Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 114 - 9/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 114 - 9/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello, and welcome to episode 114 of the All Systems Go sports
0:23
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:26
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Sunday. Typically you don't hear me
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doing podcasts on Sunday. We're typically Monday to
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Friday. But guess what?
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When the NFL season returns, we put out Sunday podcast.
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So I'm very excited for our first Sunday All systems Go pod
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powered by rhythm to come out for today because it's week one.
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We had a jam packed slate, 13 games overall.
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It's my favorite day of the week.
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It's my favorite time of the year and we have a lot of great
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system matches here to talk about.
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So I have a six pack of sweats for you all NFL from now on, all
1:05
Sunday pods, all NFL. But then I also have a handful
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of prop bets. So we have some player props
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with some massive discrepancies here between what the betting
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market is offering and what our friends at Rhythm are predicting
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with their AI backed models. So we're going to talk game
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bets, we're going to talk player props, and we're going to have
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hopefully a great Sunday here to start our NFL season.
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Now, before we dive right in, I wanted to mention one thing
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right off the bat. Number one, we are doing a live
1:30
stream. So if you enjoy this pod and you
1:32
want to get a full breakdown, we're going to do a Twitter live
1:35
stream powered by Rhythm. It's myself and my buddy James
1:38
Santor, who works for Rhythm and does a great job for Rhythm.
1:41
So this is a great opportunity for you guys.
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It'll be a Twitter live stream from 11:00 AM Eastern Time up
1:47
until noon, but just log on to Twitter.
1:49
You'll see the the live feed there.
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You can click the profile picture of me or rhythm and get
1:54
right into it. It's pretty easy.
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We're going to be breaking down all the games, looking at the
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rhythm models, the edges. I'll give you my takes, I'll
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give you my bets. Maybe there's some late moves,
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some bets that we'll add to our card and we'll talk a lot of
2:05
prop bets as well. So I hope to see you guys for
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our first Twitter live stream. I guess it's called X live
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stream now, but the Twitter live stream Sunday sweats powered by
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rhythm again, 11:00 AM. Eastern Time to 12 today.
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Hope to see you guys there Now before we dive right in a quick
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comment. Hope you had a good Saturday.
2:24
Couple great hits in college football.
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Iowa State number one contrarian play of the week.
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Only 15% bets. Love to see a walk off kick
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there to win it for Iowa State. Straight up Tulane and the
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points came through with some RLM.
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Illinois was a late addition for me.
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I took Michigan who was pretty much terrible.
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Didn't cover the number, but overall couple good hits there
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on Saturday. But nothing was bigger than our
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UFC biting system match that came through our buddy Sean
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Brady. Whether it's Tom Brady or Sean
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Brady does not matter, but Sean Brady ran our winning streak to
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12 straight and boy was that a bet.
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Split line move for the ages. Remember low bets, higher
3:02
dollars, sharp line move, younger, taller, longer reach.
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We had a seven-year youth advantage for Brady, but most
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importantly, he was only getting 19% of bets, but 67% of the
3:13
money and he moved from -165 to -190 So a great hit there if
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you're able to sweat Sean Brady and follow that pod play from
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Friday. I tweeted that out as well at
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Josh under score Insights. Without further ado, let's flip
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the page. It's a big Sunday.
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Let's try to make some money on the NFL slate for today.
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So first bet on the board for me.
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Let's go to a matchup we've been talking about all week, Carolina
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Panthers and the New Orleans Saints.
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Now going into this one, I just want to mention a couple systems
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and then I'll give you obviously the bets here.
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But number one, week 1, it's a great time to bet dogs.
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Even though we see we've seen dogs go O and two ATS.
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Obviously to start small sample size with both the Chiefs
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covering as a favorite and Philly covering as a favorite.
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But week one dogs historically are really good, 57% against the
4:00
spread since 2016. We love Rd. dogs in week 161%
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ATS divisional dog, 68% ATS dog who missed the postseason the
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previous year, 58% against the spread.
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So I'll be leaning on quite a few dogs, but also have a fade
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the trendy dog play for you as well.
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So Carolina Panthers, I'm taking the points here guys, shop
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around, try to get the plus 4. Some shops are down to 3 1/2.
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We open this game, Saints -5 I got all the way down quickly to
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Saints -5 down to -4 and what I love is consistent movement with
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no buyback. So we've been talking about this
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game all week because Publix on the Saints getting nearly 60% of
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bets, but Lions going to Carolina.
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That was the first dead giveaway that pro money was going with
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the points here with Carolina. But the Panthers we're plus 4
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pretty much all week. Now they're getting down to 3
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1/2. This is what I'm talking about
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for game day. Movement last 24 hours the day
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of the game. If you can have consistent
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movement in your favorite, that's a great sign there's no
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buyback. We never saw this line creep
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back up to New Orleans. Seeing the Carolina fall from 4
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down to 3 1/2 at a lot of shops today, that's a great sign that
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smart money continues to like Carolina.
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But again, shop around. I bet this earlier in the week
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at +4 trying to find that four. If you had a book that's juiced
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up toward New Orleans, like -3 1/2 -, 115, which means Carolina
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is plus 3 1/2 at -1 O five. Maybe if your only option to get
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the fours to buy it up, you could take Carolina up +4 to
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-120 but try to get the four they have great bet split only
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44% of spread bets but 72% of spread dollars.
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Week one row dogs again 61% against the spread since 2016.
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But here's the kicker, the divisional dogs both in the same
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division, 30 and 14 ATS 68% since 2016.
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Both missed the playoffs the previous year.
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Take the dog 62% against the spread since 2016 and we have
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that correlative betting value. Dog low total total on this one
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is 41 1/2. Few amount of expected point
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score makes it harder for the favorite to cover, but this game
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has been on my radar all week. I love the fact that these fours
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are getting down to 3 1/2, but again, make sure you can
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hopefully get that four. If you haven't got it yet, I'm
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on Carolina at +4. Next bet for you.
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Tennessee and Chicago. Give me the Titans here guys.
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This game open with the Chicago Bears listed as a four and a
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half point home favorite. And we've seen Chicago now get
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down to -4 and today, a lot of these plus fours for Tennessee
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are juiced up -115 like it may even get down to 3 1/2.
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And I believe throughout the week, we did see some books get
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down to 3 1/2. So Publix on Chicago, they were
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obviously the Hard Knocks team. Caleb Williams, again, they're
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kind of a flashy up and coming team that the public wants to
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root for. But despite nearly 60% of bets
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on Chicago, again, the line is moving toward Tennessee.
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So it tells me we got smart money here to go contrarian and
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take Tennessee. You should still be able to get
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the +4 pretty widely available out there, but that would be a
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road dog, week one dog. Sean Smith, by the way, the lead
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ref, really good Rd. ref historically 59% against the
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spread. And here is a crazy stat for
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you. Assault flash.
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Maybe it was on Twitter or maybe on ESPN, but Caleb Williams
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making his debut today. Did you guys know the last 15
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quarterbacks who were drafted first overall and their debut?
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They've gone, oh, fourteen and one.
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So even though Caleb Williams should be a great player again,
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it's always difficult in your debut.
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So I want to fade Williams. I want to go contrarian, follow
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that RLM. I'm on Tennessee at +4.
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Keep on cruising. Houston, Indianapolis, your
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number one contrarian play of the week.
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We have everybody and their mother taking the Houston
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Texans. Houston Texans are right now
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getting 75% of spread bets. We open this game, you know,
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Houston as low as -1 1/2 - 2 because you have such
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overwhelming support for Houston.
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The signs gone all the way up to key to the key number of three.
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So really don't you don't have any smart money per SE on
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Indianapolis. This is a pure contrarian play.
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But it's not just the contrarian play.
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You have some good betting systems as well now that it's at
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3. And again, the key here is you
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got to get the three. Indianapolis, you could do 2 1/2
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up to 8 1/2. That is a sharp long teaser
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going through multiple key numbers.
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But I grabbed Indy +3. Again, we always got to think
8:13
back now that football's here back in our lives, if there's a
8:17
dog, we're hovering around 2 1/2, three, you got to get the
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three. You know, if you are a dog
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around 7, got to get the seven, not the 6 1/2 get got to get the
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hook. We always think about getting
8:27
these key numbers, but I did take the Colts here plus 3 as a
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pure contrarian play. There are the number one
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contrarian play of the week, only getting 25% of bets.
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This reminds me a little bit of like Iowa State yesterday and
8:41
college football. Also, it's the divisional dog
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angle divisional dogs in week when we mention it.
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Both these teams here from the AFC S 68% against the spread
8:50
since 2016. So I'm going to hold my nose and
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hope that Indy keeps it close. This is just to fade the public
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play. Give me Indy +3 now.
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Next one for you, Vegas and the LA Chargers.
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This is a game I had my on all week and I was trying to get the
9:05
hook. Look, ain't coming, guys.
9:07
If anything, let's make it down to 2 1/2.
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Give me the Vegas Raiders +3. Now, this one is notable because
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we open this game chargers -3 1/2 Chargers, obviously with
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Harbaugh, you know, hurt Justin Herbert.
9:20
I think a lot of it is, is Harbaugh kind of the boost of
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the public recognition of, hey, you know, good coach.
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He turned around the 49ers years ago.
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Obviously, he won the championship with Michigan.
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But there's a public love to want to bet the Chargers today.
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Chargers are currently getting across the market, nearly 2/3 of
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bets. But the Chargers open -3 1/2.
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They're down to three. And again, I told you I was
9:41
trying to get the hook. I think we just take the +3
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right now. The hook ain't coming back.
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And all these shops are juicing up the Vegas Raiders.
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Plus three at -115 like it may get down to 2 1/2.
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So again, don't let perfect be the enemy of good.
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I'm grabbing the three here with the Las Vegas Raiders.
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There will be a contrarian play, only getting around 40% of bets
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or 35% of bets. They're a divisional dog.
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They're also a dog low total told this one is 40.
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And again, if you can only get a 2 1/2, you could tease them up
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to 8 1/2. But as long as you get the hook
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here, guys, we have a contrarian reverse line move divisional
10:17
dog. Grab the three now before it
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falls even further. I'm on Vegas at +3.
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Vegas, baby. Next one for you.
10:25
I'm going to hold my nose and take the Washington Commanders.
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Commanders on the road at the Tampa Bay Bucks.
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We open this game Tampa Bay listed as a four point home
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favorite and the public's going Tampa Bay.
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You know, Commanders obviously been pretty bad for quite a
10:39
while at this point, Tampa Bay, no Tom Brady anymore, but still
10:42
a good team. You know, historically or
10:44
typically in the playoffs each year.
10:46
But the line is going toward Washington.
10:48
So we open this game Tampa Bay 4 point favorite Publix on Tampa
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Bay, nearly 60% of spread bets, but those minus fours are down
10:55
to 3 1/2. So why is the line going toward
10:58
Washington if Publix on Tampa Bay also great bet split on the
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Commander's, they're only getting around 40% of bets, but
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nearly 5660% of spread dollars. So low bets, higher dollars bet
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split. They would match a week 1 Rd.
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dog Bill Vinovich, by the way, 58% against the spread to the
11:18
road team. And also, if you're looking for
11:20
an over, this one kind of caught my eye. 41 1/2 up to 42 1/2.
11:25
Only about half the tickets, but 75% of the money is going with
11:29
the over here. So good bet split.
11:31
But this one just jumped out to me.
11:33
And again, this is my model. In general, I like sharp plays,
11:36
contrarian plays, system match plays.
11:38
But especially on week 1 when dogs typically bark loud.
11:42
Looks to me like Washington and Jaden Daniels are having some
11:45
good sharp liability, so I'm going to grab the hook.
11:47
I don't believe the +4 is available out anymore if you can
11:51
find it. Hey, that's great, but I'll take
11:53
the 3 1/2 if Washington loses by the key #3 we can cover with the
11:57
hook. I'm on Commanders at plus 3 1/2
12:00
and then my only favorite of the week.
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This is like the Dosakis guy. You know the Dosakis guy.
12:07
I don't always drink beer, but when I do, it's Dosakis.
12:10
Well, guess what? I don't always bet favorites,
12:12
but when I do, they're fade the trendy dog dog to favor verse
12:15
line moves. So I'm talking about the Dallas
12:17
Cowboys and the Cleveland Browns.
12:18
This is the most heavily bet game in the afternoon slate
12:22
aside from obviously the prime time game here tonight between
12:25
the Rams and Detroit. But Dallas, Cleveland 425
12:28
window, nationally televised most heavily bet game.
12:30
I believe this is Tom Brady's first game as well, but this one
12:34
is right up my alley because the public is all over Dallas as
12:38
America's team, of course. But Dallas open -1 on the road,
12:42
One point Rd. favorite guys. This line is completely flipped
12:45
to Cleveland -2 -, 2 1/2. So if 67% of spread bats are
12:51
going with Dallas, shouldn't Dallas opening -1 be up to -2 -
12:56
3? You know, it's very similar in a
12:58
way to Houston, Indianapolis, like Houston was, you know, one
13:03
1 1/2 point Rd. favorite. Now they're up to three.
13:05
They're getting 75% of bets. But why hasn't that happened to
13:08
Dallas if they're getting that big public support?
13:11
In fact, it's gone the other way.
13:12
Again, Cleveland has gone from getting a point to now laying 2
13:17
1/2 even though 67% of spread bets are on Dallas.
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So this is just blueprint. You open up the sports betting
13:23
dictionary, the everything guide to sports betting.
13:26
You're going to see a picture there of a fade, the trendy dog,
13:29
dog to fade reverse line move of Cleveland here.
13:32
So Cleveland having that line go in their favor despite only
13:35
getting a third of bets, but nearly half the money plus one
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to -2 1/2. I'm going to go money line here
13:41
though, guys. Anytime you have a short spread
13:43
like this dog to fave, you know I go money line just because the
13:47
odds makers are telling you it's going to be a very tight game.
13:49
Opening -1 Dallas now -2 1/2 Cleveland.
13:53
I would hate to see Cleveland win by one or two.
13:55
I lose because I lay a 2 1/2. So I'm going to go money line
13:58
here. I got Cleveland on the money
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line at -130. Now over to the player pop
14:04
markets. Let me give you an update here.
14:05
I'm on Panthers +4 Titans +4 Raiders plus three Colts plus 3
14:11
Commanders plus 3 1/2 and Browns money line.
14:14
Now over to the prop market from our friends at Rhythm who don't,
14:19
who do a fantastic job and have given us already a bunch of
14:22
winners to start the year from. The player prop market had a big
14:27
one with Devonta Smith going over his total.
14:29
And then remember we had Justin Watson and who was the other
14:32
one? Man, it was Justin Watson and
14:35
I'm already forgetting in that season opening game.
14:39
Who the heck was it anyway? 3 and all, that's all that
14:41
matters, but I have some prop bets for you guys from Rhythm.
14:45
Now remember, Rhythm is basically predicting an output
14:48
for player props and we're going to act like professional betters
14:51
where you know, a wide receiver is over.
14:53
Under is 30. Rhythm is predicting 50
14:56
receiving yards. We're going to take the over.
14:58
So here are the biggest discrepancy plays that caught my
15:00
eye. First one, DeAndre Hopkins over
15:05
44 1/2 receiving yards. Rhythm is predicting 67.9, so
15:11
that is a what, 23.4% discrepancy?
15:17
And again, this is how we've been cashing our player pops.
15:20
Oh, here I remember Lamar Jackson rushing just to just to
15:24
add that in. That's the one that we cashed
15:25
over. But anyway, Rhythm is predicting
15:27
67.9. DeAndre Hopkins in the market is
15:30
44 1/2. So that's a + 23.4 yardage
15:35
discrepancy advantage. So I'm going to go Hopkins over
15:38
DeAndre Hopkins going up against Chicago.
15:41
Not the greatest secondary in the world, obviously.
15:44
This is a total, by the way, that has risen 43 to 44, but
15:47
that is a big discrepancy. I'm going to go over Hopkins 44
15:51
1/2. DJ Moore same game if you want
15:54
to play this one. DJ Moore over 60 1/2 receiving
15:57
yards. This is the biggest discrepancy
16:00
that I've seen in rhythm in quite a while.
16:01
Rhythm is predicting one O 5.21 O 5.2.
16:05
That is literally a 45 yard difference between what the
16:10
betting market is offering 60 1/2 versus what rhythm is
16:13
predicting over 100. So I'm going to play that plus
16:16
45 yard discrepancy and go DJ Moore over 60 1/2.
16:21
Romandre Stevenson, Patriots running back.
16:24
By the way, Patriots have seen the line move in their favor.
16:26
If you want to hold your nose, they're getting 9 1/2.
16:28
They're down to 8 seven and a half.
16:31
Keep an eye out though, for I don't think T Higgins is out for
16:33
that one. But then Jamar Chase, what's
16:35
going to happen with him anyway? If you want to play this one,
16:38
Romandre Stevenson. The Patriots are probably going
16:40
to run the ball a lot. And Romandre is healthy.
16:44
They're top back, of course. But his rushing prop is 50 1/2.
16:48
Rhythm is predicting 74.5 rushing yards, so that is a + 24
16:55
yardage discrepancy. So I'm going to go over with
16:58
that. Romandre Stevenson over 50 1/2.
17:02
Terry Mclaurin. Terry Mclaurin and the
17:04
Commanders playing the Tampa Bay Bucks.
17:06
Terry Mclaurin top white out Fort Washington.
17:09
I've been reading about how he's got a great report with Jayden
17:11
Daniels. Go to guy obviously, but just
17:14
like DJ Moore, his receiving prop is 60 1/2 yards.
17:17
Rhythm is predicting 78.6. So that is a what we got there,
17:23
18 + 18 yardage discrepancy with a great opportunity to go over
17:29
and then also two more for you. And again, you play all these,
17:32
you can pick and choose. You can fade them, do whatever
17:34
you like, but I'm giving you the top system matches that I'm
17:36
playing and we will be discussing further on the live
17:39
stream. Brian Robinson, same game here,
17:42
the running back, remember he went to Alabama.
17:44
But this is a huge discrepancy. Brian Robinson going up against
17:49
the Tampa Bay defense, his over under rush yards, rush rush
17:53
yarding, sorry, rush yardage total, over under rushing yards,
17:56
whatever you want to call it, 42 1/2 rhythm is predicting 84.
18:02
That is literally doubling up the projection there.
18:05
So that is a + 42 yardage discrepancy.
18:10
Robinson over 42 1/2 rhythm predicting 84.
18:13
Then lastly, one quarterback prop here that caught my eye is
18:17
Deshaun Watson at home against Dallas.
18:19
We have Cleveland there in a fade, the trendy dog reverse
18:22
line move, but Deshaun Watson over 213 1/2 passing yards.
18:28
Rhythm is predicting 243.5. So that is a what, plus 30
18:34
yardage discrepancy and that is a tight game.
18:36
Maybe it's back and forth. Total there is 41 1/2.
18:40
Looks like actually total came down a little bit from around
18:42
4344, but that is a little little good, you know, kind of
18:47
wiggle room there. Watson over 213 half rhythm 243
18:51
1/2 So Hopkins over 44 1/2, DJ Moore over 60 1/2, Romandre
18:56
Stevenson over 50 1/2, Mclaurin over 60 1/2, Robinson over 42
19:01
1/2 and Deshaun Watson over 213 1/2 So 123456.
19:06
Isn't that nice? 4 bets, Sorry, 6 bets, 6 props.
19:11
This is what I'll be sweating here today and you are welcome
19:13
to join me if you'd like. But that about does it.
19:16
I know this podcast may be a little bit quicker than our
19:18
weekday pods, but I got to get ready for the live stream.
19:21
I hope to see you guys all there on Twitter 11:00 AM Eastern
19:24
Time. But it's great to have NFL back
19:26
in our lives and it is great to be able to breakdown games and
19:30
talk about these games with you guys now as I do finishing up
19:34
every pod that we do in the weekdays.
19:36
Obviously, this is our first Sunday 1:00.
19:38
If you could do me a huge favor, could you please give this
19:40
podcast a five star review? If you're listening on Spotify
19:43
or iTunes, it would go a long way to rising up the ranks,
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gaining some credibility as well as some more eyeballs.
19:49
If you want to recommend the pod to a friend, if you want to
19:51
click that follow button, that way you'll get alerted as soon
19:54
as it drops each day. That would be great as well.
19:56
And then also, if you want to learn more about data-driven
19:59
betting, I wrote a book, go buy my book.
20:01
It's the blueprint. How to go contrarian?
20:03
How to follow sharp action? How to set up a bankroll
20:06
management plan, betting system matches all included in the
20:09
Everything Guide to Sports betting.
20:11
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to Sports
20:14
betting, pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
20:17
It would really make my day guys.
20:19
Lastly, of course, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic
20:23
City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
20:25
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
20:27
Encore in Boston, or Plain Rich Park Casino or MGM Springfield
20:31
and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
20:32
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
20:35
Or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
20:38
possible is found at the South Point.
20:39
Or sweat and sharp Contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
20:42
swimming pool at Circa. When you catch a big ticket,
20:44
you're going to show me some nice winners from yesterday,
20:46
Iowa State, Tulane, Illinois. How about Sean Brady biting 12
20:52
straight baby, show me a Sean Brady ticket.
20:54
First one's on me, next one's on you.
20:55
We're going to post about the book Sweat Sharp contrarian
20:58
plays all NFL Sunday. Lastly, of course, you got to
21:02
sign up for Rhythm. You got to sign up for Juice
21:04
Reel. My two favorite apps that help
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me win. They're going to help you win.
21:07
Just click the bio description of this podcast.
21:10
You have some links there. You'll have the rundown of the
21:12
pod. Keep scrolling down.
21:13
There's a link for Rhythm and a link for Juice Reel.
21:16
Rhythm, of course, great live stream today, TuneIn.
21:19
We're going to talk a lot about rhythm with my buddy James
21:21
Santor AI backed player props, predictions, game models all
21:25
included with rhythm and then juice reel love their Robo
21:29
Jackson best bet picks went to an O yesterday, so shout out to
21:32
robo or maybe it's pick Sabin with these great AI names here
21:37
that came through two and O. You also get the arbitrage bets
21:40
sharp mush opportunities, sync up your sports books.
21:43
It is a great app there to help you win.
21:45
So go sign up for both rhythm and juice reel by clicking those
21:48
custom links in the bio of the pot.
21:51
So that about does it everybody. Let's have a great first NFL
21:54
Sunday. Let's try to grind out a profit.
21:56
I wish you the best of luck and of course, as always, I'm gonna
21:59
leave you with this. Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
22:02
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
22:04
house. Always be with the smart money,
22:06
never against it. Well, smart money when every
22:08
time, of course not. But here's the thing, over the
22:11
long haul, smart money is going to win more often than it loses.
22:13
So if we can find that sweet spot, that with our head and not
22:16
our heart, against the public, with the house, with the pros,
22:19
flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV, if we can do that,
22:23
we're going to be successful sports bettors.
22:25
So have a fantastic Sunday, everyone.
22:27
And again, join me once this pod drops.
22:30
Hopefully the timing is that once it ends, you can
22:32
immediately go to the live stream, but I'll see you on
22:34
Twitter at 11:00 AM Eastern Time.
22:36
Up until noon. You can bring some questions.
22:39
You can just listen to the breakdowns, but that will be on
22:41
Twitter or X 11:00 AM Eastern Time.
22:44
Hope to see you guys there. You can give me a follow at Josh
22:47
under score Insights. If not, I'll see you guys
22:49
tomorrow for episode 115 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
22:53
podcast powered by Rhythm. Thank God football's back.
22:57
Have a great Sunday.