and O we went out to a bar in in Somerville and
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wouldn't you know it, I had the Falcons on one TV and I had the
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Milwaukee Brewers on the other and it's a nothing, nothing
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game. We got to the bar.
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I don't know, it was like the 5th or 6th inning.
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I'm get I'm ordering my beer, getting my food and then what do
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we see? 2 back-to-back homers by the
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Milwaukee Brew Crew. They're up to nothing.
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I'm feeling good. Go to the top of the ninth
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inning, you bring in Devin Williams, who has been one of
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the best relievers statistically over the last three or four
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years. What happens?
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He gives up a bomb to Alonzo. Absolutely heartbreaking seeing
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Alonzo. And at the bar, there are a
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bunch of Mets fans who are loving it.
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Here I am, you know, crying in my beer.
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But that was a tough one because Milwaukee had a good sharp line
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move. They're looking good the entire
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time. They completely implode at the
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worst time of the game, so their season's over.
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They lost my bet. Condolences to my guy Chuck
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Freeman to had to had to cover that one, which was probably not
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fun in Milwaukee. So that was disappointing.
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And then college football. Neither of our dogs barked.
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Troy getting 14, UTEP getting 10 1/2.
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The UTEP one was annoying because it actually closed 10 or
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even 9 1/2. So we beat the closing line.
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They lose by 20, Troy loses by 21.
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So high point obviously was that Falcons game with the Falcons
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and Cousins. Of course, the Brewers and these
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college Bulldogs couldn't bark for us.
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So overall, 2 and 3 -, 1.3 units.
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But again, we're looking to finish off the week strong and
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hopefully have a good weekend. Now I want to remind you all, if
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you're not busy on Sundays, come join me, myself and the crew at
6:00
Rhythm. We do our live stream every
6:02
Sunday. It's live on Twitter.
6:04
You can just log in. You'll see my little like my
6:07
headshot icon will have a like a live button on it, so you can
6:10
just come right in. I'll tweet it out.
6:12
Of course, Rhythm will tweet it out, but you can join us from
6:14
11:00 AM Eastern Time to noon. Have a lot of fun here.
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We break down the games, look at all the top predictions here.
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I'll give you my best bets. I will definitely have a couple
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of player props between now and Sunday.
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My buddy James Santora unfortunately won't be with us,
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but I'll be coasting with my friend Sam Wagman.
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So that should be a lot of fun. So TuneIn, if you're not busy,
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it'll be our pregame show. And it's all, it's all sharp,
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data-driven sports betting, looking at rhythm edges.
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You can answer, you can throw in some questions.
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We'll have some fun, hopefully win some bets.
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So that is the rhythm Sunday Sweats live stream TuneIn Sunday
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this Sunday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time.
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Now for our slate for tonight, let's look at a college football
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game because I know there's four games overall.
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There's actually 5 New Hampshire Harvard at a game extra game,
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which I guess is my neck of the woods in New England, but I'm
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not playing New Hampshire Harvard.
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But I did find a actual edge hopefully here on Syracuse UNLV.
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So let's go to this game. This is 9:00 tonight.
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It's by far and away your most heavily bet game of the night.
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Now, the first thing you're going to notice about all these
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games tonight is you have huge spreads like Jacksonville State
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is -17 TCU is like -17 -, 16 1/2.
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Oregon is -23 and a half 23. So pretty big numbers.
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This one's a little bit shorter. UNLV cues, it's currently UNLV
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-6 but I'm going to take QS in the points Q6 here, but let's
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set the stage for this match up here tonight.
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Mention how it's extremely heavily bet this is going to be
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I believe it is on. Let me double check for you.
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It's either on Fox or let me find this one.
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FS1. Yeah, so FS1 tonight, 9 O clock
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Eastern Time. So let's set the stage.
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Syracuse comes in three and one just brushed aside.
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Holy Cross 42 to 14 did not cover, however, as a 30 1/2
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point home favorite. Meanwhile, UNLV four and O
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ranked 25th. I believe it's the first time in
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their history of the program here that they're a ranked team.
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And remember UNLV team, All my friends at Visa who are based in
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Vegas like UNLV is like they're going crazy over UNLV.
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But remember that kids, Soluca, he promised he was going to get
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paid through the NIL. They never paid him.
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He quit the team. Well, they bring in a new kid
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and he's been pretty good when he just had his first start.
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So UNLV obviously is kind of a buzz worthy team right now.
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They just crushed Fresno State 59 to 14 easily covering as a 2
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1/2 point home favorite. Now, what have we seen across
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the market? Well, this one opened look
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ahead. An early number was as low as
8:45
UNLV -3 However, the love for UNLV and becoming kind of a buzz
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worthy team public is all over the rebels here tonight.
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Now the rebels went from -3 all the way up to -6 1/2 early
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throughout the week. However, over the last 24 hours,
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we've seen the the plus 6 1/2 for Cuse get down to six.
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And now a lot of these books are juicing up Cuse plus 6 -, 115,
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like it may get down to 5 1/2. So in a way, it's kind of the
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opposite of that Falcons game last night.
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Remember the early move was Bucks and then game day went
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back toward Falcons. Well, the early move here was
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UNLV, the late move. And again, I always stress the
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importance of game day moves because that's when the limits
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are raised highest and biggest bets come in.
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So the early move was UNLV. All this late money is breaking
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back towards Syracuse. Now Cuse is only getting across
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the market around 40% of spread bets.
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So about 60% of bets here on UNLV most heavily back game the
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night FS one 9:00. So just from a #1A contrarian
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standpoint, a bet against the public standpoint.
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This is a easy opportunity to to fade all the drunk guys at the
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bar playing UNLV and go Syracuse.
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But it's kind of marrying the contrarian play with the late
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buyback on cues that I like because again, as contrarian
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betters, we want to just have that foundation of betting
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against the public because more often than not, the public
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loses. So we want to be against them.
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They're going to bet based on gut instinct, bias, records,
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favoritism that those are uninformed bets.
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Maybe they win here or there, but long term, that's a losing
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strategy. So the contrarian plays Cuse,
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but I like Cuse because you're also getting that sharp buyback
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in their favor. So contrarian heavily bet game,
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sharp game day buyback. Also the Orangemen are a great
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buy low unranked dog against the sell high ranked opponent.
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So QS is unranked. Obviously UNLV is again the the
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kind of the popular team coming out of nowhere that people want
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to want to play tonight. However, instead of going with
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the obvious play of the ranked team over unranked as a
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data-driven value but base better, you learn to actually
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want to buy low on the unranked teams verse ranked.
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Like remember last night with the Falcons and the Bucks, we
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like the bad ATS versus good ATS where Falcons are one and three
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against the spread, Bucks were three and one ATS.
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So it's kind of the same sort of thing just in terms of selling
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high on something that's overvalued and buying low on
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something that's undervalued. Cuse also matches one of my
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favorite systems, dog who can score system match.
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So Syracuse is averaging 33.8 points per game, nearly 34
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points per game. Why is that important?
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Because UNL VS got a good offense too.
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And if you're a dog and you want to cover a number, you either
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got to play great defense and keep it low scoring or put up
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enough points on your own to keep pace or maybe backdoor
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cover. Now, in particular, Syracuse's
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quarterback Kyle McCord, his kids been great.
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If you remember, I think he was on Ohio State.
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But he is averaging 364.8 passing yards per game.
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That's the most in college football.
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And now he's going up against UNLV, whose past defense ranks
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88th in the nation. So again, dog who can score good
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quarterback here leads the nation in passing yards.
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Hopefully that's a recipe for covering this number.
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Now, we also saw this total fall a bit.
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It was like 57 1/2 down to 5655 and a half. 28% bets, 41% money
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is on that under. So it's like some under money.
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But kind of the fact that signs going back toward the dog and
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the totals falling, kind of some good correlative betting there.
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So I'm going to go Syracuse contrarian heavily back game as
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well as this sharp buyback here. A dog who can score system match
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on ranked first ranked UNLV can win, but can you win by 5 or
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less? I'm going Cuse.
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Make sure you get the six because a lot of books are
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juiced up like it may get down to 5 1/2.
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You would love to see between now and 9:00 tonight before kick
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off the whole market get down to 5 1/2.
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Let's get some closing line value if we can.
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That would be a good sign if it falls further toward Cuse.
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But for now, guys in pocket, I'm going with the primetime dog
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with some sharp buyback. Give me Syracuse +6.
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Now over to the WNBA because that's right, we got some post
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season WNBA and a big match up here.
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There's actually two games overall.
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I'm going to look at the early game Lynx versus Sun.
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That's the Minnesota Lynx and the Connecticut Sun.
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So going into this one, you'll be series that is tied 1 to one.
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Looking at this match up, we had the Connecticut Sun.
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Remember first two games, or if you don't remember, first two
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games were in Minnesota. The Sun won the 1st 173 to 70
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and then the Lynx came back and won the 2nd 177 to 70.
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So kind of split that homecourt there.
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And again, these are a best of five series.
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What are we seeing across the market now?
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This game's back in Connecticut #1 We've seen the line go toward
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the sun. The sun actually opened a very
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short 1 1/2 point home favorite. And if you look at the line
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move, it's all been toward the sun.
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Sun -1 1/2 got up to -2 game day.
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Those twos are now up to 2 1/2. So it's been one way in favor of
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Connecticut. And Connecticut has a pretty
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good bet split and it's basically kind of a quasi 5050
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line move because on the spread, the Connecticut Sun are only
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getting 54% of bets but 64% of dollars.
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So low bets, higher dollars bets split.
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Now I am going to go money line on the sun again.
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I don't want to mess around with the Sun winning by one or two.
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I lay a 2 1/2 and I lose my bet. So I went money line with the
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sun. I got them at -135 And here's
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another couple reasons to go money line.
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One, if you go to the money line splits, only 52% bets, but 66%
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dollars on the money line. But then here's the kicker.
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I dialed this up in my database and I looked at postseason
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chalk. So when it comes to the
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postseason, obviously very, you know, you know, high octane, you
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know, big pressure environments. What have we seen in the betting
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market when it comes to favorites and dogs?
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Well, one thing really jumped out to me.
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If you look at just straight up money line, who wins the
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majority of playoff games in the WNBA, it's the favorite over the
14:51
last three seasons. This kind of blew me away.
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The last three seasons, postseason favorites are 43 and
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12, straight up 78% with a 6% ROI.
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So over the last three years, you're almost winning 8 out of
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10 games when you're the favorite.
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And in particular, this one was even crazier.
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If you just look at this year, post season favorites are 11 and
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one straight up 92%. So we have seen whether it's
15:16
this year or in previous years, the cream rises to the top, the
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chalk, the better team typically wins these games.
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Another thing I'm looking at with the sun is the classic
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zigzag theory. You know, you win game one, you
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lose game two, you win game three.
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You know the back and forth nature, especially with a very
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short number here. So the zigzag would now say
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played the Sun at home. Remember, they won game one,
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lost Game 2. And then another thing I'm
15:40
banking on is free throws made. The Sun get to the line and make
15:45
much more free, many more free throws, which could be, you
15:47
know, very big in a short spread type game.
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They're making 16 free throw free throws a game.
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The Lynx are only making 12. So you got it all up here, guys.
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One thing I notice all movement liabilities been toward
15:59
Connecticut. They got a pretty good bet split
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and they have that great historical angle with those
16:03
chalk favorites in the postseason.
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Again, 78% win rate last three years, 92% win rate just this
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season. So I'm a big Connecticut sun
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fan. To be honest with you.
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Mohegan Sun isn't isn't too far for me.
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So I don't know if this is too late for me to go and and watch
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this game, but this is kind of my neck of the woods in New
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England. I'll be rooting hard for the
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Connecticut Sun. Give me the sun on the money
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line. Let's win the damn game at -135
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S for tonight. Syracuse plus 6 sun -135 Now
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let's give our card here. Unveil our card for this
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weekend. Big weekend full of sweats.
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I want to go to college football first because we got a big
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college football slate and I have a bunch of bets here.
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I got four overall, some of which we've already talked
16:48
about, some of which actually we talked about.
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All of them, three of them have already bet.
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One I was waiting on and I finally pulled the trigger on.
16:56
So the one I was waiting on was Michigan and Washington.
17:01
Now, this is your most heavily bet game of the weekend.
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So if you look at the ticket count and the split for this
17:08
one, this is really your best bet against the public play of
17:11
the week. So this is a 7:30 PM Eastern
17:14
Time game on ESPN. Michigan is ranked 10th.
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They're four and one Washington Huskies 3:00 and 2:00.
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But what do we talk about this one?
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We talked about the fact that number one, this is not only
17:25
your most heavily bet game of the week, but it's also one of
17:28
your most lopsided. So if you look at the current
17:30
bet splits on this one, it's kind of crazy.
17:32
You're looking at the public going with Michigan, 77% of
17:37
spread bets. So the fact it's the most
17:39
heavily bet game of the week and 77% of bets are in Michigan
17:43
automatically without even doing any more research, I want to be
17:46
on that that 23% side with Washington.
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But even better, it will fade the trendy dog.
17:51
We have our one more favorite systems that unranked home fav
17:54
ranked opponent Michigan's getting all the bets.
17:56
Why? Because the public thinks the
17:58
quote UN quote wrong team is favored.
18:01
Again, the wrong team is never favored.
18:02
It's just your perception or your bias telling you it doesn't
18:05
make sense and you think the odds makers are wrong.
18:08
Let me assure you the odds makers are never wrong.
18:10
They can have a line that, you know, a favorite loses to a dog,
18:14
yadda yadda, dog wins outright. That that's not about being
18:17
right or wrong. These are true lines based on
18:20
their high-powered power ratings.
18:23
But anyway, we open this game, It was basically -2 -, 1 - 2 in
18:30
favor of Washington. Washington got up to 2 1/2, even
18:33
3. Now I was waiting on this one
18:35
because I knew I was going to go money line because my one of my
18:38
favorite systems is unranked home fave ranked opponent.
18:40
When you're a favorite and you're unranked and it's a team
18:43
that's ranked, that's the automatic fishy play that I want
18:45
to get behind. So since 2017, unranked home
18:48
favorites, first ranked opponents, they're 52 and 26
18:51
straight up 67%. So I knew I'd be on Washington,
18:55
but the line was hovering around 2 1/2.
18:57
Now, I fully admit it has gotten down to 1 1/2.
19:00
It doesn't really change. My handicap tells me that, hey,
19:03
maybe there was some Michigan plus 2 1/2 money coming in, but
19:07
we're still getting Washington favored at -1 1/2 even though
19:10
everyone is playing Michigan. So this is now a money line play
19:13
for me at kind of a buy low price.
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It's now -120 -, 125 on the money line.
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And this was high as like -145 earlier in the week.
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But if you give me the most heavily backed game of the week,
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everyone's playing Michigan and we still have a Washington
19:27
favorite here, even though it's the most heavily back game and
19:30
everyone's going Wolverines. To me, it's an opportunity here
19:33
to fade that trendy dog and go Huskies.
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So I'm on Huskies. Let's see if they can bark for
19:38
us. I got them on the money line at
19:39
-125 Next one, Miami and Cal, we talked about this one earlier.
19:45
I already took the plus 10 1/2 with Cal Hope you guys did too.
19:49
It should still be available here because most shops are
19:52
still plus 10 1/2 at basically -115 you look at some books
20:00
though that might be getting down to 10 and it is juiced up
20:03
in favor of Cal. Like it may get down to 10.
20:05
So again, you still have the opportunity to get the hook here
20:08
with Cal. But you have Miami coming in
20:11
ranked. Remember, they squeaked out that
20:13
winner there with the thanks to the referees in which I thought
20:16
should have been Vot Tech with the catch and winning that game
20:19
at the end. But anyway, you open Miami like
20:21
-12 it's down to 10 1/2. And why is this line falling
20:25
toward Cal when everybody and I mean everybody is playing Miami?
20:28
Miami is getting currently across the market 79% of spread
20:34
bets. So nearly 80% is on Miami.
20:36
Yet the lines falling to Cal fishy, fishy unranked dog versus
20:40
ranked opponent cows only getting 21% bets, but 50% of
20:44
dollars. And you also have Cal off a by
20:47
so rested and ready to go. So I'm on Cal plus 10 1/2.
20:51
Next one USC in Minnesota. There's another dog play for me.
20:55
You look at this one with USC coming in, another very, very
20:59
popular bet. The public is going USC
21:02
currently they're getting 70% of spread bets, but they open like
21:06
-8 1/2. I saw some books even higher
21:08
closer to to an opener of like -10 it's down to 8 1/2 and some
21:12
books even getting down to 8. So I took the 8 1/2 with
21:15
Minnesota. That's a 730 game, heavily bet
21:18
prime, prime time unranked. For shranked, I took Minnesota
21:22
plus 8 1/2 and again, you may want to jump on that sooner
21:24
rather than later as it looks like it might be getting down
21:28
juice wise closer to 8. And then last bet for me, West
21:32
Virginia, Oklahoma State, Take Me Home country roads, let's go
21:36
Shenandoah River, West Virginia. I love this play.
21:39
Hopefully you guys listened earlier in the week because you
21:42
could have gotten 3 1/2 on West Virginia.
21:44
I'm holding WVU plus 3 1/2. Good thing that this line is
21:50
down to three. Bad thing if you missed the
21:51
hook. So hopefully, hopefully you did
21:54
get that hook. But Oklahoma State, everyone is
21:57
going OK state thinking that hey, this is a bounce back spot.
22:00
I think they've what, lost couple in a row here, but
22:03
they're at home against West Virginia. 74% of bets are going
22:07
Oklahoma State. But Oklahoma State actually
22:09
opened as high as -5 it's down to three.
22:13
And again, much of the week this was 3 1/2.
22:15
So just from literally over the last day and 1/2 or so, those 3
22:20
1/2 those hooks are gone and it's down to three.
22:22
Why is the line continuing to go to Shenandoah River if
22:25
everyone's playing OK? State again tells me we got
22:28
smart money on WVU. Only 26% bets but 51% dollars
22:33
they rested off a buy and short Rd. dog getting 4 or less when
22:37
my favorite grinder systems also matches with WVU.
22:41
That's 59% ATS this year. It's 54% since 2012, so
22:46
hopefully you jumped on that. That hook here, you might be
22:50
able to. I don't really see any 3 1/2's.
22:52
Maybe you can buy it up if it's juiced, but I'm seeing some
22:55
juice on the WVU side. Like you may even get down to 2
22:59
1/2. So if you like WVU, at least you
23:02
got to get the three, but hopefully you got the hook on
23:04
that one. But my 4 bets here.
23:06
Can we find a way to get three of them?
23:08
Washington on the money line, Cal plus 10 1/2.
23:10
Minnesota plus 8 1/2 in WVU. Take Me Home.
23:14
Country Roads plus 3 1/2 or now three.
23:18
Now over to the NFL. Big NFL slate coming up here on
23:21
Sunday. And I got a four pack of sweats
23:23
for you. So first one here that we are
23:26
looking at is an early matchup. So don't don't get too drunk and
23:29
miss this one. 9:30 AM Eastern Time.
23:32
We're going across the pond. We're going to London for the
23:35
International Series Jets and Minnesota Vikings.
23:38
Now, one thing I don't love about this one is that Minnesota
23:41
is quote UN quote, the public side.
23:43
Minnesota Vikings are getting around 70% of spread bets.
23:47
But we've seen a move toward the Minnesota Vikings.
23:50
At one point you had a look at of Jets favorite in this game,
23:54
like jets -2 We flip now to Minnesota -2 1/2.
23:59
And the one thing I like about this Minnesota angle is your
24:02
International Series favorite. The International Series
24:05
favorites are winning close to 75% of the time.
24:09
And you do have, again, Minnesota with a much better
24:12
offense putting up some points. Jets have got some finger
24:15
pointing and Rodgers battling with Robert Salai, even though
24:19
he says they're cool. But I, I don't love the public
24:22
nature of this, but I like the line move toward Minnesota.
24:25
International Series favorites have crushed it.
24:27
So I'm on Minnesota money line here.
24:29
I got him at -135 next one that we talked about previously,
24:34
Dallas and Pittsburgh Sunday Night Football, big match up
24:37
here in in Pittsburgh and everyone's playing the Cowboys.
24:40
They're not everyone, but 59% of spread bets are going Cowboys.
24:44
But we identified this early in the week.
24:46
Guys, this is a fade. The trendy dog.
24:47
This reminds me a lot of the Ravens last Sunday night against
24:51
Buffalo, where Dallas is the public play.
24:54
Again, close to 60% bets. The open -1 we flip to
24:58
Pittsburgh -2 1/2. So dog to fave line move in
25:01
favor of Pittsburgh. They're only getting 4140% bets
25:06
or 41% bets, but they're taking in 59% of money.
25:10
So nice low bets, higher dollars bet split.
25:13
Mike Tomlin off a loss. He's been great, 58% against the
25:17
spread historically. And Dallas has got a lot of
25:19
injuries. You know, I always sometimes get
25:22
into arguments with people like was it a sharp line move or was
25:25
it an injury adjustment? Sometimes it's a little bit of
25:27
both because, you know, wise guys will get information on
25:30
injuries and then hammer it. So is it the odds makers moving
25:34
it just because the injury or is it because they're taking in
25:36
smart money? Again, it's a little bit of a
25:38
semantics, but Dallas has got a lot of injuries.
25:42
No Brandon Cooks, no Micah Parsons, no DeMarcus Lawrence.
25:46
This is a good spot here to go contrarian in a heavily bet
25:49
primetime Sunday night game. I'm going Pittsburgh to win the
25:52
damn game on the money line. I got the Pittsburgh Steelers
25:57
here at -140 next one for you that we mentioned.
26:01
Vegas and Denver going. Denver Broncos here, guys.
26:04
This game opened Denver very short, like 1 or 1 1/2 point
26:08
home favorite. Now they're up to three.
26:10
Now it's juiced up like it may get back down to 2 1/2, but all
26:13
movement has been toward Denver and this one.
26:15
And they're not that popular. They're only getting 60% of
26:19
bets, but nearly 70% of money. Broncos also far better defense.
26:24
I've seen really no buyback here on Vegas and also Vegas with
26:29
injuries and Devante Adams requesting a trade.
26:32
Denver may be starting to gel a little bit after their win with
26:36
The Jets. But even if you take out kind of
26:39
recent performance here, this is a line move that's been all
26:42
toward the Denver Broncos. So I'm going to go Broncos on
26:44
the money line as well. Got them -145 last bet for you,
26:49
which became a late evolving play for me.
26:51
Buffalo and Houston. 1:00 game here on Sunday.
26:55
We actually were looking at Buffalo pretty much favored all
26:58
week. Buffalo is sitting around -1 -,
27:01
1 1/2 all week. And then I woke up today and
27:04
noticed that we flipped to Houston -1 so big adjustment
27:08
here, Dog to fave in favor of Houston.
27:11
Now 70% of bets are Buffalo. Yet late move is back toward
27:15
Houston again. Why is the line going back
27:17
toward the team that's so unpopular?
27:19
Well, partly injuries here. Noticed a report here that the
27:23
Bills are going to be down to three starters.
27:25
Khalil Shakur, they're good wide receiver, both of their
27:29
defensive tackles, Austin Johnson and Ed Oliver Taylor
27:32
Rapp is injured. We got a lot of injuries here on
27:35
Buffalo and Houston is the contrarian play and one of the
27:39
most heavily backed games of the one O clock slate and the line
27:42
is coming back in their favor. So we've really seen nothing but
27:45
sharp buyback and movement toward Houston.
27:48
So I'm going to bet against the Bills and their injuries.
27:50
I'm going to go with this contrarian line move.
27:51
I'm going to go Houston to win this game.
27:54
It's basically a coin flip. They're -1 but you can maybe
27:58
shop around and find a -, 115 on the money line, which is not a
28:02
bad price. So we got four teams to
28:05
hopefully just win the game, Minnesota, Houston, Denver, and
28:09
Pittsburgh. Can we find a way to get three
28:11
out of four? That is the goal now, to finish
28:14
up the pod. We got some biting to talk about
28:17
and I tell you what, sometimes betting can be frustrating.
28:21
We had a 12 bout or bite win streak.
28:24
We had 112 straight riding high and now we've lost two straight.
28:27
So maybe some regression to the mean, but I'm looking to get
28:30
back in the win column and I noticed one fight in particular,
28:34
one bite, which caught my eye and this is a big showdown here.
28:39
This is going to be UFC3O7 in Salt Lake City and it's a
28:43
matchup between Let me find these two blighters as I like to
28:47
call them Joaquin Buckley and Steven Thompson.
28:52
Now first thing I noticed as I got my my fresh and good looking
28:57
breakdown here as I do every Friday for my buddy John Ewing
29:00
and UFC, the bet splits and I noticed two things in favor of
29:05
Joaquin Buckley. Buckley is only getting 45% of
29:09
bets, but 88% of money. Buckley moved from -185 up to
29:15
-210. I'm seeing some shops even as
29:18
high as -230 now. So he's got low bets, higher
29:21
dollars again, subbed. He's got less than 50% tickets
29:25
but nearly 90% money. He's got the line move in his
29:27
favor. And then I go to the tail of the
29:29
tape. What an advantage for Buckley.
29:32
Buckley is only 30 years old. If you look at Steven Thompson,
29:36
Wonderboy, I got to admit I do like his nickname, but he's 41
29:40
years old. So we got a 30 year old versus A
29:42
41 year old. Now Buckley is 2 inches or a
29:46
couple inches shorter. He's 5 foot 8.
29:49
Thompson is 6 foot. Buckley does have a one inch
29:51
reach advantage, 76 inches versus 75 inches.
29:55
But the youth advantage, the line move and the bet split,
29:58
that really sold me on Joaquin Buckley.
30:01
Now, if you look at just some more supplementary into info
30:05
here, Thompson has lost three of his last four.
30:09
Buckley has won four straight. I was reading about Buckley.
30:12
He actually moved from welterweight down to middle
30:15
weight and since he made that change, he's four and O.
30:18
So he sounds like he's really hitting his stride in a weight
30:20
division that probably suits him best.
30:23
If you look at significant strikes per minute, 4.3 versus
30:26
4.1 and better grappler, which again, if we get to the mat,
30:30
hopefully that's a benefit here toward Buckley.
30:33
And just so you just a kind of classic, you know, Biter that is
30:37
on an upswing in the prime of his career with some momentum.
30:41
Buckley versus a fighter who is now 41 has lost three of four.
30:46
And it's kind of tailing off a bit here, maybe declining as I
30:50
should say. So you had it all up here, guys.
30:52
This is a Joaquin Buckley play for me.
30:55
So shop around. Again, as low as 210, some books
30:59
even as high as -230 I was able to get a -, 215 on Buckley
31:04
younger, much younger with a great line move.
31:08
Any great low bets, higher dollars bets.
31:09
But let's get back on track with Mr. Joaquin Buckley biting.
31:14
That all does it for episode 134 of the All Systems Go Sports
31:18
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
31:21
This is the part of the pod here where we wrap things up and then
31:23
I give you a send off. So let's start by first asking a
31:25
favor of you fantastic sharp sports bettors who listen each
31:29
day #1 thank you for tuning in, for making this pod what it is,
31:33
because I can ramble on all day, but it really is the community
31:36
we've created that I'm most proud of.
31:38
But could you do me a big favor? Could you please give this
31:41
podcast a five star review? If you are on Spotify or iTunes,
31:45
rate and review, boom, give it five stars.
31:47
That would mean a lot to me, guys.
31:49
It would be a very simple thing you can do to help grow the pod,
31:52
gain more likes, gain more, more lessons, rise up the charts even
31:55
higher. That'll be fantastic.
31:57
And I'd very much appreciate it if you also wanted to click the
32:00
follow button, that way you get alerted as soon as it drops each
32:03
day. That would be great.
32:04
Also, if you want to recommend it to a friend, that would be
32:06
awesome too because word of mouth to me is the best
32:09
recommendation you can get. But please give it a five star
32:12
review. That would be awesome.
32:13
Secondly, if you enjoy this pod, these breakdowns, of course not
32:18
everyone will win, but do you feel like you are reading the
32:21
market and making sharp bets and beating closing lines?
32:23
Hopefully that is the goal. Now if you tail fade, maybe you
32:28
listen to every play, maybe you pick and choose one or two,
32:31
maybe just enjoy the style and the breakdown, or maybe now you
32:35
are kind of using some of these indicators that we look for as
32:38
data-driven betters. You're focusing on what a line
32:41
opened at, how and why it moved, not just the opener versus the
32:44
current, but all the moves in between.
32:45
You're comparing the bets to the dollars.
32:48
You're going contrarian, you're identifying smart money, you're
32:51
flat bedding. You're not parlaying.
32:53
If any of this style of betting appeals to you or you just want
32:56
to make my day, let me know. You appreciate the hard work
32:58
that I put in hosting this pod each day, then please, please,
33:01
please, please go buy my book. I wrote a book.
33:04
It only cost about 20 bucks, might even be a little less than
33:07
that, but it's called the Everything Guide to Sports
33:09
Betting. So just go to Amazon.com, type
33:11
in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting, pick up a copy
33:14
for you or for a friend. Let's get everything I've
33:17
learned in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they
33:20
move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how
33:23
to place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best
33:25
line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
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the everything guide to sports betting.
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It makes a great stocking stuffer.
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Somebody's birthday or just somebody's new new into betting
33:36
doesn't have any freaking clue where to begin.
33:39
Give them the data-driven blueprint.
33:40
Learn how to read the market you're going to.
33:42
You're going to make smarter bets of course, whether I see
33:46
you or Sir. Before I tell you that, have you
33:48
taken advantage of Rhythm and Juice Reel, my two favorite
33:51
sports betting apps on the market?
33:52
Rhythm was great to us, helping us cash that cousins over
33:56
passing yards. But Rhythm is great for their AI
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backed models and predictions for both game bets and player
34:01
props. Juice Reel.
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I love looking at the Robo Jackson best bet picks each day.
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I love it when we overlap. You can also look for sharp mush
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opportunities, arbitrage plays, sync up your sports books, get a
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report card of your action. It's all included when you take
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advantage of Rhythm and Juice Reel.
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All you got to do is sign up by clicking the custom links that
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are located in the bio description of each podcast.
34:23
So today I'll say in episode 134, Josh dishes out a 2 pack of
34:28
Friday sweats and a bunch of weekend sweats.
34:30
OK, scroll below that. Just go down a little bit.
34:33
You'll see the Rhythm and Juice Reel links.
34:35
Click those links and get that 7 day free trial and really in
34:39
particular with Rhythm. Once you download it, tune into
34:42
the Sunday sweats. And as we're breaking on the
34:44
games, looking at props and and game predictions and models, you
34:47
can kind of go right with us. It'll be it'll be fun when
34:50
you're holding in your hand and listening to the show.
34:52
But of course we haven't done it yet.
34:54
Go sign up for both because they help me win and I'm pretty
34:57
confident they'll help you win. Now, as always, like to to
35:00
finish up with whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
35:04
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
35:06
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
35:09
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
35:12
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in the
35:15
desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters
35:18
sends his number runners, where the lowest juice possible is
35:20
found. The South Point sweating, sharp
35:22
contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
35:25
When you walk it off in OT with the with the Falcons, wherever
35:28
it may be, you can walk up to me.
35:30
You're going to show me that thrilling Falcons winner that
35:33
cousins over 229 1/2. Guess what first one's on me
35:36
next one's on you were going to post about the book sweatshark
35:39
and train plays all night long. Just don't show me the Brewers.
35:42
I honestly that they could not have been a better script for
35:45
the Brewers to win that game up to O going to the 9th your stud
35:49
closer on the mound and then he completely blows it.
35:52
So that was disappointing. But anyway, first one's on me.
35:55
Next one's on you. We'll post about the book sweat
35:57
sharp and train plays all night long.
36:00
So have a fantastic Friday night and even better weekend
36:02
everyone. As always, stay sharp, stay
36:05
contrary and bet against the public.
36:06
Place yourself on the side of the house.
36:07
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
36:10
Will smart money win every time? No, no, it really won't.
36:14
But it's going to win a majority of the time.
36:15
It might have hurt us with the Brewers or what was it, UTEP,
36:19
beating the closing line didn't come through for us.
36:22
But here's the thing, if you consistently long term make
36:25
smart and sharp bets and beat closing lines, you're going to
36:27
be successful because anything can happen to one off.
36:30
But remember, we're always playing that long game.
36:32
So stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
36:35
yourself on on the side of the house.
36:37
Again, if we can do that, get some CLV and stick to our model
36:41
with betting with our head and not our heart.
36:43
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
36:46
So have a great Friday night everyone.
36:47
Have an even better weekend. I looked look forward to seeing
36:50
you on Sunday for the Rhythm live stream at 11:00 AM.
36:54
Have a great, great weekend everybody.
36:56
And as always, we back at it on Monday for episode 135 of the
37:01
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
37:04
Good luck everybody. I'll see you soon.