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The Muster- Phil Duncan: Weather Watch · The Muster on Hokonui

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the muster. It is time to catch
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: up with Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch. Good afternoon, Phil.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: Good afternoon, Andy.
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: Right, it's been wet down here in the south.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: I think the only thing we've been missing in the
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: forecast is Sharknado, which is basically a tornado with great
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: white sharks falling out of it.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: What have we got for the next seven days, mate?
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: Is there any respite?
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we don't actually have a weather emoji for sharks
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: falling out of the sky. But we've got some cold
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: weather coming back in again. What's happening at the moment
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: is we're on the edge of a lot of weather.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: What I mean by that is we're on the edge
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: of big highs and we're on the edge of big lows.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: The storms down around the Southern Ocean at the moment
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: are exceptional. And I don't use the word exceptional very much.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: But these are exceptional storms. To give you an example,
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: the storm that is tracking past, well, to the south
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: of us, but tracking past over today and tomorrow, has
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: central air pressure of down around about 945 hectopascals, very low.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: But the one on Monday is going to be 920 hectopascals.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: So if you don't understand what that is, that's like
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: equivalent to some of the biggest hurricanes ever recorded on
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: the planet. So these are wild storms. But they are
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: centered down over the Southern Ocean, hugging the edge of Antarctica.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: So they're a good distance away from us. They're about
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: as far away from Gore as Melbourne is from you.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: So it's a decent area away from us. But it's
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: driving this windy weather. And so next week, high pressure
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: from Australia. And they're also really powerful at the moment.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: That high is going to try to move into New Zealand,
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: coupled with this big storm down near Antarctica. And the
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: two combined dredge up some very cold air. So we're
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: back to winter weather next week in many places. But
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: the funny weird catch is that I think parts of
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: the North Island are going to be colder than Southland.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: So that's my little silver lining to make you feel better,
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: that we're going to be seeing the North Island shivering
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: through a colder week than probably you guys will. So, yeah,
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: it's kind of like a late winter, early spring pattern
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: for the next 10 days.
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: As far as rainfall, what are we seeing?
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: So we do have some wet weather coming through still.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: Unfortunately for Southland, you're actually leaning wetter than almost any
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: other region, with the exception of South Westland and Fiordland.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: Rainfall's not through the roof, but we are seeing rainfall numbers,
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: northern Southland, sort of around the 30 millimetre mark, maybe
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: 40 millimetres over the next seven days. And further south,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: getting down towards Bluff and Invercargill and out towards the
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Catlins and Stewart Island, all of those areas are sort
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: of in the 50, maybe 60 millimetre mark. So there
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: is still a fair bit of rain to come on through,
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: which is not great when you've got some of that
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: colder air mixing with it.
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: Windchill, what have we got?
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: Well, the windchill is going to be off and on.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: We've got, like I was saying this, I wasn't sure
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: if it was you or someone else last week that
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: At this time of the year, we tend to get
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: at least one or maybe two warm days a week
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: in the lower half of the South Island. So not
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: all cold and bleak. Monday's got a maximum of 17 degrees. Tomorrow,
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: 14 degrees. And later next weekend, 15 degrees. But there
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: are a number of days in between with highs of
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: only around nine. And so we will see that wind
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: chill dropping to lower levels at times. In fact, the
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: wind chill around Sunday might be pretty low, down around...
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: you know, maximum of kind of five degrees at the
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: warmest part of the day. And then next week we
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: could be seeing wind chill dipping below zero at night
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: in particular. So, yeah, we do have some cold weather.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: So newborn lambs, again, not a very good week, but
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: there are some sort of positive areas, like I say,
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: some warm days in the mix. And the rain is
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: not nonstop all the time. But between the wind, the
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: rain and the cold, If you've got newborn animals, this
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: is going to be another tough week ahead at times.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: For the remainder of September then, give us a bit
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: of grace. What have we got?
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: Well, we do have high pressure trying to get towards
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: New Zealand later next week. So we've got that to
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: kind of be positive about. We've got two highs, in fact.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: By the end of next week, there'll be a high
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: just to the north of New Zealand and another one
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: down around you. So that's what we're seeing. After that,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: probably some more high pressure. There are some storms forming
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: south of Australia as we go into the final days
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: of September. They don't always reach Southland, but it does
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: show that the weather pattern south of Australia, south of
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: New Zealand, is pretty wild this year. We're not necessarily
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: getting slammed by a lot of the severe weather, but
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: we are seeing changeable conditions. But I'm also saying that
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: we could be, in some areas, starting to see a
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: bit of a drying out phase kicking in. But Not
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: just yet. I think September's a pretty stormy month or
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: unsettled month. October, that's where we'll be trying to see
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: if we can settle things down. But also, traditionally, October
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: can be a pretty wild month.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Realistically, when can we start seeing a bit of drying
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: weather so we can get the saturation out of the ground?
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a harder one to answer. But I am seeing,
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: from a rain point of view, over the next 10 days,
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: there is sort of a risk of showers quite often.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: But as far as rainfall totals each day are concerned...
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: We are sort of seeing that tapering off a little bit.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: So Saturday, Saturday night, maybe 11 millimetres. Tuesday, Monday and Tuesday,
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: probably another 15 over those days, 15 millimetres. And then
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: sort of the rest of next week, you're sort of
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: only seeing numbers of like two millimetres, three millimetres. which
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: is just really a few showers moving through. So it's showery,
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: but hopefully not too bitterly cold. But I do think
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: probably the best word to describe the next 10 days
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: is wintry.
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: The good news is no Sharknado.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: No Sharknado, no. You're free from that. So there's one
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: thing that I can be– actually, I won't say 100% confident.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: I'll say 99% because you never know what a water
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: spout can suck up.
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: Isn't it? Hey, good on you, Phil. Thanks for your
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: time as always.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: No worries, mate. Have a great weekend.