Latest / Simply Bitcoin / You Wont believe what JP Morgan Says WILL Drive Bitcoins NEXT MOVE! | EP 1500
Transcript
- 0:02JP Morgan just made an interesting announcement.
- 0:06Well, it's really more of kind of like a report and analysis
- 0:08about Bitcoin, gold and MicroStrategy.
- 0:11They highlighted that MSTR or strategy is on track to buy $30
- 0:16billion of Bitcoin this year, more than they bought in each of
- 0:21the past two years. But what's really interesting is
- 0:25that they highlight that the money pouring out of the gold
- 0:28ETF is the signal to explain this structural shift.
- 0:32This really begs the question, what is JP Morgan seeing behind
- 0:36closed doors? And for all of us here, how much
- 0:40of gold's 33? Well, it's like 30, two, 8.
- 0:44So $33 trillion market cap will flow into Bitcoin.
- 0:50We have been hearing for AI don't know years at this point
- 0:55that we will one day see the great rotation, the great gold
- 0:59revaluation, money flowing from gold into Bitcoin.
- 1:02And we have noticed that in times of Bitcoin and gold moving
- 1:08that they kind of move in inverse.
- 1:10Gold will pump, Bitcoin might be a little sluggish, and then once
- 1:15gold has its blow off top, that money rotates into Bitcoin.
- 1:20Well, for the last couple of weeks and months, we've all been
- 1:23wondering, obviously, as I keep mentioning, what we saw in 2025
- 1:28in regards to gold and how much capital actually flowed into
- 1:30gold was very interesting. In my opinion, does poke a lot
- 1:34of holes in the idea that, oh, Bitcoin's such a big market cap
- 1:37now, it's not going to be able to move as high and as far as we
- 1:41all believe. Well, it seems as if we are
- 1:46starting to see that investors are potentially not as
- 1:51interested in gold as they are in Bitcoin.
- 1:54And if that ramps up, what are the implications of this?
- 1:57Right? So let me break down this
- 1:59report. So it was recorded or rather
- 2:01reported by the block here. There's actually two stories
- 2:05from the block coming from the same analysis, but I want to
- 2:09start with the big story here, which is this idea of basically
- 2:14JP Morgan saying, and here's the headline, Bitcoin is gaining
- 2:17over gold as the basement trade after Iran conflict, which is
- 2:22what we've been telling you guys.
- 2:23Literally, Bitcoin has been the best performing thing in
- 2:28everyone's portfolio since the start of the war in February or
- 2:32the end of February. Now when this initially
- 2:36happened. I've been mentioning this on the
- 2:38show of how interesting it was to me to watch Bitcoin react
- 2:44very positively in the face of this operation, epic fury or war
- 2:49or mission, whatever they're calling it these days.
- 2:53And the fact that Bitcoin didn't crash when we started another
- 2:56war, a war of choice in the Middle East.
- 3:00I thought that was huge signal. And you guys in the chat were
- 3:04like making fun of me. They're like, you know,
- 3:06Bitcoin's acting resilient right now.
- 3:08It's still at 60 K. You know, it can't break 70.
- 3:11I'm like, yeah, but the point is it didn't drop.
- 3:15And remember, I've said it a couple of weeks ago, I forget on
- 3:19what show exactly. And on the side note, dude, 1500
- 3:23episodes today, our 1500 show. It's crazy to me.
- 3:26But anyway, anyway, I, I got side, I got sidetracked.
- 3:32We brought up the idea on the show that what what if the
- 3:38theory or our expectation of what Bitcoin decoupling from
- 3:43other markets was wrong? What if we didn't fully realize
- 3:48what that would look like? What if what we're seeing right
- 3:51now is Bitcoin decoupling from other markets?
- 3:54While everything seems to be going down well at recently, the
- 3:59stock market's absolutely going huge.
- 4:01It's breaking all time highs, basically.
- 4:04But Bitcoin should, in theory, either drop 1st and then recover
- 4:10harder and faster. Wait, pause.
- 4:14But what if Bitcoin decoupling is the idea that Bitcoin doesn't
- 4:20drop as hard as everything? Again, pause.
- 4:24Are we seeing this happen right now?
- 4:25Are we really seeing investors, I wouldn't say lose faith in
- 4:29gold, but start to look at Bitcoin as something that they
- 4:35actually need to add to their portfolio?
- 4:37Again, I've been bringing you guys a different reports from
- 4:40the institutions essentially saying like if you just add 3%
- 4:43of Bitcoin into your portfolio, it's going to outperform the
- 4:48standard 6040 portfolio. It's going to really the ROI of
- 4:53just adding a little bit of Bitcoin fundamentally shifts how
- 4:57your portfolio is going to act. Now if more people start waking
- 5:01up to the idea that I need to add more Bitcoin versus gold,
- 5:04stocks, treasuries, then the fundamental thesis, the
- 5:10fundamental calculation starts to shift in investors minds.
- 5:14That's what I've been telling you guys on the show.
- 5:16Well, it seems like JP Morgan, the analyst over at JP Morgan,
- 5:21are starting to say something very similar.
- 5:24So let's break down this report real quick for you guys 'cause
- 5:27there is some interesting stuff here.
- 5:29And here's the quick takeaways. Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows
- 5:33for a third straight month, while gold ETFs are still
- 5:36struggling to recover outflows after the Iran conflict.
- 5:40This and other market indicators suggest investors are
- 5:43increasingly choosing Bitcoin over gold as a debasement trade.
- 5:49I repeat, it suggests that investors are increasingly
- 5:53choosing Bitcoin over gold in the debasement trade.
- 5:58We are currently every single one of us in a debasement trade.
- 6:02If you have capital, if you're looking at markets right now, if
- 6:06you're looking to preserve your wealth, then you are currently
- 6:10in the debasement trade. We're all watching what's going
- 6:13on it with Fiat currencies, with the geopolitical mess in the
- 6:17Middle East, and everyone is looking at how do I position
- 6:22myself so I don't lose my wealth?
- 6:26It's a fundamental shift. You know, I know a lot of us bit
- 6:28corners have, you know, this put all our eggs in one basket view
- 6:33where we we're just trying to accumulate wealth.
- 6:35But once you get to the wealth accumulation, once you have a
- 6:38little nest egg, the calculations change.
- 6:41And you're looking at this like, OK, how do I preserve my wealth?
- 6:44What is the fastest race in the horse?
- 6:47It looks like outside of just the Bitcoin space.
- 6:50Wait, what did I say? Fastest race, fastest horse in
- 6:53the race? I do that constantly.
- 6:57Well, it looks like investors are starting to at the very
- 7:00least wake up to the Bitcoin thesis that we've been saying
- 7:05for a long time. So again, sorry for the
- 7:07rambling. Let me let me break this down a
- 7:09little more. So again, Bitcoin is gaining
- 7:11over gold as a debasement trade after the Iran conflict as
- 7:15Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract inflows while gold ETFs struggle
- 7:20to recover outflows. Bitcoin ETFs again have seen
- 7:24inflows for three straight months.
- 7:26And the JP Morgan analysts, again for, forgive Me, Nicholas
- 7:31or Nicholas I can't even say his first name, sent in a report
- 7:35that gold ETFs, meanwhile, are struggling to recover the
- 7:38outflows they saw in March when the Iran conflict erupted.
- 7:42This is the key take away. This suggests retail investors
- 7:46are choosing Bitcoin over gold as a debasement trade since the
- 7:49start of the conflict. Which quote?
- 7:53The debasement trade rotates from gold to Bitcoin.
- 7:56The debasement trade refers to investors, of course, buying
- 7:59assets like gold or Bitcoin to protect against weakening Fiat
- 8:02currencies, especially during geopolitical tensions or
- 8:05inflation concerns. Is this not the Bitcoin thesis
- 8:11that we as Bitcoiners have been saying for over a decade that at
- 8:16a certain point the average investor is going to wake up to
- 8:20the fact that Bitcoin is the best hard money trade in the
- 8:24game and further best performing asset since its since its
- 8:27inception. It outside you know the outsize
- 8:32returns of adding Bitcoin to your portfolio cannot be ignored
- 8:36after a certain point, once everyone wakes up to the fact
- 8:39that Fiat dollars are melting ice cubes in your hand, you
- 8:43might want to get some Bitcoin. Things will start to accelerate.
- 8:47Well, it looks like we are seeing the beginning of that
- 8:49because of gold ETF flows. They're struggling right now.
- 8:54Bitcoin ETF flows are going extremely hard and that does add
- 8:58to the same idea that I'm pretty sure I brought it up yesterday,
- 9:01at least maybe in passing. Even though we've been in a
- 9:05quote crypto winter the last couple of months, The
- 9:09institutional ETF holder is not being scared away.
- 9:15That was one of the theories that a lot of Bitcoiners had.
- 9:17It's like, OK, hey, the institutions are coming.
- 9:20The institutions are here, but they're not going to be diamond
- 9:23handed hodlers of last resort. Well, the data is showing us
- 9:28something different that the investor or you know, you guys
- 9:33know, I always, I always kind of make fun of the boomers out
- 9:36there, not the Bitcoin boomers, but you know, I, I, I do have
- 9:39the millennial Rage Against the boomers and I and I'm trying to
- 9:42work on that. But what we've seen from the ETF
- 9:45investor in Bitcoin is the shake out here has not scared them.
- 9:51In fact, they have been adding to their portfolio positions.
- 9:56Maybe this idea is catching on, maybe this is the beginning of
- 10:00it. And of course, as this
- 10:03compounds, as this accelerates, they're going to continue to buy
- 10:07and not only continue to buy, but they're going to expand
- 10:10their portfolio allocations to Bitcoin anyways.
- 10:12Moving further, I did mention strategy was added in here.
- 10:16So we go Bitcoin buying has not been limited to retail investors
- 10:20through ETS. JP Morgan's positioning proxies
- 10:23based on CME Bitcoin futures and offshore perpetual futures have
- 10:27also been making new highs, suggesting institutional
- 10:31investors have increased exposure as well.
- 10:35So it's not just me looking at the data and making this up.
- 10:38We have some of the best market analysts out there saying the
- 10:42same thing, looking at the same stuff and being like, this is
- 10:45what it's suggesting. So, you know, maybe I, maybe I,
- 10:49maybe just a YouTube, but at least our analysis is
- 10:53directionally correct. And further, not even just
- 10:55directionally correct. It's on the mark anyways.
- 10:58The analysts also said momentum signals for Bitcoin and gold,
- 11:01used as proxies for positioning by momentum traders such as
- 11:04commodity trading advisors, have rebounded for Bitcoin since the
- 11:08start of the Iran conflict. And this is where it does get
- 11:11very interesting because investors Bitcoin buying is also
- 11:15happening indirectly through Michael Saylor Strategy, whose
- 11:19ownership is almost equally split between retail and
- 11:22institutional. Investor strategy remains the
- 11:25largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally and has been
- 11:28accumulating Bitcoin at a faster pace this year.
- 11:32And this is where you get the news that they are projecting
- 11:35that sailor or strategy or the retail institutional investors
- 11:40in strategy might accumulate more Bitcoin through strategy
- 11:45than they have in the past two years.
- 11:47So let me pop over to that article where they break it
- 11:50down. This one's titled JP Morgan says
- 11:52Strategy's Bitcoin buying could reach 30 billion this year at
- 11:55current price. The big caveat is obviously at
- 11:58current price. So here's the chart that they're
- 12:01showing. You can see micro strategies,
- 12:04bitcoins purchases each year. You can see 2024 around around
- 12:1122 billion. Again in 2025 roughly around 22
- 12:16billion as well. And in the first quarter bought
- 12:21about what 7 billion Q2 obviously not over.
- 12:25They're estimating it'll get up to maybe 10 billion.
- 12:28And then they're going to see that this huge, you know
- 12:32estimate of what's going to happen towards the year end is
- 12:35going to blow out every year of strategies buying.
- 12:38It's essentially saying that strategies accumulation is going
- 12:43to accelerate. And have I not been saying that
- 12:47for a minute that look, what is super interesting, what is
- 12:51actually a phenomenon happening right now is that one single
- 12:57buyer in the market is not only basically buying up all the
- 13:01daily mind Bitcoin for weeks in advance, but that demand is also
- 13:07accelerating into that product, which is fundamentally different
- 13:13than we've seen in the past. Saylor himself is buying, well,
- 13:18obviously it's not himself. His company 1 Entity Strategy is
- 13:22buying more Bitcoin than everyone out there and further
- 13:27accelerating the amount of Bitcoin buying that he's done in
- 13:30the past two years. And you don't think that that's
- 13:33going to fundamentally change what's going on when all the
- 13:36dynamics around Bitcoin based on the institutions in Wall
- 13:40Street's coming in, based on the institutional investor and maybe
- 13:44the more savvy retail investor is starting to look at Bitcoin
- 13:48as the tool to mitigate the debasement trade effects.
- 13:54As I've been saying for a long time, all it really takes,
- 13:57actually, I'm not the only one, everyone's been saying this.
- 13:59All it really takes is 1 investor with very high
- 14:03conviction to fundamentally shift what the Bitcoin price is
- 14:08going to do, where we are going this year, next year, the next
- 14:12few years. And it seems like that one
- 14:15investor obviously has been Sailor for a while now.
- 14:18If it's accelerating even more, it could get very interesting
- 14:23here. I've been saying for the last
- 14:25couple of days, well, actually maybe weeks, speculating that it
- 14:29seems like Sailor may have single handedly saved us from
- 14:32the 40K gulags. And now even JP Morgan analysts
- 14:37are out there is like, look, he might not only be saving us, but
- 14:40he's also opening up these products and broadening the
- 14:45market of capital that's going to flow into Bitcoin.
- 14:49It's very, very interesting just to watch Sailor alone.
- 14:52And and obviously in the face of this week, you know, Sailor has
- 14:57been getting a lot of heat because of the the kind of
- 15:00narrative shift from never sell your Bitcoin to, you know, buy
- 15:04more Bitcoin than you sell doesn't sound as good.
- 15:08But in the context of how much Bitcoin he's going to buy, you
- 15:12know, taking a little bit off the top really doesn't affect
- 15:15the bottom line here. But again, the main idea here is
- 15:20that Bitcoin is picking up in the debasement trade perspective
- 15:25conversation. If we see more capital flow out
- 15:29of gold, if the gold ETFs continue to struggle and that
- 15:34capital flows into Bitcoin, then the great revaluation, the great
- 15:40rotation that Bitcoiners have been talking about, obviously it
- 15:44doesn't happen all at once. It builds a compound on itself.
- 15:48But it seems like the Wall Street analysts are starting to
- 15:52catch on to this idea. They're starting to say, hey,
- 15:54look, the data is showing us people are losing faith in gold
- 15:58and they want an alternative. And that alternative might be
- 16:00Bitcoin. Now, before I did the show and
- 16:03before I pass it over to you, Nico, I was having this thought
- 16:06experiment. I was talking with Luke for a
- 16:07little bit. And I'm like, you know, in, in
- 16:11context of this article, just to do a thought experiment, what
- 16:19would a world look like if Bitcoin overtook gold's market
- 16:25cap 30, We'll go $30 trillion. And then gold basically revalued
- 16:31down towards just the utility use of gold.
- 16:36And I was using the market cap of, of silver, which is roughly
- 16:39again rounding up around $5 trillion.
- 16:43That would be maybe gold is, I don't know, lower and maybe 7
- 16:48trillion, maybe higher and 10 trillion.
- 16:51I don't know what the utility market cap of gold would be.
- 16:56But if gold lost 20 trillion because people aren't using it
- 17:00anymore as a monetary monetary value.
- 17:04I think. That's a I'm just saying that's
- 17:06a crazy world to to imagine. Look.
- 17:09The first of all, great takes on everything.
- 17:12Second of all, look, if and when Bitcoin reaches the current
- 17:19market cap of gold, that'd be $1.7 million per coin.
- 17:23That's the base thesis of Bitcoin, right?
- 17:27I think we got disconnected for a little bit.
- 17:29There we go. I think we're back.
- 17:30That's yeah, yeah, we're having it's, it's acting up on me
- 17:33today. That's the base case of Bitcoin.
- 17:36The base case of Bitcoin is, can Bitcoin overtake the market cap
- 17:42of gold? But that's just the base case.
- 17:45That's the base case. I, I, I think that if Bitcoin is
- 17:48below that, I, I wouldn't call Bitcoin, I wouldn't go as far as
- 17:52calling Bitcoin a failure, but I think it would definitely
- 17:55underperform to a lot of people's expectations.
- 17:58Now if Bitcoin reaches that market cap of gold, that would
- 18:01be $1.7 million per Bitcoin. Let me say that again, $1.7
- 18:09million per coin. Now going back to Opti's, Opti's
- 18:14points in the beginning, yes, this cycle looks like AII.
- 18:20Hate to say this time is different.
- 18:22Now we're new. Now we're new every.
- 18:23Single time that happens, you know bad things happen but.
- 18:28Price just crashed. But what I'm going to continue
- 18:31to say what I've been saying, you know, for the last couple
- 18:35weeks now, really since we did this recovery from 60K to the
- 18:3980K region, if we channel in these levels for the next three
- 18:46to four months, the sky is the effing limit because that tells
- 18:53me that we most likely bottomed out.
- 18:56And again, what is the thesis here?
- 18:58What is the case here as to why that could be the case?
- 19:01Well, this cycle is different in in regards to we never had a
- 19:07euphoric blow off top. So if you never had a euphoric
- 19:10blow off top, does that mean you're going to have an 80
- 19:14percent, 70% correction? Those 80 to 7080 to 70%
- 19:19corrections come from retail selling and retail panicking
- 19:26out. You never had that influx.
- 19:29You had that influx maybe in the treasury companies, but you
- 19:32really never had that influx in the you never had that influx in
- 19:38the in spot Bitcoin price. So if you never had that
- 19:42euphoric top, are you going to have this massacre of a Bitcoin
- 19:47crash? You know that that's a thought
- 19:49that I want to plan in your guys minds.
- 19:52We don't know we're going to find out over the summer, the
- 19:55famous meme sell in May and then go away.
- 19:58We're going to find out in May, June and July if Bitcoin is able
- 20:04to hold these levels, is Bitcoin able to hold the 80 and 60 K
- 20:08levels? If Bitcoin is able to do that,
- 20:11then again I think we hit bottom and I and if we hit bottom,
- 20:17where else is there to go from the bottom to what to going up
- 20:22so. That's where I'm I'm standing
- 20:24there. But yeah, looping all of this in
- 20:27Opti, I remember one of the things that Michael Saylor said
- 20:30in a very famous spaces that he recorded many years ago.
- 20:34I think this was back in 2022. He said that there was three
- 20:38things that needed to happen in order for Bitcoin to hit
- 20:40$5,000,000 per coin. He said it was the approval of
- 20:44the spot Bitcoin ETF that happened in January of 2024.
- 20:48Second thing was the change in the fasby accounting rules that
- 20:51happened as well. And the third thing that is
- 20:54happening this year was the ability for banks to start to
- 21:00custody Bitcoin. And ladies and gentlemen, that
- 21:03is happening as well. So this bear market, which
- 21:08again, bear markets are for building what you're seeing is
- 21:12the institutional adoption of Bitcoin in full force.
- 21:18And it's extremely exciting times ahead.
- 21:22I can't emphasize that enough. So let's see what happens in the
- 21:25next three months. Let's see if the bears are right
- 21:28or let's see if the bulls are right.
- 21:30I got to say I'm kind of in the middle.
- 21:32I'm I, I'm, I, I went from a full bear, wow fence sitting
- 21:36full bear type, full bear type of scenario to now I'm feeling
- 21:42definitely a lot more bullish than I was.
- 21:45It's over. I was feeling, you know, a
- 21:47couple weeks ago, a month ago when we were really in the
- 21:51gulags in that 60K region. So let's see if we can go up
- 21:55from here. Let's see what happens.
- 21:58I still think that there could be a capitulation event.
- 22:01There could be a bottoming out event.
- 22:03But let's see. The jury is out, ladies and
- 22:05gentlemen. Coiled Spring Coiled spring
- 22:07event the. Jury is out and I I kind of want
- 22:10to opt if you can set this up while I keep talking.
- 22:14Let's release a poll to ask the audience what they think.
- 22:18Oh, October. Let's get let's, let's get a
- 22:20sense of what the crowd thinks. What?
- 22:22What's the poll? What's the poll?
- 22:23Do you think Bitcoin has bottomed out yet?
- 22:27Also shout out to the Rumble audience coming in strong like
- 22:30always. Shout out to the YouTube
- 22:32audience. Of course, shout out to the
- 22:33primal audience, the nostril audience, and of course shout
- 22:36out to the X audience as well. If you guys are enjoying the
- 22:39show so far, make sure to smash that like button.
- 22:42We got a very special guest. We we have a very special show
- 22:45for you guys today. We have the one and only Frank
- 22:48Holmes AKA Bulldog Holmes joining us on the show later
- 22:52today, which is going to be fantastic.
- 22:55Frank Holmes is the executive chairman of Hive Digital
- 22:58Technologies, so really looking forward to that.
- 23:01And of course, we got some updates for you guys regarding
- 23:04the Clarity Act. Ladies and gentlemen, the Paul
- 23:08Paul market odds have it at a 76% chance of passing.
- 23:13We played you guys videos earlier on in the week of
- 23:16Democratic senators saying we must support the Clarity Act.
- 23:19And I told you guys how important that was because the
- 23:23Republicans only hold 53 Senate seats.
- 23:27The Clarity Act needs at least 60 votes in the Senate, meaning
- 23:30there needs to be bipartisan support of the bill.
- 23:34And it looks like it's making progress.
- 23:37It looks like this bill might get passed by Trump's deadline,
- 23:41which the White House set, which was July 4th, which again would
- 23:44be very symbolic. That would be the 250th
- 23:47anniversary of the United States of America.
- 23:51This is a country that was founded on the ideas of freedom,
- 23:55right? So how symbolic would that be?
- 23:58First pro Bitcoin president almost assassinated 3 times
- 24:02passing the first real, I mean, I can't just say Bitcoin, but
- 24:08first real pro Bitcoin slash crypto bill in the US, the
- 24:14legislative process. So that is incredibly exciting.
- 24:17We'll stay on top of all of that, ladies and gentlemen.
- 24:20But anyways, guys, it's going to be a great show.
- 24:22We have tons to talk about today.
- 24:24Like I said, let's start the show.
- 24:26We're going to be right back in just a bit.
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- 27:16At the time of recording, Bitcoin price is $79,800 sats
- 27:20per dollar 1253 block height 948,487 Realized monetary
- 27:26inflation .83% market cap 1.6 trillion Bitcoin versus gold
- 27:31market cap 5.32% Percentage issued 95.36%, declined from all
- 27:37time high -36.7%. And the grand scheme of things,
- 27:43we are just getting the party started.
- 27:45If you're buying Bitcoin right now, you're getting it at a 36%
- 27:48again 36% discount, which is a pretty big discount.
- 27:53Anyways, update on the Clarity Act, ladies and gentlemen.
- 27:57It's now at a 69% chance of passing into law in 2026.
- 28:05There's $636,000 worth of volume, ladies and gentlemen,
- 28:11$636,000. That's how much money is on the
- 28:16line. People are placing bets about
- 28:18whether this is going to get passed into law.
- 28:20It seems like there is real momentum.
- 28:22Again, you had a Democratic senator go on video and say,
- 28:25hey, listen, I like this thing. And that would be absolutely
- 28:29massive for the industry. So let's see if the Clarity Act
- 28:34gets signed into law. It seems like the betting odds
- 28:37markets are, you know, it was higher than yesterday.
- 28:40So things are moving along. I do have a post from the
- 28:44Bitcoin senator, Senator Cynthia Lummes.
- 28:47The American people have made it clear America should lead the
- 28:51way on digital assets. Let's secure our financial
- 28:54future for generations to come. Let's get clarity done now.
- 28:59And she again is showing a hair. I think it's a Harris poll.
- 29:04There is bipartisan support for Clarity Act and again support
- 29:09across party lines. 55% of Democrats, Democrat voters
- 29:14better said, support it. 58% of Republican voters support it,
- 29:19the rest are neutral and only 12% of Democrat voters oppose
- 29:24it. Only 12% of Republican voters
- 29:27oppose it and only 10% of independents oppose it.
- 29:32And the only part where the independents, again, are, are
- 29:34not in line with the Democrats or the GOP are only 42% of
- 29:39independent voters support the Clarity Act.
- 29:42And my commentary on this is I don't think a lot of people even
- 29:46know what the Clarity Act is. I don't think a lot of people
- 29:49know and fully appreciate what Bitcoin is and what Bitcoin can
- 29:54do for the United States economy, for what Bitcoin can do
- 29:57for the world, right. So again, you know, this the,
- 30:01the country was, you know, founded as a Republic.
- 30:04So you'd have a representative that was supposed to, you know,
- 30:06represent your interest in DC. They're the ones that are
- 30:09supposed to be, you know, taking all of this into consideration.
- 30:13But it seems like there is momentum on the Clarity Act
- 30:16passing in 2026. And again, this would be
- 30:19extremely bullish. I think we would have a price
- 30:21jump just by this pressing. We've gotten to the point where
- 30:25back in 20, 2016, 2017, when me and Opti started doing this, it
- 30:31would like any type of news would pump the price like 50%.
- 30:37We've got into such a big market cap that the only way the price
- 30:42is going to pump is if you have substantial news.
- 30:44And what are the, what is that type of substantial news?
- 30:47It would be the United States government announcing something
- 30:51about a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
- 30:53That would be AB would be something like the Clarity Act
- 30:58passing because again, this is going it's in the name.
- 31:01This would create a lot of regulatory clarity for a lot of
- 31:06businesses, especially big businesses in the United States
- 31:10regarding digital assets. It would this, this is what
- 31:14would take it across the finish line, right?
- 31:17So again, I think this would definitely be very bullish from
- 31:21a price action perspective. I think the media, the second
- 31:24this gets passed, we're going to get a price pump.
- 31:26So yeah, I mean, I, I'm, I'm, I'm very excited for, you know,
- 31:31the next three months, I think it's going to be really
- 31:33revealing. Is the four year cycle finally
- 31:36over? Does news even bump up the price
- 31:39anymore? I remember when Michael Saylor
- 31:42first started announcing his smash buys Opti and I would be
- 31:46able to craft entire shows off of that.
- 31:48The price would move just off of that.
- 31:51Now at this point, Michael Saylor buying, you know, 10s of
- 31:55millions, hundreds of millions of dollars of.
- 31:57The news. Cycle doesn't care about that
- 31:59anymore the the price. Doesn't even move.
- 32:02Right. You could say the price at least
- 32:04doesn't go down when that happens and even sometimes it
- 32:07still goes down. But I think that this type of
- 32:10news would be big enough where it would give confidence in the
- 32:15markets that Bitcoin is here to stay.
- 32:18This would stop a potential operation choke .3 point O from
- 32:23happening in 20-30, right? This, this is the type of thing
- 32:28that would kind of stop that because again, Trump's executive
- 32:31orders are only so good as long as he's in office.
- 32:35If you want something to stick around from a regulatory
- 32:38perspective, it has to go through and pass the legislative
- 32:43process. So again, Clarity Act, ladies
- 32:46and gentlemen, 769% of it passing Opti, I want to get your
- 32:51thoughts, man, because you've been feeling very bearish on the
- 32:54Clarity Act. I was as well because they kept
- 32:56delaying it, guys. They kept delaying it over and
- 32:59over and over and over again. But it seems like it's picked up
- 33:03some momentum again. Yeah, a lot of momentum and I
- 33:06have been very bearish about this actually passing because
- 33:10like Nico said, it just constantly kept being delayed.
- 33:13But it does seem at at least based on all the information we
- 33:18have now, that actually yesterday they were saying we
- 33:22might get the markup in today. Now it's saying maybe the
- 33:27earliest that the markup will come in was Monday, which was
- 33:30the initial kind of timeline that we covered last week.
- 33:34And I, I do have to kind of make a joke though here, Nico.
- 33:37I, I swear, when the Clarity Act passes, we're all expecting it
- 33:40to pump. I'm not going to be surprised if
- 33:43we see it dump on that day that, you know, that's just my gut
- 33:47feeling here. But you guys want to know
- 33:48something that is actually making me feel bullish about the
- 33:51clarity Act has nothing to do with any of the timelines.
- 33:54This is this is more, you know, live ship posting here.
- 33:57This is what does have me bullish on the Clarity Act.
- 34:01It is this poster right here by Elizabeth Warren.
- 34:05You guys know I'm a huge fan of Elizabeth Warren here.
- 34:08Well, did you guys catch what she tweeted yesterday?
- 34:11So she is quote tweeting a headline from Bloomberg and it
- 34:15goes Trump family crypto project quietly sold as holders got
- 34:18stuck. We've we've all been seeing the,
- 34:21you know, presidential rug pools here.
- 34:23We've been talking about it since Trump coin.
- 34:25But this is what makes me bullish about the clarity act is
- 34:28that Elizabeth Warren is fighting it now.
- 34:31And you guys know she's been on hell bent on this anti crypto
- 34:35March here. Here's the tweet we saw last
- 34:37night. She goes the Trump family crypto
- 34:39project quietly cashed in while regular investors got stuck
- 34:42holding the bag. Elizabeth Warren always out
- 34:44there for the little man. Gotta love it.
- 34:47And then it goes. Any crypto legislation that
- 34:51doesn't shut down this presidential corruption and
- 34:54protect investors isn't worth the paper it's written on, man.
- 34:59You know, she's got a way with words and actually shouts out to
- 35:03some of my friends on Twitter. They're like, you know, I miss
- 35:06BK Opti. That was more anti regulation.
- 35:08And I'm like, you're missing the joke.
- 35:09Like you're you're completely missing the joke here.
- 35:12The fact that Elizabeth Warren is now throwing her hat in the
- 35:15ring against the Clarity Act getting pushed through that
- 35:19actually like makes me bullish about what is in there.
- 35:22Because of course, you guys know or should know, she's a part of
- 35:25the Senate Banking Committee. So she supposedly is here to
- 35:30regulate the banks. And we were always wondering
- 35:33like, well, you had a very stark contrast from your early Occupy
- 35:38Wall Street days to now basically shilling for the big
- 35:41banks. And as we've been covering
- 35:43throughout the Clarity Act poll saga, the big banks have
- 35:48actively been fighting it. And now Elizabeth Warren is out
- 35:52there on Twitter basically saying like this, this, this
- 35:55Act's going to be absolutely garbage because I don't know, it
- 35:58doesn't protect the banks enough.
- 36:01It makes makes me bullish. One of the things that I love
- 36:03about Bitcoin is that it exposes incentives. 100.
- 36:07Percent exposes incentives, you know, So anyways, I do want to,
- 36:12I'll, I'll just have this kind of playing in the background.
- 36:14This. We're not the only ones to come
- 36:16up with this thesis and their Q12026 update.
- 36:21Brian Armstrong, they had the CEO and Co founder of Coinbase,
- 36:25the chief financial officer, the president, COO, the chief legal
- 36:30officer. They're all in the call and this
- 36:32is what they said quote hundreds of large companies will
- 36:35integrate it will be the new Internet Coinbase just said
- 36:39clarity is about to quote unlock a flood of institutional capital
- 36:44for Bitcoin and crypto. So again, this is the this is
- 36:48the theory. This is the thesis because
- 36:50again, if you're these large institutions and you're looking
- 36:53at it from a risk perspective and you remember what operation
- 36:56choke .2 point O brought about like you kind of have this
- 37:01massive like you're like listen, like I, I, I'm sold on the
- 37:06Bitcoin thing. I, I, I do believe it's here to
- 37:08stay. But from a regulatory
- 37:11perspective, we don't really have a lot of clarity, no pun
- 37:14intended, right? What happens if there's a change
- 37:17in administration? What happened?
- 37:18If there's a change in the political headwinds, like what
- 37:21are we going to do, right? Legislation comes out and get.
- 37:25Exactly what the you know, clarity Act is all about, right.
- 37:29So again, you're hearing it from Brian Armstrong, his team at
- 37:34Coinbase. They're saying it simply is not
- 37:37saying it quote unlock a flood of institutional capital for
- 37:41Bitcoin and crypto. Hundreds of large companies will
- 37:45integrate it will be quote the new Internet.
- 37:48Here we go. So again, you heard it from
- 37:52them, you heard it from us. That was the theory.
- 37:55And I I I I do a lot. And, and Coinbase has been in
- 37:58those rooms, so it's got a lot more weight.
- 38:01Coinbase has been moving this completely forward.
- 38:04So I completely agree with that 100%.
- 38:09Anyways, guys, we do have, again, Frank Holmes, Executive
- 38:12Chairman of Hive Digital Technologies, He's going to be
- 38:15joining us in a little bit. We still have a lot to cover,
- 38:18but I want to continue this conversation regarding the
- 38:20Clarity Act Opti before we move on to next segment.
- 38:24What's your take, brother? I just, I don't think anyone
- 38:27even knows what's in it. So I am a bit skeptical about
- 38:30what you know it's going to do. And then I'm also on a very just
- 38:36like fundamental mimetic view of this is like the government
- 38:42usually any bill they pass usually does the opposite.
- 38:45So I am kind of pessimistic about it.
- 38:48I, I feel like it's going to give us less clarity.
- 38:50I. Think I, I, but I think there's
- 38:52we'll see. We'll see.
- 38:53There's two ways to look at it. There's you look at it.
- 38:55And again, Bitcoin has evolved guys like Bitcoin is now, you
- 39:01know, essentially in the process of being integrated into Wall
- 39:04Street, right? That's traditional finance is
- 39:07here and it's here to stay, right?
- 39:10This type of legislation is extremely bullish for them,
- 39:15right? From the retail perspective, you
- 39:18can see the hesitation because from the retail perspective, you
- 39:21know, when we started the show for us, it's very simple.
- 39:23You buy Bitcoin, you earn Bitcoin.
- 39:25You mine Bitcoin. You put that Bitcoin into self
- 39:26custody. Number go up.
- 39:28You denominate your net worth in Bitcoin.
- 39:30Life goes on. Do we need a law to do that?
- 39:34No, but. That's why I was.
- 39:35That's why. That's why you and I argued over
- 39:37the. Does that change like the
- 39:39fundamental protocol of Bitcoin? No, right.
- 39:43So if you look at it from that angle, you know, yes, it's kind
- 39:50of like OK, this doesn't matter. But if you have to look at it
- 39:53and Opti, we are maturing, we are getting bigger.
- 39:56Am I maturing? We do have to cover, we do, we
- 39:59do have to cover Bitcoin from, you know, the traditional
- 40:02finance perspective and from the traditional finance perspective,
- 40:05again, it is very bullish. Guys.
- 40:07We're going to be right back just after the break.
- 40:09We have a special guest joining us today.
- 40:12We have the executive chairman of Hive Digital Technologies,
- 40:15Frank Holmes AKA Bulldog Homes. We're going to be right back.
- 40:19In just a bit, I want to give a shout out to our partner Leadin.
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- 43:43All right, everybody a little bit of a change up.
- 43:45We are we are waiting for the one the only CEO of Hive Digital
- 43:50Technologies, President and CEO of Hive Digital Technologies,
- 43:54Idan Killick. He's going to be joining us on
- 43:56the show momentarily. But before we do that Opti,
- 44:00let's continue the. Discussion.
- 44:02I, I actually, I'm, I'm kind of glad we got this little.
- 44:05There he is. Wait, hold on.
- 44:08The man, the myth. Yep, the legend.
- 44:10OK, here we are. We have Aiden joining us.
- 44:13Aiden, how you doing? Hey, guys.
- 44:15Sorry I'm I'm biohacking right now.
- 44:17I'm at a I'm at a clinic getting some IDs and always hustling
- 44:22baby. I love it.
- 44:24I love. It here's all my my supplements,
- 44:27my neurotropics. I've got a bunch of a bunch of,
- 44:33you know, coenzyme Q10, zinc, phosphodyl choline, and
- 44:39acetylcysteine. Anyways, I'll happen, baby.
- 44:45I love it. I love it.
- 44:46I didn't huge announcement coming out of HIVE.
- 44:49I do want to talk about that today.
- 44:51Press release got released a little bit earlier today.
- 44:55Hive's Buzz starts building a digital superhighway for Eastern
- 45:00Canada's first sovereign AI factory.
- 45:05I didn't, if my memory serves me correctly.
- 45:07I think we talked a little bit about this at the Bitcoin
- 45:09conference. Yeah.
- 45:11So this is just really part of our growth strategy in HPC this
- 45:16year. So we've really got 2 drivers in
- 45:19that HPC. So first of all, broadly, we've
- 45:22got the dual engine strategy. Of course, can't forget Bitcoin,
- 45:25and we'll talk a little bit about that.
- 45:26And of course, on our HPCAI business, we've got the GPU
- 45:30cloud and then we're going to be bringing online Tier 3 capacity
- 45:36vis A vis through New Brunswick and that's going to be where we
- 45:39can entertain Co location with enterprises and hyperscalers.
- 45:44So we'd love to get you out to New Brunswick one day, Nico to
- 45:48check it out. It's a beautiful facility, 70
- 45:51MW, what I would describe as a military grade Bitcoin mine.
- 45:56You know, when I joined HIVE in 2021, it was actually to fly to
- 46:00New Brunswick to help Frank with diligence and I did it on
- 46:04advisory mandate and I spent, it was peak pandemic COVID and the
- 46:09site was like 10 megawatts built out and we acquired it and
- 46:14completed the full 70. And, and the team that had built
- 46:17that joined Hive. And so we've been one big happy
- 46:22family ever since. But we've got our own
- 46:24substations, we've got our own dedicated transmission line and
- 46:27we bought an additional 32 acres of land recently and we
- 46:31announced that late last year. Until the next catalyst, you
- 46:35need land, power and connectivity.
- 46:37So the big catalyst here and the big excitement is that, you
- 46:40know, we've been partnered with Bell Canada to advance our AI
- 46:44cloud and they also are going to build the fibre to the New
- 46:49Brunswick site. So that's really exciting and
- 46:52we're just going to have a lot of cool excitement, cool updates
- 46:57as we advance construction design and development has been
- 47:01well under way. So it's it's going good.
- 47:05We're we're really excited and it's it's going to be I think on
- 47:12the East Coast, especially in the Maritimes, the largest, the
- 47:15largest site I'm I'm aware of and certainly for AI.
- 47:19So this is going to be like I I mean it's it's this is the
- 47:24largest single site operating Bitcoin mine, I think in Canada
- 47:28today, Huddy back and they had the the drumheller sites.
- 47:31I think they shut those down and so, but when I'm talking about
- 47:36like proper data center in the Maritimes, I think this might be
- 47:40the largest. So that's really exciting.
- 47:43Yeah, that's, that's amazing. And this also, this news comes
- 47:47after the news of, of you guys being able to raise $100 million
- 47:54on a 0% convertible notes, which again, we haven't released this
- 48:00interview, but I love the interview I did with Idan at the
- 48:03Bitcoin conference. I got to spend some time with
- 48:06him as well. And yeah, this, this is, you
- 48:10know, that breaking news and then this breaking news are, are
- 48:15the 2 news connected? Is this part of the 100 million
- 48:18that you guys raised? I think really the the 100
- 48:23million, when we were raising that capital, that was the
- 48:27catalyst to fund 2 very large GPU cluster deals that are each
- 48:32going to add upwards of 60 million ARR to our GPU cloud
- 48:38revenues who are 35 million ARR contracted today.
- 48:42When we get one of these deals signing announce, it'll bring us
- 48:44to 100 million ARR and then we get the second deal announced,
- 48:48it'll bring us to over 150 million ARR.
- 48:51And so you know, we, we signed the Mous and, and you know,
- 48:54we're at the five yard line to get these formalized.
- 48:58And so big part of it, the catalyst that capital was to
- 49:02have the financing in place to put down payments on the GPU
- 49:06clusters 'cause we're working with blue chip lenders, we're
- 49:09finding the sweet spot. You know, they're, they're
- 49:10wanting a bit of a down payment. So if you're going to buy $170
- 49:14million GPU cluster, you're going to want to put 2030
- 49:18million bucks down cash. And so now that we have that.
- 49:22So if you put $20 million down on each cluster, that's 40
- 49:26million bucks. And so now we have that capital
- 49:30at 0 coupon interest with a conversion premium and the
- 49:34capped call 125%. So if the stock rallies, which I
- 49:39really think we'll have a, we'll have a RE rating once we hit 100
- 49:44million error, I think the stock will RE rate about 5 bucks.
- 49:49And I think once we exceed 150 million ARR, the stock is really
- 49:53consolidating a very strong bit about 5 bucks.
- 49:56And maybe we can do an early conversion on that capped call
- 50:00at a premium. And that would actually net as
- 50:02proceeds of 100 million cash if we were able to negotiate an
- 50:06early convert on that capped call because the the share price
- 50:10would be $4.92. And so the proceeds up to that
- 50:14amount from the original conversion price, I think was
- 50:17$2.18. Those proceeds go to us.
- 50:20And so we're really excited about that.
- 50:22But we did talk about, we did talk about some of the proceeds
- 50:27going towards long lead hardware for our two sites.
- 50:32So there's the New Brunswick site and the site by the Toronto
- 50:36airport that we're going to be building up as well.
- 50:40And so that'll be a beautiful edge site.
- 50:41It's about 7 megawatts, really strong demand just because of
- 50:45its its proximity. So, yeah, it's a oh, nice vest.
- 50:51Yeah. So.
- 50:52I love it this Apparently this is special edition.
- 50:55Apparently it's hard to get these so I'm very proud of my of
- 50:57my hive vest. Yeah, yeah, of course you.
- 50:59You should be, because only the executives have those.
- 51:02So, your extended family, Nico? I love it.
- 51:07I love it so I I didn't. This is incredibly bullish.
- 51:11How many sites does HIVE have in total?
- 51:15I mean if we talk about Bitcoin mining sites or if we talk about
- 51:19more specifically, I think what you're asking is sites that are
- 51:23currently active that can be converted to Tier 3.
- 51:26So we have the Toronto Airport site for seven megawatts.
- 51:29We have New Brunswick which is 70 megawatts that sites 1010
- 51:32times bigger. We also have both of our sites
- 51:35in Sweden, what we call big Bone is 32 megawatts of little Bone
- 51:39is 7 megawatts and we're seeing a lot of demand for those sites
- 51:43as well. We've actually start gone
- 51:44through the process of decommissioning the little boat
- 51:48and site, little boat and seven megawatts.
- 51:49But we, we've had a design build firm go through all the drawings
- 51:56and and permitting through late last year.
- 51:58And so that process is under way.
- 52:01And so that's in in Canada, you have New Brunswick which is 70
- 52:06megawatts. You have little, sorry, the
- 52:08Toronto airport site which is 7 megawatts.
- 52:10And then in Boden in Sweden, both our sites, big boat and
- 52:13little boat and 32 megawatts and seven megawatts.
- 52:15And The thing is, is I do want to clarify how this HPC Co
- 52:20location game works is you're effectively selling, you know, a
- 52:25powered shell and you are the host and you're you're hosting
- 52:29not for a miner. Like remember hosting was very
- 52:31prevalent in crypto mining, but you're hosting for an enterprise
- 52:35Oregon, a hyper scaler that wants to put stand up their
- 52:38compute and you're selling them Rackspace.
- 52:39So the number is behind that. It's it's dollars per kilowatt
- 52:43per month. So for example, and you know
- 52:45when you look at a cipher dealer terrible deal like all the Wall
- 52:48Street guys are underwriting what what is the term like is it
- 52:51a 15 year or ten year? And what is a dollar per
- 52:54kilowatt per month? And so I'll walk you through
- 52:56what that means. So for example, if you have a 70
- 53:00MW site like New Brunswick, this might be helpful for your
- 53:02viewers to wrap their head around the economics of HPC code
- 53:06and then we can talk about the GP cloud a little bit.
- 53:09But I do want to spend a little bit of time being in an
- 53:11interview just to kind of bit bitcoins having a moment.
- 53:14You know, we cracked ADK. So I just, you know, I think
- 53:17it's good to remind people of the value of Bitcoin as world's
- 53:20decentralized energy back currency.
- 53:22But let's get back to these economics really quick and I
- 53:25hope this is helpful for the viewers.
- 53:27So $150.00 a kilowatt a month is indicative for our site in
- 53:33Boden, Sweden, for example. And so if you have a site that
- 53:37is 3030 megawatts, for example, or in our case 32 megawatts, you
- 53:44in in when you're doing two or three data centers, you got to
- 53:47apply the PUE power usage effectiveness ratio.
- 53:50What that means is not all the power at the site can be used
- 53:53for compute in crypto mining, your PU ES almost one because
- 53:58you don't really have air conditioners or other periphery
- 54:02consumption of power. You just cram as many miners as
- 54:05possible, maybe have fans or maybe it's passively cool, just
- 54:08uses a the fans of the miners themself.
- 54:12But you have to account for, you know, all the chillers and and
- 54:15all of the climate control in a two or three days.
- 54:19And so nominally use APUV of 1.3.
- 54:22So for example, you know what, we can even use New Brunswick,
- 54:2770 megawatts divided by 1.3 is like 53 megawatts.
- 54:31So you could just use a round Number, say 50 megawatts.
- 54:34Well, 50 megawatts is 50,000 kilowatts, right?
- 54:37That's so New Brunswick is a secondary market.
- 54:40So it'd be $130.00 a kilowatt a month.
- 54:43So all you do is you just go, OK, well that would be 50,000 *
- 54:50130. You get 6 and a half million a
- 54:53month times 12. Well, that'd be 78,000,000 a
- 54:57year. It'd be a bit more than that
- 54:59because it's, it's, it's, it's more than 50 megawatts.
- 55:02I think we get closer to 55. And then if you signed a 15 year
- 55:06contract, that's worth 1.1 billion, right?
- 55:12So that that's the, that's, that's the play.
- 55:19That was amazing, yeah. Yeah, that math really quickly
- 55:23that. That was amazing on the fly.
- 55:26Wild biohacking. Wild biohacking I love.
- 55:31It getting some NAD plus glutathione, phosphatel, choline
- 55:36and I think I had sodium phenolbutyrate.
- 55:40The NAD I'm familiar with, but doesn't it give you the pressure
- 55:43like the chest pressure a little?
- 55:45Bit no, you know, shout out to Nick Hanson at Luxor.
- 55:48Actually, he got me onto function health, so it's 116
- 55:53biomarkers and I just got my test results back.
- 55:56My biological age is 31.8 years. Oh wow, yeah, so I did.
- 56:01I did a function health test recently.
- 56:03You're you're younger than me, 'cause mine came out to 32.
- 56:07Really broke, I'm 45. And I'm 34.
- 56:13All right now. Now I have ammo to make fun of
- 56:15Niko. I gotta, I gotta get, I gotta
- 56:17get out there, man. I gotta I gotta start listening
- 56:20to Opti. Yeah, yeah, you're a cook now,
- 56:22bro. Yeah, that's.
- 56:23That's why I don't drink at the conferences anymore.
- 56:25You always see me. I'm just like, you know, maybe
- 56:28if it was like the very last night was good in Vegas.
- 56:30But yeah, I know. Coming back on the economics of
- 56:33the game, then you look at the AI cloud and so with the GPUs
- 56:38and so GPUs is how many GPUs are you renting?
- 56:42So for example, I'm going to give you like very nominal
- 56:45figures, like say the new like Grace Blackwells that are out
- 56:48there, GP3 hundreds, it's more than 350, but it's like $3.50 an
- 56:53hour. And if you've got a cluster of
- 56:55like 2000 GPUs, you're doing $7000 an hour, but there's 24
- 57:02hours in a day. So you're 168 grand a day.
- 57:07That's like 61 million a year, right?
- 57:10So remember I said how there's large GPU cluster deals we're
- 57:13working on. Each one can add 60 million ARR.
- 57:17That's it right there. I just walked you through it.
- 57:19You see what I'm saying? And then but but get this, that
- 57:24is five megawatts, that's that's what you're getting out of five
- 57:27megawatts, right. So there's two different things
- 57:30we're contemplating. We're contemplating on one hand
- 57:35standing up the GPUs ourself, putting them on our cloud and
- 57:38and getting that very high profit density.
- 57:41But when you do a GPU cloud contract, you're maybe renting
- 57:44it for three years. So if you did a three-year
- 57:46contract, that'll be worth 180 million or if you did, or if you
- 57:51did say A5 year contract, that'd be worth 300 million.
- 57:55You know, so that's kind of how the GPU cloud game is, is
- 58:00evaluated. But for me, because Hive, you
- 58:05know, has expertise in building and operating engagement, but
- 58:09also orchestrating compute. And so The thing is, is when you
- 58:14look at mining in theory mining Bitcoin, we again, we're the
- 58:19first, I think the first public crypto miner to actually do GPU
- 58:22cloud going back three years ago.
- 58:25And we started putting our NVIDIA a 40s on the aggregators
- 58:30on the, on the platforms. How do you, how do you evaluate
- 58:35the different revenue streams? Dollar per kWh?
- 58:38That's the answer, right? So, you know, Bitcoin mining
- 58:41economics could be $0.12 a kWh, 8 cents a kWh, depending on the
- 58:46efficiency of the machine. It's all physics, right?
- 58:48So Joule per Tera hash in Bitcoin mining is energy related
- 58:53to compute. And then dollar per kWh is
- 58:58dollar per unit of energy. So you you see all ties back to
- 59:02energy, right? Joule per hash, dollar per kWh.
- 59:07So you you can bridge it all. And so the fundamental is doing
- 59:12a dollar per kWh analysis. And so for example, the HPC Co
- 59:18low, you know, it, it depends. Like it's really easy actually.
- 59:21I mean, if you're, if you're renting for $150.00 a kilowatt a
- 59:24month, well, guess what? They're 730 hours a month.
- 59:28So that's $0.20 a kWh. And you, you know what I'm
- 59:33saying? So or, or if you're, if you did
- 59:36like I think I think Cypher did a deal at $101.00 a kilowatt a
- 59:40month. And there's two things that are
- 59:42blowing my mind right now. OK, first of all, it's the
- 59:44numbers, which are very impressive.
- 59:46The second part is the fact that you're doing this on the fly off
- 59:49the top of your head, which is really, really fascinating to
- 59:54see. Yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm an
- 59:55electrical engineer. Like I I like math and I was,
- 59:58the nurses keep coming here too. Like what's this guy doing?
- 1:00:02But he's he's just on a show with thousands of people
- 1:00:05watching, that's all. And so at $101.00 a kilowatt, he
- 1:00:10used to divide by 730 hours. So that'd be thirteen cents a
- 1:00:15kWh. So you're not far off from
- 1:00:17Bitcoin mining revenues when you're doing Kolo, when you're
- 1:00:20doing Kolo, you know, but here's why Wall Street loves Kolo
- 1:00:24because it's stable, because now you're, you're signing a
- 1:00:27contract where it's that number, it's that $0.14 a kWh for 15
- 1:00:32years, you know, and, and what's the build out of that?
- 1:00:35OK, it's 88 million a MW, 10 million a MW.
- 1:00:38Different CE OS will tell you different things.
- 1:00:40It doesn't matter. Every project's unique is a
- 1:00:42Greenfield, it's battlefield, you know, how quickly you get
- 1:00:45into market, etcetera. There's going to be different
- 1:00:48factors. It's like building a skyscraper.
- 1:00:50The cost will vary, but say it's in that range, 8 to 10 million a
- 1:00:54MW, your ROI is going to be about 6 to 8 years.
- 1:00:59But that's OK because Wall Street's OK with that.
- 1:01:01They like that you got long term stable revenues.
- 1:01:05Here's the thing, crypto mining, you know, we always underwrite
- 1:01:09one year ROI, 1 to 1 1/2 year ROI after a 5 cent off X.
- 1:01:14And and you know, we've we've realized that, you know, we've,
- 1:01:17we've hit 1 1/2 year ROYS, even one year ROYS on some of the
- 1:01:22batches of ASICS that we hit. But Bitcoin mining top line is
- 1:01:25volatile. And so Wall Street doesn't
- 1:01:27really on a comparative basis. Don't get me wrong, in a bull
- 1:01:30market, they love it. Like everyone just forgets
- 1:01:32everything and they're like, yeah, to the moon.
- 1:01:35But when Bitcoin pulls back and people are like, oh, why don't
- 1:01:39we just, you know, invest in these businesses that can stack
- 1:01:43up these long term stable cash flows for 10-15 years doing this
- 1:01:47Colorado business. And that's why you're seeing
- 1:01:49some of our peers really double down, Wolf, Seifer, Hutch,
- 1:01:53really double down on the Colorado.
- 1:01:56And, and I think the idea Morgan Stanley put out this report last
- 1:02:00September where they're like, hey, you know, the Bitcoin
- 1:02:03miners, they should just do a bunch of HPC Colorado.
- 1:02:06And then when you sign all because convert all your data
- 1:02:08centres, each data centre is a contract.
- 1:02:11So if you've got you signed a billion dollar contract there
- 1:02:14and over 15 years and a $5 billion contract there, what you
- 1:02:18end up doing, what's your annual net operating income?
- 1:02:21You can add that up across all your different sites.
- 1:02:23Now it looks like a REIT, a real estate investment trust.
- 1:02:26And those get crazy multiples like digital Realty.
- 1:02:29So that's that thesis. But then the other thesis is
- 1:02:34what we are doing as well, right?
- 1:02:35We got 5500 GPS on our cloud now doubling to 11,000 GPS at the
- 1:02:40end of this year, which by the way will take us to 200 million
- 1:02:43ARR. We, we are the largest in Canada
- 1:02:46right now and I think we'll continue to grow along that
- 1:02:48line. We also see iron they they've
- 1:02:50really doubled down on the GP cloud as well.
- 1:02:54And people like, yeah, but you're getting better revenues
- 1:02:56or betting better multiples doing the Colo.
- 1:02:59But then you can really zoom out and say, well, like, OK, but
- 1:03:02then what about core weave and Nebius and Lambda?
- 1:03:05Like, you know, if you kind of get venerated and you're at that
- 1:03:09scale as AGPU cloud, neo, AGPU neo cloud, then I think the
- 1:03:14multiples are also super attractive.
- 1:03:15So I think it's just being whatever you do, you got to be
- 1:03:18like really good at it, right? Like you, you can chase whatever
- 1:03:24emerging sector is there and chase this idea of trying to get
- 1:03:28good multiples. But for us, it's about
- 1:03:30execution. It's demonstrating value to
- 1:03:31shareholders. Always ROIC, always ROIC.
- 1:03:35That's why we're always hustling.
- 1:03:36That's why we're always, you know, no days off, right?
- 1:03:39But I. No days off.
- 1:03:42Literally biohacking here on the show.
- 1:03:45Doing math. And.
- 1:03:47So I actually brought my mom out here.
- 1:03:48That's the real reason I'm out here.
- 1:03:50I got here out here for three weeks.
- 1:03:52And so the little Mother's Day gift and, and I, I'm spending a
- 1:03:56week out here, but you know, I think I, so, so that's, that's
- 1:04:00on that front. But I, I think it would be kind
- 1:04:03of good to take a moment just to like reflect on, you know,
- 1:04:07Bitcoin is, it's, it's finding its way, You know, 10-10 really
- 1:04:10took the wind at a lot of people's sales, but you know,
- 1:04:14Bitcoins starting to rally again.
- 1:04:16And I think, you know, I was talking with Frank earlier,
- 1:04:20Frank Holmes, of course, Co founder, executive chairman of
- 1:04:22five who I think, you know, you, you would just done a a great
- 1:04:26interview with him in Vegas. There's so many countries that
- 1:04:31have debanked people or frozen currency.
- 1:04:37You know, like there was like in 2013, like, and and Frank comes
- 1:04:42up with all this amazing research, like Cyprus in 2013.
- 1:04:48You know, there was there was a bunch of deposits that were
- 1:04:53confiscated. Zimbabwe, you know, screw, screw
- 1:04:59the country through hyperinflation.
- 1:05:01Obviously we all know about like Argentina, Venezuela, I'm half
- 1:05:04Turkish, but even even Turkey, you know, has had massive
- 1:05:08inflation. And so I think really like and
- 1:05:12look, even Trump, you know, prior to him becoming president
- 1:05:16in, in the, the prior administration, he was
- 1:05:19effectively D banked too. So I think that's what made him
- 1:05:23pro crypto. So I, I just think it's good to
- 1:05:26remind people how and look, even in Canada, when we had when it
- 1:05:32was COVID and there was the freedom rally, whichever side of
- 1:05:35that debate you're on, all you could do is you could look back
- 1:05:39at the fact pattern. And the Canadian government did
- 1:05:41try to go freeze bank account to people that were supporting that
- 1:05:45movement. And what happened to freedom of
- 1:05:48speech then? So you, you can't go protest
- 1:05:52unless it's, you know, like a bunch of lefty nonsense.
- 1:05:55I'm, you know, I'm more conservative, so whatever.
- 1:05:58But yeah, like I think that it really just shows how even a
- 1:06:02country like Canada, you know, can, can freeze bank accounts.
- 1:06:06So I do, I just really think that ultimately as as the
- 1:06:12world's decentralized energy back currency, Bitcoin will
- 1:06:16continue stand the test of time. I mean, 10/10 was was, you know,
- 1:06:20brutal. And I think, but that's not
- 1:06:21Bitcoin's fault. That's finance and that's hedge
- 1:06:24funds and, and you know, people manipulating, actually they were
- 1:06:28manipulating a stable coin, they were manipulating BSE and that
- 1:06:31caused all that. Can we can we do a, a deep dive
- 1:06:35into that item? Because it seems like you have
- 1:06:37more information like what? And, and Frank actually came on
- 1:06:40the show and he talked about it as well.
- 1:06:42What happened on October 10th to, to see this, this epic
- 1:06:46meltdown. Like what information do you
- 1:06:48have for the audience? So on Binance, what happened was
- 1:06:54there's a stable coin called BSE and and it was only traded on
- 1:06:58Binance. And So what this hedge fund did
- 1:07:00was they like very quietly accumulated a bunch of it.
- 1:07:03It was a stable coin and you know, people like leverage bets
- 1:07:07on crypto are huge. You can, you can trade futures
- 1:07:10on finance. You can do 3 to 1 leverage, 5 to
- 1:07:121 leverage. And when finance was available
- 1:07:14in Canada, just, you know, war story.
- 1:07:17I, I, I would, this was quite a few years ago.
- 1:07:21I think it was like 4 years ago, maybe five.
- 1:07:25I was just like, oh, this you're basically just playing the
- 1:07:27volatility right. And and so you set up these
- 1:07:30short term trades over a few hours or days and if and you
- 1:07:34know, if it hits, if it hits the line, you win.
- 1:07:37But if it drops below your margin call number, then you
- 1:07:41know, you get wiped out. And So what happened was you
- 1:07:46have all these people playing these levered bets on Binance
- 1:07:49and what's the collateral? Well, you got to have collateral
- 1:07:53on Binance. And so if you're using that a
- 1:07:56coin like Bitcoin, and that's, you know, say Bitcoin drops,
- 1:08:02that's one thing. But if you're using another
- 1:08:05token, A stablecoin as collateral, well, what happens
- 1:08:11if the value of that stablecoin drops?
- 1:08:14And so this BSc dropped like $0.65 from a dollar because this
- 1:08:20hedge fund dumped it. So everyone's collateral fell
- 1:08:24suddenly to 65% of its face value.
- 1:08:28That's gonna screw up everybody's open level.
- 1:08:31Competitions. And so that's what caused all
- 1:08:34this auto deleveraging. And then to, you know, add fuel
- 1:08:37to the fire. There was a like the, the, the
- 1:08:42APIs were going down. So the market makers and, and,
- 1:08:45and Binance like it was, you know, there was, there was that
- 1:08:48issue too, really exacerbated things.
- 1:08:50And so the punchline is $19 billion of value got wiped out.
- 1:08:55That's crazy. That's the.
- 1:08:57Worst, like there's been, there's been few crashes.
- 1:09:00You know, there's a flash crash in the one like when I had a
- 1:09:05finance account way back when and I I lost like 15 grand going
- 1:09:09out to dinner. I was just like, I set a trade
- 1:09:10up and Bitcoin was at 60,000 and it flash crashed at 49,800.
- 1:09:15And it's like a needle, like you have to like, zoom in to see
- 1:09:18that on the chart. And like, it wasn't just me.
- 1:09:21Like, I think $2 billion got wiped out that day.
- 1:09:24So, like for people, but it doesn't, it kind of makes the
- 1:09:27headlines. But it's kind of like, you know,
- 1:09:29I feel like those are like boring headlines that people
- 1:09:32scroll past unless you're like a trader.
- 1:09:35And so you know there, look up Bitcoin flash crashes.
- 1:09:38There was a there. I didn't.
- 1:09:39There was one. I saw a Kalishi.
- 1:09:41I could you pull it up off? There was one last night on On
- 1:09:44Revolution. It it literally flat, it
- 1:09:46glitched, it glitched, it glitched to point.
- 1:09:48I'll pull it up .02 cents per Bitcoin.
- 1:09:53Not kidding. Yes, I'm not kidding.
- 1:09:55I saw the headline. It's going going to your.
- 1:09:58I'm I'm pulling it. Up he's pulling it up right now.
- 1:10:00So yeah, those flash class, those flat those flash crashes
- 1:10:04are brutal. But like I didn't they're,
- 1:10:06they're manufactured right? Like they, they do this on
- 1:10:09purpose. Yeah, yeah, of course, like I
- 1:10:12think you've got you got Wales and and, you know, hedge funds
- 1:10:17out there that you know, are looking at like I'm not a hedge
- 1:10:21fund guy. I'm I'm not a trader and so I
- 1:10:24can't really speak to that, but look at that, look at that.
- 1:10:33I yeah, they're they're they're engineered.
- 1:10:34And so basically the sorry, I'm, I'm just sorry, just a little
- 1:10:44bit of an interruption. What was the what was the price?
- 1:10:48Look at that I did. I have it pulled up on screen on
- 1:10:50Revolt. The price of Bitcoin has dropped
- 1:10:53to two cents. Speaking of flash crashes.
- 1:10:59Crazy, crazy. Of course it was a it was a
- 1:11:02glitch, but I'm assuming anyone that had any type of trades, you
- 1:11:05know OP, they they got crushed. Yeah.
- 1:11:09So basically $19 billion of value was wiped out.
- 1:11:16And then Richard Tang was on stage in Hong Kong at coin at
- 1:11:21consensus and he was like, oh, you know, we paid back $300
- 1:11:25million to the people that mattered and like, OK, what is
- 1:11:29that like, OK, cool. So you, you're, you're taking
- 1:11:33account of what that tells me is they're taking accountability
- 1:11:37because obviously if, if they truly felt like they weren't
- 1:11:42accountable, then I don't think they would have paid the 300
- 1:11:44million. And I guess it's admirable they
- 1:11:47paid the 300 million, but it doesn't change the fact that 19
- 1:11:50billion in value is wiped. And so let's zoom out for a
- 1:11:54second. The point is, is that we've
- 1:11:56navigated that and that was when Bitcoin was like 126,000 and
- 1:12:00then it toppled to like 100,000. And then I think there was just
- 1:12:03this hangover because it was something more that like the
- 1:12:07market makers and exchanges were aware of than the average show,
- 1:12:11obviously, like Bitcoiners and people that are really in the
- 1:12:13industry. But I don't think retail really
- 1:12:15understood that the impact and effect because it's it was kind
- 1:12:18of like a structural flaunt system.
- 1:12:20Again, Bitcoin itself is secure. Like by the way, I just did
- 1:12:24this. I didn't wear this shirt because
- 1:12:26I was doing this interview like I'm in this clinic biohacking.
- 1:12:30I just wear this shirt because it's high, then it's Bitcoin and
- 1:12:33I just wrap it daily. You know, like Frank called me,
- 1:12:36he was like, I didn't, do you want to do this simply Bitcoin
- 1:12:37interview? I said I'd absolutely love to.
- 1:12:40And so I just this is just how I pulled up, man.
- 1:12:43I didn't put this shirt on like for the interview.
- 1:12:46So Bitcoin is is very resilient. It's energy backed deep, truly,
- 1:12:51you know, it's, it's, it's I, I mean, look, I took a lot of
- 1:12:53physics and, and math courses. That's why I love Bitcoin
- 1:12:57because you can understand it at such a deep level.
- 1:13:00And you've got probably 30 gigawatts of power globally
- 1:13:04securing this decentralized network of compute that's worth,
- 1:13:07you know, almost a couple of trillion dollars.
- 1:13:10And so I, I think that there will always, there always seems
- 1:13:13to be the exchanges and you know it, it just always seems to be
- 1:13:17the exchanges that are the Achilles heel of the crypto
- 1:13:21industry. All that mount going back to
- 1:13:22Mount Gox, all the exploits are on the exchanges.
- 1:13:26It's the on ramp, off ramp. It's kind of like, you know,
- 1:13:28like how often. Oh shoot guys, I got another
- 1:13:32meeting. That all good, All good.
- 1:13:34I didn't the one, the only the legendary coming in while
- 1:13:38biohacking, doing math on the fly.
- 1:13:42I didn't kill it. Ladies and gentlemen, CEO of
- 1:13:44Hive Digital Technologies, go check them out.
- 1:13:46They're traded on the NASDAQ and the Canadian exchange as well
- 1:13:49the TSX exchange. I believe that's how you say it.
- 1:13:52So go check out the HIVE ticker. Aiden, thank you so much for
- 1:13:56joining us, man. I really appreciate it.
- 1:13:58Thank you. We'll biohack next time
- 1:13:59together, Nico. Absolutely.
- 1:14:01All right, Take it easy, Aiden. Thank you.
- 1:14:04All right, everybody. Well, Opti, it was a great week.
- 1:14:07Man, that was an epic, legendary interview of Aiden Killick from
- 1:14:12CEO of Hive Digital Technologies calling in from the clinic.
- 1:14:17That was awesome. I can't wait.
- 1:14:18To talk, well the chat was super hyped on the pile hacking.
- 1:14:21That we weren't the. Conversation was going.
- 1:14:23We were we were talking about supplements and stuff in the
- 1:14:25chat. That was out.
- 1:14:26That was absolutely epic. So anyways, guys, before we
- 1:14:30close out the show, maybe we should give away some Bitcoin
- 1:14:35and then I do while I pull that up, Opti, could you pull up the
- 1:14:39Mining Disrupt website? So yeah, that's Friday.
- 1:14:45Let's give away some Bitcoin. Friends over at Bitcoin.
- 1:14:48Well, definitely don't want to miss it.
- 1:14:52Ladies and gentlemen, here we go.
- 1:14:57Waiting for the e-mail. Here it is.
- 1:15:04Or we got to put some sound boards or something while I'm
- 1:15:07doing this. Here we go.
- 1:15:10Dude, you're just a boomer over here, bro.
- 1:15:13I can't Internet. OK, bro.
- 1:15:16OK. All right.
- 1:15:17So I do want to give a shout out to, of course, our lead sponsor
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- 1:15:50Or you can toss a coin into the Bitcoin wishing well and every
- 1:15:54single time you toss a coin into the wishing well, you earn or
- 1:15:57you have the opportunity to win some sats.
- 1:16:00So get your lightning wallets ready to scan it on screen.
- 1:16:05I'm going to just leave it up for just a little bit and here
- 1:16:08we go, tossing a coin into the wishing well.
- 1:16:10Get your lighting wallets ready ladies and gentlemen, and scan
- 1:16:14the QR code. First person to scan this QR
- 1:16:17code has won 210 SAT's. That is today's prize.
- 1:16:22Do another one. Do another one.
- 1:16:24So we haven't. Done them in a while, we haven't
- 1:16:26done them in a while. We we're doing it twice.
- 1:16:28Yeah, why not, OK. OK, OK.
- 1:16:29OK. OK.
- 1:16:29OK. OK.
- 1:16:31All right, let's do that. Let's do that.
- 1:16:32Here we go. Here we go.
- 1:16:34Maybe we'll get the million SAT today and I'll steal it.
- 1:16:37All right, get your Lightning wallets ready.
- 1:16:39Ladies and gentlemen, we're tossing a coin into the wishing
- 1:16:42well and oh, there you go, 500. There you go.
- 1:16:48So guys scan this QR code if you're watching it at home,
- 1:16:52first person to scan it is the one who's going to get the
- 1:16:56SAT's. Also, I do want to Opti has it
- 1:17:00pulled up. I do want to give a very special
- 1:17:03shout out to our sponsor, Mining disrupts.
- 1:17:08Guys, this is going to be the largest Bitcoin conference of
- 1:17:11the year. You're definitely don't you
- 1:17:13definitely don't want to miss it.
- 1:17:15It's July 21st through the 23rd in Miami, FL again, mining
- 1:17:21disrupt July 21st through the 23rd 2026 Miami, FL.
- 1:17:27You definitely don't want to miss it.
- 1:17:29Get your tickets now. You could use the link in the
- 1:17:32video slash podcast description to get I think it's 20% off your
- 1:17:37tickets to the largest Bitcoin conference of the year.
- 1:17:41Mining Disrupt 2026 July 21st through the 23rd in Miami, FL.
- 1:17:48We hope to see you guys there. Anyways, that was the week.
- 1:17:52Another week, another week under the belt for Simply Bitcoin
- 1:17:57Live. If you guys like the show, smash
- 1:17:59the like button, consider subscribing, and we'll see you
- 1:18:02on the next episode. Take care of everybody, have an
- 1:18:04amazing weekend. We'll see you on Monday.
- 1:18:07Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
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- 1:18:13independence.