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Richard Conn on Russia: Trump Presents 'Dream Scenarios'(Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim
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  Speaker 1: Fox on Bloomberg Radio. US. Russia ties crumbling under the
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  Speaker 1: weight of Syria a nuclear pact. What is next? White
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  Speaker 1: House spokesman Josh Ernest saying on Monday, everybody's patients with
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  Speaker 1: Russia has run out, blaming Vladimir Putin's government for undermining
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  Speaker 1: the fight against Islamic State and for indiscriminate bombing. This
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  Speaker 1: could killed civilians and targeted hospitals in Syria, and of
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  Speaker 1: course Russia Putin's team firing back. Where does this leave investors? Happy?
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  Speaker 1: So happy to welcome back to the show. Richard Kahan,
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  Speaker 1: Managing partner at Eurasia ED Advisors. It's a problem solving,
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  Speaker 1: solving and deal making firm. Uh that links in business
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  Speaker 1: and politics in Russia, Ukraine. And Richard, you yourself, you
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  Speaker 1: speak Russian, You've lived in Russia. You worked with yeltsin team,
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  Speaker 1: Yelton's team when you started in ran the Moscow office
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  Speaker 1: of an international law firm. So you know this so well.
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  Speaker 1: Business and politics. Let's start there. I want to know
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  Speaker 1: you think about what's happened this week, but in terms
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  Speaker 1: of what you guys, do why is this so important? Well,
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  Speaker 1: I'll start by saying that I'm not sure changes dramatically
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  Speaker 1: the environment for business in Russia. You know, we've already
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  Speaker 1: been in a mode of sanctions for many years. U
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  Speaker 1: S sanctions against Russia, tremendous pressure arising from the activities
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  Speaker 1: in Ukraine that Russia undertook, and just a general malaise
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  Speaker 1: and that relationship. This though, is yet a further frosting
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  Speaker 1: of that, another layer of ice on it um. And
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  Speaker 1: it's disappointing because there are areas where the US and
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  Speaker 1: Russia can cooperate um. Syria is one example of that,
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  Speaker 1: global warming, other various international security issues where our countries
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  Speaker 1: can cooperate, even if we don't see eye to eye
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  Speaker 1: on a variety of different policies. So it's disappointing and
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  Speaker 1: probably signals the end of any real opportunities during this
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  Speaker 1: administration to do much with Russia. Richard, If this was
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  Speaker 1: a chess match, and you know a lot about chess matches.
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  Speaker 1: If this was a chess match, who would be in
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  Speaker 1: control and what would be the act of agenda of
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  Speaker 1: all the parties of both sides. I would share my
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  Speaker 1: perspective in this way that we the U S and
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  Speaker 1: Western Powers have a far more dominant position on the chessboard.
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  Speaker 1: And those are long term structural advantages by virtue of
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  Speaker 1: UH frankly, just the strength of our economies, government UH
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  Speaker 1: integration that we have among all these different allies and
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  Speaker 1: in addition to the diversification of our economies. So Russia
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  Speaker 1: is in a very weak posture and has been, frankly
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  Speaker 1: for centuries compared to many other countries. This is not new.
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  Speaker 1: Russia has been isolated and quite quite weak compared to
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  Speaker 1: Western nations. But given that, they certainly are trying to
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  Speaker 1: make the best of that situation, trying to gain respect
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  Speaker 1: in a place in the world and recapture some sense
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  Speaker 1: of if Russia has a great country, and obviously we'd
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  Speaker 1: all like to see them UH play a productive role
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  Speaker 1: in the world UH. And they do that by finding
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  Speaker 1: ways to be relevant. So they're making what I'll call
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  Speaker 1: small tactical moves in a weak position on the chess
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  Speaker 1: board to try to gain some leverage. And you know,
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  Speaker 1: I think they've done certainly a good job over the
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  Speaker 1: last several years in becoming relevant in the international scene.
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  Speaker 1: But they need to in my view, convert that into
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  Speaker 1: something more positive in order in the long term to
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  Speaker 1: to have the role that I think they want in
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  Speaker 1: the world, which is one of of being fully respected.
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  Speaker 1: We've been talking a lot about the elections, and we're
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  Speaker 1: getting ready for the vice presidential debate tonight. How does
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  Speaker 1: Russia view the US elections up and how do you
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  Speaker 1: view the the role that either candidate might play. You
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  Speaker 1: just said, forget about this administration. When we look ahead
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  Speaker 1: to the next four years, what would the difference be.
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  Speaker 1: What is Russia hoping for? This is a very unusual situation.
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  Speaker 1: We faced this during this election cycle because it is
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  Speaker 1: quite clear to me based on my many years in
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  Speaker 1: Russia and uh knowledge of how the KGB and its successor,
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  Speaker 1: the FSB operate. It's a very strange thing to see
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  Speaker 1: their role in our election being so prominent, and particularly
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  Speaker 1: uh they're taking sides in it and trying to help
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  Speaker 1: obviously the Republican candidate in this instance, and you know,
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  Speaker 1: the to see as we did, uh, you know, Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump take a position, uh say two months or so
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  Speaker 1: ago that was strongly really supporting Russia Visavi Crimea and
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  Speaker 1: the Ukraine, even taking the position that they had not
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  Speaker 1: yet invaded Ukraine, not even taking into account what's happened
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  Speaker 1: in the eastern portion of that country. And then the
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  Speaker 1: prominence of two advisors is that Trump had, for a
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  Speaker 1: period of time his campaign manager who had basically admitted
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  Speaker 1: taking large amounts of money from Janakovich, who was as
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  Speaker 1: we all know, just essentially an emissary for Putin, and
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  Speaker 1: then Carter Page, you know, both of it, who was
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  Speaker 1: his security advisor, particularly visa be Russia. Um these are
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  Speaker 1: dream scenarios for Russia and very disturbing for me when
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  Speaker 1: I realized that we now have a candidate receiving security briefings.
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  Speaker 1: I'm just very hopeful that these experiences have alerted him
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  Speaker 1: and his team to the prospect that, um, you know,
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  Speaker 1: that the Russian security agencies would like to have some
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  Speaker 1: leverage over him. And it's also part of why I
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  Speaker 1: worry about the lack of disclosure, because that can also
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  Speaker 1: create situations where they have information that they can essentially
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  Speaker 1: use against him by not disclosing. Thank you very much
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  Speaker 1: for coming in and spending time with us. Richard Khn
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  Speaker 1: always interesting. Matt managing a partner at Eurasia Advisors and
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  Speaker 1: also with Innovate Partners giving us his view of Russia
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  Speaker 1: and the United States. You're listening to taking stock. This
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  Speaker 1: is Bloomberg