Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Supplemental Sorsby, World Cupdate & US Open with Kyle Murray
Transcript
- 0:10Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites presented by Draft Kings. The crown
- 0:13Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
- 0:17Speaker 1: your host, back at it with the crew, our first
- 0:20Speaker 1: full crew show in weeks. I am properly excited. The
- 0:27Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degen Nation is here. The one and
- 0:29Speaker 1: only Stucky, the Namibian Princess, Kendra Middleton, Evan Abrams stat
- 0:34Speaker 1: Hound here with us as well us open preview on
- 0:38Speaker 1: the pod today will give you some actionable items for
- 0:41Speaker 1: one of Golf's for Majors, the Father's Day Major out
- 0:45Speaker 1: in Shinnecock. Wow, guys, it has been way too long
- 0:50Speaker 1: since we have done this.
- 0:51Speaker 2: Kendra.
- 0:51Speaker 1: I know that you have been back in the States
- 0:53Speaker 1: for over a week now, but from me officially, welcome
- 0:57Speaker 1: back stateside.
- 0:58Speaker 3: Thank you.
- 0:59Speaker 4: I missed you. I hope you had a good vacation.
- 1:01Speaker 4: I had a great vacation and I'm happy. I said
- 1:04Speaker 4: this on the show the other day. It was such
- 1:06Speaker 4: a good vacation, but drinking things with ice and eating
- 1:09Speaker 4: vegetables pretty pretty late.
- 1:12Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 1:14Speaker 1: I did not do the traveling that Kendrick did. I
- 1:16Speaker 1: went from the central portion of Florida to the west
- 1:20Speaker 1: portion of Florida. It was a two hour drive for
- 1:23Speaker 1: my vacation, but it's important to get away. Nonetheless, Now
- 1:26Speaker 1: I did catch up on Thursday's episode. Go and check
- 1:30Speaker 1: that out if you want a College World series preview
- 1:32Speaker 1: with Colin Wilson. It was fantastic. I wanted to see
- 1:35Speaker 1: what you guys were chatting about. And I have comments
- 1:38Speaker 1: and I have questions for both of you. Okay, I'm
- 1:40Speaker 1: gonna whip out my notepad here. Why are you both
- 1:45Speaker 1: taking scolding hot showers? This seems like irresponsible behavior. What
- 1:52Speaker 1: is the benefit of this? I know the science behind
- 1:55Speaker 1: the cold tub. You guys are going in the exact
- 1:57Speaker 1: opposite direction.
- 2:00Speaker 5: It just feels good hot shower.
- 2:03Speaker 1: You guys are going a little wild with this, Like
- 2:06Speaker 1: you're trying to burn your skin, is what it sounds like.
- 2:08Speaker 6: It feels better with each increase in temperature, feels better.
- 2:11Speaker 3: Agree with Stucky. Do you have any tattoos? Crabts?
- 2:14Speaker 2: I don't.
- 2:15Speaker 4: I was gonna say, it's kind of one of those
- 2:16Speaker 4: things where it's like pain that I like because it
- 2:18Speaker 4: forces me to like breathe through it, Like I It's
- 2:21Speaker 4: like one of those things for me. I like it
- 2:23Speaker 4: helps my brain disassociate from everything else going on.
- 2:27Speaker 6: When you have like a little hitch and the scalding
- 2:30Speaker 6: and it like burns it.
- 2:32Speaker 1: Listen, I burned my back at the beach. I can
- 2:35Speaker 1: get down with that idea. So that one didn't bother
- 2:38Speaker 1: me as much. I just wanted to know what the
- 2:40Speaker 1: it like.
- 2:40Speaker 6: Wakes me up, like, I'll take it, take a bunch
- 2:42Speaker 6: of showers of dead like if I'm feeling like especially
- 2:45Speaker 6: like during football, the football grind, if I'm feeling just like, do.
- 2:48Speaker 2: You ever go in the other direction though?
- 2:50Speaker 1: Because I do that with I will go super cold
- 2:52Speaker 1: to be uncomfortable.
- 2:54Speaker 5: That way to me stuck.
- 2:55Speaker 3: Have you ever put like scalding water on a bug bite?
- 2:59Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah? Oh you two need so much help.
- 3:03Speaker 1: But this is this is not the most troubling thing
- 3:06Speaker 1: that you mentioned about the shower. You both need to
- 3:09Speaker 1: carve out time where you detach yourselves from your phones.
- 3:13Speaker 1: I'm genuinely concerned about both of you.
- 3:16Speaker 2: You're charging.
- 3:17Speaker 1: It's one thing to use your phone in the shower,
- 3:20Speaker 1: which is already a step too far.
- 3:22Speaker 6: Technology phone, that's a podcast for That's that's my break
- 3:27Speaker 6: from cell phones.
- 3:29Speaker 1: Yeah, we're using technology. It has us in a bear hug.
- 3:33Speaker 1: The shower is a sacred place, Okay, burn yourself in
- 3:37Speaker 1: peace without your phone.
- 3:39Speaker 4: For Christmas, I'm getting you a to a dirty Birds
- 3:43Speaker 4: jersey and amount for your phone for the shower, so
- 3:46Speaker 4: you can come to the dark side.
- 3:48Speaker 6: I maybe I do try to disconnect. That's why I
- 3:53Speaker 6: like riding my bike instead of like I mentioned this before,
- 3:57Speaker 6: like now I got into it's a bike riding. I
- 4:01Speaker 6: also recently started playing basketball again. I'm probably gonna end
- 4:04Speaker 6: up tearing my a c L again. But I was like,
- 4:05Speaker 6: I got a kid, he's probably gonna want to play.
- 4:08Speaker 6: I gotta find my shot again. I got so I've
- 4:10Speaker 6: been doing that.
- 4:10Speaker 5: But my bike ride.
- 4:13Speaker 6: When I go out on my bike, I mean, granted
- 4:15Speaker 6: I'm listening to podcast, like random podcast.
- 4:17Speaker 2: That doesn't count. If you're using your phone, that doesn't count.
- 4:21Speaker 5: My one disconnect.
- 4:22Speaker 6: So when I read, I refuse to read on my
- 4:25Speaker 6: phone or like with a kindle eight thousands of books
- 4:29Speaker 6: otherwise too distracted. So sometimes I'll go I'll take a
- 4:32Speaker 6: hot bath or just lay in my bed and read.
- 4:34Speaker 6: And I always will, yeah, throw.
- 4:37Speaker 3: My phone away in the sauna. Those are my breaks.
- 4:40Speaker 2: Okay, I think it's important that.
- 4:42Speaker 4: We all have my red light therapy because I feel
- 4:44Speaker 4: like it's cheating. If you're on your phone during red.
- 4:46Speaker 1: Light therapy, you gotta get off the You have to
- 4:48Speaker 1: pick a time in the day where it's just in
- 4:50Speaker 1: the other room.
- 4:51Speaker 2: You can't access it.
- 4:52Speaker 1: And then if you feel that that that knee jerk
- 4:54Speaker 1: reaction or reach into your pocket, you know you have
- 4:56Speaker 1: a problem.
- 4:57Speaker 2: We all have it.
- 4:57Speaker 3: Well, yeah, we all have a problem.
- 4:59Speaker 2: Well that's why.
- 5:00Speaker 1: I say we got to battle this and not be
- 5:01Speaker 1: on our phone in the shower. Okay, I'm just trying to.
- 5:03Speaker 4: Be I'm basically the iPod kid generation. You're gonna have
- 5:07Speaker 4: to like pry it from my cold dead hands.
- 5:09Speaker 6: It's not happening. We're going to be in the hot
- 5:11Speaker 6: shower with our phone.
- 5:12Speaker 2: Sorry.
- 5:13Speaker 1: I challenge this is more of a comment than a question.
- 5:16Speaker 1: I challenge any other podcast out there in this country
- 5:20Speaker 1: to be more well traveled than this podcast. And I,
- 5:23Speaker 1: by the way, don't I don't even contribute to this.
- 5:26Speaker 1: This is just between Evan. We have two people on
- 5:29Speaker 1: the show that have been to Africa. Stuck He's gonna
- 5:32Speaker 1: go to Iceland. I'm just blown away by how my.
- 5:35Speaker 3: Country left this year. That I'm going to.
- 5:37Speaker 4: I'm going to Albania, Turks and Caicos and grease the
- 5:40Speaker 4: rest of the year.
- 5:41Speaker 1: That's my challenge to the rest of the podcast verse
- 5:44Speaker 1: out there. Bring it. We're challenging you. My culture are
- 5:49Speaker 1: are traveling more than you. And the comeback that you
- 5:51Speaker 1: guys left out of the best comebacks ever, Frank like
- 5:54Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills nineteen ninety three.
- 5:56Speaker 2: This is an introduction to football for me.
- 5:58Speaker 1: Down twenty eight to three at the half in a
- 6:00Speaker 1: playoff game, opened up the second half throwing a pick
- 6:04Speaker 1: six and they still won the game.
- 6:06Speaker 2: That was crazy, greatest come back ever.
- 6:09Speaker 1: All Right, I need an update on the World Cup, Kendrick,
- 6:11Speaker 1: give me sixty seconds on what has entertained you so far,
- 6:16Speaker 1: what has surprised you, and what is happening in the
- 6:19Speaker 1: beautiful game.
- 6:20Speaker 4: Okay, so there has been so much going on, I
- 6:23Speaker 4: have to I said, we have to start with Team USA.
- 6:25Speaker 4: Everybody probably watched that. I think that we as a
- 6:29Speaker 4: collective should be excited. I was under the impression before
- 6:32Speaker 4: the tournament started that if you would have given me
- 6:34Speaker 4: the three host nations, the US would probably be the
- 6:37Speaker 4: team most likely to embarrass themselves.
- 6:39Speaker 3: That's not what happened.
- 6:40Speaker 4: So I think people should have expectations they should make
- 6:43Speaker 4: the round of sixteen, and if they don't, this is
- 6:45Speaker 4: a disappointment and we should be worried about the future
- 6:47Speaker 4: of soccer in this country. Most entertaining biggest surprise so
- 6:51Speaker 4: far would be Cape Verde tying Spain yesterday. Spain obviously
- 6:55Speaker 4: huge favorites in this tournament, the favorite in this tournament.
- 6:58Speaker 4: Cape Verde one of the smallest countries to ever participate
- 7:01Speaker 4: in the tournament. Super fun game, goalkeeper stood on his head.
- 7:04Speaker 4: I've watched every single one of these games, and yesterday
- 7:07Speaker 4: I think was the first time that four games have
- 7:10Speaker 4: tied in the tournament and god knows how long, so
- 7:14Speaker 4: that yesterday was really entertaining. Other than that, I don't
- 7:20Speaker 4: have any hot takes. I feel like a lot of
- 7:22Speaker 4: the favorites outside of Germany have been underperforming. The Netherlands
- 7:25Speaker 4: tied Japan the other day, which was pretty crazy to
- 7:30Speaker 4: Brazil the story. But see Morocco, I think is a
- 7:34Speaker 4: better team than people are giving them credit for. Over
- 7:36Speaker 4: the last like ten years, they've really developed as a
- 7:39Speaker 4: soccer country.
- 7:39Speaker 3: So was it a surprise, yes?
- 7:41Speaker 4: Was it as big as of a surprise if you
- 7:43Speaker 4: watch the World Cup where you're actually a soccer fan.
- 7:45Speaker 3: I don't think so.
- 7:48Speaker 4: The internet gold that we are getting from this tournament,
- 7:51Speaker 4: the fact that I live in Boston and basically fall
- 7:54Speaker 4: asleep and wake up to bagpipes has been incredible. I
- 7:57Speaker 4: am actually getting off of here and going to the
- 7:59Speaker 4: Iraq Norway games so entertained, happy, I'm living life.
- 8:07Speaker 1: Well, it's full experience for the World's Cup I have.
- 8:10Speaker 1: I haven't caught. I haven't caught the bug yet. I
- 8:13Speaker 1: know it's coming. It's coming. I'm gonna get it.
- 8:17Speaker 3: You have a team. Who's your team other than the US?
- 8:19Speaker 3: Who would you cheer for?
- 8:21Speaker 2: No One? France. I bet on France.
- 8:23Speaker 3: Oh my god, I also bet on France. But I
- 8:27Speaker 3: hate the French. No offense any French listeners.
- 8:31Speaker 5: But also random random fact.
- 8:34Speaker 6: You're gonna sound so dumb if you say it, so
- 8:37Speaker 6: I don't. I never even say it. But uh, the
- 8:41Speaker 6: correct pronunciation pronunciation of Cape Verde is cape verd, which
- 8:46Speaker 6: is crazy. But if you say that, you're gonna you
- 8:49Speaker 6: sound dumb because everyone unless you're.
- 8:52Speaker 3: There isn't it also cobovert You.
- 8:54Speaker 6: Can say Cabo Verde. If you want to say or
- 8:58Speaker 6: it's cape Verd. I think verd is like the of
- 9:00Speaker 6: word for green and then e in Portuguese. I think
- 9:04Speaker 6: is silent when it's at the end.
- 9:07Speaker 2: But so how would it be Cabo Verde but cape Verd.
- 9:11Speaker 3: You're going to have another fun fact.
- 9:13Speaker 4: Boston has the highest Cape Ritian population in the US.
- 9:17Speaker 3: Shout out Brocklon, shout out.
- 9:18Speaker 6: Yeah, I was looking at that. There's no there's no
- 9:20Speaker 6: data on It was really interesting to look at the
- 9:22Speaker 6: highest percentage of each country's where each country's population is
- 9:29Speaker 6: in the US.
- 9:30Speaker 5: They don't have data.
- 9:31Speaker 6: For Curasol, so that's the only one they don't have
- 9:34Speaker 6: data for. But that was an interesting list. But yeah,
- 9:36Speaker 6: there's been whoever has just decided to bet every draw
- 9:39Speaker 6: is printing money, So there's like a lot of fodder
- 9:41Speaker 6: for like the soccer haters. I heard a lot of
- 9:43Speaker 6: it this week, and people don't like soccer, like, oh,
- 9:45Speaker 6: every game ends and it's high. But I think it's
- 9:47Speaker 6: been pretty exciting and I think it's going to lead
- 9:48Speaker 6: to more exciting group matches later on. And yeah, there's
- 9:54Speaker 6: there's definite reasons for optimism with how the US team
- 9:57Speaker 6: looked now granted it was only one match, but if
- 10:01Speaker 6: they look like that again, then Brandon, You'll be catching
- 10:04Speaker 6: the beaver.
- 10:04Speaker 4: And I'm going to say, yeah, I'm.
- 10:08Speaker 1: Not trying to be a soccer snob or or an American.
- 10:12Speaker 1: That would be the opposite of a soccer snob, an
- 10:14Speaker 1: ugly American. I love the World Cup, but I just
- 10:17Speaker 1: don't need to see Egypt play cures out.
- 10:19Speaker 4: That doesn't Oh my god, cra uncultured s Iraq, Norway,
- 10:24Speaker 4: you wouldn't go to that. I want to watch Holland play.
- 10:27Speaker 4: That's crazy. One of the best players in the world.
- 10:29Speaker 3: Kravitz.
- 10:30Speaker 2: I never.
- 10:32Speaker 3: I'm going to send you. Oh my god. So let's get.
- 10:37Speaker 5: Back to it.
- 10:38Speaker 1: Let's get back to our wheelhouse, and then we'll get
- 10:40Speaker 1: the shinnacock. In a moment, weird news to hit on
- 10:44Speaker 1: with Brendan Soresby, former Bearcat transferred to Texas Tech. Turns
- 10:48Speaker 1: out he's a degenerate sports better was made ineligible by
- 10:52Speaker 1: the NC double A, but a local judge granted him
- 10:55Speaker 1: an injunction that made him eligible to play in twenty
- 10:58Speaker 1: twenty six. Texas Tech has already spent a boatload of
- 11:01Speaker 1: money to bring him in. He's one of the top
- 11:03Speaker 1: quarterback prospects for the next upcoming NFL draft.
- 11:07Speaker 2: Well, the big twelve file of the lawsuit and NOL.
- 11:09Speaker 1: Soresby is basically tapping out and headed to the supplemental draft,
- 11:15Speaker 1: which I didn't even really realize was still a thing.
- 11:18Speaker 1: The league hasn't had a supplemental draft since twenty twenty three,
- 11:22Speaker 1: and no one has been selected for a supplemental draft
- 11:26Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen.
- 11:27Speaker 2: Unbelievable.
- 11:28Speaker 4: So I don't feel that's as much like yesterday, but
- 11:30Speaker 4: it was seven years ago, and I'm feeling old.
- 11:34Speaker 2: Well COVID the pandemic.
- 11:37Speaker 6: Was yesterday pre COVID. That feels like thirty years ago
- 11:39Speaker 6: to twenty.
- 11:40Speaker 3: Five in COVID years.
- 11:40Speaker 5: You guys, definitely Yeah.
- 11:43Speaker 6: Our producer said, well, uh, we'll have to cover this
- 11:50Speaker 6: when because people are now going to watch the supplemental draft.
- 11:53Speaker 6: There's you don't watch the supplemental draft.
- 11:56Speaker 5: MI. People already don't know what the.
- 11:57Speaker 6: Suplemental draft is because as you said there, there hasn't
- 11:59Speaker 6: been anyone selected since since COVID. I think it was
- 12:04Speaker 6: a safety in like in twenty nineteen. Uh comptent maybe yep.
- 12:11Speaker 2: I went to the Chiefs Cardinals, I think, uh team.
- 12:16Speaker 6: So, but the way that it works is there's so
- 12:19Speaker 6: you usually don't have a subplemental draft, like there has
- 12:22Speaker 6: to be an exception for something like this where a
- 12:24Speaker 6: player enters, and then it has to be a player
- 12:26Speaker 6: that's you know, worthy of giving a draft giving up
- 12:30Speaker 6: a draft pick because and the way that it works
- 12:32Speaker 6: is teams would will submit a blind bid for Soresby.
- 12:38Speaker 6: So you would say, okay, I'll I would give up
- 12:42Speaker 6: and then say and then they go. It goes to
- 12:44Speaker 6: the highest bidder. So say the highest bid was a
- 12:46Speaker 6: second round drafting, then you would lose that second round
- 12:48Speaker 6: draftic next year in a very very good draft, by
- 12:51Speaker 6: the way, and then if if the highest bid is tied,
- 12:55Speaker 6: then you know you have. It goes based on there's tiers.
- 12:58Speaker 6: It goes based on the amount of wins, right like
- 12:59Speaker 6: it's like the lottery, So then it would go to
- 13:02Speaker 6: like the worst team in the simplest terms, so everyone
- 13:07Speaker 6: would submit. So, but there's there's a lot of things
- 13:09Speaker 6: to consider it. Right, you're giving up a draft pick
- 13:11Speaker 6: next year, and also what the baggage that comes with Soresby.
- 13:18Speaker 6: I'm sure teams are going to check him out but
- 13:20Speaker 6: with the unknown here is how is the NFL going
- 13:22Speaker 6: to handle this?
- 13:23Speaker 5: Right?
- 13:23Speaker 6: What is the disciplinary from an NFL perspective? And probably
- 13:27Speaker 6: anyone that's going to take him isn't expecting him to
- 13:32Speaker 6: start Week one, so that might not be a huge issue,
- 13:35Speaker 6: But we don't know what that is because I do
- 13:37Speaker 6: think the NFL has to take a stance here and
- 13:41Speaker 6: come down probably pretty hard, because you can't just be like, hey,
- 13:46Speaker 6: you're gambling on games and then you get caught and
- 13:48Speaker 6: it's like, oh, who cares, I'll just go to the NFL,
- 13:50Speaker 6: and then it's like you're kind of ye a jail
- 13:52Speaker 6: free car. So I don't think the NFL wants that
- 13:54Speaker 6: this is like, this.
- 13:55Speaker 1: Is what we're talking about a top prospect. Where do
- 13:57Speaker 1: you think if this was not a thing and he
- 13:59Speaker 1: played out the season and was really good, is he
- 14:01Speaker 1: drafted right behind arch Manning?
- 14:03Speaker 2: Is that I think? Second? Yeah?
- 14:06Speaker 6: I mean I don't think he was like the second
- 14:09Speaker 6: or third. Like this is historically this on paper, as
- 14:12Speaker 6: of right now, this is could go down as one
- 14:15Speaker 6: of the best quarterback draft classes of all time. Like
- 14:18Speaker 6: there's there's some draft experts that are.
- 14:20Speaker 4: Saying like there he said that about Justin Fields and Sam.
- 14:23Speaker 3: Donald, Trevor Lawrence and all those guys.
- 14:26Speaker 6: Yeah, but there there could be like eight quarterbacks taken
- 14:29Speaker 6: in the first round this upcoming year. Now, what's gonna
- 14:33Speaker 6: happen is there's gonna be some guys. I mean, look,
- 14:35Speaker 6: Garret Nasmyer. People are saying number one, all pick and
- 14:37Speaker 6: he went. So there's gonna be some some guy. But
- 14:41Speaker 6: there's gonna be others who ascend. But there you know,
- 14:43Speaker 6: there's gonna be something that don't don't ave ut back spacers,
- 14:45Speaker 6: gonna be interest But as of right now, that's what
- 14:47Speaker 6: it couldtentially looks like. He to me, I don't know,
- 14:49Speaker 6: he's probably in like that second tier, so he probably
- 14:51Speaker 6: he would have went as of right now. I think
- 14:53Speaker 6: if you're projecting, he probably would have went like ten
- 14:55Speaker 6: to fifteen range. So based on like the checks and
- 15:01Speaker 6: what teams think, you know, I could see a team
- 15:05Speaker 6: giving up a second next year.
- 15:09Speaker 5: To get him.
- 15:10Speaker 6: But I'm far from an expert when it comes to
- 15:13Speaker 6: what the draft and what teams value a potential quarterback as.
- 15:19Speaker 6: But I will say I do think from Swordsby's perspective,
- 15:22Speaker 6: it was smart. He probably got good legal advice. Because
- 15:24Speaker 6: I don't think it was going to end well. I
- 15:27Speaker 6: think ultimately he was not going to be eligible and
- 15:32Speaker 6: able to play this season. So yeah, I think that
- 15:37Speaker 6: this is probably his best route. I'm gonna have to
- 15:40Speaker 6: deal with the fallout, probably maybe some suspension from the NFL,
- 15:45Speaker 6: but I ultimately don't think that he was going to
- 15:47Speaker 6: end up playing for Texas Tech. So I think that
- 15:51Speaker 6: he probably made the prudent move as far as trying
- 15:54Speaker 6: to advance his career. I think he eventually probably got
- 15:57Speaker 6: legal advice saying like this is probably not going to
- 16:00Speaker 6: end well, but it definitely changes the Big twelve. Just
- 16:04Speaker 6: became Texas Tech still the favorite and should be, but
- 16:07Speaker 6: now they have major quarterback questions and it definitely makes
- 16:10Speaker 6: the Big twelve race much more intriguing, which we will
- 16:15Speaker 6: cover in depth in our previews coming up shortly next month.
- 16:21Speaker 6: Think it's a campus.
- 16:22Speaker 3: Do we think that people are going to avoid.
- 16:26Speaker 4: Giving up any capital for someone like this, though clearly
- 16:29Speaker 4: there's probably going to be a suspension to avoid the
- 16:32Speaker 4: scenario that you mentioned. But the other issue here is that,
- 16:35Speaker 4: like we at the end of the day, are a
- 16:37Speaker 4: gambling show, but we do, you know, encourage people to
- 16:41Speaker 4: set limits for themselves and if you have some unhealthy habits,
- 16:44Speaker 4: their issues or anything like that, to call the hotline
- 16:47Speaker 4: or do whatever you need to do. At the end
- 16:49Speaker 4: of the day, though this seems like it's an addiction,
- 16:51Speaker 4: does that turn any of these teams off from putting
- 16:54Speaker 4: capital up for someone like this, regardless of the talent
- 16:57Speaker 4: that he potentially could be.
- 17:00Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't know. There's not much precedent for this,
- 17:04Speaker 6: so it's gonna go on a team by team basis,
- 17:05Speaker 6: But that certainly has the potential to weigh down what
- 17:11Speaker 6: the bids would be from certain teams. Maybe some teams
- 17:15Speaker 6: just avoid it altogether. But at the end of the day,
- 17:19Speaker 6: it's the NFL and and.
- 17:21Speaker 5: Then worse Yeah, and a quarterback.
- 17:25Speaker 6: Yeah, you a franchise, Like if you're like the Cardinals,
- 17:30Speaker 6: right and you're just searching for your next franchise quarterback,
- 17:35Speaker 6: you're you're willing to.
- 17:37Speaker 5: Overlook a lot.
- 17:38Speaker 6: But I don't do their background checks, and they'll still
- 17:42Speaker 6: and try to that out what they think of Sores
- 17:48Speaker 6: being whether you know, he's uh, he was legitimate in
- 17:52Speaker 6: seeking out help, and where he stands now in terms
- 17:56Speaker 6: of character. They'll do all that work, but it has
- 17:59Speaker 6: the potential to certainly suppresses his price and what teams
- 18:03Speaker 6: are willing to give up. But yeah, it also is
- 18:07Speaker 6: a quarterback in the NFL and one that.
- 18:08Speaker 5: Yeah, a talent.
- 18:10Speaker 4: I was going to say Kravitz, like, I do think
- 18:12Speaker 4: that we have obviously, from like a human perspective, seen
- 18:16Speaker 4: them ignore worse. But the thing is is that now,
- 18:19Speaker 4: because of the nature of this, it's an integrity issue
- 18:23Speaker 4: for like the game that I think that that's the difference, Like, yes,
- 18:26Speaker 4: we've seen human to human people do worse things, but
- 18:30Speaker 4: this is now the integrity of the entire league, and
- 18:33Speaker 4: I think that that is probably the difference between the
- 18:37Speaker 4: scenarios here.
- 18:38Speaker 3: So I don't know, have a.
- 18:39Speaker 1: League issue than a team issue, and teams are going
- 18:43Speaker 1: to be desperate. I wouldn't be surprised. I don't know
- 18:46Speaker 1: if what the contract structure is. I would think that
- 18:49Speaker 1: you can get a little more creative with how you
- 18:51Speaker 1: structure that out of a supplemental draft than the everything
- 18:54Speaker 1: is so structured in the actual NFL draft that there's
- 18:57Speaker 1: going to be some sort of a clause like it's
- 18:59Speaker 1: a one strike and you're out for Brendan Soresby, somewhat
- 19:04Speaker 1: like like a Kyler Murray clause.
- 19:06Speaker 2: You you can't even you.
- 19:07Speaker 3: Got to get off the Xbox kid.
- 19:09Speaker 1: You just like throw your phone in the garbage can.
- 19:11Speaker 1: Don't take it in the shower with you. Brendan, Okay,
- 19:14Speaker 1: we don't want any of that. Okay, And uh, I
- 19:18Speaker 1: do think somebody's gonna take a shot stuck, he said,
- 19:20Speaker 1: second round. I think that's probably the ceiling. But I
- 19:23Speaker 1: think there's gonna be a lot of fourth round there.
- 19:25Speaker 1: Give me a lot of fourth round submissions for this guy,
- 19:28Speaker 1: blind fourth round submissions for Sworsby. If you can get
- 19:31Speaker 1: a first round talent, which which which would basically be for.
- 19:34Speaker 3: You take that shot? Yeah, for sure.
- 19:37Speaker 5: Also, I do.
- 19:38Speaker 6: Believe that the the the pay structure is the same
- 19:42Speaker 6: as if he were. It's it's fixed to like where
- 19:47Speaker 6: they were drafted as a rookie, like so the second round.
- 19:50Speaker 6: If he was the second round draft pick, he would
- 19:52Speaker 6: follow the same strict structured pace. Go don't quote me
- 19:55Speaker 6: on that, but I'm ninety percent sure.
- 19:57Speaker 2: We will all learn more about the supplemental draft. Do
- 20:00Speaker 2: you know what it is? By the way, I think
- 20:01Speaker 2: it's in.
- 20:01Speaker 1: I think it's later this month perhaps, or the deadline
- 20:05Speaker 1: was June twenty second. I know that, but do we
- 20:07Speaker 1: know when the actual supplemental draft takes place?
- 20:10Speaker 2: When can we watch the broadcast?
- 20:12Speaker 1: Gifford, That's what I'm wondering opening emails.
- 20:18Speaker 5: That.
- 20:19Speaker 6: I mean like it's mid to late July, but it doesn't
- 20:24Speaker 6: have a set calendar date, so they only schedule it
- 20:26Speaker 6: if like there's muligible players for it, and then they
- 20:30Speaker 6: take the bids and but it looks like it's he
- 20:35Speaker 6: applied before the June twenty second deadline. It's a silent auction.
- 20:40Speaker 6: So yeah, it looks like mid to mid to late July.
- 20:44Speaker 5: It's going to be.
- 20:45Speaker 1: Well, that sounds like mid July content to me, and
- 20:48Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it coming up. Kyle Murray and
- 20:51Speaker 1: his US Open preview. Should we be betting Scotty in
- 20:54Speaker 1: the outright market? What about the long shots analysis found
- 20:58Speaker 1: on the other side, wagers found on the best sports
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- 21:31Speaker 1: today and stay in the game. The crown is yours.
- 21:35Speaker 1: Kyle Murray does golf, baseball, basketball and more. He's a
- 21:39Speaker 1: projections analyst at Roto Grinders.
- 21:41Speaker 2: Kyle, Welcome to the show. It is US Open week.
- 21:44Speaker 1: Where does this rank for you and the hierarchy of
- 21:48Speaker 1: great golf events throughout the course of the year.
- 21:51Speaker 5: Yeah, I think this one's top.
- 21:53Speaker 7: I think it's pretty volatile from like a public consumption perspective,
- 21:56Speaker 7: because it's probably the most difficult task that we see
- 21:59Speaker 7: on on the schedule every single year. So I think
- 22:02Speaker 7: some people like to see those golfers go out there
- 22:03Speaker 7: and struggle, and others like to see some birdies made.
- 22:06Speaker 7: I personally like to see, you know, the tough task
- 22:08Speaker 7: that these players had to overcome. I think the US
- 22:11Speaker 7: Open can obviously change courses every year, so Shinnakak is
- 22:15Speaker 7: certainly up there in terms of most famous courses in
- 22:18Speaker 7: the world.
- 22:19Speaker 5: So I'll probably give this one.
- 22:20Speaker 7: I still have to take the Masters over it, but
- 22:22Speaker 7: I'll probably slot in the US Open as my second
- 22:25Speaker 7: favorite major this year.
- 22:26Speaker 1: And it's the Father's Day Major, Stucky's first Father's Day, Stucky,
- 22:31Speaker 1: how much are you looking forward to that first Father's
- 22:33Speaker 1: Day US Open? Nap in your life.
- 22:37Speaker 6: Should be glorious. Yeah, I like when it's when it's tough,
- 22:42Speaker 6: So I'll be looking forward to catching a nap, hopefully
- 22:47Speaker 6: watching some struggles and hopefully a dramatic finish, but not
- 22:52Speaker 6: not too dramatic, so I can get a nap in
- 22:54Speaker 6: and then once I I'm up, it gets a little
- 22:56Speaker 6: bit more dramatic. But yeah, that's definitely looking forward to it.
- 22:59Speaker 1: A couple things to understand before we lay any money
- 23:01Speaker 1: down on this event. What's the difference between links golf
- 23:05Speaker 1: and a traditional course.
- 23:08Speaker 5: Yeah, Link style is just a little bit more open.
- 23:10Speaker 7: Usually the biggest difference in terms of how it plays
- 23:12Speaker 7: out is how it's impacted by the weather. And obviously,
- 23:15Speaker 7: you know with this course being you know, set on
- 23:17Speaker 7: Long Island and it can sup it can certainly get
- 23:20Speaker 7: super windy out there that it can be a little
- 23:22Speaker 7: bit touchy in terms of forecasting the weather. So that's
- 23:26Speaker 7: you know, obviously we're recording this right now Tuesday morning.
- 23:28Speaker 7: I tend to not want to give myself like biased
- 23:30Speaker 7: priors based on looking at the weather too early. I
- 23:33Speaker 7: kind of go into certain ways to understand there's probably
- 23:35Speaker 7: going to be some weather in the forecast, but when
- 23:38Speaker 7: specifically can change very dramatically leading up to you know,
- 23:40Speaker 7: officially tea time. So that's certainly going to be a
- 23:43Speaker 7: spot where, you know, on a links course, where you
- 23:46Speaker 7: know there's really nothing protecting these playing environments from the wind,
- 23:50Speaker 7: that's where it's going to really get hectics. So that's
- 23:52Speaker 7: the main thing to look at going into uh, you know,
- 23:54Speaker 7: Thursday morning. But they have link styles mainly, you know,
- 23:57Speaker 7: when you think about you know, the courses in Aland,
- 24:00Speaker 7: Ireland where there's just nothing out there, it's just mainly
- 24:02Speaker 7: defended by bunkers and extremely undulating slopes and green patterns
- 24:07Speaker 7: like that. Obviously, they're going to have long roughs like
- 24:09Speaker 7: they do in every single US Open, but probably a
- 24:12Speaker 7: little bit more severe here at Shinnecock. So that's gonna
- 24:16Speaker 7: be the toughest parts of the course. Those sorts of
- 24:19Speaker 7: features on any given hole, and then also what the
- 24:21Speaker 7: wind can do here.
- 24:23Speaker 1: Us golf casuals are always interested in the live market,
- 24:27Speaker 1: getting an idea of how the leaderboard is breaking out
- 24:29Speaker 1: before you jump in, and it seems like this event
- 24:31Speaker 1: may even cater to that even more when you talk
- 24:33Speaker 1: about wind being a factor in us not knowing right
- 24:36Speaker 1: now how much that's going to impact things. We know
- 24:39Speaker 1: in any sport that we follow, the more wind is
- 24:42Speaker 1: it just equals more variance, and that means that we
- 24:45Speaker 1: could see some pretty wacky results after Thursday. This event,
- 24:49Speaker 1: as opposed to maybe some others, is the live market
- 24:51Speaker 1: even more intriguing to you?
- 24:53Speaker 7: I think live betting certainly gets more exciting in events
- 24:57Speaker 7: like this where anything can really happen down the stretch. Obviously,
- 25:00Speaker 7: a blow apole is, you know, only around the corner
- 25:02Speaker 7: for most of these guys. But for me personally, the
- 25:04Speaker 7: way that you know the wind would impact live betting,
- 25:07Speaker 7: the way the wind would impact a model for me
- 25:10Speaker 7: is going to probably be the same regardless of how
- 25:13Speaker 7: they're playing in that event, So that aspect of it
- 25:15Speaker 7: probably wouldn't change how I'm grading a player. You know,
- 25:18Speaker 7: each player this week has a wind performance, great in
- 25:21Speaker 7: my model, so that's going to be the same. You know,
- 25:23Speaker 7: one or two rounds isn't going to change that great
- 25:26Speaker 7: for me in my live model. But for the most part,
- 25:28Speaker 7: I do think that the excitement of down the stretch
- 25:30Speaker 7: where you know, blow ups could happen, et cetera, that
- 25:32Speaker 7: could add to some some live betting you know, fun there.
- 25:35Speaker 7: But also from a value perspective, a lot of these
- 25:39Speaker 7: guys are going to be in it for a long time,
- 25:40Speaker 7: and there's I mean, you're gonna have some guys who
- 25:43Speaker 7: fall out of contention pretty quickly. But last time we
- 25:45Speaker 7: had this course here Brooks kept a one at one over,
- 25:49Speaker 7: So anybody can you know, be in the mix probably
- 25:52Speaker 7: coming up to Saturday Sunday, especially a lot of these
- 25:54Speaker 7: key guys here.
- 25:56Speaker 4: I'm one of these people, and sometimes this bites me
- 25:58Speaker 4: in the ass, but it's just it is what it is.
- 26:01Speaker 3: I like to get my top ten.
- 26:02Speaker 4: Bets for favorites in early just on the off chance
- 26:05Speaker 4: it doesn't get better. Sometimes it does and they wind
- 26:08Speaker 4: up playing a little bit of catchup and I lose
- 26:09Speaker 4: some value.
- 26:10Speaker 3: But do you think that it's.
- 26:11Speaker 4: Kind of the two favorites and Rory and Scotty and
- 26:14Speaker 4: everybody else or would you lean the field here?
- 26:19Speaker 5: Yeah, I do think that.
- 26:20Speaker 7: So right now my model has Rory and Scotty as
- 26:22Speaker 7: as it's them, it's it's Scotty a tear drop and
- 26:26Speaker 7: there's Rory and then it's another tear drop. So I
- 26:29Speaker 7: do think that my model likes both of those guys.
- 26:32Speaker 7: Really hard to argue, like when all the things I'm
- 26:34Speaker 7: looking at this week, obviously that's going to be pretty
- 26:38Speaker 7: consistent concidering these are two of the most premier major
- 26:42Speaker 7: winners over the last three or four years, So those
- 26:45Speaker 7: guys lining up and projecting well in a Major isn't
- 26:47Speaker 7: too surprising. But I definitely think that a US Open
- 26:51Speaker 7: is someone that brings in some potential underdogs or upsets.
- 26:55Speaker 7: Obviously we've seen Jajay Spawn win, We've seen when Clark win.
- 26:58Speaker 4: Speaking of the opposite of favorites, who are you absolutely
- 27:01Speaker 4: fading in this tournament?
- 27:03Speaker 7: Yeah, I think this is going to be maybe tough
- 27:05Speaker 7: considering I'm looking at the show doc right now and
- 27:10Speaker 7: for me, it's gonna be Brooks kap guy. I think
- 27:13Speaker 7: in terms of you know, when I looked at the
- 27:15Speaker 7: way my model is grading out players, and they were
- 27:18Speaker 7: pricing the market. It's not that I don't think that
- 27:21Speaker 7: Brooks Heptick can perform well here. I mean, obviously he's
- 27:24Speaker 7: one here before. He's a guy who has won majors significantly,
- 27:28Speaker 7: especially at courses like this at great rates. But for me,
- 27:33Speaker 7: I think he's just priced too dramatically based on the
- 27:35Speaker 7: fact that he's one here before. And for me, I
- 27:38Speaker 7: have to be a little bit concerned about him withdrawing
- 27:41Speaker 7: last week with a hand injury. I do think maybe
- 27:43Speaker 7: some of that was out of precaution for being ready
- 27:46Speaker 7: for this week, and that's, you know, rightfully so for him,
- 27:49Speaker 7: but I have to be worried about that. So that
- 27:51Speaker 7: combined with the fact that my model already thinks that
- 27:54Speaker 7: he's being overpriced based on maybe it's his major history,
- 27:57Speaker 7: maybe it's history here specifically at Shinneka, but overall, that's
- 28:01Speaker 7: going to be my fade this week, which is certainly scary.
- 28:03Speaker 7: He's not a guy that I like to fade a majors,
- 28:05Speaker 7: even when he wasn't playing on the PGA tour consistently,
- 28:07Speaker 7: still not a guy that I love to fade. But
- 28:10Speaker 7: either Brooks or Bryson and Sham but would be my
- 28:11Speaker 7: two fades this week. Bryson was also a guy who
- 28:14Speaker 7: Again that sounds like a terrible time fading Bryson in
- 28:17Speaker 7: the US Open, considering that what he's played them over
- 28:19Speaker 7: the past few years. But another guy who just grades
- 28:22Speaker 7: out as a little bit overpriced in my model. I
- 28:24Speaker 7: think that might be again because of his US Open history.
- 28:27Speaker 7: But yeah, two of those guys are probably my biggest
- 28:30Speaker 7: fades this week.
- 28:32Speaker 5: I have a two part question.
- 28:33Speaker 6: One, if you got to project where you think the
- 28:38Speaker 6: winning score will be, I think at DK it's two
- 28:40Speaker 6: seventy eight and a half, and I think in five
- 28:42Speaker 6: previous US Opens only three players that finished under par.
- 28:47Speaker 6: Do you see any value there or do you think
- 28:49Speaker 6: that that's priced about right if you had a guess
- 28:51Speaker 6: where someone finishes with the winning score.
- 28:54Speaker 7: Yeah, I tend to think that that's an interesting market
- 28:58Speaker 7: to look at every week, because you know, half the
- 29:01Speaker 7: battle of modeling a PGA event is figuring out how
- 29:04Speaker 7: difficult the course is going to play, especially when it's
- 29:06Speaker 7: a course that we don't see all that consistently. But
- 29:10Speaker 7: I do also find it hard to project the exact
- 29:13Speaker 7: number like that, And you know, just because obviously from
- 29:16Speaker 7: on course like this, there's gonna be some some variances volatility,
- 29:19Speaker 7: But typically we'll get guys commenting on the course. I
- 29:23Speaker 7: haven't really seen a ton of you know, actual intel
- 29:26Speaker 7: from the way the course is actually going to play,
- 29:28Speaker 7: and I think a lot of that is because it's
- 29:29Speaker 7: so wind dependent. So if this course, this course is
- 29:33Speaker 7: going to be tough regardless, but I think it could
- 29:35Speaker 7: go from extremely tough to absolutely impossible depending on the wind.
- 29:40Speaker 7: So I think that would be probably a question. No,
- 29:42Speaker 7: I would feel better answering closer closer to T eight
- 29:45Speaker 7: times when we have more of a more profound wind forecast.
- 29:49Speaker 7: But for me, I would guess, you know, the score
- 29:51Speaker 7: For me, I would probably throw a safe number of
- 29:54Speaker 7: even par I think would be the winning score if
- 29:57Speaker 7: I had to guess. But so we're pretty close to
- 29:59Speaker 7: that DK market there. But yeah, again, I do think
- 30:02Speaker 7: it is extremely dependent on the wind here.
- 30:04Speaker 6: Now, what do you think it's going to be more
- 30:06Speaker 6: important this week? It Is this going to be the term?
- 30:09Speaker 6: Is the winter going to be determined by who second
- 30:11Speaker 6: shot golf? Or is putting going to be even more
- 30:13Speaker 6: critical on this course? How would you describe which one?
- 30:17Speaker 6: Do you think holds more weight this week.
- 30:20Speaker 7: Yeah, I do think this is going to be primarily
- 30:22Speaker 7: a second shot course, and I do think that's mostly
- 30:24Speaker 7: because I do think the wind is going to be
- 30:26Speaker 7: a factor, and you know, guys who are going to
- 30:29Speaker 7: spray off the tee are going to you know, get penalized,
- 30:31Speaker 7: but also guys who don't could also end up getting
- 30:33Speaker 7: penalized because of the wind. I think it's just going
- 30:35Speaker 7: to be a difficult course off the tee, So it's
- 30:37Speaker 7: going to be how you can either reposition yourself or
- 30:39Speaker 7: take advantage of those second shots. So I did grade
- 30:42Speaker 7: approach play as the most important strokes gain category this
- 30:45Speaker 7: week in my model. But again, it's a major course,
- 30:49Speaker 7: so it's going to be a spot where everything is important.
- 30:51Speaker 7: So you're going to see a lot of guys who
- 30:53Speaker 7: kind of rise to the top because they have a
- 30:55Speaker 7: good all around game. I do think putting here could
- 30:58Speaker 7: be pretty volatile. So so for me, the way I
- 31:01Speaker 7: grated it was putting was the least important strokes gained
- 31:04Speaker 7: category this week, which is typically the case on easy
- 31:08Speaker 7: scoring courses because I think that guys can go out
- 31:10Speaker 7: and they can make birdies, you know, at unbelievable rates.
- 31:13Speaker 7: But for courses like this, where you know par is
- 31:16Speaker 7: going to be a very good score, you're gonna have
- 31:18Speaker 7: guys who are able to hit greens and regulation and
- 31:21Speaker 7: two putt and make par and that's a great score
- 31:24Speaker 7: on any given hole. So that's going to be I
- 31:26Speaker 7: think a bit of a different layer for me this
- 31:28Speaker 7: week with not really valuing putting too much, not to
- 31:31Speaker 7: say that good putters aren't able to, you know, sustain
- 31:34Speaker 7: some things here in my model, But for me, the
- 31:36Speaker 7: biggest important, the most important putting aspect is three put
- 31:41Speaker 7: avoidance and then putting from certain ranges.
- 31:43Speaker 5: There's gonna be a lot of long.
- 31:44Speaker 7: And difficult putts here this week because these greens are
- 31:46Speaker 7: going to be so hard to hold a position on
- 31:48Speaker 7: and be close to the pin. So I think long
- 31:51Speaker 7: putting players they tend to grad out well. So there's
- 31:53Speaker 7: a couple of guys in my model this week, one
- 31:55Speaker 7: that we'll talk about later, who are historically bad putters,
- 31:58Speaker 7: but because they put well from certain distances, they actually
- 32:01Speaker 7: grade out positively this week. So I think it's a
- 32:04Speaker 7: different way of looking at it from a putting perspective.
- 32:06Speaker 7: But that would be my least favorite or least key
- 32:09Speaker 7: stat this week.
- 32:10Speaker 6: So I'm curious to see where Speaking of putting, curious
- 32:13Speaker 6: to see what your thoughts are on Sam Burns, someone
- 32:16Speaker 6: I'm was potentially looking at. I know he's been putting well,
- 32:19Speaker 6: but he's been playing he's played better at majors of
- 32:22Speaker 6: late when he finished top ten at the Masters m Memorial.
- 32:26Speaker 6: Any thoughts on mister Burns.
- 32:28Speaker 7: Yeah, Burns, he grays out as the seventh best putter
- 32:31Speaker 7: for this specific course in my model, so obviously, I
- 32:35Speaker 7: think just taking show skin putting can be pretty noisy,
- 32:38Speaker 7: so I like to try to add in as many
- 32:40Speaker 7: layers as possible to make it as predictable as possible,
- 32:43Speaker 7: so with the surface, with the different sorts of ranges
- 32:46Speaker 7: that I think, and I also looked at how close
- 32:49Speaker 7: players are typically on approach and how they grade out
- 32:52Speaker 7: from putting at those distances, and with that, Sam Burns
- 32:55Speaker 7: is the second best putter from a proximity in my
- 32:58Speaker 7: model this week. So obviously, Sam Burns always going to
- 33:00Speaker 7: check all the boxes from a putting perspective. The forum's
- 33:03Speaker 7: in a good spot. You mentioned the T four at Memorial,
- 33:06Speaker 7: so sim Burns is a guy who also elevates a
- 33:09Speaker 7: little bit in these sorts of difficult courses. So I
- 33:12Speaker 7: do like Burns. I think he's at a good price.
- 33:14Speaker 7: He's like forty to one right now. I think I'm
- 33:15Speaker 7: drafting so Burns with someone that I certainly had. I
- 33:19Speaker 7: think he's in the top twenty five of my model,
- 33:21Speaker 7: so it's a very difficult field to really grade out. Well,
- 33:24Speaker 7: there's a couple guys who I was even surprised that popped.
- 33:26Speaker 7: But Burns top twenty five I think is a pretty standard,
- 33:30Speaker 7: probably in line with the market ranking there before.
- 33:33Speaker 1: We go too far away from the top of the
- 33:34Speaker 1: leader board. The biggest narrative going into this event is
- 33:38Speaker 1: Scott A. Scheffler Father's Day, big dad guy, his birthday
- 33:43Speaker 1: on Sunday. Any US Open would finish and complete his
- 33:47Speaker 1: career Grand Slam. How much do you factor all of
- 33:50Speaker 1: that in? That is a pretty we try not to
- 33:53Speaker 1: bet narratives. I know this, Kyle, but this is pretty
- 33:55Speaker 1: heavy stuff.
- 33:57Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 33:58Speaker 7: I mean, I think the the birthday thing is fun
- 34:01Speaker 7: for for some some sports.
- 34:04Speaker 5: I think the fathers, they.
- 34:05Speaker 2: Think they don't have that in your projections.
- 34:07Speaker 5: Burnut model certainly not and definitely not in golf either.
- 34:10Speaker 7: Where it's like, you know, it can be your birthday
- 34:11Speaker 7: and you know the golf course doesn't care that it's
- 34:14Speaker 7: your birthday, but you know, the fathers, I think that
- 34:16Speaker 7: I think those things will be things that are great
- 34:18Speaker 7: for you know, Jim Nantz to talk about. But in
- 34:20Speaker 7: terms of modeling the event, don't factor anything like that in.
- 34:24Speaker 7: But you know, the career grand Slam, I think that's
- 34:26Speaker 7: something that you could say is a positive or negative.
- 34:29Speaker 7: I mean, we saw it be a negative for Rory
- 34:30Speaker 7: for years, so again that's also something that's difficult for
- 34:33Speaker 7: me to quantify. So the narrative based you know, also,
- 34:37Speaker 7: Scotty doesn't need any help being at the top of
- 34:39Speaker 7: my model He's got a pretty wide gap up there anyway,
- 34:41Speaker 7: So those things aren't factored in. But obviously nothing's holding
- 34:46Speaker 7: Scottie back here.
- 34:47Speaker 4: I feel like our comments section is going to go
- 34:49Speaker 4: nuts and we're doing our audience a disservice if we
- 34:51Speaker 4: don't ask you for your favorite long shot of the weekend,
- 34:56Speaker 4: give it to us.
- 34:58Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 34:58Speaker 7: I kind of tease this one a little bit earlier,
- 35:00Speaker 7: but my favorite long shot is Kurt Kittiyama this week.
- 35:03Speaker 7: He's I think seventy two to one right now on DraftKings,
- 35:06Speaker 7: I guess I could give out a longer long shot
- 35:08Speaker 7: if we if needed, at seventy two to one. If
- 35:10Speaker 7: that's not long enough, But Kittiama was the guy that
- 35:13Speaker 7: I mentioned when I was talking about a putter who's
- 35:16Speaker 7: historically a very bad putter, but actually grades out well
- 35:19Speaker 7: putting this week. So he's someone that again strokes game
- 35:23Speaker 7: putting when you look at it, probably towards the back
- 35:26Speaker 7: end of this field most weeks. But the way that
- 35:29Speaker 7: the proximity model worked with putting this week, the way
- 35:31Speaker 7: that the surface splits work this week, Kittiama actually gets
- 35:34Speaker 7: a positive grade I'm putting, and that's pretty much the
- 35:37Speaker 7: only downfall of his game. I think scrambling's going to
- 35:39Speaker 7: be very important. He doesn't grade out as a great scrambler,
- 35:42Speaker 7: but he's also not a negative scrambler either, So Kittiam
- 35:46Speaker 7: at seventy two to one well be my favorite long
- 35:47Speaker 7: shot if we want to go even longer. The name
- 35:50Speaker 7: that I would look at is Jackson Coyven, And this
- 35:52Speaker 7: one is tough because I hate to essentially just follow
- 35:55Speaker 7: the buzz of the public. Coven's going to make his
- 35:58Speaker 7: last amateur start this year. He's one of the best
- 36:00Speaker 7: college golfers maybe of all time in terms of what
- 36:03Speaker 7: he's done on his resume, and he's going pro officially
- 36:07Speaker 7: for going his last year in college to go pro,
- 36:09Speaker 7: but this will be his last amateur event, so obviously
- 36:12Speaker 7: there's a lot of buzz around him. But he's also
- 36:14Speaker 7: one of the better golf prospects of maybe of all time.
- 36:17Speaker 7: So at you know, one fifty to one around there,
- 36:21Speaker 7: Covin is someone that I do have an eye on.
- 36:24Speaker 5: Again, I do.
- 36:24Speaker 7: Think that this is a tricky spot for me because
- 36:27Speaker 7: part of me says, Okay, he's a great player. I
- 36:29Speaker 7: think he's sort of built for this sort of course,
- 36:32Speaker 7: but also you got to feel that his he's a
- 36:34Speaker 7: little bit souped up in terms of his price because
- 36:37Speaker 7: of how much buzz he does have. So at one
- 36:39Speaker 7: fifty to one, I'll probably throw a couple bucks on it.
- 36:41Speaker 7: But he's also someone that I had an eye on
- 36:43Speaker 7: for a long shot.
- 36:45Speaker 4: Does your model give any bump to Cam Young for
- 36:47Speaker 4: this being at home crowd for him.
- 36:50Speaker 7: Not home crowd bumps necessarily. I do think that that
- 36:53Speaker 7: could potentially help him. I mean that was you know,
- 36:57Speaker 7: positive for him. I think, at least at the Ryder Cup.
- 37:00Speaker 7: I remember doing the Ryder Cup show at actually Networking
- 37:02Speaker 7: talking about Cam Young and that being a reason why
- 37:04Speaker 7: I liked him. So I do think that that sort
- 37:05Speaker 7: of atmosphere could potentially be, you know, a home crowd bump.
- 37:10Speaker 7: But for me, I think right now we see on
- 37:13Speaker 7: pretty much any PGA Tour event the Europeans getting getting
- 37:16Speaker 7: a hard time. But typically I think the golf crowds
- 37:19Speaker 7: pretty pretty tame on most weeks. So I don't know
- 37:23Speaker 7: if I'll give him a bump there for home course advantage.
- 37:25Speaker 7: But you know, you have to also assume that he's
- 37:27Speaker 7: used to these sorts of conditions, but that also plays
- 37:29Speaker 7: out in the model naturally. I mean, he's one of
- 37:31Speaker 7: the better grades in terms of major pedigree for me,
- 37:35Speaker 7: even though he hasn't won a major yet, I do
- 37:36Speaker 7: think that he's someone that grades out really well from
- 37:39Speaker 7: you know, the standpoint of playing well in these sorts
- 37:42Speaker 7: of environments and in these majors, especially difficult tracks, so
- 37:46Speaker 7: he certainly gets a lot of positive grades.
- 37:48Speaker 6: Nonetheless, you mentioned that, you know, you mentioned some long shots,
- 37:52Speaker 6: but you also mentioned earlier a couple of guys who
- 37:54Speaker 6: you were surprised popped in the model. Do you want
- 37:56Speaker 6: to name one or two of those that kind of
- 37:58Speaker 6: caught your eye?
- 38:00Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 38:00Speaker 7: The first one I was surprised popping was was Kurt
- 38:03Speaker 7: Kadiama as high as he did. I have him graded
- 38:05Speaker 7: out as the twelfth highest player in my model this week,
- 38:08Speaker 7: which is a pretty aggressive stance there.
- 38:09Speaker 5: But again, I do like him quite a bit.
- 38:12Speaker 7: Another one is, believe it or not, Patrick Cantlay not
- 38:15Speaker 7: necessarily my favorite golfer to bet on, certainly not an
- 38:18Speaker 7: exciting golfer, certainly more of a consistent golfer. I probably
- 38:22Speaker 7: won't bet him outright, but I think the top twenty
- 38:24Speaker 7: is probably where I'll land. I'm betting on Patrick Cantley.
- 38:27Speaker 7: I do think that his upsides a little bit lower
- 38:30Speaker 7: than most guys I would typically like to bet for
- 38:32Speaker 7: an outright here this week, but at forty five to
- 38:35Speaker 7: one in the long right the outright market, I do
- 38:38Speaker 7: think that he's an interesting rank, at least for me
- 38:42Speaker 7: this week in my model, in terms of the way
- 38:45Speaker 7: that my model grades players out in order. One that
- 38:49Speaker 7: was interesting was Tommy Fleetwood being third in my model
- 38:51Speaker 7: this week. I don't want to say super interesting because
- 38:54Speaker 7: He's obviously a fantastic golfer, but I think he's seventh
- 38:56Speaker 7: or eighth in terms of where the market has him.
- 38:59Speaker 7: But I'm very high at fleet this week. He's probably
- 39:00Speaker 7: gonna be my favorite outright bet of the week. I mean,
- 39:04Speaker 7: I like him more as it gets windier because he's
- 39:07Speaker 7: such a great wind player, But he's also a fantastic
- 39:10Speaker 7: player in these sorts of elements. You know, when you
- 39:13Speaker 7: talk about being able to scramble, get up and down,
- 39:15Speaker 7: he's one of the better players in the world at that.
- 39:17Speaker 7: So I do think that that's going to be a
- 39:19Speaker 7: spot where all these guys are going to have to
- 39:20Speaker 7: get up and down because the wins going to affect
- 39:23Speaker 7: shot types and ball flights so frequently on approach shots
- 39:27Speaker 7: this week. So if Fleetwood can do that like he
- 39:29Speaker 7: has over the past couple of years, I think he's
- 39:31Speaker 7: going to be certainly in contection this week.
- 39:33Speaker 5: High high level. What is driving that?
- 39:35Speaker 6: What is driving that discrepancy between your model and the
- 39:38Speaker 6: market on Kiddiyama, I.
- 39:40Speaker 7: Certainly think it's because of the way that I'm grading
- 39:42Speaker 7: out putters this week, and I think that's going to
- 39:45Speaker 7: be the main reason why a lot of these guys
- 39:48Speaker 7: sort of differ in my model. I also think that
- 39:51Speaker 7: I'm going pretty heavy on wind play, and you know,
- 39:56Speaker 7: Kidiyama is the fifth best player in wind and my
- 39:59Speaker 7: model what is forth So I think that's certainly driving
- 40:02Speaker 7: a lot of it as well. But for tod Homa specifically,
- 40:05Speaker 7: it's certainly the wind as well as the putting because
- 40:08Speaker 7: again surf stain putting, he's outside of the top ninety
- 40:11Speaker 7: in this field. But the way that my model is
- 40:13Speaker 7: grading up putting this week, where it's more so proximity
- 40:15Speaker 7: based and surface based and also avoiding three putts, he
- 40:19Speaker 7: grades out really well there. So that's giving him a
- 40:21Speaker 7: huge bump in my model.
- 40:22Speaker 5: And the outcome too deep.
- 40:25Speaker 6: How often will you kind of tweak things based on
- 40:30Speaker 6: the wind forecast as we get more certainty leading up
- 40:34Speaker 6: to the tournament, Like, how often are you gonna look
- 40:36Speaker 6: at it and tweak based on the wind, and because
- 40:38Speaker 6: obviously as we get closer, we're gonna have more certainty
- 40:40Speaker 6: than we do right now.
- 40:43Speaker 7: Yeah, I think the way. So this week specifically, I'll
- 40:46Speaker 7: probably tweakeet more because I do think that link style courses,
- 40:48Speaker 7: especially this one, are more vulnerable to wind. So if
- 40:53Speaker 7: it does get windyar if the wind does pick up,
- 40:55Speaker 7: I do think of course like this is going to
- 40:56Speaker 7: be more defenseless against that sort of of that win.
- 41:00Speaker 7: So this will certainly be a course that I change
- 41:03Speaker 7: pretty significantly. But there are also courses out there that
- 41:06Speaker 7: don't have that same sort of you know, wind element.
- 41:09Speaker 7: You know, courses with you know, the big tall trees
- 41:11Speaker 7: that you're seeing kind of blocking out a lot of
- 41:12Speaker 7: that wind. But if you go to you know, the
- 41:15Speaker 7: Hawaii events, if we get wind in the forecast there,
- 41:17Speaker 7: it'll be changed pret dramatically. So it certainly depends on
- 41:19Speaker 7: the kind of course. But this week specifically, if the
- 41:22Speaker 7: wind does pick up, it it will certainly uptick in
- 41:25Speaker 7: my model for sure.
- 41:26Speaker 1: There's anything you've learned from our podcast over the last
- 41:29Speaker 1: couple of weeks, it's value wind at Wrigley, value wind
- 41:32Speaker 1: in Omaha, value wind on links golf courses. I don't
- 41:38Speaker 1: envy the position that you're in and trying to project
- 41:41Speaker 1: and model golf. It feels so over generalized to say this,
- 41:45Speaker 1: but I feel like it applies to this.
- 41:47Speaker 2: Sport more than any other.
- 41:48Speaker 1: Every time I start to look at one of these
- 41:50Speaker 1: big time golf events, all I hear from people is
- 41:53Speaker 1: the field is so wide open. There are so many
- 41:56Speaker 1: guys that are talented enough to win an event like
- 41:59Speaker 1: this or any of this magnitude. How do you make
- 42:02Speaker 1: sense of that? With so many great options that are
- 42:04Speaker 1: out there? We've have we ever seen a field week
- 42:08Speaker 1: after week as deep in the majors and the signature
- 42:11Speaker 1: events as we.
- 42:12Speaker 2: Have right now.
- 42:14Speaker 5: I mean, I think it's hard to say.
- 42:15Speaker 7: I will say, like, you know, my my golf following
- 42:18Speaker 7: really picked up when I started betting it probably five
- 42:20Speaker 7: or six years ago. So I don't want to speak
- 42:22Speaker 7: too firmly on you know, too much farther you know,
- 42:26Speaker 7: past that. But I've had the argument a couple of
- 42:28Speaker 7: times with you know, talking about Tiger's dominance for Scotty's dominance.
- 42:32Speaker 7: Obviously Tiger was the most dominant golfer in that era
- 42:35Speaker 7: back then, but also the field discrepancy is massively Even
- 42:39Speaker 7: when you look at some of the work that Data
- 42:41Speaker 7: Golf has done on field strength during those times, right now,
- 42:44Speaker 7: it's unheard of how how deep these fields are. I mean,
- 42:47Speaker 7: when you just think about Jackson Coyvin, I mean, he's
- 42:50Speaker 7: an amateur and he's arguably a top forty player in
- 42:54Speaker 7: this field already, Like there's just so much young talent,
- 42:56Speaker 7: so so yeah, the fields are just massively.
- 42:58Speaker 5: Deep and it is.
- 43:00Speaker 7: Yeah, I can see the concept of it being wide
- 43:02Speaker 7: open every single week for sure, But I think that's
- 43:05Speaker 7: kind of for me what makes odd shopping so important,
- 43:07Speaker 7: making sure that you're finding value everywhere you can. So
- 43:10Speaker 7: that's certainly one thing that I would recommend, because there's
- 43:12Speaker 7: a lot of discrepancies, especially in the outright market for golf.
- 43:15Speaker 6: Now do you have it's obviously difficult to pick an
- 43:18Speaker 6: outright winner, So I'm curious on how you approach the
- 43:22Speaker 6: strategy of how you attack some of these golfers. So
- 43:25Speaker 6: if you like someone, you know, are you generally layering
- 43:29Speaker 6: in top ten, top twenty, top five, or just really
- 43:32Speaker 6: just depend on the price for each specific one. Do
- 43:34Speaker 6: you have like an overall philosophy and how you approach that.
- 43:37Speaker 7: Yeah, I would say it depends on price and profile
- 43:40Speaker 7: of the player. So typically when I bet someone outright,
- 43:42Speaker 7: I'm always going to bet them for a top twenty
- 43:45Speaker 7: or a top ten as well, depending on what the
- 43:46Speaker 7: price and the value is there. But also you know,
- 43:49Speaker 7: for example, a guy like Patrick Cantlay, who is a
- 43:51Speaker 7: guy that I do like, but doesn't necessarily have like
- 43:54Speaker 7: the ceiling grade that I sort of think is necessary.
- 43:57Speaker 7: You know, even though Kurkidiyama probably isn't this super consistent player,
- 44:01Speaker 7: We've seen this ceiling for him consistently. He's been in
- 44:04Speaker 7: contention at majors before, he's one tough events before, so
- 44:07Speaker 7: he has this ceiling that you sort of need to
- 44:09Speaker 7: upset some of these top guys like Scotty and Rory.
- 44:12Speaker 7: Not to say that he is going to project to
- 44:14Speaker 7: do that all that often, because that's just a difficult
- 44:16Speaker 7: thing to do, but I think profile he certainly checks
- 44:19Speaker 7: the box in terms of having that ceiling.
- 44:21Speaker 5: Also has a lot of downside.
- 44:22Speaker 7: I mean, if the putter in the short game goes
- 44:24Speaker 7: wrong for Kidiama, he's going to have a very tough time,
- 44:26Speaker 7: but the upside is certainly there. So I would say
- 44:29Speaker 7: profile and price is probably the two things that come
- 44:31Speaker 7: into that for the most part. But I do tend
- 44:33Speaker 7: to layer it down as well. If I'm betting outright,
- 44:36Speaker 7: I also likely have some exposure to top twenty or
- 44:38Speaker 7: top ten as well, or something in the matchup markets.
- 44:41Speaker 5: Got it.
- 44:41Speaker 1: Kyle has us properly prepared to make our US Open bets.
- 44:48Speaker 1: Let's plant some flags presented by DraftKings. Top five, top ten,
- 44:52Speaker 1: head to head outright, whatever you want to roll with
- 44:55Speaker 1: your best bet for the US Open.
- 45:00Speaker 6: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
- 45:02Speaker 5: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that text.
- 45:05Speaker 1: You've already kind of ruined my cap for this, Kyle,
- 45:09Speaker 1: and your explanation of the second shot is the most
- 45:12Speaker 1: important shot for you. You've elevated putting, and my cap is
- 45:16Speaker 1: I will just start for us here. Russell Henley forty
- 45:19Speaker 1: one to one to win the event. Number one golfer
- 45:23Speaker 1: on tour right now in terms of driving accuracy, So
- 45:27Speaker 1: already not in love with my own cap here. These
- 45:30Speaker 1: fairways are unforgiving, so I need a golfer that isn't
- 45:33Speaker 1: going to put himself into harm's way. Henley has finished
- 45:35Speaker 1: top ten in the US Opening back to back years.
- 45:38Speaker 1: You picked up a win less than a month ago
- 45:40Speaker 1: out in fort Worth, current form, course style fit. That's
- 45:44Speaker 1: my best bet, Kyle. What do you think and what
- 45:46Speaker 1: are you rolling with?
- 45:47Speaker 5: Yeah?
- 45:47Speaker 7: I mean Henley actually grades out as a pretty solid
- 45:52Speaker 7: edge in the outright market for me as well, So
- 45:53Speaker 7: I don't mind Henny play, even though he's not going
- 45:55Speaker 7: to necessarily vomb it off the tee. You know, he's
- 45:58Speaker 7: a guy who also has the ceiling in the putting
- 46:01Speaker 7: game as well, so again that's also something that makes
- 46:04Speaker 7: the putting grade better. So Henley checks the box there
- 46:07Speaker 7: for me. For me, I'm going Tom with Fleetwood. As
- 46:10Speaker 7: for top ten as my top bet. I talked about Fleetwood.
- 46:13Speaker 7: I like him quite a bit. I do like him
- 46:15Speaker 7: in the out market as well. He's my favorite outright
- 46:17Speaker 7: bet of the week. He's my pick to win for
- 46:19Speaker 7: this tournament. But top ten is gonna be my best
- 46:22Speaker 7: bet for the week.
- 46:23Speaker 2: Kendrill, let's go to you.
- 46:24Speaker 3: I'm pivoting because I was gonna.
- 46:26Speaker 4: Go brooks Kaepka top ten, but you shit all over
- 46:30Speaker 4: it and talk to.
- 46:30Speaker 3: Me out of it.
- 46:31Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go with Cam Young top ten plus
- 46:34Speaker 4: two fifty for the home crowd advantage angle, because why not.
- 46:39Speaker 4: I like something silly, and yeah, that's that's That's what
- 46:43Speaker 4: I'm going with, and that's that.
- 46:45Speaker 2: Come on, we need we need a Scotti bet.
- 46:46Speaker 1: But Stucky never ventures at the top of the top
- 46:50Speaker 1: of the board when we're talking golf, So go ahead
- 46:53Speaker 1: hit me with This is.
- 46:54Speaker 4: Gonna be the most obscure thing we've heard in like
- 46:56Speaker 4: the last three weeks, actually talking.
- 46:57Speaker 6: About I'm gonna go best bet, I'm gonna go Sam
- 47:00Speaker 6: Burns top twenty plus one thirty five I think, but
- 47:03Speaker 6: also sprinkle a little on him forty to one. It's
- 47:08Speaker 6: who I had circled and Kyle didn't say anything to
- 47:12Speaker 6: talk me off of it, so I'm still Burns.
- 47:15Speaker 2: That's what price did you get on that top twenty for.
- 47:19Speaker 6: Top twenty plus one thirty five?
- 47:21Speaker 5: Ish?
- 47:21Speaker 2: Okay, all right, let's recap here.
- 47:23Speaker 1: We've got Kendra is on Cam Young top ten, Hometown
- 47:27Speaker 1: Guy plus two fifty stuck, he is on Sam Burns
- 47:30Speaker 1: Top twenty finish at plus one thirty five, Kyle Murray,
- 47:34Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood top ten plus one ninety six over on
- 47:38Speaker 1: Draft Kings, and I am on our Alsoul Henley forty
- 47:40Speaker 1: one to one to win.
- 47:42Speaker 2: Outright.
- 47:43Speaker 1: You can get all of those odds over on the
- 47:46Speaker 1: Draft Kings sports app. Kyle, thanks so much for the time.
- 47:49Speaker 1: We really appreciate it.
- 47:51Speaker 7: Yeah, thanks for having me, Kendra. If Brooks does finish
- 47:53Speaker 7: top ten, I'm sorry, I'll take blame for that.
- 47:55Speaker 5: But I like the game.
- 47:56Speaker 1: Don't pick Yeah, okay, deal you will owe her hold
- 48:00Speaker 1: hard cash.
- 48:01Speaker 2: That'll do it for today's episode.
- 48:03Speaker 1: The Favorites will return on Thursday afternoon right here on
- 48:06Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page or wherever you download your
- 48:09Speaker 1: favorite podcasts. Our Show Today has been presented by DraftKings.
- 48:12Speaker 1: The crown is yours.
- 48:15Speaker 7: The own.
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