Latest / The House Never Wins / Are The “Experts” Right About World Cup 2026? | La Casa No Gana Episode #92

Transcript

Are The “Experts” Right About World Cup 2026? | La Casa No Gana Episode #92 · The House Never Wins

• 0:00
  - Welcome,
• 0:01
  - everyone.
• 0:02
  - What a pleasure to have you here with
• 0:05
  - us in another episode, the 92 episode of.
• 0:11
  - Are you
• 0:12
  - excited
• 0:13
  - about this twenty twenty six World Cup party?
• 0:18
  - Of course, buddy. It's a pleasure to be
• 0:21
  - with you and excited.
• 0:23
  - I'm ready.
• 0:24
  - It's gonna be a lot of,
• 0:26
  - games. So let's get started
• 0:29
  - with the podcast where football predictions
• 0:32
  - become emotional
• 0:33
  - gambling
• 0:34
  - and Twitter fights become tactical analysis, Fabi.
• 0:39
  - And
• 0:40
  - today, Fab, we are doing a rapid fire
• 0:42
  - twenty twenty six World Cup predictions.
• 0:48
  - Yes. First,
• 0:49
  - fast takes, hot takes, and
• 0:52
  - dangerous takes.
• 0:54
  - Exactly. Basically, the entire
• 0:57
  - Internet
• 0:58
  - screaming
• 0:59
  - at once.
• 1:02
  - Yes. We checked
• 1:04
  - Reuters, CVS,
• 1:06
  - that's in markets, prediction models, Fusbo x,
• 1:10
  - everything.
• 1:11
  - And somehow, Pau, everyone still disagrees.
• 1:16
  - Yes, Fari. Which honestly
• 1:18
  - means this World Cup, it's gonna be
• 1:21
  - amazing and probably
• 1:23
  - impossible
• 1:24
  - to perf to bet perfectly.
• 1:28
  - Exactly.
• 1:28
  - So that's why we're going to
• 1:31
  - rapid fire
• 1:32
  - number one, which is
• 1:34
  - the favorites.
• 1:37
  - Yeah. Okay. Consensus.
• 1:39
  - Favorite
• 1:40
  - right now.
• 1:42
  - Spain.
• 1:44
  - Spain. Okay.
• 1:46
  - Which feels crazy because a few years ago,
• 1:49
  - nobody saw this coming, Fabi.
• 1:52
  - Yeah. But now
• 1:53
  - everybody's
• 1:54
  - obsessed with Jamal, Pedri,
• 1:57
  - Rodri generation.
• 1:59
  - It's like a fashion, like the short names,
• 2:01
  - you know? It's not
• 2:03
  - Pedro Espedri, not Rodrigo. It's Rotary
• 2:07
  - and, obviously, Jaminal.
• 2:09
  - Most betting markets
• 2:10
  - have Spain
• 2:12
  - first right now, Fabi.
• 2:14
  - Exactly. And honestly, pal, they feel balanced.
• 2:17
  - Young talent,
• 2:19
  - mind field control
• 2:21
  - identify.
• 2:24
  - Yes.
• 2:26
  - Very annoying tournament team. The type that wins
• 2:30
  - games maybe without looking spectacular.
• 2:33
  - But they are like the scary kind of
• 2:36
  - boring good.
• 2:40
  - Yes. Then we have
• 2:42
  - France, buddy.
• 2:44
  - Oh my god.
• 2:45
  - We. We. We. We. We. Yeah. France basically
• 2:48
  - has
• 2:49
  - infinitive
• 2:50
  - football
• 2:51
  - players and they are all good.
• 2:54
  - Yes. Rather literally
• 2:57
  - had economists predicting
• 2:59
  - France to win
• 3:00
  - the whole thing
• 3:02
  - When data people and football people agree, that
• 3:05
  - usual that usually
• 3:07
  - a a warning.
• 3:09
  - Imagine this power. Imagine being so good that
• 3:12
  - economists start analyzing your minefield.
• 3:17
  - Yes.
• 3:18
  - Mbappe entering his prime
• 3:21
  - is terrifying.
• 3:23
  - And France
• 3:24
  - deep
• 3:25
  - is ridiculous.
• 3:28
  - Yes. And then we need to talk about
• 3:32
  - England.
• 3:34
  - Yep. The annual emotional
• 3:37
  - support favorite.
• 3:41
  - ESPN already
• 3:42
  - talking about whether this is finally
• 3:46
  - England's
• 3:46
  - year
• 3:47
  - dear.
• 3:49
  - Actually, football Twitter preparing means as we speak.
• 3:53
  - Let's talk about rapid fire number two,
• 3:57
  - the biggest
• 3:58
  - flop.
• 4:01
  - Yes. Okay. Which giant team
• 4:03
  - could
• 4:04
  - disappoint,
• 4:05
  - Fabi?
• 4:06
  - We have a lot.
• 4:07
  - For me,
• 4:09
  - Brazil.
• 4:09
  - Brazil.
• 4:11
  - Yes.
• 4:12
  - I'm agree with you,
• 4:15
  - but maybe that might upset an entire continent,
• 4:18
  - Fabi.
• 4:19
  - Yeah. Yeah. It's not because they are bad
• 4:21
  - because they are not. It's because expectations
• 4:24
  - are, like, kind of weird right now.
• 4:27
  - Yes. Even brothers
• 4:29
  - mentioned Brazil
• 4:31
  - as a possible underperforming
• 4:33
  - according to prediction
• 4:36
  - polls.
• 4:37
  - So Mhmm. Exactly.
• 4:39
  - This shirt
• 4:40
  - still scares people.
• 4:44
  - Yes. But modern Brazil
• 4:46
  - hasn't dominate like old Brazil. The yoga bonito
• 4:50
  - doesn't exist anymore,
• 4:53
  - And betting markets still respect the aura.
• 4:58
  - Yes. Football nostalgia
• 5:00
  - is undefeated,
• 5:01
  - definitely.
• 5:03
  - But honestly, Pau, England flop potential
• 5:07
  - always exist too.
• 5:11
  - Yes. That's just tournament
• 5:13
  - heritage at this point. Maybe a tradition
• 5:16
  - unlike any other.
• 5:19
  - Exactly. Now
• 5:20
  - rapid
• 5:21
  - fire, number three,
• 5:23
  - dark horse
• 5:24
  - energy pow.
• 5:27
  - I love it. Okay. Dark horse team, everybody's
• 5:30
  - suddenly
• 5:32
  - upset
• 5:33
  - with
• 5:34
  - Norway.
• 5:36
  - Norway. That photo shoot everything about Norway.
• 5:41
  - Yes.
• 5:42
  - Why?
• 5:43
  - Because of how I work out with David
• 5:45
  - the hype.
• 5:46
  - Real.
• 5:48
  - Exactly. On the Internet, they love a new
• 5:51
  - superstar
• 5:52
  - narrative. Yes. And Norway has become the trendy
• 5:56
  - smart pick team.
• 5:58
  - Like a very hipster football analyst
• 6:01
  - energy.
• 6:03
  - Yes. Portugal too.
• 6:05
  - Yes. They quietly have one of the deepest
• 6:08
  - squads around.
• 6:09
  - Exactly. Portugal feel dangerous because they have chaos
• 6:14
  - potential.
• 6:16
  - Yes. And possibly,
• 6:18
  - Ronaldo's
• 6:19
  - last
• 6:20
  - World Cup.
• 6:21
  - Which means
• 6:23
  - football scripts become
• 6:26
  - powerful.
• 6:28
  - Yes. And never underestimate
• 6:30
  - narrative
• 6:31
  - magic in tournaments. Sometimes
• 6:34
  - the story
• 6:35
  - writes itself.
• 6:37
  - Exactly. Now rapid fire number
• 6:40
  - four. Breakout young
• 6:42
  - young star prediction, Pau. Obviously, I have to
• 6:45
  - say,
• 6:47
  - Everybody agrees on that, honestly. Yes.
• 6:51
  - Yes. Reuters literally mentioned
• 6:53
  - him as the breakout pick.
• 6:56
  - Which almost make him too
• 6:59
  - obvious. Yes. True.
• 7:02
  - So my sneaky pick
• 7:04
  - somebody,
• 7:05
  - like, random,
• 7:06
  - like, from Morocco or from Colombia.
• 7:09
  - Yes. A workup
• 7:11
  - always
• 7:12
  - create
• 7:13
  - one unexpected
• 7:15
  - superstar, one player nobody discussed
• 7:18
  - six months earlier, for example.
• 7:20
  - Exactly.
• 7:21
  - Always. Always.
• 7:23
  - Yes. And one good month
• 7:26
  - change careers forever.
• 7:29
  - Transfer
• 7:32
  - Yes. You are right, Pau. Now rapid fire
• 7:35
  - number five,
• 7:36
  - Messi
• 7:38
  - and Ronaldo
• 7:40
  - last dance.
• 7:43
  - I love this topic. So okay. Emotionally,
• 7:46
  - are we prepared for possibly the last work
• 7:49
  - of of Messi
• 7:51
  - And Ronaldo?
• 7:53
  - No. No. No. No. No. No. Yeah. Absolutely
• 7:56
  - no.
• 7:58
  - For the childhood
• 8:00
  - ending in real time, Pau.
• 8:03
  - Yes. Argentina still feels dangerous, though.
• 8:07
  - Champions usually play with a different kind of
• 8:10
  - confidence maybe. Yeah. Reuters said Argentina
• 8:15
  - entered with less pressure now after winning in
• 8:19
  - 2022.
• 8:22
  - Yes. Which honestly
• 8:24
  - makes them
• 8:25
  - scarier. Not as aspiration.
• 8:28
  - Just bliss.
• 8:29
  - Exactly. And relax champions
• 8:32
  - champions are dangerous.
• 8:36
  - Yes. And what about Portugal, Fabi?
• 8:39
  - Pure
• 8:41
  - chaos
• 8:42
  - energy, pal.
• 8:45
  - The Internet good collapse
• 8:47
  - if Ronaldo wins, you know.
• 8:50
  - I mean, yeah. Sports media will never
• 8:54
  - recover from that. So rapid fire number six,
• 8:58
  - most
• 8:59
  - overhyped
• 9:02
  - team. Okay. Most overhyped team entering 2026?
• 9:08
  - England.
• 9:11
  - Yes.
• 9:12
  - That answer comes up, and
• 9:15
  - I'm absolutely
• 9:17
  - with you.
• 9:18
  - Look. Look. Okay. Yeah. Look. Talent team,
• 9:22
  - yes. Talented team, yes. Yes. No doubt about.
• 9:26
  - Yes. But the hype machine becomes
• 9:29
  - sometimes ridiculous every every tournament.
• 9:32
  - The expectation sometimes become
• 9:34
  - the opponent of England.
• 9:37
  - And betting odds reflect
• 9:39
  - emotional money sometimes.
• 9:41
  - Yes.
• 9:42
  - ESPN literally discussing England
• 9:45
  - as a tough favorite
• 9:48
  - again.
• 9:49
  - Again.
• 9:50
  - Meanwhile meanwhile,
• 9:52
  - the intern waits for
• 9:54
  - penalties.
• 9:55
  - Accurate. Accurate. Now rapid fire number seven, Pau,
• 10:00
  - internet
• 10:01
  - favorite
• 10:02
  - team.
• 10:04
  - Yes. Who becomes
• 10:06
  - the internet's
• 10:07
  - favorite
• 10:08
  - neutral
• 10:10
  - simpah?
• 10:10
  - I mean,
• 10:13
  - Japan. Japan.
• 10:15
  - I like it. Good pick. Mhmm. Football,
• 10:18
  - Twitter loves organized underdogs.
• 10:21
  - They have it all. Yes.
• 10:23
  - Yes. Japan
• 10:25
  - always create
• 10:26
  - anime protagonist
• 10:28
  - energy. Every tournament feels like a new chapter.
• 10:31
  - Yeah. Exactly.
• 10:32
  - Exactly.
• 10:34
  - And my pick,
• 10:35
  - I'm gonna go with Colombia.
• 10:39
  - They always bring entertaining
• 10:41
  - value. Okay. Explain. Explain, please.
• 10:44
  - Home players.
• 10:46
  - Haitian
• 10:48
  - defense kills potential
• 10:50
  - and that readily
• 10:52
  - play boring matches.
• 10:54
  - And, I mean,
• 10:55
  - everybody loves a good South America run. Everybody
• 10:59
  - loves that.
• 11:00
  - Now rapid fire number eight,
• 11:03
  - the betting
• 11:04
  - chaos. My favorite par, Pao.
• 11:07
  - Betting
• 11:09
  - storyline, Fabi.
• 11:11
  - Expended
• 11:12
  - format.
• 11:13
  - Yes. Okay. 48 teams,
• 11:15
  - more matches,
• 11:17
  - more randomness.
• 11:18
  - Every Reddit betting communities
• 11:21
  - are saying
• 11:22
  - their markets could get weird, especially
• 11:26
  - early in the tournament.
• 11:28
  - With more variance
• 11:29
  - means
• 11:30
  - more chaos.
• 11:33
  - Yes. And probably
• 11:35
  - more giant killing.
• 11:37
  - Upsets are where brackets
• 11:40
  - go to die, Fabi.
• 11:42
  - Exactly one weird group stage week
• 11:46
  - change
• 11:47
  - everything. Just one.
• 11:50
  - Now rapid fire number nine,
• 11:53
  - who
• 11:54
  - actually
• 11:55
  - wins?
• 11:58
  - Okay. Final answer. No fear. Fabi.
• 12:02
  - France.
• 12:03
  - France. Yeah.
• 12:05
  - Okay. Safe but terrifyingly
• 12:07
  - valid.
• 12:08
  - I mean, Ampere
• 12:10
  - Prime plus
• 12:11
  - ridiculously
• 12:12
  - deep.
• 12:13
  - Yes. I'm agree with you, but I'm gonna
• 12:16
  - say Spain.
• 12:18
  - The numbers and the eye test both love
• 12:21
  - them.
• 12:22
  - I mean, the most
• 12:24
  - trendy pick
• 12:25
  - right now, honestly, Pau. Yes.
• 12:28
  - Okay.
• 12:30
  - The dark horse, Pau.
• 12:33
  - Dark horse. Okay.
• 12:35
  - So
• 12:36
  - I'm gonna
• 12:37
  - say Portugal.
• 12:39
  - Too much talent to ignore.
• 12:41
  - Mine is you're not ready.
• 12:44
  - Mine is
• 12:46
  - Norway, pal.
• 12:48
  - Yes.
• 12:49
  - Norway.
• 12:50
  - Biggest love, Savvy?
• 12:52
  - For me, England as always, as usual.
• 12:56
  - I knew it. We were waiting, Gollipso, for
• 12:59
  - that.
• 13:01
  - Okay. So the Internet currently said
• 13:04
  - Spain and France
• 13:06
  - favorites.
• 13:07
  - England,
• 13:08
  - overhyped
• 13:09
  - according to literally
• 13:11
  - half the Internet. Yeah. Brazil,
• 13:14
  - confusing, weird.
• 13:16
  - Yes.
• 13:17
  - Argentina,
• 13:19
  - emotional.
• 13:21
  - Portugal,
• 13:22
  - chaotic.
• 13:23
  - Yes.
• 13:25
  - And
• 13:25
  - Norway trendy?
• 13:27
  - Yeah. Basically, this World Cup has no clear
• 13:31
  - dominant team.
• 13:34
  - Yes. We usually
• 13:36
  - means absolute
• 13:37
  - tournament
• 13:39
  - insanity, Fabi. That is exactly
• 13:42
  - what we want.
• 13:45
  - Of course. So drop your World Cup winner
• 13:48
  - predictions below before this age
• 13:52
  - horribly.
• 13:53
  - And remember, babes. Remember.
• 13:55
  - Football predictions
• 13:57
  - are temporary
• 13:59
  - but screenshots
• 14:00
  - screenshots
• 14:02
  - are forever.
• 14:05
  - Yes.
• 14:07
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• 14:30
  - See you next week, Pau, and enjoy the
• 14:33
  - World Cup.
• 14:34
  - Yes. See you next week.