Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 149 - 10/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 149 - 10/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 149 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Friday. The work week has come to an
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end. The weekend is upon us.
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Another huge week in the betting arena or a weekend on tap, I
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should say, with some huge matchups here, NFL, college
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football. You also have some UFC biting to
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talk about for today because I do have a play for you guys for
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tomorrow in epic, extremely heavily bet, very lopsided,
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contrarian favorite with a with a very interesting reverse line
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move. So you have a play here in the
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UFC for you, but for today before we, you know, turn the
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page to the weekend, I got a three pack 2 college football
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bets for you as well as one play in the NBA.
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And then after we finish that up, we're going to talk about
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our final best bet card for the weekend.
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So I'll give you the UFC play for tomorrow as well as some
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college football and some NFL. So let's see if we can finish
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off the week on a hot note. Now, looking back toward
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yesterday, the good and the bad. The good, which I would argue
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was great, fantastic, amazing. Every adjective you could throw
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at it was the Rams, baby, the Los Angeles Rams.
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Now, what was the one thing we talked about in yesterday's
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podcast when it came to that Rams Vikings game?
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It was the fact that it was the most lopsided NFL game that we
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have seen all year long. Fully admit Publix had a good
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year, especially last couple weeks here where the big popular
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favorites have really covered at a pretty much unprecedented
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rate. But we got some revenge last
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night because last night we saw 90 percent, 9909 out of 10
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people going with the Vikings. And even though they were
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incredibly popular, most lopsided play of the year, we
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actually saw that line plus 3 fall down to 2 1/2 toward the
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Rams. So again, that is like if you
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could, you know, go to the Hall of Fame for a data-driven model
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play there. That was it.
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The fact that everyone was going with the Vikes, but the line
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fell to the Rams. So 2 takeaways there go
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contrarian and heavily backed games.
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But of course, contrarian is just a foundational philosophy.
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You got to apply that sharp action and the fact that we saw
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that line get down to 2 1/2, even though everyone is playing
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obviously the Vikes in that spot, that told us that smart
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money was going with the Rams and wouldn't you know it, the
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Rams come through bigly for the team.
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And that interesting nugget about teams after they play the
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Detroit Lions now. O and five straight up.
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So it happened, of course, last night with a great contrarian
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epic Hall of Fame hit with the Rams.
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So I was happy to see that. Sadly, that was our only win.
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So overall, 1 and 3 -, 2.1 units.
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We got the Rams. We couldn't get Jordan Addison
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over receiving yards. I was hoping maybe at the end he
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would catch a A ball for us to go over that that number.
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Fortunately, he did not. The Devils let us down in the
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NHL. And then the one that was really
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frustrating was Syracuse because we got Syracuse at plus 5 1/2.
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Did you guys notice that Syracuse closed at plus 4 1/2?
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So we beat the closing line. We did our part.
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We diagnosed that game perfectly.
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But here's the thing about sports betting.
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Sometimes you cap it perfectly. You do your part, put the team
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on the field or the court or the ice, whatever it may be, they do
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not do their part. So even though we beat the
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closing line, Q Scott rolled bunch of pick sixes, that one
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was was pretty ugly. But I will I'll remember that
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Rams game for quite a while. And that's the kind of game that
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I think opens a lot of people's eyes to data-driven sports
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betting. Like, you know, I tweet out, of
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course, every article that I write for vison.com, which you
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can find on my Twitter page at Josh under score Insights.
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And usually it gets good amount of traffic, good amount of
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engagements. But when I tweeted the fact that
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90% of bets were on the Vikings, it really kind of blew up.
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And I think that kind of just opened a lot of eyes because,
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you know, we if you're a data-driven better like me, you
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know, this that's blueprint, you know, super lopsided.
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Go the go with the RLM play the other way.
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But for a lot of new betters, like before the game started, I
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was seeing on Twitter, you know, Vikings are going to kill them
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Vikings. This line is way too low.
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The odds makers got it wrong. And then of course, what
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happened came through there with the Rams.
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So that's the type of play where if you were on the Vikings,
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don't, you know, don't kick yourself, don't kill yourself
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over it. That's the type of play where it
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kind of makes you see the light and you make sure that next time
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you're never on that 90% side. So I hope that that that example
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of of the Rams last night kind of really showed a lot of people
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that, hey, don't bet with your gut instinct.
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Don't bet with your bias. Don't think you're smarter than
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the sports books. Follow the smart money.
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And smart money obviously was with the Rams because the line
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fell in their favor. Even though only 10%, we were
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the 10% that was able to, you know, kind of kind of be brave
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and go the other way and go contrarian.
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So Rams an absolutely epic hit last night.
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So looking toward today guys again, three pack 2 college
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football games, one NBA. You guys know the drill. 3 bets.
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Let's try to get two of them, go 2 and one and eke out a winning
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night. Now, first put on the board for
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me. Let's talk some college football
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because there's a bunch of college football games tonight
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and we've been having pretty good success.
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Knock on wood with these Friday night dogs.
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So I want to start off with Louisville or if you're actually
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in the South, it's Louisville. But Louisville at BC Boston
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College near and dear to my heart, but going to this one
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6:30 PM Eastern Time game. Louisville is 4:00 and 3:00.
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But they started four and oh, they've lost three straight or
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lost three of their last four. Just came up short against
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Miami, 52 to 45, did not cover as a four and a half point home
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dog. Meanwhile, BC four and three.
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Similarly, they started four and one.
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They've now lost two straight. Just got rolled by Vatek. 42 to
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21. Did not cover as an 8 1/2 point
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Rd. dog. So what we seen across the
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market here, well, this line open with Louisville around a 6
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1/2 point Rd. favorite and the public is leaning toward
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Louisville. They're getting across the
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market upwards of almost 60% of spread bets.
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And we saw an early move toward Louisville minus 6 1/2 up to -7
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1/2. However, what's important is
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kind of game day buyback. And I'm noticing some sharp
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buyback on the BC Eagles. Eagles at 7 1/2 are now juiced
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up plus 7 1/2 -, 115. And it looks like some shops
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might even be getting down to seven.
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Like if you look across your live odds page right now, I
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actually see a couple books that are at 7.
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Circa in Vegas is down to seven. That's an extremely sharp book.
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the Super book as well, another sharp book.
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When you start to see those really good Vegas books start to
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fall back a little bit, usually that's predictive of the market.
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Overall, really good book. Like Pinnacle, a global book is
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plus 7 1/2 -, 115. But again, Super Book and Circa
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are down to seven. So tells me, you know, once we
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got to 7 1/2, that's when there was a lot of resistance that
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showed up and got down on BC plus the hook to start to bring
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it back down towards 7. Now BC is getting a pretty good
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bet split. They're only getting around 42%
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of spread bets, but 66% of spread dollars.
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So really good low bets, higher dollars bet split in a heavily
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bet primetime game. BC also checks off quite a few
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boxes here, conference dog ACC. So that built in familiarity,
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leveling the playing field, benefiting the team, getting
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points. Eagles also have correlative
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betting value as a basically a touchdown in a hook dog and a
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relatively low total game. 53 was the total in this one.
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And that's important because the fewer amount of expected points
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scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover, especially if
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you're laying seven in a hook and actually had someone tweet
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me and say, oh, 53, that's a low total in college.
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Actually it is. We've talked about this before,
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but NFL 53, that's extremely high.
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You really don't see totals that high.
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Highest you'll see in the NFL typically is like 5050 and a
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half 51. But college, that's relatively
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low. Remember, we see college totals
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of 6070 or more. Also, the Eagles, I'll give them
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an advantage here, 2 day rest versus tired advantage.
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They played on Thursday last week, Louisville played on
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Saturday. So hopefully that extra time to
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rest, rehab, injuries, game plan, hopefully that's a benefit
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to the Eagles. BC also three and O at Chestnut
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Hill. They've been undefeated at home.
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Louisville one in one on the road.
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And also keep an eye out in terms of this total.
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Maybe a sharp line freeze to the under a little bit because we
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actually saw it open around 53. It's around 54 now, but you're
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getting 80% of bets on the over And it hasn't gone too much
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higher. Like it ticked up about a point
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actually was later in the day. It was sitting at basically 53
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unchanged, but maybe a little bit of a lean there to the under
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just because it's super contrarian.
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But in this spot, guys, I'm going to take BC in the points
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at home inflated line with some sharp buyback, low bets, higher
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dollars conference dog as well as a correlative betting, you
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know, bigger dog low total as well as a rest versus tired
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advantage. So I'm going BC eagles.
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You got to get the you got to get the hook on this one final.
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But we have BC final at plus 7 1/2.
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So give me the Eagles, as I don't know if you heard that,
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but my alerts are going nuts right now.
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Anyway, keep on cruising after BC in the hook.
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I can't wait to stay up late and sweat Boise State, UNLV.
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And also I've never, I actually haven't yet seen a game with
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Ashton Genti that, you know, ridiculous running back for
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Boise, who's the Heisman leader right now.
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So I'm excited to kind of see what he's made of.
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But there's a big match up tonight. 9:30 PM Eastern Time,
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Boise State, UNLV. Boise State comes in five and
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one. They're ranked 17th in the
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country. They've won four straight games
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just took down Hawaii 28 to 7 did not cover.
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However, as a 21 1/2 point Rd. dog tells you how good the odds
10:01
makers are UNLV meanwhile, 6 and one they've won two straight
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they just took down Oregon State 33 to 25.
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They did cover as a 6 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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Now what do we see across the market here Well, this line open
10:14
with Boise listed as a three-point Rd. favorite and the
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public says this line is way too short.
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Boise State should be a much bigger favorite again, ranked.
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They got the Heisman favorite here with Gente the running
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back. So currently right now you're
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getting 85% of spread bets laying the points with Boise
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State. Now this heavy, heavy betting
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has pushed the Broncos up a little bit -3 up to 3 1/2.
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You do have a couple books now that actually showing fours, so
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if you're going to go contrarian with me, I hope by now you
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realize when I tell you a team is getting, you know, 83% of
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bets, typically we're going to be on the 17% side.
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This is an opportunity to shop for the best line and grab UNLV
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plus 4. I'm hoping that the four start
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to get back down to 3 1/2. I was actually a little
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surprised it got up to four because it was kind of hanging
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around 3 1/2 all day. So again, very lopsided betting
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with Boise, but this is your number one contrarian play of
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the night. The Rebels are only getting 17%
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of spread bets. It's the most heavily bet game
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of the night, primetime game. We also love the fact that UNLV
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is a classic buy low, sell high system play.
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Here you have an unranked home conference dog against the sell
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high ranked opponent. And the other angle here with
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the Rebels, you remember earlier in the year they had the QB who
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was promised the NLNIL money. He didn't get paid so he quit,
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which again, that's a whole nother story.
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I think maybe he should have stayed with his boys and played,
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but anyway, he was replaced by Haj Malik Williams and really
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haven't missed a beat the Rebels ever since the backup took play,
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took over and they would match as a dog who can score system
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match. We talk about this all the time,
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but if you're going to play a dog like Boise +4 tonight again,
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shop around. Find that 4 instead of the 3
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1/2. But if you're going to play a
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dog, you need one or two things. You need a really, really good
12:02
defense to keep it low scoring and cover the number, or you
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need a good offense or maybe a little bit of both, but a good
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offense to put up points, keep pace, or maybe backdoor cover.
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Also kind of like the fact that this total has dipped a little
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bit and opened at a really high 66 1/2 and now it's down to 63
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1/2 or even 63. And that's notable to me because
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7075% of bets are going with the over, yet it fell a little bit.
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So it tells me we got some smart money under.
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So I kind of like the fact that even though that's a very high
12:32
total, it is kind of projected to go downward a little bit.
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So maybe we're hopefully getting maybe a little bit of a closer
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game here. But when you give me the most
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heavily backed game of the night, this is actually in a
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way, it's kind of like the the Rams from last night.
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One difference here is that the line isn't going to UNLV.
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It's kind of more of just a straight contrarian system play.
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But I'm going to go UNLV here at home.
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Again, you can easily get a 3 1/2, but shop around.
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You should be able to find a four.
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So that's what I'm sweating tonight.
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Guys. Give me UNLV at home.
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Allegiance Stadium in Vegas should be rocking.
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I'm on UNLV plus 4, the number one contrarian play of the
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night. So BC plus 7 1/2 and UNLV +4.
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Now one bet for you guys in the NBA because the NBA is back.
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We're two and O to start the NBA.
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Let's see if we can make it 3 and O.
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I'm going to focus on a 7:30 PM Eastern Time game here for
13:25
tonight. Indiana Pacers and the New York
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Knicks now going to this one. Pacers are one and oh, they took
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down the Detroit Pistons 115 to 109 in their first game.
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And you guys remember the Knicks.
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Oh, and one lost to the Celtics 132 to 109 and that was actually
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our first play of the year. Taking that over.
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Now in terms of the side, have seen a little bit of movement
13:48
here in favor of the dog. Like if you kind of look at the
13:52
way this is trended a little bit, we opened with the Knicks
13:55
around A5 point home favorite. Some books are down to 4 1/2.
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So we've kind of seen this line, you know, move a little bit
14:01
toward Indiana. Now I'm not going to make a play
14:04
here on the side. You know, I did notice we just
14:08
double check the bet splits here currently you are getting
14:13
because my plays on the total. That's my that's going to be my
14:15
play. But it does look it like
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Indiana's little sharp. They're only getting 39% bets if
14:20
the line did move in their favor.
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But I'm going to focus on the total guys of all the games here
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tonight, this one really jumped out to me in terms of an
14:28
overplay. So I'm going to go over in this
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one. Try to find over 227 if you can.
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If not 227 1/2, it seems a little high, but this total
14:38
actually opened 225 1/2 and it's now been bet up to two 27227 and
14:44
half. Right off the bat we have some
14:46
over steam with this total rising and a really good bet
14:49
split to the over. Now the over is getting 78% of
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bets. I don't love that that is a
14:54
public play, but it's also taking into account 95% of the
14:58
money. So this looks to me like both a
15:00
pro and Joe bet split. Maybe the public just remembers,
15:04
you know, Knicks in a huge over against the Celtics their last
15:07
game. But really to me, this is a play
15:09
also on the Pacers because the Pacers were one of your best
15:12
over teams last year and they brought back pretty much
15:15
everyone. It's a lot of continuity, but
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they were one of your best over teams.
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They're great at scoring. They gave up a lot of points.
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They're fast-paced. They were again, if you played
15:24
NBA totals last year, you remember the Pacers cashing a
15:26
lot of over tickets, but we've seen the total go up to 25 and a
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half, 227 and a half, 70. What I say 78% bets but 95% of
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money. Then you dig a little deeper
15:38
here, offensive efficiency. Now these are your current up to
15:41
date stats, which again, sample size is very small.
15:44
We've only played one game, but this is the data we have to go
15:47
off of. Both these teams are pretty good
15:50
offensive efficiency Knicks, even though they got blown out
15:52
there. Number six, offense efficiency.
15:55
Indiana is number 12. So 2 good offensive teams, Two
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teams that are not very good defensively.
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Defensive efficiency New York #30 dead last in the NBA.
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Indiana is number 17. Also, we have that short spread
16:09
again, open at around Knicks -5 it's down to 4 1/2.
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So good thing here if we're going to play it over, you want
16:15
a competitive game back and forth, you know, scoring from
16:18
both sides and maybe we get overtime if we need it.
16:20
Hopefully we don't. But I like that short spread
16:22
anytime we're playing it over. Then also just the fact that,
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you know, we have two healthy, rested teams.
16:28
Everyone's pretty much good to go.
16:29
Second game of the year and you have the Knicks haven't have not
16:35
played since Tuesday. Indiana played on Wednesday.
16:38
But when I saw that huge low bets higher dollars bet split
16:41
the steam to the over with some good offense and bad defense for
16:44
both these teams told me we have an over opportunity here guys.
16:48
So I'm going to sweat the over. I was able to get over 227.
16:52
Hopefully shop around you can find that, but definitely 227
16:55
1/2 should be available across the market.
16:58
So 3 pack tonight, BC plus 7 1/2, UNLV plus 4:00 and we have
17:04
a Knicks Pacers over 227 or 227 1/2.
17:09
Now over to the weekend. Let's start off with a little
17:12
bit of biting, a little bit of UFC as we hope to keep our UFC
17:18
win streak going here. Got a good win last weekend.
17:21
Now I'm going to focus on the main event, the big one, the big
17:24
enchilada here. This is UFC3O8 Ilya Tapuria
17:29
against Max Holloway, main event, featherweight most
17:33
heavily. Bet fight by far or bite by far
17:36
as I like to call it. And I noticed a great system
17:39
match on Ilya Tapuria or Topuria.
17:44
Now again, those who maybe have not sweat UFC with us, I'll give
17:48
you my very rudimentary system when it comes to betting on UFC.
17:52
I'm looking basically to marry the market with the tail of the
17:55
tape. So I'm looking for a fighter who
17:58
is younger caller, has a longer reach, but then also is getting
18:02
a low bets, higher dollars bet split and the line is moving in
18:05
his favor. So you have the physical
18:06
attributes and you have basically the market kind of in
18:10
agreement. So I landed on Ilya Taporia main
18:13
event, the favorite here. Now, first thing I noticed when
18:16
I got my e-mail like I do every Friday for my buddy John Ewing
18:20
at Bet MGM, I noticed right off the bat that we have a huge bet
18:23
split in favor of Ilya Taporia. Ilya Taporia is only getting 14%
18:30
of of tickets here, so everybody and their mother is on Holloway
18:33
the dog straight off the bat. Main event most heavily bet
18:37
fight by far. And Taporia is only getting 14%
18:41
again. Think of the Rams last night,
18:43
similar spot. So he's incredibly contrarian in
18:46
the most heavily bet fight of the night.
18:48
He's only getting 14% bets, but 50%, five O 50% of money.
18:54
So that tells me that the 14% bets are big wagers, sharper
18:58
wagers in his favor. We've also seen a line move
19:01
toward Temporia. He opened at -225 he's up to
19:04
-250 shop round because some books are closer to like -260 -,
19:08
270. But again, if everyone is
19:11
playing Holloway as the dog, why is the line moving further
19:15
toward Taporia? Why are the odds makers making
19:17
you make you pay, making you pay a more expensive price on
19:21
Taporia if he's only getting 14% of bets?
19:23
Tells me we got smart money going with Taporia.
19:27
So that's the market. Tell the tape he's 27 years old
19:32
versus Holloway, who's 32. So Holloway's 32 and that's not
19:36
ancient. But UFC, you know, you're over
19:38
30. Taporia's got a five year youth
19:41
advantage. They have the same reach 69
19:43
inches. Now Holloway is a little bit
19:45
taller, 511 or sorry, 59 versus 5-6.
19:49
So he doesn't have the height, but you have the big youth
19:52
advantage line move low bets, higher dollars that I mentioned
19:55
Taporia is 15 and O he's undefeated.
19:58
He currently holds the he's the champ, the featherweight champ.
20:01
So he's trying to defend his belt.
20:03
And then I was reading about Taporia and again Max Holloway.
20:06
I've bet on him before bet on him against him.
20:08
He's a, he's a good fighter. But what I was reading about
20:11
Taporia is basically he's in his prime, undefeated champ, lot of
20:15
confidence, but also he's the better wrestler as well as the
20:18
better finisher. So he really submits a lot of
20:20
his opponents. Also, if you look at taking
20:23
punishment, significant strikes, absorbed, Taporia is taking in
20:28
or absorbing 3.4 significant strikes per minute.
20:32
Holloway is absorbing 4.7 significant strikes.
20:36
So he's basically taking more punishment.
20:39
So this is the kind of fight here.
20:40
Where do we get to a decision? We shall see.
20:43
This could be a knockout submission.
20:45
You know, someone could finish here.
20:46
I'm hoping it's Taporia. It is a bit of an expensive
20:49
price, but as always, any bet that we talked about on the pod,
20:52
you're risking one unit. So I'm risking one unit here on
20:55
Taporia. I got Taporia at -250.
21:00
Now over to some college football.
21:02
I'll be honest with you guys, I love sweating college football.
21:05
This is probably my least favorite slate of the year.
21:08
Just didn't have a ton of ton of system matches when it comes to
21:12
college football. For this weekend, I would
21:15
recommend reading the Sharp report because between, you
21:18
know, tonight obviously and going into tomorrow, we could
21:20
have some late movement. There's a couple games I'm
21:22
leaning on, but really my angle with college football is like I
21:25
love when you have kind of like a home dog only getting 30% of
21:29
bets and they fall from like, you know, +7 down to +6 or
21:34
that's kind of been the sweet spot in college all year long.
21:36
You really don't have a lot of those, but we do have 111 game
21:42
in particular. We talked about it yesterday and
21:45
as of right now, that's my only play.
21:47
So you guys might know from yesterday's pod.
21:49
BYUUCF, give me UCF on the money line.
21:53
I love this spot here for UCF. Now, why do I like it?
21:58
Because it makes absolutely no sense.
22:00
BYU is coming in seven and O undefeated, 11th ranked team in
22:04
the country. UCF is 3 and 4.
22:08
They've lost four straight. They're unranked, yet UCF is
22:12
favored. That makes no sense.
22:15
Again, this is the type of play where when you're new to sports
22:17
betting, you think you're smarter than the books.
22:20
You take BYU, you double down, triple down on BYU.
22:22
Who knows, they could win, but the play here to me is UCF.
22:26
Clearly UCF as a super sharp dog to fave line move.
22:30
UCF actually opened this game where they were actually a dog.
22:33
They were getting around 2 points.
22:35
They've now flipped to -2 1/2 and hopefully you guys played it
22:40
a little bit earlier because yesterday I want to say they
22:42
were 1 1/2. So I kind of like the fact that
22:45
they've gotten even higher yesterday to today.
22:48
I don't love the fact if you haven't bet it yet, now you're
22:51
paying a little bit higher of a price, but still in this spot,
22:54
you can get Central Florida on the money line.
22:57
Let me just dial it up for the latest price here.
23:01
You're only looking at around, I want to say -145 -, 150
23:10
somewhere around there. I bet it yesterday at -120 So
23:13
either way, I'm going money line here.
23:16
But again, why if UCF right now is only getting 15% and other
23:20
Rams, you know, type play here, everybody and their mother 85%
23:25
on BYU. Yet the lines going to UCF
23:28
unranked versus ranked. It's also my favorite system
23:30
matches that unranked home favorite versus ranked opponent,
23:33
which is pretty good ATS it's like 56%, but it's even better
23:37
money line just winning the game.
23:39
It's closer like 69%. But as right now, again, I don't
23:42
want to force too many college plays.
23:44
I'll probably add a couple between now and tomorrow.
23:46
I want late movement to kind of show itself between now and
23:50
then, but as right now, UCF is my only play for tomorrow.
23:53
But again, check out the sharp report tomorrow morning.
23:56
My one play again, UCF Knights on the money line around -145
24:01
Now over to the NFL, sticking with the three bets that we
24:05
mentioned earlier this week, starting with the Indianapolis
24:09
Colts. Now talked about the Colts
24:11
earlier this week. Hope you played them a little
24:13
bit earlier because the Colts at most books are now down to plus
24:18
4 1/2. And why is that important?
24:20
Because the Colts in this spot, public is not touching them.
24:23
It's the opposite. They're going Texans here.
24:25
The Texans are getting 78% of spread bets.
24:29
However, Houston actually open as a 6 1/2 point home favorite.
24:33
This line is down to five. And now again, most books are
24:36
down to 4 1/2. So I mentioned this earlier.
24:38
I remember FanDuel earlier this week was hanging plus 5 1/2 with
24:41
Indy, so I jumped on that. You still should be able to shop
24:45
around and find a 5 at least. But again, some books, even down
24:48
to four and a half tells me we got continued smart money on the
24:51
Colts. Colts would match as a super
24:54
contrarian play, only 22% bets, but 45% money.
24:58
They're also a divisional dog. We've also seen those Rd. dogs
25:02
do pretty well this season. So Colts are kind of checking
25:04
off all the boxes here. And again, hope you played them
25:07
earlier. But divisional dog on the road,
25:10
super contrarian, low bets, higher dollars, reverse line
25:12
move. I'm going Colts guys again.
25:14
I got 5 1/2. Now you're looking at at least
25:17
try to get A5, if not a four and a half.
25:20
Keep on cruising. Atlanta on the money line.
25:23
Atlanta against Tampa Bay, good sharp dog to fave line move on
25:27
the Falcons. Falcons open as a dog plus 2
25:30
1/2. But then we saw a couple huge
25:32
injuries to Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin's out, Mike Evans
25:35
is out. The sign is now flipped to
25:37
Atlanta -2 1/2. So we have a dog to fave line
25:41
move. We have a lot of good players
25:42
out for the Bucks Falcons 66% bets don't love that that's
25:48
public, but 75% of money is on the Falcons.
25:52
So we do have low bets, higher dollars and also we've seen that
25:54
system match Rd. favorites. They really crushed it this
25:56
year, both ATS and money line. So I'm going to go money line
26:00
here. I want to bet against Tampa with
26:01
all their injuries. I want to back Atlanta in the
26:03
spot dog to fave. So shop brown.
26:06
I got Atlanta here. I want to say I got him around
26:08
-140 and then last play of the night, the Boys, Dallas Cowboys.
26:14
I'm not a Cowboys fan. I'm not a fan of Jerry Jones,
26:17
not a fan of America's Team. But I'll be rooting like, like,
26:20
you know what, for the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
26:24
Now, big thing here for the Cowboys is the fact that the
26:28
line is moving in their direction.
26:29
Even though the public is all over the Niners now, it's even
26:32
out a little bit. Niners are still getting around
26:35
60% of spread bets. If you remember, the 49ers
26:38
actually opened around -6 1/2. I bet Dallas earlier this week
26:42
at plus 4 1/2 and now you're pretty much down to four and I
26:46
see a couple books even down to 3 1/2.
26:48
So the sign continues to move toward the the Cowboys here even
26:52
though the public play is the Niners.
26:55
So Cowboys would match as a Sunday football contrarian dog
26:59
only getting around 42% bets but nearly 60% money reverse line
27:03
move in their favor. Cowboys also are a rest first
27:07
tired play. 49ers just played and lost to the the Chiefs.
27:11
Cowboys are coming off a bye, so rested, ready to go.
27:14
Hopefully that's an advantage. 49ers also lost Brandon Iuke for
27:18
the year. I don't know about Debo, don't
27:21
know if he's going to play or not, but he might.
27:22
He might miss this game as well. And we do have a spot here where
27:26
you really don't get Dallas in a big game.
27:29
Like basically you're buying low on the Cowboys because the
27:31
Cowboys have not played well again, They've what are they now
27:34
at this point? They've lost three straight.
27:36
I know they've really struggled at home.
27:38
Cowboys are actually 3 and O on the road.
27:41
But yeah, they actually no, they they lost to the Lions 47 and 9
27:45
actually won against the Steelers and the Giants prior to
27:48
that. But they're kind of in a down
27:50
spot three and three. You know, Publix kind of
27:52
quitting them. It's an opportunity here in a
27:55
good in a good good spread spot to at least try to get still get
27:59
the four. So I'm going to go Cowboys here
28:01
plus the points. So for this weekend, Colts, hope
28:05
you got the five and a half. If not, you know, 5 or 4 1/2
28:08
now, Atlanta to win the damn game on the money line.
28:10
And the Dallas Cowboys, hope you got the four and a half earlier.
28:14
If not, you're looking at a four.
28:16
So that about does it for episode 149 of the All Systems
28:20
Go Sports Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
28:23
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
28:25
start by asking a favor of you. Number one, thank you for
28:29
listening to this pod each day. I consider it kind of like when
28:32
I get together my buddies and you know, we go to the book or
28:34
hang out and just talk sharp line moves.
28:36
I consider you guys my friends talking sharp line moves with
28:40
which I'm very honored to do each day.
28:41
So thank you for taking the time out of your day to to listen
28:45
with your headphones or however you you might listen if you're
28:47
on the train or going to work or whatever.
28:50
But seriously, it means a lot to me.
28:51
You take the time out of your day to be a part of this.
28:55
I'm just lucky to host it. But I consider us like minded,
28:58
data-driven betters. But anyway, after I thank you,
29:01
now I'm gonna ask something of you.
29:02
Could you please help me grow this podcast?
29:05
Could you do something very simple that's very helpful.
29:08
Could you please give this podcast a five star review?
29:11
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, just go to rate and
29:14
review, click five stars. It would mean a lot to me.
29:17
Help us to grow the pod, continue to rise up the charts,
29:20
gain more listens. If you want to leave a a nice
29:23
note in the review, that'll be great.
29:25
If you want to click the follow button, that'll be great as
29:28
well. That way you get alerted as soon
29:29
as it drops each day. But a five star review would
29:32
mean a lot. So please, if you don't mind,
29:34
help me out. Let's grow this pod.
29:36
Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown,
29:39
data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting, we're not betting games
29:42
with what our heart is telling us what we think will happen or
29:45
want or hope will happen. We're making bets based on what
29:48
the market is telling us. And to me, once I discovered
29:52
this model, it really changed everything for me when it comes
29:54
to sports betting. Will you become a millionaire
29:56
overnight? No, but it basically shows you
29:59
how to grind your way to profitability.
30:02
So if this style of betting appeals to you and you want to
30:04
learn more about data-driven betting, guess what I wrote a
30:07
book on data-driven betting. If you were looking for maybe a
30:11
gift to give your dad, your uncle, your son, your cousin,
30:14
your aunt, whoever, or maybe someone who's newly into
30:17
legalized in a newly legalized market or into sports betting
30:20
for the first time, they have no freaking clue how to start.
30:23
You know, gift them my book or buy one for yourself.
30:26
Give it to a buddy of yours. Or you can just grab it and
30:28
learn, have something to hold in your hand.
30:31
Have different chapters or pages to to kind of harken back to you
30:34
can write some notes in the margins.
30:36
If you want to help me to grow the data-driven model again, buy
30:40
the book, support the team. All you got to do is go to
30:42
Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
30:46
betting again, pick up a copy for you or a friend or a buddy
30:49
of yours. And it's got everything I've
30:51
learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why,
30:53
how they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
30:56
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
30:59
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
31:02
included in the Everything Guide to sports betting.
31:04
So pick one up when I bump elbows with you at the book,
31:08
I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and
31:11
we'll sweat some games together. Second to last, have you signed
31:16
up for a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm?
31:20
Well, if you haven't yet, that's OK.
31:21
You guys still have time to do it, especially now ahead of a
31:24
big weekend. Because really these are my two
31:26
favorite sports betting apps because it's all about data.
31:29
They help me win. I'm confident they'll help you
31:31
win. So you can start by downloading
31:32
Rhythm who does a great job of powering this pod.
31:35
Rhythm is fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions
31:39
for both game bets and player props.
31:41
And then juice reel great for a variety of reasons.
31:44
You can sync up your sports books, get a running report card
31:47
of your action. You can you can just tail the
31:49
robo Jackson best bet picks if you are crunched with time.
31:53
You also get breakdowns, detailed breakdowns of bets and
31:56
dollars for every game for spread money line in total,
31:59
which is coming from users who have synced their sports books
32:02
and that's real actual money that's been wagered through the
32:04
app. You also get the arbitrage
32:07
opportunities. The sharp mush plays a lot of
32:10
great features of juice real. Also great with if you're
32:12
playing features quickly identifying the best number at
32:16
the book at whichever book is providing the best number.
32:18
So I want you to sign up for rhythm and juice Real, but
32:20
please do it in a specific way. Click the custom link that is
32:24
located in the bio description of this podcast.
32:26
For example, it'll say something like an episode 149.
32:30
Josh dishes out a three pack of sweats for Friday and a bunch of
32:33
plays for the weekend. OK, scroll below that.
32:35
You should see a link for both juice real and rhythm.
32:38
Click those links. It's important to use use those
32:40
links because that then they will know that I sent them, that
32:43
I sent you their way because I want them to know that I'm doing
32:46
my part to help grow both of those apps.
32:49
That does it. Everybody.
32:50
Again, big weekend here ahead. Second to last thing, I'll
32:53
always tell you whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic
32:56
City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
32:59
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
33:02
Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
33:06
in my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
33:08
We're out in the desert where the true grinders get down or
33:11
Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
33:13
possible is found at the South Point, or Sweat and sharp
33:16
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when he
33:19
cashed a big ticket after last night.
33:21
There's only 1 ticket you're going to show me Rams, baby.
33:25
Unbelievable when 90% of bets are on one side and we cash with
33:29
the 10%. That's about as good as it gets
33:31
in betting. So please show me a Rams ticket.
33:34
First one's on me, next one's on you.
33:36
We'll post about the book. Sweat Sharp contrarian plays all
33:39
night long. So wish the best luck everyone.
33:42
As always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
33:45
public, place yourself on the side of the house.
33:47
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
33:49
Will smart money win every time? No, unfortunately it won't.
33:53
Look at last night we got QS plus 5 1/2, they close 4 1/2,
33:56
then they get their their butts whooped.
33:58
So again, sometimes that's going to happen.
34:00
But you know what that tells me? Tells me, even though we lost
34:02
Syracuse, we read the market correctly.
34:05
And if you can learn to read the market long term, you're going
34:08
to be a profitable better. So if we can find that sweet
34:10
spot, stick to the model against the public with the house, with
34:13
the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
34:17
If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
34:20
sports betters. So have a great Friday night
34:22
everybody, have an even better weekend and I'll see you back on
34:25
Monday for big episode 150 of the All Systems Go Sports
34:29
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
34:32
Good luck everybody, have a great night.