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Impact of Infrastructure on Copper, Gold and Crypto · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
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  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
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  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. You love this segment.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You're talking precious metals, gold, silver, maybe throwing in a
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: little Bitcoin you'd like to do that with Everett Millman,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: precious metals specialist of Gainesville's Coin located in Gainesville, Florida. Everett, Uh,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: We're out with a little bit of a story. I'm
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: just looking at gold. It's off about one point four
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  Speaker 1: percent here to nine dollars and now's but it was
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: off I guess overnight as much as four pent some
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: folks calling it kind of like a mini flash crash.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Any idea what happened there? Was that just technicals. I
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: do think that technicals played a pretty large role here. Um,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: we have to keep in mind that during the summer
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  Speaker 1: trading volumes and gold are rather thin, and just adding
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: onto that and the fact that markets in Tokyo and
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Singapore were all for holiday, so the technical movements would
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: have a much larger effect in that low volume area.
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  Speaker 1: But I think the approximate cause was the strong employment
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  Speaker 1: data from Friday and sort of a carry over and
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: that as Asian markets opened overnight. UM. That definitely knocks
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  Speaker 1: some of the luster off of gold. And we also
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: have to keep in mind that sentiment in the gold
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  Speaker 1: market was already pretty low. UM. All of that seemed
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  Speaker 1: to kind of pile on in a quick technical sell off,
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  Speaker 1: but I think that's short term speculative activity. UM. Partly
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  Speaker 1: because of the swiftness we've seen the gold price recover
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  Speaker 1: this morning as well. Square with me to what feels
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  Speaker 1: like competing factors here. You mentioned the jobs report on
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  Speaker 1: Friday really strong, and yet overnight it seems like Goldman
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  Speaker 1: amongst others started downgrading growth out of China on that
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  Speaker 1: delta variant. How much of China is a headwind in
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  Speaker 1: terms of future lower growth yet some strong growth here
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  Speaker 1: in the US. Rights That is a very interesting dynamic
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: where we see a divergence possibly between the direction the
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  Speaker 1: Chinese economy is going and where the US is. You
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: would think that a weaker Chinese economy if the delta
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  Speaker 1: variant really is an under control there, that that would
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  Speaker 1: be rather bad for gold, given how much gold demand
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  Speaker 1: comes from China. But I think the overall sentiment or
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  Speaker 1: the overall narrative of the economy improving of things opening
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  Speaker 1: up that just overall reduces safe haven demand for gold.
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  Speaker 1: So between those two competing trends or forces. Um. Right now,
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  Speaker 1: the focus does seem to be on the US recovery,
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  Speaker 1: but in the on the horizon, I think that the
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  Speaker 1: China issue is certainly something there that gold traders should
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  Speaker 1: be watching. All right, Let's uh talk a little bit
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  Speaker 1: about some of the you know, copper was one medal
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  Speaker 1: that was really rallying earlier in the year, and I
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  Speaker 1: guess you know a little bit of a you know,
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  Speaker 1: demand driven there as it relates to, you know, maybe
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  Speaker 1: a reopening the global economy. UM, when's your thought on copper? Well,
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  Speaker 1: copper is somewhat interesting, interestingly in a crossroads right now,
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  Speaker 1: similar to what we're saying with the divergence between the
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  Speaker 1: US and China. UM, we did see Beijing sell some
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  Speaker 1: of its strategic copper stockpiles in order to try and
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  Speaker 1: quell prices and bring down that commodities inflation. But then
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: on the supply side, we have potential strike in Chile
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  Speaker 1: and that um, the Chilean strike possibility, even though it
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: hasn't actually happened. Um, that would have a major effect
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  Speaker 1: on how much copper is available in the market, Chile
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  Speaker 1: being the world's largest producer of copper and exporter. So
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  Speaker 1: I think that those two competing forces kind of us
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  Speaker 1: copper stuck in neutral right now. Um. But if I
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  Speaker 1: think inflation also plays a role there if we get
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  Speaker 1: sustained inflation. Um. We talk so much about that gold
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  Speaker 1: being an inflation hedge. It is, but copper and some
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: of the industrial commodities even more so factor into that equation.
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  Speaker 1: What is not stuck in neutrals? Bitcoin and Everett. It's funny,
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  Speaker 1: I you know, started on my career covering Muni bonds.
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  Speaker 1: My co anchor in the afternoon, Caroline loves crypto, and
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  Speaker 1: we were finally able to get our worlds to collide
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  Speaker 1: with the infrastructure bill, with crypto sort of being the
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  Speaker 1: big hold up. That being said, I'm taking look at bitcoin,
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  Speaker 1: which is up to forty thousand. What are the sort
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  Speaker 1: of indications that you look at to get us back
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  Speaker 1: up to fift k Well, I think that it hinges
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  Speaker 1: largely on, as you pointed out, with the Infrastructure Bill,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: what is the regulatory framework or environment for bitcoin and
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: crypto is going to look like going forward. We have
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: seen some mixed messages about whether Congress wants to sort
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: of enshrine proof of work cryptocurrencies like bitcoin as being
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: something that is regular did like other securities. UM. I
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  Speaker 1: think that would be rather positive if that was the
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  Speaker 1: final outcome. But of course there are those competing voices
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  Speaker 1: in the political realm who think rather differently that cryptos
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  Speaker 1: represent this major threat to the US dollar UM and
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  Speaker 1: to sort of finance as a whole, of the legacy
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  Speaker 1: systems of the financial UH framework. So I think that
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  Speaker 1: with that being said, UM, we'd like to see Congress
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  Speaker 1: make some sort of move on regulations. So this isn't
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  Speaker 1: just a question up in the air that the crypto
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  Speaker 1: market is constantly in fear of a major pullback like
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  Speaker 1: we saw about a month or two ago. UM. To
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  Speaker 1: get us back up to those highs, I really would
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  Speaker 1: like to see some clarity on on the regulatory outlook
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  Speaker 1: for bitcoin. All right, every thank you so much. We
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. As always Everett Millman, precious metal specialist of
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Gainesville Coins. Well, the United Nations, they backed a group
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  Speaker 1: of the world's top scientists to study climate change, and
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  Speaker 1: a new report came out from these folks, and it
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  Speaker 1: warns that the planet were warned by one point five
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  Speaker 1: degrees celsius in the next two decades without dramatic, drastic
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  Speaker 1: moves to eliminate greenhouse gas pollution. The question for a
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  Speaker 1: lot of investors is, oh boy, that sounds big. What
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  Speaker 1: do we do? How do we position ourselves? Abraham all Hussain,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: he joins us. He's a founder managing partner at Full
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  Speaker 1: Cycle private equity firm UM and they finance companies that
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: create positive social and environmental change. So when you see
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  Speaker 1: a report like this, Ibraham, what does it make you think? Well,
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  Speaker 1: it makes me uh re emphasizes the point that we've
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  Speaker 1: been saying since two thousand and thirteen, which is, you know,
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  Speaker 1: we need to increase the pace of rolling out low
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  Speaker 1: carbon infrastructure as fast as possible. And I'm glad that
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  Speaker 1: the scientific community is generating these types of reports so
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  Speaker 1: the investment community can understand how critical it is to
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  Speaker 1: the stability of our markets, our economy, our health our
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  Speaker 1: civilized nation, that we accelerate the pace of which we
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  Speaker 1: are transitioning to a low carbon future. One of the
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  Speaker 1: best things about what you do is you are scouring
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  Speaker 1: the landscape right to find investments that are focused really
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  Speaker 1: on sustainable infrastructure. What changes in the last few years
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  Speaker 1: have you seen about the types of new inventions, the
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  Speaker 1: types of new products, and really the amount I feel like,
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  Speaker 1: really just in the last few years, we've seen a
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  Speaker 1: huge surge in this topic. So one of the things
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  Speaker 1: that full Cycle focuses on is I've been I've been
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  Speaker 1: in this space before. Even a lot of the vernacular
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  Speaker 1: and nomenclature has been invented, mostly because I used to
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: be a scuba diver in the nineties and saw the
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: degradation and the quality of the marine life firsthand. And
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of what was obvious what is now obvious
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: above sea level was obvious underneath the surface of the
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  Speaker 1: water early on. I mean, all the droughts and the
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  Speaker 1: floods and the hydrocycle trans transform in front of our
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  Speaker 1: eyes and you know, uh, diminished crop yields, etcetera. What
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  Speaker 1: it looked like underneath the surface of the water was
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  Speaker 1: was bleaching corals and floating plastic where life was used
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  Speaker 1: to be abundant. So we've been fine tuning this nuanced
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  Speaker 1: approach to how we can transition to a low carbit
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  Speaker 1: economy and a risk adjusted return profile that any investor
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  Speaker 1: would be proud to be to participate in. And what
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  Speaker 1: we found is and what is one of the things
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  Speaker 1: that the kind of climate industry doesn't speak too much about,
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  Speaker 1: is that one percent of atmospheric greenhouse gases are actually
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  Speaker 1: responsible for over of the warming because not all greenhouse
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  Speaker 1: gas molecules are equal. For example, a methane molecule is
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  Speaker 1: eighty six times more heat trapping than a CEO two molecules.
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  Speaker 1: So what we do is we focus on what these
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  Speaker 1: molecules are called. There it's a it's a poorly chosen
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  Speaker 1: uh mis gnomer called short lived climate pollutants and things
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  Speaker 1: like methane and nitrous ox side and refrigerants. And when
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  Speaker 1: you focus on that, you produce something called a higher
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  Speaker 1: cr o I carbon return on investment. And we even
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  Speaker 1: invented our own metric called c r o I twenty
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  Speaker 1: which frontloads the warming abatement in the first twenty years
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  Speaker 1: to make sure that we are doing our part to
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  Speaker 1: minimize the warming cycle because, as you can imagine, warming
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  Speaker 1: receives more glacier melts more ice, which which creates less
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  Speaker 1: reflectivity to the solar radiation back into space, which creates
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  Speaker 1: more warming. So the more we can frontload our impact,
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  Speaker 1: the higher the more time will buy ourselves long term.
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  Speaker 1: So Abraham with the Biden Infrastructure Plan includes more billion
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  Speaker 1: dollars to boost clean energy and promote climate resilience. Is
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  Speaker 1: it enough? Is it a start? How do you view it?
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  Speaker 1: So it's definitely not enough. We literally need trillions of dollars,
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  Speaker 1: about two point three trillion dollars a year just an
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  Speaker 1: energy infrastructure investment alone, let alone all the other areas
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  Speaker 1: that contribute to warming, because it's not just an energy play.
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  Speaker 1: Our food systems are water systems or agricultural systems. They
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  Speaker 1: all contribute, and they contribute substantially. So we need a
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  Speaker 1: much higher number than what this plan is proposing. But
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  Speaker 1: it is a start. We're now talking about this, and
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  Speaker 1: I'm glad that the market understands that this is a
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  Speaker 1: massive job creation opportunity. It's a massive investment opportunities, probably
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  Speaker 1: the largest investment opportunity in human history. Because everything has
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  Speaker 1: to be upgraded. All the nineteenth century and twenty century
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  Speaker 1: is infrastructure technology that we rely on all has to
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: be upgraded to their twenty first century counterparts. So and
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  Speaker 1: this is these are all um technologies that make us
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: a better, faster, more cleaner society. So this is a
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  Speaker 1: natural transition, and I'm glad that we now have to
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  Speaker 1: do it, and we can't you no longer just can
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  Speaker 1: you know, kick the can further down the road any longer.
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  Speaker 1: We have to do it now. And I'm proud of
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  Speaker 1: this administrations for leading the charge in putting it out
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  Speaker 1: there and investing these close to a trillion dollars on it.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: We only have about thirty seconds within this bill. There's
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: been a lot of talk about those e V charging stations.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: A lot of people have said that batteries aren't always
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: clean in and of themselves. Are the EV charging stations
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: and the push to EV is that a good enough
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: goal to have as we think about getting away from
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: traditional gasoline. So, I mean, the the energy infrastructure in
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: the US is all being upgraded, you know, maybe albeit slowly,
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  Speaker 1: to a clean, clean sources and a new upgraded grid,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: which is there's a lot of money for upgrading the
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: grids between that we can now treat forward energy from
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: places that are efficient when it comes to wind and
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: solar to areas that are less efficient. So yep, all right, Abra,
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  Speaker 1: We're going to leave it there. Thank you so much
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  Speaker 1: for joining us. Ibraham al Husseini, founder and managing partner
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: of a full cycle, joining us from Los Angeles. Let's
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: get the latest on the investigation into the harrisment claims
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: against New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. I guess one of
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the most recent pieces of news on that is Cuomo's
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  Speaker 1: top aid, Melissa de Rosa, resigns mid harrassment claims against
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: the governor, raising to some the question of you know
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: who shares in some of this liability here. Let's get
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  Speaker 1: to that question with Ronnie said Home, managing partner set
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Home Law Group based in New York City. So Ronnie,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. I thought it
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: very interesting that again, this top aid Melissa de Rosa resigned.
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  Speaker 1: What do you thinks behind that and what are some
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: of the I guess legal risk for those in the
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Cuoma inner circle. Thank you so much for having me
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: on the show. First and foremost, well, you know your
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: guess is as good as mine on why she resigned.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: But most individuals do not resign from a a job
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: that pays them upwards of two and seven thousand dollars
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: a year for no reason. But from a legal perspective,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: there's something called aider and a better liability, And very briefly,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: it means that even if you are not the person
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: who is accused of sexual harassment in this case, you're
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: not Governor Cuomo, you may still be found to help
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: have helped him uh with his pursuits, and therefore you
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: may be found liable. So in this case, perhaps Mr
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Rosa was an aider and a better Your guess is
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: as good as mine should I mean, have we seen
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: examples of this aid aider and a better in business
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: cases or just your corporate cases that you've seen. I mean,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: there there is certainly a lot of discussion about aid
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: or and a better liability, but in my opinion, there
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: is not enough of a discussion. We always focus on
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: the individual who was sexually harassing somebody. Of course, that's important,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: but when you have someone here uh with who is
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: accused by several women, not just one woman, it's likely
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: that there's a whole litany of people who who are
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: helping the protagonist, and therefore, I think we should have
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: more cases that discussed this aid or and a better liability.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: But yes, you do see it oftentimes with banks in
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: law firms. Unfortunately, there have been several of the news
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you've touched on the subject, and in larger corporations.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, should there be It seems like it's extraordinary
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: difficult for the victims to to move forward with their cases. Here.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Is there some belief within the legal community that maybe
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: there should be some standard le google protocol to maybe
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: manage this whole process better, to give uh the victims
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: maybe more rights or make it a better process to manage.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: I think that while there is a lot of training,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: you know, it was made mandatory, you know, relatively recently
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: having sexual harassment training on annual basis in New York
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: State and New York City prior to New York State,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think that the training goes far enough in
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: helping people with their investigations. I don't think that there
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: is enough information and communication around the fear that some
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: people may have and that's why they're not coming forward,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: whether it is because they were harassed or because they're
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: helping uh this person sexually harassed somebody. It can be
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: something as small as you convince someone to go into
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: a room alone with another person, or it can be
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: uh more subtle. But the point is there's generally, in
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: my experience, multiple people involved when there are multiple victims
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: involved Cisco. I mean, you think about this, and there's
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: been some very high profile cases coming out of the
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: media industry, for example with Harvey Weinstein and maybe you
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: know some other executives in the media industry. It seems
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: like unless it gets to the board level, it doesn't
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: really get the attention it needs. I mean, is it
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: something that board members need to be held accountable for
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: for the workplace of the company. Uh. That's a tough question,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: and to me, it would really depend upon how often
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: this board is meeting and what information gets to the board.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think you should hold someone accountable simply because
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: they're part of an organization. In fact, recently, I think
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: there was a good decision that said that your boss,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Mr bloom berghers himself cannot be named as a defendant
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: simply because somebody in the organization may have harassed somebody.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: So I don't think it's fair to attack the owner.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's fair to attack the board members
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: if they had nothing to do with it. However, in
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: my mind, it doesn't matter to me whether the aid
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: or in a better was a high profile person or
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: you know, a lowly low rank individual or someone who's
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: not even part of the company. Anyone who is involved
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: in this kind of behavior needs to be punished, and
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: no one is really discussing that. Instead, uh, people are
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: allowed to resign or they just disappear, But we need
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: to go after those individuals also because I don't want
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: there to be a culture of approved, condoned, or any
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: other word you want to use sexual harassment in the workplace.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: What what are you looking forward to as next steps?
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: With Governor Cuomo in this whole situation, would what should
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: we be looking forward to as next steps? I mean,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: I would really uh like to hear both sides of
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: the story. I'm an attorney, so I do believe in,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: you know, the system of justice that we have here.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: I I think that we need to hear both sides.
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  Speaker 1: But at the same time, I think that the inquiry
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: that the Attorney General was making into non Governor Cuomo
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: employees is a good one and I really want to
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: monitor that and see where that goes. How I mean,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: this is something that would go potentially outside of his
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: inner group, or do you think this is they're going
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: to try to keep it pretty close. I think they're
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: going to try to keep it relatively close. I mean,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: just putting the law side for a second and using logic,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: it's easier to get somebody who's a confident of yours.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: It was personal loyalty to you to help you with
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: whatever it is you're trying to accomplish. Exactly. So, all right,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: very good, Ronnie set Home, thank you so much for
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: joining us. Roddy set Home, managing partner for set Home
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Law Group based in New York City, giving us some
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: added context to these investigations of Governor Cuomo. Looking at
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: the markets here again, kind of a bye day in
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: the markets. SMP essentially no change, the Dow off about
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: two tenths of one percent, and NASDAC up just slightly
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: up about one tenth of one percent. The Russell the
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: small cap stocks, they are off about two tenths of
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: one percent. Looking at the treasury market here to ten
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: year treasury trading off three UH off about three basis points,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: putting the yield up I'm sorry, to one point three
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: percent a ten year, I'm sorry. The third years still
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: below two percent on the tenure at one point nine
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: five H so just extraordinary. We've had some rates moving
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: back up over the last several days, but still historically low.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Of course, as we have a Federal Reserve talking about
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: continued low rates UH and really talking about tapering perhaps
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: late this year, but more likely into next year. So
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: that's kind of what we're getting out of the Federal Reserve.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: And of course Jackson Hole coming up later this month.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: That'll be another data point or another opportunity for the
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Fed to UH lay out some scenarios here. Looking at
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: the uh VIC for Tom Keane, it remains low at seventeen.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: Looking at the dollar Index d x Y nine two
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: point nine at d x y slightly higher here this morning,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: balance of power with David Weston that is coming up
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: in just moments. He will drive the conversation forward and
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: have the latest on the infrastructure package. On Paul Sweeney,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Like most people, my TV viewing is
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: going more and more from the lineal traditional UH television
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: broadcast cable networks more towards streaming. More and more content
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: is going towards streaming, and a lot of that streaming
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: is advertising supported. And we talk about advertising, you have
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: to count that audience, and that historically has meant a
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: c Nielsen in company getting those Nielsen ratings. But not
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: everybody thinks Nielsen is doing a good job with the
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: streaming world. Disney, I'm sorry to Discovery CEO David Zaslow
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: he hopes the industry leaves Nielsen in the dust after
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: ratings blunders. Let's get to the bottom of that with
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Mark Douglas, founder and CEO of m N t N
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: pronounced Mountain based in Los Angeles. Mark, thanks so much
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: for joining us here. You know, Nielsen, it seems like
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: you know they've been the gold standard for advertising, television advertising. Um,
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: that's the metric that billions of dollars of ads spending
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: is bought and sold every year. But they've had a
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: hard time keeping up with the new technologies. Where are
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: they VISA V streaming? Well, the way they think about
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Nielsen is, in my view, they're an analog company and
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: we now live in a world. So the way they
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: measure audiences is they literally asked people what they watch
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: using panels, and you know, when you had cable television,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: that was the only way to do it. But now
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: we live in the world where everything is delivered direct
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: to your home and it can be precisely measured, and
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Nielsen is not yet doing that, and that's the problem,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: and you know, some big money is being spending. We
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: talked about advertising streaming on demand a s v O D.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: I think that's Peacock, right, is that is Peacock an
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: example of that, absolutely, so Peacock. There's what's called Crimson streaming,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: which everyone knows is Netflix and Disney Plus. But the
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: bigger the market that's going very quickly is ad supported.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: So that's Peacock and Bravo and Discovery Channel, any of
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: the things you watch like on your your Roku or
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: you Apple TV, any of those apps that's that's generally
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: most of that now app supporters. So how did those companies,
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: like again the Discovery CEO publicly saying, you know, we're
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: leaving you know, a lot of money on the table
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: because Nils is not capturing that audience. Do we know
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: how much money in fact is being left on on
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: the table. Well, I think the way to think about
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: that is is last year or even this year, there
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: was a lot of talk about shows that were under
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: performing big ones like The Ochsters and things like that,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: and some of that probably definitely had to do with
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: the audience losing interests are being preoccupied with the pandemic.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: But increasingly people think it was just literally Nielsen couldn't
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: measure it or didn't measure it, and so that costs
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: those companies a lot of money because the ad rates
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: are based on the size of the audience, and so
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: if Nielsen doesn't measure the entire audience that someone like
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: the CEO of Discovery, that's a really, really big issue.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: It left a lot of money on the table. Also
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: for advertisers, they want to know how many people they're reaching,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: and so if Nielson can't tell them um accurately, then
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: that's a problem. But luckily we're moving into this world
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: where it is to be accurately measured, just not by Meilson.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: What is Nielsen's response to these criticism, because historically it
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: seems to me they've always been three or four years
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: behind where the industry was in terms of how people
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: are consuming the video. I'm not sure Nielsen has a response.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Look at other forms of advertising. If you look at
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Google with paid search, or you look at Facebook with
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: paid social, um, they don't need a Nilsen. Google can
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: tell you exactly how many ads they served in how
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: many people and the and so can Facebook, and so
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: can every other company in the digital ad industry like
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Mountain we do we do ads on on streaming television,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: and so Nielsen there's not necessarily room for them, and
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: and it's not needed, and there's no other form of
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: what you can think of a digital adverage tiking, which
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: is what streamingsion is when Nielsen plays a role, and
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to play a role in
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: streaming at all going forwards, certainly not a role they
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: played on cable. On cable television the path I think
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: the best days are behind them. Well, who is the
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: replacement for Nielsen er or what is the technology or
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: what is the solution here to capture this this viewing right,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: So when you're at home and you're watching, you pick
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: the show you want to watch. Even though it feels
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: like a television experience, it's more like going on the
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: internet and just picking a video to watch. It's more
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: like YouTube, you know, just selecting the video and so
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: that's called that's that direct streaming is done through technology
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: called in add server and and any time that add
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: server streams any time that shows just like if YouTube,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: you play a video off YouTube, YouTube is able to
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: count it um anyone streaming those shows like Discovery like
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: you know and a peacock, they are counting the number
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: of views themselves and they can report that data directly
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: to the advertiser and to variety and you know, all
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: the sources that are interested in them. So there's no
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: there's not a need for this end. The company that
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: estimates the number of people watch you know, all of
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: these TV network now can just tell you exactly because
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: the streaming one point is the whole point in was
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: it was an independent measurement. Will advertising dollars be transacted
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: on something that you know Discovery tells me or CBS
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: tells me, Well it is. Now there are ways of
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: auditing that you can as an advertiser demands audit rights.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: That's pretty common, but you know that's what everyone does now.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: You know, Google sells more than a hundred billion dollars
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: a year of advertising, Facebook over eighty billion, dollars a year,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: and for the most part, those same advertisers trust the
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: data that Google shares them and trust the data that Facebook.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: But the advertisers can get smart and they can ask
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: the ways to audit the data. And I don't think
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: you know, Google or any TV network wants to and
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: caught up in the scandal of you know, overestimating their numbers.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: All right. Fascinating story, market developing story for the world
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: of digital advertising and some of these streaming networks to
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: get their fair share. Mark Douglas, founder and CEO of
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Mountain based in Los Angeles. Thanks for listening to the
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three on
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.