Latest / The Infographics Show Podcast / The $2.3 Billion Gamble: Why Las Vegas’ Sphere is Failing
Transcript
- 0:11Speaker 1: Welcome back to another beyond infographic KFE. Today we're what
- 0:16Speaker 1: we are literally staring into the sun.
- 0:18Speaker 2: The artificial sun anyway, right, the.
- 0:20Speaker 1: Artificial sun, or more accurately, the largest artificial sun on
- 0:23Speaker 1: planet Earth.
- 0:24Speaker 2: Is it's bright. It is aggressively, unavoidably bright.
- 0:29Speaker 1: Yeah, if you've been anywhere near the Western United States recently,
- 0:33Speaker 1: or honestly, if you've just been on Internet in the
- 0:36Speaker 1: last two years, you know exactly what we're talking about today.
- 0:38Speaker 2: You absolutely have seen it.
- 0:39Speaker 1: It is the single most viral building in human history.
- 0:43Speaker 1: We are talking about the Las Vegas Sphere.
- 0:46Speaker 2: Which is really a triumph of the phrase because we can't.
- 0:49Speaker 1: Exactly It's a three hundred and sixty six foot tall
- 0:51Speaker 1: orb It is wrapped in five hundred and eighty thousand
- 0:54Speaker 1: square feet of LED lights.
- 0:57Speaker 2: Which is just a crazy number.
- 0:59Speaker 1: Right, and it's visible from space. I mean, it makes
- 1:01Speaker 1: the Pyramids of Giza look well a little bit subtle.
- 1:04Speaker 2: It really does. I mean, you've seen it turn into
- 1:06Speaker 2: a giant eyeball on social media. You've seen it turn
- 1:08Speaker 2: into a pumpkin for.
- 1:09Speaker 1: Halloween, snow globe for Christmas, right.
- 1:12Speaker 2: The snow globe. It is a technological Marvel. There is
- 1:16Speaker 2: absolutely no disputing that.
- 1:18Speaker 1: No, none at all. And on the surface, this thing
- 1:21Speaker 1: looks like this massive victory lab for humanity. It looks
- 1:24Speaker 1: like the future of entertainment just sort of dropped out
- 1:27Speaker 1: of the sky and landed right on the Las Vegas Strip.
- 1:30Speaker 2: It is the ultimate shiny object.
- 1:33Speaker 1: It really is. It's shiny, it's new. Everyone is talking
- 1:36Speaker 1: about it. But and yet there is always a butt
- 1:39Speaker 1: on this show.
- 1:39Speaker 2: There always is.
- 1:40Speaker 1: We aren't here today to review the light show. We
- 1:43Speaker 1: aren't here to talk about how cool the emoji face
- 1:46Speaker 1: looks on Instagram.
- 1:47Speaker 2: No, we are here to talk about the Ledger exactly.
- 1:49Speaker 1: We are here to talk about the bank account because
- 1:52Speaker 1: for all of you listening, we want to get past
- 1:54Speaker 1: the shiny exterior and look at what is actually happening
- 1:57Speaker 1: behind the screens.
- 1:59Speaker 2: And the bank count is uh, well, it looks like
- 2:01Speaker 2: a disaster movie.
- 2:03Speaker 1: That is putting it mildly. While the sphere looks like
- 2:05Speaker 1: the year twenty fifty. On the outside of the app,
- 2:08Speaker 1: the finances looked like a complete panic attack.
- 2:10Speaker 2: Yeah, they really do.
- 2:11Speaker 1: We are talking about a project that was originally budgeted
- 2:15Speaker 1: at one point two billion dollars.
- 2:17Speaker 2: Which is already a massive number, right.
- 2:19Speaker 1: Well, one point two billion is already an insane amount
- 2:22Speaker 1: of money for a concert venue.
- 2:24Speaker 2: But it didn't stay there, No.
- 2:25Speaker 1: It ballooned. It ballooned aggressively.
- 2:28Speaker 2: It ballooned to two point three billion dollars. That is
- 2:31Speaker 2: a ninety one percent cost overrun.
- 2:34Speaker 1: Just to put that in perspective for you for a second.
- 2:36Speaker 1: That overrun alone, just the extra money they spent that
- 2:40Speaker 1: they did not plan to spend is enough to build
- 2:43Speaker 1: two or maybe three state of the art NBA arenas.
- 2:46Speaker 2: Just the extra money, just.
- 2:47Speaker 1: The oops, we made a mistake money.
- 2:49Speaker 2: It's staggering. And the bleeding didn't stop once the construction
- 2:53Speaker 2: ended either. Shortly after it opened, the company posted a
- 2:56Speaker 2: loss of nearly one hundred million dollars in a single
- 2:59Speaker 2: court in a single quarter, ninety eight point four million
- 3:02Speaker 2: to be exact.
- 3:03Speaker 1: And this is where the drama really kicks in for
- 3:06Speaker 1: our deep dive today.
- 3:07Speaker 2: Yeah, the corporate drama, right.
- 3:08Speaker 1: Because the CFO, the exact person responsible for the money.
- 3:12Speaker 2: Quick and the reports surrounding that departure are incredibly telling. Reportedly,
- 3:17Speaker 2: he quit after being screened at by the CEO, James Dolan.
- 3:20Speaker 1: So we have a two point three billion dollar glowing orb.
- 3:24Speaker 1: We have a CEO yelling at his executives and a
- 3:27Speaker 1: bank account that is hemorrhaging cash.
- 3:29Speaker 2: It is a very expensive mystery, it really is.
- 3:31Speaker 1: Ye. So the mission for today's deep dive is simple.
- 3:34Speaker 1: We need to answer one fundamental question for you. Can
- 3:37Speaker 1: a venue that costs two point three billion to build
- 3:41Speaker 1: but has no casino, no hotel, and sits empty for
- 3:44Speaker 1: huge chunks of the year actually survive or.
- 3:48Speaker 2: Is this just the world's most expensive mistake?
- 3:50Speaker 1: Right? So we're going to break this down into three
- 3:52Speaker 1: specific failures based on all the sources we've reviewed. We're
- 3:55Speaker 1: going to look at the engineering trap, the content bottleneck,
- 3:58Speaker 1: and finally, the financial blief.
- 4:00Speaker 2: Let's start with the building itself.
- 4:02Speaker 1: Yeah. I want to start there, Yeah, because I think
- 4:04Speaker 1: this is where the misconception really starts for most of us.
- 4:06Speaker 1: You look at it, you think, wow, cool screen, best
- 4:09Speaker 1: venue ever.
- 4:10Speaker 2: But the screen itself is the core problem.
- 4:12Speaker 1: Unpack that for me, because if I'm buying a ticket
- 4:15Speaker 1: to a show and the venue has the highest resolution
- 4:18Speaker 1: screen in the history of the world, shouldn't that be
- 4:21Speaker 1: the best place on earth to see a concert?
- 4:24Speaker 2: You would logically think so, But this is what we
- 4:26Speaker 2: call the screen first venue second paradox. You have to
- 4:30Speaker 2: understand how a concert actually works. Okay, think about a
- 4:34Speaker 2: standard arena show. You go to see a band at
- 4:37Speaker 2: Madison Square Garden or the Two in London. What is
- 4:40Speaker 2: the environment like.
- 4:42Speaker 1: It's dark. It's basically a black box exactly.
- 4:44Speaker 2: It is a cavern. You hang trusses from the ceiling.
- 4:47Speaker 2: You point lights at the band. You use front light
- 4:50Speaker 2: to see their faces back late to separate them from
- 4:52Speaker 2: the background.
- 4:53Speaker 1: It's just rock and roll one zero one.
- 4:55Speaker 2: The physics are simple. Darkness plus light equals focus.
- 4:59Speaker 1: Makes sense.
- 5:00Speaker 2: Now, imagine you are inside the sphere, the entire building,
- 5:04Speaker 2: the walls, the seal, everything around you.
- 5:06Speaker 1: Is a light source because the walls are the screen.
- 5:09Speaker 2: Yes, you are essentially standing inside a giant light bulb.
- 5:13Speaker 1: Okay, I'm picturing it. It sounds immersive.
- 5:15Speaker 2: It's almost too immersive. If you turn that screen on
- 5:18Speaker 2: to show those incredible visuals, the ambient light in the
- 5:21Speaker 2: room skyrockets. It becomes incredibly bright in there, so it
- 5:24Speaker 2: washes out the band, completely washes them out. If the
- 5:27Speaker 2: screen is doing its job, the band looks like shadowy
- 5:30Speaker 2: ghosts down on the stage. They essentially disappear.
- 5:33Speaker 1: Wow.
- 5:34Speaker 2: But here is the catch. If you try to fix
- 5:37Speaker 2: that by blasting the band with traditional spotlights, big heavy
- 5:40Speaker 2: touring lights to make them visible, that light spills everywhere.
- 5:43Speaker 1: Oh I see, it hits the screen.
- 5:45Speaker 2: It hits the screen, and it washes out the image.
- 5:47Speaker 1: So the building physically fights itself. The screen fights the stage.
- 5:52Speaker 2: It is a physics conflict albedo reflection emission. They are
- 5:55Speaker 2: all at war inside the stone. You cannot have a
- 5:58Speaker 2: perfect black level on the screen and a bright spotlight
- 6:02Speaker 2: on the singer at the same time in that specific geometry.
- 6:05Speaker 1: And this isn't just theoretical, is it? When you two
- 6:08Speaker 1: was preparing to open the venue, they ran into this immediately.
- 6:11Speaker 2: You two was absolutely the guinea pig for this venue.
- 6:15Speaker 1: Which makes sense. They always pushed tech right.
- 6:17Speaker 2: And the venue had a built in lighting system. The
- 6:19Speaker 2: engineers told them, look, we built this state of the
- 6:21Speaker 2: art lighting rig.
- 6:22Speaker 1: Just use this, and what did you two say?
- 6:24Speaker 2: Their production team took one look at it, tested it,
- 6:27Speaker 2: and realized it was essentially useless for a rock show
- 6:31Speaker 2: in that environment.
- 6:32Speaker 1: So what do they do? Two? Isn't exactly a band
- 6:34Speaker 1: that plays in the dark.
- 6:35Speaker 2: They completely scrapped the house system. They had to build
- 6:38Speaker 2: a custom lighting rig from scratch for.
- 6:40Speaker 1: A brand new, two billion dollar building.
- 6:43Speaker 2: Yes, and this wasn't an afternoon job. It took them
- 6:46Speaker 2: fifty days.
- 6:47Speaker 1: Of testing, way fifty days.
- 6:49Speaker 2: Fifty days. Just think about the burn rate of a
- 6:52Speaker 2: massive production crew living in Las Vegas for fifty days.
- 6:56Speaker 1: That is insane.
- 6:57Speaker 2: They sat in that venue tweaking dimmer switches, moving trusses,
- 7:01Speaker 2: trying to figure out how to light a human being
- 7:03Speaker 2: inside a television without ruining the picture.
- 7:06Speaker 1: That is almost two months of rent effectively just to.
- 7:08Speaker 2: Figure out the lights, and that time costs an absolute fortune.
- 7:12Speaker 2: But it highlights the core issue with the building. The
- 7:15Speaker 2: sphere was designed for the keynote. It was designed for
- 7:18Speaker 2: the tech demo, like an Apple event exactly. It's perfect
- 7:22Speaker 2: if you want to stand on a small stage and
- 7:24Speaker 2: show a giant graph behind you. But it wasn't really
- 7:27Speaker 2: designed for the practical, messy reality of a touring rock
- 7:29Speaker 2: band that needs mood and shadow.
- 7:31Speaker 1: And it's not just the lights, is it. I was
- 7:34Speaker 1: looking at the notes on the resolution issues. Yeah, and
- 7:36Speaker 1: this part really surprised me because I assumed high resolution
- 7:40Speaker 1: is always better.
- 7:41Speaker 2: That's the consumer mindset, right.
- 7:43Speaker 1: Like, when I buy a TV, I want the biggest number,
- 7:46Speaker 1: four KAK whatever.
- 7:47Speaker 2: In consumer electronics, yes, a bigger number usually means a
- 7:51Speaker 2: better picture. But in production, in the world of actually
- 7:55Speaker 2: making content, a bigger number means a data nightmare.
- 7:59Speaker 1: Okay, why is that?
- 8:00Speaker 2: Well, the Sphere has a sixteen K.
- 8:02Speaker 1: Resolution screen, which sounds amazing.
- 8:04Speaker 2: It sounds amazing until you ask one simple question, where
- 8:07Speaker 2: is the content? Oh, Hollywood movies, even the biggest blockbusters
- 8:11Speaker 2: like Avengers or Avatar are generally finished in four K,
- 8:15Speaker 2: maybe six K if they are really pushing the envelope.
- 8:17Speaker 1: So even the best cameras in the world aren't capturing
- 8:20Speaker 1: enough detail to fill this screen nowhere near it.
- 8:23Speaker 2: If you took a standard blu ray of the Avengers
- 8:26Speaker 2: and plate it on the Sphere, it would look blurry.
- 8:29Speaker 2: It would look like a pixelated mosaic.
- 8:31Speaker 1: So you essentially have a VR headset problem.
- 8:34Speaker 2: That is the perfect analogy. You know, when you buy
- 8:36Speaker 2: a brand new VR headset. The hardware is incredible, but
- 8:39Speaker 2: there are no games for it yet.
- 8:40Speaker 1: Yeah, it just sits on the desk.
- 8:41Speaker 2: That is the Sphere. You cannot just plug in a
- 8:44Speaker 2: laptop and play a movie. You can't even play a
- 8:46Speaker 2: standard IMAX movie.
- 8:47Speaker 1: So if I want to put something on that screen,
- 8:50Speaker 1: I have to make.
- 8:50Speaker 2: It from scratch, not just mate, you have to manufacture it.
- 8:53Speaker 2: We are talking about upscaling using AI. We are talking
- 8:57Speaker 2: about massive rendering farms. You have to reconstruc rupt images
- 9:01Speaker 2: to fit a curved sixteen K surface.
- 9:04Speaker 1: I want to pause on rendering farms for a second.
- 9:06Speaker 1: For you listening who might not do three D animation?
- 9:10Speaker 1: What does that actually mean in practice?
- 9:12Speaker 2: Think about your home computer exporting a short video you
- 9:15Speaker 2: made on your phone. It takes a few minutes, right sure.
- 9:17Speaker 2: To render a single frame of sixteen K footage for
- 9:20Speaker 2: the Sphere can take hours of computing.
- 9:22Speaker 1: Time hours for one frame, and a.
- 9:25Speaker 2: Show has twenty four or maybe sixty frames every single second.
- 9:29Speaker 2: Oh wow, the math gets out of control immediately. You
- 9:33Speaker 2: need literal supercomputers just to generate the video five So.
- 9:36Speaker 1: I definitely can't just rent the Sphere for my birthday
- 9:38Speaker 1: and play Mario Kart.
- 9:39Speaker 2: You definitively cannot play Mario Kart. The latency alone would
- 9:43Speaker 2: make it unplayable, but the resolution would look terrible anyway,
- 9:46Speaker 2: got it? And this brings us to a specific incident
- 9:49Speaker 2: that really revealed just how fragile this whole system is.
- 9:52Speaker 2: Do you remember the crowd strikeoutage?
- 9:54Speaker 1: Oh yeah, July twenty twenty four, the day the Earth
- 9:57Speaker 1: stood still. Basically, airports shut down, banks went offline.
- 10:01Speaker 2: Right now. In a normal concert venue, say T Mobile
- 10:05Speaker 2: Arena just down the street in Vegas, the lights and
- 10:07Speaker 2: sound are usually controlled by.
- 10:09Speaker 1: A local board, like a physical mixing desk.
- 10:11Speaker 2: Exactly, It's a closed loop. If the global internet goes down,
- 10:14Speaker 2: the show goes on. The guy at the lighting board
- 10:17Speaker 2: just keeps pushing the physical faders.
- 10:18Speaker 1: It's hardware, it switches and cables.
- 10:21Speaker 2: But the sphere is not a normal building. The sphere
- 10:24Speaker 2: is a distributed computing system that just happens to have
- 10:27Speaker 2: seats inside it.
- 10:28Speaker 1: That is a wild way to think about it.
- 10:30Speaker 2: It relies entirely on external cloud computing. It relies on
- 10:34Speaker 2: complex software pipelines. So when CrowdStrike hit, local media and
- 10:38Speaker 2: Vegas reported seeing the blue screen of death on the displays.
- 10:42Speaker 1: No way at the literal Windows blue screen of death
- 10:46Speaker 1: on the world's biggest.
- 10:46Speaker 2: Screen systems completely failed because a software update glitch three
- 10:52Speaker 2: states away in a data center knocked.
- 10:54Speaker 1: Out the venue That is crazy.
- 10:56Speaker 2: It revealed a terrifying vulnerability. This building is an IoT device.
- 11:01Speaker 2: It's an Internet of Things device the size of a stadium.
- 11:04Speaker 1: That has to be a terrifying thought for a promoter. Yeah,
- 11:06Speaker 1: imagine you have eighteen thousand people waiting in their seats
- 11:09Speaker 1: for a show and you can't start because your building
- 11:12Speaker 1: is forcing a Windows update.
- 11:13Speaker 2: It's the difference between analog reliability and digital fragility. And
- 11:17Speaker 2: we haven't even talked about the physical experience of the
- 11:19Speaker 2: people sitting in those seats yet.
- 11:21Speaker 1: Yes, let's talk about the seats. Because if I'm paying
- 11:24Speaker 1: over the p prices four thousand dollars for a ticket easily,
- 11:28Speaker 1: If I'm paying that, I expect absolute perfection. I expect
- 11:32Speaker 1: to see God.
- 11:33Speaker 2: Essentially, you expect to see the screen at the very
- 11:36Speaker 2: least right.
- 11:37Speaker 1: But that didn't happen for everyone, did it.
- 11:39Speaker 2: No, it's a geometry problem. To make a sphere, the
- 11:43Speaker 2: walls have to curve inward at the top and bottom.
- 11:45Speaker 2: That's just basic math, okay. But to fit enough people
- 11:48Speaker 2: inside a sphere to make money, you have to stack
- 11:51Speaker 2: the seating decks vertically. You have to build steep balconies
- 11:54Speaker 2: to get the capacity up.
- 11:56Speaker 1: Okay, I'm visualizing the cross section. It's very steep.
- 11:58Speaker 2: So if you are in the lower lefe the one
- 12:00Speaker 2: hundred section, which are usually the premium seats in any
- 12:03Speaker 2: other arena, you are tucked underneath the overhang of the
- 12:07Speaker 2: two hundred section.
- 12:08Speaker 1: Oh I see where this is going. It's like sitting
- 12:10Speaker 1: under the balcony at an old Broadway theater.
- 12:12Speaker 2: Exactly like that. But in an old theater, the show
- 12:15Speaker 2: is down on the stage in the sphere. The show
- 12:18Speaker 2: is above you on the ceiling. Oh no, So if
- 12:20Speaker 2: you sat in the back of the one hundreds, the
- 12:22Speaker 2: concrete overhang physically blocked your view of the top half
- 12:26Speaker 2: of the screen.
- 12:27Speaker 1: You paid four thousand dollars and you had a concrete
- 12:30Speaker 1: roof in your face.
- 12:30Speaker 2: Precisely, VIP tickets costing thousands of dollars had totally obstructed views.
- 12:36Speaker 2: Management actually had to issue refunds.
- 12:38Speaker 1: That is a massive oversight.
- 12:40Speaker 2: Think about the design flaw there. You built a screen
- 12:43Speaker 2: that wraps around the audience, and then you built seating
- 12:46Speaker 2: that blocks the screen.
- 12:48Speaker 1: It's like building a ferrari and forgetting to put it in
- 12:50Speaker 1: a windshield or putting a pillar right in front of
- 12:53Speaker 1: the driver's face.
- 12:54Speaker 2: And for the people who could see the screen clearly,
- 12:57Speaker 2: some of them had a totally different problem.
- 13:00Speaker 1: Motion sickness really like physical throwout motion sickness.
- 13:03Speaker 2: The fear vertigo. The resolution is so high and the
- 13:07Speaker 2: curved screen covers your entire peripheral vision.
- 13:10Speaker 1: Right, so your brain gets tricked.
- 13:11Speaker 2: Your brain absolutely thinks you are moving, but your inner
- 13:15Speaker 2: ear knows you're sitting perfectly still in a chair. That
- 13:19Speaker 2: sensory disconnect causes intense nausea. People were literally stumbling out
- 13:24Speaker 2: of the aisles.
- 13:24Speaker 1: Okay, so let's just recap the engineering trap before we
- 13:27Speaker 1: move to the next section. Sure we have a venue
- 13:29Speaker 1: that washes out. The performer requires literal supercomputers to make
- 13:35Speaker 1: the video content crashes like an old PC blocks your view.
- 13:39Speaker 1: If you pay too much for a ticket, it makes
- 13:41Speaker 1: you vomit if you see it perfectly.
- 13:43Speaker 2: That is a very fair and accurate summary. It is
- 13:46Speaker 2: an engineering marvel that simply forgot about the human user.
- 13:49Speaker 1: Okay, so that's the hardware. But let's say you fix
- 13:52Speaker 1: all those glitches, you hand out barf bags, you patch
- 13:56Speaker 1: the software, you still need to put a show on
- 13:58Speaker 1: the stage.
- 13:59Speaker 2: And this is the hurdle because This is where.
- 14:01Speaker 1: I got really confused reviewing the source material. Vegas is
- 14:04Speaker 1: the entertainment capital of the world. Why don't they just
- 14:08Speaker 1: book the biggest stars right now? Why isn't Taylor Swift
- 14:12Speaker 1: playing this fear? Why isn't Beyonce doing a weekend there?
- 14:15Speaker 2: This brings us to the content bottleneck, and honestly, this
- 14:19Speaker 2: is the much bigger problem. Hardware glitches can be patched eventually,
- 14:22Speaker 2: but this, this is a fundamental structural business problem.
- 14:26Speaker 1: Why though Taylor Swift plays stadiums, the Fear is basically
- 14:30Speaker 1: just a small, tech heavy stadium. Just book her and
- 14:33Speaker 1: pay her.
- 14:33Speaker 2: Right, It's a very logical thought, but you have to
- 14:36Speaker 2: look at the massive logistics of a modern megator. When
- 14:39Speaker 2: Taylor Swift or The Weekend or any massive act goes
- 14:42Speaker 2: on tour, they are running a military operation, right.
- 14:45Speaker 1: It's a huge undertaking.
- 14:47Speaker 2: They have a stage design that fits into fifty or
- 14:50Speaker 2: maybe eighty semi trucks. They drive to a city, they
- 14:53Speaker 2: unload into a standard rectangular arena or stadium, they plug
- 14:58Speaker 2: everything in, they play, they pack it all back up,
- 15:01Speaker 2: and they leave for the next city.
- 15:02Speaker 1: It is a literal factory line.
- 15:04Speaker 2: It is a machine of pure efficiency and the Sphere.
- 15:08Speaker 2: The Sphere completely breaks that machine. You cannot bring a
- 15:11Speaker 2: standard touring rig into the Sphere.
- 15:13Speaker 1: Because of the lighting issues.
- 15:14Speaker 2: We talked about the lighting issues. The shape is wrong,
- 15:17Speaker 2: the stage size is different. To play the Sphere, you
- 15:20Speaker 2: have to create a show specifically and only for the Sphere.
- 15:23Speaker 1: And we already established that creating that custom contact costs
- 15:27Speaker 1: millions of dollars.
- 15:28Speaker 2: Estimates put it at around ten million to twenty million
- 15:31Speaker 2: dollars just to create the visuals for the screen, just
- 15:34Speaker 2: for the video, just for the video, and it takes
- 15:36Speaker 2: months of lead time. So play the role of an
- 15:38Speaker 2: agent for a second. You represent Taylor Swift.
- 15:41Speaker 1: I like this job.
- 15:43Speaker 2: You are currently making thirteen million dollars a night playing
- 15:47Speaker 2: massive open air football stadiums with the stage setup you
- 15:51Speaker 2: already paid for and own. James Dolan calls you up
- 15:54Speaker 2: and says, hey, I want Taylor to play the Sphere,
- 15:57Speaker 2: but she has to stop her global tour for three months.
- 16:00Speaker 2: She has to spend twenty million dollars of her own
- 16:02Speaker 2: money creating cartoon visuals that she can only ever use
- 16:05Speaker 2: in my specific building. Right and oh, by the way,
- 16:08Speaker 2: she can only sell seventeen thousand tickets a night instead
- 16:11Speaker 2: of the seventy thousand she sells at a football stadium.
- 16:14Speaker 1: I laugh, and I hang up the phone immediately exactly
- 16:16Speaker 1: you hang up.
- 16:17Speaker 2: The math is completely impossible for a current touring superstar, So.
- 16:22Speaker 1: That rules out basically everyone currently on the Billboard charts.
- 16:25Speaker 2: It rules out almost all active touring acts, which leaves
- 16:28Speaker 2: the venue with one very specific category, the residency.
- 16:33Speaker 1: Right where they just stay put.
- 16:34Speaker 2: You need an artist who is willing to park themselves
- 16:37Speaker 2: in Vegas for weeks or even months just to amortize
- 16:40Speaker 2: that twenty million dollar production cost over enough shows to
- 16:44Speaker 2: make a profit.
- 16:45Speaker 1: And according to our sources, that limits the pool to
- 16:48Speaker 1: what the music industry calls heritage.
- 16:49Speaker 2: Acts exactly dad rock. Basically, you two the Eagles, Dead
- 16:54Speaker 2: and Company.
- 16:55Speaker 1: Fish bands with very specific demographics, bans with.
- 16:58Speaker 2: Wealthy, older f bases who will willingly fly to Vegas,
- 17:03Speaker 2: stay in a nice, expensive hotel, and pay five hundred
- 17:06Speaker 2: to one thousand dollars for a single ticket.
- 17:08Speaker 1: But there are only so many of those bands left.
- 17:10Speaker 1: You can't just clone Bono.
- 17:12Speaker 2: That is the crisis the venue is facing. Once you
- 17:15Speaker 2: run through U two and the Eagles and maybe Bruce
- 17:18Speaker 2: Springsteen who was next?
- 17:19Speaker 1: Right? The bench is not that deep.
- 17:20Speaker 2: The pipeline is incredibly thin. You need a band that
- 17:24Speaker 2: is huge enough to sell out eighteen thousand seats for
- 17:27Speaker 2: twenty consecutive nights, but simultaneously not busy enough to be
- 17:31Speaker 2: doing a global stadium tour.
- 17:33Speaker 1: That is a very very small event diagram.
- 17:35Speaker 2: It's tiny and because of this, the sphere is only
- 17:38Speaker 2: actually utilized roughly thirty three percent of the year.
- 17:41Speaker 1: Well only thirty three percent.
- 17:42Speaker 2: They only have about one hundred to one hundred and
- 17:44Speaker 2: twenty event nights a year with actual live music.
- 17:47Speaker 1: So what happens when you can't find a band? What
- 17:50Speaker 1: happens on a random Tuesday in November when the Eagles
- 17:52Speaker 1: aren't in town.
- 17:53Speaker 2: That is what the industry calls the dark night problem.
- 17:57Speaker 2: In a normal arena like t Mobile Arena, if there
- 17:59Speaker 2: is no major concert, they just book a hockey game
- 18:02Speaker 2: the Golden Knights.
- 18:03Speaker 1: Play right, or college basketball.
- 18:05Speaker 2: If no hockey, maybe a large corporate convention, maybe a
- 18:10Speaker 2: monster truck rally.
- 18:11Speaker 1: Can you put monster trucks in the sphere?
- 18:13Speaker 2: Absolutely not. The floor space is way too small, There
- 18:17Speaker 2: is no exhaust ventilation for the fumes, and again, the
- 18:20Speaker 2: logistics just do not work. It's too specialized of a room.
- 18:23Speaker 1: So when there isn't a megaband, the sphere just sits there.
- 18:26Speaker 2: It sits there, and it burns money. So to plug
- 18:29Speaker 2: that massive scheduling hole, they commissioned a movie.
- 18:32Speaker 1: Right, the Darren Aronofski film Postcard from Earth.
- 18:37Speaker 2: Visually it is stunning. Everyone says it's an incredible piece
- 18:41Speaker 2: of art, but economically, economically, it's a disaster waiting to happen.
- 18:44Speaker 1: I though a movie seems like a really smart way
- 18:47Speaker 1: to fill the downtime. It's relatively cheap to run once
- 18:50Speaker 1: it's already made, Right, you just press play.
- 18:52Speaker 2: It works for a few months, but you have to
- 18:54Speaker 2: think about the core Las Vegas economy. Vegas runs entirely
- 18:58Speaker 2: on repeat customers. Okay, you go to the casino, you
- 19:01Speaker 2: play blackjack, lose, You come back later that night to
- 19:03Speaker 2: win it back. You go watch the Bolaggio fountains because
- 19:06Speaker 2: they are free and beautiful and part of the vibe.
- 19:09Speaker 1: But nobody pays one hundred dollars to see the exact
- 19:12Speaker 1: same documentary movie twice.
- 19:14Speaker 2: Exactly. It is a one and done experience. Once you
- 19:17Speaker 2: have seen the giant elephant walk across the screen, in
- 19:20Speaker 2: sixteen k you get the gimmick.
- 19:22Speaker 1: You check the box, and you move on.
- 19:24Speaker 2: You aren't going back next year on your next Vegas trip,
- 19:28Speaker 2: and we are already seeing the demand for the movie
- 19:30Speaker 2: soften significantly. Really, ticket prices for the movie have actively
- 19:34Speaker 2: dropped from around one hundred and nineteen dollars down to
- 19:37Speaker 2: ninety nine dollars. Revenue for these film showings is dipping
- 19:41Speaker 2: in recent quarters. You simply run out of first time
- 19:44Speaker 2: viewers eventually, so.
- 19:45Speaker 1: You have a venue that is incredibly hard to book
- 19:47Speaker 1: for live music and the filler movie content is actively
- 19:51Speaker 1: losing steam. Yes, this feels like the perfect time to
- 19:55Speaker 1: transition into the third section and talk about the actual money,
- 19:58Speaker 1: because all of these engineering problems and content problems, they
- 20:01Speaker 1: eventually turn into hard numbers on a spreadsheet.
- 20:02Speaker 2: And the numbers are terrifying.
- 20:04Speaker 1: Let's look at the neighborhood. The sphere is in. You
- 20:07Speaker 1: mentioned T Mobile Arena earlier. You've got the MGM Grand nearby.
- 20:11Speaker 1: How do those traditional buildings make money compared to the sphere.
- 20:15Speaker 2: This is the critical piece of context that explains the
- 20:18Speaker 2: whole Vegas ecosystem. In Las Vegas, the concert venue itself
- 20:22Speaker 2: is often what we call a loss leader.
- 20:25Speaker 1: Explain that concept for us.
- 20:26Speaker 2: MGM doesn't necessarily care if they make a massive profit
- 20:30Speaker 2: on the Lady Gaga concert ticket itself. They just want
- 20:33Speaker 2: fifteen thousand people to physically walk through the front doors
- 20:36Speaker 2: of the MGM Grand property.
- 20:38Speaker 1: Because ones they are an inside.
- 20:39Speaker 2: Because before the show and after the show, those exact
- 20:43Speaker 2: people are going to eat expensive dinners at the restaurants,
- 20:46Speaker 2: they are going to drink twenty dollars cocktails at the bars,
- 20:49Speaker 2: and most importantly, they are going to gamble in the casino.
- 20:52Speaker 1: So the concert is basically just the bait on the hook.
- 20:54Speaker 2: Correct. The venue itself is subsidized by the entire resort
- 20:58Speaker 2: ecosystem surrounding it. Arena just breaks even. The hotel property
- 21:02Speaker 2: makes millions of dollars that night. And the sphere the
- 21:04Speaker 2: sphere is a total island. It has no hotel attached
- 21:08Speaker 2: to it, It has no casino, it has no sit
- 21:11Speaker 2: down restaurants of its own, really just standard concession stands.
- 21:15Speaker 1: Wait, how do you build a two point three billion
- 21:18Speaker 1: dollar building in Las Vegas and forget to put in
- 21:21Speaker 1: a single slot machine. That seems like total malpractice.
- 21:24Speaker 2: It was a very deliberate strategic choice or perhaps massive hubris.
- 21:29Speaker 2: The management believed the ticket sales alone would sustain the building.
- 21:32Speaker 1: But that means all the pressure is on the ticket.
- 21:34Speaker 2: It means the Sphere has to survive on exactly three
- 21:37Speaker 2: things ticket sales, sponsorships, and those ads on the outside
- 21:41Speaker 2: of the.
- 21:41Speaker 1: Building the exosphere the giant emoji face that sells car commercials.
- 21:46Speaker 2: Right, so every single seat inside has to be wildly profitable.
- 21:50Speaker 2: There is no back end casino revenue to save them.
- 21:53Speaker 2: And this is exactly where the U two precedent comes
- 21:55Speaker 2: back to haunt them.
- 21:56Speaker 1: I've heard about this part. The deal you two got
- 21:59Speaker 1: to open the building was let's say generous.
- 22:01Speaker 2: Generous is an understatement. It was a complete robbery. You
- 22:05Speaker 2: two and their management knew they were the only band
- 22:08Speaker 2: on Earth that could realistically pull off the grand opening
- 22:11Speaker 2: of this highly technical building. They had absolutely all the
- 22:14Speaker 2: leverage in the negotiation, So what do they ask for?
- 22:17Speaker 2: Reports suggest you two negotiated a deal where they took
- 22:21Speaker 2: ninety percent of the gross ticket revenue.
- 22:24Speaker 1: I'm sorry, did you just say ninety nine.
- 22:26Speaker 2: Zero ninety percent to the band that leaves the Sphere
- 22:29Speaker 2: with ten percent of the gate.
- 22:31Speaker 1: That is just insane. Usually a promoter splits things, maybe
- 22:35Speaker 1: seventy thirty, or they guarantee a flat fee. Yeah, but
- 22:38Speaker 1: ninety percent. How do you even pay the electric bill
- 22:40Speaker 1: with ten percent of the tickets?
- 22:41Speaker 2: You don't? You actively lose money. In speaking of the
- 22:44Speaker 2: electric bill, let's talk about the operating costs for a minute.
- 22:47Speaker 1: Please do, because I can't imagine what a cost to
- 22:49Speaker 1: run that screen.
- 22:50Speaker 2: You are running the largest LED screen on planet Earth,
- 22:53Speaker 2: twenty four hours a day, seven days a week.
- 22:56Speaker 1: Some fun just to keep the lights on, just.
- 23:04Speaker 2: For electricity, plus the cooling. All those supercomputer servers generate
- 23:09Speaker 2: massive amounts of heat. The HVAC bill is astronomical.
- 23:14Speaker 1: I didn't even think about the heat from the screens.
- 23:16Speaker 2: Plus the staff. Remember we talked about the tech earlier.
- 23:18Speaker 2: These aren't just normal roadies pushing heavy crates around.
- 23:21Speaker 1: You need it, guys.
- 23:23Speaker 2: You need Silicon Valley level software engineers to run this building.
- 23:28Speaker 2: You need GPU specialists, you need LED calibration experts. These
- 23:32Speaker 2: people command massive salaries. They do not work for minimum wage.
- 23:36Speaker 1: So you have the highest overhead in the entire live
- 23:39Speaker 1: entertainment industry, and you simultaneously gave away ninety percent of
- 23:43Speaker 1: your revenue to the band.
- 23:44Speaker 2: Correct, And now every other band knows exactly what you
- 23:47Speaker 2: two got, So when the Eagles sit down to negotiate,
- 23:50Speaker 2: they say, well, you two got ninety percent, why should
- 23:52Speaker 2: we take fifty percent?
- 23:53Speaker 1: The venue is trapped.
- 23:54Speaker 2: The venue has zero leverage. It absolutely needs the big
- 23:58Speaker 2: stars to justify the existence of the expensive screen. It
- 24:01Speaker 2: is completely trapped by its own business model.
- 24:03Speaker 1: So bottom line, how much cash is this thing actually losing?
- 24:06Speaker 2: In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, they reported
- 24:09Speaker 2: an operating loss of one hundred and forty two point nine.
- 24:13Speaker 1: Million dollars in one quarter.
- 24:15Speaker 2: Yes, for the full fiscal year twenty twenty five, the
- 24:18Speaker 2: operating loss was two hundred and twenty nine point six
- 24:21Speaker 2: million dollars.
- 24:23Speaker 1: Nearly a quarter of a billion dollars in one year.
- 24:25Speaker 2: And the total accumulated losses since inception are now over
- 24:29Speaker 2: five hundred and seventy million dollars.
- 24:31Speaker 1: Half a billion dollars is just gone gone.
- 24:33Speaker 2: And remember the parent company, Sphere Entertainment, was spun off
- 24:37Speaker 2: from Madison Square Garden, but they are still carrying billions
- 24:40Speaker 2: in debt to build this thing. This isn't just a
- 24:42Speaker 2: slow start for a new business. This is a massive
- 24:45Speaker 2: cash incinerator.
- 24:46Speaker 1: But James Dole in the CEO, he isn't coming out
- 24:49Speaker 1: and saying, hey, guys, I messed up? Is he? Because
- 24:51Speaker 1: I feel like I keep seeing these financial headlines saying
- 24:54Speaker 1: fear reports positive income.
- 24:56Speaker 2: Ah, yes the spin. This brings us to section four
- 25:00Speaker 2: in corporate finance. When the real numbers are very, very bad,
- 25:04Speaker 2: you simply invent new numbers. The Wall Street Dolan loves
- 25:07Speaker 2: to push a metric called adjusted operating income.
- 25:09Speaker 1: I love adjusted numbers. It's basically like saying, if you
- 25:12Speaker 1: ignore the fact that I crashed my car and lost
- 25:14Speaker 1: my job, my years actually going great.
- 25:16Speaker 2: That is a very accurate analogy. Adjusted operating income allows
- 25:19Speaker 2: the company to strip out things they don't want you
- 25:22Speaker 2: to focus on, like share based compensation and crucially depreciation.
- 25:26Speaker 1: Let's explain depreciation in this specific context because usually for
- 25:30Speaker 1: a building, that's just a paper tax ride off. Right.
- 25:33Speaker 2: For a normal brick building, Sure, a concrete arena lasts
- 25:37Speaker 2: for fifty or sixty years, it depreciates very slowly over decades, right.
- 25:42Speaker 2: But the sphere is not concrete. The sphere is pure technology.
- 25:46Speaker 2: It is five hundred and eighty thousand square feet of
- 25:50Speaker 2: LED diodes exposed to the desert sun. Do you know
- 25:53Speaker 2: how fast LED's age.
- 25:54Speaker 1: Well, my flat screen TV looks a little dim after
- 25:56Speaker 1: about five.
- 25:57Speaker 2: Years, exactly tech ages in dog years. That exterior screen
- 26:01Speaker 2: is actively going to burn out. It will constantly need
- 26:04Speaker 2: panels replaced. The rendering servers will be completely obsolete in.
- 26:08Speaker 1: Three to five years, So it's a recurring cost.
- 26:10Speaker 2: The depreciation on the sphere is a very real, very
- 26:14Speaker 2: heavy cash expense that is coming down the track like
- 26:17Speaker 2: a freight train. Ignoring it is an accounting magic trick.
- 26:20Speaker 1: It's hiding the reality.
- 26:22Speaker 2: It makes the business look vaguely viable today only by
- 26:25Speaker 2: ignoring the fact that the building is rotting vastly faster
- 26:28Speaker 2: than a normal arena.
- 26:30Speaker 1: So if the Vegas standalone model is broken, what is
- 26:34Speaker 1: the master plan? Because I remember a few years ago
- 26:36Speaker 1: they were going to build these things everywhere, total world domination.
- 26:39Speaker 2: That was absolutely the plan, a sphere in every major
- 26:43Speaker 2: global city, London, Dubai, Soul. But that massive expansion plan
- 26:47Speaker 2: hit a very hard wall. Specifically, it hit a.
- 26:49Speaker 1: Wall in London, right city Coon, the Mayor of London
- 26:52Speaker 1: blocked it.
- 26:53Speaker 2: He did, and the reason was fascinating. It wasn't just
- 26:55Speaker 2: traffic or infrastructure concerns. It was light pollution and fair
- 26:59Speaker 2: enough on the the residence of Stratford, of which is
- 27:02Speaker 2: the neighborhood where they wanted to build it. They looked
- 27:05Speaker 2: at photos of Vegas. They saw that glowing yellow eyeball
- 27:08Speaker 2: and said, absolutely not.
- 27:09Speaker 1: I don't like that.
- 27:10Speaker 2: We do not want a permanent artificial sun shining directly
- 27:13Speaker 2: into our apartment bedrooms at three in the morning.
- 27:16Speaker 1: It turns out normal everyday people actually like darkness when
- 27:20Speaker 1: they sleep. Who knew?
- 27:22Speaker 2: And that rejection completely kills the scalability of the entire
- 27:26Speaker 2: business model. If you can only legally build these things
- 27:30Speaker 2: in the middle of a neon desert where nobody lives,
- 27:33Speaker 2: your potential market is very very limited.
- 27:36Speaker 1: So now what are they just giving up?
- 27:38Speaker 2: Now? They are pivoting, pivoting to what exactly mini spheres.
- 27:41Speaker 2: They are currently talking about building much smaller versions, maybe
- 27:45Speaker 2: only six thousand seats instead of eighteen thousand in places
- 27:48Speaker 2: like National Harbor near DC. Okay, smaller might be cheaper
- 27:51Speaker 2: or franchising one in Abi Dhabi.
- 27:54Speaker 1: Franchising like opening a McDonald's.
- 27:56Speaker 2: Basically, yes, in the Abu Dhabi deal, the local partner
- 27:59Speaker 2: would put up all the actual money to build it.
- 28:02Speaker 2: Dolan just provides the brand name and the software tech,
- 28:05Speaker 2: so it shifts the risk. It dramatically lowers his financial risk.
- 28:08Speaker 2: But it's also a quiet admission that the original grand model,
- 28:11Speaker 2: the whole I build it, I own it, I profit
- 28:13Speaker 2: idea simply does not work.
- 28:15Speaker 1: I want to ask you the really dark question now
- 28:17Speaker 1: the Vegas Vault prediction from our sources, Yeah, what happens
- 28:21Speaker 1: if this thing never actually turns a profit? What does
- 28:24Speaker 1: the Las Vegas fear become in ten years?
- 28:27Speaker 2: That is the exact question haunting Wall Street right now.
- 28:30Speaker 2: If the operational losses continue and the massive debt becomes unmanageable,
- 28:35Speaker 2: it eventually becomes a distressed asset.
- 28:38Speaker 1: But who buys a distressed giant glowing ball?
- 28:41Speaker 2: Maybe a tech billionaire wants a massive vanity trophy. Hey, look,
- 28:45Speaker 2: I own this sphere like buying a sports team exactly.
- 28:48Speaker 2: But the much darker timeline is that it literally becomes
- 28:52Speaker 2: a museum of failed ambition, a museum. Imagine it. The
- 28:55Speaker 2: interior screens are turned off because the electric bill is
- 28:58Speaker 2: just too high to run them, or or maybe they
- 29:00Speaker 2: just run cheap ads for Coca Cola twenty four to seven.
- 29:02Speaker 2: You pay twenty bucks to walk in, look at the
- 29:04Speaker 2: weird architecture, maybe buy a T shirt in the lobby,
- 29:07Speaker 2: and leave.
- 29:08Speaker 1: Wow.
- 29:08Speaker 2: No more live concerts, just a hollow, giant shell.
- 29:11Speaker 1: The world's most expensive physical billboard.
- 29:14Speaker 2: It is a very distinct possibility. Management is relying incredibly
- 29:18Speaker 2: heavily on the Eagles residency to carry them through twenty
- 29:21Speaker 2: twenty six because they simply don't have anyone else lined up.
- 29:24Speaker 2: After that.
- 29:25Speaker 1: The bench is empty.
- 29:26Speaker 2: If that Heritage Act pipeline dries up, the lights might
- 29:30Speaker 2: literally go out.
- 29:31Speaker 1: This has been such a fascinating look at the massive
- 29:34Speaker 1: gap between what is cool and what is profitable. I
- 29:39Speaker 1: think we often assume that just because something is highly
- 29:42Speaker 1: advanced and inherently means it's better.
- 29:43Speaker 2: We really do. We culturally worship technology. But the sphere
- 29:47Speaker 2: is a massive flashing reminder that sometimes the boring traditional
- 29:51Speaker 2: solution is actually the best one. A boring rectangular box,
- 29:54Speaker 2: a boring rectangular concrete box costs maybe five hundred million
- 29:59Speaker 2: dollars to build. It easily hosts hockey, basketball, Disney on Ice,
- 30:03Speaker 2: Monster Trucks, and Taylor Swift all in the same week.
- 30:06Speaker 1: It is a Swiss army knife.
- 30:07Speaker 2: It is entirely flexible, and the.
- 30:09Speaker 1: Sphere is a diamond encrusted.
- 30:11Speaker 2: Scalpel that you can only use once a week for
- 30:13Speaker 2: very specific surgeries. In business, flexibility almost always beats complexity.
- 30:19Speaker 2: The Sphere is the ultimate test of immersive entertainment, and
- 30:23Speaker 2: so far the financial results clearly say it's too expensive,
- 30:26Speaker 2: it's too fragile, and it's just too hard to run.
- 30:28Speaker 1: I want to leave all of our listeners with a
- 30:30Speaker 1: final thought to chew on. The Next time you are
- 30:33Speaker 1: scrolling and you see that massive glowing orb on Instagram
- 30:37Speaker 1: looking absolutely magnificent, ask yourself a simple question.
- 30:40Speaker 2: Ask yourself. Is that massive screen turned on because it
- 30:44Speaker 2: is actually making money or is it turned on just
- 30:46Speaker 2: to prove to the investors that it still works.
- 30:48Speaker 1: Is it a viable business or is it a two
- 30:51Speaker 1: point three billion dollar night light?
- 30:53Speaker 2: That is the multi billion dollar question.
- 30:55Speaker 1: That's it for this deep dive. Thanks for listening and
- 30:57Speaker 1: we'll see you next time.
- 30:58Speaker 2: Thanks everyone,