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Instant Reaction: Democrats Sweep to Control of Congress in Rebuke of Trump · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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  Speaker 2: Podcasts.
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  Speaker 3: Radio.
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  Speaker 1: News. This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant
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  Speaker 1: reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around
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  Speaker 1: the world.
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  Speaker 4: It's election night in America. I'm Kayleigh Lyons alongside David Gurra.
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  Speaker 4: We've been following the dramatic developments throughout the night. National
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  Speaker 4: Democrats proving the polls were right all along. Sweeping the
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  Speaker 4: House and Senate polls. taking control of Congress for the
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  Speaker 4: final two years of President Trump's second term. Again, both
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  Speaker 4: the House and Senate does look like it will be
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  Speaker 4: under Democratic control come January. But races were won by
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  Speaker 4: Democrats in places that they didn't dream of having a
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  Speaker 4: chance just a few months ago. We are talking deep
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  Speaker 4: red states like Kansas, like South Carolina, in which Democrats
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  Speaker 4: have been able to pull off. Senate victories. You take
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  Speaker 4: those two with the number of other battleground states we
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  Speaker 4: understood coming in.
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  Speaker 5: The night starting off with an emphatic start in Georgia
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  Speaker 5: with John Ossoff winning that race there. But as you mentioned,
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  Speaker 5: South Carolina, really something sort of sent a sort of
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  Speaker 5: charged atmosphere through the room when that happened. That was
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  Speaker 5: unexpected as we consider the legacy that Lindsey Graham had
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  Speaker 5: in the U.S. Senate and the expectation here that his sister,
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  Speaker 5: who was appointed by the president, be able to hold
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  Speaker 5: on to that scene.
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  Speaker 4: And of course, control of Congress is crucially important. But
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  Speaker 4: gubernatorial victories have also gone to Democrats in a number
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  Speaker 4: of critical states, including in Texas and Georgia. Important because
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  Speaker 4: those two are two of the epicenters of the data
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  Speaker 4: center build out in both of the Democratic candidates campaigned
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  Speaker 4: in part on a platform of reining in data centers
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  Speaker 4: or at the very least slowing their development until more
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  Speaker 4: clear rules to protect the communities into which they are going.
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  Speaker 4: are in place. It has major implications, of course, for
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  Speaker 4: something that has been a juice of GDP growth in
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  Speaker 4: the U.S. as of late and may have contributed to
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  Speaker 4: some of the market jitters we saw earlier on this
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  Speaker 4: evening as the results started to come in, though, of course,
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  Speaker 4: futures have recovered somewhat from the losses we initially saw
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  Speaker 4: down just about half a percent now on the NASDAQ 100.
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  Speaker 5: We look at those races in the House that have
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  Speaker 5: been called 215 seats for Democrats, 127 for Republicans, so
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  Speaker 5: 93 that are outstanding here. But of course, the projection
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  Speaker 5: is Democrats are going to substantially control the House of Representatives. Kayleigh,
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  Speaker 5: we heard from Hakeem Jeffries, the presumptive Speaker of the
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  Speaker 5: House earlier tonight, talking about the way in which he
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  Speaker 5: plans to govern going forward. As we've been discussing over
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  Speaker 5: the course of the last hour here, he has a
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  Speaker 5: substantial margin now. It's not going to be a difficult
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  Speaker 5: row for him to hoe here to try to rally
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  Speaker 5: his caucus behind him.
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  Speaker 4: And let's turn now to our political panel who's joining
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  Speaker 4: us here at World Headquarters in New York. Patrick McHenry,
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  Speaker 4: former chair of the House Financial Services Committee and House
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  Speaker 4: Speaker Pro Tem, alongside Adam Hodge, managing director at Bully
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  Speaker 4: Pulpit International and a Democratic strategist. Both of them are
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  Speaker 4: Bloomberg contributors. Troy Jackson is making promises about what he's
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  Speaker 4: going to do when he takes the oath and sits
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  Speaker 4: in this seat in January. Tallarico was doing the same thing.
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  Speaker 4: All of these candidates have big hopes for what happens
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  Speaker 4: a couple months from now. But we still have to
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  Speaker 4: finish out this congressional session before that happens. And Mr. Chairman,
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  Speaker 4: I'll come to you first. This lame duck is going
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  Speaker 4: to be potentially a very ambitious one for Republicans as
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  Speaker 4: they hold on to their last breaths of power, at
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  Speaker 4: least for the time being. What realistically can we expect
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  Speaker 4: to get accomplished in their remaining time?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think they're far less ambitious as the night
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  Speaker 2: is taking it out of them.
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  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 2: And on a night like this, the vibes going back
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  Speaker 2: to D.C. among Republicans who are in the majority in
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  Speaker 2: the House and the Senate. and do have an ambitious agenda,
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  Speaker 2: will be of utter dejection. This is not some marginal outcome.
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  Speaker 2: This is one where your party's been repudiated.
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  Speaker 1: It hurts.
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  Speaker 2: And it's very difficult to think clearly when you are
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  Speaker 2: in pain and grieving. And so what is on the
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  Speaker 2: agenda here for the lame duck is the National Defense
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  Speaker 2: Authorization Act that the Congress has passed. every year since
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  Speaker 2: Truman was president. I think they'll prioritize that. I think
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  Speaker 2: they'll prioritize a continued resolution to punt this into keeping
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  Speaker 2: the government open into next year. Mind you, it was
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  Speaker 2: a fight with the Democratic Party and President Trump that
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  Speaker 2: resulted in the largest government shutdown this Congress. in American history.
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  Speaker 2: So I think we're going to see more of that
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  Speaker 2: next year. But you'll have a CR, National Finance Authorization,
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  Speaker 2: a CR, and perhaps a permitting reform bill that has
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  Speaker 2: been prioritized by soon-to-be whip Brian Schatz.
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  Speaker 5: Adam, you gave your props a minute ago to Hakeem
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  Speaker 5: Jeffries and the focus that these Democratic candidates had. I
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  Speaker 5: noticed that when I interviewed them, affordability was often the
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  Speaker 5: first or second word that came out of each candidate's mouth.
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  Speaker 5: How does he maintain that focus among his caucus going
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  Speaker 5: forward here as he tries to prioritize a policy agenda
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  Speaker 5: for them?
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  Speaker 6: I think the fact that it is a such a
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  Speaker 6: sizable majority and the majority will be made by a
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  Speaker 6: lot of these moderate districts and moderate wins across the country.
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  Speaker 6: you want to protect those incumbents in the sort of
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  Speaker 6: more difficult seats that will then be to hold in 2028.
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  Speaker 6: But there's no question, the focus from the very beginning
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  Speaker 6: was on affordability. From the shutdown, which was about health
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  Speaker 6: care and rising costs for the American people, that has
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  Speaker 6: clearly been an undercurrent, also on top of gas prices.
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  Speaker 6: I think you're going to see them try to focus
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  Speaker 6: on that issue exclusively.
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  Speaker 1: In the lame.
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  Speaker 6: Duck, he will not be surprised if he tries to
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  Speaker 6: actually help cut a little bit of deal to give
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  Speaker 6: him some breathing room to whether that is a debt
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  Speaker 6: limit extension, whether that is a CR that goes a
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  Speaker 6: little bit more time for him to sort of corral
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  Speaker 6: the caucus and get things moving. I think it'd be
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  Speaker 6: in his political interest to try to do that. I
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  Speaker 6: don't know that the Republicans will let him clear the
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  Speaker 6: decks a little bit going forward, but there's no question
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  Speaker 6: that would be in his interest. The defense bill is
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  Speaker 6: a really tough one to see because I think... There
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  Speaker 6: is clearly a backlash to the war and what it
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  Speaker 6: has meant for the Republicans and the cost there. And
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  Speaker 6: you're going to find a lot of voters that that
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  Speaker 6: is the one check that they have. Do you continue
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  Speaker 6: opening the purse to fund this war when it's clearly
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  Speaker 6: backlash against so many dead Republicans in this race? So
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  Speaker 6: I think that's where I think we'll see how things
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  Speaker 6: shake out. But there's no question. Hakeem Jeffries will become speaker,
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  Speaker 6: a historic speaker. with a much more comfortable margin and
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  Speaker 6: a much more comfortable time ahead, the night ahead.
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  Speaker 5: Patrick Henry, very quickly here, do Republicans feel emboldened now
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  Speaker 5: going forward? Are they less under the control of the
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  Speaker 5: president in light of what's happened here? Can they cut
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  Speaker 5: the kind of deals that I was talking about?
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  Speaker 2: No.
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  Speaker 1: No, okay.
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  Speaker 2: And the takeaway here was you're damned if you do,
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  Speaker 2: you're damned if you don't. And so, separating for the president.
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  Speaker 2: So they made the active choice to stick closely with him.
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  Speaker 2: We see the results and everybody, you know, the House
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  Speaker 2: was swept out in a very uniform fashion. The Senate
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  Speaker 2: rode on candidate quality, but was uniform in fashion. This
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  Speaker 2: is a substantial way for the Democratic Party. There is
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  Speaker 2: no way to argue counter to that. What you do
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  Speaker 2: with that is really a telltale sign. Do House Republicans
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  Speaker 2: come in with the leadership elections that they have to
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  Speaker 2: take on in the next couple weeks? Do they make
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  Speaker 2: a change there? Do they double down on the direction
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  Speaker 2: they're going? We'll see that take form in the next week.
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  Speaker 2: But I think all light will be on the incoming
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  Speaker 2: Democratic majority. crowning achievement will be a unified Democratic majority
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  Speaker 2: in the House with his leadership team all going in
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  Speaker 2: without any opposition, which is a substantial statement about unity
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  Speaker 2: within the Democratic Party going into their control of Congress.
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  Speaker 4: Decision Desk HQ projecting that the Democrat Abdul El-Sayed will
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  Speaker 4: win in Michigan's Senate race against Mike Rogers. Of course,
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  Speaker 4: this is not a pickup for Democrats. This is a hold.
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  Speaker 4: This is the seat being vacated by the outgoing Democratic
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  Speaker 4: Senator Gary Peters. That would make him the first Muslim
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  Speaker 4: ever elected as a United States senator. And I raise
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  Speaker 4: that not just because of the historical significance, David, but
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  Speaker 4: because that had been a major issue, part of the
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  Speaker 4: closing argument Mike Rogers was making against him in the
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  Speaker 4: final stretches of this race. But it does seem Abdul
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  Speaker 4: El-Sayed is going to hold on to this seat for Democrats.
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  Speaker 4: All right.
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  Speaker 5: President Trump's MAGA coalition just got vaporized over the course
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  Speaker 5: of the night. That is the view from Ron Brownstein,
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  Speaker 5: who is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He joins us now.
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  Speaker 5: And Ron, I can't resist having you react to the
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  Speaker 5: news that Kayleigh just read on our air a moment
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  Speaker 5: ago here, the fact that Abdul El-Sayed has won this
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  Speaker 5: race in Michigan. I know it is a state to
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  Speaker 5: which you traveled during the course of this campaign. And
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  Speaker 5: I'm just genuinely curious what your reaction is to this news.
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  Speaker 3: Well, you know, over the last 10 years, it has
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  Speaker 3: often seemed that President Trump has repealed all the laws
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  Speaker 3: of political gravity.
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  Speaker 1: But in this election, you know.
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  Speaker 3: I've called it for months the Casablanca election because the
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  Speaker 3: fundamental things apply. And the most fundamental thing in modern
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  Speaker 3: midterm elections is that views of the incumbent president is
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  Speaker 3: the single most important factor.
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  Speaker 1: In the outcome.
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  Speaker 3: And whatever else was going on in Michigan all year,
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  Speaker 3: I have felt that the undertow of Trump disapproval made
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  Speaker 3: it unlikely that Mike Rogers was going to get over
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  Speaker 3: the top. And, you know, we saw in Michigan, I
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  Speaker 3: think it was 60% of voters disapproved.
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  Speaker 1: Let's see, let's see the exact number.
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  Speaker 3: 60% of voters disapproved of Trump's performance in the voter poll.
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  Speaker 1: And 81% of them voted for El-Sayed. And that is
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  Speaker 1: the basic story. That is the story, guys, nationwide.
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  Speaker 3: You know, at five o'clock, when the networks put up
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  Speaker 3: the very first result from the voter poll, which is
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  Speaker 3: kind of the successor to the exit poll, and it
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  Speaker 3: said 62% of voters disapproved.
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  Speaker 1: Of Trump's performance nationwide.
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  Speaker 3: At that point, it really was only a question of
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  Speaker 3: how much, not whether, Republicans would face a resounding defeat.
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  Speaker 3: you know, 84% of those people who disapproved of Trump
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  Speaker 3: voted Democratic, according to the poll for the House. And
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  Speaker 3: we saw in every state that Democrats flipped, every Republican
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  Speaker 3: held Senate seat, the Democrats flipped, a majority of voters
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  Speaker 3: disapproved of Trump, including in states where he won 55%
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  Speaker 3: or the vote or more just two years ago, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas,
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  Speaker 3: South Carolina, that level of disapproval was just an insurmountable
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  Speaker 3: undertow for Republicans.
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  Speaker 4: OK, so if your core thesis here, Ron, is that
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  Speaker 4: this fundamentally was about Trump, do we learn anything from
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  Speaker 4: the fact that a progressive like Al Sayed was able
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  Speaker 4: to win in a purple state of Michigan? Because I'm
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  Speaker 4: sure progressives are going to try to claim, look, we
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  Speaker 4: can do it. This is a winning strategy. Is that
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  Speaker 4: the actual lesson that should be learned?
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  Speaker 1: Well, we're going to have to study the results.
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  Speaker 3: But, you know, it is one thing to win in
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  Speaker 3: a purple state in a moment where the national environment
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  Speaker 3: is like plus 11 or plus 12 for Democrats. And
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  Speaker 3: it's another thing to potentially win it in a more
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  Speaker 3: neutral environment in 2028.
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  Speaker 1: You know, El Sayed didn't really.
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  Speaker 3: Underperform among voters who disapprove of Trump relative to other
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  Speaker 3: Democrats around the country.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, Troy Jackson was similar. kind of situation.
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  Speaker 3: Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota may have underperformed a little, but
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  Speaker 3: they won in an environment when the whole field was
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  Speaker 3: tilted pretty dramatically toward Democrats. Whether that means AOC can
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  Speaker 3: win Michigan in a more even environment in a presidential race,
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  Speaker 3: when more of those culturally conservative non-college voters are likely
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  Speaker 3: to come out, that's a whole different issue. But there's
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  Speaker 3: no question that in this election, disappointment, disenchantment with Trump's
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  Speaker 3: results over his two years was the dominant factor.
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  Speaker 1: And it really outweighed everything else.
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  Speaker 3: In addition to 62 percent of voters disapproving of him,
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  Speaker 3: I'm just struck that in this voter.
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  Speaker 1: Poll, two thirds of America, two thirds of.
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  Speaker 3: Voters said his tariffs and his overall economic agenda did
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  Speaker 3: more to harm than help the economy. And again, that
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  Speaker 3: is a very hard undertow to swim away from if
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  Speaker 3: you're a Republican candidate.
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  Speaker 1: And all of them never tried over the two years.
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  Speaker 3: They left their fingerprints on all the policies that Americans opposed,
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  Speaker 3: the war, the tariffs, the Medicaid cuts, and they lashed
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  Speaker 3: themselves to Trump in a way that made it very
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  Speaker 3: easy for Democrats to tie them to his unpopularity.
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  Speaker 5: Ron, I want to ask you about the white working class.
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  Speaker 5: And I think for the last decade, Democrats have been
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  Speaker 5: tying themselves in knots after the 2016 election, trying to
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  Speaker 5: figure out if they could regain support from that part
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  Speaker 5: of the electorate. Curious how you see that story developing
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  Speaker 5: over the course of tonight. Seems like Republicanism, as it's evolved,
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  Speaker 5: really had kind of intertwined itself with Trumpism. Where are
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  Speaker 5: we in that revolution?
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  Speaker 1: Where are we in that evolution.
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  Speaker 6: I should say?
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  Speaker 5: And so what does it say about the the the
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  Speaker 5: ability of the Democratic Party to get votes back from
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  Speaker 5: the white working class in this country?
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  Speaker 3: On a national basis, guys, they only made modest gains
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  Speaker 3: among white working class voters, but they did make slightly
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  Speaker 3: larger gains. in the Midwest and Plains states that were
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  Speaker 3: at the tipping point here. In Michigan, Kansas, Iowa, they
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  Speaker 3: gained a little more than they did nationally. But non-college whites,
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  Speaker 3: that white working class, is inexorably shrinking as a share
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  Speaker 3: of the electorate, two to three points.
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  Speaker 1: Every four years.
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  Speaker 3: And I thought even more important was what happened tonight
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  Speaker 3: with the non-white working class, because, you know, that demographic
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  Speaker 3: contraction of the key Republican groups, working class whites and
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  Speaker 3: evangelical whites, really puts Republicans in a long-term demographic squeeze.
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  Speaker 3: Trump pointed to a way out of that squeeze in
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  Speaker 3: 2024 when he dramatically improved his performance among non-white voters,
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  Speaker 3: particularly those without college degrees. He won about 40 percent
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  Speaker 3: of them, according to the Pew Research Center, more than
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  Speaker 3: double what he won in 2016. But those gains were
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  Speaker 3: really what were vaporized tonight. And if you look at
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  Speaker 3: the results among Latino voters, Asian-American voters, black men, young men,
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  Speaker 3: all the groups that moved toward Trump in 24, all
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  Speaker 3: of them swung back toward Democrats. They didn't swing all
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  Speaker 3: the way back to where they were in the Obama years.
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  Speaker 3: But essentially what we saw tonight was an erasure of
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  Speaker 3: all the gains Trump made with those groups from 20
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  Speaker 3: to 24 and without improved performance among those growing groups.
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  Speaker 3: That squeeze comes back into play because even though Republicans
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  Speaker 3: remain very strong among those non-college whites, even though they
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  Speaker 3: suffered only modest erosion among them, the longer term reality
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  Speaker 3: is that they are a smaller share of the electorate
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  Speaker 3: every two years.
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  Speaker 1: Than they were before.
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  Speaker 4: Well, so let's look forward two years to 2028, because
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  Speaker 4: that cycle begins tomorrow. Let's be real, Ron. And as
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  Speaker 4: you point to the Obama years, when he was able
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  Speaker 4: to pick up Iowa, and we now have a Democrat
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  Speaker 4: winning state ride, two of them in Iowa in the
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  Speaker 4: Senate and gubernatorial races, when we've also seen Democrats win
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  Speaker 4: in Kansas, once again in Ohio, in South Carolina. How
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  Speaker 4: does this fundamentally reshape in Texas? Yes, how could I
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  Speaker 4: forget the electoral college picture that we will be looking
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  Speaker 4: at two years from now?
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  Speaker 3: I was at Lloyd Benson's ranch with Michael Dukakis in 1980,
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  Speaker 3: the last time a Democrat won a Senate seat. I'm
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: pretty sure it was because of the LBJ law that
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: allowed Benson to run both for vice president and Senate.
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  Speaker 1: Well, look, first of all, even a victory of.
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  Speaker 3: This magnitude in a midterm does not guarantee victory. success
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  Speaker 3: for the party out of the White House in the
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  Speaker 3: presidential race two years later.
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  Speaker 1: But it is also true that every.
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  Speaker 3: Time a president has been as unpopular as Trump is now,
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  Speaker 3: at least since the turn of the 20th century, his
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  Speaker 3: party has lost the race to succeed him in the
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  Speaker 3: White House. I Harry Truman, 1952, Lyndon Johnson, 68, George W. Bush, 06, 08,
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  Speaker 3: excuse me, Biden in 24. In each case, an unpopular president,
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  Speaker 3: when they left the White House, the White House flipped.
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  Speaker 3: So what Trump does in the next two years, I think,
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  Speaker 3: is really significant. If he remains this unpopular in 2028,
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  Speaker 3: The possession arrow will point toward the Democrats, I think,
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  Speaker 3: in the presidential race. It doesn't guarantee they're going to win,
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  Speaker 3: but I think they will have to be favored. And
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  Speaker 3: what you saw, you know, in a presidential year, it
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  Speaker 3: is going to be tougher for Democrats to win some
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  Speaker 3: of these states because, as I said— the electorate will
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  Speaker 3: tilt more toward those culturally conservative working class white voters
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  Speaker 3: who are still leaning pretty heavily Republican. But there is
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  Speaker 3: no guarantee after these results that a Republican in 28
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  Speaker 3: can count on Ohio, Iowa, much less Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
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  Speaker 1: And potentially even Texas. I mean, these were not close
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  Speaker 1: races in Texas.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, Tallarico won going away and the collapse among,
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  Speaker 3: you know, Trump won a majority of Latino voters in
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  Speaker 3: Texas in 2024. All of the exit polls agreed. 69%
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  Speaker 3: disapproved of his performance in tonight's polling. And the vast
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  Speaker 3: majority of Texas Latinos said the ICE enforcement has gone
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: too far. If Texas is on, you know, I wrote
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: during Trump's first term, that the MAGA agenda would be
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: a viable political strategy for Republicans only so long as
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: it still allowed them to hold a diversifying and urbanizing Texas.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: And that is now in question.
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: Ron Brownstein, columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. Thank you very much
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: for your perspective tonight. His column, Trump's MAGA Coalition Just
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: Got Vaporized, available now on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Terminal.
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: And Kayleigh, we're getting some word here from Elon Musk.
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: He's weighing in on these results.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: After spending hundreds of million dollars in these midterms unsuccessfully,
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: he says data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now,
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: followed by guess my election interfering space lasers didn't work
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: this time.