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What Mojtaba Khamenei's warning means for the US · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: Iran's new Supreme leader has vowed revenge for the killing
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  Speaker 1: of his father, much Tabahamine, who succeeded Ali Jamine, after
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  Speaker 1: he was killed in US. Israeli strikes published a statement saying,
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  Speaker 1: we pledged to avenge the blood of the mattered leader
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  Speaker 1: and all the matters of these two wars from the
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  Speaker 1: criminal and disgraced killers. This vengeance is the demand of
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  Speaker 1: our nation and must certainly be fulfilled now. That message
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  Speaker 1: came after days of funeral ceremonies for Ali Hamine, events
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  Speaker 1: that were marked by calls for retaliation two and explicit
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  Speaker 1: threats against the US and Israel, and US President Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump personally. That was followed by a response from the
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  Speaker 1: US President on truth Social that Trump warned Iran against
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  Speaker 1: any attempt to assassinate him. He said, and I quote,
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  Speaker 1: one thousand missiles are locked and loaded and aimed at
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  Speaker 1: the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to
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  Speaker 1: immediately follow show the Indian government act on its threat
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  Speaker 1: pronounced in many corners of the globe, to assassinate or
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  Speaker 1: attempt to assassinate, the certain President of the United States
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  Speaker 1: of America in this case me right, So, how seriously
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  Speaker 1: should we take these threats. Let's bring in Cameron Martin,
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  Speaker 1: an Iran analyst and associate professor of International relations at
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  Speaker 1: the University of Sussex. Hello, and welcome to the program.
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  Speaker 1: Say so much of our Hamine says vengeance is the
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  Speaker 1: demand of the nation and must be fulfilled. Should we
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  Speaker 1: read this as a threat of immediate retaliation or you know,
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  Speaker 1: as a longer term ideological commitment.
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  Speaker 2: Do you think, well, hello, good afternoon. Yes. I think
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  Speaker 2: it doesn't say this has to be immediately carried out.
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  Speaker 2: I think we can actually compare this announcement or this
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  Speaker 2: call by much about harmony with what Iola Romanian in
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  Speaker 2: the nineteen eighties said about Salmon Rushti's Tanic Versus book.
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  Speaker 2: If you remember at the time, it caused a lot
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  Speaker 2: of controversy. Romain issued a fatwah for his killing, which
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  Speaker 2: led to, you know, deterioration of diplomatic relations between Iran
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  Speaker 2: and many Western countries. But eventually this was solved by
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  Speaker 2: Iran declaring that they wouldn't send someone specifically to do so,
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  Speaker 2: but other Muslims might carry out this fatoair. I think
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  Speaker 2: in this case, harmonies, the wording is such that it
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  Speaker 2: doesn't say we will carry this out. It says, even
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  Speaker 2: if I am not alive or Uranian leaders are not alliwed,
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  Speaker 2: it must be carried out. And then it says that
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  Speaker 2: any any free person across the world Muslims are obligated.
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  Speaker 2: Whoever can is obliged to do so. So there is
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  Speaker 2: a degree of vagueness and the kind of long term framework,
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  Speaker 2: but it is still very strongly worded and definitely complicates
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  Speaker 2: the ongoing talks bit in US.
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  Speaker 1: And Iran, right, I mean, let's have a bit on
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  Speaker 1: the point. It just mad because yes, he suggests revenge
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  Speaker 1: does not depend on him or any current official. Does
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  Speaker 1: that somehow open the door you think for proxyaes affiliated
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  Speaker 1: groups or individuals to act over time?
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  Speaker 2: Absolutely, I mean Iran historically has used its various proxies
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  Speaker 2: Shia groups who are not necessarily Iranians. Hezbola historically has
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  Speaker 2: carried out assassinations. I mean specifically in Germany in nineties
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  Speaker 2: they carried out on the heast of Iran, killing you know,
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  Speaker 2: Kurdish opposition leaders of Iranian origin and so on. So
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  Speaker 2: there is a history of Iran using proxies for these matters.
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  Speaker 2: In recent times, there were non Iranians arrested on US
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  Speaker 2: soil who had planned to abduct or kill some Iranian
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  Speaker 2: opposition figures and so on and so forth. So this
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  Speaker 2: is quite possible and judging, but by how Trump spoke
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  Speaker 2: in NATO sammit and Ankar and several times mentioned Iran's
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  Speaker 2: attempt or plans to kill him and how this clearly
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  Speaker 2: had angered him, and he has you know, issued that
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  Speaker 2: that post you you just read, it clearly makes things
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  Speaker 2: much more difficult because irrespective of how much this is
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  Speaker 2: for domestic consumption in Iran, Trump and US are likely
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  Speaker 2: to read this or take this quite seriously, and that
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  Speaker 2: would affect their their position, their posture in the in
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  Speaker 2: the talks, or dealing.
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  Speaker 1: With your own right. I mean, both sides are now
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  Speaker 1: using that maximalist language. Ran speaks of sacred revenge, Trump
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  Speaker 1: of overwhelming distraction. I mean, I want to what you
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  Speaker 1: make of that. Does that mean diplomacy is effectively off
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  Speaker 1: the table or are these messages Mini aimed that as
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  Speaker 1: you try to allude to domestic audiences, it's just it's
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  Speaker 1: just rhetoric.
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  Speaker 2: Well not quite, but I mean it's quite remarkable that
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  Speaker 2: as we discuss this matter, Basar actually runs Foreign Minister
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  Speaker 2: is an amine in fact talking to Katari officials, and
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  Speaker 2: there are reports that American officials are also involved. In fact,
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  Speaker 2: men you know names of jade Vans and you know
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  Speaker 2: whit Coffe and Kushner is mentioned. So this means that actually,
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  Speaker 2: despite all this harsh discourse, both sides still talk and
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  Speaker 2: they do not necessarily I mean from your Ownian perspective,
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  Speaker 2: at least, I think they do not necessarily see these
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  Speaker 2: talks with the revenge as mutually exclusive. They could try
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  Speaker 2: to reach an arrangement such that Iran can export oil
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  Speaker 2: and you know, gain cash to deal with its disasterully
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  Speaker 2: a disastrous economic situation. And yet that long term revenge
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  Speaker 2: or the promise to revenge is is going to be
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  Speaker 2: basically you know, pursued at some point if they can.
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  Speaker 1: Right, So, the elephants in the room or not in
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  Speaker 1: the room in this case is much tabajam A. He's
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  Speaker 1: speaking out but only through text. How significant is it
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  Speaker 1: that Iran's new supreme leader still has not appeared in public.
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  Speaker 2: I think it's quite significant, and the significance increasing by
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  Speaker 2: the day, because for a weeks, for a few weeks
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  Speaker 2: or a few months, it might be justified in terms
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  Speaker 2: of the injuries he has suffered, or security concerns and
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  Speaker 2: so on. But given the political structure of Iran, in
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  Speaker 2: which Supreme Leader has basically supreme power as the name,
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  Speaker 2: as the title suggests, his continued absence will create problems,
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  Speaker 2: especially in terms of internal unity of the of the
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  Speaker 2: Iranian state and government, of government officials and so on.
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  Speaker 2: And ordinary people also would want to especially those loyal
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  Speaker 2: to the Islamic Republic, would want to see see the
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  Speaker 2: new leader. So I think the Islamic Republic or the
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  Speaker 2: current leaders might encounter difficulties by maintaining this complete absence,
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  Speaker 2: not even audio recording, because one could understand why he
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  Speaker 2: may not appear in public because of the facial injuries,
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  Speaker 2: but he could at least issue a recorded message for
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  Speaker 2: people could hear his voice. But we don't have that either,
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  Speaker 2: So it's becoming an issue actually for many Iranians.
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  Speaker 1: Right right, We'll have to wait and see how things go.
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  Speaker 1: Cameraan Martin, thank you very much for sharing your insights
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  Speaker 1: with us.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you very much,