Latest / The Land Development Podcast with Ryan Glick / Industry News: Boomers Set to Free Up 13.9 Million Homes, FHA Backs Build-to-Rent, and Consumer Confidence Falls - TLP197

Transcript

Industry News: Boomers Set to Free Up 13.9 Million Homes, FHA Backs Build-to-Rent, and Consumer Confidence Falls - TLP197 · The Land Development Podcast with Ryan Glick

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: The the demand didn't go away, as best we can tell.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: So there's going to be, at some point in the next couple of years, there's going to be a really big opportunity in both of those spaces for people who can work on those entitlements and work on those properties now.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: So when that demand is back, and it seems almost inevitable that it will be, as those units that are currently in construction or recently constructed, as those are absorbed, there's going to be a gap in what's been developed.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: And we all know that it takes time for these projects to happen.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: And so right now, there are less of these projects going into the pipeline in all stages.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, what's going on, everybody?
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome back to the Land Development Podcast.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: I am your host, Ryan Glick.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: We have an industry news episode for you today.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: And joining me as always is Charles Covey.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: We've got uh a few different things to get into, but I guess before we do that, I have a quick ask for everybody, just because uh it's been a minute since I've asked.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: I was just out there looking at Spotify and Apple, and I know we have so many people who are listening in.
• 1:11
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• 1:20
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• 1:24
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• 1:27
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• 1:32
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• 1:40
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• 1:48
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• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: So again, I appreciate all of you for listening in as always.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, if you take take the time to do that, I'd really appreciate it.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: But with that said, let's go ahead and take a quick peek at what we're gonna get into here today.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna start out today getting into boomers freeing up 13.9 million homes over the next 10 years.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: But the question is, will there be anybody who can afford those homes?
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: And then we're gonna look at the FHA now insuring build durant communities, and we're gonna close out with a look at consumer confidence.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: So, first article comes to us from Realtor.com and Wolf Street.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: Headline reads Boomers will free up 13.9 million homes.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: Will anyone move?
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: From realtor.com, closing time for a generation, aging owners will free up 13.9 million homes over the next decade.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: The generational housing handoff is underway.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: Over the next decade, baby boomers and members of the silent generation are expected to release 13.9 million homes, 34% more than older households did in the last 10 years, according to new research released today by Realtor.com.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: Family homes make up 9.9 million of the total, or 71.2%.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: Large homes see the biggest relative jump in supply.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: Only 0.38 million or 380,000 starter homes are expected to be relinquished by these older cohorts, in part because owners of smaller homes are more likely to have paid off their mortgages and stay put.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: As a result, the added supply is expected to ease prices gradually, mostly in family and large homes and in slower growing markets, not trigger a nationwide drop.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: Trade-up buyers could benefit from more choices and softer prices, which in turn frees up starter homes for new buyers.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: Now let's look at the flip side of this.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: So Realtor.com has more of a bullish outlook on things, saying that, hey, there's going to be more inventory out there, and now these entry-level buyers and move up buyers are going to have more stock to buy.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: Wolf Street says homeowners are clinging to their below 4% mortgages for deer life as mortgage rates went over 7%.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: Mortgages with rates below 3% edged down by just 10 points, 10 basis points to a share of 19.2% of all mortgages outstanding in Q2.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: It took a whole year to trim the share by just one percentage point from 20.2% in Q2 last year.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: So that process has essentially stalled.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: Homeowners might not move when they would otherwise move because they don't want to replace that 3% mortgage with an over 7% mortgage.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: And so sales of existing homes have plunged by about 25% from pre-pandemic times and have remained at those levels for for four years.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: And now, understandably, homeowners are clinging to their low interest mortgage rates for deer life.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: So quick look here, uh Charles, at a homeownership affordability gap chart.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so this one I think is very telling at the problem we're running into right now.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: So I know some of you aren't necessarily watching what we're showing here, but we have a chart that shows two lines on it.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, one shows the actual median household income, which steadily goes up.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: And then we have the qualified income for uh purchasing an actual home, which there is a large gap between those.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: There's a large gap back during the Great Recession, uh, around 2006 through 2008.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: It came back down pretty steady.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: The lines are pretty steady all the way up until roughly about 2001, 2000, or I'm sorry, 2021 and 2022.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: And then it's just almost double what it was like during the Great Recession.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: So anyway, a lot of stuff said there, Charles, but what what do you think we're gonna see here?
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't feel like what realtor.com is saying is a fact that, yeah, there's gonna be stock available, but my question, and I think the question a lot of people are asking is is anybody going to be able to afford that stock or is it just gonna sit there?
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Ryan, have you ever met a realtor that was negative about what it's like to buy a home right now?
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't matter what's going on.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Their hair can be on fire.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: There can be a tornado coming and like, hey, it's the best time to buy a home.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: That's just the nature of their business, right?
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: They're in sales.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: And so they're screaming right now, it's the best time to buy a home.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Not sure that's true.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: They were saying the same thing six months ago and 26 months ago and 36 months ago.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: All these times have always been the best time to buy a home.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: So anything that a realtor or realtor.com says, I would just be cognizant of and think through, think through what motivates them.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now, we've seen this happen in other places where you've get you get this glut essentially of aging, get get pretty much past 80, right?
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: So past 80, homeownership tends to drop.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Either they're they're moving in with family, they're going into some type of assisted living, and that that single family home is going to be available for somebody.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: But it's not a starter home, and that's the biggest gap that we have in the marketplace.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: It's usually, you know, this is their last home.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: So it's just maybe two or three or four moves to get to that house.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: And that's not the segment of the market that needs help.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: So it doesn't really add a tremendous amount of assistance from that standpoint.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: The numbers that I saw was that only about 3% of that 13, 14 million homes are starter home size.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: And that makes sense, right?
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Because people have worked their whole life to build up to a certain point, and the last home that they're leaving is not the same thing as that young family that needs a new home.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know that it's going to help the housing problem.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: What it might cause, and I think it's going to be if if we look at Japan as an example, Japan's got nine or 10 million empty houses vacated by their aging population.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's a very big gap in what happens in that situation.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: So in the rural areas and the smaller towns, they're just empty.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: They're not selling at any price.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody wants them.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: They can't give them away.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: And then you go into Tokyo or you go into some of the bigger cities, still high prices, those homes move immediately.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the U.S.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: is going to be that way.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: So again, this is another scenario.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: We talk about this all the time of saying, hey, the US housing, such and such, and in this case, 13 million homes across the US.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: We can't put those all in the same bucket.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: The lack of similarity there amongst those submarkets and markets is what really creates the gap.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: So in the major markets, are homes still going to sell and are there going to be plenty of people to absorb those?
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: I expect so.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: In the rural areas and the smaller towns, are those homes going to potentially be vacant in a scenario like Japan?
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's highly likely.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know that we'll have quite the extreme that Japan has just because our demographics aren't in that same extreme situation, but we can draw from that and know that, hey, there's going to be some similarities.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: Good chance that homes would have to sell at a very steep discount or maybe just not sell at all in that scenario where somebody vacates and there just isn't a buyer that wants it.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and we talked before we press recording.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: You just you said it there, like there would have to be most likely for for a correction here.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_01: And we we talked briefly about what was the correction that happened during the, you know, after the Great Recession to bring things back down to more closely aligned where people over time maybe could could afford a house at that point.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um I think a lot of people, a lot of millennials would tell you that they never were able to afford a house, you know, during that, you know, during or even after that time period.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: So even though the actual median household income and the qualified income necessary to um buy a home, even though they're overlapping for a period of time, I think a lot of those people never really had maybe a down payment saved up to be able to go out and get a mortgage or qualify for a mortgage.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, it feels like the prices of some of these homes are going to have to come down drastically.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: Like not, not, you know, a few thousand dollars here and a few thousand dollars there to just, you know, slightly lower the price.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: It feels like a correction is going to take something significant like that.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um we'll see.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, a lot of this is on the owners of these homes to be willing to do that um to get people to actually buy it.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, there's a lot of a lot of people who would like to get into their first home, but they don't qualify for anything near what's going to be out there.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: And as you mentioned, those move up, those move up uh homeowners that may be more in position to go out and buy some of these homes that will come on market, they are sitting on nice interest rates right now.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: And do they really want to go from paying$1,800 or$2,000 a month to$3,800 a month or$4,000 a month when they're comfortable where they're at?
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: So that those are going to be some of the questions we're gonna have to see how they play out.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's uh something to also think about.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Those retiring and aging boomers that are thinking, hey, you know, I've got all my money built into this house.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's a it's a$2 million house or a million and a half dollar house.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: This is this is my investment, this is my savings, this is my retirement.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's a very dangerous position to be in because that house that's worth what you have in it, in your mind, might not actually be worth that on the market.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's a scenario that we're gonna see, especially in the markets that are not major, that don't have all that momentum, that don't have a a huge list of buyers that are wanting a house, I think that's gonna be a problem because I think a a correction seems imminent in some of these.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: So then you have to look at what is what is the replacement cost plus a discount for age, and that might be the real value of your house, not this big number that you think based on some appreciation that's happened over the last number of years.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: So I would just be very cautious, those of us that have parents or others that are in that position and everything is hinging on them selling their house to go into an assisted living facility or something like that.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: That could not play out quite the way uh it's been planned.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: So I'd just be very cautious with how much value you've got tied up in that house and is that all you've got.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: Well, let's go ahead and move on to the next segment, which is from the comments.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: We've got a couple of them here.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: First one comes from a comment on Instagram.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, this was from, I think, one of the clips that of you, Charles, from our last episode where you were talking about parking uh requirements and everything.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_01: So this this uh comment comes from Edward Erfurt.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_01: That is the power of abolishing parking mandates.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_01: One simple rule change to unlock this opportunity.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_01: So this was you talking about all of the parking lots throughout the DFW area that could be repurposed for um some other use.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: And I know Edward is uh someone who is very much for getting rid of these uh parking mandates around the country for sure.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: Great one.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: Next one comes from TikTok from B Dog389.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I was thinking about when I was when I was reading these, when you read people's comments and everybody spells yeah or a little bit differently.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: You know, you have the YA, which you read them in your head probably differently, right?
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: If you see YA, you're like ya, you know, ya or whatever.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: So this is uh this guy used YA.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, my parents made about 20% less salary and rates were double, but the house that is now six hundred and sixty thousand dollars was forty-five thousand dollars.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: So again, this is from a clip from our last episode of you, Charles, where you were talking about, I think you were talking about your own parents who you know had a home on a single salary and rates were higher, but the price to get into that home was much lower and a much lower percentage of the actual salary.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: So definitely, yep, definitely spot on here.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's go ahead and get into our second article.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, this one comes to us from the HUD mortgage e letter.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: Um, FHA will now ensure build-to-rent communities.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: So from the U.S.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: Department of Housing and Urban Development, build-to-rent development underwriting eligibility.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so this is from their letter.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: Effective immediately, HUD will accept applications for mortgage insurance on multifamily rental properties that consist of detached single-family homes, duplexes or triplexes, commonly referred to as build-to-rent communities, formerly referred to as subdivisions for rent by HUD.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: HUD's Office of Multifamily Housing has traditionally limited its insurance loan or its insured loans to developments with buildings containing four or more units, such as garden style, mid-rise, or high-rise apartments, to align with evolving market dynamics, increased demand for rental housing for families unable to purchase homes, and the growing prevalence of professionally managed BTR communities, HUD is revising its policy to expand access to HUD insured financing for BTR developments.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: No sales of parcels, buildings, or any partial release of collateral will be approved during the insured loan term.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: And lastly, here, initial operating deficit estimates should be conservative, anticipating slower lease up for BTR communities than other traditional multifamily properties in the market.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: So I think as we went through that first article and we talked about what things are going to be like maybe on the for-sale single-family side, um, BTR definitely comes to mind.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: So when I saw this uh from the U.S.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: Department of Housing and Urban Development, it felt like something we should at least talk about.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what this does for you know those of you who are listening in and the types of projects you do and everything, but I I do think it's is something where we have to keep an eye on what asset classes, what type of housing is going to be most in demand in the future, whether that's going to be more of the BTR communities versus for sale single uh family, you know, development communities.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: Um any thoughts on this, Charles?
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: The theory here is that it would make it easier to finance BTR.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: You wouldn't have to go to outside of FHA.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: You wouldn't have to go outside of that traditional pipeline that we can use for multifamily.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: So that's great.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: That pools that now in with uh what most developers would use for multifamily to get lower rates, to get higher leverage, to help deals happen.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: So that in theory should be good.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think that BTR is having some struggles, as is multifamily.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: Some of that is interest rate driven, some of that is market-driven.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: We're seeing rents not climbing at the rate that they were, and that makes it harder to underwrite deals.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: So you take declining or stale, stagnant rents, you take higher interest rates, it just makes it tough for deals to pencil.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: So BTR has been hit just like just like multifamily.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: What that does create though, the the demand didn't go away, as best we can tell.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: So there's going to be, at some point in the next couple of years, there's going to be a really big opportunity in both of those spaces for people who can work on those entitlements and work on those properties now.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: So when that demand is back, and it seems almost inevitable that it will be, as those units that are currently in construction or recently constructed, as those are absorbed, there's going to be a gap in what's been developed.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_00: And we all know that it takes time for these projects to happen.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: And so right now, there are less of these projects going into the pipeline in all stages.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: And at some point, that gap is going to close and there's going to be a big demand for these to come back in.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: And that's an opportunity for all of us to think about.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now it takes some skill because you've got to time that because you've got how how long does it take?
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: How long do you have to carry this project?
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: How much money do you have to spend out of pocket before that happens?
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: And if it's 12 to 18 months, great.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: But if it's 36 to 48 months, that could be a problem because now the carrying costs are an issue.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_00: So it is an opportunity, but certainly also a risk for us in the development space.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: And also I think the reality of it, too, from just talking to developers around the country is that there's a lot of developers who want they just want to operate in the for sale space.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_01: They they feel that they they want to try to create ways for the end consumer to be able to own a home.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: So this may not be something they end up wanting to get into anyway, but I think it's important to just understand what's happening, what's changed at the HUD or what they're what they're doing to try to look forward and see what the most likely housing types are that are going to be accessible to um, you know, first-time home buyers and everything, maybe they're gonna be renting to start with, you know, to try to save up for a down payment before they can go into that next step into their uh entry-level house.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: Well, if you think about this, Ryan, those builders that are seeing a downturn, maybe their sales are not, maybe they're flat, maybe their sales are lagging a little bit.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's I think we're seeing that across the board.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_00: There are those situations.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're a builder, you work for a builder, and you're seeing those scenarios, your for sale product is not growing at the rate that that management wants, or maybe it's stagnant, adding in build-to-rent as a component, you you know how to do all the elements, right?
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's just a little bit different exit scenario.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: So whether you're selling a completed build-to-rent community that you've developed and taken all the way and you're selling that to an institutional buyer, or whether you're fee developing that build-to-rent community as a way to supplement income because you do have the staff and you do have the subs to do it.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_00: So there are ways that you can get into the space in a de-risked manner, uh, whether you're building for somebody else or you've got a known exit that allows you to create income using all the same things that you know how to do every day, if you're not seeing that growth with your single-family sales.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: All right, well, let's go ahead and move on to our last article.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: This one comes to us from several different sources.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, the conference board, Redfin, and Zillow, uh, also one from Resi Club in here as well.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: Headline reads Consumers are not feeling the bounce.
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: So from the conference board, U.S.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_01: consumer confidence fell in September.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_01: The conference board consumer confidence index fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and homes both declined slightly in September.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_01: From Redfin, Redfin reports home sellers now outnumber buyers by 63%, the biggest gap in the last 13 years.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: There were an estimated 62.6% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_01: housing market in September.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: The biggest gap in rick in records dating back to 2013.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: There were an estimated 928,000 home buyers in the market nationwide in September, the lowest level in records dating back also to 2013.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: From Resi Club, five tables showing home price shifts across every major region.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: So obviously, you know, at times on here when we don't necessarily have granular data, you do get the mention of the U.S.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: housing market.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Resi Club released some data that goes more region by region and also metro by metro.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: So um from this, in aggregate, the post-boom market remains most resilient in the Midwest and Northeast, while the greatest softness is still concentrated in former pandemic boom towns in the southeast, southwest, and pockets of the west.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_01: So I want to go through these different regions really quick.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: We're not going to go through all.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's somewhere between 30 and 50 metros that they highlight.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_01: So if you want to look at all these, I'd encourage you to look at the description for this episode, go over to the show notes page and click through to that Resi Club article and you can read through all of them.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: On here, uh, the first one is the 50 largest western metro areas.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so this has actually been clipped to only show the top X number and the bottom X number, not the full 50, but up top we have Anchorage, Alaska at plus 5%.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: So increase in home prices.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: We have Santa Cruz at 4.6%, Santa Maria, California at 4.2%.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: And then you flip down to the bottom.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: You've got Denver, Colorado at a negative 1.7%, Stockton, California, 1.7%, Seattle, Washington uh going down 2.2%, and then Las Vegas down 2.7% in the western region.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: Looking at the uh Southwest, we have Abilene is up 10.5%.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: So this one I feel like was an anomaly here.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_01: And I think Charles, you were mentioning before we recorded maybe what's going on in the Abilene area.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think this may be related to some of the data center constructions going on in West Texas.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so that's up 10.5%, uh Amarillo, 4.3%.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: Then you go to the bottom, we've got Dallas is down 1.9%, San Antonio down 2%, and then Austin down 3.9%.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: Going to the southeast, we've got Shreveport.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: Up 4%, Little Rock, Arkansas up 3.3%, flipping down to the bottom here.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_01: We've got Savannah, Georgia down 3.1%, Asheville, North Carolina down 3.5%.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_01: So it does feel like some of the boom, like it said in the headline of this article, some of the boom towns across the country that saw prices go up drastically.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_01: There are some slight corrections that seem to be taking place in some of those different cities.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: Northeast Metros, Norwich, Connecticut, up 7.2%, Binghampton, New York, 6.8%.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: And then down in the bottom, we've got uh Trenton, New Jersey down 0.2%, Burlington, Vermont down uh 0.4%.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: And then lastly, we have the Midwest, which Midwest just kind of stays, generally stays steady, although in Illinois we do see some prices going up.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_01: We've got Rockford, Illinois up 8.2%, Peoria up 6.2%, and then down toward the bottom of this, we've got Indianapolis up 0.9%, Topeka up 0.9%, Sioux Falls, South Dakota up 0.8%, and Des Moines, Iowa up 0.4%.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_01: So relatively flat in those areas.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: One other, I've got a couple other slides here that I'm going to show Charles, but just based on some of the pricing, anything here that surprises you or does it feel pretty consistent with what you'd expect based on how things have been the last few years?
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_00: Well, so we're looking at consumer sentiment, we're looking at all these different metrics, and it looks like things are not great, which I think is factual.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: But compared to other times, one one item that I thought would be a a good data point was what is the delinquents delinquency rate on home loans?
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: Are we seeing is that indicating there's a real problem?
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: Because if you just talk to people, everything's more expensive, they're making less, it's costing more, like the gap is there.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: But is it enough to create a structural issue in the marketplace?
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_00: And if we're going to use loan delinquencies as a measurable, then probably not.
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_00: So you look at post, you know, post-2008, delinquencies were like 10%, 9 or 10%.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_00: And we're still in that kind of 1.7 to 1.8%, which is normal and has been a similar number for quite a while.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_00: We're not seeing that trend up in any notable way.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: So up just slightly, like tenths of a point uh recently, probably not statistically significant.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_00: So that's interesting in that we don't see there's not there's not a there's not a crashing scenario coming.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_00: But it is tougher.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that mean for us, you know, in this space?
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think it it just means caution, but it doesn't mean you know we're we're today, I think we're talking about some less than positive information, but it doesn't mean that everything is crashing around us, right?
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_00: The data is telling us that that there are still there's still business happening.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: There are still homes being built, there are still homes being sold, but it's just not at the same pace uh that we've been used to over the last number of years.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_00: We don't have a structural massive crash at the moment based on the numbers.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_00: So then it's about using caution, planning ahead, trying to look around the corner a bit as we run our businesses.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: Does it feel like a crash needs to happen for a real correction?
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: Because I, you know, we were talking about earlier, if if these prices, and I'm just making up numbers here, but if if a home is being sold for$800,000, but the reality is nobody's gonna be able to buy that home.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I shouldn't say nobody, but like the vast majority of people who want to get into homes can't afford it unless it's maybe$350,000 or$400,000, or maybe a$600,000 house would have to be$250,000 for somebody to afford it.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_01: And if that's the correction that has to happen for inventory to actually start selling at some point in the future, do you think that type of correction, I mean, does a crash, is a crash what would lead to that type of correction?
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_01: Because I just don't get the sense that people would willingly go and drop their house by 50%.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_00: Correct.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that is the problem.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_00: They have a they have a number in their mind that, hey, my house is worth as much.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's the only number that I would take.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't go below that, even though the market may be screaming at them, hey, that number is not correct.
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_00: And that is a challenge that we see.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_00: We see that in the land space all the time, and that's a that's a big issue at the moment.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think that there's a possibility that an AI crash would have an overarching effect.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_00: And there are some very significant structural issues with the AI stuff that's going on now, both the businesses that are that are involved in AI and then the data center construction that's propping up a lot of what's going on in the construction market.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_00: There are a lot of problems that AI is currently masking.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_00: And if the legs come out from under that particular house on stilts, I think we could have a very serious overarching problem that would certainly feed into housing and housing prices.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_00: So I certainly don't want that to happen.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_00: I I don't wish that it to happen, but I think it's definitely a possibility that that AI bubble could burst at some point, and the overarching flow of problems down that chain would be pretty significant.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, well, just a couple more here, and then we'll wrap up this uh article.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_01: So um another one from Zillow here.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_01: So Zillow's September market report shows an early winter in the housing market as newly pending sales fall, 8.5%.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_01: The for sale markets retreat may be translating to rising costs in the rental market.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: The typical U.S.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_01: rent rose 2.7% year over year in September, the biggest annual gain since April 2025, according to the Zillow observed rent index.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_01: Annual rent growth has accelerated every month since April and is widespread, rising for both multifamily and single-family homes.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_01: And then from Redfin, this is a buyer's market born out of caution, not strength, said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin.
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_01: Buyers have tremendous negotiating power in most of the country because so many other would-be buyers have been priced out of the market or scared off by economic uncertainty.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_01: And then the uh last one here that I wanted to take a look at, this was interesting.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I know these numbers, when you guys look at these numbers, it probably doesn't maybe feel like every single one of these categories is real, like the actual number you would need for each of these.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: But this chart right here is from Investopedia, and the headline for the chart is the American dream now costs$5.3 million.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_01: And essentially, it puts that$5.3 million into several different buckets of what people should expect to spend over the course of the lifetime.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_01: And really the bottom line is here is they're saying that the median lifetime earnings of an individual American with a bachelor's degree is only$3.6 million.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_01: So ultimately, there's a gap between what people are earning and what the quote unquote American dream costs, according to this here.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna read off a few of these here, and then I I want to get your thoughts on this, Charles.
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_01: But the different buckets here, we have retirement at$1.2 million, healthcare$413,000, owning a home, almost$1.3 million, raising two children and paying for college, uh,$953,000, owning a new car.
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm assuming this is continually owning a new car.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: So as it gets to a certain age, you go buy a new one and you always have a high payment,$1.2 million, annual vacations,$186,000, owning pets, this one was kind of surprising,$40,000, and then getting married and having a wedding,$38,000.
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: So I think the the message here is that people can't afford to do all this stuff.
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: So which of these things will people start to cut in order to make sure that they don't overspend beyond the$3.6 million lifetime earning, or are they just gonna, you know, die in major debt?
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like what's the what's the plan here?
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, what are your thoughts on this, Charles, when you see it?
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_00: Well, some of these numbers are interesting.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_00: You know, 38,000 is not much of a wedding.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you've tried to plan a wedding recently, but the the numbers are crazy what it costs to have a wedding.
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't even know if that's if that's gonna be an accurate number.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_00: It is pretty expensive to exist here.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I I get to try I'm fortunate and I get to travel a lot internationally for work and I talk to a lot of people, and the perception internationally of what happens here in the US is very different than our own perception.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we think America is the greatest, there's really nowhere else in the world you would want to be.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: Like, why would you possibly want to be anywhere else?
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_00: This is the best that exists.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: And part of that's true in that I think unequivocally, uh most would agree that the US is the best place to build something from nothing.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_00: You have fewer barriers, you can go create something, you can go create a business, you can go create wealth for yourself.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: The US is the best place to do that on the planet.
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_00: But it's also very expensive.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's also very challenging here.
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_00: So there's this concept of, you know, make your money here, but do you want to stay here as a retiree?
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_00: Do you want to stay here and try to live through those expensive years of of being retired?
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe there's somewhere else on the globe and we have the freedom to move about in a lot of ways.
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_00: So you maybe there's another place on the globe that is more economical or that does make more sense for those retirement years.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of people are seeing that.
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that this chart chart just tells us it is damn expensive to exist in the U.S.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't see that changing anytime soon.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_00: It's all going to keep going up.
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_00: So being more open-minded to what makes the most sense and maybe, maybe and I'm a proud American, I love the country, but maybe being here all the time for your retirement isn't the best scenario.
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: So just something really interesting to think about.
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_00: Where are those places that maximize your value?
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's an interesting perspective on that too.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_01: And the reason this one stood out to me too is because, you know, one of these boxes on this chart is owning a home, which directly impacts all of us.
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_01: And so if people are gonna have to make decisions on what to do with different areas of their life, right?
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_01: You maybe you forego a wedding and you don't spend the 40,000, 50, whatever it costs,$50,000 to do the wedding, maybe you save that money and you go to the courthouse and get married.
• 31:46
  SPEAKER_01: Like what type of decisions are younger people going to make to try to save money?
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_01: Are they gonna not buy new cars?
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_01: I've been seeing a lot of people posting about almost going on somewhat of a strike of buying new cars and they're not buying new cars.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_01: They're looking for cars that are older, and there's many reasons for that.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: It's not just the cost and and everything, but it's also the ability to find um the ability to fix your vehicle yourself.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_01: Because a lot of the newer cars, you have to have certain technology to do that, and it's becoming a problem for people, and they're realizing they're, you know, they have to go to the dealership to do repairs and they're expensive and everything.
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: And so I'm thinking some of these categories, people are gonna find ways to decrease some of these categories.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: And the question is, is what does that do to housing?
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I I'd mentioned this before we recorded, I I looked at the numbers on, you know, one point almost 1.3 million to own a home over your lifetime, but the cost of rent and equivalent housing is gonna be very similar to that.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_01: I think it was like 1.1 to$1.2 million over the lifetime with rents and everything and how they tend to trend up.
• 32:49
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't think people are gonna save a ton of money by choosing not to buy versus rent.
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_01: They need housing either way, but you brought up a good point.
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_01: Is that housing going to be in the United States or is it potentially with uh some people, is it gonna end up being in other um other countries where the cost of living is uh cheaper than the United States?
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_01: So good stuff here, very interesting to think about.
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it really is.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_01: All right, guys.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that is all for this episode.
• 33:13
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• 33:16
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• 33:18
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