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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 17 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BED
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio. I am joined
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: as always by Mike cost my companion, Michael Padre, my
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, So I'm in.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Hello Chad. Do you have a nice holiday?
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Beautiful holiday? We celebrated the traditional Jewish Christmas. We went
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: to a movie. We got Chinese food. It was semi
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: glorious because it turns out I don't like Chinese food
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: and I'm eating the Chinese food. And I said to
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: my wife, you know what, I just don't like it.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Every year we get it and I don't like it,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: and she goes, every year, you say it, Why do
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: you have to say it? And my son goes, yeah,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: don't yuck, our young dad. The good news is no
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: one gave me a cake, which I wouldn't have eaten
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: because I'm like Patrick Mahomes, I'm like Derrick Henry, I'm
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: like Lamar Jackson. I am in my playoff diet because
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: I'm always in my playoff diet because sugar and carbs
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: are the enemy and we know this, and I feel
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: like Netflix should have had more forethought to not offer
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: a cake. Two professional athletes who are so specific about
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: their diet. What do you think of that?
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: I don't mind it. I don't know how I feel
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: still about the Netflix experience, what about you? But it
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: kind of throws off trying to flip between NFL and NBA,
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: which I wasn't too big with a fan of like
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: it made it more of a hassle. And I noticed
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: the commercials on Netflix, like you know, the two minute drill.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: I think one team punted and they immediately went to
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: another commercial after already doing a commercial with the two
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: minute mark. And it's like, oh god, this is the
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: part of capitalism I hate. It's just getting way too aggressive.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: So I'm excited to see what the numbers are Chad,
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: because those are two bad games from I would say
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: the general public's perspective, But I honestly enjoyed it. We
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: saw like two of the best quarterbacks just doing their thing,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: dominating teams that you know they are playoff teams, so
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: you can tell some teams are getting ready ramping it
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: up heading into the playoffs. Other teams are just hanging
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: on right, just limping into the playoffs because it's been
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: such a long season, so weah pretty insane Christmas Day games.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: It was really telling. Yeah, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: when we were talking about this game, we basically said,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: are we buying this team that is getting better and
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: is proving it with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, they
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: are all of a sudden, they've been hanging on to
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: get to fifteen to one, fifteen and one the last
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: three games. They are legit. And it's hard to say
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: that about a fifteen to one team, but boy, now
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: they get three weeks to get everybody held healthy, to
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: get the first round game, the second round game at home,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: to have that advantage. It is setting up so perfectly
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: for them and the Ravens, like all of a sudden,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: their defense looks better. It had been getting better. The
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: back half of that defense have been getting better and better.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: They were helped because, boy, we've been talking about CJ.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Shroud looking terrible all year. They made him look like
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: a rookie. In Week one. He could not hit passes.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: He was getting taking bad sacks. This Texans team and
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: the Steelers too, What happened was all four teams did
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: what we thought they were going to do and what
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: they've been proving to do all year. They were exactly
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: who their records in play showed they were exactly.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's also I do think it's about what
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: we talked about the injuries. Like the Ravens, their whole
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: offense is healthy. The Houston, you know, they've lost their
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: two receivers, they have a bunch of on the offensive line,
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: and like you said a couple weeks ago, Joe Mixon
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: has not looked right, like he just not had the
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: same burst hitting the holes the same way. And for
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh game, I think it's a blessing, honestly, this
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: last stretch here, because now I think they might avoid
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: paying Russell Wilson legit money. Like there was a minute
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: there they were about to give him, like what a
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: three year, one hundred million dollar contract, and you know,
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: they basically hit a wall with him that he just
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: as good as he is, right as good as he looked,
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: you can still see that he just makes these really
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: bad mental errors that just catch up with him. So yeah,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: it's it's a good time for people been favorites. Man
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: like this is just the craziest time we're living in.
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: You just blindly bet these favorites and they're just cashing.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: No problem.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Two more, two more road favorites cash. Yesterday Steelers lost
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: at home, the Texans lost at home, the Ravens won easily,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs one easily. Let's get into it today. As
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: our NFL Week seventeen Best Bets episode, Simon and I
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: will narrow down our five picks for the favorites one
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest presented by
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. We will also get into the foxhole,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: give out our Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: discuss Simon's biggest bets are boosted, money line, Underdog Parlay,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: the underdog round Robin, and so much more. Bets are
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: rolling in lines, removing decisions need to be made. As
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: our volume podcast, Boss Colin Coward likes to say there's
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit ten dollars place
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: to bet for five dollars to get one hundred and
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: the moment, it's a never ordinary at bet three six
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Penncilvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply before we get to sharp calls. Another reminder,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: if you are participating in the Favorites Pick Them contest
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: this week, your picks must be in by one pm
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: on Saturday, not Sunday. We're including the Saturday games. That
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: means you must make your picks by one pm on Saturday.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Get those picks in by Saturday, not Sunday for week seventeen.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Good luck all right. Wise, guys always have an opinion
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: on what we're talking about, even over Christmas they don't rest,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: just another football week for them. Lines are moving based
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: on our conversations. We're going to hear what the sharps
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: have to say. Simon, let's do it. Sharp calls Hello,
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: who's there?
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: I'm talking rain rain down.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Somebody saying many.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: It's obviously I hit the book after our show on Tuesday,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: but I didn't go to any sports books yesterday. Did
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: go up to the runner's house yesterday either like it.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously there's too much going on. Let people
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: have some time off theither family. I'm not a total
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: cycle path, so this is a little be This will
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: be like a shorter version of it, just in the
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: sense of not that everyone scared off because all these
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: favorites have just been hitting, but like there's no confidence
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: behind these guys bets right now. Which is very interesting
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: because there's a couple of lines this week I really liked.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: I've stood out to me, and it doesn't seem like
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: everyone's jumping on the same boat with us. The ones
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: you nailed, Chad, especially on Sunday. A lot of pros
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: I've talked you really liked the rams. They liked that side.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: A lot of pros I've talked through really like the
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: Green Bay side, and we've seen that number at a
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: couple of books flip to this point, which I can't
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: lie to you. Chad's making me like Minnesota even more
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: because it's just like, yeah, people just have not believed
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: in them all season, Like this is this is not
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: that shocking and it's not a game. I'm rushing a
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: bet because I'm just hoping I get it too, Like
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: give give me a plus two on the Vikings at home,
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, that'd be a gift. A lot of
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: guys agree with. On the Panthers right, that number fell
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: too high. Shockingly, I saw a couple of books touch
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: eight and a half with it. Now a couple books
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: are back down at seven and a half, which again
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: for a minute, I was like, what am I missing here?
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: Like even that dog to me felt like a dog
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: mean you were gonna be on no matter what this week.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: I'm glad it's come down because it was scare me off.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: And then again we debated. I thought way more people
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: would be on New England. I don't think guys are
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: willing to put up that much big money on this
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: New England side, and it could just be because they
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: are so bad and dogs just aren't hitting like they
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: had they're used to right, Like, to me, this number
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: I thought would be down to three three and a
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: half come today, it's gone the other way, like it's
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: up to four and a half in a lot of books.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: So I think guys are just a little gun shy
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: and they're they're more heavy into taking these favorites. Especially
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: it's a good week for teasers, Like we already talked
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: about it. It's a week where you could take these
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: numbers down against bad teams that sure they might not
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: cut for this huge spread of eight, but they're gonna
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: cover two or three, Like they're gonna cover those those numbers.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: So yeah, for dogs that guys agree with us on.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: We're a land in Carolina and we talked about it.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: We both bet it Detroit got down to minus three.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: I know some smart money on the other side of it,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: But me and you talk about I think they're misreading
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Dan Campbell like he's talked about they're gonna go all
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: out and not sit and rest this game. I think
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: they're banking on them resting for this game. So yeah,
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: very very interesting game of or week. I should say,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: I'm just professionals taken favorites not so much the dog
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: so's it's finally going the other way. I think guys
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: are finally been beating down to this point chat of
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: just being like, man, it's just simpler to bet these
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: favorites right now, they're just you know what we talked
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: about right that the teams are more aggressive on going
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: for it on fourth downs and the shortened fields has
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: really helped these favorites. So it's a unique, unique season
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: that continues to favorite the favorites.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Well, guess what we're gonna kick it off right away,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: something we never do. We'll discuss. It's our big balls.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Better the Week presented by Tommy John. If you've got
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: with great underwear, and Tommy John makes the greatest right
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: off the bat. The LA Chargers. They're minus four and
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: a half right now at New England. This was a
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: history making conversation on Tuesday, and this is what a
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: weird year it is. It's the first time ever you
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: have not just warned me against an exact decision, you outright,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: you outright feet do it. But then in our chat
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: this morning, I feel like you're as beaten down as
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: I am on this, and I think yesterday even sort
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: of confirm that, and then getting this validation from the
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: professional betters. This is the first year we would ever
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: even think about making a road favorite, going cross country
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: in this spot against a massive trend, against the luck rankings,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: first time we would make them a big balls. But
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I will say, you know you said the numbers moved
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: from four to four and a half. I couldn't resist anymore,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: and I gave myself a little gift yesterday Christmas morning gift,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: and I betted it for a completely irrational splurge. We
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: may be off, but I don't know. I just love
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the Chargers here.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly I was. It was the same thing with Cleveland,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: where I was like, it's going to be cold in
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: the North. These teams coming from warm climates tend to
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: struggle late in December in these exact scenario, especially a
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: team like the Chargers play indoors. It's once again like
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: we already talk about it's coming in the fifties and rainy,
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: like the it's gonna be warm in a lot of
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: these North North games. And it honestly came down to
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: the coaching Chad, like I just I have more faith
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: in this Chargers team be prepared for this game, and
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: less faith in a New England team that basically felt
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: like that was their super Bowl last week against the
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Bills and all the bounces went their way for the
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: most part, and they still couldn't win that game. And
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: you know, the only really bad player I could think
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: of was the backward pass by Drake May. But it's
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: like not that we expected, but it's like he's a rookie.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: He's gonna make stupid little mistakes like that. And the
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: Chargers are a team that that's all they do. They
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: just wait for you to make a mistake. Once you
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: make it, the capitalize and then it's basically over. And
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: we've seen it this season, Like you know, we've I
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: feel like done pretty well knowing when to be on
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: the Charger and when to get off of them. And
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: I thought this was a spot to get off this
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Chargers team. But you know, the more I've talked to people,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: the more I've dove into it, it's like, all right,
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: Chad's right. I should have trusted my initial gut reaction
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: of the Stummer's too low, Like I said, my model
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: had this at six, So to me, they're still showing
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: value here. And you know, if we come in here
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: Sunday night and this is the game, we do lose,
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: and it's like we're kicking ourselves because we knew it
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: was a trap that would be brutal. But we talked
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: about this year has just been different. This isn't that
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: type of spot. Doesn't matter what the books need, doesn't
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: matter that it's a good home dog. This number just
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: feels too low to me on the side. So that's
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: why I do support taking the Chargers.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So we went through this on Tuesday too. You just
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: repeated almost verbatim what I put in my notes to
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: talk about today. As to ultimately why I liked this game.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I thought it had come down way too much because
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: of how the Pats played against the Bills. That was
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: a that was the exact we screwed that game up.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're screwing this game up. They came out.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Drake may won with his legs. He's been accurate. We
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: know that he's going to do that. But it's different
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: when the spread is fourteen and a half than when
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: it's four. And so many of these games this year
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: are coming down to the coaching decisions, Harbaugh always makes
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the right one. He's a football savant. The way he
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: played the end of that first half against the Broncos,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: that's what swung the game right, calling the time out,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: making them kick it, getting the penalty, like those things
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: can only line up if he's thinking about strategically, how
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: am I going to manage every second of this game?
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: And he just does that better than Girod Mayo. I'm
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: not saying Mayo won't do it one day. He might.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: He might, like he had a good call with that
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: fake punt last week against the Bills, right like why
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: not be more aggressive, have a good time. But he's
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: not the strategist that Jim Harbaugh is yet. And so
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: that's what it came down to for me when I
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: kept looking at him like this just it doesn't make sense,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: and we've been proven right and moved back up this morning.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know about I don't know about Mayo though,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: because I also honestly I've heard so many whispers about
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: the Veriabal story line him coming back that we don't
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: know what the are in that locker room right now either,
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: So it could all just be very negative for New England.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: And maybe that's the part we're missing that this Chargers
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: seem just going to roll this team in this week.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Well we hope so, because it's our big balls bet
• 15:11
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  Speaker 1: com slash favorites. Denver Broncos visiting the Cincinnati Bengals.
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: Pro Football's two superpowers renew their classic rival.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: I can't quit this one. It was like another one
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: that was in consideration for big balls. It's another one
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: sort of that I gifted myself on Christmas Day when
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: it moved to three and a half, I took it
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: at three and a half. It's since moved back down
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: to three. What are your thoughts here?
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: I feel supportive of it just because of the sentiety defense.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: We talked about it on Tuesday, a little bit of
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: just I don't think they're good enough to be giving
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: up a hook to a team like Denver that can
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: move the ball offensively, and even when Bonnicks makes stupid
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: turnovers and mistakes, it doesn't slow him down. He just
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: comes back and keeps slinging it, and Trumpayne kind of
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: has that trust in him that he'll keep letting them
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: push the ball downfield. And defensively, I feel like that's
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: an edge for this Denver team that actually have a
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: good defense that can rush the passer. And you know,
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: obviously Joe Burrow have an incredible season, but how many
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: times we've seen him kind of shoot himself on the
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: foot at some point of the game. It's not not
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: his fault, it's just so much put on his shoulder.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: And to me, that's why this game feels like I'll
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: be close. And I know Denver doesn't need this one, right,
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: it's they need to win one of the next two.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Obviously they want to win this one. But you know,
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: that number, to me at three and a half is
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: just so tempting. I can't really pass on it. So
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: it's another game where it's like hard to like dogs
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: this week, but at this number against the Cincinnati defense,
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: it feels like a good opportunity. And yeah, matchup wise,
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: like really going through all the numbers are breaking it
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: down how this defensive line of Denver can match up
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: against the offensive line of the Bengals. It's really going
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: to work out for him, just because Joe Burrow, honestly,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: he is one of the quarterbacks that does hold onto
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: the ball like he does take sacks the other guys
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: don't because he likes to push it downfield. It's too
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Joe Is. I think we're kind of starting to figure
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: that out where. You know, for a while there, we'd
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: always blame his offensive line. Is the years have gone
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: along here, it's like, well a lot of these are
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: self inflicted wounds by Joe, Like he's just not taking
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: the first open read. He wants to kind of test
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: the limits and push it downfield. So it's all about
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: the number here, Like you just said, it's shifting down
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: to three to a lot of books. So at three
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: and a half, especially contest wise, I would play it.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: But if it was two and a half, would even
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: think about playing it. It's just it's all about getting
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: that hooked to me, because I do think the Bengals
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: will win it, but by more than a field goal
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: feels like a stretch.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I think I agree with everything you're saying. You know,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: when we talked about this on Tuesday, I liked it
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: because we've got a pass rush that can dominate the Bengals,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: especially if Mimes and Brown are out. They were limited
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: participants on Tuesday. Haven't seen any updates, you know, Today
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: is sort of the key. But we saw what Cleveland
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: did against this Bengals team. They were all over the
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Bengals backfield. They made Joe Burrow look better because he
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: had no choice but to look good when he's being
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: rushed constantly. They had four sacks. They were in his grill.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: This brown this Broncos team is better in coverage than
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: the Browns. They've got just as good a pass rush,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: and they've got an offense. Like the only reason the
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Bengals covered that game is because they were playing Dorian
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Thompson Robinson. So I stole this from Rayba on the
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Action Network pod Bo nicks against bad defenses like below,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of the league across a variety of metrics,
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: seven or zero straight up and against the spread, twenty
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: nine points per game, thirteen touchdowns, two picks. Damn that
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: makes you, I knew you like that. That makes you
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: feel better about it, right, you know? So yeah, and
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: like also, here's the biggest news to me. We've seen
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: this Broncos defense struggle the past few weeks against the
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Browns and then the Chargers when Roley Moss was out
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: of the game, their cornerback. He was a full participant
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: in Tuesday. I would expect he's playing this weekend. So
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: it's more of the reason all the more reason to
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: like it. The one thing I would say about the
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: two and a half, and maybe Evan can help illuminate
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: this over the next few minutes and we'll come to
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: him in his segment. I think the two to two
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: and a half you're winning just as often as the
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: three to three and a half this season, so it's
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: something something to think about. Big Pros Joe's game. Pros
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: had been all over the Broncos in this game. I
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: put in Arizona at the Rams, even though it's at
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: six and a half. We're not going to play this one.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: I think the number has moved so much, but I
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: want to keep it in because we discussed it so
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: much on Sunday and so much on Tuesday. I don't
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: want people to think we forgot about it, and then
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: you may in sharp calls like it got up to
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: seven yesterday before it came back down to six and
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: a half. Do you feel strongly about this game at
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: six and a half, that's what it'll be in the contest.
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: I do like the Rams, but I do have other
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: favorites I like more just because of what we talked about.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: I feel like the numbers move so much, you know,
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: Connors might give it a go, like that's a big
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: deal for Theirs. And I mean, I know that was
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: a two offensive linement they put on the IR they
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: lost after last week, I'd have to go back and look.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: But I think so, you know, if they're losing two
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: offensive linement and they're number one running back, how do
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: we not love the Rams? Like, I know that they
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: don't have the greatest defense, but given that level where
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: it's all on Kyler, that tends to be the worst
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: spot you can be in if you're Arizona. Just Kyler
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: seems like he has not live up to the moment
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: this season and the fact that this Cardinals team, we
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: could say the best game of Kyler's career or I
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: guess just the season was against this Rams team earlier
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: this year when Rams were all banged up. You know,
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: they know that and they've been waiting for this opportunity,
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: and you know, iceing on the cake is like they
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: win this, they win the division, so they get a
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: mini bye week next week. That's a big deal. So yeah,
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: I love the Rams, But my worry chat is just
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: the numbers move too much. So I agree with you
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: on that.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: All right, So well, it's kind of a back burner game.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: I just didn't want to leave it out. The next game,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders at the New Orleans Saints, I'm falling
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: more and more in love with this as the Saints.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: I don't tell you, but doesn't this feel like the
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: game where you one hundred percent go in on the Saints?
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: They just got blown out. The Raiders won in a
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: game that they clearly should have lost. Like, why isn't
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: this game coming up more? This is a game in
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: years past we would not be hesitating. Zero hesitation.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: I agree with you about betting the number, but it's
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: a game I have zero confidence. And because I have
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: no read on how Spencer Rautler is going to do
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: and how he's gonna be able to move the ball
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: and the flip side, I do kind of have a
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: feeling how Vegas can move the ball. We've talked about
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: they still have some of their studs offensively that they
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: can move the ball and get it to and I
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: know the Saints were unlucky last week. There were times
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: where Spencer took off with the ball and you're like,
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: that's the key to this offense. If you just run
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: the ball, brother, Like you can open up the offense
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: in so many ways, but eventually he went away from it,
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: and again they just they're the only team this season.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: I believe they got shut out this year, like they're
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: the first team they not score a single point in
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: the game this year. So I agree with you. Would
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: love to be on the same shot. I would love
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: to feel confident about it, but I just have a
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: hard time putting my money on this team right now.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: I just have zero faith in the Saints' offense this season.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Just going back to the Broncos and Bengals for a second,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: teams that well, Actually, Ivan, I'll ask you to explain this.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I'm quite sure. I understand the minus
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: one and a half, minus two, minus two and a half.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: He's got the records against the spread at each number.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: So I guess we'll talk. Let's talk about a little
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: bit in the segment when you come on, and we'll
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: we'll unpack it a little bit. I mean, that's fair.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Going back to the Raiders and Saints for a second,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: it just feels like you bet the number, like we're
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: you buy low, you sell high. The Raiders benefited from
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: multiple Jags turnovers. The Saints had the JV against the
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Packers at prime time, against the team I think is
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: better than Minnesota, Like the offense is not any better
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: this week, but should they be dogs and then teams
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: off a blowout like the Saints sixty five percent against
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: spread the past twenty years, and it happens more often
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: than you think, Like we're talking close to one hundred games,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. It just feels like if we
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: had more confidence and we hadn't been getting just hammered
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: on quirky favorites this year, we wouldn't be hesitating, we'd
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: be pulling the trigger and we'd be proud of it.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't just because there's just other better dogs
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: this week. It's like there's a couple there's a couple
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: of games right on and then where I have a
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: game that we've bet on that I have to have
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: watch closely. I'm just like, God, damn you, Chad, that's
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: what you feel like you're trying to do to me
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: right now. It's like, I don't want to be watching
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: this game. I don't have big money on this game.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: So yeah, you're right, it's probably the right spot. It's
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: another game, right I'd rather just throw in a teaser.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Give me seven and a half. That's a nice big
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: number for this Saints team, and that'll be my bet
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: for this. I just have zero interest to bet this
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: one straight.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: For the record, I gave myself a lot of Prihnica
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Christmas Day gifts in the form of bets like the Ravens,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Texans under fifty one and a half, Live the Charge
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: minus four, the Broncos plus three and a half. As
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: confident as I am talking about the Saints, I did
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: not give myself a Christmas gift of the Saints at
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: plus one. Yet I'm just saying I did get Carolina
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: at plus eight and a half against Tampa Bay and
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: it's now at eight. This was my exact decision. Panthers
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: started the year one and seven against the spread. It
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: burned all of us. They're three and four since then.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: I think we've been on them all three times that
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: they've won. We're going back to the well again. Like
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's a question here. The market just
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: has not adjusted enough. We talked about sort of the
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: spread differentials from the last time these two played. It's
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: only a point and a half difference going back to Tampa.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: But come on, let's go Panthers.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's another game that you know, probably should just
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: take the over because it's going to be a game
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: that the Bucks are gonna be able to move the
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: ball anytime they want with Bucky Irving, with what they
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: have on the outside, with you know, Baker tends to
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: bounce back in these spots. Still been on move the ball.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: But just even rewatching that game against the Cowboys as
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: well as Cooper Rush played, they just had guys open
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: all over the field. Like it just seems like this
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: Tampa secondary cannot keep up with opposing offenses right now.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: And like we've talked about it, this the comfort level
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: of Carolina with Bryce Young right now is an all
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: time high, Like they are just so in sync between
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: the play calling, even Adam feeling like, you know, this
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: guy basically was sent to Carolina to die two years ago,
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: and he's just such a stud, especially his trust level
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: with Bryce Young, Like when he needs to on third
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: down and a really tight window, that's who he's looking for.
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you, like I love this Panthers team.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: My only fear is just that I'm so in love
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: with it, Like this is another game where I took
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: their money line again, Like, I just love this matchup
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: for this team and the fact that it's still seven
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: and a half and above since like way, like you
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: just said, way too much respect to a Bucks team
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: that we agree is good that they're gonna be able
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: to score and move the ball. But we know that
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: the opening of this back door is going to be there.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: Even if we're down twenty one or seventeen the first half,
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: this bet will still not be dead, Like We're still
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: gonna be alive. So I love the de Stummer is
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: still so big just because of what we talked about.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: Just obviously clear disrespect to this Tampa Bay team. I mean,
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: just at.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: Carolina Bryce Young two point zero. He's accurate, he's ballsy,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: he takes hits in the pocket, but he also gets
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: out of the pocket, uses his legs. He's been a
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: revelation and like to his credit, you know, there's only
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: two weeks left in the season, but Dave Canalis finally
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: did say he'll be our quarter for the rest of
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: the season. He had been avoiding saying that, purposely voting
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: saying that. But yeah, we love we're booking in the seasons.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: If they win these last two, we hit our over,
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: which would be an insane proposition if they can actually
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: do it.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: So, look, we were bookending the season. We love the
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Panthers at the beginning. We're loving the Panthers at the end.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: They're finally the team we thought they would be. Simon.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Kudos to us really for having nowherewithal to stick with
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: the team, not backing down, not being afraid going back in,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: even at the threat of a volt from our listeners,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: telling them what's good for them. That's what we do.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: Tennessee plus one at Jacksonville.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: This is another game.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: The Titans are now two and thirteen against spread, tied
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: for the worst records to start the season in the
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl era per our friend Evan. At this point,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: the only question is do you bet the regression or
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: do you pass? Like I was convinced on Tuesday, we
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: bet the regression a little bit less, so today I
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: don't feel as good about it.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just another game where you're exactly the right
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: a normal year, just like the Saints, this would be
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: an easy bet, easy spot. They made a QB change
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: and no world was Old Love was gonna put up
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: thirty points last week Like that really was about how
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: Mason Ruff is that much better as a quarterback for
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: this team. So that to me is the biggest difference.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: The professionals. We talked Sunday night. They came in heavy
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: on this one, right, it was two and a half two,
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: They hit it right away. Now she's sitting now, just
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: sitting at one, and most pros I talked to they've
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: hit this number. I feel like in the Action app
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: kind of backs that up. So yeah, it's it's the
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: professional side, Like you're right, that's who the pros are
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: going to be on Tennessee. It's again there's other dogs
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: I like better, Like do we really like this better
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: than Denver? Do we like this better than Atlanta? Do
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: we like it better than Carolina? No? I don't, Right,
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: So that's the spot we're in here where it's like
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: me and Chad usually love betting these noble nobody believes
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: us ugly dogs, but we're just hesitating because they just
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: like Tennessee's a great example, they have not been hitting
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: like they should. And there's another spot where the number
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: is good. We probably should take it, but I just
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: have no urge to put my money on this type
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: of team.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: What about teasing it? Like you get through three, you
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: get to seven, Like, do you tease it with the Saints?
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: If it was one and a half, I would right
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: now I'm looking at just one, so I wouldn't tease it.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: Just get into seven because obviously people know pushes. Pushes
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: are no good and teasers.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, uh yeah, I agree. Maybe on Sunday we play
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: it for a little bit as just a regular bet.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: It's not I don't think it's making the contest. We
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: still appeal people of foxhol exec decision was the Panthers
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: big balls as the Chargers. Simon says, was Atlanta, we
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Owa Foxhall. I'm a little worried we won't find one
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: because I know we're on the same side as the
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: wise guys, and a lot of these games coming up
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Dallas at Philadelphia eight and a half, it's come down,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: But this one makes still makes no sense to me.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: You know, we spoke about it on Tuesday and Sunday
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: night it was seven and a half. We were taking
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys. It got up to eight that night, so
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: we were taking seven and a half in eight, sort
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: of hedging against Jalen Hurts being out. Then the line
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: blew up. I got up to ten and a half
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday morning, and there was still no news about
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts. And now it's slowly been coming back down
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: ten nine and a half nine eight and a half.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Still no news about Jalen Hurts. Cannot find any news.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: You haven't heard anything. Fascinating subplot Simon.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: I did message someone that works with the egos and
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: they're in the note today and they basically just said
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: that they'll know more info after today's practice, which obviously,
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: as we're recording right now, that's not happened. The scary
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: thing is, right now Hurts has a concussion and Kenny
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: Pickett has ribs, and they basically signed Ian Book after
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: a practice squad. So right now it's Tanny McKee and
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Ian Books as their two quarterbacks. So if that's a scenario, yeah,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: obviously me and Chad will just sit in our cowboy
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: tickets and let that ride if that's what's coming this Sunday.
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: But yeah, if it's if we get any inkling of Hurts,
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: and I know the public, we'll know because they'll see
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: the line move just like we will. That's that's gonna
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: be the first way we know it's Hurts again. If
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: it does go right back up to ten, but right now,
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: like you just said, it's coming down because of so
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: much unknown. So I like the Eagles in the spot.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: This feels like a good spot for their defensive bounce
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: back at home. They match up really well against this
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: Cowboys team. Believe the first time they played Eagles one
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: thirty to eight or thirty two to eight, something like that.
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: And you know it's just a defense that they are
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: really good in press coverage of man and man. And
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: we've seen with CD. If you can have really athletic
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: young corners like the Eagles do, it's different than you
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: can utilize his speed, right and we saw last week
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: like a team like the Bucks, they have no one
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: liked that and that's why you can force feed a
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: guy like him. And on top of that, you know
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: more I read about it like CD's basically playing with
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: the banged up shoulder, and yeah, he reaggravated it last
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: week getting tackled on it finished the game, but you
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: could see that he.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Didn't play like he played like two plays in the
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: second half.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: He wasn't great. Fact, you could just see that he
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: was basically not that he Reinjos, I shouldn't say that
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: because we don't know, but you could see the discomfort
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: level have gone up such a level that he didn't
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: even want to be out there taking hits and they
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: kind of held him out. So yeah, we expect We
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: expected a letdown from the Cowboys after that huge emotional
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: win against that Bucks team, and he expected a bounce
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: back from an Egles team getting embarrassed and their defense
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: is getting chewed out all week by Fangio. But with
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: the unknown of like we just talked about the unknown
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: of Hurts, I can't confidently give this out to people
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: and listeners of the show. So yeah, it's it's a
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: game that I'm I want to be on the Eagles,
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: but I am hesitant to give it out right now
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: just because of all the information we don't have on Hurts.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we definitely worry about the Eagles bounce back on defense.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: We worry about Jalen all of a sudden being a
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: go on Sunday. We worry about Cooper Rush his Kryptonize alive.
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: It just moving minus seven and a half Eagles, so
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: it keeps dropping, which again that's not great if you
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: want to back the Eagles, but if you want to
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: grab Cowboys. Now, like we talked about, we've already done it.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: I mean I'd grabbed eight and a half just in case.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but if you have the eight and you're getting
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: nervous that Jalen Hurts is going to play and you
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: want to buy out of the eight and you don't
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: want to wait, you could also take the seven and
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: a half, right Like, then you're you're getting to buy
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: out of your bet. You know, maybe it'll go down,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: maybe you get the seven. Who knows, but it's an interesting,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: interesting scenario for everybody, very interesting. I also worry that
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys injuries in a lot of spots are going
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: to impact them more against a better team, and that
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: they just played their best game against the Bucks. They
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: had just found out they weren't in the playoffs. They clearly,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: like Mike McCarthy, they were going to go play hard
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: in prime time. They were hitting like it was a
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: conference title game. That adds up, especially the following week
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: when you've sort of come down emotionally a little bit.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked too though. That Cowboys game was not
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: a perfect match for the Cowboys. It really was like
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: everything they do well offensively, Buck struggled with and then defensively,
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: we talked about like their second team, the secondary has
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: really good hands on the Cowboys, and like that affected Baker,
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: like those windows just weren't there for him. So yeah,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: I'm just shocked. As we're doing this live, the number
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: moved down even more like the Eagles hadn't your practice yet.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: So this is clearly professionals trying to get ahead of
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: it getting on that Cowboys side.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have to run through this again and choose
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: a foxhil. It might have to be New Orleans. That's
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: kind of what's in my head right now, because because
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the rest of the games. Green Bay
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: at Minnesota, this is a huge move.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: I thought we were gonna do. I honestly think we
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: should just do Detroit for Foxhoul.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: I would do Detroit. I love it. I just don't
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: know are we in.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: The fi maybe fucking bet the Saints, Chad, Please, for
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: the love of God, are.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: We in the foxhole? Though? We'll get to it. We'll
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: get to it. Green Bay at Minnesota. I love Green Bay,
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: you love Minnesota. The wise guys are with me. Yeah,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: the wise guy I move numbers, the line is moved.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: They're also with you on the Steelers. That didn't work
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: out too well for them.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: I didn't bet the Steelers.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: You didn't bet the Chiefs, though I.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: Didn't bet the Chiefs. I didn't bet the Steelers. I
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: didn't do the side.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: You're on the Steelers. You don't see how that works.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: No, because I was on the total. I lost either way,
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: but I was on the total.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: You were on the Steelers.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: I was a wishy, washing non opinion.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: I told you it was my biggest bet and you
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: didn't even touch it. You were just like, I want
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: nothing to do with.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: It, So I want nothing to do with it.
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: Beat on the Steelers.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: I was wrong. Don't take it personally. I was wrong.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: You were right. You made a lot of money on
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: the game. I lost because I was on total.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: But that's a game. The pros were heavy, especially when
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: the Chris Johnson news came out. They were heavy on
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: the Steelers, and I just I don't know, I get
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: where people come from this Packers team, but especially now.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: I told you, now the numbers move even more, like
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: I'm getting a plus number on the Vikings.
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I was gonna say, like the number is
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: moved from Packers plus one and a half to now
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: minus one, and it's been moving aggressively over the last
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: forty eight hours. I did bet the Packers' money line
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: on Christmas Day. They were still slight dogs at the time.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: I guess might take if we're talking about like comps, right,
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: why why do I like the Packers more than the Vikings.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: Why would I feel more comfortable betting the Packers than
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: I would say the Steelers. I just think the Packers
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: are a really physical team, and we know their identity
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: is run the ball with Josh Jacobs, limit turnovers, control
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: the clock, Jordan Love makes the throws at the right
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: time in the right situation, And I feel like Minnesota
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: you're saying, I feel like Minnesota consistently is getting lucky
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: and lives and dies by Sam Darnold being able to
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: evade in the pocket and then throw over the top
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: of coverage that is breaking down, or Kevin O'Connell puts
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: him in a great spot and he can throw a
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: rope across the field from the opposite hash on like
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: second to twelve after another holding penalty or ineligible player
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: downfield and sort of keep the chains moving. But that
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: isn't sustainable to me. And then you look at their
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: wins during their win streak. Close games that just as
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: easily could have been lost is against the Bears, the Cardinals, Seattle,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: and then they were tied with Atlanta in the f
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: quarter before Atlanta's turnovers completely put them out of the game.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: To me, green Bay has dominated in their past five games,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: no close games to inferior competition and a one field
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: goal that's not in the past five games.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: Oh okay, okay, you got me there, You got me there.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Their one loss is a field goal to Detroit.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't know.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: I just feel better about you know, you can see
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: teams getting better. I don't think Minnesota is necessarily getting better.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: I think they've played to the best of their ability
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: and had things go well their way.
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: Can't refute any of that we've talked about. I think
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: they've been really lucky. But I also think that they
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: have the coach of the year and you know, a
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: quarterback that is living up to the moment. Like I told,
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: we talked about like as much as most said they've
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: been lucky, he's making big time throws and really really
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: intense tight situations down here. Like you said, they've been
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: playing all season above their talent level. They have a
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: nameless defense, they have Sam Darnold as their quarterback, and
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: they are whatever thirteen in two at this point. So
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: my whole issue is that they are a team that
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: when it's tight, they have one of the best teams
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: in all football. And on the flip side with Green Bay, again,
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: nothing against Jordan Love, but when he's played against good teams,
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: he's not been great in those type moments. And they
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: have not played that many great teams this year, right,
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: Like you just went through their whole schedule other than Detroit,
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: They've had a cake walk these last couple of weeks.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: Like this, to me is a true test for their defense,
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: which I don't think is that good. Even coming to
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: the year I said, I don't care they made a
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: coaching change to their defense. I don't think they had
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: have the right pieces to it. So we're not doing
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: the Saints. It's please stop trying to do the Saints. Yeah,
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: I just look at this as it's just a Green
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: Bay team that the public is gonna love, everyone's all
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: into and I'm just I'm kind of dug in here
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: on the disrespect for this Vikings team, And like the
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: number that now the numbers flipped, it's making even more confident.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: It's like even even the public and now it feels
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: like it on with the professionals on the screen Bay side,
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: just a ton of love for this team that you know,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: I just don't think they they have been tested, right,
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: they were testing that Detroit game. But even at Detroit game,
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: they should have won that right then, we both agree
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: on that that they were felt like the better team
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: against Detroit, but they just were not clutch at the
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: end of the game, like they gave away the game.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: It kind of gave the opportunity to Detroit to win that.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: So that to meet you id just my fear here
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: is that Minnesota, when it's close to the end, they're
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: going to steal this one.
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: You know, I think that these will be two good
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: games for Scoots Roulette. I can't wait to be on
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: the opposite sides of it. We haven't had a we
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: haven't had a Oh that's a good one.
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: Do that. Yeah, it's fun.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we haven't had a game where we are head
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: to head all season. I think on Christmas, you're on
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: the Steelers guy, Come on, I was heartbroken.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: I hope brought my action app Look Christmas morning, See
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: if Chad was me back? I mean nope, No, it
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: wasn't there. No support.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: I couldn't get there. But because I'm too afraid of
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: my time.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: I was there for you on the Bills last week.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: You couldn't be there for him the Chiefs this week.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: I've been there with you on so many things. We
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: got there with it. How many times have we bet
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: the fucking Jets this year?
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: So we love it.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: We love it so many times. But we haven't been
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: head to head on a game happening normally. What's been
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: happening is like one of us will have an opinion
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: and the other one will have a strong opinion and
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: we will put that game. That's one of ours. This year,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: we are head to head on Minnesota and Green Bay.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: I like it. Like it a lot, Atlanta, Washington, this
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: was your Simon says three factors. Can you remind people
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: what your three factors were?
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: I cannot.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: You like what you saw from Penix makes sense. We
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: like fading the commanders off miracle Win. Oh yeah, we
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: don't think Washington's defense is very good.
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: I agree with all that. So yeah, Simon on Tuesday
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: was spot on. But I also just think, like the
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: more I broke down the film on Penix, that I
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: had underrated him a little.
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: Bit, right.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: I think I was a little too negative on him
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: on the Sunday Show, and you were ahead of it, right,
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: I think you said take it. Whatever it was was
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: a five or five and a half Atlanta when it opened. Yeah, yeah,
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: way too much respect for this Washington team. And only
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: my only real hesitation was, well, it is a rookie
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: and a second start going on the road, playing in
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: a primetime game like that is a tough spot to
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: be in. But as you quickly mentioned to me, this
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: is not your regular rookie. This is a guy who's
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: been played a lot of years in college, played in
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: some really big games in college football, and has lived
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: up to those moments in college. So that does translate
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: to the NFL. Like we've seen these quarterbacks who have
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: played in big time games. I mean, the one that
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: really stood out to me was Joe Burrow, right, like
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: he had all the hype in the world coming to LSU,
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: and you saw immediately this guy had the confidence because
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: he had played in such big time games. So this
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: one another one that's just all about the number, right,
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: and another game where I swore this would be three
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: today just because I did think that the professionals coming
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: heavy on this one. It's not there, Like there's still
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: some four and a halfs popping out there that you
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: can still get. So yeah, not a slam dunk I
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: thought it was gonna be. But yeah, I love this matchup,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: love this number for this team, and just feels like
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: a game that they could steal and win outright, Like
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: it's a washing team that's just going to be inflated,
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: like we talked about after last week, and I still
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: think the number is just way too high, Like you're
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: still getting a great value on this number with this team.
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: And the achilles heel for that Falcons team was they
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: had no pass rush. They've kind of had to turn
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: around the later half of the season, right, They've gotten
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: better again after the quarterback, whether that scheme or just
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: kind of figuring out the rhythm between the defenders because
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: it was a new D line, right and they kind
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: of had to figure out to play play with each other.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is Atlanta team. It might be a
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: spark they needed, right, that QB change that could be
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: something they needed now the books haven't caught up to
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: it because they don't want to adjust to this new
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: new quarterback situation. So yeah, I like it. I think
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: we're getting ahead of it. I think we're beating the
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: book here on this one.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I like it too. And if we can still
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: get to four and a half in the contest, I
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: love it. The thing is, we're not going to get
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: three and a half. We haven't looked at the contest
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: lines yet. It hasn't gone below four. So we're gonna
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: get to four and a half. Last game of the week,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: Detroit visiting San Francisco, We're going into the foxhole. This
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: is gonna be it, you know me, regardless of what's
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: going on.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: Detroit got down to three yesterday. I betted at three.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming you bettered at three.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: My last Christmas Day gift, it was the last thing
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: in my stocking. It's gone back up to three and
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: a half. It's probably what the contest line is going
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: to be. I guess I don't care that much.
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: I'm so freaking proudy man. That's a way to show up.
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: You're talking about pressure, living pressure. That's what we freaking thrive.
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: You did it again, you win.
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: Detroit wants to go in and dominate, and I think
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is trying to figure out what they're going
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: to do next year.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I told you. It was all really to me
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: about what Dan Campbell was gonna say. And if he
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: came out and was honest and said, yeah, we're gonna
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: rest guys, I would probably agree with the professionals who
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: are betting this forty nine ers team and be like, Okay,
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: now I get why they're hammering this forty nine Ers side.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: It went the other way. Campbell is basically saying like, no,
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: we're not that type of team. I'm having everyone play.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: We plan on going up there and dominating and winning
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: in San Francisco.
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: So we're road warriors, all right, We're in rare air
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: right now. All right, we were all supposed to be
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: here together. Man, we're testing for this, just staying the dwars.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: This forty nine ers team still feels like they're getting
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: respect from the books from last year and every week,
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: even last week, right they were. I think they opened
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: as a two and a half point dog and they
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: closed as a one and a half point favorite.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: So it makes no sense.
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's been like that all year that that people, mainly.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: The Jets, them in the Jets the whole freaking season.
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's true, though, they just can't help themselves. And
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: that was very glaring, Like you just said, the fact
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: that this got down to three, like that's some really
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: really smart money moving that to three like that. Again,
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: we talk all the time. It's not that they hit
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: every book. They might hit one or two books, and
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: every book follows off of that movement. That's how respected
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: that money was that came in. As soon as that
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: Dan Campbell interview happened, it went right back up. So
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: I think the books don't know what to do with it.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: They're they're they're they're kind of in between. And you know,
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: obviously three was a gift. I'm glad we both got it.
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: But as long as this is below six, I think
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: we're getting a great number. Like That's why, again, I
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: don't know what I'm missing here. I have this at
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: such a higher game because the only fear with the
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: tra erright now is going up against good offenses that
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: can move the ball on them. Right, That's the fear
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: is they could they can be back toward by teams
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: now because of the struggling defense they have. But this
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: ain't that, Like, this is not that type of matchup.
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: And you know we've seen golf. We always joked about
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: him outdoors. That hasn't matter yet this year this season either,
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: like they've been so dominant because of that run game
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: that sets up everything through the pass game. That yeah,
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: like Gibbs, this matchup for him is great. They have
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: I don't want to say Fred Warner slow, but he's
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: got He's been playing with major injuries and we've seen
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: their linebackers have struggled getting on the outside. That's what
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: they want to do with Gibbs, Like that's just such,
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: that's literally what they want to do with him setting
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: up and especially signing up the pass. So uh, yeah,
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: this this is another game just like last week. I'm
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: hoping we don't scare it off of because you know
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: we talked about last week aainst the Bears. It was
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: basically ninety five percent of the tickets, ninety five percent
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: of the money was on this this team and the Lions,
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: and it went from seven to six and a half
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: so we were like, what's going on here? I mean
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: they won by what double digits? So I feel like
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: it's the same thing here. They're trying to scare us off.
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: At Chad, we're in the foxhole. We will not be scared.
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right now we're eighty seven percent of the tickets,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of money on the Lions. Yeah, I
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: will not be afraid. This is the year we've been
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: seeing it. There's a couple games that we like that
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: our road favorites. We're gonna have to decide are they
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: both gonna make it in We're talking about the charters
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: and the niners. You know, right now, I think they do.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: If we're looking at the list, if we're taking one
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: of them out, it's going to be probably be for
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: the Saints. So it's a very good chance that we
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: end up with two road favorites in the contest. It's
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: kind of year it's been. Yeah, how to make adjustments
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: even if it's in week seventeen. Simon, can you name
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  Speaker 1: Game Time? Each week we give out a two team
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  Speaker 1: money line underdog parlay I bet three six y five
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  Speaker 1: So if you want to bet this, bet it at
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: bet three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay after a
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: spirited debate in the chat during the show, which is
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: what you might have heard when Simon said, no, we
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: can't do the Saints. We're going with Carolina as an
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: eight eight and a half point dog in Atlanta. All
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: NFC South boosted parlay. Find the boost under either the
• 52:36
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• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Okay our money line underdog Round Robin.
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: There will come up Heayday, hallelu yo, wanna pay day?
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: There will come up.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: Payday some day.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Some day there will come up Heayday.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Halla lou yo, wanna payday?
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: I will come up.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: Pay day some Denver, Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota. I know you
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: want to put Minnesota in there.
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: I do New Orleans? Do you want to go New Orleans?
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: Or should we go upside? I mean it pains me
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: to say this should we go upside of Dallas in
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: case Hurts is out and you know they're might be
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: playing Iam booked like this is. I'm just trying to
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: try to find big value. Here is some good big dogs.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: Whatever you want to do, so, I mean, you clearly
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: don't want to do you clearly don't want to do
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: New Orleans.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: I mean they're plus one hundred Dallas is plus two seventy.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I get that, but we don't like New Orleans.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: We know that there's not going to be anywhere in
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: the field, so we know what we're getting into. It's
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: like that scene in Airplane, you know a movie that
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: only people in my age remember, where there's like a
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: debate between two newscasters and he's like Shane, I they
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: bought their ticket, they knew what they were getting into.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: I say, let them crash. That's kind of what we're
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: doing when we bet on New Orleans.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: All right, we could do the Orleans and you love it. Yeah,
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: give one the chat.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, g e A u X go Saints, let's do it.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: Who are your biggest bets right now? Buddy?
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: Uh? I mean, honestly, I've been I've been pretty lacking
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: just because of the holiday I would say Detroit. I
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: went pretty heavy on the minus three. Even at minus
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: three and a half, I've honestly betted up. I'm feeling
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: very chalky with that one. Panthers, as you know, eight
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: eight and a half, whatever I could get my hands on,
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: I was betting that. Now that we're here, I feel
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: like I'm gonna be heavy on teachers this week. Like Eagles,
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: taking the Eagles down, taking Buffalo down, taking the Colts down.
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: I really like all those favorites just just to win
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: those games. And it just feels like that kind of
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: week hit that point. I mean, I haven't already talked
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: about it. Basically, dogs are only when to outright twenty
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: five percent, maybe even less right now since it was
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: like week eight or seven. So it's been brutal, brutal
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: if you're a dog better, But if you're someone who
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: loves doing teasers, they've been hitting like the chalk has
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: just been hitting. So not as heavy on the dogs
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: this week as I usually am. Been leading more towards
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: the favorites in Week seventeen.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: All right, before we get to evan reminder, if you're
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: participating in the favorites, pick them contest your picks must
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: be in by one pm on Saturday, not Sunday. All
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: Saturday games are in the contest this week. Everybody must
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: make picks by one pm on Saturday. Get those picks
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: in one pm Saturday, not Sunday. For Week seventeen, we've
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: mentioned him so much, it's time to finally have him
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: on the show. Evan Abrams take us through it.
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 55:55
  Speaker 5: We're finished talking, well, chaed I'm still waiting to try
• 55:59
  Speaker 5: to fait you're out exactly what we were discussing earlier,
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: but I can give you some information.
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Basically, what I wanted to know was are dogs of
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: plus two or plus two and a half covering as
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: frequently this season as dogs of plus three or three
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: and a half, because that is becoming so much more
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: of a key number. And I want to know if
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: we're shooting ourselves in the foot by not considering games
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: that get to two and a half because we don't
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: want to play anything below three, and that might not
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: be the right answer anymore.
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: Got it.
• 56:33
  Speaker 5: I looked up the favorites part, so I'll just invert
• 56:35
  Speaker 5: it so it looks like teams to close plus two
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: and plus two and a half are sixteen and nineteen
• 56:43
  Speaker 5: against the spread. Times to close plus three and plus
• 56:47
  Speaker 5: three and a half. Here's some fun math, twenty five
• 56:52
  Speaker 5: thirty one and three against the spread.
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: Wow, so both are loser numbers.
• 56:59
  Speaker 5: Both are losing numbers right now. The biggest the thing
• 57:02
  Speaker 5: I thought was interesting, and I did it from a
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: favorites point of view, misunderstanding a little bit, but it
• 57:06
  Speaker 5: looks like a minus two for favorites. Minus three and
• 57:10
  Speaker 5: minus three and a half have been above five hundred.
• 57:12
  Speaker 5: The only number below five hundred has been minus two
• 57:15
  Speaker 5: and a half, which Simon seems to talk about all
• 57:17
  Speaker 5: the time. But it has been a loser from the
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: favorites point of view this year eleven and fourteen.
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: Wait, but you just said favorites.
• 57:24
  Speaker 5: So everything I gave you was underdogs, right.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: But if minus two and a half is a.
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: Minus two, went eight and two against the spread this year,
• 57:33
  Speaker 5: So teams to close minus two eight to two ats
• 57:37
  Speaker 5: minus two and a half eleven and fourteen, I.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Say, so you add them up. It's still two to
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: two and a half is a loser for the dogs.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: But two has been a winner.
• 57:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah, correct for obviously a small sample size in a
• 57:49
  Speaker 5: single season, so interesting.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, all right, let's.
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: Keep rolling here.
• 57:53
  Speaker 5: So picking your games this week to try to give
• 57:55
  Speaker 5: you a little bit of a boost some you know,
• 57:58
  Speaker 5: confidence was interesting looking at the scripts from Tuesday, but
• 58:01
  Speaker 5: I think I did alright here. So we're gonna start
• 58:03
  Speaker 5: with Denver. So you mentioned the great bon Nick stat
• 58:06
  Speaker 5: earlier that Raybond gave you. I got one more for you.
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: So Cincinnati's defense are sacking opponent qbs about two point
• 58:13
  Speaker 5: eight percent, which is bottom third of the league this year.
• 58:16
  Speaker 5: Bon Nicks eight to no ats versus defenses with an
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: opposing SAP percentage of four percent or less. He is
• 58:23
  Speaker 5: two and four ats with a number above that four
• 58:26
  Speaker 5: percent with a little more pressure.
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: So great.
• 58:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it just rolls exactly into it.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: I thought, I thought that was perfect. So that worked
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: out well, That worked out well.
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: Dimond's leaning in. He feels so good about that.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: I honestly hammer Denver.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we need we need to bet on a dog,
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: all right.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: This one was a little bit more tough.
• 58:49
  Speaker 5: So you like the Saints this week. I looked up
• 58:51
  Speaker 5: the stat and then I'll throw two trends at you,
• 58:53
  Speaker 5: which kind of.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Fall right in line.
• 58:55
  Speaker 5: But you asked if like the Raiders should be favorites
• 58:58
  Speaker 5: in this game as kind of like a question, here's
• 59:00
  Speaker 5: a great one. So the Raiders are coming off a
• 59:02
  Speaker 5: game where they are where they broke a ten game
• 59:05
  Speaker 5: straight up losing streak. They would be the first team
• 59:07
  Speaker 5: since December of nineteen sixty eight to be favored in
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: a game after breaking a ten plus game straight up
• 59:14
  Speaker 5: losing streak within the same season. So in this situation,
• 59:17
  Speaker 5: when the team out of nowhere wins a game shockingly,
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: they usually just fall back to where they are. They
• 59:22
  Speaker 5: don't end up as a road favorite in this situation,
• 59:25
  Speaker 5: which is exactly what the Raiders are sitting in. So
• 59:27
  Speaker 5: maybe the line is wrong. And then you've kind of
• 59:30
  Speaker 5: mentioned this before. So teams after getting shut out thirty
• 59:33
  Speaker 5: and fifteen against the spread a sixty seven percent last decade,
• 59:36
  Speaker 5: and then teams with a win percentage below forty percent
• 59:38
  Speaker 5: who just lost by thirty plus ninety and sixty six
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: fifty eight percent since two thousand and three. So yeah,
• 59:44
  Speaker 5: like the.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: Saints are the right historical side here.
• 59:48
  Speaker 5: You're just picking two garbage cans, you know, flying down
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: the river and hoping that one of them goes faster
• 59:53
  Speaker 5: than the other, uh okay, last one, Bryce Young, I
• 59:58
  Speaker 5: looked into this because I think we all kind of
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 5: believe what you guys have been preaching. So here's his improvement.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 5: So he's been using his legs lately in his first
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 5: three starts, and remember Owen three ats and that eight
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 5: scrambles thirty four yards Week nine on, which has been
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 5: this hot streak for him, twenty two scrambles, one hundred
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 5: and ninety yards and three touchdowns. He's also been much
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 5: more accurate, especially downfield. So his first three starts he
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 5: had a negative completion percentage over expected. Now that is
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 5: based off depth of throw, which is how the stack
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 5: gets correlated. That was second worst in the NFL in
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 5: the first eight weeks. Week nine on, he's now top
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 5: of the league in that stat, to the top half
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 5: of the league in that stat. And then finally, his
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 5: catchable ball percentage, which just gives the offense more of
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 5: a chance, is up almost five full percentage points and
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 5: his turnover worthy throws down two point six percent between
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 5: those two periods. So, honestly, Bryce Young playing better and
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 5: it's showing up in the stats because Carolina now six
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 5: to one ATS in the last seven games. Best Moor
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 5: in the NFL over that span, and they started the
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 5: year zero and three ats. So sometimes quarterback play doesn't
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: exactly show up in the results. It's front and center here, guys.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: You know who else has a high catchable ball percentage?
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: Tommy John Simon. I'm feeling better and better. I can't
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: wait to put the Saints in our top five. As
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
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• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: with our next step, So do the favorites. On the
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  Speaker 1: Action Network you two page Sunday night, seven thirty pm
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: Eastern to recap week seventeen. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,
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• 1:02:13
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