Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Predictable Plays | MLB & WNBA | 9/23/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | Predictable Plays | MLB & WNBA | 9/23/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your hand. Now you
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure. Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: Down, baby. Look at me now Hold on, hold on
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: Not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: pull you out That fella fights hard But he don't
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: get the crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports. Wednesday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: September 23rd. 2-0 on the show yesterday. We did get
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: really lucky with the Houston-Seattle under. I mean, that was...
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the starting pitchers were like barely in that game. Logan
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Gilbert was not good. So we probably should not have
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: won that game. Uh, Javier was out of the game
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: in like the third inning. So Houston was going with
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game for like the rest of the game. Dude,
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: these late season MLB games really, really difficult to predict.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know who was calling me. What the hell
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: is that? I have no idea who's calling me right now. Anyway, um, Yeah,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: late-season MLB, really difficult to figure out because you have
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: to look at motivation. You have to realize that the
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: pitchers might get swapped out or something weird might... Houston, though,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: they have the motivation. Of course, I was right about
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: the Houston side in that game, and that would have
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: been the way better way to play it. I didn't
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: expect Javier... I don't know if he got hurt. I
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: didn't expect him to only go two innings in the game.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: And he didn't pitch poorly, so I don't know why
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: he was out that early. But luckily, we still got
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: the win with that one. um I don't know what
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: to tell you uh we got lucky with that one
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: um the other under that I was going to have
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: between San Diego and LA like I said uh you
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: had to pick either Yamamoto or Snell starting the game
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: for the Dodgers that did not happen but the game
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: still went under so if you actually did still play
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: you still won but I'm not counting that as a
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: win here it was a no play on the show
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: uh Dodgers won with a bullpen game, and they still
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: wound up shutting out San Diego. And King, I don't think,
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: was that good in the game. Whatever. And then we
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: did get the win with the WNBA. My WNBA reads
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: were really good yesterday. Portland won outright. Indiana won. But
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: we did at least we got the one right that
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: we had a play on with Connecticut. Connecticut wire-to-wire cover
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: on that one. It was pretty much what I expected.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: It was an ugly game, low scoring. I think it
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: was close to tied at halftime. Connecticut did fall behind
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: by 14 late as the 16-and-a-half point favorite, but they
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: were able to just hang within that number at the end,
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: and they wound up, I think, losing by 10. But
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Washington did not score enough to really have a chance
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: to cover that. I mean, they technically did have a
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: chance to cover it near the end because Connecticut's offense
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: is so bad, but Washington only put up like 70-whatever points,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: so that is not a recipe for covering a huge
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: number like that. And Connecticut actually out-rebounded them significantly. in
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: the game. So maybe the game should have been closer
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: than the final was probably. Yeah, it should have Connecticut
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: had a ton of turnovers of Washington had very few.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: So that was the one reason why Washington was able
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: to win by double digits. All right, we'll move on
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: to today. Three plays on the show today, uh, in baseball,
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: they're probably predictable. As I've said in the title here,
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: like these are very me plays, uh, Hopefully we get
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: at least two of the three right. We have an
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: afternoon game between Washington and Detroit. Not exactly sure why,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: but I know this is the end of this particular series.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure these teams have split the two games
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: in the series. Neither team is going anywhere. This is
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: going to be a really difficult game to predict. The
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: teams will move on and they have another series to start.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: I think they don't play tomorrow. I think they play
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: on Friday, but I could be wrong about that. I
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: think Washington is playing the Mets next. I don't know
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: if That's going to be any cause for a look
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: ahead because the Mets have not had a good season.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: We know that Washington is not a good bullpen. They
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: used three guys out of their bullpen yesterday. Detroit also
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: used three. Washington's bullpen is ranked 27th in WIP. Detroit
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: is 13th. Washington is the better offense. They're number three
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: in OPS. Detroit is number 14. Washington's going with a
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: bullpen game here because they have Richard Lovelady. Dude, what
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: is he, a porn actor? Yeah, hey, I'm Dick Lovelady.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what else to say. It speaks
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: for itself. He's a relief pitcher, so this is going
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: to be a bullpen game for Washington here. His whip
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: is terrible, by the way, and that is not any
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: innuendo there. He is better on the road, I guess,
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: but I would not trust this guy. Yeah. I got
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: nothing else to say. It's a bullpen game for Washington.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: I think their pitching is going to be ass in
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: this game. Franbervaldez, who at least is an actual starter,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: is apparently starting for Detroit. 4.06 ERA, 1.36 whip. He's
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: not had the greatest season here. Not awful, but not
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: good either. He's slightly better at home with a 4
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: home ERA. His home road splits are really insignificant, though.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: His issue is walks. I mean, he's pitched all right
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: over his last handful of starts here. He's not doing
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: that badly. Not killing his team, although he's not getting
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: a lot of run support at all. Maybe he will
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: here against Washington's terrible pitching setup, though. His hit rate's
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: not really that good this year, though. His walk rate
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: is too high. His strikeout rate's not good this year,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: so he really hasn't had that good of a season.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: Two strikeout walk ratios, like the worst that he's ever posted,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: not good. His strikeout per nine has gone way down, 6.9,
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: so I don't know what's going on with him because
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: he wasn't really that bad with Houston, but I would
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: prefer him in this game over Washington's, whatever the hell
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: they're doing. Washington has five guys who have faced Valdez.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: They're only one for 15 off him. Ruiz with the
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: only hit, which is a single, six strikeouts, two walks.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: That's an 067 average, a 243 OPS. So I would
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: rather have Valdez in this matchup than whatever Washington is doing.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: Like I said, the money doesn't agree. Detroit, 85% of tickets,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: 82% of the cash on them. They're around minus 180
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: on the price. But I would not try to back
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: Washington here. Why would you back a bad bullpen that's
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: going to be pitching the whole game Um, it makes
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: no sense. And the total is really low too. It's
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. I don't get what's going on
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: with this total either. It looks like the money is
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: kind of coming in on the over. Yeah. I mean,
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: this pitching setup does not look like it's very like
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: conducive to pitching. I don't know what to tell you
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: this total. I mean, the odds makers know what they're
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: doing though. Like they're not going to, they're not going
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: to put up a number that's like that bad intentionally.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Like, I mean, I don't
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: know what they're doing here, but that total really surprised me.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: I expected the total in this game to be at
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: least eight and a half. So I don't know what's
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: going on with that total. Perhaps the over makes sense here,
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: but when the odds figures are telling you something unexpected
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: like that, I don't really like to go against what
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: they're telling you.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, the public's all over Detroit though. So yeah,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: Play this game at your own peril, I guess. But
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: I think Detroit somehow should get away with the win here.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: Detroit is still the better overall team. Like, they have
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: a better run differential, I'm pretty sure, than Washington. So,
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Like, you'd have to lay a minus
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: one run line with Detroit, though, and they might not
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: bat in the ninth inning and whatever. But them not
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: batting in the ninth inning means they're winning. So, if
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: you have a minus one, you won't lose the bat.
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: You'll at least push it. I don't know. Dirty Sock,
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: what's up? Yes, thank you. Which, oh, you mean on
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: the six and a halves? Well, the one that lost
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: was the Cubs and Marlins. Did you see how that
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: game lost? That was 2-2 at the end of nine innings.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: That under should obviously have hit. And then the Marlins
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: scored six fucking runs in extra innings. The game went
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: 12 innings, or it might have been 1-1 at the
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: end of nine. I don't even know what it was,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: but the Marlins... scored at least six runs and extra
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: innings in that game. So, yeah, that's what happened in
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: that game. The Red Sox game went under, and then
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: I forget what the other one was. Oh, the, well,
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: I don't think, did the Yankees, I said first five
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: under in the Yankees-Rays game two. I'm not sure if
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: that hit or not. Rasmussen was really good in the game,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: but Freed I don't think was that good. The first
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Yankee-Rays game did go under, so that one was a
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: correct opinion. I don't know. I felt like maybe I
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: think I handicapped the board wrong yesterday. I felt like
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: I was not seeing it well, and I picked the
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: wrong game, but it was a lucky win anyway. Can't
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: get away with it all the time, though. I'll take
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: the luck, but, yeah, I've got to be better at this.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Toronto-Baltimore got rained out yesterday, so they're playing a doubleheader.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: We have no idea who's pitching in game two. Game
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: one is in the afternoon, of course. It's the same
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup that I handicapped yesterday. I don't even know
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: if I need to go into this in detail because
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: I did go over it yesterday. Scherzer against Bassett. They're
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: both awful. They both have bad numbers against the opposing
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: offenses here. Bassett is better at home, so I will
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: give him that. I didn't necessarily want to fade. The
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: reason why I didn't want to take the over yesterday
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: was because Bassett is better as a home pitcher, and
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: these offenses both reek. And also... I mean, if I
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: was not going to play the over yesterday, I'm not
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: going to do it today either because now these teams
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: have an extra day of rest, which can cool off
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: the offenses more. And these are not good offenses. And
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: the bullpens get another day of rest, which is definitely
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: going to help Toronto because they used a bunch of
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: guys the day before that. So I am not going
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: to do it. I will still lean over in this game.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: But the other thing that worries me about this is,
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: The total that the oddsmakers put up here is like 7, 7.5.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: So when they do that, they're telling you it's not
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: going to be that high scoring of a game in
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: their eyes. Where is this game? What the fuck? Oh,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: it's on the extra games here, whatever. The total, yeah,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: it's 7, 7.5, just like it was yesterday. The money
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: is packing the under, it looks like. 82% of tickets,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: 67% of the cash on the over. Yeah, I would
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: only play the over in this one. I don't trust
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: either pitcher, but again, I don't trust the offenses either.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: So that's what you got going on here. These two
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: teams are still fighting for the last wildcard spot. So
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: what happened yesterday was the Rays clinched the AL East.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: They only needed to win one more game to clinch
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: the AL East, and they were able to do that
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: in the night game behind Rasmussen, their best pitcher, of course.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: The Yankees clinched the number one wildcard spot. The Red
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: Sox are, I believe, guaranteed the number two wildcard spot now.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: So the AL is now in a situation where the
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: last wildcard spot could go to Toronto, Baltimore, either Cleveland
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: or the White Sox. And I think it's the White
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: Sox right now. They're actually leading in that spot. And
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: Houston or Texas. Um, so whoever doesn't win those two divisions,
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: that's what we got going on here. So Baltimore and
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: Toronto still technically fighting for that last wildcard spot, even
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: though it's unlikely that they're going to get it. Like
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: it's pretty likely it's going to be whoever comes in
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: second in the central is going to get that wildcard spot,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: which would be the white socks right now. Um, but yeah,
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: these teams are going to be motivated though, to show
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: up here. Baltimore has 71% of tickets, 63% of cash
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: on them. at about minus 120-something. So the money is
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: fading Baltimore and Chris Bassett here. I am not so
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: sure I would agree. I mean, Scherzer has had the
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: better career. There's no doubt about that. But you're talking
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: about a 42-year-old Max Scherzer who has not been good
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: this year. So I don't know. Is he still better
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: than Bassett at this point? Like I said, I don't
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: want to try to figure out the side here. Baltimore
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: won the first game of the series two days ago. Yeah,
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, to me, that game isn't over or past
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: the game. Game two, we have no idea what's happening.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Game two, the number is really simple. The total is 8-8.5
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: in game two, and the price on the side is
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: about the same, minus 120-something. The money is back in
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: the over in game two. for whatever reason um well
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: it's probably the same reason that I do it like
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: when you see a doubleheader game two I lean overs
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: in game two a lot of time because the bullpen
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: usage might be high in game one but I don't
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: want to blindly play a game two you know what
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: I mean um but yeah because the bullpen usage might
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: be high in game one maybe game two makes sense
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: to look for an over but You're also still looking
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: at bad offenses here. You're looking at bullpens that at
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: least got to rest yesterday, plus they're expanded bullpens because
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: it's September. There are more arms in there. So I'm
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: not going to blindly recommend it over in this game.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: The money is also slightly on Baltimore for some reason.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: No idea what's going to happen in game two, so
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: I won't be handicapping it. I mean, it is what
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: it is. As far as the bullpens, Baltimore's number 11,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: Toronto's number 17, but Toronto has the better ERA. They're
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: both pretty good bullpens. Baltimore is 22nd offensively, and Toronto's 28th. So, yeah,
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: not good offenses, like I said. Minnesota, San Francisco, two
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: teams not going anywhere. These teams have split the series
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: so far, with Minnesota winning the game yesterday. I think
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: behind Taj Bradley, I want to say, which I think
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: that made sense that that was the outcome in that game.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: We have a battle of guys with the same initials here.
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: Connor Prelip against Cesar Perdomo. I'm not going to even
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: say the initials because it's also too Epstein-esque. So I'm
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: not going to do it. I'm not going to do it.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: What's going to happen in this game? I have no idea, dude.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's pitcher is kind of the more proven one because
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: we've seen more of him. Minnesota's bullpen is bad, so
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: I would not want to back them. They used four
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: guys yesterday. San Francisco used two. Minnesota is the worst
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: of these two not-so-good bullpens. Minnesota's number 29, San Francisco 24.
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think either bullpen is quite as bad as
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: those rankings, but I don't like these bullpens. San Francisco's
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: is the The one that is sometimes backable, I would
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: say Minnesota's I would say I would never back. San
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: Francisco's a bad offense. They're number 21. They're not good
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: at home. Minnesota is number 15, tied with the Yankees
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: right now. Connor Prelip, like I alluded to, or I
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: said it outright, he's starting for Minnesota here. He's been okay.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: This has been his rookie season, I believe. 4.94 ERA, 1.3 whip.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: He's not as good on the road, though. 5.46 road ERA. However,
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: this is a pitcher-friendly stadium, and he's facing a pretty
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: weak offense here. And he's coming off a really good
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: road outing against another weak offense against Anaheim. He's able
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: to pitch against bad offenses on the road. He's been
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: in decent form this month. He's got a 2.11 ERA
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: this month. Minnesota's won three of his four starts, 19-3
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. So I do like the way that
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: he's currently pitching, recently at least. His hit rate on
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: the season is not great. It's all right. His walk
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: rate is not excellent. His strikeout rate is actually pretty good, though.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: So he is able to strike guys out. His numbers
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: really aren't that bad overall, though a three strikeout walk
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: ratio is not that bad. 9.3 strikeout per nine is
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: pretty good. Prelip against the Giants, only Marcelo Meyer has
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: ever faced him back when he was on the Red Sox,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: I assume. He's 0 for 1 against him with a
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout and an RBI and no walks. So Prelip is
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to this whole offense pretty much, which should give
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: him a little bit of an extra edge, I would say.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: The unfamiliarity tends to be a good thing for these
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: pitchers as long as they're good. Cesar Perdomo is pitching
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: for the Giants. I tried to back him a couple
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: games ago and it did not go well. He's got
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: a 3.72 ERA so far, but a 1.5 whip is
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: definitely not good. He's made three starts, four appearances in
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: what has been his first season in the majors and
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: the Giants have lost all four of his starts. although
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: he's had some difficult opponents to face here. Pittsburgh on
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: the road, that was a relief appearance, and I actually
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: liked how he did in that game. He pitched well
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: against a good Pittsburgh offense, and then he did face
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers most recently, and he was not great in
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: that start, but he wasn't the reason why they lost, really, though,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: in that game. The one bad start he had was
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: the one where I tried to back him against San Diego,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: so that's great, although his last two starts, he hasn't
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: made it five innings in either of them, I mean,
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: he's given up too many hits, his walk rate is mediocre,
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is low as well, so those numbers
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: are not good, I don't trust him really, 1.7 strikeout
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is definitely way too low, 5.6 strikeout per nine,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: that's bad, like, That's almost like you're not even going
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: to be able to stick in the league if you
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: don't strike out guys at a higher rate than that,
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: unless there are other things about your game that are
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: really good, which for him, maybe that's not the case.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: But it's all early in his career, man. And his
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout number was good after his first two outings, or
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: at least decent. Minnesota's never faced him before, so he
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: has unfamiliarity. I don't know if that's going to be enough.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: I would prefer Minnesota in this one, but the money
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: completely disagrees with me here. 68% of tickets on Minnesota,
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: 70% of the cash on San Francisco. I don't understand it.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: Other than maybe Minnesota shouldn't be favored by this much
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: on the road, minus 150. I don't know. Prelip is
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: more proven. I like the way he's pitching recently. He's
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: in the better position. form. I think if I played
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: this game, I would lay the half run with Minnesota
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: in the first five. I would not want to back
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: their bullpen, of course. I think that's the way to
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: play this game. The money is also backing the over
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: seven and a half or eight, it looks like in
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: that game. I don't have a great opinion on the
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: total in that one. I just think pre-lip should be
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: the better of the two he's just the more proven
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: pitcher here man so Minnesota first five would be my
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: opinion in that game yes you're talking about Miami scoring
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: a bunch of runs and extra innings yeah that's what
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: happened in that game the next game up will be
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: a play that I'm going to give out on the
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: show And at least these are two teams that are
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: still sort of fighting for something. They're both going to
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: be in the playoffs. Milwaukee, Philadelphia, under seven and a
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: half in this one. I like the pitching setup in
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: this one. So, of course, Logan Henderson is one of them.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: And you know, it's like I back him every time
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: he's on the mound for good reason. This guy is awesome.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: And people still don't really talk about him. But I'm
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: not going to back Milwaukee here. I'm going to back
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: the under. Philadelphia might have a little bit more reason
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: to show up because they're still in this wild card situation.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: battle here, trying to get the number one wildcard spot.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: San Diego's like right in that mix now too. So
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: it's almost guaranteed at this point, which teams are making
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: the playoffs in the national league. It's just a matter
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: of the ordering pretty much. And Milwaukee does still have
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: the one, they're still trying to get the one seed
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: against the Dodgers here, but Philly is trying to get
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: home field in the, uh, In one of the wild card.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: It looks like it's still going to be Philly and
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, although even that's not guaranteed now with that
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: first wild card matchup there, but we will see. So
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: I think Philly has a little bit more motivation here,
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: but I like both pitchers in this one. I think
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: both pitchers are going to show up here. Philly got
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: the win yesterday, 6-4, which that was, I think, Zach
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: Wheeler pitching in that game against Dustin May, I want
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: to say. Philadelphia clearly had the pitching edge in that game,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: although it was not the greatest situation for them, I
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: don't believe. Returning home from the road, but Philly used
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: four relief pitchers yesterday. They did use their closer, Duran,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: but he hadn't pitched in multiple days, so I guess
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: it's not out of the question he pitches again here.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: They didn't use much of their bullpen, though, and Milwaukee's
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: bullpen is also one of the best, and they only
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: used one long relief man yesterday. yesterday so Milwaukee's bullpen
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: sets up very nicely here they're ranked ninth but they're
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: definitely better than that I'm willing to back both bullpens
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: here even though I don't really like Phillies they're number
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: 19 but just as a whole when we get to
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: extend the game like this I think the pitchers the
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers should get us fairly deep into this game
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: I hope in my opinion and at least one of
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: the bullpens should definitely take care of business here so
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: I say we do the full game here rather than
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: the first five. I started hating the first five. It's like,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know, the way my mind works. But we
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: get the better number here on the full game. And, yeah,
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: you're going to have to pay a little bit of
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: juice for it, but whatever. As far as these offenses,
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's is the better offense. They're number four, but I
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: think better pitching can counter better hitting. Philadelphia's offense is
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: not particularly good. They're number 22 tied with Baltimore, but
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: they are– at home where they do a little bit better. However,
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: they have to deal with Logan Henderson, who has been awesome. 2.51 ERA,.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: 81 whip, although he's not quite as good on the road, 3.1
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: road ERA. I still backed him on the road in
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: his last start, and he wasn't at his best, but
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: we still got that win. Milwaukee wound up winning the
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: game in not extras. Later in the game, they wound
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: up being able to win the game. We did have
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: them full game in that one because I like their
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: bullpen as well. Henderson still has not allowed more than
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: 300 runs in any start on the entire season. Yeah,
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's been winning his games. They've won five of his
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: last six. He's pitching well, and he's doing it against
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: good offenses too, so I expect him to continue doing that.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is low. He hardly walks anybody, and
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is high as well. I mean, his
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: numbers are basically elite. 6.7 strikeout walk ratio is insane.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: That's like one of the best in baseball. 10.3 strikeout
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: per nine is pretty good as well. His whip is
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: like Mizurowski territory, man. Like these guys are young, but
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: this is a good pitching rotation with these two guys,
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: at least at the top. Phillies only have one guy
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: who's faced Henderson. Arias probably when he was on the
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: Giants faced Henderson. He's old for three often with no strikeouts,
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: no walks. So Henderson is actually unfamiliar to the Phillies.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: You have this really strong young pitcher going up against
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: a lineup that's kind of questionable that hasn't seen him before.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: I think the edge goes to the pitcher in that one,
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: so I will back Henderson, and I will back Aaron
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: Nola on the other side, even though he hasn't had
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: a great season here. 4.49 ERA, 1.35 WIP, but you
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: know what I've been saying about Nola. He's been trying
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: to bounce back from an injury that he had a
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: couple years ago. Wasn't good last year. Started pitching well
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: at the end of the year last year. This year,
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: he wasn't good for most of the season, but recently,
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: he's been way better than Although, the one concern with
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: him is he's not good at home. 5.3 home ERA.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: That does worry me a little bit, but he is
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: in good form right now. He's coming off a seven-inning
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: shutout of the Mets. Pitched well in two starts in
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: a row against the Braves prior to that. The only
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: thing that's not good about his recent numbers are his
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is not very high. The walk rate, I
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: guess you could kind of question that too, but It's
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: not that bad. He's still pitching well. He's allowed two
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: reviewer-earned runs in how many starts in a row? Is
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: this eight, I think? Yeah, eight starts in a row
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: he's allowed two reviewer-earned runs. Nola clearly is pitching a
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: lot better right now, and that's been the case since
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: late July. He started a round in a form again,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: so I think he is definitely backable here. Even though
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: his hit rate on the season isn't very good, he's
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: allowed way too many home runs. His walk rate's not
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: very good. His strikeout rate is still pretty good, though.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: He's got a 2.9 strikeout walk ratio, which at least
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: it's not horrible. Nine strikeout per nine is not bad.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Milwaukee, though, this is kind of what
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: sealed it for me. He's good against Milwaukee historically. They
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: have 149 at-bats against him, 43 strikeouts, seven walks. That's
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: a really good ratio there. 235 average loss, 665 OPS. Basically,
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: they have two guys that hit him pretty well in
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: a big sample, which is Contreras, not to be confused
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: with Wilson Contreras on the Red Sox, William Contreras, and
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: Yelich has done okay against him. But the rest of
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: this lineup has not done a whole lot against him
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: at all. So I like both pitchers here. I think
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: this game is an under, and that is what we're
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: going to go with. The money seems to agree. The
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: full game totals at 7.5, so the oddsmakers... Seem to
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: think this is going to be a pitching duel as
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: well for the most part. 75% of tickets are on
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: the over. This is the type of game the public
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: likes to play the over, man, because they think of
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: these two teams as good offenses, and they don't really
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: love these– like, they don't know who Anderson is probably,
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: and not a household name, and they probably just don't
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: love Nola. But like I said, Nola, he's a lot
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: better recently, and we have 72% of the cash on
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: the under, so I think the real money– is on
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: the under in this one. Milwaukee is favored in the
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: minus 130s. That line has dropped a little bit, but
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: they seem to be getting the money. 71% of tickets,
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: 91% of the cash on Milwaukee. I wouldn't disagree with
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee in this game. I think the pitching is better
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: on the Milwaukee side in this game throughout the whole game. So, yeah,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: I would slightly lean Milwaukee in the full game money line,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: but the under is obviously my preferred approach in that game,
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: and it is a play I'm giving out here.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: St.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Louis-Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh won the game 2-0 yesterday. Okay. Doesn't really
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: seem like a typical Pittsburgh home game. These are not
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: good bullpens, really.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: St.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: Louis, this is particularly bad. They only used two guys
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday. Pittsburgh's bullpen is mediocre, I
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: would say. They used two guys out of their bullpen yesterday.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: They did have to use guys to get the save yesterday, though.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: So some of their better arms came into the game.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's number 18. They're really not that bad out of
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: the bullpen, though. St. Louis is definitely worse. They're number 22.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: Their ERA is like half a run worse than Pittsburgh's.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is the better offense as well. They're number six.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: St.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Louis is number 26. Starting pitching, not good, I would say,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: on either side here. Matthew Liberatore is getting the start
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: for St. Louis. I mean, these teams are going nowhere,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: so You might wind up seeing runs in this game.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. Liberatore is not very good. 5.36 ERA. 1.49 whip.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: He's slightly better on the road. 5.27 road ERA. His
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: opponent batting average is better on the road, at least.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: He looks like he hasn't been that bad in his
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: last couple of starts. He gave up one run last
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: time out against San Francisco, but I would push back
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: on that because over this month, he has eight walks
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: and seven strikeouts, so that's not good. That's an inverted...
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: number there. So I don't really want much to do
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: with Libertore. And it's weird because in August, the only
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: thing good about his August was that he had good,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: he had good command numbers there. Um, good strikeout walk ratio.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: I don't trust him. His hit rate is way too
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: high on the season. Um, he's kind of home run heavy.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's not really that good. His strikeout rate
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: is decent, but that's about it. Uh, 2.7 strikeout walk
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: ratio is not great. 8.9 case per nine is all right,
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: but there's not a lot to like here. He's mostly
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: just way too hittable, and that's probably not going to
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: be good against an offense that can hit, and Pittsburgh
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: has hit him pretty well. In 71 at-bats, 282 average,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: 831 OPS, 24-6 strikeout walk ratio. So I think Pittsburgh
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: is going to score some runs this time. Pittsburgh's going
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: with a bullpen game. with Lake Bashar listed as their
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: starter although he's actually been alright his numbers are okay
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: on the season but he only goes one two innings
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: every time he's out there Pittsburgh's been winning a lot
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: of his games but I don't know if that's good
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: enough man I'm not going to go into his numbers
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: too much but he walks too many guys that's his
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: one problem And the other issue I have is that St.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Louis actually has hit him pretty well. So forever, how
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: long he's out there, he might not do that. Well,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: he's got bad numbers against the Cardinals. I would lean
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: over in this game. I think that's probably the better
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: way to play this. The total is another low total though.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: That kind of scares me, you know, like the odds
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: makers have a total here, seven, seven and a half.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: What is up with that? Really? Um, I know yesterday's
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: game landed on two, but still, looking at this pitching matchup,
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: how the hell do you get to a seven total
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: in this game? I mean, that's ridiculous. Seven is a
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: number that you get on a pitching duel type of game,
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: and a game that usually doesn't involve an offense. It's
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: as potent as Pittsburgh. I don't know what we're doing here,
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: but I would lean over in this one, but the
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: odds makers are definitely scaring me as far as that
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: is concerned. 50-50 on the tickets there. 92% of the
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: cash on the over, though. So it looks like the
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: money is on the over. 77% of tickets on Pittsburgh.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: 94% of the cash on St.
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: Louis.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: I would not back St. Louis in this one. Libertore
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: is awful, dude. So there's no way that I would
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: back St. Louis here. I don't exactly love the idea
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: of a Pittsburgh bullpen game either. They're around minus 130.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: But in my opinion, it might actually be better than
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: Libertore plus the St. Louis bullpen. So I would actually
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: slightly lean Pittsburgh in that game. But Yeah, I think
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: the over is the better way to play that, but
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: that total is really low, and I don't understand why.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: Cleveland and Boston, this game's on ESPN, which is kind
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: of stupid because the Red Sox basically have nothing to
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: play for, and I told you that I thought Cleveland
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: would somehow get away with the win in that game yesterday.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: I was worried because Nesic had not done well against
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox in the past, but I still leaned
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: Cleveland and the under in that game yesterday, and those
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: both were correct. The Red Sox just They don't have
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: anything to play for right now. They returned home from
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: the road yesterday. They were coming off celebrating, clinching the playoffs.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure the Red Sox have clinched the number
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: two wild card. I'm almost positive they have because I
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: think it's already known that the Red Sox and Yankees
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: are playing each other again in the wild card round here.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: Standing wise, let me see here. Wild card. No, wait, what?
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: I don't think the Red Sox have clinched. I don't know.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: This is weird. They have a three-game lead right now
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: over the White Sox. They have a six-game lead over
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: the Rangers. Yeah, how does that work? Because if the
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Red Sox wind up below the White Sox and they
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: both get a wild card, the White Sox would wind
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: up ahead of them. Isn't that still possible? We still
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: have what, five games left or so? Or do we
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: have fewer than five games left? I don't know. And,
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: you know, I think there's a head-to-head tiebreaker where maybe
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the White Sox.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure what's going on with this. But, yeah,
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: I thought that the Red Sox had clinched the number two,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: but whatever. Cleveland has more to play for. Cleveland is
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: still trying to make sure they win their division, right?
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: But I think the pitching matchup does favor the Red
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: Sox in this one if The pitchers are going to
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: come out and actually try here. Both bullpens are pretty good,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: although the Red Sox are a little bit better. The
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: Red Sox used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: and most of the Red Sox relief pitchers have come back,
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: like Guerrero and Whitlock have come back off the DL.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: The only guy they haven't gotten back is Slayton, and
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: he is not coming back. Cleveland used five relief pitchers yesterday,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: and they had to use their better relievers. Smith, I think,
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: is actually their closer, and Gattis is like their... I
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: thought he was their closer, but he's like their setup guy,
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: I guess. So they used, like, all their better relievers yesterday.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: So the Red Sox have the better bullpen set up here.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: They're also the number one bullpen in both ERA and WIP.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is not bad, though. Like I said, they're number 10.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: But the Red Sox get the bullpen advantage here in
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: this one. Red Sox are the better offense. The Red
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: Sox are 11th right now tied with Atlanta. And Cleveland
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: has not been good. They're number 27. Cleveland's got Foster
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: Griffin on the mound here. Good season for him, mostly
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: with Washington. 3.67 ERA, 1.19 whip. He's not as good
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: on the road. 3.92 road ERA, which is still good.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: He's not really in good form right now, though. Like
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Cleveland picked him up. He had a really bad start
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: in his first start with them against the Mets. Then
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: he went on a run where he had some good starts.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: He had like five pretty good starts in a row.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: Then he got blasted by Baltimore. And then he didn't
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: really do that well last time against the White Sox either.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: So Griffin, I don't know. He's a little bit out
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: of form right now. He's getting hit really hard over
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: his last few starts. Although he hasn't allowed any home runs,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: but he's allowed a lot of hits here. The Red
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Sox have never seen him. So he does have that advantage.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: Griffin's been decent overall. But I don't trust his current form.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: But then again, the Red Sox have never seen him.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: So maybe he does pitch okay here. His hit rate's
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: all right on the season. His walk rate is fine.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is also fine. But none of the
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: numbers are going to blow you away. 3.4 strikeout walk ratios.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Pretty good, but it's gone way down with Cleveland. He's
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: been way worse with Cleveland, dude. Like his ERA with
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: Washington was in the threes. His ERA with Cleveland is 5.79. So, yeah.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: He's been way worse with Cleveland for whatever reason, although
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: really it's two starts that are skewing his numbers, so
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: I would not weigh that too heavily, but he's definitely
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: been a little bit worse at the very least. 8.2
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. That number hasn't really changed between the
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: two teams. Again, I guess do what you want with
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: all that information here. The Red Sox have Sonny Gray
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: pitching here. It looks like the Red Sox have their
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: Set up for the wild card because we kind of
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: know what they're doing now because there are few enough
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: games left that I'm pretty sure the Red Sox are
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: going with Peyton Tolley in the first wild card game.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure that's what's happening. I think that was
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: Tolley's last regular season start yesterday. And I think the
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: next time he pitches is going to be the first
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: wild card game. I believe that's what the Red Sox
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: are doing. Then it looks like what they're going to
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: do is have Sonny Gray be their number two pitcher
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: in the wildcard series there. And then I would assume
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: Suarez is the number three if it gets to a
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: third game there. I mean, who else? Who the fuck
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: else is it going to be? Well, Jake Bennett, I guess,
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: has been all right, but he's just too young. I
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: don't think they want to throw him in there. Tully's young, too,
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: but Tully has really proven himself. So Sonny Gray, though,
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: is on the mound here. He's had a good season, 2.82 ERA. 1.16 whip.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty much similar home and away. His ERA
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: is a little bit worse at home, but his opponent
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: batting average is better at home, so I wouldn't say
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: he's really necessarily that much better or worse home and away.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: He's still pitching pretty well. He's not allowing many runs
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: here in his starts. He's been pretty solid, fairly consistent,
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: although he does have occasional starts where he just gets
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: blown up, though. He did pitch once against Cleveland in
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: Cleveland earlier this year, and he pitched pretty well in
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: that one. Gave up one run in six innings. His
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: only issue in that one was he walked a few,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: but he's got a low hit rate on the season.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: Doesn't really walk that many guys. His strikeout rate isn't
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: really that high either, but he also induces a lot
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: of ground balls, so that's pretty good. 3.2 strikeout walk
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: ratio is just all right. 8.1 strikeout per night isn't
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: really that great either, but he's You know, like I said,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: it seems like he was being overworked when he was
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: on St. Louis because he had way more strikeouts with St. Louis.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: But overall, he's been more effective with the Red Sox,
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: taking a little bit off of his stuff. So I
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: don't know. It seems like overall that's a little bit better.
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: And he's been good against Cleveland. They have 130 at-bats
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: against him. He was on Minnesota for a while, so
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: some of that might have happened then. 26 strikeouts, 9 walks,
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: 208 average, 639 yards. 636, excuse me, OPS allowed. Yeah.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: He's been good against them. Um, yeah. Like the guys
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: that have the big sample sizes here, Ramirez and Kwon
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: don't really have great numbers against them overall. So gray
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: does have a pretty good matchup here. Um, This game
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: could be another under, perhaps. Maybe that's how I would
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: look in this game. I mean, it's another 6.5 total.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: There you go. It's another 6. You might be able
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: to find a 7 on this.
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: It looks like it's mostly 6.5. Juice to the over.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: And that number got driven down. The opener was 7.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: Juice to the over. So it looks like the professionals
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: really took that number, that 7, and now it's gone, man.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: So if you wanted to get the under here, really,
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: to me, I think you really want to look for
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: that 7. I don't know if you're going to be
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: able to find it at this point. 61% of tickets
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: on the over. 65% of the cash on the over.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: But I think the under is the better way to
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: look at this game. I think you have at least
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: decent pitching throughout this game. The money is back in
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox really strongly. Minus 130 something here. 53%
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: of the tickets on Cleveland. 91% of the cash on
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. I probably don't disagree. It's just Cleveland
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: definitely has more motivation here. But I think Gray is
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: the better starter in this game. And the Red Sox
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen and more high leverage arms available
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: here if they want to use them, which you will
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: probably see the Red Sox better reliever get into some
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: of these games because you don't want them to go
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: ice cold right and you don't want them to rest
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: too much going into the playoffs you need them to
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: get a little bit of work in there so that's
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: what I think about that game that game is not
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: going to be a play for me Tampa and the
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: Yankees on Amazon Prime Like I said, these two teams
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: clinched their spots yesterday. Tampa Bay clinched the division. New
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: York clinched the number one wild card spot. But you
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: got to think Tampa was celebrating. You know what I mean?
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: Tampa just won the division with a big win over
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: the Yankees last night. They probably went out and celebrated.
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: So this could be a letdown spot for Tampa here because, yeah,
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: they're playing against the Yankees. Yeah, that's normally big. But
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: how much motivation are they going to have here? You
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? After they clinched the division. I
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: don't know. It looks like kind of a letdown spot
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: for Tampa to me here. The Yankees do have the
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: better bullpen out of the two, although they did use
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: four relief pitchers yesterday. That's not that bad considering they
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: played a doubleheader, but they did use their closer, I assume,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: in game one, which is the game the Yankees won.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: They kind of saved their bullpen in game two, it
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: looks like. Tampa didn't use many of their guys either, though.
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: They used four, but they used their closer, Baker, in
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: game two, I would assume. although they didn't need to
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: use him, so I don't really know why they did,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: but I guess they wanted to get him some work.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: But they had a bigger lead than necessary there. Tampa's
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: number two in bullpen, Yankees number four, but the Yankees'
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: ERA is almost a run better, so they're clearly the
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: better bullpen over Tampa. Tampa is decent, but the Yankees
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: are a top-two bullpen here. Yankees' offense has fallen off
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: again a little bit. Aaron Judge... Not playing, and Judge
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: is expected to miss the wild card series too, so
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: definitely some injuries going on with him there. Yankees are
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: number 15 offensively right now, tied with Minnesota. Tampa Bay
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: is number 7. Tampa Bay's got Ian Seymour scheduled to
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: pitch here. Whoops. Come on. Seymour, I believe he's the
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: guy who pitches better at home. He's been better than
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: his ERA would suggest, though. He pitched out of the
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: bullpen early in the season. He's been in the starting
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: rotation for a while. 4.38 ERA 1.17 whip is pretty
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: good though he's also not really good on the road
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: though like I said 4.96 road ERA and Tampa Bay
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: is just not as good of a road team they're
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: really really good at home but they're not as good
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: on the road Seymour wasn't really good in his last
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: start against the Red Sox. He gave up some runs
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: in that one, although he's still pitching pretty well. He's
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: got a 17-4 strikeout walk ratio this month, so despite
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: the fact that his ERA is like 6 almost this month,
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: he actually hasn't pitched badly enough to really warrant that,
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: except that he's been really home run heavy. That's been
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: kind of the problem with him. Tampa's losing a lot
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: of his recent games, 6 out of his last 7
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: in fact, but A lot of it isn't him. Like,
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: he's allowed four or fewer runs than all of them.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: He's allowed more than three only once the last time
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: out against the Red Sox. But again, yeah, I mean,
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: he's got really good command numbers here. Strikeout walk ratio.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: It's just he's been a little bit too hittable with
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: the home runs, which I think may be a little
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: bit fluky. Those are hurting him right now. He's got
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: a pretty low hit rate here. His home run rate, yeah,
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: isn't great. His walk rate is pretty low. His strikeout
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: rate is quite high. So I think he is a
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: pretty good pitcher. 4.3 strikeout walk ratio is definitely solid.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: 11 strikeout per nine. You can't complain about that either.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: That's really good. His numbers against the Yankees are a
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: little bit all over the place. 39 at bats, 20
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: to one strikeout walk ratio is really good. Again, really
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: good command numbers, but they do have three home runs
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: off of them. Two of them are from Ben Rice.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: So the Yankees only have a 231 average against them,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: but because of the home runs, they have a 788
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: OPS against them. So, Overall, I would say he's done
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: a mediocre job against the Yankees. The Yankees have Garrett
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: Cole pitching this game. Looks like the Yankees are kind
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: of setting up their rotation. You wouldn't think they'd be
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: doing it this way, but it looks like their rotation
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: for the wildcard round is going to be Freed and
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: then Cole just because of the experience, I guess. And
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: then Schlittler is going to be their number three. Is
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: that really what they're doing? I don't know, man. Uh,
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: Cole is a 3.63 ERA, 1.1 whip. He's had a
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: good season, man. Um, well, the other thing about Freed
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: and Cole is that they've been injured during the season.
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: So just like with the Dodgers starters, I think the
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: Yankees have caught on to that and they've been basically
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: making up injuries so that these guys don't have to
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: work as much during the regular season. It's basically just like, whatever,
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: do enough to make the playoffs and then have your
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: better pitchers, your older pitchers or whatever, be more rested
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: going in. Um, for uh cole has a little bit
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: of a worse era at home 3.93 but his opponent
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: batting average is actually better at home so he's not
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: actually really worse at home good start last time out
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: for him on the road at arizona but cole was
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: not pitching well this month prior to that he's allowed
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: eight home runs this month and this month his era
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: is in the mid fives so i don't know like
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: is he regaining form because he did have a good
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: start last time out against arizona or is his form
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: still bad right now It's hard to say, but he
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: does have an 18-to-1 strikeout walk ratio this month, so
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: that is good. Basically, this looks similar to what we
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: just saw with Seymour, where the command numbers are really good,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: but the hit rate's too high and the home run
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: rate's too high. Over the course of the season, though,
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: Cole's hit rate is all right. His walk rate is
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: really low. He has allowed too many home runs, though,
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is fairly high. He's got a 5.6
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio because his walk rate is so low. 9.1
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is pretty good as well. He's pretty
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: good against Samp on 149 at bats, 33 to 11
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That's kind of mediocre, but 242 average,
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: 629 OPS. Those are good numbers there. Yeah, I mean...
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: This game feels like it would be an under again.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: Both pitchers are not that bad. I think the total
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: is definitely low. It was at seven juice to the
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: under and it immediately got taken out. And you're looking
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: at a six and a half now that's juice to
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: the under. We have so many six and a halves recently, man.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: And again, like I said yesterday, it is profitable to
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: blindly play all six and a halves under in MLB long-term.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: For me, though, I like to pick my spots, and
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: I like to get the key number. But the oddsmakers
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: are telling you this should be a low-scoring game. We
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: have 50-50 on the tickets and 90% of the cash
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: on the over here. So the money is seemingly back
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: in the over as far as these percentages look. The
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: money is also leaning towards Tampa here. I don't really
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: understand that. 89% of tickets, 57% of the cash on
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. It might just be about the price, but
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: maybe it looks too easy to play the Yankees at
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: minus 130-something here. I would only lean Yankees here, though.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: I think they have the better starter, the better bullpen,
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: and more motivation. Well, not really more motivation, but I
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: think Tampa could be in more of a letdown spot.
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: Because winning the division's big, right? You're in a division,
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: you're in the toughest division, debatably the toughest division in baseball,
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: and you just... won the division, you know, a division
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: that the Yankees and the Red Sox are in. So
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know. To me, it seems like Tampa was
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: probably out celebrating last night, hitting the bars in New York,
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: you know? So I don't know. They might be hung
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: over literally coming into this game. Cincinnati at Atlanta. I
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: did tell you I leaned Cincinnati in the game yesterday
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: just because the spot was bad for Atlanta and the
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: return home spot. Atlanta, I mean, they're pretty comfortable. I
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: think they might have clinched, actually, their spot at this point.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: Almost certain, or it might be definitive at this point
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: that Atlanta is going to be the number three seed
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: in the NL. So I don't think Atlanta has a
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: whole lot to play for, but in this game, they
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: obviously have the way better starter here. So I don't
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: really expect them to lose this one. They're also in
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: what is typically a bounce back spot when a team
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: returns home from the road and they don't do well,
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: especially if they get shut out at home like they
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: did yesterday. Teams tend to bounce back. They tend to
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: bounce back after they get shut out at home. And
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: if they have a bad game when they come back home,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: they get stuff out of the way and refocus. So
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: there are some positives situationally for Atlanta here. But you're
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: going to have to pay a huge price for them
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: because they have the way better pitcher on the mound here.
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: Atlanta also has the way better bullpen. They used two
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Cincinnati used three. Atlanta
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: is number three in bullpen. I think they're, yeah, that
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: is basically what they are. one of the top three
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: or four bullpens. Uh, Cincinnati is not even close. They're
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: number 25. Atlanta is also the better offense. They are
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: tied with the red Sox. As I said, at number 11,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: both Braves Atlanta, Oh no, uh, Atlanta and Boston. I mean,
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: cause Atlanta used to be the Boston Braves way back
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: in the day, both Boston teams is what I meant
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: to say. Um, and Cincinnati is, uh, where are they at?
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: Number 25 and offense. Um, Cincinnati's got Andrew Abbott pitching here.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: He's had a bad season, man. He was better than
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: this his last couple seasons. I don't know what happened
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: to him this season. He's never been a great strikeout
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: pitcher or anything like that, but he's been reasonably effective,
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: but this year, not really. 4.7 ERA, 1.47 whip is
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: really ugly. 4.91 road ERA is not good. He's actually
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: worse on the road, even though his home stadium is hitter-friendly.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: He's not pitching well recently. He's failed to make it
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: five innings in any of his last four starts. He's
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: allowed seven earned runs. in two of the four although
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: he only allowed one in the other two but he's
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: not pitching well although granted he had to face the
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: Cubs the Brewers twice and the Dodgers over that span
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: those are all good offenses but the Braves are not
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: really bad offensively either obviously I mean there's not a
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: lot to like With Abbott here, really, he's given up
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: a lot of runs recently. His walk rate's not very
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: good recently. His hit rate's not very good. His hit
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: rate's one per inning on the season. That's not good.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's too high. His strikeout rate's low. His
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio's really bad. At 1.7, that's terrible. Absolutely terrible.
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: And after he had his best season of his career
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: last year. So, yeah, things not going well here this year. 7.1
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. That's not good. His numbers against Atlanta
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: are okay, and 32 at-bats, 250 average, 726 OPS, 7-5
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Those are mediocre numbers there for him.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: Chris Sale is on the other side, as I was
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: alluding to. He's obviously the way better starter here, and
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: what I think is a battle of lefties here. Sale, 2.18 ERA,.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: 99 whip, 1.66 ERA at home. He's been excellent at home.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: Still pitching really well. The Red Sox should never have
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: let him go. Um, yeah, I mean, he's in the
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: Cy Young race here, although I still think Mizurowski pretty
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: much has it wrapped up. Sale, um, yeah, I mean,
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: what else is there to say about him? He's still
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: pitching pretty much dominantly here. He's got a low hit
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: rate on the season, low walk rate, high strikeout rate,
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: all that stuff. Uh, 6.1 strikeout per nine, or strikeout
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, I mean, at the age of 37. Really,
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: really insane stuff. Really good number there. Um, A 10.9
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is also really good. His numbers against
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati are also really good. He's excellent against them, in fact.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: They have 44 at-bats, and they have 22 strikeouts against them.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: Five hits, only one extra base hit, a double from Stevenson,
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: and only two walks. So Sale has completely dominated this lineup.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: They have a 114 average against them at 289 OPS.
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: Decent sample size. Those are some of the most dominant
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: numbers you're going to see. But how can you really
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: play this game? You can't really play Atlanta minus 250-something,
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: minus 260. The money's also not even coming in on them.
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: 93% of tickets, 86% of the cash on them. So
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: the money's bagging Cincinnati, although I see no reason to
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: like Cincinnati here. I think Atlanta's in the better situation.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: The only reason is that Atlanta has nothing to play for. But,
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, Cincinnati, all they have to play for is
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: pulling off an upset of Atlanta. I mean, I don't know.
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: Is that enough motivation? They're not divisional rivals or anything
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: like that. So I don't know. I think Atlanta wins
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: this game. I think the situation sets up better for them.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: Sale is the way better pitcher here. You get the
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: better bullpen and the better offense as well. I don't
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: think I'd really want to lay the minus one and
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: a half, though. You got a low total here, seven
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: and a half. Money's coming in towards the over, it
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: looks like, though. But again, the Osmakers have put up
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: yet another low total in another game here. Um... You
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: could go Cincinnati under their team total if you think
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's pitching is just going to ace them here. You're
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: going to need them to score two or less, though.
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: That's always a risk, trying to do that. But Sale
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: has completely dominated them. Or if you have a book
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: that allows you to go under Cincinnati's team total in
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: the first five, you could do that. You could do
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Chris Sale to get a win. I don't really talk
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: about that too much. The starting pitcher to get a
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: win prop. You could do that. That will get the
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: price down as well. You need a lot of things
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: to go right, though. You need Atlanta to be winning
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: when Sale goes out of the game. He needs to
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: go at least five, although he's almost always going to
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: do that. And then you need their bullpen to hold
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: on to the game. But in a game like this,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: that definitely could happen because they do have all of
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: those edges in this game. So that is an option here.
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: You could Moneyline Parlay Atlanta with something else, like maybe
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: even a football game that's coming up in the next
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: few days. I do think Atlanta's going to win this game.
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: So those are some of the options that you could
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: potentially go with there. On the total, I would actually
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: probably slightly lean towards the under in that game. But,
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, Abbott worries me a little bit, but Cincinnati's
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: bullpen worries me more than anything else. So first five
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: under maybe makes sense in that game, which you're going
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: to be looking at a three and a half, though.
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: All right. Uh, White Sox and Royals. Uh, that game
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: yesterday was insane. I thought it was going to be
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game early in that game. And it was, uh, not,
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: I don't believe Kansas city lost the game 14 to 11. Yeah.
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, there were just runs scored throughout this entire game.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: It was ridiculous. Um, in fact, uh, the White Sox
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: were winning the game 14 to four late in the
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: game and the Royal scored seven runs off of their bullpen. Um, Just, yeah, really,
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: really crazy game. Will this be another over here? Maybe.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, the pitching in this game doesn't look very good.
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: The White Sox used four relief pitchers yesterday. Kansas City
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: used two. The White Sox actually are not that bad
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen, despite what it looked like yesterday.
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: I think they must have used bad relief pitchers yesterday
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: because they had a huge lead. And then they had
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: to probably bring in other guys to save the game
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: eventually or something. I don't know. The White Sox are
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: number 15 in bullpen today. Kansas City's dead last, but
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: as I always say, I think the A's are worse
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: than they are, but Kansas City is one of the
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: worst two bullpens, I would say. Kansas City's 19th in
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: offense tied with Texas. White Sox are number 10, so
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are better there. White Sox have a
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: bullpen game going on here. Brian Hudson listed as the starter.
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: He's been all right, but he's only going to be
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: out there very briefly. Wasn't good in his last outing
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: at all against Detroit. He does have good numbers against
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: the Royals, but I don't think he's going to be
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: out there for a long period of time, man. Now,
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: let me see what the last time the White Sox
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: did this was. Five days ago, Eric Fetty was involved
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: in that game, and we lost that game. I give
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: up Detroit in that one. Fetty, I'm expecting Fetty probably
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: does pitch in this game, so just be aware of that. Yeah,
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: the last time he pitched was that game. So I
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: think Fedde is going to get a majority of the
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: pitching duties actually in this game for the White Sox.
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.9 ERA, 1.34 whip. That whip not
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: exactly great. He's not good on the road, 4.87 road ERA.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: He's not great against Kansas City in 91 at-bats, 253
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: average allowed, 760 OPS, 13-9 strikeout walk ratio. So Fedde, yeah,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: he might not do great here, you know. He's not
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: going deep into a lot of his outings. I mean,
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: he's been having an opener pitch in front of him
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: a lot, which is probably happening here, too. His hit
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: rate's not great. His walk rate's not great. His strikeout
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: rate's not great. Nothing really to love here. Bad strikeout
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, 1.9. 6.3 strikeout per nine. None of that
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: is good. So, yeah, I mean, I assume Fedde is
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: going to pitch for at least four innings here, probably,
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: depending on how he's pitching, but If you're going to
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: play this game, I would pick Lugo, must start for
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. Don't pick a start for the White Sox,
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: but I assume Fedde will be in here, and I
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: don't think that's going to go that well for the
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: White Sox. Seth Lugo on the other side. Advanced analytics
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: guy celebrating because Lugo has fallen off a cliff here.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: His numbers have become horrible. 5.06 ERA, 1.46 WIP. He's
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: better at home, though, 4.07 home ERA. You know, I mean,
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: two of his starts this month out of the three
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: of them have not been that bad, though. His last
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: start wasn't good against Houston, but, you know, I mean,
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: his form, I don't know what to say about it.
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: He's been way too hittable, though. But he had a
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: couple of really bad starts in here. He was pretty
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: bad last month. Although his command numbers continue to be
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: somewhat okay, but just he's been way too hittable recently.
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: His hit rate on the season is way too high.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: That's like the one main concern with him is the
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: hits are ridiculous. But he doesn't strike guys out either.
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: So the advanced analytics guys don't like him for that reason.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: He's not even really that much of a ground ball pitcher.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: His home run rate's not great. His walk rate's not
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: really that good either. Lugo against the White Sox is
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: not horrible though. In 96 at-bats, 260 average, 705 OPS allowed.
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: 18-10 strikeout walk ratio. Those numbers are not too bad.
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: Lugo's season-long numbers here were the 2.4 strikeout walk ratio,
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: 7 strikeout per nine. Those are not really excellent, obviously.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: This game probably looks more like an over than anything else,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: I guess I would say. I don't really love the
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: pitching here. The money seems to definitely agree with that one.
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: You get an 8.5 total, so.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: The odds makers have not put a really low total
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: on this one. 67% of tickets on the under, 77%
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over. I think I agree
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: with that. I think I agree with the over more
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: than anything else here. The White Sox are favored, but
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: of course we know the White Sox are trying to win.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: They're trying to make the playoffs. So it looks like
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: they will at least get the last wild card spot
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: if they don't win the division. But they're still trying
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: to win. So the money is coming in on the
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: White Sox. 77% of tickets, 87% of the cash on
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: them at about minus... 112 or so here but i
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: think the price might be too high i think the
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: pressure's on the white socks i think you're paying a
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: little bit too much for them for that reason should
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: they really be a road favorite with a bullpen game
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: slash eric fetty on the mound i would say no
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: like i think kansas city first five might actually be
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: the side to lean to in this game i don't
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: i would not want to play it but um Kansas
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: City first five I think Lou go to out pitch
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: Hudson slash Betty here might actually be the way to
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: look here and obviously avoid the Kansas City bullpen but
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: yeah I still think the over is the better approach
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: in that game even though yesterday's game went way over
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: Speaking of going over, Miami and Chicago Cubs yesterday, this
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: was a horrific beat. We need the Ghost Runners to
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: go away, man. Like I said, this game was indeed
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: 2-2 at the end of the ninth inning yesterday. And
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: then Miami scored six runs after neither team even scored
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: in the 10th or the 11th. So the Ghost Runners
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: didn't even score until the 12th when Miami scored six
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: runs and wound up winning the game that way off
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: of Teal Bar, who sucks, by the way. He's the
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: guy that gave it up for the Cubs in that inning.
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: His numbers are not good. But what are we looking
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: at in this game overall here? Well, Miami's eliminated, but
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: they look like they're at least showing some motivation here.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: But maybe they'll be in a little bit of a
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: letdown spot after that big win yesterday. Although the Cubs, yeah,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, their motivation might be overstated, right? Like the
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: Cubs are fighting for home field in the wild card here.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: That's what they're going for at this point. But they
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: were technically in a return home spot yesterday, even though
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: it was off of a one-series road trip. But a
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: lot of times when you have a bad game like
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: that in a return home spot, a lot of times
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: you do bounce back. So I think there are more
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: indicators that the Cubs should win this game than otherwise,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: although they are favored by quite a bit here. Maybe
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: the motivation will be enough to get them there on
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: their side too. But the Cubs used six guys out
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen yesterday. That's not exactly great.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: Miami.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: Did use a lot as well, though. Miami used seven.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: Miami is the higher ranked bullpen at number 12. The
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: Cubs are number 15, but the Cubs have the slightly
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: better ERA. So I think, I don't know, I kind
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: of prefer the Cubs bullpen out of the two a
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: little bit. They're both all right bullpens. Miami's number eight
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: in offense. The Cubs are number one, though, still. Although
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers are catching up again to them. Ryan Gusto
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: getting the start from Miami here. I mean, he's clearly
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: the lesser of these two pitchers here. 4.14 ERA is
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: not that bad, but a 1.44 whip. Yeah, that's not good.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: He puts too many guys on base. He's also not
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: very good on the road. 4.42 road ERA. He pitches
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: better at home in the pitcher-friendly Miami stadium there. He's
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: not really going deep into most of his outings here.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: He's given up some runs here. Not great command numbers here.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: He's been too hittable. There's not a lot to like, really,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: with Gusto here. His hit rate's too high. His walk
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: rate isn't too bad, so at least there's that. His
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate's not high either, though. 2.7 strikeout walk ratio, 7.5
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: case per nine. Definitely, he's a mediocre pitcher at best.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Cubs are really bad. In 36 at-bats,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: this is not mediocre. This is Real ugly stuff here.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: It's a decent-sized sample. Cubs have a. 417 batting average
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: off them and a 1,128 OPS, and most of the
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: hitters have faced them, and none of their hitters have
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: a huge sample size against them either. So this is
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: across the board, basically. The Cubs hit them well. 8-3
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. I do not think Gusto's going to
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: have a great outing here. Cubs are going with Kevin Gaussman,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: who was listed as the starter yesterday at one point.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: But I believe they did use Imanaga yesterday. And Imanaga,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: I think, did pitch well yesterday. Gaussman, I mean, his
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: season hasn't been great. Toronto wound up trading him away. 4.55 ERA.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: The 1.27 whip isn't that bad. Gaussman has been a
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: good home pitcher for the most part. 3.87 home ERA.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: You know, I mean, his current form... His last start
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: wasn't bad against Atlanta. He had a bad start before
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: that against Milwaukee. He had a good start before that
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: against Milwaukee. And his good recent starts have been at home,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: which is kind of expected. He's got a good strikeout
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: walk ratio recently, at least. His strikeout walk ratio remains good,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: but he's been a little bit too hittable for the
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: most part. And the home runs have been a little
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: bit of an issue for him here. He's got a
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: hit rate that's too high. His walk rate is not bad.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate's pretty good as well. Home run rate,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: not great, though. Gaussman, 3.8 strikeout walk ratio is not
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: too bad. It's gone up with the Cubs, actually. And 9.3
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, that's also gone up with the Cubs.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: So in some ways, he's been a little bit better
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: with the Cubs. Against Miami, he's been okay. As I
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: think I alluded to yesterday, he's got 28 at-bats against them. A.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: 286 average allowed is kind of high, but they have
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: not hit him for that much power. 7.26 OPS isn't
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: really that high. 7-2 strikeout walk ratio here. So the
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: Cubs should win this game, man. I mean, I think
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: the situation does still favor them and the matchup favors
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: them as well. But they're public and the money is
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: saying otherwise. 91% of tickets, 90% of the cash on
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. They're minus 180 or so here on the
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: money line. It's a big money line delay here, man.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: I don't really see the Cubs losing this game. I mean,
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know. If you wanted to do a money
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: line parlay with Cubs and Atlanta I guess you could
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: do that but I think one of them is going
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: to lose so that means probably it's going to be
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: the Cubs that would be more likely to lose though
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: out of the two of them I think I don't
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: know man Although the Dodgers are probably going to be
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: kind of a popular money line parlay as well. One
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: of those teams is going to lose because the books
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: need those parlays to go down. So I don't know.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: The money in this game is also coming in on
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: the over, but it's another low, low total. Another six
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: and a half. Yet again, another one. So you know
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: that means winds blowing in in Wrigley because Gusto Gaussman,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: there's no way that would be a six and a
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: half total without the wind blowing in. So be aware
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: the wind is blowing in in this one. the total
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: might be too low though given that I know yesterday
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: I liked the under yesterday because the pitching was a
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: good matchup and if you played the under you got
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: absolutely screwed in that one one of the worst beats
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: that you'll see but this game I would not really
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: love playing the under here in fact yeah maybe even
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: a slight lean towards the over in this one But
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: that does mean that one way you can play this
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: game is Cubs team total over. I mean, the Cubs
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: absolutely wreck gusto. So that might make sense, actually, for
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: the Cubs to have a bit of a bounce back
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: offensively here. Even though the wind is blowing in, maybe
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: Cubs team total over makes some sense here. And, you know,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, you'll probably only need them to get to
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: four runs in this one, actually. So maybe that's not
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: even that bad of an idea to do that. Got
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: to worry about the wind, though. All right, I still
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: have two plays left, and they're coming up in the
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: remaining five games. I'll be right back, and then I'll
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: talk about those. Saab, what's up, man? You're on the
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: under in the Phillies and the Brewers? So am I.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: I gave that out as a play already. Yankees raise.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: I slightly lean that way. At least you got the
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: seven on that because there are six and a halves
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: out there. I think I agree with you on that,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. I mean, that one worries me
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: a bit more because, I don't know, the motivation– might
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: not be there, but that might mean the hitting might
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: not be there either, though. I don't know. Like, I
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: don't know. Like, motivation might affect the hitting more, actually,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: because the pitchers, you know, that's just one guy that
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: you need to gauge is motivation versus an entire lineup
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: of guys, so I don't know. But I like the
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: Brewers-Phillies one more. That one is one of my plays.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: All right, I'll be right back. Yep, inside. I want
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: to kill myself. We are on an 0-7 run over
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: the last two days. After tonight, it was just complete bullshit.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: So that's how I'm going to start off this show.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't even know what to tell
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: you about that. I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this, man. With the
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: I just have not had a good season, man. What
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: can I say? slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak, actually. I'm gonna burn my
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: Bruins hat, man. I don't know what is going on
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: with the Bruins.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: March 8th?
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: 0-2 yesterday. And yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: The worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. All right. Next
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: game is one of my plays, I believe. Is it?
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: Mets, Texas. Let's do this. We're going to take the
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: Mets on the money line in this one. Full game.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: I think they have the better bullpen here as well.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: You know me. I mean, Nolan McClain pitching. I do
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: like to back him, even though he's a young guy
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: and he's got a lot of innings under his belt
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: now this year, but he doesn't really look like he's
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: wearing down here. So I'm going to do this. Mets
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: are just playing off the stretch, but they won yesterday,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: so the Mets are still trying. The Mets used three.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday. They didn't really use any of their
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: better relief pitchers, though. Texas' bullpen has been a problem
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: this year, and they used four guys out of their bullpen,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: so I do not trust Texas' bullpen. They're number 20,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: and the Mets have an ERA that's. 7 runs better
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: at number 6. So I prefer the Mets bullpen, so
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: we will leave them in in this one. I know
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: the Mets offense isn't that good at number 24. Texas
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: isn't that good either, though, at number 19. Tied with
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: the Royals. Texas, they got a win, man, but everybody
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: knows that Texas needs to win. So I think at
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: this point it looks too easy to take Texas because
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: they're tied atop the division right now with Houston. They
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: have the pressure on them. They did lose yesterday. They've
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: lost two games in a row. Everybody knows Texas needs
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: to win today. But that means the public's going to
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: be on them. Again, it's a pick-the-winner price. It looks
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: way too easy to play them. The money seems like
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: it's strongly agreeing with me on the Mets here. So
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: we have two strong market agreements already here with me
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: on these two games. Yeah, the under in that other
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: game looks good right now. We'll see what the market
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: does throughout the day. But 55% of tickets, 90% of
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: the cash on the Mets. So the money's agreeing with
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: me here. The money is slightly indicating towards the over
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: here with the public under 7.5% here. I'm not so
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: sure about that. I mean, I don't have a great
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: read on the total here. I mean, Texas, we know
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: they play a lot of low-scoring games at home, though.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: But I'm focusing on the side here, obviously. We're going
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: to back Nolan McClain here in this one. Really good
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: season from him. 3.18 ERA, 1.19 whip. He's been better
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: on the road as well. 2.89 road ERA with a
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: 197 road opponent batting average. Really good stuff here. I
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: don't think he's wearing down, even though his walk rate
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: this month is a little bit concerning. He had one
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: bad start in here against the Yankees. The Rangers are
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: not the Yankees, though, okay? Yeah, he's been a little
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: bit too hittable, but it's mostly just because that Yankees
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: start wasn't good. And other than that, he's allowed two
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: The only one he didn't was against the Yankees, so
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: he is still pitching well here. He's got a low
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: hit rate. His walk rate is his only concern. The
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: walk rate's kind of high. His strikeout rate is also high, though,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: and yes, I know he's up to 170-something innings, which
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: concerns me a little bit, but he's been good, man,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: and his last start was pretty good, so even though
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: he was a little bit wild in that one. 2.7
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 9.9 strikeouts per nine. I mean, again,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: the walk number is kind of bad, but he's able
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: to strike guys out at a high level and Texas
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: has not really seen much of him. Texas is two
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: for 10 off him with one extra base hit a
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: double from Freeman, not Freddie Freeman, Cody Freeman, four strikeouts,
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: no walks here. So McLean's been good against them in
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: a very small sample, 200 average, 500 OPS. I do
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: think he'll continue to pitch well, and he has that
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: unfamiliarity here. Meanwhile, Cody Bradford is pitching for Texas. He
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: was good a couple years ago, but he's trying to
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: come back from injury and missing a lot of time
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: with his injury, and he hasn't done well so far.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: In fact, I believe Texas has lost all of his starts. Oh, no,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: they won one of them. His first one of the
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: season they won. And since then, Texas has lost his
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: last seven starts. That's not a good sign, even though
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all of
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: them except one. They're losing all of his starts, and
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: he's not going deep in any of them. He hasn't
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: gone five innings in any of his starts this month.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: He's got a bad strikeout walk ratio here. His strikeout
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: rate's been really low. He's given up too many hits
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: as well, so he's definitely in worse form than McClain,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: I would have to say. He's got a high hit
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: rate so far. His walk rate's not... I mean, his
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: walk rate's alright. I won't hit him for that, but
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate's also really low, so there's something wrong
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: with him right now. He's got a 4.19 ERA, but
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: a 1.5 whip is really ugly as well. He's putting
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: way too many guys on base. In the past, like
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: I said, he was good. You know, he had... A
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: good season in 2024. This season, though, I mean, it
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: was a shortened season, though. This season, two strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: that's bad. 4.7 strikeout per nine. It's like half of
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: what he used to post. So there's something not right
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: with him right now, man. And the Mets, you know,
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: they only have three hitters who have faced him, seven at-bats,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: but they do have a. 286 average at 804 OPS
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: against him, at least, with one extra base hit, a
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: Bichette double in here. One strikeout, one walk. But yeah,
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: I'm going to prefer McLean over Bradford, man. McLean has
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: proven himself this year. Bradford looks very shaky right now
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: in his attempt to come back. I like the Mets
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: in this one. It's a matchup thing. Again, I think
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: it looks way too easy to take Texas here in
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: this one as the team that needs to win. And yeah,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: the pitching matchup to me favors the Mets throughout this one.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: So we're taking the Mets in that one. All right. Arizona, Colorado.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, Arizona won yesterday, which I thought they would.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: Arizona is in dire straits right now. I mean, they've
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: got to keep winning. They're not eliminated yet, right? I
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: still don't think they are, but they're almost eliminated. Let
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: me see. Yeah. Yeah. They're hanging on for dear life.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: And actually, there's a three-way tie between the Cubs, Phillies,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: and Padres right now. I didn't realize the Padres had
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: caught up that much. That's insane, dude. And the D-backs
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: are four games back. I mean, I think the D-backs,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: if they lose one more game, they're eliminated. Or if
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: their opponents all manage to win one more game at
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: some point, which is going to happen. The D-backs are
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: basically fucked. But maybe they are going to try to
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: keep winning here. I mean, they're obviously the way better
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: team over Colorado here. But the D-backs pitcher here is
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: not good. So what are we going to do with
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: this game here? Colorado, I don't like their bullpen, as
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: we all know. They used three guys yesterday. D-backs used two.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: Arizona's number five in bullpen. Their bullpen's been pretty good recently, actually.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: So they definitely have the better bullpen. They're not the
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: fifth best, but they're still better than Colorado by a lot.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: Colorado number 26th. Colorado's the better offense, number five. Arizona's
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: number 18. Arizona's got Merrill Kelly on the mound. He
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: has had a bad season, dude. I think he's pretty
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: much at the end of his career. He's had a
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: decent career, but this year he's fallen off a cliff.
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: He's got a 5 ERA and 1.47 whip. That's not good.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: He's actually better on the road, though. 4.36 road ERA.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: He's got a pitching cores here, though, man. He hasn't
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: made it five innings in either of his last two starts.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: He had a lot of strikeouts last time out against Miami,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: but Yeah, I mean, he's not pitching very well right now.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: The Diamondbacks have lost five of his last seven games.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: He's pretty home run friendly here. He's allowed a lot
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: of home runs. He allows a lot of fly balls.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's going to go well in Coors Field. However,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: he pitched in Coors Field in May, and he had
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: a complete game, one run performance. So what do I know?
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, he pitched really well in that game in
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: Coors Field. Do with that info what you want, I guess.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: And he's faced Colorado at home a couple times since then.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: I think he didn't really do well. So it's crazy
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: that his one good start, he gets Colorado's on the
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: road pretty much. He's got a high hit rate, a
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: high walk rate. His strikeout rate's not good either. These
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: are bad numbers. 1.6 strikeout walk ratio is abysmal. 6.4
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine has gone way down as well. Yeah,
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have it anymore, man. Colorado does have the
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: upper hand against him somewhat in 88 at-bats, 250 average,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: 805 OPS, 18-4 strikeout walk ratio. That ratio is good,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: but I don't trust Kelly here. Mason Adams is pitching
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: for the Rockies. He's kind of a wild card, man. 5.09 ERA, 1.65 whip.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: Those numbers are not good. I know that. And the
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: problem is he sucks at home. He's got a 9
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: ERA at home. He's been actually pretty good on the road,
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: but his home start, His two home starts have gone poorly,
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: and it's obvious why. I mean, it's Coors Field. It's
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: really hard to pitch here. He's not that much of
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: a fly ball pitcher. It doesn't look like, well, I
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, his fly ball rate is still
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: higher than his ground ball rate to a decent degree.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to say about this guy. His
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: hit rate is a little bit high. His walk rate's
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: too high as well. His strikeout rate's all right. He's
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to Arizona, though. They haven't seen him before, so
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: there is that. But he's got a 1.9 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Nine strikeout per nine is pretty good, though.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: Do we trust Adams over Kelly here? Maybe. I mean,
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know. The pressure's on Arizona here, man. I
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: can see the argument for taking Colorado in the first
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: five in this one. If you think Adams, with his unfamiliarity,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: might be able to outpitch Kelly here. Arizona's got 88%
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 66% of the cash on them. They're minus
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: 160 on the money line. Everybody knows Arizona must win,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: so the price is heavy on them, although I thought
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: they would win yesterday because they had the better pitcher
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: on the mound. Today, I don't really see it as
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: much here for Arizona, so I think Colorado in the
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: first five on the run line, plus a half run
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: in the first five, you could maybe play that and
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: Maybe Adams can get you there with that one. I
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: think the over might be the better way to play
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: this game. The money looks like it agrees with that.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: 67% of tickets, 93% of the cash on the over.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: You can find an 11 out there right now. It's
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: juiced a little bit, but 11 is the key number there.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: It's one of the odd numbers. yeah i mean that
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: might be the better way to play this is just
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: take over 11 and expect the pitching to just kind
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: of be messy in this game and we know the
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: colorado's bullpen is bad so hindian what's up man yeah
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: baragos i mean they're solid man they got a lot
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: of energy um i don't know how ryan their uh
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: front man there i don't know how he does what
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: he does like He plays guitar while he's hopping around
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: on his left leg and spinning really fast around on
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: the stage while playing guitar. It's fucking insane, dude. He
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: gets low to the ground and does this spin thing.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: I'm like, how the fuck does this guy do that?
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: You got to be really agile to do that. And
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: I think he's in his mid to late 30s and
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: he's out there doing that shit. Colorado has four years
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: in a row with 100 losses. Yes, things are going
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: really good for them. but yeah, Baragos is good, man,
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you like comedic, um, I don't, what
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: do we even call it, it's like comedic, like, sort
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: of progressive rock, but it's more like, I don't know,
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: it has a little bit more of a pop aspect
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: to it, but it also sounds like video game music,
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: and it has, like, a sort of a fantasy element
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: to it, to it as well, where they just make up, um,
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: characters and stuff. It has a little bit of a
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: horror theme to it as well. I don't, I don't know.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: You got to like listen to it to actually know
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: what we're talking about here, but yeah. Um, yeah, I
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: like them though. Um, yeah, they're definitely fun. All right. Um,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: let me see. Oh, next game is one of my plays.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: And yes, did Colorado get a 100th loss? Let me see. Yeah,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: they did. Uh, so congratulations to them, I guess. Um,
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: They need to move out of Colorado, man. I mean, Colorado,
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: you cannot sustain a Major League Baseball team in high elevation.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: You cannot do it. So, I don't know what to, unless,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: they could roof the stadium. You know what I mean? Like,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: I'm wondering, if you roof the stadium, like, you have
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: more control of the atmosphere. Like, could you eliminate the
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: High elevation aspect of it. That way you might be
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: able to do that. I don't know. Technology. Controlling the weather, man.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's what they need to do. Have a roof stadium.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: Even though I hate roof stadiums. But I don't hate
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: them as much in baseball. Because, I mean, I don't know. Baseball.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, games get rained out in baseball anyway. I
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: hate them in football. Football, you're supposed to be playing
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: in the elements, man. Like men.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: You know?
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: All right. Baseball, you can't really play in the rain.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: All right. Let me see. Oh, next game up is
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: my last play, yes. I want to get through this, man,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: but there's only two WNBA games, and they're not games
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: I want to get involved in. We're going to take
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: Anaheim first five, minus 130 here. You know what we're
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: doing here. We're going to back Walbert Urania again here, man.
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: Can't get enough of Urania, even though he walks too
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: many guys. Urania's good, man, and I think he's still
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: flying under the radar. I think he's the way better
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: pitcher in this matchup. So that's what we're going to do.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: I'm going to avoid Anaheim's bullpen, even though the A's
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: bullpen is even worse. But I just don't want to
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: deal with either bullpen here. Anaheim used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: They almost screwed me not too long ago, so I'm
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: going to avoid them here. The A's use five. Yes,
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: I know the A's bullpen could also implode here, but
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: I'm just going to focus on the starting pitching edge here.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: The A's have the worst bullpen in baseball, even though
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: they're ranked 28th. They're terrible. They're the worst. Anaheim is
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: better at number 23, but mid-4 ZRA, I don't want
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: to trust them. Anaheim's offense sucks. I get it. They're
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: number 30, but the A's offense, I mean, I don't know.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: They're number 13. They've been a little bit questionable. But
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: this is all about the starting pitching here, man. I
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: don't really care about anything else in this game as
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: far as this handicap. Now, the A's did end a
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: long losing streak here yesterday with a win. The A's
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: had a huge comeback in that game. The A's scored
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: like seven runs late in the game to win that
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: game 9-7. They ended a six-game losing streak. And normally
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: I would say, yeah, when a team loses, when they
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: end a losing streak like that, a lot of times
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: they will have momentum and they'll play well again in
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: the next game. I'm just not so sure about that.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, they put in a lot of effort to
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: come back in that game. The A's are not a
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: good team. And again, it comes down to the starting
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: pitching in this one for me. And Urania is just
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: a way better pitcher here. Even though he's 22, I mean,
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: I told you early on this season, I liked what
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: this guy's metrics looked like. And he's definitely good. It's
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: just he's got to fix his walk issues. But he's
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: got a 2.74 ERA, 1.21 whip. That's pretty good. I
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: know he's not as good on the road, 3.49 road ERA.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: And you might say, well, isn't that a problem because
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: he's pitching in the A's stadium here? Well, he pitched
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: there on June 20th. He had a five-inning shutout in
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: that game. So it seems like it's not that much
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: of a problem for him. And the other good thing
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: about him for this stadium is he's an extreme ground
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: ball pitcher. He doesn't allow many home runs. So we've
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: seen him already pitch in the stadium. So he's kind
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: of familiar with it now. He did well in that start.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: And five innings is all we need from him in
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: this one. So, you know, if he goes five innings again,
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: that should be good enough for us as long as
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: he pitches well here. But yeah, the fact that he
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: induces a lot of ground balls will help him in
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: a stadium like this. Urania, he's also in good form
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: right now. He's coming off a seven-inning shutout against Minnesota.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: He was awesome in that one. I believe we had
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: some sort of under in that game. Do we have
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: a first five under in that game? I forget. No,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: I think we had Anaheim in that game. That was
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: that game I was talking about. We had Anaheim in
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: that game, and they blew the lead. They were winning
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: the game 3-0. They blew the lead, and it went
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: into extra innings, and they wound up winning the game
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: in extras. Yeah, that game was a rollercoaster. So, of course,
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: now that I exclude the bullpens this time, you know
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's going to lose the first five and then win
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: at the end. That's what's going to happen here. Hopefully not.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Urania, I mean, he's pitching well. His walk
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: rate's gone down recently, too. He's got a 20-3 strikeout
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: walk ratio this month. And if you expand it to
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: his last four starts, which is going to bring in
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: a start against the Yankees, where he was really good.
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: He has a 28-3 strikeout walk ratio over that span.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: And he faced some good offenses here. Yankees, Pittsburgh, Washington,
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: even Minnesota's not bad. So, yeah, Urania, I mean, I
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: think he's figuring it out. His command's been better recently.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: He's in good form here. His hit rate's pretty low. Again,
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is very high. That's a problem. But
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: he's also a decent strikeout pitcher too. 2.1 strikeout walk ratio, yeah,
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: I get it. That's not a good number. He's got
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: to fix his walks, but everything else is good here.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: And again, his walk number's gone down recently. He's got
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: an 8.7 strikeout per nine. That's not bad. His numbers
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: against the A's are good. He's faced them three times
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: this year, I think, and once in this stadium, like
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: I said. 36 at-bats against them. They only have one
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: extra base hit from McNeil, who seems to be the
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: only guy in this lineup that can actually hit him.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: Eight strikeouts, three walks. That was a double from McNeil,
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: if you're wondering. 250 average allowed, 585 OPS. Three walks,
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: eight strikeouts. So, yeah. I mean, again, the walk rate's
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: not really great there, but still. His numbers are pretty
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: good against the A's, and we're going to fade Jeffrey
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: Springs in this one, who has been quite bad this year.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 3: 6.18 ERA.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: 1.47 whip. I mean, this almost looks too easy to
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: do this, but Springs has been bad. He's been really
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: bad at home. 6.94 home ERA, 292 upon a batting
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: average at home. His home run rate is quite bad
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: at home. Nothing going well for him here. He's been
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: bad recently. I mean, he had one good start here
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: against Seattle, but that was in Seattle, which is a
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: much more pitcher-friendly park. He was somewhat okay against Seattle
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: at home after that, but of course, Seattle's Also not
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: a good offense, although I know Anaheim isn't either. But then,
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know, he regressed. He had a bad start
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: against Tampa last time out, and that wasn't even at home.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: That was on the road. His walk rate hasn't really
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: been that great recently. His strikeout rate's not really that good.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: He had a really bad month of August, and his
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: home run rate is insanely high. He's allowed 33 home
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: runs in 138 and a third innings. His hit rate's
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: really bad. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher. So he's...
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: Unlike Urania, who has more ground balls than fly balls,
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: Springs almost has two times as many fly balls as
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: ground balls. So Urania is the way better style of
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: pitcher for a stadium like this. Springs is not. Balls
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: spring off of his bat. Balls spring off of the
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: bat against him, I should say. And out of the yard.
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: He also is not a good strikeout pitcher either. And
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: his walk rate's not really that good. He's got a 1.9
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, so... That's also worse than what Urania's posting. 7.1
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: Ks per 9 is also whatever. It's not great. And
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: his numbers against Anaheim are actually really bad, believe it
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: or not, even though their offense sucks. They have 40
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him. It's a decent sample here. 14-7 strikeout
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. Mike Trout does a lot of damage against him.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: 300 average, 904 OPS. These are some Ugly numbers here, man.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: Some bad numbers. And in fact, he's faced Anaheim in
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: the stadium back in that same series in June. He
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: was awful in that start. He was terrible in that one.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: And I believe, I thought he faced Anaheim one more
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: time this year. Maybe I'm wrong about that. No, that
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: looks like that was his only start against them this year. Yeah,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: it was bad. So, yeah, we're going to take Anaheim
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: first five here. I think we have a starting pitching
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: mismatch in this game. So we're doing it. Anaheim looks
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit public, which worries me. 80% of tickets, 87%.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them I think the money is
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: agreeing with me on this minus 130 something is the
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: full game price the first five prices around the same
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: for whatever reason. So you would think the first five
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: price would be heavier than this, but yeah, we're going
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: to take Anaheim first five money line here. If the
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: money line gets a little bit too juicy, you could
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: lay the half run and get the price down. But yeah,
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: I like it here.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: Pressurize the stadium. Oh yes, sir. All right. That means you,
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: that means you skipped some of my analysis, man. On
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: a game that I have a play on. All right,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: we have an ESPN doubleheader. Houston and Seattle are playing
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: the late game of the doubleheader here. The show's gone
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: way too long already, by the way. We got the
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: under right in yesterday's game, but we got really lucky.
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, Houston wound up going with basically a bullpen game.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know why Javier exited the game because he
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: went two pretty much clean innings there. I have no
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: idea why they took him out of the game. Gilbert
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: was way worse than I thought. So that was not
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: a good read by me, but we still got it
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: right because Seattle's offense is pathetic. So at least that
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: part of it was right. Will Seattle bounce back here?
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: They might. Because remember, Seattle was in a return home
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: spot yesterday, so that was a negative spot. They got
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: shut out at home, and what do I always say?
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: When you have a team that does bad in a
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: return home spot or a team that gets shut out
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: at home, they bounce back typically after a game like that.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: And Seattle qualifies for both coming into this game. So
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: even though I think they're eliminated at this point, if
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken, they at least might have some motivation
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: in this one. They could play spoiler to Houston at least,
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean? Houston, Seattle's probably sick of
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: Houston winning this division most years, although Seattle won it
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: last year. But, yeah, I mean, Seattle, they don't like Houston,
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: so they probably will show up for this game just
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: to try to spoil Houston's season if they can. Houston's
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: been the better bullpen this year. They're number 14, Seattle
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 2: number 21, although neither bullpen's been that good. Houston is
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: number nine in offense overall. Seattle number 29, so Houston's
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: way better offensively than Seattle. Houston's going with Ethan Pecco
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: on the mound here. Interesting. You know, I mean, he's
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: a young guy. When I looked at his scouting, it
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: didn't really jump off the page at me, but he's
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: actually been pretty good recently. He's got a 3.77 ERA
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: on this season. 1.12 whip. It's a small sample, but
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: these numbers are good. He's made two relief appearances and
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: four starts so far. He's not as good on the road, really. 4.8
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: road ERA. But this is a pitcher from the stadium here.
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: And he's in good form recently. His last two starts
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: were both good. He went five and two-thirds innings along
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: one run in both starts at Tampa Bay. That's impressive.
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: And then at home against Kansas City is not as impressive.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're not a good offense on the road
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: at all. But Petko's been pretty good in his last
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: few starts here. Really, his first two appearances were shaky,
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: but since then he's actually been fairly good. He's gone
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: five-plus innings in three of the four, and he's allowed
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: two or fewer earned runs in all of them. So
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: he's actually not pitching too badly here. His hit rate's
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: not bad. His walk rate is still too high, though,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate's not very good. So his strikeout-walk ratio... yeah,
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: that's still bad. 1.6. That's not good. Six strike up
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: or nine. Not that good, but I don't know what
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: to say, man. He's in decent form right now. He's
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: pitching somewhat effectively here, even though he's not much of
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: a strikeout pitcher and the Mariners have never faced him.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: So he might pitch well here against the Mariners. And
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: of course, Houston's got to be motivated at least because
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: they're trying to make the playoffs here and they're going
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: to have to win their division. Most like, most likely
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. So they do need to keep
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: winning here. Um, Yeah, so Pecco might actually do okay here.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: He gets a weak lineup on the road that hasn't
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: seen him before, and the fact that he's pitched well
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: over his last couple starts. George Kirby is pitching for Seattle.
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: I think he's kind of a mediocre pitcher, man. 4.24 ERA, 1.39 whip.
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: He has not really had that great of a season.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: He is better at home, as you probably expect, because
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: it's Seattle. 3.27 home ERA. Not really in good form recently, though.
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: He's got a 4.76 ERA this month. Although, granted, two
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: of the starts were on the road. One was in
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: the A's stadium, so you probably have to give him
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: a pass for that. But there's no excuse for pitching
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: poorly at Anaheim, man. I mean, they suck offensively, and
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: he was not good in that one either. He had
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: a ton of walks in that outing, so he's not
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: really in great form right now. 15-8 strikeout walk ratio
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: this month with well over one hit allowed per inning.
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: None of that is good. his hit rate's way too
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: high on the season. He's been way too hittable. He
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: doesn't usually walk many guys, though, and his strikeout rate's
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: not really that good either, though. So I don't know
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: what to think about him, man. He's got a 3.3
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, which is fine, but it's not as
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: good as what he's posted in the past. He's having
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: his worst season, for sure. He was better than this
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: the last few years, so I don't know what's going
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: on with him this year. He's been way too hittable.
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you. You know, he
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: still doesn't really walk, guys. 7.6 Ks per nine has
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: gone way down this year, too, so his strikeout stuff
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: has diminished for some reason. He's not even old. He's 28,
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: so I have no idea what's going on with him.
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Houston are typically not too bad, and
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: 195 at-bats, 39-8 strikeout walk ratio, 267 average isn't really
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: that good, but 629 OPS is definitely low, so they
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: have not hit him for power at the very least.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: I think this game is probably an under, but the
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: money does not agree with me. 75% of tickets on
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: the under, 94% of the cash on the over. But again,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: it's a pretty low total, seven and a half. So oddsmakers,
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: they put up an eight initially and it got driven
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: down slightly. So it is a low total. So the
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers seemingly expect this to be a low scoring game.
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: I agree. I think the under makes sense and the
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: money is all over Houston here. The public is on Seattle.
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: That's crazy. Why would the public be on Seattle, dude,
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: when they have the worst record here? You would have
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: to think the public would be off of them at
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: this point. I have no idea. Like, everybody knows Houston
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: needs to win, right? But you're getting Houston as an underdog. And,
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: you know, I kind of like that usually when you're
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: getting a team that's in a must-win scenario, but the
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: market price isn't even really like, you know, like the
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: market price is still pricing the other team as a favorite.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: That's crazy. 73% of tickets are on Seattle, 86% of
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: the cash on Houston. The money line is around minus
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: 120-something here. You know, I do lean Houston here. Pecco,
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: he might actually wind up doing well in this game.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: Who knows? I think the motivation for Houston, the fact
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: they're an underdog here. I know the situation does favor Seattle, though,
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: as far as the bounce-back spot and whatever, but I
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: don't know, man. Pecco plus Houston's bullpen might actually have
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: the upper hand here along with the motivation, but we
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: will see. And then San Diego and the Dodgers, I
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: don't know what to say about this. I mean, well,
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: San Diego has more motivation, right? Because they're in a
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: three-way tie now in the wildcard race. So San Diego
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: could theoretically host the wildcard round here, which nobody thought
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: that would happen like a week ago. That's crazy. Dodgers,
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: they're on a hot streak right now. The Dodgers have
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: won five in a row. They shut out San Diego
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: yesterday and For San Diego to win this game, it's
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: going to take a lot because the Dodgers are a
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: huge favorite and they probably should be because the Dodgers
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: have a way better starting pitcher on the mound in
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: this game. The Dodgers used a shitload of relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, I told you it was a bullpen game yesterday.
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: What the fuck is this? They used eight relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: Is that what that is? I would not trust the
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: Dodgers bullpen in this game. I'll tell you that. San
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: Diego only used two and they didn't use any of
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: their better relievers. So San Diego clearly has a bullpen
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: advantage here. They're number seven, but I think they're a
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: better bullpen than that. Dodgers are not a bad bullpen.
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: They're actually number eight right now, but their ERA is
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: like almost half a run worse than San Diego, and
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: you saw what the usage was yesterday. But the Dodgers
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: have their grinder on the mound in Yamamoto, so He
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: usually goes like seven, eight innings. So that will rescue
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers bullpen. Maybe that's part of the reason why
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers did the bullpen game yesterday. Probably because they
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 2: knew that they were going to have Yamamoto pitch in
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: this game. And he's their guy that consistently goes deep
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: into outings like that. Dodgers are the number two offense.
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: San Diego has moved up offensively, though. They're number 17.
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: Not too bad. But San Diego also has Robbie Ray
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: on the mound. He's not very good. 3.6 ERA. I
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: know that's not too bad. 1.33 whip, though. That indicates
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: that his ERA should be worse than it is, and
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: he's not really that good on the road. 4.02 road ERA.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 2: San Diego got him in a trade from the Giants here.
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: He pitched okay in Coors Field last time out, so
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: you got to give him credit for that, but it's
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: hilarious that his two starts prior to that were both worse,
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: and they were both in pitcher-friendly parks in San Diego
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: and then in San Francisco against San Francisco. Against his
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: former team, he pitched like ass in that game. It's
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: ridiculous that in two games where he should have had
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: a better pitching environment, he did horrible in those games,
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: and then he pitches well in Coors Field. What the fuck?
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 2: It makes no sense, dude. But I don't trust him.
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: His ERA is almost 9 this month, even with that
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: decent start against Colorado. 12 to 10 strikeout walk ratio
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: is really, really ugly. I don't like it, man. He
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: pitched pretty well, though, in the month of August, so
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: I will give him that. But right now, he doesn't
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: appear to be in great form here. I don't know
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: how he pitched that well in Coors Field because he's
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 2: a fly ball pitcher, so I don't know how he
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: did that. he's got a low hit rate so I'll
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: give him that but his walk rate's way too high
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is horrible his strikeout rate's low too
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio is so bad 1.7 it's 1.2
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: with San Diego that's like bad enough that you should
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: be out of the league almost man I mean, that's
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: really bad stuff there. Let me see. And then he's
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: got a 7.7 strikeout per nine. I mean, that's not
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: too bad, but the walk rate is really bad. He's
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: not great against the Dodgers. They have 193 at bats
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: against us. They have a lot of experience against him.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: 51 to 30 strikeout walk ratio is absolutely terrible. They
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: have a ton of walks against them. 15 home runs
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: against them too. 259 average, not really that high, but
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: a 924 OPS. So they've hit him for a lot
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: of power. I don't think Ray has a great matchup here, man.
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: I really don't. He's not as good on the road.
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: He's not good against the Dodgers. He's not in good form. Yamamoto,
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 2: like I said, is pitching for the Dodgers. 2.51 ERA,.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: 87 whip. I mean, he's in the Cy Young discussion,
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: but he's not going to win it. But that whip
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: is really, really good. He's not as good at home
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: for whatever reason 3.13 home ERA but he's still really
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: good either way he's in good form right now his
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: last two starts are both really good he allowed one
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: run and four hits across 14 innings with 17 strikeouts
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: and three walks both were against the pitiful Reds though.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: He had one bad start in here at home against St. Louis.
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: It wasn't even really that bad. He just got kind
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: of unlucky in that one, I think. He didn't really
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: allow many hits or walks in that one. His strikeout
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: rate was still good, so he's not really pitching poorly
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: at all here. In fact, he's pitching well. He's got
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: good command numbers here recently and on the season. His
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: hit rate is really low. His walk rate's pretty low.
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is not high, but it's like almost
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: one per inning. 4.3 strikeout walk ratio is quite good
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 2: i mean he doesn't walk many guys 8.9 case per
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: nine again i don't know why it's gone down since
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: you know the last couple seasons but whatever uh still
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: not bad and he's also good against san diego in
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: 112 at bats 232 average 679 ops 32 to 10
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio the dodgers should win this game um
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: you know i mean the motivation will be on san
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: diego here um I don't know if that's going to
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: be enough. The matchup favors the Dodgers here, in my opinion.
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: The money doesn't agree. 90% of tickets, 89% of the
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 2: cash on the Dodgers. So the money's fading them. Dodgers
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: around minus 220 full game. But like I said, I
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: would lean Dodgers first five here. But you might have
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: to lay like a minus one run line with them
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: in the first five or minus one and a half even.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: I would not want to do that. Needed the Dodgers
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: to score that many runs just in the first five.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: You're just asking to lose it, man, if you do that.
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: But I think the Dodgers' biggest advantage is in the
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: first five. You could do like a Dodgers' first five
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: money line and parlay that with the Braves or something
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: like that. I don't know. I mean, you know me.
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: I'm opposed to parlays, though. I don't know. The money's
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 2: coming in on the over in this game pretty strongly
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: as well. The total's 8-8.5. I mean, if you look
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: at it that way, that means you could maybe play
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers team total over, but you'll need him to
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: score six runs probably, which is quite a bit. And
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: the other problem with that is you're taking Yamamoto out
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: of the equation, and I don't think you want to
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: do that because he has the upper hand in this matchup.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: So do what you want with all that info, but
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: that's it for Major League Baseball here. We have two
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 2: WNBA games, which don't interest me. Atlanta, New York, I mean,
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: this one is a zigzag potential here. This is on
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: USA Network. These teams are both jockeying for playoff positioning.
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: I don't even know, where do these teams stand in
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 2: the playoffs picture here? Every team, I think, only has
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: one game left right now. Atlanta is, yeah, Atlanta I
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: think still kind of needs to win because they're, well,
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: it depends on what their tiebreaker situation is against Indiana, actually.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: Because they're one game ahead of Indiana. Atlanta would prefer
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: to host in the first round. You know what I mean?
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 2: So they might have that reason to win here. But
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 2: they did just win against New York. And New York
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: is the number eight. And they're probably motivated to try
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: to avoid Minnesota. Although Minnesota isn't guaranteed. I don't think
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: they're guaranteed. Or no, they are, I guess. I think
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: they are guaranteed the one. I think that's what that
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: asterisk is. I think Golden State probably lost the tiebreaker.
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Yep, so Minnesota's already clinched the number
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: one now. So New York, they probably want to avoid that.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? They probably do not want
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: to have to play Minnesota in the first round. So
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: New York has a little bit more motivation, actually, I think,
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: to maybe win this game here. And they did just
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: lose here to Atlanta, like I said, here at home.
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 2: So it's the same game being played again. Atlanta won
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: the game by 11. Atlanta was a one and a
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: half point favorite in that game. The game here, Atlanta is... Actually,
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: the line is flipped to New York being one and
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 2: a half point favored in this one, or minus two.
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: So that's weird because the money looks like it's on Atlanta,
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: but I do not agree with that. I like New
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: York in this game. New York, 67% of tickets on
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 2: them and 89% of the cash on Atlanta. I don't
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: understand any of that. Like, why would the public be
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: on New York when they're the lesser record and they
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: just lost here to Atlanta? Why would the public be
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: on them? That doesn't make sense to me. But I
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: think the odds makers know that the zigzag is in
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: effect here. So that's why Atlanta was a one and
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: a half point favorite in game one. And despite the
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: fact they won, or the previous game, I mean, despite,
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: I'm already in playoff mode. Despite the fact that they won,
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: New York is now favorite here. So I don't really
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: want to lay the points with New York because the
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: line has shifted a little bit too much. It might mean,
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: is there an injury going on here? Let me see. No,
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was just Jones who's already been injured
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: for Atlanta. And then Sabali has been out for a
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: while for New York. So I don't think anything is
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: changing here. So the odds makers are really just shifting
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 2: the line to account for the zigzag. But I do
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: think the zigzag is the correct approach here. If you
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: look at what happened in this last game, there was
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: a big free throw disparity here Atlanta went to the
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: line 30 times compared to the, I almost said the Knicks,
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: the Liberty 23. Atlanta was plus six from the free
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: throw line. I know that's not a lot, but it's
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 2: not huge. There was a bit of a disparity there.
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 2: Other than that, yeah, it was a little bit of
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 2: a closer game, but the Liberty also won the rebound
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 2: battle here, man. It's just the fact they lost the
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 2: turnover battle. So when you win the rebound battle, you
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: usually don't lose anything. And you usually don't lose by
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: double digits, but the turnovers just killed New York in
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 2: this game. So I think they might be able to
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 2: clean that up. So maybe that's the biggest outlier here
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: is the fact that the home team lost the turnover battle.
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 2: That and the home team losing the free throw battle.
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: Usually that doesn't happen. Usually the home team wins both
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: of those. I mean, Atlanta is probably the more physical
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: paint presence team because Angel Reese is there, man. So,
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe that's legitimate that they had more free
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: throw attempts, but still There are some zigzag opportunities, I think,
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: in this game, especially because, again, Liberty, big turnover differential
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: in that game that they were on the negative side of.
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 2: They could fix that. And then the rebounding, they actually won,
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: so they actually played better in that game than it looks.
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: So I like New York in this one. You could
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: play the money line if you want to, and that's
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 2: the way to kind of avoid the line shift like
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 2: that is to just play the money line, although you
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: have to pay a little bit more juice for that
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 2: Then we have Dallas at Seattle on USA Network, CNBC.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: Dallas is headed to the playoffs. They're probably trying to
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: avoid having to play Minnesota as well. They're in the
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 2: same position as New York, kind of, where they kind
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: of need to win for that. But this is Seattle's
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 2: last game, I'm pretty sure. So I think Seattle, this
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 2: is the end of the season for them. This is
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: their last game. It's at home. So I think Seattle
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 2: might show up for that reason. Like, just to put
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: a good game together at home, last game... dallas might
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 2: be looking ahead to the playoffs already you know what
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 2: i mean like i see these spots a lot and
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 2: the team that is not going to the playoffs a
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: lot of times plays better in a game like this
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: because this is their you know they go all they
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: go all out they have nothing to lose in their
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 2: last game whereas dallas might already be distracted and looking
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 2: ahead to the playoffs you know so i would lead
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 2: seattle in this game dallas is coming off a loss
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: to phoenix but um That ended a long winning streak
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 2: for them, though. They had a six-game win streak. You
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: know what I talk about a lot of times when
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 2: a team loses a win streak like that. A lot
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 2: of times they will be hung over into the next game,
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: you know. This player from Minnesota here absolutely looks like
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: a dude. I'm sorry. And Miles over here with the
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: afro almost does, too. But, like, who is this player? Like,
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: that is definitely a dude. We already have dudes in
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: the WNBA, man. I mean, Griner, you know, we backed
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 2: Griner's team last night with Connecticut. I mean, we already
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 2: have dudes here, so whatever. Anyway, Dallas losing their win
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 2: streak there. That could hang them over coming into this game,
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: you know. Seattle, again, might just go all out for
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 2: the last game. They've lost four games in a row here,
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 2: so they might go all out to try to win
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 2: a final game here. They're returning home from the road,
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: so you do have to worry about that a little bit.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: It was only a two-game road trip to Golden State
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: and Vegas, so they're staying in the Pacific time zone
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: at least. It wasn't that long of a road trip.
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: And because it's their last game, you know, and it's
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 2: a TV game-ish, maybe they will be focused enough. I
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: don't know. But my lean in this game would be
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 2: to take the points with Seattle. The money doesn't agree
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: with me on that either. It was agreeing with me earlier.
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 2: You're telling me the public is on Seattle? Give me
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 2: a break. There's no way. 67% of the tickets on Seattle.
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 2: The public is not playing Seattle in this game. I'm sorry,
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 2: but there's no way that they are. Even though they're
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: getting 9.5, 10 points here, it's still not the case.
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 2: 74% of cash on Dallas. I don't buy any of that.
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: I would lean Seattle. I certainly don't buy that the
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: public is on Seattle. impossible. Anyway, that's going to do it. Well,
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 2: thank you, sir. I don't know why people watch this
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: whole show. To be honest, I mean, my plays have
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 2: been pretty good, but I don't know. It's all autism.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: I'm assuming it's annoying, whatever. The plays today, one more time,
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 2: are under 7.5 in Brewers-Phillies. We're on the Mets money
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 2: line and the Anaheim first five money line. I think
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: we have pitching advantages in both those games, so And
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 2: I guess both pitchers having an advantage in that underplay.
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Learn to tote on Twitter.
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 2: Learn to tote on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: Boost it. Hype it. Comment. You know, all that stuff.
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: You know, I saw the negative comment the other day
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: from that random person who was making fun of my
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: AI thumbnails. Like, dude, I'm trying to save time here.
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 2: Everybody uses AI thumbnails now. What the fuck? Like, you
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 2: don't have to watch the show. You don't have to comment.
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Whatever. Like, would I get more? eyes
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 2: on this thing if i had non-ai thumbnails yeah probably
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 2: but whatever man i'm lazy it's the way that it
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: is fuck you i don't care um that's all i
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 2: got to say about that i don't give a fuck
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 2: um whatever if you want my plays then shut the
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: fuck up and win some money i don't know what
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 2: to tell you um i forget who that person was
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 2: but you'll probably go see you'll see the comment it
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 2: was i don't know It was on the NFL video
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 2: from over the weekend. I don't know if it was
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: the live one or the other one that I re-upload,
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 2: but whatever. What else do I have to promote? We're
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 2: on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Those numbers are doing better recently.
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 2: I want to see those keep going up, man, because
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: it's monetized. So if I could actually make some significant
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 2: money that way, that would be sick. But we're not
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 2: at that point, obviously. But I like the trend, though.
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: So check it out on Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Dude, if
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 2: you throw it on in the background, that helps me, too, so.
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 2: You got to deal with the ads, you know, but
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 2: that's the way that it is. Covered in you because
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 2: of my ukulele channel on YouTube. You can check that out. Patreon.com
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: slash learn to tote if you want to support me
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: that way. Loser cast every Tuesday night. I was out
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 2: last night, as Hindian pointed out in the chat there.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: You know, I was at a concert. I got another
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: one tonight. I got tons, tons of fucking shows here, man.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: Another one on Sunday. We got Mastodon tonight and Weezer
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 2: on Sunday. I'm excited. Dude, Weezer's one of my favorite bands,
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 2: so I gotta go see them again. I went to
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 2: the Blue Album tour they did a couple years ago
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 2: where they played that whole album. Amazing album. That was
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 2: a really, really strong concert. They played some kind of
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 2: off-beat type of stuff from long ago. They played You
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: Gave Your Love to Me Softly, which is one of
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 2: their old B-sides from the 90s. I'm like, holy fuck,
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: this is awesome. They're playing that song. I think they
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: did a couple of Pinkerton songs as well. Love that shit.
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: All right. What else? And I love Mastodon, too. R.I.P.
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 2: to Brent. This is going to be like the fourth
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 2: or fifth time I'm seeing them tonight. Hopefully the crowd
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 2: is not going to mosh me into oblivion because it
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 2: is a metal show. Their new album is interesting, man.
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 2: They added keys to the mix. A lot of guys
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: don't like their progressive... I don't know, their move towards
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: the progressive, let's say. I don't mean politically. I mean
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: progressive rock. They're not really a political band. Most of
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 2: their music is, like, introspective. But, like, pretty much all
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 2: their albums are about people they know dying. So, or
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 2: at least have that inspiration to them. Like, I'm pretty
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 2: sure that Brent's death was, like, one of the main
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 2: inspirations on this new album. And it's good. I like it. It's, yeah,
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 2: it's long. I don't know. It's interesting. But I like their...
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 2: move towards like bringing progressive elements in, but staying like
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 2: really fucking heavy too. I don't know. So it's like
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 2: sludge progressive. Now I love that shit. It's like, it's
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 2: like two of my favorite genres mixed together. Anyway, I'm rambling.
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 2: What else do we have? Oh, and the giants G
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 2: spot podcast to Jackson dart might be out for the season. Like,
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 2: I don't even know if we're going to do the show.
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 2: To be honest, we were all excited. Giants with Jackson. Dude,
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: the only reason I'm doing this show pretty much is
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 2: because of Jackson Dart. Now he's fucking hurt again. I'm
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 2: so fucking pissed, dude. I thought that with Harbaugh coaching,
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 2: it looked like they were going to have Dart not
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 2: putting himself in danger as much, which I don't know
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 2: if he really did necessarily on that play. But yeah,
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, his knee got wrecked. I'm fucking pissed. I'm
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 2: fucking pissed. I love Dart. I want to be right
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: about him being a good QB. I think I am.
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 2: It's just, I don't know if he's ever going to
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 2: be healthy. Anyway, whatever. That's going to do it. Speaking
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 2: of which, yeah, subscribe. You'll get the football content that
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 2: we'll have going on here. Wednesday is the day where
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 2: I usually buckle down. Although I know that one of
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 2: the plays that I really liked this week situation, the
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 2: line already moved like three fucking points. So I don't
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 2: know what I'm going to do with that game because
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 2: I don't want to pass up like somehow playing that
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 2: side in that game. But they went from an, you
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 2: might know what I'm talking about. They went from a
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 2: small underdog at the open to being like a three
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 2: point favorite. And the only hope is that the public
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 2: is going to drive the line back the other way,
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 2: or maybe because it's going to hit that key number three,
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 2: maybe there'll be some buyback and we can, maybe lay
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: two and a half on that game or something. I
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 2: don't know. I got to keep an eye on it
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 2: and see because that's one of the best situations of
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 2: the week. But the number is not going to be
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 2: great in that one. And maybe we have to wind
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 2: up playing the money line on it. I don't know, man.
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 2: I got to figure it out. But yeah, be on
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 2: the lookout for all the football content. Like I said,
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 2: I'll do a hockey preview, but I don't know the
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 2: personnel at all in hockey, dude. I do not. So
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 2: it would just be me completely speculating and looking at odds.
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if that's even... interesting or good.
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Hockey is so hard to predict.
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 2: You never really know which teams are going to be
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 2: on the rise and which teams are going to be
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 2: on the fall. There are always some teams that are
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 2: just real surprises every year, so I don't know, but
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 2: that's going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody. Well,
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 2: thank you. Thank you, everybody. I appreciate it. Saab, Hindian,
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 2: Dirty Saag, I think it was just the three of
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 2: you today, right? I appreciate it, everybody. Peace.
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have.
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone.
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 2: On Let me pull.
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 3: You out That.
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 1: Bad luck fights hard But it don't get the crown
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 2: You're still here now.