Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / Is a real estate market collapse really imminent? I'm Connor at www.SantaClaritaOpenHouses.com and let me shed more light onto this market

Transcript

Is a real estate market collapse really imminent? I'm Connor at www.SantaClaritaOpenHouses.com and let me shed more light onto this market · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Hey everybody, welcome to the daily show.
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: It is Connor with Honor.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: It's July 3rd, 2024.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: This is going to be your Santa Clarita relisted update.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: As always, I'm pulling from seven days of data, combining those numbers and giving those to the people that are interested in real estate, such as you, because you are here.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: Total listings currently, as of this morning, 439 in all of Santa Clarita Valley.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: I will talk about some of the headlines out there, talking about how the market is crashing and that right now, if you're buying a house, it's a bad investment.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, first-time buyers can't compete.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: Great headlines.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get into those in just a second.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about this local inventory here.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: So currently 439 total active listings.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to be single family residences, condominiums, townhomes throughout all of the Santa Clarita Valley cities at www.santaclarita openhouses.com.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: You'll be able to see all of the real estate data.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: That's my property.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: You will be able to see every single listing that actually bridges the gap between the syndication sites and the local multiple listing service.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: And it is mine.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: You can search forever.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: You never have to give up who you are.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: Any personal and private information is definitely kept in your own custody.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: If you are ready, when you are ready, I should say, to investigate further, to interview myself and my team, to sit down with us so we can have a discussion about the best way we can serve you, then of course connect with me.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: Period.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Reach out to me through www.santaclarita openhouses.com.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: All right, so let's get into this.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: We have 80 new new listings that have been posted the past seven days.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: 60 properties have had their prices changed.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: 19 properties have come back on the market.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: We have 23 properties that have gone into escrow.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: 47 properties have had their escrow status changed to not wanting backup offers.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: So pretty deep.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: Chances are that they've gotten past those contingency removal time frames.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: And that's going to depend on what contract was written and what negotiations your agent did on your behalf.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: And then we have 80 properties that sold this past week.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: That is about 10 to 12 higher than normal numbers.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: Usually we're in the high 60s, low 70s.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: For this seven-day snapshot, we have 80, which is pretty good.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: So those are new owners out there.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: 11 expired, 8 canceled, 8 put on hold, 3 withdrawn, and that total active residential number 439.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: The real estate market is crashing.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: We don't have enough inventory to make the market crash, at least in that regard.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: On the lending end of it, lenders, if you try to get a loan at any time lately, you'll know that there really is no playing.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: No games, there's nothing extra given.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: The lenders are running, these people, you buyers out there, running you through the gamut and getting all the information.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't believe that's going to be the case that we saw back in 07, which was really, there were a lot of folks that were being qualified to purchase real estate and probably shouldn't have been.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Having said that, this particular market very constricted in that regard.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: Interest rates, plummeting, are going too high, probably not going to move for a while.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: As far as the economy goes, inflation's really, really high.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think that causes a stagnant market.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe if inflation could relax a little bit, we'll see a lessening of interest rate.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: But what that's going to do, that's not going to create any kind of a slump at all.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to start moving inventory even faster.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: So right now in Valencia, California, if we have somewhere between a 15 and a 25 regular day-on-market time frame before the houses get into escrow, you can see that time frame go down at least 50%.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: So we're talking five to seven days.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: And in that case, if interest rates do come down into the fours, we're going to see properties even moving faster depending on those local markets.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, in Santa Crita Valley, we do have the fastest turnover going to be in Valencia, but Saugus is running a close second.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: It's also going to depend on week.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus has been winning out a lot lately.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: And if you look at the reason why people are drawn to the various cities out here in Santa Crita Valley, if you have school-aged independent children, that's a big pull for people to move out here.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: Because a lot of the schools in the Saugus area in Valencia and the other areas, a lot of them are blue ribbon.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: So you're getting award-winning schools basically based on your tax rate, your property taxes are the property taxes that are getting paid.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: So it's that no additional investment, and your kids are getting top-notch education in a public school, who'd have thought.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: Alright, so check that out.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: So that's that's gonna be dumbing that.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: Buying a home now is a best of bad investment.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: That might be true for some people, it's gonna depend on your reason.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: If you're looking to purchase real estate as an investment strategy or an investment vehicle, that's always looked on in a good way.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: You just have to look at the affordability numbers.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: And I think another question to ask in regard to you know buying a home or if you're exploring that statement of buying a home being a bad investment, over time it looks like real estate's been a fantastic bet.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: The problem is when you buy in a high market and then a month later the market collapses.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: Is there any guarantee against that?
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: No, of course not.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Things happen all the time in the world economy.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: You have to explore that yourself, whether now getting in is going to be more beneficial.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: The other things, too, what are the other benefits of owning a home besides monetary?
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Besides now, you're investing into your own equity, your own future, but doing that, being able to be in a position to do that, carries the risk.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: So that being the case, maybe it's not a good move for you.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Just look at the numbers and see what makes sense.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: I had a cat that I met this weekend, he's renting a 3,600 square foot house at$3,000 a month.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: He's locked into that.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: That will never change.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: And the I guess the landlords own the house free and clear, and they don't want anything to change either.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: They take care of everything, they're responsive to any requirements, they've come and they've replaced things, they painted it, they've recarpeted.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, they've really taken care of these tenants.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: So he was like, Well, should I be buying, you know, a million-dollar house?
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: I said, Well, that's a pretty good deal.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Can you sublease it?
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: You know, is that something that you could make some more money on?
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: Because he could probably get close to double that figure now with a pool like that as a rental.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: But so we joked a little bit, but there are certain people that are in that Cinderella, is it Goldilocks?
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, like a Goldilocks planet, kind of in that Goldilocks area that allows them to pay very little rent or maybe even not even pay rent, but have it in trade because there's some kind of cop or some kind of bodyguard.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: They're living in a an additional house on a particular lot, so they're getting it compensated.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: You know, still go buy real estate, sure, but I don't know if I would upheave where you're staying, especially because of that rate.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe for somebody in that regard, a better scenario would be for them to maybe go buy something that they're not gonna actually habitate.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: But then that being the case, if you're not gonna be owner-occupant with different loan programs, you're gonna have to find out what that's gonna look like and as far as what your price of admission would be to buy it.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: For example, if you're buying a property as an investor, most lenders are gonna have more required as down payments.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: So, right now, if you're just a regular garden variety run-of-the-mill buyer, and you have okay credit with okay employment, and you have the records to prove it, you you have okay credit and so on, more than likely you could purchase real estate without even being a veteran at 3.5% down.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: So that's an FHA loan, and that's fantastic, great.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna have some PMI on that, so you're gonna have extra in with your payment every month to ensure the loan because you're less than 20% down.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: But that being the case, that's what you can do as somebody that's gonna occupy the property because part of that loan, the requirement is you got to live there.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: On the other side of that, if you're gonna be using, if you're not gonna be living in the property, it might cost you more to purchase.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe that's a better trade-off with what you're renting.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe you'll say, you know what, it's worth the sacrifice to make the leap.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: But again, questions to ask.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: And finally, first-time home buyers can't compete.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: Great headline, and I'll be frank with you, it depends on who the agent is.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: That's gonna depend on a big part of it, and not because certain agents are more special, more accepted, more loved, more cared for, and more offers accepted from them because, you know, maybe they have a face for radio or whatever.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: But at the end of the day, it's gonna come down to how they put everything together and how they speak on your behalf to the agent that represents the seller.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: It really doesn't matter where the agent comes from, but they need to send everything through at once.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: They need to be very responsive, and I say everything through at once like it's something everybody should understand.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: Whenever we're putting together an offer and we're sending a piece here, and then I don't have everything in order, so I don't have the lender's information, so now I gotta get that.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: So then I forward another email.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, here's the lender stuff, and oh, here's the pre-approval letter, and oh, here's proof of funds.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: Whatever is required to be packaged with an offer, the more separate emails, the less likely the agent is really doing a great job.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: Because I know as a seller's agent for a lot of the time, whenever I'm getting five and six emails from somebody represented by a buyer's agent, that it's just extra stuff that should have been packaged at the very beginning.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I understand if people are trying to save time, maybe the property's hot, but trust me, folks, dollars to donuts, people aren't going to be accepting an offer in moments, especially when the property is new.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: More than likely, they're going to wait or at least make the phone call.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Hey so and so, this is Connor.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: I'm writing an offer on your property as we speak.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: I just wanted to let you know if the seller is considering anything at all on the table at this time, please give me 20 minutes.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: They will have a complete package from me.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: In just a moment, you'll be able to present me with everybody else, something of that nature.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: All right, so if you are going into this buying, there are certain things you can change.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: Your agent is important in the process because sometimes just reducing a couple of contingency time frames, giving the seller a little more confidence in your offer is amazingly beneficial.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with Honor.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching today's real estate update, July 3rd, 2024.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: And uh we'll be back tomorrow.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching, be well.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: And reach out to us at www.santaclaritaopenhouses.com.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with Honor, over and out.