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Episode 133 - 10/3/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 133 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Thirsty Thursday, another day here in the arena, guys, the
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work week rolls on and luckily the long wait, jokingly long
0:43
wait, it's only about a couple days.
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We do have football back in our lives for today, including three
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Thursday Night Football games, one in the NFL, of course, Tampa
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Bay, Atlanta, which I have two plays for you.
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I got a side and a player prop and then we have 2 college
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football games. I got plays on both sides.
1:00
We're going to look for some hooks and some key numbers and
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then also we have a big baseball game today.
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That's right, a winner take all with the beer makers and the New
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York Mets tied 11 winner advances on to the division
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series in the NL loser goes home and we have a very sharp line
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move to take advantage of hopefully today in Major League
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Baseball. So overall 5 pack to NFL to
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college football in one MLB on a big episode 133 today of the all
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systems go pod. Now before we dive in our sweats
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today yesterday a day that I would very happily forget O and
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2 -, 2 units. The Orioles might be the worst
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team in the history of Major League Baseball.
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Oh my God, had a good sharp line move with the O's, even beat the
1:41
closing line as that. That number got up as high as
1:44
like -150 they tie the game 11 and then they have bases loaded
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with nobody out ready to take the lead and win the game.
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And what happens? All three guys get out.
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They don't score. They give up a run late, they
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lose the Game 2 to one. And it felt like every player
1:57
the Orioles sent up to hit struck out.
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So Orioles dead to me. What a pathetic performance in
2:03
two games getting swept by Kansas City.
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Then the other one that was kind of dead on arrival, San Diego,
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Atlanta under 6 1/2. We have obviously we're leaning
2:12
under there, took the under with the big juice move and liability
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and what happened? They scored nine runs and there
2:18
was a Jackson Merrill hit that pretty much catch the over I
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think in the second or third inning.
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So either way, guys, O and 2 -, 2 units, sometimes it's going to
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happen, 2 and O and two. What do we always say?
2:29
Never changes the thought process, never changes the
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mindset or the blueprint. Let's get right back at it today
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and hopefully cash some tickets and get right back in the green.
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So I want to start off with there's a Nick football.
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Three games overall, 2 in college, one in the NFL.
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Let's go to the NFL matchup here between the Tampa Bay Bucks and
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the Atlanta Falcons. So First off, get your Amazon
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Prime ready, your login, your authenticator, your passwords,
2:53
your streaming. It's always a weekly annoyance
2:56
for me. I don't know why we can't just
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watch it on ESPN. But anyway, big match up here in
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the NFC South. Let's set the stage and then I'm
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going to tell you why this is a perfect example of kind of
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reading the full line movement and not just betting a game
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maybe too early but looking at the overall picture.
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Not just reading the 1st chapter, but reading all the
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chapters and getting a better feel for where the smart money
3:16
is going. So bucks come in this one, three
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and one just took down the Eagles 33 to 16 easily winning
3:23
outright as a one point home dog last week.
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You know, the Falcons 2 and two just had a last second walk off
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win 26 to 24 with a big kick there to win it from young Hoku
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to beat the Saints. And in that game, they did not
3:36
cover, however, as a three-point favorite.
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But you guys know money lining short favorites intent.
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But anyway, setting the stage for this one.
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We open this game, Atlanta, around a three-point home
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favorite. And early in the week, this
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looked like a Tampa Bay play because Tampa Bay went from +3
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all the way down to plus 1 1/2. And one thing I noticed was, OK,
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big move here toward Tampa Bay. However, as we kind of moved on
3:59
and progressed throughout the week, Tampa Bay became a very
4:01
popular bet. Tampa Bay right now is getting
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58% of spread bets. But here's the thing, if this
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line was still at 1 1/2, it would be, even though it's quote
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UN quote public play, I'd have to give respect to that line
4:13
move. However, we've seen a big
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adjustment here on game day and game day moves are so important
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to me because they're really the most important moves of the
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week. When that's that's because
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that's when the limits are raised and the biggest bets come
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in. The odds makers and the sports
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books take in the biggest bets and also the most information in
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terms of injury reports and source plays.
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Really the day of the game, that's when the big plays come
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in. So when I woke up or went to bed
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last night, we had Atlanta -1 1/2 and I'm going to bed saying,
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OK, maybe I'll be on Tampa. Maybe I'll tease Tampa up.
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It looked like it was all Tampa, but then I woke up this morning
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and it was back up to two and now it's up to 2 1/2.
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So what does that mean? It means that we're seeing late
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breaking buyback on Atlanta. So even though Tampa Bay is
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getting nearly 60% of bets, all the game day movement is heading
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back toward the Atlanta Falcons here.
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So that's notable because this is a fade the trendy dog play.
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And again, you guys know I love dogs, especially primetime dogs,
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but I don't like popular dogs, especially when the line is
5:10
going against them late. So I am looking toward Atlanta
5:13
tonight, guys. Now, I just mentioned last week
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how they walked off against the Saints and we went money line.
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And if we went spread, we would have lost, but money line we
5:21
won. So I'm going to go money line
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here with Atlanta. They're -2 1/2.
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I'm not going to mess around with winning by one or two and
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losing my bet. So I'm Atlanta at -130 on the
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money line. Now if we stick with some of the
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bet splits here for this one, look pretty good on Atlanta.
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Atlanta's only getting 42% of bets but nearly 50% of money.
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So low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
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You're also contrarying in a heavily back game.
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Obviously this is the biggest game of the night, most heavily
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back game if everyone and their mother or not everyone.
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It's not as lopsided as 70 or 80%, but nearly 60% on Tampa
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Bay, Walk into a bar, people are wearing a Baker Mayfield jersey.
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That means I want to wear a Kirk Cousins jersey.
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So it is a contrarian opportunity and again, you know
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dogs, typically the public wants to bet favorites.
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So when a dog becomes popular and becomes trendy, therefore I
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want to bet against them. So Tampa is the trendy dog.
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All the late game day movement is breaking back toward Atlanta.
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Good bet split low bets, higher dollars.
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Also a buy low bad ATS team versus a sell high good ATS
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team. So if you go into this one, look
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back so far we've seen through four games, Tampa is 3 and one
6:26
against the spread. So people who have bet Tampa
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remember that they made money off them.
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Atlanta's one and three against the spread.
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So people have bet Atlanta are mad at them.
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However, typically when you're new to sport to say, oh, give me
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the three in one ATS team versus the one in three ATS team.
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But you got to remember regression to the mean never as
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good or as bad as you think. And I want to capitalize or buy
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low on the fact that Atlanta hasn't covered in the in the
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public's mad at them who have bet them versus Tampa has
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covered a lot. So you kind of learn to flip it
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around. I like you end up liking the
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team that's one and three ATS over the sell high team that's
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three and one ATS. Now, aside from the money line
7:02
bet here, there's a lot of angles to go home favorites and
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Thursday Night Football. Obviously it's totally different
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from regular Sunday games because it's such a short week
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here. But if you'll get Thursday Night
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Football home favorites, they're two and one straight up this
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year and they're 63 and 26 straight up 71% since 2016.
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So a pretty good sample size here. 8 plus years and we've
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seen these home favorites win 7 out of 10 times.
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So that goes with our Atlanta play.
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Also, I noticed the injury report is kind of really tough
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here for Tampa Bay in Favors Atlanta.
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Atlanta is pretty much fully healthy.
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Tampa Bay is going to be without a ton of important players.
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Luke got a key or get a key, they're starting right tackle,
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he's out. Antoine Winfield, junior, the
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good safety who they gave a big contract to entering the year,
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he's out. Defensive lineman Kalija can't
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see. He was a first round pick from
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PIT. He's out and two of their
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starting wide receivers, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer are out
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and even saw Mike Evans who will most likely play.
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He was on the injury report for I think both an ankle and a knee
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or he had multiple issues. So a long injury report for
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Tampa. A lot of important players out
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versus Atlanta, who's again ready to go here.
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Also, you look at the fact that the Falcons are playing their
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third straight home game, so no travel involved versus Tampa who
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is run visiting on a short week a a road dog on a short week.
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Again, tough turn around with the, you know, kind of shorter
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amount of time here to game plan to get ready, especially with
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all these injuries. So add it all up here, guys.
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This is a money line play for me.
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Atlanta on the money line. Again, if you talk to me Monday,
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Tuesday, I would have said this is probably going to be Tampa
8:39
Bay because of that plus three down to 1 1/2.
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But now all movements going back toward Atlanta, Tampa Bay is the
8:45
popular play. We can go contrarian with
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Atlanta. And now you're looking at a lot
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of these Thursday night home favorite system matches lining
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up with Atlanta while also Tampa Bay has a long injury report.
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So I'm going Atlanta on the money line at -130.
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Now in terms of the total, you know, it's basically an under
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nothing for me. Typically that's what I look for
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in prime time games. Currently you are getting 73% of
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bets on the over, but it pretty much 44 stayed 44.
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So there's some 43 1/2's out there.
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If you look at the under, it is getting 27% of bets but nearly
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40% of dollars. You're also looking at Thursday
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Night Football Unders 3 and one this year, they're 55% since
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2021. Prime time unders are 8 and
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seven this year, they're 60% since 2019 and divisional under
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seven and six this year, 56% since 2022.
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So it's under nothing, but I'm going to, I like this fade, the
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trendy dog spot. Take Atlanta.
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So my first play on this game is Atlanta money line -130 win the
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damn game. Let's go, let's go Falcons.
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And then my prop bet is Kirk Cousins.
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I'm going to go with Kirk Cousins over now.
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It was 228 1/2 passing yards earlier today.
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It is now up to 229 1/2. And I saw one book that was at
9:58
2:31. So as always, when you're doing
10:01
player props, you know, shop around.
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Always try to get the best number.
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On the one hand, I'm glad it's kind of rising second hand or
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other hand, you know, not great if you didn't get the good
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number, but hopefully we'll fly over this number regardless.
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So it's mostly 229 1/2 right now.
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First thing I noticed is that rhythm for Kirk Cousins tonight
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is predicting 258.8. So that is a 30 yard advantage
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here. Edge over the books again,
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rhythm is predicting nearly 260 and it's 229 1/2 in the betting
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market again tells us we have an edge here to play the over
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Cousins passing yards. Now Cousins has gone over this
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number in three straight games. He had 241 and week two against
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the Eagles he had 230 and week three against the Chiefs and he
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had 238 last week against the Saints.
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If you go back to his time before his injury with the
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Vikings, he's gone over this number in 14 of his last 20
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games. So that's 70%.
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This also be his fifth game with the Falcons.
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So new team, obviously the more experience you get, know your
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offensive coaching staff, your teammates, more experience in
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the passing game and familiarity in the passing game.
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I'm kind of looking for Cousins to get better, but with the more
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experience he has on Atlanta. And then we talked about
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injuries. Big injury report for Tampa,
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Atlanta's fully healthy. And one big advantage for
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Cousins and for Atlanta tonight is that Caleb McGarry, their
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starting rate tackle, he's expected to return tonight.
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He missed last week's game with a knee injury.
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So when Rhythm tells me we got A2, what did I say?
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259.8 or sorry, 258.8 and he's 229 1/2 in the betting market.
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And it even ticked up from this morning to now.
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That's an opportunity to go over with Kirk Cousins.
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So I'm going to go Cousins over. I personally got 228 1/2 this
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morning, but now over 229 1/2. Let's get him in the 2:30 so no
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one has to sweat that one. So give me Falcons to win the
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game and Kirk Cousins over 229 1/2 passing yards.
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Now more Thursday Night Football.
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Let's go to the college gridiron double header here.
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Let's focus on the first one Texas State in Troy.
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So this game is going to be played at what is it 7:00
12:09
tonight. And let me just double check
12:12
this one is on ESPN 2. So first thing you walk into
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this game and you say to yourself is OK, we got a big
12:18
number here this open Texas State as high as a 15 or even a
12:22
15 1/2 point Rd. favorite. And when you're looking at the
12:27
bet splits for this game. So let me give you some first,
12:29
some context here. Texas State is 2 and 2.
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They started 2 and O, they've lost two straight.
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Troy is one in four. So I think the reason for the
12:37
big spread and really what the public is doing is public is
12:40
saying we know it's a big spread, but we're going to bank
12:43
on the favorite to cover that number.
12:44
So currently, 60% of spread bets are laying the big points, the
12:49
double digits here with Texas State.
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However, despite 60% of bets going Texas State, this line is
12:54
falling open as high as -15 1/2 -, 15 -, 14 1/2.
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Now it's down to 13 1/2. So if nearly 2/3 of bets are
13:03
going Texas State, why is this line falling toward Troy?
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Tells me you have some sharp reverse line movement here on
13:09
Troy. Now Troy is again only getting
13:12
41% of spread bets, so you are conturring in a heavily back
13:16
game. The other angle here is Sunbelt
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Fun Belt and we've been playing some Sunbelt dogs so far this
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season and that's a good angle. Sunbelt dogs.
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When you have two teams from the Sunbelt, just take the dog.
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It's very simple, but it's three and O 8 TS this year it's one O
13:32
9 and 87 ATS 56% since 2020 with a 7% ROI.
13:38
Whole angle. There's you know, they call it
13:39
Sunbelt fun belt because there's a lot of, you know, unexpected
13:41
things that happen. It's just kind of it's almost
13:43
like matching in a way, but you have seen the dogs in the
13:47
Sunbelt really bark quite loudly.
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You also have that just conference dog handle angle that
13:52
built in familiarity, leveling the playing field, benefiting
13:55
the team getting points. Also some correlative betting
13:58
double digit low total. So this total is it's come down
14:01
a little bit. It was as high as 59.
14:02
It's down to around 57 and half 5757.
14:06
And NFL is, you know, relatively unheard of.
14:08
You don't really see totals that high.
14:09
That would be an incredibly high NFL total college.
14:12
It's not that high. And when when you're getting
14:14
close to 14 points with a total of 57, again, it's going to be a
14:18
little bit difficult for Texas State to cover that number for
14:22
expecting, you know, a sub 57 or around a 57 total.
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My last angle, here are two last things.
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I pop open my rhythm app and rhythm.
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I got 2 models. My rhythm AI model says that
14:34
this spread should be 8.6 points.
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So we're getting 13 1/2, maybe 14.
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And rhythms got an 8.6. Love that that would be a
14:42
benefit to Troy. And then my Josh model says it
14:45
should be an 11.3 point spread. So even though that's a little
14:49
bit higher, that is still an actual edge discrepancy over the
14:52
books. So basically, if we're getting
14:55
13 now 14, this should be around an 8.611 point 3 game.
14:59
Hopefully that dog can cover. Now the last angle here is do
15:02
everything you can to get a 1413. 1/2 is pretty widely
15:06
available across the market. I don't see a lot of fourteens,
15:09
but what I do see are a lot of -13 and a halfs juiced up toward
15:12
Texas State -115 So I would consider buying this up to 14.
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Again, lose by 14 key number you want to cover or at least push
15:21
instead of lose. If you want to go 13 1/2 and
15:24
save the juice, all the power to you.
15:25
You can also wait it out to 7:00 game if this public's going to
15:30
see Troy's one and four and probably continue to hammer them
15:32
Texas State in a blowout. So it might naturally get to 14.
15:36
But if you see a book that is -13 1/2 - 115 Texas State, which
15:40
means it's plus 13 1/2 - 1 O 5 Troy, you could buy it up to
15:45
plus 14 at -120 So that's what I did.
15:48
I am on Troy plus 14 at -120 next game Sam Houston State and
15:56
UTEP. Now this is not a Sunbelt fun
15:59
belt, but it is a Conference USA showdown and it's also a big
16:03
number with the road favorite. So going into this one, we have
16:06
Sam Houston four and one. UTEP is O and four.
16:10
So what does the public say? The public says I don't care
16:12
what the number is, give me Sam Houston, the four and one team
16:16
over the O and four team all day.
16:18
However, this game open Sam Houston State as a 10 1/2 point
16:22
Rd. favorite and everyone's playing Sam Houston State.
16:24
This is a 9:00 game. It will be on CBS Sports
16:28
Network. Hopefully you pay the premium
16:30
package to get that Channel as I do because I pay for all the
16:33
channels anyway. But Sam Houston State is getting
16:37
70% of spread bets, so very heavily bet 9:00 game
16:42
nationally. Not again.
16:43
I don't know if it's technically national televised.
16:45
I guess it kind of is if you get CBS Sports Network.
16:48
But anyway, heavily back Game 7 out of 10 bets Sam Houston.
16:51
But guess what? This line has stayed right where
16:54
it's at open -10 1/2 Sam Houston.
16:56
It's still 10 1/2 Sam Houston. And I'm seeing some books juiced
16:59
up looking like they're get maybe getting down to 10.
17:02
So this would be a line freeze, a line freeze when you have
17:04
heavy betting one side, but the line won't move.
17:06
What does that tell me? It tells me that even though 70%
17:09
are on Sam Houston State, they open -10 1/2.
17:12
You would think they'd go up to -11 -, 11 1/2 - 12, but no,
17:16
they've stayed right where they're at.
17:17
And I'm even seeing again now one book even officially down to
17:20
10. But some are juiced up toward
17:22
Utah. So why are the odds makers keep
17:26
the line right where it's at or even dropping it toward the
17:28
unpopular side? Well, tells me they're more
17:30
concerned about the smart money on UTEP than they are the other
17:34
way with Sam Houston State. So we had a sharp line freeze.
17:37
It's your top contrarian play of the night.
17:38
Only 30% of spread bets on UTEP. Also only 30% bets but 45%
17:44
money. So nice low bets, higher dollars
17:46
bet split. Also Conference USA dog to
17:50
Conference USA teams. We talked about the Sunbelt, but
17:53
same kind of theory applies here to team.
17:56
Same conference built in familiarity, rivalry aspect
17:59
levels the playing field benefits, A-Team getting points
18:02
by low Owen 14 versus A4 in one team.
18:04
That's just a classic buy low sell high opportunity and then
18:08
even more correlative betting value.
18:10
You know, we talked about Texas State and Troy around a 13 1/2
18:14
fourteen with a total of 57. Well, this total is only 5050 or
18:18
50 1/2 and we have a dog getting 10 1/2.
18:21
So again, lower scoring game harder.
18:23
It's going to be harder for Sam Houston to cover with a low
18:26
total. Like if this total was 6570,
18:29
again, with a 10 1/2, you'd be more inclined to play the
18:31
favorite because more points easier to cover, less points
18:34
harder to cover. But you had all up here guys.
18:37
This is AU tep play for me. Most contrarian play of the
18:40
night line freeze liability or even some RLM going toward UTEP.
18:44
I'm on UTEP get that hook at plus 10 1/2.
18:48
Now to finish up the pod. Let's see if we can win a Major
18:51
League Baseball playoff game. What do you say?
18:53
Let's go to old Milwaukee, the beer makers and the New York
18:58
Mets. Now this series has been kind of
19:00
crazy. The New York Mets look like a
19:02
team of destiny won the first game.
19:04
Then last night, kind of incredible, you had the
19:08
Milwaukee Brewers get down in that game.
19:09
It looked like they were going to get swept.
19:11
And then unbelievably, they were down.
19:14
What were they down 3 to one in the fifth?
19:17
They made it 3:00 to 2:00. And then the 8th, trailing 3 to
19:19
2, Jackson Torrio hit a Homer and Mitchell, I believe he's a
19:23
pinch hitter, hit A2 run bomb to win the game.
19:26
So now it's for all the marbles. This is the third game series is
19:30
tied 11. This is like your Game 7.
19:33
Whoever wins advances. Whoever loses goes home.
19:36
So first thing you notice about this game, let's give the
19:38
pitching match up. To start, we have Jose Quintana
19:41
going for the Mets. Jose Quintana had a decent year,
19:44
10 and 10, three .75 ERA. Tobias Myers is on the bump for
19:48
Milwaukee. He went nine and six with an ERA
19:51
of three. Now the first thing I noticed
19:54
with this game or two things I noticed 1 is that we've seen
19:59
basically Milwaukee open as a favorite and become more of a
20:02
favorite. So a lot of books open Milwaukee
20:04
around a -, 115. -120 home favorite.
20:08
Now they're up to -130 you know -135 S Lions move toward
20:12
Milwaukee. And the important thing there is
20:14
that even though it's going toward Milwaukee, public is
20:17
going with the Mets big name team, big payroll obviously had
20:21
a Goodyear had to, you know, win that game against Atlanta just
20:24
to get in. So there's a much, you know,
20:26
more much more favoritism from the betting public to play Mets
20:30
over Milwaukee. The Mets here are getting 60% of
20:34
bets, yet the line's not going to the Mets.
20:37
Like if you open Milwaukee -115 -, 120, you know, you're getting
20:41
a big majority of bets. Mets, you would think this would
20:43
get closer to a pick em, you know, would fall toward the
20:46
Mets. But no, it's gone the other way.
20:47
It's moved further toward Milwaukee.
20:49
So that tells me we got smart money going Milwaukee to win
20:52
this game in advance. Only 40% bets, but nearly 50% of
20:56
the money is on Milwaukee. It's a bit of a fade.
20:59
The trendy dog. This is 7 O 8:00 PM Eastern Time
21:01
first pitch. It's your only baseball game
21:03
tonight, so it's going to be very heavily bet and a very
21:06
heavily backed game. Same theory applies with, you
21:08
know, NFL primetime games. Heavy, heavily backed game,
21:12
nationally televised Publix all on team A.
21:15
Just by being on team B and going contrarian and betting
21:18
against the drunk guys wearing a Mets jersey is a valuable spot
21:21
to be in. So I'm going Milwaukee here
21:23
guys, shop around. I got the Milwaukee Brew Crew at
21:26
-130 couple things that I'm banking on.
21:29
One, aside from just a data-driven play here, would be
21:33
Myers, the starting pitcher here from Milwaukee.
21:36
I bet on him a couple times this year.
21:38
He's usually pretty good at home. 2.86 ERA on the road,
21:42
3.15. Also, if you look at his day
21:45
night splits, they're kind of interesting.
21:46
In the day, he has a 3.62 ERA at night, 2.65.
21:52
So he's pitched very well at home and he's pitched very well
21:54
at night, which bodes well for for Myers in Milwaukee.
21:59
It's the opposite for Jose Quintana.
22:02
Quintana 3.64 at home, 3.86 on the road, day 3.2, ERA night
22:08
4.22. So we've really seen a follow
22:12
spot or a tail spot, whatever you want to call it from
22:15
Milwaukee's Myers home and night versus a fade spot of the New
22:19
York Mets. Cantana, who has struggled on
22:21
the road and struggled at night. Also.
22:24
I wanted to double check this. I wanted to see batting average
22:29
versus lefties. Where's Milwaukee?
22:31
I guess they're middle of the pack.
22:32
They're 14th. So they're hitting 245 against
22:35
lefties. But I did want to mention this
22:37
on 928, September 28th, it was the second to last game of the
22:40
year. We had Cantana face off against
22:43
Myers. And if you guys remember, didn't
22:46
know Milwaukee won that Game 6 nothing.
22:48
Myers went 4 innings, one hit, no runs.
22:51
Cantana went 4.1 innings, five hits, two runs.
22:54
So Myers out, dueled Cantana. You're in the same spot tonight.
22:57
Obviously stakes are much higher.
22:59
But also, Milwaukee is 6 and one against the Mets head to
23:15
That is juiced up toward the under.
23:18
So if you Add all up here, guys, I know it seems like Mets, you
23:20
know, maybe better team, bigger payroll.
23:23
How do you not take them plus money?
23:25
Again, anything can happen in a Game 7.
23:27
But I'm actually kicking myself for not playing Milwaukee
23:30
yesterday. If my guy Chuck Freeman is
23:32
listening, who was the works in media for the Milwaukee Brew
23:36
Crew? He's like, what do you think?
23:38
And I was like, go Milwaukee look sharp last night where they
23:41
were kind of in the same spot. Contrarian and a line move, and
23:45
I think they're as low as like -110 up to like -130 I didn't
23:49
play them. Of course they won.
23:51
So I don't want to miss my chance here tonight.
23:52
So I'm going to go Milwaukee, hopefully make some beer and,
23:56
and I don't know, shotgun or maybe keg stand some beer and
23:59
hopefully go down the slide and get a winner here.
24:01
So I'm on the Brew Crew fade the trendy dog reverse line move.
24:04
I got Milwaukee at -130 so 5 pack tonight.
24:09
Can we get three or more and produce a winning night?
24:12
That is the goal. Atlanta Falcons -130 on the
24:15
money line, Kirk Cousins over 229 1/2 passing yards.
24:19
Troy got to get the plus 14, UTEP 10 1/2 + 10 1/2 and let's
24:24
go beer makers at -130 So that about does it for another
24:28
episode here of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast, which
24:32
is powered by rhythm. Of course.
24:34
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
24:35
start by asking a favor of you. Could you please do me a solid,
24:40
do me a favor, make me happy. Give this podcast a five star
24:43
review. If you're listening on Spotify
24:44
or iTunes, you have the option to rate and review.
24:47
Click the five stars. I very much appreciate it.
24:49
Would help us to grow the pod, gain more, gain more eyeballs,
24:52
more listens, more more follows. If you want to click the follow
24:56
button, that way you get alerted as soon as it drops, that would
24:58
be fantastic as well. Also, if you want to recommend
25:00
this pod to a friend, that would be fantastic also.
25:04
Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting, these
25:07
breakdowns, you find them enter, I'm not going to say
25:09
entertaining, but informative, hopefully insightful by looking
25:13
at the betting market from a data-driven perspective.
25:15
What's the market doing? Where's the money going?
25:17
Where's the public? Where are the sharps?
25:19
Where are the bet splits? Where the system matches flat
25:22
betting, avoiding parlays. Notice we never mentioned
25:24
parlays. There's a reason why the books
25:27
make a killing and I and the the better gets killed when it comes
25:30
to parlays. Just look at the whole
25:31
percentage. But anyway, if the style of
25:33
betting appeals to you, interests you, you want to learn
25:35
more about data-driven betting. Well, guess what?
25:37
I wrote a book on data-driven betting.
25:40
Go pick up a copy. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
25:43
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
25:45
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
25:46
How lines are set, how and why they move.
25:48
How to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
25:51
place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
25:54
how to set up a bankroll management plan.
25:56
Chapters on all the major sports, all included in the
25:59
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
26:00
So pick one up for you. Or a friend or a buddy makes a
26:04
great birthday gift stocking stuffer.
26:07
If you got that person in your life who maybe isn't in a newly
26:10
legalized state, or maybe just likes betting on sports and
26:14
doesn't have much success, and maybe you could learn a thing or
26:16
two about how to read the market or go contrarian or manage their
26:19
bankroll. We'll pick one up.
26:20
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
26:22
you. We'll post it at the book and
26:24
sweat some sharp contrarian plays together.
26:27
Almost second to last, third to last.
26:29
Have you taken advantage of the Rhythm and Juice Reel apps?
26:32
Well, I hope you have. But if not, go download the
26:35
Rhythm and Juice Reel apps. Make sure you do it by clicking
26:37
the custom links that are located in the bio description
26:40
of this podcast. But with Rhythm, I love their AI
26:44
backed models and predictions for both game bets and player
26:46
props, as well as Juice Reel doing a great job with their
26:50
Robo Jackson best bet picks that come out each day at noon.
26:52
By the way, one of Robo's 2 picks today is Troy and the
26:56
points, so I love that. And then of course, arbitrage
26:58
opportunities, Sharp mush plays actual dollar breakdowns on
27:03
games spread money line in total, which is coming from
27:06
everyone who has synced their sports books.
27:08
Rhythm and juice real help me win.
27:09
They're going to help you win. So go click those custom links
27:12
that are located in the description of the pod each day
27:14
and you'll be you'll be ready to go and hopefully make some money
27:18
with the assistance of rhythm and juice real.
27:21
So that about does it another episode here in the books, guys,
27:23
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
27:27
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
27:29
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or plain Rich
27:32
Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
27:35
Massachusetts route in the desert where the true grinders
27:38
get down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
27:40
runners where the lowest true as possible is found at the South
27:42
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
27:44
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when he cashed a
27:46
big ticket at Circa. You're going to walk up to me
27:49
and you're not going to show me. Padres under the Orioles.
27:52
RIP those, RIP those up and recycle them.
27:55
Hopefully you'll show me some winners here from our five pack
27:57
tonight. And guess what?
27:59
First one's on me, next one's on you.
28:00
We'll sweat some sharp contrarian plays at the book
28:02
together. So how about those, everybody?
28:05
As always, some parting words. Stay sharp, stay contrarian.
28:08
Bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
28:10
the house. Always be with the smart money,
28:12
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
28:15
No. Give you a perfect example.
28:16
Smart money was pods. Under smart money was Orioles.
28:19
They both lost. That's betting it's going to
28:21
happen. But here's the thing, anything
28:23
can happen in a one off. You can have a good night, a
28:25
great night, you could have a great win, exhilarating win or a
28:29
back Breaking Bad beat. That's betting.
28:31
That's the the randomness of betting sometimes.
28:33
But we are always looking at betting in a long term
28:36
perspective forced amongst the trees.
28:38
Marathon, not a Sprint. If we can stay true to our
28:41
model, which is basically a bet with your head and not your
28:44
heart, against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
28:47
bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
28:50
If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
28:52
sports betters. So have a fantastic Thirsty
28:55
Thursday, everybody. This one's going to be tough for
28:57
me because I got all these sweats tonight and tonight is
28:59
the first game of the fall beer league softball league that I'm
29:04
in. So we get our new jerseys
29:05
tonight, which is nice, but it's going to be tough for me when
29:09
I'm playing beer league softball and not knowing the score of all
29:12
these games. So wish me luck.
29:14
I think hopefully if we win, we're going to go out for beers
29:17
and wings tonight in Somerville, which I'm looking forward to.
29:21
I'll be the way guys, have a great Thirsty Thursday.
29:23
We'll be back at it tomorrow for a big Friday.
29:26
Episode 134 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
29:30
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, Have a
29:33
great Thursday night.