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Inside The Data: Fascinating Third Down, Starting Field Position Data For Eagles · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome to another inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher, and of course with us as always
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: is our data analytics expert Sam Finkel. Sam. The last
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: time we did a show the Eagles four and oh,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: they have since played two games and lost both, including
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: a loss that I did not have on my twenty
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: twenty five Eagles bingo card, a seventeen point defeat to
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: a Giants team that didn't have Molik neighbors. Let's go
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: deep inside the numbers here to see what everything is revealed,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: because I'm sure you are surprised to be doing this
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: show with me talking about two Eagles losses.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, when we originally talked about doing
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: the two and one, I thought it would be no
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: big deal. You know, we would be talking maybe might
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: have lost the one. But right, who is certainly surprising.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: So and there's a lot of things we can talk
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: about for sure.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Good. I'm sure the analytics and the data give us
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: some kind of story of why the Eagles are suddenly
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: looking like a very mediocre, if not bad team over
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: the last two I mean, you moved to a one
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: win Giants team. Things are not going well for you.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I think that that's pretty fair to.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Say, no doubt.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: All right, So we got the chart up here, and
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: the first thing we're gonna look at is just a
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: quick buy the numbers, basic stats against the Broncos. I
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: think what stands out here is, I think we alluded
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: to this last game or last episode, Sam, is that
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: even when the Eagles were four to oh, they were
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: getting out gained totally yards in every single game. Well
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: guess what it happened again?
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And another thing we talked about is a lot
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: of the ways that they won was not repeatable, right,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: And I think these are perfect examples of why it
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: wasn't repeatable.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, there was no field goal to block in this
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: one in return for a touchdown to win. But the big,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: the big one to me is the yellow box because
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: in all four the Eagles wins, first four wins, they
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: won the turnover battle and produced at least obviously one turnover.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: And what we'll see in this repetitive theme here of
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the last two games is a big goose egg.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: In that column.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, And by the way, the Broncos having one hundred
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: and twenty one yard in penalties and still you know,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: coming back from the deficit, that they came down fourteen
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: points is not a good look for the Eagles there.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: Quite frankly, they probably should have had more penalty yards.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: I'm sure the average fan Eagles fan would think that
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: as well, right, And the fact that they were still
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: able to persevere even with that many penalties is quite
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: a story in and of itself.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Yes, And one other thing. I don't think you might
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: have added it just for this episode intentionally or if
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: it was in the past basic stats I don't remember,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: but the average starting field position for the Eagles once
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: again kills them at twenty one point one. I mean,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: they are doing everything in their power to either muff
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: botch mishandle a kickoff or do something or even a
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: punt return. I think in this game against the Broncos,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: John Dotson was fair catching punts inside the five.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Uh, that that statistic I added, I think last
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: episode for the first time, because I think we talked
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: about it in like the first couple episodes, and I
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: think it's a really important stat because it does contribute
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: significantly to you know, wins, because it's one of the
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: things one of the key components to a win is
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: putting yourself in a position to score, so right.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Right, and then, of course one thing we always harp
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: on and was we want the very lopsided time of possession.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: The Broncos controllable for almost ten more minutes than the
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Eagles in that game.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: Absolutely so, as.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: We go on to the Giants game, uh not time
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: possession not as bad obviously, but turnovers just killer. The
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Eagles turn the ball over twice.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Her Giants first interception season, yep, and that.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Came out a terrible, terrible time and the Giants don't.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: So here's a clear indicator analytically, right, when the Eagles
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: win the turnover battle, they win the game. And their
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: first four wins were all by one position, so you
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: can see how important those takeaways are. You go two
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: games with that one, you lose both.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and then you look at the average starting field position,
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: and they really shot themselves in the.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Foot, really bad. Absolutely man, the Giants, boy, did they
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: have great field. I mean, you gave a team, right,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: the Giants who had no Molik Neighbors, no Darius Slayton
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: starting a rookie quarterback. Tracy was able to play, but
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: there was really just Cam Scadabho was the running back.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Another rookie and you know, just not an overall great offense,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: and you allowed them to start at the thirty five
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: On average, it's definitely and of course that skewed partially
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: because of the interception and there are other true things,
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: but on average, I mean it does you know that
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: puts some a position to score. Yeah, that being said,
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: I'm really glad you mentioned the average starting field position
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: because I did pull some more stats on average starting
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: field position, because the Eagles are the second worst in
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: the NFL an average starting field position. They are averaging
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: on their own twenty seven point two. Last year, just
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: for comparison, they were sixth in the NFL, sixth best
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: in the NFL at thirty one point seven. But as
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: everyone recalls, the you know, the kicking rules change, which
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: has some impact, but just so you know, the league
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: average is around thirty point four and last year it
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: was about thirty point one, so it hasn't really affected
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: them that much. But the Eagles have gone from the
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: starting on average the thirty one point seven to the
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: twenty seven point two and what does that reik? Again,
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: so it's second worse than the NFL this year, and
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: it was sixth last year.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: That is a precipitous drop, my friend. Good stuff, good
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: good stuff. Again, if you lose to in a row
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: compared to winning four in row, there's gonna be certain
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: things that are not even as I mean, everybody's talking
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: about the pass offense, Sa Barkley not running the ball,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: but things like time of possession, turnovers, and field position.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Starting field position was obviously huge, as you said to
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: the Eagles offense last year, because really, if you start
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: off at the thirty one thirty two like they're averaging,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: and you get one big run or one big pass,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: which the Eagles were a big play team last year,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: you already in field goal range. I mean it's just
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: that simple.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, And honestly, with the kick rules changing, it
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: should be in the favor of getting greater field position.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: So I think that this is even worse. I think
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: it's even more prominent because it's decreased so much, even
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: when the rules have changed to make it somewhat easier.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Oh and by the way, they give up two picks
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: for Tank Bigsby, who is supposed to be good at
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: that with these new rules, and first thing he does
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: and gets the Giants's botch a punt, or not only
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: botch it, but then take it out of the end
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: zone instead of taking a knee and then really putting
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: the Eagles deep in their own territory. That was just boneheaded.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: All right, let's look at the advanced stats. This is
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: the really good, juicy data and I love what you
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: got here. Again, we have what the Eagles average on
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: the season, and then what they averaged individually in these
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: advanced offensive data stats, both against Denver and against the Giants.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: And I don't think it takes rocket scientists, Sam as
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: you color coded this so well, to realize there's a
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: big whole lot of red blocks in that EPA area
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: for play, passing rush against the Giants. Man, that's bad.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah. It was the worst version of the Eagles offense
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: that we've seen this year. And honestly, it hasn't looked
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: particularly great all year, so that's really saying something.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Right, And it was pretty you know, obviously against Denver,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: they were right around where they're about for the year
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: for per play. A little bit better passing game because
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: you remember they were able to throw the ball a
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: little bit there for a while, but once again, the
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: rushing game really failed them, and to your point, it
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: was zero points zero zero on season average, so not
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: great to begin with.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so especially I believe this is the first time
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: that we're looking at this chart where the Eagles have
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: a negative EPA per play for the for the season. Yeah.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: If I recall, they were either right at zero or
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: they were on the positive side and every other episode
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: we've had so far, right, so these bad games are
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: really stacking up and starting to affect the season average.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Now I love that you a couple of weeks ago
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: sort of invented this sort of stat about taking the
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: difference between time to throw and then time to be pressured,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: and then taking the difference there to see what it
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: comes up with, because it tells a better story than
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: just one individually. And the one that really jumps out is,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: you know, obviously for the season, the minus zero point
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: one eight is their their average, which is good for them.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: You want to be in the negative. Oh no, no, no,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: that's not.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Let me let me yeah, go ahead, let me let
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: me backtrack on that.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: You want to be in the positive, right, but you
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: want to have more time to throw than obviously the
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: pressure the giant one where you what it basically says
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: is Herts had three point four to two seconds to throw,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: which is a pretty long time in the NFL, and
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: he was pressured, but he was being pressured at three
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: point one six is that seconds.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: So it's a little bit more nuanced than that. So
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: on average, they are similar stats in that they both
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: measure time. But time to throw is how long it
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: takes on average for quarterback to throw the ball, when
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: time to pressure is how long on average it takes
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: to be pressured. So it there obviously can be overlap, right,
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: So what it's saying is that Hurts held the ball
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: while he was being pressured. A negative number means you
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: were getting pressured on average by delivering the ball. A
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: positive number means you're pretty clean on average.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: So minus two point six, I would imagine, is a
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: pretty incriminating number. Like, you don't want to be in
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: that charactor. If you're minus point you know, one or
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: point zero five or something, you probably okay, but you
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: obviously you want to be in the plus. But minus
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: two point six or yeah, minus point twenty six seems
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: pretty bad.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it was, I believe the worst that they've
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: had this season. Hurts, it's it's almost indicative, and it's
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: fun to say because we're facing potentially Carson Wentz next week, right,
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: that it's hero ball, right, that this is the stat
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: to track hero ball, right. Right, If you're holding the
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: ball for that long, for you know, a quarter of
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: a second longer than it is to be pressured, I
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: mean that you are trying too hard to make plays
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: when there should have been easy answers, whether in the
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: scheme or just you're just missing things.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Right, That's what I would say for that, And what
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I forgot when I was trying to introduce the idea
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: of this that I forgot to kind of also add
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: the quarterback pressure rate into this, because the Giants only
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: pressured Hurts at eighteen point four percent. Correct, Yes, So
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: for him to only be pressured at eighteen point four
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: percent and have the ball be able to throw it
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: within three point four two seconds and not the offense
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: not be better just shows you that there's something wrong.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Unfortunately, the statistic is only a symptom and it
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: doesn't really diagnose what the problem is. We're gonna have
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: to talk a lot more in depth about that, but
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: it does show there is a problem clearly.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And the and same thing with the Broncos where
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: he took So he took six sacks. Two of them
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: were not just so we could tell the full story.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Two of them were not pass rush sacks. He actually
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: sort of ran out of a clean pocket, I thought,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: and then ran out of bounds. And I think he
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: didn't realize both times that he was short of the
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: line of scrimmage, because otherwise you could have just thrown
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: the ball out of bounds. There were receivers there. But
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: he wind up taking two quote unquote sacks because of it.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Nobody hit him or anything like that. They give it
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: to the closest defender. But the other four were legit sacks.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And the thing is that's interesting is that's where
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: I think this is the first time in the season.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Actually I know it is where the net time before
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: pressure is actually positive mm hm. So basically would it
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: be is he has he has clean pockets. He was
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: either just he just threw the ball faster than the
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: pressure got there, which is good. But then you see
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: six sacks and you're like, how do the how does
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: that even compute? And I'm glad you provided that context
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: because that explains it partially.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Right in both games, both losses, he had a better
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: time to throw than the season average, and in one
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: of the games he had with a very very low
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: pressure rate by the Giants. So that's not good. Like,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: that's where the that's where they say, like the data
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: doesn't match the expectation, right, because you'd normally think if
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: you have a nice clean pocket and time to throw,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have better passing stats.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And the thing is, I actually think the time
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: to throw is pretty interesting there, because it's just saying
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: that he's taking longer to throw in both of these losses, right,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: and when you're right the pressure, it's not coming as
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: fast as it was on average for the season. So
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: it's just I think it underscores exactly what you're saying.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: So thank you for bringing that up.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll add another qualifier that I think is important
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: for this. The time to throw could sometimes be skewed
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: by Jalen running around quite a bit and creating. He
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: has not ran in either of these two games as
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: significantly as he's run in the past, so these are
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: really more I think, pocket stats than they are skewed
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: stats by his running.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that or not, I.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Should say runing because when once he runs, it becomes
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: a but like when he's back there eluding and yeah, yeah,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: buying time is the word I was looking for. So
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: we focus on average separation, specifically with aj Brown last
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: episode and weird so against the Broncos worst separation, I think, Sam,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: that makes sense because of the personnel the Broncos have
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: on defense, especially in the secondary. Yeah, and so what
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: makes sense the separation is lower than average, And it
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: would also make sense the separation is higher than average
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: against the Giants the secondary.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: So again this is when the target is thrown too right.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: I think it's really interesting that even with more separation,
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: they just weren't able to find the successes, particularly against
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: the Giants.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Yes, agreed, agreed, And you know, so take the big
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Davante Smith catch over the middle, I think for twenty
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: four yards against the Broncos, there was not a lot
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: of separation on that. It was a really nice lead
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: throw by Jalen Hurts. But that goes to show you
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: a lot of the passes Hurts completed against the Broncos that,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: you know, when the pass offense did look good for
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit, he was making some pretty good throws there.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: He was leading guys, he was putting it where it
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: had to be, and then things kind of fell apart.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, the Sekwon Barkley discussion here. The run success not
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: good against Denver. You got the big old red mark
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: there of twenty seven point three percent better against the Giants,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: but kind of again skewed right because he didn't have
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: that many carries. I don't I think he was what
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: ten for sixty, No, No, he was ten for sixty
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: at a halftime. Didn't see too many carries in the
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: second half, So it's almost skew by the first two
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: or three runs that he had that were good, right.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: I know he had the big run to start the
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: game too.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, eighteen yards and then a thirteen yard or right
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: after it, So he bet he had. He had half
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: of his first entire first half total on the first
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: two runs.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: It looks like he was twelve for fifty eight.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah after the that was his final That's what it
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: looks like.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'm pretty sure he was ten for sixty
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: at a half time, so he was literally two for
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: minus two in the second half.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Not ideal of course. Now, and he shows up
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: in that stuff percentage I mean I was about to say.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: It sure shows up right right? Oh man, Hey, you
• 15:39
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• 15:41
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• 15:43
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• 15:46
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• 17:46
  Speaker 1: That's code birds for a risk free first stake. So here,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: how about this. The Broncos didn't stack the box at all.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: I was really hoping you would talk about that. That
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: is the most interesting thing for me. I think. Look,
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: people say, like the blueprint is out on the Eagles,
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: but they lost both these games in somewhat different ways,
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: And I think that's interesting. Like, I know that was
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: a big thing that was trending and people were saying
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: the Eagles are found out and this is how you
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: beat them. But it's a little concerning that there's multiple ways.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, it makes sense. I mean, there are multiple
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: ways to win football games, but not stacking the box
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: against Saquon I think shows that there's just not fear
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: in that unit. And I'm talking about the offensive line,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: I'm talking about the runner. There's just the Denver did
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: not fear them.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: No, But they sort of played it down the middle, right,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: because it's not like they had a lot of light
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: boxes at just eighteen point two, so they played a
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: lot of seven man boxes. I think they were in
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: nickel quite a bit and would bring a safety down
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: while the nickel was in coverage, or they sim pressured
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: a lot in the second But those are really passing stats.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, they sort of played They didn't leave
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: it completely light, but they certainly didn't bring in anybody
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: extra as artillery against the run. Yeah, the Giants did
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: a little bit more of that, right.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: And I think this is like the perfect time to
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: kind of shout out your article that you wrote about them.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: That was an incredible article as always, obviously the one,
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: the one where you were talking about, you know, they're
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: blitzing in the first half and then they really didn't
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: in the second half. And I think that also goes
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: into run defense too. They were giving these looks yet
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: still not stacking the box, but they were still pressure
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: esque looks.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Yes, I think more more so in the Broncos game.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: I suspect and I would man, I would love to
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: just have a sit down conversation with Todd Bowles and
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: then also not tables, I'm sorry the Broncos game with
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Joseph Dvance Joseph, yes, and then also with Bowen from
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: the Giants, and but I would really say to Vance,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: I'm like they were working that RPO game. Were you
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: trying to get them to continue it by by doing
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: what you were doing and then dropping everybody at the
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: last second, Because that seems like it was planned And
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: not only that, was that your whole plan going into
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: the game to blitz, give up a few if you
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: had to, you know, take the shot early, but then
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: totally confuse the offense in the second half.
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Fascinating. No, maybe I'll catch up with them at the combine.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: All these guys, if you catch up with these guys
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: at the combine after the season's over, they're very willing
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: to talk about like things that they did during the season.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: You know, some of them are.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: Particularly the ones that make them look kind of like
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: genius is I'm.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, yeah, I can. I can already I have to
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: figure out a way to ask the question about leading him.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: So he's like, yes, that was my plan and it
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: worked well. Good point as oppose now was just throwing
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: stuff against the wall. All right. The Jalen Hurts spray
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: chart here. This one's against Denver. All right, you have
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: a stat here that's phenomenal. Jalen Hurts attempted nine deep
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: passes of twenty plus or more yards second most of
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: his career. Ordinarily you would see that and say bombs away. Bit,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: this is where Jalen Hurts in the offense thrives. He
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: completes just two of them. Now, he still gets ninety
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: nine yards out a touchdown, But honestly, ninety nine yards
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: when you're throwing nine deep passes is probably not You
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: want way more than ninety nine yards out of that.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Of course, yeah, you would hope does the statu you
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: really show, probably more than anything, just how out of
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: whack the Eagles pass game is, because now you're taking
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Hurt his strength and on a day where he was
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: fairly good throwing the football, but not in his specialty,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: not down the field deep.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I mean I think you're absolutely right. They're
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: out of sync. There's a lot of issues, but execution wise,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: no one seems to be on the same page. All right,
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: maybe Dallas Goddard.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: But it's really it. Yeah, he has five touchdown catches.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: Nobody else has more than one. I mean I didn't.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: I did not have that one on my bingo card
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: either going into twenty.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Twenty five, particularly because we weren't even sure if he
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: would be on the roster.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Right, that's a good point. So Hurts had a plus
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: two point four completion percentage over expectation against the Broncos.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: What I know, he led the NFL in this category
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: last year.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: Yes, do you remember what the number was, h I
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: don't know off the top of my head.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Roundabout I mean it was I think it was thought
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: it was like in the double digits.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Was it was that eleven percent?
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So even being only plus two point four is
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: as good as that is. That's still low for him.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: It is low for him. But honestly, I've always found
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: this stat to be more of a complimentary stat and
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: not just for Hurts. I think it speaks to his
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: receivers as well, because you know, there it takes two
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: to make a catch happen. And one of the reasons
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Hurts just really good at it is because Hurts delivers
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: a good ball. But in particular, I mean, these receivers
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: make great catches like that. That's a huge in my opinion,
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: that's a huge part of it.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, fair enough. And by the way, were you really
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: about to catch yourself saying it takes you to make
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: a thing go?
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: It feels like you wanted to once you said it
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: takes two to I felt like a little stutter there,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: and I thought maybe you were you were going that direction.
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: I was not, but it was better it would have
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: and I was wrong. It was six point six percent actually.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Oh okay, but still off. I mean when you're at
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: plus two instead of plus six. Yes, a little bit
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: lower than normal, absolutely.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: But I just want to make sure I gave the
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: right information.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: You know, now against the giants again, God, this is
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: what's so strange. It's like, you know, you look at
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: twenty four for thirty three to eighty three. Yes there
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: was an interception, but again a positive completion over expectation,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: and you think that that's that should reflect at least
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: a decent offensive game, not the kind of one that
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: the Eagles had.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, And one thing before you go into the
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: zone and man part of it, I just you know
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: that the whole thing is that Hurts excels against man, right,
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's what we've seen historically, and it's just
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: so interesting that it was just not the case in
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: this game at all.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Right, So, after I wrote that wonderful article that you
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: mentioned about hers killing the blitz, killing man coverage, struggling
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: against zone. This is why football is such an unbelievable
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: sport and so unpredictable. Against the Giants, Hurts does he
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: slays it against zone eighteen for twenty one eighty six
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: percent completion percentage, which is like you know, and by
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: the way, part of that is just the Giants don't
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: have great defense, but still plus almost eleven cpoe. And
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: then tell the folk Sam what he did against the
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: man coverage.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: You know, but he did have his one touchdown, but
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: he also had his one interception, so very mixed bag.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: Look at the cpoe man minus you couldn't get more
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: extreme with the completion per centage over expectation for each
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: zone and man.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you're absolutely right. It is completely as you did
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: in one of your other articles, Jeckel and Hyde. I
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: mean that is literally although you were talking, I believe
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: you were talking more about their half performances and how
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: they were just completely different.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Well, at this point, if the shoe fits, you know everything.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: The Eagles are even the defense, right Jeckel and Hyde.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, they were pretty good against the Broncos up
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: until the last the fourth quarter, and then they're given up,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: giving up yard. So yeah, all right, speaking, that was
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: a good segue.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: Honestly, couldn't have written it better yourself.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: What jumps out at you most is we look at
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: the defense by the numbers, both on the season average
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: and against the Broncos and the Giants.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would say the thing that stands
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: out the most is there's still a good defense, right,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: I mean there's still you know that negative EPA per
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: play allowing the offense basically every play they're putting them
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: in a worse basi from the score doesn't mean they
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: don't score, because they did score, particularly in that Giants game.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, you look at the season average of minus
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: zero point zero six and then you look at zero
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: point two to one, right and for the Giants, and
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: you could say, well, you know, Q got hurt. You
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: could say all all these things that you know kind
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: of make up for it. But that's really inexcusable going
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: from you know, a negative EPA to a very positive EPA.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: So I think, if I'm going to put it all together,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: because these the boxes of red are in the same
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: categories for offense and defense for the same three against
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: the Giants EPA for play, pass and rush right m hm.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: So that's just a complete total team failure that on
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: both sides of the ball.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: Total. It was an embarrassing performance to say the least.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: And in a week, maybe a two week stretch where
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: you know, Philadelphia sports have been very tough, especially if
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: you're a Penn State fan like us, it's been a lot.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but that.
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: Was the icing on the cake. It was one of
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: the worst performances by both sides of the ball that
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: I've seen this team do in a long time.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, this team had won twenty of twenty one
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: games before at the end of our last episode, right,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: and now they've lost two in a row. So yeah,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: they have definitely not played nearly close to expectation, and
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: in that regard, wouldn't out go ahead.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: A loss, is it? I think is a good thing
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: for this team, because I think they needed some adversity
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: and they needed to figure out their problems. But yeah,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: the second loss, the carryover loss, it really does more
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: damage than good at this point. I think having the
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: extra days that the ten days before playing should help
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: and maybe it'll push them in the right direction. But
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: like those two losses in a row can have a
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: compounding effect, and I'm a little concerned about that.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I would tell you the first loss, you're right, it's
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: gonna happen. I always my favorite expression is when you
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: win a bunch of games in a row, or even
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: like a strict like twenty out of twenty one, and
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: the reality is you're getting closer and closer to your
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: next loss. Because nobody goes undefeated all the for years
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: and years. Nobody goes undefeated in a year. Right, It's
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: been done twice and really only one team has done
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: it all the way to the Super Bowl, so I
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: understood when they lost it. I didn't like think the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: world was the sky was falling. I would say the
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: significance of the Giants loss is that not only did
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: it really reveal some real cracks in the armor, but
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: now when you're the Lions, now, when you're the Tampa
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: Bay Bucks, now when you're the Commanders, right, everybody just
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: feels a little bit better about who they are compared
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: to the Eagles at the moment, and you let them.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: I don't want see you let them back in the
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: race because it's too early. But if they had won
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: both of the game, I mean you could be up
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: two or three games on some of these teams. Absolutely, yeah,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: you it just made the race a little tighter, especially
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: the way the Lions and the Bucks are playing.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: But do you think it's time to press the panic button,
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: the doomsday panic button. I don't think so either.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: I wrote on Sun on Saturday on Philly Voice that
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: you know, there's certainly some issues that have to be resolved,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: and some of the things are not things that they
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: can resolve just by better coaching or playing. And that's
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: the offensive line health, right, that might be a problem
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: for the rest of the year, who knows, But I
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: do think a lot of the issues they have elsewhere
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: can be corrected through just time. I think Kevin Patoole
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: needs By the way, I for the sake of this discussion,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: last year, through six weeks, they had four games in
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: which they scored like twenty or fewer points. They've actually
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: scored more points this year through six games than they
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: did last year. I think all the people saying Kevin
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Potole's fired, gotta go he stinks are revisionist historians because
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: they they're only remembering what they remember last which is
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl and the NFC Championship. But everybody was
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: supposed to be fired going into the bye week at
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: two and two, and even when they squeezed by the
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: who has the Browns and then the Jaguars, nobody was
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: happy with Kellen Moore in the offense either.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent. I think it's always premature at
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: this point, especially with a winning record, to try to
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: fire the offense or defensive coordinator at any point. But yeah,
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: and we'll talk a little bit more about that later.
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: But I don't think it's time to fire Patula.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: No, Well, no one's going to get fired six weeks, of.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: Course, but I don't think it's justified to say that
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: at this point.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Agreed, they got to work through some of these issues.
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: First one thing I want to highlight on this chart too,
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: is that my stat th net time before pressure for
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Jackson Dart.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: First off, I wanted to ask you about that because
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: it's staggering.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just want to say, first off, the time
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: to pressure was just they just were not getting there
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: on the defensive line. They just were not not fast
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: at least. And then you look at the sack percent
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: You're like, but they got more. It was a higher
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: sack percentage, and you look at the pressure percentage, it's
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: not terribly far off. But it just was taking them
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: a long time, and Jackson Dart was getting the ball
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: out fast. I mean, one of the things about Jackson
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: Dart is he has a quick release. That's a big
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: part of the allure of him, right, And when the
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: rush takes too long to get there and you're facing
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: a quarterback with a quick release, I mean, that's kind
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: of the result you're gonna get.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, do you think the time to pressure is
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit misleading? Because there were about he didn't
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: throw the ball a lot, and there were a couple
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: of times where he did do that thing like Hurts
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: does around the pocket, where he scrambled to the left
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: and scrambled the right and then found somebody at the
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: last second, where it doesn't mean that he was weren't
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: pressuring him. It just sort of felt like he was
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: buying time by being slithery.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: Even buying time and being slithery, I'd say, no, I'd
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: say that the pressure was taking a long time to
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: develop for I think that's a fair reason. Yeah, I
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: really feel like even when you're being slithery, there is
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: pressure like that that would count its point pressure, and
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: so they just weren't getting there in time.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: I would say, yeah, that's absolutely fair. And then sack
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: percentage obviously works because he did he'll stay around there
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: and you'll he'll take the hit. But he also does
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: make a he did run. He plays the game, especially
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: this part of his career right now as a rookie,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: kind of like the way Jalen Hurts played it.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: His absolutely yeah, absolutely, yeah.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: All right, the running game. What do you make of
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the run game numbers?
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, listens out right, Yeah, it really does. You look
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: at that run stuff percentage and you're just like, they
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: could not stop the run. And that's a lot of
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: what the Giants.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Did, yep, because that's all the that's the galling thing.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: All the Giants could do to even stay in this game,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: let alone win it was run. They have no receivers.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: The only thing I could do is run the ball,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: and they did, and the Eagles knew it was coming.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: They even stacked the box that as you have here
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: twenty almost you know, twenty eight percent of the time
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: compared to sixteen percent on their average. So they're way
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: up and stacking the box and yet they have I mean,
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: this is the biggest differential probably of the year between
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: run stuff again in a game versus your season average.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, I mean you're talking about.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: Ten percent of the season average and three percent against
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: the Giants. That's crazy.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. Could couldn't have said it better myself.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Now, is it also questionable that they also had a
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: lighter box against this team that could only run compared
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: to their season average?
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: So yes and no, you would say that it is questionable.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: But again Fangio likes to you know, only rush four
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: and that that's what he wants to do, right, And
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: in an ideal situation, I mean that works well. But
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: in this particular circumstance, no, it didn't work.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: It did not. It did not. There was a lot
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: of mistackles too. It wasn't just like there was least
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: widers and lanes to run through. All right, So real
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: quick on quarterback spray charts, this is Bonix had a
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: much better second half. And and again the Eagles got
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: to kick themselves. I mean, having a plus one point
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: zero cpoe is nothing beautiful, but it's at least it's positive.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: Listen, he was making throws an average quarterback, shit me,
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: and you can't lose to that. You shouldn't. As an
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: elite defense, you shouldn't lose to that. Now, do I
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: fault the Eagles for, you know, allowing only what was
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: it twenty one points? Or yeah, it was twenty one
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: to seventeen, right right, So do I fault them for
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: losing with twenty one points? I think that maybe go
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: more on the offense. Honestly, I mean I agree, but honestly,
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: you know, you don't want to lose to somebody that's
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: making throws an average quarterback could do.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: Right, Pe're make it a great point. If you give
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: up two hundred and forty yards to a quarterback and
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: just one touchdown in this day and age, that's that's fine. Like,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: that's not a great day for a quarterback, especially on
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: forty pass attempts.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So give us your notes on Nick's short game here.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he was extremely effective in short passes, which is
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: anything from zero to nine yards. He went thirteen for sixteen,
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: one hundred and thirteen yards and fortunately the game winning touchdown.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. Had some really nice connections to Courtland
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: something in the second half that I just thought was
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: like sort of good on good.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and nine for thirteen in play action, ninety nine
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: yards in the touchdown.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: So nice. And then Jackson Dart. I mean, these are
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: kind of whacky looking numbers that really don't touch Jackson
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Dart's passing stats are not going to tell a story here.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: No, I needed to put them there for consistency, of course.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Of course, one thing that is interesting is he was
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: pretty much the same against or not against the Blitz. Yeah,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: were not effective in anything that they did defensively in
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: this game.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Yep. By the way, the fact that they blitzed more
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: than didn't blitz the Eagles. Shows you that Vic was
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: out of his comfort zone there.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: He very much was one. And I'll just add you know,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: you can see that the stats are pretty much the same.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Ninety nine yard, ninety six yards, nine for thirteen, eight
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: for twelve, you know, one touchdown coming against the blitz u.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: He also added fifty eight rushing yards on thirteen to
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: ten attempts, including that rushing touchdown forty six yards on
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: KiB scrambles.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: So good stuff. All right, Umm, quickly here we've got
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: I like this play sequencing in situational struggles. So explain
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: this on the third down conversion stats you have here.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So first off, I just want to say that, like,
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: I think this is a really good way to diagnose
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: some of what's going wrong with the Eagles is looking
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: at what's going on in third down. Right, you look
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: at their third down conversion rate offensively, they were two
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: for eleven against Denver and one for nine against the Giants.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: You look at that and say that's terrible, like how
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: did that happen? And I think we could go into
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: the next chart and it'll say why. But let's just
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: for argument's sake, Let's look at the whole season. You know, offensively,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: they're twenty six for seventy five. That's a thirty four
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: point seven percent clip. In twenty twenty four they were
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: ninety eight for two thirty five. Right, that's forty one
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: point seven that's a pretty significant fall. Yes, you look
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: at their opponent at the same time, their opponents are five. Well,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: the Denver was five for sixteen mm hm, they're close
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: to a third uh and the Giants were eleven for sixteen,
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: almost at seventy percent, which is ridiculous. I mean, they
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: could not have played that beat unfortunately like that, but
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: that is not replicable for the Giants, Like you don't
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: imagine two weeks from now. That's not They're probably not
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: going to be at seventy percent third down conversion rate.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: You look at their opponents in twenty twenty five, it's
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: forty two point three percent, which is significantly higher than
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: last year, which was thirty five point five percent.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: Any comment on that because I do have a theory
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: on it, but I want to if you have anything
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: else you want to say about that.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: I think football is all it's like two things, right,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: it's turnovers, we already talked about in situational stats. And
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: when you see a team that Eagles play convert seventy
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: percent on third down and the Eagles convert eleven percent,
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: you're talking about sixty percent differential. Say no more. I
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: mean that you don't need any more evidence of a
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: full Again, it's not some games are like, well, the
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: offense didn't do it. Some games the defense don't do it.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: This one, as we showed with the red blocks and
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: EPA on both sides, it was just a total, complete
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: team failure. And you can throw the special teams in there,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: even though that's not reflected in third down stats. And
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: same thing with Denver a little closer. But you're playing
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: a playoff team, and so when you play a playoff team,
• 38:05
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• 40:37
  Speaker 2: You ready for my theory?
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Yes?
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: All right? So they Eagles are not putting themselves in
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: positions to be successful in their drives. Their sequencing is
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: not great. They're not getting themselves in positions to move
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: the sticks. And the best evidence for that is if
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: you look at their situational third down conversion statistics. You
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: look at third and short, they're seventy two point seven
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: percent the season, anytime they're third and one or third
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: and two, and you could say that's the bush push,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: right like that definitely adds to it. Their opponents are
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: seventeen for twenty six, that's sixty five point four percent.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: Their opponents are at twenty six third and shorts, they're
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: at eleven on the season.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: Oh man, that is a huge That is an amazing number, Sam,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: And that's an amazing.
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: Looking It cascades down right, So you would expect, you know,
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: it to go a little bit worse each of the time,
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: like you have more opportunities, But you look at it,
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: the Eagles go from eleven opportunities in third and short
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: to twenty three and third and mid and forty one
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: at third and long. And just before we even go
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: into the numbers of how they convert it, you look
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: at their opponent twenty six, third and short, twenty three
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: third and medium. You look at thirty for third and long,
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: they're almost uniform across the board. Look at the Eagles.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: They're in third and long almost every time, like crazy,
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: that is ridiculous.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: They are in third and long more than third and
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: short and third and mid combined.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: Yes right, yes, wow? So and to me like this
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: is not this goes, this transcends third down statistic. This
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: is why I love this little analysis because it also
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: talks about what did you do to get yourself in
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: that position. They are not using first and second down
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: effectively one hundred percent.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: This is something I wrote in that Philly Voice story
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: about diagnosing their issues. There's and I love the word
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: because I think I used it too, sequencing. What you
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: do on first down needs to set up what you
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: do on second down. What you need to do on
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: second down should set up what you do on third down.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: When you can marry your run, your intermediate pass game,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: and your deep pass game and have it all flowing,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: it looks like what the Eagles look like at times
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: last year. We know their offense is never always looking
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: like a masterpiece, but this year, really it just looks
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: like a toe stub followed by an ankle stub, you know,
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: like oor an ankle's frame. Really, it's a really.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: Good way to put it. I mean, listen, you look
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: at you can also caveat that a little bit because
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: sometimes they'll use third down to set themselves up the
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: fourth down, but there's in thirty long too much to
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: even do that.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Wow, this is incredible, good stuff, Sam.
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: Thank you. And these pie charts are just breaking that
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: down just so you can see visually what that looks like.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, fifty four point third and long. Yeah, and
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: then you look at their opponent, it's like, what is
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: it thirty eight percent? Yeah, thirty eight percent their opponent
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: and third and long.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: So they are in disadvantage situations way more than their
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: opponents as opposed to last year than.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: This is last year this pie chart, The next one
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: is last year's. No, they were forty six percent in
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: third and long and their.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Opponents have had more third and longs than they did. Yeah.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And you cannot consistently win football games if you're
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: putting yourself in that position.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: One hundred great stuff. That is awesome. Really quick, we'll
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: go to the lines, the offensive line, I think the
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: pass protection has been better than run blocking. What did
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: anything jump out at you here?
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So again I put the ranks for these and
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: I just needed, like I put a disclaimer there. Uh,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: they're actually going to be slightly better than what they
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: are because they have an extra game and maybe even
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: two games on some teams, the teams that have bye
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: weeks and stuff. So you know, especially pass blocking, those
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: stats when they aggregate, I mean, they're going to be
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: higher the more games you play, regardless of if you're
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: the best team in the league.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Or not good.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: So take that with a grain of salt. But you know,
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: they have allowed nine sacks, six hits, forty six hurries
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: for a total sixty one pressures. You know, I.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: Remember that allowing nine sacks is not always on the
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: offensive line, and a bunch of them are this year,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: are not.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: Correct, which would even make that better. I mean, but look,
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: they're twenty seventh in the league, and that they're probably
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: much better than twenty seventh. My guess is that I
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: bet they're probably closer to like twenty.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but to your point, it's more reflective. It is
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: reflective of an offense that's behind the sticks. But it's
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: to me that's Also, I don't want to put it
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: all on the old line. There's been a lot of blitzing,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: and sometimes it's on the running back, sometimes on hurts.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: It's just could be on a tight end left in
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: to pick up a certain guy. There's been a whole
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: amalgamation of reasons why that those nine sacks, and they're
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: not I don't think even half of them are on
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: the offensive line.
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: Agreed, Agreed, But I think the pressures are probably a
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: better indicator. Yeah, in general, and perhaps I should have
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: phrased this as just offensively, it's not necessarily on the line,
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: because you're right, those are really important points, but overall
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: as an offensive units, as the entire offense. You know,
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: sixty one pressures is twenty second in the league. They're
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: probably closer to sixteen when all else equal, Right, it's
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: just not what we've seen from this EOS offensive line.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: So I think that's worth saying. And again, they were
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: they were, they were twelve last year.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: So yes, I think center and left guard is hurting
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: them in a lot of those pressures. The health issues there.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: So that's just all I'd say about that.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Fair enough, and we'll just go as a defensive line
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: if we can.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: Do you want to do the rushing Oh yes, I'm.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Sorry, I just get right past it. Let's get both
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: Going on rushing stats, ye, yep.
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: So again the subject to change because of the amount
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: of games played is not equal. But they were one
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: hundred and sixty two attempts, five hundred and seventy two yards,
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: three point five yards per attempt, and eight touchdowns. You
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: look at these their yards basically they have their second
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: in attempts they were first last year and seventeenth in
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: rushing yards they were second last year.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: That is amazing to be second in attempts, in seventeenth
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: in total yards.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: And it's worse when you look at the yards per
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: attempt they're twenty ninth in the league. Wow, And that's
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: a that's a relative stat so that that's kind of static,
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: like that's just kind of what they are to the league, right,
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: which is.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Really Yeah, those are the ones that are the most
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: tell tale. The touchdowns are high there because of the
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: all the one yards there.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: Sure, but yeah, yes, that's that's what I'd say about them.
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: And then we can go right into the D line
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: run defense.
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, just like imagine having you know, sequon Barkley and
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: going from second to seventeenth in rushing yards and fifth
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: to twenty ninth in yards per attempt not ideal.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: And I think a lot of it is the health
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: and listen, for defense, we talk about pass rush all
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: the time, so and and honestly, they've struggled with it.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: It's not great statistics at all. They're not finishing on stats.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: But I thought it'd be more interesting to look at
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: run defense this time, just because we don't really talk
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: about it that much, because it's really hard to quantify,
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: particularly because when we talk about individual players. So let's
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: just talk about the run defense as a unit. And honestly,
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: I think again it's it's not just the D line.
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: It's obviously at the entire defensive units. It's probably a
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: better way to phrase it, like I said before, is
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: like kind of how you mentioned it should just be
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: the defense in general. Let's just think of it from
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: that context. Sure, they have the most rushing attempts against
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: them in the league, and that is going to be
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: skewed again because they have one or two more games
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: on everyone else in the league at the point of
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: recording right now, right but again, I mean that's just
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: showing that they're they're getting run on. They were twenty
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: six last year. You look at those rushing yards eight
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: hundred sixt's thirty first in the league. They were tenth
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: last year.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: And you look at those yards per attempt four point seven,
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: there's twenty fourth in the league and they were ninth
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: last year.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: To me, that's the biggest it could because that's the
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: average now and we're not talking about inflated numbers. By
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: playing that extra game. To go from ninth to twenty
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: fourth shows you they're looser there.
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And you know what's interesting from rushing touchdowns, they
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: allowed nine last year, they already allowed eight this year.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Wow. Wow, that's really fascinating stuff.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: So, man, that is quite the story that we've told
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: here through the numbers in the analytics. The stuff that
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: really hits is what you were brought to light on
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: third down just a number of third and lungs that
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: they faced, and then their starting field position. I mean,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: if you're looking for two things that don't just jump
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: out in the box score that you have just brought
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: to light over the long haul, especially with the third
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: downs that are really problematic, that is it right there?
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: So Sam, wonderful job. Appreciate it. Maybe when we do
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: this again next week we'll have a little bit more
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: of a better out come. We'll see the Eagles have
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: to play the Minnesota Vikings for that and then so
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: we'll have a show after that as well. All Right,
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: So that is going to do it for Inside the
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: Data here on Inside the Birds again, big thanks to
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: Sam Finklan all the hard work that he's been doing
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: for Sam. I'm Jeff Mosher. Catch you all on the
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: next one.