Latest / Clear Path Christianity / The Difference Between Confidence and Certainty || CPC Podcast Ep. 27
Transcript
- Cole Crone: Mustache look okay. Mm-hmm. Prominent. Yeah, just yeah, just a PG tips is fine with a a spoonful of sugar. Not the most delicious way. Yeah, I've never seen that movie, so I wouldn't know. No. Yeah, is that what I said? Yeah, I've never seen Mary Poppins. Yeah, I've never seen Mary Poppins. Do I need to see it? That's arrest development. I know that. The time we're the time we're recording this, we have been back in town from our vacation. For five days and I've gotta be honest, the depression hasn't worn off. The post vacay depression has not has not worn off. I want a tea and a scone in the morning. Skon or a lovely mocha. With a breckey. I know you prefer lattes, yeah. No. You say you prefer lattes and then you it you probably are just getting to drink yours. by the time I've finished mine because I don't order something that has to be forged in the fires of Mount Doom. So yeah, but it's always it's always one of those things like you c you can't ever just take the lid off for fifteen or twenty minutes so that it becomes drinkable. Yeah. yeah. Well I I mean can you steep it for five minutes? And then do the milk? Yeah, well yeah, take the tea bag out and then put a splash of milk in there, yeah. You got it? Cheers, mate, thanks. I do love a I do love a cup of tea in the evenings. Yeah. I like to think can I be honest, I like to think of myself as a man of the renaissance of the renaissance. Yeah. I think that's why I gravitate I've caught I've talked about this before on another podcast. But I I I think I resonate with Indy because he's he's very much a man of the Renaissance where you know, he carries around a gun and is comfortable in a bar fight, but he also has a PhD and is a tenured professor. You know? He's as comfortable at a black tie event as he is spelunking for treasures, you know? I think that's I think I s I think I wanna see myself as that guy. Yeah, best of all worlds, one could argue. Yeah. Yeah. How's that tea coming along? Cheers, mate. That that's a ooh, cup is hot. Thank you. So as I reflect on my time growing up in a cult, in in in hindsight, there was never a time when I walked around in my day-to-day life thinking, you know, I'm I'm probably being deceived. In fact, it wasn't until like the last couple of years of my time within my particular religious organization that I then Begin to contemplate or entertain the possibility that I was living a lie or that I had been deceived or that I was a part of this elaborate farce. I I in fact, most of my life I was pretty convinced of the truth claims of my religious group. I felt as though I had good reasons. I felt as though I had a good understanding of the the the scriptural basis of my particular brand of Christianity. I was surrounded by people who consistently reinforced my particular religious beliefs. I I had a a worldview through which contrary evidence could simply be explained away. Now of course eventually I had to learn that being certain that I'm right and actually being right are two different things. And so my point my point in saying that is that intelligent and sincere people can possess enormous subjective certainty about false beliefs. And therefore, certainty itself cannot establish truth. And so In this episode, I wanna talk about the difference between confidence on the one hand and certainty on the other. Okay, so the first thing we need to do is define our terms. because confidence and certainty are not the same thing. Okay, so for the the purposes of this episode, and for our purposes in this discussion, I'm using the term certainty to mean believing that there is essentially no possibility that I am wrong. Confidence, on the other hand, means that I have sufficient reasons to believe that something is true. And the strength of my beliefs corresponds to the strength of those reasons. Okay. So I believe in a truth proposition, and my belief in that truth proposition is directly correlated to the strength of my reasons for believing that truth proposition. So that's what I mean by confidence. Now, of course, confidence itself comes in degrees. You can be mildly confident. You can be reasonably confident, you can be highly confident, you can be extraordinarily confident even, without claiming absolute certainty. So, in other words, I can say that I am I'm extraordinarily confident of the truthfulness of a particular claim without saying that. There is essentially no possibility that I'm wrong about said claim. that that tension is where the vast majority of us operate in virtually every other area of our life. Right? So this is not something that is exclusive to religious truth claims. Every one of us already lives without certainty. And I can prove that most of us live without certainty by doing a few thought experiments. For example, were you certain that your car would start this morning? The the the answer, if you understand certainty, is likely no. None of us can be absolutely certain that our car is going to start in the morning. Yet, every one of us is going to get up in the morning, go to our cars, and attempt to start them. when w when you went to bed last night, were you certain that your house wouldn't collapse on you and kill you and your family while you slept? Now, again, the answer is likely no. None of us can be absolutely certain that our house is not going to collapse on us while we sleep tonight. Yet you still go and sleep in your house. here's a silly one. But are you are you absolutely certain that your spouse isn't an undercover spy working for North Korea? again, y hopefully you would say, Yeah, I'm I'm pretty certain that my wife is or my husband is not an undercover spy working for whatever the the current dictator what's his name? Is it or Yang Kim Jong il? No, he died. Is it Kim Jong un? It's ki what's one of them. Anyway, you're probably pretty certain that's not the case, right? And and why? Right? You you can't you can't actually be certain that's not true. But we're but you're operating as if it isn't. And the and and why is that? Because we do not require certainty. We more often only require sufficient warrant for confidence. And this this is an important. Point to make, particularly for for this conversation, because skeptics of Christianity and religion in general will often impose a standard on religious beliefs that they do not impose anywhere else. In other words, a skeptic will say, unless you can prove Christianity with absolute certainty, your belief isn't justified. And as I've just as I've just proven with just a few basic th thought experiments, that is an entirely unreasonable epistemic standard, as almost nothing we believe about history or science or other minds or relationships or many other aspects of our everyday lives. rests our our trust or belief in those things, none of those things rests on absolute Cartesian certainty or that or that one hundred percent certainty. So the important point here is that the opposite of certainty is not irrationality, as the skeptic often poses. There is an enormous amount of space between these two statements. On the one hand, I cannot possibly be wrong, that's certainty, and I have no reason to believe this. Right. There's there's a huge amount of middle ground between those two positions. And this space is where most of our rational beliefs must live. Okay, so moving forward, I want us to consider the potential dangers of confusing confidence with certainty. Because on the on the flip side of this equation is another danger, right? We don't want to find ourselves at the point where we can't hold any beliefs to be reasonable unless we do so through absolute certainty. So we don't want to confuse these two things. and in in high control religious environments, these these types of groups typically reward those who appear certain. Because questions are often construed as signs of spiritual weakness or as rebellion or as a lack of faith or as Pride or some kind of demonic influence or so on and so forth, right? This was my experience growing up. if if I was ever brave enough to question the beliefs that I had been taught, then one of these things was proposed as as the reason why I was feeling the particular way. Now, meanwhile At the same time, high control religious groups place confidence in the group's claims as continuously being reinforced, such that this your posture towards those beliefs moves from I believe this is true, to I know this is true, and then eventually anyone who disagrees either. Doesn't understand, is deceived, or is being dishonest. Right? And so that that dangerous continuum is is one of the things that we have to look out for, even those of us who hold religious beliefs. Once your worldview contains mechanisms for dismissing every possible counterargument. You've made your beliefs practically unfalsifiable. And so Even within those of us who have religious beliefs, deep religious convictions, we want to make sure that we aren't we aren't overestimating or over-understanding our certainty, because that actually just plays into the hand of the skeptics. Okay, so at at this point it is important that I dis that I clearly state what I'm not saying. Because it is true that Christianity does make truth claims. Okay. And I'm I'm not saying that nobody really knows anything. Okay. I'm actually saying the opposite of that. I'm I'm I'm wanting to affirm that there is a such thing as an objective truth. In fact, Christianity makes actual truth claims about reality. For example, just speaking of the person of Jesus Christ, Jesus of Nazareth either existed or he didn't exist. He either died or he didn't die. He either rose from the dead or he didn't. And so we see this even in Scripture itself. The Apostle Paul in 1 Corinthians 15, verses 14 through 17, says this. And if Christ is not risen, then our preaching is empty, and your faith is also empty. Yes, and we are found false witnesses of God, because we have testified that we have testified of God that He raised up Christ, whom He did not whom He did not raise up, if in fact He did not rise. For if the dead do not rise, then Christ is not risen, and if Christ is not risen, your faith is futile and you are still in your sins. So for Paul, if Christ has not been raised, Christianity isn't simply true for me or true for you, it is false. That that is that's that's what that's what Paul is saying. In in in other words, intellectual humility. doesn't mean maybe everything is equally valid, That's not actual intellectual humility, right? Just pure relativism isn't actual isn't actually intellectual humility. what it means is that truth exists independently of whether I understand it correctly, right? That's what I'm saying. I'm saying that there is an objective truth and it exists independent of my ability to actually ascertain what that truth is. This is a crucial distinction that we have to make. So this next piece I've I've talked about this in previous episodes, but it bears repeating here. Not every belief within Christianity demands the same amount of confidence as others. In other words, some Christian beliefs deserve more confidence than others. Again, because our confidence is predicated on the amount of evidence that we have, right? Because we can't have absolute Cartesian certainty. All we can do is look at the evidence and and base our beliefs upon that evidence. So some things that we can have very high confidence in. Speaking within Christianity itself. we can have very high confidence that God exists. We can have very high confidence that Jesus existed, that he was an historical person, We can believe and have a very high amount of confidence that he was crucified. We can have a good amount of confidence that he rose from the dead and that he is Lord and that salvation is through him and him only, right? Now, from that same epistemic foundation, right? From that same source of knowledge, i.e., the scriptures and church tradition and all the other things that we can from which we can get true knowledge. We we can have we will oftentimes have less confidence or we should have less confidence in these issues, in baptism, the the the mode of baptism and who should be baptized. And these are these are things that different Christians throughout different periods of time have disagreed on. Some other ones. The millennium. How many different views is there of the millennium, right? All from the same epistemic foundation. different views on spiritual gifts, different views on church government, the details concerning the balance between divine providence and human freedom, right? These are things that you can really only have a moderate amount of confidence about. And then there are obviously things that we should have very low confidence in our particular view of. Again. Within Christianity. who are what are the Nephilim? what is Paul's thorn in the flesh? Who wrote the book of Hebrews, right? These are these are things that, again, from the same source, we can only have a certain amount of confidence because there isn't as much evidence as there is for the things that we can have a higher degree of confidence in. In other words, if I am equally certain on the one hand that the resurrection took place as I am in my interpretation of the millennium, something has probably gone wrong. Right, you ha you have probably confused the difference between confidence and certainty. So it is I think crucial to point out the a reality of these types of conversations, and that is that conviction and humility are not enemies. I I think oftentimes people assume that only two possibilities exist when Presented with evidence. You either know you are right. Typically that is labeled as dogmatism or being dogmatic. And on the other hand, you just go, well, who knows, right? Everyone has their truth, right? That that being the relativism. So sometimes we frame these things as if those are the only two options. However, I think Christianity conveniently gives us a third option, which is conviction with humility. Meaning that a Christian can say, I believe that Christianity is true. I believe that Jesus rose bodily from the dead. I believe the scriptures are the word of God, right? We can make all those statements while simultaneously saying, I'm I'm certainly capable of misunderstanding things. And and those don't have to be a contradiction. Those two truths don't have to be a contradiction. Why? Well, because God's revelation for the Christian is infallible, but I'm not. The problem isn't with God or with his revelation. The problem is with us and with our brokenness and with our baggage, right? And with and with our clouded minds and Things of that nature. So my confidence is ultimately in, the truth God has revealed and not in my own ability to understand everything perfectly. Okay, so then practically speaking, how do I decide exactly how confident to be How confident is the appropriate amount of confidence, Again, accepting the fact that absolute certainty is a poor epistemological standard. It is a poor method by which we can claim to have knowledge, right? Absolute certainty isn't going to happen. But a high degree of confidence is possible. And how do we know how confident to be? And I'll suggest four questions for determining how confident to be about a particular issue or piece of evidence. Well, one, how strong is the evidence? Right. This is a great question to start with. How strong is the evidence? Right. So so in other words, I'm asking what actually supports this belief? Okay. for example, if you believe a particular view, again, we talked about baptism. how much evidence actually is there and how strong is that evidence that your particular view of baptism is the correct one? And have you examined evidence that perhaps doesn't so nicely support your particular view? because number two asks that very question. Are there plausible alternatives, And have I seriously considered those plausible alternatives, is there evidence and how strong is that evidence, and is there counter evidence and how strong is that counter evidence? And have I actually taken the time to understand both, Not just what I want. To find. And then a really important question that we have to be asking ourselves is what would change my mind? if if you hold a particular position on an issue related to I don't know, religion and spirituality in general, or Christianity more specifically, what evidence would there have to be for you to change your mind? Number four, am I more confident than the evidence warrants? Now, this is especially true with secondary and tertiary theological issues, right? You don't have to automatically apply this to the truth of Christianity altogether, but at some level, you should be considering whether or not you are more confident than the evidence warrants. And here's a here's a bonus fifth question specifically for for us Christians, and that is, am I confusing my interpretation of scripture with scripture itself. We have to again remember that scripture is infallible, but our interpretation is not. Okay. So in this in this conversation about certainty and confidence and how much is reasonable, how much evidence do should do we need, should we need, all of that. At the end of the day, I think what's most important practically is that we all recognize the fact that Christianity doesn't become more true because you pretend to have no doubts or questions, Jesus doesn't become more trustworthy if you exaggerate your certainty, right? We would be a lot better off if we would just be open about our doubts or our questions or things of that nature, Because it's just true that the resurrection doesn't become more evidenced by you saying something As ignorant as there's literally zero chance I could be wrong about this. That's just not how it works, right? Rather, you can acknowledge unanswered questions or doubts or even disbelief. And also have a high degree of confidence that the cumulative evidence overwhelmingly points towards Christianity. Both can be true. And so For me, I was raised in a place that demanded that we all have total certainty that our group was exactly what it claimed to be. There was there was no room for questions, doubts, fears, and certainly no place to entertain the possibility that we were wrong. But but Christians, true believers, real disciples of Jesus Christ, don't need to fear such considerations. Because if Christianity is true, then the evidence will support that truth. Now, again, just because we don't need to fear our doubts or our questions or those sorts of considerations doesn't mean that Christianity might as well be false. And it also doesn't mean that truth is relative. it's most important, I think, to recognize that it it doesn't mean that we can't also have strong convictions, because we certainly can. We just we simply want to acknowledge the fact that God is God and and we aren't. Therefore, I want to hold tightly to truth while holding my own ability to understand that truth with appropriate humility, I can have both of these positions. Because Christian maturity isn't becoming less convinced of what's true. It's learning to distinguish between confidence our confidence in truth as a principle and our confidence in ourselves.