Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 494 - 4/17/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
- 0:14welcome to episode 494 of the all systems go sports betting
- 0:20podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host Josh Applebaum.
- 0:30What's going on, everyone? Happy Fade the public Friday.
- 0:33That's right, it's Friday, TGI Friday.
- 0:35The weekend is upon us here, guys.
- 0:37We got a lot to get to before we steam off into the weekend
- 0:41because we're going to get right back to betting Major League
- 0:44Baseball. A little touch and go.
- 0:46Good days, bad days. Couldn't really get a a good
- 0:49sustained winning streak going out for much of the early part
- 0:51of the year. But this week, hopefully, knock
- 0:53on wood. We're really hitting our stride,
- 0:55guys, because. We get to recap of last night in
- 0:58the second proofs on their winning day, which is great to
- 1:00see. We're going to get right back at
- 1:02it today. MLB A3 pack of plays.
- 1:05I got 3 money line bets for you guys.
- 1:07I'm going to see if we can try to go 2 and 1 eek out a winning
- 1:09day. Of course, want to thank
- 1:11everyone for tuning into the rhythm rundown last night.
- 1:14Hear me talk about all the time. Hopefully those of you listening
- 1:17out there, maybe tune into one or two or you know, you got some
- 1:19free time. You're waiting for the games to
- 1:21start. You get right into Twitter.
- 1:23You can listen to me and my buddy Kate Harper walk through
- 1:26all the. Games on rhythm and.
- 1:27We're looking at the games last night it was kind of rough
- 1:29because you know, Thursday nights when football's going on
- 1:32the rhythm rundown's easy. We got the Thursday Night
- 1:34Football game. We got, you know, maybe college
- 1:36to talk about a lot, a lot to, to bite and chew on.
- 1:39But last night there were only like 2 games in MLB and we're
- 1:41like, OK, what are we going to talk about?
- 1:43And I was looking at the Padres game because obviously.
- 1:47They're just, you know. Magical right now finding.
- 1:49Ways to win and. Electric fashion.
- 1:51Comeback fashion. But I didn't love them for a
- 1:53podcast play because the line did move a little bit towards
- 1:56Seattle last night. That was like a very short
- 1:58Seattle. -110 up to like -120. And then the more I looked at it
- 2:03and we talked about on the Rhythm Rundown, I keep seeing
- 2:06all these Rhythm Green Star recommendations on San Diego.
- 2:10So I'm like, OK, you know, Seattle's got the line move.
- 2:13But San Diego, There's something triggering here with the Rhythm
- 2:16AI model telling us to buy low and take San Diego.
- 2:19Around a + 105 + 100 home dog. Better offense, good at home,
- 2:24You know, inflated dog. I wouldn't call that a sharp
- 2:26play, but it's a bit of a value play.
- 2:28Wouldn't you know what we highlighted on the Rhythm
- 2:30Mundown last night? Padres did it again.
- 2:32Even though the line moved against them, the Rhythm AI
- 2:34model came through. Pods won five to two.
- 2:37The rhythm model also like the under in the Colorado Houston
- 2:40game that was an extremely popular over.
- 2:43Like 90% of bets went Colorado Houston over last night.
- 2:47The game stayed under. 3:00 to 2:00 sells another rhythm
- 2:50rundown hit so. As always, if you're looking for
- 2:52more bets or you're looking for more analysis or insight into
- 2:56how to use rhythm to your advantage.
- 2:57Remember every. Thursday night, Kate and.
- 2:59I break down the board and you can TuneIn every Thursday, 6:00
- 3:02to 7:00 PM Eastern Time, streamed live on Twitter now.
- 3:06Because it's a Friday. I want to.
- 3:08Mention as always no podcast on the weekends.
- 3:11Every now and again I'll get people saying oh where's your
- 3:12pod today? I'm like, Oh, my wife would
- 3:14divorce me, especially now that we have a baby.
- 3:17It's, you know, it's, it's taking the baby on a stroller
- 3:19walk. It's going to Home Depot.
- 3:21Actually. I'm very proud.
- 3:22Because we're getting a shed. You know You know what gets you
- 3:25excited when you're almost 40 years old and your new dad
- 3:28getting a Reed's Ferry shed. If you're in New England, Reed's
- 3:31Ferry, there's like a, you know, people know what that means if
- 3:33you're out of New England. You have no clue what that means
- 3:36but we took took our baby. One of her.
- 3:38First trips outdoors into the world to Reed's fairy shed to.
- 3:42Pick out a shed. So that's me.
- 3:44Excited to sweat baseball? And and get a shed, a dream come
- 3:47true in my backyard. But anyway, well that's a whole
- 3:49long winded answer of me saying no pot on the weekends.
- 3:52But you still can get the ASG best bet picks from the Juice
- 3:56Real app. They'll always be there.
- 3:58I'll post it and you can support the team.
- 4:00By getting those picks for $4.99.
- 4:02Cents a week, or you can read the sharp reports that are at
- 4:05for. Visen.com, I still rate those on
- 4:07the weekend, so I just want to mention that.
- 4:09Before we dive in our sweatshirt tonight, guys, we did it again.
- 4:12Don't let the boys get hot. Fourth straight winning day.
- 4:15Went 2 and 1 + 0.63 units. Had a had a tough start to the
- 4:20day because the Cincinnati Reds just could do absolutely nothing
- 4:24against. Rupe in San Francisco.
- 4:26And the Reds, at one point we're getting no hit.
- 4:28And then the Reds also, the game was still nothing, nothing.
- 4:30I think it was like the maybe the 6th inning, they had first
- 4:33and second, nobody out, couldn't advance, the runners couldn't
- 4:36score. I think it was De La Cruz
- 4:38grounded in double. Play in the very.
- 4:40Next inning after De La Cruz booted one and there's a pop up
- 4:43these. Are the things you always
- 4:44remember when you lose a bet. There's a pop up on the left
- 4:46side where the catcher ran super fast to try to get it, but key
- 4:50Brian Hayes, who's, you know, no bat, but especially in the
- 4:53field, he's supposed to be pretty good.
- 4:55He like lollygagged. I noticed he didn't even run to
- 4:57try. To get it.
- 4:58They don't catch the foul pop up.
- 5:00De La Cruz boots it. 3 Nothing loss with Cincinnati.
- 5:03So I'm like. OK, here we go.
- 5:05But luckily, beauty of a three pack, even if you lose.
- 5:07The first one if you. Can get the next two, you can
- 5:10still have a winning. Night that's that's exactly what
- 5:12we did because. Tampa Bay had an epic comeback
- 5:15for us guys. It was not an.
- 5:17Easy. One Tampa Bay, it was a tied.
- 5:19Game they kept clawing back. 8th inning they gave up a home run
- 5:23to Vargas. Big first baseman.
- 5:26I use a top prospect from the Dodgers.
- 5:28To get down 3 to 2 going. Into the 9th I'm like, OK, this
- 5:30ain't good. Junior Caminero massive solo
- 5:34Homer to tie. The game up.
- 5:35And then the White Sox. They'd started.
- 5:38To be the White Sox they kept. Walking guys, there were two
- 5:40bases loaded loaded. Walks Tampa came in and shut the
- 5:44door and 15 to 3:00 so nice hit there with a raise but the one
- 5:48that was. A nail biter, and it really
- 5:49shouldn't have been, was the Guardians.
- 5:51Guardians came through with a four to two win against
- 5:53Baltimore, but that was not an easy sweat, guys, it looked.
- 5:56Easy at one point. Because we were talking about
- 5:58this kid and I remember. On the pod mentioning this
- 6:01Messick lefty. Who I'd never heard of, but I
- 6:04did some research. He was a second round pick.
- 6:06He had some great. Stats In the minors he pitched
- 6:09an absolute. Gem and he actually had a no
- 6:10hitter going. Into the 9th inning.
- 6:12They're up for nothing and it's like, OK, let him have the no,
- 6:15no, he was like 105. Pitches maybe, which you
- 6:18actually don't see a lot of. Pitchers go.
- 6:19Above 100 anymore. But they.
- 6:21Leave him in. He gives up two straight hits
- 6:24and then the Orioles just get hit after hit after hit, and
- 6:27they actually threatened to tie the game or even take the lead.
- 6:31But there was an epic play by the. 2nd baseman there.
- 6:35To to dive. Make a play and end the game.
- 6:37So thank God the the Guardians hung on for a four to two win.
- 6:41So overall with Reds letting us down, but Cleveland and Tampa
- 6:44Bay coming through a 2 to one A2 in one night, 0.63 units, we
- 6:49will take it. And as always, guys.
- 6:51Again, the the challenge is when you won.
- 6:53Four straight winning days. Let's try to get a fifth day.
- 6:56Four straight losing days. Challenges to get back in the
- 6:58green. I was like one of the challenges
- 7:00to try to stay hot. Because you know you won't stay
- 7:02hot forever. But you try to make it last as
- 7:04long as you can. So that being said, three pack
- 7:07overall, let's waste no more time and dive into our sweats
- 7:10here. For tonight.
- 7:11So first put on the board that I want to hit on is an 8:10 PM
- 7:14Eastern Time first pitch interleague matchup here between
- 7:17the Saint Louis Cardinals and the Houston Astros.
- 7:20Let's set the stage. Talk splits, line moves, rhythm,
- 7:23juice reel. And I'll give you my play for
- 7:24this one. So cards come in 10 and eight on
- 7:27the year. Bit of a surprise because they
- 7:29had. One of the lowest win totals and
- 7:30expected to have a down. Year but did take two or three
- 7:33against the Guardians. They won that series finale 5 to
- 7:353. As a -. 110 home pick em.
- 7:38You know, the Astros, 8 and 12 struggled a bit so far.
- 7:42They did just take two or three, though against the Rockies, but
- 7:44couldn't get the sweep. Lost three to two as we just.
- 7:47Mentioned last night as a -, 175 home.
- 7:49Favorite. So pitching match up here for
- 7:52tonight. We have the Cardinals going with
- 7:53the righty Kyle Leahy. He's one and two with a 5.14
- 7:57ERA. You know the Stroh's are going
- 7:59to go with the righty Peter Lambert.
- 8:01Lambert, he was looking at him earlier doing some research.
- 8:05He was a second round pick back in the day, supposed to be
- 8:08pretty good, went to Colorado, kiss of death.
- 8:11He didn't pitch at all in the majors last year.
- 8:14Back in 2024 with Colorado, he was two and five with a 5.72
- 8:17ERA. But in the minors this year,
- 8:20before getting called up, he had a 1.84.
- 8:22ERA. So you know, spoiler here, I'm
- 8:25hoping. He pitches well tonight.
- 8:26Because I'm going Stroh's. Why am I going Astros?
- 8:29Well, little bit of line moving in their favor.
- 8:30Houston. Opened around a minus. 135 home
- 8:33favorite Saint Louis around a + 115 row dog and sharps have
- 8:38quietly, just very subtly pushed that line a little bit further
- 8:42toward Houston because we've seen the strokes go up from
- 8:44-135. Up to -140.
- 8:46Some shops even touching. As high as -145.
- 8:50I really like the split at Circa.
- 8:52In particular, the wise guys in Vegas look to be pretty heavy on
- 8:55Houston here because the Astros at Circa are only getting 33%.
- 8:59Of money line bets, but 89% of money line dollars.
- 9:03So a big low bets higher dollar. Discrepancy from the sharps in
- 9:06Vegas on Houston again I. Mentioned this because it's
- 9:09always just, you know, something interesting.
- 9:11For me to monitor, you know? Did the run lines also come
- 9:14through? Did the team only win by 1?
- 9:16Well, I'm on Houston. By the way -138 at FanDuel.
- 9:20But I did notice. A lot of run.
- 9:21Line support for the Astros? They're -1 and half at +1. 55
- 9:26pretty big payout here. To win by two or more.
- 9:29But they're only getting 42% of spread bets.
- 9:31But 86? Percent of spread dollars at DK.
- 9:34Now couple system matches on Houston, one would be that
- 9:37interleague favorite. So lack of familiarity
- 9:39benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
- 9:41But if you look. At home favorites off a loss in
- 9:43the opening game of a new series Astros would match.
- 9:46Here because they. Lost yesterday.
- 9:47They're 18 and 960. 7 percent, 10%.
- 9:51ROI this year, if you're an interleague home favorite who
- 9:53missed the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who
- 9:56also missed the playoffs the previous season, that system is
- 9:59112 and 7062. Percent with a 3% ROI since.
- 10:03The start of last. Year.
- 10:05Now, hopefully Lambert pitches well.
- 10:07Obviously he's a bit of a. Wild card didn't pitch in the
- 10:09bigs. Last year.
- 10:10But I'm going to bank on Houston's bats, hopefully to get
- 10:12to Leahy. Houston is hitting 264.
- 10:15As a team, they've scored 107 runs.
- 10:18Saint Louis is only hitting 2:30.
- 10:19One as a team. Only scored eighty runs and in
- 10:22particular we got 2 righties on the bump Astros have hit.
- 10:25Better against righties. They're hitting 265 against
- 10:28righties. That's the fifth best in
- 10:29baseball. Cardinals are only.
- 10:31Hitting 221 against righties, that ranks 26th.
- 10:34So we got a lot little bit of line movement toward Houston.
- 10:36We got a really good bet split at Circa.
- 10:38We got a couple good system matches, better offense and then
- 10:41also I have three rhythm recommendations, all lighting up
- 10:45on Houston and I also have a 67%.
- 10:48This is a big. 167% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice
- 10:52Reel. Also on the Astros.
- 10:54So add it all up here guys. Astros are mostly around -140 in
- 10:58the market. Shop around.
- 11:00Fianduel offered. -138. So I took the Stroh's hopefully
- 11:04to. Get a winner here.
- 11:05At home. -138 at FanDuel. Next one for you, 9:40 PM
- 11:10Eastern Time, first pitch. Couple late games that I'll be.
- 11:14Sitting in the backroom in the baby's room with my daughter as.
- 11:17My wife gets a much needed sleep.
- 11:19That's what I look forward to nowadays, but I'm looking.
- 11:21At the White Sox, visiting the Athletics, so.
- 11:25White Sox. Come in six and 13 on the year
- 11:27just got swept by the Rays. They lost that series finale.
- 11:30As you just mentioned, which is a good.
- 11:32Thing because we were on the Rays but they lost 5 to 3.
- 11:34As a + 110 home dog. You know the A's 10 and. 9 on
- 11:38the year. They just split A4 game set
- 11:40against the Rangers dropped that series.
- 11:42Finale, however, 9:00 to 6:00 as a -. 110 home.
- 11:45Pick em. So for tonight's series opener,
- 11:48White Sox are going with the righty Davis Martin.
- 11:50He's two and one with a 2.5 OERAAS.
- 11:53Meanwhile, going with the. Veteran righty Aaron Cavalli,
- 11:56who's 2 and O with a 1.72 ERA. He's been pretty.
- 11:59Good to start the season now. What do we see across the
- 12:02market? Will this game open with the A's
- 12:04listed around a -, 145 home favorite, White Sox around a +
- 12:08125 row dog? And even though it's a
- 12:11moderately, you know, quasi moderate expensive number,
- 12:14close. To -150 sharps are laying and
- 12:17that's what I'm doing. I'm going athletics here, guys
- 12:19we've. Seen the A's get steamed up.
- 12:20-145 up to -1. 60 so 15 cent steam move in their favor you
- 12:26look over at circa in. Vegas over 90% of money line
- 12:29bets and dollars on the A's, so it tells us.
- 12:32That the wise guys in the desert are heavy.
- 12:34On the A's tonight, a lot of A's.
- 12:36Run line money as well. -1 1/2 at plus 120 because at
- 12:40DraftKings are getting 71% of spread bets 79.
- 12:44Percent of spread dollars A's would have betting system value
- 12:47as a non division favorite so lack of familiarity benefiting
- 12:51quote UN quote the better team who's.
- 12:52Expected to win. A's would match that system we
- 12:55just talked about. Home favorite off a loss in the
- 12:57opening game of a new series 18 and 960. 7 percent, 10%.
- 13:02ROI this year A. 'S once again.
- 13:05Edge at the plate, Hopefully their bats come to play.
- 13:08See if my guy Langoliers can can drop another bomb.
- 13:11But the A's are hitting 234 as a team, 78 runs scored, 310 on
- 13:16base percentage. White Sox.
- 13:17Hitting only $1.95. Sixty runs scored, 286 OBP AS4
- 13:23and three at home. I say home in quotation.
- 13:25Marks because it's Sacramento. For this year, and I think one
- 13:28more year before they go to Vegas, but the White Sox.
- 13:31Just three and seven on the road last year they were one of the
- 13:33worst Rd. teams along with the Rockies.
- 13:36Also, maybe a little bit of a schedule advantage for the A's.
- 13:39Both teams played yesterday but the A's.
- 13:42Are, you know, coming? Continuing a home.
- 13:44Stand they played at home. Still at home here today,
- 13:46whereas the White Sox were at home against the Rays and now
- 13:49got to travel. Not totally cross country, but
- 13:52you know, Midwest. To the the far West, so
- 13:54hopefully that's a bit of an advantage.
- 13:57So Add all up here guys, go with the A's, see if they can get a
- 14:00winner for us. Now here's the thing, best money
- 14:03line price I saw with the A's was -155 but always keep an eye
- 14:07out for the odds boost and the bet tokens.
- 14:10Just again, if they're going to offer it to you, you know, think
- 14:13of it as you know, like like me in Massachusetts, I have like 7
- 14:15sports books and I was actually reading how bet 365 just applied
- 14:19for a license in Massachusetts. So I'll add them when they come.
- 14:22Over my way but. When you're going to bet a game,
- 14:25yeah, you're going to, you know, bet at the book that gives you
- 14:28the best number. But if they're all similar
- 14:30numbers, you know what's going to what's going to entice you to
- 14:32bet at one book over the other? Well, they might give you an
- 14:35odds boost. They might give you a bet token.
- 14:37And I noticed. A pretty good 50.
- 14:39Percent odds boost at. FanDuel, which dropped the A's
- 14:42for. Me down from. -155.
- 14:45To -125. South again, you got those odds
- 14:48Boost. Just click the promo tab in your
- 14:49app, see what they're going to offer you.
- 14:52So I took that odds boost and I got the A's -125.
- 14:55For the purposes of the pod. You know -155 is your most
- 14:59common number, so let's. Go A's last bite of the night,
- 15:029:40 PM Eastern. Time first pitch the.
- 15:04Rangers visiting the. Seattle Mariners, now Rangers.
- 15:08Come in 10 and 9 on the year, just split.
- 15:10A4 game set against the A's we. Just mentioned that they won
- 15:13that series finale yesterday. 9:00 to 6:00 as a -. 110 Road
- 15:16pick em. On the other hand, the Mariners
- 15:188:00 and 12:00 on the year just got swept by the dads, lost
- 15:22yesterday. 5:00 to 2:00 as a -. 125 Rd.
- 15:25Favorite so pitching matchup here for tonight looks like a
- 15:28pretty good pitching matchup because.
- 15:30Jacob degrom, former Met. I'm surprised he's remained this
- 15:33healthy since he joined Texas, but he's one and O 2.87 ERA.
- 15:37This year he'll be facing the fellow ready Logan Gilbert, who
- 15:40is 1 and 2 with a four point. 18 ERA.
- 15:43For the Mariners now, what do we see across the market?
- 15:46Well, this game open. Seattle around a minus. 120 home
- 15:48favorite Texas around a + 100 row dog and it's interesting to
- 15:53see you know which direction does this line move because
- 15:55Seattle has a losing record and they just got swept by the pods.
- 15:59Rangers have a winning. Record but yet.
- 16:01Seattle is favored like you know you wouldn't you assume Texas
- 16:05better record to. Grom on the bump.
- 16:07You you should take the plus money with Texas, right?
- 16:09Or maybe the game should be closer to.
- 16:10Pick em. Well, the public doesn't know
- 16:12what to do because they remember Seattle having a good year last
- 16:15year, going deeper in the postseason.
- 16:17But again, you know Texas is plus money and they got to grom
- 16:20on the. Bump.
- 16:21So if you look at the splits right now at DK, it's basically
- 16:245050. But what do we always talk
- 16:26about? 5050 ticket count.
- 16:28Theoretically, in a vacuum, a line should not move at all
- 16:31because you would assume odds makers have balanced action.
- 16:33So we don't have to bring the number up or down set the
- 16:35perfect number. However, sometimes you see a
- 16:385050 ticket split in which the line shouldn't move but yet it.
- 16:42Does move, and that's what we're seeing here.
- 16:44Cuz even though it's 5050, this line has moved up towards
- 16:47Seattle, guys, Seattle's gone. From -120 up to -130.
- 16:51That tells me we got a 5050 sharp line move.
- 16:54On the Mariners. Now, in particular, if you want
- 16:57to get technical about it, at DraftKings, Mariners are getting
- 16:5952. Percent of money line bets.
- 17:01But they are getting 64%. Of money line dollars.
- 17:05So tickets are basically even, but nearly 2/3 of the.
- 17:09Money is on the Mariners, and that lines up with that line.
- 17:11Move toward the Mariners. Then we get into our system.
- 17:14Matches home favored off a loss. Opening game, a new series, same
- 17:18two matches we just talked about with Houston.
- 17:21And with the athletics, that matches.
- 17:23With the Mariners here. So that's 18 and 960. 7 percent,
- 17:2610%. ROI this year if you take that
- 17:29system and then you also look at OK, did the home favorite awful
- 17:32loss in the opening game of new series.
- 17:33Also make the. Playoffs the previous year,
- 17:36which would match with Seattle. That system then improves to
- 17:3812:00 and 5:00. 71 percent 14. Percent ROI this year.
- 17:43Lastly, we have a really, really low total of 6 1/2 because you
- 17:47got 2 good pitchers on the bump. But that. 6 1/2 would be
- 17:50correlative betting value towards Seattle with the.
- 17:52Fair amount of expected runs scored, more likely to come
- 17:54from. Quote UN Quote The better team
- 17:56was. Expected to win.
- 17:57Another thing I'm going to bank on with Seattle is Home Rd.
- 18:00because they've been God awful on the road. 1:00 and 8:00.
- 18:03But they are 7 and four at home so hopefully they get back.
- 18:05Home and get back on track here, knock on wood.
- 18:08Let's go, Gilbert. Pitch well.
- 18:09Let's get the offense hopefully to get to the ground.
- 18:12But then you add in two more big factors from you guys.
- 18:15Number one good sharp mush edge from our friends.
- 18:18At Juice Field 20. Percent sharp mush edge.
- 18:21In favor of the Mariners. And then even better.
- 18:24This is one of the top rhythm recommended plays of the day.
- 18:26Because I have all three of my rhythm recommendations on
- 18:29Seattle, and two of those three recommendations are green.
- 18:33Star smart signal recommendations.
- 18:35Where you see that little green lightning bolt?
- 18:37Tells you that the AI model really likes the Mariners
- 18:40tonight so. Add it all up again.
- 18:42They just got swept by the pods. That's.
- 18:44OK with us because Adam had the pods in most of those games.
- 18:48But hopefully we can. Get the Mariners back on track
- 18:51in the Pacific Northwest. I got Seattle -130 at Fanatics.
- 18:56So Astros, Mariners and the A's see.
- 18:59If we can get 2 out of 3. And finish off the week.
- 19:02With five straight winning days, wouldn't that be nice?
- 19:04So as always guys, wrapping up the part of the pod here at the.
- 19:08End. I always want to start first by
- 19:09saying thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
- 19:12you for tuning in, thank you for grinding in the arena with me
- 19:15every single day through the UPS.
- 19:16And the downs, the good and the bad.
- 19:18The hot streaks, the cold. Struggling times we.
- 19:22Just got to keep grinding, never get too high or too low and.
- 19:24Continue to play the system matches.
- 19:27But if you do enjoy this pod, hopefully, hopefully you value
- 19:29the insights, whether you ride every game I I bet, or you pick
- 19:33and choose, or you just like to. Listen to the breakdowns.
- 19:35Either way, if you want to help me grow this pod, I'd very much
- 19:38appreciate it please if you got. A second or two.
- 19:41Give this podcast a five star review on.
- 19:43Spotify or iTunes? Rate and Review Leave a comment,
- 19:46Click the Follow button. Recommend the pod to a friend.
- 19:49Retweet the pod when I put it out on Twitter every afternoon
- 19:53at Josh. Under score insights, any or.
- 19:55All of those things be very much appreciated.
- 19:58Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting breakdown,
- 20:00data-driven sharp contrary and betting focusing on line moves,
- 20:04bet split system matches. AI models.
- 20:07Taking a contrarian approach, trying to make bets with our
- 20:09head and not our heart. Based on what?
- 20:11The number. The numbers.
- 20:12Are saying not what our gut bias and instinct is telling us.
- 20:15If this style of betting has appealed to you, you want to
- 20:18learn more about data-driven betting.
- 20:20You want to. Make my day by supporting the
- 20:22team. Or maybe you have someone in
- 20:23your life who could use some data-driven tips.
- 20:25Or you got someone's birthday coming up, you don't know what
- 20:28to. Get them, you know.
- 20:29Father's Day is coming up. Soon, who who knows what it is?
- 20:32But a great. Gift idea or selfishly make me
- 20:34happy. Go to Amazon.com and type in.
- 20:38The NFL sharp betting playbook or the.
- 20:40Everything Guide to sports. Betting those are the two books
- 20:43that I've written. Very proud of both their chock
- 20:45full of great. Tips and analysis.
- 20:48If you want to grab one or both of them, make sure you bring
- 20:50them the sports book. And I'll sign them for you.
- 20:52I'll buy you a beer, we'll get some ginger ale.
- 20:55If you're not a drinker, that's. OK, too, and we'll get a hot dog
- 20:58and we'll get some nachos and sweat some baseball together
- 21:01tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
- 21:03and Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
- 21:05apps. Rhythm for their AI backed
- 21:07models and predictions for. Game bets and player.
- 21:09Props also Juice Reel. So many great features.
- 21:12With Juice Reel you can sync up your sports books, get a
- 21:14running. Report card of your action keeps
- 21:16you honest. Also gives you your CLV monitor
- 21:20or indicator when. You bet a game leading up to
- 21:23first pitch it'll tell you if the lines going in your favorite
- 21:26or not. I always hopefully, you know.
- 21:27Sit. Log off the app and then an
- 21:29hour. Later login see hope OK.
- 21:31Is am I one? .2% CLV or.
- 21:33Is line going against me? But also you can get the robo
- 21:36Jackson best bet picks the sharp mush indicators.
- 21:38The arbitrage plays the shop. For the best line futures and if
- 21:41you really. Want to be a hero and.
- 21:43Make my day. Go support the pod, I'll pass
- 21:45the hat. If you want to drop in a $5.00
- 21:47bill, you can get. The ASG Best Bet picks
- 21:49exclusively and only from Juice Reel.
- 21:52You'll get them as soon as I make them.
- 21:53Hopefully beat some closing numbers, but this?
- 21:55Pod is free. And I consider that tipping your
- 21:57podcast dose. So download rhythm, download
- 22:00juice reel. Again, those plays are only 5.
- 22:02Bucks a week. And of course, give me a five
- 22:04star review in the App Store. Lastly, do you have a live odds
- 22:08page? Well, if you don't have one, you
- 22:09need one. I can't stress the importance of
- 22:12the live odds page enough because if you want to be a
- 22:14winning sports better, you got to be able to track the.
- 22:17Market. What?
- 22:18What are all the games I can bet today?
- 22:19I need live scoring, live in game wagering.
- 22:21Odds I got. To be able to to track line
- 22:23movement, what did the line open at?
- 22:25I need that static open. Column that never changes.
- 22:27That's my point of. Reference.
- 22:29Then I see all the odds currently across the market to
- 22:32the right of it and I can quickly see which direction the
- 22:34line is moving. Also, you look for shop for the
- 22:37best line opportunities, pull up the line history.
- 22:40You can do all of this with a odds logic.
- 22:42Live odds. Page so if.
- 22:43You want to give it a shot? Here's a link that's going to
- 22:46give you a 7 day free trial and 50.
- 22:47Percent off your first month of service it's.
- 22:49Oddslogic.com slash. Josh, 123.
- 22:54And next, do you know anything about Profit X?
- 22:58Well, if you don't, that's OK. But Profit X is a new sports
- 23:02betting exchange. It's an.
- 23:03App on your phone. That I've partnered with and I
- 23:05like it because it helps betters win by giving you better juice
- 23:07prices. Why?
- 23:09Because you're going up against other betters in an exchange.
- 23:12Not against the House. Who's going to make you pay -120
- 23:14-, 125. South with profit X you won't
- 23:17get booted if you win and you'll get better juice prices plus
- 23:20one. O2 minus one O 3 instead of -115
- 23:23-, 120. So if you want to download the
- 23:25Profit X app, it's PROPHET. Like a like.
- 23:30A biblical profit, not profit like you make money profit.
- 23:34But you use. Promo code Josh.
- 23:36For a 20% deposit match. So as always, guys, two final
- 23:40thoughts. One whether I see you at the
- 23:41Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
- 23:44in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun Down in Connecticut,
- 23:47at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino and Gem,
- 23:50Springfield or the Nash. And my.
- 23:52Neck of the woods on the border of Massachusetts and New
- 23:54Hampshire are out in the desert where the true grinders get
- 23:57down. Where Billy Walters sends his
- 23:59number runners. Where the lowest juice.
- 24:00Possible is found at. The South point or sweat and
- 24:03sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool when
- 24:06you. Cash a big.
- 24:07Ticket at Circa. You're going to walk up to me.
- 24:09You're going to show me a beautiful Tampa Bay ticket.
- 24:12Cleveland Guardians. Ticket.
- 24:14Guess what? First one's on me next.
- 24:16One's on you. Will post about the book Sweat
- 24:18Sharp Contrarian Plays all night long.
- 24:20So as always, guys coming off a two and one or A1 and 2A3 and O
- 24:23or an O and three, four straight winning days, four straight
- 24:26losing days. We can't get too high or too
- 24:29low. We just got.
- 24:29To stick to the model. Stick to the blueprint.
- 24:32Flat betting, avoiding parlays and playing the system matches
- 24:35when they when they present themselves.
- 24:37And avoiding the games with red flags.
- 24:39But if we can get down on the games that fit our model against
- 24:42the public with the house, with the pros flat bet, avoid those
- 24:45parlays and especially those same game parlays and get some
- 24:48CLV. If we can do that, we're going
- 24:50to be. Successful sports bettors.
- 24:52So everyone has a great Friday night.
- 24:54Have an even better weekend, guys.
- 24:56I'll be right back at. It on Monday.
- 24:58That'll be episode 495 of the All Systems.
- 25:01Go sports betting podcast. Powered by rhythm.
- 25:04Good luck everybody, and I'll see you.
- 25:06On Monday, good luck.