Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Buffet with Chad and Scooch, Episode 20 - Featuring Matt Moore

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The Buffet with Chad and Scooch, Episode 20 - Featuring Matt Moore · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:02
Speaker 1: Coming to you from fabulous Las Vegas. The right side
0:07
Speaker 1: is the winning side. The late move is the correct move.
0:10
Speaker 1: Sports betting capital of the world. We all know when
0:14
Speaker 1: a sharp like me weighs in the lines move, it's
0:17
Speaker 1: a party for your ears. This is the Buffet with
0:26
Speaker 1: Chad and Scooch. I want to buy that guy at buffet.
0:31
Speaker 1: Wow Wow Wow. Welcome to the Buffet Podcast with Chad
0:39
Speaker 1: and Scooch, part of the Action Network. I am Chad.
0:42
Speaker 1: Moment on the phone with me from the Orleans and
0:44
Speaker 1: all the Boyd gaming books in the state of Nevada.
0:47
Speaker 1: Bob Scocci, my man Scooch. How you doing, Buddy? I'm good.
0:50
Speaker 1: How are you? Chad? Keep good? So you and I
0:53
Speaker 1: are gonna recap a Super Bowl which was epic in
0:56
Speaker 1: every single way from a betting perspective, from a game perspective. Uh.
1:00
Speaker 1: Later on in the show, Matt Moore Hardwood Paroxysm, the
1:04
Speaker 1: lead NBA analyst for the Action Network, is going to
1:08
Speaker 1: come on because there is crazy, crazy stuff to talk
1:10
Speaker 1: about in the NBA with you know, the piston streaking
1:14
Speaker 1: and the calves, a fundamental mess on the floor on
1:20
Speaker 1: the board. Um, really amazing to see this this collapse.
1:25
Speaker 1: The Lakers the hottest team in the NBA right now. So, um,
1:28
Speaker 1: that's gonna come on. We're gonna talk about all the
1:29
Speaker 1: NBA stuff from a betting perspective, But first, Scooch, are
1:33
Speaker 1: you hungover? How do you feel the Super Bowl biggest
1:37
Speaker 1: Super Bowl Sunday in from the betting handle perspective in
1:41
Speaker 1: Nevada history? Well, um, well, I'll tell you every year,
1:47
Speaker 1: regardless of the results of the Super Bowl, regardless of
1:49
Speaker 1: how it goes, there's there's a kind of an empty
1:53
Speaker 1: void that that kind of comes with the end of
1:56
Speaker 1: the football season. It probably takes a couple of weeks
1:58
Speaker 1: before you kind of it back into the swing of
2:01
Speaker 1: the sports book and and you know, focus on college
2:04
Speaker 1: hoops and NBA. But regardless of the results, there's there's
2:08
Speaker 1: always that hangover. I mean literally, you feel like a
2:11
Speaker 1: hangover without the headache. Came in. I came in Monday
2:15
Speaker 1: morning and you're kind of doing all the recaps and
2:17
Speaker 1: getting all the numbers together for for the gaming control
2:20
Speaker 1: boards so that they can report on the win loss
2:23
Speaker 1: and everything. And uh yeah, that definitely the week after
2:27
Speaker 1: the Super bowls a rough one. Yeah, the I feel
2:31
Speaker 1: the same way. You know, we the Action Network did
2:34
Speaker 1: a live stream over Twitter on pregame show, in game show,
2:41
Speaker 1: and postgame show. They had a lot of a lot
2:44
Speaker 1: of viewers. Like combined the show has had like crazy
2:47
Speaker 1: amounts of viewers. Um, and we were I was like,
2:52
Speaker 1: and then you know, after the show, we after the game,
2:55
Speaker 1: and after the show was wrapped, we go downstairs, we
2:57
Speaker 1: have a drink whatever. Then I'm up early in the morning.
3:00
Speaker 1: I'm writing a newsletter for Action Network. Subscribe to the
3:02
Speaker 1: newsletter at Action network dot com. And like, I am
3:06
Speaker 1: beat man. I could barely function last night. I finally
3:09
Speaker 1: got home from the city and I could I couldn't move. Yeah,
3:12
Speaker 1: I mean days later. Uh you know, it's just, uh
3:17
Speaker 1: you think after a couple of days and getting a
3:19
Speaker 1: good night's rest that you'd still feel that you'd feel okay,
3:22
Speaker 1: but you don't. I mean even last night. So we're
3:24
Speaker 1: talking about Tuesday, a couple of days after the game,
3:27
Speaker 1: and I was still just not myself. And um, you know,
3:30
Speaker 1: like I said, it takes a good week and and
3:33
Speaker 1: so we still got a few more days to go
3:34
Speaker 1: to kind of feel normal after you know, you get
3:37
Speaker 1: such a fever pitch leading up to the game, and
3:40
Speaker 1: like I said, it culminates an entire season where you
3:43
Speaker 1: get into this routine where Sunday, you know, you have
3:46
Speaker 1: all the games, you post the numbers for the following week,
3:49
Speaker 1: you gear up during the week, you put the parlay
3:51
Speaker 1: cards together, you gear up for the weekend, and then
3:54
Speaker 1: like after each Sunday, there's a little bit of a breather,
3:56
Speaker 1: and then you get back into that routine again. And
3:59
Speaker 1: after that final Super you know, the final game of
4:02
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, you're still looking for that same routine
4:05
Speaker 1: and it's gone and and that kind of takes them
4:08
Speaker 1: getting used to. Did uh you know you mentioned getting
4:13
Speaker 1: the numbers together for the Nevada game and Control board
4:16
Speaker 1: they reported that the handle in Nevada for this Super
4:20
Speaker 1: Bowl was a hundred and fifty eight million dollars. That
4:23
Speaker 1: was twenty million dollars than the previous year, which had
4:27
Speaker 1: been six million dollars than the previous year. That is
4:31
Speaker 1: a massive increase, Scooch, Uh, did you notice that during
4:36
Speaker 1: the game? Did you notice more money coming in that
4:40
Speaker 1: you had in your past? Uh? I didn't notice the
4:44
Speaker 1: big difference. And I think you know, one of the
4:47
Speaker 1: things that the Gaming Control Board does not report is
4:49
Speaker 1: the number of tickets written. And I would really be
4:52
Speaker 1: curious to see that as an indicator of how many
4:55
Speaker 1: more people are actually wagering. You know, it's hard, it's
4:59
Speaker 1: hard to kind. I mean, obviously it's a record in
5:02
Speaker 1: terms of handle. But you know, if you have one
5:04
Speaker 1: guy that's betting ten million, then yeah, that's going to
5:06
Speaker 1: affect the handle. So and then that's also going to
5:09
Speaker 1: affect if you if you take ten million from one
5:11
Speaker 1: guy that didn't bet the previous year and then you
5:14
Speaker 1: move the line to get money on the other side,
5:17
Speaker 1: then that theoretically could become twenty million. And there's the
5:20
Speaker 1: twenty million difference from from year to year. So, but
5:24
Speaker 1: but it always seems busy. I mean, when you're running
5:28
Speaker 1: at capacity, it's hard to tell the difference of you know,
5:32
Speaker 1: how much busier it is. You have every window open,
5:34
Speaker 1: you have all hands on deck, you're just packed, all
5:37
Speaker 1: your properties are packed. So it always seems it always
5:41
Speaker 1: seems busy. You're obviously referring to this guy better X. Yeah, so, uh,
5:49
Speaker 1: when that's happening in Vegas, how are bookmakers reacting? Are
5:52
Speaker 1: there like calls going around town? Hey, this guy just
5:55
Speaker 1: came in and hit me for a million, or like,
5:57
Speaker 1: how do how does the word get out? I don't
6:00
Speaker 1: think the bookmakers themselves really uh talk about it much.
6:04
Speaker 1: I think the word gets out, you know, the somebody
6:08
Speaker 1: inside that either took the bed or the or was
6:10
Speaker 1: near the counter when they heard about the bet being made,
6:13
Speaker 1: and the word gets out pretty quick. And then usually
6:15
Speaker 1: one of the somebody in the media will call up
6:17
Speaker 1: and say, hey, we heard reports that you know, you
6:20
Speaker 1: took this big bed. You know, can you confirm it?
6:22
Speaker 1: And you know, depending on the operator, they'll either confirm
6:25
Speaker 1: it or not comment on it. But but you know,
6:29
Speaker 1: typically the word gets out through kind of the grapevine,
6:32
Speaker 1: but not necessarily from the bookmaker. Occasionally the bookmaker will
6:35
Speaker 1: want to share and say, yeah, we just took a
6:38
Speaker 1: million dollar bet or a two million dollar bet, and
6:40
Speaker 1: you know, that's up to the operator to share that
6:43
Speaker 1: information or not. What do you get by sharing it
6:47
Speaker 1: versus not sharing it? I guess a little publicity. But
6:52
Speaker 1: I was always maybe just kind of close to the
6:57
Speaker 1: vest I don't really want to share the act wagers
7:00
Speaker 1: that I'm taking, particularly if they're from people that don't
7:03
Speaker 1: really want to other people to know that they're betting
7:06
Speaker 1: those large amounts. You know, I've I've had kind of
7:09
Speaker 1: high profile uh, individuals want to make large wagers, and
7:13
Speaker 1: I don't think they'd really appreciate me going out about
7:17
Speaker 1: and saying who they are, and you know how much
7:19
Speaker 1: they're betting on the game. You know, if it's up
7:21
Speaker 1: to them, if they want to share that information, that's
7:24
Speaker 1: up to them. You know. In years past, obviously Floyd
7:27
Speaker 1: Mayweather is you know, posted some of his wagers and
7:30
Speaker 1: and uh that that's up to the the individual. But
7:34
Speaker 1: you know, not everyone wants to be that public. So
7:37
Speaker 1: better acts is coming around. He's allegedly betting and I
7:43
Speaker 1: say allegedly not because he doesn't exist, just because the
7:46
Speaker 1: the totals are hard to pin down. Um, you know
7:50
Speaker 1: upwards of say seven million dollars on the Super Bowl
7:54
Speaker 1: spread out about town and all of it on the Eagles.
7:59
Speaker 1: That guy cash is some seriously seriously big tickets that
8:04
Speaker 1: could be where April honds of sort of the added
8:08
Speaker 1: handle comes from when you're talking about that increase from yeah, absolutely,
8:14
Speaker 1: And like I said, there's kind of a ripple effect
8:16
Speaker 1: and that you know, you take a big wager on
8:18
Speaker 1: one side and you try to balance the action a
8:20
Speaker 1: little bit, and maybe you move the line a little
8:22
Speaker 1: bit lower than you would normally move it to. So
8:25
Speaker 1: for example, you know, if the guy did bet let's
8:28
Speaker 1: say the Eagles on the money line and he took uh,
8:31
Speaker 1: you know, plus one seventy, which was you know what
8:33
Speaker 1: it was at one time, and then later on in
8:36
Speaker 1: the in the week, uh, the casino lowers it so
8:41
Speaker 1: much to get Patriots money that maybe they lower it
8:43
Speaker 1: to minus one seventy just to get money on the
8:46
Speaker 1: other side. And you know, they're they're kind of there's
8:50
Speaker 1: not much earned there because you've got one guy taken
8:53
Speaker 1: plus one seventy and you got another one laying one seventy.
8:56
Speaker 1: But at least you're trying to balance some of the
8:58
Speaker 1: action now. And maybe that's where a lot of that
9:01
Speaker 1: additional handle comes from. I've experienced it in the past
9:06
Speaker 1: when our company has acquired a new property and let's say,
9:11
Speaker 1: you know, we we acquire a new casino that we
9:13
Speaker 1: didn't have the prior year. Not only did we get
9:15
Speaker 1: the handle, the additional handle from that property, but also
9:19
Speaker 1: the handle increases at our old properties as well, because
9:23
Speaker 1: maybe we're taking a a hundred thousand dollar wager on
9:26
Speaker 1: this game. Here we move the line, and now we're
9:28
Speaker 1: taking additional handle at our other properties, so you get
9:33
Speaker 1: that kind of ripple effect. I was really encouraged by it.
9:39
Speaker 1: Actually didn't even occur to me that it could be
9:41
Speaker 1: from better acts until you've mentioned, yeah, there could be
9:43
Speaker 1: one guy that in seven million around town, and that
9:46
Speaker 1: makes up about the you know, potentially increased handle. Um,
9:52
Speaker 1: because I just love the idea that people are getting
9:53
Speaker 1: more and more active about betting. Do you get any
9:56
Speaker 1: sense any sense of that from the book this weekend? Yeah?
9:59
Speaker 1: Absolutely so. I think another element of the increased handle
10:02
Speaker 1: was the edit features on a lot of mobile apps
10:06
Speaker 1: that allow in game wagering. I've from talking to some
10:11
Speaker 1: of the other bookmakers in town, the properties that did
10:15
Speaker 1: pretty well, not pretty well, but better than other properties
10:18
Speaker 1: on the on the game, UH accounted for it by
10:21
Speaker 1: saying that they want on the in progress wagering. So,
10:25
Speaker 1: in other words, the books that did okay on the
10:26
Speaker 1: game made up made up for it with a lot
10:29
Speaker 1: of Patriots money in game wagering. UH. And that element
10:33
Speaker 1: didn't exist five years ago or even four years ago
10:36
Speaker 1: in a lot of places. So the fact that more
10:38
Speaker 1: and more casinos are getting this on the app is
10:41
Speaker 1: creating more betting opportunities. Uh. You know, we tried something
10:45
Speaker 1: that we never did before, and we actually put up
10:48
Speaker 1: second half player prop wagering at halftime. Uh, you know,
10:53
Speaker 1: with the with the extended halftime of the Super Bowl
10:55
Speaker 1: allowed us a little bit of time to put together
10:58
Speaker 1: Tom Brady's total passing arts for just the second half,
11:01
Speaker 1: Nick Foles passing yards for just the second half, total
11:04
Speaker 1: number of points scored, just all the same props that
11:06
Speaker 1: you would see pregame. We put them up at halftime
11:10
Speaker 1: and I was surprised at how much action we got
11:12
Speaker 1: on it. I mean, we just threw them up there
11:14
Speaker 1: in a matter of four or five minutes, and they
11:17
Speaker 1: had about thirty minutes to bet it, and they just
11:19
Speaker 1: pounded a lot of those propositions. So all new wagering
11:23
Speaker 1: opportunities are expanded betting menu. All that contributes to you know, uh,
11:30
Speaker 1: added popularity in sports betting. There's more sports books than
11:33
Speaker 1: there ever were there. They're still popping up, so yeah,
11:37
Speaker 1: I mean it's real encouraging for for sports betting. What
11:40
Speaker 1: is the biggest bet you took during the Super Bowl? Yeah,
11:44
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna I'm not going to share that, but Scoots,
11:47
Speaker 1: I'm not asking you to say who I just over?
11:51
Speaker 1: I know, but I'm not It was it more or
11:55
Speaker 1: less than seven figures? You've told me when you've had
11:57
Speaker 1: like big six figure bets before. Well, sometimes I'm able
12:01
Speaker 1: to share it and sometimes I'm not. But it was
12:03
Speaker 1: less than seven figures, I'm gonna take that to be
12:07
Speaker 1: high six figure heres then, and so, um, what what
12:12
Speaker 1: bet did you lose? What was the best outcome for
12:14
Speaker 1: you for this game? The best outcome would have been
12:18
Speaker 1: the Patriots covering the spread. Actually, if they were to
12:22
Speaker 1: cover the spread by a twelve and cover teasers and
12:26
Speaker 1: the games stay under, so the absolute best score would
12:29
Speaker 1: have been seven to ten. That would have been the
12:33
Speaker 1: ultimate we probably would have held about for the Super Bowl. Uh,
12:38
Speaker 1: you know, the next obvious. Uh, any kind of Patriots
12:42
Speaker 1: covering would have been the next best scenario with the
12:44
Speaker 1: game staying under. Um, even if the Patriots won the
12:48
Speaker 1: game outright and still flew over the way it did so,
12:52
Speaker 1: even sitting when it was at thirty three thirty two, Uh,
12:56
Speaker 1: that would have been okay, I would have been It
12:59
Speaker 1: wouldn't have been great, but just a huge difference from um,
13:02
Speaker 1: the Eagles winning the game out right the way they
13:05
Speaker 1: did and and flying over the way it did. Boy. So, really,
13:11
Speaker 1: the worst thing that could possibly happen was happening like
13:13
Speaker 1: the Eagles winning outright and it going over the The
13:18
Speaker 1: only thing would have been a little worse is if
13:22
Speaker 1: the under teasers came into play. So, in other words,
13:26
Speaker 1: fifties six and a half points was right around the
13:29
Speaker 1: number where people were betting the Eagles plus eleven and
13:32
Speaker 1: a half and under fifty six and a half in
13:35
Speaker 1: a two team teaser, and uh, it would have been
13:39
Speaker 1: possible for all four teaser combinations to come in. Uh.
13:44
Speaker 1: If you know, the Eagles had won by let's say
13:46
Speaker 1: one or two and the game hovered around fifty five
13:49
Speaker 1: fifty six, that would have been an even worse outcome
13:52
Speaker 1: than what we saw right now. So this is probably
13:54
Speaker 1: the second worst that could have happened. UM, yeah, I
13:59
Speaker 1: feel bad for you about that. I'm sure you're doing
14:03
Speaker 1: sure everybody does, do you know? I was very vocal,
14:06
Speaker 1: very vocal in our pregame show that people could watch
14:11
Speaker 1: at Action Network HQ on Twitter and you can still
14:14
Speaker 1: follow us at Action Network HQ on Twitter, Um that
14:18
Speaker 1: the Eagles are gonna win this game out right. I'm like,
14:20
Speaker 1: the Eagle's gonna cover. The Eagles are gonna win this
14:22
Speaker 1: game out right. They're a better team. I thought they
14:26
Speaker 1: matched up really well. I thought Nick Foles, largely because
14:30
Speaker 1: of the conversation you and I had had, Um was
14:33
Speaker 1: just a much better quarterback than he was being given
14:35
Speaker 1: credit for from a point spread perspective by the bookmakers. Clearly,
14:39
Speaker 1: you guys made a mistake in this game and Um,
14:42
Speaker 1: so I was thrilled to see it. Uh. I also
14:46
Speaker 1: won my underbet on the national anthem because I was
14:51
Speaker 1: originally on the over and very vocal that I was
14:52
Speaker 1: on the over. But the day before there were all
14:55
Speaker 1: those rumors about Pink having the flu and her rehearsal
14:59
Speaker 1: time were leaked, so I knew that she had rehearsed
15:03
Speaker 1: between one fifty and one fifty four, and so I
15:07
Speaker 1: went all in on the under. I had Nelson Agalore
15:10
Speaker 1: over forty two and a half yards. UM. That was
15:13
Speaker 1: a big one for me. The Action Network went twenty
15:18
Speaker 1: and three in the fifty two props that we had
15:22
Speaker 1: written about Um during the week up to the Super Bowl,
15:26
Speaker 1: so you would have wanted a bunch of coin by
15:28
Speaker 1: following Action Network there, and we had our leads on
15:32
Speaker 1: the Patriots to cover um on the over, which was
15:36
Speaker 1: our best bet from our sports insides algorithm. I mean,
15:40
Speaker 1: we nailed it. Like it's it's like you are lucky
15:44
Speaker 1: that we did not spend all of our time in
15:46
Speaker 1: the Orleans Sports Book because we would have. Uh, we
15:50
Speaker 1: don't avoid gaming right now, you know why I feel
15:54
Speaker 1: fortunate about that. How did how did our right side
15:57
Speaker 1: as the winning side prop by at do prop rashadat?
16:03
Speaker 1: How did that one do well? We we got a
16:05
Speaker 1: lot of handle on it, a lot of interest in it.
16:08
Speaker 1: And as he predicted and as we talked about more
16:12
Speaker 1: people that yes, that there would be more yards from
16:15
Speaker 1: scrimmage from the team that won the game, and it
16:17
Speaker 1: was like minus dollar sixty and it did not win.
16:21
Speaker 1: As he kind of pointed out, a lot of times,
16:23
Speaker 1: the losing team ends up with more yards from scrimmage.
16:26
Speaker 1: So um, we did okay on the prop and it
16:29
Speaker 1: went about as we expected. I really like that problem.
16:32
Speaker 1: That's a great problem. You're gonna have to use that
16:33
Speaker 1: again next year? Yeah, we probably will. You know, we've
16:36
Speaker 1: we've been doing this for you know, like you said,
16:37
Speaker 1: I don't know, ten years and a lot of times
16:39
Speaker 1: there's a prop that kind of works and we use
16:41
Speaker 1: it for three or four years following uh, the year
16:44
Speaker 1: that it won the contest. So I think that's one
16:46
Speaker 1: of them that will stick around. What was the handle
16:49
Speaker 1: on that prople? We wrote probably about a little over
16:54
Speaker 1: twenty on that prop. No way, Yeah, one thousand in
17:01
Speaker 1: tickets on the get your Prop up in Vegas winning props. Yeah. Yeah,
17:06
Speaker 1: a ton of action on that one, I mean really
17:10
Speaker 1: and we want a little money on that one. Yeah,
17:11
Speaker 1: one of the few props that we won money. Yeah,
17:15
Speaker 1: you got killed on props like props because everything went over,
17:19
Speaker 1: Everything went over everyone. Yes, you know, everyone bets yes,
17:23
Speaker 1: Gronkyle skill score, Yes, uh, Mundo will score, and yes
17:27
Speaker 1: we'll go over the yardage over this. Everyone bets over.
17:31
Speaker 1: Everybody bets, yes they'll be scoring and in a high
17:33
Speaker 1: scoring game with over eleven hundred yards. Yeah, there's gonna
17:37
Speaker 1: be a lot of those props coming in. But I'll
17:39
Speaker 1: tell you the worst one, and it was kind of
17:42
Speaker 1: a double edged sword because of what we were rooting for.
17:45
Speaker 1: It was the end of the second It was the
17:46
Speaker 1: end of the first half, and one of our biggest
17:48
Speaker 1: props was will there be a score in the last
17:51
Speaker 1: two minutes of the first half, And we had a
17:55
Speaker 1: ton of money on the no, meaning everyone's betting that
17:59
Speaker 1: there would not be a scoring play in the last
18:02
Speaker 1: two minutes of the first half. So here we are,
18:04
Speaker 1: We're rooting for any kind of score, whether it's a
18:07
Speaker 1: field goal, a touchdown. We didn't care. We just wanted
18:09
Speaker 1: somebody to score in the last two minutes of the
18:12
Speaker 1: first half. So here the Eagles are and they're at
18:16
Speaker 1: the one, and you know, we're hoping for them to
18:19
Speaker 1: kick the field goal, which they don't. They line up
18:22
Speaker 1: and uh that they throw that play, And before we
18:26
Speaker 1: realized that Nick Foles caught the touchdown, we just were
18:30
Speaker 1: like elated that, oh, yes, we got the score. We
18:32
Speaker 1: won that prop. And then we realized who scored the touchdown,
18:35
Speaker 1: And that was one of the worst props that could
18:37
Speaker 1: have happened, because Nick Foles was like six to one,
18:40
Speaker 1: seven to one to score a touchdown, and we got
18:43
Speaker 1: annihilated on that. So whatever we saved on the proper
18:46
Speaker 1: we're rooting for, we lost that and double on Nick
18:50
Speaker 1: Foles scoring the touchdown that last nine of the first
18:53
Speaker 1: half was insane because you had the I think there
18:58
Speaker 1: was a problem will there be more than two people
19:03
Speaker 1: throwing passes in the game, and so that happened. You
19:06
Speaker 1: had Nick Foles to score a touchdown, which in some
19:09
Speaker 1: places was eight to one. UM. I think that also
19:13
Speaker 1: helped hit the first half over. Maybe UM or maybe
19:17
Speaker 1: I hit her first half over for total points by
19:19
Speaker 1: the Eagles, I can't remember, but something that I was
19:21
Speaker 1: in play, like in the last um it was it
19:26
Speaker 1: was insanity. It was totally insanity. There was a flurry
19:30
Speaker 1: of just all the props hitting in the last couple
19:33
Speaker 1: of minutes of that first half. There's so many props
19:36
Speaker 1: in play right up until you know, the last second.
19:41
Speaker 1: It was really fun, as it better, it was really
19:43
Speaker 1: really fun. Yeah, you know, it's really odd for me
19:47
Speaker 1: to try and be objective about it, because you know,
19:49
Speaker 1: I did a lot of shows on Monday following the
19:52
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and maybe it was a little too fresh
19:54
Speaker 1: in my mind. But it was obviously the not not
19:57
Speaker 1: the best outcome for us, and it was really disappointing
20:00
Speaker 1: from from our end, so to kind of say it
20:03
Speaker 1: was one of the greatest games of all time? You really, really,
20:07
Speaker 1: it's too close to the game right now for me
20:09
Speaker 1: to say that. Maybe three or four years down the
20:12
Speaker 1: road when I look back on it, I'll say, yeah,
20:14
Speaker 1: it was an exciting game, but uh, you know, right now,
20:18
Speaker 1: in my mind, it was a terrible game. Um what what?
20:25
Speaker 1: What shows were you doing? A lot of local ones? Uh,
20:29
Speaker 1: there's a couple of local sports talk shows that I've
20:32
Speaker 1: been doing regularly for the last couple of years, and um,
20:36
Speaker 1: and did one in the morning and one at night,
20:38
Speaker 1: and kind of the same questions, as you know, it
20:40
Speaker 1: wasn't it the most exciting, the greatest game of all time?
20:44
Speaker 1: And I'm like, I'm not from where I sit, you know,
20:47
Speaker 1: I gotta take that bookmaker hat off maybe and just
20:51
Speaker 1: kind of rewatch it as just a football fan. And
20:54
Speaker 1: it kind of reminds me of the Patriots Panthers. If
20:56
Speaker 1: you remember that Super Bowl where it was kind of
20:59
Speaker 1: a low scoring first half, but then it just blew
21:01
Speaker 1: up in the second half and it was back and forth,
21:03
Speaker 1: back and forth, and but that one we were kind
21:06
Speaker 1: of on the right side of. So I still think
21:08
Speaker 1: of that as being one of the most exciting Super Bowls. Uh,
21:11
Speaker 1: you know, I guess it just depends on the outcome
21:14
Speaker 1: of the game and who you need for you to
21:16
Speaker 1: say whether it was a great game or not. Not coincidentally,
21:20
Speaker 1: that's the last time Justin timber Lake made an appearance
21:23
Speaker 1: at the halftime show. Was that the one with the
21:26
Speaker 1: Janet Jackson? Yeah, that was Nipplegate. I was wondering about
21:29
Speaker 1: that because, you know, I was so busy during halftime.
21:32
Speaker 1: I missed the entire halftime show with you know, typical.
21:35
Speaker 1: But I was putting up all these props and booking
21:37
Speaker 1: the halftime and everything else, and but I heard it
21:41
Speaker 1: was a decent halftime show. You gotta make money, man.
21:44
Speaker 1: You can't be you know, watching j T when you
21:47
Speaker 1: got props to post and money to make and bets
21:50
Speaker 1: to take. Hey, did um, did you meet a rash
21:54
Speaker 1: sadat the winner of our contest? Because he was coming
21:56
Speaker 1: to Vegas for the bachelor party that he was going
21:58
Speaker 1: to be attending, and he was supposed to come get
22:01
Speaker 1: his buffet and take a picture of the prop on
22:03
Speaker 1: the board. I did not. Unfortunately, I don't. I didn't
22:07
Speaker 1: hear of him asking for me. If he did, I apologize.
22:10
Speaker 1: But I was here and I met a lot of
22:12
Speaker 1: folks that have come here in the past that listened
22:14
Speaker 1: to the podcast pretty regularly. I was able to talk
22:17
Speaker 1: to a few of them. I was out front as
22:20
Speaker 1: much as I could be, and but unfortunately I didn't
22:23
Speaker 1: get a chance to hook up with him. M hmm,
22:26
Speaker 1: too bad. Yeah, did you So at the end of
22:28
Speaker 1: the day, did you win or lose in the Super Bowl? Uh?
22:32
Speaker 1: We broke almost exactly even, which is a big loss,
22:37
Speaker 1: you know, considering that you're supposed to win money on
22:40
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. So that's that's your super Bowl, yep,
22:44
Speaker 1: I mean the whole state. I think the final figure
22:47
Speaker 1: was point zero seven hold percentage, which by any state. Yeah,
22:52
Speaker 1: you think about you know, spreading it over uh two
22:55
Speaker 1: hundred sports books, you know what does that amount to state?
23:01
Speaker 1: The entire state? The hold was one point one seven
23:05
Speaker 1: million dollars on a hundred and fifty eight million bets
23:09
Speaker 1: spread over two d books, two book. Yeah, that's about right,
23:15
Speaker 1: that's about what we did. Really, nobody made any money
23:21
Speaker 1: on this super Bowl. It's kind of insane. Yeah, I
23:23
Speaker 1: mean typical of any super Bowl. You start wondering what
23:27
Speaker 1: you could have done differently, how you could have um,
23:30
Speaker 1: you know, booked it a little differently, but we made up.
23:33
Speaker 1: We made our minds up early on that we weren't
23:36
Speaker 1: going to try and manipulate the way people were already
23:40
Speaker 1: inclined to bet. So we knew early on they were
23:42
Speaker 1: going to be betting the Eagles. So, you know, there
23:45
Speaker 1: was nothing we could do to put us in a
23:47
Speaker 1: position where we were going to have a great Super
23:49
Speaker 1: Bowl if the Eagles won. So it's just a matter
23:52
Speaker 1: of how much we want to get get back on
23:55
Speaker 1: the Patriots late, um, to kind of mitigate some of
23:59
Speaker 1: the loss. But you know, we we talked about it
24:02
Speaker 1: last week. We were the first place in town to
24:05
Speaker 1: go to four on the game. We saw the early
24:08
Speaker 1: Eagles money, so in my mind, you know, we actually
24:11
Speaker 1: saved I know you don't like to hear this, but
24:13
Speaker 1: we actually saved a little money because we went to
24:15
Speaker 1: four before anybody in town. And you know, if people
24:19
Speaker 1: were still betting the Eagles at that point, they were
24:21
Speaker 1: going to be grabbing plus four and a half plus five. Um.
24:25
Speaker 1: You know, there's only so much you can do to
24:27
Speaker 1: kind of steer the way people are going to be
24:29
Speaker 1: inclined to bet. Big Tony, Big Tony. I'm such a
24:32
Speaker 1: good bookmaker. You can't believe. You can't believe how much
24:36
Speaker 1: money we would have lost if I wasn't such a
24:37
Speaker 1: good bookmaker. That's true, I mean it really is true. Alright,
24:43
Speaker 1: good listen. Uh, this was officially a great season. And um,
24:50
Speaker 1: now we gotta start thinking about college basketball. We gotta
24:52
Speaker 1: start thinking about the NBA. Um. Now we got to
24:56
Speaker 1: get Alan Boston back on the podcast. Yeah, um, maybe
25:00
Speaker 1: he'll join both of us. How would you feel about
25:03
Speaker 1: I'm fine with that. I'll be I won't have to
25:07
Speaker 1: talk much. I love Alan, I miss Alan. Alright, we're
25:14
Speaker 1: gonna work on that for next week. All right, muster
25:17
Speaker 1: up the courage, all right, Scooch, great season, Thanks very much. Everybody,
25:21
Speaker 1: stick around because we have coming up next Matt Moore,
25:25
Speaker 1: lead NBA analysts for the Action Network at Hardwood Paroxysm.
25:30
Speaker 1: He's gonna come on. We're gonna talk about everything happening
25:32
Speaker 1: in the National Drama Association, trade deadline coming up, uh,
25:36
Speaker 1: playoff seatings in peril, all the stuff you need to
25:40
Speaker 1: know to be a smarter, better UM and a better fan.
25:43
Speaker 1: With Matt Moore coming right up joining me now on
25:45
Speaker 1: the buffet lead NBA analysts for the Action Network, longtime
25:50
Speaker 1: NBA reporter at Hardwood Paroxysm Twitter, fame, creator of the
25:56
Speaker 1: blog at her of the blog Hardwood Paroxysm. Matt Moore,
26:01
Speaker 1: what's going on, Buddy, A lot, a lot is going on,
26:05
Speaker 1: and I'm trying to keep track of all the stuff
26:07
Speaker 1: that's going on. It's it's not crazy. It's it's crazy,
26:11
Speaker 1: not as crazy as it could be. It's probably gonna
26:13
Speaker 1: get a little crazy the next twenty four hours is
26:15
Speaker 1: what I would say. It's gonna get even crazier. But yeah,
26:17
Speaker 1: it's been busy. Chairs. What seems crazy to me is
26:21
Speaker 1: this morning the Action Network newsletter that went out, we
26:25
Speaker 1: had a a sort of fourteen things you're hearing in
26:29
Speaker 1: the last thirty six hours before the trade deadline. We
26:32
Speaker 1: had a NBA Mega Batting guide for the slate that's
26:36
Speaker 1: going on tonight that includes UM, the Pistons, it includes
26:40
Speaker 1: the Calves, that includes the rockets. And then you had
26:44
Speaker 1: an email exclusive that was just going in the newsletter
26:48
Speaker 1: UM that UH was recapping the craziness just of last night.
26:53
Speaker 1: So we're recording this Wednesday afternoon. The thunder blowout, the Warriors,
26:58
Speaker 1: the Calves blow way eighteen point lead to the magic um.
27:03
Speaker 1: The Celtics lose to the Raptors and don't look very
27:06
Speaker 1: good doing it. So now the East is a very
27:09
Speaker 1: very tight race um. And that was before we could
27:12
Speaker 1: talk about anything that was happening tonight or in the
27:14
Speaker 1: next you know, couple of days and and and Porzingias
27:19
Speaker 1: tearing his a c L and the Lakers being the
27:21
Speaker 1: hottest team in the NBA. I mean that's twenty four
27:23
Speaker 1: hours ago and it's only and then like Blake, like
27:29
Speaker 1: Blake Griffin, feel like Blake Griffin got traded a year ago.
27:32
Speaker 1: Like Blake Griffin got traded. I still wrestled with this.
27:34
Speaker 1: I like, wake up. But I'm like Blake Griffin got traded,
27:36
Speaker 1: like the Clippers really brought him in and had him
27:39
Speaker 1: walk through a maze of his life and then had
27:42
Speaker 1: a mock ceremony retiring his jersey, gave him a five year,
27:45
Speaker 1: nearly two million dollar deal, and then traded him Like
27:49
Speaker 1: that's something that happened. Well last week. Yeah, there's a
27:52
Speaker 1: lot going on. The Porzingis injuries obviously terrible. We just
27:55
Speaker 1: had so many, so many injuries. Two major players, just
28:01
Speaker 1: major guys are out right now. Team Lebron for the
28:03
Speaker 1: All Star Game is lost. I think five guys, it's
28:06
Speaker 1: been absolute madness on that end. Um, the Lakers are
28:09
Speaker 1: red hot, even though they're recircling around. Um, the trade
28:13
Speaker 1: market is bonkers, and nobody knows what the Calves are
28:16
Speaker 1: gonna do, Like, no one knows where the Calves are
28:18
Speaker 1: at right now. So let's get let's get a little organized.
28:21
Speaker 1: We'll break it down in a couple of team by
28:23
Speaker 1: team uh fashions. Here for a second. Number one, I
28:27
Speaker 1: do want to talk about the Pistons. I find them
28:29
Speaker 1: to be fascinating and the addition of Blake. Even in
28:32
Speaker 1: the three games he's played there, he's looked really happy
28:35
Speaker 1: and the team has looked really good and connected. Is
28:39
Speaker 1: this all of a sudden a team that is sneaky contending?
28:44
Speaker 1: Like if you got money, are you putting money down
28:46
Speaker 1: on the Pistons for anything legitimate? From a Eastern Conference
28:51
Speaker 1: perspective right now? Yeah? I think the banging on the
28:54
Speaker 1: matchup and that's what I'm kind of looking at is like,
28:55
Speaker 1: all right, so you know there are only one game
28:58
Speaker 1: back of in the lost column from being tied for
29:02
Speaker 1: the sixth seed, Like they can get as as high
29:04
Speaker 1: as probably realistically four, they can make a run and
29:07
Speaker 1: get all the way up to four. They'll land somewhere
29:09
Speaker 1: between four and eight if they make it. Now, all
29:11
Speaker 1: the teams that are in in these spots, these are
29:13
Speaker 1: all really good teams. If you if you look at
29:15
Speaker 1: the East, Washington, Milwaukee, Indiana, Miami, Philadelphia, Detroit, those are
29:19
Speaker 1: all good teams. Uh, Detroit had a really hot start
29:21
Speaker 1: and then completely fell apart and tailed off. They've had injuries.
29:24
Speaker 1: Blake's obviously given them new life. He and Drummond are
29:27
Speaker 1: meshing together so well, and that kind of front court pairing.
29:31
Speaker 1: If you get them versus some of the teams in
29:34
Speaker 1: the East, if you get them against Milwaukee, that's gonna
29:37
Speaker 1: be playing John Henson and thought Maker a lot, unless
29:39
Speaker 1: they make a deal for DeAndre Jordan, which I'm hearing
29:41
Speaker 1: there's still very much in the mix. Four. Um, and
29:44
Speaker 1: they go up against Indiana where Miles Turner is really good,
29:47
Speaker 1: but Daddeus Young and power forward is undersized. Um, they
29:50
Speaker 1: could do damage there if they get up and they
29:52
Speaker 1: face it. Look, if they face Cleveland's I don't love
29:54
Speaker 1: that matchup just because they can tear them apart inside
29:57
Speaker 1: and pick and roll and be able to find guys.
29:59
Speaker 1: If they can lockdown shot, that's the big key for them.
30:01
Speaker 1: I think there's a honeymoon aspect of this, but they're
30:03
Speaker 1: defending really well. I've been really impressed with Andre Drummond,
30:07
Speaker 1: who could have seen Blake Griffin coming in and been
30:09
Speaker 1: and and go into a funk saying like, well, I
30:11
Speaker 1: guess I'm not the franchise guy anymore and getting really
30:14
Speaker 1: down on himself. But he's been fantastic. He has just
30:17
Speaker 1: been incredible. The passing for him this year is amazing.
30:20
Speaker 1: His free throw making is decent enough to where it's
30:22
Speaker 1: no longer a viable option to just foul him, and
30:25
Speaker 1: it's converting points per possession marks when they have to
30:28
Speaker 1: at a good rate. There's a lot going on with
30:31
Speaker 1: Detroit and I don't think they're done. I think that
30:33
Speaker 1: they want to have one more guy on the wing,
30:35
Speaker 1: and if they can do that, they're gonna be in
30:36
Speaker 1: a really good position, I think for a run. And
30:39
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be very interested to see what the what
30:40
Speaker 1: the line looks like for their series number, depending on
30:44
Speaker 1: where they lined up wind up in the matchups. Andre
30:46
Speaker 1: Drummond has very quietly become one of my most liked
30:51
Speaker 1: players in the NBA. He had a great line when
30:55
Speaker 1: he was named the name of the All Star team
30:58
Speaker 1: and I forgot some rookie was plaining about it and
31:01
Speaker 1: he came out and basically just shut him down. Um.
31:04
Speaker 1: And the way he's handled the Griffin trade has been
31:06
Speaker 1: really interesting, Like he's just in watching His body language
31:11
Speaker 1: is great. He is enjoying having him around. He's completely um.
31:16
Speaker 1: He's not changing his game, but he's willing to tailor
31:19
Speaker 1: a little bit of his game, UH to accommodate what
31:22
Speaker 1: Griffin is doing and sort of his load and personality
31:25
Speaker 1: in terms of being the face of that franchise, it's
31:27
Speaker 1: been really impressive. Yeah, and with him, it's about consistency
31:31
Speaker 1: and this has always been a thing with dry where
31:33
Speaker 1: where you know his rookie season, he came out and
31:35
Speaker 1: was so much better than we expected. After Yukon, he
31:37
Speaker 1: had a really bad reputation coming out of the draft
31:40
Speaker 1: as a guy that may not just love basketball and
31:42
Speaker 1: they just didn't know where he was going to be.
31:43
Speaker 1: He was labeled as like a headcase. And I saw
31:46
Speaker 1: that when I did the film work on him, and
31:47
Speaker 1: was like he just disappears at times, and he was
31:49
Speaker 1: great that first year, and so we set this new
31:51
Speaker 1: kind of bar. But over the next two seasons, next
31:54
Speaker 1: three seasons, really it's selled into the same routine, which
31:57
Speaker 1: is he would just vanish for long periods and it
32:00
Speaker 1: really frustrated the team and especially frustrated his coaches and
32:03
Speaker 1: Sam van Gundy wouldn't put up with it. I mean,
32:05
Speaker 1: he's been benched routinely in situations where he just vanishes completely,
32:10
Speaker 1: and that's a problem. But he's he was still so
32:12
Speaker 1: young and he's working past that now. And if you
32:15
Speaker 1: add in the consistency that he's bringing, the presence that
32:19
Speaker 1: he has physically and his passing ability, which we really
32:22
Speaker 1: did not realize what he was capable of until this year,
32:25
Speaker 1: it's a completely different dynamic. Detroit struggles to score, so
32:28
Speaker 1: having a guy that can attract the attention to the
32:30
Speaker 1: defense and passed like that is just it's huge for them.
32:34
Speaker 1: A drumman has absolutely been an All Star having a
32:36
Speaker 1: tripic season, and if they made the playoffs, he's gonna
32:38
Speaker 1: be a problem for some team to handle. Alright, So
32:42
Speaker 1: if we're talking mid season, be on the lookout post
32:46
Speaker 1: All Star break heading into the playoff values. Let's put
32:51
Speaker 1: let's put the Pistons. Let's just put the Pistons on
32:54
Speaker 1: our list. There on the list right now as a
32:56
Speaker 1: team you're gonna want to pay attention to and might
32:58
Speaker 1: get a little bit of action plus my because it
33:00
Speaker 1: could be value. Um. Another note you had in the
33:03
Speaker 1: newsletter today, sign up for Action network dot com. Uh,
33:07
Speaker 1: let's talk about the Lakers. Let's talk about the Lakers
33:10
Speaker 1: winning six or seven. Let's talk about them being one
33:12
Speaker 1: of the hottest teams in the NBA. They're not a
33:15
Speaker 1: dumpster fire. They're not going to make the playoffs, but
33:18
Speaker 1: they're they're stretching for that eight. Um, what's going on there?
33:23
Speaker 1: This is the one I found. The stat that found
33:25
Speaker 1: that was really shocking. So the Lakers are closer to
33:30
Speaker 1: being the eight seed in the West than the Calves
33:32
Speaker 1: are to being the one seed in the East. They
33:35
Speaker 1: are closer to being in the playoffs and the Calves
33:37
Speaker 1: already getting the number one seed, which so many bad
33:40
Speaker 1: things about the Calves. It just says so many bad things. UM.
33:44
Speaker 1: I am still really skeptical on the Lakers, and I
33:46
Speaker 1: would I would want to fade them in the second
33:48
Speaker 1: half of the season. Um, I think that they're having
33:50
Speaker 1: I've seen this where all bad teams will have about
33:55
Speaker 1: one to one and a half good months where they
33:58
Speaker 1: play sustained, consistent basket ball. It's usually in the middle
34:01
Speaker 1: of the season. And what happens is they catch good
34:04
Speaker 1: teams that are tired and not looking up, they catch
34:07
Speaker 1: injury plaque squad, they catch bad teams on back to backs, etcetera.
34:11
Speaker 1: They've beaten some good teams. The okay, see win was great.
34:13
Speaker 1: That was a great win for them. They're playing well.
34:16
Speaker 1: A lot of it is that they're playing well in
34:18
Speaker 1: capacities where it doesn't make a lot of sense for
34:20
Speaker 1: them to be good, Like they've been good defensively, and
34:22
Speaker 1: there's no reason this team should be good defensively. They
34:25
Speaker 1: have too many liabilities who are young for them to
34:27
Speaker 1: be there. So I'm really skeptical of how this is
34:29
Speaker 1: gonna look. The other thing is like what happens when
34:31
Speaker 1: Alonzo comes back, Because there's a simple answer that says
34:34
Speaker 1: Alonzo was good. They have a better net rating with
34:36
Speaker 1: Alonzo on the floor than off, so if you add him,
34:39
Speaker 1: everything is good. Well, we don't know what's about the
34:42
Speaker 1: dynamics and if they've discovered something during the stretch that's working.
34:45
Speaker 1: Inserting a guy like that could mess with the whole dynamic,
34:49
Speaker 1: and we just don't know what that's gonna look like.
34:50
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that they'll get worse. It just seems
34:52
Speaker 1: like it's it's possible that we don't know what the
34:54
Speaker 1: result is gonna be. The other thing to keep an
34:56
Speaker 1: eye on is the trade deadline, because they've burned a
34:59
Speaker 1: lot of bridges with Julius Randall, like that situation is
35:02
Speaker 1: pretty far gone um and I think for both sides,
35:05
Speaker 1: letting him out would be best because I don't think
35:07
Speaker 1: that they're gonna want to pay him this summer, and
35:09
Speaker 1: if they don't pay him this summer, he's obviously gone.
35:12
Speaker 1: So you want to get value for him now. And
35:14
Speaker 1: with the kind of teams that are out there that
35:15
Speaker 1: are looking for you know, we want X, Y Z.
35:19
Speaker 1: And if the picks aren't coming through, because picks right
35:22
Speaker 1: now in a really nebulous place on the trade market,
35:24
Speaker 1: I can see Randall getting moved and that's I think
35:27
Speaker 1: it's going to impact them in a big way because
35:28
Speaker 1: he's been really good for them. There's a lot of
35:30
Speaker 1: promise there. I think brandon Ingram has taken a huge
35:32
Speaker 1: steps forward. I think Luke Walton is getting better as
35:34
Speaker 1: a coach. I like um the way some of their
35:36
Speaker 1: young talent is playing. Kuzma is obviously really good offensively
35:40
Speaker 1: at least UM, but I have a lot of doubts
35:42
Speaker 1: about the sustainability of this and I want to know
35:45
Speaker 1: what happens when Alonzo gets back. All right, Um, I
35:49
Speaker 1: want to talk about the Raptors in the Celtics, and
35:51
Speaker 1: we got to spend a little It's always weird to
35:53
Speaker 1: talk about the East because at the end of the day,
35:56
Speaker 1: what does it matter, right Like, they're going to get
35:58
Speaker 1: to the finals and have to play the warrior Ers
36:00
Speaker 1: and then they're gonna lose. And so if we're looking
36:05
Speaker 1: at it from a future value perspective, we can get
36:08
Speaker 1: all excited about the Raptors at sixteen to one, but
36:11
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter if they're gonna end up having
36:13
Speaker 1: to play the Warriors, you know what I mean? Like,
36:16
Speaker 1: the Raptors are great, and they're they're playing really well
36:20
Speaker 1: right now, but what are you getting excited about if
36:23
Speaker 1: you know they're gonna have to play someone from Golden
36:26
Speaker 1: State in the finals. Well, I think your bet there
36:29
Speaker 1: is you want to play the Raptors to win the East,
36:31
Speaker 1: that that's where you want to go with those numbers,
36:33
Speaker 1: And um, I know that they were still getting they
36:36
Speaker 1: were getting considerably better numbers that the Celtics numbers. Like,
36:40
Speaker 1: the Celtics are pretty much the favorite in the Eastern
36:42
Speaker 1: Conference outside of the Calves the Cavs last to my
36:45
Speaker 1: check out to update those and take a look from
36:47
Speaker 1: Westgate where they're at. But for me, like the Raptors
36:51
Speaker 1: are a great bet to win the Eastern Conference. We
36:53
Speaker 1: saw it last night. They absolutely waxed Boston and they're
36:57
Speaker 1: now split one one. But Boston's playoff formula is a
37:01
Speaker 1: little bit sketchy. They got young defenders playing at a
37:03
Speaker 1: really high level, but their offense is absolutely dreadful. They
37:06
Speaker 1: need guys who are not shot makers to make shots,
37:09
Speaker 1: and they need young guys in clutch, tense situations to deliver.
37:13
Speaker 1: That's gonna be problematic. Kyrie Irving's offense is very easy
37:16
Speaker 1: to scheme for in a playoff environment, It's impossible to stop,
37:19
Speaker 1: but it's easy to scheme for, and that allows you
37:22
Speaker 1: to stay home on the other guys. So when you
37:23
Speaker 1: look at Toronto, Toronto hits you about a million different ways.
37:27
Speaker 1: You gotta make sure that Kyle Lowry and DeMar Deroz
37:29
Speaker 1: and both of those guys don't go off, because either
37:31
Speaker 1: one can go off for forty. As bad as they
37:33
Speaker 1: are in the playoffs, either one can step up and
37:36
Speaker 1: have a big game. Their bench is probably, in my opinion,
37:39
Speaker 1: maybe the best in the NBA. And it's a bunch
37:41
Speaker 1: of guys who no one's ever heard of. I mean,
37:43
Speaker 1: it's Fred van Vleet out of which top State, It's
37:47
Speaker 1: you know, Yaka pearlile i Utah. It's all these guys,
37:49
Speaker 1: young dudes, but they give such great energy. They play
37:53
Speaker 1: up and down, they run you out, They have a
37:55
Speaker 1: really good formula, they have versatility in lineups. The Raptors
37:59
Speaker 1: I think are great bet to put in for the
38:01
Speaker 1: Eastern Conference championship, just because if you look at how
38:04
Speaker 1: bad Cleveland has and if you get to the point
38:06
Speaker 1: where you're just like, there's no coming back from this,
38:08
Speaker 1: and I think that they're there, then you start looking
38:10
Speaker 1: at the field if you're gonna pick a team out
38:13
Speaker 1: of that, and you're not just gonna gonna fade the
38:14
Speaker 1: Calves with the field, which is what I think is
38:16
Speaker 1: I wrote about that a few weeks ago on Action Network.
38:19
Speaker 1: That's a great play, But for me, it's Toronto and
38:22
Speaker 1: I think Washington and the two value bets that I
38:25
Speaker 1: think you can get good money on with their capacity
38:28
Speaker 1: to have a better playoff performance than we've seen. You
38:30
Speaker 1: had a great note in one of your columns, uh
38:34
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago about Barbara Rosen is having such
38:38
Speaker 1: a great year because of some of the help he's
38:42
Speaker 1: getting on picking rolls from guys like Fred VanVleet. Um.
38:46
Speaker 1: I thought that was such a nuanced and smart observation
38:49
Speaker 1: to explain what you were talking about there. Yeah, Selely,
38:52
Speaker 1: in clubs situations, it's pretty great. What they do is
38:54
Speaker 1: they run out three guard lineoups with Lowry, van Vleet
38:57
Speaker 1: and Derosen with de Rosen at the three. And what
38:59
Speaker 1: you're able to do then is you know, teams are
39:02
Speaker 1: scheming for that abaka pick and roll or if they're
39:04
Speaker 1: playing valanciun is the valencion is pick and roll or
39:07
Speaker 1: sam or whoever. They're all schemed up for the big
39:09
Speaker 1: so they can switch it or do whatever. But if
39:11
Speaker 1: you run them off of a guard guards, point guards
39:14
Speaker 1: are more likely to make tactical mistakes and calling out
39:17
Speaker 1: switches than bigs are because they have to do it
39:19
Speaker 1: over and over and over again. Wings and wings and
39:22
Speaker 1: bigs are the ones that are always calling out switches
39:25
Speaker 1: and coverages on picks, and so guards aren't used to it.
39:28
Speaker 1: So when you use that guy as a screener and
39:29
Speaker 1: you got Jamar de Rosen coming off the edge, you
39:31
Speaker 1: want to make sure to get the ball out of
39:33
Speaker 1: Rosen's hands. So a lot of times the defender is
39:36
Speaker 1: coming off and attacking De Rosen. And if even if
39:38
Speaker 1: they're switching, that guy is usually a big who's worried
39:41
Speaker 1: about the back cut, so he's backing off a van Bleet,
39:43
Speaker 1: which means van Bleets got the spacing and they stay home.
39:47
Speaker 1: Then De Rosen's got one on one and it's barbecue
39:50
Speaker 1: chicken time. It's a really great kind of tactical adjustment
39:52
Speaker 1: that they're able to make in terms of we see
39:54
Speaker 1: this a lot. The Warriors started this, where if you're
39:56
Speaker 1: able to use your guards effectively as screeners, you can
39:59
Speaker 1: cause absolute mayhem. And I think doing that in clutch
40:02
Speaker 1: time situations because everyone's so used to Okay, Damar is
40:05
Speaker 1: gonna isolate and he's gonna take a mid range jumper,
40:07
Speaker 1: but he's not doing that this year. He's operating as
40:09
Speaker 1: a playmaker. He's operating as as a three point shooter.
40:12
Speaker 1: He's a lot more versatile and dynamic and how he's playing,
40:15
Speaker 1: which is why I legitimately think that Demarta Rosen belongs.
40:19
Speaker 1: He's not the leader that's pretty set at this point,
40:21
Speaker 1: James Harden, but Demarta Rosen is a hundred percent. In
40:24
Speaker 1: the m v P conversation, Well, there's such an interesting team.
40:27
Speaker 1: You mentioned their bench but which nobody knows, but um,
40:31
Speaker 1: they're an interesting team because Demarta Rosen like he's committed
40:35
Speaker 1: to that franchise in that city in a way you
40:37
Speaker 1: would not expect someone to commit when they've struggled in
40:40
Speaker 1: the playoffs and he's from l A and had the
40:43
Speaker 1: opportunity to sign anywhere as one of the you know,
40:46
Speaker 1: probably top ten players you know year after year in
40:50
Speaker 1: the NBA. What do you think makes that that team click?
40:54
Speaker 1: Why did they bond so? Well, they're a really interesting
40:58
Speaker 1: case of um, lay a foundation. You make a few
41:02
Speaker 1: gambles and you hope it works out, but you gotta
41:05
Speaker 1: lay that foundation. If you make the gambles and they
41:07
Speaker 1: worked out. But you don't leave that foundation, it's gonna
41:09
Speaker 1: fall apart. And if you don't get lucky, it doesn't
41:12
Speaker 1: matter the foundation you lay, it's going to go to pieces. Um.
41:15
Speaker 1: What was crazy about that team was when they were bad.
41:18
Speaker 1: And I actually talked to Damar when they were bad
41:21
Speaker 1: back and I think two thousands, like eleven um was
41:23
Speaker 1: when I talked to him, and Damar is twelve twelve. DeMar,
41:28
Speaker 1: you know, loved Toronto like he had embraced being the guy.
41:33
Speaker 1: He took that responsibility more seriously than some other guys do.
41:37
Speaker 1: Some other guys are like, I'm a great player, I
41:39
Speaker 1: deserve the money. Yeah, I'm the best player. But it
41:41
Speaker 1: wasn't about I'm the player for this city. It's I'm
41:44
Speaker 1: the best player on this team. It's about that guy.
41:46
Speaker 1: And that's okay. Guys have different approaches to their careers.
41:49
Speaker 1: But Damar wanted to be a franchise icon. That was
41:51
Speaker 1: evident very early on, and you heard that. And he
41:54
Speaker 1: formed really strong bonds with teammates, so much so that
41:56
Speaker 1: guys like Ed Davis that got traded in Memphis never
42:00
Speaker 1: got over it because they were too emotionally invested in
42:03
Speaker 1: what that young core was doing. That was what was
42:05
Speaker 1: really crazy is like Davis would would have been happier
42:08
Speaker 1: in Toronto, which was a garbage team at the time,
42:10
Speaker 1: than in Memphis where they were a playoff squad, and
42:13
Speaker 1: they wanted to look to him as to be kind
42:14
Speaker 1: of the successor to zeebo Um. That's how close that
42:17
Speaker 1: that that locker room dynamic was, and that stuff matters.
42:21
Speaker 1: Lowry goes there and de Rosen finds a guy who's
42:25
Speaker 1: just as talented and they just click. And what's crazy
42:28
Speaker 1: is like Lowry's reputation has always been like he's a
42:31
Speaker 1: hot head and he's difficult to work with and he's
42:33
Speaker 1: a prickly personality. Now that's cooled over the years as
42:36
Speaker 1: he's gotten older and had kids, But in the beginning
42:39
Speaker 1: it was like really rough. But he and Derosen clicked
42:42
Speaker 1: right away and being able to rely on one another.
42:45
Speaker 1: I think it helps that they were both kind of
42:47
Speaker 1: the same level of player, where it was like, really
42:49
Speaker 1: good could be the best player on a bad team,
42:51
Speaker 1: but we don't know how if they could be the
42:53
Speaker 1: best player on a good team, and you put them
42:55
Speaker 1: together and then playing at the same level, I think
42:57
Speaker 1: really put them in a position to succeed um And
43:00
Speaker 1: that's why it's really remarkable. It's a cool story that
43:03
Speaker 1: doesn't get enough credit that De ros and you know,
43:07
Speaker 1: all of this we talked about inside Jerry and Kyle
43:08
Speaker 1: Lowry and what they've done. And in Dwayne case, he's underrated.
43:11
Speaker 1: But you know De Rosa not just for his on
43:13
Speaker 1: court stuff, but for the way that he took over
43:16
Speaker 1: his role and embraced that. From a cultural perspective, I
43:19
Speaker 1: think that needs to be talked about more as a
43:21
Speaker 1: real as a really great thing that he's done. Why
43:24
Speaker 1: do you say Washington as one of the better values.
43:28
Speaker 1: They are such a better playoff team. So there are
43:31
Speaker 1: two I always look at when I'm evaluating the regular
43:33
Speaker 1: season at this point in my tenth year, I am
43:37
Speaker 1: looking for two things. What's your win loss profile? Because
43:40
Speaker 1: that determines whether or not you make the playoffs. Do
43:43
Speaker 1: you beat good teams? Do you beat bad teams? Do
43:45
Speaker 1: you do get a mix? Are you inconsistent? How do
43:47
Speaker 1: you do versus versus schedule wins? How do you do
43:50
Speaker 1: when you're injured? All of those type of things. But
43:52
Speaker 1: the other thing I look for is formula if you
43:54
Speaker 1: go into a playoff series, and you say, to beat
43:56
Speaker 1: this team regardless of matchups, we gotta do what we
43:59
Speaker 1: do well, which is where all coaches start. And if
44:02
Speaker 1: your formula is something that that I can look at
44:04
Speaker 1: and say that's sustainable, it can work in a playoff environment.
44:08
Speaker 1: It's they've got a solid foundation, it can be consistent.
44:11
Speaker 1: They're not subject to whim or or fortune. I can
44:14
Speaker 1: believe in this team. Washington's formula has always been really
44:18
Speaker 1: good because it's elite level talent that executes well together.
44:22
Speaker 1: They have a lot of problems right now there. They
44:25
Speaker 1: lost last night to the to the Sixers, but they
44:26
Speaker 1: were red hot before, but that was coming off of
44:29
Speaker 1: Wall's injury. And there's been so many comments. Uh, okay,
44:34
Speaker 1: I haven't heard anything from Washington. The word around the
44:37
Speaker 1: league is that things are pretty bad in the locker
44:39
Speaker 1: room between Beal and Wall. That could be exaggerated, that
44:42
Speaker 1: could be blown out of proportion. And that's what one
44:45
Speaker 1: person inside Washington did say. It was like, that's blown
44:47
Speaker 1: out of proportion. But they had at tension two years ago,
44:50
Speaker 1: and then they had a great season last year and
44:51
Speaker 1: it went away and now we're saying this again. So
44:54
Speaker 1: if they're they're like chemically combustible that messes with things,
44:57
Speaker 1: but have a little bit of tention help saw a
45:00
Speaker 1: lot of teams like those Lakers Kobe's teams. Not to
45:02
Speaker 1: compare the two, because obviously the Lakers Kobees dealing were
45:05
Speaker 1: a lot better, but that Kobe shack dynamic healthy tension,
45:08
Speaker 1: like the Warriors have a healthy tension with Draymond. There's
45:12
Speaker 1: got to be a little bit of that, I think
45:13
Speaker 1: for some teams to drive them. And Washington has always
45:16
Speaker 1: been better in the playoffs than they are on the
45:18
Speaker 1: regular season because they are better at finding mismatches and
45:21
Speaker 1: exploiting them and punishing teams and playing in an emotional
45:25
Speaker 1: environment then running out the Suns on a random Tuesday
45:28
Speaker 1: in February. They'd be a great team that they could
45:30
Speaker 1: figure out how to do both. But as it stands,
45:33
Speaker 1: Washington still in the fourth seed. They're probably gonna be
45:36
Speaker 1: a top six seed at worst. And I really like
45:38
Speaker 1: the value on what they can do in the playoffs
45:40
Speaker 1: when you look at the kind of teams that they're
45:41
Speaker 1: going to be facing, like Washington is one of those
45:44
Speaker 1: teams where can their coach handle the talent and compostibility?
45:50
Speaker 1: Is that a is that something that becomes sort of
45:53
Speaker 1: a fatal flaw for them. No, this is what I've
45:56
Speaker 1: always been kind driven crazy by this. There are a
45:59
Speaker 1: lot of coaches that you put in charge of the
46:01
Speaker 1: Thunder they don't make three Western Conference finals in five years.
46:05
Speaker 1: I will understand where this narrative comes from, because I'm like, look,
46:09
Speaker 1: did the Thunder win because of Russell Westbrook and Kevin
46:12
Speaker 1: Durant and not Scott Brooks. Sure absolutely, but a lot
46:16
Speaker 1: of of managing top level talent, to me, is harder
46:19
Speaker 1: than getting a bunch of guys that are try hards.
46:22
Speaker 1: They're just like role players getting into play together. Because
46:25
Speaker 1: those guys don't have egos. You have to manage. You're
46:27
Speaker 1: not juggling politics. And Scott Brooks was able to get
46:30
Speaker 1: that team to three Western Conferences in finals in five years,
46:34
Speaker 1: one finals appearance and the two years he missed Kevin
46:37
Speaker 1: Durant was out and Russell Westbrook was out. When he
46:40
Speaker 1: has been like when he has coached teams they make
46:43
Speaker 1: at least the second round that they did last year,
46:44
Speaker 1: they would have made the Western Conference Finals are the
46:46
Speaker 1: Eastern Conference finals last year. Had Kelly Olynnok not had
46:50
Speaker 1: literally his career best game. Um, Scott Brooks is is
46:53
Speaker 1: a really good coach. I don't think he's done a
46:55
Speaker 1: good job as good a job this year, but I
46:58
Speaker 1: think that he's a guy that what you want is
46:59
Speaker 1: you want a coach that could be like, look, okay,
47:01
Speaker 1: you have all this beef, you have all this nonsense,
47:04
Speaker 1: I don't care. Let's stay focused. Do you want to
47:06
Speaker 1: win this game or not? And the answer with competitors
47:08
Speaker 1: is always yes, Then let's stay focused on what we
47:10
Speaker 1: gotta do. Like he can't fix Beal and Wall. The
47:13
Speaker 1: idea of of guys being able to do that, I
47:15
Speaker 1: think is a myth. Like Phil Jackson managed it better
47:17
Speaker 1: than most, but his situation was blessed by kind of
47:20
Speaker 1: dynamics of Jordan where there was a clear hierarchy. I
47:22
Speaker 1: think Scott Brooks has done a fantastic job and what
47:24
Speaker 1: he's don in Washington, And again, he's a guy that
47:27
Speaker 1: I look at and say, like, I'll have worries about
47:29
Speaker 1: him in a playoff environment. Is he gonna do everything perfect? No?
47:31
Speaker 1: But I like the big picture. Well, I look at
47:33
Speaker 1: Scott Brooks. God, that is a great analysis. So, um,
47:39
Speaker 1: we need to spend two minutes on the Warriors, because
47:43
Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna get to every single team
47:45
Speaker 1: that I want to get to. You're gonna have to
47:46
Speaker 1: come back. Um maybe maybe next week. Uh is sort
47:49
Speaker 1: of an All Star version of this. But what is
47:53
Speaker 1: going on with the Warriors right now? Is this just
47:55
Speaker 1: a classic? This team is fried? As Steve who said
48:00
Speaker 1: before the All Star Breaker? Is there something more systemic
48:04
Speaker 1: going on here? So I'm always on the lookout for.
48:10
Speaker 1: Is the narrative? Um? Honest? So like with the Calves
48:15
Speaker 1: early on, I was one of the big jumpers off
48:17
Speaker 1: of the ship where I was like, this is a problem,
48:19
Speaker 1: and Everybody's like, yeah, they always do this, They'll be fine.
48:21
Speaker 1: I was like, they have never been this bad. Like
48:23
Speaker 1: this is a new team with new problems. This is
48:25
Speaker 1: a whole new deal. Um. With the Warriors, I can
48:30
Speaker 1: honestly say I saw them up close on Saturday in
48:33
Speaker 1: Denver talk to the players. Was in the scrumbs of
48:36
Speaker 1: the players and coaches, saw them on the floor, the
48:38
Speaker 1: body language, the whole thing, teams board, and the biggest
48:41
Speaker 1: thing is that for three years they lived to just
48:47
Speaker 1: kill everyone. They thrived on. The suns are down. We're
48:51
Speaker 1: putting Stephan clay back in the game, and we're running
48:53
Speaker 1: it up to forty. We're up forty on the thunder.
48:56
Speaker 1: We're gonna see if we can get the sixty. Like
48:58
Speaker 1: we're gonna laugh and talk and dance and everything. And
49:01
Speaker 1: they lived for that. The thrill is gone. It's no
49:05
Speaker 1: longer exciting to beat Denver, even though Denver has been
49:09
Speaker 1: has played them tough the last couple of years. It's
49:11
Speaker 1: no longer rewarding to beat down. Okay, See, that's not
49:15
Speaker 1: to say that, Okay, so he didn't play well last night.
49:17
Speaker 1: They did. And it's not to say that there aren't
49:19
Speaker 1: legit issues with the Warriors. Their bench is bad. For
49:21
Speaker 1: the first time I think we can say in the
49:23
Speaker 1: Steve Kerr run, the Warriors have a bad bench. David
49:26
Speaker 1: West and Andrea Goodala are too far past. They've they've
49:29
Speaker 1: gambled on Nick Young and JaVale mcgeek as well. It's
49:31
Speaker 1: kind of heat check. And the young guys are not
49:34
Speaker 1: as good as maybe they thought they were in Patrick
49:36
Speaker 1: McCaw and Jordan Bell is still inconsistent. So there are weaknesses,
49:39
Speaker 1: especially in a regular season matchup. But Draymond Green is
49:42
Speaker 1: just simply not there. That's why he's picking up tex
49:44
Speaker 1: and getting injected. Like he literally said, like he said,
49:48
Speaker 1: F this game without the F he said, I this
49:51
Speaker 1: game during after a bad call they didn't like in Denver.
49:55
Speaker 1: That's where he's been at. His head is just somewhere.
49:58
Speaker 1: They are just trying to get to the All Star Break.
50:00
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be much of a rest for them,
50:01
Speaker 1: but a couple of days after go get the mental break,
50:04
Speaker 1: get somebody rest, and then come back and finish it out.
50:06
Speaker 1: They'll get some more rest days as the season goes on.
50:08
Speaker 1: I have zero worries about the Warriors making the finals. Um.
50:13
Speaker 1: I think right now though, it's a great opportunity for teams.
50:15
Speaker 1: I mean, we see this all year. They haven't been
50:17
Speaker 1: great against the spread they had, They started off really badly,
50:20
Speaker 1: they came back up. They're starting to fade again. We
50:22
Speaker 1: saw again last night with the double digit spread, but
50:24
Speaker 1: they they obviously not only didn't cover, but lost badly.
50:29
Speaker 1: Whenever they're big favorites, I think you can fade them
50:31
Speaker 1: accurately at this point, just because their level of caring
50:34
Speaker 1: about winning those games is so low. God, that is
50:38
Speaker 1: a great note bookmakers are not recognizing that because the
50:42
Speaker 1: general public is always going to be betting the Warriors
50:45
Speaker 1: no matter what the numbers. So that that's something a
50:48
Speaker 1: wash floor right there. That more bringing it, bringing a
50:53
Speaker 1: level analysis to the buffet and the Action Network. That's
50:59
Speaker 1: what I do. Y nice job, buddy, thanks for coming
51:02
Speaker 1: on the podcast. Thanks for man. The amount of work
51:06
Speaker 1: you are doing and where you are producing is insane.
51:10
Speaker 1: People need to go to the Action Network. Uh, they
51:12
Speaker 1: need to sign up for the newsletter. They need to
51:13
Speaker 1: go to Action network dot com to get your stuff.
51:16
Speaker 1: They need to follow you at had Hardwood Paroxism. They
51:19
Speaker 1: need to follow you at Matt Moore. Uh it's t
51:21
Speaker 1: a n right at Matt More t a n uh
51:26
Speaker 1: where they can read all your stuff because you'll tweet
51:27
Speaker 1: up the links as well. I as well. Action Network
51:30
Speaker 1: h Q, keep it up sooner read than later. Thanks
51:36
Speaker 1: Faculator