Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / 2026 Bowman Chrome DSL Hitter Price Check - Week 3
Transcript
- underscore_underscore_: Hmm. Will Jarvis: Hello, everybody. Welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, here on my cell phone because my computer has seemingly betrayed me from recording content. Maybe it just didn't want my face on there. Who knows? I am joined, as always, by my co host, Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly, known as JGB underscore. Cards underscore. And we're just going to get right into it here today. This is the first of we're going to try to do three separate price update episodes today. we're gonna try to do this weekly. We'll see how many we get through. We'll see if my computer starts working. But yeah, so this one we're talking about DSL top players. So we'll do a DSL hitter, a you know, full season. hitter and I guess the FCL guys will or complex guys will fall into that as well. and then we'll just do one for the top ten pitchers. so yeah we got the DSL here. Jeremy, what what is interesting to you about this list? We have la the price from the last three Wednesdays on here. And now we're three weeks out. underscore_underscore_: I think most not it's not even surprising. No phone call. Hold on. I think most surprising my goodness. There we go. I think most surprising is that it's really not surprising at all the list in which these base numbers have settled. and there hasn't been a lot of really variations. from week wa week two to week three. Obviously we saw a lot of a lot of drop from week one to week two, but then it really has been steady eddy from week two to week three, which means those markets have definitely stabilized and they kind of are what they are right now. Sure, Will Jarvis: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: you're gonna get some jump here, some jump there. You get an article here, an article there, you're going to see stuff like that jump. but Luis Fernandez down. Kind of like he's still your top, your top sale at $139.37. that makes sense. Still a redemption, like. Kind of is what it is there, right? Followed by Renteria at $128. I think he has already fallen sub $100 right now, or you can get him pretty damn close to being sub three digits. And Ange Bell's at number three, which talent wise, you would have almost thought that whole list to be flipped. But I also think Gomez with the announcement of the AFL coming to the AFL, that's gonna push him closer towards that three digit price point was at eighty six eighty three. That's eighty-three Will Jarvis: Right. underscore_underscore_: as in cents. The last two base autos, a quick search of card letters ninety three and ninety-four dollars, both at auction from the same seller. And prior to that was your eighty-three dollar mark for back to back sales. So whether that was a fluke, whether that's people just trying to get ready for the AFL with the announcement, and those were the first two that have sold. I mean that's kind of all like, yeah, no kidding. That's kind of how we would have thought it to be, correct? Will Jarvis: Yeah, I think, you know, we've kind of said all along that that's the top three. I think it's, you know, pretty much uniformly agreed upon that that's the top three. Like you said, I think the order's a little backwards. But again, Luis Hernandez being a redemption, I think, has just kind of slowed down the volume of deals. You know, basically once you hit a certain number of deals is really when you see the price start stabilizing. And I mean, this is showing that. Hernandez has only had 19 base auto sales, at least, you underscore_underscore_: Right. Will Jarvis: know, on eBay here. Well while Angible Gomez has a hundred twenty-six. So of course, you know, with six and a half times more volume, you know, you're just gonna see him settle in quicker there. yeah, like you said, agree with everything on the top three. I think Gomez is probably gonna continue to go back up. I wouldn't be surprised next week if he's in triple digits, you know, with that AFL stuff. Don't really need to get back into it. We talked about it a lot on yesterday's episodes, but it it really just removed that cooldown period for him of him like not playing baseball, people forgetting. You know, that cooldown period's been replaced with the AFL. underscore_underscore_: Correct. Will Jarvis: next thing I noticed, the most traded base autograph of all these guys. Is Wandy Asian with 188 recorded sales. underscore_underscore_: Mm. Will Jarvis: so that's a nice little show from the Mets fans there. Asian is you know really lining up with Ellian Pena here. You know, he started at 143, dipped to 63, and this past week he was at 57 and change. you know, I wouldn't be surprised to see him settle around 40 bucks. That's kind of where Ellian Pena settled. again. They're two kind of different players in their profiles, but at the end of the end of the day, it's big money Mets guys. So I think that the pricing, at least until next season, will kind of follow in underscore_underscore_: Mm. Will Jarvis: that track. but yeah, I think another thing that you had said, you know, week one to week two, everyone torpedoed to varying degrees. you know, looking at it now. See it just seems like a lot of guys, you know, have gone down somewhere between fifty and a hundred percent since week one, but like eighty to ninety percent of that was between week one and week two. And now it's really like a ten percent or so drop for most guys. interestingly, I think it's weird that Samil Serrano went forty two, thirty-five and he's now nineteen ninety nine. I think he's definitely a buy. underscore_underscore_: Mm. Will Jarvis: Sub 20 bucks. And then the other one that stands out to me is the only guy to go up every single week was Elian Rosario. Started at 12, then hit 15, then hit 1631. He's got a lot of sales data. I know that his color has really been going up, like we mentioned yesterday. I think he's a guy that just kind of fell through the cracks when everyone's drinking through a fire hose at release, underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Will Jarvis: kind of trying to you know, figure out who their guy is and then go get their guy. I think he was a guy that everyone kind of forgot about and then everyone's running back to, you know, the starting line to to go grab some. So he's interesting. but yeah, what what what else here stands out to you? I know we talked about Colum A yesterday. He's now thirty-three in change. only w what's that? One, two, three, four, five, six Seven eight guys are above twenty dollars in reverse order. That's gonna be Santiago Solarte. Well, Samuel Serrano's nineteen ninety-nine. But Santiago Solarte at twenty dollars and two cents. And then you go to Joni L. Hernandez at twenty-six. Colame at thirty-three. Money's at thirty-four. Money's is another guy who's kind of held up well, continues underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Will Jarvis: to see his color go up big numbers. And then above those guys, you got Colome at 33, and then kind of the big four with Asian kind of in his own. Little price range there at fifty seven and then Angevil eighty six, Rentoria one twenty eight, and Luis Hernandez one thirty nine. so all the bottom six guys, seven guys on this list we have here, and then Diego Frontado are all under twenty dollars, pound for pound, what are you liking in there? underscore_underscore_: there's just a lot of good value now. The only thing is like are they gonna keep dropping? Do you think you can get some Will Jarvis: Right. underscore_underscore_: of these do like when when does Suarez hit sub ten dollars? When Manuel Bolivar is at eight forty three right now, like a true blue just did a hundred and four. Like there's good value there already. And it's just like are we gonna keep bottoming out and then you have to think draft is coming in two months? It's like do you wait on the base autos of these guys and kind of play catch up or go backwards in time. that I'm not sure. I think Angel Nunez being right at seventeen bucks keeps him in line with those Juniker comp ish kind of inklings that we threw out there. Frontado has come down. I actually he s the the numbers here, it went from fifty six to fifteen up to eighteen. Like There might have been some outlier high sales or low sales. I mean the fifty-six has to be right because of release. Then to drop all the way to fifteen kind of seems like might have had some bad sales that kind of hurt that correlation of sales, I guess. I don't know. I'm not good with words or numbers. otherwise Will Jarvis: We do what we can. underscore_underscore_: otherwise we work with what we got. Juan Rijo only has 19 base sales, which is kind of interesting. for live autos, Will Jarvis: Yeah, mate. underscore_underscore_: only having 19 of them is kind of like it's not like he's a redemption kid either. Like his autos are live and selling. So I don't know, Will Jarvis: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: like maybe it's just a shorter printed base. Just like Rentorio's only got fifty one as one of the main chases. Like I don't know. Will Jarvis: Yeah, and there have definitely been some oddities with some of these pop counts, right? I mean, even Luis Hernandez, yeah, of course he's a redemption. But only 19 sales feels very strange. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Will Jarvis: you know, there's the Tallon Haley complete lack of complete lack of color. You know, there's there's a lot of strange little things going on. But yeah, I mean, I I think for me right now. It's just a lot of outside that top three, when you're kind of looking at Column Monies and Assyon, you know, Column Money's around 35, Assy in a 57. For underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Will Jarvis: me, it's like, you know, basically every name on this list from five to sixteen is within shouting range of each other in terms of player underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Will Jarvis: projection. So it's like, well, I'm not gonna say, you know, I'd, you know. manual Bolivar is better than Ricky Money's or something. If you could get five manual Bolivar autos or one Ricky Money's, I I mean you're probably underscore_underscore_: Probably take all of our just for Will Jarvis: Probably taking the ball. underscore_underscore_: the exactly. Or you could mix and match Will Jarvis: Or like underscore_underscore_: and do some a la carte. Like you could get a Rosario and a Serrano for Ricky Money's almost. Like you know, and y you can even go cheaper than some of these. These are just the mean sale. Like Will Jarvis: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: the average median. You could probably find some cheaper even even like on whatnot too. Like these are what they're doing where you're getting thousands of eyes at a time. You get into a room with like eleven people, you could probably get some of these g like second tier I put in air quotes guys for like single digits and I it would not shock me. Will Jarvis: Yeah, no doubt. underscore_underscore_: And then Wandy being a hundred and eighty-eight sales, I have to wonder if that's just because of the name, people are like buying and reselling them so quick, adding to the transaction total. Like I don't know. A hundred and it's definitely Will Jarvis: Yeah, people are underscore_underscore_: not a hundred and eighty eight like organic sales. Like there's definitely some flipping. Yeah. At least I think. There's obviously Will Jarvis: Yeah, he's kinda getting hot potatoed. yeah. underscore_underscore_: no proof of that, but Will Jarvis: Yeah, I I I think for right now, if I had to, you know, kind of give any advice slash a look into how I'm approaching it, I I think it's really just figuring out in that glob of guys right around twenty bucks. You know, for me they're so interchangeable where I'm just looking at the color and seeing, you know, if some of them have blues pop up under a hundred, underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Will Jarvis: you know. I'll probably want to buy those. Whereas, you know, a lot of those guys' blues are still right around two hundred bucks. So underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Will Jarvis: it's like and you know, you had said before, it's like, okay, well, how much more do they bottom out? I just wonder how much more they can bottom out. Cause like I'm trying to think about last year. It's like, is Samil Serrano all that dissimilar to like Kevin Alvarez? And like Kevin Alvarez underscore_underscore_: Probably not. Will Jarvis: probably bottomed out at twenty, so like we're there. It's just like underscore_underscore_: You exactly. Will Jarvis: I if guys this good start bottoming out at ten bucks, you know, I'm I'm just gonna have to stock stockpile, you know, base autos. It it it's underscore_underscore_: Like Yeah, obviously we're we're hunting color right now. As we've said, like this is your time to buy color that's clean and gradable if you were to grade after I don't I don't know how much longer you have until that that proverbial window closes of finding consistently clean stuff. Will Jarvis: Yeah, it's definitely slowing down. I mean, we obviously talk every day and we're kind of following it. And I feel like, you know, there's still a good flow for sure. Like there's definitely like you haven't missed the market, you know, you're not underscore_underscore_: Right. Will Jarvis: totally behind the eight ball, but it does feel like a lot of stuff has come and gone. And I mean underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Will Jarvis: people are snapping it up at Ben. I think people haven't been afraid to you know, overpay a little bit, which I agree with. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: I'm guilty of that. I'm with that. Like especially based off centering right now. Like that's a one thing. You have to assume everything's gonna be pack fresh still at this point. and you can kind of like a trick to the trade that I use is to just go look at the person's store. Like if they have multiple twenty six chromes and have their color listed, odds are they ripped a hobby box or a hobby case and they're getting everything up. Whereas if you only see one with a bunch of other stuff, like, maybe it's a flip. not that that's holds true to everybody, but it's just A context clue. So centering is one thing you can control buying on eBay. If the seller like through photos, obviously if there's a blemish or a print line that you can see, there it is. But overall, centering is big and like I paid up on a Andre Hidalgo true gold. I s I binned it at 125 because it looked really well centered. All of his other golds had looked a little off-centered to me. So I'm like, you know what? We'll pay up for good looking gold here. And I'm okay with it for now. Will Jarvis: Yeah, and it it's like the funny thing with that is, you know, yeah, you paid that, but now I'm you know, there's an Andre Hidalgo auction ending momentarily and I'm gonna try to get it at one ten or below. So yeah, I'm gonna pay a little bit less than you, but it's not centered. underscore_underscore_: Right. Will Jarvis: So like the comps are gonna go down, but that's on cards that will not be going to PSA. You know, price price of grading aside, you know, it just wouldn't go. underscore_underscore_: Right. Will Jarvis: so yeah. You know, again, I think we're both pretty in lockstep on the idea of paying up for premium color of the guys you believe in. That's not saying, you know, just buy true color of everybody. But like if it's a guy you like and you're gonna grade it, you know, get get it early and you won't regret paying 10 to 20 percent more, especially now that less stuff's going to PSA and that 2x kind of 10 premium we think of. I mean, you're already seeing it with 25 draft and 26 Bowman. I really think it's not two anymore. At l at least for, you know, hot names. It it's pushing three. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Will Jarvis: but yeah, I think just to c quickly quickly wrap up here, just looking at these prices, I would say, you know, Jar Suarez at fifteen is a good deal. I underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Will Jarvis: think Serrano just under twenty is a good deal. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Will Jarvis: You know, none of these prices are ridiculous. I think, you know, Hernandez and Rentaria are still high, but like y you get to the third highest guy, it's Angible Gomez. I mean, I'd pay eighty five bucks for you know, I'd go off that multiple. You know, good luck finding an Angible Gomez blue under five hundred dollars. underscore_underscore_: True True Blues have a comma in it, so Will Jarvis: Yeah. So, you know, I I I really think a lot of people say, you know, you gotta wait a month or six weeks even to start buying. I I I think even if you're, you know, trying to be as careful and responsible as possible, I I really think that the time for you to be able to get in here and not worry about downside is upon us. I mean, even if 'cause if like Serrano goes down twenty five percent. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Will Jarvis: Which is probably the most he could go down from here. That's five dollars. I mean underscore_underscore_: You can make that up with one hot week during the season. Like look at Jupiter, Will Jarvis: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: right? So Will Jarvis: You know, I I I just I I love a lot of these guys around twenty bucks. And I think I'll probably start looking at buying base autos of those guys if I can get with PWE shipping on eBay, you know, in that fifteen to twenty range. I I I think that we've kind of flipped into buy mode there. with that being said, you got any closing thoughts here or underscore_underscore_: No, kinda kinda good on this one. This is your AFL hitters week three pricing report. Will Jarvis: T SL underscore_underscore_: What did I say? AFL? Will Jarvis: A SL. underscore_underscore_: I'm on I'm on an AFL kick right now. I'm looking at Angebel Gomez, base autos right now or autos in general, to see if there's anything worth scooping. So AFL is on my brain. But yeah, DSL pricing of hitters kind of I think that the ranking is kind of how it we would have guessed it to be within like a spot or two. So Will Jarvis: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: good to see like our rankings are holding up within the market of how we would have had guys as well. So Will Jarvis: Yeah, it turns out blind dart throws fall nicely sometimes. Just underscore_underscore_: No doubt. Will Jarvis: kidding. all right. so we will wrap up there. Thank you all for listening. we're gonna try to pump out two more right here and have them all out today. We're we're in content overdrive right now. We're loving it. And you know, we're just trying to get out as much stuff as we can that people are gonna find interesting. So don't be a stranger, give us ideas, thoughts. Criticism, constructive criticism ideally. if it's bad criticism, go to JGB. and yeah, thank you all again for listening. Really means a lot to us. And let's go Mets.