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Can Gadi Eisenkot Be Israel's Next Prime Minister? · Israel Policy Pod

• 0:04
  Neri: Shalom and welcome to the Israel Policy Pod.
• 0:07
  Neri: I'm Neri Zilber, a journalist based in Tel Aviv and a policy advisor to Israel Policy Forum.
• 0:12
  Neri: Tal Schneider is back with us this week to talk Israeli politics with Election Day now, just two weeks away.
• 0:20
  Neri: Tal is, of course, a diplomatic and political correspondent for the Times of Israel and Zman Israel, and the author of the recent Hebrew language book titled Israel's Women Warriors: Women at the Front of the October 7th War.
• 0:35
  Neri: We talk about our new book and the role women played on and after October 7th at the very top of our conversation, before we switch to the election race, where we focus primarily on one Gadi Eisencott, the presumptive nominee of the opposition, to replace Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister.
• 0:54
  Neri: Can Isencott actually win?
• 0:56
  Neri: And what kind of Prime Minister will he be if he actually wins?
• 1:00
  Neri: All great questions that Tal helped us unpack.
• 1:04
  Neri: But first, let's do a little reporter's notebook segment where I take you behind the scenes and on the ground into the stories that are shaping current events and the big policy moves here in Israel and beyond.
• 1:16
  Neri: So, uh a year ago, almost exactly, in September 2025, I was invited to take part in a conference in Singapore.
• 1:24
  Neri: And shout out to the great team over there at the Middle East Institute for the really kind invitation to their conference last year.
• 1:31
  Neri: They're also podcast listeners, as it turns out.
• 1:34
  Neri: It was uh also very cool to be back in Singapore after over 30 years away, but I think that's a story for another time and possibly another podcast.
• 1:44
  Neri: But I uh I digressed uh at the conference uh back last year.
• 1:48
  Neri: I was asked a question that has stuck with me ever since, not because of the question.
• 1:53
  Neri: It's one that I get asked all the time, and not even by the answer that I gave at the time, but what happened afterwards?
• 2:02
  Neri: So let's break it all down.
• 2:05
  Neri: First, the question.
• 2:06
  Neri: Uh, like I said, the most common one, the biggest one, the one that's asked all the time, and not just on pods focusing on Israel policy, but the question was: how has BB survived?
• 2:19
  Neri: How is he still a prime minister after presiding over the worst and deadliest attack on Jews since the Holocaust?
• 2:27
  Neri: And now, uh heading into an election, if we believe the polls, how is it even this close?
• 2:32
  Neri: How is BB still in this?
• 2:34
  Neri: That's the question.
• 2:35
  Neri: Uh and like I said, it's one you hear constantly, uh not just at conferences in Singapore, but in everyday conversation here in Israel as well.
• 2:43
  Neri: This thing, this election, shouldn't even be this close.
• 2:46
  Neri: BB should have been done long, long ago.
• 2:50
  Neri: Now it's obvious, with an election just two weeks away, he's not.
• 2:54
  Neri: So okay then.
• 2:56
  Neri: That was the question.
• 2:57
  Neri: What was my answer back in September 2025?
• 3:01
  Neri: Uh first, I cracked a joke about how uh PhDs will be written on this topic for decades to come, but from the psychology departments of colleges and universities, not the poly side departments.
• 3:14
  Neri: Uh that was a joke, got moderate laughs, which is fine.
• 3:17
  Neri: It was a moderate joke.
• 3:19
  Neri: But there is, all kidding aside, a major psychological component to all this when Netanyahu is involved.
• 3:26
  Neri: Uh his refusal, his adamant refusal to take any responsibility for October 7th uh dates from the very, very beginning of the war and then the Hamas attack.
• 3:38
  Neri: This was a clear political strategy, but also a personal and a psychological choice that he made.
• 3:45
  Neri: Everyone else is to blame for the attack.
• 3:48
  Neri: The security chiefs and IDF generals, the anti-government protesters on the streets in the months leading up to October 7th, the opposition, the Supreme Court, the Attorney General.
• 3:59
  Neri: Uh you think I'm kidding, but uh in his mind and in his supporters' minds, everyone but the Prime Minister was responsible for October 7th.
• 4:08
  Neri: And yes, uh obviously Netanyahu was the Prime Minister in charge of Israel, not just on the morning of October 7th, but in the uh preceding 14 years more or less uh preceding the attack.
• 4:20
  Neri: Uh so again, you think I'm kidding, but I'm not.
• 4:23
  Neri: This is the narrative, this is what they believe.
• 4:27
  Neri: So you combine all this with the opposition uh at the time and even some would say in the current moment, that was either feckless or craven.
• 4:36
  Neri: Uh so you have to remember Benny Gans joining Bibi's emergency wartime government a few days into the war and stabilizing Netanyahu's government, uh, or later on, Gidon Sao crossing the lines and defecting from the opposition to the coalition.
• 4:50
  Neri: Uh, not a given at all that these things actually happened.
• 4:54
  Neri: Uh, and some would argue it should have been and could have been the other way around.
• 4:58
  Neri: Uh, but obviously it did not happen that way.
• 5:01
  Neri: You also at the time and even now, but it really last year and over the past three years had an exhausted and traumatized country and citizenry.
• 5:10
  Neri: Obviously, during wartime, rockets and missiles raining down on Israel.
• 5:14
  Neri: You had uh Army Reserve duty uh by thousands, tens of thousands of Israelis and hundreds and hundreds of days, in some cases, that impacted families across the country.
• 5:25
  Neri: Uh, and you really had a population also that rallied, truly rallied, around the flag.
• 5:30
  Neri: But bottom line, no mass protests really materialized, except in a few cases, in a few moments, and that was really over the hostage issue.
• 5:38
  Neri: Bibi and his government basically played for time uh over the past three years.
• 5:42
  Neri: They waited everyone else out, including, by the way, the Biden administration, uh, and they waged a successful war of attrition, I'd argue, against the Israeli public as well.
• 5:53
  Neri: So no mass protests, no coalition defections, a powerful pro-Netanyahu media campaign deflecting all blame.
• 6:01
  Neri: Uh, all of this helped.
• 6:02
  Neri: Uh, and yes, of course, Netanyahu, we have to give him credit.
• 6:05
  Neri: Uh, a generational political talent actually pulling all of this off.
• 6:10
  Neri: And really, at the end, it's a lot harder to topple a government in Israel than people think, uh, just in terms of the actual Israeli political system and parliamentary procedure here.
• 6:20
  Neri: So, uh, anyway, all of this combined is basically what I said a year ago back in Singapore, uh, in answer to the question.
• 6:28
  Neri: Uh, so what happened afterwards?
• 6:30
  Neri: So uh the Israeli ambassador to Singapore at the time, Eli Chazan, uh, was sitting in the front row listening to all of this uh during the conference.
• 6:39
  Neri: Before he took up uh the ambassador post in Singapore, Eli had been a close advisor to Netanyahu and Gidon Sah, as it happens.
• 6:48
  Neri: And despite being a political appointee uh to the post of ambassador, he was actually during this time there uh quite an effective and professional diplomat, and quite an effective and professional ambassador, uh, and also a nice guy, has to be said.
• 7:03
  Neri: So Eli uh comes up to me after my panel, uh, and I'm I'm already expecting the worst.
• 7:08
  Neri: Mind you, I've never met the guy before.
• 7:10
  Neri: Uh and he comes up and he says, uh, nice talk, Neri, uh very gracious.
• 7:15
  Neri: But the question about how BB has been able to survive, you missed the most important part.
• 7:21
  Neri: And Ellie says, BB is still in power because Israel, after October 7th, is winning on the battlefield across the entire Middle East.
• 7:31
  Neri: All the stuff you mentioned, secondary.
• 7:34
  Neri: Secondary, none of them would have been worth anything without that one single fact.
• 7:39
  Neri: Uh we're winning on the battlefield.
• 7:42
  Neri: So uh that conversation with Eli Hazan has stuck with me for for the past year, believe me.
• 7:47
  Neri: Uh Israelis, or at least enough Israelis, believe Netanyahu on the campaign trail as we speak, when he says on a daily basis that he's changed the face of the Middle East over the last three years.
• 8:01
  Neri: Enough Israelis believe him when he says Israel has never been stronger and Israel enemies have never been weaker in Gaza, in Lebanon, and Syria and Iran and beyond.
• 8:11
  Neri: And enough Israelis believe Netanyahu when he says that, well, Israel may have had a bad morning on October 7th, understatement, I know, but that was all the fault of the IDF and the Shinbet and the generals and the spy chiefs and pretty much everyone else.
• 8:27
  Neri: But everything that has happened after that bad morning of October 7th, all these victories across the battlefields of the Middle East, that was me, Bibi Netanyahu, Mr.
• 8:37
  Neri: Security.
• 8:38
  Neri: I led you to all that, all those victories.
• 8:41
  Neri: So when you cut through all the noise, Netanyahu's main pitch now to the voters is vote for me again so I can actually finish the job.
• 8:51
  Neri: On October 27th, we'll see really if enough Israelis believe this pitch by Bibi Netanyahu.
• 8:58
  Neri: We'll find out.
• 8:59
  Neri: With that, let's get to Tal Schneider.
• 9:05
  Neri: Hi, Tal.
• 9:06
  Neri: Welcome back to the pod.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Hi, Analy, good to be here.
• 9:10
  Neri: Uh, it's great to have you back, Tal.
• 9:11
  Neri: It's been uh far too long.
• 9:14
  Neri: And I really wanted to have you on this week talk uh politics and the election, and specifically about Gadi Eisenkot, uh very important character in all of this.
• 9:22
  Neri: Uh, but before we get to the election and the politics, um, I really wanted to take a look back briefly at last week's three-year anniversary to the October 7th attack.
• 9:32
  Neri: Uh, you wrote a book that recently came out in Hebrew called Israel's Women Warriors, Women at the Front of the October 7th War.
• 9:41
  Neri: It's a really unique angle uh to cover the Hamas attack and then the subsequent wars through this prism of women fighting.
• 9:50
  Neri: So I guess the first question to you, Tal, about your new book.
• 9:53
  Neri: Why did you choose to write it?
• 9:55
  Neri: What was the motivation on your end?
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so obviously the book is about women in combat, meaning the women that were in the fighting, not just all of the women of Israel who were, you know, under uh such a stress and such imminent uh massacre and horrific scenes that day.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I took my mission to write about the women in uniforms, meaning soldiers, uh, women that uh they have uh IDF careers, uh, but also police officers and women in uh the uh Israel's uh border police, which were very important that day.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: Many of them had combat training, and because of the chaos of the massacre, of the day of the massacre, women that were, you know, according to IDF, they were part of defense forces.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: They were not part of offense forces, but because of the chaos that ensued that day, they took their mission into their hands and fought, you know, terrorists.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: You'll be talking about women in the tanks that drove over terrorists, women in the tanks that uh were uh fighting terrorists that day, and all over the region.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: So this is a phenomenon that you've seen from the bottom of the south, the border with Egypt all the way up to Ashkel on the Zakim area, where women took it to their hands to kill terrorists and you know, uh defend some of the bases, but also take on the offense.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: And this is very rare because we had, you know, when you're asking about my mission, we knew in the history books that we had women fighters in the Israel's underground uh era, Ahagana, Lechia, Etzel, where before the country was fighting.
• 11:36
  Neri: Before the states.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: There were women fighting.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: Those women back then were not just part of defense uh operations.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: They were bumping bridges, they were very active in some of the combat uh zones, and about 100 women were taken captive at that time, both uh warriors, Excel warriors in Ahagana, but also civilian women.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I thought to myself that the Israeli society is not too informed about what took place in 1948, and how come those women who were fighters, when SAL, when IDF was formed back in 1948, they were set aside and they were and they, you know, Ben Gurion and the military leaders told them it's a mandatory service for every young woman, but you will not be part of the fighting force.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: And through the years, what happened?
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, they went, you know, they kind of crawled back in with court precedents, with you know, society changes, and they had to fight sometimes their parents, they had to fight their grandparents, or they had to fight their society, they had to take lawyers and fight in court for that.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: They also had to argue towards IDF, and sometimes they had to argue against rabbis and conservative groups inside Israel.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: So they took it as a mission.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, the change came slowly, but it's uh, I think it's um it's a huge phenomenon these days.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: We have thousands of women soldiers.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: People are not aware of that, but 21% of the combat power of IDF is women.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_00: 21%, you know, you know, let that sink in.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_00: Every fifth combat soldier in Israel is a woman.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's uh that includes also, as I said, border police, but pilots, air defense systems, tanks, and uh intelligence gathering, which is a combat force, it's not just uh intelligence and so on and so forth.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: You have mixed gender battal yarns across the borders, and you had a rescue operation, they're all combative, you know, combat women.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Lots of paramedics are women, and they also, you know, they take on combat roles.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: So quite amazing.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: And we've seen this is something that in 2023 was surprising to the Israeli public.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: They were not aware that it's 21% of the of the combat power are women.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: So the book goes in those two parallels.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: What happened in history, you know, how how did the social change happen, took place, but also specific events, specific um battles on October 7th and later on inside Gaza and Lebanon where women participated in offense, not just difference.
• 14:20
  Neri: And is your sense that they don't get as much attention as they should, that a lot of the coverage, especially in the media, but also amongst society at large, is mostly focused on the men going off and fighting, the boys going off and fighting, and less the women, less the girls?
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I actually think they get uh a lot of coverage, but the coverage usually focuses on the religious aspect of what the men are expected to do when they meet a woman in an armored vehicle because she's a paramedics and she takes care of their lives.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, how it is it working for them to stay together uh inside one very small armored vehicle?
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: How you know it's all it's all taken from the point of view of the huge controversy.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, the the religious secular controversy, and also um, you know, some of the coverage goes into is this good for Israel society, is it bad for Israel society?
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's the coverage doesn't deal with performance per se.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: Unless when you talk about October 7th, I think people were surprised for the tanks battle down in the area of Kerem Shalom, the the southern part, where the women in the tanks basically drove over terrorists over the road and and kind of I don't want to say I don't want to say saved lives because there was a massacre going on in Kholit uh kibbutz.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's a very difficult uh battle over there.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: But they were active, they were proactive, they were taking care of business as you you may call it, and it's uh they call it now the first uh uh women in tanks battle around the world.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so it has a huge impression on the Israeli public, but uh it was important for me to stress that it didn't happen just in Keram Shalom and Kholit.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: It also happened in Zikim, in Urim.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: In uh obviously, we had seven soldiers who were abducted to Gaza, very young women, they were without weapons.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, there were seven of them.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: One was released um 18 days after the massacre in a military operation.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: Another one, Noah Marziano, was murdered by a doctor inside Schifa hospital.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: He murdered a captive woman, a soldier, and five of them sat in captivity for around 480 days, which is another, you know, unprecedented event in the history of this country, unless you go to, as I said earlier, the undergrounds where women sat in the Syrian and the Egyptian uh captivity for almost a year.
• 16:54
  Neri: Yeah, all of us uh very aware of the courageous five um Tatspitaniyot, the uh the field spotters that were sitting in uh on the border, uh, and their their base was overrun, obviously, and they were taken in captivity.
• 17:07
  Neri: All of us saw the images and they got out.
• 17:10
  Neri: And they got out, uh, thankfully.
• 17:12
  Neri: Final question, Tal.
• 17:14
  Neri: You focus a lot of attention um in one of the chapters in the book about the Kakal Battalion.
• 17:20
  Neri: This is a mixed gender, um, essentially infantry force that was sitting on the Egyptian border uh on the morning of October 7th, and they were led by this uh courageous woman, woman, uh Oh Ben Yehuda.
• 17:32
  Neri: Right.
• 17:33
  Neri: Uh and you get into her story and and really her battle and Kalakal's battle in Sufa.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 17:40
  Neri: Right.
• 17:41
  Neri: The outpost and also the uh the kibbutz near uh nearby in the kind of southern tip of the Gaza border region.
• 17:49
  Neri: Tell us a little bit about Olben Yehuda's professionalism and actions on October 7th.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: So she happened to be up and running.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: Uh she's a lieutenant colonel, uh, the commander of Caracal Battalion, and she has a military career.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_00: She was, you know, she started as a foot soldier, a battle foot soldiers, and she, you know, she made it all the way up to the ranks of commander of the battalion.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: And early on, on October 7th, she was already up and running because she was supposed to open the gates for travelers, supposed to come in on the last day of sukkot for traveling in the area.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's a restricted area because of it's a very sensitive border with Egypt.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's a what we call peace border, but yet it's it's being watched closely by those battalions of women.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: And because she was up and running and all armored and all, you know, ready for her day job, which was a Shabbat, of course.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: Um, she got a call from a battalion commander of the Nachal, and he told her, My soldiers are under severe attack in Sufa.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_00: And she ran up to the fighting.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_00: She was not aware when she got there.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: She was not yet aware of everything that is taking place.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: And this is one of the problems that we know about those battles.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the women were fighting, but oh uh Veneuda, for example, she couldn't tell that there is a massacre going on in Kibutz Kolid, just you know, less than a kilometer from here, less than uh, I think 300 feet, or I'm not sure about the American measurements, but you know, not very far away.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, she wasn't fully aware to that.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: And um, she went into this uh outpost with soldiers to on based on the call she got from her friend, because you have to remember all of the radio operation and all of the internal um management of the military collapsed very early on.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and she wasn't getting any orders.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: She just jumped into the fire.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: Uh she went into with with her Jeep, uh, she went into inside the outpost, she got shot with RPG, and she backed out, then she went up above, and she saw the uh terrorist coming in in hundreds.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: She shot them lao rocket.
• 20:06
  Neri: Yeah, basically, like kind of like an RPG.
• 20:09
  Neri: It's like a shoulder-fired missile.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: Then a Toyota that was filled with ammunition, and terrorists were standing there.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: She aimed towards that, and there was, you know, a big um you know um explosion with all the ammunition.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: And and I think about 10 terrorists that were standing nearby the Toyota just, you know, blew up with that.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_00: She managed to hold off the entire group of people that were running towards them.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_00: She kind of saw it from afar.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: It wasn't very close to her, but still, she she she shot it and she you know pointed at it and she was able to, you know, do it precisely.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_00: And that caused them the terrorists to kind of stop.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: But then she had to deal with terrorists that were inside the Sufa outpost.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: And she wasn't able to deal with them.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: And there were 30 soldiers that were were you know inside the um safe room, like kitchen, dining hall.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: And she managed to kind of um hold things together for them uh up until 1 p.m.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_00: when special forces arrived and helped her.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, between around 8 a.m.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: until 1 p.m., she was just there with her around 10 soldiers, half men, half women, and some medics uh that she brought with her.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: Basically, out of instincts and out of, I mean, it wasn't a perfect battle or anything like that.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: But specifically, I mentioned that because we have to remember that there was a massacre going on in the kibbutz next door, which he didn't knew about at that time.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, the military held her, but also was saying, you know, there was also some problems in the area.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: But then she got the help of special forces and they took over the outpost.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: And one soldier inside the outpost died from his wounds, but 30 others came.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: Out alive, wounded, but alive.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: And uh quite an amazing, amazing scene.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: Everything is happening down there.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: It's the southern part of the road.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_00: We're in parallel, you have the tanks mission, which is all women, all three tanks with women only inside them breaking into Kholit, which you know the kibbutz I just mentioned that was under massacre.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: They broke in around 2 p.m.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: And uh yeah, I mean, as I said, you you hear those stories from all around uh all around the region, uh Zikim and Urim and Nachal O's uh mind-blowing the stories.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: And again, it's also men, of course, you know, and we're not forgetting them.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_00: No, but for women, it was very difficult to be in those jokes to begin with.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I mean, in order to be fighters, some of them had to go to the court, some of them had to fight their parents off, some of them had to, you know, uh be under this kind of coverage from the Israeli press.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: It was not easy to be there.
• 23:02
  Neri: Yeah.
• 23:02
  Neri: And uh thankfully they were, and they'd saved dozens, if not hundreds, of lives just in that one battle uh for Kalakal.
• 23:10
  Neri: Really uh extraordinary and important stories to put to the fore tal.
• 23:15
  Neri: Uh so thank you for doing that.
• 23:16
  Neri: I just wanted to touch on that, both because we just uh we just marked three years to October 7th, uh, and also your book.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for raising that up.
• 23:24
  Neri: Yeah, yeah.
• 23:24
  Neri: Your book recently came out uh in Hebrew.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_00: It will be translated and you know published in English.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh yep.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: I'm working on it.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: And uh yeah, the book is right here in Hebrew, uh right behind my shoulder, but it will come out in English, okay.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yep, it will come up in English.
• 23:40
  Neri: Let us know when that happens.
• 23:41
  Neri: Uh because I'm sure there will be a lot of a lot of people that will be very interested uh in the stories that you bring from from inside the book.
• 23:48
  Neri: Uh Tal, let's uh shift over to our normal and current issues, politics and the uh the upcoming election.
• 23:57
  Neri: Uh now just two weeks away.
• 23:59
  Neri: It's hard to believe.
• 24:00
  Neri: Yeah.
• 24:00
  Neri: You recently interviewed uh Gaudi Eisencot for the Times of Israel.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_00: It's a week ago, exactly.
• 24:05
  Neri: Okay, so that's really good because it's very current, and it came out last week and made waves.
• 24:10
  Neri: This interview with God the Eisencott in in a good way.
• 24:12
  Neri: It made waves.
• 24:13
  Neri: Uh and we should mention you were interviewing Eisencot alongside your boss, right?
• 24:18
  Neri: Uh Times of Editor, Times of Israel editor uh David Horowitz, uh, who's terrific, so we're not gonna forget David.
• 24:24
  Neri: But this interview really went all over the world, especially since it was kind of translated into English and it was very, very long and very in-depth.
• 24:31
  Neri: Um, and I have to say it's kind of it's kind of sad to say, but I'll say it so you don't have to say it.
• 24:36
  Neri: Um, it was also the rare interview here with a major political candidate that actually dealt with the substance and policies uh and not just the normal stuff that the Israeli media currently you know talks about in an election race.
• 24:50
  Neri: So Tal, let's start here uh with regard to Eisencott and this interview.
• 24:54
  Neri: What was your general impression going in and then coming out of the interview and what were the biggest takeaways that you had uh sitting down with with Gaudi?
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, just let me for you know, first and foremost, just connect the dots for you from the first part of our conversation, moving to the second part, because Gaudi Eisencott was also interviewed for my book about a year and a half ago, or almost two years ago, before he thought of running to be a prime minister.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: It was in my book.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: The reason for that is because he was one of the important chief IDFs that promoted women in the military.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: So here I give you that.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_00: He's also interviewed on record for the book.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_00: Um interesting.
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_00: This is one of the reasons that I have a direct connection with him because I interviewed him for the book.
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_00: We all know about his, you know, very sad, agonizing, painful personal story uh where he lost his son in the battle.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I, you know, it was important for me to put that up in the headline of the of the interview because I found out that many people around the world were not aware of that.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_00: I've spoken to diplomats that are based here in Israel, and they were surprised to find European diplomats, and they were shocked to realize that Gadi Isencott lost his fifth son.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, they were that.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_00: So people around the world are not fully aware that Gadi is also what we call Av Shakul, a father that lost uh a son in the fighting in Gaza on December of 2023, two months into the war.
• 26:32
  Neri: Right.
• 26:33
  Neri: And we should also mention, Tal that uh he also lost two nephews during the war.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's true.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm saying that because he sat in the security, very narrow cabinet of five people when he had to make decisions on the war while his son is in Gaza before he died, and afterwards, before he he died in battle, of course, and afterwards he went back to be in this security narrow cabinet while during his Shiva.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: During that's something that gives you, you know, when you ask about a person during the Shiva after three days, one of the ministers in it's in the interview, one of the ministers came up to him and said, We are going to have a crucial meeting tonight.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: And Gadi went up to his wife and four other kids and said, you know, they're all elder, elder kids.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_00: And he said to them, I have to take part in that.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm heading out because yes, yes.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: So when you want to talk about Gadi Eisencoat, he's very different than the leadership that we that we know.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_00: He's kind of a measured uh type of you know, person who chooses words carefully.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: Writes, you know, when you sit with him, he writes down everything and he it it felt, I mean, I since this isn't like as I said, it's not the first time, it's like probably the fifth or sixth time that I sit with him.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: Every time I see he has things that he's writing down along his side that he prepares in advance, and then when you ask him questions, he writes down.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: But I mean, it's like the conversation is more, how would you say, since I've sat with Netanyahu so many times, the conversation is less than a show, more than a discussion.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: And Netanyahu is a person on stage, and Gaudi Eisencott is the person in, you know, more of a conversation type of listening and answering.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_00: So very different from what we know.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: Again, Netanyahu has the higher self-confidence, and Gaudi is not there yet.
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_00: He's more of a quiet, uh, sorry?
• 28:40
  Neri: Like an everyman, like a more kind of normal, down-to-earth, that's his kind of personality.
• 28:45
  Neri: Even the fact, even despite the fact that he was IDF chief of staff, uh, we've all met previous IDF chiefs of staff who carry themselves very differently than Gaudi Eisencott, even.
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's true.
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_00: He's very modest.
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_00: But other than that, he's also kind of uh measured, you know, he doesn't speak in um uh hasty way.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_00: Everything is more measured and more of a kind of a consideration type of uh way of working.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh having said that, of course, campaign is very, very fast.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: You have to come up with you know issues and he has a staff for that.
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_00: Uh some of his staff are uh actually former Likudnik that he brought in to be more aggressive.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: I think the campaign they are they were running uh up until today or yesterday was more of a making no mistake type of event because he was leading in the polls and he said to himself, I have to be careful.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_00: Right now it seems to me that in the last for the last two weeks there's going to be more gloved off type of way.
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_04: Okay.
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, of course he was chief IDF under Netanyahu.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_00: So also, I mean, this is another person that was serving in the Netanyahu administration over the years, both as uh deputy chief IDF and then as chief IDF and then as a minister, as a security minister.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_00: Um, not not the security minister, but security minister in the security cabinet.
• 30:04
  Neri: Right, during the war.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: What else?
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, he grew up in Israel's isolated areas.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: He was born in Tiberias, which is a city that is, you know, in the north, and when he was a very young kid, he was his family moved to a lot.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_00: You all know the name.
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_00: It's the small southern city, it's very detached from Israel's center hub.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_00: And being a military person, a military career.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, he he studies in the academia, but it's a military career of a person who comes from the uh outskirts of the country.
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's interesting to note, by the way, that Ayal Zamir, the current chief IDF, also grew up in Eilat.
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_00: What, you know, what do they have in the water down there?
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_00: They have a lot of water and water sports, but those two people were not into water sports, they went into military careers.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_00: Ayal Zamir and Gadi, you know, they kind of remind me one of each other because of this kind of a somber, heavy type of considerate manner, not jumping to their feet, not uh not the high-tech type, right?
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_00: More of a more of the military types.
• 31:14
  Neri: Right, and the military type that maybe we associated with Israel's past.
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
• 31:19
  Neri: More than more than the present, which is uh like the high-tech, you know, emphasis.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and and Ghadi came from Golani, Golani Brigade, and I Yazamir came from the tanks, and both Mizrachi descendants, and that's also very interesting about Ghadi Eisencourt.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_00: If he will be chosen as a prime minister, it's going to be for the first time that we're going to have a prime minister coming out from Moroccan, you know, ancestry or uh Mizrahi uh Sfaradi, the part of the country, which is probably had around half of the country are Mizrachi, and we never had uh anyone at the top like that.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_00: So that's very interesting, also.
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I thought I know maybe it's not very familiar to our overseas listeners, but it's it's occupies the attention of Israeli borders a lot.
• 32:06
  SPEAKER_00: Who is Mizrachi, who is Ashkenazi, stuff like that.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's still happening in Israel of 2026.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_00: And he's Mizrachi, so it's uh interesting.
• 32:14
  Neri: Yes, it's very interesting.
• 32:17
  Shanie: Talking about Israel has gotten so hard.
• 32:20
  Shanie: People are angry and dug into their positions, and most of the time it feels like the conversation is over before it even begins.
• 32:27
  Shanie: But what if we kept talking?
• 32:28
  Shanie: I'm Shinny Reichmann from Israel Policy Forum, and this is Disputed Territory, a podcast for real talk about Israel.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_08: I don't find that shaming people works very well and getting them to listen to you.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_08: What I try to do is at least open up a space that people can listen.
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_08: I also try to ask people questions to like push them to ask themselves to evaluate their own ideologies.
• 32:51
  Shanie: We can believe that there needs to be an is a Jewish state and also work every day to make it better.
• 32:55
  Shanie: And I see my work as really digging in there, trying to fix the hardest and most challenging parts of Israel.
• 33:02
  Shanie: And it doesn't take away from loving it.
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_06: You can call these things wrong, you can call these things unacceptable, one, two, et cetera, but you should not dehumanize an entire society.
• 33:13
  Shanie: We're going to talk about Zionism, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Jewish identity, the relationship between American Jews and Israel, and the questions that don't always have easy answers.
• 33:23
  Shanie: You'll hear from people with different perspectives.
• 33:25
  Shanie: Sometimes I'll agree with them and other times they won't.
• 33:28
  Shanie: But that's the point.
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_01: When I criticize Antonio and Begging Fear and the settlements, and when I speak about a two-state solution, all of this is because of my love for the Jewish people.
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_02: I feel like my responsibility is to be a diaspora Jew and to stay compassionate and to stay nuanced.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_02: Why that is so incredibly difficult in this moment, I don't know.
• 33:49
  Shanie: I believe the conversations about Israel don't have to drive us apart.
• 33:52
  Shanie: They might actually be the only productive way forward.
• 33:55
  Shanie: This is disputed territory, real talk about Israel.
• 33:58
  Shanie: Follow along on Apple, YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 34:13
  Neri: He really is very clear.
• 34:15
  Neri: He says Israel is at a historic crossroads and that it's really a choice in the upcoming election between responsibility and running away from responsibility.
• 34:24
  Neri: So a clear contrast uh with Netanyahu.
• 34:28
  Neri: He also called Netanyahu an anti uh an anti-leader.
• 34:32
  Neri: So again, he's being very he's trying to draw a very clear distinction between him and Bibi.
• 34:38
  Neri: What else did he say on that on that aspect before we get into the actual policies?
• 34:42
  Neri: You know, he's very much running as the anti-Netanyahu.
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he's running as the anti-Netanyahu on personal personal characteristics, as I said, it's very, very clear.
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_00: On the policy issue, it's also clear.
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we asked him about uh outposts, illegal outposts in the West Bank and about uh um violence in the West Bank.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_00: Uh you could say settler violence, but I think it's Israeli violence because these people are Israeli citizens that are you know putting the violence against uh Palestinians uh in the West Bank.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_00: And he he was very direct on that.
• 35:17
  SPEAKER_00: He said administrative detention going to be put back in place immediately, and we're going to evacuate uh our illegal outputs in area as A and B, and we are going to uh enforce the Israeli law and authority back in order.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_00: We are unwilling to accept any type of foreign forces being handling the situation in the West Bank, meaning it doesn't want international engagement.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, there's some suggestion, for example, uh from Lieberman that, you know, Jordanian uh type of uh rulership inside those areas.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_00: He said, no, military, IDF military is going to be putting order in in the area.
• 35:58
  SPEAKER_00: Judicial overhaul, his senses are very, very, very, very clear.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's agreed on people from the opposition.
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_00: First thing and foremost important will be setting up the national inquiry investigative team that we look into October 2023, the massacre.
• 36:16
  SPEAKER_00: And after that, they are aiming to cancel some of the judicial overhaul, the judicial code that was in place with respect to how do you choose judges and other things.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_00: So they will turn it over.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_00: What else?
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, there is a huge problem of crime inside the country.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: Murder rate is very, very high at the moment, specifically in the Arab society, but also in the Jewish society.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_00: So obviously, there they they have major plans with respect to that.
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_00: Education planning.
• 36:44
  SPEAKER_00: Um, yeah.
• 36:46
  Neri: Yeah.
• 36:46
  Neri: I'll tell you, I read the interview and then I sent it to various people, uh, not here, and they were pleasantly surprised at how forward-leading and how kind of forceful Eisencott was, especially on those issues that are very important to the international community, like everything that's happening in the West Bank, like illegal outposts in, you know, areas A and B for our audiences, you know, areas that are where the Palestinians live and where the Palestinian Authority should have, in theory, political control, administrative control.
• 37:15
  Neri: Um, and now uh under Betzel Smotriet, especially there's kind of not only settler attacks, but also illegal construction of actual settler outposts in these areas or close to these areas.
• 37:25
  Neri: And so he was very forceful on those types of issues.
• 37:29
  Neri: Uh he also said that he would he doesn't want Israel just to be uh a pariah internationally, that he doesn't want Israel to be a people that dwell alone.
• 37:38
  Neri: Uh it's kind of a famous saying in Hebrew.
• 37:40
  Neri: Uh-huh.
• 37:40
  Neri: He doesn't want that, so he wants to mend that.
• 37:43
  Neri: Um, and also, like you said, came out very forcefully against uh Vigdor Lieberman's recent ideas of uh having the Jordanians take over the Palestinians in the West Bank.
• 37:51
  Neri: Uh so he was very clear on that.
• 37:52
  Neri: Talk, were you surprised that he was so upfront with you and David in this interview about not just West Bank issues, but also just issues of foreign and security policy?
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_00: I was not surprised.
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_00: As I told you, I met with him like four or five times, and all of the conversation with him were always, you know, kind of direct, and he's not putting a show or he's not uh a player.
• 38:13
  SPEAKER_00: He's more of a straightforward uh type of person.
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_00: He doesn't play you.
• 38:18
  SPEAKER_00: You don't you don't feel um patronized in any way when you talk to him.
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh down to earth type of guy, as you said it earlier.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_00: But I have to put a word of caution in all of that because as you all know, in Israel you have to set up a coalition, you have to bring in other forces from all walks of life of Israel's society.
• 38:39
  SPEAKER_00: And uh it's very difficult to come out.
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, if he replaces Netanyahu after so many years, it's very difficult to come out uh and changing issues right, you know, immediately.
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_00: So don't expect anything to take place except for detention, you know, the the administrative detention, which has to happen as far as I understand, immediately.
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_00: Don't expect everything else to just, you know, fall in line and you know if people looking for the two-state solution, it's not it's not around the corner.
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, if even when you talk to, I mean, uh, Isencott has his own party, many, many of them are uh religious conservative people.
• 39:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's not like they can, you know, just like that.
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_00: And also, even if you you walk all the way to the liberals' left, uh, which is the Democrats under Yair Gulan, you won't find them talking about two-state solution tomorrow.
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's not right, and this is something that you know people overseas have have to realize the Israeli public is completely terrorized and traumatized, and it's we are not even close to healing from the events of October 7th, and and also the other war.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we were under rockets here up until just March or April of 2026, and I'm not talking just you know, a rocket here and there.
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_00: This is, you know, the the place that I'm standing in right now was you know, uh shivering from from rockets and people Yeah, missiles from Iran.
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_00: Missiles and you know, they came from Iran, from Yemen, from from Lebanon, from you know, all over the place.
• 40:11
  SPEAKER_00: So uh I mean I mean, I don't expect the Israeli people to just rise up and say, yeah, this is a whole change of course.
• 40:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think security is a major issue at this election.
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I just want to say something about Agadi Isencoat, and this is something that I wrote over the year or so.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_00: He embodies two aspects that I think the some of the Israeli people find very attractive in a way.
• 40:37
  SPEAKER_00: First, he is an agonizing father, and he has huge empathy for people who lost their kids since the country, as I said, traumatized, and so many people around us lost their loved ones.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_00: So when you have a person that has that, you actually want to get a hug.
• 40:54
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I mean, I'm not talking physically when I sit next to him, but when you see him on TV, you feel like Gaudi Eisencourt is a person that can embrace you with your sorrow and the atmosphere in this country where everybody needs to still, you know, get their tears out.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_00: And if you want to cry together with someone, it must be Isencorn and not Bibi, because Netanyahu doesn't really uh emphasize with anyone.
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_00: He almost doesn't go to funerals, he doesn't go to ceremonies.
• 41:24
  SPEAKER_00: I mean uh he's not he's not there for the public.
• 41:27
  SPEAKER_00: So he has that.
• 41:28
  SPEAKER_00: And the other aspect where you find embodies into Gaudi Eisencott is that he was chief IDF, and you know that he has the military credential.
• 41:38
  SPEAKER_00: Since it's all about security at the moment, you think about who can control this country and know about the borders, about security, has to be someone that was this was his profession.
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_00: So two things empathy, but also kind of um, sorry to say that kind of a killer instinct, you know?
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 41:58
  SPEAKER_00: And he has both.
• 41:59
  SPEAKER_00: He's also gentle, but also has a killer instinct.
• 42:02
  Neri: Yeah, especially in uh post-October 7th reality here.
• 42:06
  Neri: Uh the security credentials are are critical, um as well as his ability to to connect with people and empathize with their loss.
• 42:14
  Neri: It's super, super important.
• 42:16
  Neri: But I mean, that's a good transition, Tal, to the broader situation here with the election and and the the current campaign in the race.
• 42:24
  Neri: I mean, you see the polls just as well as I do, just as well as the audience, I'm sure, are aware.
• 42:28
  Neri: The polls seem to be all over the place.
• 42:31
  unknown: Right.
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_00: Very confusing.
• 42:32
  Neri: It's very confusing, even for us.
• 42:34
  Neri: I do this for a living.
• 42:35
  Neri: But really, if you kind of strip away everything, it doesn't seem like you know, Nanyahu definitely doesn't have uh anywhere near a majority, him and his kind of far-right and religious allies and partners, fine.
• 42:46
  Neri: But also the opposition led by Isencot and his Yishar party, also don't have a majority, at least not without the Arab-Israeli political parties.
• 42:56
  Neri: So uh, Tali, you've been doing this a lot longer than I have.
• 43:00
  Neri: How do you assess the opposition's campaign and their, I guess, inability so far, at least in the polls, again, stressing it's in the polls, to actually break out, open up a gap between them and BB?
• 43:13
  Neri: Uh, why is it so close?
• 43:15
  SPEAKER_00: So, one of the issues that we know from the past is that the liquid is always underrepresented in the polls, meaning if they have 20 at the moment or something like that, they may come up with 22.
• 43:27
  SPEAKER_00: Because they usually when when we get to the election results, the polling is not completely off, but it's a little bit off under reporting about the liquid specifically.
• 43:38
  SPEAKER_00: So that's one issue.
• 43:39
  SPEAKER_00: So I want everybody to take in that into account where we've seen That's not that's not good news, Talas.
• 43:45
  Neri: That doesn't make us that doesn't make us more hopeful that the opposition can can win.
• 43:50
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 43:51
  SPEAKER_00: It is what it is, but when I say liquid may up maybe up in from twenty to twenty two, it usually goes on the expense of either Betsales Smotric with the religious Zionist or the expense of Ben Gvir.
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_00: So if those two are now up in 12, having six and six, for example, then they might be around 10.
• 44:12
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the trade-off.
• 44:14
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't mean that he's taking it, Netanyahu is taking it from the other side.
• 44:17
  SPEAKER_00: Having said that, as you mentioned, in order to set up a coalition in Israel, you have to come up with a group of parties.
• 44:24
  SPEAKER_00: The problem, main problem for everybody, and this is the reason that polling is so, you know, on the extreme sides of issues, is that some parties, we are not sure if they will cross the threshold or not.
• 44:38
  SPEAKER_00: And all of those parties that are on the verge of thresholds are coming from Netanyahu's block.
• 44:44
  SPEAKER_00: So it's very hard.
• 44:45
  SPEAKER_00: If all of them cross the threshold, then Netanyahu bloc may either be equal, or I don't think they will win, but they have enough of a power to block the other side from setting up the coalition.
• 44:58
  SPEAKER_00: But if some of their parties will not cross the threshold, then it gives Eisencott an edge.
• 45:04
  SPEAKER_00: So you've seen during those months Eisencott with an edge or kind of a parallel situation.
• 45:11
  SPEAKER_00: Either way, Netanyahu doesn't seem to have the numbers.
• 45:14
  SPEAKER_00: Let me just say one more sentence because he wants to have Offer Winter inside, I mean, may have Offer Winter inside this coalition, where Offer Winter resists sitting with the ultra-orthodox because Netanyahu is attached with them about the issue of the draft.
• 45:30
  SPEAKER_00: So when you have the issue of the draft on the table, it's very hard to set up a coalition.
• 45:34
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, all of this mixes up to a situation where we don't know what the results will be.
• 45:40
  Neri: We don't know.
• 45:40
  Neri: That's an honest answer.
• 45:42
  Neri: Uh, and that's also something, a recurring theme uh on this podcast in recent weeks.
• 45:46
  Neri: Let me ask my question a little bit differently.
• 45:48
  Neri: How do you assess the opposition's campaign so far, especially now two weeks away to election day?
• 45:55
  Neri: Should they have done a better job, say, attacking Netanyahu for different issues, uh, maybe focusing less on what happened the night before October 7th, which is obviously a massively in the debate in recent weeks.
• 46:08
  Neri: I mean, as a political analyst, how do you assess the opposition's campaign given the fact that the polls are so close?
• 46:14
  SPEAKER_00: They really are unable to downgrade the public uh interest in talking about the massacre of the night before the massacre, because we were just through the uh the official date.
• 46:27
  SPEAKER_00: So what do you expect?
• 46:28
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the media is all over the place.
• 46:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's not like they can ignore it.
• 46:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and it's it's bad for them to ignore it, I think.
• 46:34
  SPEAKER_00: But I think that uh in the last two weeks they may focus more of the draft issue and the ultra-orthodox autonomy, because for sure this is a driving force for young people to vote against the current coalition.
• 46:50
  SPEAKER_00: So that may be maybe the solution right now, what to do next.
• 46:54
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, it's their research and their decision making.
• 46:58
  SPEAKER_00: I would say I would say that Isenkurt was very aggressive during the last year, but in August and September, it was it had much of a softer tone to his campaign than the aggressiveness that we've seen early on.
• 47:12
  SPEAKER_00: And the reason for that, as far as I understand, was because they are trying to attract Netanyahu's voter in.
• 47:20
  SPEAKER_00: In order to attract them in, you don't have you don't want to attack the Likudnik um supporters, because if they're still debating on what to do, they want to come over, they don't want to see a person that is on full attack against uh against them.
• 47:37
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, it's kind of very thin line to walk here, very difficult to make a decision what to do.
• 47:44
  SPEAKER_00: I've heard from his staff that, for example, women who are Mizrachi, uh, as we said earlier, and uh they are basically more of a supporter of shas.
• 47:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's the ultra-orthodox that is Mizrachi, that is uh Sephardic.
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_04: Sephardic Sephardic.
• 48:01
  SPEAKER_00: They see a trend where those women are basically leaving sha's and moving toward Isengard.
• 48:07
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, I I find it hard to tell you if it's if it's happening or if it this is just, you know, campaign talk and uh I mean it's very difficult to predict, you know, something like that.
• 48:19
  SPEAKER_00: In order to get those groups of women, you don't want to come out very, very strong against Netanyahu because they are basically kind of a conservative religious right-wing chassis supporters.
• 48:33
  SPEAKER_00: And their sons are going into IDF.
• 48:36
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, some of them don't want to support chas anymore because of the draft issue, and they may look for someone else, and this may be Gaudi.
• 48:45
  Neri: Gotcha.
• 48:46
  Neri: Yes.
• 48:46
  Neri: Your point is well taken because uh obviously there's a lot of um criticism and hand-wringing amongst the opposition, but also especially like the you know, the more left-wing media about the you know, the opposition is messing up the campaign, they should be doing this, they should be doing that.
• 48:59
  Neri: But like you said, there are trade, there are trade-offs.
• 49:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, if they wouldn't be in the attack and they would be very aggressive, then you had those critics saying, oh my god, look what they're doing.
• 49:08
  SPEAKER_00: They're doing a huge mistake because when while they're being aggressive, they're not going to be able to bring over some borders.
• 49:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's you know, it's it's very hard.
• 49:15
  SPEAKER_00: But we will be all smarter on uh on October 28th, maybe not even then yet, uh, to understand what went wrong or right.
• 49:23
  SPEAKER_00: We I I can't really tell you.
• 49:25
  Neri: Okay.
• 49:26
  Neri: And in terms of, let's say, October 28th and the probably the weeks after election day, again, we'll have we'll be smarter once we see the numbers.
• 49:34
  Neri: But when Eisenhock tells, I don't think he told you in your interview, but I think he had an interview over the weekend with another outlet where he said, no, no, um, if me and the other quote unquote Zionist Jewish opposition parties have any kind of majority over the Netanyahu bloc, I'm going to set up a minority government.
• 49:52
  SPEAKER_05: Yeah.
• 49:53
  Neri: And so that's one option.
• 49:54
  Neri: The other option may be kind of using the Arab-Israeli political parties if he they meet certain conditions.
• 50:00
  Neri: I mean, what do you think is a realistic scenario for the days and weeks after October 27th?
• 50:06
  Neri: Or by the way, a question you guys did ask Eisencott, and he kind of, you know, maneuvered his way out of a clear answer is a national unity government with Bibi after October 27th.
• 50:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 50:19
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, national unity government, this is something that I brought on the table because I think that this is what the president of Israel, Its Rak Herzog, will aspire to do.
• 50:29
  SPEAKER_00: Because I know Herzog personally, and he did not tell me anything specific on that.
• 50:36
  SPEAKER_00: Nor Eisencott.
• 50:38
  SPEAKER_00: No, no, no one of them told me that personally.
• 50:41
  SPEAKER_00: But knowing the characters and speaking to these people over the years, I predict that Herzog would try to bring them together, you know, knowing him.
• 50:49
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, everybody, I mean, you are you know him probably, you know, so that's that's probably the game that he likes to present.
• 50:56
  SPEAKER_00: I think Eisencott left the door open to the Arab society leaders to join in a way because he said, I'm not ruling out a person because he's Arab or because he's Jewish or something like that.
• 51:07
  SPEAKER_00: But if he declares the values, the merits of the declaration of independence, if he agrees for a draft, if he uh agrees to call the Hamas terror organization a terror organization that needs to be destroyed.
• 51:22
  SPEAKER_00: Destroyed.
• 51:23
  SPEAKER_00: If they agree to that, then we're open uh for business.
• 51:27
  SPEAKER_00: And personally, I think it shouldn't be so difficult for Mansoor Abbas to wake up on the 20th of October and say, A, that the Hamas is a terror organization, B, I believe in the draft.
• 51:40
  SPEAKER_00: Not, you know, they're not going in to hold guns, but they will do civil service as a military draft.
• 51:45
  SPEAKER_00: I agree to the concept of the declaration, declaration of independence, and there is another uh you know, recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic.
• 51:53
  Neri: Exactly.
• 51:54
  SPEAKER_00: It shouldn't be a problem.
• 51:55
  SPEAKER_00: Most of those things, uh Mansur Abbas Edinburgh already said them.
• 51:59
  SPEAKER_04: Yeah.
• 52:00
  SPEAKER_00: So I mean that's a uh but uh Eisencot may swear in a neurogovernment based on the fact that if he has, let's say, 56 or 57 and Netanyahu only has 51 or 52, so Eisencott's claim will be I know I don't have a majority, but my minority is bigger than his minority.
• 52:23
  SPEAKER_00: And if we are doomed to be on another cycle and another cycle of election, let it be me, because I'm representing a bigger minority than the minority of Netanyahu, something like that.
• 52:36
  SPEAKER_00: That makes sense.
• 52:37
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, it makes sense to me.
• 52:39
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if he's going to be able to pull that together, but that's, you know, that's on the table.
• 52:43
  SPEAKER_00: It may be just on the table in order to frighten off the liquid, in order to project a winning strategy.
• 52:51
  SPEAKER_00: This is not a really a winning, it's more of a not losing strategy.
• 52:55
  Neri: Yeah, uh, I mean, again, we'll be smarter once we see the numbers, but there are these various permutations, which all of them have both upside and a lot of downside, like you know, President Herzog trying to bring them together.
• 53:07
  Neri: And then I don't know.
• 53:08
  Neri: Will Eisencott actually believe any agreement he he concludes with Bibi Netanyahu?
• 53:13
  Neri: Will he make the same mistake as Benny Gantz made a number of times in the past?
• 53:17
  Neri: I hope not.
• 53:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 53:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I again that uh Neri, I'm gonna give you my prediction here, which is nothing to be quoted on because it's not based on any type of facts.
• 53:28
  SPEAKER_00: This is just presumption, right?
• 53:31
  SPEAKER_00: And it's my presumption.
• 53:33
  SPEAKER_00: No one told me that, not Herzog, not Eisencott, not anyone else, is I think that Herzog will call the two leaders and will tell them, Guide Eisencott, you go first as a prime minister for two years, BB, you go second as a prime minister for two years.
• 53:49
  SPEAKER_00: In the meantime, BB, you will serve as defense minister, but because the law prohibits a person that is under indictment to serve as a minister, me, the president, will give you a pardon.
• 54:03
  SPEAKER_00: So it's like around deal.
• 54:05
  SPEAKER_00: A pardon, you know, in exchange for, but then I mean, this is going to be a huge disappointment for all camps, and they're going to hate it.
• 54:13
  SPEAKER_00: The can the government, the country, the public will criticize this in a very severe terms.
• 54:18
  SPEAKER_00: Eisencourt may be just led into believing that it's, I mean, I Eisencott is not a naive person, but you know, having Netanyahu as a defense minister next to him, it's really troubling for him.
• 54:32
  Neri: But Tal, uh, again, like you, I've I've heard uh speculation about this scenario, and even people that I I respect a lot say, you know, oh, it's gonna be a national unity government after the election, just you know, wait and wait and see.
• 54:45
  Neri: What guarantee would Isencore have that BB after three months wouldn't just blow it up and force another election?
• 54:53
  SPEAKER_00: No guarantees.
• 54:54
  SPEAKER_00: I I this is just speculation.
• 54:56
  SPEAKER_00: I really don't know if it can happen.
• 54:58
  SPEAKER_00: It all depends on the number.
• 54:59
  SPEAKER_00: This is just speculation because if there is a landslide for any of the size, if there is another option, maybe it will be, but you know, it's um basically when you ask that question, if Netanyahu dissolves after three months, then Eisencourt remains as an interim prime minister and stays as an interim minister, which is something that Eisencourt is trying to prevent Netanyahu from staying as an interim prime minister through the next couple of years, you know, what what we had during the the first uh all of those you know five five election cycles.
• 55:31
  SPEAKER_00: So I mean, you know, this is Eisencourt to lose, but Netanyahu gains here, as I said earlier, Netanyahu gains the erase canceling of his trial.
• 55:42
  SPEAKER_00: This is also very problematic because you can't really erase a trial like that, and Herzog has to think of some sort of a solution.
• 55:49
  SPEAKER_00: Also, what do you do with the national inquiry investigative uh committee, which has to be set up?
• 55:55
  Neri: That's exactly you know, to what we were talking about earlier.
• 55:58
  Neri: Yeah, they have to agree on a on a on a policy about these and other issues.
• 56:02
  SPEAKER_00: What do you do with the draft?
• 56:04
  SPEAKER_00: What do you do with the ultra-orthodox?
• 56:05
  SPEAKER_00: So it's like Netanyahu uh relies on them.
• 56:08
  SPEAKER_00: But for Netanyahu, the other option is just to lose election, right?
• 56:12
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, here he stays he gets um released from his trial and he gets to be defense minister for the next two years.
• 56:20
  SPEAKER_00: This is something that, you know, another in international uh study.
• 56:24
  Neri: Yes, very, very interesting.
• 56:26
  SPEAKER_00: Very problematic, I not say Yeah, yeah.
• 56:28
  Neri: I'll go on the record so you don't have to.
• 56:30
  Neri: I think this would be a very stupid idea for Eisencourt and his chief advisor, Rodan Malelis, to to go ahead and do.
• 56:36
  Neri: Um, because uh Netanyahu, I don't think he's shown over the course of decades that he can't be trusted.
• 56:42
  Neri: That's true to fulfill any agreement.
• 56:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's true.
• 56:46
  SPEAKER_00: But I I suppose you can only pardon Netanyahu only after Eisencourt is being sworn in and not a minute before that.
• 56:54
  SPEAKER_00: So you have to because nobody trusts Netanyahu, not including the president.
• 56:59
  SPEAKER_00: So you have to swear in Netanyahu Eisencourt as a prime minister and only thereafter uh give the pardon and swearing Netanyahu as a defense minister.
• 57:08
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 57:08
  SPEAKER_00: Correct.
• 57:09
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I'm just a person here.
• 57:10
  SPEAKER_00: I I have no idea.
• 57:12
  Neri: Well, you have more of an idea than than most people tell.
• 57:15
  Neri: Final question for you.
• 57:17
  Neri: Let's say uh these this actual national unity scenario and whatnot, um, notwithstanding, but let's say there's a minority government led by Eisencott, or or he he and the opposition went outright.
• 57:29
  Neri: Give us a sense.
• 57:30
  Neri: What kind of prime minister will Gaudi Eisencott be?
• 57:34
  Neri: Uh, right?
• 57:34
  Neri: He only entered politics in 2022.
• 57:37
  Neri: Yes, he was the head of the IDF, IDF chief of staff, but he's never held a real ministerial post to actually run a minister.
• 57:44
  Neri: He was a minister in the war cabinet.
• 57:46
  Neri: So, what do you think his ability will be as a as a top politician, managing a coalition, managing a government?
• 57:53
  Neri: It's not easy.
• 57:54
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he ran the military.
• 57:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's the biggest uh entity in Israel.
• 57:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's like running a country.
• 57:59
  SPEAKER_00: So uh as per managing and running an operation, that's not the issue.
• 58:04
  SPEAKER_00: I think he will limit the amount of ministers in the government.
• 58:08
  SPEAKER_00: He will uh probably appoint uh eligible person for the jobs, which it means that we might have a minister of education that is actually fitted for the job, a minister of transportation that is actually fitted for the job.
• 58:23
  SPEAKER_00: I think this is going to be very, how do you say, inyani?
• 58:26
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, how do you how do you say that?
• 58:28
  SPEAKER_00: Umyani is uh like kind of professional, professional appointees.
• 58:33
  Neri: Yeah, professional.
• 58:34
  SPEAKER_00: I would say that you know what we had during the change government under Bennett and Lapid between 2021 and 2022 is we had some sort of this kind of a boring, boring times as reporters because everything was kind of organized and less uh it was quiet.
• 58:52
  SPEAKER_00: Quiet and organized.
• 58:54
  SPEAKER_00: So we had less of a stories.
• 58:56
  SPEAKER_00: Having said that, it's not the case because Israel is under severe attack from all around the area.
• 59:01
  SPEAKER_00: So the security details are very, very important, you know, this time around.
• 59:05
  SPEAKER_00: But uh I think he will be focused on security mostly as a prime minister.
• 59:10
  SPEAKER_00: Any any any prime minister that is coming on board has to be uh chiefly dealing with security.
• 59:17
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, part of the reasons that Bennett failed is that he had blind blind spots of political blind spot with respect to what's going on inside his party and people are ditching him and stuff like that.
• 59:28
  SPEAKER_00: So I didn't understand all of those lessons that came from Bennett, the other side.
• 59:33
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, having said, you know, Bennett and Lapide, those two are highly professional and um ready to serve, as we can say.
• 59:41
  SPEAKER_00: Also Lieberman.
• 59:42
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Lieberman, my personal expectation is that Lieberman can be a very good finance minister.
• 59:48
  SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, you if it's if it's Eisencoat as a prime minister, Bennett as a defense minister, Lapid as a foreign affair minister, and and uh Lieberman as a finance minister, for uh for us and and the people that I know, this is like a dream government because it's going to be they're all been in, they're all been in those jobs before and they know what they're doing uh in talking about Lieberman, very, very precise.
• 1:00:12
  SPEAKER_00: I think uh this government may cut all of the funding to the ultra-orthodox with respect to the people that don't are not drafted and stop this autonomy, which is a giant, giant obstacle in Israel at the moment, the autonomy of the ultra-orthodox, uh, people that you know they're not getting educated, they're not working, they're not paying taxes, and they're not serving in the military.
• 1:00:32
  SPEAKER_00: So this will stop immediately.
• 1:00:35
  SPEAKER_00: So some of the effects may be maybe more internals than externals.
• 1:00:41
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think the you're going to see a change in policy towards Gaza or towards Iran, and even the West Bank, as I said earlier, some of the policy will change, but not a big change with respect to the two-state solution.
• 1:00:53
  SPEAKER_00: But talking about talking about security, things are still very, very sensitive and dangerous.
• 1:01:01
  SPEAKER_00: And uh he's going to put you know a lot of time and effort into that, and hoping uh to be surrounded by professionals who will deal with education, welfare, uh healthcare systems, and and you know, uh housing and transportation and stuff like that.
• 1:01:18
  Neri: The things that are actually important to the Israeli public and not just for the coalition and people who may support the coalition in a given in a given moment.
• 1:01:27
  Neri: Um, we should also mention Yerigolan will also be part of this potential future coalition.
• 1:01:32
  Neri: And he he would likely get the uh, well, it's called the National Security Ministry now, headed by Itamal Benvil, previously the Ministry for Internal Security, responsible for the police.
• 1:01:42
  Neri: So I think that would also be a very natural and a very uh important post for someone like Yerigulan to try to begin reversing the damage of the Benvil years.
• 1:01:52
  Neri: True.
• 1:01:52
  Neri: Let's hope.
• 1:01:53
  Neri: You know, again, uh it's up to the Israeli public to give them enough votes to form this kind of government.
• 1:01:59
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 1:01:59
  Neri: Yeah, yeah.
• 1:02:00
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I I have to say the numbers are not, you know, looking in that direction as as we speak today.
• 1:02:06
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe, maybe things will change, but the numbers, you know, they will have to bring someone, either vinter from the other side, or maybe ultra-orthodox that will join them.
• 1:02:15
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know how, but maybe in a way that will bring him to as an absentee or something.
• 1:02:22
  Neri: Or mansour Abbas.
• 1:02:23
  SPEAKER_00: Or Mansur Abbas, which seems to me, seems to be unlikely to take place to happen.
• 1:02:29
  Neri: Yeah.
• 1:02:29
  Neri: Um, so they need to square that circle.
• 1:02:32
  Neri: Uh, well, hopefully someone someone comes and tells them it's a better alternative than cutting a deal with Bibi Netanyahu, but we'll we'll be a lot smarter in two weeks, Tal.
• 1:02:41
  Neri: Um, thank you so much for coming on.
• 1:02:43
  Neri: It's great to see you.
• 1:02:44
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you, man.
• 1:02:44
  Neri: And uh I'm sure we'll we'll talk to you in the weeks and months after Election Day to figure out what happened.
• 1:02:50
  SPEAKER_00: Good for being.
• 1:02:50
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for uh having me, and it's good to be here.
• 1:02:53
  Neri: Take care.
• 1:02:53
  Neri: Bye.
• 1:02:54
  Neri: Okay, thanks again to Tal Schneider for her generous time and insights.
• 1:02:58
  Neri: Also, a special thanks to our producer, Jacob Gilman, and our editor, Tracy Levy, as always, and to all of you who support Israel Policy Forum's work.
• 1:03:05
  Neri: Just a reminder, you can email us with any feedback or questions at policypod at ipforum.org.
• 1:03:11
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• 1:03:14
  Neri: And do consider making a donation to Israel Policy Forum so it can keep being a credible source of analysis and ideas on issues such as these that we all care deeply about through this podcast.
• 1:03:25
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