Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - ⚠️BUY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!! #PLTR #SOFI #TSLA #NVDA #ACHR #RGIT #SPY #QQQ + Stock Market News 20 May 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - ⚠️BUY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!! #PLTR #SOFI #TSLA #NVDA #ACHR #RGIT #SPY #QQQ + Stock Market News 20 May 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, and we've just had a momentous event happening in the market the US gets downgraded and the NASDAQ and the S&P drops initially, but then closes in the green.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: What does that mean for the rest of the week, for the rest of the month?
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: What's our trajectory, especially for our favorite tech stocks?
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: If that's what you're thinking about, if that's what you're worried about, you found the right video for yourself.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I'm going to walk you through that here.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: We're going to run through all the major tech stocks.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: I'll try to put in some timestamps as well.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: This is a pre-recorded, because by the time you're watching this, I'll be on a plane off to somewhere else.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I'm still in the south of France.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: As you can see, weather is looking a little cloudy, so we're going to move on.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Tough life.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Look at the stock chart here for the NASDAQ and you see that green bar there, right?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: What does that actually mean?
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Well, look at it on like a five-minute chart and you see, well, the market kicks off.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: It closes here on Friday, you get the news that Moody is Moody and Moody is just downgrading the US.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: So the market tanks.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: I mean really, really, really tanks very significantly, to sort of 510 on the nasdaq, and then the market opens and boom, the buyers are back.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Everyone's like buy the freaking dip.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: This isn't really news.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: We know the us is a banana republic and it's got more debt than anyone except for the japanese.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: So why is this news?
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: And it everyone's buying like like absolute mad.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: So very, very, very strong day for, for for the nasdaq here, and that's a that's a very, very good thing.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Um, so very supportive setup.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: And you see the same thing on the spy, by the way.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: But just you know, when you see a candle like that, it shows, tells you, actually tells you the whole story.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: You actually don't need to zoom in.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: It tells you we opened up the lower fat bit and we closed at the top of the fat bit and then there was just a teeny, tiny sort of tail sticking up and that was the high.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: So we closed almost at the exact high.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: So I'm recording this pre-market we're still very much near the high there and that's a good thing.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: And look, even the volume didn't actually move.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: There wasn't any real panic.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: There wasn't any real panic.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: There wasn't really that much going on.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Now, slightly different story if you look at some of the high risk stocks.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: So what Wall Street perceives as risk, and I think ARKK is always a great representation of what high risk means.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: If you want some risk in your portfolio, buy some ARKK.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: I actually have some ARKW at the moment, but that's a relatively short-term play there.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: And what's that telling you?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Well, we dropped pretty harshly at the opening right, so we went from that close and we opened all the way down here.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: So that's a pretty nasty drop.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: But then even there, within the day, we moved up significantly.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So the dip buyers were out in full force, which is a wonderful thing.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: And if we look at some of our favorite tech stocks here in Trade Vision, it's the software I'm using Well, before we look at tech stocks, we should look at always fear, fear and panic right.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So we went up not a lot, and as I'm recording this, the VIX trades almost 24 hours as futures.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So the market's already open here and we're up only 1.5%.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: But we went all the way up to 20, basically just below it and then we came back down Again.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: That's very, very important.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: We didn't take out the recent highs Thunder just kicked off here Another reason to change locations.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: And so, yeah, again, pretty, pretty positive.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: We're still at like 18, not really a big deal.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: So therefore, no panic, no panic there, right?
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So let's look into some of our favorite tech stocks here, like nvidia similar story we drop a little bit, we come back up.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: That's actually good, you know why?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Why is that good?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Because it actually builds support, and that's how the market works.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: The market does not go up in a straight line, right?
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: You want this kind of support, you want to do a little bit of this, a little bit of this, and then at some point, you're much more likely to go up than down, and these patterns are what makes people wealthy or broke.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: If you don't understand the patterns, you have the mercy of them.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: You don't know what the heck's going on and you're just buying out of emotion.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: You're just like, oh, I'm going to buy the dip.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: It's always worked until it doesn't.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So people get into this false confidence of whatever's been happening the last six months or 12 months or 24 months is the new rule, but it isn't.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: And one of the beautiful things I've learned from my mentors, who've done this for like 20, 30, 40 years longer than me is, is that they have seen other patterns and they'll remember what happened in the 90s or in the 80s and therefore they have a different warning sign, because they felt some pain in the 80s and 90s and therefore they understand what's going on.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: And that's why I'm a huge fan of learning from people with more experience and I'm going to share with you not just the rule book, but also a lot of that experience.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: If you wish and if you actually want to get to financial freedom and you actually want to retire earlier and you want to take more control of your money and not let the market be in control or Trump's latest tweet but actually you be in control then, if that would feel good to you, come and join me on Thursday.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: I'm going to run a live webinar after our live stream here on YouTube.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: It's in a private space felixfriendsorg slash webinar and you can sign up for free or there's still spots.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: If you're going to do that, let me know down below.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Just put free in the chat, and I know that you're going to be one of the guys we're going to take to freedom and it's literally.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: It's just marvelous when you know what to set up, where to set up, and you know what to buy and when to buy it, and you know how to set up the exit in an automated fashion, life becomes a heck of a lot more pleasant.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: So that's really the goal here.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: We should also look at apple, just because it's such a big stock still and apple to me is still not looking that good, but it's clinging on for dear life to some sort of support.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: That yellow line is the 50-day moving average line.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: We're basically at it now.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: The candle itself again is quite bullish, because when you get candles like this that look like a hammer, well, why is that a good thing?
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Because, again, it means that we went all the way down to the bottom here and then we bought our wayself all the way back up.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: So it's a lot of dip buying, which again indicates that there is support there for that stock.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: So if you see those hammer candles, that's usually a good thing.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Here was another one.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Right, there's a red hammer candle still.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: The next day we actually closed green.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: So this looks somewhat supportive.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: But I have some structural issues with Apple.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I just think fundamentally I don't know which way they're going, what they're up to.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: I kind of lack a bit of innovation there and also tariffs could still hit them pretty hard, right.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not a huge fan of Apple there, although hopefully it'll recover with the tax breaks coming and other videos on that in a little while.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: If we look at something like a Tesla, I'd actually close down 2.2% and again you can look at that and you go, oh, that's really bad.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: No-transcript are lovely people, not all of them.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: So what else we look at?
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: We love to get palantir here, um, and does that look good?
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Does that look bad?
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Well, again, it was a little pullback, two and a half percent.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: That's a small move for a stock like palantir.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So is the the everything coming down?
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Well, what's bad about it is that we did a lower low than the last couple of days, but we didn't drop that low.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: We know it's like the recent highs, basically, are kicking in a support here.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: This is still a very bullish pattern right now.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you to therefore run out and buy it, but it's you know it's looking good.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Actually, I wouldn't mind a little bit of a consolidation, a little bit of a pullback, so you could maybe buy some more of that here.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: If we go into the tech space, the fintech space so far just about saved the bacon by closing.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Do you see that purple line there, that one?
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: That's the 150-day moving average line right.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: So that's in purple there, the 150.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: And we managed to just about close above it and that's very important psychologically for the market to be like okay, this is still on an uptrend and you're seeing the 50-day moving average line down here.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: It's starting to really slope up.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: That's good.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So, again, it's a consolidation pattern.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: It isn't like a run out and buy me now pattern, but it's positive on a bad news day Hims and hers, not theirs and them, for some reason Very discriminatory, don't you think?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: So what's going on there?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Well, dropped three and a half percent.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: But look at the sizes of the candles on hymns.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Hymns is a beast that is insanely volatile.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Like a normal candle on hymns is like a 10 move.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: So that dropping three and a half percent after this rally and I mean this rally was, uh, you know, 156% up you'd expect a pullback and the pullback could be 20, 30, 40, 50, 60%, you know, and that's just to be expected.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: So the only issue here with hymns and hymns that's bearish is that the recent high was higher than the current high and you get hay fever.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I get a little bit of hay fever, especially before it rains sort of pushes it all down and then the throat gets scratchy.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Another reason to change locations.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: So we're going to get rained on, I think we might.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: So again, bullish setup it's a little extended, so I would not be personally, I would not be buying here.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: If we exceed the previous high, then I would buy and you might again think well, felix, why the heck would you want to pay more when you could pay less?
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Well, it's the difference between I have this long-term conviction disease about the stock and I just follow rules.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: So to me this is an extended thing.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: If we missed it, we missed it, it doesn't matter.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Like I literally found something like 60 buy opportunities on Sunday, like literally 60.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: So HIMSS wasn't on, that Doesn't matter.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: We move on and we get something else.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Now what I'm really liking is that stocks like Archer yeah, they dropped, but again, they didn't drop that hard.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: We didn't close at the very bottom of the day.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: It's just a healthy pullback.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: And Archer was on my buy list, but only on a pullback.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Well, guess what?
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: We got ourselves a pullback.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Yay, doesn't mean you need to run out and get it, but you see what I'm saying.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Now, what about gold stocks?
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Did they do their job?
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Absolutely so, gold stocks like this one here, groi, which is one I've got in my portfolio, is up seven percent and it was not doing a lot.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: So the last couple of days it wasn't doing very much.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: A few people were messaging me and going felix, your gold picks suck.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: I'm like, if your time frame is four days, um, I don't know what to do with you.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna look at that and, and you know, we basically that yellow line there which I'm drawing it in green, that's the 50-day moving average line, that's the 50-day MA very, very important line, and we basically bounced off that once, twice, three times, four times a lady and that's very, very healthy and that's a nice pullback and that's the sort of thing that gives us some offset, which means some of our portfolio was green yesterday, some of it portfolio was green yesterday, some of us red, and that's good and that's what we want.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: We don't want to be all in on just the one thing, because then bad things happen on that day.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: So overall, this looks very, very supportive.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: So what do I watch out for?
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Well, ultimately, if there's just one thing you want to watch, it's watch the VIX.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: You get really, really big moves on the VIX up, it's bad.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: If it sort of stays flattish on the day, that's good.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: If it comes down, it's brilliant.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: So that's really all we need to look at.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: So for me, this was a test of the strength of this bull market, and I was surprised by the strength of it, to be honest with you, and I'm very, very pleasantly surprised by the strength of it Now.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Did I change anything yesterday?
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: No, some people say to me me, oh, do you lower your stops when the market goes down?
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Like no, that would be, that would be like the worst thing to do.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So gotta be prepared for bumps.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: There be bumps along the road, especially with this uh administration in the us.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: It's a bumpy one and they're beautiful opportunities for us because we can buy things on the dip if they're good, if they still look, comply with the rules and there'll be more defensive plays like defensive stocks, utilities, gold and so on.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: That'll make us money on those days.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: And then, on days where everything goes up, the tech stock will make us money.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, if they pull off what they're going to pull off tax cuts and so on, I don't know what happens to the deficit in the long run, but for the short term it should be a win for us.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: But just bear in mind, these tariff talks are important.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: So in about 80 days or so, this is going to come back.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: A little bit sooner than that, the market is forward looking, so it'll be interesting to see what happens there, but in the meantime, we're going to take all the money we can get.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: We, of course, have a stop loss on every single position, and if you want to learn how that whole framework works because it's brilliant, it's just amazing.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: I couldn't believe it.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: Why doesn't everybody know this?
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Like, why would we teach people?
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: That's what Wall Street's thinking?
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: The Blackstone CEO is like why would I tell people what I'm doing?
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to tell them some cryptic answer.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to give you cryptic answers.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you the actual rules on Thursdays.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So come and join me.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg.