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Episode 65 - 6/27/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to. Episode 65 of the All Systems.
• 0:24
  Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week is almost over the
• 0:39
  weekend. I can see it guys.
• 0:40
  It's right here ahead of. US.
• 0:42
  But we got a lot. To talk about on today's podcast
• 0:45
  because I have a 5 pack of sweats that I'm excited.
• 0:48
  To share with you, including four Major League Baseball bets.
• 0:51
  Two of which are day sweats. So we want to.
• 0:53
  Talk about those early. Get those in SO.
• 0:55
  If you want to get down. On these these kind of.
• 0:57
  Late afternoon match ups here. I hope we can get those in and
• 1:00
  get some winners early and start.
• 1:01
  Our day off right and then going to finish up.
• 1:03
  The pot with AWNBA. Bet.
• 1:06
  That's right, We got one bet in the WNBA.
• 1:08
  And I'm looking at a. Total that is on the.
• 1:10
  Rise has a great system match. Good pace, good offense, bad
• 1:13
  defense. I'm hoping this thing flies
• 1:15
  over, so I'll share with you guys today.
• 1:18
  That WNBA play here. For tonight, now looking back to
• 1:21
  her last. Night we got after it.
• 1:22
  How? About a nice little four in one
• 1:24
  plus. Two point O3 unit night, you
• 1:26
  love to see it. Had a couple good hits there in
• 1:29
  Major League. Baseball, First off.
• 1:30
  The Angels came through for the team.
• 1:32
  That was a. Bit of a sweat.
• 1:34
  Because angels were down 1. Nothing much of the game then.
• 1:36
  Broke it open late. 1/5 to two. Remember, they got steamed up.
• 1:39
  Around -115 up to around -135. Then had a great hit.
• 1:43
  With the New York Mets guys when?
• 1:45
  You look up in the sports betting dictionary or the
• 1:48
  Everything Guide to sports betting book.
• 1:50
  Written by a very, very sharp author, I must add.
• 1:53
  And you go to the. Section on reverse line
• 1:55
  movement, RLM. There's going to be a.
• 1:56
  Picture right there of the Mets from last.
• 1:59
  Night that was, Absolutely. Picture perfect textbook Hall of
• 2:02
  Fame reverse line movement. Remember, RLM is when the
• 2:05
  betting line. Moves away from the.
• 2:07
  Popular side getting the majority of bets.
• 2:09
  And toward the unpopular. Side getting the minority of.
• 2:11
  Bets so the. Perfect example last night was.
• 2:14
  The fact that the Yankees were a huge public play getting.
• 2:16
  Nearly 90% of bets. Yet the Yankees open -140.
• 2:20
  Got bet down to like -120 So why was the line?
• 2:23
  Going away from the Yankees. If everyone and their mother was
• 2:25
  on the Bronx Bombers, well tells us that smart money was on the
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  Mets and the Mets. Came through and didn't.
• 2:30
  Really have to sweat that one the only.
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  They won 12 to two. The only sweat you had was would
• 2:34
  the game be rained out because they had.
• 2:36
  A rain delay, I think. In the was the.
• 2:38
  The middle of the 5th. And you got a complete 5 to have
• 2:40
  a have a an official game here. But anyway, good night and MLB
• 2:43
  two and one. Only loser there was the
• 2:45
  Cleveland Baltimore. Over.
• 2:47
  I was kicking myself. Because I saw the juice.
• 2:48
  Flip it was nine juiced up under so couldn't get that one, but
• 2:51
  two in one. MLB will take it, but I buried
• 2:53
  the lead. How about some?
• 2:55
  NBA Draft. Data-driven information based
• 2:58
  bets. Two and O baby, that's right, we
• 3:01
  got it. Two and O remember.
• 3:03
  Our whole kind of plan of attack when?
• 3:05
  It came to the NBA. Draft very.
• 3:07
  Similar to the NFL. Draft and hopefully I kind of.
• 3:09
  Explained to you why betting on these?
• 3:11
  Drafts can be so profitable because you don't have to know
• 3:13
  all the players. You don't need to know, you
• 3:15
  know. Their three-point shooting
• 3:16
  percentage or their strengths and weaknesses?
• 3:18
  All you got to. Know and monitor is the line.
• 3:20
  Movement across the marketplace, so our guy Collier.
• 3:24
  Collier over 20 1/2. Came through.
• 3:26
  Collier ended up being drafted, I want to say. 29th but
• 3:30
  remember. We we had Collier open up at 18.
• 3:32
  And a half draft position and then got bet up to 20 1/2 and
• 3:35
  not. Only did it rise two spots, but
• 3:38
  it was. 20 1/2 over at -160. Five and that really aligned
• 3:42
  perfectly with our guy Jonathan Giovanni.
• 3:44
  So I want you guys. To remember that name.
• 3:45
  Jonathan Giovanni. This guy was.
• 3:48
  Super, super sharp and we're going to use him moving forward
• 3:50
  because Giovoni again predicted him, I think 26.
• 3:53
  And he went 29th. So Giovoni is someone.
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  We can lean on moving. Forward who's pretty accurate
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  knows knows these prospects and is very dialed in.
• 4:01
  To what the teams are telling him.
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  And then Tyler Smith also got the over on Smith.
• 4:05
  Remember Tyler Smith opened at I want to say what was it, 27 1/2
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  got bet up to 20. 8 1/2 juice to the over Giovoni had him going
• 4:13
  30. 6th and he was not even drafted on night one.
• 4:16
  So poor kid probably thought he was a.
• 4:18
  First round pick. Sorry buddy.
• 4:20
  You can maybe have a good NBA career, but.
• 4:21
  Last night we nailed You're Over.
• 4:23
  So Tyler Smith wasn't even drafted.
• 4:25
  Which is great to see. So nice little.
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  Two and O. In the NBA Draft.
• 4:29
  With Collier and with Tyler Smith both hitting.
• 4:32
  And. Remember, we did talk about an
• 4:34
  Xacta researcher, SAR and shepherd. 123.
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  But remember, we had Shepherd and Klingon kind of a little.
• 4:40
  Bit tight I believe. Movement.
• 4:41
  Was breaking towards Shepherd, so if you got.
• 4:42
  Down on that. Exacto 123 around like -1. 60
• 4:46
  you might. Have cashed that one as.
• 4:47
  Well, but either way guys. Great night, 4:00 and 1:00. +2
• 4:50
  point O3 units. Let's see if we can keep it
• 4:52
  rolling and get our winning streak.
• 4:54
  Going here for tonight, so without further ado.
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  Because we got someday sweats. Here to talk about baseball.
• 4:59
  Let's get right to it. Four MLB plays.
• 5:02
  And then we'll talk some. WNBA so.
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  First one on the board, 3:40 PM Eastern Time, Minnesota.
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  Twins and the Arizona Snakes and I noticed a big.
• 5:10
  Sharp reverse line move. Or not a reverse line of
• 5:12
  basically a 5050 move dog to fave in.
• 5:14
  Favor of. The Twinkies Give me the twins
• 5:17
  here guys. I'll give you the breakdown.
• 5:18
  This is. Basically around a -, 110 price.
• 5:20
  You may have even gotten like a -. 1 O 5:00 on.
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  Minnesota basically a pick em. And then it shot up toward
• 5:25
  Minnesota right before I. Got the pod going which.
• 5:27
  Is a great sign 'cause that was the side that I was leaning.
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  On. But anyway, this is the rubber.
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  Match of a three-game. Interleague series.
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  The Diamondbacks are. 39 and 40. One they won the opener 5:00 to
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  4:00. As a + 110 home dog.
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  Then the twins were 44 and 36. They bounced back with.
• 5:41
  An 8. To three win yesterday, cashing
• 5:44
  as a -, 120. Five Rd.
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  Favorite so in. This late afternoon series
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  finale. We have the Twins going with
• 5:49
  righty David Festa. He is making his Major League
• 5:52
  debut now I. Always think it's fascinating
• 5:55
  when a guy gets called. Up and makes his debut because
• 5:58
  he's never pitched in the big leagues.
• 5:59
  What is the immediate sharp money move?
• 6:01
  Like does the line. Fade that kid getting called up
• 6:03
  because he's in over his head, he's going to get lit up.
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  Or is the move in favor of the kid getting called up because
• 6:08
  maybe he's a good pitcher? Or.
• 6:10
  Probably the more likely scenario.
• 6:11
  Is that you know the. Opposing team has never seen.
• 6:13
  Him before, so that's an advantage to the pitcher.
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  Over the hitters Hitters get an advantage the more they see a
• 6:19
  pitcher 'cause they kind of know what to.
• 6:20
  Expect. So the first thing I noticed,
• 6:23
  and by the way, Festa is going up against Jordan Montgomery
• 6:25
  today, who's six and four, 5.71 ERA Festa by the way.
• 6:30
  Was decent. In.
• 6:31
  Triple A3 and 2/3. .77 ERA but the first thing I noticed.
• 6:35
  Is that the public? Is split down the middle they.
• 6:37
  Don't know where to go here. Arizona's at home.
• 6:39
  But yet Minnesota has a better record.
• 6:41
  It's basically a pick em game. What do we do?
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  Public is undecided but. We've seen this line move.
• 6:45
  Toward Minnesota Bigley in the spot this game actually opened
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  Arizona around a -, 120 modest short home favorite and.
• 6:53
  When I wrote about this game for the Vesan.
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  Dot com Sharp report which I tweet out how you can follow it
• 6:57
  around noon time for my Twitter account at Josh under Score
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  Insights. This was basically it turning
• 7:02
  into a pick em game it. Was like Minnesota like -110
• 7:06
  basically Arizona -110 some shops are -1 O 5 both sides, but
• 7:11
  the fact that. It was 5050 on the middle.
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  You know, we always. Talk about 5050 line moves.
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  What does that mean? It means that.
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  When the tickets are split down the middle.
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  Not the money, just the tickets. Tells you where the.
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  Public is when the public's undecided.
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  Split down the middle. Theoretically, a line shouldn't
• 7:25
  move at all, because basically you have even.
• 7:27
  Action both sides. There's no reason to adjust the
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  number. However, tickets and money are.
• 7:32
  Completely different, even though the.
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  Tickets are split. Big money is is basically an
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  evidence of big money. The fact that you have 5050, yet
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  the line is moving because theoretically it shouldn't move.
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  So even though it's 5050 bets, we can tell that the big
• 7:45
  majority of money is going Twinkies here because the line's
• 7:47
  moving in favor of Minnesota, even though it's an even split.
• 7:50
  Look at the Twins. In this spot.
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  Basically a sharp dog to pick them and now a dog to fave line
• 7:55
  move. I want to fade Montgomery.
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  He's he's basically. Has a six. .55.
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  ERA at home versus 4.8 O on the road and the twins did you guys.
• 8:03
  Know the twins are the. Number one team in baseball.
• 8:06
  Hitting wise against left-handed pitchers, they're hitting two.
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  77 against southpaws, number one in baseball.
• 8:12
  Also, let's just look at. You know, recent performance
• 8:14
  here in Minnesota, six and four in their last 10.
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  They're hitting 30. One with a 390 ERA.
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  Arizona's five and five, their last ten with a batting average.
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  Of 246 ERA. Of 5.17 and now that.
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  Basically, we have Minnesota as the favorite here we are now
• 8:30
  seeing. I haven't seen one.
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  Shop like -1. 15 Minnesota. I love this that they're going
• 8:34
  dog to fave. But that would now match with a
• 8:36
  bunch of other systems. Short Rd. favorites -130.
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  Or less, 55% this season, 3%. ROI and Minnesota.
• 8:43
  Twins also been really good as a chalk favorite when Minnesota.
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  Is expected to win. Typically, they're winning.
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  The Twins are on the year 35 and 20.
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  As a favorite, that is the. 6th best favorite.
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  In Major League Baseball, so I liked it when they were
• 8:56
  basically a dog. To a pick em I love.
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  That they're a dog to. A fave.
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  I'm on the Twinkies, hopefully to start today.
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  This is a 3:40 PM Eastern Time first pitch.
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  I got Minnesota around -1 O 7, now you're looking at around
• 9:06
  -110 -, 115. Let's go Twinkies.
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  Keep cruising a very. Similar line move.
• 9:12
  Very fishy. Reverse line move play for
• 9:14
  another. Early game today, 3:40. 5:00 PM
• 9:17
  Eastern Time. The cubbies.
• 9:18
  And the San Francisco Giants now going into this one.
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  This is the 4th. Game 4th and final game.
• 9:24
  Before game series, the Giants. Who come in 39 and. 42 They've
• 9:28
  won the 1st. Three games, so they're.
• 9:29
  Looking for a sweep here. Cubs, obviously.
• 9:31
  Looking to avoid that sweep, but the Giants won the opener 5:00
• 9:34
  to 4:00 as a. Plus one O 5 home dog.
• 9:36
  They won the second Game 5 to one as a -, 130 home favorite.
• 9:40
  Then they won again last night, four to three as a -, 110
• 9:43
  basically. Pick and play.
• 9:44
  So for tonight's series. Finale, we have the Cubs.
• 9:48
  Who are 30? 7 and 44 they're going to go
• 9:50
  with. Lefty Shota in Managa.
• 9:51
  His numbers are still good overall, 7:00 and 2:00. 2.96.
• 9:55
  ERA. But remember, his ERA was like
• 9:56
  one for much. Of the year, so he actually got.
• 9:59
  Lit up his last time out I think.
• 10:00
  Gave up ten earned runs. But the Giants are.
• 10:02
  Going with righty Jordan Hicks, who's four and four, they 3.24
• 10:06
  ERA now what have we seen across the board?
• 10:09
  Well, the line's falling away from.
• 10:10
  Chicago towards San Francisco. Or basically becoming a pick em
• 10:13
  game and even. Hopping the fence dog to fave.
• 10:16
  In favor of San Francisco, again, if you like Minnesota,
• 10:19
  you like San. Francisco today.
• 10:20
  And vice versa. But this game opened the cubbies
• 10:23
  running -115 road favorite he basically had.
• 10:26
  San Fran run a - 1 O 5 home dog and the public is saying.
• 10:30
  Hey, I know these. Teams are both below 500, you
• 10:32
  know. But the Cubs, basically, there's
• 10:34
  no way they can. Lose four in a row.
• 10:35
  Right, they got at least avoid a sweep and get one win here.
• 10:39
  However, even though you're getting.
• 10:40
  Nearly 2/3 of. Bets on the Cubs?
• 10:42
  64. Percent of money Line bets on
• 10:44
  Chicago. The line's going away from the
• 10:46
  Cubs in favor of the San Francisco Giants, because we've
• 10:49
  seen the Cubs, basically. At -115 now fall to like -110 -,
• 10:54
  1 O 7. We're basically becoming a pick
• 10:57
  em game even though the public is all over the Cubs, so that
• 10:59
  tells. US smart money has come here.
• 11:01
  Come down on the San Francisco Giants.
• 11:04
  Now the Giants are contrarian, only getting less than 40% of
• 11:08
  bets in this spot. But also like the Giants offense
• 11:10
  in this. Situation.
• 11:11
  They're hitting 245 on the year they've scored 350.
• 11:14
  Five runs the. Cubs are only hitting 2:30 with
• 11:17
  334. Runs scored and home Rd.
• 11:19
  Splits are are. Big in the spot.
• 11:21
  The Cubbies, We all know they're great at Wrigley Field.
• 11:24
  They're not good on the road this year.
• 11:25
  They're only 15 and 26 on the road.
• 11:27
  The G men are 23 and 17 at home, so they've been good at home.
• 11:31
  And Imanaga, I mentioned him. Earlier, at one point, he was
• 11:34
  the favorite for the Rookie of the year.
• 11:35
  He's got an area of 6. In.
• 11:38
  In four June starts, he's given up 18.
• 11:39
  Runs in 21 innings. And also let's look at the G
• 11:42
  men. Always want to look at when
• 11:45
  you're looking at a. Lefty for either side.
• 11:47
  How does that team hit lefties 'cause you see a lot of
• 11:49
  discrepancies left first, right? Well, guess what?
• 11:52
  This is a good sign for the Giants.
• 11:53
  Today, they're hitting 267 against lefties this season.
• 11:57
  That's the 4th best batting average against southpaws also.
• 12:01
  Hicks been pretty good at home. 2.68 ERA at.
• 12:04
  Home versus 3.68 on the road. But basically we went from.
• 12:08
  Chicago a very short favorite to now a pick.
• 12:10
  Em game even though. Everyone's betting on Chicago
• 12:13
  tells me. We got smart money on the.
• 12:15
  G Men. So let's go Giants shop round.
• 12:18
  I got the Giants around -1 O 5. Maybe even might be able to.
• 12:21
  Shop around, get like a - 1 O3 but let's.
• 12:24
  Go G men. Next one up 7. 45 to 45 PM
• 12:28
  Eastern Time tonight, the red. Legs visiting the Saint Louis
• 12:31
  Cardinals. I like this.
• 12:33
  Steam move in favor of. Saint Louis I'm on Saint Louis
• 12:36
  guys around -1. 40 This is the opener of a three-game.
• 12:39
  Set the Reds who are. 37 and 43. They just lost two or three
• 12:43
  against the Pirates. They lost yesterday 6:00 to 1:00
• 12:46
  as a -, 135 home. Favorite flip side?
• 12:49
  The. Cardinals don't look now they.
• 12:50
  Were bad all year. They're actually.
• 12:52
  Playing very well over the last month or so.
• 12:54
  They're right now above 500. The Cardinals are. 41 and 38.
• 12:58
  They just took two of three against the Braves.
• 13:00
  They won the 2nd. Game of yesterday's doubleheader
• 13:02
  basically split the doubleheader but won the finale 4 to one as a
• 13:05
  plus one O 5 home dog. So pitching match up tonight,
• 13:08
  the Reds are going with the. Lefty Andrew Abbott, who's six
• 13:11
  and six with a 3.4. OERA Cardinals, meanwhile.
• 13:14
  Go with writing Miles Michaelis, who's six and six with a 4.68
• 13:18
  ERA. What have we seen across the
• 13:20
  market here? Well, pretty standard Sharp.
• 13:22
  Steam move in. Favor of the Cardinals Cardinals
• 13:25
  open this game around a -, 130 Home favorite Now the Cardinals
• 13:29
  are up to around -140 So when we're looking.
• 13:31
  At Steam, it's really $0.10 or more that we get excited about.
• 13:34
  We've seen that Steam hit Saint Louis.
• 13:36
  In this situation, Cardinals are only getting 60. 3% of bets,
• 13:39
  it's not like. They're getting 80.
• 13:40
  Percent, 90%, so tells me that it's kind of a pro and Joe.
• 13:45
  Or maybe less, Joe. But more pro based on that line
• 13:47
  move. In favor of the.
• 13:48
  Cardinals. Cardinals also have correlative.
• 13:50
  Betting favorite low total. They're a favorite of minus. 140
• 13:54
  total of. 7 1/2 it actually opened. 8 1/2 There's a lot of
• 13:56
  under money that came in but the total is dropping.
• 13:59
  Good sign for a favorite because correlative betting basically.
• 14:02
  You know the thought process there is, you know fair amount
• 14:04
  of expected run scored more likely.
• 14:06
  To come from quote UN quote the better team who's expected to
• 14:09
  win. And recent performance.
• 14:10
  Cardinals are playing really well.
• 14:12
  They're seven and three over the last. 10 games, they're hitting
• 14:14
  269 with a three. .7 OERA The Reds are only three and seven
• 14:19
  over the last 10. They're hitting 237 with a 4.34
• 14:22
  ERA. Saint Louis, by the way, Home
• 14:24
  Rd. splits favor the Cardinals tonight.
• 14:26
  They're. 22 and 16 at home since he is 17.
• 14:29
  And 20 on the road. And Michael is even though his
• 14:31
  numbers. Overall aren't.
• 14:32
  Great 4.68 ERA. He has a 2.49 ERA in the month
• 14:36
  of June. Four starts.
• 14:38
  He's only given up seven runs and 25 innings pitched, and the
• 14:41
  Cardinals are 6. And two and Michaelis's.
• 14:43
  Last eight starts, this is. Probably a pretty obvious bet
• 14:47
  because we got a good steam move.
• 14:49
  Bunch of system matches. There's also a system I was
• 14:52
  looking. At again.
• 14:53
  Favorite one? The total falls. 60% this
• 14:55
  season. I'm going Cardinals.
• 14:57
  Let's go St. Louis, I got the Cardinals at
• 15:00
  -140. Keep on cruising.
• 15:02
  Here's a game that. I've kind of had my eye on all
• 15:05
  day. And I was like, man, I really
• 15:06
  want to take this team, but I just haven't seen.
• 15:08
  Enough line movement to warrant the the wager and then.
• 15:12
  Wouldn't you know it boom, they got hit with some steam so.
• 15:15
  I'm talking about the. Cleveland Guardians visiting the
• 15:17
  Kansas City Royals. Now going into this match up, we
• 15:21
  all know the Guardians. They are damn good.
• 15:23
  I don't know how they do it, but they keep doing it.
• 15:25
  And Steven Vogt, I think is their new manager.
• 15:27
  He's doing a great. Job, but anyway they're. 51 and
• 15:30
  27, they just took two or three against Baltimore, Kansas City.
• 15:35
  44 and 38, They just took two or three against Miami.
• 15:39
  So for the pitching match up tonight, we have Ben.
• 15:41
  Lively going for Cleveland. He's 7 and.
• 15:44
  Three with a three. Point O3 ERA.
• 15:46
  He'll be opposed by Michael. Waka, who's 4:00 and 6:00?
• 15:48
  With a four point O 7 ERA, what are we seeing across the market
• 15:51
  here? Well, it was basically Cleveland
• 15:54
  like -110. -115 all morning. And then I.
• 15:59
  Just saw him shoot up at some shops to like -120.
• 16:01
  So I was kind of waiting on some movement toward Cleveland.
• 16:04
  And finally got it. So tells me you do have some
• 16:06
  respect. To money hitting Cleveland, this
• 16:07
  is just a great value play I'm going to give.
• 16:09
  You a stat and a second that just.
• 16:10
  Screams. Cleveland here today, but
• 16:13
  they're getting around 75% of bets, 80% of dollars.
• 16:16
  If you look at the offense of these teams, really a little bit
• 16:20
  edge here toward Cleveland. They're hitting two 4592 homers,
• 16:23
  394 runs scored versus KC hitting 243 with. 79 homers and
• 16:28
  300. And 72 runs scored.
• 16:30
  But in particular, a lot of system matches on Cleveland.
• 16:33
  Favored off a loss versus. Opponent off a win. 61% this
• 16:36
  season. 4% ROI. Winning team was favored off a
• 16:39
  loss. 61%. Short Rd.
• 16:42
  Favorite sweet spot? -130 or less 55% and then in.
• 16:45
  Particular when you get to Cleveland.
• 16:47
  They're great as a chalk. Favorite Cleveland as a
• 16:49
  favorite? They're 35 and 14 this year, 71%
• 16:53
  with a 25% ROI. But here's the the kicker.
• 16:56
  When they are a. Quote UN quote, value favorite.
• 16:58
  And by value I mean they're basically laying a short price.
• 17:01
  Cleveland when they're -130 or less.
• 17:03
  As a favorite. 21 and 678 percent, 44% ROI.
• 17:08
  They're seven and three, their last ten hitting 277.
• 17:11
  Casey's only three and. Seven, their last ten hitting
• 17:14
  $1.78. And we have seen lively.
• 17:17
  ERA of round three. Which is pretty good, but
• 17:19
  Cleveland 7:00 and 2:00. In his last nine starts.
• 17:23
  Excuse me? So add it all up.
• 17:24
  I was like, hey. You know I like the price on.
• 17:27
  Cleveland, but it seems fishy the line had.
• 17:29
  Moved pretty much all morning, then boom, we had that line
• 17:31
  movement toward Cleveland. So that told me, hey, it's worth
• 17:33
  a shot to take the Guardians. At a very short price.
• 17:36
  So I'm on the guardians again shop.
• 17:38
  Around but I got. Cleveland at -115.
• 17:41
  So Minnesota, San Francisco, Saint Louis and Cleveland, can
• 17:45
  we get? Three out of four.
• 17:47
  That would be fantastic. Now over to the WNBA because
• 17:51
  it's a big day in the WNBA. There's four games overall and I
• 17:55
  found a system match for you. It is a late game. 10:00
• 17:58
  Eastern. Time tonight between the Indiana
• 18:01
  Fever and the Seattle Storm. So, Indiana fever, first thing.
• 18:05
  That comes to mind. Caitlin Clark.
• 18:07
  I'll be honest, I haven't sweat a full Caitlin Clark.
• 18:10
  Game this year, so I'm very much looking forward to it now the
• 18:12
  line has moved away from the Fever.
• 18:14
  The storm opened up like -7 1/2. They're up to like -9 even 9 1/2
• 18:18
  at some shops. Going into it.
• 18:20
  Fever are 7 and 11. Storm are 10 and six.
• 18:23
  But the fever, actually. I want to say they've won like
• 18:26
  six of the last seven. They're playing pretty well as
• 18:28
  of recently, but I'm going to focus on the total in this one
• 18:31
  I'm going to root for. Points.
• 18:33
  Give me the fever. Storm over or over.
• 18:36
  As you like to say. Over 167 1/2 now.
• 18:39
  This total opened up at 160. 6 1/2 So right off the bat we did
• 18:43
  see this thing creep up to 167 I.
• 18:46
  Make sure you shop around. I see a 168 out there.
• 18:49
  I even saw some shops inch up closer to like. 170 and.
• 18:52
  Then come back down a little bit.
• 18:54
  So pretty much. Based off the opener, all
• 18:56
  movement liability has been toward the.
• 18:57
  Over pretty good bet split. To the over at DraftKings only
• 19:01
  60. Percent of bets but 75% of money
• 19:04
  is on this over. So pretty good.
• 19:06
  Low bets, higher dollars bet split.
• 19:08
  And then here's the kicker. This has been the the winning
• 19:12
  formula here when it comes to totals.
• 19:14
  I call the system overs on the rise.
• 19:16
  So basically. Take the over when the total is
• 19:18
  rising at. Least a full point off the
• 19:20
  opener, so when the total. Rises at least a full point off
• 19:23
  the opener. The over is 25 and. 14 this
• 19:27
  year, 64. Percent with a. 23% ROI.
• 19:31
  These teams have played two games so far.
• 19:32
  This year, the first one they combined to score 168.
• 19:35
  The last one they combined to score 191.
• 19:38
  So hopefully we get. A lot of offense here tonight.
• 19:42
  We have the Fever averaging 81 points a game.
• 19:44
  Seattle's averaging 82 points a game.
• 19:46
  That's. Both top.
• 19:46
  Six in the WNBA. And in particular the the
• 19:50
  Cleveland, I think. Here I am.
• 19:52
  Thinking of the Guardians again. The Indiana Fever, they are
• 19:56
  terrible defensively. They're giving up nearly 90
• 19:59
  points a game. Which is dead last in the WNBA.
• 20:02
  Pace favors. And over here as well, Seattle
• 20:05
  is the number two fastest. Paced team in the WNBA.
• 20:09
  You would have a dog. Who can score system match on
• 20:11
  the? Over as well with a fever.
• 20:12
  Who can? Get up and down the court and
• 20:13
  score and then offensive rating. They're both top six as well.
• 20:18
  But really, what jumped? Out to me is a good bet split.
• 20:20
  The totals rising and that. Really really good system.
• 20:23
  We like overs that rise at least half point.
• 20:25
  Or at least a full .64%. To the over this season.
• 20:29
  So you add. It all up.
• 20:30
  It's a late game 10. O'clock I am very.
• 20:32
  Excited to watch the presidential debate tonight.
• 20:35
  Biden versus Trump. I'm not going to tell you who
• 20:37
  I'm. Rooting for Because once you
• 20:38
  talk politics, everything goes. To crap, but probably halfway.
• 20:41
  Through the. Debate, I think it starts at
• 20:42
  9:00. I'm going to turn on.
• 20:44
  Fever and storm. And and and hopefully sweat a
• 20:47
  lot of points in that one because it's a 10:00 game.
• 20:49
  So fever and storm. FIVA Storm over 167 1/2.
• 20:55
  Now I want to mention. One thing in particular, Rhythm.
• 20:58
  Rhythm, rhythm, rhythm, rhythm, rhythm, rhythm, rhythm.
• 21:00
  I love rhythm. They do a fantastic job of
• 21:02
  powering this podcast because I love.
• 21:05
  The thought. Process which is data and AI
• 21:08
  backed models and formulas and predictions leaning on
• 21:11
  information not not. Your, you know your.
• 21:13
  Bias your your opinion but the raw hard data.
• 21:17
  So today's a big WNBA day. It's a big weekend here for golf
• 21:21
  as well. And you may feel like, hey, it's
• 21:23
  summer. It's kind of, you know, it's
• 21:25
  basically. You know the sports betters
• 21:26
  vacation, not a lot's going on, but if you.
• 21:29
  Want to bet some WNBA and if you?
• 21:30
  Want to bet some golf rhythm is the.
• 21:32
  Place to go if? You haven't done it yet.
• 21:35
  I want you to sign up for a 7 day rhythm free trial.
• 21:38
  That way you can take advantage of these WNBA.
• 21:39
  Projections as well as the golf models which really can make a
• 21:44
  lot of money off of like one thing I noticed.
• 21:47
  Is like. For the upcoming tournaments.
• 21:49
  You can do like pre flop rhythm will say hey take.
• 21:51
  This guy, top 20, we have him. Going, you know, 17th and.
• 21:54
  He's +200 or where A. Lot of people are making a lot
• 21:57
  of money is the AI caddy, which is basically.
• 22:00
  Hole to hole. Rhythm gives you a
• 22:03
  recommendation of hey, you know, we, we think this guy is going
• 22:05
  to get a birdie and you can go bet him to get a birdie.
• 22:08
  And it's plus 600 something like that, so.
• 22:11
  There's definitely some money to be made with the.
• 22:12
  AI Caddy, but if you haven't done it yet, give Rhythm a shot.
• 22:16
  They can they can really help you to cash some tickets here
• 22:19
  and you. Can sign up just by.
• 22:21
  Going to my. Twitter page at Josh under
• 22:23
  score. Insights you can see links for.
• 22:25
  Rhythm or you can just sign up by clicking the link which is
• 22:28
  located in the bio description. Of this of this podcast.
• 22:32
  Secondly, I want to help you guys win by recommending.
• 22:35
  To you, the juice. Reel app.
• 22:37
  Because Juice Reel also does a. Great job of helping us power
• 22:40
  this podcast. Juice Reel is great.
• 22:42
  For their Robo Jackson AI backed pics.
• 22:45
  Each day. As well as looking at the sharp
• 22:47
  mush plays per day, but. Also, I'm really getting into
• 22:49
  the arbitrage opportunities. Now if you don't know what
• 22:51
  arbitrage. Is here's the first thing you
• 22:53
  got to know. You might hear me say quite a
• 22:55
  bit. There's no such thing as a lock.
• 22:57
  Or a guarantee in sports betting.
• 22:58
  However. There is.
• 23:00
  If you have an arbitrage. Opportunity because basically
• 23:02
  what you can do is bet both sides of a game at, you know,
• 23:06
  basically take both. Sides of a of a pick.
• 23:08
  At but you got. To bet it at different sports.
• 23:10
  Books and based on the numbers you're guaranteed a profit.
• 23:12
  So I'll. Give you a perfect example.
• 23:14
  There's a great arbitrage opportunity today for the.
• 23:17
  Reds total runs. At DraftKings the over. 3 1/2 is
• 23:20
  at -1 O 5 and at FanDuel it's under 3 1/2 at plus 116.
• 23:25
  So here's the thing. If you bet 110 point and they'll
• 23:29
  tell. You exactly what to do.
• 23:30
  You got to do it exactly. How they say, but at.
• 23:32
  DraftKings if you go Reds. Over 3 1/2 runs and risk $110
• 23:36
  and then you risk $100 on them going under 3 1/2 at.
• 23:39
  Plus 116, you're guaranteed a. Profit of $5.37 so you might.
• 23:45
  Say 5 bucks, who cares, what's the point?
• 23:47
  But that's a coffee, so if you want a free coffee, pay for the
• 23:50
  juice. Reel membership.
• 23:51
  Hey, boom. You can take advantage of these
• 23:53
  arbitrage opportunities so. Give it a shot.
• 23:55
  With the Juice Reel. App you can sign up just as you
• 23:58
  sign up for rhythm by clicking the bio description located in
• 24:01
  the podcast breakdown. With that being said.
• 24:05
  Thank you for. Listening once again, this is
• 24:07
  the part of the pod where I. Asked something of you and
• 24:09
  that's going to be very easy, very simple.
• 24:11
  Can you please give this podcast a 5 star review?
• 24:14
  On on Spotify or iTunes. It goes a long way to giving us
• 24:19
  credibility. Rising up the the charts in the
• 24:21
  ranks. Of course, if you want to
• 24:23
  recommend it to a friend, word of mouth is always.
• 24:24
  Great to grow something organically, but if you could
• 24:26
  give. This pod five stars and if you
• 24:28
  have the option to follow the pod like I know on Spotify, you
• 24:31
  can hit follow. Which just.
• 24:32
  Means that once the pod comes out each day, you're.
• 24:34
  Going to get alerted to it, that'll be great as well.
• 24:38
  Secondly, if you want to learn. More how to be a data-driven.
• 24:40
  Sharp, contrarian sports Better well.
• 24:42
  Hopefully you keep listening to this.
• 24:44
  Pod but also I can. Recommend to you something else
• 24:47
  go by my book. It's called the everything Guide
• 24:50
  to Sports betting. It's.
• 24:50
  Available at Amazon as well as Barnes and Noble, but you just
• 24:53
  get on Amazon very. Easily type in the everything.
• 24:56
  Guide to sports betting it's got everything I've.
• 24:57
  Learned in the industry. It's my sharp contrarian baby.
• 25:00
  My Bible. How lines are set, How and why
• 25:02
  they move, how to read line movement, How to locate sharp
• 25:05
  action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet in person or
• 25:07
  online, How to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
• 25:10
  management plan, chapters on all the major sports.
• 25:13
  It's all. Included in the.
• 25:14
  Everything guide to sports betting so.
• 25:16
  Buy a copy it's. Less than 20 bucks and.
• 25:18
  When I see you at the book, I'm. Going to sign my book.
• 25:21
  For you at the book and I'm going to buy you a beer or maybe
• 25:24
  a ginger ale or a cranberry juice if you don't drink, of
• 25:27
  course. Lastly, whether I see you at the
• 25:30
  Borgata in Atlantic City Twin? River in Rhode Island, the
• 25:32
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire. Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 25:34
  Connecticut at the. Encore in Boston or plainridge
• 25:37
  park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of.
• 25:39
  The woods in Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
• 25:42
  true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his number
• 25:44
  runners with lowest choose possible is.
• 25:46
  Found at the South Point or jumping in the stadium swim
• 25:49
  pool. At circa, which is basically.
• 25:52
  Disney World for for sports. Better if you've never been a
• 25:54
  circa. I mean, I've been many times.
• 25:56
  It's just awesome. But whatever it may be, you're
• 25:58
  going to walk up to me, you're going to show me a nice night of
• 26:01
  winning tickets. Show me an Angels ticket.
• 26:03
  A Mets RLM for days ticket. A Collier over.
• 26:07
  A Smith over. Two and.
• 26:08
  O in the NBA Draft. You'll love to see it.
• 26:10
  Guess what first? One's on me, next one's on you.
• 26:12
  We're going to post about the book.
• 26:13
  Sweat sharp contrarian place all night long.
• 26:16
  So wish you the best of luck everyone have.
• 26:18
  A fantastic Thirsty Thursday. Be back at it tomorrow for a a
• 26:23
  big episode. What are we at now?
• 26:24
  66 tomorrow. Which hopefully will have some.
• 26:27
  Biting some UFC bets which will be coming up for a big weekend
• 26:32
  and I already have a couple. Bites that I'm looking.
• 26:34
  At but I'm again. As always.
• 26:36
  If it ain't broke, don't fix it waiting for that next batch of
• 26:38
  data. For my buddy John Ewing,
• 26:40
  tomorrow morning at around 9, around 9:00 AM, he sends.
• 26:43
  It to me, but anyway, guys have a great Thirsty Thursday.
• 26:45
  Enjoy the sweats, let's get some winners on the diamond.
• 26:48
  And then in the WNBA. And remember my parting.
• 26:51
  Words, as always, stay sharp, stay contrary.
• 26:53
  And bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
• 26:55
  the house. Always be with the smart money,
• 26:57
  never against it. Will smart money win every time?
• 27:00
  Of course not, but it is going to win a.
• 27:01
  Majority of the time long term which?
• 27:03
  Is why we always want to be. On the sharp side of every bet
• 27:06
  against the public, if we can help it.
• 27:07
  If we can do that. Fearless but disciplined
• 27:10
  grinders with blinders, as an old buddy of mine used.
• 27:12
  To say against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
• 27:15
  bet, avoid parlays, get some CLV.
• 27:17
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful.
• 27:19
  Sports bettors. So enjoy your Thursday everyone.
• 27:22
  Have a great night. Again, I'll see you back
• 27:23
  tomorrow for episode 60. Six of the all systems go sports
• 27:27
  betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 27:29
  Good luck everybody, have a great night.