Latest / Talking Science / Volcanoes – Windows into the Deep Earth
Transcript
- 0:00You know, it is, it's pretty wild to think about,
- 0:03but the absolute deepest hole humanity has ever
- 0:06managed to drill into the Earth reached about
- 0:0812 kilometers down. Right. The Kola super deep
- 0:12borehole, 12 kilometers. Exactly. 12 kilometers.
- 0:15And I mean, to put that into perspective for
- 0:17everyone listening, the distance to the very
- 0:20center of the Earth is roughly 6 ,000 kilometers.
- 0:23Yeah. It's a massive difference. It is. That
- 0:2512 kilometer hole is basically just a literal
- 0:28scratch on the surface of our planet. The vast,
- 0:30overwhelming majority of the Earth's interior
- 0:32is just completely, totally inaccessible to us.
- 0:36It really is a profound realization when you
- 0:38stop and think about it. We have mapped the surface
- 0:41of the moon in incredible detail, right? We have
- 0:43rovers driving around on Mars right now. Yeah,
- 0:45sending back high def photos. Exactly. But the
- 0:48ground right beneath our own feet remains essentially
- 0:51an alien world. We just we simply cannot reach
- 0:54it with our current technology. And honestly,
- 0:56we likely never will. Which is exactly why understanding
- 0:59volcanoes completely changes how you see the
- 1:02planet. We're doing a deep dive today into how
- 1:04they actually work. And, you know, our mission
- 1:06is to sort of demystify the whole process. Yeah.
- 1:09Assuming. zero prior science background. We're
- 1:11just going to break it down. Right. Because volcanoes,
- 1:13they aren't just mountains that occasionally
- 1:15breathe fire. You know, they are literal windows
- 1:19to the center of the earth. They deliver material
- 1:22from depths we could never even dream of digging
- 1:24to. They're pretty much our only physical messengers
- 1:27from the deep earth. They bring that deep, hidden
- 1:30unknown right up to the surface for us to look
- 1:32at. They do, but to really interpret what these
- 1:36messengers are telling us, we actually have to
- 1:38start by tearing down a very, very common mental
- 1:41image. Oh, yeah. Yeah, of what actually sits
- 1:44beneath a volcano. I think we all have a very
- 1:46specific picture in our heads, right? movies
- 1:50or middle school science diagrams. Definitely.
- 1:53The classic underground cavern. Exactly. You
- 1:56picture a volcano and underneath it, you imagine
- 1:59this giant glowing underground swimming pool
- 2:02of liquid magma. Just, you know, sloshing around
- 2:06in a massive cave waiting to erupt. Right. The
- 2:08underground lake of fire. It's a striking image,
- 2:11but modern geophysics paints a totally different
- 2:13picture. Oh, really? Yeah. Magma chambers are
- 2:16rarely these big tanks of purely liquid rock.
- 2:20Instead, they are much closer to a hot... Mostly
- 2:24solid crystalline mush. A mush. Yeah, a mush.
- 2:28The melted liquid part is actually just distributed
- 2:31through the tiny gaps and pores between the solid
- 2:34crystals of rock. Wait, so it's less like a cavern
- 2:36filled with liquid lava and more like, I don't
- 2:39know, one of those slushies you get at a gas
- 2:41station. That is actually a really great analogy.
- 2:43Because it's mostly icy crystals. Right. With
- 2:45just enough liquid syrup in between to hold the
- 2:47whole thing together. Exactly. A very, very hot
- 2:49slushie. That is a highly accurate way to visualize
- 2:52it. Underneath a volcano, this mush just sits
- 2:55there, mostly solid and totally immobile. So
- 2:58how does it erupt then if it's just stuck there?
- 3:00Well, eruptions usually happen when that mush
- 3:02gets mobilized. Often, what triggers it is a
- 3:05fresh batch of incredibly hot, truly liquid magma
- 3:09arriving from much deeper down in the earth.
- 3:11It shoots up into the chamber, heats up the slushy,
- 3:15destabilizes the entire system, and... and that
- 3:19forces the material up to the surface. Okay,
- 3:21so tracing this back a step then, where is that
- 3:24fresh, hot liquid magma coming from the first
- 3:27place? A good question. Because, I mean, the
- 3:29Earth isn't just a liquid ball on the inside,
- 3:31right? The mantle, that massive, thick layer
- 3:33just beneath the crust, that's actually solid
- 3:35rock. It is solid rock, yes. It's incredibly
- 3:38hot, way above its normal melting point at the
- 3:40surface, but it remains solid. Because of the
- 3:43pressure. Exactly. Because of the immense crushing
- 3:45pressure of all the rock resting on top of it.
- 3:48It does flow, but it flows incredibly slowly.
- 3:50Like how slowly? Like warm plastic over millions
- 3:53of years. Wow. So it is absolutely not a liquid
- 3:55ocean of magma down there. To get liquid magma
- 3:58to fuel a volcano, you have to actively find
- 4:00a way to melt that solid mantle rock. And there
- 4:03are a few specific ways the Earth actually manages
- 4:06to melt that solid rock. Right. Because changing
- 4:10the state of rock under that much pressure must
- 4:13take immense geological forces. It does. There
- 4:16are basically three primary mechanisms, and they
- 4:19dictate the exact kind of volcanoes we end up
- 4:21seeing on the surface. Okay, what's the first
- 4:23one? The first is called decompression melting.
- 4:26Decompression melting. Right. Because that deep
- 4:29rock is under enormous pressure, the molecule...
- 4:32are just forced to stay packed together in a
- 4:34solid state, even though the temperature is insanely
- 4:37high. Right. The heat wants to melt it. but the
- 4:40pressure won't let it. Exactly. So if you simply
- 4:42reduce that pressure, the rock can suddenly melt
- 4:46without adding a single degree of extra heat.
- 4:48Oh, it's like taking the lid off a pressure cooker.
- 4:50Yeah. The heat was already in there, but the
- 4:52pressure was keeping everything contained. That's
- 4:54the core of it, yeah. This happens mostly where
- 4:56tectonic plates are pulling apart from each other.
- 4:59When the plates separate, the pressure on the
- 5:01mantle right underneath them is relieved. We
- 5:04see this at mid -ocean ridges, deeply underwater,
- 5:07and at continental rift valleys. Like the one
- 5:10in East Africa. Exactly, like in East Africa.
- 5:12It is actually the most voluminous form of volcanism
- 5:16on the planet. Really? I feel like you never
- 5:18hear about it. Because almost all of it happens
- 5:20unseen in the pitch black on the seafloor, so
- 5:23it rarely makes the evening news. Okay, well,
- 5:26pulling plates apart to drop the pressure makes
- 5:29perfect logical sense. What about the most famous
- 5:33volcanoes, like the ones on the Pacific Ring
- 5:35of Fire? Ah, subduction zones. Yeah, because
- 5:38those happen where tectonic plates are crashing
- 5:40together, right? Pushing the pressure up. How
- 5:43does an increase in pressure result in melting
- 5:45rock? It doesn't, actually. And that leads us
- 5:48to the second mechanism, which involves adding
- 5:50water. Adding water. Yeah. At subduction zones,
- 5:53one tectonic plate is shoved underneath another,
- 5:55and it dives deep down into the Earth. Right.
- 5:58As that huge slab of ocean floor gets pushed
- 6:01down, it carries water with it. Wait, hold on.
- 6:04I have to pause on that. Sure. Because that sounds
- 6:06completely backward to literally everything we
- 6:09experience in daily life. Yeah. I mean, if I
- 6:11want to stop something from burning or melting,
- 6:12I throw water on it. Right. Water puts out fires.
- 6:16Yeah. Water cools things down. How on Earth...
- 6:19Does adding water melt solid rock? I know. It
- 6:23is deeply counterintuitive until you reframe
- 6:26how you think about the water down there. We
- 6:28aren't talking about water acting as a coolant.
- 6:30We are talking about water acting as a chemical
- 6:33catalyst. A chemical catalyst. Yes. The water
- 6:36is actually chemically locked inside the minerals
- 6:38of the rock itself. And as that descending plate
- 6:41gets deeper and hotter, it literally sweats out
- 6:44that locked in water into the solid mantle wedge
- 6:47sitting right above it. Oh, wow. It sweats it
- 6:50out. Yeah. And when you introduce water into
- 6:52the chemical structure of superheated solid rock,
- 6:55it substantially lowers the melting point of
- 6:57that rock. Oh, I see. Okay. It's like throwing
- 7:00salt on an icy sidewalk. Exactly. The salt doesn't
- 7:03heat up the ice. It just alters the chemistry
- 7:06so that the ice melts at a lower temperature.
- 7:08The water is doing the exact same thing to the
- 7:11rock deep in the earth. That is a brilliant comparison.
- 7:14The water hits the mantle, lowers its melting
- 7:17point, and the solid rock promptly begins to
- 7:19melt into magma. That is wild. This specific
- 7:23process is responsible for the Pacific Ring of
- 7:26Fire. Almost every famous volcano you can name,
- 7:29Mount St. Helens, Mount Fuji, Krakatoa, they
- 7:32were all born because the ocean floor is literally
- 7:34sweating water into the deep earth. The ocean
- 7:38floor sweating water into the mantle to create
- 7:40liquid rock. That is such a wild visual. It really
- 7:43is. So that's decompression and water. There's
- 7:46a third way to melt rock too, right? Yeah. One
- 7:48that doesn't rely on plate boundaries at all.
- 7:50Right. The third mechanism is called a hot spot.
- 7:52A hot spot. Yes. This is when a plume of unusually
- 7:56hot, buoyant material rises up from the very
- 7:59deep mantle way down near the Earth's core. It
- 8:02acts almost like a geological blowtorch. It is
- 8:05so intensely hot that it simply melts its way
- 8:07right through the tectonic plate sitting above
- 8:09it. Just burns right through? Exactly. Hawaii
- 8:11is the classic textbook case here. Right. And
- 8:14because the tectonic plate is constantly slowly
- 8:16moving over time, but the blowtorch plume underneath
- 8:19stays in one fixed place. You get a line of volcanoes.
- 8:23Spot on. The volcano directly over the hotspot
- 8:25is active, but as the plate carries it away from
- 8:28the heat source, it dies out and a new one forms
- 8:31behind it. Which perfectly explains why Hawaii
- 8:33is a chain of islands. Oh, that makes so much
- 8:35sense. Yeah. The Hawaiian emperor seamount chain
- 8:38is literally a geological record of the Pacific
- 8:41plate moving over a stationary hotspot for tens
- 8:45of millions of years. Wow. Yellowstone is another
- 8:48prime example of a hotspot. but it sits directly
- 8:50over a massive plume erupting through a thick
- 8:53continental plate instead of a thin oceanic one.
- 8:56Which, that changes the chemistry of the magma
- 8:58entirely, doesn't it? It absolutely does. And
- 9:00this brings us to a really crucial distinction
- 9:02for you guys listening. Once the rock is melted,
- 9:05whether by dropping pressure... adding water,
- 9:08or using a blowtorch. Why do some volcanoes just
- 9:12gently ooze rivers of lava that tourists can
- 9:15practically walk right up to while other volcanoes
- 9:18violently, catastrophically explode? Yeah, the
- 9:21difference between a gentle ooze and a massive
- 9:23explosion all comes down to magma composition,
- 9:27specifically a substance called silica. Right,
- 9:30silica, which is just all that silicon and oxygen.
- 9:34binding together. Exactly. And when you have
- 9:37high silica content, those molecules link up
- 9:39into extensive chemical chains and networks,
- 9:41right? It basically turns the magma into a highly
- 9:44viscous, sticky paste. Yep. But when the silica
- 9:47is low, the magma stays incredibly runny, almost
- 9:50like syrup. Right. And we call that runny, low
- 9:52silica magma basalt. Okay, basalt. The stiff,
- 9:55high silica magma is usually called rhyolite
- 9:58or andesite. But here's the thing. Viscosity
- 10:01alone doesn't cause an explosion. You also need
- 10:03immense pressure. So where does the pressure
- 10:05come from? That is where dissolved gases enter
- 10:08the equation. Magma contains massive amounts
- 10:11of dissolved gases, primarily water vapor and
- 10:13carbon dioxide. Okay. Deep underground, the immense
- 10:16pressure keeps those gases perfectly dissolved
- 10:19in the liquid rock. They are invisible. But as
- 10:22that magma rises toward the surface, the pressure
- 10:24drops. It's the soda bottle effect. Like, while
- 10:27the cap is on tight, a warm fizzy soda looks
- 10:30perfectly still because the pressure is keeping
- 10:34all that carbon dioxide dissolved in the liquid.
- 10:36Right. But the second you twist the cap and release
- 10:39the pressure, all those gas bubbles... instantly
- 10:42form out of solution and race to the top. Now
- 10:45combine that fizzy soda effect with the thickness
- 10:48of the magma we just talked about and you unlock
- 10:50the physics of a volcanic explosion. Oh, I see
- 10:53where this is going. Yeah. If you have runny,
- 10:56low silica magma, like in Hawaii, the bubbles
- 10:59form, but because the liquid is so thin, they
- 11:02easily slip right through it and escape into
- 11:04the air. The gas vents out naturally. Exactly.
- 11:06You get beautiful, dramatic lava fountains and
- 11:09glowing rivers. The internal pressure of the
- 11:11earth is released gracefully. But if you have
- 11:13that thick, highly networked, high silica magma,
- 11:16the bubbles form. But they can't travel through
- 11:19the paste? No, they can't. They get completely
- 11:21trapped. They're completely locked in. But the
- 11:24gas is still expanding as the magma continues
- 11:26to rise and the pressure drops further. So unimaginable
- 11:29pressure builds up inside the magma itself, pushing
- 11:33outward against this stiff, unyielding rock.
- 11:36Eventually it reaches a breaking point. And it
- 11:38just blows. The rock fails catastrophically.
- 11:42The magma is torn apart from the inside out by
- 11:45its own expanding gas. It fragments instantly
- 11:48into tiny razor -sharp pieces of ash and pumice
- 11:51and is blasted out of the vent at supersonic
- 11:54speeds. See, this completely reframes the danger
- 11:57for me. The difference between a beautiful lava
- 12:00flow and a mountain -destroying explosion has
- 12:03very little to do with how hot the magma is.
- 12:05Almost nothing to do with temperature, yeah.
- 12:06It is entirely about whether the expanding gas
- 12:09can escape gracefully or whether it gets trapped
- 12:11in a high silica paste until the whole system
- 12:13ruptures. And this highlights exactly why subduction
- 12:16zone volcanoes, the ones on the Ring of Fire
- 12:18created by water, are so incredibly dangerous.
- 12:21Because they have more silica. Yes. When magma
- 12:24rises through thick continental crust, it melts
- 12:26some of that crust and absorbs vast amounts of
- 12:29silica. So subduction zones produce exactly that
- 12:32sticky gas -charged magma that is prime for violent
- 12:34explosions. Which means we really need to rethink
- 12:37volcanic hazards entirely. Because, you know,
- 12:41you hear volcano and you instinctively think
- 12:43lava. Of course. But lava flows are basically
- 12:46the least of your worries in an explosive eruption.
- 12:49Absolutely. I mean, lava flows destroy property.
- 12:52Certainly they crush houses, bury roads and permanently
- 12:55alter landscapes. But they don't really catch
- 12:57people off guard. No, they rarely kill people
- 12:59simply because they move slowly enough that you
- 13:02can usually just walk away from them. The deadliest
- 13:04direct product of an explosive eruption is something
- 13:07else entirely. The pyroclastic flow. Just the
- 13:11name is terrifying. A pyroclastic flow is essentially
- 13:14an avalanche of superheated gas, volcanic ash,
- 13:18and pulverized rock. Yes, it behaves like a heavy
- 13:21boiling fluid racing down the flanks of the volcano
- 13:24at speeds well over 100 kilometers per hour.
- 13:27Over 100 kilometers an hour. And the temperature
- 13:29inside that cloud is hundreds of degrees Celsius.
- 13:32So you can't outrun it. and you can't survive
- 13:34it. Not at all. The sheer density of it is the
- 13:37critical factor. Because it is so heavily laden
- 13:40with fragmented rock and ash, it is much denser
- 13:43than the surrounding air. So it doesn't just
- 13:45go up into the sky? No, it doesn't float up.
- 13:47Gravity pulls it violently down and it funnels
- 13:50directly into valleys and low -lying areas. There
- 13:53is absolutely no outrunning a pyroclastic flow
- 13:56and no surviving being caught in one. This is
- 13:58exactly what happened to Pompeii, wasn't it?
- 14:00Yes. This is the exact phenomenon that buried
- 14:03the Roman cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum in
- 14:0579 AD. But the threat to human life doesn't stop
- 14:09when the eruption ends, or even with the initial
- 14:11blast radius. There's a secondary hazard called
- 14:14a lahar. And those often travel much further
- 14:18than the pyroclastic flows. Lahars are terrifyingly
- 14:21destructive. What are they exactly? A lahar is
- 14:24a volcanic mudflow. During an explosive eruption,
- 14:27huge amounts of fine volcanic ash fall on the
- 14:30surrounding landscape, right? Right. If that
- 14:32ash mixes with a large volume of water, which
- 14:35could come from torrential rains or, very commonly,
- 14:37from the extreme heat of the eruption instantly
- 14:39melting snow and ice at the volcano's summit,
- 14:42it turns into a heavy flowing slurry. And it's
- 14:46crucial to visualize this correctly. We aren't
- 14:48just talking about a muddy river here. The closest
- 14:50analogy for a lahar is fast -moving wet concrete.
- 14:53That is exactly what it's like. It has the mass
- 14:56and the density to carry entire boulders, uproot
- 14:59giant trees and completely sweep away bridges
- 15:01and reinforce concrete buildings as if they were
- 15:03made of paper. And just like pyroclastic flows,
- 15:06lahars funnel into river systems. But they can
- 15:09travel much, much further, striking settlements
- 15:12dozens of kilometers away, sometimes hours or
- 15:16even days after the actual eruption has peaked.
- 15:19I think the most devastating modern example of
- 15:21this was the 1985 eruption of Nevada del Ruiz
- 15:23in Colombia, right? Yes. The Armero tragedy.
- 15:26Armero is the textbook tragedy for this. Because
- 15:29from what I understand, the town wasn't even
- 15:31on the mountain. The people living there probably
- 15:33thought they were perfectly safe from a volcano
- 15:34that was nearly 50 kilometers away. They did.
- 15:37That geographical distance offered a terrible
- 15:40false sense of security. The eruption itself
- 15:42was comparatively modest actually. Really? Yeah.
- 15:45But the heat melted a substantial portion of
- 15:48the mountain's summit glacier. That immense volume
- 15:51of water mixed with fresh ash and created colossal
- 15:55lahars that roared down the river valleys in
- 15:58the dark. In the middle of the night. They hit
- 16:00the town of Armero in the dead of night, killing
- 16:02over 20 ,000 people. It remains a stark, heartbreaking
- 16:06reminder that you do not need to live on the
- 16:08slopes of a volcano to be in its direct path.
- 16:11It's just devastating. A lahar can wipe out a
- 16:14valley tens of kilometers away. But when we look
- 16:17at the really massive explosive eruptions, the
- 16:20impacts scale up exponentially. Like they can
- 16:23literally reach the stratosphere and alter the
- 16:25entire planet's climate. This is where a localized
- 16:28geological hazard becomes a global meteorological
- 16:31event. How does that happen? Well, when a very
- 16:33large explosive eruption occurs, it doesn't just
- 16:36blast rock and ash. It injects millions of tons
- 16:39of sulfur dioxide gas straight up into the stratosphere.
- 16:42Okay, sulfur dioxide. Once it reaches that altitude,
- 16:45the sulfur dioxide reacts with water vapor to
- 16:47form tiny sulfate droplets, which are known as
- 16:50aerosols. And the stratosphere is situated way
- 16:53above where our normal weather systems operate,
- 16:56right? There are no rain clouds up there to wash
- 16:58anything away. Precisely why it matters so much.
- 17:01Because there is no precipitation in the stratosphere
- 17:03to scrub these tiny droplets out of the air.
- 17:05They just persist. They just hang out there.
- 17:07Yeah. And high altitude winds rapidly spread
- 17:09them around the entire globe, creating this thin
- 17:12chemical veil. And what does that veil do? These
- 17:14droplets act like billions of tiny mirrors. They
- 17:17reflect a portion of the incoming sunlight right
- 17:20back out into space before it can warm the Earth's
- 17:22surface. So it literally blocks the sun. The
- 17:24inevitable result is global cooling, which can
- 17:27last for a year or two until the aerosols finally
- 17:30settle out. We actually saw a modern preview
- 17:32of this when Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines
- 17:36erupted in 1991, right? It injected so much sulfur
- 17:41into the stratosphere that it measurably cooled
- 17:44the global average temperature by roughly half
- 17:46a degree Celsius for a couple of years. We did,
- 17:49but honestly, Pinatubo was mild compared to historical
- 17:52extremes. Really? Oh, yeah. Mount Tambora in
- 17:56Indonesia, which erupted in 1815, was orders
- 17:59of magnitude more powerful. That blast produced
- 18:02an atmospheric veil so dense it caused what historically
- 18:05became known as the year without a summer. The
- 18:09downstream human impacts of Tambora are staggering
- 18:12to think about. You had widespread crop failures
- 18:15across the entire northern hemisphere. It literally
- 18:18snowed in New England in June. People were starving
- 18:20in Europe because the harvests failed. And it
- 18:23even bled into culture. Like Mary Shelley famously
- 18:26wrote Frankenstein because she and her friends
- 18:28were trapped indoors in Switzerland by the incessant,
- 18:31gloomy, unseasonal weather. Right. I mean, a
- 18:33mountain blowing its top in Indonesia directly
- 18:35caused famine and influenced literature in Europe.
- 18:38That is crazy. The global interconnectedness
- 18:41is profound. Okay. Which brings us to the ultimate
- 18:43extreme of explosive volcanism. Eruptions so
- 18:47massive, they defy our normal concept of what
- 18:49a volcano even looks like. The super volcanoes.
- 18:51The term gets thrown around a lot in disaster
- 18:53movies. Yeah. Usually alongside like a giant
- 18:56countdown clock. It does. While supervolcano
- 18:59is a bit of an informal media term, volcanologists
- 19:02do use it to categorize eruptions at the very
- 19:04top of the volcanic explosivity index. So what
- 19:07qualifies as a supervolcano? Specifically, singular
- 19:11events that eject more than 1 ,000 cubic kilometers
- 19:14of fragmented material. 1 ,000 cubic kilometers.
- 19:17I can't even picture that. That volume is almost
- 19:20incomprehensible. A single eruption of that size
- 19:23would bury an area the size of a large country
- 19:26in feet of ash. But the physical structure left
- 19:29behind is actually fascinating because these
- 19:31systems don't build towering, majestic, cone
- 19:34-shaped mountains. Because they physically can't,
- 19:37right? Yeah. The eruption is so massive it empties
- 19:39the underground magma chamber so comprehensively
- 19:42and so quickly that the rock roof of the chamber
- 19:44has nothing left to support its weight. Exactly.
- 19:47The ground itself simply collapses downward into
- 19:49the void. You don't get a mountain blowing its
- 19:51top. You get the ground falling in, leaving a
- 19:53vast, bowl -shaped depression in the earth called
- 19:56a caldera. A caldera? Yes. Yellowstone is a classic
- 20:00caldera system. Its main crater is roughly 50
- 20:04by 70 kilometers across. You can literally drive
- 20:07through it and barely realize you are inside
- 20:09a volcano. Because it's so big. Right. And the
- 20:12Togo Caldera in Sumatra, formed by an eruption
- 20:15around 74 ,000 years ago, was even larger. Okay,
- 20:18I am so glad we are landing on Yellowstone. I
- 20:20constantly see headlines declaring that the Yellowstone
- 20:23Supervolcano is overdue for a catastrophic eruption
- 20:27that's going to... going to wipe out half the
- 20:29continent. Let's apply some logic to this. Is
- 20:32Yellowstone actually overdue? It is absolutely
- 20:35not overdue. And we need to treat those headlines
- 20:37with extreme skepticism. Thank you. People look
- 20:40at the geological record. They see that Yellowstone
- 20:42has produced massive eruptions on a rough average
- 20:45of every six to eight hundred thousand years.
- 20:47And they treat that average like a bus timetable.
- 20:50But the Earth doesn't have a calendar on its
- 20:52wall. It doesn't care that it's been 600 ,000
- 20:54years since the last major event. Exactly. The
- 20:57physics of an eruption are driven by thresholds,
- 20:59not time. Thresholds. An eruption only occurs
- 21:03when sufficient eruptable magma has accumulated,
- 21:06and the internal gas pressure exceeds the structural
- 21:09strength of the rock holding it in. right now
- 21:11there is zero geophysical evidence that yellowstone
- 21:14is preparing to erupt even with all the geysers
- 21:16and earthquakes yes the ground deforms and there
- 21:19are periodic earthquake swarms but that is entirely
- 21:21within the normal baseline behavior for a restless
- 21:25living caldera system that is slowly cooling
- 21:28and shifting okay well that is deeply comforting
- 21:30but it does raise a practical question since
- 21:34we know volcanoes operate on physical thresholds
- 21:36rather than a neat timetable Do we actually have
- 21:40reliable ways of knowing when those thresholds
- 21:42are being crossed? Can we predict when a volcano
- 21:45is actually waking up? The science of forecasting
- 21:47is advancing rapidly. While predicting the exact
- 21:49timing of earthquakes remains incredibly difficult,
- 21:52volcanoes are actually remarkably cooperative.
- 21:55Really? How so? Well, as we discussed earlier,
- 21:58eruptions begin with new magma moving up from
- 22:00deep underground. That movement produces very
- 22:03clear physical warning signs on the surface.
- 22:05Right, because thousands of tons of liquid rock
- 22:08cannot force its way upward without literally
- 22:10shoving the existing rock out of its way. Exactly.
- 22:13And that shoving fractures the crust, causing
- 22:16highly distinctive swarms of small earthquakes.
- 22:19Okay, so you watch for earthquakes. That's one
- 22:21sign. The immense physical pressure of the rising
- 22:24magma also causes the ground surface itself to
- 22:27inflate and bulge upward. The ground actually
- 22:29swells. It does. We can measure this deformation
- 22:33with incredible precision. Scientists use GPS
- 22:36stations on the mountain and satellites utilizing
- 22:38radar interferometry, which basically bounce
- 22:42signals off the ground to measure changes in
- 22:44elevation down to the millimeter. That is amazing.
- 22:47So you have the ground shaking, you have the
- 22:49mountain literally swelling up like a balloon.
- 22:51And I imagine the gases are changing too as that
- 22:54magma gets closer to the surface and the pressure
- 22:56drops. Yes. You measure dramatic changes in both
- 22:59the composition and the sheer volume of gases
- 23:01venting from the crater, particularly increases
- 23:04in carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. So putting
- 23:07it all together gives you a warning. Monitoring
- 23:09these three indicators, seismicity, ground deformation,
- 23:12and gas emissions, has led to incredible, genuine
- 23:15successes in forecasting. Returning to the 1991
- 23:19eruption of Mount Pinatubo, scientists tracked
- 23:22those exact warning signs perfectly. And they
- 23:25evacuated in time? They forecasted the eruption
- 23:27in time to evacuate tens of thousands of people,
- 23:30saving countless lives. Volcanology isn't perfectly
- 23:34precise, and volcanoes can certainly be deceptive,
- 23:37but the warning signs are real, physical, and
- 23:40readable. It really makes you wonder why humans
- 23:42have historically chosen to live so close to
- 23:44them, given the risks. But there's a powerful
- 23:47incentive, isn't there? There is. Because volcanic
- 23:49ash breaks down into some of the most incredibly
- 23:51fertile, nutrient -dense agricultural soil on
- 23:54the planet. For thousands of years, the risk
- 23:57of a potential eruption was far outweighed by
- 24:00the immediate reward of abundant food. It's a
- 24:02fundamental human trade -off. We build our societies
- 24:04where the resources are, and we tend to possess
- 24:06a very short -term memory when it comes to geological
- 24:09time. Yeah, that makes sense. Let's bring this
- 24:11reality home and look at a specific geographic
- 24:13context, unlike Australia. The Australian mainland
- 24:17doesn't have any currently active volcanoes.
- 24:19It sits safely right smack in the middle of its
- 24:22tectonic plate, far away from the subduction
- 24:24zones of the Ring of Fire. But there is a massive
- 24:27volcanic province stretching across western Victoria
- 24:30and southeast South Australia. And geologists
- 24:34are very careful not to call it dead. They call
- 24:37it dormant. That's a crucial scientific distinction.
- 24:40Dead implies the heat source is permanently gone,
- 24:43that the engine is completely cold. Dormant simply
- 24:46means it is sleeping. The most recent eruptions
- 24:50in that Australian volcanic province happened
- 24:52just a few thousand years ago. Which, to human
- 24:54civilization, the few thousand years sounds like
- 24:56ancient history. But to the Earth? To the Earth,
- 24:59a few thousand years is barely a blink of an
- 25:02eye. Geologically speaking, that is incredibly
- 25:04recent. The underlying mantle dynamics haven't
- 25:07vanished. There is every reason to believe magma
- 25:10will eventually find its way to the surface in
- 25:11Australia again. Just a matter of geological
- 25:14time. Wow. Well, pulling all of this together,
- 25:17we've gone from the deepest, most inaccessible
- 25:19rocks to the upper reaches of the stratosphere.
- 25:22We've learned that underneath a volcano sits
- 25:24a mostly solid slushy of crystalline rock. Yep,
- 25:27the slushy. And to melt it, the Earth has to
- 25:30drop the pressure by pulling plates apart. turn
- 25:33a blowtorch hotspot on it, or force water out
- 25:36of a subducting plate to lower its melting point.
- 25:38And we explored how the personality of the eruption,
- 25:41whether it flows gently or explodes catastrophically,
- 25:44is entirely dictated by how much sticky silica
- 25:47is in the magma. Right. That silica determines
- 25:49whether the fizzy, expanding gases can safely
- 25:52escape, or whether they get trapped until the
- 25:55rock is literally blown apart. And if it does
- 25:57blow apart, you aren't running from a river of
- 25:59lava. You are facing pyroclastic flows of superheated
- 26:02ash hugging the ground. Lahars roaring down river
- 26:06valleys with the force of wet concrete. And if
- 26:08the eruption is massive enough, a veil of sulfate
- 26:11aerosols that can plunge the entire globe into
- 26:13a cold, dark year without a summer. It really
- 26:16highlights how deeply interconnected the solid
- 26:18Earth, the oceans, the atmosphere, and human
- 26:21history truly are. It's all one massive system.
- 26:24It is. I want to leave you all with a final thought
- 26:26to mull over, building on where we started this
- 26:28whole journey today. The next time you are out
- 26:31for a walk or at a garden center, and you pick
- 26:34up a piece of light, airy pumice, or a dark,
- 26:37heavy basaltic rock, realize that you aren't
- 26:40just holding a standard stone. No, you're not.
- 26:42Think about the incredible physical journey it
- 26:44took to get to your hand. You are holding a rare
- 26:47direct messenger from a hidden, completely alien
- 26:50world, thousands of kilometers beneath our feet.
- 26:53It's a place humanity will never, ever be able
- 26:55to visit. But every so often that alien world
- 26:58reaches up to the surface just to remind us it
- 27:00is there.