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Tony Abbott is back, but what does it mean for the Liberal Party? · The Morning Edition

0:03
S1: Tony Abbott is one of our most divisive former prime ministers.
0:08
S1: His pugilistic tone and fight to turn back illegal boats
0:12
S1: made many feel safer. Others cheered when he appointed himself
0:17
S1: the Minister for women and cheered when he was turfed
0:20
S1: by his own party during his first term as prime minister.
0:24
S1: And now, after Tony Abbott's last public defeat seven years ago,
0:28
S1: he's back. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and you're listening to
0:32
S1: Morning Edition from The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. Today,
0:36
S1: chief political commentator James Massola on whether Tony Abbott, as
0:40
S1: the new president of the Liberal Party, can save the
0:43
S1: party from extinction. And if what Abbott really wants is
0:46
S1: to become opposition leader. James welcome back.
0:52
S2: Good day Sam. Good to be with you.
0:53
S1: Okay. I can't wait to speak to you about this
0:56
S1: because you've just written about Tony Abbott's election as president
0:59
S1: of the Liberal Party, as being like something of a
1:01
S1: knife edge situation, right? In terms of whether Australians will
1:04
S1: see him in a great light or perhaps a disastrous one.
1:08
S1: You've described his selection as a Rorschach test in this way.
1:11
S1: So walk us through this. What did you mean by that?
1:14
S2: Most Australians, whether they love him or hate him, have
1:17
S2: a pretty strong opinion on Tony Abbott and his period
1:21
S2: as opposition leader than his shorter period as PM. He
1:24
S2: was far from universally popular. I think it's safe to say,
1:28
S2: you know, the sort of left of politics, Sam. Plenty
1:30
S2: of people on the left hated him. But for the
1:32
S2: coalition for conservative types, he was kind of a standard
1:36
S2: bearer and still is to this day. What happened last
1:39
S2: Friday in terms of the election of Tony Abbott to
1:43
S2: the presidency of the Liberal Party, is quite a big deal. Now.
1:47
S2: It's not a it's not a role that necessarily, you know,
1:50
S2: kind of signs off on detailed policy and what have you.
1:53
S2: But it is a role that sets the tone, helps
1:56
S2: set the agenda, helps set the focus for the coalition
1:59
S2: for the Liberal Party. You know, in the next couple
2:01
S2: of years ahead. And, you know, what did I mean
2:04
S2: by it being a Rorschach test? Well, I mean, this
2:06
S2: is what we're about to find out. Does Mr. Abbott's
2:09
S2: return to the presidency? Does that sort of presage a
2:12
S2: return of the strength and support for the coalition parties,
2:18
S2: or does it kind of remind people like, hang on,
2:21
S2: there's that guy who was prime minister 11 years ago
2:23
S2: who was a bit crazy, and I didn't like him
2:25
S2: much by the end there. And why is he back now?
2:28
S2: Do you know what I mean? Like, it's. Yes, the
2:30
S2: Liberal Party's thrown a huge chunk of red meat on
2:32
S2: the table, and they've sort of asked people to say, um,
2:36
S2: you know, do you like steak or not? Make up
2:39
S2: your mind because we've got a really big piece of
2:41
S2: red meat on the table, as it were.
2:43
S1: That's right. I mean, as you mentioned in your column,
2:45
S1: like this is the dude, you didn't use the word dude,
2:47
S1: but this is the guy that, you know, he made
2:49
S1: that decision tonight, Prince Philip, you know, that was obviously
2:52
S1: mocked very widely. You know, we know him for eating
2:55
S1: onions and budgie smugglers and obviously more importantly, lost his
3:00
S1: own seat in 2019 to teals candidate Zali Steggall. Right.
3:04
S1: So defeat.
3:06
S2: Him? No, indeed. And look, do we think did the
3:11
S2: Australian people get it wrong? Do we think that Australians
3:13
S2: get it wrong when they make decisions at the ballot
3:15
S2: box on Election Day? I generally think no. I think,
3:18
S2: you know, if you look back over the last at
3:21
S2: least 7 or 8 prime ministers probably going way back,
3:24
S2: like who was the one which was the election that
3:28
S2: they that you could sort of say that the Australian
3:30
S2: people got it wrong. Like, did Peter Dutton really deserve
3:33
S2: to beat Anthony Albanese in 2025? No. Probably not. You know,
3:36
S2: did Scott Morrison deserve to beat Bill shorten? Yeah, he
3:39
S2: probably did. You know, did Tony Abbott deserve to win
3:42
S2: in a landslide in 2013? Yep he did. Labor had
3:45
S2: been a bad government. And you know did Kevin Rudd
3:47
S2: in oh seven. Did he deserve to win. Yeah. You
3:49
S2: know John Howard's time was up. People generally get it right.
3:53
S2: I think that's my starting point in Australian politics. So
3:56
S2: they booted him out in 2019. He lost the seat
3:59
S2: of Warringah to Zali Steggall, as you say. Why go back?
4:03
S2: That's the bit I'm kind of puzzling over. But then, conversely, Sam,
4:06
S2: you know, the Liberal Party's at the lowest ebb, probably
4:09
S2: in its history. So doesn't it need people like Tony
4:11
S2: Abbott pulling all in the same direction, trying to restore
4:14
S2: the party's fortunes?
4:16
S1: Okay, well, we're going to get into that. But first
4:17
S1: I have to ask you about one of the great
4:19
S1: controversies that I think is surrounding this very new appointment,
4:23
S1: which is the rumours that we keep hearing that, you know,
4:26
S1: perhaps this is tailored just absolutely making a fatal mistake,
4:30
S1: signing his eviction notice, as it were, because Tony Abbott,
4:32
S1: even in his three days at the time of recording
4:35
S1: in this new job of his, he sort of makes
4:37
S1: for a more convincing opposition leader than Angus Taylor does.
4:42
S1: So what are you hearing in Parliament House? Like, are
4:44
S1: people whispering in the corridors that, oh my God, Abbott's
4:48
S1: just here to take over from Angus Taylor. Like, what
4:50
S1: are you hearing? Tell us. Tell us the inside scoop, James.
4:52
S2: There's a couple of steps to clear before a couple
4:55
S2: of hurdles to clear before it becomes opposition leader again.
4:57
S2: But I mean yeah. So again, go back a couple
5:00
S2: of days. I spoke to Mr. Abbott on Friday, uh,
5:03
S2: after he, you know, rose to the was elected president. Um,
5:07
S2: I'm sure a heap of other journalists did as well.
5:09
S2: And he was turning down media requests. He did a
5:11
S2: five minute speech, uh, after the election. Then he sort
5:15
S2: of didn't do anything else. And he said to me,
5:17
S2: and I don't think I'm, you know, speaking out of school,
5:19
S2: he said, I don't want to distract from Angus's message.
5:22
S2: You know, Angus is the leader now, not me. That's fine.
5:25
S2: But three days later, I mean, today he's done. Was
5:27
S2: it Channel Nine's today show, ABC Radio National Breakfast? He
5:31
S2: was just on Sky a little while ago. There's a
5:34
S2: fundraising email that's been sent out in his name by
5:36
S2: the Liberal Party headquarters. He's everywhere. And look again, that's
5:41
S2: fine if you think that's a winning strategy, but it
5:43
S2: does ask questions or suggest questions like, you know, is
5:47
S2: the depth on the Liberal Party's actual frontbench so thin
5:51
S2: that they need to sort of roll out a former
5:53
S2: prime minister? And secondly, yes, to your point and to
5:56
S2: the point I made in the column, he hasn't lost
5:59
S2: a lot. It's been, you know, close to 16 years
6:02
S2: since Mr. Abbott first became opposition leader. He was a
6:05
S2: devastatingly good opposition leader. He, you know, whatever you think
6:08
S2: of his policies. And plenty of people didn't like him.
6:10
S2: In the end, he was able to cut through with
6:12
S2: those three word slogans in a way that I've never
6:14
S2: seen an opposition leader manage since. And he hasn't lost
6:18
S2: a yard. He's still able to do that. He sounds
6:21
S2: more polished than Angus Taylor, who's been in this job
6:24
S2: for three, three and a half months and is still
6:26
S2: finding his feet. So there's a danger there for the
6:28
S2: Liberal Party, too. What are people saying in the corridors
6:31
S2: of Parliament House? Really depends who you talk to amongst
6:34
S2: Liberal MPs. But some of them are terrified and they
6:37
S2: tend to be the kind of MPs at the moderate
6:40
S2: end of the spectrum who think, I really want to
6:43
S2: go back to a prime minister. You know, having, you know,
6:47
S2: a former prime minister in such a forward facing role.
6:51
S2: And do we really want to remind people about his
6:53
S2: time in power? And do we really want, you know,
6:56
S2: Angus and Tony to be bracketed together in people's minds.
7:00
S2: And most of all, they're worried about the destruction of,
7:03
S2: you know, let's say, Abbott doing a series of media interviews, which,
7:07
S2: lo and behold, he's done this morning and taking away
7:10
S2: from Angus Taylor's message rather than amplifying it.
7:13
S1: Okay. So tell us, I guess, brass tacks like, what
7:15
S1: is Tony Abbott saying that he wants to actually accomplish
7:18
S1: as party president? You know, you said there right at
7:20
S1: the top that, you know, the party president sets the
7:22
S1: tone and perhaps the future direction of the party. So
7:25
S1: what's he told us so far?
7:27
S2: Look, the email this morning was essentially, I'm here to
7:30
S2: help Angus Taylor remove Labor's toxic taxes. I'm here to
7:35
S2: help fundraise for the Liberal Party. I'm here to kind
7:38
S2: of distil the message and reconnect with the party's base.
7:42
S2: I mean, look, reading between the lines, Sam, in part
7:46
S2: the reason he's there is to reconnect with One Nation
7:49
S2: voters who were liberal voters and who have deserted the
7:51
S2: Liberal Party because they've been so disappointed in the the
7:55
S2: sort of circus of the last, well, at least 18 months,
7:58
S2: I guess I'd say.
7:59
S1: Well, let's talk about how much further to the right this.
8:02
S1: This could mean that the party goes. Because we do
8:05
S1: know that Tony Abbott, in one of his statements since
8:07
S1: he's been elected as president, he said, you know, henceforth
8:10
S1: as liberals, we will stand proudly under our one national flag.
8:14
S1: We'll change the law to stop safe spaces being invaded
8:17
S1: by men who say they are women, and so forth
8:19
S1: and so forth. So he's flagging that he's really going
8:21
S1: to punch hard on these culture wars issues, right? So,
8:24
S1: I mean, yeah, what do you think of this, I
8:26
S1: guess portends for the Liberal Party? Like how far right.
8:29
S1: You know. Yeah. How far right are they going to go,
8:32
S1: I guess?
8:32
S2: Look, I don't know the exact answer for that, but
8:34
S2: I'd put a question back to you, Sam. And that's this.
8:38
S2: You're absolutely right that he's determined to come out swinging
8:42
S2: on these so-called culture war issues. I don't think that. Well,
8:48
S2: I think a lot of Australians would agree with him
8:49
S2: on this issue or that issue. But what I don't
8:52
S2: think is that people you know, the average Aussie is
8:55
S2: waking up every day and thinking, oh, you know, those,
8:59
S2: those gender fluid bathrooms or those, you know, unisex bathrooms
9:03
S2: or men getting access or, you know, men who've become
9:05
S2: women getting access to female baths. I don't think people
9:08
S2: are waking up thinking this is the number one issue
9:11
S2: that needs to be tackled in Australia today. They're probably
9:13
S2: thinking it's cold, it's winter, I've got a mortgage to pay.
9:18
S2: Everything costs more and I'm fed up with it. You know,
9:21
S2: I just think that they're not waking up itching to
9:24
S2: fight a culture war.
9:26
S1: Definitely not. I mean, we know that from polling. It's
9:28
S1: not even just you thinking it, isn't it? I mean,
9:30
S1: we know from polling over God knows how long a
9:32
S1: period now that, you know, people are well, they're obviously
9:35
S1: in a housing crisis. We've got a cost of living problems.
9:38
S2: So every time we do a poll and that's once
9:42
S2: a month, we're working towards the next one soon. When
9:45
S2: you ask voters to nominate their number one issue, it's
9:49
S2: like as far back as the eye can see, it's
9:53
S2: cost of living around 4,045% as people's number one issue.
9:58
S2: Within that, specifically housing is 10%. And then all of
10:04
S2: the other issues defense, education, health, workplace relations, they're all
10:09
S2: somewhere between sort of one and about 8% cost of
10:13
S2: living is, is, is at least four times more important
10:15
S2: to everyone than any other single issue. And it hasn't moved.
10:20
S2: The dial has not moved for years.
10:26
S1: After the break.
10:28
S2: I wouldn't be surprised if there was some small part
10:30
S2: of him that wants to be in the federal Parliament again,
10:34
S2: and then once he's in the Federal Parliament, I don't
10:36
S2: see how he could resist if the opportunity were to
10:40
S2: arise being opposition leader.
10:51
S1: So is this move going to I mean, I know
10:53
S1: I'm asking you to look into your crystal ball that
10:55
S1: I see you have right next to you there, James
10:57
S1: Massola but is this going to just move the party
10:59
S1: even further towards extinction than it already is? Because we
11:02
S1: know that just on Friday, Tony Abbott had said the
11:04
S1: party was in an existential crisis. He's obviously not going
11:07
S1: to get many people disagreeing with him on that count.
11:09
S1: He said the party needs to position itself as the, quote,
11:12
S1: Patriot Party, unquote. The Liberals are the, quote, Freedom Party.
11:16
S1: So to me, I hear shades of Clive Palmer's trumpet
11:19
S1: of patriots there, which in itself just seemed to be
11:22
S1: aping Donald Trump. I don't know. Are you seeing nail
11:24
S1: in a coffin time or no.
11:26
S2: No, I'd say the opposite, Sam. What I'm saying and
11:28
S2: why I think they've made this move is. And sorry,
11:30
S2: I'm not saying that they're about to rock it back
11:32
S2: up to 52% primary vote or anything. What this is
11:36
S2: about is shoring up the Liberal Party's base. That's why
11:39
S2: they've brought Tony Abbott into, I think, into a more
11:42
S2: frontline role. Now he's already very close to Angus Taylor.
11:45
S2: He's been a mentor to Angus Taylor for years. He.
11:49
S2: Angus was elected and entered Parliament in the year that
11:51
S2: Abbott won his landslide victory in 2013. What this is
11:55
S2: about is putting a floor under things. Now the coalition's
11:58
S2: been polling sort of 23, 24%, like their record breaking
12:04
S2: low primary vote figures. This is about stopping it going
12:08
S2: any further, essentially, and winning back some of those people
12:13
S2: who've defected to One Nation, you know, not forgetting that
12:15
S2: One Nation is actually ahead of the coalition in the polls. 24, 25% thereabouts.
12:20
S2: It's about bringing some of those people back. And Abbott
12:22
S2: is as much as said that himself. Beyond that. Like,
12:25
S2: does the return of Abbott get the coalition up to
12:28
S2: a primary vote in the 40s, which or high 30s
12:31
S2: which they need to actually win an election? I'm not
12:33
S2: as sure that it does that, but it does draw
12:35
S2: a line under things, I think.
12:37
S1: But do you reckon that's a massive political gamble. You know,
12:39
S1: trying to out Hanson, Pauline Hanson, as it were. Obviously,
12:43
S1: the Albanese government has already taken this line that, you know,
12:46
S1: it's mocking Tony Abbott's election as you know, saying the
12:49
S1: former prime minister was out of touch with mainstream Australia,
12:51
S1: which is, I think, what you're suggesting there as well,
12:53
S1: with the fact that arguably, Australians are not interested in
12:56
S1: these culture war issues. It's not something that's keeping them
12:59
S1: up at night. Whereas, you know, the mortgage payments and
13:01
S1: buying food, of course, is. So yeah. James Mazzola, is
13:06
S1: this a massive gamble?
13:08
S2: It's um. No, I think it's a medium sized gamble.
13:12
S2: I think it works to get the coalition up to
13:15
S2: a respectable. Maybe I'm not. In fact, I'm not even
13:17
S2: sure if that's respectable, but a respectable 25, 28, 29%
13:22
S2: of the primary vote. I don't think this you know,
13:25
S2: the sort of return of Tony Abbott to the main
13:28
S2: political stage in Australian life. I don't think that's an
13:32
S2: election winning strategy, but I don't think that that's despite
13:35
S2: what the coalition MPs will tell you. Oh, no, we
13:37
S2: can definitely win the next one. I don't think anyone
13:39
S2: seriously believes that just because of the sheer number of
13:42
S2: seats that Albanese won at the last election, sort of.
13:45
S2: I think they have a two term strategy, and winning
13:48
S2: back 10 or 15 seats at the next election is
13:51
S2: step one, and that's what I think. They are hoping
13:54
S2: that the return of Tony Abbott is going to sort
13:56
S2: of drive, if you like, Sam.
13:58
S1: Now you've interviewed our former prime minister, Tony Abbott, of course,
14:01
S1: as you mentioned before. So I'm just curious, did you
14:03
S1: get a sense from him? Does he really think he
14:05
S1: is the saviour here, or is this perhaps a stab
14:08
S1: at remaining relevant? I mean, like you say, he hasn't
14:11
S1: been in Parliament for a while. Had a bit of
14:13
S1: a humiliating defeat. You know, he likes the limelight.
14:17
S2: Like all politicians, he definitely likes the limelight. Look, um
14:20
S2: he he's he's not been on the main stage, as
14:25
S2: I said a moment ago, Sam, but he's never really
14:28
S2: stepped back from involvement in politics in a way that
14:32
S2: sort of are the opposite of Julia Gillard. But I'm
14:36
S2: thinking more of sort of, um, Malcolm Turnbull. Scott Morrison. Yeah.
14:40
S2: These guys talk about domestic politics. Sometimes they talk about
14:44
S2: international politics, sometimes they pick their moments a bit more. Um,
14:49
S2: I wouldn't have said that. Tony Abbott's sort of out
14:51
S2: there doing a lot more media, but he has always
14:54
S2: done a bit more media than the other two. and
14:56
S2: he's never really stepped back. It's my understanding is from
15:00
S2: involvement in the institutional wing of the party, particularly in
15:03
S2: New South Wales, his home state, where, you know, he's
15:06
S2: he's over the years made very clear his views on,
15:09
S2: you know, I want this person pre-selected, not that person pre-selected.
15:12
S2: He writes endorsement letters. He does those sorts of nuts
15:15
S2: and bolts things. That's never really stopped. This is just
15:18
S2: an elevation, I guess, from behind the scenes to a
15:22
S2: more front facing role again.
15:24
S1: Okay, well, just to wrap up, James, I guess I
15:26
S1: want to ask you, given the insight you may have,
15:28
S1: you've obviously reported on politics for a very long time.
15:31
S1: You know, Tony Abbott, does he want to be opposition
15:34
S1: leader again?
15:34
S2: Look, I honestly don't know, Sam, but I wouldn't be
15:37
S2: surprised if there was some small part of him that
15:41
S2: wants to be in the federal Parliament again. And then
15:44
S2: once he's in the federal Parliament, I don't see how
15:47
S2: he could resist if the opportunity were to arise. Being
15:51
S2: opposition leader, he's still a relatively young man. He's still
15:55
S2: Fit active, um, you know, firing on all cylinders. So
15:59
S2: it seems. And he has unfinished business. You know, he
16:03
S2: had two years, well, just less than two years as
16:05
S2: prime minister. I don't know that he's ever gotten over
16:08
S2: losing the job in the fashion that he did. You know,
16:10
S2: the party room push. I don't know if anyone ever does.
16:13
S2: I don't think Kevin Rudd did either. Really. So if
16:15
S2: the opportunity came up, maybe. I mean, there's always there's
16:20
S2: regularly there's chatter about him returning to Parliament, you know,
16:22
S2: as recently as the by election. I don't think that
16:26
S2: that starts from nowhere. You know, those rumours that chatter
16:29
S2: those those discussions. I don't think it I don't think
16:31
S2: they exist in a vacuum. They have they are actually happening.
16:33
S2: So in the right set of circumstances. Sam. Yeah. I
16:37
S2: could see him coming back.
16:38
S1: And that unfinished business you mentioned is that just not
16:41
S1: having the ability to actually serve the full term as
16:43
S1: prime minister, or is it particular issues that do you
16:46
S1: reckon he feels he's got unfinished business that he wasn't
16:48
S1: able to accomplish?
16:49
S2: Oh, I think it's both. He definitely has policies that
16:52
S2: he wanted to implement that weren't, you know, that he
16:56
S2: just didn't have the time to implement or that, you know,
16:59
S2: faced a backlash, got held up by the parliament, got
17:02
S2: junked by his successor, you know, Malcolm Turnbull? Yeah, I
17:05
S2: think so. I think there's specific policies, you know, that
17:08
S2: would help shape the direction.
17:10
S1: Which ones.
17:11
S2: Some of the issues that Tony Abbott, I think would
17:14
S2: be motivated to pursue were he to return to politics
17:17
S2: in a federal parliamentary role, would include tackling migration or,
17:22
S2: you know, reducing Australia's immigration rate. He calls it mass migration,
17:25
S2: much like Angus Taylor does. I think we'd see more
17:29
S2: culture wars as well, to be frank. You know, something
17:31
S2: Angus Taylor has already promised is to re legislate the
17:35
S2: definition of what a man and a woman is. You know,
17:38
S2: the definition was changed in 2013. Some people are not
17:41
S2: very comfortable with the definition of a trans woman being
17:45
S2: a woman or a trans man being a man. I
17:47
S2: think we'd see stuff like that being pursued. I mean,
17:49
S2: Taylor has said that I think Abbott would do the same.
17:52
S2: I think potentially, I expect he would try to try
17:55
S2: and reduce Australia's debt. I think he'd be more careful
17:58
S2: than he did at careful than the way he did
18:00
S2: it in 2014, when his budget basically well, eventually helped
18:04
S2: cost him his prime ministership because the cuts were so
18:07
S2: swingeing that he and Joe Hockey had proposed.
18:10
S1: And specifically he'd made all those cuts. I think it
18:12
S1: was what it was health care. And it was all
18:13
S1: kinds of really primary stuff.
18:15
S2: Health, education, ABC, SBS welfare.
18:19
S1: That they had promised not to cut. Right? Yeah.
18:21
S2: Exactly. Yeah. I don't think he'd break his promises in
18:24
S2: the same fashion again, but I think he would have
18:27
S2: surely learnt that lesson. But I mean, I don't think
18:30
S2: the leopard changes its spots. Right, Sam? Yeah.
18:39
S1: Thanks, James.
18:40
S2: No worries Sam.
18:41
S3: Thank you.
18:54
S1: In other news today, the AI jobs apocalypse is yet
18:58
S1: to fully hit Australia's job market, but new research shows
19:01
S1: hiring has been weaker in occupations such as clerks and telemarketers.
19:06
S1: The Prime Minister is weighing up a trip to the
19:08
S1: US to meet President Donald Trump at the Socceroos match
19:11
S1: against the USA at the World Cup, and Chinese billionaire
19:15
S1: John Li no longer owns Australia's most expensive home, with
19:20
S1: a New South Wales court revoking the gold mining businessman's
19:23
S1: hold on a $95 million property on Sydney Harbour. You
19:28
S1: can read more at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode
19:36
S1: was produced by Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills,
19:40
S1: and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick.
19:45
S1: If you like our show, follow the Morning Edition and
19:47
S1: leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks
19:51
S1: for listening.