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Episode 300 - 6/17/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 300 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
• 0:39
  guys, as we March on through the middle portion of June, before,
• 0:43
  you know, it's 4th of July. And did you guys hear some big
• 0:46
  news? For those of you who like to get
• 0:48
  down on the Nathan's hot Dog eating contest, our guy Joey
• 0:51
  Chestnut is back in the competition.
• 0:54
  He was banned after last year. He missed last year's contest
• 0:58
  because I believe he did some kind of commercial or something
• 1:02
  with like a Beyond meat, like fake, fake meat company.
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  And Nathan said we ain't having that.
• 1:07
  But I guess they came to some kind of resolution.
• 1:09
  And we have Joey Chestnut back in here for the 4th of July hot
• 1:13
  dog eating contest. So some breaking news there for
• 1:15
  those of you who are looking to bet on it.
• 1:17
  Once again, the GOAT is back, but looking toward today, guys
• 1:21
  have a huge pod for you. Again, I always say that every
• 1:23
  day to me is a big day in the arena because we're trying to
• 1:26
  grind out a profit and it's difficult to do, but we keep
• 1:29
  striving. We strive for perfection, but no
• 1:31
  will never get it. But we always try to grind out a
• 1:33
  profit, which is always the ultimate goal.
• 1:35
  And I did see today, not just a big MLB slate.
• 1:38
  I got 3 plays for you guys in Major League Baseball, but I
• 1:41
  also have a play for you in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals, a big
• 1:45
  line move. You might know which direction
• 1:46
  I'm going on this one. If not, I'll give you the full
• 1:48
  breakdown here in a second and then I'm going to make my debut
• 1:52
  here in the WNBA. It's a gross one.
• 1:54
  We're going to bet on a really bad team to hopefully get a win
• 1:57
  here tonight, but it's a really sharp line move with some
• 1:59
  fantastic betting systems. So overall we got a 5 pack,
• 2:02
  3MLB1NHL1 WNBA and usually I say 3 pack, let's try to go 2 and
• 2:08
  one each got a winning day. Well, A5 pack, let's try to get
• 2:11
  three of them each got a winning day.
• 2:13
  Now looking back to our last night, guys, every every now and
• 2:16
  again in baseball this happens. The importance of action versus
• 2:19
  listed pitcher. So for example, last night and a
• 2:22
  lot of people reach out to me because I did have a good winner
• 2:24
  with the LA Dodgers plus 0.67 units winner there with the
• 2:28
  Dodgers, which was nice. Lost Seattle, wouldn't you know
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  it, the Red Sox trade Devers play well and G Alito pitches a
• 2:34
  gem. But if you were like me on
• 2:36
  Seattle, they had so many opportunities.
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  Bases loaded guys on cannot get a single hit.
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  I feel like Seattle is probably, I don't know.
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  I feel like every time I bet them, they never come through
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  for me and they never hit and they always just cannot squeeze
• 2:48
  out a run. So anyway, one and one overall.
• 2:50
  But here's the key, the Houston Astros game.
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  If you guys notice the Astros game, which at the time, you
• 2:56
  know, they're like -150 ish, their starting pitcher got
• 2:59
  scratched. So Lance Mccullers got
• 3:01
  scratched. And then we saw Ryan Gusto jump
• 3:04
  in, in terms of the new starter. And as a result, that line
• 3:07
  absolutely tanked. So it actually ended up closing
• 3:09
  all the way down like Houston, like -110 So what end up
• 3:13
  happening? Well, the Astros ended up losing
• 3:15
  the game. It was a huge walk off by their
• 3:17
  one of their top picks, Nick Kurtz, who had a great backflip
• 3:20
  and absolutely crushed the ball. And the Athletics won the game.
• 3:24
  But here's the important thing. What do we always talk about on
• 3:25
  the pod? Or maybe I should do a better
• 3:27
  job of trying to mention it, But really, the importance of action
• 3:30
  versus listed pitcher. Now, this is kind of nitty
• 3:33
  gritty, you know, inside baseball talk, pun intended.
• 3:36
  But the whole point being is that when you are betting on
• 3:39
  baseball, you can bet either one of two ways or actually have
• 3:42
  multiple ways to bet it. You can just play action where
• 3:46
  you just take the number that's in front of you at that moment
• 3:49
  and you're locked into it. Or you can bet listed pitcher.
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  Listed pitcher basically protects you in situations like
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  last night. So if a guy gets scratched, if
• 3:57
  you had bet the game listed pitcher, your bet gets voided.
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  It gets cancelled, it gets refunded.
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  So if you bet action on Houston, you lost the game.
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  If you bet listed pitcher on Houston, your bet is voided and
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  you get your money back. You get refunded.
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  So if you had bet listed pitcher on Houston, you had a one in one
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  night -0.33 units. If you had bet action on
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  Houston, you're 1 and 2 -, 1.33 units.
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  So the importance of listed pitcher here saved you a unit
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  and always recommend going listed pitcher because if you
• 4:29
  still liked Houston, you can just rebet them at a better
• 4:32
  price. But the whole point being is
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  that when we get down on baseball, a big part of the
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  handicap, like the quarterback in football or the goalie in
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  hockey is all about again, the starting pitcher match up
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  because they have the ball in their hands every single pitch
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  and they have the most effect on the game.
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  So remember, guys, when you're going to bet baseball, I'd
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  always recommend betting listed pitcher situations like last
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  night where you like a team, but then a guy gets scratched.
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  You can kind of protect yourself.
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  And if you like Houston anyway, you could you could have just
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  bet them. You know, if you like the
• 5:01
  Athletics, you could have bet them.
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  You just give yourself more options with listed pitcher and
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  protects you from a a lost unit. You're not you're not winning a
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  unit, but you're saving yourself from a lost unit, if that makes
• 5:11
  any sense. So as always, the importance of
• 5:13
  action versus listed pitcher, make it easy on yourself.
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  Always go listed pitcher. So with that being said, let's
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  dive right into our place here for today, guys.
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  A5 pack overall. Again, I don't remember the last
• 5:24
  time I had five plays in one night.
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  So I'm kind of jacked kind of excited here for tonight.
• 5:29
  But anyway, guys, let's dive right in.
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  I want to start off with the NHL post season because this could
• 5:35
  be the final game of the season tonight.
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  Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers.
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  If you haven't been paying attention with the Stanley Cup
• 5:41
  Final, we do have the Florida Panthers up three to two.
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  This is Game 6IN Florida tonight, 8 O clock on TNT.
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  And if the Florida Panthers win tonight, it's over.
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  They win their second Cup in a row and maybe Brad Marchand, you
• 5:54
  know, brings it back to Boston and we can celebrate with him if
• 5:57
  you're a Bruins fan like me. But anyway, guys looking toward
• 5:59
  tonight, I noticed a really sharp line move on Mark Shannon
• 6:04
  and the Panthers. I'm going Panthers tonight to
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  close it out. So from a betting market
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  perspective, Florida open this game around a -, 140 home
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  favorite. Now seen Florida get bet up to
• 6:16
  -150 at FanDuel and some shops are even -155 -, 160.
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  So nothing but big steam hitting Florida.
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  We've seen no buyback really whatsoever on Edmonton.
• 6:27
  Tells me you got a lot of smart money here pouring in on the
• 6:30
  Panthers. Now aside from that steam in
• 6:32
  favor of Florida, let's look at the bet splits out at Circa
• 6:36
  again, they pride themselves on not rejecting but accepting
• 6:39
  sharp action smart money. Right now you're getting 69% of
• 6:43
  money line bets on Florida, but also accounts for 87% of the
• 6:48
  money line dollars. So low bets, higher dollar.
• 6:50
  Split out in Vegas, 69% bets, 87% dollars.
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  Then we get into some system matches for this game.
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  If you look at chalk in the NHL, Stanley Cup Finals is a big
• 7:02
  sample size. It goes back nearly 20 years
• 7:05
  since 2006. But if you just play favorites
• 7:08
  in the Stanley Cup Finals, you're doing pretty well.
• 7:10
  They're 84 and 3571% with a 21% ROI.
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  Now you may ask yourself, hey, you know, how's that performing
• 7:19
  this year? Well, if you isolate home
• 7:21
  favorites in the NHL Stanley Cup finals, they are 40 and 23 this
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  year. Let me just make sure.
• 7:28
  Is that home or overall favorites?
• 7:30
  I don't want to double check that.
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  So yeah, home favorites. Just wanted to make sure.
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  Home favorites this year, Stanley Cup Finals, the spot
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  that the Panthers are in tonight, 40 and 2364%, 2% ROI.
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  Now it's nothing huge, but it's profitable.
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  But here's where it gets even better.
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  If you isolate this year, home favorites receiving at least
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  $0.10 of steam in their favor. So basically your home favorite
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  you get in the last ice change you're expected to win in a spot
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  where historically favorites have done well in the finals.
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  But the key to me is the $0.10 of steam that's telling me that
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  the market is taking smart money in your favor.
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  Well, if you get those home favorites with $0.10 of steam or
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  more this post season, they're 20 and 6 77 percent, 20% ROI.
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  So that's really been the number one system match here that is
• 8:17
  lighting up on the Panthers. And then if you kind of look at
• 8:21
  an X Factor here, one reason why I do like Florida aside from
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  just a market driven play a line move, good bats, splits, good
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  systems, it's the goaltending matchup with the Edmonton
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  Oilers. You almost feel bad for Conor
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  McDavid because he's doing everything he can, but he does
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  not have a goaltender. Looks like it's going to be
• 8:39
  Stewart Skinner. Tonight it was Skinner.
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  They went to Picard back and forth, but it looks like it'll
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  be Skinner. And in the postseason Skinner,
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  he has a 2.99 goals against and an 891 save percentage.
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  Now if you don't know hockey that much, that's pretty bad.
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  You want to be in the twos or low twos for goals against save
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  percentage. You got to be over 900.
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  And if you look at the game log with Stewart Skinner, he won
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  game 1/4 to three. He only gave up three goals, but
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  Game 2, lost 5 to 4, gave up five goals.
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  Game three, lost six to one, gave up five goals.
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  In game four, he only lasted one period and gave up three goals
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  and they pulled him. And then, you know, last game
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  they lost with Picard in that. So it looks like it's going to
• 9:25
  be Skinner again. But again, Skinner is the type
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  of guy that at the drop of a hat can really be porous and Swiss
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  cheese and give up a lot of goals.
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  Conversely, Sergei Babrowski, Sergey Barbrovsky has had a
• 9:39
  great postseason. 2.26 goals against a 912 save percentage.
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  Barbrovsky obviously won it last year.
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  They've been in the Stanley Cup Final here for three years in a
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  row. And if you look at Bob Brovsky
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  on the flip side, he did lose game one, gave up four goals,
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  but then he won game two, game three and then won again.
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  Obviously in the last game, Game 5 only gave up two goals and
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  game, I think it was game three, only gave up one goal.
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  So basically you have, if you think of it from like a pitching
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  standpoint, you got an ace who's got a low ERA against a guy who
• 10:12
  get can get roughed up at the drop of a hat.
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  So that's kind of my X Factor here.
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  Bob Rovski greater than Skinner. But the big reason for me to
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  take Florida is the line move the steam, the bet splits.
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  And I also think as a veteran team like Florida, they lost a
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  cup, they won a cup. I don't think you want to lose
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  this game tonight and then have to go to Edmonton for a game
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  seven in which anything can happen.
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  So hopefully the veteran, you know, leadership of Florida
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  says, hey, let's close this thing out tonight.
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  I have a Long story short guys, I'm going Panthers.
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  I got the Panthers. Shop around -150 at FanDuel.
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  But again, make sure you can find that best price because
• 10:48
  some books are as high as -160 but I am going with the
• 10:52
  Panthers. Now let's flip over to some
• 10:55
  Major League Baseball before I surprise you with AWNBA play to
• 10:59
  finish up the pod. So looking toward tonight, guys,
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  3 pack overall. Let's try to get 2 out of three
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  of these Major League Baseball players.
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  First one for me, 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, let's
• 11:09
  look at the Pittsburgh Pirates visiting the Detroit Tigers.
• 11:13
  Now setting the stage for this one.
• 11:15
  The Pirates come in 29 and 44 on the year, just dropped three or
• 11:19
  four against the Cubs. They lost that series finale 3
• 11:22
  to 2 and extra innings as a + 125 row dog.
• 11:25
  Tigers 46 and 27 having a great year.
• 11:28
  They did just drop two or three though.
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  Against the Reds. They lost 8:00 to 4:00 on Sunday
• 11:33
  as a -185 home favorite. So for tonight's interleague
• 11:37
  series opener, the Pirates are going to go with the lefty
• 11:39
  Bailey Falter. He's been pretty good this year.
• 11:41
  Five and three 3.36 ERA. Tigers.
• 11:44
  Meanwhile, going with the righty Casey Mize, he's been really
• 11:47
  good. Six and two 2.95 ERA.
• 11:51
  So what have you seen across the market here?
• 11:52
  Well, this one opened with Detroit as you would expect, a
• 11:55
  pretty big favorite -190 I saw Pittsburgh around a + 170 Rd.
• 12:00
  dog and the wise guys are saying we know it's a big number, but
• 12:03
  we're laying it and that's what I'm doing.
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  Give me Detroit here guys. We've seen the Tigers get
• 12:07
  steamed up -190 Now up to -200 I got Detroit -200 at Bet MGM.
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  Shop around. You do have some books as high
• 12:15
  as -210 I see one book I believe like 217.
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  So try to get as low as you can there.
• 12:21
  And I do believe the -200 should still be available at Bet MGM.
• 12:25
  Now, if you look at the bat, splits look pretty 1 sided and
• 12:28
  sharp in favor of Detroit. 86% of bets, 89% of dollars at
• 12:34
  DraftKings at Circa, 92% of bets, 98% of dollars.
• 12:38
  So low bets, higher dollars at both DraftKings and Circa.
• 12:42
  And then I got a lot of system matches.
• 12:43
  Actually have 16 system matches on Detroit, if you can believe
• 12:46
  it. Here's some of the top ones.
• 12:48
  Big home favorites -200 or more. Who made the playoffs the
• 12:52
  previous year? Those teams are 72 and 1979
• 12:57
  percent, 10% ROI. Home favor the line move in
• 13:00
  their direction. Who made the playoffs the
• 13:01
  previous year? 151 and 7367% with a 7% ROI.
• 13:07
  When both teams are coming off a day off, take the favorite 72
• 13:11
  and 3965 percent, 6% ROI. If you isolate Detroit in the
• 13:16
  spot, they're 18 and 772 percent, 25% ROI off a loss this
• 13:22
  year. They're the third best bounce
• 13:24
  back team, quote UN quote, in baseball.
• 13:26
  And they're also 29 and 1271% with a 23% ROI against teams who
• 13:32
  missed the playoffs the previous years.
• 13:33
  They've done pretty well cleaning up against, quote, UN
• 13:36
  quote, bad teams. Now, Detroit does have that
• 13:38
  interleague favorite value, lack of familiarity benefiting quote
• 13:41
  UN quote the better team. They also have a favorite low
• 13:44
  total correlative betting system match here because they're
• 13:48
  upwards of -200 total is just 8. So if your amount of expected
• 13:52
  run scored more likely to come from quote UN quote the better
• 13:54
  team who's expected to win. Detroit does have a much better
• 13:58
  offense. 13251 on the year, 85 homers, 351 run scored.
• 14:03
  Pirates only hitting 225 on the year. 50 homers, 232 run scored.
• 14:08
  Oh by the way Detroit is hitting 272 against lefties this year.
• 14:13
  That's the best in baseball against southpaws and Casey Mize
• 14:17
  in particular. 3 and O at home this year. 1.54 ERA.
• 14:21
  Detroit is 24 and 11 at home. Pittsburgh, only 10 and 25 on
• 14:25
  the road. And oh, by the way, 11% sharp
• 14:29
  mush edge in favor of Detroit at Juice Reel.
• 14:32
  So the sharper betters with the Juice Reel app are going Tigers,
• 14:34
  and that's where I'm going. So again, they're as high as
• 14:37
  -210 -, 220 even. But if you didn't have access to
• 14:40
  Bet MGM, you can still get Detroit -200 that's what I got.
• 14:44
  Tigers, Let's get it done -200 Next one for you. 8:05 PM
• 14:49
  Eastern Time, first pitch, the Brew Crew visiting the Chicago
• 14:53
  Cubs. Now, Brewers come in 39 and 34
• 14:56
  in the year, just took three or four against the Cardinals.
• 14:59
  They won that series finale 3 to 2 as a -140 home favorite.
• 15:03
  Meanwhile, the Cubbies, 44 and 28 on the year, just took three
• 15:07
  or four against the Pirates. They won that series finale 3 to
• 15:10
  2 and extras as a -150 home favorite.
• 15:13
  So for tonight's series opener, we have the Brewers going with
• 15:16
  the righty Chad Patrick. He's three and six with a 3.25
• 15:20
  ERA. Cubs, meanwhile, are going to go
• 15:22
  with the righty Ben Brown. He's three and five with a 5.71
• 15:26
  ERA. Now, what have we seen across
• 15:28
  the market for this one? Will this game open?
• 15:30
  Cubbies at Wrigley Round A -? 145 home favorite.
• 15:34
  Milwaukee around a + 125 Rd. dog.
• 15:37
  And we've seen nothing but sharp money laying with the Cubs.
• 15:41
  Cubs have gotten steamed up now -145 up to -155 some shops even
• 15:46
  as high as -160 I got Cubs -156 at FanDuel.
• 15:51
  That should still be available. But again, get that best price.
• 15:55
  Use your odds logic live odds page so you can again go to
• 16:00
  oddslogic.com/josh 123 and get that best price for every single
• 16:04
  game. Makes makes shopping your own
• 16:07
  for the best price very, very easy.
• 16:09
  But again, some looks as high as -160 Cubs look like they got
• 16:13
  pretty good bet splits at DraftKings. 77% of bets, 83% of
• 16:18
  dollars at Circa, 78% of bets, 99% of dollars.
• 16:22
  So low bets, higher dollars at both DraftKings and Circa, which
• 16:26
  is what you always like to see when both teams are coming off a
• 16:29
  win, which is the case here. Take the home favorite.
• 16:32
  That system is 37 and 1769 percent, 12% ROI, both coming
• 16:38
  off a day off. Take the favorite, 65 percent,
• 16:41
  6% ROI. Cubs, by the way, they are the
• 16:44
  number one chalk team in baseball.
• 16:46
  When they're a favorite, they're 35 and 1471% with a 15% ROI.
• 16:52
  Hopefully the Cubs bats can show up tonight.
• 16:54
  They're hitting 254 on the year, 97 homers, 385 runs scored.
• 16:59
  Milwaukee hitting 236. Only 65 homers and 316 runs
• 17:04
  scored. Cubs, by the way, are hitting
• 17:05
  256 against Radies. That's the 7th best in baseball.
• 17:09
  Brewers only hitting 234 against righties.
• 17:11
  That ranks 24th. If this is a bullpen game,
• 17:14
  hopefully you know the Cubs will come through for us because they
• 17:17
  do have the 5th best bullpen in baseball. 3.16 ERA.
• 17:21
  Brewers have a bullpen of 4.28 ERA.
• 17:25
  Cubs also, knock on wood, play pretty well at Wrigley. 23 and
• 17:28
  12 at home. Brewers only 16 and 19 on the
• 17:32
  road. So big steam in favor of the
• 17:34
  Cubs. Lot of system matches.
• 17:36
  Let's see if the Cubs can get a win at Wrigley for us.
• 17:38
  I got Chicago at -156 Last bit of the night for baseball before
• 17:44
  we get to WNBA, let's go to Texas.
• 17:47
  Kansas City Royals visiting the Texas Rangers, 8 O 5:00 PM
• 17:50
  Eastern Time, First pitch. Now the Royals come in 34 and 38
• 17:55
  on the year. They're bad, then they're really
• 17:57
  good now they're bad again. They've just been very, very
• 17:59
  streaky. Just got swept at home by the
• 18:01
  A's. That's pretty pathetic.
• 18:03
  Drop in the series finale, 3 to 2 as a -150 home favorite.
• 18:07
  Meanwhile, the Rangers, 36 and 36, back to 500, just swept the
• 18:11
  White Sox. They won that series finale 2 to
• 18:13
  one, taking care of business as a -165 home favorite.
• 18:17
  So pitching match up here we have the Royals going with the
• 18:20
  ready Seth Lugo. He's three and five with a 3.18
• 18:24
  ERA. Rangers, meanwhile, going to go
• 18:25
  with the ready Jack Lighter four and three with a 3.88 ERA.
• 18:29
  Now what are we seeing across the market here?
• 18:32
  Well, if you like the Cubs and their steam, I think you like
• 18:34
  the Texas Rangers here in this spot.
• 18:37
  Rangers open this game -120 Kansas City around a + 100 Rd.
• 18:42
  dog. Now we're seeing Texas up to
• 18:44
  around -130 -, 135, some shops even closing in -140 so nothing
• 18:49
  but one way steam in favor of the Rangers at DraftKings are
• 18:53
  getting around 2/3 of bets in dollars, so both the pro and Joe
• 18:55
  bet split, laying it with the modest chalk on the Rangers at
• 18:59
  home. I do have 8 system matches on
• 19:01
  Texas Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing a team who
• 19:06
  made the playoffs the previous year.
• 19:09
  So it's kind of like you would think they'd be bad against the
• 19:11
  good playoff team, but it's more of maybe, you know, getting
• 19:13
  getting, you know, kind of, I don't know, focused and and kind
• 19:17
  of playing well against a good team.
• 19:19
  That system this year is 44 and 2366%.
• 19:24
  Thirteen percent ROI, non division home favorites off a
• 19:27
  win with steam $0.05 or more, one O 5 and 5566% with a 4% ROI
• 19:33
  when both teams are coming off a day off, take the favorite 65
• 19:36
  percent, 6% ROI. And then in particular with the
• 19:39
  Rangers, they've done well in the spot, knock on wood, but
• 19:43
  they're 25 and 1268% with an 11% ROI as a favorite.
• 19:48
  That's the third best chalk team in baseball.
• 19:50
  And they're also 19 and 676 percent, 23% ROI as a home
• 19:55
  favorite, the second best home favorite in baseball.
• 19:58
  Rangers do have the more explosive bats. 76 homers, 265
• 20:03
  runs scored. Royals only 46 homers and 237
• 20:06
  runs scored. Lighter has been better at home
• 20:09
  than on the road. On the road one and two, 4.23
• 20:12
  ERA, at home three and one 3.54 ERA.
• 20:16
  And with Lugo at home two and three 2.72 ERA.
• 20:21
  But on the road 1 and 2 four point O 7 ERA.
• 20:24
  So I want to backlighter at home and fade Lugo on the road and
• 20:27
  then classic home Rd. splits. Texas is 23 and 13 at home,
• 20:31
  Kansas City just 15 and 19 on the road.
• 20:34
  So big steam in favor of the Rangers.
• 20:36
  Some good system matches here. Let's hope that the offense
• 20:39
  shows up. I got Texas at -130 at Bet MGM.
• 20:43
  Shop around. You have some books closing in
• 20:45
  on -140 at this point. So Tigers, Cubs, Rangers, we
• 20:49
  let's find a way to hopefully get 2 out of those those three.
• 20:53
  Now, last bat of the night WNBA, we got six games overall today
• 20:59
  and I am AWNBA better, but I try to be extremely selective and I
• 21:05
  try to just play games that really just kind of just scream
• 21:08
  at me. So I did find one tonight.
• 21:10
  It's an 8 O clock game between the Golden State Valkyries.
• 21:14
  They're a brand new team, expansion team visiting the
• 21:16
  Dallas Wings. Now the Valkyries coming in this
• 21:19
  game five and five and they've won three in a row.
• 21:23
  The Dallas Wings are one and 11 and they've lost, I believe like
• 21:28
  7 or eight in a row. So who's favorite here?
• 21:32
  You would think the team that's 500 and is 1, three straight or
• 21:34
  the team that's one and 11 and has lost seven straight.
• 21:38
  You would say it's the 500 team that's one, three in a row,
• 21:40
  right? Nope.
• 21:42
  Guys, this one is disgusting. It's hazmat.
• 21:45
  It's so radioactive, you got to put on a hazmat suit to touch
• 21:48
  it. But the Dallas Wings look really
• 21:50
  sharp tonight. Dallas Wings, even though
• 21:52
  they're 1:00 and 11:00 and have lost seven straight, they open
• 21:55
  this game as a very short 1 1/2 point home favorite.
• 21:59
  And now we've seen the Wings get up to -3 or even -3 1/2.
• 22:03
  So first thing I ask you is why is this line #1 opening with
• 22:08
  Dallas favorite if they're one and 11 have been so terrible,
• 22:11
  and why are they becoming more of a favorite?
• 22:13
  Well, it tells me it's because we got smart money hitting the
• 22:15
  Dallas Wings. If you look over at Circa, the
• 22:18
  Wings are only getting 50% of money line bets, but 80% of
• 22:22
  money line dollars. They're getting 75% of spread
• 22:26
  bets, but 98% of spread dollars. So both spread and money line
• 22:30
  look pretty good in favor of the wings, which coincides with the
• 22:32
  line move in their favor. Now I'm on the money line here.
• 22:36
  You know, dust off the old money line.
• 22:38
  Short favorite system. If the Dallas Wings win by 1-2
• 22:41
  or three and I lay a three or three and a half and push or
• 22:43
  lose, I'll have tough, tough time sleeping tonight.
• 22:47
  So I did go wings on the money line at -165 at Caesar's.
• 22:51
  Shop around. Some books are closer to -170
• 22:54
  but other factors here, the wings, aside from just being
• 22:57
  really sharp and really gross, which I have learned to like
• 23:01
  over time, they have a one day rest advantage.
• 23:03
  They last played on the 13th versus the 14th for the
• 23:08
  Valkyries. And also, if you'll get some
• 23:11
  system matches here, if you are a favorite straight up with a
• 23:16
  line move in your direction and you're coming off a loss, so
• 23:19
  you're expected to win the game, the lines moving in your
• 23:21
  direction and you're off a loss bounce back spot, that system is
• 23:24
  14 and four straight up this year, 78 percent, 7% ROI.
• 23:30
  Since the start of last year, it's 59 and 18 straight up, 77
• 23:33
  percent, 10% ROI. So this spot when you are
• 23:37
  favored off a loss with a line move, it's been pretty good
• 23:42
  historically. So we got a lot of money hitting
• 23:45
  Dallas. It's gross.
• 23:46
  I get it. They're 1:00 and 11:00.
• 23:48
  If you don't want to play it, I'm not going to blame you.
• 23:50
  But this looks pretty sharp to me.
• 23:51
  So I'm going to see if we can maybe win our our first official
• 23:55
  WNBA bet of the year. I'm on the Dallas Wings money
• 23:58
  line at -165 S Panthers money line, Dallas Wings money line,
• 24:04
  Detroit Cubs and Texas money lines, A5 pack overall.
• 24:08
  Let's see if we can get three of them and eke out a winning
• 24:10
  night. So that about does it for
• 24:13
  episode 300, a big pod today, Episode 300 of the ASG pod
• 24:17
  powered by rhythm. Of course.
• 24:18
  This is the part of the pod where you wrap things up.
• 24:21
  And I start first, as always, by saying thank you.
• 24:24
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
• 24:26
  busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
• 24:29
  sharp, data-driven breakdowns of me.
• 24:31
  If you've come to enjoy the pod, look forward to the pod dropping
• 24:35
  each day, whether your tail fade, pick and choose or just
• 24:37
  sit back and want some breakdowns.
• 24:40
  Thank you. For whatever reason, you tune
• 24:42
  in. I hope you tune in because you
• 24:43
  feel like they're just, you know, actionable insights.
• 24:47
  But if that's the case, you enjoy the pod and you want to
• 24:49
  help me grow the pod, could you please do me a solid give it a
• 24:52
  five star review on Spotify or iTunes if you want to click the
• 24:56
  follow button. That way you get alerted as soon
• 24:58
  as it drops each day you'll get a pop up on your smartphone or
• 25:01
  if you want to leave a nice comment under the review section
• 25:03
  or recommend the pod to a friend, word of mouth.
• 25:06
  I would very much appreciate any of those things.
• 25:10
  Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
• 25:13
  sharp contrarian betting. Now looking at line movement
• 25:16
  system matches, taking a contrarian approach, well, guess
• 25:19
  what? If you want to learn more about
• 25:21
  data-driven betting, or you know someone in your life who could
• 25:23
  use a few data-driven tips or you just want to support the
• 25:26
  pod, let me know you appreciate the insights.
• 25:28
  You know what I'd love for you to do?
• 25:30
  I'd love for you to go to Amazon.com and then type in the
• 25:33
  the everything Guide to sports betting.
• 25:35
  It's the first book I ever wrote.
• 25:37
  Let's get everything I've learned in the industry, how
• 25:39
  lines are set, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
• 25:42
  action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet in person or
• 25:44
  online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
• 25:47
  management plan. It's all included in the
• 25:49
  everything guide to sports betting.
• 25:51
  And while you're at it, stay on Amazon.com and then type in the
• 25:55
  NFL sharp betting playbook. That's my new baby.
• 25:58
  It comes out a little less than two months from from right now.
• 26:01
  Comes out the 12th of August. If you were interested in pre
• 26:05
  ordering a copy, a pre sale, I would very much love that.
• 26:09
  You'd make me happy. You would make my publisher
• 26:11
  triumph books very happy. But again, pick up the
• 26:14
  everything guide or the sharp betting playbook.
• 26:16
  Bring them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you and I'll
• 26:19
  buy you a beer or ginger ale or truly or whatever you want and
• 26:23
  we'll sweat some games together. Get some nachos while we're at
• 26:26
  it. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
• 26:28
  and juice real yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
• 26:30
  you waiting for? My two favorite sports betting
• 26:32
  apps. They help me win.
• 26:33
  They're going to help you win because they're all based on
• 26:35
  data. Is it data or data?
• 26:38
  You know how people say that tomato tomato, I guess, but
• 26:40
  anyway, rhythm for their AI back models and predictions for game
• 26:43
  bets and player props for WNBA for NBA Finals right now for
• 26:48
  baseball and of course, before you know it, what I really love
• 26:51
  them for is their football models.
• 26:52
  So stay tuned for that in a couple months, but then also
• 26:55
  juice real great all-encompassing sports betting
• 26:58
  app. I'm going to pass the hat.
• 27:00
  If you enjoy this pod, I'd love for you guys to sign up to get
• 27:03
  the All Systems Go official best bet picks on the Juice Reel app.
• 27:07
  That's the only place they're posted and they cost you $4.99 a
• 27:11
  week, a $5.00 bill. Hopefully you feel like these
• 27:14
  insights are worth a dollar an episode because this pod is
• 27:16
  free. If you wanted to sign up and get
• 27:18
  those best bets, one, you'll support the pod #2 hopefully
• 27:23
  you'll get some better lines as I get bet these games earlier in
• 27:25
  the day before the pod comes out and hopefully get some closing
• 27:28
  line value. They actually just added CLV
• 27:31
  data or data, whatever you want to call it for every game you
• 27:34
  bet. So now you can see in green the
• 27:36
  percentage of of beating the closing line or getting beat by
• 27:39
  the closing line. Great new feature by juice reel,
• 27:42
  but you can get the robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp mush
• 27:46
  indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
• 27:48
  the best line future sync up your books to the app.
• 27:51
  Get a running report card of your action.
• 27:53
  It's all available when you download Juice reel.
• 27:55
  So download rhythm, download Juice reel, give him a five star
• 27:58
  review in the App Store. Next, do you have a live odds
• 28:01
  page? Well, we really hit every sport
• 28:04
  today. WNBANHL Baseball.
• 28:06
  If you don't have a live odds page, I don't know how you're
• 28:08
  betting these games because you got to know one.
• 28:10
  What did the line open at? The most basic question, where
• 28:13
  is it right now? Which direction has it moved?
• 28:15
  What were the moves in between? Pull up the line history.
• 28:18
  But most importantly, a live odds page allows you to track
• 28:20
  the market. As soon as a line changes, it
• 28:23
  gets lit up in red. You can identify Steam, you can
• 28:26
  shop for the best sign, get the best price, all available to you
• 28:29
  when you have a live odds page. So I would like for you guys to
• 28:32
  give Odds Logic a shot. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
• 28:37
  123. That'll give you 7 day free
• 28:39
  trial and then 50% off your first month of service.
• 28:42
  Again, that's Odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 28:47
  So that about does it for episode 300, the big 300.
• 28:51
  Can you believe it? Maybe we'll have a good night
• 28:53
  for the episode 300 hopefully. But anyway, lastly, a couple of
• 28:58
  final words of wisdom, words of advice.
• 29:00
  Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 29:04
  Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
• 29:06
  Sun down in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Planers Park
• 29:10
  Casino or MGM Springfield or the Nash and my neck of the Woods in
• 29:14
  Nashville, New Hampshire. Or of course, out in the desert
• 29:16
  where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends
• 29:19
  his number runners, where the lowest true as possible is found
• 29:21
  at the South Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 29:24
  plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
• 29:26
  When you cash a big ticket at Circa, you're going to walk up
• 29:28
  to me, show me a nice Dodgers ticket from last night, and
• 29:32
  guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
• 29:34
  you will post about the book. Sweat some, sweat, some sharp
• 29:36
  contrarian plays. Together as always, guys.
• 29:39
  One in 1-2 and OO and 2/1 and 2/2 and 1/3 and OO and three.
• 29:45
  Good night, bad night, Hot, cold, grinding somewhere in the
• 29:47
  middle. We just got to continue to stick
• 29:49
  to the model, stick to the blueprint.
• 29:51
  Never get too high when we're doing well, never get too low
• 29:54
  and we're struggling. Just got to stay grinders with
• 29:56
  blinders. As an old sports betting friend
• 29:58
  of mine used to say, if we can do that, stay true to the model
• 30:02
  and only bet games that fit that model against the public with
• 30:05
  the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that
• 30:08
  closing line value. If we can do that long term, I'm
• 30:11
  confident we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 30:14
  So have a great Tuesday night everybody.
• 30:16
  See if we can get some winners here on the hardwood, on the
• 30:19
  diamonds, on the ice and we'll be right back at it tomorrow for
• 30:23
  episode 3 O one on a big Wednesday edition of the all
• 30:26
  systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 30:29
  Good luck everybody, and have a great, great, great, great
• 30:32
  Tuesday night.