Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Five NFL Picks to Win One Million Dollars with Chad and Blackjack

Transcript

Five NFL Picks to Win One Million Dollars with Chad and Blackjack · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the million Dollar Super Contest. Addition,
0:11
Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman from the Action Network. I am
0:14
Speaker 1: joined by black Jack Fletcher, my brother at the Action Network.
0:18
Speaker 1: It's nine twenty on a Thursday morning. He's half a
0:23
Speaker 1: banquet beer in has another one on the table. Is
0:29
Speaker 1: how we live life around here. This is what This
0:31
Speaker 1: is the fuel that is going to give us the
0:34
Speaker 1: energy to get these winds and get that million dollars. Yeah.
0:37
Speaker 1: If I'm a listener to this podcast, I'm thinking so wait,
0:40
Speaker 1: I'm betting on the guy with a made up name
0:42
Speaker 1: who's half drunk. First of all, if you think a
0:45
Speaker 1: half of beer gets me half drunk, you don't know
0:47
Speaker 1: me that well. Second of all, made up name, kind
0:50
Speaker 1: of a name is Chad. I never met a guy
0:56
Speaker 1: named Chad that I liked. Two deep family history listen.
1:01
Speaker 1: If this is your first time listening to us, well
1:03
Speaker 1: shame on you. But here's how it works. Every Friday morning,
1:06
Speaker 1: we are going to discuss the entire weekly slate of
1:09
Speaker 1: NFL games. Black Jack and I my nemesis. We have
1:12
Speaker 1: to agree on five games against the spread, and from
1:15
Speaker 1: those from this list, these five games, we submit these
1:19
Speaker 1: to the West Gate Las Vegas Super Contest, five picks
1:23
Speaker 1: against the spread. We are trying to win one point
1:26
Speaker 1: four million dollars black jack, one point four million dollars
1:30
Speaker 1: a lot of course. Uh, listen, the first week, we're
1:34
Speaker 1: gonna get this done fast. Last week, I think we
1:36
Speaker 1: got it done on like less than forty minutes. Because
1:38
Speaker 1: there's not every game it's going to be worth talking about.
1:40
Speaker 1: We're gonna try to do a fast again this week.
1:42
Speaker 1: Last week did not go well for us, and so
1:44
Speaker 1: we're a little bit behind the eight ball. And you were,
1:46
Speaker 1: you were like, listen, sober, this is where I like
1:50
Speaker 1: to be. All right, Our backs against the wall suck?
1:52
Speaker 1: That did we did? Georgina say hello to Georgina, Georgina,
1:57
Speaker 1: good morning black Jack. Flansher, thank you, Hello, million Monster.
2:03
Speaker 1: I love the mill. Monster made several double ententres about
2:07
Speaker 1: that around the office. Um, yeah, our backs against the walchat.
2:11
Speaker 1: But that's that's I thrive under pressure. This is where
2:14
Speaker 1: I need to be. Okay, you know, this is this
2:17
Speaker 1: is where you you see what kind of a man
2:19
Speaker 1: you really are. It's true last year you were an
2:21
Speaker 1: unemployed lawyer trying to make your living as a gambler,
2:24
Speaker 1: and now you are doing this this, now you are
2:27
Speaker 1: doing this for a living. And I don't know if
2:28
Speaker 1: that says a lot about your perseverance or how desperate
2:31
Speaker 1: we were, but I think a little bit of about
2:33
Speaker 1: I think listen, we went one three and one last week.
2:36
Speaker 1: Last week we won the Bengals, which I convinced you
2:39
Speaker 1: to take, convinced you to take. Congratulations, and congratulations to
2:43
Speaker 1: me for being convinced on that. We lost the Titans.
2:46
Speaker 1: We lost the Titans. That was ugly. We lost the Steelers. Um,
2:52
Speaker 1: that was a game that you were adamant that we take.
2:55
Speaker 1: I I believe if we had to play, a highlight
2:57
Speaker 1: would be like, it's the Steelers against the Browns. The
3:02
Speaker 1: Steelers against the Browns. Already, it's all you need to know.
3:06
Speaker 1: And I'll remind you. I'll remind you that it was
3:09
Speaker 1: a bad pick and that I was all over the Browns,
3:11
Speaker 1: and that like you were, so you bullieve me. It
3:13
Speaker 1: was taking that hold on, gonna let yourself be bullied.
3:16
Speaker 1: The last the last pick. The last pick was the Giants,
3:20
Speaker 1: which we both loved, beating the Jaguars. That one was ugly.
3:23
Speaker 1: And then we pushed on the Denver Broncos. Um, we
3:26
Speaker 1: got lucky on that one, brother, Yeah we did. We
3:28
Speaker 1: should not have come even close to push. No, but
3:30
Speaker 1: it's a wash because we should have won the Pittsburgh game.
3:33
Speaker 1: That's even a two touchdown leading the fourth quarter. All right,
3:36
Speaker 1: you you were right for the wrong reasons. You were
3:38
Speaker 1: high on the Browns. The Browns still stink, They're still terrible.
3:42
Speaker 1: The Steelers did everything in their power to give that
3:44
Speaker 1: game away in Cleveland, still couldn't win it. Here's the truth, Blackjack,
3:47
Speaker 1: and I say this often on my UH podcast with
3:51
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, which you can live podcasts. That's three. You
3:55
Speaker 1: can listen to all three of the Favorites podcasts on Monday,
3:57
Speaker 1: Wednesday and Friday. On Wednesdays, I do it with obscuoci
4:00
Speaker 1: the bookmaker to the world UH. And as we often say,
4:06
Speaker 1: the right side is the winning side. So there is
4:09
Speaker 1: no should have won. We didn't win, and now we
4:12
Speaker 1: got to win. Well, we also shouldn't have lost the
4:14
Speaker 1: Denver game. Though we did lose the Denver game. It
4:18
Speaker 1: was a push m push as good as a loss
4:21
Speaker 1: in this game. Didn't win, didn't get any money. Are
4:25
Speaker 1: you want to move on? A week two. It's time
4:28
Speaker 1: to roll Georgina. What do you got cheese at Steelers
4:33
Speaker 1: Steelers by four. Yeah, I gotta go with the Steelers
4:39
Speaker 1: on this one. So here's why, here's why this is
4:44
Speaker 1: Week two is over reaction week. So last week, the
4:48
Speaker 1: Steelers push, the Steelers tie the Browns. They were anywhere
4:52
Speaker 1: from six and a half to three and a half
4:54
Speaker 1: point favorites before that game started. They were up by
4:56
Speaker 1: fourteen points in the fourth quarter of a game that
4:59
Speaker 1: was being played in terrible conditions, and they kind of
5:01
Speaker 1: just shipped the bed right. They had some bad turnovers,
5:04
Speaker 1: couldn't get out of the Browns half of the field,
5:07
Speaker 1: really couldn't get out of the twenty yard line, and
5:11
Speaker 1: the Browns made the right place and they tied the game,
5:13
Speaker 1: and they ended up tying the game after the overtime.
5:16
Speaker 1: Kansas City comes out and beats a team that had
5:20
Speaker 1: huge public sentiment in the Chargers. Uh and Mahomes looked amazing.
5:25
Speaker 1: I think this line started. It started at I think
5:28
Speaker 1: the Steelers were five and a half. Then it got
5:30
Speaker 1: that down to five. Now it's at four in the
5:32
Speaker 1: super Contest lines, and just for everybody's sake, so they
5:35
Speaker 1: know Super contest lines are set and like they don't change.
5:38
Speaker 1: So these lines are moving all over the place. We're
5:40
Speaker 1: only betting against super contest lines on this podcast. I
5:43
Speaker 1: like the Steelers minus four. I leaned that way. Um,
5:47
Speaker 1: I think, to your credit, everything you just said is right.
5:51
Speaker 1: It's over reaction. Everyone is gonna look at what Kansas
5:54
Speaker 1: City didn't say. You know, they have this dynamic offense.
5:56
Speaker 1: My homes through the ball all over the place. The
5:58
Speaker 1: Steelers just absolutely tried to give that game away. I
6:04
Speaker 1: leen Pittsburgh. I'm just not sold on it quite yet.
6:07
Speaker 1: So that's a maybe. First so of the picks to
6:11
Speaker 1: win one point four million dollars, that is a maybe.
6:15
Speaker 1: I'm looking right now because I'm looking at the Action
6:16
Speaker 1: Network app, which has so much good stuff. We can
6:18
Speaker 1: see great app. It's a great app. And we can
6:20
Speaker 1: see like the number of tickets being better on each game.
6:24
Speaker 1: We can see the percentage of the money on each game.
6:26
Speaker 1: We can see the bet volume on in each game.
6:28
Speaker 1: Right now, in this game, this is the most heavily
6:31
Speaker 1: bet game, of the money of the tickets are coming
6:36
Speaker 1: in in Kansas City. Of the money are coming in
6:39
Speaker 1: Kansas City. That's what worries me a little bit because
6:43
Speaker 1: of the money. Normally the money indicates wise guy action,
6:48
Speaker 1: but I thought I think that action was coming in
6:49
Speaker 1: at like when it was said at five. Yeah, I
6:52
Speaker 1: said that that line has moved all over the place.
6:55
Speaker 1: And actually I said to Scooch on the on the
6:57
Speaker 1: Wednesday podcast, Um, if this game got to three and
7:00
Speaker 1: a half or four, it would be hard for me
7:02
Speaker 1: not to bet this here. Yeah, at four, I I
7:04
Speaker 1: lean that way, all right. I wouldn't have liked it
7:06
Speaker 1: at five. It's a maybe. It's a maybe Indian Atlace
7:10
Speaker 1: at Washington, Skins by six. I like the Colts here.
7:15
Speaker 1: As you mentioned over reaction use zig when everyone else
7:18
Speaker 1: z eggs right. Everyone saw the Colts flues to the Bengals.
7:21
Speaker 1: They saw the Redskins go out in Arizona, put up
7:24
Speaker 1: a very nice offensive performance. Everyone likes the Redskins here.
7:28
Speaker 1: I like the Colts. Colts and six points six to
7:31
Speaker 1: me is the number I like this game at. I
7:32
Speaker 1: didn't really like it at lower than that, but it's six.
7:35
Speaker 1: I think that there's a lot of value in the Colts.
7:37
Speaker 1: They will score all right. Andrew Luck looks like he's
7:40
Speaker 1: kind of back to himself. I think the Colts will
7:42
Speaker 1: be able to put up enough points. Alex Smith will
7:45
Speaker 1: be reliable, He'll get the Redskins down the field. But
7:47
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be a big play offense, not gonna
7:49
Speaker 1: run away with this thing. Everyone's jumping on the Redskins.
7:53
Speaker 1: I like the Colts. Here's what worries me. I agree,
7:57
Speaker 1: I completely agree. Um, I think the Beers are making
8:02
Speaker 1: you a little soft. But here's my thinking on this. Also, like,
8:06
Speaker 1: here's my thing, here's my thing. I watched that Bengals
8:11
Speaker 1: close game last week because it was the only game
8:13
Speaker 1: we were winning, and it was the game that I
8:14
Speaker 1: forced you to choose. And um, I was desperately nervous
8:19
Speaker 1: that Andrew Luck was gonna win that game and it
8:22
Speaker 1: was gonna being a push for us, like they were
8:24
Speaker 1: up what they were Upree, No, I forgot what I
8:29
Speaker 1: think the Bengals. And Andrew Luck was driving the ball.
8:33
Speaker 1: If that if that tight end Jack Jack Doyle doesn't
8:37
Speaker 1: fumble the ball, Uh, I think they're gonna score touchdown,
8:40
Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna win that game. And Andrew
8:44
Speaker 1: Luck just looked like Andrew Luck. And this game is
8:47
Speaker 1: inflated for two reasons. The Colts lost to the Bengals
8:51
Speaker 1: as favorites, and the Redskins beat up on the Cardinals
8:54
Speaker 1: on the road, and so you're getting just like these huge,
8:58
Speaker 1: huge numbers coming out that are just way way off.
9:03
Speaker 1: I think this is a yes for us. I think
9:05
Speaker 1: so two. I like the Cults. Plus, I think we've
9:07
Speaker 1: got one game. Colts plus six. Georgina tell us about
9:11
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles at Buccaneers. Eagles by three and a half.
9:18
Speaker 1: I want no part of this. I hate this game.
9:20
Speaker 1: Wow do I hate this game. I want no part
9:23
Speaker 1: of this. It's so interesting because this is a game
9:26
Speaker 1: where before the Week one games were played, the Eagles
9:30
Speaker 1: would have been six point favorites, and the Eagles look
9:34
Speaker 1: like crap against the Falcons and Tampa Bay right offensively,
9:38
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay blows up the Saints, who including everyone thinks,
9:41
Speaker 1: including myself, could be a Super Bowl contender. I haven't
9:43
Speaker 1: been win the Super Bowl. So this game is now
9:46
Speaker 1: at three and a half. Um, Tampa Bay Buccaneers are
9:50
Speaker 1: underdogs at home. Here's what worries me about this again.
9:52
Speaker 1: I'm going to look at our Action Network app right,
9:54
Speaker 1: because one of the things that bugs me, that that
9:56
Speaker 1: worries me is when you got a game where of
9:59
Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the road favorite historically
10:04
Speaker 1: the president there is that the is that the home
10:07
Speaker 1: underdog covers. And so as much as I like the
10:10
Speaker 1: Eagles and they are the better team in every scenario,
10:13
Speaker 1: I cannot bet against the Buccaneers in this scenario. I
10:15
Speaker 1: can't bet against any team in this scenario. I just
10:19
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say I can't against this in any scenario,
10:22
Speaker 1: but in this scenario this makes me nervous. And I
10:24
Speaker 1: don't really know why, because you look at this is
10:27
Speaker 1: one of those trap lines, right like you look at
10:28
Speaker 1: it Philly minus three, and it feels like there's a layup,
10:31
Speaker 1: right but it's not, and you know it's not going
10:33
Speaker 1: to be a layup. I don't know Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's
10:36
Speaker 1: got magic in that beard. I don't know what's going
10:38
Speaker 1: on with him, but I'm not going against him right now.
10:41
Speaker 1: And I'm also just not comfortable taking Tampa. I want
10:43
Speaker 1: to know part of this, Georgina. Let's go to the
10:46
Speaker 1: next game. Dolphins at j E t asked Jets to
10:51
Speaker 1: it Hu. That sounds like someone who's married to a
10:55
Speaker 1: Jets fan. That's what I'm sorry. The way that she
11:00
Speaker 1: said that, Um, this is an interesting game. Look, I
11:05
Speaker 1: think the bookmakers posted a bad line. This game opened
11:09
Speaker 1: at Jets minus three, and that was entirely because the
11:12
Speaker 1: Jets beat the crap out of the Lions Onner Night
11:14
Speaker 1: Football and immediately got that down to two and a half.
11:17
Speaker 1: And that's what the west Gate posted because they posted
11:19
Speaker 1: him on you know, Wednesday night. Um, I like the
11:24
Speaker 1: Dolphins at three. I don't like him at two and
11:25
Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, I God, damn it, I agree with
11:28
Speaker 1: you again. Um yeah, the the look aheadline on this
11:32
Speaker 1: was a pick. It was a pick, and then the
11:35
Speaker 1: Jets blew the Lions out. Went to three. Seriously, now
11:38
Speaker 1: it's two and a half. At three, I bet the
11:40
Speaker 1: Dolphins at three. I took the three about them. But
11:42
Speaker 1: at two and a half, I don't know. I think
11:46
Speaker 1: instinctively I think the Dolphins win this game. I don't
11:49
Speaker 1: think the Jets start two and oh. But I don't
11:53
Speaker 1: want to wager one point four million dollars. Not it's
11:55
Speaker 1: not a one point four million dollar wager for me. No,
11:58
Speaker 1: it's not there. Oh boy. Georgie challenges at Bill's Challenges
12:07
Speaker 1: by seven. I liked it last week when she would say,
12:10
Speaker 1: Los Angeles, can we get her to start saying that again?
12:14
Speaker 1: Production note, yeah, can the producers get on that please.
12:24
Speaker 1: That sound is Blackjack vaping because it's not enough to
12:28
Speaker 1: crack open two beers at nine thirty in the morning.
12:32
Speaker 1: He needs his mango flavored nicotine to really get himself
12:36
Speaker 1: going to make the best decisions possible. This is this
12:40
Speaker 1: is what you want out of me, all right? You
12:41
Speaker 1: want me at my peak, and my peak is slightly inebriated.
12:47
Speaker 1: I also love how like you're barely button in your
12:50
Speaker 1: shirt right now. I'm got undo some more if you like,
12:54
Speaker 1: get this real sexy, get a real sexy in here. Um.
13:01
Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Chargers are at Buffalo the Josh Allen's
13:07
Speaker 1: This is a train wreck of a team train wreck.
13:11
Speaker 1: Who's the Chargers? Yeah, no, the Bills. And this is
13:13
Speaker 1: also one of those games where you're gonna get the world.
13:16
Speaker 1: You're gonna get a road favorite. That is getting of
13:19
Speaker 1: the action against a huge that's a bullshit. It's not
13:25
Speaker 1: that that's like spend three days in Vegas. That is
13:29
Speaker 1: the squarest thing. Ever. That's what everybody says when they're
13:33
Speaker 1: talking about these games, like, well, the ten o'clock star
13:36
Speaker 1: for this team. You don't know that because you don't
13:38
Speaker 1: You're sitting there up and your mansion, coge Connecticut, playing
13:43
Speaker 1: Mr Mom. You don't know what it's like in the
13:44
Speaker 1: real world. I know in the real world, if someone
13:52
Speaker 1: tested that theory, which you could go do through beat Labs,
13:56
Speaker 1: which is uh is that a part of the Action network,
13:58
Speaker 1: part of the Action network, you would know that, like
14:01
Speaker 1: the whole idea of West Coast teams. It's a fallacy.
14:05
Speaker 1: You know why. You know why you just said fallacy.
14:08
Speaker 1: I said fallacy, right, it's a little fallacy. Bookmakers build
14:14
Speaker 1: that into the line. Okay, are you getting to a
14:18
Speaker 1: point here? I don't want anything to do with this game.
14:22
Speaker 1: Eight percent of the money, eighty eight percent of the
14:27
Speaker 1: money are in the chargers. And this spread, like in
14:31
Speaker 1: Actuality outside of the West Gate the Super Contest, which
14:34
Speaker 1: have fixed lines once they print them, the spread in
14:36
Speaker 1: this game is now nine nine. Yep. Can we just
14:40
Speaker 1: walk the funk away from this game? We can run
14:43
Speaker 1: away from it all. Right, here's a problem, black Chack.
14:47
Speaker 1: Right now we are five games in. We need to
14:52
Speaker 1: make four more. We need to agree on four more
14:55
Speaker 1: games to win one point four million dollars. Time to
14:58
Speaker 1: be selective. Chad Houston at Tennessee, pick him, you got Houston.
15:08
Speaker 1: I mean I feel like I don't. I don't love it.
15:10
Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of conviction behind it. Tennessee
15:13
Speaker 1: is a mess. I think we saw that with the
15:14
Speaker 1: Miami game. Mariota banged up a little bit. They say
15:17
Speaker 1: he's okay, but he lost to Laney Walker at it's
15:20
Speaker 1: a huge loss for them. I mean, who's he throwing
15:23
Speaker 1: the ball to? Who is catching the ball out of
15:25
Speaker 1: that backfield? And if we know one thing about the
15:27
Speaker 1: Texans defense, it's tough to run on them that they've
15:30
Speaker 1: got a massive front. So Derrick Henry is gonna struggle
15:33
Speaker 1: a little bit. You know. Deshaun Watson was a step slow.
15:36
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna take him a little bit too
15:38
Speaker 1: to shake the rust off. But at a pick, I
15:41
Speaker 1: would leave the Houston here. You know what's interesting like this?
15:46
Speaker 1: The Texans are the other team that I bought a
15:47
Speaker 1: Super Bowl ticket on That was silly, and um, I'm
15:51
Speaker 1: being generous. I loved them so much last week against
15:57
Speaker 1: the Patriots, and they now good, no, not good, really ugly,
16:03
Speaker 1: um as ugly as what I'm looking at right now,
16:06
Speaker 1: and I will tell you it's I'm feeling a little burned,
16:10
Speaker 1: but you're probably right. I think this is the right side.
16:12
Speaker 1: I think you made some cogent analysis. They're black jack.
16:17
Speaker 1: I know it, did I say that's a yes, all right?
16:23
Speaker 1: We got two big right now. We like the Indianapolis
16:26
Speaker 1: Colts plus six and the Houston Texans at pick them.
16:30
Speaker 1: And when I say it out loud and think, wow,
16:32
Speaker 1: we are on the Colts and the Texans to win
16:34
Speaker 1: one point four million dollars on the right side, think
16:37
Speaker 1: to myself, I think that we are going to not
16:43
Speaker 1: win one point four million dollars onto the next games
16:48
Speaker 1: at Falcons Falcons By, says Georgina on that one sounded
16:55
Speaker 1: like she was not in the mood to give us
16:57
Speaker 1: the line. And I'm not gonna bet this game. It's
16:59
Speaker 1: not gonna be one of our I agree, it's not
17:02
Speaker 1: gonna be one of our five. I can you're buttoning
17:04
Speaker 1: up now a little bit? Are you getting chili? This
17:06
Speaker 1: is draft in here. I don't want you to see
17:08
Speaker 1: with nips getting hard. Yeah, I agree, this is a
17:10
Speaker 1: bad idea. Let's just walk away like there's nothing nothing
17:14
Speaker 1: about this game. I don't like the number. I don't
17:17
Speaker 1: trust Carolina yet, definitely don't trust the Falcons. The Falcons last.
17:21
Speaker 1: Their best linebacker, Um greg Olsen, probably isn't playing. I'm
17:25
Speaker 1: like see you later. Moving on Cleveland at New Orleans
17:31
Speaker 1: Saints by eight and a half, what was wrong with Georgie? There?
17:36
Speaker 1: You have three guys with beers looking at me like,
17:39
Speaker 1: I don't know. All right, listen, Saints, Saints, You're gonna
17:44
Speaker 1: destroy the Browns in this game. They are so going
17:47
Speaker 1: to destroy the Browns in this game. It's gonna be like, wait,
17:51
Speaker 1: what what does that say about the Steelers? What does
17:54
Speaker 1: that say about the Bucks? What does that say about
17:56
Speaker 1: the Saints. It's gonna tell us everything we need to
17:58
Speaker 1: know about the Browns this game. Ame is so going
18:03
Speaker 1: to be dominated by the Saints. At eight and a half,
18:09
Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like I've just I feel
18:11
Speaker 1: like I'm freaking Danny Ocean man, I have just stolen
18:14
Speaker 1: money from the West Gate. I don't know. I don't
18:18
Speaker 1: know if I can't even say what I think. I
18:21
Speaker 1: think I like Cleveland. I think I like Cleveland. The
18:30
Speaker 1: Saints got I mean the Saints. Listen, they put up
18:34
Speaker 1: a bunch of points last week against the Bucks defense
18:37
Speaker 1: that is not as good as this Brown's defense. The
18:40
Speaker 1: Browns defense is better than Tampa's defense. I think it's actually,
18:43
Speaker 1: don't even think it's close. Ryan Fitzpatrick did a reasonably
18:49
Speaker 1: competent job, and he put up four hundred in something
18:53
Speaker 1: yards and four touchdowns and ran for another one. If
18:55
Speaker 1: they give up a rushing touchdown of Ryan Fitzpatrick, what
18:57
Speaker 1: the hell is Tyrod Taylor going to do to them?
19:00
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, he didn't look great in his first
19:03
Speaker 1: week in the Brown's uniform, but the weather was crap.
19:06
Speaker 1: It's his first game in a new system. I don't
19:09
Speaker 1: know that the Browns can win this game. I don't
19:11
Speaker 1: think they can, but I think they can keep it
19:14
Speaker 1: within eight and a half. Maybe I hate myself a
19:18
Speaker 1: little right now. Well, now you know how the rest
19:23
Speaker 1: of us feel. Shop we can't do it. If we were,
19:27
Speaker 1: we are so I hate it. I hate you know,
19:30
Speaker 1: I love the Saints. I love the Saints. I can't
19:32
Speaker 1: do it. We are Barack Obama and Donald Trump in
19:35
Speaker 1: this scenario. Have we talked about when I met Obama,
19:40
Speaker 1: when you met Trump? You just told me Donald Trump
19:42
Speaker 1: is your favorite American president and this story. I told
19:46
Speaker 1: you you're sitting here wearing and making America great again.
19:49
Speaker 1: Happy Republicans and Democrats all bet and listen to podcasts.
19:56
Speaker 1: I make no political affiliations. And you were just going
19:59
Speaker 1: to tell about the time you met one. I am
20:01
Speaker 1: the Michael Jordan's of podcasts. How many times did you
20:04
Speaker 1: meet that president Barack Obama? Oh? I didn't say his name,
20:07
Speaker 1: but how many times did you meet him? I've met
20:09
Speaker 1: him twice. That must have been fun. Yeah. Great, Let's
20:13
Speaker 1: move on Vikings at Packings Vikings by seven. Come on, man,
20:23
Speaker 1: don't don't do that. That's fucking awful. What is this?
20:29
Speaker 1: I don't know. This line is bizarre. I don't know
20:31
Speaker 1: what to make of this. It's a one. It's it's
20:33
Speaker 1: Green Bay minus one or pick everywhere else. The west Gate,
20:36
Speaker 1: I guess, is factoring in that Rogers either may not
20:39
Speaker 1: play or won't be very effective, and they're going Green
20:43
Speaker 1: Bay plus seven. I don't think we can play this game.
20:46
Speaker 1: There's too much uncertainty. We don't know anything yet. No,
20:49
Speaker 1: let's move on Cardinals at Rams rams by twelve and
20:55
Speaker 1: huh I like this one. I love this one. I
21:01
Speaker 1: so love this one. This to me, This to me
21:06
Speaker 1: is like the greatest example in the history of examples
21:12
Speaker 1: of overreaction of the two overreaction. This game should be
21:17
Speaker 1: like in the Action Network. On the Action Network right
21:20
Speaker 1: now you can go to our latest NFL Power ratings
21:24
Speaker 1: and we have a story that is about the overreactions
21:27
Speaker 1: to week one. This game should be is Power rated
21:31
Speaker 1: Rams by nine right now, it's Rams by twelve and
21:36
Speaker 1: a half. That is super contest half and it's it
21:43
Speaker 1: is ridiculous. It is so ridiculous. Let's get the real
21:45
Speaker 1: line right now, right now, two touchdowns on an NFL game.
21:50
Speaker 1: It's stupid. It's oh my god, right now, right now,
21:54
Speaker 1: this line in real life is Rams minus fourteen. Are
21:59
Speaker 1: you kidding me? I've bet it on the damn train
22:01
Speaker 1: on the way and it was thirteen and a half.
22:03
Speaker 1: I bet it. I bet it yesterday and it was
22:07
Speaker 1: It's crazy. I mean, come on, of course, we're taking
22:10
Speaker 1: the Cardinals in this game to ching me out. Man,
22:14
Speaker 1: we are onto the next game. Nons at nine is
22:19
Speaker 1: nine is giving six. We need to we need to
22:24
Speaker 1: find two more games. What do you got here? I
22:29
Speaker 1: don't like either of these games, I guess I guess
22:32
Speaker 1: I leaned to the Niners Detroit. You talked about overreactions.
22:36
Speaker 1: There's one. See Jimmy Garoppolo throw three picks on Sunday
22:40
Speaker 1: to see that, No, but you know what I did
22:42
Speaker 1: see that everyone who had him penciled in for the
22:43
Speaker 1: m v P three interceptions on Sunday. Do you know
22:45
Speaker 1: what I did see? I saw every single time Red
22:49
Speaker 1: Zone went to that game. The Niners had the ball
22:54
Speaker 1: in position to win the game and didn't score, but
22:58
Speaker 1: he kept it close. Oh, look at Jimmy g keeping
23:04
Speaker 1: it close. I saw Matthew Stafford. He had a bad game.
23:11
Speaker 1: It's almost like it's almost like Matt Stafford's got a
23:14
Speaker 1: track record the Jets around his team. He's a proven commodity,
23:16
Speaker 1: a proven commodity of a guy who's going to throw
23:18
Speaker 1: it for a lot of yards and not win you
23:20
Speaker 1: any games our own. Jeff Schwartz says he's a Hall
23:22
Speaker 1: of Fame quarterback. Jeff Schwartz when I and I called
23:25
Speaker 1: him on that, and I'm like, that's the stupidest thing
23:29
Speaker 1: I've heard that day. That's what I said that day.
23:32
Speaker 1: Listen to you, knowing people well hearing things. I could
23:37
Speaker 1: have said it was the stupidest thing I've ever heard,
23:38
Speaker 1: But I knew I was gonna be doing a podcast
23:40
Speaker 1: with you. Listen to this guy. He's got jokes today,
23:46
Speaker 1: trying to fight his way out of that locker. Moving on,
23:50
Speaker 1: Patriots at Jaguars. I bet the Jaguars in this game.
23:57
Speaker 1: You're an idiot, You're a goddamned it. We did this
24:02
Speaker 1: last week. Do you need me to do it again
24:05
Speaker 1: last week? The Jaguars defense, don't say Jaguars, you're not British.
24:09
Speaker 1: The Jaguars januar ridiculously good. Uh ridiculously. I don't think
24:17
Speaker 1: the Patriots were challenged last week by the Texans. I
24:20
Speaker 1: think the Jaguars have a much better Jaguars barely squeaked
24:23
Speaker 1: out a game against the Giants, much better inside push
24:27
Speaker 1: that can stop anything the Patriots did against the Texans.
24:33
Speaker 1: The hardest thing for the Texans to stop was Tom
24:36
Speaker 1: Brady because he releases the ball in under two seconds,
24:38
Speaker 1: so you can't have J. J. Watt rushing from the
24:41
Speaker 1: edge thinking he's going to get there in time. They
24:43
Speaker 1: needed to move J. J. Watt inside. So you don't
24:46
Speaker 1: think that Bill Belichick realizes that that's his weakness and
24:49
Speaker 1: their strength and will have some sort of counter for that.
24:53
Speaker 1: You think the greatest football mind of any generation is
24:57
Speaker 1: just gonna say, let's see what happens. So we're not
25:01
Speaker 1: betting on this game. How many times do you have
25:04
Speaker 1: to miss money on the Patriots? How many times do
25:07
Speaker 1: you need to be smacked in the space by Tom
25:11
Speaker 1: Brady's greatness? How many times does Bill Belichick have to
25:15
Speaker 1: not only have his OPU scheme you How many times
25:20
Speaker 1: has it happened before you get some sense in that
25:24
Speaker 1: thick donkey and realized Patriots do not lose and they
25:31
Speaker 1: do miss on spread three cover them thirteen and three
25:35
Speaker 1: last year. It's the most profitable team since two thousand
25:38
Speaker 1: and three, And you want to keep betting against them?
25:42
Speaker 1: Open your damn eyes. Patriots by a million, that's probably
25:50
Speaker 1: gonna be a non Start drinking again. Did you what
26:00
Speaker 1: do you got for US Raiders at Broncos? Denver by six?
26:07
Speaker 1: I like Denver, don't love it me too? No, moving on,
26:12
Speaker 1: You might want to put some of these maybes because
26:13
Speaker 1: we're running out of space. I know exactly what we're
26:15
Speaker 1: gonna do we have I think I do we have
26:19
Speaker 1: our fifth pick? I think we do We have our
26:22
Speaker 1: fifth pick. What's the next one? Giants said, Dallas Cowboys
26:26
Speaker 1: by field goal, Giants wrapped the show. Let's go, We're done.
26:32
Speaker 1: That is that is such a yes for me, It's
26:39
Speaker 1: not even funny. We can give the reasons, like the
26:42
Speaker 1: first thing I bet, I bet it, bet it. On
26:45
Speaker 1: Monday morning when I came into the office, I took
26:48
Speaker 1: Giants that went up to three and a half. I
26:49
Speaker 1: took Giants at three and a half. It's a joke.
26:52
Speaker 1: That should be a pick. It's it's unbelievable. The Cowboys
26:55
Speaker 1: looked horrible and speaking to Jeff Schwartz, he wrote a
26:58
Speaker 1: story on Action Network. He does his story like in
27:00
Speaker 1: the Trenches, and it's all about like how to make
27:02
Speaker 1: bets based on what he's seen an offensive line play.
27:05
Speaker 1: And he did this great bakedown of the Cowboys about
27:08
Speaker 1: how much they miss their center, Travis Frederick. Right, they
27:12
Speaker 1: had no communication, missed a bunch of big plays. That
27:15
Speaker 1: is not something you make up in a week. I
27:17
Speaker 1: think Dak Prescott looks confused, don't throw too but looked.
27:22
Speaker 1: It was a glaring absence of playmakers on that offense
27:25
Speaker 1: against Carolina. And I watched almost the entirety of the
27:29
Speaker 1: Giants count the Giants Jaguars game. I wasn't deterred on
27:34
Speaker 1: my stance on the Giants by that game. First of all,
27:36
Speaker 1: the Jaguars have a great defense, and they were any
27:39
Speaker 1: line Manning's kitchen all day long. He still managed to
27:42
Speaker 1: get the ball out. Beckham got his eleven catches over
27:46
Speaker 1: a hundred yards, Barkley got his, I Sterling Shepard made
27:49
Speaker 1: some nice plays, and the Giants defense looked really good.
27:53
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think they go in here and win
27:55
Speaker 1: this thing out right. I don't. This line to me
27:57
Speaker 1: is bizarre. I believe everything you. I agree with every
28:01
Speaker 1: single thing you just said about the Giants, like which
28:04
Speaker 1: is also why I'm bett in the Jaguars. The Jaguars
28:06
Speaker 1: are an incredible team. They are a great defense. They
28:10
Speaker 1: are a great defense. And I don't hold on, hold on,
28:12
Speaker 1: you just said they're an incredible team. I'll give you.
28:16
Speaker 1: The defense is really good. Leonard four nance banged up, alright,
28:19
Speaker 1: he's got a busting out. Ham straight and Blake boardless
28:23
Speaker 1: is the quarter. Listen to me, to me, Tom Brady,
28:28
Speaker 1: I backtracked. I said incredible defense. Maybe backtrack to do that. Well,
28:32
Speaker 1: have a drink. I'm going to. My point is like
28:35
Speaker 1: I'm not discouraged by what I saw in that first game.
28:38
Speaker 1: We're on the Giants. Yes, we got four games. Right now,
28:43
Speaker 1: we have one. Maybe we have Seattle at Chicago. Let's
28:49
Speaker 1: see where you are on this one, Mr Chicago. Let
28:52
Speaker 1: Georgina take us in Seahawks at Bears, Chicago by three
28:58
Speaker 1: and a half. You know what the right side is here?
29:02
Speaker 1: It's Seattle. Yeah, I can do that. Wow, that was easy.
29:06
Speaker 1: Why do you think it's the right side. I don't
29:08
Speaker 1: think it's Let's let me tisten it. Look before you
29:10
Speaker 1: answer the question. I don't think it's about the teams.
29:13
Speaker 1: I think it's about the number. The three and a
29:16
Speaker 1: half makes it for me much juicier. But if you
29:19
Speaker 1: go back, I think people are over impressed with that
29:21
Speaker 1: Green Bay game for the Bears. If you look at
29:24
Speaker 1: their first fift team plays, which were the scripted plays
29:27
Speaker 1: they ran the Bears in the preseason, Randy very vanilla offense.
29:30
Speaker 1: They didn't do a hell of a lot. They didn't
29:32
Speaker 1: show a hell of a lot. They come out in
29:33
Speaker 1: Green Bay, They've got a lot of motion guys going
29:36
Speaker 1: in different places and Trabinsky his first read was almost
29:40
Speaker 1: always open. After those fifteen plays, it was a little
29:44
Speaker 1: bit of a different offense, all right. When Trabinsky had
29:46
Speaker 1: to go to different reads. It wasn't always pretty. I
29:51
Speaker 1: think that the Bears did a good job of getting
29:53
Speaker 1: out of the gates quick. But now now this tape
29:55
Speaker 1: on that, now the Seahawks can prepare for it. They're
29:58
Speaker 1: a veteran team. The try veling on the road is
30:00
Speaker 1: not gonna be a big deal for them. I think
30:03
Speaker 1: Seattle is going to be right in this thing. Man,
30:05
Speaker 1: They're they're right in this game. I think people are
30:07
Speaker 1: gonna overreact to be too high on the Bears, too
30:10
Speaker 1: low on Seattle. This needs to meet in the middle.
30:12
Speaker 1: I like the three and a half. What did you
30:14
Speaker 1: see in Seattle against the Broncos that makes you feel
30:19
Speaker 1: good about betting on them, because like I didn't. It's
30:21
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, man, That's what it comes down to. Like
30:23
Speaker 1: the guy. It doesn't look Their offensive line is terrible.
30:27
Speaker 1: It is awful. He is literally running for his life
30:29
Speaker 1: back there, but he seems to be at his best
30:31
Speaker 1: when he does it. He's no matter who's catching the ball,
30:35
Speaker 1: he finds ways to make plays. Russell Wilson does one thing, really,
30:39
Speaker 1: really well, maybe better than almost anyone outside of Tom Brady.
30:43
Speaker 1: He keeps you in games. When's the last time Seahawks
30:46
Speaker 1: got blown out? It doesn't happen. He keeps them alive.
30:50
Speaker 1: And the Bears are a young team with a young
30:52
Speaker 1: quarterback and a new head coach. I don't see them
30:54
Speaker 1: as the kind of team coming out and stepping on
30:56
Speaker 1: Seattle's throat if they if they do win this game,
30:58
Speaker 1: which I think they could, it's going to be a
31:01
Speaker 1: tooth and mail battle. I think it's the right numbers.
31:06
Speaker 1: It's all about the hook to me, three and a half.
31:09
Speaker 1: I like it, black deck. All right, So let's recap
31:14
Speaker 1: for a second here, because we have five games that
31:16
Speaker 1: we like, right, five terrifying games. Terrifying games, right, But
31:20
Speaker 1: we have these games we have right now, Indianapolis Colts
31:25
Speaker 1: at the Washington Redskins. They are six point dogs. We
31:28
Speaker 1: are on the Colts. We have the Houston Texans visiting Tennessee.
31:33
Speaker 1: The game is pick We like Houston. We have the
31:36
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals visiting the Rams. The number is twelve and
31:39
Speaker 1: a half. The Cardinals are twelve and a half point dogs.
31:41
Speaker 1: We are on the Cardinals. We have the New York
31:45
Speaker 1: Football Giants at the Dallas Cowboys. They are three point
31:48
Speaker 1: underdogs to the Cowboys. We like the Giants. And then, uh,
31:52
Speaker 1: we have the Seahawks visiting the Bears. The Bears are
31:54
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites. We like the Seahawks.
31:57
Speaker 1: What I'm also noticing he is like away, we are
32:01
Speaker 1: going to be sweating on Sunday night and Monday night. Also,
32:05
Speaker 1: the name of the show is the Favorites, and we
32:06
Speaker 1: haven't taken one. So that's interesting. Little side note, that
32:10
Speaker 1: is very interesting. Those are lots like I feel good
32:14
Speaker 1: about those. I like him. I'm gonna say this right now.
32:16
Speaker 1: If the Tennessee Titans screw us again in the first
32:20
Speaker 1: two weeks, I am done with this team for the
32:22
Speaker 1: rest of the season. You need to be on board.
32:24
Speaker 1: I will not play a single game there, not often. Well.
32:26
Speaker 1: I don't even like Listen, I'm not I don't even
32:29
Speaker 1: like saying the word the Titans, like does that even
32:32
Speaker 1: mean relevant to Tennessee. I don't know. It's not nonsense. Uh, Listen,
32:40
Speaker 1: I think we've come to conclusion. Yeah, I think we have.
32:42
Speaker 1: There's not enough to say. Nope, This has been The Favorites,
32:47
Speaker 1: the Super Contest edition. Please listen on Monday morning when
32:51
Speaker 1: you can hear me and Paul L. Duca and Jeff Schwartz,
32:53
Speaker 1: former professional athletes. We will come up with our big
32:57
Speaker 1: bets for the following week. You can keep track of
33:00
Speaker 1: those all week long. Listen on Wednesdays to me and Scooch.
33:03
Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman of the Action Network. My friend
33:05
Speaker 1: black Jack Fletcher joined me on this podcast. Thanks for
33:08
Speaker 1: listening to the Favorites.