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Best Bets NFL Week 15 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: is our week fifteen, Thursday NFL episode. This is the
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: episode when we get feedback from the wise guys who
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: listen to the show. We make our Survivor pick and
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: build our Monday Line Underdog Round Robin. We'll give out
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: our Foxhole bit, our big Balls bet of the week,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: and we narrow down our picks for the free to
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Them contest. As our old pal Colin Coward likes to say,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there, because there's a
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: sea of money out there. If you want to follow
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: along with our official bets, you can check them out
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: on the contest website Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com when
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday. If you
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: prefer using the award winning Action app, you can also
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: track all the bets. Simon and I lock in by
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: following two accounts to Phase five and the Favorites Podcast. Now,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: let's bring in my co host, My companion, Mike padre
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: My BFF professional better Simon hunter Head, Oh saw him.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: In Hello Ho, Chad Brother.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: You got some froggy, some sleepy froggy today.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: I'm sick. I've been sick for two weeks and it's
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: six in the morning. This is what you're getting people,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: This is as it gets.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: You're fighting through it. You're coming to the table with
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: everything you got because you're committed to this podcast, You're
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: committed to our audience. The good news is, I don't
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: think we've had a week this year where we've been
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: more aligned from the jump on say, five to seven games.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: In fact, we're getting a little it's week fifteen. We're
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit smarter about this contest. I was
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: doing research last night for the show and feeling more
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: and more confident about the Bears, which was your Simon
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: says at three and a half, And then I got
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: nervous that I saw this line move in and that
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: might move in the contest. So I did log into
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: the contest site last night, and since the Bears were
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: at three and a half, I had to make four
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: other picks in order to make sure we lock in
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: at least the Bears at three and a half for
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: now as we go through this. So I did lock
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: in four other picks you and I debated them last night.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: We're going to run through all those plus others that
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: I think are still on the table, and we will
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: monitor before we officially lock in on Sunday. I'm excited
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: to see what we have in store for us today,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: what the sharps have to say, how the lines that
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: are moving are impacting us. A lot to discuss, but
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: generally feeling a lot less antsy about this than a
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: half in weeks. As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty five
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  Speaker 1: problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred
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• 3:39
  Speaker 1: all right. Week fifteen, a kickoff is approaching. Opportunities all
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: over the board. It's time for charp calls.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone range.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: Somebody say it.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Maybe what you do in.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: The funniest thing that happened to yesterday was definitely you
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: hitting me up trying to get our picks in. I
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: was like, Oh, Chad's excited this week, bug getting our
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: picks in. I don't know when the last time our
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: week got decided by half a point. It's been a while.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: So hopefully your instincts are white. You're right, and your
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: intuition's right, and it matters this week. But we've had
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: a run here. Either we cover and we went outright
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: or we just kept blown out. I feel like we've
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: not had a close spread here in a couple of weeks,
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: which has been a little weird. So I'm hoping you're
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: right this week. Maybe the spreads will matter, But yeah,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: it's been one of those seasons. If you bet the dog,
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: they've kind of been winning outright in a couple of
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: these matchups. I mean even last week right around Robin
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: came through betting these dogs. So yeah, I'm with Chad.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: We did we did her put our five in yesterday
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: a little early. But like Chad always says, our subject change,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: so things could change. But are we going to say
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: what our five r at the end of the show, right?
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: We will.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: At the end of the show, we'll lock in. I
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: tell everybody win our five hors. I'm built. You know
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: it's something content business. We call this building anticipation. You
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: know what can't build anticipation chut GPT. That's why it
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: can't replace us.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: Easy to say right now, we'll talk again in ten years.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: What do you want to do? You want me to talk
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: Saturday too for sharp calls or just Sunday.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think everyone wants to hear where the sharps
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: are leading, even if it's not games we can play
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: in the contest for sure.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I just found it interesting that a lot of
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: pros I talked to like the Denver, which I thought
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: was interesting. It's a game I really have much feel
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: for they do. Like Denver, still really have no real
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: feel for it, Like I kind of want to take
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: the lines if they get to three three and a half,
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: it feels like that's where I'd break, but it's still four.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: A lot of books. No real opinion from me, I
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: can tell you the professionals do. Like Denver the game
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: I liked two and a half Pittsburgh. I knew the
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: pros are going to be on it. It's just a
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Tomlin spot. It's what the professionals are going to play.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: Saw it coming a mile away, and I think it's
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: gone from two and a half to one one and
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: a half and a lot of looks. Wouldn't be shocked
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: if this closes a pick or just where it's at
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: right now. One it's just a coin flip game, so
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: not shotgains has come down. You know, the guys I
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: talked to like Pittsburgh. It's the kind of the same
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: reason I do. It's a good spot to back a
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: team on the road as a dog for Tomlin after
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: two bad losses. It's a cold team that you know
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: they've been overachieving like they have. I mean, an argument
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: that's crazy to think on my head but you know,
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: Steichen's been really good. They could be what a top
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: ten coach team right now. Like the Colts are seven
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: and five with a backup quarterback. They've really overachieved. I
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: think professionals like me are just looking at It's like, okay,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: it's gone long enough. The values shifted against them. You know,
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: did I see them getting blown out last week by Cincinnati? No?
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: But I did like Cincinnati this week. I actually do
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh. But like Chad said the other show, we
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: can't blame the contests, so I'll be betting it just
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: won't be one of our five. Now we'll get to
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: the good part the Sunday games. Let's start the ones
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: I got wrong that the pros like. And I'm on
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: the other side of it. Jaguars, I don't see it.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: I've had about twenty conversations. I don't get it. Everyone
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: thinks Baltimore is gonna slip up and this is a
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: bad spot, and they want to fade them this week
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: and then back them next week against I think the
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers. I don't know. I just I don't
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: see it. I just don't see the Ravens having back
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: to back bad games like last week was a bad
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: game against the Rams. I mean they kind of slept
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: walk through it, kind of should have lost, and then
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: you know, Lamar got that two pointer and they got
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: that kick return in overtime. It's just I don't know.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: It doesn't feel like I'm buying high on the range
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: because I think if they lost last week against the Rams,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: that's what this number would be. The number would be three, right,
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: So it feels properly priced. But I can tell you
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: I'm on the opposite side, So maybe me and Chat
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: won't to have some contest just because I've talked to
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: so many pros who love the Jaguars here, but don't
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: I don't see it walk into the trap with anyone
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: betting this Baltimore team. It's just I'm missing something. But
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: I can tell you if you just want to avoid it,
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: that's the pros like the Jaguars next time.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I don't feel like this was ever going to be
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: in our contest because I'm skeptical of the Ravens on
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: the road at a number of three, you're.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: Better Why though, That's what I kept saying to them.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Why are you skeptical of this number against a Jaguars team?
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Oh, it's not about the Jaguars team. It's about the
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: spot and Lamar Jackson is a favorite and historically not
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: being able to cover this kind of number. Why. It's
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: one of the reasons we liked the Rams last week.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: We liked the matchup, but we also liked the fact
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: that when Lamar is this big of a favorite, it play.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: Seven and a half though this is three points against
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: the Jaguar. I get it pretty much, no one.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: But that's the line of demarcation three year better.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: So yeah, just found an interesting another game. The pros
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: like that. I'm on the other side. They're like, Washington,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: I don't get it. I don't see it. I liked
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: I feel like we're getting good value on the Rams
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: at six and a half. Just gonna away. Apparently it's
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: it's a trap and I'm walking right into it. But
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: it's all right.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned that we're gonna let's talk about
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: that one a little bit later, because we were texting
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: about that one last night and I was trying to
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: get your sense. So, uh, that's definitely one we'll go
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: deeper on.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, don't get it. Uh, talk to a couple of
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: guys who love Dallas, which I was shocked, but I
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: thought everyone just be in unison on this Buffalo team.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: It's just another week of people split. It's like last
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: week with the Eagles Dallas game, and it's just people
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: are gonna be split. I mean, it's like the Eagles
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: forty nine Ers game. A bunch of pros are split
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: on that one. Same thing here. It's just there's some
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: guys who are just very dug in on this Dallas team.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: They really like them. I mean they're not uh, they're
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: not not that. I don't think they're overreacting, but I
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: do think they are where it's like, this is when
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: you get off Dallas. We always hit this point in
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: every season with Dallas like they're they're they're fans have
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: balled in. Uh Stephen A. Smith is gonna be talking
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: about them? Is is this the year the Cowboys win
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: the Super Bowl? Everyone's just gonna be drinking the kool aid.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: And this usually where I get off and I make
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: good money here, but I don't think people, especially betters,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: trust the Bills like I do, and it's hard for
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: me to disagree with it. Sean McDermott, his defense when
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: he is a lead has been atrocious this season, and
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: could we easily get back toward by Dallas. Yes, but
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: when I'm making this bet, this is a bet I'm
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: making of like you know, the Bills are going to
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: beat them by more than a touchdown. This won't be
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: a close game. So that's another on We're gonna definitely
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: have to dive into Chad. And then the last last
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: two that they agreed is long. Well, I guess three
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: no brainer. You take the Panthers here against Atlanta. Another
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: no brainer back in the Bears against the banged up
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Cleveland team, which we're going to talk about. And then
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: again me and you really don't talk much about. But
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: the pros love it. The Patriots, which I did think
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: we gave out at nine and a half. We's down
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: to seven and a half eight. A lot of books
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: not shocking there. The pros came in on it was
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: just too big of a number mix in. Now you
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: have all these bullshit rumors about Belichick. I mean, come on,
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: it's going to be pros versus Jows. The public will
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: be on the Chiefs, the pros will be on the Patriots.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: I'm just shocked it's moved two points since Tuesday, so
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: it was nine and a half. Now it's seven and
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: a half.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: forget to give us a like and subscribe to the
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. All right, you mentioned a lot
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: of the games that we're talking about. We got to
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: get to her Foxhall. We've got to get to Surviveor.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: I lost. I lost Survivor.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: We're done with Survivor.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got. I don't know if we brought up
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: last show, but I'm dead. Pittsburgh lost, Green Bay lost.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Oh that's right, that's right. I forgot about it.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: I'm still in one, but it's over. It is sadly
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: over for me.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I totally forgot about that. All right, Yeah, well listen again.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: Four.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: We got to get to our big balls better the week.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: As we've said all season, the public is having the
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: best year of betting against the spread. Here's some new
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: numbers from Evan Abrams Public Sides. The team's receiving the
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: majority of betting tickets this year one oh eight eighty
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: six and six. That is the best start through this
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: point in the season for the public in our bet
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Labs database, which goes back eighteen almost nineteen years now
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: to two thousand and five. It is not a streaky thing, folks.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Public has gone five hundred against the spread or better
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: in twelve of fourteen weeks this season. The fact that
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: the public keeps winning is remarkable. By the way, that
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: percentage is fifty six percent, just about fifty five point
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: seven three ish percent edge for what you need in
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: order to make any money, accounting for the juice at
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: ten percent. Public is crushing this year, which also explained
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: simon a lot of our challenges. Right since Week eight,
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: we've sort of been battling that two three two three
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: three two two three ekeing out wins because these sides
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: that we normally take haven't been covering. So another week
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: we'll do what we do. We're going to fight through.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: We're not going to be cowed by what has been happening.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: We're going to stick with our success metrics, our instincts,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: our research, our analysis, what we know to be true.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: First game up, we mentioned it, Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Browns are now minus three at bet three sixty five.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: This game is the reason I put the picks in
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: last night. It was at three and a half in
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the contest. I saw it moving. It only took fifteen
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: weeks for my instincts to think, okay, how will that
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: impact the contest? I made the bet. In the contest,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: we realize if I'm going to do that, I got
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: to pick the other four games. But this was the
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: game that made me want to do it. I wanted
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: this three and a half. This was Simon says. And
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: like you just said, this is about a couple things.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's strength has been its offensive and defensive line. Cleveland's
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: interior offensive line is decimated right now. Cleveland's defensive line
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: suffering through a lot of injuries, so you're getting a
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: healthy versus unhealthy advantage. Joe Flacco were peaked Joe Flacco
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: right now. That game last week against the Jaguars, big win.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: The strength of the Bears their rush defense is the
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: strength of the Browns offense, so that mitigates their rush
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: offense and puts more pressure on Flacco to be protected
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: behind an offensive line that is injured and a Bears
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: defensive end in Montese Sweat who was really coming into
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: his own right now. Plus Jalen Johnson is the number
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: one rated cornerback according to PFF. So should we be
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: betting the Bears on the money line here?
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get them in the money line around Rob
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: for sure. We just talked about it. It's like it's
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: a half point gonna matter. Probably not, but it makes
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: me and Chat sleep better at night knowing we have
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: a three and a half rather than a two and
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: a half. And that's the god honest truth. Yeah, the
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: publics has done well. But at the same time, you know,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: I say it all the time, Jennif our worst weeks
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: are two and three, yeah, you can quit your day job.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: You are really good at gambling just because two and
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: three weeks, I mean they hurt, but at a twelve
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: thousand people somehow we're instilled. And that's what top three hundred,
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: top four hundred of people in the contest. So it's just,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: you know, if you can mitigate your bad weeks as
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: a better it doesn't really matter how well the public's doing. Like, yeah,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: if they weren't doing this well, Chat, we me and
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: you being the sixty percent, Yes, a lot of those
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: dogs we bet on would have gone our way where
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: it's really gone the favorite way. But it stinks. But again,
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: it's it's OK all the time. If you follow what
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: we're doing, you're gonna be a long term winner. You
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: just have to make it through these rough weeks, which
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: for a rough weeks or two and three, life's pretty good.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: I will take that any time, because we've had one
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: one to four week and man was that painful. So yeah,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: looking at this game, we knew even whatever that was
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday and night we talked about it. We knew most
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: like we're going to be on it. But the fact
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: that you know, you go. I went back and watched
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: that Flaco game. It's incredible. I mean, he threw for
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: three hundred yards, multiple touchdowns. It was so bizarre watching
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: that game tape. But the biggest thing I noticed from
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: it was it was really, you know, well designed, but
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: it was all based off run pass. Like they would
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: either fake the run and the linebackers would step up,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: or they'd run an RPO and he would just do
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: one read and throw it quick to a Cooper. It
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: was just a lot of that. So the Bears, they
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: have really good linebackers. If there's a team that can
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: do well against those kind of looks, it is the Bears.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: Like they had the speed they had. The linebackers can
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: play that style, and you've seen it since you guys
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: have gotten help up front, like Sweat, the linebackers be
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: able to play better because he is clogging up those
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: holes and forcing the running back to go where they
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: went the running back to go. So yeah, Bears, nothing
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: would have moved me off this number, honestly, Like maybe
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: if there was a justin Fields injury, I would have
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: maybe thought twice about betting this. But Ben bennettson Sunday,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: the fact that every day we get another defensive player
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: hurt and out for the season from this Cleveland team.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: They've just had the worst luck of any team this season, right,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: like defensively, offensively, the injuries they had, I mean, they
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: lost the best player in their team, Nick Chubb or
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: I guess Garrett's the best player, but Chubb, and then
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: they lose their quarterback. It's just a disaster. So number
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: doesn't make sense. Chad, I still know why it is three.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: Could easily see this being two two and a half
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: by kickoff, And Chad's right, like, if you can still
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: get the three and a half, what are you waiting for?
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: We gave it out Tuesday Simon says, go grab it's
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: it is going to just go down to three.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one of those games, in one of
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: those teams. I just don't think bookmakers in the market
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: have adjusted to the Bears. They're caught up in the
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: narrative that this is a terrible team. They're caught up
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: in the narrative of what the Bears were before Justin
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Fields came back. They're caught up in the narrative of
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Justin Fields and the Bears blowing a massive leave to
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: the Lions in the final four minutes and Justin Field's
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: first came back two or three weeks ago. We talked
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: about it in the YouTube exclusive Favorites film Room, breaking
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: down Justin Fields. He's making better decisions, He's quicker when
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: he is making those decisions. He's making the right reads.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: The next four weeks as a Bears fan are going
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: to be fascinating because it will define the Bears fandom
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: for a generation. They have all the opportunities, all the
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: tools in front of them. They have salary cape space,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: they have draft assets. They have a quarterback who is
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: on the verge or do they get rid of that quarterback?
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: Gopher Broke get another quarterback with a longer tail in
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: terms of a financially responsible contract that they can build
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: even greater. Justin Fields is playing for his legacy. He's
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: playing for his future as a Bear. He's playing for
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: his future as a quarterback somewhere else. He's playing for
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: his next coach. These next four weeks are everything for
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Justin Fields and the Bears franchise. It is. The stakes
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: are massive, massive, and.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: A nice staff from Evan here, which is again, I
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: love Justin Fields, I love the Dolphins doing. But this
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: bet really is more about the Bears defense in Cleveland's defense,
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: so epa per play on defense. Since Week eleven, the
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Bears are fifth in the league, Cleveland's eighteenth, and yep,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: this is a Cleveland team that was historically great and
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: the injuries have just caught up to him, right, And
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: you can say it's matchup like, well, who of these
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: two teams? Different teams have played. The Bears have played
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: the Lions twice in that span, like one of the
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: best offense in all football, and they've made them not
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: look as great. So yeah, I'm drinking the cool at eschakag.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: We might we might get caught here, because maybe we
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: are by it at the peak. But it just feels
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: like what you had said is true. The books have
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: not adjusted enough to this bears defense what they've been
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: these last couple of weeks.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Atlanta at Carolina. You mentioned it right now in the
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: contest is three and a half, So that's another reason
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: why I wanted to grab it. It's generally three across
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: the board at most books. You and I both betted
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: at three. We talked about it on Tuesday. I almost
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: didn't want to talk about it. I think my one
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: line was, we know Carolina is the right side, we're
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: gonna bet it, let's not talk about it. But the
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: more I looked at it, and the more I did
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: a little research on sort of what they did against
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: the Saints, they just shouldn't have lost that game.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: And or if they did, we shouldn't have been by
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: whatever it was, twenty.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: It shouldn't have been by twenty something points. Yeah.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: They got a lockdown corner in J. C. Horn, who's back.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: They got a premier edge rusher and Brian Burns. Both
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: teams have terrible quarterbacks. Atlanta has really played on the
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: edge all season long, right, So I feel like we
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: are going to be more comfortable betting against Desmond Ritter
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: as a road favorite and taking what we think is
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the value in Bryce Young.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, comfort is not something I'd use in any way
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: for either side in this game. You're right, it's gonna
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: be an awful experience. I already know it, but Chad
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: just said it so well, where it's like, this is
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: how we win. We play these spots, we bet these dogs,
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: and it doesn't I'm looking at all the dogs right now,
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: like I'm going through it on my phone. I don't
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: think there's an uglier dog this week, Like this is
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: this is as ugly as it gets for the Panthers,
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: Like they are so bad that this is this is
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: probably the most public side, right I haven't looked. I
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: haven't talked to many book makers this week, but it
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: feels like when I talk to a bunch of guys,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be. Yeah, we desperately need the Panthers this week,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: just because everyone's out. The only people who were betting
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: them were the professionals. And you know, I've talked to
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: a handful and there's just some that are like, you know,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: like I do the thing right boycott teams. I talked
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: to a couple guys they boycott this Panther team. They
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: just they don't. They think Bryce Shung is broken right
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: now and it's gonna take it off season to fix them.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Where my view is what Chad just said is I'm
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: betting on their defense here Like this, to me is
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: a defensive bet on the Panthers at home outdoors against
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: an Atlanta team that historically doesn't travel great. They usually
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: play better in the Dome than they do outdoors. Uh.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: But you know, just looking at the record of this
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Atlanta team, they don't really blow teams out. Chad like,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: if you go through their schedule, yeah, yeah, Week one,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah they did blow out the Panthers, they beat them
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: twenty four to ten. But if you go through their
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: schedule every other game, they're usually win in by three points,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: two points, and then we've seen their.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: Points three point. I did. I did the same thing.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: That's why I'm saying they've been on the edge oh year.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: This is not a team that can blow a team out,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: and I don't think. I don't think they're as good
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: as they were in Week one, to be honest, I.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: Think it's easier when you get more tape on Desmond
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: Ritter because you know exactly what he wants to do.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: If you go through his tape he's got you know,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: there's there's throws he cannot make and there's s throws
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: he can make, and that's how they scheme it. And yeah,
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: another great stat by Evan. Every every Atlantic game this
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: year has a spread of three and a half for
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: points or less. Like that's perfectly sums up this Atlanta
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: team where if they're playing a really good team and
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: they're catching seven six points, Sharon men Chat wouldn't mind
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: backing them. But when they're playing all these mid blow
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: average teams like they did with the Bucks last week,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: it's like they really should be catching points against anybody, right,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: They're kind of a coin flip team every week.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: So most the second most public team this week seventy
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets on the Falcons, which, by
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: the way, it could be a good open with the
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: way the public is going this week. But we will
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: continue to fade the public.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we don't always, Like again, we ride
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: the public sometimes, but in these kind of spots, we're
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: getting a home divisional dog. Never never, never, never would
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: I just you know, ride ride with them on that one,
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: especially when it's a gregious number like this, where this
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: should be one and a half. Two. We're getting an
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: extra point for free because Carolina has been a joke
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: this season. So yeah, it's I don't know if I'll
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: get the three and a half. I know Chad Sepberg,
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: we got that in contest, but I've been betting the three.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: I have no fear of taking the threes. Just yeah, rarely,
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: we'll rarely do these games land on a push, especially
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: with the way these teams go for two pointers and
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: mistructure points. So yeah, Panthers, We're all in, like it's
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: gonna be in our contest. It's gonna be in our
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: money line round around up and and I'm sick for it. Uh.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers another one that might be in our
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: round robin. Three and a half at the Green Bay Packers.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: I got it. I bet the I bet the Bucks
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: at three and a half. I can't decide here, though,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Are we like? Are we wisely wisely bet against Jordan
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Love last week as a favorite on the road against
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: the Giants. That was an easy call, smash spot on
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: the Giants, so predictable, exactly what we expected it to be.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: He just looked like a different quarterback than he had
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: the previous month. Is this week a bet against Jordan
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Love or a bet on Baker Mayfield whose moxie we love?
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: Who you broke down in the Favorite film room yesterday,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: brilliantly give us our perspective here, because I know we
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: want to bet the Bucks. I have bet the Bucks.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: You have bet the Bucks. They'll be in our contest.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: But why do we like the Bucks?
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: It's a good number. But yeah, it's it is a
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: bet on Jordan Love. It should come back to Earth, right.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: It's his first year as a starter, so they had
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: a nice run. But like I said, it's time. The
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: more teams get tape on you, the more that they
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: learn the things you like to do and they take
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: away those things. And you know, Bucks coaching staff is
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: total dumpster fire compared to anything that the Giants have, right,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: and the Giants defense, they really put a tape out
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: there what to do to Jordan Love to kind of
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: take away what he wants to do, Like he doesn't
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: like dealing with the extra pass rusher, especially when he's
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: doing his little play action plays. You know, there's just
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: a bunch of things they could take advantage of, but
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: it is it is kind of betting on Baker Chat.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie, like I just feel if we're
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: down by a field goal, you know, or whatever, four
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: or five points and Baker as the ball, you know,
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: we're not totally dead. And that's a lot when you're
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: betting ugly dogs at this point of the season, because
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: it's just you know, if they were good the Bucks,
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: this wouldn't be a three and a half, right, And
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: that's why it is where it's like they're kind of
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: begging us to bet this one Chat, which I'm with
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: you is a little scary on it, Like, I wouldn't
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: be shocked that we do change it out if we
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: a game we like more, because you know, I did
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: think it was gonna be a bigger, better mind, but
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: now that we're sitting here Thursday, it's probably not one
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: of my five biggest bets so far, but I do
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: really like it, Like I like the number, I like
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: the spot. But I think you said it perfectly where
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: it's like this Bucks team, you know, they overachieved and
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: then they kind of lay an egg, and they overachieved,
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: they kind of laying egg, and this could be an
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: egg laying spot. Uh. But man, that's such a big
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: that's such a big spread, three and a half. It's
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: just that's that's my problem here is I'm just so
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: enticed by the number where I just I don't think
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: Jordan Love should be catching three and a half against
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: a team that's leading their division right now. It's just
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: it feels like it's too many points for Jordan and Love.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: So totally get if you're getting a little cold feet,
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: or if the fans of the show are. It's just
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: when I saw the spread, I felt like it was
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: a little too big to pass on it.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Definitely getting cold fit. That's fair, getting cold fit. It
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: just I know it makes sense. This is one where
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're using the word feel too much,
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: do you know what I mean? And we have seen
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: things in Baker this season. Times we've bet on him,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: and we haven't walked away from those games when we've
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: lost thinking, oh, I regret it. Oh, Baker is the reason.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: Oh we're putting the Bucks on blast or the Bucks
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: are going to be the team that we're crossing off
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: the list. The way we have thought about Bryce Young
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: or Desmond Ritter or Mac Jones, right Baker like he's
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: enticed us enough to bait us a little bit, and
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: it's very possible we're going to be fading Jordan Love
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: and a better coaching staff in a bounce back game.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: That's my biggest concern. Houston and Tennessee Tennessee two and
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: a half. This one we've debated a lot. As we
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: like to say, you're my guy and this is in
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: for now, I'm kind of agnostic on it. Don't have
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: a strong feeling. I know it's a verable spot twenty
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: nine to seventeen straight up, but as a favorite. We
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: talked about this on Tuesday, twenty twenty five and one
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Since twenty twenty one, nine and ten
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: against the spread at home and against the AFC South,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: the Titans have lost strict six straight divisional games straight up.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: What so.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: This was my feeling on Tuesday. I didn't have the
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: numbers to back it up as to why I love
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Rabel as a dog, don't like him as a favorite.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Demiico Ryan's discussed CJ. Stroud's status this week. He made
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: it seem like they were gonna be really patient. Think
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: long term, I don't think he's going to play this week.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: He was not in practice on Wednesday. So to me,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: this is a bet on Simon Hunter and a bet
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: against Davis Mills.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: Well find me, Evan, find me some what Tennessee and
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: Rabel have done to Houston in his career, because I
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: feel like it's been good. And auto bet I make
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: every year they play this game is Derrick Henry over
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: rushing yards, Derrick Henry anytime touchdown, and then I bet
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: Tennessee to win. So yeah, those stats scared me a
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: little bit. But for some reason, the gambler in me, Chad,
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: I've made some really good money bet in Tennessee against
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: Houston these last couple years. Okay, not Crazy's six and
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: four straight up against Houston his career a variable, Yeah,
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: it's honestly, I'm I just wanted to get the number
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: two and a half just before CJ got cleared or
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: if he is gonna come back, you know it'll stink
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: because I'm gonna lose value here. But if he is out,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: I do think this number will go up to three
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: and a half. Three, So I like it. I just
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: I like this spot for Tennessee. The defense they run
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: it is the best defense that like. They're the way
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: their secondary plays, it's the perfect matchup, best matchup for
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: Will Levison Hopkins as well for deep balls, like the
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: way they play, the way they're staying their safety step up.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: He's going to get one on one a ton with
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: Hopkins on the outside, and we've seen it where it's like,
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: you know, it might not be the greatest strow by
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Will Levis, but Hopkins is so veteran savvy he can
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: even push the defender off of him, but he knows
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: how to shield the arm with his body where it
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: doesn't look like he's pushing off, but he is to
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: get open and catch these balls. I just I love
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: all these little in game matchups for the offense. For Tennessee.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: The fear is Tennessee's defense. They've had major injuries to
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: the d line, They've traded away their best safety. And
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: if it's CJ Like Yes, Jed, I would be terrified,
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: it literally would be open season for them in the secondary.
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: He'll be able to pass all over them. But like
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: I said, if it's Davis Mills, we've got to be
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: feeling pretty good here about fading him as an under
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: a three point dog. So yeah, we have an end
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: of the contest round two and a half for this Sunday.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: If it's CJ. Chad, I got no issue. You mean
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: you switching this one out.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Gonna be interesting. I feel like there's a couple of
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: games and there's one coming up that I want to
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: see if we can have longer conversation about. But first,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Dallas at Buffalo. This was my exec decision. The Buffalo
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Bills minus two and a half. You know, you mentioned
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: in the Sharp Calls that Wise guys have come in
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: on Dallas and this number, this moved down. I thought
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: it was going to go to three, and even yesterday
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: afternoon it was two and a half minus win eighteen
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: like it looked like it was head into three. And
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: then Wise guys started pounding the Cowboys and it's at
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: it was at one and a half. Now it's back
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: up to two. I don't know why people don't think
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Dallas is at the top of the market. But there's
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: a couple of things about the Bills. And again we
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: talked about this in Green Dot Daily on Tuesday. You
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: mentioned this. The Bills schedule after this, they play the Chargers,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: they play the Patriots, I think, and they play the Dolphins.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: They end the season with the Dolphins. That could be
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: for the division. Right now, you get the Bills to
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: win the AFC East. This is a boost from bet
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: three six five. They're given this to us and our
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: listeners and we like it. The Bills to win the
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: AFC East boosted it to plus three twenty five. Go
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: to the NFL section of bet three sixty five under
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: bet boosts.
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: Got the Bills make Majana.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: This is about the defense. To me, Rasul Douglas fourth
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: rated cornerback Pro Football Focus, that defense is just getting better.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Since Matt Mlana went down in that game against the
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: Jags in London. It takes a few weeks for replacements
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: to come in and get a feel for the game,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: get comfortable with their new teammates, and be a part
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: of the flow. We did see that defense play much
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: better against Rotrick Mahomes. I like this this defense much more,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: and I think that was the biggest problem we already
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: got Josh Allen playing at MVP level. Doesn't make sense
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: to me why you would have wanted back the Bills here.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a little pushback on the defense would be the
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: fact that they have had a nice little run here
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: against back quarterbacks when they played one good quarterback which
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: hurts was he put up thirty seven points or whatever
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: it was against them. I'm right there with you. It's
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: more about fading Dallas. Like Dallas have had incredible turnover luck.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: I mean since what the forty nine Ers game, so
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: since October eighth, they've had some really good luck. Bounce away.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, they beat the Chargers by three points. The
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: next week they had their bye, Then they blow out
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: the Rams, you know, great game, lose by five to
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: the Eagles game they probably should have won. Then they
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: have blow Giants, blow out Panthers, blow out Washington, and
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: then they play Seattle on the Eagles, which were both
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: semi close games. They kind of blow up the Eagles
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: there at the end when they got all those turnovers.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: So it's a Dallas team that, yeah, like they can
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: be really dominant, but are they tested like this Bills
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: team is. Like this Bills team feels like they've been
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: playing playoff games for like five weeks now, like they've
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: just been through it. They're so tested. This is the
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: gauntlet we talked about with this Dallas team, Right, they
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: got to go Buffalo Miami Detroit, Like that's really hard
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: to run through that. I know it doesn't sound as
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: hard as it did a couple of weeks ago, right
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: when we had a lot more respect for Miami in Detroit.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: But all those teams can score and move the ball.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: And I've been saying it, like I think Dallas's defense
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: is good. Do I think they're a top three team
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: that people keep talking about they are? No, I don't
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: really think they're that great of a defense, especially scheme wise,
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: and they've just been living and dying off these turnovers.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: So yeah, if Josh Allen throws three picks, we're dead.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: Me and Chad know this. But if you can just
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: give us just one pick, protect the ball, you know,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: no cook fumble. It's just all about protecting the ball
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: for this Bills team. I don't see it whe Dallas
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: wins this game. It's just when you're looking at the
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: way it matches up. Like Chad said, there's things that
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: Bills can do defensive, they can stop this Dallas offense.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: I mean they they people haven't been talking about it.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: They cannot run the ball like this Dallas team. It's
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: been all Deck That's why he is the favorite MVP.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: It's really been on his back because they really have
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: not had a running game Like Pollard has not been
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: what they thought he was gonna be. He's not been
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: Ezekiel Elliott type for them, especially in the red zone.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: He's not been the running back they need. So you know,
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: if I was gonna say that the one biggest weakness for
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: that Bill's team is you can run it on them.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: I don't really have that fear here again with this
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: Dallas team, Chad, So nothing changed for me. Yes, the
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: pros as split on it. I still have a ton
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: of confidence in this Bill's team, especially under a field
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: goal at this number, I.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Agree, I have no reason to want to take this
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: out top of the market for Dallas. Improving team in
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: the Bills with an MVP caliber quarterback in Josh Allen.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: I thought you made a really interesting point the other day,
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen twenty to one to win MVP still a
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: live market in this right. And if Josh Allen wins out,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: beats the Chiefs, beats the Cowboys, wins the rest of
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: their games, leads the league in touchdown passes, leads the
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: league in total touchdowns, and that team wins the division,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: you're talking about a much different conversation, and Josh Allen
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: would be a worthy candidate for MVP. It's been he's
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: been phenomenal. He's been that whole team.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and again, eleven and six sounds way better than
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: ten and seven. So he does need to win.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Out Washington at the Rams. Okay, So I love this game.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: We were texting about it last night. We decided to
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: take it out of our final five when I was
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: rushing picks in Initially, is the skepticism from you? What
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: you said about sharp calls that the wise guys are
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: on Washington makes there's no sense to me. I feel
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: like this is a couldn't be more of a mismatch.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're getting lucky to get it under seven.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we'll see. I don't get it either. It's
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: like the Sampsonario, where again it's not the same group
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: where I'm like, we have to bet Washington, but it
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: feels like this is the Washington when they went up
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: to Seattle and the number dropped over to five and
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: a half, and I think the game landed on three.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: Seattle won by three. It's just I don't think they
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: can quit Washington, Like they still have those googly goggly
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: eyes for Sam Howe and how well he played to
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: start the year. And I'm with you, Chad. I got
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: zero interest, zero invested into Washington. All my bets so far,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: I've been on the Rams. Oh there you go. La
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: Ram's biggest public side right now eighty one percent. But
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: I don't hate it because they are home. Like it's
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: different for me when it's a home team and it's
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: non divisional, I don't mind it as much if it's
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: the biggest public side but not shocking here like this,
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: this to me will be and every money, one parlay,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: every teaser, everything's gonna be tied to this team. That's
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: why it's six and a half, right, you can six
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: point tease it. Yeah, all you need is I'm just
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: to win. You know, this is we say all the time,
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: this is the book money maker. Like there's always one
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: one game this week where the book needs desperately and
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: this is probably their their breaker. So yeah, if I
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: still had my Survivor contest, this is why I would
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: have picked the Rams here, Like I'm just I'm with Chad,
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: Like I love this number. But yeah, the the pros
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: love it. So when it got to seven, the pros
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: hammered it.
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: She's six six and a half now and the money
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: has been pouring in on the Rams and it's not budgeting.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: So just just be careful if you are betting the
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: Rams in this spot.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Is this her foxhole? It feels like we're in the
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: foxhole here, all right. We're in the foxhil with the
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams minus six and a half.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: a city.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: We love it going to the foxhil by the way you.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Love it, don't put me I like it. I don't
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: love it, guy.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: We're in the fucking foxhole. When you're in the foxhole,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: there are no atheists and you're always in love.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: That's it, Scientologists, we.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Are in the foxhol together. You're never half in a foxhole, Simon,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: You're all the way in the foxhol That's how you survive.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: That's true.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: That's the definition of foxhole. You're not sneaking your head out. Hey,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: what are the bad guys over there doing? Let me
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: sneak my head out. That's how you get snipered. We're
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: in the Fox Hull. We didn't big balls bet anything though.
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: I'm waiting for us to get to the show here.
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: Just make sure our graphic guys can get it right.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: We're not going to question it. We'll have a definite
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: big balls.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: All right, Well do you want to It might be
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: different than the one I'm thinking, So why don't you?
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: I have one more game I want to discuss. But
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: if I don't know if it's going to be the
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: game that is the shared big balls.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: So I was gonna say, Patriots for big balls.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Do we care that the number has moved so much?
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: No, we don't. No, I still think it has plenty
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: of room to move. Like we said all the time,
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: nine and a half is kind of a dead number.
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: Eight and a half, yes, that's important, but seven and
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: a half, I mean that's the key, Like you want
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: to grab the seven and a half. So it's just
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: I feel like it takes balls to fade. I'm a
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: crying my homes after, Like this guy has just been
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: raging all week. We're backing a Belichick team, awful win
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: a twenty one point. You know they scored twenty one
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: points last week. It just it feels like it is
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: gonna take some balls just because I just the guys
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: I talked to, like some pros are on it, but
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: most guys just want to avoid this game. They're happy
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: they won last week on the Patriots. Now they're gonna
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: avoid it. But yeah, it's either this or the Panthers.
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: And like in the chat, Mitchell said, not the fucking Panthers,
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: which I agree with.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: We did them last I was I was gonna say,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: how are the Panthers not our big boss?
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: And that's the only other option. That's why I'm trying
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: to go Patriots Panthers instead of that is that is
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: truly the biggest pall of that.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Of course I want to go Panthers. God damn it,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: we have to go Panthers.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna blow my nose while you yelled big all right.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: The Carolina Panthers. They're gonna be get the graphics ready, Tito,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Screw you, Matt Mitchell. It doesn't matter. We're going with
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers against the Atlanta Falcons. That is our
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: big ball. Better than we care. There we go. Matt
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Mitchell's comment, Oh no, it's gonna be so Carolina. I'm
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: saying fing because we are distributed. This podcast gets distributed
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: so much more widely that some of the distribution platforms
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: have been giving us feedback that maybe we should use
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: fewer curse words. So I'm not I'm not quoting Matt
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: Mitchell verbati the last Game. I want to talk about.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: Well, first, they want us not curse on a gambling
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: show that's meant for people with twenty one and up.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: And I say tax three all the time. I mean,
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: I'm talking about breaking the lall every week, but curse.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: We've given them that exact feedback we have said. Second,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: you know it's a gambling show. You know it's a
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: free flowing conversation. You know it's for people who are
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: twenty one and older. Cursing is a part of the
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: the language and the romance of this. Yeah, I'm just saying.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying, the motherfuckers don't want us to curse.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: New York Giants at New Orleans plus six, Okay, we
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: didn't talk about this much. We liked the Saints initially
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: when it was like four or four and a half.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: It got beat up a lot. Now I'm wondering, like,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: is there another side of this. I know it's scary
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: to go back to the Tommy DeVito. Well, this team
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: is playing well because Andrew Thomas has been back, hasn't
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: missed a snapping three games. They've narrowed it down to
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: three really good wide receivers. We saw how well they
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: were playing against the Packers. Saquon is healthy. But really
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: this is fading Derek Carr and Dennis Allen who we hate.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Derek Carr uh thirty four percent in his career against
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: the spread as a favorite as a favorite of a
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: field goal and Moore nine and twenty six. I think
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: that's about thirty percent. Dennis Allen in his career six
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: and sixteen is a favorite. Like, we're fading the Saints here,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: who we just don't like.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just don't get the number. That's what scared
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: me off. It's like, why is this not three three
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: and a half right that that feels right for the
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: way that this Giant seems been playing. How Tommy DeVito
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: has been playing just a weird number, Like I just
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: don't get it. And that's why I just really had
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: nothing to bet on it. Where it's like I took
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: a little of the six when I got up there
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: on the Giants, but for pennies, Like, nothing really bet
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: on this because I didn't really know what too much
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: to do with it, and you know, now I'm going
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: through app it's like they're one of the most public
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: dogs right now in the Giants. It's just I don't
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: like any of the any of the feeling for this one,
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: so I'll just pass on a chat. I got nothing
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: for it.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about, uh, the money line around Robin.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: But before we get to that, the week fifteen contest
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: tiebreaker is total passing yards on Monday night football, Billy Ward,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: our Action Network predictive analyst, writes a weekly article about
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: the tiebreaker strategy, and I link to that article can
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: be found in this episode's description. If you want to
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: leg up in the contest, good luck. I got three
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: teams that I'm thinking about for our moneyline underdog round Robin.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Let's think about what the other two would be. Chicago, Carolina, Tampa, Igo, Carolina, Tampa, Tampa.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: Who else should we go back to the well? Take
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: our boy, Timy Divido.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: I'm wondering, like, like the I like the number there, Yeah.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, I like, I like the big number. I
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: don't believe in it, but I like the number. Yeah,
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: and let's go with I mean this last one, I'll
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: call it the Chad Boy like the Jaguars. I don't
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: get it. But this is the weirdest line of the
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: week that we're not even talking about. I just I
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: got no idea what this line is. The Jaguars plus
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: three at home against this Ravens team that they're just
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: so much better than them across the board. This is
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: just such a weird number on a one leg at
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence. I mean, the guy crawled to twenty one
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: points against a terribly banged up Cleveland defense and got
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: outplayed by Joe Flacco. Now he's plus three at home.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: I just do not I do not get this line. So, yeah,
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: we might as well either them or yeah, we got
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: to throw one of them in this money line round. Robin.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell was recommending Pittsburgh.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: It's too low at this point. Now I'm looking at
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: plus one oh five. It's too low for us. All right,
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: let's go. We like the big ones.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell has never really listened to the show. He
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: doesn't understand the concept of what we like to do
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: with the most, though I'm surprised he didn't recommend a favorite.
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, let's go Let's go Jags or plus
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: one forty.
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: This will be in Matt Mitchell's review, by the way,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: and it'll kill You're like Matt Mitchell successfully recorded every
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: episode of the podcast this year, but he did not
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: listen because he doesn't understand the teams that we like
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: to put into the money line under Ron Robin, all right,
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: we're going to put in Chicago, Carolina, Tampa, the Giants,
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: and the Jags. Matt Mitchell is gonna scream at me, Simon.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: Let's make Little Caesars the official pizza sponsor of the
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: NFL part of all of our game day the holidays
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: are nearly here, Simon, Instead of cookies, do you think
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Santa would enjoy a Little Caesars hot and ready with
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: his glass of milk?
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: Pizza and milk go together perfectly.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the top
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: end you crave. Simon, what do you think about this
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: new motto I invented today right before the show. If
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: your first round pick was a colossal bust, cheer yourself
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: up with crazy crust.
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: Love it.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: However your order your however you order your pizza, you win.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: our in store pizza portal pickups. So grab some friends
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: and grab some friends and enjoy a few slices during
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: the game. All right. As a reminder, second time, catch
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday,
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: and Sunday. If you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: YouTube page. Simon, you mentioned Tampa Bay has not become
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: one of your biggest bets of the week, But what
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: are your biggest bets of the week right now?
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: Starting with Saturday? Definitely Pittsburgh like heavily bet it took
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: the two and a half, took the two. Don't mind
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: the one and a half either. If you're scared off,
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: deeze it. Go ahead and put in a teaser. It's
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: such a nice teaser number. Get up to seven and
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: a half. If if you're really scared off by new
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: England Patriots unfortunately getting up there the Bears, Tennessee Panthers Bills,
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: and I mean it was getting there. I mean it
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: probably is in my top five at this point with
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: the Ravens, but like, I don't know what to deal
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: with it. Like I just as soon as I went
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: back to three, I was like, I gotta grab us
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: because it's gonna go back up, and it just hasn't,
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: which is scaring the hell out of me. So yeah,
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: my chalkiest bet this week is definitely the Ravens. But yeah,
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: it's just I just don't know if me and ChIL
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: will get in the contest just because it's so chalky.
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: It's just an insane number.
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet
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  Speaker 1: three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
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  Speaker 1: bet three six ' five must be twenty one or
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  Speaker 1: hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms.
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  Speaker 1: Conditions restrictions apply. All right. Before we get out of here,
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: we're joined by Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: We talk about them all the time on the show. Evan,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: you get the last word.
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: We're finished talking.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: What's up? Fellas?
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: So Bill's Cowboys last two years Cowboys fifteen and one
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: straight up, twelve and four against a spread at home,
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: eight and eight straight up, eight and eight against the
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: spread on the road. Of those sixteen road games, seven
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: on turf, nine on grass, seven and zer against this
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: spread seven zero straight up on turf, one in eight
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: straight up, one in eight against the spread on grarass
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: overall on turf twenty two and one straight up, nineteen
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: and four against the spread the last two years. Now,
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: you say yourself, well to your sample, Okay. Since twenty
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: nineteen Dallas five and fourteen against the spread on the
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: road versus grass teams, they are seventeen and five against
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: the spread on the road versus turf teams, fourteen and
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: one ats last fifteen. Now, listen, I like Buffalo this week,
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: but crazy trend and going back just seems like their
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: offense is kind of rolling on turf, So interesting see
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: how it goes going forward. Buffalo obviously a turf field. Okay,
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: what a resurgence by the Broncos defense. So the Broncos
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: defense is actually third in EPA per play points added
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: per play since week six. In weeks one through five
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: they were thirty second last in the NFL. The Broncos
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: defense allowed a completion percentage of seventy three point six
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: percent through eight games type for the third highest in
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: the Super Bowl era since that point fifty five point
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: three lowest in the NFL. Crazy what they've been doing.
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: So see if that continues against Detroit tough in the
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: Lions then this week now finally, em betting football, travel,
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: rest and prep time are kind of a frequently debated
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: handicapping tool. It's noise versus substance, one fun angle, and
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: this is just a piece of information. As I smile
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: before I say, historically, it seems that it's difficult for
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: teams to exceed expectations after playing in certain locations. Teams
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: that play on the road coming off a road game
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: in Atlanta, Vegas, LA, Miami, New Orleans, or New York
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: this year four nine and one against the spread, last
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: five years thirty forty nine and four thirty eight percent
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: against the spread, last ten years sixty one, ninety eight
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: and six thirty eight percent against the spread. Minnesota, Denver, Tampa,
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: Houston this week. Of those eight teams that I met
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: that are in those cities, six are in the bottom
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: nine in the NFL. So if you look at the
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: whole league, those teams all the way at the bottom.
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: I can only say what the facts are, Chad.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: What am I supposed to take from that? But like
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: those are set cities, Yeah.
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: So basically party cities and just difficult to come off
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: those games. So Minnesota, Denver, Tampa, Houston, all coming off
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: those locations last week as a road game playing on
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: the road again, bad this year, bad, recently, bad historically,
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: just tough and they don't cover the spread in those situations.
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: So no matter what the line is, just difficult to
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: exceed expectations.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with that one. I
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: guess I'm glad we're not really on any of those
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: teams that are off of those locations. Thank you, Evan, excellent,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: excellent work as always, even if I don't understand the
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: last one. Rams minus six and a half is the Foxhall.
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Chicago three and a half half exec decision,
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: Buffalo two and a half, Big Balls, Carolina. I think
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: it's really Carolina three, even though in the contest is
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: three and a half. But Carolina three is the best
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: offer across the board. We got balls. We don't care.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: We're gonna say take it at three, Ron Robin, Chicago,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: Carolina Tap, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, New York Giants the Phase
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: five for now, all right, I did lock in five
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: games last night. Those five games Bears plus three and
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: a half, Panthers plus three and a half, Titans minus
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: two and a half, Bills minus two and a half,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: Bucks plus three and a half. That's it for now.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: We'll evaluate over the next few days. Very possible, Simon
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: and I decide the Rams get in there. Somehow, I
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: feel like the Bucks are on the on the fence.
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: We might lose our courage on the box. We won't
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: lose our courage on the panthers. I'll tell you that
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: right now. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever we
• 55:11
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• 55:13
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• 55:17
  Speaker 1: seven point thirty Eastern four Simon Hunter, I'm Chad Norman,
• 55:20
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