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Early Byrd Special · Politix

• 0:00
  The Trump schtick is that if we sell out Ukraine and deport
• 0:04
  some illegal immigrants,
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  SPEAKER_00: we're going to solve all these problems.
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  But the actual solution that they have on the table is to press
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  all the costs of
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  solving America's problems onto poor people with some
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  downstream consequences.
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  SPEAKER_00: I think that's a tough look.
• 0:27
  Hey,
• 0:27
  everyone,
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  you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
• 0:30
  We're going to take a step back from all of the ongoing crimes
• 0:33
  against the state so
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  that we can home in on what Republican donors were paying for
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  when they decided to
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  SPEAKER_01: sign off on authoritarian rule in America.
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  And that is trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars in
• 0:49
  tax cuts.
• 0:50
  Last week,
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  House Republicans unveiled a blueprint for remaking the federal budget.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like most Republican budgets,
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  it envisions huge tax cuts for the wealthiest people in America
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  and less food and
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  SPEAKER_01: health care for everyone else,
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  SPEAKER_01: plus a huge addition to the deficit.
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  SPEAKER_01: Outstanding question is, can they pass it?
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  And then more importantly,
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  what would life in America look like if they did?
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  SPEAKER_01: So if you want to hear that whole conversation,
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, everyone, welcome to the Politics Podcast.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Brian Boitler.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Iglesias.
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  SPEAKER_01: I don't really have an intro written, Matt.
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  We've been spending kind of like week in,
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  week out since January 20th talking about
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  various crimes and corruption and possibly the end of
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  constitutional democracy in America.
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  SPEAKER_01: Um, but like Republicans are doing this for a reason.
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  And only part of the reason I guess is that Donald Trump wants
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  to like own
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  SPEAKER_01: everything in the world and get away with crimes.
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  Uh,
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  the other reason is that everyone else around him wants some
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  money too.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so like last week,
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  SPEAKER_01: I guess house Republicans pulled the curtain back on what,
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  SPEAKER_01: what they plan to deliver.
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  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I guess, I mean, they sort of did.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: Well, no.
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  SPEAKER_01: So they're fighting amongst themselves.
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  SPEAKER_01: So we don't,
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  SPEAKER_01: uh,
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  SPEAKER_01: house Republicans have been,
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  SPEAKER_01: uh,
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  SPEAKER_01: uh,
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  have put more meat on the bone and have been a bit more
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  explicit about what they
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  SPEAKER_01: would hope to accomplish if they can,
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  SPEAKER_01: uh,
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  SPEAKER_01: round up the votes.
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  Um,
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  so I,
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  you know,
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  I find myself like in this day and age,
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  much more attuned to the,
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  like,
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  ongoing crisis happening today than to a Republican budget
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  because I've been
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  SPEAKER_01: through like a thousand Republican budgets.
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  SPEAKER_01: They all look a little something like this.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know,
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  this one is maybe a little bit more extreme than than the ones
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  that they were introducing.
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  SPEAKER_01: Well,
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  I guess it's it's larger in scope and how much money they want
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  to give away and
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  maybe a little bit less radical and how they want to like
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  reform the things about
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  SPEAKER_01: government that people like.
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  SPEAKER_01: But it's not it's not like
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  SPEAKER_01: Other things where Donald Trump doesn't, it's like, what the hell?
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  SPEAKER_01: This isn't normal.
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  SPEAKER_01: We haven't seen this before.
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  SPEAKER_01: At the same time, it's obviously like a big deal, right?
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  Because like trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars
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  are at stake.
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  SPEAKER_01: And for a lot of people,
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  that's going to be the difference between like they get to see
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  the doctor and they don't.
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  SPEAKER_00: I guess the thing that I would emphasize about it is that
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  You know,
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  there's different ways to construe the significance of
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  different things.
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  SPEAKER_00: Saying that you are unilaterally going to alter how NIH cuts,
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  how NIH funding works in a way that seems to violate the plain
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  meaning of the text,
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  SPEAKER_00: and then getting told by courts that you can't do that,
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  SPEAKER_00: and then having back and forth,
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  SPEAKER_00: that's like extraordinary.
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  Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: Whereas, you know, writing a budget resolution is banal.
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  SPEAKER_00: Like everybody does that.
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  SPEAKER_00: Democrats do it.
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  SPEAKER_00: Republicans do it.
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  It's like literally what Congress is supposed to do since the
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  Budget Act of
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  SPEAKER_00: sometime in the late 70s.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's very normal.
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  At the same time,
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  the scale of the amount of funds involved is different.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know,
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  SPEAKER_00: Mark Schmidt,
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  SPEAKER_00: an OG blogger and former Senate staffer,
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  SPEAKER_00: he once told me that,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  one of the most important facts about politics is that all
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  numbers that end in
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  SPEAKER_00: illion sound the same to people.
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  SPEAKER_00: But they're, in fact, quite different, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: So, like, a $4 trillion reconciliation bill is...
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  thousands of times larger than a cut to a grant program or the
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  savings involved in layoffs.
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  And doge is attracting a lot of attention to relatively small
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  beer undertakings,
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  SPEAKER_00: not trivial undertakings,
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  SPEAKER_00: but fiscally trivial undertakings.
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  SPEAKER_00: while the money is really moving through congressional processes.
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  SPEAKER_00: And to an extent,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's not moving,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is something that requires attention to be paid to it as well.
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  So you look at what Republicans are trying to do on taxes and
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  spending on a number
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  SPEAKER_00: of different levels.
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  SPEAKER_01: Wait,
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  SPEAKER_01: can I break in to say one thing about like,
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  SPEAKER_01: because it's true,
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  SPEAKER_01: obviously,
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  SPEAKER_01: that if Elon Musk just stopped now,
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  SPEAKER_01: and Republicans then didn't pass a budget,
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  you're talking about a really unimpressive first 100 days for
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  Donald Trump,
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  SPEAKER_01: right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like, well, he's not going to have a lasting policy in print.
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  And what he's going to got out of it is some sadistic abuse of
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  the civil service,
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  etc.
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  But like,
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  when you pass a law,
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  even if it's a huge law,
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  like the Affordable Care Act,
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  right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like,
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  SPEAKER_01: Things, they get rolled out, you know, like the law passes.
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  It doesn't like instantly necessarily all pieces of it
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  instantly take effect.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know, notice goes out to the agencies.
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  SPEAKER_01: They communicate to you, hey, your taxes are going to go up this year.
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  SPEAKER_01: Hey, your taxes are going to go down this year.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: When Elon Musk,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  goes into a mainframe and yanks out some wires or does the
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  equivalent of that to
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  SPEAKER_01: the bureaucracy,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: wake up one day and there's no park rangers in Yosemite,
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  SPEAKER_01: and so you can't go.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so, like, it can feel...
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  Like even though the budget savings of accidentally shutting
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  down Yosemite are trivial,
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  the people who end up experiencing that firsthand experience it
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  as like a smack in
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  SPEAKER_01: the face kind of shock.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but I guess I mean it in the other direction, right?
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  So one of the controversies over the weekend was that we had
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  yet another plane
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  SPEAKER_00: crash incident in Toronto.
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  SPEAKER_00: And at the same time, there were 400 provisional employees from the FAA.
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  SPEAKER_00: who got laid off.
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  SPEAKER_00: And,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  so the new secretary of transportation said these provisional
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  employees who were
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  laid off had nothing to do with air traffic control and SpaceX
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  engineers are coming in.
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  SPEAKER_00: They're going to improve things.
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean, who knows, right?
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  Like either planes will keep falling from the sky at an
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  extraordinary rate,
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  in which case people are going to get really mad and airline
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  stocks will crash,
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  SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
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  SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
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  SPEAKER_00: or it'll be fine.
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
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  SPEAKER_00: The premise of Doge is that this will be fine.
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  SPEAKER_00: That,
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  SPEAKER_00: in fact,
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  SPEAKER_00: Yosemite National Park will continue to exist,
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  SPEAKER_00: that planes will continue to land,
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  SPEAKER_00: that schools will continue to operate in America,
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  SPEAKER_00: and that we are going after waste and we are making the libs squeal.
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  SPEAKER_00: And the subsidiary premise,
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  SPEAKER_00: what Elon Musk would like you to believe,
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  SPEAKER_00: is that not only will all this doge stuff work out fine,
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  SPEAKER_00: But also,
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  this doge stuff will address fundamental fiscal issues in the
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  United States of America.
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  And the reason that I'm imploring people to pay some attention
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  to the congressional
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  budget process is that the congressional budget process is
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  Republicans conceding
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  SPEAKER_00: that that is not true.
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  SPEAKER_00: That even optimistically,
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  SPEAKER_00: if all the doge stuff is fine,
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  if the only people who suffer are like layabout civil servants
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  and like woke NGO
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  SPEAKER_00: grant recipients,
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  It's just not true that you can make Republican tax policy work
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  within the confines
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  SPEAKER_00: of these kind of doge-scale budget initiatives.
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  They are having trouble agreeing amongst themselves on exactly
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  what to do because
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  SPEAKER_00: they are grappling with trade-offs that their own people acknowledge as,
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  SPEAKER_00: in some sense,
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  SPEAKER_00: significant,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Because trillions is just much bigger than billions.
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  SPEAKER_00: A trillion is a thousand billion.
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  So you can't get done what they want to get done tax-wise
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  without either big
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  SPEAKER_00: increase in the deficit,
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  SPEAKER_00: notwithstanding whatever's happening in Doge,
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  SPEAKER_00: or
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  SPEAKER_00: big cutbacks in social safety net programs that will impact Trump voters,
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  SPEAKER_00: non-voters,
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  SPEAKER_00: all kinds of people in a very,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: smack in the face kind of way.
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  SPEAKER_00: Not just according to me, but like according to them, right?
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  Like that's why this is not getting done at lightning speed
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  because they are a
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  SPEAKER_00: little bit uncertain of how to proceed on it.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know,
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  Can I probably jump the gun or at least put a pin in something
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  because I...
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  SPEAKER_01: This is difficult for Republicans.
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  SPEAKER_01: Often it's difficult for them when they have fairly large majorities.
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  Like,
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  you know,
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  the putting together of the 2017 Trump tax cuts was not easy.
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  It was sort of like they wanted to do affordable character
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  appeal first because
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  they thought it would be more contentious and they could get
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  out of the way more quickly.
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  But the thing that was supposed to be the easy win on the other
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  side of that was a
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  SPEAKER_01: big Republican style tax cut.
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  SPEAKER_01: And it came together, but it was not like
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  SPEAKER_01: Everyone was on the same page.
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  SPEAKER_01: There was no rancor.
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  SPEAKER_01: There was no infighting.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's going to be much worse now.
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  And so you're already starting to see various Republicans grasp
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  about for like
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  bookkeeping nonsense to make it seem like this is not going to
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  affect the deficit.
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  SPEAKER_01: And one thing that I think that is going to happen,
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  SPEAKER_01: we can maybe like talk about all these things later,
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  SPEAKER_01: is that
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  SPEAKER_01: Trump and Musk are going to be like,
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  you can ignore the budget scorekeepers and the marginal member
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  of the Republican
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  caucus who thinks this is going to increase the deficit too
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  much because Elon found
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  SPEAKER_01: all the waste,
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  SPEAKER_01: fraud,
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  SPEAKER_01: and abuse.
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  SPEAKER_01: And now that's gone.
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  SPEAKER_01: So that frees up trillions of dollars.
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  SPEAKER_01: And it's going to be made up.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's going to be completely hand-wavy.
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  SPEAKER_01: But that will be something that they use as an excuse to ignore Trump.
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  SPEAKER_01: budget rules or to change budget rules on the fly.
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  SPEAKER_01: You're right.
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  SPEAKER_01: They are conceding,
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  SPEAKER_01: if you know how to read the process,
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  SPEAKER_01: that there haven't been real savings from Doge.
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  I would guess that if anybody had access to the whole trove of
• 11:21
  what Doge had done,
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  SPEAKER_01: and it was honest accounting of what Doge had done,
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  SPEAKER_01: they would look closely at it and say,
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  SPEAKER_01: this has made government much more expensive.
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  more expensive than it would have been if you just left
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  everything alone.
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  SPEAKER_01: But they're going to say, oh, Elon found so much
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  waste,
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  fraud,
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  and abuse got rid of it that,
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  like,
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  we can afford way more tax cuts.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, we'll talk about that.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: because there's the,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: procedural rules aspect of what you,
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: quote,
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: unquote,
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: need to do.
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  SPEAKER_00: And there's the actual economics of it.
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  And I think that we've moved into a mode which is different
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  from 2017 or even 2003
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  SPEAKER_00: in which,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: the real economics are more significant than the CBOs.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: But so I just want to start with what Trump campaigned on,
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  SPEAKER_00: because,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  part of the mantra of everything that happens is this is what
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  Trump campaigned on.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know, the people voted for this.
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  SPEAKER_00: He he won.
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  SPEAKER_00: So.
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  SPEAKER_00: Back in 2017, Republicans passed a Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
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  They had,
• 12:25
  as Brian was saying,
• 12:26
  some challenges,
• 12:28
  kind of making the numbers add up on that.
• 12:30
  And what they came up with ultimately was to schedule a lot of
• 12:34
  those tax cuts to expire.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: You know, which was just a fiscal gimmick.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: They never wanted them to be temporary.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: So Trump said he would fully extend TCJA.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: According to Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget,
• 12:50
  that costs somewhere between $3.9 trillion and $4.8 trillion
• 12:55
  over a 10-year period.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a lot right there, just the core period.
• 13:01
  But Republicans from swing seats in greater New York and
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  California have also said
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  SPEAKER_00: they want to undo the SALT tax cap that was part of TCJA.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Trump endorsed that.
• 13:21
  I don't know why Trump endorsed this,
• 13:22
  frankly,
• 13:23
  I guess because it benefits him personally.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: But so that would be another either $200 billion to $1.2 trillion,
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: according to their estimate,
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_00: based on how far you go.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: Trump also said no tax on tips, which is $100 billion.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: He said no taxes on overtime pay, which is $250 billion.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: He said no taxes on Social Security, which is $550 billion.
• 13:48
  Except that's all assuming that you do it in a bird rule
• 13:52
  compliant way so that
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: there would still be social security taxes on all of those things.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: The reason those come out as cheap,
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: is if you're a waitress,
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: you probably don't make that much money.
• 14:04
  And so a very large share of what you probably think of as your
• 14:07
  income tax is
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: actually payroll tax.
• 14:09
  If you do it as genuinely no tax on any of those things,
• 14:13
  it's like a $6 trillion commitment.
• 14:17
  So,
• 14:18
  you know,
• 14:20
  if my Substack subscription revenue was all tip revenue,
• 14:22
  I would.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's loophole.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: But all told,
• 14:25
  just Trump campaign commitments are somewhere between five and
• 14:29
  eleven trillion
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_00: dollars worth of tax cuts.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: that to pass in a reconciliation bill,
• 14:37
  you would theoretically need to offset with five to $11
• 14:42
  trillion worth of spending cuts.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: And again, a trillion is a thousand times a billion.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's a million times a million, I think.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: You are a math major, right?
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: Science, something like that.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: A million million is.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: So this is like a lot of money.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's not.
• 15:00
  It's several orders of magnitude larger than like the entire
• 15:04
  USAID budget.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Can I stop?
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_01: Because, OK, because like.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: I,
• 15:10
  I think that we provided real clarity as to what Trump promised
• 15:14
  and hopes to
• 15:14
  accomplish and what Republicans in the House at least are
• 15:16
  trying to help them do.
• 15:18
  And I think that there are listeners out there who will
• 15:21
  understand implicitly why
• 15:23
  you brought up Social Security and what the Byrd rule is and
• 15:26
  what reconciliation means.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: But I feel like weed style,
• 15:29
  we should try to explain why it can't be the case that a party
• 15:33
  wins a trifecta and
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: they're like,
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: the government takes in this much revenue.
• 15:36
  It spends this much and we want to change that such and so
• 15:39
  without having to run
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: through all these hurdles.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: So do you want to do it or do you go for it?
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: OK,
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: so you need 60 votes to get a bill through the Senate,
• 15:49
  which makes it challenging to make controversial changes to
• 15:53
  public policy,
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: which is one reason,
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: I guess,
• 15:56
  why Trump and Musk are trying to shred the Constitution rather
• 15:59
  than change the filibuster.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: But there's like a big I don't say loophole,
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: but there's like an exception to the filibuster rule.
• 16:06
  which is that you can once per fiscal year pass a budget
• 16:11
  reconciliation bill,
• 16:13
  which is a multi-step process in which first you pass a budget resolution,
• 16:18
  which says how much tax and spending changes you want and doles
• 16:25
  out the spending
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: changes to different committees.
• 16:27
  And then you pass a bill that reconciles tax and spending
• 16:31
  policy with the terms of
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: that budget reconciliation.
• 16:37
  So you only need 50 votes plus the vice president to pass a
• 16:41
  reconciliation bill.
• 16:43
  You only need 50 votes plus the vice president to pass a budget resolution.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_00: But your reconciliation bill has to conform with the Byrd rule.
• 16:56
  So that means that all of the provisions have to be
• 16:59
  substantially budgetary in nature.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: And then people argue around the margin about what that means.
• 17:06
  So like Democrats said,
• 17:07
  we're going to raise the minimum wage in our reconciliation bill.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: Because that is going to increase tax revenue.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: And the parliamentarian ruled, no, you can't do that.
• 17:18
  And then Democrats could have overruled the parliamentarian,
• 17:22
  but they didn't have this.
• 17:24
  Basically,
• 17:24
  like,
• 17:25
  Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin didn't want to raise the minimum wage.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: So this, like, fell on the parliamentarian.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: But you get those kind of disputes around the margin.
• 17:34
  Then the other Byrd rule provision is that you can't change
• 17:38
  Social Security.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: in a reconciliation bill.
• 17:41
  So you like actually can't do no tax on tips in the biggest way
• 17:45
  in a reconciliation bill.
• 17:47
  Although again,
• 17:47
  like all congressional rules are enforceable only by Congress.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: So you can change any of this, but that would be considered escalatory.
• 17:58
  One,
• 17:59
  I think like- And then the third big piece of it is that if a- Oh,
• 18:04
  sorry.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I left out the most important part.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: increases the long-run deficit way outside the budget window,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: but also like year by year,
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_01: then its provisions have to sunset within 10 years.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 18:18
  So you can increase the deficit in the short term,
• 18:21
  but the long-run deficit has to go down.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: So Republicans will often do these sunset gimmicks to make it work.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: An additional wrinkle in this, like this is a Senate issue, right?
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: The House gets to do whatever it wants.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: All of this stuff.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_00: Normally, I shouldn't say normally, but in 2017, in 2021, in 2009, right?
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_00: Like in past trifectas,
• 18:53
  The governing party has had to deal with more sort of vote
• 18:59
  count troubles in the
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: Senate than in the House.
• 19:02
  So like Senate procedure and like where are your moderates have
• 19:08
  really almost been
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_00: like one question.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: Today, it's actually different.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 19:13
  There's 50 solid right wingers in the United States Senate in a
• 19:18
  way that's like
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: maybe not true in the House where the majority is much more narrow.
• 19:23
  So you're dealing with a kind of unusual situation where I
• 19:27
  think that the specific
• 19:30
  details of Senate procedure may be relatively easy for John
• 19:33
  Thune to just kind of
• 19:34
  brush away if he decides he doesn't need to care what Susan
• 19:37
  Collins and Lisa
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: Murkowski think.
• 19:40
  But just like literally getting the votes in the House could be
• 19:43
  a problem.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: Which is funny because,
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: okay,
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: so like as we record this,
• 19:51
  you would think that the Senate's going to have an easier time
• 19:53
  passing something,
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_01: which is weird because usually it's the House that does.
• 19:57
  would militate for Senate Republicans just trying to shoot the
• 20:00
  moon with the budget
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_01: they envisioned passing.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: And House Republicans being like,
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: whoa,
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: whoa,
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: whoa,
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: we probably don't have the margins to do much of anything.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_01: But the situation is actually flipped, right?
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: Like last week,
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: House Republicans released their budget resolution,
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: step one in that process you outlined.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_01: And it's like, it's not the whole shebang, but it's,
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: as $4.5 trillion, right?
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: And they said that they could basically increase deficits that much.
• 20:33
  So they want to do a tax cut that's a couple trillion dollars
• 20:36
  larger than that.
• 20:37
  And then they want to save a couple trillion on the other end
• 20:40
  by cutting Medicaid a
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_01: ton and food stamps,
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_01: Which is like,
• 20:45
  didn't we just start this conversation by saying that House
• 20:47
  Republicans have no
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_01: wiggle room to do much of anything?
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_01: Meanwhile,
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_01: in the Senate,
• 20:52
  where John Thune can probably push through whatever comes out
• 20:57
  of some final negotiation,
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_01: they are like...
• 21:01
  Didn't Lindsey Graham release a mini reconciliation outline
• 21:04
  where it's like,
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_01: we're just going to give Trump some wins on immigration spending and...
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: Well...
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_00: So Lindsey Graham,
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_00: who chairs the Senate Budget Committee,
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: he has this idea that they should do two bills.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_00: So Graham's,
• 21:25
  I unfortunately do not have insights into the private thinking
• 21:28
  of Lindsey Graham
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_00: about this,
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: but Lindsey Graham's publicly stated view
• 21:34
  is that passing the big Trump fiscal agenda is going to be
• 21:40
  challenging and is going
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_00: to require a lot of time and dialogue and work.
• 21:45
  So what he wants to do is put up a quick win for Trump with his
• 21:51
  reconciliation bill,
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_00: which focuses on energy,
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: defense,
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_00: and border security.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_00: So basically, you're going to do some...
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: Lacks are rules on drilling,
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: rescind some of the Inflation Reduction Act climate spending,
• 22:07
  and you're going to use that money to pay for more border
• 22:11
  security and more
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: military spending and also a small amount of deficit reduction.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: So Lindsey Graham has a budget reconciliation that does that,
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: basically,
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: and a stated plan to sort of follow through in that regard.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: And then he says there's going to be a second reconciliation bill,
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: the way Democrats did two reconciliation bills under Biden.
• 22:34
  And that second reconciliation bill is going to address TCJA
• 22:39
  and maybe other kinds of things.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_00: So when Graham first floated this and John Thune floated it,
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_00: House Republicans considered it for a little while and decided no.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: that they wanted to do what they called to get Trump on board,
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_00: a single,
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: one big,
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: beautiful bill that will address everything.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: And that was kind of a, I think it was a Mar-a-Lago meeting.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: They settled on the big, beautiful bill strategy.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: It's like Build Back Better, same acronym.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_00: But when you look at
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: budget reconciliation.
• 23:14
  So this is annoying because the budget resolution doesn't have
• 23:18
  the details,
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: but the tendency is to explain what you mean the details to be.
• 23:26
  So the budget reconciliation that the House put out is like
• 23:30
  $4.6 trillion worth of
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: tax stuff,
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: of spending cuts to make room for tax cuts.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_00: Now,
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: just if you look at the numbers that I went down before,
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: $4.6 trillion is a smaller number than $5 trillion,
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_00: and it is a much smaller number than $11.2 trillion.
• 23:54
  And especially if you think that there's going to be spending
• 23:57
  increases in border
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_00: security and defense,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: it just doesn't add up.
• 24:02
  You can't do the Republican tax agenda within the confines of
• 24:07
  that $4.6 trillion number.
• 24:11
  You can easily address that through phase-outs and gimmicks and
• 24:15
  things like that if
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: you want to.
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_00: But Laura Weiss from Punchbowl,
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: she said Friday,
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_00: Steve Daines leads a letter with Thune,
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: Crapo,
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: Barrasso,
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: Lankford,
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: Ron Johnson,
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_00: Marshall,
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_00: Blackburn,
• 24:35
  and Tillis saying that they would oppose any tax package that
• 24:39
  doesn't make the
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: Trump tax cuts permanent.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, that's where Senate Republicans are at.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: They are moving this bill that doesn't address TCJA extension at all.
• 24:53
  But then they're also signaling that the House resolution
• 24:56
  doesn't do like enough
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_00: tax cutting for their taste.
• 25:01
  So they're saying like two bills,
• 25:03
  two bills,
• 25:03
  two bills,
• 25:04
  because the second bill needs to be big.
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, notably Graham, who was the key actor here, is not on that letter.
• 25:14
  I would say one interpretation of what Graham is doing is that
• 25:18
  Lindsey Graham really,
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: really,
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: really wants this large increase in military spending.
• 25:23
  It's not obvious that Donald Trump or the House Republican
• 25:30
  Caucus cares about that
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_00: nearly as much as Graham does.
• 25:33
  I would say they're not against it,
• 25:36
  but this is like a passion project of his.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_00: Trump apparently...
• 25:42
  floated the idea that we should do arms control talks with
• 25:46
  China and Russia and cut
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_00: military spending.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_00: So who knows?
• 25:50
  So I think Graham is reasonably concerned that his military
• 25:54
  spending increase will
• 25:56
  just fall out in negotiations once Republicans start focusing
• 26:00
  on cutting taxes and
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: making numbers add up.
• 26:05
  And so I think one reason he wants this two-bill strategy is
• 26:08
  just to make sure that
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_00: the defense spending happens.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: Because in the past,
• 26:15
  Senate Republican defense hawks have had to get the defense
• 26:19
  spending they want by
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_00: negotiating with Democrats,
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_00: which has meant giving Democrats concessions on domestic spending.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that's what's going on with him, but I don't really know.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_00: the upshot is that,
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_00: as you say,
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_00: like the Senate is nowhere on like the basic tax cutting bill.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_00: They're putting down some markers and writing some letters,
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_00: but they have,
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_00: we're a month in,
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_00: there's plenty of time left,
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_00: but-
• 26:49
  They also did have like a year or four to think about like what
• 26:53
  kind of bills will
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_00: we write if we win control of the government.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, a month is slow, right?
• 26:59
  I mean,
• 27:00
  Democrats first reconciliation bill was the budget resolution
• 27:06
  was passed by now.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_00: much less written.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_00: And we were moving on to the details of American Rescue Plan.
• 27:13
  The second bill,
• 27:14
  Build Back Better,
• 27:15
  took a long time,
• 27:16
  wound up not passing.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_00: They had to do a whole different, different bill.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_00: But to not even be agreed as to how many bills you're doing,
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_00: or what the bills are about,
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: is a little bit mysterious.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to say a counterpoint,
• 27:33
  but it's a compliment to the kind of chaotic unilateralism of
• 27:40
  the Doge process,
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: that in a sort of personality cult type way,
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: if you can just sort of agree that Elon is going to do stuff and you will
• 27:52
  sporadically put out press releases saying you disagree with
• 27:55
  one or another of the
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: things that Doge does,
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_00: you can get things done.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: Whereas
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: you know, Congress is hard.
• 28:03
  Legislating is hard because a bunch of House Republicans have
• 28:06
  raised a bunch of
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_00: objections to the budget reconciliation,
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: the budget resolution as written.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, it's not, it's not clear what they'll do.
• 28:18
  Democrats also just have a much clearer,
• 28:20
  like,
• 28:21
  strategy for arguing about the budget resolution.
• 28:25
  It's actually the only thing that they're,
• 28:26
  like,
• 28:27
  excited about jumping into the fight on,
• 28:30
  right?
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_01: So, I find myself doing this because...
• 28:36
  I feel like it computes more easily for people who aren't read
• 28:40
  in on all the,
• 28:41
  you know,
• 28:41
  jargon.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_01: Like, what's a reconciliation bill?
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: What's the Byrd rule?
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: What's the Budget Act?
• 28:48
  I talk about,
• 28:48
  like,
• 28:48
  there's the stuff happening that's like a direct assault on the
• 28:52
  rule of law.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_01: And then there's budget stuff, right?
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_01: And they overlap it in a sense where,
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_01: Republicans absolutely have to do a couple of things that are budgetary.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: But those are different from this, like,
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_01: tax cut party that they want to have for themselves.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_01: Like the annual appropriations, which is a budgeting thing, those expire.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_01: And if they don't get renewed or changed and reenacted,
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: the government will most government operations will
• 29:22
  shut down and then there's the debt limit which is about how
• 29:25
  much authority uh the
• 29:27
  the treasury department has to borrow and if they don't
• 29:29
  increase that then you have
• 29:31
  a different kind of financial crisis right and then there's
• 29:34
  this third uh rung of
• 29:37
  budgetary stuff which is the reconciliation bill and that's
• 29:41
  like where republicans
• 29:42
  kind of bear their ass and tell everyone what they're really
• 29:45
  about and so like
• 29:48
  I think that there's a lot of people in my wing of the liberal
• 29:53
  firmament or
• 29:54
  whatever that would like to see Democrats engaged heavily on
• 29:59
  the rule of law crisis
• 30:00
  that's happening right now and use the leverage that the
• 30:05
  appropriations and the
• 30:06
  debt limit process give them to kind of put pressure on
• 30:08
  Republicans to get right
• 30:09
  SPEAKER_01: with the law.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_01: And you see the Democrats are kind of uneasy there.
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_01: They're not racing to the cameras to talk about it.
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_01: But when this...
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_01: budget resolution came out last week.
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, Joe Nigguse, who, who leads the Democrats rapid response, uh,
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_01: caucus committee, whatever they're calling it, the little working group.
• 30:28
  They were like straight to the to the House press gallery to do
• 30:33
  a to do like a live
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_01: press conference to to be like,
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_01: aha,
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_01: this is where,
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_01: this is where the rubber meets the road.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_01: Look at look at how bad these Republicans are.
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_01: And like they are excited to get,
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 30:47
  I don't know what Elon Musk will be doing by the time all this
• 30:49
  budget stuff is really,
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_01: truly center stage.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_01: But what Democrats are counting on is that
• 30:54
  Republicans are going to put forward concrete ideas that are
• 30:59
  super unpopular,
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_01: like many,
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_01: many,
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_01: many trillions of dollars in tax cuts,
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_01: which overwhelmingly go into the pockets of rich people.
• 31:09
  Tons of cuts to Medicaid and many cuts to food stamps as well
• 31:13
  and just be like,
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_01: who asked for this?
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_01: They're also,
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 31:17
  anticipating that Republicans have dramatically overpromised
• 31:22
  ahead of winning a
• 31:23
  really narrow majority in the House and might not actually be
• 31:27
  able to pass anything.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_01: So then.
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_01: For Democrats, that's like a best of both worlds situation where.
• 31:34
  Republicans put all of their all of their eggs in this
• 31:37
  reconciliation basket.
• 31:38
  SPEAKER_01: It blows up in their face because the public doesn't like it.
• 31:40
  And then they don't get the policy either because they can't
• 31:42
  get it together to pass it.
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_00: I think so.
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's hard to know politically, right?
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_00: Would Democrats actually,
• 31:52
  actually be better if Republicans just went to town and
• 31:56
  shredded the social safety net?
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_00: Because I sometimes think that had ACA repeal passed in 2017,
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_00: that would have been worse for Americans' healthcare,
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_00: but perhaps better for the long-term future of American democracy.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_00: But I don't know.
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_00: You can't play the game that way, I think.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like since 2005,
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 32:22
  when I was like first in Washington and didn't even like really
• 32:27
  know how Congress
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_01: worked for real,
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats were fighting off George W.
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_01: Bush's effort to to privatize Social Security.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_01: And this was before the parties had fully polarized.
• 32:46
  We were just at the beginning of this new sort of Mitch
• 32:49
  McConnell driven era of
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_01: intense polarization.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_01: The shoving of entire party agendas into reconciliation bills.
• 33:00
  And so the expectation in Washington was that George W.
• 33:05
  Bush had just won re-election.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_01: He was going to spend his capital.
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_01: He wanted to put it into this and thus Democrats would have to
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_01: have a negotiation with him about it.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_01: And Nancy Pelosi,
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_01: who was Democratic leader at the time,
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_01: her insight was,
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: no,
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_01: you get no votes to do this.
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: So you can do it on your own if you want.
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_01: You can try, but we're not going to help.
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_01: There's nothing wrong with Social Security that this is going to fix.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: And it took real work for her to get Democrats to
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_01: To see the wisdom in that approach.
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_01: But since then,
• 33:39
  whenever Republicans have controlled Washington or like the
• 33:45
  threat that Republicans
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_01: would win the next election and then control Washington,
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_01: like the Democratic strategist realm,
• 33:52
  SPEAKER_01: they're like,
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_01: oh,
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 33:53
  that means that they're going to try to come at Obamacare or
• 33:56
  Medicare or or Social Security.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: And we get to be put in the like the fun position of just saying no.
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_01: And and
• 34:06
  SPEAKER_01: like telling Americans watch what they're doing.
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_01: They're trying to take away the best things that the government does.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_01: And like, it's, it's almost like plug and play for them at this point.
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_01: and that's why they're like,
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_01: that's why when Republicans released the budget,
• 34:21
  like things click into gear and Democrats start resembling what
• 34:25
  you'd expect an
• 34:26
  SPEAKER_01: opposition party to look like more across the board.
• 34:30
  SPEAKER_01: But like, there's like no way that,
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_01: That like,
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 34:34
  I can't imagine a scenario in which Democrats join Trump to
• 34:39
  provide a single vote
• 34:40
  SPEAKER_01: for what House Republicans are.
• 34:44
  No,
• 34:44
  I mean,
• 34:45
  one thing here that's,
• 34:46
  you know,
• 34:46
  inescapable is that I think like,
• 34:50
  Democrats more sincerely agree with each other about the social
• 34:57
  safety net.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_00: like Bernie Sanders did a tweet,
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: over the weekend where he was like,
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_00: House Republicans have told us exactly what they're going to do.
• 35:08
  Trillions in tax cuts that are tilted to the rich and less
• 35:12
  Medicaid and nutrition assistance.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_00: And it's like, you know, I think like,
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_00: Crow and just like all, it's like a Bernie tweet, right?
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_00: Because like Bernie's people are psyched up to fight against this,
• 35:27
  SPEAKER_00: but like all the moderate Democrats would co-sign that.
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: it's just like something that they agree with versus,
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_00: Bernie has many takes that are contentious inside the party.
• 35:39
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, it's simpler, right?
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_00: Like everybody knows what to do.
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_00: The construction of Medicaid, right?
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_00: is not like an elaborate 17-part log roll either.
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_00: where like,
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_00: you look at like stuff,
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_00: the inflation reduction at climate provisions,
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 35:57
  Which even like Democrats are broadly aligned,
• 35:59
  like we should address climate change.
• 36:01
  But the specific details of how that came together are like
• 36:04
  incredibly perky jerk.
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_00: and had to do with like exactly getting to 50%.
• 36:09
  There's all this hydrogen stuff in there that just because like
• 36:12
  Joe Manchin loves
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_00: hydrogen that lots of,
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 36:16
  environmental advocates actually kind of roll their eyes at and
• 36:19
  millions and
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_00: millions of things like that.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_00: Medicare and food stamps, Democrats are just very, very, very aligned on.
• 36:24
  The other thing about this that is interesting is that part of
• 36:30
  the realignment,
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_00: if you look at 2012,
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: 2016,
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: 2020,
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: 2021,
• 36:35
  The upshot of everything that's changed across those election
• 36:39
  cycles is that
• 36:41
  Republicans are getting a much larger share of the vote of SNAP
• 36:45
  and Medicaid
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_00: recipients than they were four cycles ago.
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_00: Mitt Romney, you know, had the famous gaffe about how...
• 36:56
  47% of the population or something were like takers whose votes
• 36:59
  he could never get
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_00: because of all the welfare that they're on.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: Donald Trump is getting those people's votes,
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_00: not like all of them,
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_00: but he is doing dramatically better than Mitt Romney.
• 37:11
  The New Republican coalition is way more on welfare than the
• 37:14
  Mitt Romney coalition.
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, see, exactly.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know,
• 37:19
  But interestingly,
• 37:20
  that has not dimmed Democrats' enthusiasm for these programs.
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's a bad political pivot for this budget gambit.
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_00: If it had been that Democrats are now like,
• 37:33
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_00: why do we have to be helping poor people?
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_00: But Democratic Party elites still care about poor people.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_00: Republican Party elites don't,
• 37:43
  but they have been getting poor people's votes on the basis of
• 37:47
  many other concerns,
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_00: inflation,
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_00: that hurt Democrats,
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_00: with younger,
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_00: particularly downscale voters.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, it's challenging.
• 37:57
  SPEAKER_00: There was a freshman from Pennsylvania, I think the guy who beat...
• 38:02
  Susan Wild was up saying,
• 38:05
  like,
• 38:05
  I don't know,
• 38:05
  guys,
• 38:06
  like,
• 38:06
  we can't just,
• 38:08
  you know,
• 38:08
  cut.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_00: Sorry.
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_00: Rob Bresnahan,
• 38:11
  I ran for Congress under a promise of always doing what's best
• 38:14
  for the people of
• 38:14
  SPEAKER_00: northeastern Pennsylvania.
• 38:16
  If a bill is put in front of me that guts the benefits my
• 38:18
  neighbors rely on,
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_00: I will not vote for it.
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_00: Rule of thumb is that moderate House Republicans will cave in the end.
• 38:28
  SPEAKER_00: But like that is what he said.
• 38:30
  It is worth pointing out that moderate Republicans are seldom
• 38:34
  like because a
• 38:36
  moderate Republican 10 years ago represented an affluent suburb
• 38:40
  and a moderate
• 38:41
  Republican today might represent a rural area with a lot of
• 38:46
  Medicaid and food stamp beneficiaries.
• 38:49
  in the past asking Republicans to moderate Republicans to
• 38:52
  knuckle under was about
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: tax cuts for the rich or a judge or whatever,
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 38:57
  SPEAKER_01: and now it's like impoverish your own district,
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_01: which is a,
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think even if you're a bad person,
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: like if you're elected to Congress,
• 39:07
  you might not want to do that just because like you're afraid
• 39:10
  of the pitchforks and
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: the torches and stuff like that.
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, so right.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_00: this is sorry,
• 39:15
  I misstated which district is Pennsylvania 8th is like Scranton
• 39:18
  and Wilkes-Barre
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_00: and then rural areas kind of.
• 39:23
  East of there,
• 39:23
  this is a classic,
• 39:25
  you know,
• 39:26
  Obama won this,
• 39:28
  won 56% of the vote in 2012.
• 39:29
  SPEAKER_00: But then Trump won it in 2020, even while losing the election.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_00: But Fetterman narrowly won here in 22.
• 39:39
  SPEAKER_00: Shapiro won handily because he crushed his opponent in 22.
• 39:43
  SPEAKER_00: Lots of ancestral Democrats there.
• 39:46
  You know,
• 39:46
  it's not like an impoverished district,
• 39:49
  but it's not a rich district.
• 39:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's 20% Black and Hispanic,
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_00: where again,
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_00: Trump lost working class Black and Hispanic voters,
• 39:59
  SPEAKER_00: but he did better with them than previous Republicans had.
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_00: They need to...
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_00: worry potentially about this stuff.
• 40:06
  SPEAKER_00: They might show more backbone.
• 40:07
  SPEAKER_00: They might not.
• 40:09
  The other thing that has happened over this time is that
• 40:13
  Republicans have started,
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 40:15
  Trump like moved Republicans off of cutting Social Security and
• 40:20
  Medicare as talking points,
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_00: which means that you're now like
• 40:25
  The fewer programs you want to cut,
• 40:27
  the more you have to cut the programs that are left,
• 40:30
  right?
• 40:31
  Like if you were willing to take a broad,
• 40:34
  comprehensive view of the budget,
• 40:36
  right?
• 40:36
  Like Obama was willing to give Paul Ryan like big budgetary
• 40:42
  cuts across the whole
• 40:43
  scope of the federal government in exchange for concessions on
• 40:46
  the revenue side.
• 40:48
  Part of the case that Obama's team made was that,
• 40:50
  you know,
• 40:52
  the cuts were like pretty small.
• 40:55
  to any individual program because they were cutting so many
• 40:58
  different things.
• 41:00
  If you try to micro-target climate spending and then spending
• 41:06
  on the poor,
• 41:06
  you have to have really big cuts in spending on low-income
• 41:10
  households to begin to
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_00: make it
• 41:14
  SPEAKER_00: They're trying to say,
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_00: I saw one House Republican saying,
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_00: we can do all of this,
• 41:22
  all the changes that we need to make on Medicaid through
• 41:25
  program integrity and work requirements,
• 41:29
  SPEAKER_00: which is not,
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_00: true by any account.
• 41:32
  It's also a little bit of a tell that they expect work
• 41:35
  requirements to save them a
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_00: lot of money.
• 41:38
  SPEAKER_00: Because if you're pitching work requirements to people,
• 41:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think the basic pitch would be like,
• 41:44
  SPEAKER_00: we ought to get these folks into the labor force.
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_00: That'll be good for the economy.
• 41:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's in line with our values, et cetera, et cetera.
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_00: But a work requirement that's efficacious,
• 41:54
  SPEAKER_01: Doesn't save any money.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't save you money, right?
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_00: It only works if... I mean, of course, you can have some of both, right?
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_00: you could apply a work requirement to a million people,
• 42:06
  SPEAKER_00: 500,000 of them get jobs,
• 42:07
  SPEAKER_00: 500,000 lose benefits,
• 42:09
  SPEAKER_00: you save some money,
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_00: et cetera.
• 42:10
  But they're counting on work requirements to deliver large
• 42:13
  savings because they are
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_00: counting on this to be basically pure disenrollment.
• 42:19
  SPEAKER_00: But everything in there...
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_00: they put out this menu,
• 42:24
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 42:24
  SPEAKER_00: at the beginning and,
• 42:25
  SPEAKER_00: and everything in there was,
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_00: was like per capita caps and F map.
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_00: It's very technical,
• 42:33
  SPEAKER_00: but it's all just like,
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_00: pay less money for people's,
• 42:36
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 42:37
  SPEAKER_00: for people's coverage.
• 42:38
  SPEAKER_01: So, so, so maybe we should, we need to do a break.
• 42:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 42:41
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we got program integrity.
• 42:44
  SPEAKER_01: Well, okay.
• 42:44
  SPEAKER_01: So you've mentioned a couple of things when you mentioned that, um,
• 42:50
  There was a realignment in the last election that was probably
• 42:53
  had something to do
• 42:54
  SPEAKER_01: with inflation.
• 42:55
  And then you started talking about how the sort of huge cuts to
• 43:00
  Medicaid that
• 43:00
  SPEAKER_01: Republicans want to do would just disenroll a bunch of people.
• 43:04
  So why don't we talk about like what happens to America if a
• 43:10
  plan more or less like
• 43:12
  SPEAKER_01: the one outlined in the House Republican budget were to become law?
• 43:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 43:17
  SPEAKER_01: Okay,
• 43:18
  SPEAKER_01: we will,
• 43:20
  you can listen to that on the other side if you go to
• 43:22
  politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.