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Cattle: ICED Out · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Cattle Market Talk Podcast with Professional Ag Marketing.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: Come here to get your fresh updates on what's happening week to week within the cattle market.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: Today is June 13th.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Nick Bork here with us on the cattle podcast.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: Now, Nick, I'm gonna start off hot and heavy here.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Cattle were down a lot today.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: What's going on?
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it was just a big sell-off here today, Mike.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: I think uh there's kind of some worries in the in the packing industry, you know, with all these ice raids and and um uh certainly with some plants that were running at lower capacity in Nebraska that we know of anyway, that with some workers that got detained.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: So so I think uh just the sell-off concerns about um you know getting as many cattle harvested here as what um as what the industry was thinking, and obviously with as high as what we were, the board probably was kind of just looking for some excuse here to kind of sell off and correct a bit.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: We've had a really strong run here, and um June not selling off quite as hard because that has to kind of stay tied to cash here, but overall, um a lot of correction here today.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I think I think uh you know with with the the inverted market that we have and that the the you know the the lower fall months and stuff is is is really kind of concerning as we're placing cattle here, but but the the big thing we gotta remember is feeders haven't dropped as much.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: Boxes are still um still you know up in high 370s here today, so nothing real shaken or loose on the on the demand side of things yet.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: But um, and and I think obviously the the conflict there in the Middle East is is is playing into this as well.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Certainly that's concerning to the to the beef sector and just the overall economy.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: Didn't see as much of a sell-off in hogs.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: Um and you'd think that that would have the same effect on the packing deal, but uh has yeah, just wasn't as much sell-off there.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: So when you look at it, we'll talk about the workers specifically to start off here.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: The Omaha beef plant that was rated by ICE agents earlier this week, and they said they were only running at 30% of capacity, and uh that's about half of their workers that were detained there.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: So that news spread around the industry and could have some bearish sentiment just based upon not being able to kill as many cattle as what they could, uh their workers getting deported, things like that.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: So tell me, Nick, have you heard anything else along those lines of do you think less cattle got killed this week because of that, or what do you see in the in the week's kill?
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we certainly did see a lower harvest, only 100,000 head harvested today.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: The Saturday kill has been running around 2,000, so that's that's expected for tomorrow again, which is quite low.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: But the on the week, I think we're only around 570-ish, um, which would be quite a bit lower than a year ago.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: Um not like they had incentives to kill more than they needed to, anyways, right?
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Certainly, certainly.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: I think the pack the beef packing industry is kind of looking this at this maybe a bit as a gift because they can't procure the cattle through this time.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: So, what did cash do during this this week?
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the yeah, in the week here we in the north we we uh started out.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think there was some 240 cash, even maybe even some 242 stuff, um, 380 bids.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: But uh I think we pretty much halted that here all today.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: I know um in the south there it started out at 235 and was down to 227 here today, so about an$8 sell-off in the south, and there was willing sellers there.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think there was hardly any willing sellers at lower money here in the north.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: Well, one thing's for certain we did see a lot of risk off today in this uh in this market, at least, and part of that being from the news that we had last night where Israel bombed Iran, and that uh sent equities over 100 points lower there.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we saw crude oil up nine bucks, we saw gold up immensely on the overnight.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: So this morning it did open up a little bit shaky and then continue to build lower through the day's session here.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: And uh this afternoon the commitment of traders report showed 137,000 uh contracts of managed money longs there.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: So uh I guess we'll see what the market looks like in the next Commitment of Traders report.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: That would really show most of this week's sell-off, anyways, up till Tuesday, because this was one of the first weeks in quite a while that we actually saw a lower close in the Keattle markets uh over the week, week, week over week.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, sir.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thank you for your time today, Nick.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we'll see you next time.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks, Mike.