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MLB Divisional + WNBA Finals + NHL Opening Day Best Bets Tuesday 10/7/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:00
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
0:05
Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
0:08
Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
0:11
Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
0:14
Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
0:17
Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
0:20
Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
0:24
Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
0:28
Speaker 1: that have not had a good season, Man with wookends
0:33
Speaker 1: slump that I'm on. The slump continues. I've reached a
0:37
Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins hat man,
0:42
Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
0:44
Speaker 1: March eight? Is that what it is? I don't even
0:47
Speaker 1: know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
0:51
Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. I don't even
0:53
Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
0:57
Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
1:00
Speaker 1: as I always am until I die, at least oh
1:04
Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well
1:07
Speaker 1: for me. Own five the worst month that I've ever
1:11
Speaker 1: had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't know
1:13
Speaker 1: what to even tell you about this anymore. To the
1:15
Speaker 1: slump yesterdays, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
1:21
Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
1:24
Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
1:32
Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, it's towed back with you? Better off dead? Tuesday,
1:36
Speaker 1: October seventh, It was a winning day yesterday barely. We
1:41
Speaker 1: did lose the baseball play on the Chicago Cubs, even
1:44
Speaker 1: though they scored three runs in the first inning. So
1:47
Speaker 1: top of the first inning, they're already have three nothing.
1:49
Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, Managa should be able to hold that
1:51
Speaker 1: for most of the time that he's in there. No,
1:54
Speaker 1: he gives up three runs immediately. And then the Cubs,
1:57
Speaker 1: by the way, never scored again, and Milwaukee was very efficient,
2:01
Speaker 1: was scoring the base runners that they got, and they
2:03
Speaker 1: wound up winning the game I think seven to three.
2:06
Speaker 1: I think was the finals something like that. Just pretty annoying,
2:09
Speaker 1: to be honest. It was the wrong side whatever it
2:12
Speaker 1: looked like it was the right side right out of
2:14
Speaker 1: the gate, and no, no it was not. And then
2:19
Speaker 1: I do think we got lucky. Jeffrey, what's up? Man,
2:21
Speaker 1: I think you and I both got lucky on the
2:24
Speaker 1: Jaguars play, to be honest, because Kansas City, I'm pretty
2:26
Speaker 1: sure outgained them in the game. Kansas City was up
2:29
Speaker 1: fourteen to nothing in the game, Jags did tie it.
2:33
Speaker 1: I believe before halftime they had tied it, and then
2:38
Speaker 1: the way the Jaguars took the lead was a ninety
2:41
Speaker 1: nine yard kick return to touchdown, So I mean that's
2:45
Speaker 1: something that's a little bit fluky for sure. And they
2:48
Speaker 1: did have the lead for pretty much the rest of
2:50
Speaker 1: the game until it looked like we were gonna get
2:55
Speaker 1: you know, one of those I don't want to say
2:56
Speaker 1: bad luck, because I I think we were getting a
2:59
Speaker 1: little bit lucky with Jags having the lead at the
3:01
Speaker 1: end of that game, But at that point they did
3:02
Speaker 1: have the lead, like right near the end of the
3:05
Speaker 1: game at Kansas City. Of course, did what they do
3:07
Speaker 1: and they got a touchdown drive really late in the game,
3:10
Speaker 1: which gives me some more fantasy points because I have
3:13
Speaker 1: my homes on my team, but didn't need it because
3:16
Speaker 1: I was gonna win anyway. I was like, oh my god,
3:19
Speaker 1: Kansas City is gonna win by four, and then we're
3:21
Speaker 1: gonna lose by a half point like that, that was
3:25
Speaker 1: gonna be a brutal, brutal loser. But no, Jacksonville was
3:29
Speaker 1: able to drive down the field. They put together a
3:32
Speaker 1: good game winning drive. Man, I think they deserve to
3:34
Speaker 1: get the touchdown there on that drive. They didn't have
3:36
Speaker 1: a whole lot of time to do it, Lawrence was
3:38
Speaker 1: able to do. It got interesting near the end because
3:42
Speaker 1: Jacksonville placed themselves in kind of an unlucky field position
3:46
Speaker 1: because they had first and ten at like the thirteen
3:50
Speaker 1: yard line or maybe or somewhere between, like the eleven
3:53
Speaker 1: and the thirteen, maybe something like that, And that is
3:55
Speaker 1: not what you want. You don't want like the first
3:57
Speaker 1: down marker to be right before where the end zone is.
4:00
Speaker 1: That's like the most difficult setup to actually get a
4:03
Speaker 1: touchdown when you have that type of setup, because you
4:06
Speaker 1: can't really like, you can't get a first down without
4:09
Speaker 1: getting a touchdown at that point basically, So it's I
4:12
Speaker 1: don't like that setup. Kansas City committed blatant pass interference
4:16
Speaker 1: on one of the first couple of downs, and it
4:19
Speaker 1: wasn't called, and the defender was all over the receiver
4:23
Speaker 1: for the entire play. He didn't even let him go. No,
4:25
Speaker 1: we're just gonna let that happen. Then it came down
4:28
Speaker 1: to whatever. It was a third down play, and then
4:30
Speaker 1: they call pass interference on Kansas City, which was also
4:34
Speaker 1: the correct call, but it wasn't as blatant as the
4:35
Speaker 1: other one. And the one that got called the receiver
4:39
Speaker 1: was basically face I mean the defender was face guarding
4:42
Speaker 1: and he had his back to the to the ball
4:45
Speaker 1: and made contacts, so that was still pass interference. The
4:48
Speaker 1: other one was more blatant or I guess the other
4:50
Speaker 1: one could have been called defensive holding to me because
4:53
Speaker 1: the guy never let him go. But whatever, and then
4:55
Speaker 1: everybody's gonna flip out about that call. And then it
4:57
Speaker 1: still took a ridiculous play Trevor Lawrence to get the
5:02
Speaker 1: game when he touched down there, which was the if
5:05
Speaker 1: you know the stumblebum play that Ben Johnson ran with
5:10
Speaker 1: Jared Goff that one time against the Bears, where when
5:14
Speaker 1: Ben Johnson was on was the OC for Detroit. Still
5:18
Speaker 1: it was a fake fall by Jared Goff where he
5:22
Speaker 1: fakes following but doesn't actually fall down. All the people
5:27
Speaker 1: on the offense start yelling fumble, so the defense thinks
5:29
Speaker 1: is a fumble, one of the receivers gets open and
5:33
Speaker 1: they throw it to him for a long game or
5:35
Speaker 1: in that case it was a touchdown. Ben Johnson actually
5:39
Speaker 1: tried that with the Bears by the way and failed
5:42
Speaker 1: with Caleb Williams kileb Williams can't do the stumble bum.
5:46
Speaker 1: And then in the case of the Jaguars, though just hilarious,
5:51
Speaker 1: man Trevor Lawrence legitimately fell down on the play and
5:53
Speaker 1: he was never touched. So he got back up after
5:56
Speaker 1: he kind of fell again, got back up, nobody touched him,
6:00
Speaker 1: and then I was like, I was watching the play,
6:02
Speaker 1: I'm like, this is insane. Like at first I thought
6:05
Speaker 1: we were absolutely fucked because they didn't have any time
6:07
Speaker 1: outs left, so they were gonna probably have time to
6:10
Speaker 1: clock it and like maybe run one more play after
6:13
Speaker 1: like a three yard loss, if that's what was gonna happen.
6:15
Speaker 1: But he got back up and I'm looking him like
6:17
Speaker 1: he wasn't touched. He could he could do something with it.
6:20
Speaker 1: And then I see the field was like open in
6:22
Speaker 1: front of him, like, holy shit, he could run this
6:24
Speaker 1: in for a touchdown. And that's exactly what happened. One
6:28
Speaker 1: defender wasn't able to get him. There was one defender
6:30
Speaker 1: it was like a little bit behind him, and he
6:32
Speaker 1: got in for the touchdown. I'm like, holy shit, man,
6:35
Speaker 1: that was a crazy game, a couple of crazy games
6:37
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Men, I don't know. I mean that
6:40
Speaker 1: was I think we got lucky on that one. Oh wait,
6:45
Speaker 1: you took the Jags minus three and a half. Really,
6:48
Speaker 1: I didn't know that. In the screenshot, I thought you
6:49
Speaker 1: took plus plus three and a half at minus one eighteen.
6:53
Speaker 1: I thought this is what it was because you showed
6:54
Speaker 1: me like the live odds, But I thought your bet
6:56
Speaker 1: was like towards the bottom of the screen shot. Am
6:58
Speaker 1: I wrong about that? Jags minus three and a half
7:03
Speaker 1: did not. That would not have been a winner because
7:06
Speaker 1: they won by three. But yeah, they were the three
7:10
Speaker 1: and a half five point underdog on the the actual
7:12
Speaker 1: game line. You must have laid a Did you lay
7:14
Speaker 1: a live price on minus three and a half? Definitely
7:18
Speaker 1: would not have done that live betting probably would have
7:23
Speaker 1: been Kansas City at some point during the game or
7:25
Speaker 1: past the game. Yeah, the NFL was just kind of crazy.
7:29
Speaker 1: There are a couple of crazy results in the NFL. Man.
7:31
Speaker 1: Of course, everybody talking about Arizona, which I didn't talk
7:34
Speaker 1: about yesterday. They lost to the Titans. If you had
7:37
Speaker 1: Arizona and Survivor and that's the way you lost the Survivor,
7:41
Speaker 1: that that is something, man. I probably would have been
7:44
Speaker 1: on them too, but I had already used them in
7:46
Speaker 1: Week two against Carolina and they almost blew that game.
7:49
Speaker 1: This Arizona team is bad, dude, They're bad. They still
7:52
Speaker 1: should have won the game though. I mean, you guys
7:54
Speaker 1: saw what happened. They were up twenty one to six,
7:56
Speaker 1: I think in the fourth quarter. And then demark who's
8:00
Speaker 1: one of their running backs because James Connor, who was
8:04
Speaker 1: one of my fantasy draft picks, hurt like two weeks
8:09
Speaker 1: into the season. So isn't that just great? They have
8:11
Speaker 1: a Demarcato is like one of their two running backs.
8:14
Speaker 1: He had this huge run. He was gonna get a touchdown,
8:17
Speaker 1: and just like Mitchell I think is his name on
8:20
Speaker 1: the Colts the previous week. Really pissed me off on
8:23
Speaker 1: that one, Demarcado did the same thing and he lost
8:26
Speaker 1: the ball celebrating too early going into the end zone.
8:29
Speaker 1: It wound up being a touchback loss of possession. Arizona
8:33
Speaker 1: was gonna go up twenty eight to six with that touchdown,
8:35
Speaker 1: assuming they got the extra point. They never scored again
8:39
Speaker 1: after that, and Titans clawed their way all the way
8:42
Speaker 1: back and wound up winning the game on a game
8:44
Speaker 1: winning was it a field goal or touchdown than won,
8:47
Speaker 1: but I don't know whatever it was they want up
8:49
Speaker 1: winning the game by one in the end. Just absolutely ridiculous, man,
8:54
Speaker 1: almost seems like it's rigged. It's some of this stuff
8:57
Speaker 1: is just crazy, dude. I don't know what else to
8:58
Speaker 1: say about it. But the books wanted that to happen,
9:02
Speaker 1: basically because you know that Arizona was like a money
9:05
Speaker 1: line parlay piece for a lot of the recreational betters.
9:07
Speaker 1: You know that they were a teaser play for some
9:10
Speaker 1: of the recreational betters too, So Tennessee winning that game
9:13
Speaker 1: outright wiped those out. So the books definitely. That definitely
9:18
Speaker 1: helped out the books. That's all I'll say with that
9:21
Speaker 1: result there. I did pick Tennessee against the spread in
9:24
Speaker 1: my I Pick Them league, so I got that one right.
9:27
Speaker 1: But just in the ESPN one where you have to
9:30
Speaker 1: pick every single game, where by the way, I think
9:31
Speaker 1: I'm like twelve above five hundred right now, picking every game,
9:35
Speaker 1: So that's not too bad at all. Doing all right
9:39
Speaker 1: over there. Not doing as well with my pick five
9:42
Speaker 1: money entry, though you have to pick five specific picks
9:44
Speaker 1: every week. I was three and two this week because
9:47
Speaker 1: Jacksonville got me the third one. There, Stacks, what's up man,
9:50
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Let's get into today's stuff. Thought.
9:52
Speaker 1: I don't know, was there anything else I was going
9:53
Speaker 1: to talk about with the NFL. I mean, the Patriots
9:56
Speaker 1: of course, got that crazy upset win. We're gonna we're
10:00
Speaker 1: gonna talk about more of it when we get to
10:02
Speaker 1: the NFL show this week. But I do have some
10:05
Speaker 1: ideas already, and I will say in college football, probably
10:10
Speaker 1: gonna have Missouri as one of my plays. I'm gonna
10:12
Speaker 1: tell you that now, because I think that line is
10:15
Speaker 1: dropping quickly and I don't know if you're gonna be
10:16
Speaker 1: able to get it back like you want to get
10:18
Speaker 1: plus three or three and a half if you play Missouri.
10:21
Speaker 1: So that is likely to be one of my plays.
10:23
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna have to make sure that I, like,
10:26
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give it out now, so that I could
10:28
Speaker 1: give it out at the better line if the better line,
10:31
Speaker 1: you know, is gonna go away in the future, which
10:33
Speaker 1: it might, but we might still get it by the
10:35
Speaker 1: time it comes to Saturday. I don't know, because the
10:37
Speaker 1: public will be on Alabama. I know that's gonna be
10:39
Speaker 1: a fate of Alabama, which seems difficult to do. But
10:42
Speaker 1: I haven't looked at all the the college football yet.
10:46
Speaker 1: Let's get into it today. Man, it's already been ten
10:48
Speaker 1: minutes here. We don't have too many games to discuss.
10:51
Speaker 1: I only have one play today, so you guys are
10:53
Speaker 1: gonna not love it. But yesterday was a slight win.
10:57
Speaker 1: By the way, I should have mentioned that real quick,
10:58
Speaker 1: because we got the h the Cubs was an underdog play,
11:02
Speaker 1: so that that alone made it a slight win just
11:06
Speaker 1: because Jacksonville got the win, but because I always recommend
11:08
Speaker 1: putting a bit on the money line. If you got that,
11:11
Speaker 1: like a little bit of extra money line win on
11:14
Speaker 1: Jacksonville there, then you definitely had a slight win yesterday.
11:19
Speaker 1: Today I have one play. It's gonna be in the WNBA.
11:22
Speaker 1: I know I'm not gonna give out a play on
11:24
Speaker 1: either baseball game or any of the NHL today. I
11:26
Speaker 1: just don't I'm not seeing it. A couple of the
11:29
Speaker 1: NHL games are just massive favorites, like kind of mismatches,
11:33
Speaker 1: so I don't love it. One of them is definitely
11:36
Speaker 1: a mismatch. But I will give out a play in
11:39
Speaker 1: the WNBA. We'll talk about a quick here. This is
11:41
Speaker 1: my only play today. So is it the best bet segment?
11:44
Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll put it out there anyway. Why
11:47
Speaker 1: not best bets At the beginning of the show, we're
11:51
Speaker 1: gonna lay the three and a half with Phoenix. It
11:53
Speaker 1: is up to four now. I mean, it's getting a
11:56
Speaker 1: little bit crazy. It wasn't one and a half and
11:59
Speaker 1: now it's all the way up to four. I wish
12:00
Speaker 1: we got on this earlier because this line just skyrocketed quickly.
12:05
Speaker 1: But I think if Phoenix is gonna show up and
12:07
Speaker 1: play a good game, at a complete game, it's gonna
12:10
Speaker 1: be in this spot. This is an angle that we
12:11
Speaker 1: use in the NBA a lot. We have fifty two
12:14
Speaker 1: percent to taket sixty three percent of the cash on Phoenix,
12:17
Speaker 1: so the money is coming in on Phoenix. Phoenix is
12:19
Speaker 1: definitely a good home team and that's where they are here.
12:23
Speaker 1: It's not a huge travel spot for either team, as
12:25
Speaker 1: the final just happens to be between Las Vegas and Phoenix.
12:29
Speaker 1: Phoenix was fifteen and seven at home, though Vegas only
12:32
Speaker 1: thirteen to nine on the road, so Phoenix does have
12:35
Speaker 1: a decent home advantage here, even though I know Vegas
12:39
Speaker 1: was like a three point home favor If Phoenix being
12:42
Speaker 1: three and a half at home seems like the line
12:45
Speaker 1: has moved a bit much. Probably would be better to
12:49
Speaker 1: get them at a round like two. Would make a
12:51
Speaker 1: lot more sense here because you don't get a lot
12:53
Speaker 1: of home court advantage in the WNBA. But they're facing eliminations.
12:58
Speaker 1: You are paying for it, but I think that you're
13:00
Speaker 1: gonna get a complete effort from them this time. Man,
13:03
Speaker 1: Phoenix is down two, so this is their elimination game,
13:05
Speaker 1: and I know it means pressure is on them. You'd
13:07
Speaker 1: rather have them basically just to win the game or
13:10
Speaker 1: as an underdog, but I think this is where they
13:12
Speaker 1: show up teams like in the in the NBA, when
13:15
Speaker 1: teams are down two, when they come back home, usually
13:17
Speaker 1: you get their best effort in that game. Game three.
13:21
Speaker 1: Usually the two team gives you like a complete effort.
13:24
Speaker 1: I think that's what we're gonna get here. Uh. The
13:26
Speaker 1: Aces won the first game pretty close, and then game
13:29
Speaker 1: two won in an absolute blowout. And of course the
13:32
Speaker 1: Aces are way better at home and Phoenix is not
13:34
Speaker 1: as good on the road, so that was playing into
13:37
Speaker 1: I think some of this as well. Vegas is still
13:39
Speaker 1: the better team in my opinion, even though the osmakers
13:41
Speaker 1: are kind of telling you that's not even the case.
13:43
Speaker 1: I still think they are. But the one thing that
13:46
Speaker 1: really stands out about this game is that Phoenix had
13:49
Speaker 1: a bad shooting game. They were forty point eight percent
13:52
Speaker 1: from the field versus Vegas forty nine point three. So
13:55
Speaker 1: there was a bit of an outlier discrepancy there in
13:58
Speaker 1: the field goal percentage, but the three point percent and
14:00
Speaker 1: it's a real outlier seventeen point nine percent for Phoenix.
14:04
Speaker 1: So I don't think they're gonna shoot that poor league,
14:06
Speaker 1: and I think they'll do better this time. Vegas actually
14:10
Speaker 1: lost the turnover battle in that game, still won the
14:12
Speaker 1: game at home. Don't know if they're gonna win the
14:15
Speaker 1: turnover battle. I mean, they might lose the turnover battle again,
14:19
Speaker 1: I should say, because usually the home team does win
14:22
Speaker 1: the turnover battle and the whole team sometimes get some calls.
14:25
Speaker 1: Maybe you know, there might be if the league wants
14:28
Speaker 1: to try to extend this series. The league might give
14:30
Speaker 1: Phoenix some calls as well, but that's basically a handicap, man.
14:33
Speaker 1: I think it's a zig zag Phoenix with more probably
14:38
Speaker 1: with more I mean, definitely with more desperation here. But
14:40
Speaker 1: you're gonna see them probably playing with more urgency here.
14:44
Speaker 1: They're gonna be the team and has the adjustments to
14:45
Speaker 1: make after what happened in the previous games. So Phoenix
14:48
Speaker 1: will be the side. And that one and my only
14:51
Speaker 1: play of the day. All right, let's go to the
14:54
Speaker 1: breakdown segment here. I might break down, I don't know.
14:58
Speaker 1: We got two major league based games. They're both in
15:01
Speaker 1: the American League. The afternoon game is gonna be Seattle
15:05
Speaker 1: at Detroit. As we shift venues here, this series is
15:07
Speaker 1: tied one to one. Seattle, remember, is not as good
15:11
Speaker 1: on the road. Seattle actually below five hundred on the road,
15:15
Speaker 1: thirty nine and forty two on the road. Detroit pretty
15:17
Speaker 1: solid at home forty six and thirty five at home.
15:20
Speaker 1: So something to keep in mind there there is there
15:22
Speaker 1: are definitely some home field advantages in baseball this year. Man.
15:27
Speaker 1: Both these teams have good bullpens, but Seattle's is the
15:30
Speaker 1: better bullpen. They both have good offenses, but Seattle's is
15:34
Speaker 1: the better offense as well, so I do think Seattle
15:36
Speaker 1: has some advantages. They're the better team, and Seattle's actually
15:39
Speaker 1: being lined as a favorite here, which might be going
15:43
Speaker 1: a little bit too far. I mean, see Seattle is
15:45
Speaker 1: this much of a favorite on the road, I don't
15:48
Speaker 1: know if I buy it. I mean, I'm not gonna
15:50
Speaker 1: buy it, as I'm not gonna give it out as
15:51
Speaker 1: a play. But they're up from minus one eighteen to
15:53
Speaker 1: minus one thirty sixty two percent ticket seventy eight percent
15:56
Speaker 1: of the cash on them. They are my pick to
15:58
Speaker 1: win the World Series, which seems a bit out there
16:01
Speaker 1: because Seattle's never won the World Series if where they're
16:04
Speaker 1: an inexperienced team, and we don't even know if Brian
16:06
Speaker 1: wu is gonna come back or not, as we're three
16:09
Speaker 1: games in here and we haven't seen him yet. Logan
16:12
Speaker 1: Gilbert is gonna be a pitting of this game for Seattle.
16:14
Speaker 1: But the money looks like it is coming in on Seattle,
16:16
Speaker 1: and it's a bit on the under, even though the
16:18
Speaker 1: total flip from seven a half juice to the under
16:20
Speaker 1: a seven and a half juice to the over sixty
16:22
Speaker 1: three percent of tickets only fifty five percent of couch
16:25
Speaker 1: on the over. I mean, I could definitely see an
16:27
Speaker 1: under if you think both of these starting pitchers are
16:29
Speaker 1: gonna come out and pitch well, and that is a
16:31
Speaker 1: definite possibility, but the pitching matchup is hard for me
16:34
Speaker 1: to gauge. As logan Gilbert, he was one of the
16:37
Speaker 1: better pitchers for Seattle this season, maybe their second best
16:41
Speaker 1: besides WU three point four to four ERA one point
16:44
Speaker 1: zero three whip really good. Not as goun on the
16:47
Speaker 1: road though, Remember the Seattle pitchers, they pitch a lot
16:50
Speaker 1: better at home in that pitcher friendly park, and Gilbert's
16:54
Speaker 1: splits are pretty crazy. His ERA was two point five
16:57
Speaker 1: runs higher on the road at four point seven to four.
17:00
Speaker 1: I don't really want to have money on him on
17:02
Speaker 1: the road in most cases. He did bitch well down
17:04
Speaker 1: the stretch, though, including three road starts in September two
17:07
Speaker 1: point three ERA twenty nine to five strike a walk ratio,
17:11
Speaker 1: so that's all pretty good. He allowed two or fewer
17:13
Speaker 1: earned runs over the entire month, so he was pitching
17:17
Speaker 1: well on the road there. He's in good form right now.
17:21
Speaker 1: The other thing you might have to worry about with
17:23
Speaker 1: Gilbert is. I don't know how experienced he really isn't
17:26
Speaker 1: pitching in the playoffs. I don't know if he's ever
17:28
Speaker 1: made a playoff start before. He hasn't made one this
17:30
Speaker 1: year yet, so could be a little bit of a
17:33
Speaker 1: pressure scenario. We'll see in his numbers he gets Detroit
17:36
Speaker 1: are not terrific and seventy seven at bats twenty one
17:39
Speaker 1: to five strike a walk ratio is good two ninety
17:42
Speaker 1: nine batting average a lot is very high, though, but
17:45
Speaker 1: he hasn't really allowed any power to them. They don't
17:47
Speaker 1: have any home runs off him, so he's held him
17:49
Speaker 1: to a seven eighteen ops. But Detroit has hit him
17:52
Speaker 1: for a lot of contact, so that is definitely something
17:56
Speaker 1: to keep in mind. And then I usually look at
17:57
Speaker 1: what have they done against that opponent this year. He
18:00
Speaker 1: did pitch at Detroit at one point this year and
18:03
Speaker 1: he went five and a third, didn't give up any
18:05
Speaker 1: iron runs, So he did pitch pretty well against him
18:07
Speaker 1: in that start, with nine strikeouts two walks in five
18:09
Speaker 1: and third which was in July. And then he did
18:15
Speaker 1: pitch against them once early in the season on April first,
18:20
Speaker 1: and had ten strikeouts against them at home, three on runs.
18:23
Speaker 1: In five innings, so he did pitch pretty well against him,
18:25
Speaker 1: struck out a lot of guys, so certainly as possible,
18:28
Speaker 1: Gilbert does come out to pitch well here. Generally he
18:32
Speaker 1: is the better pitcher. If you just look at these
18:33
Speaker 1: two and say which one of these guys is the
18:35
Speaker 1: better pitcher, it is Gilbert. He's going up against Jack
18:38
Speaker 1: Flaherty for Detroit here, who had a pretty mediocre season
18:41
Speaker 1: four point six four ERA, one point two eight whip.
18:44
Speaker 1: Although Flaherty is better at home four point one to
18:47
Speaker 1: eighty RA at home, his whole MERA is better than
18:49
Speaker 1: Gilbert's road ERA, so that is somebody to keep in mind.
18:52
Speaker 1: Flaherty has a decent amount of experience in the postseason.
18:56
Speaker 1: Of course, he was there last year with the Dodgers.
18:59
Speaker 1: He's been around for a while. He made one start
19:01
Speaker 1: already this postseason in the Wildcard round against Cleveland. They
19:06
Speaker 1: didn't overwork him. They they pulled him before the end
19:09
Speaker 1: of the fifth inning. He only allowed one on and run,
19:12
Speaker 1: wasn't too bad for strike ups two walks, so Flaherty
19:15
Speaker 1: he pitched okay there. He's going up against a better
19:17
Speaker 1: offense this time in Seattle, but his numbers against Seattle.
19:21
Speaker 1: I mean, they're also kind of mediocre, just because he's
19:23
Speaker 1: allowed too much power to them on one hundred and
19:26
Speaker 1: one of bats. Forty to ten strike a walk ratio
19:28
Speaker 1: is good too. Thirty eight batting average allowed as low,
19:31
Speaker 1: but a seven to seventy eight ohps is pretty high.
19:34
Speaker 1: Six home runs allowed, but five of the six are
19:36
Speaker 1: from a Rosarna and Suarez, not Raleigh. Raley actually doesn't
19:40
Speaker 1: do that well against him, so interesting. Suarez, one of
19:43
Speaker 1: their trade deadline pickups, actually crushes Flaherty for home runs
19:49
Speaker 1: at least, so that is interesting. Yeah. I mean, I
19:52
Speaker 1: don't really want anything to do with this game. Man.
19:56
Speaker 1: I don't even know if I have an opinion on it,
19:58
Speaker 1: to be honest, I mean, the money is saying Seattle
20:00
Speaker 1: in the under. I mean I could see the arguments
20:03
Speaker 1: for it, but I just yeah, I mean I could
20:06
Speaker 1: see arguments the other way too, So just I guess
20:08
Speaker 1: do with that information what you will. But I don't
20:10
Speaker 1: really have an opinion on it. I don't want to
20:13
Speaker 1: force myself to give out an opinion, although you know,
20:17
Speaker 1: generally if I don't have one, I will kind of
20:19
Speaker 1: resort to, like, what is the market telling me? And
20:21
Speaker 1: then Toronto at the Yankees. Toronto's up to zero in
20:24
Speaker 1: the series, but I'm still not convinced that Toronto's gonna
20:28
Speaker 1: win the entire series. I mean, hopefully they do. They
20:31
Speaker 1: got three chances here where they gotta win one game
20:34
Speaker 1: out of the next three. But Toronto's not as good
20:37
Speaker 1: on the road. They're forty and forty one on the road.
20:39
Speaker 1: Yankees are really good fifty and thirty one at home.
20:42
Speaker 1: So the Yankees definitely are good at home. Yankees are
20:46
Speaker 1: gonna have a decent pitching setup, I think for the
20:49
Speaker 1: most part, for the remainder of the series, although I'm
20:52
Speaker 1: happy that Toronto did win both those first two games.
20:54
Speaker 1: So Toronto won in such a ridiculous fashion. Man, they
20:57
Speaker 1: put up twenty three runs in the first two games series,
21:01
Speaker 1: and a lot of it was against the Yankees bullpen.
21:03
Speaker 1: I know the Yankees bullpen is bad for sure. Toronto's
21:06
Speaker 1: is mediocre. Yankees bullpen is less than mediocre, so Toronto
21:10
Speaker 1: does have a better bullpen. Both teams have good offenses.
21:14
Speaker 1: The Yankees offense is a little bit better. But Toronto
21:16
Speaker 1: putting up twenty three runs in the first two games
21:18
Speaker 1: of a series, I believe that's never happened before in
21:21
Speaker 1: the postseason, so that's it is a bit of a
21:24
Speaker 1: ridiculous outlier. So you've got to expect some regression to
21:28
Speaker 1: happen here. So the Yankees side kind of makes sense
21:31
Speaker 1: from that perspective. But Toronto is going with Shane Bieber here.
21:35
Speaker 1: And Shane Bieber he's had a good career, man, and
21:38
Speaker 1: he's not overworked this season because he missed most of
21:41
Speaker 1: the season coming back from Cy Young or from say
21:44
Speaker 1: Cy Young surgery, man, that's what he had, no coming
21:47
Speaker 1: back from Tommy John surgery. I think he did win
21:49
Speaker 1: a Cy Young or he was at least in the
21:52
Speaker 1: discussion for Cy Young back in I guess it would
21:55
Speaker 1: have been twenty twenty two or maybe twenty twenty. I
21:58
Speaker 1: don't know he had twenty twenty two, probably because twenty
22:00
Speaker 1: twenty he didn't pitch the full season. He had a
22:03
Speaker 1: really good twenty twenty two, and he's done really good
22:05
Speaker 1: throughout his career. Man, he's an experienced pitcher. I'm pretty
22:08
Speaker 1: sure he's pitched in the playoffs before, so he's not
22:10
Speaker 1: gonna be intimidated by this. Uh. This season, he had
22:13
Speaker 1: a three point five seven e ram and one point
22:15
Speaker 1: oh two whip. He was slightly worse on the road
22:18
Speaker 1: three point nine to three ERA, but that's still good.
22:21
Speaker 1: Still pitch well in the month of September, though a
22:23
Speaker 1: little bit less well four point three ERA, twenty two
22:27
Speaker 1: to seven strike out walk ratio, but he allowed two
22:29
Speaker 1: or fewer and runs in the last three outings. Hasn't
22:33
Speaker 1: pitched yet this postseason, which does mean that he's rested.
22:36
Speaker 1: But again you have to kind of figure out res
22:38
Speaker 1: versus rust here, like, well, will that extra time off
22:42
Speaker 1: kind of affect the pitcher scheduling. I don't know. I
22:44
Speaker 1: mean with him, when it's guys like him who are
22:46
Speaker 1: veterans and they've been around for a while, they're pretty
22:48
Speaker 1: much used to it, so I don't know how much
22:50
Speaker 1: it'll really affect him. He's also been really good against
22:52
Speaker 1: the Yankees in the past if fifty two at bats,
22:55
Speaker 1: eighteen to three, strike out walk ratio, one fifty four
22:58
Speaker 1: batting average a lot in four eighty eight ohps. They
23:01
Speaker 1: only have eight hits off him, and six of them
23:03
Speaker 1: are gold, Schmid and Stanton, so only four Yankees hitters
23:07
Speaker 1: have any hits off him, which is pretty insane. So
23:11
Speaker 1: Bieber has done really well against them. He's going on
23:15
Speaker 1: against Carlos Redon, who I think is the lesser of
23:17
Speaker 1: the two pitchers. Although he was good down the stretch
23:20
Speaker 1: to three point h ninety RA in the season one
23:22
Speaker 1: point zero five whip. He was good at home two
23:25
Speaker 1: point nine to eight home RA in the month of
23:28
Speaker 1: September two point six one ERA twenty six to six
23:31
Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio. Allowed three or fewer owned runs
23:36
Speaker 1: in every outing, although two or fewer and all of
23:38
Speaker 1: them until the last one against the White Sox. He
23:40
Speaker 1: did give up three earned runs in his one playoff
23:42
Speaker 1: outing against the Red Sox, but it was a decent outing,
23:45
Speaker 1: and of course the Red Sox wound up losing that
23:48
Speaker 1: game by one run, which pisses me off, obviously, because
23:51
Speaker 1: the Red Sox had their chances to eliminate the Yankees.
23:54
Speaker 1: In that game. Radon went six innings and that one
23:57
Speaker 1: three on runs a lot, six strikeouts three walks are
24:00
Speaker 1: a little bit high, but since he walked out too
24:03
Speaker 1: many guys in August, he got his walk number way
24:06
Speaker 1: down since then, so I don't think he's like all
24:08
Speaker 1: of a sudden wild again or anything like that. Against Toronto.
24:13
Speaker 1: A little bit questionable and one hundred and fourteen of
24:15
Speaker 1: bats thirty to thirteen strike a walk ratio a bit
24:18
Speaker 1: too many walks there two fifty four average allownd seven
24:21
Speaker 1: fifty two ohps, so they have been able to hit
24:23
Speaker 1: him a bit. So his numbers are the worst of
24:26
Speaker 1: the two between him and Bieber. The money's coming in
24:28
Speaker 1: on the Yankees. They're rough for minus one to forty
24:30
Speaker 1: seven of minus one fifty two. I mean, they're facing
24:32
Speaker 1: elimination and then the Yankees, So I do think that
24:35
Speaker 1: means you're gonna pay maybe a little bit too much
24:37
Speaker 1: of a price for the Yankees. But then again, because
24:39
Speaker 1: everybody saw what Toronto did in the first two games
24:42
Speaker 1: of the series, maybe you're actually getting taxed less on
24:46
Speaker 1: the Yankees than you would be otherwise. Sixty six percent
24:50
Speaker 1: of the tickets, ninety percent of the casual on the Yankees.
24:52
Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the Yankees. I'm hoping
24:57
Speaker 1: Toronto can do it, man. I do think Bieber is
24:59
Speaker 1: the better of these two pitchers, and he does have
25:01
Speaker 1: the better matchup numbers, So if he's able to do it.
25:06
Speaker 1: To me, I mean, I think Toronto can win this game.
25:09
Speaker 1: But it does concern me a lot, obviously, and the
25:11
Speaker 1: money is disagreeing with that. I mean, if I had
25:14
Speaker 1: a lean, it would probably be slightly to Toronto in
25:17
Speaker 1: this game, to be honest, just because I do think
25:19
Speaker 1: they have the better pitching throughout this game. But Yankees
25:22
Speaker 1: are gonna show up with a lot of motivation. The
25:24
Speaker 1: Yankees are a lot better at home, so I just
25:26
Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to do it, man, And there's definitely
25:31
Speaker 1: a possibility that the Yankees win that game, obviously. So
25:34
Speaker 1: those are my thoughts on that. Let's go to hockey
25:37
Speaker 1: as it is opening day in the National Hockey League, Jeffrey,
25:40
Speaker 1: I apologize, I'm not gonna have any plays on this
25:43
Speaker 1: and I don't have a whole lot to say, to
25:45
Speaker 1: be honest, A couple of these games I don't find
25:46
Speaker 1: to be that interesting, but we do have hockey and
25:51
Speaker 1: the opening face off for the first games at five
25:53
Speaker 1: oh seven. Weird start times for these games, man. In
25:56
Speaker 1: hockey baseball, it's all weird. Chicago black Hawks at Florida
26:01
Speaker 1: Panthers is the first game of the season. I guess
26:03
Speaker 1: we don't have any of those weird international games this
26:05
Speaker 1: year before before the beginning of the season. Although I'm
26:08
Speaker 1: sure there will be some in the middle of the season.
26:12
Speaker 1: I assume all of these games are just at the
26:14
Speaker 1: team's home locations though, right, I mean, you can correct
26:16
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong, but I believe that is the case.
26:19
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, so this is a well, of course, this
26:22
Speaker 1: is at Florida. This is the banner raising ceremony for Florida.
26:26
Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. Uh so Florida. Of course, we know
26:29
Speaker 1: they're the returning champs, right, so they're gonna raise the banner.
26:33
Speaker 1: I could see that going both ways, to be honest, Like,
26:35
Speaker 1: you know that because Florida is the returning champs, you're
26:37
Speaker 1: not gonna find any value in laying a price with Florida.
26:40
Speaker 1: You're gonna lay too much of a price with Florida
26:43
Speaker 1: because everybody knows how good they are. Chicago is still
26:46
Speaker 1: kind of in a rebuild. I mean, they have some
26:48
Speaker 1: young talent on this team. They were one of the
26:51
Speaker 1: worst teams in the league last year. But at some
26:53
Speaker 1: point they're gonna improve. But it's like, how drastic is
26:56
Speaker 1: that improvement gonna be just from last year to this year.
27:00
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I still don't think they're
27:01
Speaker 1: going to be very good, but again, it remains to
27:05
Speaker 1: be seen. It's difficult to say. Man, I don't know
27:07
Speaker 1: the personnel that well in hockey, so it's really difficult
27:10
Speaker 1: to tell. And of course Chicago one of their main
27:12
Speaker 1: pieces is Connor Bedard and he came into the league
27:15
Speaker 1: at like nineteen years old, so very very young. So
27:19
Speaker 1: at some point the Chicago team will be better. I
27:22
Speaker 1: don't know how immediate that is going to be. Florida again,
27:26
Speaker 1: you know, they're being overvalued, and when the banner raising
27:28
Speaker 1: ceremony happens, I could see that going two ways. It
27:31
Speaker 1: can piss off the opponent and make the opponent more motivated.
27:35
Speaker 1: But this isn't really a rivalry game, so I don't
27:37
Speaker 1: know if I see that. Like if this game was
27:39
Speaker 1: against like Boston or you know, against Edmonton who had
27:44
Speaker 1: lost to Stanley Cup finals in a row. Against Florida,
27:47
Speaker 1: then I could see, Yeah, that team is gonna be
27:49
Speaker 1: pissed and have like a super revenge motive. You everyone
27:52
Speaker 1: in Chicago. I don't really know. I mean, not no
27:56
Speaker 1: real like huge rivalry here. And of course it could
27:58
Speaker 1: have the other effect to where the gets pumped up
28:01
Speaker 1: with their banner being raised and whatever. We will see
28:03
Speaker 1: what happens. Florida is a huge favorite here, but the
28:05
Speaker 1: money line did drop on them minus three thirty to
28:09
Speaker 1: minus two to eighty. But they have the cash percentage
28:12
Speaker 1: on them right now seventy six percent of tickets eighty
28:14
Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Florida, so the money
28:17
Speaker 1: is somewhat coming in on them. Hockey is similar to baseball.
28:21
Speaker 1: If you guys haven't seen any of my hockey handicapping before,
28:26
Speaker 1: it's a lot of us. So there's money line, a
28:27
Speaker 1: lot of money line plays because it's a money line sport,
28:29
Speaker 1: but there is sort of the equivalent of a spread bet.
28:33
Speaker 1: Like we have the run line in baseball, we have
28:35
Speaker 1: a puck line in hockey that's basically the same thing
28:38
Speaker 1: where you can take teams to come within one and
28:42
Speaker 1: a half goals or win by one and a half goals.
28:44
Speaker 1: So with a money line like this, you're probably looking
28:47
Speaker 1: more towards a puck line in this game. And if
28:50
Speaker 1: you think there's any value in fading Florida, you know,
28:53
Speaker 1: because Florida is probably a little bit over value here.
28:55
Speaker 1: You could be looking to a Blackhawks puck line at
28:58
Speaker 1: plus one and a half goals. I don't know how
29:01
Speaker 1: much you have to pay for that because you know,
29:02
Speaker 1: in hockey you have to pay a little bit more
29:04
Speaker 1: for that because goals obviously are harder to come by
29:07
Speaker 1: than runs in baseball, so each you know, each uh,
29:14
Speaker 1: each goal is worth a little bit more than each
29:17
Speaker 1: run in baseball. Did Florida lose their captain injury? Which captain?
29:22
Speaker 1: They have multiple captains? I don't think. Let me see.
29:25
Speaker 1: Let's see what the injury report says here. It looks
29:28
Speaker 1: like Barkov is out for Florida. He is one of
29:31
Speaker 1: their better players. I don't know if he's their captain
29:34
Speaker 1: or not. He's one of their centers. He's out. Oh
29:39
Speaker 1: he had a cl and mc l and missed. He's
29:42
Speaker 1: gonna miss I guess most of the season. So he's
29:44
Speaker 1: gonna be out. I mean that's it's a pretty key injury.
29:48
Speaker 1: But it's not like I don't know, I wouldn't say that.
29:51
Speaker 1: It's like, like this is hockey, man, so hockey. I mean,
29:55
Speaker 1: there's only so much effect that one like star player
29:58
Speaker 1: can really have in one single game because hockey you're
30:01
Speaker 1: constantly rotating in and out lines. He usually got like
30:03
Speaker 1: four different lines of players, So I don't know how
30:07
Speaker 1: much of an effect that will have. It doesn't seem
30:09
Speaker 1: to be affected the line very much, and it shouldn't.
30:11
Speaker 1: Like I know, I talk about like the injured player theory.
30:14
Speaker 1: I think it is much more impactful in basketball and
30:17
Speaker 1: football when there's a quarterback injury, because those are like
30:21
Speaker 1: an individual basketball player who is really really good or
30:24
Speaker 1: a quarterback. Those are the injuries that have the most
30:27
Speaker 1: impact because those are the individuals that have the most
30:29
Speaker 1: impact on a game. In hockey, it's a little bit
30:32
Speaker 1: less so the case. So I don't know the Buyerkov injury,
30:37
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna affect the team in general
30:39
Speaker 1: that much. And then we do get into the night
30:42
Speaker 1: slate here Pittsburgh and the Rangers. It kind of interesting, man,
30:47
Speaker 1: because both of these teams were used to seeing these
30:49
Speaker 1: teams in the playoffs and they both missed the playoffs
30:51
Speaker 1: last year. They're both original six teams, and I believe
30:55
Speaker 1: so Chicago. So some of the three of the six
30:58
Speaker 1: are playing today and all the the other two of
31:03
Speaker 1: the other three are playing tomorrow or no, all three
31:05
Speaker 1: of the other ones are playing tomorrow Montreal, Boston and Toronto.
31:10
Speaker 1: But yeah, Pittsburgh and the Rangers, they both kind of
31:12
Speaker 1: had down years last year. But the Rangers really just
31:15
Speaker 1: underperformed last year. Man, the oddsmakers are telling you the
31:18
Speaker 1: Rangers of the better team. Pittsburgh was like legitimately bad
31:21
Speaker 1: last year, which sounds weird to say, but they were
31:25
Speaker 1: Rangers up for minus two to five to minus two nineteen.
31:28
Speaker 1: I mean, we're gone from the the Pittsburgh era where
31:31
Speaker 1: they had you know, I think they probably still have
31:33
Speaker 1: Sidney Grosby, but he's really old now, you know. I mean,
31:37
Speaker 1: they got these guys that are well past their prime now.
31:40
Speaker 1: Eighty three percent of tickets, ninety six percent of the
31:42
Speaker 1: casual on the Rangers. Rangers taking a lot of money
31:45
Speaker 1: here and again, when you handicap hockey, you got to
31:47
Speaker 1: look to see like who the starting goalies are and whatever,
31:49
Speaker 1: because that comes into play with the handicap as well.
31:52
Speaker 1: But that happens it mostly as an effect. When you
31:56
Speaker 1: get into the season, you see, oh, this team's gonna
31:58
Speaker 1: have their backup goalie. And because teams use multiple goalies, right,
32:02
Speaker 1: goalies don't play every single game, although some teams have
32:05
Speaker 1: their goalie playing most games. But in this game, it's
32:08
Speaker 1: the first game of the season, so you know, unless
32:09
Speaker 1: there is an injury. The starting goalie is gonna play
32:12
Speaker 1: for every team here. But yeah, the money's coming in
32:15
Speaker 1: on the Rangers. Does seem like a bit of a
32:18
Speaker 1: price to lay with the Rangers here, although with the
32:20
Speaker 1: Rangers team that might be a little bit. The public
32:25
Speaker 1: might be a little bit off of the Rangers after
32:26
Speaker 1: how bad they were last year. But I think they're
32:29
Speaker 1: gonna want nothing to do with Pittsburgh either though. But
32:31
Speaker 1: what do we want to do with this game? I
32:32
Speaker 1: don't fucking know, dude. I mean, both these teams are
32:34
Speaker 1: gonna show up because this is a pretty big It's
32:38
Speaker 1: a big matchup, man. I mean, these teams are in
32:41
Speaker 1: the same conference or whatever, they don't really like each other, particularly,
32:44
Speaker 1: they're both usually playoff teams, so you have that going
32:48
Speaker 1: on there. I don't know what else to say about it.
32:50
Speaker 1: But that's actually I got the original six wrong. I'm
32:54
Speaker 1: an idiot. Pittsburgh's not one of them. Detroit is one
32:56
Speaker 1: of them, right, So Detroit's not playing until Thursday, I guess,
33:01
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm an idiot. But yeah, something to keep
33:03
Speaker 1: in mind there affect the heart for the game on
33:09
Speaker 1: what do you mean, like, what effect will it have
33:14
Speaker 1: so like Florida with the banner raising, like I mean,
33:16
Speaker 1: I think it might make them like a little bit
33:18
Speaker 1: overconfident and cocky. I don't know. I mean, Florida they've
33:21
Speaker 1: won to Stanley Cups in a row. But then again,
33:24
Speaker 1: it means they're used to it because they did it
33:26
Speaker 1: last year, right, and I think they actually we could check.
33:28
Speaker 1: But I think they actually lost to Boston last year
33:31
Speaker 1: in the opener. Am I right about that? Because I
33:35
Speaker 1: think I had Boston. I think I gave out the
33:37
Speaker 1: Bruins as a play in that game, Am I right?
33:39
Speaker 1: Hold on, I'm gonna look real quick. No, I think
33:43
Speaker 1: I gave out Boston. But but Florida actually won the game.
33:47
Speaker 1: So in the banner raising ceremony last year, the opening game,
33:49
Speaker 1: it was against Boston. Yeah, and Florida won that game,
33:53
Speaker 1: So I guess, do with that information what you will.
33:56
Speaker 1: I thought I thought the Bruins were gonna show up
34:00
Speaker 1: in that game and and be really really angry. But
34:02
Speaker 1: that's because the Bruins got knocked out of the playoffs
34:05
Speaker 1: by Florida that year, and then they got knocked out
34:07
Speaker 1: again this year this past year. So yeah, I mean,
34:11
Speaker 1: I thought it was a revenge motive for the Bruins
34:13
Speaker 1: in that one, But that means Florida's used to playing
34:16
Speaker 1: in the or the banner raising situation. Man so then
34:20
Speaker 1: won in the situation last year. They obviously could do
34:22
Speaker 1: it again. And it's again it's not a team that's
34:26
Speaker 1: really one of their rivals. This is gonna be really
34:27
Speaker 1: really angry. And then the only competitive line is in
34:31
Speaker 1: this late night game with Colorado at La the money's
34:36
Speaker 1: coming into Colorado. Colorado down for minus one ten to
34:38
Speaker 1: minus one. Await, so the oddsmakers are kind of telling
34:40
Speaker 1: you that Colorado is the better of these two teams,
34:44
Speaker 1: even though Colorado kind of put up less of a
34:48
Speaker 1: fight in the playoffs. Well, I thought Colorado was gonna
34:52
Speaker 1: make a nice run of the playoffs last year, and
34:53
Speaker 1: they did not, because what else is new? Colorado seems
34:56
Speaker 1: to just underperform in the playoffs. I think people are
35:00
Speaker 1: gonna actually maybe have a tendency to want to be
35:02
Speaker 1: more on the Kings this time because of what they
35:04
Speaker 1: saw in the playoffs last year. Kings were a bit better.
35:08
Speaker 1: I think the Kings might have they either won one
35:10
Speaker 1: series or they played really well in the first series,
35:12
Speaker 1: at least in kind of surprised people. Uh, sixty percent
35:15
Speaker 1: of the tickets are on the Kings, fifty two percent
35:18
Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on Colorado's. The money is
35:20
Speaker 1: coming back in on Colorado. The oddsmakers are telling you
35:23
Speaker 1: that Colorado is the better team here though, because the
35:25
Speaker 1: Kings don't have the full home ice built into the
35:28
Speaker 1: line here. Although the Kings are really really good at home. Man,
35:32
Speaker 1: they were probably I think they had the best home
35:34
Speaker 1: record last year out of all of the teams. Like,
35:37
Speaker 1: the Kings were some ridiculous record at home, Like I
35:40
Speaker 1: think they only like what was it, like, I don't know.
35:43
Speaker 1: I can look real quick. Actually they had some really
35:45
Speaker 1: really good home record last year. I could check real quick.
35:49
Speaker 1: Let me see schedule. Look at last year. Oh yeah,
35:56
Speaker 1: that's right. The Kings put up a decent fight against Edmonton,
35:59
Speaker 1: but they got knocked out. Yeah. The Kings were thirty one,
36:01
Speaker 1: six and four at home last year, so they were
36:04
Speaker 1: ridiculous at home. Last year. They hardly lost at all
36:07
Speaker 1: at home. So it is definitely difficult to fade the
36:09
Speaker 1: Kings at home. So I really don't want to do it,
36:11
Speaker 1: even though the money is saying Colorado, Colorado may very
36:14
Speaker 1: well be the better team here, but I can't bring
36:18
Speaker 1: myself to do it because of how great the Kings
36:20
Speaker 1: were at home last year. Colorado did kind of underperform
36:24
Speaker 1: last year. So just those are basically my thoughts on
36:27
Speaker 1: the game mat so you can see what the money
36:29
Speaker 1: is doing there. There isn't a whole lot else to
36:31
Speaker 1: really say about it. I mean, both these teams are
36:33
Speaker 1: pretty good. I think they'll continue to be good this year.
36:37
Speaker 1: That's what I got, man, That's pretty much what I got.
36:41
Speaker 1: But you know, both teams are going to show up
36:43
Speaker 1: for this game too. I mean, this is a situation
36:46
Speaker 1: where both teams were good last year. It's the opening game.
36:49
Speaker 1: I mean, the teams are gonna show up. And all
36:50
Speaker 1: these games are on ESPN, by the way, but that
36:53
Speaker 1: game is the most competitively lined could be the most
36:55
Speaker 1: interesting of the games. And that's gonna do it. Man, Mark,
37:00
Speaker 1: what's up? Man? Mac? What's going on? A lot of
37:07
Speaker 1: people are on the Blackhawks. Yeah, you like Bennett. I
37:11
Speaker 1: don't like Bennett because of what he did to my
37:13
Speaker 1: Boston Bruins. Not a not a fan of his play
37:18
Speaker 1: against him, but he's obviously good. Yeah, I mean Florida
37:21
Speaker 1: has a lot of offensive talent. I mean, Barkov is good,
37:24
Speaker 1: but they could. They're still gonna be good without him, obviously,
37:29
Speaker 1: So you you're gonna parlay Panthers with the over. Interesting. Uh,
37:33
Speaker 1: I didn't see what the market was doing on the toll.
37:35
Speaker 1: I don't do hockey totals too often. I mean, I actually, well,
37:39
Speaker 1: I don't know if I should say that, because it
37:42
Speaker 1: was probably the sport where I did the second most
37:44
Speaker 1: totals last year was hockey baseball obviously by far the most.
37:48
Speaker 1: But I did play some hockey totals last year, and
37:50
Speaker 1: it was mostly overs in situations where I thought both
37:53
Speaker 1: teams were in a bad spot. The over, by the way,
37:55
Speaker 1: he's getting eighty nine percent of tickets and ninety five
37:57
Speaker 1: percent of the cash in that game, likes Colorado as well.
38:01
Speaker 1: I mean, the money is saying that. But I just
38:04
Speaker 1: can't fade the Kings at home, man. Yeah, they were
38:08
Speaker 1: really good on the road two years ago. I don't know, man,
38:11
Speaker 1: I just don't. I don't want to fade them. You
38:14
Speaker 1: like overs in every one of these games. I don't know, man,
38:17
Speaker 1: because I think the part of the reason why the
38:21
Speaker 1: totals are low the five and a half is like
38:22
Speaker 1: a typical hockey total, but part of the reason why
38:25
Speaker 1: it's so long, and of course five is a key number, remember,
38:28
Speaker 1: because one team has to win by one goal, so
38:30
Speaker 1: same as baseball, the odd number is the key number.
38:34
Speaker 1: So you want to if you play it totally, you
38:35
Speaker 1: want to try to again on the better side of
38:37
Speaker 1: the five, but usually you're not. Sometimes they're not gonna
38:40
Speaker 1: be able to though when you play an over. I mean,
38:42
Speaker 1: it's just the nature of these hockey totals. You don't
38:45
Speaker 1: have a whole lot of variance in the line there.
38:47
Speaker 1: It's usually almost always gonna be five to five and
38:50
Speaker 1: a half or six, I believe, but I don't know, man,
38:54
Speaker 1: because the offenses could start slow to start the season,
38:57
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure that I totally agree with with
39:00
Speaker 1: the overs there. Generally, Yeah, money and the ticket percentage.
39:04
Speaker 1: We're all in Florida. Florida's public, but I don't think
39:07
Speaker 1: there's any value on play on Florida. I mean, the
39:10
Speaker 1: money line did drop on Florida, so I mean, you're
39:13
Speaker 1: not gonna really get any value on the back to
39:15
Speaker 1: back defending Stanley Cup champs there. So I mean, if
39:19
Speaker 1: you wanted to play the Blackhawks. You could have at it.
39:21
Speaker 1: I would probably play the plus one and a half
39:23
Speaker 1: puck line depending on what the price is on that.
39:26
Speaker 1: But I don't. I just don't want any part of it.
39:28
Speaker 1: I really don't. So eventually I'll have hockey plays, but
39:31
Speaker 1: not today. Oh that's gonna do it, guys, thanks for
39:34
Speaker 1: hanging out this morning. The one play is the w
39:36
Speaker 1: NBA Phoenix minus three and a half. It looks like
39:39
Speaker 1: it's mostly fours across the board now there, but I
39:41
Speaker 1: do think Phoenix puts together a good performance and wins
39:44
Speaker 1: that game tonight. That's gonna do it. Man. Let's let's
39:49
Speaker 1: get that get that win tonight. Let's continue this because
39:51
Speaker 1: we've only had one losing day in the past like
39:54
Speaker 1: two weeks basically, so we're hot right now. Let's keep
39:57
Speaker 1: it going. Learn a tone on Twitter, and learn a
39:59
Speaker 1: tone on Instagram. Yeah, follow me there. Better off Dead obviously,
40:04
Speaker 1: like subscribe to the channel here. Let's boost this YouTube channel. Man,
40:07
Speaker 1: let's get it going. I want to get to five
40:10
Speaker 1: hundred subscribers and need all these milestones. Man, want to
40:12
Speaker 1: blow this thing up. Covered in yuke also on YouTube
40:15
Speaker 1: for my yuke stuff. Better Off Dead is also on
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40:20
Speaker 1: listen on Apple and Spotify and that helps me out
40:23
Speaker 1: as well. And paedroon dot com slash learn to tote
40:26
Speaker 1: and there's some bonus Uke content there. You're gonna fade
40:30
Speaker 1: Florida all season. It's got to depend on the spot man,
40:34
Speaker 1: individual spots. I mean, Florida, they're gonna be good again.
40:37
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think they're gonna three peat, but
40:39
Speaker 1: they're definitely gonna be one of the better teams in
40:41
Speaker 1: hockey again until unless we see otherwise. But they're definitely
40:46
Speaker 1: gonna be spots to fade them too. Uh yeah, man,
40:50
Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out. Hell yeah, I'll be back tomorrow
40:54
Speaker 1: with Wednesday Wednesday. We have a college football on Wednesday now,
40:57
Speaker 1: starting this week. College football usually start getting these Conference
41:02
Speaker 1: USA Wednesday games start coming in midway through the season,
41:05
Speaker 1: and then maction on Tuesday. The MAC has Tuesday games
41:09
Speaker 1: starting probably next week or something. So we're gonna have
41:12
Speaker 1: some college football tomorrow. There's more NHL tomorrow, don't know
41:16
Speaker 1: if I'm gonna have any plays yet, and then yeah,
41:20
Speaker 1: and there's gonna be more baseball. So we'll be back
41:22
Speaker 1: tomorrow with all that, and then football for the rest
41:26
Speaker 1: of the week. Peace Out guys for now.