Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Survivor Pool | 9/30/25 | Week 4 Recap & Strategy Review

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NFL Survivor Pool | 9/30/25 | Week 4 Recap & Strategy Review · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hmm, all systems go clear, We're living.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: Mhm.
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: What is going on?
• 0:42
  Speaker 4: Everyone?
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: This is Sheets and welcome to week four recap of
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: the Survivor Pool experience. Go over what happened last week,
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: what we were on last week, what we're off last week,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Go over a.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Couple of things.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Maybe take a tiny look at week five, but we
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: usually like to reserve that for the premium show tomorrow.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: And the premium show tomorrow is going to be at
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: four pm today. It's a two because I am off
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: to the Yankee game to watch the Yankees get run
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: over by Garret Crochank properly. But nonetheless I'm going to
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: be going over for that. So again we continue on
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: this journey where we number one try to win obviously
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: number two try to learn and try to learn the
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: ins and outs of how to play this pool because again,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: very unique spot in the gambling world here where you
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: have huge pools and nobody knows how to play.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Now I say nobody.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Obviously there's some people know how to play, but you
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: have an enormous edge in learning what you're learning here
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: even above like some of the main content sites that
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: there are out there, I mean, I'm on all those discords.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: I see what people.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Are saying, and I mean, honestly, very few people have
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: a clue. So let's try to put ourselves in a
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: position where we can take and down sometime in the
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: next three years, because that's the real sweet spot. And
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: this year, if you're not playing that big, that's fine.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: You can you know, you can learn this this year,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: and I think that's worth doing. Also, So a couple
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: of things. First of all, with respect to last week,
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: we just to review. We kind of identified Houston as
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: clearly the best play in all formats. We even gave
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: it an additional ownership pump, which we knew we were
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: going to have to do. And that's the reason why
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: you have this customized tool that you can you can
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: you know, up the projections if you want to on
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: ownerships and also on win percentage. But you don't want
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: to do that, We'll get.
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: To that in a second. And you know, readjust your
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: your evs.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: The other thing, while you have this tool here, while
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: we can't customize this, you can take a look at
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: this map. And I remember this map is is really
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: really flawed. I mean, we're just taking from publicly available
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: sources and some of these future looking headlines are just atrocious.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: And that's why, you know, honestly, you come to the
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: premium show where we can go over which the where
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: the errors are, because that becomes a really really big deal.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: So any case, we thought Houston, even with the increased
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: ownership projection, their EV was about ninety or ninety one,
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: but their lack of future value was so extreme that
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: we felt that they were clearly the best play in
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: all formats. And well, they performed rather nicely and easily.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: They kind of got through without any sweat at all.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: The next play that we kind of identified is we
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: really didn't mind the Bills. I mean, I know it
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: seems a little like Uber Chalky, but you know what,
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: as you get Foyd later on into the season, EV
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: means more.
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: Each and every week.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: So I did feel that Buffalo their EV advantage over
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: everybody else was so high that I thought it was okay,
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: I mean to play them.
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: So we like that.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: We're gonna get to New England in a second. The
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: teams that we were pretty aggressively fading are all those
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: other six seven points, you know, all those other favorites
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: that had decent evs but had incredibly high future value
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: that being Detroit, Green Bay and Denver and Lac. And
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: you know when when you do this enough times, I mean,
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: you start to realize, how you know, easy those types
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: of fades are, especially in double pickpools. In single pick pools.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: I did mention that I thought some of them were okay.
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: I thought Denver was okay in single pick pools, but
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: I don't maybe sort of Detroit, but I didn't really
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: like them too much.
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: But we didn't really.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: Even like the Green Bay or Lac spots. And and
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: kind of coincidentally, those were the two teams that lost
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: on the whole on the whole car. So uh, that
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: was you know, if you didn't listen to me or
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: whatever it is, Well we'll get to that incitive. That
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: was unfortun But Green Bay and l I see, those
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: were I don't think I had to share with any
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: of them, so that all worked out. New England was
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: a very interesting discussion point because I thought that they
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: were a good play in doubles where there are doubles
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: like with an asterisk. And the reason why there's an
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: asterisk is there was this spot in week eleven that
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: I identified where they had some pretty decent future value like
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: they were, you know, in a tough week, they were
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: one of the top selections. So I felt as though
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: in double pick pools where it started in week eleven,
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: that he probably wanted to save New England. However, this
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: is like a really you know, interesting subtlety. There were
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: several pools and Splash that had doubles starting in week
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: twelve starting, not to mention the Ship and Nation pool.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: So I felt as though in those pools, I thought
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: New England was a very good, good play last week
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: as well.
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  Speaker 3: And that's on the ship in Nation contest, that is
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  Speaker 3: all I played. I played New England Houston.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: So that's again that's an that was an interesting subtlety
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: that we kind of worked on. Okay, as far as
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: results goes, you know, as I mentioned, most teams advanced
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: and as the only guys that got clipped were Green
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: Bay and Lac.
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: An interesting thing that did happen in one.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: Of the games that that Baltimore got they lost Lamar Jackson.
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: But it looks like it's only going to be for
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: two or three weeks.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: So Survivor Pool players sort of got lucky in that
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: if you've been saving Baltimore, you're probably still going to
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: have them, you know, in great spots went by the
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: time Lamar gets back.
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: But those are the things that can happen in the
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: in the NFL.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: Okay, the other thing that was interesting that happened was
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: that Denver slaughter Cincinnati, and Cincinnati looked terrible.
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: And and the reason why I mentioned that.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: Is it it affects the map a little bit.
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: And I talked about this in the Discord channel a
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: little bit.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: It makes Cincinnati just much less valuable in the future
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: just because it's you know, they just look really, really bad.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: So like a week like week eight, where we thought
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: about maybe Cincinnati being being playable against the against the Jets,
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I can't imagine them being seven and a
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  Speaker 2: half point favorites against.
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  Speaker 3: Anybody right now.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: So this drops and what that does, That has kind
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: of like cascading effects on the whole thing.
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: We'll get into them more tomorrow.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: But but now you know, if you were, if you
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: were you thinking of using a team now that you'd
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: rather save to week eight. Uh, it's even more effective
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: you save them for week eight because now these this
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: New England excuse me, this Cincinnati plays I believe no
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: longer viable.
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: So a couple of announcements also the.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: And then we'll get into the psychological discussion here is
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: uh I think the Week five is going to update
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: four pm again today, so I'm not gonna be able
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: to look at it numbers wise on the you know,
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: in this in this preview, but certainly.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: I'll be all over it tomorrow. So here here's what
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: I want to talk about.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: And I had a bunch of people that were in
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: the Discord and other discord channels I'm on two are
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: very upset with themselves because they took the chargers or
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: the packers and what they said. Now I want to
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: pull the pull the comments up here right now. But
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: was I wanted to take Houston. I knew it was
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: right to take Houston. But and then you hear one
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: of the following things. But either I just couldn't do it,
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: or I just wasn't doing that on H and three team,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: or I just.
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  Speaker 3: Felt more comfortable with.
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: The packers at the charge okay, And and and you
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: know what it's it's it's okay, you know, And I
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: say that because I've been there, you know, when when
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: you're first learning how these things operate, and you unfortunately
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: still like really like into football and into these teams
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: you could. You can't help but think that way. You
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: can't help but think that. You know, I'm just not
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: gonna put all my money on a team that's owned. Okay,
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: I just know the Chargers are better, and I know
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: the Packers are better. I don't care what the lines are.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: I don't care what the EV says. I know these
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: teams are better. And it's rather than yell at you
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: and say, oh God, don't feel that way again, we're
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: human beings, right, So it's more important that you just
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: kind of learn from that and realize that this, this
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: this contest has nothing.
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: To do with football, like nothing. There's nothing to do
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: with teams.
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  Speaker 2: It has nothing to do with good or bad or
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: chokers or you know, good quarterbacks, bad coaching, any of that.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: These are just you know, probabilities and data points. He
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: saved data points on a on a board. Okay, the
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: umpire is right there. It's like not even close. I
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: don't know what he's going anyway. How do you how
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: do you not see that?
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: Anyway?
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: So think about don't think about these things as teams.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: I almost would rather you just cross out the name
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: of the team. And just replace them with like letters,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna play A. You know what I mean, I'm
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: gonna play B. Let's look at a's map. Where are
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: they located? Now, with that said, okay, if you know football,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: you know what you're you're gonna be pretty good at
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: You'll be able to make these adjustments in the freaking
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: in the So we do know a little bit of
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: something about football, and we were able to do that,
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: and you might be able to think of stuff like,
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: you know, week at eighteen and you know what could
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: happen there and all this kind of stuff. But aside
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: from that, don't worry about it.
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: We just move on.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: And if that was your guys, last entry, you learn
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: from it and then you'll you'll you'll you won't do
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: it again.
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: And the other thing again, I'll talk about this a
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: little more tomorrow, but.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: It's it's it's.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: Tough, but you have to just continue to push your edges. Okay,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: you have all these opportunities, and I know each week
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: you're like, Okay, now I'm gonna take the sixteen point
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: favor and now I'm gonna take a fifteen point favorite.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: I know, she says, you're supposed to save those things.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: But you know what, you can't get there until you're
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: til you're alive. You can't get there if you're dead. Okay,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: but it's just not the way you got to think
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: about these things, Okay.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: You have to want once. It's almost like poker.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: You know, a lot of people could play aggressively, but
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: then what happens is is once they get to the bubble,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: they say, you know, I know I'm supposed to pay aggressively,
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: but I just can't do it.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: But but that's when you that's where all the EV is. Okay,
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: you have to put yourself in the position you're the
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: most v possible. And if that means pushing the edges
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: in weeks where EV doesn't mean anything, okay, I think
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: it's very very important to understand that. Okay, Okay, I
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: guess that's all I really had.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: Oh a couple of things.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: I wanted to show you a couple of just just
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: to show you a couple of my entries in the
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: bigger buying contests, to show you that there are contests
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: where you can play these chalk plays. So like this
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: is the five thousand that I'm in the splash x
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: fill high stakes one and this one. I mean, I
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: had no problem playing Baltimore in week two, right, I
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: didn't like them at all in doubles, but I thought
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: they were okay week two. But the rest were like good,
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: you know, low low eave even high future value teams
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: like Arizona week one, Seattle week three, Houston week four,
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: and then in the other big buy in one, the
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: Splash high Roller, I had no problem eating it with
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: Denver in week one, Buffalo.
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: In week four, you know what I mean.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: So it's every single pool is different, okay, but most
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: of the pools that we're kind of talking about now
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: are the cool, you know, pools where you need to
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: play doubles at some point, you know, so those are
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: really good training grounds to teach you how to how
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: to put these.
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: Maps together and how to think about things in the future.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: All right, let's let's pull this up. I know it's
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: not here now album. Let you know what we're gonna do.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: Let's take a look at that kind of that sort
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: of path to victory that is very very easy to
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: kind of see, you know, if you think about these
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: things well in advance. So let's just think about this.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: So week five, now, This is a big caveat if
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: you still have Arizona available. Okay, they're probably gonna be
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: a very good player. Okay, Baltimore is no longer nine
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: and a half, they've got a three and a half.
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: But well that'll update week six.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: And you could play Pittsburgh at mine six and a half.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: You want to say, Philly, you always play Denver and
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: then you'll see another one like down here at Green Bay.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: If they're minus three over Cincinnati, I will eat my hat.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: I think it's more give me more like minus thirteen.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Week seven, you could play the Chiefs, or you could
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: play Chicago. Week eight, you could.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: Go Sorry, Cincinnati, I don't think you can play them anymore.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: But you could certainly play the Eagles if you want,
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: or you could drop your Bills or Baltimore if you want.
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: Totally reasonable.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: But week eight, the real team that you're probably gonna
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: want to play is Indianapolis there minus a million over Tennessee.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: This minus three and a half doesn't exist minus nine
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: either of these two teams, they're both.
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: Going to be bigger favorites, being they or the Packers.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Week ten, the Bears over the Giants will probably be solid.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: You know, even Carolina, they could be solid over in
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: New Orleans.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: Week eleven. You can again drop either of these teams
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: on people at that point, or maybe the Patriots over
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: the Jets we talked about earlier. Week twelve.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: I mean again, Lamar will be bat you could play
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: this or Detroit if you save them, they're very strong.
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: Play here.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: San Francisco if they get their act together, they'll be
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: strong in week twelve. Week thirteen, now we can go
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: play the Chargers. They'll probably be a little bit better
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: than this over the Raiders. Week fourteen. Tampa Bay's minus
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: a million here week fifteen, or well, you can go
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: back to the Bears if you didn't use.
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: Them here, or San Francisco over there. Week sixteen. Now
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: you didn't use the Chiefs in seven, you could drop
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: them here.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: Maybe even if you didn't use the Bills yet, you
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: can use them here. Week seventeen, total war. But Washington,
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: who we haven't used yet or we wouldn't have by now,
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: is you know, the biggest favorite on the board. And
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: the week eighteen, I mean pretty much everybody's gonna be
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: playable because there will be teams that will be resting.
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: How about Atlanta minus six there.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: So the point is it's not difficult to create these
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: very normal paths to victory without using the top teams early.
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: So don't so don't be in such a hurry to
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: eat that you know safe play early in the season.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: I don't even do it with doubles. I could totally
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: do the same thing with doubles. I think I did
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: that last week. I do doubles every week and still
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: get to the to the end.
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: So I think that's pretty much all I wanted to
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: talk about today. Tomorrow, we're gonna go over.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Week five and there's a lot of stuff to talk about.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: You know, you're gonna have the Bills not as big
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: as a favorite. You're gonna have the Ravens, who won't
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: even exist. They'll be minus three. You'll have Detroit will
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: be more like minus ten. You'll have Arizona will.
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: Be almost minus ten. MI is eight and a half.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: And this is gonna be the first week where you
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: have a scarcity issue because you're.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: Gonna want to play Arizona, but maybe you don't have them.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: We'll talk about that.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: You'll have Indianapolis, there'll be a good play, but again,
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: maybe you want to save.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: Them for Week eight. More stuff to talk about, but
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: we'll be all over that.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: Watch if you're a member for the tool to update
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: hopefully by four o'clock today, and you'll see.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: Me tomorrow at four as well.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: Continue to pound in that discord channel and ask the
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: questions because it's really really important.
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: That is going to do it. Good luck.
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: Everybody has.
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: And still mother and still mad and sad, and.
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: Most and still.
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: Bust and mons, mother and most eggs, st light end
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: of them, the path of the l end of them,
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: the right tact, the right ten of them, pat youssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss