Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Winter Over?🔥Technical Analysis with Tim Warren

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Crypto Winter Over?🔥Technical Analysis with Tim Warren · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Is Crypto winter over. It looks like it. Today, we're
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: gonna break it down with you guys. It's gonna be
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: a good one. I've got a trader with me today.
• 0:07
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• 0:09
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• 0:11
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• 0:33
  Speaker 1: give you one hundred dollars funding reward just to get
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: going and get started. I'm gonna play a clip and
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: then I'll bring in Tim and we'll go into some
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: stuff today because we're gonna break down a lot of
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: coins for you, a lot of tokens in general. We'll
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: get into bitcoin eight, it's a handful of other Salona Avalanche, chainling.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: We're gonna break it down all for you. So let's
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: start though with Mike novograts because he's talking about the
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: market's going higher. Take a look. I feel fantastic now.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I feel like I've got a testosterone booster.
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: Crypto feels like it wants to go higher.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: It just does.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: You see all the crypto names are rallying today.
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: That's partly on more optimism around the Clarity Act passing,
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: and it's just it just feels like there's enough buying it.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Micro's strategy goes up every day. We take eighty four out,
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: we go to one hundred.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: All right, eighty four out, going to one hundred. I'm
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: going to bring in, of course, mister Tim Warren coming
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: in from Tim Warren Trades. How are you man?
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: I'm doing good.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: How you doing, Paul? What do you think about Mike's
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: statement there we take eighty four out and we're on
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: our way to one hundred. What do you think?
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: I think he's probably right, But that's one of those things.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: It's like, all right, then we take one hundred k
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: out're talking about one hundred and twenty eight, and we've
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: got one hundred twey eight, So you can keep raising
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: the bar. Let's start by just taking out the resistance
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: right in front of us. Yeah, we had this nice
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: run up to almost eighty three thousand, but as I've
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: saiden your show before, I want to make sure i'm
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: clear here. It's called higher and I thought it would.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: But there's still this bear flag pattern in play that
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: is just not going away. Volume is not coming in
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: to confirm that bulls are fully in charge. And there's
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: a couple things popped up in the charts that just
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: make me wonder can we even make it back up
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: to eighty four yet before another correction?
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: If you look at the chart right now, Tim, and
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: you look at the performance that we had coming off
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: of last week after the Bitcoin conference and through consensus
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: this week, a lot of activity on bitcoin in general,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: where would you place it today right now?
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Well, I'll say one thing, this is the first time
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: actually had a video about this, and you know what
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: trends break it happens. This is the first bitcoin conference,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Paul that the days after the conference actually were bullish.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: Every other conference has been bearsed, So hats off for
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: a changing of pace. But here's the reality. You can
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: see on my chart right now. You can see on
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: the red line if people are watching, there's a rising
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: red line of resists. Since it's a rising green line
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: of support, this is called a rising channel. Even worse,
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: when you pair this right after an explosive downward push,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: it's called a bear flag pattern. And people were freaking
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: out because even on this chart you're saying, Tim, look,
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: we broke above the line right here a couple of
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: days ago. That means the pattern's broken. Right, It's not
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: that simple. Take a look at the last bear flag pattern.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: We actually had a candle go up above this, couldn't
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: close above it. We broke up above resistance, and then
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: what would happen over the next couple of weeks. We,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: of course would crash down to new lows for the market.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: Now I'm learning more and more as I do this.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't want to say anything as one
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: hundred percent. I actually shifted my perspective Paul here recently saying,
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: you know what, I want to give the benefit of
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: doubt to the bulls. How they pushed, and yes we're
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: on what seems like the doorstep of the clar deet passing.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: If you would when I was on your show two
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: weeks ago, I would have told you the likelihood of
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: the bottom being in probably around fifteen percent. I would
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: probably push it closer to twenty five to thirty percent today,
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: but that's still leaves us with a hefty percentage of
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: saying that we should still go to new lows. We
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: haven't taken out. We haven't created bullish divergence, which again,
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: things could change, but we've never had a bear market
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: end in bitcoin without at least a daily bullish divergence.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: That hasn't happened yet. We're still sitting in a bear
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: flag pattern. We did invalidate an Elliott Wave theory breakdown
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: that I talked about your show before, but that doesn't
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: mean just because Elliott Wave broke down that we can't
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: go low or that that's like saying, all right, if
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: we had eight legs of a chair, now we only
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: have seven. Right. There still are other signs out there
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: that the markets aren't quite ready to go up. And
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: I'll give you a leg that people just don't think
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: about too often. And I don't want to pick on
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: Mike novograts because it's more about the people his sector
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: and his fear. These are very large and very wealthy
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: individuals who do not care about minute price action. They
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: care about long term action. But a lot of times,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: whether they mean to or not. Some of them do
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: mean it, some of them might not. They don't represent
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: the markets well. A lot of times. When they start
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: talking bullishly, that's a reason for people to sell off.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: When they talk barers, that's a reason for people to
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: buy up. So even listening to Mike Novograts's clip, and
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: I respect Mike Novograts from a macro perspective, him saying
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: the sentence, well, if we just break eighty four thousand,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: we'll get up over one hundred. Sure, but there's no
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: guarantee right now on the charts that we're going to
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: even make it back up to that eighty four thousand.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well in eighty four is holding, That would be
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: a wild performance from where it's standing right now. Bitcoin
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: trading in around seventy nine. As we record to your
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: point that you hit on right there, I've got a
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: clip from Tom Lee because I think this also comes
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: in in some of his predictions too, that I'll show
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: you guys, But let me go to this clip real
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: quick and see what you think.
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: Crypto winter is over and this spring is here, meaning
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: the bull market's starting. Most people don't recognize when a
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: bull market is starting that's the case because bitcoin has
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: now risen for three consecutive months. Why does that matter.
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: You're never in a bear market if bitcoin closes up
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: three consecutive months. So since the inception of bitcoin being
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: up two months in a row could happen in a
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: bear market, for instance, it happened in twenty twenty two,
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: but you've never had three consecutive months. So to me,
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: if bitcoin closes up above seventy six seventy six thousand
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: this month, the bear market is definitively over all.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Right, So there you have it above seventy six. Now
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: the key is that is May, and you've got Tom
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Lee's prediction right here, and this is year end this year,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six Bitcoin one fifty to two hundred eighth
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: nine thousand to twelve thousand. All right, so let's jump
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: to the eighth chart. First of all, I think these
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: are very very high outlandish predictions. To your point, maybe
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: they're thinking, but he said the end of this year
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: prediction for end of year for this year.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: So we also remember the track record Tom Lee has
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: where he's been telling us we're gonna be What was
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: his prediction for end of twenty twenty five, yes, six.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Like extensively high.
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: Here's what I'll say about him, because I don't get
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: all my calls right either. There's not a single one
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: of us out there that get all of our calls right.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: The difference is it really stinks what I miss my calls.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: Because I'm a day trader, right, so we are trading
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: micro movements. Tom Lee. I want to give him credit,
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: but also say why I don't take him seriously. He's
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: not incentivized to pinpoint and get these calls exactly right
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: as a day trader I am. So when I miss it,
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: it does suck. It does it hurts me? And I'm like, Okay,
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: how do I go back and change my analysis? And
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: how do I get this right the next time? Right?
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: For him? And again Mike novograts, Michael Saylor, all these guys.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: These are big long term guys who they only bet like.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: They don't benefit at all from coming out and saying, hey, guys,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: we probably have a couple more months downside. That doesn't
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: help them. They want nothing but to say it's going up,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: and if they're wrong, it doesn't hurt them long term.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: That's why they can get away with it. Even when
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: you take a look at what he's saying here. If
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: you go back to my screen, we'll take a look
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: at the theeum here in a second, but I want
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: to look at the bitcoin chart. When he looks at
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: this monthly perspective. Keep in mind, as we're recording this,
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: this is May eighth, meaning we are a fourth of
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the way through the month. There's barely over a fourth
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: of the way through the month. I also want to
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: kind of clarify something he said, We've never had a
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: bear market have three positive months in a row. Well,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: guess that we also had never had We've never had
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: bitcoin price get above all time high before the having events.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: We've never had a bear market that only lasted this
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: many months. Like, there's so many things. I think we're
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: close to the bottom of this whole bear market, but
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: there are so many things that you could say, logically, Tom,
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: just because something's never happened before, it is not a
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: guarantee it's not going to happen this time. On the
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: ethereum front, though, Let's get over there and take a
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: look at ethereum. I'll take a look at the daily chart.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: Unlike Bitcoin, where Bitcoin you had some breaks above resistance
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: is giving people this edge and this feeling like maybe
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: this is the end. Ethereum's actually been slow, lightly downtrending
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: since these this recent high back on April seventeenth, right
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: so Ethereum not getting the same hype that Bitcoin's got
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: on those gotten here. Recently, even Shainleink started to make
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: some moves. Ethereum kind of just boringly trending. This direction
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: and this formation, while it's slightly different than bitcoins, it's
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: actually a rising wedge, not a rising channel. Effectively treated
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: the exact same way as a bear flag pattern. We
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: just call it a bare pennant. I'm not convinced we
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: have to drop all the way down. I think the
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: target would be somewhereround twelve hundred, but I think Ethereum
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: still could come back down here towards seventeen to sixteen
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars. Still, and just because we've delayed the process,
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: just because we're still hovering up here, you still have
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: these macro selling positions happen. We actually even here more
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: recently bitcoin Etherium a lot of coins fresh daily cell
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: signals on certain indicators, especially that I use here, So
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: there was an element of positivity overall. But right now ethereum,
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin and the maj majority of the crypto market, not all,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: but the majority. There's still probably a good argument that
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: we should at least go back down towards these lows,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: if not create new lows of this bear market.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Okay, there you go, guys. So still expecting a retracement now.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Lee has also been on record just so everybody's clear,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: because he did this, I think on CNBC Squadbox the
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: other day, is that he is still looking even though
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: we're seeing the S and P hit seventy four hundred
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: today just a few minutes ago, he still thinks that
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: we're going to see a pretty good retracement. So there
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: is some element to this because his whole thesis is
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: that you know, we're going to see a downside and
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: then we're going to see, you know, the mother of
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: all bull runs. You look at the macro scenarios and
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: then some of the regulatory fronts, you have to consider clarity.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Clarity of course, right here Robin Hood, CEO of LAD
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: talking about this CARDIAK needs to just one more small
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: push crossing the finish line. Calling the Foundation for the
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: American Dominance and Digital Finance. This helps them in many
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: other if you look at the odds right now, at
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: least over on poly market sixty nine percent after it
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: popped up over the last little bit. This is this week, guys.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So it was up as high as I think around
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: seventy three yeah, seventy three percent six one time, yeah
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: yeah yeah. So, uh, there's still that issue of this
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: entanglement that is happening between the banks and of course
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: what's going on with crypto industry that is a big factor.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: And uh you got to Zach Panel saying hey, Domino
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: three is in, and remember his Domino three was the
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Banking Committee moves ahead with Clarity markup, which is the
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: plan right now, at least according to everybody we're hearing
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: from in DC, the markup's going to happen next week. Now,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: does that mean it's done, No, it's not. Does not
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: mean it's done, but it does mean that it we
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: start to get at least a step forward. I want
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: to go to a clip real quick, because this is
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: van Ck talking about this, and then I want to
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: get your opinion on this. Take a look.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: One reason why our on chain economy ETF node is
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: up seventy five percent since inception, while Bitcoin is down
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: twenty percent is that we've focused on the companies that
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: can actually earn a cash flow from the adoption of
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: blockchain technology. The passage of the Clarity Act, I think
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: is a major question mark that could reignite some animal
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: spirits in that space. But we're still pretty cautious on
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: this all coin market. I would I think the investor
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: protections that are still yet to be worked out keep
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: a lot of institutions on the sideline. If Clarity passes,
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: that might be a time to even buy higher, if
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: the details will matter there.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: But a passage of Clarity Act would be wonderful. It
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: would speed things.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: Up, especially from in terms of an investor and flow
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: perspective into say ATFS. But if it doesn't pass, it's
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: not the end of the world.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: All right, So not the end of the world. Do
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: you think that is the case? Do you think without
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Clarity crypto still continues on its merry way? You think
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: this is a critical crossroad?
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: No, I think those I actually have never seen that clip,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: never didn't know who those two gentlemen were before watching it.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: But I think actually there's a lot of accuracy said
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: there is It would speed things up. It will speed
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: things up when it happens. If it doesn't happen, which
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: again I think it will. But if it doesn't, I
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: told my community. While I'm not a fan of the
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: four year cycle because I think institutional adoption would break it,
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: the way I see this happening is if we don't
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: get a Clarity Act build passed, what it does is
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: it delays and it probably brings the four year cycle
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: timeline back to full fruition. What did that mean? It
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: means we're probably not bottoming out and starting the next
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: bull market until October. Why because we're waiting on retail
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: to be the main driver of the market. Whereas if
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: the Clarity Act passes and a green light gets turned
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: on for institutions, all of a sudden, we're not waiting
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: for retail to come back and be ready to buy,
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: institutions are going to pick it up and change the
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: whole market in general. So I think they put it well.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I still think a bullmarket happens in twenty twenty seven.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: The question is does it start this summer or do
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: we have to wait till the fall for retail to
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: get back involved.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I look at this so everybody knows that's
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: basically a salve from two Cream and then of course
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Vanak Matthew Siegel who's been on our show before. Both
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: are really focused his faith. Yeah, both are institutional capital guys.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: So to your point exactly, it does have some potential
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: here in terms of driving what we could see in
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the market around institutional adoption. But really retail is going
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: to be the critical one. I still I'm on the
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: fence as to whether or not it's a go no
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: go kind of thing.
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you, I'll tell you a couple of coins
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: to be aware of that I think could be dramatically
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: hurt and their coins. I really like if the Clearity
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Act doesn't pass. I think Bitcoin can still do well.
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: I think the theory will still do well. I think
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: solon and will still do well. I even think coins
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: like XRP can do very well. But coins that seem
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: to be extremely reliant upon the emergence of real world assets,
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: I think ondo exploding right now. Chain Link and you
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: people won't know me know I love chainlink. One of
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: the big reasons I love chain link is because of
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: the role it plays in reled assets. But if institutions
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: can't go all in fully yet, because there's no Clarity Act,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: coins like that could struggle. Now to the flip side,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: I think clear decks in the pass. If it does pass,
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: those coins could be the leaders of the next the
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: next all coin season.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Look at this, though, tim Coinbase suffered service disruptions. This
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: is elevated temperature supposedly in a AWS server and data center.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Interesting stuff right now. It just seems like there's a
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: lot of unique things happening with Coinbase. They had the layoffs,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: They've had this service disruption here. You know, we've seen
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: narratives here that we think maybe there is an angle
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: for an acquisition. I know this is kind of crazy,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: but what if JP Morgan were to jump in and say,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: let's just buy Coinbase up at the precipice of a
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Clarity Act going through, you know, the next bull run
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: getting ready to take. Plus, you had Coinbase missing a
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: couple of earnings and the last one by a lot,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: So maybe they're a target right now. What would you
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: say to that?
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Well, I'd asked the question, what does Blackrocks think about that?
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: What is Fidelity think about what? What are these other
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: large ETF holders who are using Coinbase as their custodian,
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: what do they think about it, do you. I mean,
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: let's let's pretend. First of all, I'm not convinced that
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: the Coinbase is actually in trouble as a company, but
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: let's pretend they are and there is going to be
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: a buy out. I don't think it's so simple that
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: says JP Mortgan just swoops in and makes the deal.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: I think potentially you have Blackrocks saying I don't. I
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: don't want JP Morgan to have control over that. Let
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: me maybe I get involved, and I like a bid
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: to try to buy Coinbase. But but I also think
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: that Coinbase has gotten so many big friends here recently.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: You know, use the expression too big to fail. I
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: don't know if there's really much anything it's too big
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: to fail, but Coinbase is on that side of the spectrum.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: It's an interesting proposition. Though a buyout could happen, it's
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: not on my radar, and I would hesitate to lean
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: that way right this second. But I would also say
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: I don't If it does go that direction, it probably
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: won't be a simple one company suggestion. One company offering end.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Up with some alliances also from traditional finance that might
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: go that dire. I'm not saying that this is I'm
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: just always looking for narratives that could end up going
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: one direction. Listen, we have kind of isolated a lot
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: of different narratives in terms of investments. If you look
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: at the investments that have gone into poly market, the
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: investments that have gone into Calshi, what we'll most likely
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: see as one of the booms of the prediction market,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: all have come from traditional finance. So there is an
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: opportunity here.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: So just you think if if coins is in trouble,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: if coinbas is in trouble, Paul, you think that they
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: would have the ground. I mean, the Clarity Act almost
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: single handedly was delayed by Brian Armstrong here a couple
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: of months ago. It doesn't seem like a move he
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: could have made if his company is in trouble as well.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know. There's just about so he's a play
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: out before I I feel worried for point based in sake.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Hey, listen, I looked at your video. You did the
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: chain link versus Avalanche video. This is a great breakdown.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: If you guys are not following Tim's channel, let me
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: kind of zoom out here a little bit. I want
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: you to go over to Tim's channel because he does
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: a great job. But when you look at the comparison
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: here on chain Link, he had an adoption dominance, narrative
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: and asymmetric risk as the power poise place Avalanche you
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: had as tech and ecosystem. Would you not consider would
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: you not consider the asymmetric risk based on Avalanche's model
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: of you know, multiple chains, Why would you not give
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: it that? I'm just kind of curious.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so asymmetric risk we really were weighing. There is
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: that whole risk to reward ratio, right, so some this
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: is a whole Elite eight series, a part of other
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: things we did, and so we were I didn't just
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: write these by myself. We had a team work on this,
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: discuss it go back and forth. There were disagreements about
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: who he thought would win, but we came to this conclusion.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: You know, some of the matches we have, it was, well,
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: this coin probably has a higher ceiling, but it's way riskier.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: So for that reason, we're gonna give the win to
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: the safer coin. Others it's like, Okay, the risk is
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: not that big of a deal. So nowadays, who has
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: a better upside potential in terms of ROI? So we
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: look at asymmetric risk. It it really did have to
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: you with price action, and when the dust settles, maybe
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Avax does end up having a better bull market than Chainlink.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: I don't think so, though. I think chain Link is
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: a sleeping giant from potential market cap perspective, and this
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: one really did come down. I like, by the way,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: I like both Avax and Link. I think both are
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: gonna do very well. I hold both them, but especially
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: weighing the risk side, I think that if you were
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: to sit here and tell me right now, hey, Tim,
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: one of these two tokens just had a big problem
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: from their competitors from a technological standpoint, and it's not
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: going well, I would be much more likely to say,
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: think that was Avax having that problem. The Chainleink doesn't
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: mean I think Avax will have that problem. It just
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: means I think that Link is a safer investment at
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: the moment than Avax. If I had pitted Avax against
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: a different coin, let's say, like an Ondo, per chance
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: like Ondo would had a way higher ceiling. But I
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: would look at the risk factor and say, you know what,
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: I think that the risk factor leans towards Avax instead.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Well, and one advantage with chain Link is just the
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: involvement now with kelptout because of the exiting you know,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: layir zero, that's a win for chain Link, which because
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: back to your point, could be I won't. I guess
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: you could kind of put that in maybe the dominance
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: category because that would help them in terms of what
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: we'll see yes around those kind of narratives coming out.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: So big deal there. What about? Okay, So if you
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: look at chain Link right now on the chart and
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Avalanche on the chart, where would you put chain Link
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: at the end of the year. Do you have kind
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: of a picture out there of what chain Link might
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: might look like.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I haven't done a whole lot of year end
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: predictions yet because it again, when we just had the conversation,
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: will be clear, dex bill pass will not pass when
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: the bullmarkets start in the summer, will start in October.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: With that said, if we can start in the summer,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: I think there's a chance I'm not gonna say new
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: all time high. I think there's a chance Link can
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: break this cycle the previous cycles all the time high
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: of thirty dollars, they're thirty one dollars or so. So
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: I think my estimate for Link if we get a
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: summer bull market with the Clearity Act, I think thirty
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: to fifty dollars is a realistic range. And I think
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: you take a look at a coin like Avax. Now,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: Avax is dealing with highs from way back in twenty four,
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: not necessarily in twenty five, and I think, but you're
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: looking at similar range here. I think if we can
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: get a summer bullmarket, Aax is way down here obviously,
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: I think you could start to push back up towards
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: sixty five. And I think there's a case we go higher.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: I don't see Avax or Link being above their highs
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: of twenty one, yet when we go into twenty seven,
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: I think best case scenario, we're back towards Link a
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: little above Avax somewhere right around previous cycle highs. Now,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: you back this up and you tell me Tim, we
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: don't get the Clearact. Feel passing the bullmarket doesn't start
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: until the fall. Well, in that case, hey, I think
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: it'd be amazing if Link is back up over fifteen
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: to twenty dollars by the end of the year. For Avax,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: I think it'd be very lucky to be back up
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: above fifteen somewhere to fifteen to twenty dollars by end
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: of year. But that's of course thinking we're not starting
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: a bullmarket till October, so we really only have like
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: two and a half months of price action to the
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: upside unless something changes. By the way, we have not
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: seen bull markets start off with a bang. Bull markets
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: usually are a little slower, more gradual. So if anyone's wondering,
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: tim if the boorg starts, can't we just explode? We've
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: never seen a bullmarket explode like that before. You just
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: start to slow, gets sturdy, and then picks up later
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: if you look.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let's jump over to Salana real quick. I'll
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: just look at liquidations right now. Seventeen mil worth of
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: shorts just in the last twenty four sides of hitting
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: ninety breaking out quickly if you look at just the
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: right now. I'm on the daily right there. What about
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: this in terms of Solana? Where do you like this
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: later this summer?
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean again, so you're you're going with the
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: conversation of do we have a bullish summer?
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, back to the bullish summer?
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, I mean again. These are these
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: are eyeball picks based off the momentum that can happen.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Give me a summer all time high. Sorry, I apologize,
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: Give me a summer bullmarket. I think we could be
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: back rivaling with former puege like you never got to
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: three hundred, we were close. I think we I think
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Solana could explode back because you think.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: About tam I got really a back end there. Man,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: Come on, you're gonna tell me that we're gonna see
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Solana at three hundred dollars if we see a bull
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: market this summer.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: If the bull market starts in this summer Clarity Acts
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: bill passing, what is Salona benefiting a whole lot from
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: right now? It's benefiting from its big role in stable
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: coin play. I think that as momentum starts to pick
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: back up, Solana, by the way, in this elite eate
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: series is running through its competition because the technology and
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: the adoption it is hard. We didn't put ethereum into
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: this category with eight because it was just it would
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: have been too dominant. So if you exclude bitcoin ethereum,
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: there's just not a lot that can get in the
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: way of Solana's technology and adoption, even ethereum. It's a
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: good conversation to look at what they're doing together Solana.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: Here's the other thing I would say right now, Solana
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: comparatively is one of the more oversold tokens, almost like
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: it's purposely being kept down for something special down.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: There that I agree with. Hey, let's talk about Ondo
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: for a second. I'm gonna play a clip for you,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: because this is kind of an interesting angle on Ondo
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: that I don't think a lot of people realize. Let's
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: take a.
• 24:46
  Speaker 5: Look, right, take hyper liquid provincial swaps very much offshore.
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: I don't see a world in which everything that happens
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: offshore finds a home in the US the way that
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: it's happening offshore, that's just not going to happen, right,
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: There's always going to be more permissionless innovation happening offshore.
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: I don't see, you know, bangs get fully comfortable with
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: permissionless stable coins anytime soon. They're going to do token
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: is deposits, the DTCC, NASTAC, New York Stock Exchange, Name
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: your Track, FI, do tokenization and token is securities, but
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: probably in a permission environment. They're not going to be
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: issuing the rappers that work in DeFi in the way
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: that Ondo's doing all right.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: So that's Ian from Ondo, their CEO, And to the
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: point he's making there is that they've got the pack
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: or the partnership there with the dcc C. But at
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: the same time, permissionless is probably going to be a
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: continued growth, even though he did segue that into the
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: sense that he didn't think there'd be a mass adoption
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: here in the US, that it's mostly going to have
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: happen offshore. But still, this is a global market. We
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: see this in DeFi all the time. If you chart
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Ono right now, which has been flying here recently for
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: these reasons. You know, just if you look at the
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: narrative and you look at the fundamentals, where would you
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: put Onto. If let's go again bullish side of clarity
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: goes through, now we get kind of an unleash of
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: what the DTCC is going to be doing, and along
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: with a lot of other trad five what do you think.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's just start off with kind of what
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: I was talking about before, because I mentioned ONTO when
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: I was working with other tokens. Let's make sure we
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: understand Onto hit its high back in December of twenty
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: four up here at two twelve two thirteen area. It
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: dropped ninety percent, right, I know what it feels like.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: Everything dropped like close one hundred percent. This was one
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: of the worst blue chip alt coins out there, top
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: one hundred coins out there dropping. I'm not saying it
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: is the worst, it's just one of the worst. It
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: here is now up in the last ten days, so
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: I'm going back to this breakout back here. We hit support.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: We're now up, so we're at forty four cents now.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: So this has gone up since I made a video
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: about it earlier today. We're now up. Holy cow, seventy
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: five percent. When I made a video earlier today, Paul,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: it was sixty six percent.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's on a run. Yeah, it's seventies right now.
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: In that video. By the way I talk about you know,
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: I expected when we made a breakout above this, we
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: prepared our community lose this support level. We're coming down
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: here to nineteen cents, break and get above this resistance level.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: I had levels starting between thirty two to thirty six cents.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: So we actually made some money on this onto move,
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: but I took profits way too soon. Literally, did I
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: know ondo was ready to make massive movements this morning
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: when I made a video at forty one cents. I said,
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: watch for moves between forty six to fifty cents as
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: the next mark after that, and I'll pull up some
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: other resistance level. Did not mean liquidations there. Let's look
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: at some other order blocks and resistance levels here after that,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: we have levels. You know, there's there's a little pocket
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: that's actually a decent pocket there at sixty cents that's
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: really not much of anything. There's another big one up
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: here at ninety eighty eight. Ninety cents. By the way,
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: Onto also quietly doing something I think a lot of
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin holders hope the bitcoin can do here soon. And
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: that was we just smashed through the two hundred day SMA, right,
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: So pretty loud statement here from Ondo. Now, this is
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: where it's gonna get kind of crazy when you talk
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: about year end price prediction. First of all, let's just
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: make sure that Ondo sustains movements like this. This movement
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: last ten days is not sustainable. There's going to be
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: a correction, There's going to at least be a higher
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: low put in. But I do think when I told
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: people earlier that I think Bitcoin, for example, still is
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: not out of the woods yet. On setting in a
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: lower low neither's Ethereum, neither Solana, neither's XRP. I think
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: Ondo's making a case to potentially say, hey, guys, that
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: moved down towards twenty cents back in February. That might
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: have been the bottom. We might make a move back
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: down towards thirty cents and put in a higher low.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: But it seems like the life is finally coming back
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: to Ondo, and because it drops so far, so fast,
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: the potential for a massive move up is also there.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: So while this is going to sound very crazy, and
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: I'm not locking in, if the clear alread you have
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: to build passes this summer, if we get this unlocking
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: of real world asset tokenization from institutions, I'm not promising,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: I'm not guaranteeing. I'm saying, do not be surprised if
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: ONDO is at new all time highs by the end
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: of Okay, all right, a much higher explosion in twenty
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: seven and twenty eight.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Tim Warren says all time high.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: So there you go, he promises.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: No, that's going to be clipped. You know that. Tim
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Warren says all time high for ONO. You guys, you
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: know it's okay, So thinking about that, speaking of all
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: time high. Let's talk about Calshi. They hit a twenty
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: two billion dollar valuation after a one billion dollar raise. Wow,
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: this is insane. I'm like twenty two billion, you know
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: for Calshi. But if you look at twenty two billion,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: let's just go back. Remind everybody twenty two billion right there,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: and let's go over to pre market or pre stocks
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: right here and just take a look at where polymarket is.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: And when you look at polymarket, it's coded. I mean,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: this thing is setting in at a low level right
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: now compared to what the potential could be. Polym Again,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: this is available on X stocks. This is something you
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: can jump over on Jupiter and get into this. But
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying, first of all, not financial advice. These
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: are always high risk and you will lose everything, just
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: for everybody, but these are the kind of things that
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: could be on the move. Well, this is a Jupiter platform.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: If you guys want to jump over and learn a
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: little bit about it, you can go to jupe dot ag.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Not a sponsor, but this is example of polymarket right here.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Only six hundred and fifty four holders, so just be aware.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Market cap right now thirteen billions, So maybe it does
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: go up a little bit more. Do we see it
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: at its all time high around one ninety versus where
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: it's at right now one eighty versus market price or
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: mark price right around one sixty. So I don't know,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: this is something that we're watching. We do participating these
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: just because we like to test these ecosystems, test these
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: products and these tools, and it's kind of fun because
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: you really get experience to what token ised securities are
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: going to look like very soon, and we're going to
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: see all of it available, so it's just a matter
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: of time for sure. Hey, Tim, we know everybody can
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: jump over to Tim Warren Trades. You guys can of
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: course find Tim's channel right there. Let me zoom out
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: of that boom right there. Tim Warren Trades over on YouTube.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Check him out over there, dropping news and insights every day.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: So thanks for coming in today. We appreciate it absolutely.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: Thanks for having me, Paul.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: The link is in the description