Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Mike Castle of Stone X | Report Day Whiplash In The Grain Markets

Transcript

AG Squawk with Mike Castle of Stone X | Report Day Whiplash In The Grain Markets · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: The June data drop is in the rear view mirror.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Today we'll look at how the markets reacted, and boy, howdy, did they ever.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: Actually, the initial enthusiasm in corn and soybeans waned as the afternoon went on.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Still, I've got the perfect guest today to help us dig in to some key report details.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Squawk.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the show, everybody.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Your pal, Davis Michelson, the handsome newsman here for Ag Squawk.
• 0:49
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• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be here weekday afternoons.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: And you can also catch us on Apple and Spotify right from the jump.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: I gotta send out an Ag Squawk shout-out.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Ag Squawk, if you will.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: Come on.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Scotty Possible, it was great chatting with you earlier today.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: And that is this afternoon's Ag Squawk Squawk.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Come on.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: The markets were all over the place today.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: The much anticipated reports, the June reports, we spoke with Brian Grady yesterday, and he talked about these reports being highly influential and an indicator as to how price action might go for the rest of the summer or at least the short term here.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: There are some things that could get in the way of that direction.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna find out from uh Mike Castle from Stone X right now.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Actually, let me bring him in.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Castle from Stone X.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: So glad to have you here.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for taking time with us.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's report day, buddy.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: Are you are you excited?
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, absolutely.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: Always got to be jacked up on June 30th.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Excellent.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Excellent.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I know you brought the good stuff.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: You've got some graphics for us.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: You've you're bringing the knowledge, which is a good thing.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: I was watching the markets sort of from a market perspective today, and we'll we'll start there and then kind of fold our conversation toward the reports and the impacts that they had on that market action.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: But first, you and I you and I haven't spoken before, and I would I would love for our audience and and for myself to know a little bit more about you.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Castle, who are you?
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: What do you got going on, buddy?
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I am senior commodities economist at Stonex on our market intelligence team.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: You know, kind of sounds fancy, right?
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: Market intelligence, but for you know regulatory reasons, it's effectively a research group, but we can't call ourselves that.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: So we get a fancier name.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: But I, you know, grew up on a small family farm in the middle of Missouri, started my career as a merchandiser, trading cash to grain, kind of all over the U.S., you know, at elevators for a while with schooler, cross-country trading here in KC with Redwood, been with Stone X now coming up on five years, kind of you know, was always a math guy, an econ guy, kind of focused on that at school.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: And they always said the best analysts had actual you know trading experience.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: So started there and then kind of came full circle on the you know, more numbers analytical side of things here uh at Stonex, which is really kind of where my interest lies more.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Did you say how long you've been with Stone X?
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: How long have you been there?
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: It'll be five years here this fall.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: All right, all right.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: And you stayed in the great state of Missouri, right here in in uh Kansas City, my beloved city, city of the Royals, the Royale city, you might say.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: There we go.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Mike, let me just begin the conversation with this little nugget.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if this is true or not, but it has been said the act of hitting something until it works is called percussive maintenance.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: After yesterday and the last few trading days, actually, we've seen fund money move away from the commodities.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Could today's rallies, in some respect, be chalked up to percussive maintenance in the grains, kick it till it till it works.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: We did see it's interesting you bring that up because we did see estimates of pretty aggressive fund buying, specifically on the corn side here today.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: Our broker has estimated that at 45,000 contracts getting bought back.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: So kind of eating into that net short that they've built up here over these last few weeks.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: And I think, you know, maybe to some extent, the expectations coming into today obviously were very bearish, right?
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: Monday's price action, extremely ugly sell-off to start the week without any real fresh news.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty much just folks kind of positioning ahead of this.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: So I do think that initial pop you kind of alluded to this big jump initially, and then that excitement kind of wearing off through the day, could be a reflection of that to some extent, seeing that you know, much lower than expected stocks number, seeing those algos smashing by, maybe covering in some of those shorts initially before, again, we kind of you know slowed down throughout the day, I guess you could say, lost some steam, but still again, nice to close in the green.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: And according to my sources, and correct me if if this is incorrect here, but that that money moving away from commodities, it just flat came out, right?
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: It didn't roll into another contract off of the July.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: And then did that leave that money kind of sitting in the in the sidelines, waiting for something to happen, waiting for opportunity?
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think a lot of it has popped back into the stock market.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think this kind of, I guess what are we coming up on three, four months now?
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: It's been kind of this all spring and summer to this point, this rapid money flow back and forth between the commodities and equities in response to geopolitical headlines.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: And we've lost that, you know, to a good extent here.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, funds kind of blew out of this length that they had built up.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: And again, you know, actually built up a net short on the corn side of things, specifically here over the last few weeks.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: And part of that, you know, obviously is in response to, you know, the headlines of peace that we keep getting and getting through a quarterly earnings season.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, maybe we're feeling a little more comfortable getting back into the equities.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think it's, you know, kind of worth losing sight of that price action or that money flow rotation that we've seen in the last few months, because it can certainly happen again, right?
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: It's not like they're just gonna take their ball and go home.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: It's still a market they're gonna keep an eye on, especially in this broader context of a resurgent inflation story that's not gonna go away, even with crude, you know, coming down here for a while.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's you know, kind of a more difficult thing, right?
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: Inflation is not something that just shows up quickly and goes away.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_01: Folks have made the mistake of calling it transitory before.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: Uh devastating effects.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: So it's worth keeping that in mind, right?
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: There are still some things coming down the road that could see that interest return, you know, especially if we have the fundamentals to go along with it.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Well, now let me let me just sideswipe us here just a little bit down a rabbit trail because I remember when when Russia initially attacked Ukraine, it was big news, big market response.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: And then after, I don't know, I'm just gonna ballpark it a year and a half, maybe two years later, the market just really didn't respond to headlines, uh, tragic as some of them were.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now, we haven't been at this Iran conflict nearly as long as as that.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: However, at some point, does the market become we call it we call it news fatigue in in the news biz?
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: At some point, does the crude oil market become sort of apathetic to headlines out of Iran?
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: I was talking yesterday to a guest, you know, it just seems to be the same cycle peace, then not peace, then talks, then talks of talks, then not peace, and it just keeps cycling away here.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: At some point, does the market become immune to that, become numb to it?
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: Or because so much is that stake through that straight of whore moose, does it stay fresh in the market?
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think you've certainly seen the market become very numb to the headlines.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: You know, you'll get some if if you get the exciting ones, like when we got, oh, our MOU has been signed, whatever, you see the price reaction.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, I mean, you're hitting the nail on the head.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: I do think the market has become very fatigued to these headlines.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: So you're not seeing as rapid of money flow, I guess I would say.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: And I think for now, it does appear that you know, managed money is kind of more comfortable shifting back into the equities until we see something, I guess, more major when it comes to escalations.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: And it really seems like the powers that be kind of continue to try and shift these headlines to happen when markets are closed for that reason.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: You know, obviously, this weekend is a prime example of that.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: So overall, it's something that I think the market really wants to move past.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_01: I think they've proven time and again they want to believe the peace headlines more than they like to believe the alternative.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: But again, you kind of mention it being so important you can't really ignore it.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_01: That is kind of the case to some extent.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: And that's not to say we're not seeing flows out of there, right?
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: We are still actually seeing stuff move through this trade.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_01: We've got alternate routes now in some cases, depending on the product that you're talking about.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, it's something you still can't lose sight of because the long-term implications are still there.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, a lot of the front end has kind of been softened up by this massive drawdown in the US SPR.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: If you're talking about crude oil, for example, or really soft demand coming out of China.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, that's kind of more of a kick the can down the road, band-aid kind of fix than it is a longer-term one.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: So it's something that's still certainly in the back of everyone's minds.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_01: But again, they seem more than happy to kind of put it in the back of it for now.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, very good.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thanks for going down that rabbit trail with me there.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: I appreciate it.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get into the grains.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: Corn futures poked fractionally higher right out of the gate this morning, but quickly retreated into negative territory.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: Just ahead of the reports, corn futures were two to three cents lower.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: Immediately following the report, corn sprang five to six cents into positive territory.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get to the closes from plus five hundred.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: We use plus five hundred T4 software, by the way, every single day for real-time quotes and more.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: Plus five hundred, that's plus five hundred.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: As I was saying, by the end of the day, September corn gained six and a half cents, four sixteen and three quarters.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Deese corn also up six and a half to four thirty-six and one half.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Mike USDA pegged corn planted area at 95.3, we'll call it 95.3 million acres.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: That was above the average pre-report trade estimate slightly.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: Grain stocks data showing June 1 corn stocks at uh 5.29 billion bushels.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: That was below the average trade guess of 5.408 billion bushels.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: Take us to the acreage report.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: Let's let's begin there with corn, Mike.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so again, you kind of mentioned holding steady at 95.3.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_01: The expectation from the market was to see about a 350,000 acre drop from the March report to get back down just a hair below 95.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_01: Didn't get that, obviously, which was a bit of a surprise.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_01: And you kind of see in this map here, there were a lot of changes at the state level that all kind of evened out to hold roughly steady at that 95.3 number.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: It is interesting to note, you know, that your biggest state gaining corn acres was Arkansas.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_01: That feels kind of out of nowhere.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you know, Nebraska, Illinois, that's kind of what you would expect, right?
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_01: You had a pretty solid, you know, planting season.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: Certainly, some areas that was not the case.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: But in general, a lot of areas got an early start and got going.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, that obviously typically you know results in bigger corn acres.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, you know, you did lose ground in some areas.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: I thought maybe we would see the bigger impact, whether it was from the input expense side of things, from weather in some areas, or just you know, that shift in the soy corn ratio, kind of favoring soybeans more heavily, which you know did pick up some bean acres, which you know we'll touch on here in a second.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: But that initial headline, if you had just said we don't see corn acres drop at all today, I think certainly would have been taken as bearish.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: But again, you get that stocks number coming in much lower than expected.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that kind of helps give us that pop, provide that bullish you know, tint to today's numbers.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and and this, too, from the uh percussive maintenance file on Twitter at Gman in Gville, tweeted out, he X'd out.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: I don't I don't even know how to say it.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: He he twittered December corn on the month down 38 and three-quarter cents.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: That that feels like percussive maintenance right there, Mike.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's uh you make it cheap enough and demand really starts to shoot up.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um and you know, it we did have record implied quarterly demand for both corn and soybeans for March through May, as you can see, you know, from to June 1 stocks numbers there.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: And that's you know, obviously, again, a positive.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: And the demand side of the equation has been very positive for corn and soybeans here.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: Corn really more export-driven, obviously, still strong on the ethanol side of things, but not as big of a story in terms of biofuels as you're seeing on the soybean side.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_01: But again, you're seeing record core exports by far.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: We are competitive on the global market.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: You know, obviously, Mexico is the biggest driver of that demand, record demand their direction, but it's not just there.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: We're actually competitive in a lot of markets.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, that's something certainly worth keeping an eye on as we talk about big picture stuff like US, you know, trade deals with China.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: Corn could certainly be in play.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: When you look at soybeans, we're still very expensive relative to South America.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: But when it comes to the corn side, we really are pretty competitive, you know, on a deliver China basis or you know, mostly wherever it is you're looking.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, one other, I guess, kind of highlight of that, you know, you see this big heat wave that's moving through Europe over the last couple of weeks.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_01: And you look at someone like France, who's the top EU corn producer, they're looking at some pretty serious, you know, potential yield losses if this pattern continues.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_01: And looking at the spread between Matif and Chicago corn yesterday, for example, closed at its highest.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: And I I don't remember how long I should have written that down, but that spread really blew out, which again just kind of points to how cheap the U.S.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_01: is on the global market.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: And ultimately, that does lead to really strong U.S.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_01: corn exports and you know that big demand number that you're seeing there.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: I like the words big and demand in the same sentence, Mike.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: That makes me that makes me happy.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: Let's move on to soybeans.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean futures were a nickel lower directly following this morning's open futures, continued to trend lower just ahead of the reports.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: Following the reports, soybeans jumped to double digits higher.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: All told Novi beans firmed four and a half cents to eleven forty-three and a half, jan beans up four and a half to eleven fifty-eight.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: And by the way, add G-Man in Gville has Novi beans down 46.5 on the month.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now, as far as the acreage report goes, Mike USDA estimated soybean planted area 85.365 million acres, almost exactly in line with expectations.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: June 1 stocks, 1.06 billion bushels, slightly above the trade forecast, but up 5% from year earlier.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: It was a pretty good run in beans there for a little bit.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: It was exciting right around lunchtime.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: Did they kind of get caught up in the enthusiasm their post-report, Mike?
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, uh, you know, everyone I think is kind of forgetting what it looks like to see some green on the screen there.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: So um, certainly some enthusiasm to be had.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: But it was interesting to note, you know, obviously, overall the U.S.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: picked up 665,000 acres of beans from the March report here, spread out fairly evenly.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: Kansas had the biggest chunk.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: That was interesting to see, which I do think is kind of largely a function of the improved weather, you know, kind of in the later planting kind of windows out there, obviously May, June, kind of picking up some rains finally after being extremely dry through the spring.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: You know, maybe some of that losing some winter wheat acres, right?
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty massive abandonment there, which I'm sure we'll touch on.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, I mean, again, we mentioned the record demand for the quarter on the current side of things.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: Same story for soybeans.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, kind of tying into two things we mentioned there, which one, the biofuel story, obviously massive crush demand.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: We've continued to see record crush of soybeans in the U.S.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: This marketing year will be our first in history where the number one demand category for soybean oil in the US is biofuel, which is really kind of a shift in the industry, right?
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: To where we're not as reliant on exports as we used to be.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: Crush is now over 60% of our total soybean use in the US.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: So it makes the exports less important, but that doesn't mean that, you know, leftover, that additional demand still doesn't have an influence.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: And everyone is still certainly kind of keeping an eye on business with China.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: We've only seen one confirmed sale in a flash sale from our sources in China.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_01: That's the only one they've confirmed to us as well.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: Although there is rumor of, you know, potential buying, we do know for certain they are actually looking right.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: They've been looking for offers for a while now.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not to say business can't get done, but again, you got to kind of zoom back out to the global scale and just think about how much more expensive we are than our South American competitors.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: You're talking about, I think, five straight years of record South American soybean production, expectations of another in 26-27.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_01: So you do lose out on that, right?
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: But if you did see China actually commit to anywhere close to the volume that is being reported, that 25 million tons, that's 919 million bushels in US units.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know that we would physically have the additional supply to meet that demand without having to raise prices enough to ration off exports elsewhere and still kind of end up somewhere near USDA's current target.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: But with that said, you still kind of have to respect the possibility.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: I'm very skeptical that we'll get anywhere near that volume simply because the numbers tell you we shouldn't, right?
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't make sense on paper.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: China's got a glut of beans.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_01: They really have more room for the corn.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, again, still looking at a bigger crop than initially expected, at least from the acreage front.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: And now, obviously, a lot of weather still in front of us, right?
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: Here we sit, it's only June 30th, and we've not even entered the most important, you know, growing months of the season that you're you know, July and August here.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: So still a lot to be said, but again, overall, just you know, kind of a first nice day like this in the grains for a while.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_01: Certainly a shot in the arm for we'll take it.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, exactly.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and looking at looking at your map there, Guillermo, can you bring the map back up really quick on soybeans?
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: Is Arkansas up on bean acres as well?
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: What do they got going in Arkansas this year?
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's awesome.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna send a shout out to Arkansas.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: Well done, Arkansas.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's move on to wheat then.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: As was the case yesterday.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_00: Casey and Minneapolis wheat futures start of the day with mild strength while Chicago wheat softened.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: Private exporters reported the sale of a hundred thousand metric tons of hard-red spring wheat for delivery to Nigeria in the 26-27 marketing year.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: Third verse, same as the first, following the reports.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_00: Winter wheat futures hit the gas ahead of lunch and firmed sharply.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: September Chicago wheat on the day up seven and three quarters to five eighty-seven and a half.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: KC wheat firmed eight cents, six twenty-two and three-quarters.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: In September Minneapolis wheat, it wasn't quite closed when I was drawing these up.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: Let's see what we've got going here.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: Let me just scroll up a little bit.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: September, okay.
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yep, up five and three quarters at 606 and a half.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: Not a bad day in the wheats there.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_00: How much did that 100,000 metric ton sale have to do with any of this at all?
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure that the one flash sale had, you know, a whole lot of influence, but we did get kind of a one-to-punch in today's reports from stats can this morning, wheat acres coming in, you know, in Canada, about a million below expectations.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: And then obviously USDA cut a U.S.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_01: wheat acres as well.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: I did see a stat.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: This is our smallest projected wheat harvested acres in America since 1877, which is pretty wild, right?
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously, if you talk to anyone who is growing wheat in the U.S.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_01: at this point, they could kind of make it pretty clear why that is.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty ugly margins, right?
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_01: Especially with the input costs that we've seen this growing season.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_01: And you're looking at winter wheat abandonment after the drops on today's report of 32.8%, all wheat abandonments at 25%.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: Both of those are pretty high.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, that map kind of showed where you saw these losses.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_01: Again, a lot of that kind of focusing on the plains, which again makes sense given what we saw in terms of growing weather this spring.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's kind of this situation where things were super dry, had a really ugly crop, matured well ahead of schedule, and then all the rain showed up right when it was time to harvest.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: So it's been a challenging year for the folks on the plains, you know, and as we kind of, you know, don't want to jump ahead too far, but it's not long from right now that we'll be talking about planting next season's winter wheat.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: So that's something worth keeping an eye on.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: The market kind of does need to, at some point, you know, buy some acres, or you're gonna see this continued drop in U.S.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_01: wheat acreage, like we've seen over the last few years, because it really just doesn't pencil.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: I to tie this into the fertilizer story where we have seen significant corrections.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: But looking at you know that price relative to grains, wheat is really where it's the ugliest of our major grains.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: So there's certainly work to be done between now and fall to actually incentivize folks to go out and plant this.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and when I think fertilizer and wheat, I'm I'm thinking about urea, and we have seen some pretty decent value.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: NOLA values are down on urea.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't seen uh much in the last couple of days here, but I don't know, still priced pretty high compared to what you can get back for that for putting that wheat seed in the ground.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's kind of the problem.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: Is you've seen the nice correction on the urea side, at least at the ports, not as much at the retail level yet.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_01: That'll kind of take some time.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: But we are at least getting into the time of the year where we'll see our summer fill offers and hopefully get some decent corrections.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_01: And we did actually get good news that should have an impact moving forward today with the announcement of potentially suspending our countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: That would be a huge win for the phosphate market.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: You know, is it going to have a huge impact today?
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: Not necessarily because of the time of year.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_01: It's already June 30th.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: This isn't going to have, you know, it's not like we can just flip a switch and magically get all this Moroccan phosphate here in the next few, you know, months ahead of the fall season, but it is a better longer-term move.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_01: This is something that should have been done a long time ago, in my opinion.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm very glad to see it actually happen.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's a material step that I do think will actually make a difference.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: And one that makes a lot of sense.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: Morocco needs a lot of ammonia.
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_01: We're fast tracking some new export-focused ammonia plants.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_01: We need the phosphate.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_01: That feels like a prime trade deal, in my opinion.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_01: But again, first step is getting rid of those countervailing duties, which is definitely a positive.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: And we have seen phosphate prices kind of hold lower than I would have expected based on global fundamentals.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_01: When you're talking about what production costs look like now after what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz, sulfur costs are through the roof, ammonia costs are through the roof.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_01: So the phosphate producer is being squeezed.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_01: That has led to reductions in production in Morocco in the last few months and elsewhere around the world.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: So I do think there's still some tightness out there to be reckoned with.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, this certainly does make the picture moving forward look more favorable than it was.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_01: But with all that said, with where prices are at today versus grains, you still need one side to do some serious work to make it actually look good to plant this fall.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: Our uh our very own Jim Wiesmeyer has some stuff on that on AgBold.com.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_00: Shameless plug for uh subscribers.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: Get to Agbold.com.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_00: He wrote all about this fertilizer stuff.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's very interesting, Mike, and I'm curious to see what it gets us.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_00: Unfortunately, it it won't be a quick fix, but you know, maybe it'll it'll be a fix for fall.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: Let's uh before we uh before we dig deeper, and I've got some broader questions to ask you, some more uh questions sort of based on the grain stocks report.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: But before we do that, let's let's run through the the cattle and the hogs real quick.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_00: Fed and feeder cattle futures were sharply lower at the open of the day session.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: Futures paired losses into the noon hour by the close.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_00: September feeders$3.40 lower at$3.62.35.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: October fat cattle down 77 cents to$236.60 onto the hogs.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_00: Hog futures sprang higher early this morning as the day session went on.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: Pressure on hogs snuck up through deferred contracts.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_00: The August Hogs managed to hold on, gained 87.5 cents, 98.15.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_00: October hogs added 42 and a half to close at 81.95.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_00: Any sore thumbs stick out to you in the livestocks in general, Mike?
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_01: It's been pretty quiet here so far this week.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: You know, obviously it is a holiday week coming up.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: Cash markets, you know, when you're talking about the cattle side of things, have been very quiet.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_01: I do think, you know, one thing that's kind of more interesting to see from the you know meat markets and just you know, cash cattle or cash hog markets is how kind of soft things have been seasonally.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_01: You would think, you know, typically we're in our hottest period of grilling demand of the season, right?
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_01: Kind of stretching from you know, Memorial Day, Father's Day through the fourth of July, typically when we see our kind of peak demand, right, for grilling season.
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_01: So typically you see a seasonal move higher, and that's just not really been the case this year.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: And whether you're looking at cash cattle that are off their highs, which again were record highs not long ago, so let's not lose sight of that.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_01: But at this point in the calendar, you would expect to be seeing some strength.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_01: That hasn't really been the case, especially you know, in the beef the box beef cutout markets, you've seen actually some downturns.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_01: You know, if you look at select cutouts, for example, it's been pretty soft here in the last month or so.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_01: You know, or if you just look at cash hogs or pork carcass cutouts, again, seasonally speaking, been pretty soft.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_01: When you look in the cash hog market, for example, again, this is right when you thought we'd be seeing a peak higher, especially with beef prices so high.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: You think, okay, what's the next consumer alternative?
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I'll grill some pork chops instead.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_01: And it hasn't really translated.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_01: So I actually think that's one market where you might be seeing some actual signs of consumer stress.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_01: With, again, we mentioned the inflation kind of here in the beginning, gasoline prices, yes, they've come down from their recent highs, but still quite elevated.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_01: Still a fair amount of you know, economic uncertainty out there, even though the data thus far has been more positive than expected, unless you're talking about consumer expectations or consumer sentiment.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that is one place where you're actually seeing some stress where you know you would have expected to see this seasonal spike, and it just hasn't been the case so far.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_00: I gotta be honest, I've cut back just a little bit on my stakes.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm an Iowa boy.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: I was born and raised in Iowa.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_00: I like a nice, big, thick, juicy pork chop like mama used to make.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_00: I gotta be honest.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_00: Sometimes I'm I'm reaching for those pork chops instead of the steak sometimes, but man, there's there's just no substitute for American beef.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_00: We could we could go on on this.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_00: Let's let's move on.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: I just kind of want to open this to you broadly.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: These reports we've been told set the tone for the summertime market action.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_00: I I guess I would just like to to open that up to you.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: If the if these June reports in concert set up the rest of the summer, especially for corn and soybeans, does that mean that we're locked into specific price patterns for here from here?
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_00: And if not, what what throws us out of out of that pattern?
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_01: You can certainly never say never, right?
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: Because I always am reminded, you know, you say you're in Iowa boy.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: If we go back to, I think it was August of 2020 when we got the big Derecho through there, where oh, in the forecast, this is great.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's we got storms coming through, we'll get all this rain, and it ends up wiping out a bunch of acres.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, it's always difficult to, you know, say we're locked into something because there's always the possibility of some unexpected black swan event happening out of left field.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_01: But I do think, you know, as we kind of move into the month of July, if you just look historically at how your, you know, just pick these corn of soybeans, for example, how your new crop pricing does in this time of year, it's typically not that great, right?
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_01: This is kind of historically, you hit your peak somewhere between May and June, kind of trend lower into fall.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_01: And that's not to say that that happens every year, but on average, that is kind of the typical behavior because the market is trying to, you know, price in the risk of what's coming.
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_01: And right now, I know there's been a lot of attention on the heat that's coming up here in the month of July.
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, we'll be pollinating.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_01: So it's worth keeping an eye on that.
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_01: It's not to say there are areas that won't be stressed, but just to, I guess, give an example from my own personal life here.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_01: And this was from the road.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: So don't, you know, count it as gospel.
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: But I had a friend of mine get married in Rochester, New York this past weekend.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: We road tripped out there, so I saw a fair amount of the Eastern Corn Belt.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_01: Again, from the highway, don't take that as gospel.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_01: But I would say a lot of those areas could use the heat that's coming, to be honest with you.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: It's extremely wet out there.
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_01: It's very reminiscent of 2015.
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_01: I actually lived in Indiana that summer.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_01: Was working in an elevator out there, and I'm not saying it's, you know, as bad as it was then in terms of flooding, but it's kind of this similar pattern, right?
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: Where, you know, we're kind of moving into a stronger El Nino.
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_01: You're getting, in general, cooler than normal temperatures across the Midwest.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: That's the expectation.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, some short-term push with this heat here in the near term, but a couple weeks of heat does not necessarily offset an otherwise very favorable growing season.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_01: And I think a lot of this stuff that's extremely wet right now could use those heat units.
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_01: They've been lacking them for a lot of the growing season thus far.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, we saw corn and soybean ratings both unexpectedly fall 1% on yesterday afternoon's crop progress report.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I really think that's a reflection of those numbers being kind of a beauty contest and things just in general being very uneven right now.
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_01: That doesn't mean the yield potential is not there.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_01: It means it just doesn't look that pretty right now.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_01: And with how saturated things are, with how uneven things are, I think you throw some heat units on that.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_01: That probably provides a pretty major boost.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_01: And again, you always have to take long-term forecasts with a major grain of salt.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_01: But what's coming is expected to be pretty showery and in general much cooler than normal over the next couple of months, which again is supportive of yields.
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we'll kind of see what this heat does, but after that, we're expected to cool right back off.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_01: I know, you know, maybe some backyard bias, but at least around us, my folks farm an hour and a half east of here in the middle of Missouri.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_01: Things around us look very good.
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think that is the case in a lot of parts of the Midwest, which isn't to minimize the areas that are having some problems.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, big picture, the weather does not really paint a whole lot of threats today.
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's talk about demand then.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_00: We've we've discussed demand and it's been pretty decent.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like to see us tighten up a little bit later down the road as we head into 26, 27.
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_00: Can you talk to us a little bit about usage?
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's again, it's been very, very hot, specifically both for corn and soybeans.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_01: Wheat, not as much.
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, that is kind of one other aspect is that wheat demand has been a little softer.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_01: And now as we look ahead into the next year, we are losing wheat production in a fair amount of areas of the world because of the fertilizer story.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: I know everyone was expecting some massive impact, some, you know, doom scenario because of this.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_01: And it wasn't really the reality.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_01: But you look at other producers who are major exporters, like Australia, for example.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, even Canada, you know, you're seeing lower wheat acres up there.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_01: You're seeing the same story in Australia, you're seeing the same story in a handful of major producers around the world who are a little more exposed to what happened in the nitrogen markets in the Middle East this spring.
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_01: So that does tighten things up to some extent moving forward.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_01: The thing that kind of offsets that is how big the Russian crop is right now.
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, if you run into quality problems there with how wet they've been, maybe you actually do shift some exports back to the US, which will kind of have to just be something that the cash markets reckon with.
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, demand is still very well supportive, supported.
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_01: Very strong corn exports.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think that goes away.
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_01: A bit weaker soybean exports, but again, we don't need them as much as we used to because we're using so much more domestically.
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_01: And there's no reason to see that going away.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: We got really supportive policy from the EPA, obviously, massive biofuel targets.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_01: So we should continue to see crush plants running very, very strong moving forward.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_01: That keeps support under the demand side of the equation there.
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: And then really the big wild card that everything comes back to is China.
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we have this potential meeting again between Trump and G coming up early fall.
• 33:30
  SPEAKER_01: That's something to certainly keep an eye on.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_01: But at some point, you kind of need more than just rumors.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_01: You'd like to see some actual confirmation in flash sales or whatever the case may be, something that shows that's actually taking place before the market can really get too excited about it.
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_00: Mike, you brought us a dandy chart.
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_00: If I can get Guillermo to pop that up for us really quick onto the screen, I'd I'd love to discuss what you're showing us there.
• 33:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_01: So this is just looking at the data from today's quarterly stocks report.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_01: So taking June 1 stocks, looking at that disappearance by quarter from the quarter previously.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_01: And you can see that corn usage for the March-May period being the record for that quarter by far, kind of taking out it is on a longer-term uptrend, but still again, taking out a lot of previous highs.
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_01: Same story on soybeans.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_01: And whether that's you know, the domestic market or the export market, one or the other, overall the story is very strong demand.
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_01: So, in that context, it makes the yield impacts that much bigger, right?
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_01: If you have really strong demand, you need the supply to meet it.
• 34:39
  SPEAKER_01: So if you did have some kind of weather risk late summer, again, you look at something like what happened in 2020 in Iowa.
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_01: If you had something like that happen again this year, you're talking about significantly larger demand than we saw previously, and it makes that supply impact much tighter.
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_01: But at the same time, it is worth noting at this point, supply is still fairly heavy.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_01: And the one spot where we don't see as strong of demand is on the wheat side of things, which is again a longer-term trend.
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_01: Just over decades at this point, you have seen wheat demand kind of fall out of favor.
• 35:12
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of that, you know, whether it's dietary trends or whatever it is, you have seen it shrink, but it is worth pointing out corn and soybean demand in the U.S.
• 35:20
  SPEAKER_01: remains red hot.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_01: That is certainly a supportive thing, you know, especially again, seeing prices low like this.
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_01: We go back to talking about trade with China.
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_01: We've seen some big flash sales to unknown destinations, which have kind of stirred up the rumor mill because everyone wants it to be China.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_01: But I think it's worth pointing out a fair amount of this extra demand that we've seen in these flash sales could very well just be other destinations trying to step in with that thought in their minds as well.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_01: If China's gonna buy, we already see prices dipping.
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_01: Let's step in and take advantage of that and kind of book some of our own needs as well.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_00: All right, Mike.
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_00: So let's let's put a lid on report day conversations.
• 36:01
  SPEAKER_00: I want to go back to to the idea that this day in history sets trends for the weeks and months to come.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_00: If what if I'm hearing you right, what we've put together today is that we've got good demand chances coming up, good usage, and uh the markets will get excited sometimes.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_00: They'll kind of look like they're gonna go down for a while, but then they'll shoot higher, and then they'll kind of lose their enthusiasm a little bit.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_00: That's about what I expected for summertime market action, anyway, buddy.
• 36:33
  unknown: No kidding.
• 36:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, more of the same, huh?
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think it's highly possible.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_00: We'll laugh, we'll cry, you know.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's the way she goes.
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_00: But I think today was uh was well, I mean, obviously, and it's and it's a great point for us to kind of to catch up and to orient ourselves just as we're uh heading into July, heading into the summer months.
• 36:57
  SPEAKER_00: And so, well, thank you for giving us some clear direction, some something to think about, absolutely.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, dare I say, something to look forward to if usage continues, if demand continues the way that it has been, I think we've got good things to look forward to.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_00: It's uh, as you know, it's hot in Kansas City.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_00: But we're coming right up on the first of July, bro.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_00: It just sort of feels like the first of July in in Kansas City where I'm at.
• 37:23
  SPEAKER_00: How about you?
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we've kind of missed it for a lot of the summer, and now we're just kind of paying our dues.
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, June was beautiful.
• 37:29
  SPEAKER_00: There were days when it was like 68 degrees in the afternoon, you know what I mean?
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_00: I know.
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_00: I really like it.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the National Weather Service says dangerous record-breaking heat will intensify across most of the central and eastern United States this week.
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_00: Heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_00: Severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the high central plains, that's the central high plains, into the upper midwest and across parts of the northeast.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_00: Critical fire weather conditions persist across portions of the four corners and great basin.
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Castle, how about before I let you go, some items of mild interest?
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_00: Are you in for some items of mild interest?
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_00: Sure.
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_00: This day in history, the United States Division of Forestry was recognized and established by an act of Congress in 1886.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_00: In 1953, the first Chevy Corvette rolled off the assembly line in Flinton, Michigan.
• 38:28
  SPEAKER_00: Are you a car guy?
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not much of a car guy.
• 38:30
  SPEAKER_00: Are you into cars and whatnot?
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_01: You know, not so much.
• 38:33
  SPEAKER_01: I've got mine, and that's that's about it.
• 38:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, me too.
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_00: Me too.
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_00: Well, okay, and good.
• 38:39
  SPEAKER_00: Here, just one more, and I wanted to ask you about this one.
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_00: 1894.
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_00: The Tower Bridge across the Thames in London was officially opened.
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_00: Now that leads me to a question with a with a name like Castle, you must have an opinion on whether or not King Arthur was a real guy, don't you?
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I can't say I do.
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I think maybe I'm doing my last name an injustice.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_01: How about Robin Hood?
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: Real guy?
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, we we probably want him to be, right?
• 39:10
  SPEAKER_00: I think we do.
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_00: I think we do.
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for that.
• 39:13
  SPEAKER_00: That will do nicely.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Castle from Stonex.
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_00: It's been great getting to know you.
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_00: And bro, you brought the goods on the reports.
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_00: You brought great graphics.
• 39:22
  SPEAKER_00: You you gave us a lot to think about and uh helped us ground ourselves in some uh some real, real stuff.
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_00: And I sure appreciate it.
• 39:29
  SPEAKER_00: Where do people find out more about you and about what you're doing at Stonex?
• 39:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you can follow us on YouTube at Stonex underscore official.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: I'm on X at Mike underscore Castle2 or Stonex.com.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_01: Check out all of our stuff.
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Castle from Stonex.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_00: And may I direct you to AgBull.com where you can dig deeper with Ag Bull Intel.
• 39:50
  SPEAKER_00: Take your marketing by the horns with Ag Bull.
• 39:52
  SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbull.com or call 855-737 Farm.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's 855-737 FARM for the details.
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching, everybody.
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_00: Tomorrow afternoon, uh, I'll chat with Iowa farmer Ted the Hammerhamer right here on AgSquawk for Jed Joe, Lindsay, and Guillermo.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's Davis Michelson saying thanks for being here.
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be back tomorrow with more Ag Squawk.