Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Safer To Sell Crypto Now?📉Tariff Day Approaches
Transcript
- 0:06Speaker 1: Everybody's asking is it time to sell or not? We're
- 0:08Speaker 1: going to answer that for you. My name is Paul Barron,
- 0:10Speaker 1: Welcome back in the tech path. I want to thank
- 0:11Speaker 1: our sponsor today and that is I Trust Capital. This
- 0:14Speaker 1: is a place where at least you can go in
- 0:16Speaker 1: long term on your crypto holdings and put it into
- 0:19Speaker 1: an IRA, whether you buy bitcoin, ethereum, even maybe if
- 0:23Speaker 1: you want to get into some precious metals like gold
- 0:25Speaker 1: and silver, all of that can be managed within your
- 0:28Speaker 1: I Trust IRA. But check our link out blow of course,
- 0:32Speaker 1: you guys are going to up to a one hundred
- 0:34Speaker 1: dollars funding reward to get started. All right, So let's
- 0:37Speaker 1: go into a lot of what's been happening today. This
- 0:39Speaker 1: headline right here I thought was perfect liberation day or doomsday,
- 0:44Speaker 1: and now a lot of experts are looking at potentially
- 0:48Speaker 1: a crypto market correction that could happen as much as
- 0:52Speaker 1: ten to fifteen percent if you look at some of
- 0:54Speaker 1: the scenarios right now. Trump is pitching this right now
- 0:58Speaker 1: as a big win for American workers, and the idea
- 1:01Speaker 1: is that it's going to bring these tariffs are going
- 1:03Speaker 1: to bring back American jobs and a lot of American companies,
- 1:07Speaker 1: and I think the question is still up in the
- 1:09Speaker 1: air as to whether or not that will happen. Expect
- 1:11Speaker 1: a lot of chaos if tariffs blanket all imports and
- 1:15Speaker 1: then meeting people also are looking at that Crypto is
- 1:18Speaker 1: going to be fairly sensitive to this because of the
- 1:20Speaker 1: way that it responds to market pressures in macro, which
- 1:23Speaker 1: we've seen over and over just in the last few months.
- 1:27Speaker 1: April second, similar to Election Night, could be the biggest
- 1:30Speaker 1: event of the year by order of magnitude, maybe even
- 1:33Speaker 1: ten x more than any FOMC. That's where I disagree,
- 1:37Speaker 1: ten x more than an FMC if we received an
- 1:39Speaker 1: FOMC in May where we get a rate cut. My
- 1:43Speaker 1: opinion is that if we saw a rate cut and
- 1:46Speaker 1: more quantitative easning, that I think is more important than
- 1:50Speaker 1: anything of what's happening with tariffs. He says, though many
- 1:53Speaker 1: people looking at this is that a light touch could
- 1:56Speaker 1: spark a huge rally. So remember that Trump is still
- 2:01Speaker 1: using this, I believe as a negotiation tactic. It is
- 2:04Speaker 1: something that he has looked at for a very long time.
- 2:08Speaker 1: This is something that he continues to throw out in
- 2:10Speaker 1: the market to see what the market responds like, and
- 2:12Speaker 1: he looks at how countries respond as well. If you
- 2:15Speaker 1: rewind back to twenty twenty five, he announced twenty the
- 2:18Speaker 1: twenty five percent tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, plus
- 2:22Speaker 1: ten percent on Chinese, he dropped eight percent and twenty
- 2:26Speaker 1: four and then of course we saw that was in
- 2:28Speaker 1: reference to the market cap for bitcoin, but he also
- 2:32Speaker 1: reversed those. In other words, he paused them. And what
- 2:35Speaker 1: we're now looking at is exactly that, and that is
- 2:38Speaker 1: adjustments in how many of these countries are dealing with
- 2:41Speaker 1: the United States, which is what he's after right now. Now,
- 2:44Speaker 1: of course, all of this is still speculative as to
- 2:47Speaker 1: whether it is going to hit the market on April. Second,
- 2:50Speaker 1: I want to go to this first clip because this
- 2:52Speaker 1: will get you in the mindset that we're talking about.
- 2:55Speaker 1: Take a look, what do you.
- 2:56Speaker 2: Do with your investments in the meantime as you're awaiting.
- 2:59Speaker 3: All of those Yeah, I'm comfortable to say this, but
- 3:01Speaker 3: I would not be putting more money to work in
- 3:03Speaker 3: kind of risk assets at this point, so equities or
- 3:06Speaker 3: in credit. That doesn't mean sell what you already own.
- 3:09Speaker 3: I think the equity market is going to be caught
- 3:11Speaker 3: more of a trading range in the near term. As
- 3:13Speaker 3: you know, both technical pressures and policy fears bounce us around.
- 3:17Speaker 3: Tell you what that would make me nervous is if
- 3:19Speaker 3: companies are pulling guidance in first quarter earnings, not adjusting lower.
- 3:23Speaker 3: That always happens, adjusting lower, adjusting higher. But if they
- 3:26Speaker 3: say we actually have no visibility and therefore we can't
- 3:29Speaker 3: communicate that to the street, that makes me more nervous
- 3:33Speaker 3: because then I think you get more inconsistent expending, hiring,
- 3:39Speaker 3: and investing behaviors from those companies.
- 3:43Speaker 1: All right, So when you look at the bitcoin chart
- 3:45Speaker 1: right now, just to give an example, we were starting
- 3:47Speaker 1: at around seventy eight k just a few days ago.
- 3:50Speaker 1: We've risen up here to where we're trading right now
- 3:52Speaker 1: at eighty eight thousand at time of recording. But at
- 3:55Speaker 1: the same time, we're still seeing money flow coming out.
- 3:58Speaker 1: So this kind of matches with her situation, and that
- 4:02Speaker 1: is that maybe we're going to see some sideways action here,
- 4:05Speaker 1: maybe not a lot of people selling, but not a
- 4:07Speaker 1: lot of people buying. So let me know in the
- 4:09Speaker 1: comments down below, are you guys in a position right
- 4:11Speaker 1: now that is bullish or bary? So you have to do.
- 4:13Speaker 1: Just type bullish or bearish in the comments down below.
- 4:17Speaker 1: Make sure and subscribe to the show. I want to
- 4:19Speaker 1: go to another clip because this will get into the
- 4:21Speaker 1: whole idea of uncertainty, because that's the big question. Are
- 4:25Speaker 1: we at peak uncertainty yet? Take a look.
- 4:29Speaker 4: I think a real bottom was made or was just
- 4:31Speaker 4: a tradable bottom. I think you've probably seen peak uncertainty
- 4:35Speaker 4: on a range of policy outcomes, but I think they're
- 4:37Speaker 4: still uncertainty right. So market clearly has gotten more comfortable
- 4:41Speaker 4: with the narrowness of the tariffs. However, next week we're
- 4:45Speaker 4: going to have an announcement, and I think there is
- 4:47Speaker 4: probably some headline risk that in a negotiating approach, the
- 4:50Speaker 4: administration may put a very big number out there to
- 4:52Speaker 4: then work its way back as it's done, as it's
- 4:54Speaker 4: done in the past. I mean, our base case is
- 4:56Speaker 4: still that it's going to be relatively narrow, although tararefrate's overall.
- 4:59Speaker 1: Will move all right, so terror frate's moving up there.
- 5:03Speaker 1: Talking about a narrow response to the market. Another thing,
- 5:07Speaker 1: if you look at the market in general, this has
- 5:09Speaker 1: rarely ever happened in the past. This is coming in
- 5:12Speaker 1: from kobeec and that's the S and P five hundred
- 5:14Speaker 1: and the US Dollar Index have declined both six and
- 5:17Speaker 1: percent and three and a half percent, respectively since the
- 5:20Speaker 1: thirty first, So this has never actually done that where
- 5:23Speaker 1: we saw. Typically what you see is the dollar goes down,
- 5:26Speaker 1: markets go up. And the last time stocks and the
- 5:29Speaker 1: dollar fell in tenem was in two thousand and eight.
- 5:32Speaker 1: Do zimo, I remember what happened in two thousand and eight.
- 5:34Speaker 1: That was one of the biggest economic corrections we saw
- 5:37Speaker 1: both in real estate, what we saw in the savings
- 5:40Speaker 1: alone debacle, and it also started a heavy decline in
- 5:46Speaker 1: the US economy, and that's a concern right now. However,
- 5:49Speaker 1: if you look at the fear and greed, this is
- 5:52Speaker 1: where it gets kind of interesting. Fear and greed has
- 5:55Speaker 1: bumped up quite a bit. Here if I go zooming
- 5:57Speaker 1: in and if you look right here, this was back
- 5:59Speaker 1: in early March, and we saw seventeen come in on
- 6:02Speaker 1: the tenth and then here we are right now towards
- 6:06Speaker 1: the end of March, and we're holding a thirty four.
- 6:08Speaker 1: And overall, this is of course crypto fear and greed.
- 6:12Speaker 1: When you look at comparison to the market fear and greed.
- 6:14Speaker 1: This is on the S and P five hundred. This
- 6:17Speaker 1: still holding out a twenty eight, so fear, but definitely
- 6:20Speaker 1: moving up from where it has been, which has been
- 6:23Speaker 1: extreme fear. So back to the whole point of what
- 6:25Speaker 1: that previous clip is is that maybe the sideways action
- 6:29Speaker 1: is everybody in a position right now saying listen, I'm
- 6:31Speaker 1: not going to sell, but I'm definitely not entering risk
- 6:33Speaker 1: positions right now, and I think that may be the
- 6:37Speaker 1: safest bet going forward. Now you've got World Liberty five
- 6:39Speaker 1: on the move again. They're doing something kind of unique here,
- 6:42Speaker 1: and that is they're going in on the stable coin business.
- 6:45Speaker 1: And of course this is going to be announcing the
- 6:47Speaker 1: USD one. This will be a stable coin which is
- 6:49Speaker 1: one hundred percent back by short term US government treasuries,
- 6:52Speaker 1: so very similar US dollar deposit. Now their cash equivalents,
- 6:55Speaker 1: I know what those are. But the point being is
- 6:58Speaker 1: now we have World Liberty five. This is Trump's digital
- 7:01Speaker 1: assets company that is run by his basically his kids
- 7:06Speaker 1: and a handful of advisors now rolling into the stable
- 7:10Speaker 1: coin market. And remember, stablecoin legislation is about to take place.
- 7:14Speaker 1: So many people look at this and say, man, Trump's
- 7:16Speaker 1: just too active in these kind of things that are
- 7:19Speaker 1: being affected by Congress as we go, but this is
- 7:22Speaker 1: something that has been going on for quite some time.
- 7:25Speaker 1: The stock also jumped after Trump Media announced the major
- 7:28Speaker 1: crypto ETF deal. This was with Crypto dot com and
- 7:31Speaker 1: they're launching of course ETFs. If you look at a
- 7:35Speaker 1: couple of points within your crypto within the Articlecrypto dot
- 7:37Speaker 1: Com will make these funds available through its broker dealer.
- 7:40Speaker 1: This is for us that's going to be doing this
- 7:42Speaker 1: both in the US, Europe, Asia and acrossing all the
- 7:45Speaker 1: platforms and brokerages of the things within one hundred and
- 7:48Speaker 1: forty million yearsers around the world. That's the size of this.
- 7:51Speaker 1: And the DJT stock of course reacted to the announcement,
- 7:54Speaker 1: so it was a jump of eight percent. Now many
- 7:57Speaker 1: people would look at that and say, you know this again,
- 7:59Speaker 1: just remember Crypto dot Com was one of those exchanges
- 8:02Speaker 1: that were doing some very questionable things in the last
- 8:05Speaker 1: bull run, and some of people would just say, hey,
- 8:07Speaker 1: that was just part of it. The bull run was
- 8:09Speaker 1: a little crazy. We saw pause selling, you know, a
- 8:12Speaker 1: little bit of rug pulls in terms of valuations on yields.
- 8:16Speaker 1: All those kind of things that happened during that time,
- 8:19Speaker 1: but that was one of them. Maybe they've kind of
- 8:21Speaker 1: turned things around, we'll see. Now here's David Sachs. He
- 8:25Speaker 1: hits on something that is very important here because this
- 8:28Speaker 1: gets into the whole issue around where the FBI C
- 8:32Speaker 1: and the USOCC is going in terms of controlling banks. Now,
- 8:38Speaker 1: remember that Chowke point two point zero. The branking criteria
- 8:41Speaker 1: was if you had anything to do with crypto, you
- 8:43Speaker 1: were pretty much shut out, or even if if they
- 8:45Speaker 1: didn't like you, in some cases you would get shut out.
- 8:48Speaker 1: So this is something that is a big deal. So
- 8:51Speaker 1: what their idea is is that they're just going to
- 8:54Speaker 1: remove this scenario that plays into so the potential risk
- 8:57Speaker 1: on negative publicity regarding the institution's business practice. This is
- 9:00Speaker 1: if you were trying to get a bank account, whether
- 9:04Speaker 1: true or not, will cause a decline in the customer
- 9:06Speaker 1: based cost of litigation or revenue reductions. What they're saying
- 9:09Speaker 1: there is, let's say that the publicity, the negative publicity
- 9:14Speaker 1: of someone like an XRP or Ripple getting shut out
- 9:17Speaker 1: of Bank of America is so negative that it impacts
- 9:20Speaker 1: their business in general. So that is the thing that
- 9:23Speaker 1: they are concerned about, so interesting on this. So Tim
- 9:28Speaker 1: Scott is going to be doing this, and this is
- 9:30Speaker 1: the firm act that's going to basically shift this thing
- 9:32Speaker 1: around other things that are happening in DC. Of course,
- 9:35Speaker 1: you have to when you think about crypto, you got
- 9:37Speaker 1: to think about Senator Warren. And she is now pressing
- 9:39Speaker 1: the SEC nominee, Paul Atkins. So remember Senator Warren. They
- 9:45Speaker 1: have an agenda. The agenda is very clear, it's been
- 9:48Speaker 1: in many of our hearing videos that we do. Here
- 9:50Speaker 1: we're setting this up for another hearing as you can imagine,
- 9:54Speaker 1: that's coming on its way, and of course we'll get
- 9:56Speaker 1: a chance to see what's going on within this couple
- 9:59Speaker 1: of points. I want to highlight here deep involvement. This
- 10:01Speaker 1: is a reference to Atkins. His deep involvement with FTX
- 10:05Speaker 1: is one of her concerns and other high paying crypto clients.
- 10:08Speaker 1: Raises questions about your approach to cryptoregulation. Now I don't
- 10:11Speaker 1: know to what level Paul Atkins was involved, but notice
- 10:14Speaker 1: a statement here is involvement with FTX and other high
- 10:18Speaker 1: paying crypto clients. And I remember there are a law firm,
- 10:20Speaker 1: so yes, that's probably their business is supporting crypto clients
- 10:25Speaker 1: in general. Not unusual that those things are happening, but
- 10:28Speaker 1: Warren also questioned the issue of Trump's ties to crypto
- 10:32Speaker 1: in general. So you can see she's setting up some
- 10:35Speaker 1: positioning and some shore fronts on being able to again
- 10:40Speaker 1: fight in Congress to try to get into possibly slowing
- 10:45Speaker 1: down some of these bills. I doubt that it will
- 10:46Speaker 1: have any attempt on slowing down Paul Atkins nomination, but
- 10:50Speaker 1: it may have some attempt or some residue on many
- 10:54Speaker 1: of the bills that are going through Congress right now,
- 10:56Speaker 1: because remember, we still need some bipartisan support. Appears to
- 11:01Speaker 1: have the effect on entirely attempting presidents Trump meme coin
- 11:04Speaker 1: from the SEC's scrutiny. This gets back into the whole
- 11:07Speaker 1: situation of whether you like it or you don't like
- 11:10Speaker 1: this move. Is that Trump I won't say Trump individually,
- 11:14Speaker 1: but his entities are out there pushing and trading everything
- 11:18Speaker 1: from the Trump meme cooin to different assets, all those
- 11:21Speaker 1: kind of things. Many people would look at this, well,
- 11:23Speaker 1: you know, if you don't have politicians that have businesses
- 11:28Speaker 1: and they have to divest of all those, then you
- 11:30Speaker 1: have the question of do we end up with just
- 11:32Speaker 1: you know, career politicians in Capitol Hill. So I think
- 11:36Speaker 1: this is the challenge that it's a tricky one and
- 11:39Speaker 1: I don't know what the answer is, but I think maybe,
- 11:41Speaker 1: you know, one of our guys mentioned this today is
- 11:43Speaker 1: you know, maybe the idea is that if you do
- 11:45Speaker 1: get into an asset, you just can't sell it. And
- 11:48Speaker 1: if you are moving into something like that. And I
- 11:50Speaker 1: know that a lot of Congress is doing trades based
- 11:53Speaker 1: on data and information that they know that in many
- 11:56Speaker 1: cases the public doesn't know. So there's always that. So
- 11:59Speaker 1: this this is a letter from Elizabeth Warren here addressing
- 12:03Speaker 1: the issue with Atkins. But what she's talking about is
- 12:07Speaker 1: the Advocates of twenty twenty five. But primarily one of
- 12:10Speaker 1: the key things is this right here, and that is
- 12:12Speaker 1: the removal of a credit investors restrictions. So think about
- 12:17Speaker 1: that for a second, because accredited investors basically means you
- 12:20Speaker 1: have to have a net worth of a million or more.
- 12:22Speaker 1: You know, you've got to have a certain alliance to
- 12:25Speaker 1: understand what investments are. There's a lot of requirements to
- 12:28Speaker 1: become a credit investor where you get in early before
- 12:32Speaker 1: everybody else. What her idea is is that she's concerned
- 12:36Speaker 1: that they're safeguards for you me people that would be
- 12:40Speaker 1: wanting to invest in, whether it's token, small business, whatever
- 12:44Speaker 1: it might be, if these particular safeguards were dropped. And
- 12:47Speaker 1: I think that's the key. Everybody wants to be able
- 12:49Speaker 1: to manage their own business, their own wealth, their own
- 12:53Speaker 1: decisions on this. I think this is again just the
- 12:56Speaker 1: Democrats trying to hold many people out of the market,
- 13:00Speaker 1: and that in many cases is for a reason. Now
- 13:02Speaker 1: I want to go to Hester Pierce here she's talking
- 13:05Speaker 1: about some narrative around what Trump is doing, but also
- 13:10Speaker 1: kind of addressing what Warren is talking about.
- 13:12Speaker 5: Listening and even now with Trump's mean coin and malaise,
- 13:15Speaker 5: it was very interesting to see people in crypto basically
- 13:17Speaker 5: calling and saying, all right, hold on. Maybe Chair Againstler
- 13:20Speaker 5: might have had a point around consumer protections and the
- 13:23Speaker 5: integrity of markets as well, which I think is a
- 13:27Speaker 5: very interesting thing to consider now because similarly post February
- 13:31Speaker 5: and the idea of saying meme coins are kosher or
- 13:33Speaker 5: at least that they don't fall into the sec it
- 13:35Speaker 5: was interesting to kind of see capital formation dry up
- 13:39Speaker 5: around meme coins, as if everyone's saying I don't want
- 13:40Speaker 5: to be involved anymore because that's the case.
- 13:43Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think we shouldn't deny the fact
- 13:46Speaker 2: that just as you slap the word crypto on something
- 13:51Speaker 2: doesn't mean that problems that we've seen in other areas
- 13:54Speaker 2: are not going to crop up here. They could very well.
- 13:57Speaker 2: And I think it's also a time for us to
- 14:00Speaker 2: remind investors and consumers that, you know, you've got to
- 14:05Speaker 2: exercise skepticism when you make decisions about what you're putting
- 14:10Speaker 2: your money into. You have to think about whether you
- 14:12Speaker 2: can afford to lose.
- 14:13Speaker 1: That money, all right. So the point being is she's saying, hey, listen,
- 14:18Speaker 1: it's really everybody kind of has to pull up their
- 14:19Speaker 1: big boy pants and move into the markets. Whether you're
- 14:22Speaker 1: going into crypto meme coins, or you're going into businesses,
- 14:25Speaker 1: or you're going into stocks, bond, you name it. You know,
- 14:28Speaker 1: it's really up to you to kind of make those decisions,
- 14:30Speaker 1: not for the SEC to tell you what you can
- 14:32Speaker 1: and cannot buy. And based on what's happening in the
- 14:35Speaker 1: crypto market, let's move on over here to Circle USDC
- 14:39Speaker 1: becomes now the first stable coin a proof for use
- 14:42Speaker 1: in Japan again, This just shows you the move of
- 14:45Speaker 1: the markets in a very short period of time, and
- 14:48Speaker 1: the question is really still how the rest of the
- 14:51Speaker 1: world is going to address this. When you look at
- 14:53Speaker 1: some of the highlights here, one of the things I
- 14:55Speaker 1: want to key in on it is again strategic partnership
- 14:58Speaker 1: with SBI. SBI is a big deal because of their
- 15:01Speaker 1: relationship not only with now Ripple, but also their relationship
- 15:06Speaker 1: now with just stable coins in general. Overall. That's a
- 15:09Speaker 1: key thing because Japan is still one of the major
- 15:12Speaker 1: markets in terms of crypto. If you look at Jeremy
- 15:15Speaker 1: Lair right here, this is him doing the launch of
- 15:18Speaker 1: USDC in Japan. I mean they're getting into a lot
- 15:21Speaker 1: of probably regulators, a lot of family offices, private investments groups, etc.
- 15:26Speaker 1: That are looking at now crypto in a much different way,
- 15:29Speaker 1: especially with what's happening with SBI, which we've talked about before.
- 15:33Speaker 1: If you look further into this, here's a little bit
- 15:35Speaker 1: on SBI right here, Ripple and Asia in May twenty
- 15:38Speaker 1: sixteenth with Ripple to bring about remittance revolution in Asia.
- 15:42Speaker 1: This is the thing we've talked about before. If you
- 15:43Speaker 1: want to go back and learn a little bit more
- 15:45Speaker 1: about why SBI and Ripple are so aligned. Go look
- 15:49Speaker 1: at some of our Ripple videos. We break this down
- 15:53Speaker 1: quite I think in a good way detailed that will
- 15:56Speaker 1: help you understand this is a fairly big move in
- 15:59Speaker 1: the mar market in general. Now, the question to answer
- 16:02Speaker 1: is it's a safe time to sell if you were
- 16:04Speaker 1: going to sell, I look at it this way. This
- 16:07Speaker 1: is no different to an extent than what we've seen
- 16:12Speaker 1: in other volatile market run ups. Meaning we know when
- 16:16Speaker 1: certain things are going to happen. We knew when the
- 16:18Speaker 1: election was going to happen, we know when we're probably
- 16:21Speaker 1: going to see quantitative easing. We know that's going to
- 16:24Speaker 1: probably cause a lot of volatility, And I think right
- 16:27Speaker 1: now the macro position is still a little bit sideways
- 16:30Speaker 1: and flat. So if you're comfortable on a long term hold,
- 16:34Speaker 1: that's the kind of you know, the way I would
- 16:36Speaker 1: play it. Not financial advice. If you're out there trading
- 16:38Speaker 1: the market, then this may be the best time for
- 16:41Speaker 1: you to look at volatility in going in and out
- 16:44Speaker 1: of trades. But again a lot of times, unless you're
- 16:46Speaker 1: an expert trader, those things don't work, So just keep
- 16:49Speaker 1: a close eye on it. We are going to be
- 16:51Speaker 1: covering this pretty heavily throughout the week because April second
- 16:53Speaker 1: is just another week away, and I think we are
- 16:56Speaker 1: going to have a lot to talk about when it
- 16:58Speaker 1: comes to that. Get in on the dime circle. It's
- 17:00Speaker 1: a great place to get additional content from me, And
- 17:02Speaker 1: if you want to talk to me directly, you can
- 17:04Speaker 1: do that over in our telegram group. I'm in there
- 17:06Speaker 1: every day chatting with you guys, doing polls, getting your
- 17:09Speaker 1: insights on certain things. Use our link down below. It's
- 17:12Speaker 1: the only one we have. We only have one telegram group,
- 17:15Speaker 1: so don't let people use fake ones to try to
- 17:17Speaker 1: lure you ins The one down below very easy to do.
- 17:20Speaker 1: Follow me on x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you
- 17:22Speaker 1: next time right here on Techpath