Latest / Inside Politics / Why young people are so angry about housing, and whether this budget will fix it

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Why young people are so angry about housing, and whether this budget will fix it · Inside Politics

• 0:01
  S1: Hello and welcome to Inside Politics from the age and
• 0:04
  S1: The Sydney Morning Herald. I'm Jacqueline Maley, and today I
• 0:07
  S1: am joined, as usual by our chief political correspondent, Paul Chuckle.
• 0:11
  S1: And special guest star Drumroll, chief economics correspondent Shane Wright. Welcome, guys.
• 0:17
  S2: Good morning. Nice to get the salutation that I deserve.
• 0:20
  S2: Thank you.
• 0:21
  S1: Absolutely. That's your official title now, Shane. Shane. I feel
• 0:24
  S1: like we only get you on this podcast when there's
• 0:26
  S1: sort of bad news to deliver. There was inflation figures
• 0:29
  S1: out this week and it was pretty bad. Right? Tell
• 0:32
  S1: us how bad it is, doc.
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  S2: Well, the frightening thing is it could have been worse. Look,
• 0:37
  S2: this is just a flesh wound, to paraphrase Monty Python.
• 0:41
  S1: So we should we shouldn't complain. Really?
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  S2: Yeah. Stop your whinging. Uh, in fact, uh, marketplace has
• 0:47
  S2: actually downgraded the chance of an interest rate rise after
• 0:50
  S2: inflation came in at 4.6%. Not something you ordinarily see.
• 0:55
  S2: I'll put some of this in context. If oil prices
• 0:58
  S2: had not changed as opposed to going up by 33%,
• 1:02
  S2: inflation would have fallen to 3.4% in March. That's that's
• 1:08
  S2: the huge impact that we're seeing because of oil and
• 1:11
  S2: because of Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump and whoever whomever
• 1:16
  S2: is in charge of Iran at the moment, that's the
• 1:19
  S2: impact that everyone is feeling. And that was clearly evident
• 1:24
  S2: in these figures.
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  S1: Yeah. Well, I read your story and it said that
• 1:27
  S1: there's been a 33% rise in petrol and diesel prices,
• 1:30
  S1: and that's even after the government has cut the fuel excise.
• 1:34
  S2: No, that's this is pre okay. This is pre because
• 1:37
  S2: you will.
• 1:38
  S1: Actually factor that in.
• 1:39
  S2: Yeah. You'll actually see inflation for petrol will fall in
• 1:42
  S2: April because of what the government's done around fuel excise.
• 1:47
  S2: But but anybody who knows who's been out shopping either
• 1:51
  S2: for for milk to gold to an overseas trip knows
• 1:55
  S2: that prices have gone up elsewhere in the in the
• 1:57
  S2: economy because of what's gone on through Iran.
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  S1: And just in these month to month figures, are there
• 2:02
  S1: any are there any other sort of notable things we
• 2:03
  S1: should take note of? I think construction prices continue to
• 2:06
  S1: go like that looks pretty entrenched, that inflation in the
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  S1: construction sector.
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  S2: Yeah, that'd be the worry for the reserve Bank that
• 2:12
  S2: we're trying to build a lot of homes. Constructing homes
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  S2: is fossil fuel intensive. Um, so there will be a lift.
• 2:19
  S2: There will be a continuing lift. The electricity price story
• 2:22
  S2: that we've had for the last 2 or 3 years,
• 2:24
  S2: electricity inflation fell to just 26% from 37%.
• 2:30
  S1: So can you unpack that for us? Because elsewhere we're
• 2:32
  S1: hearing that there's, you know, because of so many more
• 2:35
  S1: renewables in the grid, that electricity prices are starting to ease,
• 2:38
  S1: but they're still inflating just inflation at a slower rate.
• 2:42
  S2: This is because of all the subsidies that have come
• 2:44
  S2: out over the last 4 or 5 months. This federal
• 2:48
  S2: and state government subsidies, electricity inflation is still highest in
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  S2: Brisbane at 4,144%. And that's because they had such large
• 2:56
  S2: subsidies up there, for instance. So you'll actually see electricity
• 2:59
  S2: prices negative from around the middle of the year. But
• 3:03
  S2: because of the way inflation is measured, it's just going
• 3:06
  S2: to take some time. Right. And another thing, one of
• 3:09
  S2: the big stories, big economic stories of the last 12,
• 3:11
  S2: 18 months with the Trump administration has been the huge
• 3:14
  S2: ramp run up in gold prices. I know you love
• 3:18
  S2: a bit of bling, jacki. Jewelry prices are up 20%
• 3:22
  S2: over the past 12 months. That is a direct impact
• 3:25
  S2: of the surge in gold and silver prices. And another
• 3:28
  S2: thing that might catch your eye because you love you
• 3:30
  S2: love a bit of steak, beef and lamb. Prices are
• 3:34
  S2: climbing at more than 10%. That is also because of
• 3:37
  S2: the US, the demand for red meat out of the
• 3:40
  S2: US because the American cattle herd is has fallen because
• 3:44
  S2: of dry conditions over there. We've been able to supply
• 3:47
  S2: a lot of cows, but that also means that the
• 3:50
  S2: price of your mince and your steak have gone up
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  S2: as well by a fairly chunky amount.
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  S1: Those Americans, apart from everything else, they're taking all of
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  S1: our beef. And this is despite tariffs.
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  S2: That's despite tariffs. And you know I love an Australian cow.
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  S2: But Americans love them even more at the moment.
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  S1: Yeah. Okay. They're good cows quality beef. Paul these figures
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  S1: are out obviously two weeks before the treasurer will deliver
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  S1: his federal budget on May the 12th. And obviously the
• 4:17
  S1: RBA decision. So the reserve Bank meets next week and
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  S1: they look more likely than not to to raise rates
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  S1: despite you know this result. Does this inflation result make
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  S1: the Treasurer's job even more difficult. How is it sort
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  S1: of playing into the budget preparation.
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  S3: Well you could barely I'm interested in your view on
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  S3: this Shane. I can barely recall a RBA decision that's
• 4:38
  S3: trickier than the one they have to make next week.
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  S3: On the one hand, inflation had been rising even before
• 4:43
  S3: the war, fuelled in part by government spending but also
• 4:47
  S3: higher business investment and other factors. And so the RBA was,
• 4:51
  S3: you know, in the mind of in the minds of
• 4:52
  S3: some of its critics and economists behind the eight ball
• 4:54
  S3: on taming inflation before the war. Now we have an
• 4:58
  S3: inflation crisis fueled by factors totally outside of the hands
• 5:02
  S3: of the Australian government or any Australian consumer, which has
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  S3: caused a consumer confidence hit. It's at its lowest level
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  S3: in a long time. And the RBA, because it only
• 5:11
  S3: has one lever to pull, is considering raising rates again,
• 5:14
  S3: which could make the consumer side even worse to deal
• 5:17
  S3: with the inflation problem that already existed, but has also
• 5:20
  S3: got worse.
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  S2: Who wants to be a central banker?
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  S3: And they're already split five four on their last decision
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  S3: is can you remember a more difficult rates decision than
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  S3: the one next week?
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  S2: So, uh, in terms of difficulty, the 2007 election decision
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  S2: when the reserve Bank lifted interest rates 2 or 3
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  S2: weeks out from an election, that was a particularly tricky one, 2019,
• 5:43
  S2: where they decided not to cut interest rates just before
• 5:46
  S2: an election and then did it straight after. That was
• 5:49
  S2: also tricky one. This one, it's tricky because it's not
• 5:53
  S2: the politics or the budget that's to one side. It
• 5:57
  S2: is the fact, and you've touched on it, the fact
• 5:59
  S2: that it was a five four vote. There were four
• 6:01
  S2: people around that table last month who said, let's hold on.
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  S2: We're not sure how this war is going to play out.
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  S2: We may have to make some tough decisions down the line.
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  S2: And if you read the minutes of that meeting, all
• 6:15
  S2: nine said, yep, much depends on if the war comes
• 6:19
  S2: to an end, then yeah, we'll continue on tightening monetary policy.
• 6:23
  S2: But they know six weeks on, there is no one
• 6:25
  S2: in the world who thinks that this war is over.
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  S2: Like in the last 72 hours, the price of oil
• 6:31
  S2: has gone from about 95 to 120 a barrel. That
• 6:35
  S2: means it's going. It's getting worse and tougher. And so
• 6:38
  S2: the bank has to decide what can we do? Those
• 6:42
  S2: that high oil price is going to hit consumers. You've
• 6:45
  S2: touched on that, which means a slower economy, which means
• 6:49
  S2: adding more in all interest rate paying may actually hurt
• 6:54
  S2: the economy in a really long lasting way.
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  S1: Yeah, it's such a tricky decision, as you say, and
• 6:59
  S1: it's an invidious sort of set of circumstances. Shane, we
• 7:02
  S1: already know a fair bit about what will be in
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  S1: the budget, and this is par for the course. You know,
• 7:06
  S1: governments always kind of leak out or, or talk about
• 7:09
  S1: foreshadow the the measures that they're going to take. We
• 7:11
  S1: know they're going to be big, big, deep cuts into
• 7:14
  S1: the NDIS. We know there are going to be tax
• 7:16
  S1: changes around investor perks CGT and negative gearing changes. Is
• 7:21
  S1: there anything else major things that I'm missing there. We
• 7:24
  S1: know there'll be probably extra defence spending. What other measures
• 7:28
  S1: do we already know about.
• 7:29
  S2: We know a bit around say, infrastructure spending. Just this
• 7:34
  S2: week Anthony Albanese was over in Western Australia and handing
• 7:38
  S2: out half $1 billion to some infrastructure works around a
• 7:42
  S2: very large new port project that's going on there. There's
• 7:45
  S2: been some money flowing in terms of housing, which Housing
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  S2: and tax are just going to be so central to
• 7:52
  S2: this budget. The NDIS announcement last week was such an
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  S2: unusual budget framing device because look at us, we're slashing
• 8:00
  S2: and burning spending in an area that's affects so many people.
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  S2: That's unusual, but I think they have still held back
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  S2: a fair bit, partly because of what's going on with
• 8:13
  S2: the war that's clouding a lot. You've got Albanese doing
• 8:16
  S2: a lot of Petro diplomacy around, around the region, and
• 8:21
  S2: the final decisions on the budget haven't been signed off.
• 8:24
  S2: They'll be signed off in the next couple of days.
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  S2: So there is still a lot that we don't know.
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  S1: Yeah. Okay. Paul, I'm interested in the framing because at
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  S1: the moment the government's trying to frame the budget very
• 8:33
  S1: much as an intergenerational equity sort of argument. And I
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  S1: know there are a few other key themes that they
• 8:39
  S1: want to get across, but, you know, they're sort of
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  S1: talking about the fact that young people in particular are
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  S1: very disaffected within this economy. They're more likely to be
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  S1: affected negatively by disruptions to the economy and, of course,
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  S1: in housing. It's sort of the big number one thing
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  S1: that makes people feel really bad about their lives, that
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  S1: they that they're locked out of something that their parents
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  S1: and grandparents were able to, to do relatively easily. What's
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  S1: the framing for the budget? I think there's a dreaded
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  S1: five planks kind of thing.
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  S3: Yeah. Maybe I'll turn into a government spokesperson and give
• 9:13
  S3: give listeners the five planks just after the first part
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  S3: of my answer. But you're totally right. The government is
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  S3: framing this as a moment where it will attempt to
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  S3: tilt the balance back in, or at least more in
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  S3: favor of younger generations of Australians who, you know, many
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  S3: economists and Shane and Ken Henry and various politicians have
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  S3: said for years and years have had the rough end
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  S3: of the stick for a long time and maybe worse
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  S3: off than their parents generation, which is a kind of
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  S3: break in the social contract. The framing has been fascinating
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  S3: because intergenerational equity is the buzzword that has been floating
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  S3: around for years. The Prime Minister started off the year
• 9:48
  S3: talking about it once he shifted off from Bondi. But
• 9:52
  S3: the government's put a new frame on it to make
• 9:55
  S3: the intergenerational equity argument fit the current moment with international
• 10:00
  S3: headwinds and a sense of crisis. And they've put this
• 10:03
  S3: new tag resilience around the intergenerational equity component. The resilience
• 10:08
  S3: frame also takes in supply chain reform and fuel security.
• 10:14
  S3: But they're wrapping the tax reform agenda with this resilience
• 10:19
  S3: framing to suggest to the public that we're in a
• 10:22
  S3: time of crisis. The country feels frazzled. Populists are on
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  S3: the rise. People feel like the system needs an overhaul,
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  S3: and that one way to make the country more resilient
• 10:33
  S3: outside of what we can do to secure supply chains,
• 10:36
  S3: which have clearly been exposed once again, is to make
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  S3: sure that people in the suburbs, younger Australians, people struggling
• 10:44
  S3: to get by, feel that they have a greater stake
• 10:46
  S3: in the economy and have a sense that the future
• 10:49
  S3: might not be as grim as the last 10 or
• 10:52
  S3: 15 years, when living standards have been pretty flat. So
• 10:55
  S3: this new framing has come over the top of the
• 10:57
  S3: intergenerational equity framing to add add a component that makes
• 11:01
  S3: it more relevant to the current moment.
• 11:02
  S1: Yeah. So Shane, they're talking they're really about resilience of
• 11:06
  S1: our democracy. Because normally when we talk about resilience, it's
• 11:09
  S1: a bit of a buzzword, isn't it? But I take
• 11:12
  S1: it to mean more talk about fuel security and, you know,
• 11:15
  S1: economic security and being more independent in terms of particularly
• 11:20
  S1: our energy supply. But what Paul was just talking about
• 11:23
  S1: was more like the resilience of our very democracy and
• 11:26
  S1: our very democratic system and our social cohesion. Because if people,
• 11:30
  S1: particularly young people, feel like they're locked out of certain
• 11:32
  S1: parts of the economy, then they're going to become disaffected.
• 11:35
  S1: And that breeds. Yeah, a lot of social conflict, I suppose.
• 11:39
  S1: Is that what you're taking?
• 11:41
  S2: Yeah. It's been interesting how um, because intergenerational equity, that term,
• 11:46
  S2: Chalmers used that right at the start of the year.
• 11:48
  S2: And it was it popped as this is this is
• 11:52
  S2: the start of the sign. And you've seen Albanese really
• 11:54
  S2: lean into the social cohesion argument and.
• 11:57
  S3: Came out of the extremely exciting roundtable last year.
• 12:00
  S2: Out of the roundtable. And we're going to see elements
• 12:03
  S2: of that in the budget, which is also intriguing to
• 12:06
  S2: see what they pull out. But I really want to
• 12:09
  S2: dig deep into why young people are so utterly pissed,
• 12:14
  S2: and it's understandable. So we're doing a story on, say,
• 12:18
  S2: negative gearing. So back in 99, 2000, when the CGT
• 12:23
  S2: concession was introduced, there was about 109,000 people under the
• 12:27
  S2: age of 30 who owned one rental property. 25 years later,
• 12:32
  S2: there's 95,000 of them. Now the population has grown 40%,
• 12:37
  S2: but the number of young people who have found their
• 12:40
  S2: way to get to own a rental property has actually
• 12:43
  S2: fallen over that same period. The number of people who
• 12:47
  S2: are 60 or more, who own at least one property
• 12:52
  S2: has increased from about 120,000 to 600,000.
• 12:57
  S1: And is it possible to say what the reasons are
• 12:59
  S1: for that.
• 13:00
  S2: Because young people have been utterly priced out of the market. So. Right.
• 13:04
  S2: This this is what's going on with when like the
• 13:08
  S2: average mortgage has increased about fourfold over that period. In Sydney,
• 13:13
  S2: the average mortgage is now 750, 60,000. Somewhere in there.
• 13:17
  S2: In Melbourne it's about 600,000. When I was a young fella,
• 13:22
  S2: mortgages were over 20 years. And then the banks started
• 13:27
  S2: to having to as the price of housing went up
• 13:29
  S2: and people had to borrow more. The average mortgage now
• 13:32
  S2: is 30 years because the repayments are unaffordable at 20
• 13:36
  S2: or 25 years. So that's what's going on. Young people
• 13:41
  S2: can't get a like. I've looked at buying a house
• 13:44
  S2: for themselves, let alone a rental property, to make some
• 13:47
  S2: way into their future. Ah, that's why they're so angry. Yeah.
• 13:51
  S2: And so like my understanding about the budget is also that,
• 13:55
  S2: and it goes exactly to where, where Paul's been speaking,
• 13:58
  S2: that the government is aware that the anger, the populist
• 14:02
  S2: anger on the right and the left is being largely
• 14:06
  S2: driven by the anger amongst people about their standard of
• 14:10
  S2: living if you're older. It's things aren't the same if
• 14:14
  S2: you're younger, it's because you've got no way of getting
• 14:16
  S2: into the system. That's what's.
• 14:18
  S1: Is that really Sisyphean, dare I say it, feeling that
• 14:21
  S1: no matter how hard you try, the system's always going
• 14:23
  S1: to outwit you and the system's not working for you.
• 14:27
  S1: I'm interested. I mean, we can talk about high level
• 14:29
  S1: framing and sort of like, mesh arguments and stuff, and
• 14:32
  S1: I'm sure that that's really fun. But, you know, when
• 14:35
  S1: it comes to actually pitching this and selling this to
• 14:37
  S1: the Australian people, and I'm talking particularly about the tax changes.
• 14:41
  S1: I want to ask you, Paul, how you think the
• 14:43
  S1: government will do that, because we've had former opposition leader
• 14:46
  S1: Bill shorten on this podcast as a as an honored
• 14:49
  S1: guest a few times. And he's talked about the huge
• 14:51
  S1: tax pitch he made for the 2019 election, which was
• 14:54
  S1: famously unsuccessful. It failed badly. How are they going to
• 14:58
  S1: go about selling these tax changes, in particular on a
• 15:01
  S1: retail level, given that there will be a big backlash
• 15:05
  S1: and the coalition is already sort of foreshadowing its criticisms
• 15:09
  S1: of those tax changes?
• 15:11
  S3: Yeah, they're no doubt will be a big backlash. I
• 15:13
  S3: think it's important to note that just to acknowledge that
• 15:17
  S3: the government is going ahead with these tax reforms, which
• 15:20
  S3: we are very confident they will. Even with all of
• 15:23
  S3: the insanity going on in the world, it could have
• 15:26
  S3: been the case that given everything else going on, they
• 15:30
  S3: pulled back, said, now is not the right time. Voters
• 15:33
  S3: aren't ready to have this public debate, but they've actually proceeded.
• 15:35
  S3: And we know the Prime Minister's made up his mind
• 15:37
  S3: on that. And Treasurer Jim Chalmers was absolutely keen to
• 15:40
  S3: do reform. So that should be acknowledged at the outset.
• 15:43
  S3: And that's a that's and they should get credit for that.
• 15:46
  S3: The framing is already looking different to 2019, when Bill
• 15:49
  S3: shorten took this massive tax package to. The election was
• 15:52
  S3: successfully framed up by Scott Morrison as running effectively a
• 15:55
  S3: big class war. There was a class element to the argument.
• 15:58
  S3: Shorten argued that the big end of town was running
• 16:00
  S3: off like bandits, and the rest of the country were
• 16:03
  S3: were on the back foot. Albanese, despite being from the
• 16:06
  S3: left of the Labor Party and shorten being from the right,
• 16:08
  S3: learnt very pointed lessons from the shorten expedition and has
• 16:13
  S3: dropped all the class war language. He's always talked about,
• 16:16
  S3: you know, the country moving forward as one and leaving
• 16:18
  S3: no one behind. But he hasn't sought to divide in
• 16:22
  S3: the way he's talked about economic justice. And I think
• 16:25
  S3: using the framing around populism, being on the rise, people
• 16:30
  S3: feeling frazzled, and that being the argument for making change
• 16:35
  S3: is more compelling and more saleable and better able to
• 16:38
  S3: fend off the scare campaign than a class war argument.
• 16:41
  S2: I was just going to add that they've been using
• 16:43
  S2: this term around. We want to give young people a
• 16:46
  S2: toehold into the property market. Now, that is a difficult
• 16:50
  S2: argument to. That's a difficult case to oppose. I'm not
• 16:54
  S2: seeing Tim Wilson standing up and saying, no, we shouldn't
• 16:56
  S2: be difficult finding a way for young people to get
• 16:58
  S2: into the property market. The argument is how you do it.
• 17:01
  S2: So that's when we talk about when politically we talk
• 17:04
  S2: about framing and narrative. Yeah, that's a good example of it.
• 17:08
  S3: And we have, we have no um, it's not clear
• 17:11
  S3: if the capital gains changes or negative gearing changes in
• 17:14
  S3: accommodation will have a hugely material effect on the housing market.
• 17:18
  S3: It supplies the bigger issue. They will be symbolically very
• 17:21
  S3: important and might cause between, you know, something like 1
• 17:24
  S3: to 5 or 6 or 7% on house prices. So
• 17:28
  S3: that's not going to fundamentally change the housing market. But
• 17:31
  S3: it's a start. And with some more movement on supply,
• 17:34
  S3: maybe it is the start of a positive development on
• 17:37
  S3: making the housing market fairer. But as you say, the
• 17:40
  S3: coalition is trying to expand its voting coalition and not
• 17:44
  S3: just pitch to asset owning boomers who are, you know,
• 17:48
  S3: slowly becoming.
• 17:49
  S2: Dying is the word.
• 17:50
  S3: Looking.
• 17:50
  S2: For.
• 17:51
  S3: Dying.
• 17:52
  S1: Dwindling as a vote of support?
• 17:53
  S3: Yeah. And so if they're boxed into a really vociferous
• 17:56
  S3: campaign against this push from labor to make the housing
• 17:59
  S3: market fairer, they risk narrowing their voting coalition. But on
• 18:04
  S3: the other side, labor has tried and failed to do
• 18:06
  S3: this over the years. So there's risk on on both sides.
• 18:08
  S1: Mhm. And I mean, so far, the coalition has signaled
• 18:11
  S1: pretty clearly. Angus Taylor, I should say, has signaled pretty
• 18:14
  S1: clearly that he's going to oppose any changes to capital
• 18:17
  S1: gains tax and negative gearing.
• 18:19
  S3: Yeah. Not not all his colleagues are sold on that though. Jack,
• 18:21
  S3: there's there is a really healthy debate on that, which
• 18:23
  S3: is fascinating.
• 18:23
  S1: I know it is really fascinating. It's it's hard to
• 18:26
  S1: see how Angus Taylor, as the leader, will be able
• 18:28
  S1: to climb back from his opposition to those changes. But
• 18:30
  S1: as you say, there are elements, younger elements within the
• 18:34
  S1: liberals who who think maybe they should they should take
• 18:37
  S1: a look at them talking about populism and Angus Taylor,
• 18:40
  S1: just to take a bit of a swerve. He very
• 18:42
  S1: much nodded in that direction this week when he made
• 18:44
  S1: some comments about Welcome to Country ceremonies or welcome to
• 18:48
  S1: Country greetings being overused. This was after, you know, a
• 18:52
  S1: lot of people saw it as a bit of a
• 18:53
  S1: dog whistle because he was asked about the disgraceful booing
• 18:56
  S1: of Welcome to Country at some of the Anzac Day
• 18:58
  S1: ceremonies around the country. This welcome to country is being overused.
• 19:03
  S1: Idea is not new. It's something that Peter Dutton brought
• 19:06
  S1: up bizarrely, in the last week of the election campaign
• 19:10
  S1: last year, and famously, it didn't work for him. It
• 19:13
  S1: was it was part of a famously terrible election campaign
• 19:16
  S1: which had a disastrous result for them. I'm just wondering,
• 19:19
  S1: do you actually think this stuff works for the coalition? Because,
• 19:23
  S1: you know, labor does steer steers clear of culture war stuff,
• 19:26
  S1: but the coalition seems willing to lean into it.
• 19:30
  S3: Yeah. It's a it's such a hard question. I wouldn't
• 19:33
  S3: discount the extent to which this feeling is. I don't
• 19:37
  S3: know if the word widespread is is right, but I.
• 19:40
  S3: It's easy to discount the views of the community on
• 19:43
  S3: this and suggest that it's a very narrow Sky news
• 19:46
  S3: watching cohort who has this feeling that welcome to countries
• 19:50
  S3: are overused. I suspect it's a bit wider than that
• 19:53
  S3: and that there is a genuinely large, maybe not majority,
• 19:57
  S3: probably not majority view in the community that welcome to
• 20:00
  S3: countries have been overused. Now, having said that, is it
• 20:05
  S3: where the Liberal Party wants to be talking about issues
• 20:07
  S3: like this regularly? Probably not. They're on One Nation's patch
• 20:12
  S3: talking about this stuff. They'll never be as hardline talking
• 20:16
  S3: on race and indigenous symbolism and migration as Pauline Hanson.
• 20:21
  S3: They elevate those issues when they talk about them and
• 20:24
  S3: probably actually shift vote in Pauline Hanson's direction, because she
• 20:27
  S3: is the emblem of these talking points. So There. They're
• 20:31
  S3: trapped in one sense, the coalition, because they know that
• 20:34
  S3: a significant part of their voting base is really animated
• 20:37
  S3: by these issues. They are, you know, held by people
• 20:41
  S3: who in the coalition's mind would not be, you know,
• 20:43
  S3: the coalition would not view all voters who hold these
• 20:45
  S3: views as racists who should not be pandered to. They
• 20:48
  S3: would see it as a more mainstream view than that.
• 20:50
  S3: So they don't want to they don't want to dismiss
• 20:53
  S3: these concerns. They don't want to be talking about them
• 20:56
  S3: all the time. How do you strike the balance? How
• 20:58
  S3: do you do it in a way that doesn't turn
• 21:00
  S3: off voters in the center and teal voters and labor
• 21:03
  S3: voters who are up for grabs? It's really hard. And
• 21:06
  S3: that's why they're polling in such a poor position, because
• 21:09
  S3: they haven't been able to answer these questions.
• 21:10
  S1: Yeah, I just think there's the jury is out for
• 21:13
  S1: me over whether this culture war, these cultural issues, even
• 21:17
  S1: if they, as you say, they chime with a significant
• 21:20
  S1: proportion of the voter bloc, whether they actually work for
• 21:23
  S1: the coalition overall, because we don't have any evidence, any
• 21:26
  S1: evidence that they do. On another tax proposition that was
• 21:30
  S1: also maybe a little bit populist, but from the left. Shane,
• 21:33
  S1: this week, the Prime Minister categorically ruled out any idea
• 21:37
  S1: of offshore taxing offshore gas exports, didn't he?
• 21:42
  S2: Uh, he ruled out a gas tax on existing contracts,
• 21:47
  S2: which is a very different issue.
• 21:48
  S1: Yeah. So let's get into that. How definitive was his
• 21:51
  S1: ruling out or ruling in?
• 21:53
  S2: Well, I point to the fact that he just flew
• 21:55
  S2: around all of Southeast Asia with some of our biggest
• 21:58
  S2: consumers of Australian LNG, where he made sure saying, we're
• 22:02
  S2: no surprise, no surprises coming your way. This is the
• 22:06
  S2: diplomacy we want their refined fuels and their fertiliser. They
• 22:11
  S2: want Australian LNG, especially with Qatar, a very large LNG producer,
• 22:16
  S2: out of the market because of the war in Iran.
• 22:18
  S2: So that's the real politic. The people saying that, especially
• 22:23
  S2: on the left, saying let's just tax everything going out,
• 22:26
  S2: don't have to worry about the fact that, uh, Malaysia
• 22:30
  S2: or Singapore might say, well, you've done this to, to
• 22:33
  S2: LNG might be difficult. You getting another boatload of diesel
• 22:37
  S2: or fertilizer or unleaded petrol. That's really what's going on.
• 22:41
  S2: And that's how it's been explained to me that there
• 22:43
  S2: is a case and you might be able to do
• 22:46
  S2: it on, on Uncontracted gas because that belongs to no one.
• 22:51
  S2: And that's, that's open. But if you've got a contract,
• 22:54
  S2: you can see the leaders of Malaysia and Singapore and
• 22:58
  S2: South Korea and Japan and China saying, we've got a contract,
• 23:03
  S2: honour it and we will look after you. This week.
• 23:06
  S2: Penny Wong is in China, uh, trying to make sure
• 23:09
  S2: we have access to jet fuel. LNG will be part
• 23:12
  S2: of that conversation, making sure that we are a reliable
• 23:16
  S2: and relatively inexpensive supplier of something that's really important to them.
• 23:21
  S1: Yeah. And the reliability is so important for investment. Paul.
• 23:24
  S1: I politicians always say they don't want to play the
• 23:26
  S1: rule in or the or rule out game, but he didn't. Actually. Albanese,
• 23:30
  S1: in his comments, did not actually rule out the possibility
• 23:33
  S1: of a future tax, perhaps on. As Shane said, on
• 23:36
  S1: Uncontracted gas exports.
• 23:38
  S3: Yeah, he's. As we talked about this last week, didn't we. He.
• 23:42
  S3: The Prime Minister is over a period of weeks now
• 23:44
  S3: slowly crept up to the point where he is ruled out.
• 23:48
  S3: Any move in the budget took him a while, but
• 23:50
  S3: he got there. So we know there won't be anything imminent.
• 23:54
  S3: It would make it very hard to make these arguments
• 23:57
  S3: with Asian trading neighbours to keep supplying us with fuel,
• 24:00
  S3: with fuel, as Shane says. But you are right. I
• 24:02
  S3: don't think it's totally dead. The idea that in the
• 24:04
  S3: next year or two the government does something to tweak
• 24:07
  S3: the Prrt, which is this tax that we don't raise
• 24:10
  S3: much money for because these massive companies are still riding
• 24:13
  S3: off their project costs when they set up these LNG
• 24:16
  S3: facilities about 10 or 15 years ago. There is such
• 24:19
  S3: a palpable sense in the community now. There's been a
• 24:22
  S3: really effective campaign. I mean, I was with friends on
• 24:24
  S3: the weekend who don't really follow politics at the football
• 24:27
  S3: with them. And they, uh, one of them was conservative,
• 24:30
  S3: one of them was probably labor liberal voter. Um, and
• 24:32
  S3: they said, well, we're seeing all this stuff from David
• 24:34
  S3: Pocock in our social media feeds. Why the hell is
• 24:36
  S3: the prime Minister? Yeah. Why is the Prime Minister not
• 24:38
  S3: getting more revenue out of them? So there's this populist
• 24:41
  S3: campaign that's been run. Some of it has been quite
• 24:44
  S3: misleading from some of the advocates, but nevertheless, it's out there.
• 24:47
  S3: There is a strong appetite in the labor backbench to
• 24:50
  S3: do some more here. The treasurer was interested in this
• 24:53
  S3: gas tax idea leading up to the budget. So while
• 24:56
  S3: now might not be the right time, and I suspect,
• 24:58
  S3: given the Prime Minister's strong language this week, we won't
• 25:01
  S3: see anything in coming months even. But in this term
• 25:04
  S3: of Parliament, it wouldn't surprise us all. I think, if
• 25:05
  S3: the government had had another look.
• 25:07
  S1: Yeah, that's what's so interesting. They definitely haven't knocked the
• 25:10
  S1: idea that it's not dead, buried and cremated. As our
• 25:13
  S1: other friend of the podcast, Tony Abbott, might have said.
• 25:16
  S3: We need Tony back on to talk about Angus.
• 25:18
  S1: We need Tony back.
• 25:19
  S3: I know we're very close.
• 25:20
  S1: Well, Tony's going to be at the Sydney Writers Festival
• 25:22
  S1: for anyone who wants to see him talk about his book,
• 25:24
  S1: which we did interview him on the podcast about Shane.
• 25:27
  S1: It's always a pleasure to have you on. Are you
• 25:29
  S1: going to be do you do some sort of Rocky
• 25:30
  S1: Balboa style training in the lead up to the budget
• 25:33
  S1: lock up date? Do you sort of haul logs through
• 25:36
  S1: a remote forest in Philadelphia or.
• 25:39
  S2: Well, I don't have to go to Philadelphia. I was
• 25:41
  S2: just last weekend I was running in the dark in
• 25:44
  S2: the hills of Canberra, which are much prettier than the
• 25:48
  S2: mean streets of Philadelphia. Yeah, yeah. Let me let me
• 25:52
  S2: assure you, you.
• 25:52
  S3: Could run up the stairs of the National Library. That's quite.
• 25:55
  S1: You could that would be actually iconic. I would, I would.
• 25:58
  S2: Look well, I'll get shots. Me and the dog Coco
• 26:01
  S2: will be there.
• 26:02
  S3: And your budget and your budget. Socks.
• 26:04
  S2: Oh, the flying pig tie. The flying pig tie. But
• 26:06
  S2: you know me, you know me, Jackie. There'll be a
• 26:09
  S2: Kate Bush, uh, reference somewhere, and that'll get me through.
• 26:12
  S1: Yeah.
• 26:13
  S2: Kate. Kate is the driving reference.
• 26:16
  S1: I look forward to it. And, you know, and Kate
• 26:18
  S1: Bush as well as Gen X, like she's firmly placed
• 26:20
  S1: within the two generations of the generation wars that we
• 26:23
  S1: were having at the moment.
• 26:24
  S2: So and as you know, Gen Xers, we are the
• 26:26
  S2: forgotten generation. Jackie.
• 26:28
  S1: Yeah. And the coolest people, other people won't acknowledge it,
• 26:30
  S1: but we are the coolest. True.
• 26:32
  S3: If you call yourself cool, that's your first problem.
• 26:35
  S1: If you have to tell people you're cool, you're probably
• 26:37
  S1: not cool. Anyway, thanks so much guys. See you soon.
• 26:41
  S3: See you soon.
• 26:41
  S2: Cheers, Jackie.
• 26:50
  S1: You can read all of our political news on our website,
• 26:52
  S1: si.com.au and smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong
• 26:58
  S1: with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills,
• 27:02
  S1: and our podcast for overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick.
• 27:07
  S1: Before you go, please follow Inside Politics and leave a
• 27:10
  S1: review for us on Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley,
• 27:14
  S1: thank you for listening.