Latest / The P[w]rescription / [W]roundball w/ BJ Bethel [Polymarket, NBA Week 1, MLB World Series, NFL Week 7]

Transcript

[W]roundball w/ BJ Bethel [Polymarket, NBA Week 1, MLB World Series, NFL Week 7] · The P[w]rescription

• 0:05
  In the distant future, mankind has reached the
• 0:10
  stars, but the prescription rules the airwaves
• 0:13
  with an iron fist. Originality is the key to
• 0:19
  podcast dominance. The only hope for listeners
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  lies with elite yappers and their out of pocket
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  takes. These yappers will shake the foundations
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  of the scene and change the course of history.
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  They are desperate and will speak on it for a
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  price accepting missions to eliminate all obstacles
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  This is the prescription Lock in Yes, and stacks
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  more paper than you. Absolutely. Are you ready
• 1:30
  for roundball? What's up? What's up? What's up?
• 1:34
  This is Larry yacht aka sexy boy bow on aka the
• 1:41
  Filipino American dream if you will aka Your
• 1:46
  host here and I wanted to do this right off the
• 1:50
  bat off of my council Off of the off of the council
• 1:54
  of my wise man This is of course Roundball where
• 2:00
  we talk about sports in the best way possible
• 2:02
  and for the first time I'm gonna announce this
• 2:06
  we have a sponsor folks. We are presented to
• 2:10
  you here by Polymarket, that's right Polymarket.
• 2:16
  Everything is tradable. You go on there and you
• 2:21
  bet on futures. And whether that be in politics
• 2:23
  as we have the upcoming midterm elections coming
• 2:26
  up, whether it be on NFL, whether it be on the
• 2:30
  current MLB or WNBA finals or the MLB World Series,
• 2:37
  Polymarket is where you go to bet on the futures
• 2:39
  market. And they've graciously Content to us
• 2:44
  here at round ball at the prescription and for
• 2:48
  us to be partnered with them It's such an honor
• 2:50
  and it's such a big deal for me and I know you
• 2:53
  guys hear like the the ads running at the beginning
• 2:55
  of the show And I hope you guys are listening
• 2:58
  and you're clicking and you're doing all that
• 3:00
  Because for the first time I also get to say
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  this Go to chillboys .com This is some of the
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  best underwear you can get it's very airy. It's
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  % off on any purchase. Again, that's code word
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  doc, D -O -C. Man, that felt so hot to say that.
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  I'm going to say that a wrestling related podcast
• 3:34
  having a underwear sponsor is quite funny. And
• 3:40
  a sports podcast having a... A Polymarket sponsor
• 3:45
  is also quite fitting. And funnily enough, we're
• 3:49
  going to talk a little bit about politics, which
• 3:50
  gets into like, we can talk a little bit about
• 3:52
  betting markets and politics, which are available
• 3:54
  on Polymarket too. Yeah, there's so much you
• 3:57
  can bet on on Polymarket because everything is
• 4:00
  tradable. You basically go on this website on
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  Polymarket and there is a market that works.
• 4:06
  You purchase into the yes or no on some of these
• 4:08
  things and basically it's self -explainable.
• 4:13
  However much you purchased for the payout is
• 4:17
  whatever you put in. I absolutely think that
• 4:20
  it's not just going to be the future of sports
• 4:23
  betting. It's the future of any kind of betting
• 4:26
  because if you did what we did and we looked
• 4:28
  up the markets on the upcoming midterm elections,
• 4:32
  you would be surprised. But you know what? Polymarket
• 4:36
  is not only sponsoring Roundball. It's not only
• 4:39
  sponsoring the prescription. They're officially
• 4:42
  partnered with the National Basketball Association.
• 4:46
  And speaking of that, I'm going to do my intros
• 4:48
  because we have the starting lineup here at Roundball.
• 4:52
  Introducing first, coming out of the Pacific
• 4:55
  Northwest, we have Taylor, Tay Kasey. What's
• 5:01
  up, Tay? Guys, exciting to be here. We're like
• 5:06
  right in the thick of the sports calendar here.
• 5:09
  First week of NBA down. um world series going
• 5:13
  on nfl schedule right right about in the middle
• 5:15
  of the year it's one of the few days where we
• 5:19
  have nhl mlb mlb and nba and football all going
• 5:24
  out the same time yeah yeah and we had a w nba
• 5:27
  uh game five today too yeah i was surprised they
• 5:31
  found an arena for it uh you know you heard him
• 5:34
  speak coming in we have the uh The man, the numbers,
• 5:40
  the American numbers, Números de América, Arturo,
• 5:44
  desde Isla de Puerto Rico, wepa, wepa, wepa.
• 5:50
  Hello. By the way, I wanted to cut my own horn
• 5:54
  because we were like, I haven't said this, but
• 5:56
  we did hit on our big World Series bet with the
• 6:01
  first -time winner. Now, the series has been
• 6:03
  over, but the first -time winner included the
• 6:05
  race and the Brewers, so. Either way, you could
• 6:08
  basically did not need to hedge out. You're guaranteed
• 6:11
  to pay out on that. I believe that was $2 .25.
• 6:14
  Yeah. If you're going to go on Polymarket, one
• 6:17
  of the best places to go, of course, is paytordata
• 6:20
  .com. Paytordata .com. They use AI models to
• 6:26
  present, whether it's the MLB World Series. Thank
• 6:29
  you to James, former guest on here. James and
• 6:32
  Arturo put together such an incredible AI model.
• 6:35
  no matter what sport you follow. That's paytordata
• 6:38
  .com. That's a free one, Arturo. That's a free
• 6:40
  one for you. There you go. That's a free one.
• 6:43
  And of course, coming out here from Ohio, we
• 6:50
  have very Bethel, very nice BJ Bethel. What better
• 6:57
  gift to have than a BJ? Welcome, BJ. Thanks,
• 7:01
  I think. But yeah, as As we're talking here.
• 7:08
  Yeah, it's been it's so surprising to actually
• 7:11
  have like these sponsorship deals To say code
• 7:14
  word doc. Uh, we're on another level guy We're
• 7:17
  on a new level. We're on a new level. Um So,
• 7:23
  uh, I just want to say thank you to all my listeners.
• 7:25
  Thank you to our sponsors, of course And thank
• 7:29
  you to all of my partners here On the prescription
• 7:32
  here on round ball. Obviously our runaway hit
• 7:35
  of of the podcast channel that we have here.
• 7:39
  So yeah, welcome, guys. And of course, since
• 7:42
  we're starting off with the Polymarket News,
• 7:44
  Polymarket and Kelsey Beds have announced official
• 7:47
  partnerships with the National Basketball Association.
• 7:50
  How do you guys feel? I mean, I think there's
• 7:54
  a thing on that story that was kind of important,
• 7:56
  which is, and if you know the history of the
• 8:00
  NBA, the NBA has always, and basketball has always
• 8:03
  had issues. With betting on the on the games
• 8:06
  and kind of players kind of like in and gamblers
• 8:09
  getting into that and causing problems What was
• 8:13
  that referee we talked about? What was that referee?
• 8:16
  And like and his best friend Scott Foster who
• 8:19
  still call games But the point is that they essentially
• 8:23
  like one of the things that negotiated out was
• 8:24
  like having the ability to control which markets
• 8:26
  there's certain markets that are like very easy
• 8:29
  for a single player to manipulate catch down
• 8:32
  on that. The league does have some issues still
• 8:34
  in terms of they they're not very transparent
• 8:38
  sometimes when things happen in terms of how
• 8:39
  they police that but hopefully that's something
• 8:41
  they can kind of improve on that but like at
• 8:43
  least I do think that controlling which markets
• 8:46
  are posted is a good step right because that
• 8:48
  is kind of a dangerous game for the league to
• 8:52
  play and I was like you know I'm a basketball
• 8:53
  fan at heart and I don't want the league to get
• 8:55
  themselves in trouble. Hey, make sure that like
• 8:59
  you're yuppin a boy. Yep, because gambling scandals
• 9:01
  are not things that you like if you're But yeah
• 9:06
  So as I said, like I think this partnership is
• 9:10
  good And I think it's a partnership that if the
• 9:13
  NBA doesn't properly can keep things more above
• 9:16
  board It lets them have certain level of control
• 9:19
  that I think would be helpful. So it's good Yeah,
• 9:26
  it looks like right now. It's predominantly Spreads
• 9:30
  up the score. It looks like they have like some
• 9:32
  homemade player prop ones that you can bet but
• 9:36
  It looks like it's already starting to get controlled
• 9:38
  on on poly market. So it's it's moving in the
• 9:41
  right direction It's not the only partnership
• 9:42
  will not mention but like I do think that like
• 9:44
  inevitably I do think That I mean like there
• 9:48
  I mean, we're not gonna go back to the point
• 9:49
  We're like there we don't have it and I do think
• 9:51
  that like when we have it then you need to make
• 9:54
  sure that like you or I mean like Going back
• 9:57
  to a place where like it's all happening is an
• 10:00
  unregulated Because let's be fair even though
• 10:03
  people talk about like no gambling is legal now
• 10:06
  like there's like no gambling still exists like
• 10:08
  Like the bookies existed and people will place
• 10:11
  bets on that It's better that exists above board
• 10:13
  and is regulated and that's always gonna be my
• 10:16
  opinion, right? And I do think that like given
• 10:18
  that's case. I do think having that involvement
• 10:20
  is good Right. And we're getting like slightly
• 10:23
  bit off topic, but I do think it's kind of like,
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  it's the kind of thing where like, you know,
• 10:26
  if things are going to happen, you're better
• 10:28
  off having them like, you know, legislate and
• 10:31
  regulate. That's kind of like my take. Because,
• 10:38
  you know, what recently passed was the, the online
• 10:41
  sports books apps being, you know, available
• 10:44
  in all 50 states. I know, uh, Teddy talks about
• 10:47
  the availability of some of the sports books
• 10:49
  up in, you know, Washington. I think like, there's
• 10:53
  not really that many restrictions here in California.
• 10:56
  But it's really interesting, because this is
• 10:58
  the way forward. And again, I do want to thank
• 11:02
  Polymarket for the sponsorship of the prescription.
• 11:06
  I just want to say that. I do think that, again,
• 11:09
  as with everything, people will always figure
• 11:11
  out workarounds. People will always figure out
• 11:13
  a way to try to game systems. And I do think
• 11:16
  that that's something that you have to keep an
• 11:18
  eye out and make sure that it's like that movie
• 11:21
  where the guy gaming the lottery won. And there's
• 11:23
  always... you know it's people will always uh
• 11:29
  try to figure out like the edge and i mean again
• 11:31
  here's the years we're here we're trying to give
• 11:33
  you help pledges too right so i think that like
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  um to bring it back uh what do you guys thought
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  about like the season so far mba wise yes luca
• 11:46
  i mean the sixers look really darn good i mean
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  when i've seen them they they've been impressive
• 11:54
  i'd I think that, uh, you know, you put embed,
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  you put LeBron together. I think they've been
• 12:01
  pretty well, you know, pretty, I think are for
• 12:04
  something pretty to stop. I mean, I was one of
• 12:05
  the best first day, couple of days of the season
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  I've ever seen. I think it was a really strong
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  start that they actually needed because, you
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  know, the reputation of leagues had before playoffs
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  isn't exactly great. And I don't think that was
• 12:18
  entirely fair, but Um, it was, I think, I think
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  this, I think it's been a great start to the
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  year. I think the heat are probably the biggest
• 12:25
  story in some ways. Cause you know, they just
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  are, they look absolutely terrible. I think that
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  the thing with the fixers, I don't think we have
• 12:35
  enough data with them yet. They look good, but
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  I mean like to think the argument was like their
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  number was 51. Um, right now, like my, my, like
• 12:43
  the data just says like they're slightly, slightly
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  below that. The issue with that team is always
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  going to be. the wear and tear of the season
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  because I do think that the problem with it with
• 12:51
  them is like sisters are deep right and so like
• 12:54
  if anything happens to anybody then you start
• 12:56
  getting into like like like less ideal players
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  in less ideal situations and that's what we'll
• 13:01
  see like we'll see how that goes with the wear
• 13:03
  and tear of the season uh I think the thing with
• 13:06
  Miami is and we were kind of talking about it
• 13:09
  before is it's just it's just a very odd fit
• 13:12
  because building it like you I think building
• 13:15
  a team against a Giannis and Bam are not complimentary
• 13:18
  players, right? No. Particularly not in the style
• 13:21
  because they want to like, do he want to play
• 13:23
  this like this, I forget the name of the coach,
• 13:26
  but they want to play this particular style offense.
• 13:28
  And they don't have the shooting and they don't
• 13:30
  have the fit for that. Because when you have
• 13:32
  somebody like Giannis, if you think about Giannis
• 13:33
  and his career, he has somebody like Brook Lopez
• 13:35
  or somebody, he's had a complimentary big or
• 13:37
  complimentary bigs that can basically step out
• 13:40
  in the parameters and help them defensively.
• 13:41
  Right, like so they can run the defense around
• 13:44
  him But they also have guys who can step out
• 13:45
  take shots and move around and this isn't the
• 13:48
  office they currently have right? Um, I think
• 13:51
  I think if you're picking If you have like a
• 13:54
  lineup of nba players and you're picking like
• 13:56
  who do you want to be the second guy next to
• 13:58
  Yannis? I think I think bam's probably Close
• 14:02
  to if not like the last pick because I just think
• 14:04
  um, I mean like it's overlapping and not complimentary
• 14:09
  You would rather have pilot hero than like bam,
• 14:12
  like bam, right? Absolutely. Yeah. I mean like
• 14:15
  you you'd rather like i'm trying to think like
• 14:17
  you'd rather have john moran than like like uh,
• 14:21
  like then you need like you need somebody like
• 14:24
  trick is you need somebody to like So giannis
• 14:27
  has a lot of gravity But like if they're it's
• 14:30
  it's kind of like if you don't have the outlet
• 14:31
  guys It's like don't have the outlet guys fast
• 14:33
  too and you don't guys have guys have to play
• 14:36
  off then it just becomes kind of the thing where
• 14:38
  like You're letting the defense the other teams
• 14:40
  basically defend you easier because you don't
• 14:43
  know personal to basically move around So it
• 14:45
  becomes like a robot and again, like also the
• 14:47
  problem with that is like they don't really have
• 14:48
  like who's their third best player? That's a
• 14:52
  that's a big problem. It's kind of Andrew Wiggins
• 14:54
  by default. Oh good lord Yeah, like Andrew Wiggins
• 14:57
  is a guy who's great if he's like your sixth
• 15:02
  best guy, right? But third best guy for Andrew
• 15:06
  Wiggins is like no That ain't going to work.
• 15:10
  And I think, I think they knew shooting was going
• 15:13
  to be a big issue. And that's what they addressed
• 15:16
  as much as they could in free agency. But the
• 15:18
  problem when you're addressing shooting in free
• 15:20
  agency with minimum guys or Tim Hardaway, I think
• 15:23
  was like 5 million is, is there one side of the
• 15:27
  field players, you know, like Clay Clay at this
• 15:30
  point and Tim Hardaway both on a good day, their
• 15:34
  pluses on, on offense, but they're such big negatives
• 15:37
  on defense that you can only have them on the
• 15:39
  court for so long, even if they're making buckets.
• 15:42
  Yeah, they're not 40 minute guys. And that's
• 15:45
  where in the playoffs, you need 40 minute guys,
• 15:49
  especially as you get deeper into your bench
• 15:51
  because you're going to have injuries. You're
• 15:53
  going to have five, six, you got seven game series
• 15:55
  back to back to back. You got, I mean, you got
• 15:58
  the wear and tear and I mean, just the nature
• 16:01
  of the NBA playoffs. You've got to have that.
• 16:05
  You got to have the you got to be gritty and
• 16:07
  I mean, we'll see what they do with it You know,
• 16:12
  I you know, I you know, we'll see what happens
• 16:14
  I mean others with teams is Ford. It's they've
• 16:16
  had they brought in like a whole Change of things
• 16:19
  they bring in you honest and they're still figuring
• 16:21
  it out But I agree with Arturo and as I think
• 16:23
  that you know We'll see how it happens with them
• 16:25
  and if they got together by the playoffs we'll
• 16:28
  find out or not But you know, they're gonna have
• 16:29
  to make some, you know, they have to get some
• 16:31
  more out of some guys than they expected and
• 16:34
  They're also going to have to, uh, maybe, you
• 16:36
  know, get some, you know, they got to find some
• 16:39
  depth. Yeah. I mean, it's the thing where like,
• 16:41
  there's a couple of things that are like, they
• 16:42
  just need to make a move and like Miami is kind
• 16:45
  of in that spot because they really, they have,
• 16:48
  it was kind of funny because like once like,
• 16:50
  to be honest, it was kind of like out of the
• 16:51
  game last, uh, the last game we found out, like
• 16:54
  they were able, like Bo was able to like pull
• 16:56
  something together because he was essentially
• 16:58
  like doing the, he's really good at like making
• 17:00
  something out of nothing sometimes, but really
• 17:02
  they, They have very specific personnel needs
• 17:05
  on this team that they need to address. So they
• 17:07
  really want to get good. So by the way, so what
• 17:10
  we try is like, I'm going to give you like free
• 17:12
  tip for everyone. There's a site, great site
• 17:14
  called Team Rankings. It has a against the spread
• 17:18
  page. And what the against the spread page shows
• 17:21
  you, if you go to the APS, it shows you the team's
• 17:25
  record against the spread and like, One of the
• 17:28
  things that the NBA is very particular about,
• 17:31
  and you'll find out, is a lot of people don't
• 17:32
  really start watching the NBA until Christmas,
• 17:34
  right? So, praises and impressions of certain
• 17:38
  teams, right? If the public thinks a team is
• 17:41
  good or a team is bad, as said by the over -underline,
• 17:44
  that impression generally tends to last a lot
• 17:47
  longer in the NBA than it does in other sports.
• 17:50
  like every year there's always a team that is
• 17:53
  there are teams that are significantly better
• 17:55
  than the impression of the public and teams that
• 17:57
  are worse than the impression of the public to
• 17:59
  give an example last year charlotte san antonio
• 18:02
  and boston were all 57 percent or better against
• 18:06
  the spread right so they they're like uh that
• 18:09
  and then like cleveland was 40 against the spread
• 18:13
  washington was 40 against the spread so generally
• 18:15
  what that means and you have certain years where
• 18:17
  like it's even much better but like one of the
• 18:19
  things you can do is you can start looking from
• 18:21
  early in the season and see which teams are outperforming
• 18:24
  the spread or like what the public perceives
• 18:27
  because the spreads like if people don't know
• 18:29
  and i don't think i've explained it here the
• 18:30
  way that the way the vegas works right um vegas
• 18:33
  doesn't set the line on a game by what they think
• 18:37
  the outcome is going to be right that is a misconception
• 18:41
  they're not telling you that the celtics are
• 18:43
  favored by 14 and a half points because they
• 18:45
  think celtics are going by 14 and a half they're
• 18:48
  telling you that they're giving the Celtics 14
• 18:50
  .5 points, right? So it's minus 14 .5. So basically,
• 18:54
  Celtics were playing Chicago, and Chicago was
• 18:57
  getting 14 .5 points. They're setting the line
• 19:00
  so that they can draw 50 % of the money on both
• 19:03
  sides, because the way, when you're a book, the
• 19:06
  way you want to do it is you want to set the
• 19:08
  line so that half the money comes in on both
• 19:10
  sides, because you make the money on what's called
• 19:11
  the big, basically the extra margin they put
• 19:15
  on your transaction. And ideally, I mean, Obviously
• 19:18
  books manipulate this but ideally in the ideal
• 19:21
  world even money comes in on both sides So the
• 19:23
  house is never paying out out of their own pocket,
• 19:26
  right? And effectively what they're doing is
• 19:29
  they're setting the line to draw a certain amount
• 19:31
  of money on each side So if you know that Then
• 19:35
  what this means if there's a team that is a very
• 19:37
  public team, right? So the public loves the team
• 19:40
  more than Vegas, right? So Vegas knows that they
• 19:43
  can basically like if the public loves this team
• 19:45
  they can set the line too high Lakers or the
• 19:48
  Knicks or like if the public hates the team they
• 19:50
  can set the line too low and the other is like
• 19:53
  the team that like like Toronto's a team that
• 19:56
  generally like the public hates um historically
• 19:59
  so what this means is if you look at against
• 20:00
  the spread early on the season who are the teams
• 20:03
  that are beating the crap out of the spread like
• 20:05
  we're perfect against the spread it's going to
• 20:07
  be Detroit Clippers Minnesota Memphis and Houston
• 20:10
  Which if you listen to our preseason preview
• 20:13
  that we did our three parts and pieces Peter
• 20:15
  And take that we like although I think we liked
• 20:17
  all those I mean, I think we liked all those
• 20:19
  teams I think Clippers we I think the club was
• 20:21
  we said like I mean, I like the coach, right?
• 20:23
  I think the thing with the Clippers they have
• 20:25
  a really good coach, right? but I have to try
• 20:27
  we said was not as was not it was not nearly
• 20:30
  as bad because the public had him 48 I was like
• 20:32
  These guys finished like they were one seed last
• 20:34
  year. But effectively what this means is the
• 20:36
  public still doesn't think Detroit is a real
• 20:38
  team, but Detroit is a real team. And I stand
• 20:40
  by my statement. Oh, they just beat Philly. One
• 20:42
  of Detroit looks like a team that's going to
• 20:44
  make the conference finals. And that's historically,
• 20:47
  this is when you set a stone. So when you see
• 20:49
  a team like this, they have the first year, they
• 20:51
  make the playoffs. They're somewhat disappointed
• 20:53
  in the second year, they make the conference
• 20:55
  finals. the next year they stick around they
• 20:57
  make the finals that's typically the progression
• 20:59
  that you see right and detroit kind of feels
• 21:02
  like that they're a team that's very physical
• 21:04
  they beat the crap out of you they have a lot
• 21:05
  of good players and they really play good basketball
• 21:08
  this is why like they're like they're like 12
• 21:10
  points better than the spread so far and undefeated
• 21:13
  against the spread like detroit team like that
• 21:15
  i think the clippers the issue with the clippers
• 21:16
  is the clippers have a really good coach right
• 21:19
  so they they're world coached squad so i think
• 21:22
  that like that right they always over over perform
• 21:25
  their talent. I'm not saying they're going to
• 21:26
  be good. I'm saying they're going to always kind
• 21:28
  of over profiled. There's always going to perform
• 21:31
  better than like what's expectation or that's
• 21:33
  reasonable. I think Minnesota was another team
• 21:36
  that was like, well, they had a lot of like,
• 21:38
  like people like, I think that team is better
• 21:40
  than perception. And we also gave kudos to their,
• 21:43
  we said their GM is great. We think we said their
• 21:45
  GM is awesome. I think the moves that they're
• 21:47
  going to make in season are going to be good
• 21:48
  and they have been good. So yeah, we like that
• 21:50
  team more than the public is like. I think this
• 21:53
  is like so if you're looking typically keep this
• 21:55
  team's eye out, Minnesota I said sorry Memphis
• 21:58
  I said was gonna be the team that I was gonna
• 21:59
  watch them today I was watching the Memphis game
• 22:02
  Memphis you talking before this Memphis is great
• 22:04
  Like like Boozer looks like a real player Edie's
• 22:08
  great God, what's the name of the point guard?
• 22:11
  I Jerome that that was great Ty Jerome's been
• 22:13
  having a killer drums having like the most improved
• 22:17
  season so far this evening like coming into today
• 22:20
  was the Leading score in the NBA. Yeah. I mean,
• 22:23
  I think what happens is that team has a lot of
• 22:25
  like a really good pieces around them So that
• 22:27
  girl basically like hasn't has like I had like
• 22:30
  an exception to rep the riches and I think nobody's
• 22:32
  gonna catch up this team is It feels a little
• 22:34
  bit like that Cleveland team a few years back
• 22:36
  that like one like 48 gig That's what this Memphis
• 22:39
  scene feels like because when you watch them
• 22:41
  their defense is really fucking good What coach
• 22:43
  a lot of good players like 80 and booster great
• 22:46
  tied Jerome's great? They had Howard said her
• 22:49
  cowards great too. Yeah, they they had to wave
• 22:51
  Walter Clayton because they didn't have room
• 22:53
  for him on the roster He scored 15 points today
• 22:55
  for Dallas Like this is this Memphis team is
• 23:00
  my my very much I'm watching Memphis might be
• 23:02
  a team that basically you take the points every
• 23:04
  single night every night I'm like always because
• 23:11
  I pulled up I pulled up team rankings as you
• 23:13
  were talking so Detroit's third right now against
• 23:16
  uh uh plus minus uh against the spread like he
• 23:20
  said plus 12 and then the third fourth worst
• 23:22
  team is the nicks and the nicks in detroit play
• 23:25
  tomorrow well i mean i was looking i was looking
• 23:27
  positive and still on the positives like houston's
• 23:29
  the other one we really like houston we said
• 23:31
  yep yeah they're also we literally i literally
• 23:34
  i consider houston one of the title contenders
• 23:37
  that team i mean it's got fred bambli they've
• 23:39
  got kevin durant i like all their young guys
• 23:42
  they added market smart who i've always loved
• 23:44
  market smart was a fucking gamer That team, that
• 23:46
  team is a serious team. And honestly, I think
• 23:49
  right now with the injury Stoke AC, I think Houston,
• 23:52
  I need to look, but I think uses, I would, what
• 23:54
  is, what are the odds on Houston? Ooh, ooh, ooh.
• 23:57
  Let me give a bet. What are the odds on Houston?
• 23:59
  That would be my number one seed. Hold on, hold
• 24:01
  on. I'm going on, I'm going on, on, on another
• 24:04
  website. If you need anything, let me know. Sponsor,
• 24:08
  sponsor me if you want me to mention you. I'm
• 24:14
  looking at winning the conference. So winning
• 24:16
  the conference or like no, I want the number
• 24:19
  one seed odds what I'm looking for Trying to
• 24:24
  figure that out on I'm like future fourth on
• 24:26
  poly market right now But I'm trying to figure
• 24:28
  out what the actual number NBA Western conference
• 24:31
  number when I got Easter conference Celtics plus
• 24:34
  300 but no no, I'm looking at like I think it's
• 24:37
  down because they might be down because of the
• 24:40
  of the OKC injuries That's another subject we
• 24:45
  need to get into Good Lord man, that's one of
• 24:52
  the worst I've ever seen on a basketball that
• 24:54
  was very sed vicious like if you guys know what
• 24:56
  I'm talking about Western conference odds for
• 25:02
  the winning the one seed is the Rockets are plus
• 25:04
  600 I really like that, like getting the Rockets
• 25:09
  right now at plus 600, that's really fucking
• 25:12
  nice. Now here's the thing, here's the way you
• 25:14
  play this on the season. Like what you're looking
• 25:17
  for is you're looking to get the Rockets at plus
• 25:18
  600 and you're looking to see if you can get
• 25:20
  San Antonio at some point. Plus 400 because antonio
• 25:24
  will go one it's like the goal of the rodeo road
• 25:25
  trip or something and like they'll go on this
• 25:27
  massive road trip and like the number will drop
• 25:29
  and you'll be sitting with both those numbers
• 25:31
  and I kind of really do think san antonio and
• 25:34
  houston are kind of like the uh the the seeds
• 25:37
  on this right but like houston houston I think
• 25:40
  at plus 600 is significantly underpriced if like
• 25:43
  okay so he's gonna be without like uh like a
• 25:46
  couple of their key guys right um Yeah, I think
• 25:49
  with the OKC injuries, I think Houston's probably
• 25:53
  the deepest team, at least top end talent -wise
• 25:56
  in the West. So when you're getting plus 600,
• 25:58
  I think that's an easy bet to make. OK, so let's
• 26:01
  see. Other teams on this list in terms of ATS
• 26:04
  that are good, I think Atlanta is a little bit
• 26:07
  better than the record. I don't know if I trust
• 26:09
  that yet. Dallas and the Lakers. But I mean,
• 26:12
  again, I don't think again, that's the I'm looking
• 26:14
  at the ones that are like, for example, I think
• 26:15
  the ones that are like struggling, we talked
• 26:17
  about Miami, I think the thing with Miami is,
• 26:20
  is I think Riley needs to make a trade, right?
• 26:22
  Because that roster doesn't make a lot of sense.
• 26:24
  No, it does not. I think Phoenix is I mean, it's
• 26:30
  just Phoenix. I mean, I think it's just bad.
• 26:32
  Yeah, I think I think Phoenix is kind of to their
• 26:34
  team that they have. And it's just not good enough.
• 26:36
  I think Chicago is also another one where like,
• 26:38
  I think like, I don't know, like why, like, I
• 26:40
  mean, they're really kind of like getting killed
• 26:42
  right now, but like Chicago still doesn't have
• 26:43
  anybody, do they? It's like, they don't have
• 26:45
  anyone. Yeah. I think their solution was norm
• 26:48
  pal this year. Yeah. It's like, it's, it's really
• 26:52
  not, not good. Um, I think, yeah, Chicago's the
• 26:56
  team's rankings are just, you look across the
• 26:58
  board or 20 field goal percentage, 23rd and points
• 27:01
  fifth and free throw percent. They are shooting
• 27:03
  84 % from the. from the free throw, but they
• 27:06
  make up for that by shooting 22 % from three.
• 27:10
  24th and three points, Shane Spade and I didn't
• 27:12
  read. They're just, they're hurting, you know,
• 27:15
  pal. He's only 30 shooting 34 % from the field
• 27:19
  at this point. But, you know, they definitely
• 27:24
  are hurting Milwaukee. Obviously they're hurting
• 27:26
  because you know, For obvious reasons like I
• 27:30
  like I love the I think I'll mention it again
• 27:32
  It was the the Bucks credit post which was the
• 27:35
  non D honest minutes are gonna be tough this
• 27:36
  year I mean I wish that for them because you
• 27:41
  know being a I mean if you're a Midwestern sports
• 27:44
  fan you're used to your pro players being sucked
• 27:46
  out the larger markets, but it's just Yeah, just
• 27:50
  that's a hard one to make up. I'd say what Larry
• 27:54
  though. I think you're I mean, the Lakers have
• 27:57
  looked pretty good. I mean, man, like Luca put
• 28:00
  out a letter like in the newspaper, right? Put
• 28:03
  out a letter like on for the front page. And
• 28:06
  Arturo is going to like this. This is the most
• 28:08
  Lucha thing that he's ever done. And he's doing
• 28:11
  it in the right city in L .A. We are a Lucha
• 28:13
  city declaring that he's going to bring us a
• 28:15
  championship. And like he had so there was so
• 28:18
  many haters, so many like, you know, LeBron ball
• 28:22
  swingers that were saying like. a Lakers are
• 28:25
  gonna Lucas not gonna be anything with that the
• 28:27
  Lakers aren't gonna be anything but like you
• 28:29
  look at the numbers at Kessler Luca Austin are
• 28:33
  all putting up and you know, I Zaire that we're
• 28:36
  talking about this on like the preview about
• 28:38
  so you're really stepping up in the defensive
• 28:40
  place and I Over these last three games, you
• 28:44
  know with three and all right now. I say we yeah,
• 28:47
  I'm that kind of fan So I'm excited they score
• 28:50
  points. Yeah, they do score points like nobody's
• 28:53
  business. I'll give them that Defensively, I
• 28:56
  think they're gonna I think my long -term worry
• 29:01
  with the Lakers and I said this on the preview
• 29:03
  is that like I thought that the Lakers the Lakers
• 29:07
  G League team and their organization was extremely
• 29:09
  good as good as any team in the league and Finding
• 29:12
  guys and getting guys who could play NBA defense.
• 29:15
  They were really good at training guys To be
• 29:18
  like that was very similar to the Dodger system
• 29:22
  of how the Dodgers would But the best teams are
• 29:26
  like getting guys like I think the Lakers the
• 29:29
  Celtics Spurs I think the Warriors like dealing
• 29:33
  him for a while is like really good But like
• 29:34
  the Lakers in particular were really good to
• 29:36
  find these guys I think that's a key that's gonna
• 29:38
  be kind of lost because I do think would change
• 29:40
  the organization I'm not sure that that's necessarily
• 29:43
  gonna like transfer. That would be my worry with
• 29:46
  them as a transition. I think having Luke is
• 29:48
  great because Luke is always going to keep you
• 29:49
  competitive and Luke is going to kind of keep
• 29:51
  you there. But I do think, again, they need more
• 29:54
  parts on that, right? And that's kind of like,
• 29:57
  I kind of feel like the goal, like the ceiling
• 30:01
  on this team this season is like four seed, right?
• 30:05
  That's like window vision, the four seed. And
• 30:08
  I actually like really do think that like, I
• 30:10
  do think Portland's going to be like a serious,
• 30:12
  I do think Portland's going to hang around and
• 30:14
  like, and like make it, make them kind of, kind
• 30:16
  of struggle a little bit for it, right? Um, absolutely.
• 30:20
  Yeah. Portland in, Portland in Memphis, I would
• 30:22
  say are the biggest, again, Memphis, my take
• 30:25
  on that team is like, as I think I said, if like,
• 30:28
  if Zach Eady plays 60 games, right? uh and then
• 30:32
  yeah i mean i think this team is going to be
• 30:33
  like four they're going to be like 45 games because
• 30:36
  like you look at it the defense when he's out
• 30:38
  there and cowards out there and they got like
• 30:40
  it look just looks like they look like a basketball
• 30:42
  team right and like and and and early returns
• 30:46
  like you know i mean i think i think again they
• 30:48
  remind me of that cleveland team or like when
• 30:50
  they were the first year they were good they
• 30:52
  got mobile league where like just you could immediately
• 30:54
  tell by watching them play defense like oh teams
• 30:57
  just not prepared for this team it's like i think
• 30:59
  i watch i watch one team of the one game of preseason
• 31:01
  i forget what they're playing well they're playing
• 31:03
  chicago and chicago just stopped trying to get
• 31:07
  the ball into the paint they're playing memphis
• 31:09
  and like when edy was out there they just ran
• 31:11
  they ran they literally ran no plays at any time
• 31:14
  when edy was in there where they were going towards
• 31:16
  the paint everything was just like on the perimeter
• 31:18
  outside just like jacking up shots and i was
• 31:20
  like oh yeah i'm like if we're at the point where
• 31:23
  like if he's out there with like the rest like
• 31:25
  the solid that's just the eight -year defense
• 31:27
  is out there And people are not trying to score
• 31:29
  on the post on them. This team is going to win.
• 31:30
  Like they're going to go over 500 pretty easy.
• 31:33
  Like you better help. So we're so okay. The Oklahoma
• 31:37
  cities, they lose Williams. Uh, they had another
• 31:40
  terrible injury. Uh, there looks like, yeah,
• 31:44
  Wallace and okay. They're four and oh, but I
• 31:47
  mean, the, the, you see him, I mean, they're
• 31:51
  probably going to, they're going to pay for this.
• 31:53
  You know, I mean, I'll mean a bad way. It's just,
• 31:54
  you get injuries like this. this early in that
• 31:57
  traumatic group is not usually good. I don't
• 32:00
  know how serious that one is. Oh, really? They're
• 32:04
  quickly running out of wing players. I think
• 32:06
  the thing with them is the thing with Oklahoma
• 32:09
  is Oklahoma has the SGM and they have and they
• 32:13
  have depth and they have assets. But losing those
• 32:17
  guys means that they're probably going to have
• 32:20
  to cash in to get some guys. But they have the
• 32:22
  thing. They have the assets like they have like
• 32:25
  Presti has the tank to there's a couple teams
• 32:28
  that can go out like make moves fairly easily
• 32:31
  at Oklahoma the Celtics the couple things like
• 32:33
  we can have assets and like have guys where they
• 32:36
  like if something happens Like they can kind
• 32:38
  of make do it's kind of like there It's gonna
• 32:40
  be much harder for them to win like 65 games,
• 32:43
  right? Yeah And again, I do think the top I like
• 32:46
  there's a couple things I do think the top of
• 32:47
  that conference is strong. I do also think that
• 32:50
  again like we're in that we're The changes in
• 32:53
  the draft rules means that teams aren't going
• 32:54
  to tank, right? We're kind of already... I mean,
• 32:56
  there's some really bad teams, but teams aren't
• 32:58
  going to check out of these games as much early
• 33:01
  in the season. So I do think that puts pressure
• 33:03
  on them. But I think the trick is... the way
• 33:07
  it shakes out there still have the top level
• 33:08
  talent they still have so they have to chat in
• 33:10
  SGA and they got a couple of the guys but i do
• 33:13
  think they probably may need to cash in one because
• 33:16
  they lost two of the key pieces they're going
• 33:17
  to need to cash something in to get somebody
• 33:19
  here's the thing i do think they're going to
• 33:21
  be teams that are going to be selling we're already
• 33:23
  kind of seeing oh yeah like we're seeing teams
• 33:25
  that like hey you know we talked about Milwaukee
• 33:28
  hey maybe you can go out and get like bam you
• 33:30
  might be able to go and get bam and bam might
• 33:32
  not work Unlike on Miami, but he'll work on another
• 33:36
  team, right? Like if you can get him on this
• 33:38
  count, you'll work on the team. Wouldn't that
• 33:40
  be ironic? The thing about this is it's like
• 33:45
  something in It's sometimes I was like and it's
• 33:49
  weird because I'm My original background in basketball
• 33:51
  was coming in as like the one metric one of the
• 33:53
  one metric guys, right? and like as I've kind
• 33:56
  of got more around it like yes one metrics are
• 33:59
  good for summarizing things, but Fit is really
• 34:02
  important, right? So I mean you like if you if
• 34:07
  you just put like if you assume nominal bills
• 34:10
  and you have nominal talent like and you have
• 34:12
  people who do the different things then you're
• 34:15
  fine, but I do think that like when you start
• 34:17
  like putting some pressure on like for Oklahoma
• 34:20
  like when they lost some of these players and
• 34:21
  it cost them the San Antonio series because they
• 34:23
  just didn't have the death spread around and
• 34:25
  like you crash on them in certain situations
• 34:28
  and like size teams could beat them because Chet
• 34:31
  wasn't as strong as he should be like against
• 34:34
  certain sides like it would be of trouble against
• 34:35
  playing against like Detroit or something um
• 34:38
  and I do think that like yeah I mean like they
• 34:39
  probably do need to make a move they have the
• 34:41
  assets to do that right so you kind of need to
• 34:43
  like see which team is but They have the assets,
• 34:47
  but what's tricky about the Oklahoma City situation
• 34:50
  is next season they're scheduled to be $40 million
• 34:52
  over the second apron. So they can't really take
• 34:56
  on long -term money. I mean, again, they would
• 34:59
  have the assets to dump it later on, but... But
• 35:02
  what if, like, Phoenix goes into, like, panic
• 35:05
  sell mode? Yeah, but the thing is, like, you
• 35:12
  almost have to trade a core piece for Oklahoma.
• 35:14
  Like, you almost have to trade J -Dub. And turn
• 35:18
  that into like an expiry salary to fix. I mean,
• 35:20
  it'd be tough. That would be tough doing right
• 35:23
  now. The thing with Oklahoma and the thing with
• 35:25
  like teams like Boston is I do think they are
• 35:28
  playing with the. So one of the things we talked
• 35:30
  about or I've talked about, I don't know if we've
• 35:32
  talked about it here, but like the new the new
• 35:34
  cap rules means that the NBA essentially has
• 35:36
  a hard cap. And what that means is you need to
• 35:39
  like when you need to basically flip assets.
• 35:43
  and to stay and fail underneath, right? So this
• 35:46
  is why the Celtics essentially, like, clinged
• 35:47
  out, like, a bunch of contracts that they had.
• 35:49
  I mean, like, if the Celtics had their druthers,
• 35:51
  and we hadn't changed the rules, they probably
• 35:52
  would still have duality on them. The Celtics
• 35:55
  got out of the tax last year, and traded Jalen
• 35:59
  Brown to stay out of the tax again this year.
• 36:01
  Well, I mean, the Jalen thing is a little bit
• 36:03
  more complicated, because apparently it is coming
• 36:04
  out that he wanted to trade, and he tried to
• 36:06
  force a trade. Right not not the sole reason
• 36:08
  obviously, but yeah, they're They were not married
• 36:13
  to the idea and then we can I think we talked
• 36:16
  about this before But I mean I think it comes
• 36:18
  down to like so if you're okay seeing you do
• 36:19
  this move Whatever move you need to do to like
• 36:21
  get something you want to get talent that fits
• 36:24
  I mean, they're gonna try to get down that fits
• 36:26
  under the cap kind of situation that they have
• 36:29
  right? So they don't they're not gonna try to
• 36:30
  get themselves into the penalty, right? so whatever
• 36:33
  you do would be something more like going out
• 36:36
  and getting like complimentary piece possibly,
• 36:38
  right? Right. Kind of like how they got McCain
• 36:40
  last year. Right. And they're not going to get,
• 36:43
  they're not going to get bad piece. So like it
• 36:44
  just puts them in a situation. It does put them
• 36:47
  in a lot. It does make everything a lot more
• 36:51
  fragile and it does possibly put them in a situation
• 36:54
  where they got to put more wear and tear on like
• 36:56
  SGA if they care, right? Like, are they going
• 36:58
  to, are they going to want to get the one seat
• 37:00
  here or do they not care about the one seat,
• 37:02
  right? we know san antonio kind of doesn't like
• 37:05
  san antonio as a philosophy as a team doesn't
• 37:07
  because antonio just wants to get their team
• 37:08
  rested in properly way else yeah and they already
• 37:11
  showed they can go on the road to like get to
• 37:12
  the finals so it becomes kind of like an interesting
• 37:16
  situation to see what the hell we're going to
• 37:18
  do right um but yeah like i do think is do we
• 37:23
  who do we think who are your candidates right
• 37:25
  now for selling teams that you think are going
• 37:27
  to sell oh jeez i mean there's four games in
• 37:33
  five games in uh I tell you what, I mean, what
• 37:36
  happens if Miami's, let's say this gets to Christmas
• 37:38
  and they haven't figured this out. They, you
• 37:41
  know, they're still struggling with, with, with,
• 37:44
  you know, figuring out this lineup. They still
• 37:46
  struggling with how they're going to, you know,
• 37:48
  who's coming off the bench and who can play both
• 37:51
  sides of the floor. That's the big one for me,
• 37:53
  just because they've invested so much into this
• 37:55
  year. You know, they got one of the best players
• 37:57
  in the league. You know, they You know, they
• 38:00
  were set up to get LeBron. I mean, people forget
• 38:02
  that they almost got LeBron back. To me, that's
• 38:06
  the biggest one. I think also, God, as far as
• 38:10
  sellers go, I think there's gonna be some teams
• 38:12
  in the rest of surprising because I think the
• 38:14
  West is just so strong that you're going to see
• 38:15
  some teams get like bowing out early. They're
• 38:18
  going to be looking at things and saying, you
• 38:20
  know what, these guys, you know, because it's
• 38:23
  not just the West is strong. It's each team is
• 38:25
  strong in different ways. You have the Lakers.
• 38:27
  They were just, they look like showtime again.
• 38:29
  I think, you know, they're scoring 130 a game.
• 38:31
  You got, you know, like you said, Memphis where
• 38:33
  people don't, you know, you know, they're just
• 38:35
  so strong at the front court. I think every team
• 38:40
  is stronger in different ways. It's really, really
• 38:42
  hard to play against. What do you want to talk
• 38:44
  about? That might be bad as Denver, Denver back.
• 38:48
  That's a great question. I mean, I think I think
• 38:51
  they might be I kind of I and the impact and
• 39:15
  like if you look at the stats like no that roster
• 39:18
  has gotten progressively worse right and it's
• 39:20
  really kind of very dependent on like Aaron Gordon
• 39:23
  and I love Aaron Gordon Aaron Gordon's been really
• 39:25
  good for them but Aaron Gordon's a player that
• 39:26
  like Aaron Gordon has a shelf limit and I honestly
• 39:30
  he's at a point where he's healthy right now
• 39:32
  and it's still not looking very good right but
• 39:34
  Aaron Gordon is also a player that like if you
• 39:36
  the druthers I would rather have Aaron Gordon
• 39:39
  On a team like I would rather have Aaron Gordon
• 39:41
  on a team like where Paul George is we're like
• 39:43
  I don't think the Celtics are going to be fine
• 39:45
  with wrestling Paul George And like the the nuggets
• 39:48
  cannot afford to not have Aaron Gordon out there
• 39:51
  and and he's very much a guy who takes a lot
• 39:53
  of bumps on that and I And I honestly think that
• 39:57
  like when this Jamal Mary's contract off He's
• 40:00
  got quite a few years left. I think but is he
• 40:03
  now because it's right now Cam Johnson's hurt
• 40:06
  and they can't survive that injury and that's
• 40:08
  you know, their fifth starter And honestly the
• 40:12
  thing people have to understand that like if
• 40:14
  you have Joe kick You should be able to win like
• 40:16
  if you have joke it can you play in Denver? You
• 40:18
  should be able to win 45 games every year, right?
• 40:21
  This is like because like you like you're gonna
• 40:24
  win 10 games on people to show it like just Showing
• 40:28
  up and dying, you know, right? And so okay, so
• 40:32
  Murray has Murray has 50 million this year 53
• 40:36
  million next year and 57 that year after That
• 40:39
  salary, that's hard. That's a hard asset. It's
• 40:44
  a hard salary to move with a smaller guard that's
• 40:48
  had his own injuries, struggles. He's been okay
• 40:51
  the last few years, injury -wise, but it's a
• 40:55
  lot of money for not a top 30 player in the league.
• 40:59
  The thing about that is, essentially, PK age
• 41:01
  is 26, but guards will start climbing. He's 30
• 41:06
  now. You're paying them high money. The problem
• 41:08
  with that is you haven't really seen the results
• 41:12
  you'd want from that team right now. And again,
• 41:16
  this is a little bit like what happened with
• 41:17
  Milwaukee, where you're in a situation where
• 41:19
  you have the onus and you need to move some of
• 41:22
  these guys to get assets around it, right? And
• 41:25
  I think, again, this is what the Celtics just
• 41:26
  did, which is like, hey, we've got Tatum, but
• 41:30
  we need to rejigger this team for the next five
• 41:32
  years. You've got to take the turn going so you
• 41:33
  don't get too stagnant. And really I mean like
• 41:37
  I think the Warriors managed to do it with curry
• 41:39
  But then they didn't they really haven't done
• 41:42
  it for this one because they they've got too
• 41:44
  old them, right? so I think it becomes the thing
• 41:46
  where like you need to kind of rejigger the contracts
• 41:48
  and we digger the timeline and I don't know that
• 41:51
  that front office like knows what they're doing
• 41:54
  and you think they sold last year because they
• 41:56
  they traded Michael Porter jr. And that was the
• 42:01
  thing that like happened for them. So Like, when
• 42:04
  I'm looking at that, Temma might be the team
• 42:08
  where I'm kind of looking, which is like, what
• 42:12
  are their losses this year? Hey Arturo, this
• 42:17
  is just, as you're looking for that, this is
• 42:19
  just a little bit of breaking news. But for anime
• 42:21
  fans and boxing fans, the author of Ashita Nojo,
• 42:26
  Tetsuya Chiba, has passed away. Of course, Ashita
• 42:30
  Nojo, the legendary boxing manga Inspired a lot
• 42:36
  of animes you guys see that cross punch in like
• 42:38
  Dragon Ball or whatever Pokemon whatever anime
• 42:40
  you watch it came from Ashita no Joe. So Rest
• 42:44
  in peace Tetsuya Chiba Really? Yeah I'll also
• 42:59
  take this opportunity to do another to do another
• 43:02
  read because We are of course not just sponsored
• 43:05
  by poly market, but we are sponsored of course
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• 44:11
  so by the way um the three the three and o teams
• 44:15
  right which do we think are in real trouble oh
• 44:18
  and sorry the own three teams which would be
• 44:19
  like the heat it's a heat the nicks the foxes
• 44:21
  and the nets obviously i think the nets are the
• 44:24
  nets but i think i think the nicks is a little
• 44:27
  bit like more fraudulent i mean i do think the
• 44:29
  nicks are better than that but i do think that
• 44:31
  they have their own issues yeah i i still think
• 44:33
  the nicks are a playoff team but i think I think
• 44:37
  because they won the title, we forget they were
• 44:39
  the three seed last year and got worse. So I
• 44:41
  think, I think they, especially in their stronger
• 44:43
  East, they could be flirting with the play in
• 44:45
  this year. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like, so if we
• 44:48
  think about the standings last year, uh, they
• 44:52
  were, they're very much a team that was built
• 44:56
  for the playoffs. They were, uh, they're 53 and
• 44:59
  29, but I mean, the thing with them is like,
• 45:02
  they were better once you... Trying to tighten
• 45:05
  it down and gotten to like the rhythm of how
• 45:07
  they play, right? But yeah, as you're saying,
• 45:11
  I mean, I think they're probably I mean they
• 45:13
  may have gotten to the point where like they
• 45:15
  may be like they may just be like a 48 49 with
• 45:18
  team and I do think as you said Like I think
• 45:19
  everything like is better around them right now.
• 45:22
  Let's get Like I'm rating them as like 33, but
• 45:26
  I do think part of that is I do think they have
• 45:27
  a lot of like like like preseason kind of like
• 45:34
  Hangover with like the whole dolan and kind of
• 45:36
  like capping Like this is some of the guys and
• 45:39
  like yeah, I mean like it is kind of like a weird
• 45:42
  Situation I do think again. I do think the roster
• 45:44
  that roster still good, right? Oh, yeah, I'm
• 45:48
  much I'm much less worried about them than Miami
• 45:50
  I I went under on our predictions on Miami, but
• 45:53
  I I'm questioning if they can even get to 40
• 45:56
  with this roster now Yeah, I mean again. The
• 45:59
  problem is is like you look at it. You know,
• 46:01
  this doesn't make a lot of sense, right? This
• 46:03
  is What was the record with Milwaukee? I mean,
• 46:06
  how many games did you like? So Milwaukee last
• 46:08
  season was like, uh, there are 32 and 50, right?
• 46:14
  And how many games, how many games do you have?
• 46:21
  Cause I'm trying to go like, is this, is this
• 46:23
  Miami roster objectively better than Milwaukee
• 46:26
  roster? I'll tell you what, you know, why you
• 46:31
  guys are looking at that. I think the warriors
• 46:33
  are in trouble. I mean, yes, you just, at some
• 46:36
  point they're going to run out. They, you know,
• 46:38
  they're just those, you know, they need a youth
• 46:42
  movement. I just don't, I mean, I don't know
• 46:45
  if they'll make the playoffs this year. I don't
• 46:47
  think that, because I made a prediction that
• 46:51
  they're going to surprise people because I think
• 46:54
  that they have enough of that salary cap to really
• 46:57
  move pieces around and get some people by probably
• 47:00
  by February. but right now how they look it's
• 47:03
  it's not it's not a good look but again it's
• 47:06
  not like the final it's only i think that you're
• 47:08
  seeing with them is the same thing you're seeing
• 47:10
  with the Knicks where you know they just i mean
• 47:13
  the Knicks have been through two very long arduous
• 47:16
  post seasons You're going to have to rest up
• 47:19
  a little bit, but I think you'll find out. I
• 47:23
  think these are two teams you're going to learn
• 47:24
  a lot more by January than you do now. Give me
• 47:28
  15 games of this because we've seen this picture
• 47:30
  before with her and Steph. That's true. Because
• 47:34
  again, the thing with Kerry is Kerry's always
• 47:35
  going to make the guys around them better because
• 47:37
  it's just an offensive force. So I would like
• 47:41
  to see them go a little bit more before I count
• 47:43
  it. But again, they do have... I do have them
• 47:45
  on my list as a team that could like they're
• 47:47
  they definitely have tradable pieces, right?
• 47:51
  Yeah, um, yeah They're they're I mean like if
• 47:53
  i'm looking at their contracts like warriors
• 47:55
  i'm pretty sure they got some apparent color
• 47:57
  Like Yannis was 17 and 19 last year Yeah, he
• 48:03
  didn't play that many games either. So like and
• 48:05
  then yeah, golden state has butler's expiring
• 48:08
  contract and they have the porzingis contract
• 48:10
  That's essentially an expiring to trade So, Butler
• 48:13
  has a two -year. So, Butler has a contract that
• 48:23
  he has 56 aspiring next year, right? So, you
• 48:27
  can definitely move that contract, right? Obviously,
• 48:31
  past the deadline. I think where Sing is, is
• 48:34
  a movable contract, too. So, they have, well,
• 48:37
  actually, it's a player, he has a player option
• 48:39
  for 20 million, 27, 28, but... It's partially
• 48:43
  guaranteed. I think it's only like a million
• 48:44
  or something guaranteed. Right, but I mean like
• 48:47
  you can you can the Warriors can put together
• 48:49
  like I mean shit Draymond's 1 .7 That's right
• 48:55
  dream on six fire into you can you can like the
• 48:57
  Warriors can put together like 120 million That's
• 49:01
  what I was saying during the preview they have
• 49:05
  dealt with these contracts coming up. They'll
• 49:07
  be able to like formulate something by midseason
• 49:11
  They never they rarely do that like they want
• 49:15
  me I mean, yeah, they they don't they like usually
• 49:18
  stick to what they have but And lend them or
• 49:21
  if they don't choose to he's living up to the
• 49:22
  hype so far. They're rookie this year Yeah, the
• 49:25
  rookie. I like the rookie. I think lindenberg's
• 49:27
  good. I think uh pods is good Uh, I mean like
• 49:31
  good for the price tag But again, the problem
• 49:33
  is like I would rather if they just have pod
• 49:35
  and lumber and curry and then like they trade
• 49:37
  all the pets for like For like actual asset like
• 49:40
  so like that then that actually might be good
• 49:42
  The problem is curry is this kind of this is
• 49:44
  why I thought curry was gonna walk for curry
• 49:46
  was gonna demand like here's like does he stick
• 49:49
  around? I mean, he's got like 55 and 60 and I
• 49:53
  mean I 39 does curry sticker does curry retire
• 49:56
  as a word It's like is an interesting question.
• 49:59
  He has to I can't imagine him. He's so beloved
• 50:03
  there. That would be that would be That would
• 50:06
  be Wayne Gretzky level leaving if he didn't retire
• 50:09
  there. He basically signed the Kobe contract.
• 50:13
  Yeah. I don't even want to think about that.
• 50:17
  He's just so beloved with kids, just cross -country
• 50:20
  identified with that team. They grew up with
• 50:22
  him. You know, he's there Jordan it just didn't
• 50:24
  be hard. I can't imagine him not playing not
• 50:27
  finishing there But do you guys want okay? So,
• 50:30
  uh, just so you guys know the Brewers beat the
• 50:32
  Tampa Bay Rays tonight game three world series
• 50:35
  10 to 1 so the Brewers Uh are close to matching
• 50:41
  the 1976 Cincinnati Reds as the only two teams
• 50:46
  to ever finish their post -seasons with sweeps.
• 50:50
  The Cincinnati Reds in 1976 defeated the Philadelphia
• 50:53
  Phillies with Mike Schmidt and Tug McGraw in
• 50:56
  three games. And then they went to the World
• 50:59
  Series and they beat the New York Yankees. They're
• 51:01
  the only team in Major League history to sweep
• 51:03
  the Yankees in a World Series. They beat Thurman
• 51:05
  Monson and Reggie Jackson and all. I don't think
• 51:08
  Reggie was there yet, but they were loaded. But
• 51:11
  they weren't loaded for the Reds. The Rhodes
• 51:13
  beat them in four games. And then the Milwaukee
• 51:16
  Brewers, the 27th... the 27th size market in
• 51:20
  Major League Baseball just had their first 100
• 51:23
  win season this way. They beat the race 10 into
• 51:25
  one. They gave up three hits, one error. So they're
• 51:29
  set this if they win on Tuesday next, let's see
• 51:32
  if they win tomorrow at Tampa, they'll sweep
• 51:34
  the they'll sweep the series. Ames on Fox at
• 51:37
  eight o 'clock. Right now, Milwaukee's minus
• 51:40
  135. They got an over -under 7 .5. Yeah. After
• 51:43
  they scored 10 runs, I probably would add something
• 51:45
  to the over -under. They're at about 97%. Yes.
• 51:49
  They're going to win a world series on polymarket.
• 51:52
  That's pretty much a lot. Essentially, they've
• 51:56
  been the best team in baseball the entire season.
• 51:59
  Oh yeah. And we were kind of, as I said, the
• 52:02
  big bet on that was we talked about it, the Rays
• 52:05
  and the Brewers looked at the teams that were
• 52:08
  going to get there. The Brewers looked like the
• 52:09
  best team. The National League was pretty loaded,
• 52:13
  so it was kind of like the hard levels getting
• 52:15
  through the National League. And this is why
• 52:18
  we really liked that first fine winner. Because
• 52:21
  I think that like, quick, quick, quick, who was,
• 52:26
  oh. I think the last time the Milwaukee won the
• 52:30
  series is the Milwaukee Braves and I think uh,
• 52:33
  Hank Aaron was on it. I would say. Oh, let me
• 52:35
  look it up. I think Hank Aaron ruled. I miss
• 52:43
  Hank Aaron. What a cool dude. I want to say like
• 52:48
  54. That sounds about right. Yeah, it was the
• 52:53
  uh, it was in 57, 57 where the Brewer Braves
• 52:56
  beat the New York Yankees. Yeah, that's it. 57.
• 53:01
  I used to read, I used to read a lot of like
• 53:04
  stat books through the, uh, for MLB. Uh, what
• 53:07
  can Brave Walls do? You know, they just moved
• 53:10
  her from Boston a couple of years prior to that.
• 53:12
  And I think that's one reason the Brewers ended
• 53:14
  up in the National League Central is because
• 53:16
  of the Braves. They were always kind of a National
• 53:18
  League town with Molitor and Yalt in those years.
• 53:21
  They had in the eighties and nineties in the
• 53:23
  seventies, obviously, when they were You know,
• 53:25
  when they were expansion, they went American
• 53:26
  league, but, you know, early, I think around
• 53:29
  98, 99, they moved over to the national league,
• 53:31
  but they just had, this was the first hundred
• 53:33
  year season. There was 27. It's a lot of people
• 53:36
  are pointing to them to say that the market equity
• 53:38
  is a lot better in baseball than people were
• 53:40
  given credit for. But I think that's really going
• 53:43
  to get tested after the series because, you know,
• 53:46
  let's say they win or they don't, I mean, even
• 53:49
  if they get this far, they got all these young.
• 53:51
  players they got to start locking up if they
• 53:53
  want to keep this team together. But that's not
• 53:56
  probably gonna happen. It's right now and right
• 53:58
  now it seemed like even in baseball It's like
• 54:01
  you look at teams like even like boston which
• 54:03
  pretend, you know philadelphia is starting to
• 54:04
  let guys go It's becoming it seems like there's
• 54:08
  now only two large markets in baseball and everybody
• 54:11
  else is kind of shoving everybody off Well, I
• 54:13
  think and and god I hate having this conversation
• 54:17
  right now. I mean like one of the things that
• 54:19
  like okay So we are artificially in an air like
• 54:22
  so if you look at the at the 20th century, right?
• 54:25
  Yeah, he's moved right and the reason teams move
• 54:28
  market to market and city of city is because
• 54:31
  cities and markets change right and so what was
• 54:36
  a vibrant top ten city in 1930 is not a vibrant
• 54:42
  often sitting necessarily 1980 so yeah these
• 54:45
  move larger market because essentially markets
• 54:48
  that you want to have the teams in the biggest
• 54:50
  markets because they can afford that and Baseball
• 54:54
  of all the sports and I actually done the studies
• 54:55
  on this. I have an article I don't know if it's
• 54:57
  still up about like can you take in your team
• 54:59
  afford like how? How many franchises or committee
• 55:03
  or sports teams can they afford to have which
• 55:04
  looks at you like you purchase the power for
• 55:06
  the city how many teams you have I don't know
• 55:08
  which is full income you have because baseball
• 55:10
  has 81 home games, right? Um, so yeah by having
• 55:15
  that many home games That means you have to have
• 55:17
  a lot of supposed to win them to support a team
• 55:19
  And those larger markets also like attractive
• 55:21
  TV money, local TV deal. And that makes so that
• 55:23
  you have baseball is very much out of all of
• 55:26
  them is a local market. But if you, if you want
• 55:29
  to keep teams in small markets, what ends up
• 55:32
  happening is essentially like those small markets
• 55:34
  can't really compete effectively unless the owners
• 55:37
  are willing to revenue share, which is what happens
• 55:39
  in the NFL. The NFL is a very particular beast
• 55:42
  because the majority of the revenue for the NFL
• 55:44
  is coming from TV deals and that's shared. So
• 55:47
  I as if I have an NFL license I can fucking compete
• 55:50
  it doesn't like if I have a shingle I have an
• 55:52
  NFL team I can immediately compete because I
• 55:55
  basically I am getting enough revenue to compete
• 55:58
  with everyone else because the money like the
• 56:00
  local market doesn't matter really that much
• 56:02
  and in general like the NFL teams are gonna be
• 56:04
  put in places where it like even like someone
• 56:05
  like Green Bay you're gonna be able to sell the
• 56:07
  tickets on premium because even Green Bay is
• 56:09
  getting people locked right so you're you're
• 56:12
  essentially like locked into competition NBA
• 56:14
  isn't quite that way because NBA does have like
• 56:18
  a significant share of revenue that's coming
• 56:19
  in from the TV deal, but a lot of that money
• 56:23
  is also coming in from like the local market.
• 56:25
  So the Knicks, the Celtics, the Lakers, the Bulls,
• 56:30
  even though the Bulls kind of suck, will have
• 56:31
  an advantage, right? Yeah. Baseball doesn't work
• 56:34
  that way because the way baseball works is the
• 56:36
  small market. They play every day. Well, I mean,
• 56:38
  we've seen this model. The Marlins used to thrive
• 56:41
  with this model, which essentially what they
• 56:42
  do is you essentially build out your farm system
• 56:46
  with the understanding that you're going to contend
• 56:48
  for a short window and then you're going to have
• 56:50
  to sell all your talent and then take all that
• 56:53
  money, reinvest it in the farm system, compete
• 56:55
  for a short window, then sell all your talent.
• 56:58
  Because effectively, the teams, the larger market
• 57:01
  teams, as they've gotten smart, and I've actually
• 57:03
  talked to teams and done consulting for teams.
• 57:06
  20 years ago teams were dumb. Teams are not dumb
• 57:08
  now. The Yankees aren't dumb. The Lakers... I
• 57:12
  missed those franchises. The Cubs aren't dumb.
• 57:15
  All these franchises like that, like the larger
• 57:17
  market franchises will have enough money to basically
• 57:20
  like invest in the farm system and the way to
• 57:23
  compete if you're a smaller market team. I'm
• 57:25
  thinking of like the Royals a few years back.
• 57:27
  Like last World Series game I went in person
• 57:29
  was like Metis Royals. And that royal steam or
• 57:32
  like the modern seems to have been good. I think
• 57:33
  the raise a little bit or like that too. And
• 57:36
  I think the brewers too are like, you essentially
• 57:38
  like you target a window. You say, look, I'm
• 57:41
  going to build out the farm system for this particular
• 57:42
  window with the understanding that like there's
• 57:44
  going to come a time where we're essentially
• 57:46
  not going to be able to keep the steam long -term
• 57:48
  because from a fiscal business point of view,
• 57:51
  it's going to be better for us to sell town,
• 57:52
  right? And then reinvest it. I mean like you
• 57:56
  even look at Shinjiro Atani moving from the Angels
• 57:58
  to the Dodgers and that's just like a cross town
• 58:01
  move and how much higher is his net worth became
• 58:04
  moving becoming a LA Dodger. The bigger markets
• 58:09
  offer you these opportunities and you are going
• 58:11
  to get that and that's why these salary caps
• 58:13
  won't really work to keep these players in these
• 58:16
  specific smaller markets. Because they're always
• 58:19
  going to find your money my way You reminded
• 58:21
  me of the the great the great one of the great
• 58:24
  baseball tweets from 1920 -21 from 2020 -21 I
• 58:28
  think like uh like bj I don't know if you've
• 58:29
  heard this much is every time I see an angel's
• 58:32
  highlight It's like my trout hit three home runs
• 58:34
  and raises average to 5 28 while shoyotani did
• 58:37
  something that hasn't been done since of the
• 58:41
  1921 acron gruser as the tigers defeated the
• 58:44
  angels beat the three. Yes. Yeah Well, it just
• 58:48
  shows you just, I mean, it's a 20, you got to
• 58:50
  have a 20, you got to have 26 guys. It doesn't
• 58:53
  come. I mean, you can have two or three. I mean,
• 58:54
  for the longest time they're, they're middle
• 58:56
  three and, and, and, and was, was poo holes,
• 59:00
  Albert Pujols or maybe the greatest national
• 59:02
  league hitter to ever live. You know, uh, Mike
• 59:05
  trout and, and, and, uh, you know, Ohtani and,
• 59:09
  and they still, they didn't win. Um, It comes
• 59:13
  it takes a lot to put a baseball team together.
• 59:15
  I think you can get guys to stay I think you
• 59:18
  can get guys to be in the smaller cities. It
• 59:20
  just It just takes the right guy and I also think
• 59:25
  I think a salary cap would help you just it's
• 59:27
  right now Just the right now the way the system
• 59:30
  set up by the way, just Wilson Contreras Okay,
• 59:33
  catcher for the Brewers. If you don't follow
• 59:35
  baseball contrarious I know well because I see
• 59:37
  him come in here and beat the living crap out
• 59:39
  of the Reds But his his postseason This is his
• 59:43
  postseason this year in 10 games 395 average
• 59:47
  477 on base. He's a slugging about 700 says ops
• 59:51
  is around 1135 Yeah, five runs 15 hits three
• 59:57
  home runs seven RBI six walks. He's hitting God
• 1:00:01
  I think in the series easy. He's hitting 419
• 1:00:04
  in the first three games of the World Series
• 1:00:06
  tonight He had that he was three for five with
• 1:00:08
  a run an RBI and he also struck out This is a
• 1:00:14
  question. I got it for you Arturo The Braves
• 1:00:17
  and the Brewers were the two teams in the in
• 1:00:19
  the MLB in one category They were one and two
• 1:00:23
  the Brewers number one that the Braves were number
• 1:00:25
  two. It was batting average So is batting average
• 1:00:29
  now coming back as far as a top metric? No, I
• 1:00:32
  mean like we did this, and we did this exercise,
• 1:00:35
  very statistical exercise, and there's five stats
• 1:00:38
  that predict how likely you are to win the World
• 1:00:41
  Series. And really the first one is, you know
• 1:00:43
  what, are you familiar with what's called like
• 1:00:45
  batted balls, like hard hit balls? You know what
• 1:00:47
  that is? Yes, yes. Babbit. Babbit, like what
• 1:00:51
  we talked about, I actually like the metric I
• 1:00:54
  use for fantasy sports for like... I provided
• 1:00:57
  is hard hit balls, right? You say like how many
• 1:00:59
  balls are you hitting like out of the outfield
• 1:01:01
  of percentage of balls? So like percentage of
• 1:01:03
  runs scored by hit be home run, pitching staff,
• 1:01:07
  like strike out the walk differential, like how
• 1:01:09
  much like, especially like how many like good
• 1:01:11
  strikes are you throwing versus balls, high leverage
• 1:01:14
  reliever strikeouts. So even more than that,
• 1:01:16
  like the bullpen is the bullpen like, like striking
• 1:01:19
  out. And then how good you are in terms of putting
• 1:01:21
  up runs against like good actual teams, right?
• 1:01:24
  So run the front. But the big one is like, and
• 1:01:26
  it's the same thing you do for fantasy, which
• 1:01:28
  is it's bad at balls, baby. It's like how like
• 1:01:31
  balls like you're getting out of the outfield
• 1:01:33
  is the one that like, so even more than average
• 1:01:35
  and more than anything else, it's basically good
• 1:01:38
  contact, right? Ultimately, it's making good
• 1:01:40
  contact and making smart contact, right? And
• 1:01:44
  weirdly gets into like, have you ever read the
• 1:01:46
  Ted Williams book about hitting? Oh, yeah. Yeah,
• 1:01:50
  Joey Vados had a copy of it that was absolutely
• 1:01:53
  falling apart by the time he got to the major
• 1:01:55
  leagues. He had it in the Dayton drag when he
• 1:01:57
  was in single -leg Dayton. He had it in the locker
• 1:01:59
  room. If people don't know the life story of
• 1:02:00
  Ted Williams, Ted Williams was not only one of
• 1:02:03
  the greatest hitters ever, but he was also one
• 1:02:06
  of the greatest, like... Americans. He was the
• 1:02:09
  greatest American fighter pilots because the
• 1:02:12
  thing with Ted Williams that made him so good
• 1:02:14
  was his eyesight was insane. And he would talk
• 1:02:17
  about being able to count the scenes on the baseballs.
• 1:02:19
  You'd be able to see the scenes of the balls
• 1:02:21
  coming in. And so he could see the ball and essentially
• 1:02:24
  like there's two tricks for hitting, which is
• 1:02:26
  you have to be able to see the ball. And the
• 1:02:28
  other part is like, can you get like, so can
• 1:02:30
  you hit the ball and control it? Like I used
• 1:02:32
  to call like when you swing, like when you hit,
• 1:02:34
  it's not just like hacking at the ball. It's
• 1:02:36
  like, can you get to the point where like, He's
• 1:02:39
  the guy that's cryogenically frozen, right? Yes.
• 1:02:43
  When he passed away, his family froze him in
• 1:02:46
  a lab. I think it's either New Mexico or... But
• 1:02:50
  to get what Arturo's saying... It's like if you
• 1:02:53
  can control the ball, which is like... I think
• 1:02:55
  youth baseball sometimes confuses that because
• 1:02:57
  they tell you, oh, use a heavier bat. But effectively,
• 1:02:59
  I always found that I always hit better with
• 1:03:01
  a lighter bat because I would have... Even though
• 1:03:04
  I lost some power... I would be able to get the
• 1:03:06
  bat around quicker and get it on the ball right
• 1:03:09
  where I wanted and I could be able to control
• 1:03:11
  the ball and move it to different places so like
• 1:03:13
  the really great hitters can basically like move
• 1:03:16
  the ball around like they can basically place
• 1:03:18
  the ball right and and that's kind of like what
• 1:03:21
  it comes down to it's like it's like hitting
• 1:03:22
  it hard but also being able to place it in the
• 1:03:24
  right place right that's kind of the whole thing
• 1:03:26
  in tricks it's it's more than although i mean
• 1:03:29
  like getting on base is a great skill you want
• 1:03:31
  to like guys who have like it's on base percentage
• 1:03:34
  too is the other one that's like really important
• 1:03:36
  even more than average right Like, so like the,
• 1:03:38
  uh, the, uh, the each year old, the each year
• 1:03:41
  old stuff, like guys will get on base and then
• 1:03:43
  guys who can basically hit the ball. That was
• 1:03:45
  pretty much the stat that, that the book money
• 1:03:48
  ball, you know, you know, Kevin Euclid, who's
• 1:03:52
  from Cincinnati, the Greek God of walks. Uh,
• 1:03:55
  I, uh, you know, one thing about Ted Williams
• 1:03:58
  too. During two periods of his baseball career
• 1:04:01
  during his prime he got called in to be a fighter
• 1:04:03
  pilot During the World War two and Korea war
• 1:04:06
  he was John and he was also a lot of people know
• 1:04:09
  a lot of people notice But John Glenn was his
• 1:04:11
  wingman Korea. Yes, they flew f80. They flew
• 1:04:14
  f80s together John Glenn was his wingman in the
• 1:04:18
  in the in the Marine Air Yeah, there's a pretty
• 1:04:22
  good argument that like Willie Mays and Ted Williams
• 1:04:25
  would both have the Like they'd have the home
• 1:04:28
  run record its record without the war service
• 1:04:31
  because like I think Williams I think I think
• 1:04:33
  Mays lost three seasons So Mays was 52 and 53
• 1:04:39
  right and I think Williams So Ted Milliams was
• 1:04:44
  like 40. Well, I think there was a couple yet
• 1:04:46
  because of the years they didn't have the league
• 1:04:49
  World War two shut it down and I think he also
• 1:04:51
  missed a year and a half two years in Korea So
• 1:04:54
  you're talking the first ten years of his career
• 1:04:57
  like four of them five of them. He didn't even
• 1:04:59
  play That's not which is insane You know and
• 1:05:04
  also yeah a lot of the records would be completely
• 1:05:06
  different if if Williams was playing because
• 1:05:09
  I mean he was the last guy to hit 400 Think if
• 1:05:15
  he mazes the greatest baseball player, so Williams
• 1:05:18
  hit that one was hit like two six five four and
• 1:05:21
  five to one and He probably would have been like
• 1:05:24
  three thousand six hundred hits more or less
• 1:05:27
  Like around that I think like was it like I forget
• 1:05:29
  like hub number like three one four two Like
• 1:05:32
  I used to know the I used to know all these numbers
• 1:05:35
  41 92 it was a tyke 4191 i think was a tyke on
• 1:05:40
  point out for one for 189 yeah so the uh hold
• 1:05:43
  on it's uh tyke cob and the babe uh ruth the
• 1:05:50
  great bambino the sultan of swat yeah cob was
• 1:05:53
  4189 yeah something like it's more likely that
• 1:05:57
  that that that williams probably would have hit
• 1:05:59
  more home runs than than yeah Probably. There's
• 1:06:03
  a lot of questions when you go through there.
• 1:06:05
  I mean, you start going through those stats and
• 1:06:07
  it's just like, holy crap, this is what have
• 1:06:09
  been completely. It's like, I mean, you look
• 1:06:11
  at the nigger leagues with guys and you look
• 1:06:12
  at some of the, you know, you look at, um, you
• 1:06:17
  know, it had really changed some things as well.
• 1:06:19
  Williams is probably the biggest question mark
• 1:06:20
  just because of the bat, him and Mays, obviously,
• 1:06:23
  because Mays, I think Mays, a lot of people consider
• 1:06:26
  May the greatest, Mays the greatest all around
• 1:06:28
  baseball player ever lived. Um, I think kid griffey
• 1:06:31
  jr would have been out there if he hadn't got
• 1:06:32
  hurt in his 30s my guy Yeah, I was my guy as
• 1:06:36
  a kid I watched I tell you watch I watched griffey
• 1:06:39
  play on some reds teams That rap was really horrible
• 1:06:41
  and he was still by far the most of him He was
• 1:06:43
  so good even with like his leg all torn up. It
• 1:06:45
  was just he was so unbelievable to watch so Hard
• 1:06:49
  had those cross trainers, but you know, we talked
• 1:06:50
  about big markets, right? And you know, our show
• 1:06:53
  state of wrestling is known for media deals.
• 1:06:56
  And we've been talking about the ESPN plus sort
• 1:06:59
  of like failing as an app, right? And that's
• 1:07:01
  been all over the news. So tonight for Monday
• 1:07:04
  night football, the Dallas Cowboys versus the
• 1:07:09
  Philadelphia Eagles was simulcast, not on the,
• 1:07:12
  well, they're on ESPN plus, but also on Disney
• 1:07:16
  plus the absolute. Yeah. It was simulcast on
• 1:07:20
  Disney plus tonight. Yeah. I mean, they've been
• 1:07:22
  moving. They've been moving. No, I mean like
• 1:07:31
  well, I mean like the the thing on that is is
• 1:07:33
  is they're clearly If I and I've talked about
• 1:07:37
  them before I mean like they're always by the
• 1:07:38
  way the Cowboys looked excellent tonight How
• 1:07:44
  about them? Did you know Luca Donkik was born
• 1:07:47
  after the Cowboys last won the Super Bowl? Jason
• 1:07:54
  Tatum something like i think something something
• 1:08:02
  like something like 90 like 90 percent of all
• 1:08:05
  the players in that world series were born after
• 1:08:07
  i think he won that probably um yeah it's like
• 1:08:10
  the joke with the the running joke is i believe
• 1:08:13
  the cowboys have not made a conference final
• 1:08:15
  since the symptoms episode about like the cowboys
• 1:08:18
  and broncos um and i think i think the broncos
• 1:08:21
  have won like three super bowl since that like
• 1:08:23
  uh more like basically the whole thing is like
• 1:08:27
  I believe. Yeah. I believe. Yeah. Like Homer,
• 1:08:29
  like once a football team, like the hand score
• 1:08:31
  field, the billionaire gives them the Denver
• 1:08:33
  Broncos instead of the Cowboys. And since that
• 1:08:36
  time, the Cowboys have not made a conference
• 1:08:37
  finals. The Broncos won three super switches.
• 1:08:41
  Homer Simpson, a better, a more winning order
• 1:08:43
  than Tony Khan, then Shad Khan. Just got to say
• 1:08:46
  that. Yeah. Yeah. Jay Stanford Bayless. I'm joking.
• 1:09:20
  I'm joking. I'm joking. I'm joking. Yeah, man
• 1:10:17
  my my Niners lost last night to like the Falcons
• 1:10:21
  They finally lost their streak. I I kind of saw
• 1:10:25
  it happening The Falcons were the right team
• 1:10:28
  to beat them with how they played so, you know
• 1:10:31
  It's football any given Sunday, you know, yeah.
• 1:10:35
  Yeah seriously Yeah, I think they just haven't
• 1:11:26
  been able to find the guy because they've like
• 1:11:28
  receivers in and out and I think the trick with
• 1:11:31
  that is they should be following if I were San
• 1:11:33
  Francisco and I have birdie I would kind of follow
• 1:11:36
  the Patriots model when the early part of Tom
• 1:11:39
  Brady's career which is you know you build a
• 1:11:42
  team around give him guys that he can work the
• 1:11:46
  ball to underneath you don't I don't need a field
• 1:11:48
  stretch necessarily I need I need the tight end
• 1:11:50
  like get me like stud tight ends get me guys
• 1:11:53
  who can run you give me guys who can run underneath
• 1:11:56
  and like run space and like so I can essentially
• 1:11:59
  let the guy who is talented at like moving the
• 1:12:02
  ball around like have guys who can make plays
• 1:12:06
  like essentially what they need is to get guys
• 1:12:08
  who make plays in space and let the quarterback
• 1:12:10
  let they give the quarterback the ability to
• 1:12:12
  put it in a place where like the defense has
• 1:12:15
  to account for that guy who's like two three
• 1:12:16
  four five yards downfield right because that
• 1:12:19
  will work Mean how old how old is George Kittle
• 1:12:28
  at this point? He's 33 I mean like essentially
• 1:12:40
  like what is it? That was one of my grandpa's
• 1:13:44
  guys just wanted to say that PJ. Yeah, even Even
• 1:13:48
  with like McCarthy. They just don't really have
• 1:13:50
  a homerun hitter on that offense. Everything
• 1:13:52
  is chunk yard. She's No, not the last undefeated
• 1:14:27
  team. My bike means they're still undefeated
• 1:14:31
  They have won 11 in a row. It's a big it's a
• 1:14:34
  big year for minutes The Vikings the Vikings
• 1:14:44
  are so fucking weird They're very weird They're
• 1:14:48
  on the weirdest team like I'm like looking at
• 1:14:50
  their like I'm like looking at NFL yellow It's
• 1:14:52
  a silent track like for that. It's kind of like
• 1:14:54
  I miss old football outsiders I can do that but
• 1:14:56
  like gives me an idea kind of like our rankings
• 1:14:58
  for all these teams and the Vikings are like
• 1:15:00
  They're ranked 13th in the league at the moment
• 1:15:02
  on that it's like bill and the rams which are
• 1:15:05
  like two and four rank like climbing because
• 1:15:07
  the brand won this week so they're free um so
• 1:15:10
  they hasn't hit but like it's just a weird thing
• 1:15:13
  i think partly because they're in the north uh
• 1:15:17
  and i think what's their schedule like so far
• 1:15:19
  this season so i think so they so they mean so
• 1:15:21
  they beat the colts and they beat the saints
• 1:15:23
  and they beat the dolphins which is like come
• 1:15:24
  on and they beat the buccaneers like the first
• 1:15:27
  four wins are like okay dude And then they beat
• 1:15:30
  the Bears when the Bears lost. They didn't have
• 1:15:33
  the quarterback. They had the guy. I think the
• 1:15:37
  back was working. So they had a guy. I think
• 1:15:41
  the Bears basically rolled out. Didn't they roll
• 1:15:42
  out like a practice squad guy? And then they
• 1:15:46
  beat the back. So essentially, if you look at
• 1:15:48
  their six games, you're like, bro, right? They
• 1:15:54
  got the lions on Sunday. And ooh. Yep. Yeah,
• 1:16:23
  by the way, if I remember that game, so yeah,
• 1:16:27
  the killed one got hurt, they put in Tyson Baggett,
• 1:16:30
  and I think that game I remember correctly came
• 1:16:32
  down to last play of the fucking game. Like if
• 1:16:35
  I remember correctly, didn't the Bears have the
• 1:16:39
  ball with the possibility of scoring at the end?
• 1:16:42
  I'm, shit, I'm trying to remember. Again, it's
• 1:16:45
  like I'm remembering that, I was watching that
• 1:16:46
  game, I was like. I think you're right, I think
• 1:16:50
  they did, They get out down to the red zone and
• 1:16:54
  turn it over on downs. So I got a 21 -year pass.
• 1:16:57
  They got Yep Yeah, they got it. They got it.
• 1:17:08
  They got it down to they got it down to Caleb
• 1:17:10
  Williams scores and wins the game territory essentially
• 1:17:14
  and like I mean like again Not not not discredit.
• 1:17:17
  Well, actually I am discrediting them a little
• 1:17:19
  bit. I'm just saying like looking at their schedule
• 1:17:21
  I don't think this was actually painting like
• 1:17:23
  Minnesota really hasn't played anybody and they're
• 1:17:25
  about they're about they're about to they're
• 1:17:27
  about to They're getting they're going they're
• 1:17:30
  going at Lions at home versus the Bills at Packers
• 1:17:35
  I mean, even though that's a division game the
• 1:17:37
  Packers aren't great, but that's a vision game
• 1:17:39
  and then they go at 49ers So we're about to really
• 1:17:41
  find out this team is good Yeah, where's point
• 1:18:29
  differential in the division No, but the Jaguars
• 1:18:46
  by the way, the Jaguars are like a non fragile.
• 1:18:49
  They're they're like we got him in like they're
• 1:18:51
  like Mean I'll get there. I don't know there
• 1:18:54
  how good they are, but they're good, right? They're
• 1:18:56
  not that's not like it's not a Viking. Yeah,
• 1:19:02
  they're They're third and point differential.
• 1:19:16
  So they are they have the number three defense
• 1:19:18
  in terms of losses are like they lost they lost
• 1:19:20
  to they lost at the Texans sorry, no, they lost
• 1:19:23
  an over sections and they lost at Denver early
• 1:19:27
  in season those games in Denver like like Denver
• 1:19:30
  generally outperforms early in season because
• 1:19:31
  teams are in shape So if you're playing at Denver
• 1:19:34
  You got to deal with the altitude and generally
• 1:19:36
  they the denver generally kind of performs or
• 1:19:38
  business early in season Like by the doesn't
• 1:19:40
  really matter by the end but early in the season
• 1:19:42
  like the uh, the altitude really does matter
• 1:19:44
  Yeah, um and uh, yeah, I mean like and then the
• 1:19:48
  loss of texans game. I do think texans houston
• 1:19:51
  houston isn't I mean I mean, it's a division
• 1:19:54
  game. I think houston's Yeah, there's they might
• 1:20:30
  trade they might know if it's john might end
• 1:20:32
  up I think cam might actually be uh people might
• 1:20:34
  actually get trade or they're gonna try I think
• 1:20:36
  the coach doesn't like him, even though he's
• 1:20:38
  good. I think the coach doesn't like him. He
• 1:20:40
  wants a slightly different type of back. And
• 1:20:43
  there's... Right. Yeah. No, he's very much a
• 1:20:59
  guy who you want as like... It's almost a little
• 1:21:03
  bit like... Reminds me a little bit of the Welker.
• 1:21:05
  If people remember, Welker used to play... Before
• 1:21:08
  he played for the Patriots, he played... Welker
• 1:21:10
  played with the Dolphins and he was that kind
• 1:21:13
  of guy because he's like the bumpy guy. Goes
• 1:21:15
  out in space does things and they use them more
• 1:21:17
  as an utility like use them a kind of running
• 1:21:19
  back too And you can kind of like I think scatable
• 1:21:22
  is the kind of guy you want. Hey a guy can use
• 1:21:25
  in space, right? um Yeah, i'm gonna i'm i'm gonna
• 1:21:54
  put you i'm gonna put you i'm gonna put you guys
• 1:21:56
  on the spot Who do you think wins the afc? the
• 1:22:00
  afc Yeah, I man I want to say buffalo. That's
• 1:22:12
  i'm leaning buffalo too, even though I don't
• 1:22:14
  like their defense, but I mean, I don't think
• 1:22:17
  there's a complete team. I don't believe I don't
• 1:22:20
  believe in Kansas City this year They still have
• 1:22:22
  the problem. We're like brother. You can't just
• 1:22:25
  keep picking receivers on the street. It just
• 1:22:27
  doesn't be you got like they Know this is good,
• 1:22:30
  but you gotta give him somebody who can like
• 1:22:31
  do something, right? Because if not, then it
• 1:22:34
  like and then Kelsey Kelsey is a guy at this
• 1:22:36
  point who should be kind of like You know, it's
• 1:22:38
  like the Tony Gonzalez a lot of part of his career
• 1:22:40
  very safe hands, but he's not gonna break a team
• 1:22:44
  The fact that Travis Kelsey is still their leading
• 1:22:46
  receiver in 2026. Kelsey is perfectly fine. It's
• 1:22:51
  just you don't know. You need to get somebody
• 1:22:53
  who can actually do something. I think Jacksonville
• 1:22:56
  is good, but I don't think Jacksonville is good
• 1:22:58
  enough to make the... They might make the championship
• 1:23:01
  game. Maybe. We'll see. Kelsey's time is definitely
• 1:23:07
  over. I'm saying that as my wife's sitting in
• 1:23:10
  the room because she's a big Travis Kelsey fan.
• 1:23:12
  But definitely his his time is over. I mean the
• 1:23:15
  the like bj bj bj are the bingles real? Yeah,
• 1:23:50
  i'm shocked how good the defense is this year
• 1:24:36
  We have the second best point differential atlanta
• 1:25:02
  is not at atlanta. It's in madrid spain Yeah,
• 1:25:16
  by the way, I don't love these early morning
• 1:25:18
  games as a fan. Uh, like occasionally it's fine
• 1:25:22
  But it's getting to be almost like an every week
• 1:25:24
  thing where we're getting like this very early
• 1:25:25
  morning game. It's just kind of like They played
• 1:25:47
  on four continents this year in the NFL. Yeah,
• 1:26:09
  it's just the division They don't have another
• 1:26:11
  hard game other than the Chiefs in the division
• 1:26:14
  the rest of the way But it does seem like running
• 1:26:42
  back will be available on the deadline right
• 1:26:44
  now We'll see how real that is, but it seems
• 1:26:46
  like Saquon and Jonathan Taylor both might be
• 1:26:49
  on the block So yeah TV by the way DVOA loves
• 1:26:52
  Cincinnati they like so they're number two so
• 1:26:55
  like So yes, basically it's San Francisco Cincinnati
• 1:27:00
  and Jacksonville Yeah, that would be by the way
• 1:27:37
  Okay, so let's talk about the NFC. What do we
• 1:27:41
  got out of the NFC? I would not get out Seattle
• 1:27:57
  I think Seattle's gonna like we're gonna I think
• 1:28:00
  San Francisco Seattle is still gonna be the thing
• 1:28:02
  all the way to the end Yeah, they got a bit of
• 1:28:04
  the hangover. But if you look at the games, they've
• 1:28:06
  actually lost so they lost So they lost by two
• 1:28:11
  points at Washington, they lost to the Niners
• 1:28:14
  by three, and they lost to the Broncos by three,
• 1:28:19
  and then they beat the Tees. So I do think that
• 1:28:21
  Seattle's still like... I like the Seahawks.
• 1:28:26
  We didn't say we can talk about them. The Raiders
• 1:28:49
  are not... Bad they're okay. They're like, they're
• 1:28:53
  not terrible. They're like they're okay All right
• 1:28:58
  Kirk Cousins is very much like we need somebody
• 1:29:00
  who gets like five. Yeah, he's perfect for these
• 1:29:02
  Yeah, he's service of quarterback like he's the
• 1:29:05
  perfect like quarterback bar. Like are you better
• 1:29:08
  or worse than Kirk? Well, I mean I think I think
• 1:29:34
  the giants are actually like the dance are like
• 1:29:36
  the most snake bit team because like I think
• 1:29:38
  that like if they were ever like When they were
• 1:29:40
  they've been healthy last two seasons have been
• 1:29:42
  really good. There's never been fucking healthy
• 1:29:44
  I do think they're going to do like I think the
• 1:29:47
  guys are gonna make some move I don't believe
• 1:29:48
  the Giants haven't yet because I will think that
• 1:29:51
  Um, but I mean like I do think I think we're
• 1:29:54
  still i'm still in san francisco seattle Uh as
• 1:29:57
  kind of like that, that's like the safest bet
• 1:29:59
  And honestly, I think if I had a dark horse,
• 1:30:02
  it might be the Bears, because I do think the
• 1:30:04
  Bears with Caleb Williams, I, you know, I don't
• 1:30:07
  believe Caleb Williams is dead until he's actually
• 1:30:09
  fucking dead, right? Which is kind of, it's a
• 1:30:11
  very, by the way, like the Bears were my team
• 1:30:14
  as a kid and having a Bears quarterback who I
• 1:30:16
  don't believe is dead until he's dead is like
• 1:30:19
  the weirdest fucking thing that's ever happened
• 1:30:20
  in my life. It's just like, like the Bears don't
• 1:30:22
  get guys like that. And, but Caleb Williams.
• 1:30:25
  Caleb is like Caleb. I look at like that Minnesota
• 1:30:28
  game I think if Caleb Williams is out there they
• 1:30:29
  win that fucking game because like I was like
• 1:30:31
  oh Like I think because like the other part of
• 1:30:34
  it is when you have a guy like that It was an
• 1:30:35
  irrationally confident out there the other team
• 1:30:38
  just basically like gets tight And I think that's
• 1:30:40
  kind of like what what that kind of brings to
• 1:30:42
  the table. Yeah What Brett what what Brett farm
• 1:30:51
  used to do the to the Bears like it's like Well,
• 1:30:58
  I mean he did you brother he threw it away he
• 1:31:00
  did throw it away in that game, too So like that
• 1:31:03
  like like Caleb Caleb like when you when you
• 1:31:05
  got a gunslinger gunslingers just fling it brother
• 1:31:07
  like yeah, I don't give a shit about the Rams,
• 1:31:21
  but I mean Like I don't give a shit about the
• 1:31:26
  Rams, but they I mean they could Around man take
• 1:31:32
  me get a little hard to be a top heavy team in
• 1:31:34
  the NFL Mean, I think I think I think honestly,
• 1:31:38
  they're probably they're they're like what the
• 1:31:41
  three and the three and four well They're three
• 1:31:42
  and four right now, but it's like it's like they
• 1:31:44
  lost by 22 the Niners They lost by for the Broncos.
• 1:31:48
  They lost by three to the bills They lost quite
• 1:31:52
  the two to the Cardinals losses bad. Let's that
• 1:31:54
  is a bad loss and they they beat the Raiders
• 1:31:57
  So I mean that team is like, okay Here's the
• 1:32:00
  thing with the Rams Ram so and talent talent
• 1:32:02
  wise that team is fucking down, right? Yellow
• 1:32:08
  yellow yellow yellow has the Rams as number two
• 1:32:12
  in the NFL So I would still say that I think
• 1:32:16
  you're still gonna hear from them But I here's
• 1:32:18
  the thing I do think this I do think the Niners
• 1:32:20
  and the Seahawks are kind of like the three -headed
• 1:32:22
  beast there By the way, we talked I mentioned
• 1:32:24
  we mentioned the Broncos. Do we believe in the
• 1:32:26
  Broncos at all? No, I don't think so. I think
• 1:32:29
  I think the clock struck midnight on Bo Nix and
• 1:32:34
  They have some good wins though. It's kind of
• 1:32:36
  like it's It's weird because like they're scheduled.
• 1:32:40
  I mean like, you know, they they place me It's
• 1:32:42
  not you can't say they haven't played some fucking
• 1:32:43
  games. They played some fucking games Like so
• 1:32:47
  then so they lost it lost to the cheese beat
• 1:32:50
  the yeah, that's a real win. They beat the Rams
• 1:32:52
  That's a real win. They lost five ten points
• 1:32:54
  to look at Niners. No shame in that They beat
• 1:32:56
  the Chargers to beat the Seahawks. They beat
• 1:32:59
  the Cardinals. That's a real fucking sketch.
• 1:33:01
  I mean like You know, I'll say also that is a
• 1:33:04
  real fucking schedule. That's not like that's
• 1:33:06
  not the Minnesota schedule. That's like That's
• 1:33:10
  tough. Oh But yeah guys, I absolutely love having
• 1:33:14
  this talk here I'm gonna throw the flag down
• 1:33:18
  Two -minute warning here. I want to thank everybody
• 1:33:21
  for coming on and listening to us here on You
• 1:33:23
  know this special episode of round ball presented
• 1:33:26
  by poly market again. Everything is tradable
• 1:33:30
  on this future market Go on go on poly market
• 1:33:34
  takes your bets. It's a it's happening By the
• 1:33:39
  way before we close on that topic give me a futures
• 1:33:41
  bet for the NBA, okay? I don't want to repeat
• 1:33:47
  on our prediction. I said aunt for MVP. I still
• 1:33:49
  like that but for futures do something different
• 1:33:53
  Let's go You talked about Houston one seed. Let's
• 1:33:58
  say Memphis to make the playoffs not even in
• 1:34:02
  the play -in like a top six seed. Oh What are
• 1:34:06
  the odds on let me actually check that one NBA
• 1:34:08
  futures? We'll find Memphis So Memphis eight
• 1:34:15
  seed they're like plus 750 don't like that I
• 1:34:18
  got them seven seed Hold on me. Like let me look
• 1:34:23
  at their stands. Let me look at that play. I'm
• 1:34:25
  now I'm trying to figure out What's the biggest
• 1:34:33
  the biggest problem is like their division I
• 1:34:35
  mean there I like Houston so I don't think I
• 1:34:37
  think I don't do the division odds or something
• 1:34:39
  we should even like think about now because that's
• 1:34:42
  like that's like i don't think like it's realistic
• 1:34:44
  uh oh i should still memphis over 34 and a half
• 1:34:49
  wins is still on the board just like brother
• 1:34:52
  kill that minus 125 for memphis over 34 and a
• 1:34:55
  half they're going to slay that you you might
• 1:34:57
  that might pay that might pay out in like january
• 1:35:00
  um i got one since you mentioned divisions too
• 1:35:03
  how about timber wolves to win the northwest
• 1:35:06
  oh oh i like that one what's the odds on that
• 1:35:09
  one Let's see if I can find it real fast here.
• 1:35:14
  Well, I don't know if I love that because I do
• 1:35:17
  think Midas Portland is also good on that. So
• 1:35:19
  actually, that has less leverage than some of
• 1:35:21
  the others. Again, Memphis regular season wins
• 1:35:23
  34 and a half is great. Southwest Division, no.
• 1:35:29
  I'm trying to find, like, make the playoffs for
• 1:35:31
  Memphis. That's what I'm trying to find. Make
• 1:35:34
  the play -in now. Make the playoffs. I want make
• 1:35:41
  the playoffs for Memphis. Oh Memphis over the
• 1:35:46
  ten and a half seed. I love that one Yeah, I
• 1:35:49
  love that that Memphis over the 12th the ten
• 1:35:52
  and a half seed at plus 120 Jesus Christ. Give
• 1:35:54
  me that I mean three monies I mean that's I think
• 1:35:57
  ten and a half so like for reference ten and
• 1:36:00
  a half means they have to finish in the top ten
• 1:36:02
  for the season the Ten seed last year. So hold
• 1:36:07
  on conference the ten seed in both conferences
• 1:36:10
  one, two, three So it was 43 in the East and
• 1:36:16
  it was 37 in the West right so 37 of the West
• 1:36:20
  last season it was 39 in the West so 39 and 39
• 1:36:27
  and we're saying that's saying Memphis to basically
• 1:36:30
  go over Like 38 and I feel like that's like a
• 1:36:34
  really that's yeah, I like that but gee over
• 1:36:39
  over Looks like wolves to win the northwest is
• 1:36:44
  plus 345 on polymark. Yeah, I mean like I Think
• 1:36:48
  there's a wolves to be over the four and a half
• 1:36:50
  C Which is basically you're betting them to be
• 1:36:51
  the three or the four and I think I like that
• 1:36:54
  that one's So that one is wolves over four and
• 1:36:59
  a half seed at minus 105 we should write these
• 1:37:02
  down Larry write these down Okay, uh Yeah, you're
• 1:37:08
  writing down. What's your what's your prediction
• 1:37:10
  Larry? What's your feature? Because I'm a homer
• 1:37:14
  right now. I'm just going to say Luka for MVP.
• 1:37:17
  Finals MVP. Finals MVP? Come on, man. I think
• 1:37:22
  Luka for MVP is actually kind of interesting.
• 1:37:24
  Luka for MVP is actually my thing, but I'm just
• 1:37:27
  being homer right now. You know what? Luka for
• 1:37:30
  MVP is plus 450, right? So typically the way,
• 1:37:34
  and I've done the analysis on this. I actually
• 1:37:36
  have a very good model that predicts who wins
• 1:37:38
  the MVP. Generally very accurate. And the way
• 1:37:41
  it works, it's like, it's like Pilgrim's process.
• 1:37:43
  It's like essentially you have to like suffer
• 1:37:45
  for the MVP and you also have to be perceived
• 1:37:48
  to be doing a lot. So it's the guy who has the
• 1:37:51
  largest percentage of counting stats for the,
• 1:37:53
  for the team that doesn't really have a secondary
• 1:37:55
  star that wins a lot of games. Right. And the
• 1:37:58
  Lakers don't have a secondary star. I think the
• 1:38:00
  Lakers have a good chance of getting a top four
• 1:38:02
  seed and Luca is going to have the majority of
• 1:38:05
  the counting stats for that team. So I do think
• 1:38:07
  Luca at like 450 for MVP. Is actually really
• 1:38:10
  fucking good because I think when I think when
• 1:38:12
  he's just not gonna play enough games I don't
• 1:38:13
  think they're I don't think San Antonio is gonna
• 1:38:15
  care enough to win enough games I think with
• 1:38:17
  the injury to the other guys and okay see then
• 1:38:20
  that leaves the window of look again if the Lakers
• 1:38:23
  can win Was the over on the ramblers? So the
• 1:38:28
  Lakers over under was I think the Lakers win
• 1:38:34
  52 games. I think Luka can win the MVP. What
• 1:38:37
  was your what was your prediction say? Tabor
• 1:38:40
  Wolves to win the northwest division. I'm writing
• 1:38:46
  it down. I like I like Luca plus 450. That is
• 1:38:49
  actually a good good fucking bet. It's crazy.
• 1:38:51
  I saw that this morning. I'm going to tweet that
• 1:38:54
  out. I'm going to say look at a plus 450 is a
• 1:38:56
  that is that is Luca being severely underpriced
• 1:38:59
  because again the logic being I don't think San
• 1:39:01
  Antonio is going to care enough about winning
• 1:39:02
  that many games. I think that like Shea hit the
• 1:39:07
  65 games Like the thing about that the other
• 1:39:11
  part is Shay would be winning what is third straight
• 1:39:13
  MVP, right? Not gonna happen So like to understand
• 1:39:16
  for winning the third straight MVP in the NBA
• 1:39:18
  You literally have to like raise the debt, right?
• 1:39:21
  Like you have to walk across water raise the
• 1:39:23
  dead and probably do one more miracle So they
• 1:39:26
  give you a third straight MVP Like it doesn't
• 1:39:29
  matter how good any they're just not gonna win
• 1:39:30
  enough. I don't think they're gonna win enough
• 1:39:32
  games You have to win 60 or over for them to
• 1:39:34
  like win that third entry MVP I'm more I think
• 1:39:37
  Luca at 450 God I'm talking myself into it Luca
• 1:39:40
  plus 450 all he has to do is win 52 games if
• 1:39:44
  the Lakers are the four seed The way this breaks
• 1:39:46
  down. I think Lucas should probably be the betting
• 1:39:49
  favorite for the NBA Telling you run Russell
• 1:39:51
  wilt and Larry Bird only people to ever win three
• 1:39:54
  straight MVPs Lebron couldn't do it joking couldn't
• 1:39:57
  do it right like as I said like you have to walk
• 1:39:59
  on water To get that third straight MVP and I
• 1:40:01
  don't think that's gonna happen Victor is a good
• 1:40:04
  candidate, but I don't think the Spurs are gonna
• 1:40:06
  win enough games to do it I have the Spurs. I
• 1:40:08
  think right now I have the Spurs winning I'm
• 1:40:13
  well, I've got a 43 and a half, but I think they're
• 1:40:15
  gonna do better than that. I'm gonna win like
• 1:40:16
  55 I don't know that they're gonna care enough
• 1:40:23
  to win that many games, right? So First the first
• 1:40:30
  open one too. I mean, it's like they did not
• 1:40:32
  open well granted they lost the I mean the loss
• 1:40:36
  of two best teams in the conference I think they
• 1:40:38
  lost the Rockets in the thunder. So I mean shit,
• 1:40:41
  right? Yeah, they beat the Mavericks lost the
• 1:40:42
  Rockets of the thunder, right? So, I mean that
• 1:40:45
  makes some sense and they'll be back Mean, I
• 1:40:48
  think the other part is dope like the other part
• 1:40:50
  of says I'll go with the teams. I don't I think
• 1:40:51
  Kade I think What was the MVP voting last year
• 1:40:56
  like I know it was a yoke. It's just one two
• 1:41:01
  Can't remember who third was so now I got it
• 1:41:04
  So that the other rule is generally you don't
• 1:41:06
  win unless you've top five before right? So I'll
• 1:41:10
  take on a ham did finish top five So top five
• 1:41:12
  last year was Shay Joe kick Victor when when
• 1:41:15
  yama don kick and Kate, right? So Kate could
• 1:41:19
  i mean i think the the two realistic candidates
• 1:41:22
  are kade and luca because again the way again
• 1:41:26
  logically in my brain i'm going like has to be
• 1:41:28
  a star has to be perceived to be doing way better
• 1:41:31
  than the with the moment stuff they were going
• 1:41:32
  to do has to not have a secondary star on theme
• 1:41:35
  and the two guys that really qualify right now
• 1:41:37
  are going to be kade and uh and uh luca now could
• 1:41:43
  durant get some love maybe but i don't think
• 1:41:46
  he's gonna get he's not going to be viewed as
• 1:41:48
  doing enough for that for that rocket steam so
• 1:41:51
  i really do like the luca i do think luca in
• 1:41:53
  the big market has everything kind of like going
• 1:41:55
  his way i think he's gonna want to push him so
• 1:41:58
  yeah i mean like i think luca is a good a great
• 1:42:01
  bit plus 450 how about you bj what's your uh
• 1:42:04
  what's your future prediction nfl nba wherever
• 1:42:08
  you want to go So you're saying Pistons to win
• 1:42:20
  the conference at plus 850. I like it Here's
• 1:42:24
  why I like it because I've said that they're
• 1:42:27
  gonna make the conference finals and again I've
• 1:42:29
  explained this before if you're holding Pistons
• 1:42:30
  plus 850 and to win these and they make the conference
• 1:42:34
  finals you are making money because let's say
• 1:42:37
  it doesn't matter because you're gonna get better
• 1:42:38
  like essentially you'll get something like the
• 1:42:40
  opposing team like even money so you can guarantee
• 1:42:44
  that you're not going to lose money on that bet
• 1:42:46
  right because you can Essentially like zero it
• 1:42:48
  out. Like if the Pistons are ever facing elimination,
• 1:42:51
  you basically take the other side to make sure
• 1:42:53
  you even out, right? So no, I really I do like
• 1:42:55
  the Pistons to make the conference finals So
• 1:42:57
  grabbing the Pistons plus 850 to win the conference
• 1:43:00
  is good money. I like it. Do you like them to
• 1:43:03
  win the title? Yeah, they're plus 20. They're
• 1:43:14
  plus 22 to win the title and I kind of agree.
• 1:43:17
  Yeah Yeah, but they're not that I think Think
• 1:43:26
  the thing with the Pistons, they would be able
• 1:43:28
  to like this has got their business got their
• 1:43:31
  worst possible my Matchup in the playoffs and
• 1:43:33
  that's kind of what happened to them last season
• 1:43:36
  So, I mean, I think they're actually a team that
• 1:43:41
  like they're a team that actually would have
• 1:43:43
  given New York fits and they gave New York fits
• 1:43:46
  in season which is kind of like so but like It's
• 1:43:49
  the season before in the playoffs too. Yeah,
• 1:43:51
  like and it's just like so The fact that like
• 1:43:55
  the Pistons like You know season wound up like
• 1:43:59
  they like, you know, so they ended up like losing
• 1:44:02
  in that second round series, uh Against the Cavaliers,
• 1:44:06
  right? But it was kind of another one for you
• 1:44:08
  Arturo. Uh cover, uh Alvarez and Billy happens
• 1:44:12
  on saturday in in riad Okay, i'm saying it happens
• 1:44:19
  You're saying it happens I'm saying is that a
• 1:44:22
  poly is that a poly market bet right now? I am
• 1:44:24
  not I'm not sure right now, but I just It's canelo
• 1:44:29
  right it's gonna be it's canelo. Let me let me
• 1:44:32
  like it dick. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh Yeah, we
• 1:45:09
  we sort of skipped over the Yeah, I could see
• 1:45:34
  Yeah It's an incredible run by the Billers, something
• 1:46:02
  we haven't seen like what you said in a century.
• 1:46:05
  So I'm happy that I'm seeing this kind of history,
• 1:46:08
  even though it's not my team's. But it's interesting
• 1:46:14
  baseball. Again, I'm just going to take this
• 1:46:20
  opportunity. This show brought to you by Polymarket.
• 1:46:24
  Anything is tradable. The future is now. Thank
• 1:46:29
  you guys for sponsoring us. Thank you guys for
• 1:46:31
  listening to us. Thank you guys at Chill Boys,
• 1:46:36
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• 1:46:39
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• 1:46:55
  off. Arturo. We're able to find if they had that
• 1:47:02
  on on one of the bets No, I mean they have the
• 1:47:05
  Canelo poly market They have a market on the
• 1:47:08
  win -loss and if you if the game gets postponed,
• 1:47:11
  it's gonna settle to 50 -50 So they don't have
• 1:47:14
  happen or don't happen as a as a bet, right?
• 1:47:19
  Yeah Canelo's is the favorite Canelo's being
• 1:47:22
  in 47 million And Ali's gonna get 3 million for
• 1:47:26
  the fight. That is not a good that is not a good
• 1:47:28
  split But you know, it is what it is. I wanna
• 1:47:33
  thank everybody here for coming on here for our
• 1:47:35
  first ever sponsored show. Seriously, guys, we're
• 1:47:39
  sponsored. We're sponsored by PolyMarket. Our
• 1:47:43
  sports show is sponsored by PolyMarket within
• 1:47:45
  the first six months of mine. By the way, the
• 1:47:47
  two ones I liked, I liked, it was Memphis over
• 1:47:52
  10 and a half seed and Memphis over 31 and a
• 1:47:55
  half, which I think were the ones I said, hey.
• 1:48:02
  Those are great picks, actually. But I want to
• 1:48:06
  say thank you, everybody, for coming here. Of
• 1:48:09
  course, you can follow Tay at TayKZ. That's T
• 1:48:13
  -A -Y -K -Z -Y on YouTube. He does great NBA
• 1:48:17
  videos. Right now, he's doing a lot on the current
• 1:48:20
  boss show for Sumo. I'm excited that they announced
• 1:48:24
  the second season of that Sumo show that's on
• 1:48:27
  Netflix. It's right on the top of my head. I
• 1:48:30
  forgot the name of it, but hey, man I know you're
• 1:48:33
  excited about the upcoming bashful. Oh, yeah.
• 1:48:35
  Yeah right around the corner Be a fun November
• 1:48:39
  with with NBA NFL and and sumo all -in -one.
• 1:48:43
  Yeah, buddy Arturo, of course, you can follow
• 1:48:47
  him at American numbers on Twitter But man, if
• 1:48:52
  you heard all of these statistics, you heard
• 1:48:54
  all of these things rattled off from the dome
• 1:48:57
  is because Arturo, he works for something called,
• 1:49:00
  he works on something called payyourdata .com,
• 1:49:03
  where they have AI models for whatever sports
• 1:49:06
  you follow to use on sites such as Polymarket,
• 1:49:11
  you know. But Arturo, you know, it's your time
• 1:49:15
  to promote and like, let's talk about it. No,
• 1:49:17
  I mean, like just, you can follow me on X. AmericanNumbers
• 1:49:21
  .com, American Numbers, and you can kind of like,
• 1:49:24
  as I like, you follow me on pay dirt, you can
• 1:49:26
  get like the different models, and you can just
• 1:49:30
  like listen to them this year. And thank you
• 1:49:32
  guys for coming in. Hopefully we'll give you
• 1:49:35
  some good knowledge and get you on the right
• 1:49:38
  track. Yeah. Also, BJ Bethel, one of my favorite
• 1:49:42
  journalists, one of my favorite writers, one
• 1:49:44
  of the best bass, he spent so much time on the
• 1:49:47
  sports beat in Ohio. This is why I love bringing
• 1:49:51
  him to talk sports because he we can just put
• 1:49:52
  him on and talk anything But I specifically love
• 1:49:55
  talking sports BJ you can follow him at BJ Bethel
• 1:49:59
  tweets on Twitter. You could You should subscribe
• 1:50:03
  to his sub stack. That's be Bethel sub stack
• 1:50:07
  calm BJ man always and always a pleasure to have
• 1:50:11
  you on buddy. Yeah. Yeah Yeah Always a pleasure
• 1:50:22
  to have all these guys here. This is our starting
• 1:50:24
  lineup here And of course, you know, you should
• 1:50:28
  follow us listen to the show leave a review Like
• 1:50:31
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• 1:50:33
  is available wherever you want to listen to it
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• 1:50:40
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• 1:50:46
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• 1:50:48
  music So, you know, give us a rate, rate us,
• 1:50:52
  like us, follow us, subscribe, do what you can,
• 1:50:55
  because this is a movement, this is a real grassroots
• 1:50:57
  movement. And as I say on every show, see you
• 1:51:03
  next time. I'm Optimus Prime, and I send this
• 1:51:54
  message to any intelligent being. We are here.
• 1:51:59
  We are listening. See you next time.