Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Week 5 NFL Picks With Chad “Middlemonster” Millman & Blackjack

Transcript

Week 5 NFL Picks With Chad “Middlemonster” Millman & Blackjack · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome the Favorite Podcast. I am Chad Milman of the
0:13
Speaker 1: Action Network. This is the Super Contest edition, which means
0:17
Speaker 1: I am going to welcome in my brother, my Action
0:21
Speaker 1: Network brother, in the gold Lemon maid jacket with no shirt. Yeah.
0:31
Speaker 1: I mean you said a week or two ago that
0:33
Speaker 1: I was barely wearing a shirt anymore. So I figured,
0:35
Speaker 1: what the hell, let's just get rid of it all together.
0:38
Speaker 1: What happens when you get on the Long Island Railroad
0:43
Speaker 1: in a jacket like that and no shirt? I mean
0:46
Speaker 1: public transit these days, Chad is very impersonal. Everyone's just
0:49
Speaker 1: got headphones in and eyes down, so really nothing. Nobody
0:53
Speaker 1: even notices you. Noah, it's kind of disappointing. I hope
0:55
Speaker 1: for some reaction, but it's tough to get one these days.
0:58
Speaker 1: I know you like a reaction. Um we I can't lie.
1:03
Speaker 1: I cannot lie. We'll get to business. We got to
1:06
Speaker 1: talk about our picks from last week. We went three
1:09
Speaker 1: and two. One of us, uh middled one of our picks,
1:14
Speaker 1: and um, we can talk about that. I'm a little
1:19
Speaker 1: it's very early on Thursday morning, as is our custom. Uh,
1:25
Speaker 1: you've brought in a cordial Do you wanna talk about
1:29
Speaker 1: what you've brought in today, I decided to bring in
1:31
Speaker 1: some patron Exo cafe. For those of you who may
1:34
Speaker 1: not be familiar, it is a coffee flavored liqueur made
1:38
Speaker 1: with Patron Silver tequila. And if you're wondering what it
1:41
Speaker 1: tastes like, it tastes exactly like what you would imagine
1:44
Speaker 1: tequila and coffee tastes like. UM. I would describe it
1:48
Speaker 1: favorably as Mexican rat poison. I'm not gonna allow to you. UM,
1:55
Speaker 1: I'm not comfortable with it. I've had some. It's as
1:58
Speaker 1: I said, it's early. M can't lie to you. I'm
2:03
Speaker 1: pretty hungover. Chad had two beers last I stayed out
2:08
Speaker 1: past nine. Um. And was it a bar with a friend?
2:16
Speaker 1: Was it a wine bar? We had some dinner, the
2:19
Speaker 1: bartender had a heavy, heavy, poor and before you knew it,
2:24
Speaker 1: I did not feel comfortable and it was a long
2:26
Speaker 1: night and so UM, I don't love the coffee liqueur.
2:32
Speaker 1: Our podcast today is fueled by Munchkin's crispy cream and
2:38
Speaker 1: coffee flavored patrone. YEP, that pretty much summarized it. And
2:41
Speaker 1: I'm looking at a guy in a cowboy hat, sunglasses,
2:45
Speaker 1: a gold lab maid jacket with no shirt and he's
2:48
Speaker 1: smoking a mango vape. And I'm thinking to myself, where
2:55
Speaker 1: did it go wrong for me? I think this is
2:57
Speaker 1: where we went right. This is living, baby, you think so,
3:00
Speaker 1: You're not just breathing today, You're not existing, you are
3:03
Speaker 1: living today. I mean that's true. You could like you
3:05
Speaker 1: to look at it is like I could be sitting
3:08
Speaker 1: in an office. I could be like in another corporate gig,
3:12
Speaker 1: behind a desk, trying to manage something. Somebody tweeted something.
3:16
Speaker 1: I've got to get mad at him for it, you know.
3:19
Speaker 1: Instead I do get to be doing this with a
3:22
Speaker 1: character like you, you know, trying to drink away my hangover. Um,
3:26
Speaker 1: it'll it'll work. And talking about betting. Do you want
3:30
Speaker 1: to talk about the middle that I did? You want
3:32
Speaker 1: to talk about how angry you got at me on
3:34
Speaker 1: Monday night? You got angry at tot it up people.
3:37
Speaker 1: Remember one of the one of the picks was that
3:39
Speaker 1: we had in the super contest was Denver plus five
3:42
Speaker 1: versus Kansas City. I bet Denver plus five and a
3:45
Speaker 1: half versus Kansas City when it opened a week ago
3:48
Speaker 1: before the game, and then as the game got closer,
3:52
Speaker 1: right before the game kicked off. I saw it was
3:55
Speaker 1: Kansas City minus three and a half. I'm like, wait
3:57
Speaker 1: a second, I've already got Denver plus five and a half,
4:00
Speaker 1: So this to me feels like a close game. It
4:03
Speaker 1: lands on four or five and I've gotten the middle off.
4:05
Speaker 1: I bet Kenta City three and a half right now.
4:07
Speaker 1: So I did it. So I did it. Yeah, this
4:09
Speaker 1: guy that's both sides of the game middling two points.
4:14
Speaker 1: He middled two points and he fucking cashed it. At
4:21
Speaker 1: that point when I was watching that game, I was
4:23
Speaker 1: doing a periscope at the end of the game. I
4:26
Speaker 1: was almost hoping that I would lose my bet just
4:29
Speaker 1: so you didn't win both, because I knew everyone knew.
4:33
Speaker 1: When I saw Scott in the office the next day,
4:35
Speaker 1: the first thing he said is that was the worst
4:37
Speaker 1: possible outcome that could have happened, because he's going to
4:40
Speaker 1: be so smug about it. Me, you smug. I specifically
4:46
Speaker 1: did not go into the side action slack channel it's
4:51
Speaker 1: been five minutes and five seconds and after the game,
4:54
Speaker 1: because I didn't want to be obnoxious. Um. I believe
4:58
Speaker 1: Scott Miller Um wrote at Chad Moment is a minus
5:04
Speaker 1: two hundred favorite to be asleep right now. If you
5:07
Speaker 1: don't watch your miracle cover doesn't even count. And then uh,
5:11
Speaker 1: and then the next morning I woke up and I
5:14
Speaker 1: wrote for the record, I was very much awake. I
5:18
Speaker 1: chose to stay out of the channel for fear of
5:20
Speaker 1: how much more obnoxious I could be. As I've noted
5:25
Speaker 1: in my Moment's Red Zone Diaries column, I can make
5:28
Speaker 1: things happen with my mind. Good fucking morning, how's the
5:33
Speaker 1: cherry pitter working out? Didn't go that route? And then
5:38
Speaker 1: you wrote you wrote back, shit, And then Scott Miller
5:43
Speaker 1: wrote back, who's one of our editors? The editor? This
5:46
Speaker 1: was the worst possible outcome, folks. So congratulations to you
5:52
Speaker 1: from middling two points? How many points? Like is enough
5:58
Speaker 1: to middle? Why is it bad to middle? Two point?
6:00
Speaker 1: And when four is a key number? You've got a
6:03
Speaker 1: huge road favorite, a team that I believed could win
6:07
Speaker 1: the game, because I thought that we were on the
6:10
Speaker 1: same page. Here we are, Honestly, I thought you believe
6:14
Speaker 1: Denver was going to win that game, black Jack. Here's
6:18
Speaker 1: what I believe. Because if you believe Denver is gonna
6:21
Speaker 1: win the game, this is no point middling it. This
6:24
Speaker 1: is the difference between you and me. This is the
6:26
Speaker 1: I'm a man of faith and you are a I
6:29
Speaker 1: am a man of stats. I am a rational being.
6:34
Speaker 1: I take your finger. I don't wear a great politician
6:38
Speaker 1: jackets I look at because you don't have the confidence
6:40
Speaker 1: to wear. It's not about confidence. I looked at the
6:42
Speaker 1: information in front of me, and I make the best percentage.
6:45
Speaker 1: So the best percentage play today was that black pull over.
6:48
Speaker 1: That was the best play today. Really, that was personal.
6:54
Speaker 1: You brought the gold lamb a up listen last week
6:56
Speaker 1: in the super Contest. For those who don't know our goal,
6:59
Speaker 1: here make five picks for the Las Vegas Westgates Super Contest.
7:03
Speaker 1: The goal is for us to win one point four
7:05
Speaker 1: million dollars. So every pick has massive steaks behind it.
7:11
Speaker 1: Last week we were three and two. The week before
7:14
Speaker 1: we were three and two and on a little bit
7:16
Speaker 1: of a role. I think we've gotten burned last week
7:19
Speaker 1: by the two teams we've met more than any the
7:21
Speaker 1: Colts and the Giants, and the Giants. We gotta walk
7:23
Speaker 1: away from really done with the Giants. So so like
7:28
Speaker 1: I've divorced myself from the Giants. Who are they playing
7:30
Speaker 1: this week? They are playing um, the Panthers. Yeah, hello, hello, No,
7:37
Speaker 1: we'll get there. No, no, we know better. Should we
7:40
Speaker 1: get this thing rolling? So we say hello to our
7:42
Speaker 1: friend Georgina Tottenham at Cardiff City Tottenham by Oh wait, sorry,
7:50
Speaker 1: that's my other PoCA so black Jack. What flavor vapy
7:54
Speaker 1: vaping today? Cramber today? Beautiful? Thank you for asking. Yeah,
8:02
Speaker 1: it has more of a coffee flavor, which actually is
8:04
Speaker 1: a nice accompaniment to the patron. Before we get started here, chat,
8:10
Speaker 1: I just want to talk for a second, because this
8:11
Speaker 1: podcast has been wildly successful. Um. We have millions and
8:16
Speaker 1: millions of listeners and it's just been a whirlwind. So
8:20
Speaker 1: it gave me an idea and I took it upon
8:23
Speaker 1: myself with the help of our producers here, to create
8:27
Speaker 1: kind of a spinoff. You know, the most popular thing
8:30
Speaker 1: in podcasting is these true crime podcasts, right, things like
8:34
Speaker 1: Cereal and Sword and not the Sword and the Stone
8:38
Speaker 1: that's a kid's thing. Sword and Scale Antonio, thank you. Um,
8:42
Speaker 1: these things are really popular. So I decided to make
8:44
Speaker 1: a spin off for everyone listening. This is the first
8:47
Speaker 1: time Chad's hearing this, so his reaction will be and
8:52
Speaker 1: it is. Uh. The working title is called The Silent Bell.
8:58
Speaker 1: Everyone in Pittsburgh is wondering what happened to a twenty
9:01
Speaker 1: five year old man. He was last seen in two
9:03
Speaker 1: thousand seventeen. He's six ft one, two thirty pounds and
9:08
Speaker 1: has a forty time at four point six seconds. Don't
9:11
Speaker 1: want to do I don't want to have a revocation.
9:13
Speaker 1: We happened last year, and I'm obviously I gotta do
9:15
Speaker 1: what I gotta do, and I don't take my standing
9:17
Speaker 1: for take myself. That Steelers running back Levian Bell. Some
9:22
Speaker 1: say he's the best running back in the league. The
9:25
Speaker 1: only thing is he's gone missing. See it's already Week
9:33
Speaker 1: five of the NFL season and he hasn't shown up
9:36
Speaker 1: for a single game. Levian Bell is the star running back.
9:40
Speaker 1: He is one of the premier players in this league.
9:42
Speaker 1: So Nate, where is he now? Bell has gone missing before.
9:48
Speaker 1: The last time was on January fourteenth, two thousand eighteen,
9:51
Speaker 1: in a Divisional round match up against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
9:55
Speaker 1: He's also managed to go missing literally every time the
9:59
Speaker 1: Steelers play the New England Patriots, but this time it
10:03
Speaker 1: feels different. There are a lot of theories on Bell's disappearance.
10:11
Speaker 1: I want that type of contract that type of long
10:14
Speaker 1: term security. Levian Bell himself, who thought he could get
10:17
Speaker 1: sixteen million dollars a year on the open market. See
10:20
Speaker 1: ben't get his money. I've seen me castro building away
10:23
Speaker 1: but get their money. But what about me? I have
10:26
Speaker 1: another theory. I think he's been kidnapped. Do I have evidence?
10:32
Speaker 1: Well not exactly, but people eat these true crime podcasts
10:37
Speaker 1: up like Jamis Winston needs crab legs, so I'll worry
10:39
Speaker 1: about evidence later. What's going on here? What are you
10:43
Speaker 1: doing Levy on? Bell's gone missing? He's coming back a
10:47
Speaker 1: week seven? You just announced that? Or is he? Because
10:52
Speaker 1: can you go? I have the room until twelve and
10:55
Speaker 1: turn the lights off? Please? Thank you. Join me week
11:01
Speaker 1: by week as I investigate this case. This is the
11:05
Speaker 1: Silent Bell, that's our serial spinoff. I am so impressed,
11:17
Speaker 1: honest to god, it's everything I want the Action Network
11:19
Speaker 1: to be. Well. I know that. That's why I did
11:22
Speaker 1: it on my own with these guys help without telling you.
11:26
Speaker 1: I am inspired. I am totally inspired. I don't even
11:29
Speaker 1: know what to say. I almost have tears in my eyes.
11:34
Speaker 1: And it's not the hangover or the coffee patron is
11:39
Speaker 1: really it's not even like the reflection from your jacket.
11:44
Speaker 1: It's only my pride and admiration for what you put together.
11:47
Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you. That's why I do what I do.
11:50
Speaker 1: You are a creative force. Yeah, I am. Remember that.
11:54
Speaker 1: The best part about that the was Matt Ford, our
11:56
Speaker 1: producer in the background, walking in and You're like, I
12:00
Speaker 1: have the room and that that line will live up
12:04
Speaker 1: there with I have a budget meeting. Well done, well done.
12:13
Speaker 1: I love being surprised like that. That is awesome. All right,
12:17
Speaker 1: we gotta get to business here because I do. I listen,
12:20
Speaker 1: let's just take the first five. I got a budget meeting.
12:23
Speaker 1: I gotta I do have a budget meut, I gotta go.
12:25
Speaker 1: We gotta wrap this up, which weans you've got to
12:27
Speaker 1: start this up. Georgina green Bay at Detroit Packers by one,
12:35
Speaker 1: No thanks week two. Yeah, I kind of agree with you.
12:38
Speaker 1: Rogers didn't look right, does he? Well, he doesn't look
12:43
Speaker 1: like because he's playing in one leg. Yeah, great observation.
12:47
Speaker 1: I mean, it's like bell it disappeared. I know, But
12:51
Speaker 1: don't you kind of expect that Aaron Rodgers can play
12:53
Speaker 1: on one leg at this point? Like, is there anything
12:55
Speaker 1: he can't do? I had a boss. He used to say, like, uh,
12:59
Speaker 1: let's not be the masters of the obvious modo? Right there,
13:03
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. He doesn't look right. No, but I expect
13:07
Speaker 1: him to be able to play on one leg. I mean,
13:10
Speaker 1: I don't think it's anything he can to has been, yeah,
13:12
Speaker 1: but just not very well. Yeah, that's why we're skipping
13:16
Speaker 1: the game. I don't even know why we're talking about it.
13:18
Speaker 1: It's the patron chad. It's gonna be interesting. Tennessee a
13:25
Speaker 1: Buffalo Titans by three and a half. Give me the
13:30
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. Yeah, come on, for once. I'm with you
13:36
Speaker 1: on your home dog theory. I hate the Tennessee Titans.
13:38
Speaker 1: I hate everything about him. Give me the Buffalo Bills.
13:43
Speaker 1: Tell me why other than other than emotion like this
13:46
Speaker 1: is our yng and yang here, I have reasons rational.
13:50
Speaker 1: I think the Bills defense is going to cause a
13:51
Speaker 1: lot of problems for Tennessee. I do. I think the
13:53
Speaker 1: Bills defense is underrated. I think people generally are looking
13:57
Speaker 1: at that team like it's an absolute train wreck. And listen,
14:00
Speaker 1: Josh Allen hasn't done a hell of a lot to
14:01
Speaker 1: impress me. But I guess he's been better than I
14:05
Speaker 1: thought no, No, I thought he was gonna be really
14:08
Speaker 1: really bad, really bad. Look at what Jeff does on Twitter.
14:12
Speaker 1: I thought he'd be like Nathan Peterman bad. Yeah, Okay,
14:15
Speaker 1: he's better than that. Um yeah, I think most of
14:19
Speaker 1: this play really, to me comes down to the Bills defense.
14:21
Speaker 1: I I like their defense. I'm still not sold on
14:24
Speaker 1: Tennessee's offense at all. The fact that Marcus Mariotto was
14:27
Speaker 1: the a f C Player of the Week last week
14:28
Speaker 1: maybe throw up in my mouth. It's like, what were
14:31
Speaker 1: they watching? There was nobody better, nobody. Did you see
14:34
Speaker 1: what Tom Brady did to the Dolphins that wasn't better?
14:38
Speaker 1: This is what's so interesting about when I listened to
14:40
Speaker 1: you talk about games. We're both on the Bills. I'm
14:44
Speaker 1: not on the Bills for any of the reasons. You
14:46
Speaker 1: just why are you on the Bills? Uh? I did
14:49
Speaker 1: watch that Titans game last week. It was a miracle.
14:52
Speaker 1: Yeah they think the Eagles like I was all over
14:54
Speaker 1: the Titans in that game. Uh. They every single thing
14:58
Speaker 1: that could go right for them went right for them.
15:01
Speaker 1: Multiple penalties on the Eagles on fourth downs when they
15:03
Speaker 1: were triving to win the game, going forward on fourth
15:06
Speaker 1: down to win the game, instead of kicking a tying
15:08
Speaker 1: field goal. Like every single thing they needed to go
15:11
Speaker 1: right went right. It's like that miracle cover, miracle win
15:14
Speaker 1: that the Patriots had, like unique like in the Super
15:17
Speaker 1: Bowl a couple of years ago in Saint Falcons. Everything
15:20
Speaker 1: we're right for the Titans. So now you've got a
15:22
Speaker 1: Titans team going on the road to Buffalo. It's gonna
15:25
Speaker 1: be very hot and Buffalo. Um wait, yeah, it's gonna
15:29
Speaker 1: be like eighty degrees this week. Alright for serious, we
15:34
Speaker 1: want to go to a game there in December. Read
15:36
Speaker 1: Action Network dot Com. Read Markey Mark he's got the
15:38
Speaker 1: uh the weather report. Um, but the Titans are just
15:43
Speaker 1: way overvalued right now. There's no way that Titans should
15:46
Speaker 1: be three, which insane that anyone is overvaluing the Tennessee Titans.
15:50
Speaker 1: They are because they had a huge win against the Eagles,
15:53
Speaker 1: and bookmakers know that people bet what they last saw,
15:56
Speaker 1: and what they're seeing is a a Bill's team that
15:58
Speaker 1: got blanked by the Packers and Aaron Rodgers who doesn't
16:01
Speaker 1: look right on one leg, and a Titans team that
16:04
Speaker 1: just came back in a miracle way against the Eagles
16:07
Speaker 1: who never should have been favored by that much when
16:09
Speaker 1: they were on the road against the Titans anyways, because
16:10
Speaker 1: the Titans in the covernent all the year, because their
16:12
Speaker 1: defense is really good. You know where people are underestimating
16:14
Speaker 1: Bills Mafia. Bill's mafia is gonna have a big impact
16:18
Speaker 1: in this game. Unless unless they're fucking playing, they're not
16:23
Speaker 1: gonna matter. But okay, Chad doesn't matter, Bills Mafia doesn't matter.
16:28
Speaker 1: You can't even you can't even jump on the tables anymore.
16:31
Speaker 1: If you don't think they're jumping through tables in Buffalo,
16:34
Speaker 1: you're out of your mind. Can we just why are
16:36
Speaker 1: we getting mad at each other? Like we agree on
16:38
Speaker 1: the game. It's going to be that kind of day.
16:40
Speaker 1: We were on the same side. We got again, We
16:43
Speaker 1: got the Bills. Georgina Jacksonville at Kansas City Chiefs by three.
16:50
Speaker 1: This one's easy by Jacksonville. I mean the jague is
16:52
Speaker 1: of course, thank you. This one's easy. It's a pass. Now,
16:56
Speaker 1: it's not this game is perfectly it's not perfectly handicapped. No,
17:00
Speaker 1: it's not. Jacksonville. Listen, you saw what what Denver was
17:06
Speaker 1: able to do last week against Kansas City. Their defense
17:10
Speaker 1: did slow Mahomes down. There's no doubt about it. Okay,
17:13
Speaker 1: particularly for three quarters. That defense absolutely slowed that machine down. Okay,
17:19
Speaker 1: and even his numbers for the whole game paled in
17:21
Speaker 1: comparison to the first three weeks. Jacksonville's defense is markedly
17:26
Speaker 1: better than Denver's defense. Also, their offense is better than
17:30
Speaker 1: Denver's offense. I can't believe I'm saying this about Blake Bortles,
17:33
Speaker 1: but he's actually having a really nice year. Okay, he's
17:36
Speaker 1: doing well. The running game in Jacksonville is better than
17:39
Speaker 1: the running game in Denver. And you saw Denver just
17:42
Speaker 1: run all over Kansas City with Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Okay,
17:47
Speaker 1: now you're gonna bring Leonard fo Net and t J.
17:49
Speaker 1: Yelden in a right So t J. Yelden, I'll take him.
17:52
Speaker 1: He's still better than those two. Jacksonville is a clearly
17:58
Speaker 1: better team than Denver, and you're going to give me
18:01
Speaker 1: three points. They saw what worked last week, what Denver did.
18:07
Speaker 1: What worked with Denver, Jacksonville has the players to do
18:10
Speaker 1: it even better. Again. This is this, This is honestly
18:19
Speaker 1: why not to give our producers credit. This is the
18:23
Speaker 1: genius of this podcast. Do you know why it is
18:28
Speaker 1: not easy for two people who are diametrically opposite sides
18:33
Speaker 1: of the way they handicapped games to come to a
18:35
Speaker 1: consensus on five picks each week. True, it's actually been
18:39
Speaker 1: pretty easy for us so far. No, it hasn't. We
18:43
Speaker 1: haven't reached the end of the slate without five. Well,
18:46
Speaker 1: we haven't gotten there without pain points. Like right now,
18:50
Speaker 1: you're I mean Jacksonville is catching three in this game. Yeah,
18:53
Speaker 1: I I understand the language of the point spread. So
18:56
Speaker 1: I mean what you say it? So what's part of
18:59
Speaker 1: this So part of this equation? Do you think Kansas
19:02
Speaker 1: City has a better game than they did against Denver.
19:05
Speaker 1: It's not about the better game, it's about is their value.
19:09
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't have anything because I think this
19:11
Speaker 1: game should be a pick. All right, let's make it.
19:13
Speaker 1: Maybe this should be a pick. Maybe we'll come back
19:19
Speaker 1: to it. It's fine, We're allowed to put a pin
19:20
Speaker 1: in it. You it's not gonna bote well for our
19:28
Speaker 1: honeymoon in Italy. We'll get to our next pick in
19:30
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Speaker 1: That's Keenland Select dot Com promo code select eighteen. Alright, Blackjack,
21:14
Speaker 1: let's get on with the show. Georgina Miami at Cincinnati
21:19
Speaker 1: Bengals by six and a half. Of course, Chad likes
21:22
Speaker 1: the Bengals every week. He's like the Andy Dalton of
21:24
Speaker 1: sports betting. Oh oh, that would imply that Chad's mediocre
21:31
Speaker 1: at sports betting, and he's not so. Um. If Georgina
21:37
Speaker 1: does not have a rip today calling me the middle
21:41
Speaker 1: Monster the middle Month, you didn't do that. Now, that
21:46
Speaker 1: was a mistake. I don't know how, because that's all
21:48
Speaker 1: I'm calling myself these days. Middle Months. Yeah, someone should
21:53
Speaker 1: have thought of that. Someone wake up Georgina right now
21:55
Speaker 1: and get her to record something fast. I know she's
21:58
Speaker 1: got twins and it's five thirty in the morning. Who
22:00
Speaker 1: care but wake her up? Uh that's said. I don't
22:05
Speaker 1: like the Bengals here. Too many points. Yeah, I agree,
22:08
Speaker 1: So they're Georgina. We're passing Baltimore at Cleveland, Ravens by three.
22:22
Speaker 1: The Browns are so the right side in this game.
22:26
Speaker 1: It's frightening. This is where the wise guy money is.
22:29
Speaker 1: I am telling you right now. I am telling you.
22:31
Speaker 1: I can look in the Action Network about the Browns.
22:33
Speaker 1: To me, it's about It's about the Ravens. The Ravens.
22:36
Speaker 1: The Ravens to me, are too unpredictable. One week you
22:40
Speaker 1: see this team come out on offense and they look
22:42
Speaker 1: like they are utterly inept and they can't do anything right.
22:45
Speaker 1: And then the next week they come out and then
22:46
Speaker 1: they'll put thirty five on the board. I don't know
22:48
Speaker 1: what I'm getting from week to week with this team. Also,
22:52
Speaker 1: their defense is pretty good, and it's gonna be the
22:55
Speaker 1: first really good defense that Baker Mayfield's face since he's
22:58
Speaker 1: only faced Oakland um and their defense is trash. I
23:03
Speaker 1: don't I don't love taking the Browns against that defense
23:07
Speaker 1: for the first time. Listen to me. This is a
23:09
Speaker 1: prime scenario. You're getting a home underdog in which their
23:13
Speaker 1: opponent is getting nearly of the action that I gave
23:18
Speaker 1: you a home dog with the Bills. This is I
23:20
Speaker 1: get it's a home dog, but it's still the Cleveland
23:23
Speaker 1: Browns and Hugh Jacksons still roaming those sidelines. Fine, fine,
23:27
Speaker 1: guess what what. We're not going to do it, but
23:29
Speaker 1: you know what what I'm going to bet it. I
23:31
Speaker 1: know you're going to bet it. Allegedly your attention, please,
23:35
Speaker 1: Chad is making a bet. Allegedly, there it is. It's true.
23:44
Speaker 1: Let's call him maybe because you might be able to
23:46
Speaker 1: swim you on. Let's see what else we got. We
23:48
Speaker 1: might not get anything better. This is what I decided.
23:52
Speaker 1: I decided that last one of the things that have
23:56
Speaker 1: been going wrong for us and generally for me, is
23:59
Speaker 1: that I was not sticking to my principles, and like
24:02
Speaker 1: I firmly believe in playing short home favorites and home underdogs.
24:06
Speaker 1: I think that's when like the Giants last week, and
24:09
Speaker 1: also the Titans, and also the Cardinals, uh and so,
24:15
Speaker 1: and also the Raiders, will you will get to the
24:18
Speaker 1: card you hold on, We'll get to the car if
24:20
Speaker 1: here's my point. My point is I'm not walking away
24:23
Speaker 1: from those teams. Now. That's it's like, you play all
24:26
Speaker 1: of those games because that's what you believe in. If
24:28
Speaker 1: you don't play those games, then you're missing out. All right,
24:34
Speaker 1: we'll keep it as him. Maybe let's move on. Now
24:38
Speaker 1: you can go Georgina Denver at New York Jets by one.
24:42
Speaker 1: So everything I said about Prince of Broncos, Um, I
24:46
Speaker 1: can't bet the Broncos there is all right. I jumped
24:51
Speaker 1: on this bad boy, and I think to when it opened,
24:53
Speaker 1: the fact that the New York Jets are favorite against
24:56
Speaker 1: the Broncos that did what they did against Kansas City.
24:58
Speaker 1: Iss it. My brain is in a pretzel right now.
25:02
Speaker 1: Are How are the Jets like still riding high on
25:08
Speaker 1: that Lions from I don't know. I really don't know. Denver, Denver,
25:13
Speaker 1: all day, Go ahead, Georgina, New York Giants at Carolina
25:21
Speaker 1: Panthers by seven, No, thank you, numbers two high. Atlanta
25:27
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh Steelers by three. I don't like it. I
25:31
Speaker 1: liked it when Steelers Steelers were at minus four. I
25:35
Speaker 1: don't like this in minus three. Yeah, I don't love
25:37
Speaker 1: it either. Um yeah, I'm with you. Next step to
25:42
Speaker 1: Regina Oakland at Los Angeles Charges, Charges by four and
25:46
Speaker 1: a half. I don't like it either. Hate this, hate
25:50
Speaker 1: both teams really do, really really do Los Angeles Rams
25:55
Speaker 1: at Seattle Rams by seven, no brainer ago, Like, we
26:02
Speaker 1: could talk about it for the benefit of the people,
26:04
Speaker 1: but I know what's going on in Seattle. I know
26:08
Speaker 1: they've lost it all Thomas, who had one of the
26:11
Speaker 1: greatest cart off moments did NFL history, when he's you know,
26:15
Speaker 1: waving the bird at the sidelines because he's injured. Um.
26:18
Speaker 1: I like the way his teammates rallied and supported him
26:22
Speaker 1: and didn't troll him. I know Michael Kendricks has been
26:25
Speaker 1: suspended indefinitely. I know this team's offensive line is trash,
26:30
Speaker 1: but I don't like any team that is as favorite
26:35
Speaker 1: in the public's mind as the Rams. Going on the
26:37
Speaker 1: road is a touchdown favor in a place where Russell
26:40
Speaker 1: Wilson can back to this game at any moment, toughest
26:42
Speaker 1: building in the NFL to play in, and that's that's
26:44
Speaker 1: what's going to happen. Russell Wilson is going to back
26:46
Speaker 1: to this in the fourth quarter. They're gonna be down
26:48
Speaker 1: by like seventeen going into the fourth and they're gonna
26:51
Speaker 1: cover this. Arizona at San Francisco is by four. I
26:55
Speaker 1: have to tell you this is my favorite game of
26:57
Speaker 1: the week. Me too. The Arizona Cardinals boom. I have
27:01
Speaker 1: met them on the money line. I love the Cardinals
27:05
Speaker 1: this week more than anything. I can imagine this pet
27:08
Speaker 1: this football season. I'll tell you why. Josh Rosen is why.
27:13
Speaker 1: If you look at the box score from Josh Rosen,
27:17
Speaker 1: it's it's good. It's not great, it's good. But then
27:20
Speaker 1: you go back and look at the film of his throws.
27:24
Speaker 1: Look at the incompletions. Okay, Josh Rosen had six dropped
27:30
Speaker 1: passes by his wide receiver's Chad, three of them by
27:33
Speaker 1: Larry Fitzgerald. And these weren't passes that were like Odell
27:37
Speaker 1: Beckham one handed catches. These were on the money, right
27:41
Speaker 1: on target. This kid was poisoned in the pocket under pressure.
27:46
Speaker 1: He threw darts all day. He was accurate, he had touched,
27:50
Speaker 1: he was able to throw the ball deep. David Johnson
27:53
Speaker 1: kind of looks like he's getting back into swing now
27:55
Speaker 1: with Arizona and is look, I mean, we've got c J.
27:59
Speaker 1: Bat Bethard Um at quarterback there. That just doesn't scare me, Like,
28:05
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but I thought that team was lacking in
28:08
Speaker 1: weapons when they had Jimmy Garoppolo. Although I will say
28:12
Speaker 1: c J played pretty well this past week. Are they
28:15
Speaker 1: asking Jimmy who in San Francisco? Maybe maybe controversy there.
28:21
Speaker 1: There will not be a where's Jimmy video? I don't know,
28:26
Speaker 1: Chad c J played pretty well, but either way, I
28:30
Speaker 1: think this Cardinals team is going to get their first
28:32
Speaker 1: win of the year this week. I love the Cardinals,
28:35
Speaker 1: Love the Cardinals, Love the Cardinals. I've watched a lot
28:39
Speaker 1: of the Cardinals the past two weeks. I had him
28:41
Speaker 1: plus six against the Bears. I had him Um plus
28:45
Speaker 1: three and a half against our plus four against the
28:50
Speaker 1: Seahawks last week. Their defense is starting to play a
28:54
Speaker 1: lot better. They're pressuring the ball. The pass rush is
28:57
Speaker 1: really strong. Uh, some of the things they weren't doing
29:00
Speaker 1: first couple of weeks they're starting to do. I love
29:04
Speaker 1: him him to, Like, who's my favorite quarterback in this draft?
29:07
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what I'll tell you. Last night I
29:10
Speaker 1: went out with a friend can't name him, and we
29:15
Speaker 1: were having a long conversation about right Now, if you
29:20
Speaker 1: could take you know, I'm ambarrass fan. If you could
29:22
Speaker 1: take Mitch Trobisky, Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield, I would
29:28
Speaker 1: I would choose between Rosen and Mayfield before Troubinsky. And
29:32
Speaker 1: this is true. Whisky coming off his six touchdown game
29:36
Speaker 1: against Tempay Buccaneers. Um, he like the guy looks like
29:42
Speaker 1: he just never thinks about the play before. He does
29:46
Speaker 1: not look rattled, He does not look like the moment
29:49
Speaker 1: is too big for him. Um, I really really am
29:53
Speaker 1: impressed in the action I've seen, Like he played like
29:56
Speaker 1: crap in that game. Like you're right, the stats did
29:59
Speaker 1: not look good in that game again Seahawks, and he
30:01
Speaker 1: still kept the team in the game and like was
30:03
Speaker 1: making the throws really hard throws and so um, those
30:06
Speaker 1: were not These weren't like little dump offs like you see, Josh.
30:10
Speaker 1: These are You've got to be accurate. You've got to
30:13
Speaker 1: have a strong arm. I'm all over this game, all
30:16
Speaker 1: over it. In fact, to come on the money line,
30:19
Speaker 1: your attention please, Chad is making a bet allegedly go
30:26
Speaker 1: money line. I don't have the courage for that money line.
30:29
Speaker 1: I talked madd into it. We did it together. He's weak.
30:34
Speaker 1: Now you gotta do it. Have a little faith man,
30:36
Speaker 1: live on the edge. This Cardinals team is winning this game.
30:40
Speaker 1: They are winning this game, winning it. I live the Niners, dake.
30:48
Speaker 1: They have beaten only the Detroit Lions, and that was
30:50
Speaker 1: with the Hall of Fame quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
30:55
Speaker 1: There's no way they're winning this game. Cardinals all day long.
30:59
Speaker 1: Before you know it. By the way, right now, we've
31:02
Speaker 1: got three games left and we've got we love the
31:05
Speaker 1: Seahawks plus seven. We love the Cardinals plus four, and
31:09
Speaker 1: we love the Bills plus three and a half. Like oh,
31:13
Speaker 1: and we also love Denver. Yeah. Interesting to me. On
31:19
Speaker 1: to the next Minnesota at Philadelphia Eagles by three. Do
31:24
Speaker 1: you think Carson Wentz looks a bit like Prince Harry?
31:26
Speaker 1: Take the Eagles? He does, But I want the Vikings.
31:30
Speaker 1: I don't want either. I don't blame you. I like
31:34
Speaker 1: I like Minnesota here, but I don't love it. No, no, nothing.
31:38
Speaker 1: I love Dallas at Houston Houston by three. Oh god, no.
31:43
Speaker 1: These teams are trashed to not doing it. It's really
31:46
Speaker 1: interesting to me. The Cowboys over the years have just
31:49
Speaker 1: been one of those teams that are a huge public
31:52
Speaker 1: team right and getting all getting action no matter what.
31:57
Speaker 1: In the Wednesday edition of The Favorite with Bob scucci um, which,
32:03
Speaker 1: by the way, black Jack, it's the most popular edition
32:05
Speaker 1: of the Favorites. I'm just telling you, why are you
32:09
Speaker 1: tell me that you've got some works to do? You
32:11
Speaker 1: don't have to bring some more. I'm showing up here
32:13
Speaker 1: drinking fucking to kill and coffee at eight in the morning.
32:17
Speaker 1: Well more do you want out of me? Yeah? Because
32:20
Speaker 1: I had stopped and get treats for you. I brought
32:23
Speaker 1: treats and I was here on time. You brought a
32:25
Speaker 1: tiny little box of munchkins. Okay, that's what you think
32:29
Speaker 1: of everyone in this room, Munchkins. I brought a dozen
32:32
Speaker 1: crispy cream doughnuts, various different flavors and patrone liqueur. Okay,
32:38
Speaker 1: that's what I think of people in the room. Munchkins.
32:42
Speaker 1: Hello in the fourth grade was a classy gesture. So
32:47
Speaker 1: we're passing on that. Oh. The point is The point
32:50
Speaker 1: is that Scooch was saying nobody nobody's interested in the
32:53
Speaker 1: Cowboys anymore. This team has no personality. There's nothing to
32:56
Speaker 1: root for on this team. Dude, How does Jason Garrett
32:59
Speaker 1: have a job. It's weird, right, how it's so weird?
33:04
Speaker 1: Washington at New Orleans Saints by six and a half?
33:08
Speaker 1: Lay it? Oh God, no, no, no, I will not
33:14
Speaker 1: lay it. You have to. You have to know the Redskins.
33:19
Speaker 1: The Redskins askins. Can I tell you about Alex Smith?
33:21
Speaker 1: They tell you about the Saints? They secretly stink. No
33:24
Speaker 1: they don't, Yeah they do, No, yeah they do, Yes,
33:27
Speaker 1: the Redskins. Now you're wrong. I'm not wrong. Here's what's
33:30
Speaker 1: gonna happen. This game is gonna be thirty seven seventeen.
33:37
Speaker 1: Uh an impasse. This Saints defense is horrendous. Okay, don't
33:46
Speaker 1: be fooled by what they did to the Giants. Are
33:50
Speaker 1: you in the team with Hotel Beckham and s Juan Barkley?
33:53
Speaker 1: Don't be fooled by that. They cannot get it right.
33:55
Speaker 1: Who are the Redskins best playmakers? By the way, Yeah,
33:59
Speaker 1: Adrian Peter, do we see what one now? Pierre Garsons
34:05
Speaker 1: in San Francisco, Let's pass, Let's just pass. We're we're
34:09
Speaker 1: on we're we're on such opposite sides on this game,
34:13
Speaker 1: and the truth is we should be going back to UM.
34:18
Speaker 1: I would say, here's what we're at right now, we're
34:20
Speaker 1: through all the games. Okay. We both like the Bills
34:23
Speaker 1: plus three and a half against the Titans. We both
34:26
Speaker 1: like the Broncos as one point dogs to the Jets.
34:29
Speaker 1: We both like the Seahawks at plus seven against the
34:32
Speaker 1: Rams at home. Love. We are in love with the
34:35
Speaker 1: Cardinals plus four against the San Francisco forty Niners. The
34:41
Speaker 1: maybe's we have right now. This is Jacksonville Cleveland our
34:46
Speaker 1: Jacksonville plus plus three or Cleveland plus three. Just think
34:51
Speaker 1: about that for one second. What you just said. This
34:53
Speaker 1: is Jacksonville plus three or Cleveland plus three. Now in
34:58
Speaker 1: your brain, I know, because I'm looking at you. Something
35:02
Speaker 1: goes off in your head and you know it's happening
35:05
Speaker 1: right now, but you don't want to admit it. There's
35:07
Speaker 1: something happening that's telling you this is ridiculous. I can't
35:11
Speaker 1: take Cleveland over Jacksonville. It is. It is hard to say, yes,
35:16
Speaker 1: I want the Browns against the Ravens instead of the Jaguars. Yep,
35:25
Speaker 1: as you pour yourself another you know what, it's terrible,
35:28
Speaker 1: but it's in front of me. Fine, I'm doing this.
35:36
Speaker 1: I'm doing this against all of my principles. Do you
35:38
Speaker 1: want the brown slap bad. Look, I just feel like
35:43
Speaker 1: I'm getting a home underdog. That's we're talking about. Feel
35:46
Speaker 1: you scream at me for that every week? Tell me,
35:50
Speaker 1: do you honestly believe the Browns have a better chance
35:52
Speaker 1: of covering than Jacksonville? I do, fine, don Let's take
35:56
Speaker 1: him Cleveland Bucket, Cleveland. Okay, all right, we're taking the Browns.
36:03
Speaker 1: Where is that game? I can't even find that one
36:04
Speaker 1: is on you, which means we will go one and
36:08
Speaker 1: four and that will be the one that covers. I
36:12
Speaker 1: don't mind the pressure, you know, why what do't you
36:15
Speaker 1: tell me? That's what I do. We took some trash
36:18
Speaker 1: this week. I just want to I just want you
36:21
Speaker 1: to realize we have the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals.
36:28
Speaker 1: We have some utter trash that we really are scrape
36:32
Speaker 1: in the bottom of the barrel. We are or are
36:35
Speaker 1: we sharp? Well? Either way, the knife needs to be
36:39
Speaker 1: sharp to scrape this barrel because we are deep in
36:42
Speaker 1: the trash. It's gonna be ugly, it's gonna be it's
36:46
Speaker 1: gonna be really really. This is one of those weekends
36:48
Speaker 1: where in the second quarter we're gonna be convinced We're
36:51
Speaker 1: losing every one of these games, and we're praying for
36:53
Speaker 1: back to our cover. I am going, I know, I
36:55
Speaker 1: know on Sunday, I'm going to look at the Browns.
36:57
Speaker 1: I'm like, I did what Yep, yep, that's gonna happen. Huh.
37:03
Speaker 1: And Jacksonville is gonna win by seventeen. Jacksonville is like
37:07
Speaker 1: going to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the year.
37:09
Speaker 1: They probably are. Maybe I'll bet the Jacks don't please.
37:14
Speaker 1: That makes me so angry. Ah. All right, that is
37:20
Speaker 1: our show for today. Thanks for listening to the Favorites.
37:23
Speaker 1: We have shows every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe to
37:27
Speaker 1: the Show and the Silent Bell on Apple Podcasts, Radio
37:32
Speaker 1: dot com or wherever you get your podcast black Jack.
37:36
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining me. We will see you Monday morning.
37:39
Speaker 1: I'll be with Jeff Schwartz and Paula Duca recapping the weekend,
37:42
Speaker 1: looking ahead two weeks six, making our nine team parlay,
37:47
Speaker 1: getting ahead of the week. This has been the Favorites
37:50
Speaker 1: from the Action Network. I am Chad Melman. How to
37:54
Speaker 1: you soon