Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / Falcons vs Saints - MNF Showdown Shippers | NFL Week 4 | DFS Picks, Plays & Process
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear for lift off.
- 0:40Speaker 2: What's going on, everyone?
- 0:41Speaker 1: Welcome to the Ship It Nation Monday Night Football Showdown
- 0:45Speaker 1: Shipper Show. So now we have the official title, something
- 0:48Speaker 1: that's new this year. So it's the Showdown Shipper Show.
- 0:52Speaker 1: As you can see, our guy Tambo is on the
- 0:54Speaker 1: sidelines today.
- 0:55Speaker 2: If you tuned in yesterday, you would know he's a
- 0:58Speaker 2: little under the weather.
- 0:59Speaker 1: Still not fully healthy. So we got myself, we got title,
- 1:02Speaker 1: and we'll be breaking it all down. Kind of follow
- 1:05Speaker 1: the same format, but solid game.
- 1:07Speaker 2: To wrap up a week of the NFL season.
- 1:10Speaker 1: Slate yesterday was a little wonky, some random things that happened,
- 1:14Speaker 1: more injuries, a lot of injuries this year as the
- 1:17Speaker 1: season goes on. So hopefully those slow down. But a
- 1:20Speaker 1: solid game to finish out the week. Falcons and Saints
- 1:24Speaker 1: total sitting around 48 and a half and minus one
- 1:28Speaker 1: in favor of the Saints. So basically a pick them,
- 1:31Speaker 1: but two offenses that can get the job done.
- 1:34Speaker 2: So excited to break it down. Toss it to your title.
- 1:37Speaker 2: How's it going?
- 1:38Speaker 1: And then, you know, any takeaways from the main slate
- 1:42Speaker 1: or anything, any first luck here for this Falcons-Saints game?
- 1:46Speaker 3: Doing well. It wasn't the best day for me yesterday,
- 1:49Speaker 3: but it was a great day for you. So shout
- 1:51Speaker 3: out to you on a great main team on FanDuel.
- 1:55Speaker 3: Any takeaways? That was one of the grossest days of
- 1:57Speaker 3: football I think I've watched in a long time. I mean,
- 2:00Speaker 3: I don't know if it was just because I lost.
- 2:02Speaker 3: My teams weren't doing great. In the afternoon, eventually the
- 2:04Speaker 3: normal people, Kenneth Walker, Bowers got there, but man, it
- 2:08Speaker 3: just felt like, I mean, that whole Jacksonville-Cincy game completely flopped.
- 2:12Speaker 3: If you didn't have Houston-Dallas, CeeDee Lamb, Nico, CJ, you
- 2:17Speaker 3: weren't really winning anything. Parker Washington, as disappointing as it gets.
- 2:21Speaker 3: Then your boy, Rasheed Rice. Man, that was crazy. So
- 2:26Speaker 3: I don't know if you want to talk about anything
- 2:28Speaker 3: with that. But yeah, not a great main slate for me,
- 2:30Speaker 3: a good one for you. But yeah, what you got
- 2:33Speaker 3: to say about that?
- 2:34Speaker 2: Yeah, my guy Rice, man, that was painful. I mean,
- 2:37Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 2:38Speaker 1: Do I get the DraftKings injury void situation?
- 2:42Speaker 2: We're going to have to run that back, though.
- 2:43Speaker 1: We've got to have a slate where the dude makes
- 2:45Speaker 1: it past the first five plays. We'll pick a new
- 2:48Speaker 1: spot for the Rice versus whoever you want sort of bet.
- 2:52Speaker 1: But that was bad. But, man, that team's good. I mean,
- 2:56Speaker 1: that was a good game, the Chiefs. There's some teams
- 2:59Speaker 1: now that are starting to separate themselves a little bit from,
- 3:02Speaker 1: from the pack.
- 3:03Speaker 2: And it's definitely not my lions. I mean, that was,
- 3:06Speaker 2: I do want to touch on.
- 3:07Speaker 1: That because I've been saying it since week one, that
- 3:10Speaker 1: the secondary would be horrible and they wouldn't be able
- 3:12Speaker 1: to stop anyone. That's just about as bad as it gets.
- 3:16Speaker 1: Like when you've got a guy that can do whatever
- 3:19Speaker 1: he wants and McMillan's good, you know, don't get me wrong,
- 3:22Speaker 1: but this is still a young dude in the NFL
- 3:24Speaker 1: and you just let him do whatever the hell he
- 3:27Speaker 1: wanted the entire game. And you had no chance of
- 3:30Speaker 1: slowing it down. Just, Very pathetic. Very annoying as a
- 3:34Speaker 1: Lions fan.
- 3:35Speaker 2: I mean, we always talk.
- 3:35Speaker 1: I mean, fandom for us is a little bit different
- 3:37Speaker 1: because we're rooting for our dollars over our own teams,
- 3:40Speaker 1: but still sort of rooting for the Lions a little bit.
- 3:43Speaker 1: You knew this was an issue coming into the season.
- 3:46Speaker 1: You don't address it at all, and you pretend like
- 3:48Speaker 1: you're just going to be able to roll out the
- 3:49Speaker 1: guys that you have to make some difference. There is
- 3:54Speaker 1: no way this team, as constructed, is going to be
- 3:58Speaker 1: able to slow anyone down.
- 3:59Speaker 2: But for DFS.
- 4:00Speaker 1: it's it's going to be a good situation to stay
- 4:03Speaker 1: on now everyone has seen it so it's going to
- 4:05Speaker 1: be a little bit different and you know more people
- 4:07Speaker 1: are going to be on I think they got the
- 4:09Speaker 1: Cardinals coming up that totals already at like 54 which
- 4:12Speaker 1: you know it could come I wouldn't be surprised if
- 4:14Speaker 1: it doesn't come up but that was that was painful
- 4:17Speaker 1: painful to watch last night.
- 4:19Speaker 3: I mean for sure just uh we knew that about
- 4:21Speaker 3: your Lions and just like Nate said about the Packers
- 4:24Speaker 3: we knew I knew coming in for the Packers their
- 4:26Speaker 3: offensive line was terrible they didn't really do too much um,
- 4:30Speaker 3: to figure that part out. And yeah, when you can't
- 4:32Speaker 3: win the trenches and you can't cover anyone, it's going
- 4:34Speaker 3: to be a long year, even if you can move
- 4:35Speaker 3: the football. So, I mean, yeah, Vikings four and O
- 4:39Speaker 3: without able with like, they can't even move the football
- 4:42Speaker 3: and they find themselves four and O the bears find,
- 4:45Speaker 3: find ways to win. I mean, yeah, like Mike says
- 4:48Speaker 3: over here for in Wisconsin, where we got the brew
- 4:50Speaker 3: crew and that's about it. Cause the bucks aren't going
- 4:52Speaker 3: to be very good either.
- 4:54Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 4:55Speaker 1: Uh, that, that Minnesota, I mean, Kyle, again, like, I
- 4:59Speaker 1: know I've beat this to death, but he is awful
- 5:02Speaker 1: as an NFL quarterback.
- 5:03Speaker 2: Their defense is elite. Don't get me wrong.
- 5:05Speaker 1: They played some bad teams, and they've taken advantage of
- 5:07Speaker 1: that situation. But long-term, if you've got a guy like
- 5:10Speaker 1: Kyler back there, it's just– I watched that game because
- 5:14Speaker 1: I had a lot of the Minnesota stuff, so I
- 5:16Speaker 1: was tuning in. It's just he never– It's always he's
- 5:20Speaker 1: always going to like the second and third read. And
- 5:23Speaker 1: then like it's just too late. Like if you're going
- 5:25Speaker 1: to do that, you got to move out of the pocket.
- 5:27Speaker 1: He just stands there. He's he's horrible. I mean, he
- 5:30Speaker 1: is he is really, really bad. Now, when Justin Jefferson
- 5:33Speaker 1: comes back, he's going to have that out where it's like, oh, shit,
- 5:36Speaker 1: let's just chuck it up to this guy.
- 5:38Speaker 2: And that'll probably work out. And it's going to bail
- 5:39Speaker 2: him out a lot. But right now, that looks awful.
- 5:42Speaker 2: That Minnesota situation.
- 5:44Speaker 3: For sure. Did you see with your lines on like
- 5:46Speaker 3: Amin Ra's podcast, Goff was on there and Amin Ra
- 5:49Speaker 3: just like pretty much like called him out and was
- 5:52Speaker 3: being really weird to him?
- 5:53Speaker 2: I don't see that, no.
- 5:54Speaker 3: Oh my gosh, so awkward. Amin Ra lost all respect
- 5:58Speaker 3: to any normal human being. Yeah, pretty much was like,
- 6:01Speaker 3: you do nothing with the team. You don't sit with us,
- 6:03Speaker 3: like just podcasting. It couldn't have been any more awkward.
- 6:07Speaker 3: And yeah, let's just say I think that team's in trouble.
- 6:10Speaker 1: Yeah, and you saw yesterday, it was Amon Ryan Gibbs
- 6:13Speaker 1: sitting on the bench just when the defense was out
- 6:16Speaker 1: there just like shaking their head like, what is this mess?
- 6:19Speaker 1: I mean, and it sucks for guys like Aiden Hutchinson
- 6:22Speaker 1: on the defense.
- 6:23Speaker 2: It's like, man, like it doesn't matter what you do
- 6:26Speaker 2: up front.
- 6:26Speaker 1: Like, you know, as soon as that ball leaves the
- 6:29Speaker 1: quarterback's hand, something bad's going to happen against your defense.
- 6:33Speaker 1: So Yeah, a lot of interesting stuff. The injuries, though,
- 6:37Speaker 1: for sure, hopefully they slow down because it's been a
- 6:39Speaker 1: ton and they just kind of keep on coming. But
- 6:42Speaker 1: in regards to this game, any initial thoughts here? And
- 6:46Speaker 1: you can kind of just go in and we're going
- 6:48Speaker 1: to follow the same format, talk about captains first. So
- 6:50Speaker 1: any initial thoughts and then go into what you're thinking
- 6:53Speaker 1: at the captain position?
- 6:55Speaker 3: I mean, great game we got on Monday night. NFC South,
- 6:58Speaker 3: the battle. I mean, the Panthers just got a win.
- 7:01Speaker 3: So it's a big game for both these teams. We
- 7:04Speaker 3: saw that with Michael Penix back. Like I said, I mean,
- 7:07Speaker 3: it's not that he was even great. Cooper Rush was
- 7:09Speaker 3: as bad as it gets, but they just dominated the
- 7:11Speaker 3: Packers on Thursday. They get a long weekend. No one
- 7:14Speaker 3: was able to stop Bijan. Drake London finally got going.
- 7:17Speaker 3: The offense looked a lot better. On the Saints side,
- 7:20Speaker 3: no Travis Achan, I guess is his name. It's not ETF,
- 7:25Speaker 3: which is so, it's driving me crazy. But so he's out.
- 7:28Speaker 3: So it's a, I mean, Kamara we think is going
- 7:31Speaker 3: to be the guy. 7K is priced up, though. Keandre Miller, 5K.
- 7:35Speaker 3: We know the pass catchers, though. Tyler Chuck's been great
- 7:38Speaker 3: this year. Chris Olave, Vele, Juwan Johnson have all benefited
- 7:42Speaker 3: pretty greatly. So I think we– I mean, total sitting
- 7:46Speaker 3: at 47.5. Only one of that point favorites are the Saints.
- 7:48Speaker 3: I think we're in for a good football game. In
- 7:51Speaker 3: terms of DFS, value is pretty tough on this slate.
- 7:55Speaker 3: That's one takeaway. And when Bijan is– on the slate,
- 7:59Speaker 3: he's projected almost 30% at captain Drake, London, a lot
- 8:02Speaker 3: of a shock. Like we have spends, we want going
- 8:05Speaker 3: and trying to find some cheap value is not very good.
- 8:09Speaker 3: So I do think people are going to want to
- 8:10Speaker 3: go more middling bills if they're able to. And that's
- 8:13Speaker 3: going to lead, I think a good amount of people
- 8:15Speaker 3: to like the kicker stuff. So that's kind of my
- 8:18Speaker 3: broad slate. You, do you have anything to add or
- 8:20Speaker 3: you just want me to jump right into what I
- 8:21Speaker 3: think at captain or what I, I mean, just.
- 8:23Speaker 1: Kind of reiterating the same points. I mean, like, You
- 8:28Speaker 1: know who the studs are on the slate. With the Falcons,
- 8:32Speaker 1: I definitely will take the L. It's one thing I
- 8:34Speaker 1: do and not many other people are willing to do.
- 8:37Speaker 1: I didn't think Penix would be that much of a
- 8:41Speaker 1: difference maker for this team, him coming back. I was
- 8:44Speaker 1: wrong because he looked pretty good. When you got Bijan
- 8:50Speaker 1: and you got Drake London, you have one job. It's like,
- 8:53Speaker 1: get those guys the ball. He does a hell of
- 8:55Speaker 1: a job doing that job, getting those guys the ball.
- 8:58Speaker 1: And I guess for overall fantasy purposes, it makes it
- 9:03Speaker 1: not necessarily difficult, but it's like, man, on the Falcon side,
- 9:08Speaker 1: who can you make the case for outside of Bijon
- 9:11Speaker 1: and Drake London for captain?
- 9:13Speaker 2: And it's pretty difficult.
- 9:15Speaker 1: So that's one thing that definitely stands out to me.
- 9:18Speaker 1: And I can almost say the same thing on the
- 9:20Speaker 1: Saints side. It's like Chris Olave has done so much.
- 9:24Speaker 1: Like he's a phenomenal, I mean, I mean, if you
- 9:26Speaker 1: go back and redraft some of these best balls, like
- 9:29Speaker 1: you're probably going to take Chris Alave and around one, right? Like,
- 9:33Speaker 1: I mean, the way he's been playing, like he's probably
- 9:35Speaker 1: a 12th or 13th pick, you know, and, and he
- 9:38Speaker 1: was going, you know, 25 for, for most of the year,
- 9:41Speaker 1: he's been a stud of a valet has been amazing.
- 9:45Speaker 1: I mean, a legitimate number two wide receiver getting solid targets,
- 9:49Speaker 1: you know, six, seven targets in that range. Juwan Johnson
- 9:54Speaker 1: has been solid. But, yeah, to make the case for captains,
- 9:57Speaker 1: I think is a little bit difficult outside of like,
- 10:01Speaker 1: you know, Bijan, you know, Drake London, you know, Chris Alave,
- 10:04Speaker 1: Tyler Schuch, but then we run into the issue. Those
- 10:07Speaker 1: guys are the most expensive guys on the slate. So
- 10:10Speaker 1: is there enough value to get overweight on those guys?
- 10:13Speaker 1: And I think that's the real issue on the slate.
- 10:15Speaker 1: So you're almost forced, especially making a lot of lineups,
- 10:17Speaker 1: to bring some of these other guys into the conversation.
- 10:20Speaker 1: So yeah, those are just my like initial thoughts on it.
- 10:23Speaker 1: So you can kind of take it away from there. Yeah.
- 10:26Speaker 3: I mean, clearly I like Bijan. How much more to
- 10:29Speaker 3: the field am I going to be able to get
- 10:31Speaker 3: overweight on? I doubt too much. Like you said, a
- 10:34Speaker 3: lot of those bills will be similar. Salary's tight on
- 10:37Speaker 3: this slate. So it's pretty tough to get different there.
- 10:39Speaker 3: I think Olave is my favorite. Everything, like you said,
- 10:42Speaker 3: he's just been so good this year is receiving props.
- 10:45Speaker 3: 82 and a half yards, or 86 and a half yards,
- 10:48Speaker 3: excuse me. Then it's Drake Lundin, 82 and a half.
- 10:51Speaker 3: And then no one above 45 and a half on
- 10:53Speaker 3: this slate. So I think this is a smash spot
- 10:55Speaker 3: for Olave. You can even drop down from Bijan to Olave.
- 11:00Speaker 3: Just straight up 1v1 in the captain spot is a
- 11:02Speaker 3: way to get difference. Tyler Shucks, the other one. Those
- 11:05Speaker 3: are my clear three favorites. He can run. He can
- 11:08Speaker 3: spread it out to an extent. Noah Fant is a
- 11:11Speaker 3: decent bit of injury news on this slate. He's used
- 11:14Speaker 3: his tight ends a lot this year, both of them.
- 11:17Speaker 3: And when Fant's in, I think it raises my interest
- 11:20Speaker 3: at Chuck Captain just because he can spread it out more.
- 11:22Speaker 3: Like in the red zone, Fant's a big option. When
- 11:25Speaker 3: Chuck is going to be on the winner at Captain,
- 11:27Speaker 3: more than likely he's probably throwing two touchdowns at two
- 11:30Speaker 3: different receivers at least and then maybe running one in.
- 11:34Speaker 3: And it just gets more condensed if there's no Noah Fant.
- 11:37Speaker 3: So I like Chuck regardless at Captain. That is something
- 11:40Speaker 3: interesting to note. For me, though, I will be hoping
- 11:43Speaker 3: Fant's in for that After that, Drake London, I mean,
- 11:46Speaker 3: 82 and a half receiving yards. He's expensive. 7% though
- 11:50Speaker 3: at captain coming off the game that he had though
- 11:52Speaker 3: in a close spread is something I'll be interested in.
- 11:56Speaker 3: It's tough after that, but I mean, there's I think
- 11:58Speaker 3: three clear ones for me. It's Vele at 7,800. It's
- 12:03Speaker 3: like a sticker shock. Why is he all the way
- 12:04Speaker 3: up at 7,800? He's been phenomenal this year. Targets in
- 12:07Speaker 3: every single game have been great. He's playing almost 90%
- 12:10Speaker 3: of snaps. He's always on the field. And he's like
- 12:13Speaker 3: the number two option for Shuck when defense is trying
- 12:16Speaker 3: to take away Olave. Bailey's been really good for him.
- 12:19Speaker 3: So I think I want to overspend for Bailey. Again,
- 12:23Speaker 3: looking at the props and his price, he seems overpriced.
- 12:26Speaker 3: But I think he has a... I mean, it's clear
- 12:28Speaker 3: he has a really good role on this team. And
- 12:29Speaker 3: he's someone I can get a little different at. Captain,
- 12:33Speaker 3: the other two, Jawan Johnson and Kyle Pitts. Again, same
- 12:37Speaker 3: thing kind of can be said about Jawan Johnson. He's...
- 12:41Speaker 3: Prop's not great. Let's see. He's plus 235 to score,
- 12:44Speaker 3: which is the same as Bailey and fine. 45 and
- 12:46Speaker 3: a half receiving prop. Bailey's 43 and a half. It's
- 12:50Speaker 3: just the same type of thing. You hope he scores
- 12:51Speaker 3: two touchdowns and he's showing to be 3% on that captain.
- 12:56Speaker 3: The last one, it's tough to make a case, but
- 12:58Speaker 3: I guess I'll do it. Kyle Pitts, 5,800. Again, Penix
- 13:02Speaker 3: is back. The offense is moving the ball more. 5,800
- 13:05Speaker 3: and 1% on that captain. When you don't want to
- 13:08Speaker 3: spend all the way up, if you're getting into different
- 13:09Speaker 3: roster construction, It's been terrible for him. We're still only
- 13:13Speaker 3: a couple weeks in, though. Second week with Pennix, yeah, 1%, 5,800
- 13:18Speaker 3: I think is worth taking a shot on. We know
- 13:20Speaker 3: the upside he does have, and he's showing to be
- 13:23Speaker 3: really low on Netflix, too.
- 13:25Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, pretty much on the same page.
- 13:27Speaker 1: I mean, Bijan, it's one of those, what was the slate?
- 13:30Speaker 1: Maybe it was the Bijan slate or the Gibbs slate.
- 13:33Speaker 1: It's like these guys, when they're on these slates, it's
- 13:35Speaker 1: a different conversation than everyone else. They're going to be
- 13:39Speaker 1: so highly owned. They have the massive slate breaking upside.
- 13:43Speaker 1: So yeah, Bijan, yes, play him as much as you
- 13:46Speaker 1: can for sure. After him, like Chris Alave, if there's
- 13:49Speaker 1: like a big difference in ownership between those two, you know,
- 13:53Speaker 1: we're showing, you know, about half the ownership for Alave
- 13:57Speaker 1: as to Bijan. Easier to make a play on Alave,
- 14:01Speaker 1: easier to get overweight on Alave. So that's one situation
- 14:05Speaker 1: that I'm definitely interested in. Alave being half owned than B.
- 14:09Speaker 1: John in the captain's spot. If this number does hold
- 14:11Speaker 1: true for Drake London at 8%, I hope that's the case.
- 14:15Speaker 1: We talked about it in the opening, basically. It's like, man,
- 14:20Speaker 1: with Penix in there, he knows to get this guy
- 14:22Speaker 1: the ball, and that's what he did last time. And
- 14:26Speaker 1: if this number is true, I just wanted to see.
- 14:31Speaker 1: It's 10 targets, 9 for 194. against Green Bay last
- 14:36Speaker 1: week and you know Green Bay is obviously not great
- 14:38Speaker 1: but it doesn't matter for these top wide receivers like
- 14:40Speaker 1: uh people are afraid to play CeeDee Lamb uh yesterday
- 14:43Speaker 1: because of Houston's great defense how did that work out
- 14:46Speaker 1: for him 17 catches boom boom boom these top wide
- 14:48Speaker 1: receivers I just don't think there's any there's anyone that
- 14:52Speaker 1: can really slow them down when they have a good
- 14:53Speaker 1: connection with their quarterback so I hope this number is
- 14:56Speaker 1: true I do suspect it will come up a little
- 14:58Speaker 1: bit probably closer to 10 but still a great great
- 15:01Speaker 1: play um you know tyler shuck fine with him it
- 15:04Speaker 1: does concern me a little bit if this you know
- 15:07Speaker 1: 20 percent number is true but i definitely want him
- 15:09Speaker 1: in the pool uh he has guys he can spread
- 15:12Speaker 1: it out to it could be 303 to alave vele
- 15:17Speaker 1: juan johnson and then you have now you know kamara
- 15:20Speaker 1: in there as well who's in there to catch passes
- 15:23Speaker 1: uh essentially so um Definitely fine with shock. And then like, it's,
- 15:27Speaker 1: what do you do after that? I'm glad you brought
- 15:29Speaker 1: up valet. It's like, it's an uncomfortable price tag and
- 15:32Speaker 1: it's going to be uncomfortable for flex too. When we
- 15:34Speaker 1: go through and just talk position by position 7,800 form,
- 15:38Speaker 1: people are not going to want to do that on
- 15:39Speaker 1: the slate.
- 15:40Speaker 2: So I do like him up top. He's getting a
- 15:43Speaker 2: lot of work.
- 15:44Speaker 1: If there is a scenario where the, the Falcons kind of,
- 15:49Speaker 1: you know, try, they're not going to be able to,
- 15:50Speaker 1: but if they pay more attention to a lava and
- 15:53Speaker 1: try to slow them down, maybe Vele is the guy
- 15:56Speaker 1: that can benefit from that and you look at it
- 15:59Speaker 1: nine seven six so averaging over seven targets per game
- 16:04Speaker 1: like that's that's great you know if that's the case
- 16:07Speaker 1: he could easily go six for 120 in a touchdown
- 16:11Speaker 1: and he has a chance to be optimal captain so
- 16:14Speaker 1: like him and then Jawan Johnson was the other guy
- 16:17Speaker 1: that I had in mind two touchdown upside he can
- 16:20Speaker 1: get the two and the one thing I like about
- 16:23Speaker 1: tight ends when I look at them, like, are they,
- 16:25Speaker 1: are they converting their targets into receptions in the last
- 16:29Speaker 1: two weeks? It's, you know, four for four and eight
- 16:31Speaker 1: for eight, four targets, four catches two weeks ago, eight targets,
- 16:36Speaker 1: eight receptions last week. I love that. Like he can
- 16:39Speaker 1: catch the ball. So those are my two guys outside
- 16:43Speaker 1: of the main ones, Vele, Jonathan, the pitch thing. I
- 16:48Speaker 1: get it, but, man, like I'm not actively building it.
- 16:51Speaker 1: If it's in my 150 and I get a little bit,
- 16:53Speaker 1: I'd be fine. But, yeah, it's ugly for Pitts. But, yeah,
- 16:57Speaker 1: those guys, those main guys, it's tough to look past.
- 17:00Speaker 1: The few situations I'm looking at amongst those top viewers,
- 17:05Speaker 1: Olave being half owned as Bijon and then Drake London
- 17:09Speaker 1: potentially being like the lowest owned of that top group.
- 17:11Speaker 1: And if that's the case, I'd like to make a
- 17:13Speaker 1: play on Olave and Drake London.
- 17:15Speaker 2: So it's kind of what I'm thinking. Anything else? to
- 17:18Speaker 2: add there?
- 17:19Speaker 3: Yeah, just touching on this, like it's not for me.
- 17:21Speaker 3: We're going to touch on the running back room. I'm
- 17:24Speaker 3: really hesitant to play these Saints guys. Not only like
- 17:29Speaker 3: even when A-Chan, again, it feels so weird to say,
- 17:32Speaker 3: but like when he played the first two weeks, they
- 17:34Speaker 3: still were rotating. Like week one, A-Chan played 59% of snaps.
- 17:37Speaker 3: Keandre Miller, 29%. C.J. Donald, 17%. Week two, 54%. A-Chan
- 17:39Speaker 3: Kamara came back, 29%. Donaldson, 29%. Last week, A-Chan got
- 17:48Speaker 3: hurt in that game, but no one played over 40%
- 17:50Speaker 3: of snaps. They just continue to rotate in the backfield.
- 17:55Speaker 3: So it feels pretty– it's hard for me to see
- 17:58Speaker 3: that one of these guys getting like 20-plus carries or
- 18:01Speaker 3: 15-plus carries or just completely taking over the backfield, which
- 18:05Speaker 3: at these prices, 7K and 5K, those are real price tags.
- 18:08Speaker 3: You have to do something. So I don't plan on
- 18:11Speaker 3: playing any Saints running backs at captain.
- 18:14Speaker 1: Yeah, it is wild, though, how– these running backs, they
- 18:17Speaker 1: go from being, being the guy to being just a guy,
- 18:21Speaker 1: like within the matter of one season. I mean, Kamara
- 18:23Speaker 1: was a 20 plus touch guy recently. Now all of
- 18:27Speaker 1: a sudden, like he's a 10, 10 touch guy, which
- 18:30Speaker 1: makes it very difficult for this sort of format where
- 18:34Speaker 1: you need those big.
- 18:35Speaker 2: Huge performances. And he doesn't, he's not a guy that.
- 18:38Speaker 1: Can go out there and break off huge plays in the,
- 18:41Speaker 1: in the run game. So the way he gets there
- 18:44Speaker 1: is by volume. It's always been the case with Kamara, really.
- 18:47Speaker 1: It's a volume-based play, but he's just not getting the volume.
- 18:51Speaker 1: So it just makes it difficult from that perspective. So
- 18:56Speaker 1: we'll go in and kind of hit on each position.
- 18:58Speaker 1: You can go and we'll talk about quarterbacks first. Obviously,
- 19:02Speaker 1: we talked about them a little bit. I really didn't
- 19:04Speaker 1: say much about Penix. I mean, I'm assuming we didn't
- 19:07Speaker 1: talk about him in the captain spot. I have no
- 19:09Speaker 1: interest in the captain. I'm assuming you don't. When he
- 19:11Speaker 1: has the big game, When he has a good game,
- 19:14Speaker 1: it usually means Drake London has.
- 19:16Speaker 2: A massive game.
- 19:17Speaker 1: So it's really hard to play Penix in the captain spot.
- 19:22Speaker 1: But in the flex, I think he's fine. A low projection, 14.
- 19:25Speaker 1: But I don't know. He looked good to me. Like
- 19:28Speaker 1: I said, I took the L on him. I didn't
- 19:31Speaker 1: think he played as well as he did. First game back,
- 19:34Speaker 1: he looked fine. Good in the flex for playing Drake
- 19:38Speaker 1: London captain teams. I think he's a great guy to
- 19:41Speaker 1: include in the flex. So just talk about these quarterbacks
- 19:44Speaker 1: and how you're going to use them overall.
- 19:46Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not playing Penix at captain, like you said.
- 19:49Speaker 3: It's so concentrated when he gets there, it's either probably
- 19:52Speaker 3: going to be a dump off to Bijan. It takes
- 19:54Speaker 3: it peppering London. Maybe Pitts finally has this game. Like I,
- 20:00Speaker 3: if I am playing him at captain, like I would
- 20:01Speaker 3: probably want three of Bijan, Drake, London, Dotson, Pitts, Zacchaeus,
- 20:08Speaker 3: maybe you can even add like Charlie Warner and stuff too.
- 20:11Speaker 3: I'd feel like he would have to be throwing touchdowns
- 20:13Speaker 3: and multiple guys, London, not getting the bonus pits, not
- 20:16Speaker 3: getting the bonus. It feels like you need too much
- 20:18Speaker 3: to get to go right for that. But yeah, and
- 20:20Speaker 3: the flex for sure. Tyler Shuck though, you can play
- 20:22Speaker 3: him everywhere. I mean, his game log is last five games, 26, 22, 31, 22, 24.
- 20:26Speaker 3: This dude's balling. He has rushing upside as well at home,
- 20:32Speaker 3: big game. I, you, Ownership's there, though. It's not like
- 20:35Speaker 3: I'm breaking the news to anyone. He's been a great quarterback,
- 20:39Speaker 3: a great fantasy quarterback, and I definitely am playing him
- 20:42Speaker 3: in both spots today.
- 20:44Speaker 1: One thing just to add, because we always try to
- 20:46Speaker 1: point this out whenever a quarterback's coming in low-ish owned
- 20:49Speaker 1: in the flex, it could be the case tonight for Pennex.
- 20:53Speaker 1: We're showing right around 30%. That's a low number for
- 20:59Speaker 1: a quarterback in the flex, and I think a lot
- 21:00Speaker 1: of it has to do with roster construction, the lack
- 21:03Speaker 1: of value. and the studs that we want to play
- 21:06Speaker 1: in the captain spot. So touch on that real quick.
- 21:08Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. Also it comes down and we've seen
- 21:11Speaker 3: it the last two slates pretty much, or pretty much,
- 21:14Speaker 3: I don't know if it's last two or two or
- 21:15Speaker 3: four or whatever, but Rogers and Case Keenum, two oldies
- 21:19Speaker 3: that cannot move that people did not want to click
- 21:21Speaker 3: at captain, even really in the flex Case Keenum was
- 21:23Speaker 3: low on in the flex Rogers lower own than most
- 21:27Speaker 3: they got there. And if you do get there, like
- 21:28Speaker 3: those two slates, you get paid handsomely if you are
- 21:31Speaker 3: in first place. So if you're playing a lot of teams,
- 21:34Speaker 3: probably a mistake to X out, but again, he's not
- 21:36Speaker 3: going to run. He really needs to spread out the ball.
- 21:38Speaker 3: You need a lot to go right. Um, but it's
- 21:41Speaker 3: one game. We see crazier things happen.
- 21:44Speaker 1: Yeah. Agree.
- 21:45Speaker 2: All right.
- 21:45Speaker 1: We'll talk about some of these, uh, running back plays
- 21:49Speaker 1: touched on Bijan, obviously in the, the captain conversation, you know,
- 21:53Speaker 1: touched on Kamara Miller, but let's kind of talk about
- 21:56Speaker 1: how we can apply these guys in the flex position.
- 21:59Speaker 1: You know, one thing for sure that was interesting, uh,
- 22:03Speaker 1: Last slate, the Falcons were on. It was the solo
- 22:06Speaker 1: shipper for 500,000. And one of the main roster construction
- 22:10Speaker 1: pieces was Bijan captain.
- 22:12Speaker 2: And he had Brian, it was our guy at Knowlesman.
- 22:14Speaker 2: He had a.
- 22:14Speaker 1: Bijan captain and then Brian Robinson Jr. in the flex.
- 22:18Speaker 1: That's what made that lineup pretty unique. People aren't typically
- 22:22Speaker 1: doing that sort of thing. So that's an interesting point.
- 22:25Speaker 1: You got the split in work between Kamara and Miller. Miller, $ 2, 000 cheaper.
- 22:30Speaker 2: Kamara, $ 7K. Miller, $ 5K.
- 22:32Speaker 1: I think it's a good opportunity if you do land
- 22:36Speaker 1: on this sort of build that has Kamara in the flex.
- 22:39Speaker 1: You can drop down to Miller. I mean, basically, it
- 22:42Speaker 1: could essentially be the same play for $ 2, 000 less, and
- 22:44Speaker 1: then you're eliminating a bunch of dupes. So talk through
- 22:47Speaker 1: these running backs in the flex.
- 22:50Speaker 3: Yeah, Falcon side, you can play Bijan, Brian Robinson. We've
- 22:53Speaker 3: seen it work. In those game scripts, usually it is
- 22:57Speaker 3: the Falcons leading. That's definitely what it was in that
- 22:59Speaker 3: Packers situation. Had a decent lead because yeah, the more
- 23:04Speaker 3: they're winning, the less inclined they are to just run
- 23:06Speaker 3: Bijan in the ground and they still want to run
- 23:08Speaker 3: the football, control the clock. But even in closer games,
- 23:10Speaker 3: Brian Robinson is out there a little bit. 25%, 48%,
- 23:13Speaker 3: 27% is a snaps. And that week too, when he
- 23:15Speaker 3: had 48% was a blowout. So that number is not true.
- 23:17Speaker 3: So Yeah, you'll probably get like six and a half rushing. Actually,
- 23:25Speaker 3: I can see what his rushing attempt prop is. No,
- 23:29Speaker 3: DraftKings doesn't even have it posted.
- 23:30Speaker 2: For Brian Robinson?
- 23:32Speaker 3: Yeah, 29 and a half is yards. I wanted to
- 23:34Speaker 3: see his rushing attempt prop. But yeah, I mean, he's
- 23:36Speaker 3: not really going to catch passes. You need him to
- 23:38Speaker 3: get a touchdown more than likely when you play him.
- 23:41Speaker 3: But he's 3,800 on a slate without much value. So
- 23:44Speaker 3: he's fine. I don't love it. My favorite is Keiondre Miller, though,
- 23:48Speaker 3: for sure. I'm not convinced. I do think Kamara... is
- 23:52Speaker 3: going to be– yeah, he's going to probably get more
- 23:54Speaker 3: rushing attempts. He's going to be out there on the
- 23:56Speaker 3: first play, probably get the first drive or two. But, again,
- 23:59Speaker 3: week one, Keiondre Miller was decently involved when Travis Achan
- 24:04Speaker 3: was there. Again, Kamara was hurt week one. But the
- 24:08Speaker 3: Saints have shown willingness to rotate running backs really heavily.
- 24:12Speaker 3: CJ Donaldson down here, when he's on the field, he
- 24:15Speaker 3: pretty much never gets the ball, which is not great.
- 24:17Speaker 3: But at 1,400 on a slate– where there is no value.
- 24:21Speaker 3: We're going to talk about Bryce Lance for 400 more,
- 24:24Speaker 3: Zaccheaus for 600 more, Zachariah Branch, Hooper, Dodson. Those guys
- 24:30Speaker 3: are all going to be played way, way more than C.J.
- 24:33Speaker 2: Donaldson.
- 24:34Speaker 3: So 1,400, we haven't seen this situation without A. Chan,
- 24:38Speaker 3: what they're going to do. So a lot of unknowns
- 24:39Speaker 3: in the Saints backfield that when that's the case, give
- 24:42Speaker 3: me the guys that are 2K cheaper and then a
- 24:45Speaker 3: lot cheaper than Kamara. Eye test wise, Kamara hasn't looked great. Ownership,
- 24:49Speaker 3: he's showing double than these guys. You can leave the
- 24:52Speaker 3: money in a vacuum. It's definitely Keandre Miller. Then I'll
- 24:55Speaker 3: probably say Donaldson and then Kamara when it comes down
- 24:58Speaker 3: to breaking down this range. That's a real price tag
- 25:01Speaker 3: at 7K. Give me Jawan, Johnson, Vele, and then give
- 25:05Speaker 3: me the Stars and Scrubs build, I guess, more. It's
- 25:08Speaker 3: hard to click that name for me.
- 25:09Speaker 1: The 7K price tag, especially on this slate where it
- 25:12Speaker 1: could be high scoring, like it's We always use the term,
- 25:16Speaker 1: I think it's very applicable for a lot of these slates.
- 25:18Speaker 1: And I know you and I both use the term
- 25:20Speaker 1: where it's like, you got it at that price. You
- 25:21Speaker 1: have to do something.
- 25:22Speaker 2: We say, right.
- 25:23Speaker 1: Depending on the slate, depending on the price, like, all right,
- 25:26Speaker 1: this guy has to do something. Kamara is do something.
- 25:29Speaker 1: Plus you got to do something plus something else at 7k.
- 25:33Speaker 1: It's not going to be good enough to get in
- 25:36Speaker 1: my eyes, 50 yards and a touchdown.
- 25:37Speaker 2: That's probably not good enough.
- 25:39Speaker 1: Like you have to do, he's at the price point
- 25:41Speaker 1: where it's like, you got to do something. plus something
- 25:45Speaker 1: else to be the guy you need. So I'm down
- 25:48Speaker 1: on him too. I hope that gap in ownership remains again,
- 25:51Speaker 1: another situation where it's like double the ownership. Kamara's ownership
- 25:56Speaker 1: is double Miller, but I guess to this point here,
- 26:00Speaker 1: you know, thoughts on just fit.
- 26:01Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 26:01Speaker 1: You definitely don't have to play either.
- 26:03Speaker 3: Sure.
- 26:03Speaker 1: Like fading them is a great play and I'll likely
- 26:07Speaker 1: I'm going to be under on Kamara and probably over
- 26:10Speaker 1: on Miller. But if you're hand-building like don't, Definitely don't
- 26:13Speaker 1: need to come here at all if you don't want to.
- 26:15Speaker 1: But my preferred play would definitely be Miller. Good with
- 26:20Speaker 1: Brian Robinson Jr. I mean, he's price where if he
- 26:23Speaker 1: gets in the box, like, you know, that's good enough
- 26:25Speaker 1: at $ 3, 800.
- 26:26Speaker 2: So, yeah, pretty much on the same page there.
- 26:30Speaker 3: One other thing, just looking at Kendrick Miller 5K price tag,
- 26:34Speaker 3: we have him at about 15%. Nick Folt, $ 5, 400, 20%.
- 26:35Speaker 3: Daniel Carlson, $ 4, 800, 21%. Both defenses are looking at 14%.
- 26:43Speaker 3: So right in that same range, you have other people
- 26:47Speaker 3: that are going to be more popular. So I think
- 26:49Speaker 3: he's a fine pivot. Again, it is relatively close when
- 26:53Speaker 3: it comes to those prices. But, I mean, a skill
- 26:55Speaker 3: position player like Miller, you can drop from Folk to Miller,
- 26:59Speaker 3: leave $ 400. And, yeah, I'm not convinced when it's all
- 27:03Speaker 3: said and done that Kamara might even out-snap him. So
- 27:06Speaker 3: we'll see how the game goes. I don't think the
- 27:07Speaker 3: Saints really know. I think it's probably going to be
- 27:09Speaker 3: more of a, ride the hot hand, like who's doing well.
- 27:12Speaker 1: Miller was actually more active in the passing game last
- 27:16Speaker 1: game than Kamara was. And like you play Kamara for
- 27:19Speaker 1: his ability to catch passes, Miller was more active in
- 27:24Speaker 1: that game last week than Kamara was. So it's one
- 27:26Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind when looking at it too. But,
- 27:29Speaker 1: you know, you don't need to go to either if
- 27:32Speaker 1: you're hand-building teams. There's definitely other plays to potentially look at.
- 27:37Speaker 1: So go to wide receiver– And, you know, a lot
- 27:41Speaker 1: of these guys we talked about, or the top ones
- 27:44Speaker 1: we talked about when discussing Captain Olave, Drake London, Vele.
- 27:49Speaker 2: I mean, to me, Vele at 7,800, I think is
- 27:52Speaker 2: a really good play.
- 27:53Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised. We're showing 21%. I wouldn't be
- 27:56Speaker 1: surprised if this drops to upper teens. I mean, it
- 28:00Speaker 1: doesn't really change much anyway, but I think it could
- 28:02Speaker 1: be lower than the 21%. It's just an awkward price.
- 28:06Speaker 1: for a guy that has always been a value guy,
- 28:08Speaker 1: a bargain guy, people are not going to want to
- 28:11Speaker 1: click that name at 7,800.
- 28:13Speaker 2: And a lot of.
- 28:14Speaker 1: People probably won't be able to click that name because
- 28:16Speaker 1: of the way they're building their teams with Bijan up
- 28:19Speaker 1: top or Tyler Shuck in the captain spot. Like you
- 28:22Speaker 1: start running out of salary quick. So Bailey to me
- 28:25Speaker 1: definitely stands out. We talked about a lobby. We talked
- 28:27Speaker 1: about London, you know, two absolute studs do have some
- 28:32Speaker 1: cheap guys though, that are getting, relatively decent projections. Dotson
- 28:37Speaker 1: at 3K as a projection of six. You already touched
- 28:41Speaker 1: on Bryce Lance at 1,800 projected for five. And then
- 28:46Speaker 1: you have Branch and Zaccheaus, 2,400, 2K. They have two,
- 28:51Speaker 1: three fantasy points. Not a big number, obviously, but when
- 28:55Speaker 1: you're talking showdown, it does come into play. And then
- 28:58Speaker 1: Kevin Austin Jr., $ 800 as a projection of of two.
- 29:03Speaker 1: So we do have some potential cheap plays on the slate.
- 29:09Speaker 1: Dotson is only one that, you know, Dotson and Lance,
- 29:12Speaker 1: 19% for Dotson, 16% for Lance and everyone else, you know,
- 29:17Speaker 1: not much single digits, but are some cheap guys here
- 29:21Speaker 1: that are potentially in play.
- 29:22Speaker 2: So talk to me about this position.
- 29:24Speaker 3: I wish I had a hot take. My only take
- 29:27Speaker 3: is these guys are over-owned and it's not even close,
- 29:30Speaker 3: but it just comes back to the lack of value
- 29:32Speaker 3: on the slate and needing to complete your team. Like sure.
- 29:36Speaker 3: Bryce Lance, he plays 70 ish percent of snaps, which
- 29:40Speaker 3: is really good. And that's why he's like, he's going
- 29:42Speaker 3: to be on the field more than anyone even close
- 29:45Speaker 3: to his range. But yeah, like we have it at 16%,
- 29:47Speaker 3: to be honest, I'm not wouldn't be surprised if it's
- 29:50Speaker 3: like 24%. Cause when people go to this range and
- 29:54Speaker 3: look at projection, there's going to be no other pivots
- 29:57Speaker 3: that people want to click. It's kind of why I
- 29:59Speaker 3: mentioned C.J. Donaldson, 1,400, is someone that I have interest
- 30:03Speaker 3: in because he's a pivot off all these cheapies. Jahan
- 30:05Speaker 3: Dotson sitting at like 20%. I mean, we talk about it.
- 30:10Speaker 3: It's so concentrated. It's Bijan. It's London. It's Pitts. And
- 30:13Speaker 3: then they rotate these guys as the wide receiver. Well,
- 30:17Speaker 3: Dotson is the wide receiver too. We'll play like 65%
- 30:20Speaker 3: of snaps, but still Zaccheaus rotates in. Chris Blair rotates in.
- 30:24Speaker 3: Zachariah Branch rotates in. They're probably going to do nothing.
- 30:28Speaker 3: More than likely, they won't be on the optimal. But
- 30:31Speaker 3: I mean, seeing 18% from Dotson, seven Zaccheaus, four Branch,
- 30:36Speaker 3: and one for Blair. To be honest, I think I
- 30:39Speaker 3: just prefer Zaccheaus, Branch, Blair as a way to get different.
- 30:43Speaker 3: I know I'm jamming in expensive chalk. I need to
- 30:46Speaker 3: get different in places. You can leave a little money
- 30:49Speaker 3: doing that. You can full punt Chris Blair. He gets
- 30:51Speaker 3: a zero. And maybe that's still fine to be optimal
- 30:54Speaker 3: because all the studs on the slate's as all this
- 30:57Speaker 3: does on the slate smash. If the mid-tier busts and
- 31:00Speaker 3: you have three of Bijan, London, Penix, Chuck, Olave just
- 31:06Speaker 3: completely go off, you need maybe three or four of
- 31:09Speaker 3: those guys. And then two complete punts that score one
- 31:11Speaker 3: or two might be enough. I could see it being
- 31:14Speaker 3: a slate like this. So I'm going to hate doing it,
- 31:18Speaker 3: but I'm going to play some Zaccheaus. some branch, I
- 31:22Speaker 3: think some Blair, and it really is just hoping I
- 31:25Speaker 3: get a catch, maybe two catches, but it allows what
- 31:28Speaker 3: it allows me to do. And that's jamming all the
- 31:30Speaker 3: studs above. So I think Dotson Lance, I'm nervous at,
- 31:34Speaker 3: at ownership. Cause I think they get steamed because you
- 31:36Speaker 3: really have no choice when you want to go dumpster
- 31:38Speaker 3: diving and fit in the studs and it's going to
- 31:40Speaker 3: really concentrate around them. Yeah.
- 31:44Speaker 1: And I was just kind of looking around just to
- 31:46Speaker 1: see like how true these numbers are and.
- 31:50Speaker 3: Actually makes things like 35% for, for Lance, which seems hot.
- 31:56Speaker 2: Just because there's a couple of them.
- 31:57Speaker 1: Like there's, there's Lance, there's Dotson, like there's, there's other guys,
- 32:01Speaker 1: not just the one. So it's going to be, I
- 32:04Speaker 1: think it will be probably higher when, when people build.
- 32:06Speaker 1: I mean, like you said, you know, this is an
- 32:09Speaker 1: important part. You go in there and you just run teams.
- 32:10Speaker 1: Don't change anything. You're going to get a ton of
- 32:12Speaker 1: these guys. So yeah, So if you're someone that does
- 32:15Speaker 1: use an opt-up miser, make sure you use the min-max
- 32:18Speaker 1: or adjust the projections a little bit so you're not
- 32:20Speaker 1: getting as much or kind of even.
- 32:22Speaker 2: It out the numbers.
- 32:23Speaker 1: Like bring Branch up, bring Zaccheaus up so you're getting
- 32:26Speaker 1: some of those guys instead of Lance or, you know, Dotson,
- 32:30Speaker 1: the other guy that's getting a ton. So it's just
- 32:33Speaker 1: a couple things you can definitely do.
- 32:35Speaker 2: But I'm with you, man.
- 32:36Speaker 1: Like if these guys are coming in over 20%, Like
- 32:39Speaker 1: these guys are legitimate candidates for a goose egg, like
- 32:43Speaker 1: legit candidates. Like you wouldn't be surprised at all if
- 32:47Speaker 1: they get zero. So you got to be very careful.
- 32:50Speaker 1: And again, if you are using an optimizer, it's going
- 32:52Speaker 1: to force these guys in. So make sure you're kind
- 32:55Speaker 1: of moving things around.
- 32:56Speaker 2: We did get an update here. So let me just
- 32:58Speaker 2: make sure nothing changed.
- 33:00Speaker 3: Yeah. When you're saying that again, that's kind of like
- 33:03Speaker 3: it's talked about CJ Donaldson. I'm going to keep coming
- 33:05Speaker 3: back to these guys or to him mainly because He's
- 33:08Speaker 3: cheaper than all those receivers we talked about. He's going
- 33:10Speaker 3: to be on the field. And yeah, any of those
- 33:13Speaker 3: wide receivers, you can just drop right down to Donaldson.
- 33:17Speaker 3: Like all those guys have zero for sure. And so
- 33:21Speaker 3: does Donaldson. But hey, one carry for eight yards is
- 33:24Speaker 3: at least 0.8. Like these guys have to catch something
- 33:26Speaker 3: at the receiver position. So yeah, when we're seeing Donaldson
- 33:30Speaker 3: 4% and Lance maybe 25%. some way you can get different.
- 33:35Speaker 3: But man, it's tough at receiver. The reason it's tough
- 33:38Speaker 3: is because A, the Saints use tight ends very heavily.
- 33:42Speaker 3: And on the Falcon side, it's Drake London, and it's
- 33:46Speaker 3: pretty much nothing after that. So it's concentrated on both
- 33:49Speaker 3: these sides. So good luck guessing the right wide receiver
- 33:52Speaker 3: three today.
- 33:53Speaker 1: Yep.
- 33:54Speaker 2: And I guess we'll go to tight end. And it's
- 33:57Speaker 2: pretty wild that.
- 34:00Speaker 1: At this point, the big news on the slate is
- 34:02Speaker 1: whether or not Noah Fant plays, and it is actually
- 34:04Speaker 1: pretty big news, which is kind of crazy to say.
- 34:07Speaker 1: I mean, Fant has been involved in this offense, coming
- 34:11Speaker 1: off a four-target game, four catches, 33 yards, two touchdowns
- 34:17Speaker 1: for 19 fantasy points. Week one, four catches.
- 34:21Speaker 2: Oh, that's wild. Is this legit? Four for 33 both
- 34:24Speaker 2: these weeks?
- 34:25Speaker 1: Four for 33, and he had a touchdown.
- 34:27Speaker 2: In week one.
- 34:28Speaker 1: So he has a 13 fantasy point game, a 19
- 34:30Speaker 1: point fantasy game.
- 34:33Speaker 2: Obviously they're using multiple tight ends.
- 34:36Speaker 1: If he is out, you know, the guy is Oscar
- 34:40Speaker 1: dealt who kind of already has a projection.
- 34:43Speaker 2: He's been on the field. Obviously you kind of follow
- 34:45Speaker 2: that stuff a little closer in terms of snacks, but.
- 34:47Speaker 1: He's been involved, not heavily involved, but he's been on
- 34:50Speaker 1: the field. He's $ 400. This would alleviate some of the
- 34:54Speaker 1: ownership from some of those, wide receivers that we just
- 34:57Speaker 1: talked about. But I'm assuming Delp will get steamed to
- 35:01Speaker 1: a very high number if Fant were to be ruled out.
- 35:05Speaker 2: If Fant is in, I'd like him. I'd play him.
- 35:08Speaker 1: And maybe people build teams early and, you know, just
- 35:11Speaker 1: exclude him because he is the only questionable guy on
- 35:14Speaker 1: the slate. But, you know, we talked about DeJuan Johnson,
- 35:18Speaker 1: good with him, especially Tyler Shuck, captain teams, great play.
- 35:22Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts Sr.
- 35:23Speaker 2: probably in the flex.
- 35:25Speaker 1: He probably– need to take a look at him because
- 35:27Speaker 1: of the salary savings. Like we don't have many cheap guys.
- 35:31Speaker 1: He's 5,800, not getting really a ton of ownership stolen.
- 35:33Speaker 1: He's showing 16%. So I like him quite a bit
- 35:37Speaker 1: in the flex. He's going to be priced similarly to.
- 35:40Speaker 2: Those kickers that we'll get to next.
- 35:42Speaker 1: The kickers will have more ownership than him, but I
- 35:45Speaker 1: like pits where man just scored me one touchdown and
- 35:48Speaker 1: we're good. Austin Hooper is out there 2,800 and, So
- 35:54Speaker 1: a lot to talk about at this position, but yeah,
- 35:57Speaker 1: a lot of it is around whether or not Noah
- 35:59Speaker 1: Fant plays, which is kind of incredible.
- 36:01Speaker 3: It is incredible, but yeah, Noah Fant, I mean, I
- 36:04Speaker 3: assume if anyone's watching Saints games, like you probably get
- 36:07Speaker 3: a little tilted hoping it's Jawan Johnson or Olave or whatever.
- 36:11Speaker 3: Noah Fant has had a quite a big role on
- 36:13Speaker 3: this team. They definitely play some two tight ends. So
- 36:16Speaker 3: if Noah Fant plays 4,400 is most definitely overpriced for
- 36:18Speaker 3: his role. But, I mean, he's showing like 5%. And, again,
- 36:23Speaker 3: I mean, he scored a touchdown already. So I would
- 36:26Speaker 3: probably overspend for Fant as a way to get different
- 36:29Speaker 3: in that kicker defense range a little bit, Keandre Miller range.
- 36:33Speaker 3: You can leave money from all of them and play him. Yeah,
- 36:36Speaker 3: Pitts is fine. Jawan Johnson's fine. There's really not much
- 36:40Speaker 3: to add about them. I think with these backups, though, yeah,
- 36:43Speaker 3: Oscar Delp's in play even if Fant is in and
- 36:47Speaker 3: his ownership would stay down. Again, $ 400, like $ 0. He
- 36:51Speaker 3: gets you zero, but all the studs smash. Again, I
- 36:53Speaker 3: could see it happening on this slate. We haven't seen
- 36:55Speaker 3: it much recently, but it has happened in the past
- 36:58Speaker 3: couple of years where zeros all the way below are
- 37:01Speaker 3: on the winner. Charlie Warner.
- 37:03Speaker 2: There's been some softer pricing.
- 37:05Speaker 1: In years past where the pricing was a little more aggressive,
- 37:08Speaker 1: the zeros would fly, but there are some pretty high
- 37:10Speaker 1: price tags on this slate. I do think that sort
- 37:16Speaker 1: of lineup could potentially win on a slate like this
- 37:18Speaker 1: where we do have four or five legitimate studs. And
- 37:22Speaker 1: if they all go off and then like the zeros
- 37:24Speaker 1: in play. So I think this is a slate where
- 37:26Speaker 1: it could play.
- 37:27Speaker 3: Yeah. You need it to be concentrated. Like you said,
- 37:29Speaker 3: with the studs, which we have, you need pricing to
- 37:31Speaker 3: be pretty tight, which we have. And then, yeah, it's
- 37:34Speaker 3: mainly comes down to if kickers, if these teams aren't
- 37:37Speaker 3: really kicking field goals and they're scoring points on offense.
- 37:40Speaker 3: So the kickers and defenses don't get there. You're probably
- 37:43Speaker 3: in for a stars and scrub slates. The Charlie Warner
- 37:45Speaker 3: at 600, I'm going right back to him. He actually
- 37:48Speaker 3: out-snapped Kyle Pitts by one last week, 61% of snaps.
- 37:52Speaker 3: Austin Hooper was the one that got the touchdown, which
- 37:55Speaker 3: was annoying. And again, I'm fine playing him at 2,800.
- 37:58Speaker 3: But I think at this tight end position, Charlie Warner
- 38:01Speaker 3: might be my favorite at ownership, which is really gross.
- 38:04Speaker 3: But again, it's a pivot from the lances of the world. Zakiya, Stottson,
- 38:09Speaker 3: you can get even cheaper for them. Delp is in
- 38:13Speaker 3: play if fans in, if fans out. To be honest,
- 38:17Speaker 3: I like Delp less. I mean, he's $ 400, so I
- 38:19Speaker 3: would get some, but if you guys are talking 20%,
- 38:22Speaker 3: and I'm not convinced it gets that high, maybe. I mean,
- 38:26Speaker 3: if that's the case, though, 20% Delp seems pretty terrible. $ 400,
- 38:30Speaker 3: I guess, is $ 400, but everyone would be on the
- 38:33Speaker 3: same roster construction. Charlie Warner, I think, would be even
- 38:36Speaker 3: a better play.
- 38:38Speaker 1: In my opinion, the full on like $ 400 plays, it's
- 38:42Speaker 1: very rare where they get like the extreme, extreme ownership.
- 38:46Speaker 2: Like could it get close to that?
- 38:50Speaker 3: I mean, maybe like 12% or so.
- 38:52Speaker 1: Yeah. I was thinking maybe like 15 or something like
- 38:54Speaker 1: at the highest, but it is a slave where we
- 38:58Speaker 1: need value. Like we're starving for value and we want
- 39:00Speaker 1: to play the studs. So like I could see it
- 39:03Speaker 1: being higher than it's been, but it's very rare for these,
- 39:05Speaker 1: full-on punts to get all the way up to that
- 39:08Speaker 1: 20% number.
- 39:09Speaker 3: Yeah, and I mean, to be honest, maybe I'm completely
- 39:11Speaker 3: wrong because we have him at 12% right now with
- 39:13Speaker 3: Fant in. Again, I think that feels a.
- 39:16Speaker 2: Little hot, but maybe not. Yeah, I think it's high.
- 39:18Speaker 1: Other sources have it lower. I think it's probably lower.
- 39:23Speaker 1: There's no way this guy's 12% if Fant is in.
- 39:25Speaker 1: He's had how many fantasy points this season?
- 39:28Speaker 3: I think that just shows that... what this slate is,
- 39:31Speaker 3: that people are fine taking your zero at the farthest punt.
- 39:35Speaker 1: I just don't think 12% of the field is fine
- 39:38Speaker 1: with that. He has 1.8 fantasy points on the season.
- 39:41Speaker 2: If Fant is in, that's his role. He's the 1.8
- 39:43Speaker 2: fantasy point guy. If you're lucky. Yeah, exactly.
- 39:50Speaker 1: And I don't think, I don't think it gets to, to,
- 39:53Speaker 1: to that number. And I mean, the reaction time too,
- 39:56Speaker 1: comes into play too. I mean, where we're talking to
- 39:58Speaker 1: people that are more than just novice players, people that
- 40:02Speaker 1: are in this to make money, the advanced sort of players,
- 40:05Speaker 1: there's a big portion of people that are not building
- 40:08Speaker 1: their lineups after this news comes out.
- 40:10Speaker 2: That's why these.
- 40:11Speaker 1: Plays never fully get to that super high ownership, but
- 40:15Speaker 1: it just goes to show you what the slate is
- 40:17Speaker 1: like in terms of value that we're having an in-depth
- 40:20Speaker 1: conversation about Oscar Delp. Yeah.
- 40:23Speaker 3: It feels like every, I mean, last Thursday it was
- 40:25Speaker 3: about Charlie Warner and then Austin Hooper got in the box.
- 40:28Speaker 3: So I'm hoping that we're just a week late. And again,
- 40:30Speaker 3: the higher own Delp is the more I like Charlie
- 40:33Speaker 3: Warner as a pivot needs is definitely right on this though.
- 40:36Speaker 3: Like I think if fans out, Oscar Delp comes up
- 40:40Speaker 3: in ownership. I would like him more in Olave teams
- 40:42Speaker 3: and Chalk captain teams and London captain teams. Who's still
- 40:46Speaker 3: going to get some ownership at captain, but it's clear
- 40:49Speaker 3: that Bijan's going to probably be double or he's going
- 40:52Speaker 3: to be a lot higher on than everyone else at captain.
- 40:54Speaker 3: A lot of Bijan captain teams will have Delp just
- 40:57Speaker 3: because it makes a lot more work there. So the
- 40:59Speaker 3: tight end position is... I think it's solid in the
- 41:03Speaker 3: sense of that there's a lot of guys. Both of
- 41:05Speaker 3: these teams are going to rotate multiple different tight ends,
- 41:07Speaker 3: run 12 personnel, and you need value on the slate.
- 41:11Speaker 3: So Charlie Warner, Oscar Delp, I guess, overspending for Fant
- 41:15Speaker 3: if he's in as a pivot in that mid-range ability
- 41:18Speaker 3: to leave money. Man, Jawan Johnson's price tag's up there.
- 41:22Speaker 3: I think I almost like him more at captain or nothing. Again,
- 41:26Speaker 3: I'm going to play a lot of teams, so I'm
- 41:27Speaker 3: not going to have him at flex, but 7,400 is
- 41:30Speaker 3: just like get me all the way there and smash
- 41:33Speaker 3: or just hope you're not optimal because you're in a
- 41:35Speaker 3: weird range.
- 41:37Speaker 2: Yeah, I can definitely see that. I like that point. Kickers, defense.
- 41:41Speaker 2: Let's see.
- 41:42Speaker 1: Kickers are priced where they normally are. I got the Saints, 4,200. Falcons, 3,600.
- 41:48Speaker 1: Anything standing out kicker defense-wise.
- 41:52Speaker 3: Wouldn't be surprised to see like us. So what do
- 41:55Speaker 3: we have? We have 19% full, 21% Carlson. maybe put
- 41:59Speaker 3: a 5% bump to both guys. Again, it just comes
- 42:03Speaker 3: down to who else are you clicking in that mid-range? Nobody.
- 42:06Speaker 3: I think the kicker is going to be the most appealing.
- 42:09Speaker 3: I think defenses will be lower owned, for sure, like
- 42:12Speaker 3: we're showing. So any kicker team, Carlson or Folk, you
- 42:15Speaker 3: go down to Falcons or Saints, that's one way to
- 42:18Speaker 3: get difference. If you are trying to play Lance, can
- 42:21Speaker 3: he outscore kickers and defenses in a vacuum? If you
- 42:23Speaker 3: think that, plug these guys in, go to Lance. But
- 42:26Speaker 3: when I play the kickers, because I do like them today,
- 42:28Speaker 3: but it's like, how can I play them to get different?
- 42:31Speaker 3: Plug in Bailey, take Bailey out and go to Nick Fulk.
- 42:34Speaker 3: Plug in Juwan Johnson, take Juwan Johnson out, go to Carlson, Kamara,
- 42:38Speaker 3: whatever it is. Like, they could score all, outscore them
- 42:41Speaker 3: in a vacuum there. And I have been thinking about it.
- 42:44Speaker 3: On a slate where pricing is so concentrated, on a
- 42:47Speaker 3: captain slate that is so concentrated, is this one of
- 42:50Speaker 3: these days? I mean, we saw, what, two kickers, Matt
- 42:53Speaker 3: Gay yesterday and– Vikings kicker Reichard, like five field goals.
- 42:58Speaker 3: If you get that in a slate like today, I mean,
- 43:00Speaker 3: you very well could see them at captain. So what
- 43:03Speaker 3: are your, what's your take on that? How many teams
- 43:05Speaker 3: do you need to play to mix in some kicker captain?
- 43:07Speaker 1: Probably not opposed to it because we want, like you
- 43:10Speaker 1: kind of opened up the show talking about some of
- 43:12Speaker 1: these like mid tier captain builds, but there's not a
- 43:15Speaker 1: lot of.
- 43:16Speaker 2: Mid tier guys to put in those, in those builds.
- 43:20Speaker 1: So, I mean, what do you need from a kicker
- 43:22Speaker 1: captain team, uh, for to to win like you need
- 43:27Speaker 1: kind of similar to if you're you know playing the
- 43:29Speaker 1: the 400 punt in the flex you need those studs
- 43:32Speaker 1: to have really good games but not fully explode and
- 43:36Speaker 1: you need four to five field goals probably from from
- 43:39Speaker 1: the kicker and then you're going to need those other
- 43:41Speaker 1: expensive guys and in the flex could that happen on
- 43:43Speaker 1: the slate uh yeah.
- 43:46Speaker 3: You need the punts to suck too The lands, all
- 43:49Speaker 3: those guys down below not to do anything.
- 43:51Speaker 1: So you need the punts to not do anything. You
- 43:53Speaker 1: need the studs to get there but not fully explode
- 43:56Speaker 1: for a massive, massive number. Yeah, I don't think I'm
- 44:01Speaker 1: opposed to it. Again, if I built my teams and
- 44:03Speaker 1: I ended up with some kicker captain tonight, I'm good
- 44:06Speaker 1: with it. And these are guys that are– or fine,
- 44:09Speaker 1: let's go to the box scores, right?
- 44:10Speaker 2: That's what we like to do.
- 44:12Speaker 3: When you're looking at the box score, when they're kicking
- 44:14Speaker 3: four or five field goals, that clearly means the offenses
- 44:17Speaker 3: aren't scoring the touchdowns, which then limits the full upside
- 44:21Speaker 3: that these studs do have. So I can talk myself
- 44:24Speaker 3: into it.
- 44:24Speaker 1: Yeah, full two 10-point games so far, like double digits.
- 44:28Speaker 1: Add on a couple more, we're in that 18 range. Carlson,
- 44:33Speaker 1: he definitely has a big leg, has a 13 fantasy
- 44:35Speaker 1: point game week.
- 44:38Speaker 2: Was that week two against the Ravens? Three for three
- 44:42Speaker 2: in that game.
- 44:43Speaker 1: So, yeah, I could I could potentially do it on
- 44:45Speaker 1: the slate where we're lacking value all around. And I
- 44:48Speaker 1: don't love captain outside of the studs on the slate. Right.
- 44:52Speaker 2: Like the one.
- 44:53Speaker 3: Per two percent they're projected for. You have four percent.
- 44:56Speaker 3: You're double the field. We're not saying go all in. Yeah,
- 45:00Speaker 3: I like them.
- 45:00Speaker 1: In terms of the defenses, though, it's like this is
- 45:02Speaker 1: a game people aren't going to want to play defense.
- 45:04Speaker 1: And that's when I might have a little, like I
- 45:07Speaker 1: typically don't love defense, but on a slate where we
- 45:09Speaker 1: don't have value, most people are going to look at
- 45:11Speaker 1: this as an offensive game. We have a big total
- 45:14Speaker 1: sitting at 48 and a half, 49. You know, I
- 45:18Speaker 1: would be a little more prone to playing defenses today
- 45:21Speaker 1: for that reason. Like everyone's viewing this as a high
- 45:23Speaker 1: scoring game, but we don't have the value and we
- 45:26Speaker 1: know what happens with defense.
- 45:28Speaker 2: It's literally maybe just like one play.
- 45:30Speaker 1: So I'm not saying I love the defenses, but I'd
- 45:33Speaker 1: be a little more prone to playing them today than
- 45:37Speaker 1: I typically am.
- 45:39Speaker 2: If that makes sense.
- 45:39Speaker 3: Yeah. Agree. They're a way to get different and chalkier stuff. Yeah.
- 45:44Speaker 1: All right.
- 45:45Speaker 2: Let's pull up FanDuel.
- 45:47Speaker 1: I'm going to kind of do this on the fly
- 45:49Speaker 1: and see if anything stands out.
- 45:51Speaker 3: Noah Phan, Jahan Dodson, higher price than Kyle Pitts.
- 45:56Speaker 2: Yeah. So that is, where is Noah Phan?
- 46:00Speaker 3: No offense, 4-8.
- 46:03Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts, 4-6. Yeah, Kyle Pitts, yeah, 4-6. That's appealing.
- 46:08Speaker 1: The first thing, sorted by price, Alvin Kamara, $ 9, 400. I
- 46:11Speaker 1: don't know how in the world you click that.
- 46:16Speaker 2: How do you click that?
- 46:17Speaker 1: What's the case for Kamara on FanDuel at $ 94?
- 46:20Speaker 3: He's playing 70% of snaps instead of $ 45. The projected...
- 46:27Speaker 3: We haven't seen this without A-Chan really yet. He did
- 46:29Speaker 3: get hurt, but Maybe just everyone's wrong and the Saints
- 46:32Speaker 3: completely switch it up week four and he's their workhorse.
- 46:35Speaker 3: Go get it, Kamara. I don't see that happening, but
- 46:38Speaker 3: that's the case. There's unknowns what the Saints are going
- 46:40Speaker 3: to do.
- 46:41Speaker 2: Juwan Johnson, 8,600.
- 46:42Speaker 3: At least the case there is he can catch two touchdowns.
- 46:46Speaker 3: I'd rather that than Kamara. Miller is at 7,400.
- 46:48Speaker 2: These are some tough, tough clicks.
- 47:00Speaker 1: Uh our guy pits 7k i like the the valet
- 47:04Speaker 1: price tag that sounds out nice 7k.
- 47:07Speaker 3: Yeah i mean there's just no it's it's a similar
- 47:09Speaker 3: slate to fan or to draft kings in the sense
- 47:12Speaker 3: of values bad like it's going to condense around bryce
- 47:14Speaker 3: lance at 2800 um kyle pitts is 4600 the kickers
- 47:19Speaker 3: are definitely going to get some ownership if fant misses
- 47:22Speaker 3: delp at 1600 will be a little higher owned I'm
- 47:26Speaker 3: seeing Warner all the way down as a punt at 1K.
- 47:29Speaker 3: It's going to be another kind of stars and scrubs,
- 47:31Speaker 3: and people are going to be fine if they get
- 47:33Speaker 3: two from a complete punt because people are going to
- 47:36Speaker 3: just jam in Chuck, Olave. And when you just sort
- 47:40Speaker 3: this slate by projection and you take the top four
- 47:42Speaker 3: highest guys, Bijan, London, Chuck, Olave, and Penix, I couldn't
- 47:48Speaker 3: even say the top four really, Bijan, London, Olave, and Chuck,
- 47:52Speaker 3: you have a huge drop-off when you get to the
- 47:54Speaker 3: fifth-highest in terms of projection, and it astronomically falls off.
- 47:59Speaker 3: So it's really hard to see at least two of
- 48:02Speaker 3: those four not being in the optimal today in one
- 48:05Speaker 3: way or another.
- 48:06Speaker 1: Any interest in Penick's MVP on FanDuel without the full-point PPR?
- 48:13Speaker 1: He's 11-6, but I think he could make the case
- 48:17Speaker 1: for it on FanDuel opposed to DK.
- 48:20Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, his price is a little better, too,
- 48:23Speaker 3: in the sense of, let me just see this quick. Yeah,
- 48:26Speaker 3: there's a little more gap, I guess, on FanDuel to DraftKings.
- 48:30Speaker 3: So I'd be fine with it. It's mainly, I think,
- 48:34Speaker 3: just because of how highly owned Shuck and Bijan will be,
- 48:37Speaker 3: like even more so on FanDuel, that it's just like
- 48:40Speaker 3: the ultra leverage pivot. Like Bijan might be 45, 50%
- 48:44Speaker 3: at MVP. So when that's the case, Penix leverages off
- 48:48Speaker 3: the most. Half point PPR, you'd rather that because if
- 48:52Speaker 3: Trey Cullinan catches 10 balls, It goes a lot farther
- 48:55Speaker 3: on DraftKings and FanDuel. So, yeah, I think the more
- 48:57Speaker 3: I think about it, it's a way to get different.
- 49:00Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of like that. I kind of like
- 49:02Speaker 2: him a little bit.
- 49:03Speaker 1: He's going to be a low-owned quarterback MVP on FanDuel,
- 49:08Speaker 1: I think, is always going to be somewhat interesting.
- 49:11Speaker 2: And it would have been the.
- 49:12Speaker 1: Case on that Case Keenum slate.
- 49:14Speaker 2: I don't know if he was the highest.
- 49:17Speaker 1: Scoring on the slate. I can't imagine anyone played him
- 49:20Speaker 1: up top. He had to be low on. I definitely
- 49:22Speaker 1: have some interest in him on FanDuel just in.
- 49:25Speaker 2: That MVP spot.
- 49:26Speaker 1: In the flex too, but I would not play him
- 49:29Speaker 1: in captain on DK, but I would play him MVP
- 49:33Speaker 1: on FanDuel. Any final thoughts before we get out of here?
- 49:39Speaker 3: I mean, it's a good game. One and a half
- 49:41Speaker 3: point spread, division, both teams one and two, but have
- 49:44Speaker 3: shown some life. And again, the Saints could easily be
- 49:48Speaker 3: two and one. That Lions game week one was a
- 49:51Speaker 3: good one. So I wouldn't build until Noah Fant injury news.
- 49:54Speaker 3: I mean, it's weird to say in 2026, but any
- 49:57Speaker 3: showdown slate, one little piece of news changes a lot,
- 50:01Speaker 3: especially when we're debating playing value with guys projected for
- 50:05Speaker 3: one point. like a Charlie Warner and stuff. So when
- 50:08Speaker 3: that's the case, then any piece of news matters. So yes,
- 50:11Speaker 3: stick around for it. We'll have all of our content up,
- 50:14Speaker 3: of course, and good luck. Yeah.
- 50:16Speaker 2: Good luck to everyone.
- 50:18Speaker 1: Let's finish out week four on a strong note and then,
- 50:21Speaker 1: you know, make sure to tune in next week for
- 50:23Speaker 1: all our shows, all our content.
- 50:25Speaker 2: Appreciate the support. Good luck. Let's get those ship it
- 50:28Speaker 2: nation logos to the top of leaderboard.