Latest / Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News / China, America, and the illusion of stability

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China, America, and the illusion of stability · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

• 0:11
  It's the tip of the spare in the
• 0:13
  epic battle to defend the United States of
• 0:14
  America.
• 0:19
  And national security hour exposes the wolves in
• 0:21
  sheep's clothing and the nefarious plots to undermine
• 0:24
  and destroy U.S.
• 0:27
  national security.
• 0:31
  Hello and welcome to the National Security Hour.
• 0:34
  Thank you for joining us on the mission.
• 0:36
  The National Security Hour is the tip of
• 0:38
  the spear in the epic battle to defend
• 0:40
  the United States of America.
• 0:42
  I'm Brandon Weikert, your friendly neighborhood host.
• 0:45
  You can catch me right here every single
• 0:48
  Wednesday night at 8 p.m.
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  Eastern.
• 0:51
  And you can follow me at We The
• 0:53
  Brandon on Twitter X.
• 0:56
  Today is a very good episode we've got
• 0:57
  for you.
• 0:58
  It's all on what's going on with China
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  and America, the recent G Trump summit.
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  Was it the great victory we're led to
• 1:07
  believe?
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  Or was this sort of passing the baton
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  in a way from the United States to
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  China as the rising superpower?
• 1:17
  Brendan O'Reilly joins us.
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  He's an intelligence analyst.
• 1:21
  He's been on a couple of times with
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  us before.
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  Also the author of Everyone Is Wrong About
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  China, which is probably my favorite book so
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  far this year that I've read on in
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  the last year on uh on China.
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  So it's great to have you here, Brendan.
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  Thanks for joining us.
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  Yeah, absolutely.
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  Happy to be here.
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  Well, uh, let's just dive right in.
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  The summit is over.
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  I notice Jensen Wang is still rampaging through
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  the streets of China, eating everything he can
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  in sight and taking selfies.
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  Um I I have heard on Twitter.
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  Now, this is I can't find it confirmed.
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  So please, if you have any insight, confirm
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  this.
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  But I I have seen rumors reported on
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  Twitter that China opted not to purchase the
• 2:06
  NVIDIA chips, even though it was reported that
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  Trump was going to offer that as part
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  of an inducement to get uh Xi to
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  do a big trade deal with the United
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  States.
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  What have you heard on this?
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  Um, so that is my understanding as well.
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  Um the Chinese government's been pretty consistent in
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  that, saying they don't want those, you know,
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  very slightly nerfed, but still quite advanced chips.
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  Uh, even though it it holds them back
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  a little bit in terms of compute, they
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  are taking a uh, you know, big picture
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  long-term view of things, and they don't want
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  to be corralled necessarily into over dependence uh
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  on in the US led system when it
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  comes to chips.
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  Yeah.
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  And I just saw interestingly, you know, I
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  in 2018 I I warned Robert Leitheiser's team.
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  I don't know if I said this to
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  you before, but I I did brief them.
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  He was the U.S.
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  trade representative in the first term.
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  I think he's the USTR again.
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  Um, but but in the first term, I
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  I told him, I said his team, I
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  said, yes, we can play keep away for
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  a little bit, but we can't play keep
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  away forever.
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  And if we're not doing anything to outmaneuver
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  in terms of innovation and industrialized industrialization here
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  in the United States, keep away is irrelevant.
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  And it looks to me like China doesn't
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  actually need us.
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  Is that is that a fair assessment?
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  I mean, yeah, I mean, we could probably
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  help get them to where they want to
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  be quicker, but it doesn't seem like they
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  really need us in this department.
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  Well, I mean, I think you can look
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  uh look at throughout human history for examples
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  of this.
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  Um, you know, for a long time, China
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  itself uh tried to maintain a monopoly on
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  silk production technology.
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  Uh, and they managed to do it for
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  quite a while, but eventually someone snuck out
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  some of the silkworms and figured out how
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  to do it.
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  Um, you know, human ingenuity and maybe more
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  importantly, the profit motive are going to be
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  stronger than any government, even a very powerful
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  government like that of the United States.
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  Um, you know, life will find a way,
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  money's gonna find a way.
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  Uh the Chinese are the main customers for
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  this, um, you know, you always you already
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  have issues with uh circumventing the U.S.
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  controls, uh, you know, in terms of smuggling.
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  Taiwan, where all this stuff's being built is
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  literally a fishing boat ride away from mainland
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  China.
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  Um, and they all speak Chinese, so yeah,
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  you know, there's there's gonna be some stuff
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  going on there.
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  Let me let me ask you this too,
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  because it is my understanding, and again, I
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  would love to know if I'm wrong, but
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  it is my understanding that a large chunk
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  of the people who work at TSMC factories
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  in Taiwan are actually from mainland China, that
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  they actually are.
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  I'm I'm sure some of them are.
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  Um I I used to live in a
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  city called Xiamen, which is right across, it's
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  in mainland China, right across from Taiwan, and
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  uh there's tons of Taiwanese business people on
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  the other side, you know, running factories, doing
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  business, etc.
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  So there's extensive economic, social, personal ties.
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  Um, and yeah, like I said, life's gonna
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  find a way, money's gonna find a way.
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  And, you know, especially if you think about
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  a country like China, which is huge, uh,
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  has a bunch of people, has a bunch
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  of quite talented people.
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  Um, they're gonna figure out a way around
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  any tech control.
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  I mean, really, basically any competent country is
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  eventually going to find a way around most
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  tech controls, but certainly China's gonna find a
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  way around it.
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  So yeah, the idea that the U.S.
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  would be able to successfully uh outcompete them
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  in terms of advanced chips, uh, was probably
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  not that smart.
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  And it also was seen as extremely aggressive
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  by the Chinese.
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  I mean, it was you can see the
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  the U.S.
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  trade representatives were basically openly saying we are
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  trying to kneecap your industrial and technological potential.
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  So, yeah, you know, another country is not
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  gonna like that, and they're gonna find ways
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  around it.
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  That's right.
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  And um, you know, you can look at
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  their rare earths controls now.
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  They're they're gonna find a way to retaliate.
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  So uh yeah, I think eventually they're they're
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  they're gonna figure it out, and probably sooner
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  than most people think.
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  I was just trying to find about two
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  days ago.
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  I thought I bookmarked it.
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  I can't find it though.
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  Um, there was an interesting Bloomberg chart that
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  showed how China was catching up to the
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  United States in advanced semiconductors.
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  Uh from Bloomberg, which is usually, you know,
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  pretty corporate media, you know, they're not gonna
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  rock the boat too much.
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  It's it's probably a lot closer.
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  I mean, this is me speculating.
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  Well, I'm sure they're hiding their capabilities too.
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  I mean, you have to think what would
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  you do if you were them, right?
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  Uh theoretically had they surpassed the United States,
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  which I don't think has happened yet, but
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  if they had, they're not gonna let you
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  know if they if they can help it.
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  That's right.
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  So um, yeah, I again it's it's it's
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  basic human nature.
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  And um, I think the other piece of
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  this we need to think about too is
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  you know, the U.S.
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  has a an apparent edge in terms of
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  Terms of you know very efficient and powerful
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  uh, you know, very efficient and powerful hardware,
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  hardware but uh you need electricity uh to
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  but uh you need electricity uh to run
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  run these things and uh China produces way
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  these things, and uh China produces way, way
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  way more electricity than the United States.
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  more electricity than the United States.
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  Um, I mean, we're already seeing some issues,
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  Um I mean we're already seeing some issues
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  and it's starting to be a domestic political
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  and it's starting to be a domestic political
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  issue here in the US with all the
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  issue here in the US with all the
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  energy being fed into data centers and how
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  energy being fed into data centers and how
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  that's uh increasing consumer electricity bills.
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  that's uh increasing consumer electricity bills.
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  In fact, I see it as a person
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  In fact, I see it as a person
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  who lives dangerously close to Washington, DC in
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  who lives dangerously close to Washington, DC in
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  my own life.
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  my own life.
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  Yes um so you know even if the
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  US and it I think the US still
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  does uh have this advantage in terms of
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  the the hardware and the advanced chips, uh
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  China has a huge advantage in just being
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  able to throw electricity at the problem.
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  So again, I mean it's one of those
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  things where I don't think I don't think
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  it's particularly nice, but more importantly, not particularly
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  smart to openly try to hobble the potential
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  of another country that's becoming more and more
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  powerful, unless you unless there's a really aggressive
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  move from the other side first.
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  Well, and in some respects, and and I
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  I don't know if you would agree with
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  this, but in some respects, what we have
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  done seems to almost be encouraging or inducing
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  China to take more aggressive steps, because if
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  we're going after their economic lifeblood and it's
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  relative peacetime, you know, what what else would
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  we go after?
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  You know, you have to be thinking that
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  in Beijing is uh, you know, I I
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  was on it, I I was talking to
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  somebody else, and I and and I felt
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  and I and I and I told them
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  that uh they they were asking me in
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  terms of the Middle East, why is uh
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  China uh isn't China encouraging the chaos, don't
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  they?
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  Ben and I said, well, actually, they do
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  kind of benefit because we've gotten ourselves sucked
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  into another Middle East war.
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  But China culturally and strategically, therefore, actually prefers
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  stability globally.
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  And so they would much rather this conflict
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  come to an end, even if it means
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  America not being bogged down in the Middle
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  East.
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  So, you know, I I think that the
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  the way the American people, and I was
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  guilty of this too at one time, view
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  China, I think is probably we view them
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  more aggressively than they really are.
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  Would you say that's correct?
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  I would say it's 100% correct.
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  Um, and especially after you know, having lived
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  there for eight years, um the United States
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  people in the United States are much more
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  afraid of China than China is of the
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  United States.
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  Um is that because it's just so big
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  over there?
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  Or is it time's on their side for
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  one thing?
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  For another thing, they I mean, like culturally,
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  they have generally positive impressions of the United
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  States in terms of you know movies, basketball,
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  yeah, food, etc.
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  I mean, that's shifted a little bit now,
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  as as they've seen from their perspective uh
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  the United States again, trying to hinder their
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  their development.
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  But generally they have uh, you know, they
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  think time's on their side, they're probably right
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  about that.
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  Um, and I think you really need to
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  break it down.
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  I mean, that's something I talk about in
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  my book.
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  Um there's there's one area in which, yes,
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  it is a competition, it's a zero sum
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  game, and that's in the area of overall
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  relative geopolitical power.
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  Um, so just uh what I would describe
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  as a pretty natural process of China getting
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  its act together, you know, since Mao Zedong
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  died and getting rid of the really stupid
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  policies that were holding them back.
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  Um, and then kind of retaking their their
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  dominant position in the global economy, which they
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  had had, you know, for most of human
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  history prior to that.
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  Um the United States, because the United States
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  has been so powerful for so long, especially
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  after World War II and after the Cold
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  War, um, the United States government sees just
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  the fact that they're getting more powerful as
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  aggression.
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  Um, whereas I think it's it's it's just
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  kind of a natural process that's gonna happen
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  when you have a huge country uh that's
• 10:56
  being competently run with talented people in it.
• 10:58
  Um but as to your point in the
• 11:00
  Middle East, um yeah, absolutely.
• 11:02
  Like they're gonna take advantage of the United
• 11:04
  States making a bad decision.
• 11:06
  And by take advantage, I mean they don't
• 11:07
  have to do anything, right?
• 11:09
  It's the classic do nothing win type of
• 11:10
  situation.
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  You never interrupt your uh opponent when they're
• 11:13
  making a mistake.
• 11:16
  Um, but they're their overall interest, they are
• 11:18
  the world's number one trading country, and especially
• 11:21
  in terms of importing fossil fuels.
• 11:23
  Uh they're they're very much dependent on that.
• 11:25
  So they want stability.
• 11:27
  They get along fine with the Iranians, but
• 11:28
  they also get along fine with the Saudis,
• 11:30
  and they get along fine with the Israelis,
• 11:32
  they get along fine with the Turks.
• 11:34
  Um, they're just there to do business to
• 11:36
  buy and sell things with everybody, which is
• 11:38
  what we used to do.
• 11:40
  And it's worked out pretty good for them
• 11:41
  for the last you know 40 years or
• 11:42
  so.
• 11:44
  Yeah, that's what we used to do before
• 11:45
  like 1840.
• 11:46
  That's what the founding fathers said that our
• 11:48
  policy should be.
• 11:49
  So they really learned from us.
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  Uh and we seem to have forgotten this
• 11:53
  fundamental truth.
• 11:55
  Um so before we get into some of
• 11:56
  that, I do want to go back to
• 11:58
  one thing.
• 12:00
  You mentioned the rare earth minerals.
• 12:02
  You and I talked about this extensively.
• 12:04
  I had Dan on a couple days ago
• 12:05
  talking about you know what's going on with
• 12:07
  rare earths.
• 12:08
  He, as you I don't know if you
• 12:10
  remember, but he he does deal a lot
• 12:12
  with rare earth minerals because he's semi in
• 12:14
  the semiconductor supply chain.
• 12:16
  And I asked him, I said, well, how
• 12:18
  bad is the helium crisis?
• 12:20
  And he said, it's really not that bad
• 12:21
  yet.
• 12:22
  He said that they're managing it.
• 12:24
  He said everybody's kind of just you know,
• 12:26
  filling in whatever gaps they have to, but
• 12:28
  it really isn't yet bad, which I was
• 12:29
  surprised by.
• 12:31
  Um the rare earths, though.
• 12:36
  The president clearly wants America, the President Trump
• 12:40
  clearly wants to not be dependent on China,
• 12:44
  specifically their processing power for rare earths.
• 12:48
  Um we were talking earlier about you know
• 12:50
  the silkworm example and sort of moving that
• 12:53
  out of China and how that propagated then
• 12:56
  and created competition.
• 12:59
  Do you see any positive movement in the
• 13:02
  United States or any of its partners developing
• 13:06
  workarounds to the dependency on China for rare
• 13:09
  earth mineral, specifically rare earth mineral uh processing?
• 13:13
  Well, this is definitely something that there's a
• 13:15
  lot of attention uh being put into right
• 13:17
  now and just starting to get the the
• 13:19
  money thrown at it, but ultimately, you know,
• 13:21
  this is something that the Chinese had worked
• 13:23
  at for decades to get where they're going
• 13:25
  very intentionally.
• 13:28
  Um and they nobody has the scale or
• 13:30
  at this point the expertise or in some
• 13:32
  you know specific areas, the technology really that
• 13:35
  that they have to to mine and refine
• 13:37
  these.
• 13:39
  So I look, is it is it something
• 13:41
  that's solvable?
• 13:42
  Sure.
• 13:43
  If you you know dump a trillion dollars
• 13:45
  into it for a decade, yeah, maybe we
• 13:47
  could you could you could wean yourself off
• 13:49
  of the the you know the Chinese uh
• 13:51
  supply chain, but it would take a trillion
• 13:53
  dollars in a decade.
• 13:56
  I mean, that's my ballpark figure.
• 13:57
  And then you also bring up a good
• 13:59
  point about you know the US working with
• 14:00
  You know, the US working with allies, so
• 14:01
  allies, so working with countries like uh I
• 14:01
  working with countries like uh I think Malaysia
• 14:02
  think Malaysia is a is a big player
• 14:03
  is a is a big player outside of
• 14:04
  outside of China.
• 14:04
  China.
• 14:06
  Um sure, yeah.
• 14:06
  Um sure, yeah, the Malaysians will work with
• 14:07
  The Malaysians will work with you, but uh
• 14:08
  you, but uh guess who their most important
• 14:09
  guess who their most important trading partner is?
• 14:10
  trading partner is it's China.
• 14:12
  It's China.
• 14:12
  They'll work with you.
• 14:12
  They'll work with you.
• 14:13
  Oh, sure, they'll they'll accept all sorts of
• 14:13
  Oh, sure, they'll they'll accept all sorts of
• 14:15
  US investment and trade.
• 14:15
  US investment and trade.
• 14:16
  They're they'd be happy to, but at the
• 14:16
  They're they'd be happy to, but at the
• 14:18
  end of the day, uh they're not going
• 14:18
  end of the day, uh they're not going
• 14:20
  to screw over the Chinese because it's not
• 14:20
  to screw over the Chinese because it's not
• 14:22
  in their interest.
• 14:22
  in their interest.
• 14:24
  So there's a lot of cultural.
• 14:24
  So there's a lot of cultural.
• 14:26
  You have to factor that into to any
• 14:27
  equation.
• 14:28
  There's a lot of cultural linkages too, though.
• 14:28
  There's a lot of cultural linkages too, though.
• 14:30
  Absolutely, yeah, yeah.
• 14:30
  There's tons of um, you know, ethnically Chinese
• 14:32
  uh people in Malaysia, for sure.
• 14:34
  It's just it just seems like we've really,
• 14:36
  as your book, the title indicates, it just
• 14:39
  seems like we've really gotten China wrong.
• 14:41
  We keep getting China wrong.
• 14:43
  Um something else that that also they're not
• 14:46
  gonna purchase NVIDIA chips, which was a big
• 14:49
  issue that Trump wanted to kind of give
• 14:52
  them.
• 14:56
  Um is there any indication that they're going
• 14:59
  to buy more of our debt?
• 15:02
  Because I know that was talked about going
• 15:03
  into this.
• 15:04
  Have you heard anything about what they're gonna
• 15:05
  do?
• 15:07
  Because we have to roll over quite a
• 15:08
  large amount of debt over the next 24
• 15:09
  months.
• 15:11
  Yes.
• 15:12
  So that I'm not sure of.
• 15:15
  I'm I'm I'm I'm just on the fact
• 15:17
  that there was nothing, you know, specifically mentioned
• 15:19
  by it by from both sides.
• 15:21
  I'm sure that nothing formally was agreed.
• 15:23
  Um, and then the other thing I would
• 15:25
  mention is there's there's an indication, actually, within
• 15:27
  the last 24 hours, uh, that they're probably
• 15:30
  not gonna increase their purchases of US debt,
• 15:32
  which is the fact that US Treasury yields
• 15:34
  have gone crazily higher today.
• 15:37
  Um I think the 10 year is up
• 15:39
  to like 4.6%.
• 15:41
  Or uh it was briefly at 4.6% today,
• 15:43
  whereas I think it was 4.5 yesterday or
• 15:45
  so.
• 15:47
  So I mean, that's a okay.
• 15:48
  Bond yields maybe isn't the most exciting topic
• 15:50
  in the world, but but it's an important
• 15:53
  indication indication, right?
• 15:55
  It's an indication of supply and demand.
• 15:56
  If the yields are going up, um, it
• 15:58
  means that you know, relatively demand is going
• 16:01
  down or or etc.
• 16:04
  So the fact that after this meeting, the
• 16:06
  day after this this big summit, US bond
• 16:08
  yields have gone up so much.
• 16:11
  Um yeah, to me that indicates uh either
• 16:14
  the Chinese well, certainly the Chinese did not
• 16:17
  formally um, you know, make some sort of
• 16:20
  uh agreement to purchase more, but it also
• 16:23
  maybe means that they indicated they're gonna sell
• 16:26
  more or purchase less.
• 16:29
  So I mean, again, you know, you have
• 16:31
  to kind of read the uh read between
• 16:33
  the lines here, but the fact that treasury
• 16:35
  yields have gone up so much in the
• 16:36
  last day uh is definitely not a positive
• 16:38
  uh sign on that problem.
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  A promise they agreed to in 2018.
• 19:36
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  Now is our time, my fellow Mark's America
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  outlaw.
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  Liberty and justice for all.
• 20:05
  Thank you for listening today.
• 20:07
  And thank you for joining us on the
• 20:08
  mission.
• 20:09
  The National Security Hour is the tip of
• 20:11
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• 20:13
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• 20:14
  I'm Brandon Wyckert, your decipherer of truth in
• 20:16
  an age of lies.
• 20:18
  You can catch me right here every Wednesday
• 20:20
  at 8 p.m.
• 20:22
  Eastern.
• 20:22
  And you can follow me at We the
• 20:24
  Brandon on Twitter X.
• 20:26
  Sources that Trump was pushing for a trillion
• 20:27
  dollar investment from China.
• 20:29
  Right.
• 20:30
  And it doesn't, I mean, I haven't heard
• 20:32
  anything about this happening.
• 20:34
  This was sort of before pre-game, you know,
• 20:36
  talk, and then we get to it and
• 20:38
  nothing really.
• 20:41
  Right.
• 20:41
  Um yeah, and so I think this is
• 20:44
  something, you know, my my overall take on
• 20:46
  the summit is there there was nothing solidly
• 20:48
  agreed to.
• 20:51
  Um, but that's not necessarily the end of
• 20:52
  the world, too.
• 20:53
  I mean, I will say this to be
• 20:54
  fair.
• 20:55
  Um there was no major faux pas, there
• 20:57
  was no major apparently at least public area
• 20:59
  of disagreement.
• 21:00
  Apparently, at least public area of disagreement.
• 21:02
  It was kind of a thing like, hey,
• 21:02
  It was kind of a thing like, hey,
• 21:03
  we're two big countries, sometimes we don't get
• 21:03
  we're two big countries, sometimes we don't get
• 21:05
  along.
• 21:05
  along.
• 21:06
  Let's have all our top people shake hands
• 21:06
  Let's have all our top people shake hands
• 21:08
  and take a nice picture and have a
• 21:08
  and take a nice picture and have a
• 21:10
  nice meal and have a good time.
• 21:10
  nice meal and have a good time.
• 21:12
  And I actually think that is not terrible.
• 21:12
  And I actually think that is not terrible.
• 21:15
  That's fine.
• 21:15
  That's fine.
• 21:16
  I mean, sure, there's empty platitudes, but I'll
• 21:16
  I mean, sure, there's empty platitudes, but I'll
• 21:18
  take, you know, empty positive platitudes over empty
• 21:18
  take you know empty positive platitudes over empty
• 21:20
  condemnations, right?
• 21:20
  condemnations, right?
• 21:22
  Yeah.
• 21:22
  Yeah.
• 21:23
  So everyone got together, they were nice to
• 21:23
  So everyone got together, they were nice to
• 21:24
  each other, had a little party.
• 21:24
  each other, had a little party.
• 21:26
  At the end of the day, that's fine.
• 21:26
  At the end of the day, that's fine.
• 21:27
  They're supposedly gonna meet again.
• 21:27
  They're supposedly going to meet again.
• 21:29
  Um so yeah, it's no earth shattering giant
• 21:32
  agreement, it's no, you know, massive geopolitical quid
• 21:35
  pro quo, but it's uh, you know, two
• 21:38
  sides getting along and just kind of hanging
• 21:41
  out, and and that's that's fine.
• 21:44
  I mean, yes, you know, it's yeah, it's
• 21:46
  disappointing if if people bought into the hype
• 21:49
  that this was gonna be some giant deal.
• 21:51
  Um but at the end of the day,
• 21:53
  I mean, at least it's not a disaster.
• 21:55
  And it's it's fine for the people to
• 21:56
  talk to each other and no, it's no,
• 21:57
  I agree.
• 21:58
  No, I agree with that, but what you
• 22:01
  know, it's because in my view, Trump has
• 22:03
  so put us into a horrible economic position
• 22:06
  with the Iran war, right with these shortages
• 22:09
  are not going to be felt until later
• 22:11
  this summer and going into the midterms.
• 22:14
  That's when Trump's gonna need some economic wins.
• 22:18
  And I think the longer I I just
• 22:20
  thought that he was going to China the
• 22:23
  way he was because he was really banking
• 22:25
  on having some big announcement, and it just
• 22:27
  doesn't sound like maybe he's gonna get it
• 22:30
  in the next month or so or two
• 22:32
  or three, but you know, from a political
• 22:34
  perspective, every minute we waste on getting some
• 22:37
  kind of game-changing economic deal is another minute
• 22:39
  that we lose the Republicans lose for the
• 22:41
  the midterms.
• 22:44
  Um there was though one, it sounds like
• 22:47
  again, I wasn't there, so I don't know,
• 22:49
  but it sounds like there might have been
• 22:52
  one faux pas in the context of uh
• 22:54
  Thucydides trap, which I am I am sick
• 22:57
  and tired of hearing about the Thucydides trap
• 22:59
  trap as a as a foreign policy nerd,
• 23:02
  uh do you do you want to just
• 23:04
  quickly tell the audience who may not know
• 23:07
  what is the Thucydides trap?
• 23:10
  So so the Thucydides trap is a term
• 23:12
  that refers to a situation in which there's
• 23:15
  a dominant power and a rising power.
• 23:18
  Um it could be a global or regional
• 23:20
  thing, and then this historian looked through these
• 23:23
  different situations and identify different ones based on
• 23:25
  different criteria and said, All right, so when
• 23:28
  you have this situation, dominant power, rising power,
• 23:30
  most of the time there's a war.
• 23:33
  That's pretty much all it is, and then
• 23:35
  people of course apply that to the US-China
• 23:36
  relationship.
• 23:39
  Um Athens in the Sparta versus Athens is
• 23:41
  a classic example.
• 23:44
  Um the the one big example in which
• 23:46
  it didn't result in a war was the
• 23:48
  global transition between the UK being the dominant
• 23:50
  power and the United States being the dominant
• 23:52
  overall global, at least there wasn't a war
• 23:54
  between the UK and the United States.
• 23:56
  There's no and but that was also a
• 23:58
  direct war between the US and the UK.
• 24:01
  Um, but yes, so um I'm glad you
• 24:03
  brought that up.
• 24:05
  Of course, I was expecting you'd bring that
• 24:06
  up.
• 24:07
  But um so we had this Trump social
• 24:09
  media post where he was mad, or maybe
• 24:12
  a little bit mad.
• 24:14
  I'm I'm assuming he was a little bit
• 24:17
  mad because from his interpretation, Xi Jinping implied
• 24:20
  that the United States was a declining power,
• 24:22
  which actually isn't even exactly what the uh
• 24:25
  Thucydides trap means, it just means there's a
• 24:28
  dominant and a rising, right?
• 24:31
  But does it doesn't necessarily mean that the
• 24:32
  dominant power is declining?
• 24:33
  Well, the argument is that Sparta the ironically,
• 24:35
  just real quick, because this is I was
• 24:37
  talking to somebody about this.
• 24:39
  The argument was the reason that so many
• 24:42
  people had problem with it, was because the
• 24:44
  theory is Sparta is viewed as the declining
• 24:47
  power, but as this individual I was talking
• 24:49
  about this morning made the point, we're not
• 24:52
  even we're we're not even Sparta in this
• 24:54
  in this scenario.
• 24:57
  We're actually Athens in this so if it's
• 24:59
  you know, anyway, I'm sorry, but it's a
• 25:01
  mixed metaphor for it's a completely mixed metaphor,
• 25:04
  yes, very mixed metaphor in the long time.
• 25:06
  It's really bad.
• 25:07
  Yeah, but I I think so.
• 25:09
  I think US media has kind of run
• 25:11
  away with this without taking one step back,
• 25:13
  maybe two steps back.
• 25:16
  What did Xi Jinping actually say about it?
• 25:18
  Okay.
• 25:19
  So the actual quote, if you'll forgive me
• 25:21
  for reading the very boring diplomatic talk, but
• 25:23
  I have it here.
• 25:25
  Okay.
• 25:26
  So here's the question.
• 25:27
  He said during like their opening summit or
• 25:29
  opening meeting or something like that.
• 25:31
  Uh, can China and the United States overcome
• 25:34
  the Thucydides trap and create a new paradigm
• 25:38
  of major country relations.
• 25:41
  Can we meet global challenges together and promote
• 25:43
  provide greater stability for the world, blah, blah,
• 25:44
  blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 25:46
  So, I mean, arguably, he he wasn't even
• 25:50
  directly necessarily saying that that's the situation.
• 25:54
  He wasn't necessarily saying that there even is
• 25:56
  a Thucydides trap.
• 25:59
  Um, I mean, he was kind of implying
• 26:01
  that there might be one, or that he
• 26:04
  doesn't want there to be one, but um,
• 26:06
  you know, it it wasn't that it wasn't
• 26:08
  the case that he directly said the United
• 26:10
  States is a declining power.
• 26:12
  Right.
• 26:13
  But you know, so to be fair, because
• 26:15
  I do know I like Graham Allison was
• 26:17
  the writer of the Thucydides trap, and I,
• 26:19
  you know, he was repeatedly flown out to
• 26:21
  Beijing when that book was uh, you know,
• 26:24
  the I I I know for a fact
• 26:26
  that that the people around X and G
• 26:28
  himself were for a period of time obsessed
• 26:30
  with that.
• 26:34
  He made he made a speech about it
• 26:35
  referencing it uh back in 2014.
• 26:37
  Yeah, it was yeah, it's been around for
• 26:38
  a while.
• 26:40
  He's like obsessed with it to a point.
• 26:41
  I mean, sure.
• 26:42
  Um, and so and and my my reading,
• 26:44
  and I read the true social post that
• 26:47
  Trump put out this morning.
• 26:49
  It sounded like you know, being Trump, he
• 26:52
  was spinning it saying, no, no, he was
• 26:54
  saying that America was declining under Biden, but
• 26:57
  now it's a ma you know, so but
• 26:59
  the point is as and and this is
• 27:02
  I'm in the minority, but I believe the
• 27:04
  United States right now is a declining power.
• 27:07
  It doesn't actually insult me.
• 27:09
  I don't know how you feel.
• 27:11
  It's just sort of an acknowledgement, and I
• 27:13
  hate that this is the case.
• 27:15
  But to me, the United Standing and frankly,
• 27:17
  if you're if if you're right sitting in
• 27:20
  Malaysia or Indonesia and you're about to lose
• 27:22
  access to natural gas and oil coming out
• 27:25
  of the Strait of War Moose, you're not
• 27:27
  really thinking good thoughts about America right now.
• 27:30
  Right.
• 27:30
  No, that's fair.
• 27:31
  Yeah.
• 27:32
  So but I just thought that was interesting
• 27:33
  because you're right, though, there has been a
• 27:35
  fire storm in the media about this uh
• 27:37
  here.
• 27:39
  Uh do you know what they're saying in
• 27:41
  Chinese media about uh is there say have
• 27:44
  you heard or that's a good question.
• 27:46
  I I did look up an article, but
• 27:49
  you know, for the most part, it's it's
• 27:51
  pretty dry, you know, pretty boring.
• 27:54
  Uh at least in terms of state media,
• 27:55
  I haven't really um dove into the social
• 27:57
  media reaction yet.
• 27:59
  But you know, there is this meeting, people
• 28:00
  There is this meeting.
• 28:01
  People said this, people shook hands.
• 28:01
  said this, people shook hands, you know, it's
• 28:03
  You know, it's it's it's very dry, at
• 28:03
  it's it's very dry, at least for now.
• 28:04
  least for now.
• 28:06
  They're they're not I wouldn't say they're downplaying
• 28:06
  They're they're not I wouldn't say they're downplaying
• 28:07
  it at all, but it's just very matter
• 28:07
  it at all, but it's just very matter
• 28:09
  of fact.
• 28:09
  of fact.
• 28:11
  Hey, here is this meeting.
• 28:11
  Hey, here is this meeting.
• 28:12
  We talked to each other, we're big powerful
• 28:12
  We talked to each other, we're big powerful
• 28:14
  countries talking to each other.
• 28:14
  countries talking to each other.
• 28:16
  This is good, you know.
• 28:16
  This is good, you know.
• 28:18
  Yeah.
• 28:18
  Yeah, very simple stuff.
• 28:19
  Very simple stuff.
• 28:20
  Do you do you think that this meeting
• 28:20
  Do you think that this meeting might avert
• 28:25
  might avert some kind of geopolitical crisis between
• 28:25
  some kind of
• 28:29
  the United States and China?
• 28:33
  Do you think it's leading to some positive
• 28:35
  rapprochement?
• 28:36
  Or do you think uh you know, we're
• 28:38
  kind of headed off a cliff?
• 28:41
  That's a really good question.
• 28:42
  I think a lot of it well, we
• 28:44
  don't know what was directly said between top
• 28:46
  leadership and private.
• 28:48
  I think that that's the biggest uh factor
• 28:51
  that you and I can't know.
• 28:53
  Um so it's it's possible that you know
• 28:56
  something was said in private, which is either
• 28:59
  positive, neutral or extremely negative.
• 29:02
  Um I I doubt that's the case.
• 29:05
  Um I think it's it's basically just continuation
• 29:07
  of of the status quo, at least between
• 29:09
  the US and China.
• 29:12
  Um, which honestly, I think it's it's gonna
• 29:13
  be okay.
• 29:15
  Um, even though you do have this geopolitical
• 29:18
  dynamic of competition, and even though I I
• 29:21
  agree with you, like I think in terms
• 29:23
  of relative power, overall China is is growing,
• 29:26
  and the United States is stagnating, at least
• 29:29
  in terms of competition with China.
• 29:32
  Um but at the end of the day,
• 29:35
  there are still huge areas of common interest,
• 29:38
  and I think there's also a recognition and
• 29:40
  hopefully a growing recognition with the things the
• 29:43
  developments that have happened in the last couple
• 29:46
  months that um a US China conventional war
• 29:49
  would be insane.
• 29:52
  Yeah.
• 29:53
  Almost unspeakably insane, certainly for the United States,
• 29:56
  but also for China.
• 29:58
  Um they think time's on their side, they
• 30:00
  don't want to rock the boat, right?
• 30:02
  Maybe right now.
• 30:03
  In fact, if I had to guess, if
• 30:05
  I had to guess with with what's happened
• 30:07
  with the Iran War, if I had to
• 30:09
  guess, if there was a conventional war between
• 30:11
  the US and China, sometimes somehow it doesn't
• 30:13
  go nuclear.
• 30:16
  Uh right now or it's tomorrow, the Chinese
• 30:18
  would handily win.
• 30:21
  Uh I think every US base um from
• 30:24
  Okinawa on towards uh the West would basically
• 30:28
  be destroyed in the first 48 hours.
• 30:32
  And I think almost every US surface ship
• 30:34
  within 5,000 miles of China would would be
• 30:36
  destroyed within a week.
• 30:39
  Um at the same time, though, at the
• 30:41
  same time, uh that would create enormous uh
• 30:44
  instability, an enormous risk, uh it would destroy
• 30:47
  the global economy, uh, even though I think
• 30:49
  they would probably win.
• 30:52
  That'd be terrible for China too.
• 30:54
  So empiric victory at best.
• 30:56
  At best, I mean, uh, really it why
• 30:58
  would you rock the boat if you think
• 30:59
  time's on your side?
• 31:01
  And and and especially in military military terms,
• 31:03
  I think um the balance of shower the
• 31:05
  balance of power is is rapidly shifting towards
• 31:07
  them.
• 31:10
  Um I think in the first island chain,
• 31:11
  it's already shifted about six or seven years
• 31:13
  ago.
• 31:15
  We we just we do it will never
• 31:16
  be proven because there's never going to be
• 31:18
  a war.
• 31:19
  Well, I I hope that you're right.
• 31:20
  I really do.
• 31:21
  I hope you're right.
• 31:22
  Because I you know, remember Norman Angel wrote
• 31:25
  a book right before World War One saying
• 31:27
  Germany and Britain would never go to war
• 31:29
  because they were such good trading partners, and
• 31:32
  of course um okay, so let's let's take
• 31:34
  a let's take a step back now and
• 31:37
  let's let's look at the Middle East related
• 31:39
  to as it relates to China.
• 31:42
  Um the Trump administration from the beginning of
• 31:45
  this war has insinuated repeatedly we attacked Iran
• 31:49
  to weaken China.
• 31:53
  Now, first of all, I think that's a
• 31:54
  bunch of malarkey.
• 31:55
  I don't think that was the reasoning at
• 31:57
  all, but I could be wrong.
• 31:59
  Um second of all, it doesn't look like
• 32:02
  it's working if that was the case.
• 32:05
  What can you comment on any of that?
• 32:06
  What what is your take?
• 32:08
  I don't think that that's necessarily a line
• 32:11
  from like top leadership in the Trump administration,
• 32:14
  but you see that more on like social
• 32:17
  media or um relatively on the fringes of
• 32:19
  like Trump supporters, right?
• 32:22
  Like I've I've heard it from people, I've
• 32:24
  heard it from people who are not necessarily
• 32:25
  in government but are connected to Mar a
• 32:27
  Laga.
• 32:28
  Sure, sure, sure.
• 32:29
  I know I I I do think there's
• 32:31
  some you know after the fact justification for
• 32:33
  that.
• 32:35
  Yes, exactly.
• 32:36
  And I I even think you know, if
• 32:38
  someone's you know played too many uh strategy
• 32:41
  games on their computer or something, they they
• 32:43
  might have gotten this crazy idea.
• 32:45
  Um, that by disrupting Middle Eastern oil, it
• 32:48
  hurts China more than the United States, which
• 32:50
  on the face of it, there is some
• 32:52
  truth to that.
• 32:55
  Peter Navarro too.
• 32:56
  Peter Navarro also said something similar a couple
• 32:58
  weeks ago in Ban and Show.
• 33:00
  So right, yeah.
• 33:02
  No, there is some truth to that, but
• 33:04
  um you have to think of like secondary
• 33:06
  and and tertiary impacts for that.
• 33:09
  For one thing, yes, China's more dependent on
• 33:11
  imported Middle Eastern oil than the United States,
• 33:13
  much much more dependent.
• 33:15
  Uh, you know who's much more dependent than
• 33:16
  China?
• 33:17
  India, South Korea, Japan.
• 33:20
  They're totally screwed over by this.
• 33:21
  And those are the countries that the United
• 33:23
  States is supposedly going to reach out for
• 33:25
  to be their strong, wonderful allies to contain
• 33:26
  Chinese power.
• 33:28
  And so if that's the policy, if the
• 33:30
  idea is, ha, we're gonna disrupt this trade
• 33:32
  to screw over the Chinese.
• 33:33
  Well, you you just slapped all of your
• 33:35
  allies in the face.
• 33:38
  And uh that's generally not that those stat
• 33:40
  batteries from South Korea.
• 33:42
  Oh, yes, that's awesome, right?
• 33:44
  That is well, yeah.
• 33:46
  Um but just in terms of the economic
• 33:48
  disruption, like uh that's it's it's kind of
• 33:50
  insane.
• 33:53
  It's like um, I don't know, you there's
• 33:55
  uh a neighbor that you don't like, so
• 33:56
  you burn down the house next to his,
• 33:58
  and then you're gonna get all your other
• 34:00
  neighbors to fight him.
• 34:02
  I I can't even that's a that's a
• 34:03
  poor analogy, but you understand what I'm saying.
• 34:05
  No, no, I do.
• 34:06
  Um, so that's that's one and the biggest
• 34:08
  facet of it, and and you just again
• 34:10
  you have to look at the the geography
• 34:12
  of you know the international fossil fuels trade,
• 34:14
  right?
• 34:17
  China, um, yes, they're the they're quite dependent
• 34:19
  on these imports, but they're less dependent than
• 34:22
  again like Japan, India, South Korea, because they
• 34:24
  can get stuff from pipelines from Russia, uh,
• 34:27
  Kazakhstan, etc.
• 34:30
  Um, so that makes it a little bit
• 34:31
  easier for them.
• 34:33
  Um, they also have an enormous stockpile.
• 34:35
  Um the world's largest had not been draining,
• 34:38
  that they had not been draining circa, you
• 34:40
  know, 2022.
• 34:42
  That in fact they were adding to it
• 34:44
  in late 2025, and you can go see
• 34:45
  mainstream media articles.
• 34:47
  Again, Bloomberg.
• 34:48
  I forget exactly where Javier Basic.
• 34:52
  Well, I saw it in December of 25
• 34:53
  because I reposted it recently.
• 34:55
  Javier Blasted a did a report.
• 34:57
  I think BLOSS is how you say his
• 34:58
  last name.
• 34:59
  Uh he he did a report in dec
• 35:00
  He he did a report in dec on
• 35:01
  on December 12th, 2025, in which and they
• 35:01
  December 12th, 2025, in which and they had
• 35:03
  had some beautiful charts.
• 35:03
  some beautiful charts.
• 35:05
  Uh I love charts.
• 35:05
  I love charts.
• 35:06
  So, you know, he had some great charts
• 35:06
  So, you know, he had some great charts
• 35:09
  in there showing 1.8 or 1.5 billion barrels
• 35:09
  in there showing 1.8 or 1.5 billion barrels
• 35:13
  of stockpiled Chinese energy.
• 35:13
  of stockpiled Chinese energy.
• 35:16
  Whereas we we were the second largest, but
• 35:16
  Whereas we we were the second largest, but
• 35:18
  it was like 400 million, 300 million.
• 35:18
  it was like 400 million, 300 million.
• 35:21
  Correct.
• 35:21
  Correct.
• 35:21
  Yeah.
• 35:21
  Yeah.
• 35:22
  And depleting, as you say, because we've been
• 35:22
  And depleting, as you say, because we've been
• 35:23
  people don't realize.
• 35:23
  people don't realize.
• 35:24
  Now we're depleting ours faster than theirs.
• 35:24
  Now we're depleting ours faster than theirs.
• 35:26
  I'm I'm pretty sure.
• 35:26
  I'm I'm I'm pretty sure.
• 35:27
  So yeah.
• 35:27
  So yeah.
• 35:28
  And we're exporting it.
• 35:28
  And we're exporting it.
• 35:29
  We're
• 35:29
  We're it's this wonderful thing.
• 35:31
  The US is exporting, we're exporting our strategic.
• 35:33
  Our emergency fund.
• 35:35
  This is our emergency fund.
• 35:37
  This isn't our like let's sell to the
• 35:38
  world, you know, basket.
• 35:40
  Well, if you have an election coming up
• 35:42
  in November and gas prices have gone up
• 35:43
  25%, it is an emergency, right?
• 35:45
  That's what they meant by emergency, right?
• 35:47
  Right, right.
• 35:47
  Well, I got you know, I this is
• 35:49
  why they don't talk to me anymore.
• 35:50
  But I I I let the Mar-a-Lago team
• 35:52
  know you could sell all the strategic petroleum
• 35:55
  results reserved to the world, and what's coming,
• 35:57
  that's not gonna help.
• 36:00
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• 39:39
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• 39:41
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• 39:44
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• 39:45
  night at 8 p.m.
• 39:47
  Eastern.
• 39:47
  And you can follow me at WeThe Brandon
• 39:49
  on Twitter X.
• 39:51
  We begin our final segment.
• 39:53
  You can suspend the gas tax, which is
• 39:55
  like what 18 cents a gallon.
• 39:57
  You can suspend that all you want, and
• 39:58
  it's not going to really help with what
• 39:59
  I think is coming.
• 40:01
  It'll help you'll uh drive treasure yield buyer
• 40:03
  because the government is not gonna income and
• 40:05
  they have to borrow the money.
• 40:08
  That's right.
• 40:08
  Oh, there you go.
• 40:09
  There you go.
• 40:10
  They're exactly right.
• 40:12
  Um how badly that now now again, previous
• 40:15
  guest Dan Collins commented that in his assessment,
• 40:18
  China had about at this rate, six to
• 40:21
  eight months of emergency reserve.
• 40:25
  And um I don't know how we would
• 40:28
  outlast that given everything we're doing with our
• 40:30
  emergency reserve.
• 40:33
  So my question to you is how badly
• 40:35
  long term, let's say that because I don't
• 40:37
  think the Iran war is going to be
• 40:39
  resolved.
• 40:40
  I think this is gonna be another frozen
• 40:42
  conflict.
• 40:43
  So how badly will we be hurt by
• 40:47
  this, say in six months compared to what
• 40:50
  you think China will be hurt by this.
• 40:54
  Um, I mean, that's a that's a big
• 40:56
  and interesting question with a lot of uh
• 40:58
  interesting moving parts.
• 41:00
  Um I think if your baseline is that
• 41:02
  basically the status quo in the Middle East
• 41:04
  continues, right?
• 41:07
  So you basically have a partial Iranian blockade
• 41:11
  slash you know, control uh regime in the
• 41:14
  Strait of Hormoes and uh partially somewhat effective
• 41:18
  US blockade of Iranian forests.
• 41:22
  Very leaky block.
• 41:22
  Neither of which are 100%, right?
• 41:24
  But it's still they're both effectively disrupting still
• 41:26
  the vast majority of stuff that normally be
• 41:28
  moving through there.
• 41:31
  But assuming that that's the case, and there
• 41:33
  isn't some sort of negotiated deal, and also
• 41:35
  the war doesn't break out again.
• 41:38
  Um I mean it's a math equation, uh,
• 41:40
  it's a it's a math equation, and in
• 41:42
  that equation, you you can look at the
• 41:45
  stockpiles, but you also need to look at
• 41:47
  how things are being used.
• 41:50
  Um I think it's easier much easier.
• 41:54
  Six months from now, I mean that's the
• 41:55
  election, right?
• 41:57
  Let's keep that in mind.
• 41:58
  So that's that's a factor.
• 41:59
  Yeah.
• 42:00
  Um in the US, not a factor in
• 42:00
  Um in the US, not a factor in
• 42:01
  China.
• 42:01
  China.
• 42:02
  Um I think they have more ability just
• 42:02
  Um I think they have more ability just
• 42:06
  in general for like domestic long term planning.
• 42:06
  in general for like domestic long term planning.
• 42:11
  Yeah.
• 42:11
  Yeah.
• 42:11
  So they, you know, the the here's here's
• 42:11
  So they, you know, the the here's here's
• 42:13
  what I should say.
• 42:13
  what I should say.
• 42:14
  The type of thing I would look for
• 42:14
  The type of thing I would look for
• 42:16
  is uh if this crisis continues in the
• 42:17
  is uh if this crisis continues in the
• 42:18
  general state it is in right now, which
• 42:19
  general state it is in right now, which
• 42:19
  it may or may not, but let's assume
• 42:21
  that it does.
• 42:22
  it may or may not, but let's assume
• 42:23
  Um the Chinese government is gonna start implementing
• 42:24
  that it does, um the Chinese government is
• 42:26
  you know significant controls to
• 42:27
  going to start implementing you know significant controls
• 42:29
  to reduce their consumption.
• 42:32
  Um it's much easier for them to do
• 42:34
  that than to try to do that in
• 42:36
  the US, where that would be, you know,
• 42:39
  politically very, very difficult.
• 42:41
  Yes.
• 42:41
  Um so that's something to look at.
• 42:44
  Um that would be the main factor I
• 42:46
  would consider, but I mean, who's to say
• 42:48
  in terms of economic stuff?
• 42:51
  I I I do think direct economic costs,
• 42:53
  it is more painful for China if the
• 42:56
  situation doesn't change.
• 42:59
  But you you can't just look at direct
• 43:00
  economic costs, you need to look at political
• 43:02
  costs in the US.
• 43:04
  And again, you know, the US with midterm
• 43:07
  elections coming up, um, our government is much
• 43:10
  more exposed directly to uh you know popular
• 43:14
  uh anger of about this issue, and especially
• 43:17
  because quite obviously this was directly caused by
• 43:20
  the policies of our own government, right?
• 43:23
  In China, if they need to tighten the
• 43:24
  belt.
• 43:25
  If the Chinese government says, okay, we need
• 43:27
  to, you know, reduce uh domestic flights, something
• 43:29
  like that.
• 43:31
  Um, because the US started this this war,
• 43:34
  then the Chinese people are like, well, that's
• 43:37
  unfortunate, but it's not your fault, right?
• 43:40
  So I mean, I think that's the biggest
• 43:42
  factor to consider.
• 43:43
  You you can't just think about it in
• 43:45
  terms uh it's not you know, stockpiles and
• 43:47
  usage, that's a math equation, but uh the
• 43:50
  political and geopolitical impacts are are much more
• 43:52
  complicated, and ultimately, I think that scenario is
• 43:54
  is far more harmful to the US government
• 43:57
  than the Chinese government.
• 43:59
  I agree.
• 44:00
  In fact, I think it's gonna cause regime
• 44:01
  change in Washington.
• 44:02
  That's my personal view.
• 44:03
  Um, no, I think that's a hundred percent
• 44:05
  correct.
• 44:06
  Um there was a lot of talk before
• 44:10
  this meeting with Trump and G that Trump
• 44:14
  was going to effectively plead with G to
• 44:18
  pressure Tehran to reopen the strait of Hormuz.
• 44:23
  Have you heard anything, any movement on that?
• 44:26
  Because I don't think that's gonna happen.
• 44:28
  Well, uh there's there's two pieces to that,
• 44:30
  and everyone's thought about one piece, and no
• 44:32
  one's thinking about the second piece.
• 44:34
  Piece number one does the Chinese government even
• 44:35
  want to do that.
• 44:37
  They may or may not, right?
• 44:38
  Like, as I said, this is this is
• 44:40
  painful to them, but do they want to
• 44:42
  be seen as first, do they want to
• 44:45
  dig the US out of a hole that
• 44:47
  the US government has dug for itself?
• 44:49
  Second, do they want to be seen as
• 44:51
  helping the US dig uh you know uh
• 44:53
  itself out of a hole?
• 44:55
  Um, but then really the the most important
• 44:58
  factor is even if the Chinese government really
• 45:01
  wanted to pressure the Iranian government um, you
• 45:04
  know, into well the Iranians aren't gonna lift
• 45:06
  their controls without some sort of deal.
• 45:09
  So deal with the United States, correct.
• 45:12
  Um brings the end.
• 45:14
  Even if it's an indirect deal, you know,
• 45:16
  maybe the Chinese come in as as as
• 45:18
  you know an outside power to help facilitate
• 45:19
  it or whatever, but there needs they're not
• 45:21
  going to lift their controls without some sort
• 45:23
  of US deal.
• 45:24
  There's not going to be a deal between
• 45:26
  Iran and the United States without the United
• 45:28
  States making major concessions.
• 45:29
  And Israel won't allow that to happen anyway,
• 45:31
  you look at it.
• 45:32
  So and and beyond, you know, even the
• 45:34
  issue of you know the Israeli lobby, etc.,
• 45:37
  um the United States is not that used
• 45:39
  to dealing with another geopolitical power that actually
• 45:41
  has leverage.
• 45:44
  We we we've kind of our political class
• 45:46
  has kind of bought in this mythology that
• 45:48
  you the only limit to American power is
• 45:50
  our imaginations, right?
• 45:53
  Um, which is is not true.
• 45:55
  There are other limits.
• 45:56
  Um so that's that's a problem of itself.
• 45:59
  But but really, sorry, the point I'm trying
• 46:00
  to make.
• 46:01
  I'm getting a little lost in the weeds
• 46:02
  here.
• 46:03
  No, no, no, this is great.
• 46:04
  Well, yeah, so there's the the US needs
• 46:06
  to make concessions for Iran to reopen straight.
• 46:09
  Um, but I think an another huge factor
• 46:11
  is let's say even the Chinese government really
• 46:13
  really wants to pressure Iran to make a
• 46:16
  deal with the US.
• 46:18
  So you need that factor of the US
• 46:19
  making concessions.
• 46:20
  Let's say the Chinese really really want that
• 46:21
  to happen.
• 46:22
  Um the Iranian can still say no.
• 46:24
  The Iranians can still say no.
• 46:26
  China does have huge leverage um with Iran
• 46:30
  uh economically and potentially militarily with uh helping
• 46:33
  their targeting capabilities or even military hardware.
• 46:37
  But they don't have you know, it's it's
• 46:41
  people just oversimplify things so much.
• 46:45
  Iran is not a chess piece on on
• 46:46
  the Chinese board, they cannot move it at
• 46:48
  will.
• 46:50
  They cannot say to the Iranians jump and
• 46:52
  the Iranians say how high.
• 46:54
  Um so even if China did want to
• 46:55
  pressure the Iranians, the Iranians can still say
• 46:57
  no.
• 46:59
  Think about the pressure that the Iranians have
• 47:01
  gotten from the United States government.
• 47:02
  Um US government killed their supreme leader and
• 47:05
  a bunch of their people blew up some
• 47:08
  bridges, uh, blew up some missiles, okay.
• 47:12
  Maybe only like 30%, yeah, killed some kids,
• 47:13
  etc.
• 47:15
  Uh threatened to end their civilization.
• 47:18
  Right.
• 47:19
  And and the Iranians still said, nah, no,
• 47:21
  we're not.
• 47:22
  Nope.
• 47:23
  We're gonna keep fighting, or we're gonna, you
• 47:24
  know, after the direct fighting, we're gonna keep
• 47:26
  blocking the straight of war moves, we're gonna
• 47:27
  steep keep controlling it.
• 47:29
  And why would the Chinese pressure from the
• 47:30
  US doesn't work?
• 47:31
  What the heck can the Chinese do to
• 47:33
  that's exactly right.
• 47:34
  That's right.
• 47:35
  And why would the Chinese want to highlight
• 47:36
  the fact that they can't reign in, you
• 47:37
  know?
• 47:39
  I mean, why that just makes it all?
• 47:41
  Exactly.
• 47:42
  Yeah.
• 47:42
  And and so what your argument is, and
• 47:44
  I I I think I I I absolutely
• 47:45
  agree with you.
• 47:46
  Your argument is China has enough maneuvering room
• 47:48
  right now where they can pretty much they
• 47:50
  need to pull in a chance.
• 47:53
  And and even if it comes to the
• 47:55
  point of imposing extreme restrictions, you know, on
• 47:58
  fossil fuel use in in their country, they
• 48:00
  can do that politically and justify it to
• 48:03
  their people, and the people are gonna accept
• 48:05
  it because their government didn't cause this problem.
• 48:08
  You know, they're they're gonna be much more
• 48:10
  willing to to endure that type of economic
• 48:11
  hardship.
• 48:12
  And once you get to that point, once
• 48:14
  you get to the point, and it is
• 48:15
  entirely plausible.
• 48:17
  If if we get to the point in
• 48:20
  a couple months where the Chinese government is
• 48:24
  drastically reducing oil usage in their country, we're
• 48:27
  already in a major global recession.
• 48:30
  Yeah.
• 48:32
  So let's let's talk also about this counter
• 48:35
  blockade we're doing in the Strait of Hormuz,
• 48:38
  and specifically the precedent it's setting.
• 48:42
  Um Sergei Karaganoff, who's a hawkish Russian advisor,
• 48:45
  informal advisor to Putin, wrote an essay in
• 48:49
  I keep forgetting the name of this journal.
• 48:53
  It's in Russia, it's the equivalent of foreign
• 48:54
  affairs in Russia.
• 48:56
  Okay.
• 48:56
  But he wrote in the last week an
• 48:59
  essay in which he basically outlined several steps
• 49:00
  Outlined several steps he was advising Putin to
• 49:02
  he was advising Putin to take to win,
• 49:03
  take to win, not negotiate, win the war
• 49:05
  not negotiate, win the war in Ukraine.
• 49:05
  in Ukraine.
• 49:08
  One of the things he recommended was something
• 49:08
  One of the things he recommended was something
• 49:10
  my buddy Michael Jan has been warning about,
• 49:10
  my buddy Michael Yan has been warning about,
• 49:12
  which was he was saying, if it really
• 49:12
  which was he was saying if it really
• 49:15
  comes down to it, we need to go
• 49:15
  comes down to it, we need to go
• 49:17
  after Europe's economy, and one of the things
• 49:17
  after Europe's economy, and one of the things
• 49:19
  we can do is either mine or blockade
• 49:19
  we can do is either mine or blockade
• 49:21
  the Danish Strait, which is not as important
• 49:21
  the Danish Strait, which is not as important
• 49:23
  as Strait of Remoose, but for Europe, Northern
• 49:23
  as Strait of Remoose, but for Europe, Northern
• 49:25
  Europe, and Eastern Europe, it's very important.
• 49:25
  Europe and Eastern Europe, it's very important.
• 49:28
  Um the
• 49:28
  Um the the Chinese are watching all of
• 49:30
  these moves.
• 49:32
  They're watching what we're doing in the Panama
• 49:33
  Canal.
• 49:35
  Right.
• 49:36
  If it really comes down to a geopolitical
• 49:39
  crisis, they don't necessarily have to invade Taiwan.
• 49:42
  They could just blockade the Taiwan Strait.
• 49:44
  Wouldn't that be something they would be interested
• 49:47
  in doing if it really came to a
• 49:49
  breakdown in Sino American relations?
• 49:52
  No.
• 49:52
  I don't think so.
• 49:53
  I don't think so.
• 49:54
  No, because they are more dependent on trade
• 49:56
  through that strait than anybody else.
• 49:59
  Okay.
• 49:59
  Um also people talk about the Straits of
• 50:00
  Malacca.
• 50:02
  Malacca, the Malacca dilemma.
• 50:04
  Yes.
• 50:04
  Um, so you know, theoretically, either the US
• 50:06
  or China uh could blockade that trade route
• 50:08
  too.
• 50:10
  Um, but China, you know, uh they have
• 50:13
  the Chinese government has no interest in interfering
• 50:16
  with with international trade routes because they're the
• 50:18
  world's biggest trading partner or of you know
• 50:21
  the biggest trading country, um, number one trading
• 50:24
  partner of a whole bunch of countries, right?
• 50:27
  So um ultimately that wouldn't be in their
• 50:28
  interest.
• 50:29
  They would like to have the ability to
• 50:32
  do that, um, for sure, but they they
• 50:34
  have no interest in in doing that.
• 50:36
  And I actually kind of think it's an
• 50:39
  interesting point that you bring up, though, because
• 50:41
  I think we've kind of seen an inversion
• 50:43
  of a longstanding uh geopolitical or foreign policy
• 50:46
  myth, which is that uh the United States,
• 50:48
  we have this wonderful giant massive Navy.
• 50:50
  Why?
• 50:51
  Well, it's of course to protect trade routes.
• 50:54
  And maybe that was true when the United
• 50:56
  States was the world's uh largest trading country,
• 50:59
  but we were replaced in that position uh
• 51:01
  around about 15 years ago now by China.
• 51:03
  So actually, arguably, no, no, no.
• 51:06
  The point of the US Navy is to
• 51:08
  screw with other people or or to have
• 51:10
  the latent threat or capability of screwing with
• 51:12
  people's trade routes.
• 51:14
  And uh actually, I mean, you kind of
• 51:16
  see that's effectively the way things have shifted
• 51:17
  over the last uh I mean five years
• 51:19
  or so, right?
• 51:21
  You have US Navy seizing all these shadow
• 51:24
  fleet vessels, right?
• 51:26
  Um, but that's just unilateral US uh sanctions
• 51:29
  that the US just said you can't trade,
• 51:31
  so we're we're gonna take your ship.
• 51:33
  Uh some people might say it's a form
• 51:35
  of piracy.
• 51:36
  Um, but but ultimately it is.
• 51:39
  Uh well, ultimately, you know, the strong do
• 51:40
  what they can and the weak do what
• 51:41
  they must.
• 51:42
  Right.
• 51:43
  Um but but and you know that is
• 51:45
  a global reality, but I I mean I
• 51:48
  think there is a threat here to to
• 51:51
  move into blatant piracy as your relative strength
• 51:53
  starts declining against your major rival.
• 51:56
  And then it does get a little dangerous.
• 51:58
  It does get a little dangerous, and uh
• 52:00
  you you're you're bringing up a point though
• 52:03
  back to the declining power comment.
• 52:05
  Um do you believe that there's a consensus
• 52:08
  among China's elite, at least behind the scenes,
• 52:10
  that as long as they keep their powder
• 52:13
  dry, America like the Soviet Union of old
• 52:15
  will simply implode because of the internal contradictions
• 52:18
  here, and they don't really have to do
• 52:20
  much, or do you think they're going to
• 52:23
  miss so one of the things I keep
• 52:25
  hearing from people in in the West is
• 52:27
  well, that comment by G indicates that there's
• 52:30
  overconfidence.
• 52:32
  And this is something Li Kwan Yu warned
• 52:35
  in 2010, uh a group of graduating students
• 52:38
  from I think Xinghua University, he said, be
• 52:41
  careful because unlike your parents, you've only known
• 52:44
  the prosperity of the last 20 years.
• 52:48
  You've been raised on the wolf's milk, he
• 52:50
  said of nationalism, which could lead to really
• 52:52
  bad strategic consequences.
• 52:54
  Do you think that a the Chinese believe
• 52:58
  we are in you know irreversible decline?
• 53:02
  And do you believe this belief, if they
• 53:06
  have it, could lead to a really bad
• 53:09
  miscalculation on their part geopolitically?
• 53:13
  Uh that's a that's a great question.
• 53:15
  Um, I think they believe that the United
• 53:19
  States isn't necessarily an irreversible decline.
• 53:22
  I think they believe that the United States
• 53:25
  is in relative uh decline geopolitically, but again,
• 53:27
  a lot of that is just because the
• 53:29
  China stopped being so poor and so poorly
• 53:31
  run.
• 53:34
  Um I I don't based on my reading,
• 53:40
  I don't see a huge underestimation of U.S.
• 53:46
  potential in China.
• 53:47
  I think they're they still acknowledge that the
• 53:49
  US and even a relatively declining US is
• 53:52
  still extremely powerful.
• 53:54
  Um and maybe even potentially dangerous, more dangerous
• 53:57
  or unpredictable as as the relative power starts
• 54:00
  waning.
• 54:03
  Um as the second question, like is this
• 54:05
  gonna lead to strategic miscalculation?
• 54:08
  I I don't think so, so long as
• 54:10
  the Chinese government does not act in a
• 54:13
  blatantly aggressive manner, um, you know, in terms
• 54:16
  of foreign conflicts.
• 54:19
  Um I think that's that's that's likely to
• 54:21
  continue because again, as the the world's largest
• 54:24
  trading nation, they have an overall interest in
• 54:26
  stability, they have an overall interest in keeping
• 54:28
  trade routes open.
• 54:31
  Um, and in the event of them starting
• 54:34
  a war in their neighborhood, they know that
• 54:37
  even a weakened, even a weakened United States,
• 54:40
  uh, even if the United States was significantly
• 54:42
  weaker than China is, let's say, in 20
• 54:45
  or 30 years, uh, it's still unless there's
• 54:48
  a huge disaster within the US, uh, it's
• 54:51
  still going to be a relatively powerful geopolitical
• 54:54
  player that if if China starts acting super
• 54:57
  aggressively, then you know the United States and
• 55:00
  say India or the United States and India
• 55:03
  and and Japan could all work together to
• 55:06
  to thwart Chinese um, you know, any major
• 55:09
  Chinese uh expansionist move.
• 55:12
  So uh overall, I would say their perception
• 55:15
  is the United States is is in relative
• 55:17
  decline, but not in necessarily in rapid relative
• 55:19
  decline.
• 55:22
  And that even a decline in the United
• 55:24
  States is still dangerous, and I still see
• 55:26
  that the general idea is is to play
• 55:29
  it cool because again, uh time's on their
• 55:31
  side, so why rock the boat?
• 55:33
  I thank you for listening today.
• 55:35
  And thank you for joining us on the
• 55:37
  mission.
• 55:38
  The national security hour is the tip of
• 55:40
  the spear and the epic battle to defend
• 55:42
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• 55:44
  I'm your America always first host, Brandon Weikert.
• 55:49
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• 55:51
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• 55:53
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