Latest / Masters in Business / Matthew Benkendorf on Managing Equities
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: This is Masters in Business with very Ridholts on Bloomberg
- 0:06Speaker 1: Radio this weekend. On the podcast, I have a special guest.
- 0:10Speaker 1: His name is Matt Benkendorff, ce IO of Von Toble
- 0:14Speaker 1: Quality Growth, which runs about thirty five billion dollars UH
- 0:19Speaker 1: in equities. This is really a fascinating conversation about a
- 0:24Speaker 1: very specific way to manage equities UH that seems to
- 0:30Speaker 1: differ from how a lot of different people approach UH investing.
- 0:36Speaker 1: VON the group that Matt works with is specifically an
- 0:41Speaker 1: active manager. He oversees six different areas including Asia, Global,
- 0:49Speaker 1: European US, and Global means go anywhere, as well as
- 0:53Speaker 1: emerging markets. They have a very unique approach. A single
- 0:57Speaker 1: team puts money to work in all those areas. A
- 1:00Speaker 1: lot of UH firms do not operate that way. They
- 1:04Speaker 1: have amassed quite an outstanding track record beating comparable firms
- 1:11Speaker 1: and their benchmark for quite a long number of years.
- 1:15Speaker 1: And if you're at all interested in how to manage assets,
- 1:20Speaker 1: how to run a high conviction UH portfolio, how to
- 1:24Speaker 1: think about a process for stock selection and risk management UH,
- 1:29Speaker 1: then you're going to find this to be an absolutely
- 1:32Speaker 1: fascinating conversation. So with no further ado. My interview of
- 1:36Speaker 1: Matt Benkendorf of n Toble Quality Growth. This is Masters
- 1:43Speaker 1: in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio. My special
- 1:48Speaker 1: guest this week is Matt Benkendorf. He is the CEO
- 1:52Speaker 1: of Untoble Quality Growth, a thirty five billion dollar global
- 1:56Speaker 1: growth equity boutique division of investment giant Von Toble out
- 2:02Speaker 1: of Switzerland's. Matt joined the firm in He became deputy
- 2:07Speaker 1: portfolio manager in two thousand and six, lead portfolio manager
- 2:11Speaker 1: of the European Equity Strategy and OH eight and since
- 2:14Speaker 1: two thousand and twelve he has been lead portfolio manager
- 2:18Speaker 1: for US Equity Strategy. Matt Benkendorff, Welcome to Bloombark. Thanks Barry,
- 2:23Speaker 1: thanks for having me. Did I did I get your
- 2:25Speaker 1: name right? I feel like I'm mispronouncing It's a tough one,
- 2:27Speaker 1: but you got it right. There's been many variations over
- 2:29Speaker 1: the years, but you got the best one there, I
- 2:31Speaker 1: think so so. Von Tobol has been around since nine
- 2:34Speaker 1: eight four. You joined the firm in How was your
- 2:38Speaker 1: investment philosophy shaped by those years? That was quite a
- 2:43Speaker 1: era of equity investing. Yeah, he could, UH say, I
- 2:48Speaker 1: was very much brought up and steeped within Von Tobel.
- 2:51Speaker 1: You know. I came to Von Toba lad of undergraduate,
- 2:53Speaker 1: which is a little bit rare in this business, you know.
- 2:55Speaker 1: And I think if you even take a further step
- 2:57Speaker 1: back and look at the longer arc of my life,
- 3:00Speaker 1: you know, I'm sitting here today doing what I always
- 3:02Speaker 1: wanted to do as a kid. Now, So the journey
- 3:04Speaker 1: started a long time ago. I grew up in a
- 3:06Speaker 1: family business. I was always interested in business. I always
- 3:09Speaker 1: thought in terms of what works in business, what doesn't profitability?
- 3:13Speaker 1: And then when I was a kid, I found the
- 3:15Speaker 1: stock market to be an interesting outlet for that because
- 3:18Speaker 1: so as a kid, you you if I'm guessing your
- 3:20Speaker 1: age is right. So you're talking about late seven of
- 3:22Speaker 1: these early eighties, So that was the beginning of what
- 3:27Speaker 1: ended up being an eighteen year bull market. How did
- 3:30Speaker 1: that thousand percent down increase affect uh the way you
- 3:35Speaker 1: look at equities. Yeah, it's interesting if you look at
- 3:37Speaker 1: my upbringing to uh. You know, my father was a
- 3:39Speaker 1: farmer from New Jersey at a landscaping business. We had
- 3:42Speaker 1: a garden center, uh in northwestern New Jersey. So I
- 3:45Speaker 1: wasn't around the markets at all, you know, it wasn't
- 3:47Speaker 1: something we talked about at all at home. I don't
- 3:50Speaker 1: know how I found it. I just sort of stumbled
- 3:52Speaker 1: upon it once I got into high school. Really and uh,
- 3:56Speaker 1: that backdrop you know, of what was going on then,
- 3:59Speaker 1: as you described, that wasn't you know, as close to me,
- 4:02Speaker 1: which is actually interesting, and that it was more about
- 4:05Speaker 1: the process itself. It wasn't the results, you know, it
- 4:07Speaker 1: was the It was the item of being able to
- 4:10Speaker 1: invest in a business via stock. So I was actually disconnected,
- 4:14Speaker 1: which is kind of back to I think what ends
- 4:16Speaker 1: up successful today not focusing on that aspect of it,
- 4:21Speaker 1: the forward thinking, what the numbers, it's the fundamentals. So
- 4:24Speaker 1: it's a very fundamental basis too, so less of a
- 4:28Speaker 1: stock market investor, more of a specific company that happens
- 4:32Speaker 1: to be public investors. That a fair That's exactly it.
- 4:35Speaker 1: You know I I you know I as a kid
- 4:37Speaker 1: and even now today, you know, and on my way
- 4:39Speaker 1: up here to the studio, I just am wired that
- 4:42Speaker 1: way that I'm always looking around at things wondering how
- 4:44Speaker 1: they work, and then generally looking at businesses and wondering
- 4:48Speaker 1: how they work. And it kind of gets to you
- 4:51Speaker 1: asked about the philosophy what we describe as quality quality growth.
- 4:54Speaker 1: Today it's always breaking down businesses quantitatively and qualitatively into
- 4:59Speaker 1: what makes certain it's great and what makes most businesses
- 5:02Speaker 1: quite frankly average. And why would you want to get
- 5:04Speaker 1: out of bed in the morning, you know, to sort
- 5:06Speaker 1: of engage in something. What's in it for you as
- 5:08Speaker 1: an owner of the business. So coming into midtown Manhattan today,
- 5:12Speaker 1: it's a lovely September morning. What did you notice what
- 5:16Speaker 1: caught your eye that you started thinking of in terms
- 5:19Speaker 1: of is this particular business doing well? What what businesses
- 5:23Speaker 1: aren't doing well? I've noticed a lot of the retail
- 5:26Speaker 1: shops around Manhattan seemed to be closing their doors. Yeah. Yeah,
- 5:30Speaker 1: that's the interesting thing when you get into this city
- 5:32Speaker 1: and you realize sort of the commoditized nature of most
- 5:34Speaker 1: of the businesses here, particularly restaurants. Right, You just wonder
- 5:37Speaker 1: you drive up any of the avenues, you wonder how
- 5:39Speaker 1: how all these places stay in business? You know, what
- 5:42Speaker 1: are the margins on certain areas of their business? What
- 5:44Speaker 1: is it about certain locations that make them thrive? So
- 5:47Speaker 1: I see a lot of average, you know, businesses that
- 5:49Speaker 1: I wonder, you know, what, what why would you be
- 5:51Speaker 1: in that business? Not the denigrade the business by any means,
- 5:54Speaker 1: but I'm always sort of ranking and contrasting, and I
- 5:57Speaker 1: think of it in a lot of ways in terms of,
- 5:59Speaker 1: you know, even though my upbringing wasn't a different business,
- 6:02Speaker 1: would you want to own this business? I think that's
- 6:04Speaker 1: the foundation that people miss a lot in stocks and
- 6:07Speaker 1: in stock market investing when they think about purchasing something,
- 6:11Speaker 1: you should really think about it in terms of, you know,
- 6:13Speaker 1: if I was born or had the good fortune to
- 6:15Speaker 1: be in a wealthy family that came from generations of
- 6:18Speaker 1: owning a business, is this the one business I would
- 6:21Speaker 1: want to own? You know? That would critically achieve the
- 6:24Speaker 1: two goals. You're looking for capital preservation over the long
- 6:27Speaker 1: term and then an attractive rate of capital compounding. And
- 6:30Speaker 1: I think when you scrutinize businesses at that higher level
- 6:34Speaker 1: and think about it generationally, that really helps you when
- 6:37Speaker 1: you get down to even a short term vehicle like
- 6:39Speaker 1: the stock market, because you then really dig down into
- 6:43Speaker 1: what it is that, as I said, makes you want
- 6:45Speaker 1: to get out of bed in the morning and operate
- 6:47Speaker 1: that business. And that gets into basic things that play
- 6:49Speaker 1: out in financial analysis, cash flow returns on invested capital,
- 6:53Speaker 1: incremental returns invested capital, why you want a strong balance sheet,
- 6:57Speaker 1: aspects like that. So how do those actors play And
- 7:01Speaker 1: I should really be careful about the word factors, But
- 7:03Speaker 1: how do they play into the philosophy of quote quality growth? Yeah,
- 7:08Speaker 1: and and and it's interesting, you know, we've been exercising
- 7:11Speaker 1: this investment philosophy for twenty years now very consistently, and
- 7:16Speaker 1: as I talked about it today, I always have to
- 7:18Speaker 1: sort of smile and chuckle because twenty years ago, what
- 7:21Speaker 1: we're saying now, quality and growth, they really weren't a
- 7:26Speaker 1: style by any means. They weren't a box that now
- 7:28Speaker 1: investors are sort of put in a little bit in mimicking,
- 7:31Speaker 1: And I think that's important to recognize because you know,
- 7:33Speaker 1: one of the important lessons you learn in this business
- 7:35Speaker 1: too is financial products are sold and not bought. So
- 7:38Speaker 1: a lot of people use that nomenclature now because that's
- 7:41Speaker 1: what's worked and it sells well. But I think when
- 7:44Speaker 1: you peel back a layer of the onion, you find
- 7:46Speaker 1: when talking to a number of managers who describe themselves
- 7:49Speaker 1: either as growth or as in now a lot more
- 7:51Speaker 1: describing them as quality growth. There's a big differentiation in
- 7:55Speaker 1: terms of how people see businesses. What are they attracted to,
- 7:59Speaker 1: you know, and an alogy I use a lot as
- 8:01Speaker 1: you know, business attraction or investment attraction is a lot
- 8:04Speaker 1: like personal attraction, right, individuals, We are attracted to certain
- 8:08Speaker 1: other individuals with certain characteristics, and it's very similar I
- 8:11Speaker 1: think in the investment world those characteristics you're asking about, right,
- 8:15Speaker 1: we tend to have an affinity and and magnetize towards
- 8:19Speaker 1: generally less cyclical businesses. Those businesses are just more attractive
- 8:24Speaker 1: to us on the margin. Less capital intensity in general
- 8:27Speaker 1: is something that sort of we magnate towards, you know,
- 8:30Speaker 1: the pre cash flow conversion, the stronger balance sheets, very
- 8:33Speaker 1: basic principles, but at high standards. I think that's a
- 8:37Speaker 1: differentiation as well. You know, we life is you know,
- 8:41Speaker 1: full of as they are, average people and average businesses. Right,
- 8:44Speaker 1: that's just the nature. There's a lot of us, and
- 8:45Speaker 1: it's a law of numbers. But when you crank up
- 8:48Speaker 1: scrutiny to a much smaller subsegment of either highly successful
- 8:51Speaker 1: people or highly successful businesses, there's a great divergence and
- 8:56Speaker 1: that divergence, quite frankly, in today's world has gotten even wider.
- 8:59Speaker 1: Let's talk little bit about your process for selecting stocks.
- 9:05Speaker 1: Are you purely bottoms up? Do you think about any
- 9:08Speaker 1: other top down sort of stuff? Tell us a little
- 9:10Speaker 1: bit about how you approach stock selection. Yeah, I think
- 9:14Speaker 1: this is also you know what's a common misnomer, uh
- 9:17Speaker 1: in investing, Uh? That you know you have to get
- 9:21Speaker 1: the top down right, you know, you have to predict things.
- 9:24Speaker 1: I think it's just general human nature, you know. I
- 9:26Speaker 1: think one of the greatest advantages in investing is typically
- 9:28Speaker 1: behavior management of that's the key of it all. Really.
- 9:32Speaker 1: You know, the financial analysis, the investment philosophy we're talking
- 9:35Speaker 1: about today and that i'll describe is one piece. But
- 9:38Speaker 1: you know, also another powerful analogy I use and explaining
- 9:41Speaker 1: it is investing is a lot like dieting. Uh. You
- 9:44Speaker 1: know a lot of people know the keys to living
- 9:47Speaker 1: typically a longer, healthier, happier life, right, what you should eat,
- 9:50Speaker 1: what you shouldn't eat, how you should exercise, and those elements.
- 9:53Speaker 1: The key is discipline, right, and investing I think is
- 9:56Speaker 1: very similar to that. It comes down to discipline. The
- 9:58Speaker 1: roadmap is fairly clear and it's been well haide out
- 10:00Speaker 1: by Warren Buffett years ago. Uh In the roadmap really
- 10:04Speaker 1: needs to be centered on the business. It's all about
- 10:07Speaker 1: the business. How good is the business, How will that
- 10:10Speaker 1: business grow? And how is that sustainable? How that business
- 10:13Speaker 1: will grow, how will that business endure through economic cycles
- 10:17Speaker 1: which you inherently will not be able to predict. So
- 10:19Speaker 1: I think ignoring the top down, while is easier said
- 10:23Speaker 1: than done, is a key. So we do that. I
- 10:26Speaker 1: think we really do when we think about businesses and
- 10:28Speaker 1: as I as I mentioned earlier businesses you'd want to own,
- 10:31Speaker 1: it sort of forces you we we sort of have
- 10:33Speaker 1: a private business owner I would say somewhat private equity mentality,
- 10:38Speaker 1: but we happen to be operating in the listed equity sphere,
- 10:41Speaker 1: which gives us a liquidity advantage, you know. So it
- 10:44Speaker 1: also allows us to own great businesses which we choose
- 10:46Speaker 1: bottom up. But we can wake up every day and
- 10:49Speaker 1: look at the screens and see what values the market
- 10:51Speaker 1: is striking on those businesses and improve the quality of
- 10:54Speaker 1: what we own for our investors, which is something as
- 10:56Speaker 1: a dynamic a private investor can't do, or a private
- 10:59Speaker 1: equity investor can't do. As quickly. So, so let's talk
- 11:01Speaker 1: about that bottoms up approach. When you're thinking about stock selection,
- 11:06Speaker 1: how does that process begin? Are you screening things based
- 11:09Speaker 1: on value? What tell us what what the process is
- 11:13Speaker 1: like of ultimately saying we're gonna buy this but not that. Yeah,
- 11:18Speaker 1: I think the key as you start quant and you
- 11:20Speaker 1: go than heavy qualitative after that, and I think, so
- 11:23Speaker 1: what's the plant screen to begin with? The quant piece
- 11:26Speaker 1: is key, and that I think first where you should
- 11:28Speaker 1: approach quant is first from an elimination standpoint, negative screening.
- 11:32Speaker 1: When most people think of quant and screening use the
- 11:35Speaker 1: word screening typically it sort of has a connoctation that
- 11:39Speaker 1: you're looking for something when actually what you should be
- 11:41Speaker 1: doing is eliminating things. First and foremost, you want to
- 11:45Speaker 1: really narrow the world down because one, there's only so
- 11:48Speaker 1: many hours in a day, there's a much, so much
- 11:50Speaker 1: so much firepower you have it or bring to bear
- 11:52Speaker 1: in the research process. But also you want to just
- 11:54Speaker 1: fishing a riper pond of opportunity because that greatly reduces
- 11:58Speaker 1: risk as well over the long run by eliminating as
- 12:00Speaker 1: I've described, average or lower quality businesses. So we squat
- 12:04Speaker 1: screen to begin with it's not highly complicated. I'd say
- 12:07Speaker 1: in terms of variables, you're looking for returns on invested capital,
- 12:10Speaker 1: returns on equity, stability and operating margins, strength of balance sheet.
- 12:14Speaker 1: I think the basic variables are easy. You then, though,
- 12:19Speaker 1: improve it by looking for levels of those variables, so
- 12:22Speaker 1: cranking up the scrutiny of the levels of variables you're
- 12:26Speaker 1: willing to accept. But also then critically, what's key is
- 12:29Speaker 1: the track record, So you want clean track records as well,
- 12:33Speaker 1: and I think that's glossed over once again going back
- 12:36Speaker 1: to this human element, right, and when you say track record,
- 12:38Speaker 1: you're not referring to the stock performance. You're referring specifically
- 12:42Speaker 1: to the performance of the underlying business exactly. You want
- 12:45Speaker 1: to start with businesses that have been great, that have
- 12:47Speaker 1: proven to be great, and are demonstrating that in numbers,
- 12:50Speaker 1: and that's what you're looking for. You're eliminating the poor numbers,
- 12:54Speaker 1: and you're critically looking for the clean track record of
- 12:56Speaker 1: good numbers because that's not a perfect predictor of future SESS,
- 13:00Speaker 1: it does get you over a one ft hurdle and
- 13:02Speaker 1: points you in the right direction and makes your future
- 13:05Speaker 1: looking decision much higher. Probability that Sh'll be right about that.
- 13:10Speaker 1: So I think that's that's a big key track record,
- 13:13Speaker 1: and that's where I'd say go back to this human
- 13:15Speaker 1: element or behavioral aspect. A lot of people don't want
- 13:18Speaker 1: to do that because we have a human tendency to
- 13:20Speaker 1: try to want to be smart or smarter. Right. We
- 13:22Speaker 1: want to try to predict what's going to be great
- 13:24Speaker 1: tomorrow that wasn't great yesterday, Right, But we try to
- 13:28Speaker 1: start in a good place, things that have been great,
- 13:30Speaker 1: and then make an easier, albeit still difficult decision. I
- 13:32Speaker 1: can they keep doing it. Let's talk a little bit
- 13:34Speaker 1: about high conviction. How does that come into play. You've
- 13:38Speaker 1: gone through the negative screen, remove the names you're not
- 13:41Speaker 1: interested in. Now you've done the positive work, and you've
- 13:44Speaker 1: identified fundamentally what you like. How do you take that
- 13:48Speaker 1: somewhat lengthy list I would imagine, and reduce it down
- 13:52Speaker 1: to a smaller concentrated high conviction list. Yeah. I think
- 13:56Speaker 1: the sort of genesis of that is two things. You know,
- 13:59Speaker 1: if I look back at you know, college, I sort
- 14:01Speaker 1: of learned two things, one related to your question and
- 14:03Speaker 1: one that comes before it. I think one the power
- 14:06Speaker 1: of protecting capital and down markets and then being long
- 14:10Speaker 1: though consistently through markets to participateate and and really be
- 14:13Speaker 1: able to compound capital over the long term. You know,
- 14:15Speaker 1: the classic numbers of you don't want to miss out
- 14:18Speaker 1: the biggest updates and markets by trying to time the
- 14:20Speaker 1: market once again, trying to get away from this top
- 14:22Speaker 1: down you know, pitfall that most people fall into. So
- 14:25Speaker 1: I learned that very valuable lesson about preservation, but staying
- 14:28Speaker 1: long through the market, and you do that. I think
- 14:30Speaker 1: through quality you can do that, uh. And I think
- 14:33Speaker 1: the second aspect then of it, UH is risk management.
- 14:36Speaker 1: You know, you learn to throw out a lot of
- 14:39Speaker 1: unfortunately what you learn in college about classic risk management
- 14:42Speaker 1: because at the heart of your question about concentration, that's
- 14:45Speaker 1: really about risk management, and that flies in the face
- 14:48Speaker 1: of classic risk management theory right of owning smaller pieces
- 14:50Speaker 1: of more things to be diversifated, diversified to be lower risk. Actually,
- 14:55Speaker 1: I think that's completely wrong. What you want to do
- 14:56Speaker 1: is more own more of less things, but better things
- 15:00Speaker 1: to reduce risk. And that's something we really capitalize on
- 15:03Speaker 1: and our portfolios just make sure we are concentrated with
- 15:07Speaker 1: capital with much larger positions behind just inherently much better businesses,
- 15:12Speaker 1: much more stable, predictable, higher economic return businesses, better cash
- 15:17Speaker 1: flow profiles. If you put more money behind them, it
- 15:20Speaker 1: is much lower risk than buying smaller slivers of relatively
- 15:24Speaker 1: lower quality companies. And then what goes hand in hand
- 15:26Speaker 1: with that, as you build that portfolio bottom up, you
- 15:30Speaker 1: end up looking what's now called a new term that's
- 15:32Speaker 1: been coined more recently benchmark agnostic or benchmarking different. You
- 15:35Speaker 1: end up looking a whole lot different than the market
- 15:39Speaker 1: by as a byproduct of your concentration and bottom up
- 15:41Speaker 1: stock picking, which people are also finding adds a whole
- 15:44Speaker 1: lot of value to in terms of delivering outphit and
- 15:46Speaker 1: avoiding mistakes. So you have a lot of institutional investors.
- 15:50Speaker 1: They're measured by a benchmark, and I would imagine they
- 15:54Speaker 1: have pressure to measure you by a benchmark. What are
- 15:57Speaker 1: those conversations like when one says, hey, you're either beating
- 16:02Speaker 1: or under performing a benchmark, how do you explain, well,
- 16:05Speaker 1: we're kind of indifferent to the benchmark. What are those
- 16:08Speaker 1: conversations like, Yeah, this is UH. I think there's two
- 16:11Speaker 1: keys to this. UH number one. And then since we're
- 16:14Speaker 1: in you know, new York City. I'll use the great
- 16:16Speaker 1: Billy Joel quote. You know, when we spend a lot
- 16:18Speaker 1: of time bringing our investors on board, I say, you know,
- 16:21Speaker 1: you might think we're crazy, but we might. We just
- 16:23Speaker 1: might be the lunatic you're looking for, as a classic
- 16:26Speaker 1: quote goes, because you've got to really see risk as
- 16:29Speaker 1: we see it, and it's a binary thing. Some people
- 16:31Speaker 1: don't buy into that, you know, they can't wrap their
- 16:34Speaker 1: head around it, or they just fundamentally don't believe it.
- 16:36Speaker 1: They believe more in the classic risk theory we've talked about.
- 16:39Speaker 1: But if you can get people to buy into that
- 16:41Speaker 1: and understand it, and it really helps to show them
- 16:43Speaker 1: the past success of utilizing a strategy like that, I
- 16:47Speaker 1: think that's step one. Step two is your question is
- 16:50Speaker 1: right on point. You know, you're managing people who all
- 16:53Speaker 1: have constituents, and your constituents have constituents, and that's what's
- 16:56Speaker 1: made this business generally more complicated over time, more people watching,
- 16:59Speaker 1: with more visibility and more numbers. How do you how
- 17:02Speaker 1: do you explain things over the short term where benchmark
- 17:05Speaker 1: in different can cause meaningful relative underperformance. Right, But that's
- 17:09Speaker 1: the price of admission, you know, that's the price to
- 17:11Speaker 1: be paid. For great long term out performance, you have
- 17:14Speaker 1: to absolutely underperform in certain certain shorter periods. And the
- 17:19Speaker 1: key to that is education and communication, you know. So
- 17:22Speaker 1: it's the buying and the client institutional or retail on
- 17:25Speaker 1: the onset. So we are that we are the person
- 17:28Speaker 1: they're looking for. We are the match because our strategy
- 17:31Speaker 1: in terms of what we want to own, what we
- 17:33Speaker 1: won't own, and how we view risk resonates with them.
- 17:36Speaker 1: And then once they are on board, you know, I
- 17:38Speaker 1: also say there's two pieces of the job from an
- 17:41Speaker 1: investing standpoint. One is to deliver the returns on paper,
- 17:44Speaker 1: which is important, but the second aspect, which is equally
- 17:47Speaker 1: as important, is getting the client to realize those returns
- 17:50Speaker 1: by staying on board with you for that journey. And
- 17:53Speaker 1: that's why the client journey is very important to us.
- 17:56Speaker 1: And you manage that through a lot of transparency, a
- 17:59Speaker 1: lot of open communication, a lot of hand holding. That's
- 18:03Speaker 1: that's half of your job as an investment manager, you know,
- 18:06Speaker 1: not just to put the returns on the paper, but
- 18:08Speaker 1: to keep the person on the bus over that journey.
- 18:11Speaker 1: And the key to that is less volatility. Typically, you know,
- 18:14Speaker 1: it's good it's by products of equality growth style, whereby
- 18:18Speaker 1: your downside capture protection is high, right, you preserve capital
- 18:22Speaker 1: much better when things fall apart recession comes about. And
- 18:26Speaker 1: then also your overall volatility is dampened over time because
- 18:30Speaker 1: your businesses are just better and they're not subject to
- 18:33Speaker 1: wild swings of volatility. So if you can keep the
- 18:36Speaker 1: ride less bumpy, you definitely have a much better chance
- 18:40Speaker 1: of keeping your investor in their seat over the ride,
- 18:42Speaker 1: and then you can accomplish the two key features the
- 18:44Speaker 1: returns and having the client there at the end point.
- 18:47Speaker 1: So so let's address that concept of client journey, because
- 18:51Speaker 1: I find that very fascinating. There have been a number
- 18:54Speaker 1: of del Bar studies and other studies that look at
- 18:59Speaker 1: investor behavior here, and the most common takeaway seems to
- 19:03Speaker 1: be investors underperform their own investments, meaning they'll join the
- 19:10Speaker 1: bus at the top of the hill and they'll jump
- 19:13Speaker 1: out at the first move down, but it might just
- 19:15Speaker 1: be a little dip and then we're back heading up
- 19:18Speaker 1: the hill. Meaning they buy high, they sell low. They
- 19:21Speaker 1: don't write it out for a full cycle. They don't
- 19:24Speaker 1: give a manager an opportunity to demonstrate, hey, if you
- 19:26Speaker 1: bind the philosophy, here's where you should end up over
- 19:30Speaker 1: five or ten years. How do you deal with that
- 19:33Speaker 1: client journey aspect. Is it just education and communication from
- 19:38Speaker 1: the beginning or is that an ongoing issue that requires
- 19:42Speaker 1: regular reinforcement. I think it's two things. It's one the
- 19:45Speaker 1: piece you just mentioned, the ladder, the communication. But one
- 19:48Speaker 1: it's via this investment philosophy and style that's critical. And
- 19:52Speaker 1: I'll explain that because at the heart of it is
- 19:55Speaker 1: what you mentioned. You know this these old studies, and
- 19:57Speaker 1: I actually haven't seen the study in a while, but
- 19:58Speaker 1: I'm sure that the numbers are quite similar those classic
- 20:01Speaker 1: studies of US mutual fund investors. As you pointed out,
- 20:04Speaker 1: the returns of look great over the long term on paper,
- 20:06Speaker 1: but most investors have never achieved those returns because of
- 20:08Speaker 1: the dynamic you're talking about. And quite frankly, for average
- 20:12Speaker 1: or lower quality businesses, and often a benchmark, you might
- 20:15Speaker 1: need to have a higher timing element because those businesses
- 20:19Speaker 1: can be mean reverting. If you have a portfolio of
- 20:21Speaker 1: lower quality businesses, whether benchmark or an active manager with
- 20:25Speaker 1: just lower quality businesses, your timing is very important. Right
- 20:29Speaker 1: The businesses themselves are going to be mean reverting in
- 20:32Speaker 1: their economics. If you're in the energy space or bastion
- 20:34Speaker 1: materials ships, those are commodity industries and those commodity prices
- 20:38Speaker 1: are going to fluctuate, so you better buy low and
- 20:41Speaker 1: sell high to make your money. What we want to
- 20:44Speaker 1: do alongside the communication is with higher quality businesses that
- 20:48Speaker 1: have these elements we've talked about, lesstality, more durability, a
- 20:51Speaker 1: real long tail or runway of growth not just one year,
- 20:54Speaker 1: but five, seven, ten, fifty. When you have those types
- 20:59Speaker 1: of businesses, you really can hold through downturns. It's a
- 21:03Speaker 1: it's a it's a slight nuanced to understand. Right, it's
- 21:06Speaker 1: a fallacy to hold a really great business when when
- 21:09Speaker 1: a cycle turns, because it is going to mean reverting.
- 21:12Speaker 1: So the buy and hold strategy actually, as it's sort
- 21:14Speaker 1: of taught and sold. If you have the wrong businesses,
- 21:16Speaker 1: it shouldn't be aplical. Actually you're you're following the wrong approach.
- 21:19Speaker 1: But if you have great businesses where you can put
- 21:22Speaker 1: your head on your pillow at night and no, look,
- 21:24Speaker 1: not only are they not going out of business even
- 21:25Speaker 1: in this recession for reasons of A, B and C,
- 21:28Speaker 1: they're going to continue to grow their underlying earnings power.
- 21:31Speaker 1: Those type businesses one you can hold onto and sleep well,
- 21:34Speaker 1: but two you should add to them because the market
- 21:37Speaker 1: is starting to give you a gift there. But in
- 21:39Speaker 1: the mean reverting business that we're with, most businesses that
- 21:41Speaker 1: most investors hold by nature their average and you better
- 21:44Speaker 1: buy low and sell high to make a return. You know,
- 21:48Speaker 1: what we're trying to capture is long term earnings compounding.
- 21:51Speaker 1: You know, stock returns and earnings growth are correlated over
- 21:55Speaker 1: the long term. Interestingly enough, stock returns and GDP growth
- 21:58Speaker 1: aren't very correlated over the long term. But if you
- 22:00Speaker 1: get the business right and the earnings compounding right, and
- 22:03Speaker 1: you own a portfolio and aggregate that has a collective
- 22:06Speaker 1: weighted average rate of earnings compounding, that's attractive. That's what
- 22:10Speaker 1: your investment returns will be, and that's real add value.
- 22:13Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about the investment industry. It's
- 22:17Speaker 1: been going through a lot of changes. Your firm has
- 22:20Speaker 1: been around since nine four, uh. Let's let's discuss some
- 22:25Speaker 1: of these changes. We'll start with active management. It's been
- 22:29Speaker 1: a rough couple of years. What has for active as
- 22:32Speaker 1: a lot of the money flows have gone towards passive indexing.
- 22:37Speaker 1: What's your experience been like over the past, let's call
- 22:39Speaker 1: a decade. Yeah, I think, as first, our investment experience
- 22:42Speaker 1: has been very good, you know, owning great businesses that
- 22:45Speaker 1: grow faster than the benchmark, that are durable and predictable,
- 22:48Speaker 1: you know, has worked and will continue to work. We're
- 22:50Speaker 1: highly confident of that. The industry though, Look, I think
- 22:54Speaker 1: one I always have a sort of split personality on
- 22:57Speaker 1: on this in that you know, I hunt, and I
- 23:00Speaker 1: don't think I should defend most active managers, right because
- 23:03Speaker 1: I think the numbers are what they are. I think
- 23:05Speaker 1: a lot of active managers and most don't add value
- 23:07Speaker 1: quite frankly. So the carnage that goes on and what
- 23:10Speaker 1: should be a meritocracy of an industry is absolutely proper
- 23:14Speaker 1: and corrective carnage. The word carnage. Yeah, Look, it's it's
- 23:17Speaker 1: an industry that's probably had, like a lot of other
- 23:19Speaker 1: industries along come up and right we've seen you know,
- 23:24Speaker 1: all the other classic industries hollowed out by either tech
- 23:27Speaker 1: or new iterations. Right, but this industry, it took a
- 23:30Speaker 1: while to get to it. You know, there's a lot
- 23:32Speaker 1: of honey there and it took a while to people
- 23:33Speaker 1: to focus in on and start squeezing, but it's there
- 23:36Speaker 1: a lot of complacency for decades, absolutely, so that's coming.
- 23:40Speaker 1: And if you are you know, average or lower quality
- 23:43Speaker 1: like the businesses we look at, you just you shouldn't
- 23:45Speaker 1: be on the playing field, right, So that part I
- 23:47Speaker 1: think is do and proper and there is no defense
- 23:49Speaker 1: for that, right you have to add value. And the
- 23:51Speaker 1: great thing about this this is a performance oriented business,
- 23:54Speaker 1: just like sports, but unlike sports. Actually we play the
- 23:56Speaker 1: game every day and our score is there every day
- 23:59Speaker 1: and the long term. So if you can't deliver, you
- 24:02Speaker 1: shouldn't be there. That's one part. But to the passive side,
- 24:05Speaker 1: you know, there's there's two elements that that are driving
- 24:08Speaker 1: it and one I think is a little more questionable.
- 24:10Speaker 1: One lower cost and technology certain has helped right e
- 24:13Speaker 1: t s different vehicles. There's been good innovation there, you know,
- 24:16Speaker 1: as uh Volker said, you know, the best innovation the
- 24:19Speaker 1: financial industry has been the A t M. Only probably
- 24:21Speaker 1: technology has really helped would investment products too. For a
- 24:25Speaker 1: vehicle to get passive even cheaper, that's good. I think.
- 24:27Speaker 1: The other thing though, people need to be a little
- 24:29Speaker 1: bit cautious about when they look at this huge swing
- 24:32Speaker 1: we've had to passive over the last decade, roughly has
- 24:35Speaker 1: been monetary policy. Right? If I always ask it, and
- 24:38Speaker 1: when we look at a business, even I I often
- 24:40Speaker 1: ask either my members of my team or or I
- 24:43Speaker 1: asked myself with this business through all your analysis, if
- 24:47Speaker 1: I could ask you or give you access to, just
- 24:49Speaker 1: the answer to one question that would really help you
- 24:53Speaker 1: with this business when you look forward, what would it be?
- 24:55Speaker 1: Try to synthesize and boil things down into a list
- 24:58Speaker 1: of things you would like to know but maybe can't
- 25:00Speaker 1: because they're unpredictable. But try to get to the crux
- 25:03Speaker 1: of the matter. What's the most important issue that will
- 25:06Speaker 1: help this business or drive its future growth or success.
- 25:09Speaker 1: I think when you look at the overall investing landscape,
- 25:12Speaker 1: you can ask yourself that similar question about monetary policy. Right.
- 25:15Speaker 1: If I was going to give you the access to
- 25:17Speaker 1: a magic lamp with just one wish, right, and it
- 25:20Speaker 1: would help you to to set the landscape investing wise
- 25:23Speaker 1: for the next decade. You know, if I had that
- 25:25Speaker 1: crystal ball, I'd probably ask the genie, you know, what's
- 25:28Speaker 1: monetary policy for the That's a pretty powerful variable you
- 25:33Speaker 1: can compound and build a whole lot of decisions around. Right,
- 25:37Speaker 1: and look at the backdrop we've had. We had a
- 25:39Speaker 1: FED policy that was at zero, with absolute visibility and
- 25:43Speaker 1: certainty of where it wasn't going for so long. That's
- 25:47Speaker 1: a pretty good backdrop for passive. I think you know
- 25:50Speaker 1: now that we've had some at least uncertainty and volatility
- 25:53Speaker 1: and what I would call normalcy back in monetary policy.
- 25:56Speaker 1: Some people might differ with that opinion, but I think
- 25:58Speaker 1: this is actually what should be normal. Is it going
- 26:00Speaker 1: towards well? I think people think I'm normal. I think
- 26:03Speaker 1: I have to be careful in two terms, normal terms
- 26:05Speaker 1: of where the rate should be, but I'm talking about
- 26:07Speaker 1: normal more in terms of you just shouldn't know exactly
- 26:09Speaker 1: where it's going. There should be a little bit of uncertainty,
- 26:11Speaker 1: is it going up down? Staying the same? A little
- 26:14Speaker 1: bit of uncertainty, not probability, Right, I think that's kind
- 26:17Speaker 1: of normal. That That goes back to Bernanke during the
- 26:20Speaker 1: financial crisis saying the way we'll stabilize this is to
- 26:24Speaker 1: give people enough guidance that they become comfortable that there's
- 26:28Speaker 1: a liquidly backstop. However, that certainty seems to have carried
- 26:32Speaker 1: forward far beyond the crisis. I totally agree with the concept. Hey,
- 26:38Speaker 1: a little uncertainty is not a bad thing when it
- 26:41Speaker 1: comes to monetary policy. Yeah, I think and and I
- 26:44Speaker 1: think good for us. Would we kind of agree on that.
- 26:46Speaker 1: You're starting to hear some murmurs of that of people
- 26:48Speaker 1: kind of talk about this. You know, it is maybe
- 26:51Speaker 1: the FED talking a little bit too much, right that
- 26:54Speaker 1: that I think that should be a part of the
- 26:56Speaker 1: conversation now a little bit. You know, they went to
- 26:58Speaker 1: this strategy you know, a while ago of more transparency
- 27:01Speaker 1: and maybe less transparency is a little bit healthier for
- 27:04Speaker 1: risk and risk in the markets. I actually, you know,
- 27:06Speaker 1: I I differ on this maybe generally with with my
- 27:09Speaker 1: opinion too. And Paul, you know, I think Pal is
- 27:11Speaker 1: doing a great job. Quite frankly, I think there's a
- 27:13Speaker 1: lot of criticism of him, but if you step back,
- 27:16Speaker 1: he's probably the right guy at the right point in
- 27:18Speaker 1: time for the job. In terms of his background, we
- 27:20Speaker 1: always wanted this sort of pragmatic, business oriented guy sort
- 27:24Speaker 1: of clamored for it versus non economists. And then it's
- 27:28Speaker 1: like life, you know, then you finally get what you
- 27:30Speaker 1: want and everybody change their mind. I'll take it a
- 27:32Speaker 1: step further. I think you can make the argument that
- 27:34Speaker 1: this could very well be the single best appointment from
- 27:38Speaker 1: the Trump administration. Yeah, I think I think there's a
- 27:41Speaker 1: lot of credibility in that, you know, definitely, I think Paul,
- 27:44Speaker 1: you know, as the other quote I'd like to share,
- 27:45Speaker 1: I think he's trying to do the impossible for the ungrateful, right.
- 27:48Speaker 1: I mean, you're gonna he's gonna get a whole lot
- 27:50Speaker 1: of criticism no matter what. He doesn't matter what. But
- 27:52Speaker 1: I I respect, you know, the steadfastness he's he's falling through,
- 27:55Speaker 1: he's doing what he said. Maybe he could die by communication,
- 27:57Speaker 1: but I'm not here to micro manage. But I and
- 28:00Speaker 1: he's he's doing the best to get us back to normalcy,
- 28:02Speaker 1: which is very hard, right, I mean, getting off that
- 28:05Speaker 1: emergency footing is it's taken much longer than anyone could
- 28:09Speaker 1: have expected. And it's not just monetary policy, right. I think.
- 28:11Speaker 1: I think the world we live in today, as much
- 28:13Speaker 1: as you know, the hypersensitivity of the news cycle and
- 28:15Speaker 1: the mediums of delivering news have made it, I actually
- 28:18Speaker 1: think what we are in is a normal world, right,
- 28:21Speaker 1: now right, the world is supposed to be uncertain. We're
- 28:23Speaker 1: supposed to be have geopolitical issues, even physical conflict, right,
- 28:27Speaker 1: monetary policy uncertainty, difficulty for businesses. That's what the world's
- 28:32Speaker 1: largely been like for a long period of time. We're
- 28:34Speaker 1: just adjusting and adapting out of an abnormal period, which
- 28:38Speaker 1: is why people are kicking and screaming a little bit
- 28:40Speaker 1: more so here, let me bring this back to the
- 28:43Speaker 1: active versus passive question. The thing that I find astonishing
- 28:47Speaker 1: over the past decade is there are a whole slew
- 28:53Speaker 1: of funds I can think of one of two fidelity
- 28:56Speaker 1: I could think of without naming fund names or managers
- 28:59Speaker 1: or whatever. There is a run of funds that I
- 29:01Speaker 1: have watched shoot the lights out for a decade and
- 29:05Speaker 1: they're still seeing outflows. That's sort of hard to reconcile. Yeah,
- 29:10Speaker 1: I think, you know, that's the one part that I think,
- 29:12Speaker 1: uh As I mentioned, you know, technology is gonna bring
- 29:14Speaker 1: about cheaper vehicles as there's been a tremendously difficult asset
- 29:18Speaker 1: allocation questions people have had to, you know, answer as well.
- 29:21Speaker 1: As you have an aging population and you have to
- 29:23Speaker 1: shift towards fixed income, you have actually the wrong time.
- 29:26Speaker 1: You want those sorts of coupons and yields and fixed
- 29:28Speaker 1: income as the assets are shifting that way. So I
- 29:31Speaker 1: think that's that's a bit of the element I think
- 29:33Speaker 1: you're you're seeing explaining there in that even if you've
- 29:36Speaker 1: done a good job, you're still seeing outflows because there
- 29:38Speaker 1: is great at your asset allocation equation going on outside
- 29:41Speaker 1: of us. But I don't mean equity to fixed income.
- 29:44Speaker 1: You're seeing outflows from outperforming equity net of fees, even
- 29:48Speaker 1: after fees towards passive. I'm kind of perplexed by that. Yeah,
- 29:52Speaker 1: it's a baby with the bathwater sort of them. Yeah,
- 29:55Speaker 1: you know, I think there's there's probably a little bit
- 29:56Speaker 1: of element of that. I think, you know, they also
- 29:58Speaker 1: maybe slightly underappreciated thing to that. You know, I also
- 30:01Speaker 1: have to remind myself and point out to people sometimes
- 30:04Speaker 1: as if we actually do our job for our clients,
- 30:07Speaker 1: they're going to take all their money because that's the job.
- 30:09Speaker 1: Our job is to take their money from point A
- 30:11Speaker 1: to point B and then they take it all from you. Right,
- 30:14Speaker 1: But they don't do it because you didn't do your
- 30:15Speaker 1: your job, or they're unhappy with you. It's because you
- 30:17Speaker 1: actually accomplished the goal and there you actually should take
- 30:20Speaker 1: some great satisfaction. You know, we've had some clients like that, particularly,
- 30:23Speaker 1: you know in the last couple of years where they've
- 30:25Speaker 1: made now they've reached their goals in terms of their
- 30:27Speaker 1: pension fund you know, uh, targeted returns, and now they
- 30:31Speaker 1: need to shift and ask allocation to a different mode
- 30:33Speaker 1: or a different time horizon or fitting their liability Matt,
- 30:37Speaker 1: you know, match now and we've just done our jobs.
- 30:39Speaker 1: So thank you very much. We've we've delivered what we
- 30:42Speaker 1: had to do. So you you you're gonna always get
- 30:44Speaker 1: a constant ooment of that too, even with great managers,
- 30:45Speaker 1: I think losing money. So along those lines, I know
- 30:48Speaker 1: some people are focused on demographics as an input into markets.
- 30:54Speaker 1: I don't know if I've been especially persuaded by it,
- 30:56Speaker 1: but some people really buy into that thesis. Do you
- 31:00Speaker 1: think this generational shift into retirement from equities to fixed
- 31:05Speaker 1: income is going to have an impact on the market
- 31:07Speaker 1: overall or is it just all built in and people
- 31:11Speaker 1: are are stressing over that shift generational shift way too much. Yeah,
- 31:15Speaker 1: I think it's people were a little bit hyper sensitive
- 31:17Speaker 1: into near term issues. You know, I think sort of
- 31:19Speaker 1: the more things changed, the more they stay the same
- 31:20Speaker 1: in the long run, you know. So I'm not hypersentive
- 31:23Speaker 1: to you shift there, and in fact, even if you
- 31:25Speaker 1: look at your options, I think as an investor, and
- 31:27Speaker 1: here maybe i'll sound a little bit biased as an
- 31:29Speaker 1: equity guy, I'm actually happy I'm an equity investor and
- 31:32Speaker 1: not a fixed income investor right now, because I think
- 31:34Speaker 1: that's a hard job. Seven percent is an appealing that's
- 31:37Speaker 1: very hard job. So call me lazy, but I just
- 31:40Speaker 1: think I have an easier job right now as an
- 31:41Speaker 1: equity investor versus fixed income. To be fair, they've had
- 31:44Speaker 1: a really easy thirty years and now that seems to
- 31:47Speaker 1: be coming to its end um, whereas equity investors have
- 31:51Speaker 1: had a little more challenging couple of decades with between
- 31:54Speaker 1: the dot com and the financial crisis. I would say
- 31:57Speaker 1: the roles are now starting to reve No, I agree,
- 32:00Speaker 1: So that's you know, that's that So maybe yes, now
- 32:02Speaker 1: it's time for them to pay a little bit of
- 32:04Speaker 1: a price of admission, right and us to have a
- 32:05Speaker 1: little easier time. But if you look at the two
- 32:08Speaker 1: against each other, to your question of whether people will
- 32:10Speaker 1: or should continue to shift out of equities. I mean,
- 32:13Speaker 1: if you look at the prospect in the right equity strategy,
- 32:15Speaker 1: still the yield even you're getting there on a coupon.
- 32:18Speaker 1: If you have real cash flow and real access cash
- 32:20Speaker 1: flow to distribute to your owners of the business, your shareholders,
- 32:23Speaker 1: you know, you can get growth which gives you some
- 32:25Speaker 1: inflation protection plus a coupon. You know. I think equities
- 32:28Speaker 1: are still very compelling, and that's why. Actually, you know,
- 32:30Speaker 1: when people ask me about the market now recently, my
- 32:33Speaker 1: my word for the market, you know, where I was
- 32:35Speaker 1: a bit more concerned at the beginning of the years.
- 32:37Speaker 1: I think this market has potential. And I use that
- 32:39Speaker 1: word very carefully because it is the word deliberately. I
- 32:42Speaker 1: think you used to describe often a bad sports team
- 32:45Speaker 1: or an unruly child. Right, here's all these bad things
- 32:48Speaker 1: you see, But hey, this kid's got potential, right. I
- 32:50Speaker 1: think the markets a little bit like that. In a
- 32:52Speaker 1: lot of the issues are correctable that we're concerned about
- 32:56Speaker 1: or weighing down economics or geopolitics or you know, in
- 33:00Speaker 1: the way of monetary policy. So people should be a
- 33:03Speaker 1: little bit careful on the equity side to not swing
- 33:05Speaker 1: too far in sentiment particularly too far negative, because this
- 33:08Speaker 1: market could have a lot of potential when you look
- 33:10Speaker 1: at what you can buy, what you pay, and what
- 33:12Speaker 1: you get still when you pay for it in terms
- 33:14Speaker 1: of a coupon and growth, it's still quite attractive. And
- 33:17Speaker 1: then particularly when you start to look at some of
- 33:18Speaker 1: your alternatives for your capital. Let's talk about markets today
- 33:22Speaker 1: a little bit. Um. You mentioned earlier equities have potential.
- 33:28Speaker 1: Where do you think we are in the overall equity
- 33:30Speaker 1: cycle and does that impact the way you construct a portfolio? Yeah?
- 33:35Speaker 1: I think, uh, you know, now we're digging into the
- 33:37Speaker 1: trillion dollar question right right where is the world going? Uh?
- 33:41Speaker 1: You know, and and not to dodge it in classic faction,
- 33:44Speaker 1: but you know, we want to build a portfolio where
- 33:46Speaker 1: I don't need to know the answer to the question
- 33:48Speaker 1: number one. I think that's the key to investment success,
- 33:50Speaker 1: not having to answer these trillion dollar questions. And you can,
- 33:54Speaker 1: remarkably you can invest that way without having to need
- 33:57Speaker 1: to know that answer. But putting that aside, and just
- 34:00Speaker 1: which by the way, is arguably unknowable. Yeah, exactly, you know,
- 34:04Speaker 1: the the the unknown owns or however the Rumsfeld and
- 34:08Speaker 1: you know quote goes Uh, but if I think if
- 34:10Speaker 1: you step back, you know, honestly, in terms of looking
- 34:12Speaker 1: at the data and the facts, you know, uh, the
- 34:14Speaker 1: economic cycle you know has still good underpinnings if you
- 34:18Speaker 1: look at the fundamentals of the U. S economy. But
- 34:20Speaker 1: we gotta say we're later stage at an earlier stage, right,
- 34:22Speaker 1: I mean, I think just having some context of where
- 34:24Speaker 1: you are is the only thing you can kind of
- 34:26Speaker 1: get down to if you are top down. And I
- 34:28Speaker 1: think even that can help though as well. And that
- 34:30Speaker 1: I say that too in that you know, you've seen
- 34:32Speaker 1: this little fits and start around the market and in
- 34:35Speaker 1: this concern of well people shift out of growth to
- 34:37Speaker 1: value again. You know, we've also we've talked a little
- 34:39Speaker 1: about fixed income equity and passive active, but there's also
- 34:42Speaker 1: been this other battle going on or raging between styles
- 34:45Speaker 1: and growth and value. And value had had a long
- 34:47Speaker 1: period of success and then has now been in the
- 34:49Speaker 1: dulgrums and people are just waiting with bated breath for
- 34:52Speaker 1: this big rotation back. And the problem there I have
- 34:54Speaker 1: to your you know, sort of where are we in
- 34:56Speaker 1: the cycle question is the only place where you find
- 34:59Speaker 1: a bit of rel to cheapness comes with a lot
- 35:01Speaker 1: more commisure at risk in terms of cyclicality. So if
- 35:04Speaker 1: you want to wade into those waters here, you better
- 35:07Speaker 1: know the answer to the question you're asking me, because
- 35:09Speaker 1: that's the danger in investing when you look at a
- 35:11Speaker 1: p that might look relatively cheaper, but the E disappears.
- 35:15Speaker 1: So actually you thought you underpaid, but you ended up
- 35:17Speaker 1: overpaying because your E wasn't predictable and disappeared, which is
- 35:21Speaker 1: also a big piece of the risk you want to
- 35:23Speaker 1: mitigate with better quality businesses as a starting point, as
- 35:25Speaker 1: long as you know where the E is or should
- 35:27Speaker 1: roughly be, you can actually can start to strike a
- 35:30Speaker 1: more appropriate approximation of what that business is worth. But
- 35:34Speaker 1: when the E is uncertain, you've got to know where
- 35:36Speaker 1: you are in the cycle. And as I said in context,
- 35:38Speaker 1: you have to think we're later rather than earlier. So
- 35:41Speaker 1: if you can identify a company with a predictable, reliable E,
- 35:47Speaker 1: a reliable earning stream, does that company demands a premium
- 35:51Speaker 1: as an investor? Is it a higher valuation for that
- 35:54Speaker 1: earning stream? Yeah? I think that's you know, the other
- 35:57Speaker 1: human nature element. You know, we capitalize on, and I
- 36:00Speaker 1: think people need to capitalize on right we're, as people were,
- 36:04Speaker 1: sort of generally a bit cheap. Right. We're always looking
- 36:06Speaker 1: for a deal. Right. That's why sales work, signs work,
- 36:09Speaker 1: advertising works. Deal deal, deal x per cent off. It's
- 36:12Speaker 1: like a magnet, right, we are attracted to that. That's
- 36:15Speaker 1: human nature and what you miss and that when you
- 36:18Speaker 1: take that behavior aspect to the finance world into investing
- 36:21Speaker 1: is the reality that you get what you pay for
- 36:24Speaker 1: in life, very much so in investing. So to your question, yes,
- 36:27Speaker 1: you should pay more for a better business with a
- 36:30Speaker 1: longer tale of earnings growth. Because also one problem we
- 36:34Speaker 1: have in investing in the finance world is we're as
- 36:36Speaker 1: many smart people are in this industry and as sophisticated
- 36:39Speaker 1: as the industry is, it's actually still pretty rudimentary when
- 36:43Speaker 1: we look at important things like valuation. Right, people often
- 36:45Speaker 1: are looking at pe simplistically pe one or f y
- 36:49Speaker 1: one p out one year. There's a real lack of
- 36:51Speaker 1: imagination right in that in that analysis, right, because the
- 36:54Speaker 1: earnings where they are in five years should be what
- 36:57Speaker 1: really matters. Where they are in ten years should be
- 36:59Speaker 1: where what really matters. Right, So, if you're myopically stuck
- 37:03Speaker 1: in this world where you're looking at current p or
- 37:05Speaker 1: even just f y one or f y two p E,
- 37:08Speaker 1: you're really missing the forest for the trees there. You
- 37:10Speaker 1: need that E five and ten years out. And that's
- 37:13Speaker 1: where quote unquote paying up for it or paying more
- 37:17Speaker 1: for it today actually is delivering you a lot of
- 37:20Speaker 1: inherent investment value because that embedded value is out in
- 37:23Speaker 1: the tail, the tail of the growth of the business
- 37:25Speaker 1: and the sustainability of the business. That so, in other words,
- 37:28Speaker 1: you're a long term investor, is what you're saying here.
- 37:31Speaker 1: It's one of the only advantages you can have, right,
- 37:33Speaker 1: it's the basics. And when we stick to the basics,
- 37:35Speaker 1: and look, you know, call us you know, or say
- 37:38Speaker 1: maybe we have a lack of imagination because like all
- 37:41Speaker 1: great things, often great business is great fortunes. Right, we
- 37:43Speaker 1: we stole it from someone else. We we took it
- 37:46Speaker 1: from Warren Buffett. Right, we took the playbook and we
- 37:48Speaker 1: just try to apply discipline with a great team and
- 37:51Speaker 1: a stable team to that. I think that's where you
- 37:53Speaker 1: add a lot of value to and continuity knowledge is cumulative.
- 37:56Speaker 1: Having a great team intact for a long period of time.
- 38:00Speaker 1: All buying in buying into the investment religion being disciplined.
- 38:04Speaker 1: You have to be long term to your question, it's
- 38:06Speaker 1: it's the one basic advantage you need to exercise. Yet
- 38:10Speaker 1: we live in a world in an investment construct where
- 38:13Speaker 1: everything is happening to fight that right, Everything is trying
- 38:16Speaker 1: to break you down from the long term right. And
- 38:20Speaker 1: that's also why when people look about you're talking about
- 38:22Speaker 1: investing today, you know, has it gotten harder, easier? Actually,
- 38:25Speaker 1: you know, the dynamics are are quite similar. Once again,
- 38:28Speaker 1: you know, the more they change, the more they stay
- 38:29Speaker 1: the same. The environment has probably gotten more volatile and
- 38:32Speaker 1: more violent. So the advantage of buying hold or patience
- 38:35Speaker 1: is as prevalent, I think as it ever was. I
- 38:37Speaker 1: think the distractions are greater today and faster today than
- 38:40Speaker 1: ever before. But I have to ask you a question,
- 38:43Speaker 1: Um that you alluded to with um predictions. And I'm
- 38:50Speaker 1: not asking you to make a prediction. I'm asking you,
- 38:52Speaker 1: how do you, as a portfolio manager deal with what
- 38:56Speaker 1: seems like a never ending stream of geopolitical events occurring
- 39:02Speaker 1: in real time. So earlier in the fall, we had
- 39:05Speaker 1: the impeachment inquiry begin in the House of Representatives, you
- 39:09Speaker 1: had the Brexit slash. Um UK Supreme Court eleven two. Oh, repudiate,
- 39:16Speaker 1: Boris Johnson. You've been a global investor, a European investor,
- 39:21Speaker 1: now a US investor. Do you look at or even
- 39:25Speaker 1: think about these geopolitical events or are they just background
- 39:28Speaker 1: noise that do not affect the E five years out?
- 39:34Speaker 1: I think there's two pieces, you know. One, you really do,
- 39:36Speaker 1: as we've talked a lot about, have to be just
- 39:38Speaker 1: focused on the business, business, business. But on the other hand,
- 39:41Speaker 1: you do have to have a pulse, a finger on
- 39:43Speaker 1: the pulse you know, of the market where they're at,
- 39:45Speaker 1: because that's what can bring you greater opportunity, right understanding
- 39:49Speaker 1: what the general feeling and sentiment is and where that's
- 39:52Speaker 1: detached from real long term reality. So you do as
- 39:55Speaker 1: a portfolio manager and as investor. I think I have
- 39:57Speaker 1: to have your hand in both of those buckets, right,
- 40:00Speaker 1: the most important one though, still being get the business
- 40:02Speaker 1: right and the key to managing as you've said, and
- 40:05Speaker 1: we've done it quite successfully fortunately, all this as I
- 40:08Speaker 1: called it earlier, to this return to normalcy and volatility,
- 40:11Speaker 1: uncertainty with tariffs and trades and and and and political shifts.
- 40:15Speaker 1: You know, the best way we've been prepared for that
- 40:17Speaker 1: is having businesses that wouldn't be largely affected by that,
- 40:20Speaker 1: and that sort of shocked people sometimes, Yeah, you can
- 40:22Speaker 1: do that. Actually, you know, you you can have businesses
- 40:25Speaker 1: that are much less affected by the macro, much less
- 40:27Speaker 1: affected by the geopolitics, you know, much better, less affected
- 40:30Speaker 1: by shifts in disruption in certain industries. That's been your
- 40:34Speaker 1: best game plan over the last couple of years versus
- 40:37Speaker 1: trying to predict the next tweet and where tariffs are
- 40:40Speaker 1: going or the next outcome of the next election. Right,
- 40:43Speaker 1: that has been your road to success. But having your
- 40:46Speaker 1: finger on the pulse, as I mentioned though, does help
- 40:49Speaker 1: when you realize people are getting a bit mannic about it.
- 40:51Speaker 1: You know, we are we are people, and we get
- 40:53Speaker 1: frenzied and we get manic. So if you do follow this,
- 40:56Speaker 1: and we do, you know you follow closely. I read
- 40:58Speaker 1: three newspapers a day. I think you you have to
- 41:00Speaker 1: keep keep your finger in the flow of how public
- 41:03Speaker 1: sentiment is moving because you can use that to your advantage.
- 41:06Speaker 1: Back in the investment world, even with quality companies taking
- 41:09Speaker 1: advantage of excessive pestimism or optimism. What about something that
- 41:13Speaker 1: UH started regionally and now is looking like it might
- 41:16Speaker 1: become global something like negative interest rates. Japan has had
- 41:19Speaker 1: them for a while, they seem to be now expanding.
- 41:22Speaker 1: In Europe they are literally trillions of dollars with a
- 41:26Speaker 1: negative coupon. Can this come to the United States? Do
- 41:29Speaker 1: you worry about whether or not this will have an
- 41:32Speaker 1: impact on your portfolio? Yeah? I'm much more worried longer
- 41:36Speaker 1: term about binary events, you know, than I need to
- 41:39Speaker 1: because of our style of day to day or cyclical events.
- 41:42Speaker 1: And there's two I worry about one. I think, you know,
- 41:45Speaker 1: there is no such thing as a free lunch in
- 41:47Speaker 1: this this this these experiments and exaggeration and extremism and
- 41:51Speaker 1: monetary policy, they have a payback, right, and we all
- 41:55Speaker 1: we all kind of have an idea of what it
- 41:57Speaker 1: could be, but we won't guess it exactly and will
- 41:59Speaker 1: probably miss out on the magnitude of it. But there
- 42:02Speaker 1: will be a payback for the negative interest rate environment, right.
- 42:05Speaker 1: There is no free lunch on that. So that going
- 42:08Speaker 1: to be you know, I think in the bond market
- 42:10Speaker 1: it's going to be very difficult because you know, this
- 42:12Speaker 1: is often where we don't sort of see around the corner, right,
- 42:14Speaker 1: We're focused on the near term goals. You know, a
- 42:17Speaker 1: major central banking goal, right is to spur inflation, right,
- 42:20Speaker 1: and let's you know, if if God forbid, they're successful
- 42:23Speaker 1: in that, you're going to decimate coupon investors, right. So
- 42:26Speaker 1: it's in order to achieve their goal, they're actually going
- 42:28Speaker 1: to cause the great damage at the end of the day.
- 42:31Speaker 1: So I think that is clearly still the problem. You know,
- 42:34Speaker 1: there is this tendency, and I know it's sort of
- 42:35Speaker 1: been like the you know, screaming fire in a crowded
- 42:38Speaker 1: movie theater for a while. You know, fear of inflation,
- 42:40Speaker 1: fear of inflation, fear of inflation. I can't tell you
- 42:43Speaker 1: when it's going to happen, but I can tell you
- 42:44Speaker 1: there's great effort to do it, and there are tools
- 42:47Speaker 1: to really do it if you want to go to
- 42:48Speaker 1: extreme end. So that will end up in a poor payback,
- 42:52Speaker 1: I think for investors who are in negative yielding security,
- 42:55Speaker 1: and I think that's a problem. The other issue I think,
- 42:58Speaker 1: aside from that in the Interest rate Act drop is
- 43:01Speaker 1: what we're facing in terms of I call it this
- 43:03Speaker 1: sort of Balkanization of the world. You know, what we
- 43:05Speaker 1: see and playing out in geopolitics is not about terrorists
- 43:09Speaker 1: it's not about a current account deficit, you know, has
- 43:11Speaker 1: wider framifications. If we continue, we're sort of pushing this world.
- 43:15Speaker 1: And I'm not saying continue in terms of a political
- 43:17Speaker 1: sense of being right or wrong, but just the path
- 43:19Speaker 1: we're on generally speaking, which I think doesn't have to
- 43:22Speaker 1: do with just one present or one admits, meaning deglobalization
- 43:25Speaker 1: or something more special, not necessarily a total deglobalization. But
- 43:29Speaker 1: you you split the world into two spheres, you know,
- 43:31Speaker 1: they'll be the US Western sphere, and then they'll be
- 43:33Speaker 1: the Chinese sphere, right, and they'll be people who have
- 43:35Speaker 1: to make a choice or countries that have to make
- 43:37Speaker 1: a choice of which sandbox you want to play in? Right,
- 43:39Speaker 1: the rules are going to be different in the two
- 43:40Speaker 1: different sandboxes, which is where the tension is today. Right,
- 43:43Speaker 1: the the US and the Lightheisers are saying, look, you're
- 43:46Speaker 1: in our sandbox. There's rules to playing in our sandbox,
- 43:49Speaker 1: and you haven't been following the rules. You know, we
- 43:51Speaker 1: let you go for a while, but now you need
- 43:53Speaker 1: to follow the rules or you gotta get out of
- 43:54Speaker 1: the sandbox. As the extreme sort of outcome, and the outcome,
- 43:58Speaker 1: as I said, the extreme result could be a balkanization
- 44:01Speaker 1: where they say, look, we'll get out of your sandbox.
- 44:02Speaker 1: Who wants to come in our sandbox? You know? And
- 44:05Speaker 1: and then you have this whole ecosystem around Asia, word
- 44:07Speaker 1: becomes a bigger shoe. Like Taiwan. They're in a pickle, right,
- 44:10Speaker 1: which sandbox are you in there? South Korea? Which sandbox
- 44:13Speaker 1: are you in there? That's alongside interest rates, that's a
- 44:16Speaker 1: These are both longer term issues, clearly, but those are
- 44:19Speaker 1: longer term binary issues that if anything, worry me a
- 44:23Speaker 1: little bit, right. It makes the world a bit more complicated.
- 44:26Speaker 1: It makes the success or collective success a lot of
- 44:29Speaker 1: us could have had a lot harder to achieve. Uh,
- 44:32Speaker 1: it's very disruptive and and and in the downside, as
- 44:36Speaker 1: I said, mostly is we just miss out on what
- 44:37Speaker 1: we could have had, you know, in a collective world.
- 44:39Speaker 1: But it look at it's life. It is what it is.
- 44:41Speaker 1: I in a passing judgment whether it's good or about
- 44:43Speaker 1: it either, you know, I think it's just the reality.
- 44:45Speaker 1: And that's investing what we have to deal with reality,
- 44:47Speaker 1: not hopes and dreams. Hope isn't a strategy, as they say,
- 44:50Speaker 1: We've got to deal with reality and the reality is
- 44:52Speaker 1: we're fracturing. So so let's talk about strategies. Since you
- 44:55Speaker 1: mentioned that Von Tobel has six broad investment strategies, what
- 45:00Speaker 1: areas do you focus on within those six and how
- 45:04Speaker 1: much of this is global, European, Asian and US or
- 45:08Speaker 1: more specifically different approaches by style. This is where we're
- 45:13Speaker 1: actually a little bit unique. You know, it's hard to
- 45:16Speaker 1: say you're unique and different in the asset management industry.
- 45:18Speaker 1: Poor fully managers analysts products. It seems pretty homogeneous, right,
- 45:23Speaker 1: But our team is is sort of rare and unique
- 45:25Speaker 1: in that the same team manage manages those six strategies,
- 45:28Speaker 1: you know, not just myself sitting at the head of it.
- 45:30Speaker 1: I have a collective group of really talented individuals who
- 45:33Speaker 1: support all these products simultaneously and as analysts. And there's
- 45:37Speaker 1: a lot of investment value in that having the same
- 45:39Speaker 1: analyst work on a US equity fund and an emerging
- 45:42Speaker 1: market's equity fund. And it's the way we've been doing
- 45:44Speaker 1: it for two decades. Same skill sets can apply anywhere
- 45:46Speaker 1: in the world, and the world in the businesses compete
- 45:48Speaker 1: across geography surprise surprise, right, and and analyzing a fundamental
- 45:52Speaker 1: business of whether it's a great business and average or
- 45:54Speaker 1: a poor quality business. Perspective is the key to that, right.
- 45:58Speaker 1: Life is all about perspective, and invest things about perspective too,
- 46:01Speaker 1: you know, as the old saying goes, Also, you know,
- 46:04Speaker 1: to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
- 46:06Speaker 1: So you don't want to pigeonhole people, right. You need
- 46:08Speaker 1: them to see a lot of nails. You need to
- 46:10Speaker 1: see broad perspective. So being global and structure as analysts
- 46:14Speaker 1: really helps the scrutinization of what's a great business because
- 46:18Speaker 1: we can look at one in Indonesia, and we can
- 46:20Speaker 1: look at one in Ohio and try to figure out
- 46:22Speaker 1: what are the nuts and bolts that make these great businesses,
- 46:24Speaker 1: And then we're totally agnostic to where it is because
- 46:27Speaker 1: we have a group of portfolios where that name will
- 46:30Speaker 1: then try to compete to get entrance into and all
- 46:33Speaker 1: of our portfolios from a regional basis, our competitions for
- 46:36Speaker 1: capital our universe eliminates. It creates a smaller pond. Out
- 46:40Speaker 1: of the pond comes a smaller subsegment of names. Out
- 46:43Speaker 1: of those names, we build regional portfolios. The best of
- 46:46Speaker 1: those investment opportunities compete up the pyramid up to the
- 46:49Speaker 1: top to our global portfolio. So it's not just an
- 46:52Speaker 1: amalgamation of the geographic portfolios, but it's the best of
- 46:55Speaker 1: the best of those names competing for each other and
- 46:58Speaker 1: having the proper you know, risk diversification alongside of it.
- 47:01Speaker 1: What the businesses do where they do it, so the
- 47:03Speaker 1: fundamental risk is contained and managed. That that's absolutely fascinating.
- 47:07Speaker 1: The one question I have to ask about that are
- 47:11Speaker 1: there any particular geographic regions around the world that you
- 47:16Speaker 1: find are either misunderstood by investors or for reasons that
- 47:21Speaker 1: aren't especially clear, significantly underinvested. When you look around the world,
- 47:28Speaker 1: I think the emerging markets is the class quite frankly,
- 47:31Speaker 1: and uh, you know, I've been actually talking to some
- 47:34Speaker 1: clients recently about this. I'm gonna bring up a name
- 47:36Speaker 1: you might know, the name Elmer Wheeler, right, I don't
- 47:38Speaker 1: know if you've ever familiar. You know, he was around
- 47:40Speaker 1: in the nineteen thirties and the depression. He was a
- 47:42Speaker 1: newspaper reporter in a near and dear to your heart,
- 47:44Speaker 1: and he was fired in the depression as a newspaper
- 47:46Speaker 1: reporter because his boss said, I don't need any reporters.
- 47:49Speaker 1: Amore I needs salespeople, and Elmer Wheeler, you know, as
- 47:52Speaker 1: a pragmatic guy, said all right, I'm gonna be a
- 47:53Speaker 1: great salesperson, and he coined the term that sort of
- 47:57Speaker 1: a lot of us know today is an old fashioned
- 47:58Speaker 1: marketing term. Don't sell the stake, sell the sizzle, right,
- 48:02Speaker 1: And it's sort of a classic you think about how
- 48:04Speaker 1: marketing has evolved, a classic thought, right, don't sell the stake,
- 48:07Speaker 1: sell the sizzle. And I think the misunderstanding to your
- 48:10Speaker 1: question on emerging markets is largely because there's been a
- 48:13Speaker 1: lot of sizzle sold. You know, emerging markets has a
- 48:16Speaker 1: great sizzle story. You know, people consume less of this
- 48:19Speaker 1: and they'll consume more of that. You know, they're they're
- 48:21Speaker 1: these poor people, they'll get richer, you know, all these elements.
- 48:24Speaker 1: It's a great sizzle right on top of everything else.
- 48:27Speaker 1: The new expensive world. It plays right into it. And
- 48:30Speaker 1: I think that's been fundamentally wrong in that not that
- 48:33Speaker 1: emerging markets aren't attractive, but it should be about the
- 48:37Speaker 1: stake of emerging markets, and that you should go to
- 48:39Speaker 1: emerging markets, and you really should because there are great
- 48:42Speaker 1: businesses there. I forget the sizzle story. And and let's
- 48:46Speaker 1: also take the fact into consideration that if you bought
- 48:49Speaker 1: the sizzle story, which if you sort of play that
- 48:51Speaker 1: out in a number in GDP growth, right, the emerging
- 48:54Speaker 1: markets take out China and India over the last two decades,
- 48:57Speaker 1: basically their composition or percentage of GDP has been flat.
- 49:01Speaker 1: So you haven't seen the sizzle sizzle, sizzle story outside
- 49:03Speaker 1: of India and China. So if you bought the sizzle,
- 49:05Speaker 1: you've been disappointed. Good news, as I mentioned earlier, as
- 49:07Speaker 1: GDP growth isn't necessarily correlated with stock returns. So if
- 49:10Speaker 1: you've got the steak right, if you've got the great
- 49:13Speaker 1: businesses right, and what's unique and misunderstood about emerging markets
- 49:17Speaker 1: I think is there's actually steak there you can't get
- 49:19Speaker 1: in the developed markets. There's actually businesses and business models
- 49:22Speaker 1: you can't get back in the developed markets, And that
- 49:25Speaker 1: to me is why you should be in emerging markets.
- 49:28Speaker 1: It should be about the businesses, as all investing I
- 49:30Speaker 1: think should be, as we've talked about today. So go
- 49:33Speaker 1: to emerging markets for the steak, not the sizzle. Go
- 49:36Speaker 1: there because there's great businesses you can't get in the
- 49:39Speaker 1: SMP five hundred, or you can't get elsewhere. I think
- 49:41Speaker 1: that's a big misunderstanding, stiff, quite fascinating. Can you stick
- 49:44Speaker 1: around a little bit. I have a few more questions
- 49:46Speaker 1: for you. Absolutely, we have been speaking with Matt Benkendorf,
- 49:50Speaker 1: ce IO of Untomble Quality Growth. If you enjoy this conversation,
- 49:54Speaker 1: be sure and come back for the podcast extras, where
- 49:56Speaker 1: we keep the tape rolling and continue discussing all all
- 50:00Speaker 1: things quality growth. You can find that at Apple iTunes,
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- 50:09Speaker 1: We love your comments, feedback and suggestions right to us
- 50:13Speaker 1: at m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. Be sure
- 50:16Speaker 1: to give us a review on Apple iTunes. You can
- 50:19Speaker 1: check out my weekly column on Bloomberg dot com. Sign
- 50:23Speaker 1: up from my daily reads at Rid Halts dot com.
- 50:26Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at Rid Halts. I'm Barry Ritolts.
- 50:29Speaker 1: You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.
- 50:35Speaker 1: Welcome to the podcast, Matt. Thank you so much for
- 50:37Speaker 1: doing this. I have to tell you, I find your
- 50:41Speaker 1: approach and what Untable Quality Growth does to be kind
- 50:46Speaker 1: of unique and interesting. I know everybody thinks they're unique,
- 50:49Speaker 1: but really, the the approach you guys take especially with
- 50:54Speaker 1: a single investment committee investing all around the world Europe, Asia,
- 50:57Speaker 1: Global and US that it's kind of rare. How has
- 51:02Speaker 1: this structure worked out in terms of your your various
- 51:06Speaker 1: UM funds performances? Yeah, I think you know, two keys
- 51:10Speaker 1: there were quite proud of our results, right, and we're
- 51:12Speaker 1: quite proud one and what we've achieved in terms of
- 51:15Speaker 1: annualized out performance of a couple hundred basis points across
- 51:18Speaker 1: different geographies, so that the style and philosophy has achieved
- 51:21Speaker 1: alpha generation in places like Europe and the US and
- 51:25Speaker 1: emerging markets and global equity simultaneously. That's you've maybe surprising, right,
- 51:30Speaker 1: one mouse trap does work. Actually, you don't need a
- 51:32Speaker 1: different emerging markets mouse trap, which is also I think
- 51:34Speaker 1: a bit of a fallacy. Sometimes you don't need a
- 51:36Speaker 1: different mouse trap for this market. You need one good
- 51:38Speaker 1: style approach. You just need discipline then in a good team.
- 51:41Speaker 1: How how rare is that approach where one team is
- 51:45Speaker 1: doing US and the same team is doing emerging market
- 51:49Speaker 1: and Asia and Europe and global investing from the same
- 51:52Speaker 1: group of analysts. I think it was extremely rare. Two
- 51:55Speaker 1: decades ago, I think more of started to move that
- 51:59Speaker 1: way A little it in more recent years, probably the
- 52:01Speaker 1: last five or seven years, just because businesses have launched
- 52:04Speaker 1: and then they've launched simultaneous products, so they've just sort
- 52:06Speaker 1: of had technology has to admit it easier to sit
- 52:09Speaker 1: in the US and be global as opposed to the
- 52:11Speaker 1: old days where boots on the ground were required. Yeah. Absolutely,
- 52:14Speaker 1: And as you know, businesses have developed now, and those
- 52:17Speaker 1: analysts found this false wall between you know, the Asian
- 52:20Speaker 1: tech analysts and the US tech analysts to be a
- 52:22Speaker 1: little bit, you know, lower than the wall used to seem.
- 52:25Speaker 1: I think that's led people towards our model, but I
- 52:27Speaker 1: think I still think the model is more rare. I
- 52:30Speaker 1: think it does add a lot of value for investors
- 52:32Speaker 1: at the end of the day, particularly as I always
- 52:34Speaker 1: have to be careful with our investment philosophy, you know.
- 52:36Speaker 1: I think that's something people often misunderstood. You misunderstand rather,
- 52:40Speaker 1: you know, they can find something that works, but certain
- 52:42Speaker 1: things that work work in the right situation, right and
- 52:46Speaker 1: and people often try to take that what works and
- 52:48Speaker 1: put it in the wrong situation and they wonder why
- 52:49Speaker 1: it failed. So when you are very narrow and restrictive
- 52:53Speaker 1: in what you're trying to look at and what you're
- 52:55Speaker 1: only willing to ever buy. You know, when you think
- 52:57Speaker 1: about risk the way we think about it, when you
- 53:00Speaker 1: think knowledge is cumulative, when you have longer term holding periods,
- 53:02Speaker 1: when you have lower turnover, right, you can really then
- 53:06Speaker 1: do this successfully with one team. You know, we have
- 53:09Speaker 1: across all of our portfolios, you know, a hundred and
- 53:12Speaker 1: sixty odd names right in the turnover of names annually
- 53:15Speaker 1: is maybe so with a team of twenty one, you
- 53:19Speaker 1: don't need a whole lot of new idea generation. We
- 53:22Speaker 1: do have good new idea generation. You do have to
- 53:24Speaker 1: sell in harvest names. We have evaluation sensitivity and a
- 53:27Speaker 1: strict valuation approach, so you do have to replace names
- 53:30Speaker 1: that do reach fair value. But the process and the
- 53:33Speaker 1: philosophy is what enables us to have success on a
- 53:35Speaker 1: global basis with the structure. I don't know if that
- 53:37Speaker 1: necessarily would work for people who are more benchmark oriented,
- 53:40Speaker 1: right they just want to plus or mind us the
- 53:42Speaker 1: benchmark wade in country and sector. They might need a
- 53:44Speaker 1: whole lot more people, and they might need to be
- 53:45Speaker 1: a little more focused from a strategic standpoint of certain products.
- 53:49Speaker 1: I don't know, it's not it's not my you know approach,
- 53:51Speaker 1: but I think for us it works very well. So
- 53:53Speaker 1: so a hundred and sixty names, constantly servicing new names,
- 53:58Speaker 1: how do you make the determination? And so we went earlier,
- 54:01Speaker 1: we went over negative screen, get rid of stuff you
- 54:04Speaker 1: don't want to look at, a handful of fundamental bottoms
- 54:07Speaker 1: up approach to narrow your list. And and I'm assuming
- 54:12Speaker 1: that the top of that list is still a pretty
- 54:15Speaker 1: big grouping how do you make the determination? This is
- 54:19Speaker 1: the best idea of that group because it feels like
- 54:23Speaker 1: some of that is quantitative, but a lot of it
- 54:26Speaker 1: is subjective and a little squishy. Yeah, there's two elements.
- 54:30Speaker 1: I think. One that's often underappreciated when people think about
- 54:33Speaker 1: what you buy, and they often think of it very
- 54:35Speaker 1: much in a clean slate approach, right. But one is
- 54:39Speaker 1: perspective once again in that we have a live portfolio,
- 54:44Speaker 1: and that live portfolio isn't sort of an organic organism, right,
- 54:47Speaker 1: It's an accumulation of thousands of decisions already that have
- 54:50Speaker 1: been built upon each other. Why we own what we
- 54:52Speaker 1: own today and what size is a consequence of millions
- 54:57Speaker 1: of interacting things. So that I think is im and
- 55:00Speaker 1: to understand as your litmus tests or starting point be
- 55:03Speaker 1: meaning the new new idea has to be a fit relative.
- 55:07Speaker 1: You don't want excess concentration geographically, sector, whatever, or how
- 55:12Speaker 1: does the existing portfolio help decide what the next idea
- 55:16Speaker 1: that comes in is. That's what you mentioned is the
- 55:19Speaker 1: latter I would mention before that, though, the key determinant
- 55:22Speaker 1: is this new idea or business, how is it better
- 55:27Speaker 1: than what we already own? That's the first litmus test.
- 55:30Speaker 1: We've accumulated over time via several decisions, this group of
- 55:34Speaker 1: concentration of these businesses that we like for these reasons.
- 55:37Speaker 1: So now when we evaluate this next business there, how
- 55:41Speaker 1: is it better than the weaker links in the current
- 55:43Speaker 1: portfolio in terms of their relative lower quality versus the
- 55:47Speaker 1: highest quality names in the portfolio? That is a litmus
- 55:50Speaker 1: test is very important to the long term investment journey,
- 55:52Speaker 1: you know, holding yourself to get over that hurdle over time.
- 55:55Speaker 1: I think that's one piece first, and then the other
- 55:58Speaker 1: pieces you point out then is okay, if you hold
- 56:01Speaker 1: that first hard crew test there where you've got to
- 56:04Speaker 1: replace a name if it's going to gain entrance, right,
- 56:07Speaker 1: Maybe sometimes it isn't about replacement. This business is equally
- 56:11Speaker 1: as good as a name we already owned, but it
- 56:14Speaker 1: offers something else from a risk dynamic, which is nice.
- 56:17Speaker 1: And that's where we think about risk very fundamentally. I
- 56:20Speaker 1: think there's way too much focus on the Greek letters
- 56:23Speaker 1: as I as I call them the bait as, the
- 56:24Speaker 1: standard deviations, et cetera. I think they're a byproduct or
- 56:27Speaker 1: they fall out of a good risk management process and approach.
- 56:30Speaker 1: They're not the starting point. The starting point of a
- 56:33Speaker 1: good rich management appross is fundamental, good old fashioned risk management.
- 56:38Speaker 1: What is the business, What drives the business? What are
- 56:40Speaker 1: the economics of the business, what does it do? Where
- 56:43Speaker 1: does it do it? Forget the statistics first that and
- 56:47Speaker 1: then the accumulation of several businesses together as you own them,
- 56:51Speaker 1: having if you can get there, some idiosyncratic drivers, right,
- 56:55Speaker 1: equally good businesses. But what drives this horse is different
- 56:58Speaker 1: from what drives this horse over here. That's great risk
- 57:02Speaker 1: management if you can achieve that over time. So in
- 57:04Speaker 1: your question, you know the decision to get into the portfolios,
- 57:06Speaker 1: you need to upgrade the quality of the portfolio if
- 57:08Speaker 1: you do it, or to hand in hand with that,
- 57:11Speaker 1: how do you improve the fundamental risk dynamics the portfolio
- 57:14Speaker 1: by giving your investors a collective group of business which
- 57:16Speaker 1: is still growing attractively, still durable and predictable, but maybe
- 57:20Speaker 1: has a slightly different of syncratic driver, whereby you do
- 57:23Speaker 1: have some diversification benefits. So I'm gonna ask you a question.
- 57:26Speaker 1: I suspect I know the answer, but I'm compelled to
- 57:29Speaker 1: ask it. Anyway, Most investors have a tendency to swap
- 57:35Speaker 1: out something that is just suffering a temporary price setback,
- 57:39Speaker 1: not necessarily a decrease in business quality, for whatever the
- 57:45Speaker 1: shiny new thing of the day happens to be. How
- 57:48Speaker 1: do you avoid that sort of process where something maybe
- 57:52Speaker 1: is just you know, under performing for a quarter or two,
- 57:56Speaker 1: but there's nothing along with the fundamental business, and yet
- 57:59Speaker 1: here comes is the pretty new thing. How do you
- 58:02Speaker 1: avoid that temptation? Yeah? I think one element is certainly
- 58:08Speaker 1: human temperament, right, I think that's the skill that you
- 58:10Speaker 1: add as a portfolio manager, on top of being a
- 58:12Speaker 1: good analyst over time. It's temperament. Temperament comes with experience,
- 58:15Speaker 1: but temperament is somewhat chemically wired in you as a being.
- 58:19Speaker 1: As you said, you know that tendency to not jump
- 58:20Speaker 1: for the next shiny object. You you have to have
- 58:24Speaker 1: a temperament for that, or at least develop a good
- 58:26Speaker 1: temperament for that. And I think, as you describe properly,
- 58:30Speaker 1: a lot of times, particularly with great businesses, you need
- 58:33Speaker 1: a little bit of patients rights. Even the greatest businesses
- 58:36Speaker 1: with even as Buffett has described them, the widest moats,
- 58:39Speaker 1: face threats. There's people always trying to sack the castle,
- 58:42Speaker 1: you know, and cross the moat of the best businesses
- 58:44Speaker 1: with the biggest moats, and you can't be too hyper
- 58:47Speaker 1: sensitive to that. Over time, you have to realize that
- 58:49Speaker 1: what seems like a crack on the wall of your castle,
- 58:52Speaker 1: when you get a cloth and start to wipe it,
- 58:54Speaker 1: it's just a blemish, right, and it wipes away. So
- 58:57Speaker 1: I think you do need to balance great sound decision
- 59:00Speaker 1: making with good temperament and patients perspective, experience and also
- 59:03Speaker 1: some innate chemical composition helps so that. But the other
- 59:07Speaker 1: piece then you have to appreciate is your own limitations too,
- 59:10Speaker 1: right and where you can fall into these classic pitfalls.
- 59:13Speaker 1: So you do have to know yourself too as an investor,
- 59:15Speaker 1: and they're one element that also makes us different a
- 59:18Speaker 1: little bit as a team and as a firm, we know,
- 59:21Speaker 1: with all these good things I've just talked about, the
- 59:23Speaker 1: single biggest risk with our style over time is complacency
- 59:27Speaker 1: with patients. Patients can easily be synonymous with complacency sometimes also,
- 59:32Speaker 1: so what we've done very successfully to combat complacency, which
- 59:36Speaker 1: is the single biggest investment risk with great businesses complacency
- 59:40Speaker 1: is we have three members of our twenty one member
- 59:42Speaker 1: investment team that are former investigative journalists. They're not classic
- 59:46Speaker 1: investment analysts. They're not your classic NBA's or come out
- 59:49Speaker 1: of consultancy or business. They don't have sector coverage, they
- 59:53Speaker 1: don't have stock responsibility, they don't pick stocks, value stocks.
- 59:56Speaker 1: They're there to fight complacency. They're there as former instigative
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: journalists from you know, from New York. We it's like
- 1:00:04Speaker 1: I always use the analogy here too. It's like if
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: you're getting married and you you wanted the dossier on
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: your spouse before you got married. You want to know
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: everything just you want to face it, accept it, you know.
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: Kind of That's kind of where we want to be
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: as investors, right. We want to know everything bad about
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: the business, large or small, and then The success in
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: investing then ultimately comes with calibrating the sensitivity to those
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: large and small negative aspects. But every business, like every person,
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: has some negative things to be learned or gleamed. The
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: key as an investors just to make sure you know them,
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: make sure you know all available information. So you have
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: you have three people looking at all the individual names
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: in the portfolio or the possible adds to the portfolio.
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: Were both constantly challenging from a devil's advocacy position, weaknesses
- 1:00:50Speaker 1: in our businesses when anything new comes up, digging deeper
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: and into those issues and ferreting out the real facts
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: of the matter so we can accumulate at least determine
- 1:00:59Speaker 1: our own, you know, our own view of the issue,
- 1:01:02Speaker 1: rather than just read the headline of the issue which
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: someone else built upon their own facts. So they're fact finders,
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: their devil's advocates. They're there to challenge us day to day.
- 1:01:11Speaker 1: They're there to challenge even great businesses over the long term,
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: and then very specifically where they've also been able to
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: help us. A lot is looking into narrower issues with
- 1:01:20Speaker 1: the business which might not be negative, could be positive,
- 1:01:23Speaker 1: but a fundamental analyst maybe when they prioritize their time.
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: It could be smaller yet important. But we can dedicate
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: a journalist to dig deeper on a singular issue rather
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: than the analyst, you know, get Meyer down in the
- 1:01:34Speaker 1: fog of war in this one small issue, while they
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: accumulate the bigger, broader picture of the underlying company. That's
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: where they can add a lot of value too. So
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: here's the question, and really it's how do you deal
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: with this? It's very tempting to get sucked in by
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: some of the negative narratives. They seem to be much
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: more resonant emotionally. It's what sells right, they're compelling. You know,
- 1:02:00Speaker 1: someone wrote a piece sometime ago, and I don't want
- 1:02:02Speaker 1: to quote the wrong author, about when when the Right
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: brothers did their first flight, there was no newspaper story,
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: No one paid attention. You guys have going around with flight.
- 1:02:12Speaker 1: What is this gonna become some real industry? It was
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: like a ten years before anyone really took notice. Positive
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: stories sort of fall by the wayside because it requires
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: some imagination. Here's how this could change the world. Negative stories,
- 1:02:28Speaker 1: it's a genuine existential threat to yourself. It's a risk
- 1:02:32Speaker 1: we're wired to respond to negative threats in a much
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: more robust manner than we are to um respond to
- 1:02:41Speaker 1: positive incentives, or so it seems sometimes, how do you
- 1:02:45Speaker 1: avoid that? Hey, all this negative stuff is so easily
- 1:02:49Speaker 1: emotionally compelling. Let's just get rid of this joke. Yeah,
- 1:02:52Speaker 1: I think experience, you know, experience working in this way
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: with the structure of a team with these individuals has
- 1:02:58Speaker 1: been very important. It's been a learning curve from the beginning.
- 1:03:00Speaker 1: So it was an idea at the beginning of how
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: they could fit really well with how we invest and
- 1:03:05Speaker 1: the idea was very simple, right one. Given that period
- 1:03:08Speaker 1: you go back, you know, ten fifteen years ago, the
- 1:03:10Speaker 1: carnage and the news industry had already started. You had
- 1:03:12Speaker 1: read a great smart people there where the industry was
- 1:03:15Speaker 1: being affected by technology, and they were now available, so
- 1:03:18Speaker 1: to speak. Number one. Number two, what reporters clearly do
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: very well, uh in their job is find a subject
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: they often maybe know nothing about, and figure it out,
- 1:03:29Speaker 1: you know, start the building blocks of what makes it tick,
- 1:03:32Speaker 1: to figure out whether to you know, not to skip
- 1:03:34Speaker 1: head to your end point, whether story is good or bad,
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: or just what the story is. Number one. So that
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: was a great analytical skill, and the other one that's
- 1:03:42Speaker 1: most underappreciated. I think where you actually find a differentiation
- 1:03:45Speaker 1: between good or bad or better or worse analysts is
- 1:03:49Speaker 1: everybody can be smart. Everybody can find facts. Everybody can
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: then maybe even put the story together. But can you
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: actually then spit it out and regurgitate it so someone
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: can do something with the information. And that's I think
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: something that investors struggle with two and really smart people
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: sometimes struggle with. Right, they just know so much and
- 1:04:06Speaker 1: they can put it together in their own mind, but
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: they either aren't in the position to make a decision
- 1:04:10Speaker 1: or they can't make a decision because they just can't
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: spit it out. And newspaper reporters obviously that's their job,
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: right they need to put it into a sellable fashion,
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: which means it's articulate, and you need the articulation to
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: be able to make a decision and know what you're
- 1:04:21Speaker 1: dealing with. So I know of a couple of hedge
- 1:04:24Speaker 1: funds that do something very similar. Describe um Vannabelle's structure.
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: How are you form investors? Are they s m A s?
- 1:04:33Speaker 1: Are they funds? How are they putting dollars to work with?
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: With your firm. Our business is roughly a mix I
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: would say of half half, you know, between more institutional
- 1:04:42Speaker 1: oriented investors and then more retail and oriented investors. And
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: in that world, we're a manufacturer of an investment product
- 1:04:50Speaker 1: where a style approach of discipline, we deliver an investment product.
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: And then our partner, who in the u S is
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: Vertus Investment Advisors. They're the distributor of the product to
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: the end retail investors. So we're removed from them, but
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: we help hold them along a journey. So the retail
- 1:05:02Speaker 1: investor they buying s m A separately managed accounts, are
- 1:05:05Speaker 1: they buying mutual funds? They're generally buying mutual funds. You know,
- 1:05:08Speaker 1: we have a we actually as a firm and a
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: well developed firm. We have the whole suite of structures
- 1:05:13Speaker 1: products for our end investors. So we can manage subadvised accounts,
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: we can subadvise mutual funds, we can manage mutual funds.
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: And we have basically half half our business. And then
- 1:05:21Speaker 1: also i'd cut our business also again another half half
- 1:05:24Speaker 1: North America, US focused and international. We have quite a
- 1:05:26Speaker 1: global business, right the parent company Switzerland based, is that right?
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: And they've been around quite a long time. My assumption
- 1:05:34Speaker 1: is institutions tend to be direct investments, not through a
- 1:05:38Speaker 1: fund vehicles that accurate. Yeah, Typically they want to be
- 1:05:41Speaker 1: registered locally, uh and and and they want to an
- 1:05:44Speaker 1: account that maybe sometimes has some customization that they may need.
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: We don't and won't accept a lot of customization. We
- 1:05:50Speaker 1: need to be able to do what we promised we
- 1:05:52Speaker 1: could deliver. You know, I think this business is about integrity.
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: It's saying saying what you're going to do and sticking
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: to it, you know, saying doing what you mean you
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: mean to set out upon. I think integrity is very
- 1:06:02Speaker 1: very important. So our clients, we need to make sure
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: we can deliver with integrity the philosophy process that they
- 1:06:07Speaker 1: bought into, they saw the results for. But sometimes at
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: the institutional level, maybe there's a nuance where there's a
- 1:06:12Speaker 1: market they can't be in for an institutional reason, et cetera.
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: Sometimes we can we can allow that. Quite quite interesting.
- 1:06:18Speaker 1: I want to get to my favorite questions, sort of
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: our speed round that we ask all of our guests.
- 1:06:24Speaker 1: Feel free to uh answer these as as long or
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: as short as you like. Tell us the first car
- 1:06:31Speaker 1: you ever owned, year, make and model. Yeah. As I said,
- 1:06:34Speaker 1: I grew up from a farming family and a landscaping business.
- 1:06:37Speaker 1: So my first car, not surprisingly, was a Chevy pickup truck.
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: I got my license in New Jersey at fifteen because
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: I got a farmer's license because you know, we had
- 1:06:45Speaker 1: a farm, so to speak. And I drove around town
- 1:06:48Speaker 1: with the name of our business and phone number plastered
- 1:06:51Speaker 1: on the side, which could be a good or bad
- 1:06:52Speaker 1: thing depending on how you're driving or where you're driving. What.
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: What's the most important thing that people don't know about you? Uh? Boy? Uh? Look, Uh,
- 1:07:05Speaker 1: I'm I'm a person who cares a lot about other people.
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: You know, I think the other the other half of
- 1:07:10Speaker 1: my job has been managing money, and half of my
- 1:07:12Speaker 1: job has been managing people. And I really do care
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: about the success of my people. Uh it would, And
- 1:07:19Speaker 1: I'm not saying that sort of a way to promote myself.
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: It's admittedly what makes me feel good. You know, people
- 1:07:25Speaker 1: do things for self motivation, and I really do take
- 1:07:28Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of personal satisfaction in the success and others.
- 1:07:33Speaker 1: I've taken great lengths over the last three to four
- 1:07:35Speaker 1: years to build a deeper broader team to build real
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: lead capable portfolio managers. I think we should have a
- 1:07:41Speaker 1: team for our investors where we're all redundant. I think
- 1:07:44Speaker 1: that's a better situation for our investors. So I think
- 1:07:47Speaker 1: maybe not a star system that is one person in
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: the headlines, everybody else is, uh working behind the scene.
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: And I think it's suboptimal for your clients, you know,
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: And I think it's suboptimal for retaining great people longer term,
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: because why do most of us change jobs is because
- 1:08:01Speaker 1: we need opportunity, you know it. Financial is important, right,
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: but people are people and they want self you know, achievement.
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: And I take a lot of satisfaction and that half
- 1:08:10Speaker 1: of my job of really I really smile and I
- 1:08:13Speaker 1: really feel good when I see the accomplishment and achievement
- 1:08:15Speaker 1: of others. And I'm saying that, like I said, not
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: in a self promotional way, in a selfish way. It's
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: what makes me feel good. Uh, let's talk about mentors.
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: Who were your mentors who helped guide your career in law? Yeah, look,
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: there's been several. I think, Uh, you know, you have
- 1:08:30Speaker 1: to go back to your childhood clearly, you know, as
- 1:08:32Speaker 1: most people do their parents. You know, I grew up
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: in one of the traits I try to push once
- 1:08:36Speaker 1: again today is just the the idea of hard work.
- 1:08:38Speaker 1: You know, As I said, we had a small business.
- 1:08:40Speaker 1: We had a business where we dug our hands in
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: the dirt. We worked seven days a week. Uh, work
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: ethic is extremely important to me. And my father in
- 1:08:47Speaker 1: that way and my mother were very important, you know,
- 1:08:50Speaker 1: And we worked when we were out of school. I
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: was at work after school, and we're at work on
- 1:08:54Speaker 1: the weekend, Saturday and Sunday. And I think hard work,
- 1:08:57Speaker 1: that old puritanical work ethic, you know, is very important
- 1:09:00Speaker 1: to me. So from a mentorship, definitely my father instilling
- 1:09:03Speaker 1: that in me, and then from the investment side, which
- 1:09:05Speaker 1: is key you know, to where I am today after
- 1:09:07Speaker 1: that or subsequent to that. You know, there's been a
- 1:09:10Speaker 1: litany of people. I think a lot of it has
- 1:09:12Speaker 1: been read. To start with two. You know. One of
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: the great piece of advice my co manager on our
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: US equity product, did Walls, that gave me earlier in
- 1:09:18Speaker 1: my career, was to read a lot of these money
- 1:09:19Speaker 1: master's books, right, even if it wasn't just equities, Read
- 1:09:22Speaker 1: how other people invest, how they make money. You know
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: whether and fixed income, whether commodities, whether equities, because also
- 1:09:28Speaker 1: the key to long term successful investing is finding something
- 1:09:30Speaker 1: that fits for you. And maybe maybe then equities, maybe
- 1:09:32Speaker 1: it's ficting Tom. Maybe in equities it's value, it's not growth.
- 1:09:35Speaker 1: But a key to success is finding what fits for you.
- 1:09:39Speaker 1: So reading a lot about how other people invest, how
- 1:09:43Speaker 1: they think. Probably you know the nature of what your
- 1:09:45Speaker 1: podcast audience is. I think that's all that's very important
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: that where you can drive mentorship from in a lot
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: of ways, you know how reading and learning from how
- 1:09:54Speaker 1: they think. But then you know, the obvious key instruments
- 1:09:56Speaker 1: in my life have been a lot of the investment
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: professionals around me at the um. You know, it's my
- 1:10:00Speaker 1: team and colleagues today, it's the d Walls as you know,
- 1:10:03Speaker 1: the Henry Schlegel's who's a founding, you know, father of
- 1:10:06Speaker 1: our firm. It's our former colleague, Regieve Jane. It's a
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: number of people at our firm that have helped build
- 1:10:10Speaker 1: me from this kid who came out of you know,
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: university in and has has built his way, you know,
- 1:10:16Speaker 1: like Michael J. Fox did in Secret to my success
- 1:10:18Speaker 1: from the mail room to the top you know, I
- 1:10:20Speaker 1: literally started at the bottom. I started trade processing and settlement,
- 1:10:24Speaker 1: and I worked my way through the organization and along
- 1:10:26Speaker 1: that journey. To your question, there's been people at every
- 1:10:29Speaker 1: stage that have helped me, you know, that have really
- 1:10:31Speaker 1: helped me in certain aspects that i've you know, now
- 1:10:33Speaker 1: put together. You mentioned reading. Tell us some of your
- 1:10:36Speaker 1: favorite books, be they investing related, nonfiction fiction. What do
- 1:10:41Speaker 1: you like to read? You know, I'm boring in a
- 1:10:44Speaker 1: way and that I like to read nonfiction. I like
- 1:10:47Speaker 1: history a lot, you know, some sci fi like I liked.
- 1:10:51Speaker 1: And it's funny the books you end up with, you know,
- 1:10:53Speaker 1: sometimes you wonder how you ended up there. But the
- 1:10:55Speaker 1: current book I'm reading is a biography of f DR
- 1:10:58Speaker 1: from Gene Smith, and it's a really good piece of
- 1:11:01Speaker 1: perspective as you read about that time period and related
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: to the time period today, because I think a lot
- 1:11:06Speaker 1: of investment success also, and why I read history is
- 1:11:09Speaker 1: this element of perspective, getting out of the frenzy and
- 1:11:12Speaker 1: flurry and and and feeling of this is also different
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: and also wild of today to looking back at the
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: way things have been and were, And I think FDRs
- 1:11:22Speaker 1: period is actually quite interesting, right, I mean, you look
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: at what was going on at geopolitical stage, you look
- 1:11:26Speaker 1: at geopolitical missteps. You mentioned it earlier in terms of Powell,
- 1:11:29Speaker 1: in terms of a cabinet committee nomination by Trump, but
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: you know, look what past cabinets were filled with, right,
- 1:11:35Speaker 1: the chrony ism and the lack of experience and capability
- 1:11:38Speaker 1: or poor capability. Have some perspective that over time. You know,
- 1:11:42Speaker 1: I'm not making indictment on a on a political you know,
- 1:11:45Speaker 1: a party or group, but it's pervasive everywhere. Right, So
- 1:11:48Speaker 1: just have that perspective of how decisions in history have
- 1:11:51Speaker 1: played out. Maybe in the short term seemingly difficult or
- 1:11:54Speaker 1: scary or risky. But as Buffett also pointed out to
- 1:11:58Speaker 1: from that period, you know, as he's first investing in
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: the forties, right, who would have ever invested in the
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: environment in the face of you know, carnage in the
- 1:12:05Speaker 1: South Pacific with World War Two? Right, But it was
- 1:12:08Speaker 1: the time to invest. It's for the Yeah, for the
- 1:12:12Speaker 1: long term, it's always a good time to invest. But
- 1:12:14Speaker 1: you've got to have perspective then and sent and and
- 1:12:17Speaker 1: sort of dampen your sensitivity through experience that this stuff
- 1:12:21Speaker 1: we all see and read and hear about today. It
- 1:12:23Speaker 1: has a lot of rhythm to what happened even you know,
- 1:12:26Speaker 1: in the thirties and forties, for one example. So I
- 1:12:28Speaker 1: read a lot of biographies like the FDR is one,
- 1:12:30Speaker 1: give us another book or biography? Look the other one
- 1:12:33Speaker 1: you know that I liked. Unfortunately. You know, this is
- 1:12:35Speaker 1: like you know when you like sports teams and they
- 1:12:37Speaker 1: were unpopular then become popular, right, you know, the the
- 1:12:40Speaker 1: turn off. Hamilton's biography was awesome, Right, But Hamilton's now
- 1:12:43Speaker 1: this global sensation because of the deserved success, right of
- 1:12:47Speaker 1: the play. But Hamilton's, you know, was a character that I,
- 1:12:49Speaker 1: long before all this recent success, had a lot of
- 1:12:51Speaker 1: admiration for in his contribution to our country, which people
- 1:12:54Speaker 1: now I'm proud and I'm glad they broadly learned more about.
- 1:12:57Speaker 1: But that's obviously a great biography. I try to lead
- 1:12:59Speaker 1: a lot of president, you know, sort of presidence. I
- 1:13:01Speaker 1: think you learn a lot about it before you move
- 1:13:03Speaker 1: off of Hamilton's. I have to say, there aren't a
- 1:13:05Speaker 1: lot of authors that you could say, yeah, just grib
- 1:13:08Speaker 1: Any chron out book, it'll be great. He's one of
- 1:13:11Speaker 1: those authors that anything he's written is just spectacular. Fantastic too, right.
- 1:13:16Speaker 1: You know the Jobs book was great, right, Isaacson too.
- 1:13:18Speaker 1: So you get there's certain authors, right what they they
- 1:13:21Speaker 1: what they write is just always great. But I tend
- 1:13:23Speaker 1: to read about people in history and in periods too,
- 1:13:26Speaker 1: so it's not just always people. You know, I've finished
- 1:13:28Speaker 1: a book on the Crusades, you know, certain periods of history.
- 1:13:30Speaker 1: What's the name of the book? Uh? That ish gosh,
- 1:13:33Speaker 1: Now I can't remember the name of that one. Now,
- 1:13:35Speaker 1: you got me? Because so I read a book email
- 1:13:38Speaker 1: to me. I'll make the book I had um Jim
- 1:13:43Speaker 1: Chanos recommended was a World Lit Only by Fire, which
- 1:13:47Speaker 1: covers that sort of Crusades Enlightenment era. And it's just
- 1:13:51Speaker 1: mind and I think visually, and I can picture the
- 1:13:54Speaker 1: book now on my table and sitting there after I
- 1:13:56Speaker 1: finished it. I'll have to come back to you with
- 1:13:58Speaker 1: the name of it. But it wasn't that specific one.
- 1:14:00Speaker 1: But also, you know, I'm not looking for carnage when
- 1:14:03Speaker 1: I read about it the thirties and forties and in
- 1:14:05Speaker 1: the Crusades. But there are lessons to be tremendous lessons
- 1:14:08Speaker 1: to be learned longer term, and that's why I think
- 1:14:10Speaker 1: reading is important. You know unfortunately. I think you know,
- 1:14:12Speaker 1: first of all, radio versus TV isn't important as a
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: medium because you have more time to be thoughtful and
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: reading is time to be thoughtful, and we all need
- 1:14:19Speaker 1: a little bit more of that than a hundred and
- 1:14:21Speaker 1: thirty characters or whatever. We're um. If you ever get
- 1:14:26Speaker 1: a chance to see Walter Isaacson speak in public, I
- 1:14:30Speaker 1: believe it was the t D event their annual conference
- 1:14:33Speaker 1: in June. They had Isaacson speak and I read the
- 1:14:38Speaker 1: Jobs Book and I have UM I forgot what his
- 1:14:42Speaker 1: most recent book was on UM innovators or inventors or
- 1:14:46Speaker 1: whatever it was. I haven't gotten to it yet, but
- 1:14:49Speaker 1: he is a fascinating person doing exactly what you're describing,
- 1:14:55Speaker 1: taking the biography of people from today and using history
- 1:14:59Speaker 1: as a context to show. I think you said this early.
- 1:15:03Speaker 1: The more things change, the more it remains the same.
- 1:15:06Speaker 1: That's the crucial lesson we all need to hold on to,
- 1:15:09Speaker 1: you know, through all the turmoil we see every day
- 1:15:11Speaker 1: on the news, right, that's why? And why is that
- 1:15:14Speaker 1: because we're people right Where people we talked about certain
- 1:15:17Speaker 1: elements where people were animals. We have animalists animalistic nature
- 1:15:19Speaker 1: in certain ways to we really like the negative and
- 1:15:22Speaker 1: and and we just need to step back and appreciate that.
- 1:15:24Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, and then
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: I like to read also, as you can pick up
- 1:15:27Speaker 1: in my books, leadership right, which is also something we
- 1:15:30Speaker 1: wonder about the world today. Right, we need collective leadership
- 1:15:33Speaker 1: rightly where maybe in a vacuum here where we're looking
- 1:15:36Speaker 1: for real clear leadership, because historically there are times where
- 1:15:40Speaker 1: leadership mattered a lot, you know, so I think reading
- 1:15:42Speaker 1: about that's interesting. Tell us about a time you failed
- 1:15:45Speaker 1: and what you learn from the experience. Yeah, you know, uh,
- 1:15:49Speaker 1: when it comes to failure, I I have obviously all
- 1:15:51Speaker 1: the classic pitfalls and investing. You know, we we all
- 1:15:54Speaker 1: sell too early, even great businesses. We do it because
- 1:15:57Speaker 1: we have some valuation sensitivity on top of that, you know,
- 1:15:59Speaker 1: on the other side of the coin, you often hold
- 1:16:01Speaker 1: on too long. But you know, I think my greater
- 1:16:03Speaker 1: failures I hone in on our more personal failures, you know,
- 1:16:06Speaker 1: not you know, not in interpersonal relationship speaking up or
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: or stepping up you know, both in family or friends
- 1:16:13Speaker 1: or things like that. You know, not to get too specific,
- 1:16:15Speaker 1: but those are the failures that I think you hold
- 1:16:17Speaker 1: a little bit closer. Uh, And those are ones that
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: are more important to learn from, because I think the
- 1:16:22Speaker 1: investment ones, they are critical and you do learn from
- 1:16:24Speaker 1: what they are. The obvious ones. I think the real
- 1:16:27Speaker 1: failures we all need to focus on, and I do
- 1:16:28Speaker 1: are are ones where you've fallen short personally and we
- 1:16:32Speaker 1: all we all need to do a better job. What
- 1:16:34Speaker 1: do you do for fun? What do you do when
- 1:16:36Speaker 1: you're not reading biographies or are in the office. Yeah,
- 1:16:40Speaker 1: you know, I um a University of Denver alumni, So
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: I ski. You know. I like to ski, certainly. I
- 1:16:45Speaker 1: love the mountains. I'm a mountain person, even though I
- 1:16:47Speaker 1: live in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, which is a little bit funny.
- 1:16:50Speaker 1: But I got a little best best of both the
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: worlds are in that way, I can live in in
- 1:16:53Speaker 1: the worm and go skiing, and I can wander skiing.
- 1:16:56Speaker 1: I guess that's one way to get it out of
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: my system. The hills are a little lower there. Uh,
- 1:17:01Speaker 1: So I do like to ski. Look, I'm a I'm
- 1:17:02Speaker 1: a family person, you know, so I have two young kids.
- 1:17:05Speaker 1: Quality of life is important for me too. We work hard,
- 1:17:08Speaker 1: we work seven days a week. But I think you
- 1:17:09Speaker 1: need to balance at and keep you know, faith and
- 1:17:11Speaker 1: family and all those elements very very close to your life.
- 1:17:15Speaker 1: They're important, is important. So let's talk about the industry.
- 1:17:19Speaker 1: What are you most optimistic about? What are you most
- 1:17:21Speaker 1: pessimistic about? In the investing industry, I think you've got
- 1:17:25Speaker 1: to be optimistic that, you know, despite all the noise
- 1:17:28Speaker 1: and change, you know, success and investing still comes back
- 1:17:31Speaker 1: to the same playbook, you know, and if you can
- 1:17:33Speaker 1: be disciplined around it. So that excites me, right, where
- 1:17:35Speaker 1: other industries have gotten hollowed out, and they are fundamentally different. Right,
- 1:17:38Speaker 1: if you're a taxi driver and your compete against Uber,
- 1:17:41Speaker 1: your business is different. Right. If you're a restaurant and
- 1:17:44Speaker 1: delivery has come in and delivery apps, your business is different.
- 1:17:46Speaker 1: Our business has had a lot of technological change and influence,
- 1:17:49Speaker 1: and people talk about AI and the snap. But I'm
- 1:17:51Speaker 1: actually quite excited in that we have a we have
- 1:17:53Speaker 1: an employable skill still here. That's kind of nice, right,
- 1:17:57Speaker 1: We still have some value added to bring even as
- 1:17:59Speaker 1: much as things have changed. So I'm really quite excited
- 1:18:02Speaker 1: about that, you know, I'm I'm sort of you know,
- 1:18:05Speaker 1: if I get in negative at all and downtrodden it
- 1:18:07Speaker 1: is sort of around these sort of you know, fissures
- 1:18:10Speaker 1: you know where and as I mentioned very briefly there,
- 1:18:13Speaker 1: you know, community is important to me. We were supposedly
- 1:18:15Speaker 1: living in an age where technology was enhancing community and
- 1:18:19Speaker 1: creating a greater community. But in fact, I think what
- 1:18:21Speaker 1: people are hopefully and seeing and recognizing as we're actually
- 1:18:24Speaker 1: seeing a fracturing of community, you know, because of maybe
- 1:18:27Speaker 1: technology perversely social media and all that. So that scares me, right,
- 1:18:31Speaker 1: because you know, politics are politics, economics are economics, but
- 1:18:35Speaker 1: you know, strong community is very important and locally and
- 1:18:38Speaker 1: on a political stage as well. So I'm a bit
- 1:18:41Speaker 1: negative on that, you know. I know though over the
- 1:18:44Speaker 1: long term, as we said, it's never you know, paid
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: to be a pessimist, as as Buffett also said, I believe,
- 1:18:48Speaker 1: you know, investing is an optimist game and you have
- 1:18:51Speaker 1: to be that and it's been the right way to be.
- 1:18:53Speaker 1: So you don't want to be too near term pessimistic.
- 1:18:55Speaker 1: But you know, a near term me, you get a
- 1:18:56Speaker 1: little bit down. And as you see this, you know,
- 1:18:58Speaker 1: this key element of life fracturing a bit interesting. So
- 1:19:02Speaker 1: a recent college graduate comes to you and is looking
- 1:19:04Speaker 1: for advice about a career in finance. What would you
- 1:19:07Speaker 1: tell them, Yeah, I'd say a lot of things we've
- 1:19:11Speaker 1: talked about. To say, I'll have to point them towards
- 1:19:12Speaker 1: the podcast. But you know, I think you need to
- 1:19:14Speaker 1: find the investment philosophy that works for you number one,
- 1:19:17Speaker 1: because there are a million roads to heaven. You gotta
- 1:19:19Speaker 1: pick the right one for you in the investing world,
- 1:19:21Speaker 1: you know, I I have a mouse trap that works
- 1:19:23Speaker 1: for me and my team and our firm and our
- 1:19:26Speaker 1: temperament and our skill set and our investors. Critically, so
- 1:19:29Speaker 1: you've got to find the right path for you. I
- 1:19:31Speaker 1: think reading and perspective is critical. Being a little less sensitive,
- 1:19:34Speaker 1: being a little bit patient. I think those are the
- 1:19:36Speaker 1: basic things you tell them to work on, you know,
- 1:19:38Speaker 1: be a voracious reader. Uh. And that you know, as
- 1:19:41Speaker 1: we've talked about, there is a good future. You still
- 1:19:42Speaker 1: have an employable skill set, you know. I think the
- 1:19:45Speaker 1: human element is going to continue to create opportunity, continue
- 1:19:48Speaker 1: to drive most people to make mistakes. That's just the
- 1:19:50Speaker 1: law of numbers. And you can stand there ready to
- 1:19:52Speaker 1: capitalize upon them and and and make money. But critically
- 1:19:56Speaker 1: preserve capital, you know, preserve one compound Number two and
- 1:20:00Speaker 1: our final question, what do you know about the world
- 1:20:03Speaker 1: of investing today that you wish you knew twenty years
- 1:20:06Speaker 1: ago or so when you were first starting out. Yeah,
- 1:20:11Speaker 1: that's a good one. What would I have wanted to
- 1:20:13Speaker 1: know twenty years ago today? Uh, you know, aside from
- 1:20:17Speaker 1: the generic things that would leave to two general investment success,
- 1:20:21Speaker 1: you know, you'd want to know how complicated the businesses
- 1:20:26Speaker 1: outside of just the you know, the investing aspect, in
- 1:20:28Speaker 1: the analytical aspect, right. I think it's why it's important
- 1:20:31Speaker 1: for people, and it was helpful in my own background,
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: as I mentioned my past, to know how the plumbing works, right,
- 1:20:37Speaker 1: the plumbing is becoming even more important. You know how
- 1:20:40Speaker 1: markets trade, how trades to element works, how that those
- 1:20:44Speaker 1: elements work. I think that's twenty years ago. That was
- 1:20:48Speaker 1: something that wasn't paris not taught in school. You know,
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: you don't learn about the plumbing. You try to get
- 1:20:51Speaker 1: a job, go to graduate school and come out and
- 1:20:52Speaker 1: be an analyst or be a successful investor. You sort
- 1:20:54Speaker 1: of skip ahead, you know. So I think that's an
- 1:20:56Speaker 1: important aspect. Do you want to really know with investing
- 1:20:59Speaker 1: or any thing, have that foundation of how things work first?
- 1:21:03Speaker 1: Where generally people have a tendency to want to jump
- 1:21:05Speaker 1: ahead and solve the problems, you know, or so go
- 1:21:08Speaker 1: to the headline of the issue without backing down and
- 1:21:11Speaker 1: understanding the plumbing. So I think that's the that's the
- 1:21:13Speaker 1: advice I would have known. I want to know more
- 1:21:15Speaker 1: of the plumbing, and I think I think we've done
- 1:21:17Speaker 1: a decent job preparing for that, and I think we're
- 1:21:19Speaker 1: ahead of that certainly where we are today, because that's
- 1:21:21Speaker 1: another key element we didn't even get into today, you know,
- 1:21:23Speaker 1: the mechanics and plumbing of the markets, and where we
- 1:21:25Speaker 1: are now versus where we used to be in that
- 1:21:27Speaker 1: interaction with investing is going to be more important, quite
- 1:21:31Speaker 1: quite interesting. Matt, thank you for being so generous with
- 1:21:34Speaker 1: your time. We have been speaking with Matt Benkendorff, ce
- 1:21:38Speaker 1: IO of on Tobol Quality Growth. UH. If you enjoy
- 1:21:41Speaker 1: this conversation, well be sure and look up an Inch
- 1:21:44Speaker 1: or down an Inch on Apple iTunes and you could
- 1:21:46Speaker 1: see any of the previous two hundred and sixty or
- 1:21:50Speaker 1: so of these we've had over the past five plus years. UH.
- 1:21:53Speaker 1: We love your comments, feedback and suggestions right to us
- 1:21:58Speaker 1: at m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. Be sure
- 1:22:01Speaker 1: and give us a review on Apple iTunes. I would
- 1:22:05Speaker 1: be remiss if I did not thank the Crack staff
- 1:22:07Speaker 1: that helps put these conversations together each week. Karen O'Brien
- 1:22:12Speaker 1: is my audio engineer. Michael Batnick is my head of research.
- 1:22:16Speaker 1: I'm Barry Hults. You've been listening to Masters in Business
- 1:22:20Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio